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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ireland 2009 on: June 08, 2009, 11:45:05 am
So much for that!!! Ferris eliminated and now has 74,480 to transfer. Kelly ahead of Sinnott by 8,753 heading into the Shinner's disribution. Pat Magner on RTE Radio has a point about SF voters thinking of  Sinnott as too right wing for their tastes and labour more likely to pick up preferences than other parties do. Still, Sinnott may pick up on basis of the anti-Lisbon vote. Hard to know but will be interesting to see.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ireland 2009 on: June 08, 2009, 11:22:58 am
Looking at Sean Kelly's surplus, it's probably likely that less will transfer to a Cork candidate and so I'd be inclined to think that Ferris will remain ahead of Sinnott on the next count. Should she do so, it's much more likely that Sinnott's full eliminated vote will put Ferris over the top.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: When Sir Alex Retires.... on: June 03, 2009, 05:01:41 pm
It is quite clear by now that Fergie will only ever leave Old Trafford in a box so all this talk is mute.

Ha ha ha....could be closer to the truth than we think. And no, don't mean it in a Jock Stein way, like some Liverpool fan(clearly hopefully)suggested to me recently... SAF has had as many farewell tours as Sinatra. Long may it continue
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: When will... on: June 03, 2009, 04:56:37 pm
Looks like the knife plunging might be about to begin. Will be interesting to see how the results of both sets of elections pan out. Polly Toynbee is right; most Labour MPs know that the clunking fist is an electoral disaster and they could not win the next election with him. The results by Sunday night will bear that out. He is Cameron's greatest ally, being where he is.....but she is also right saying that Labour's taste for regicide is not as strong as the Tories'. Am not even thinking purely of Maggie's exit but also Betsygate and how IDS was rather ruthlessly disposed of.

Labour rarely changes horse TWICE in mid stream...but that loyalty may be tested over the next few days methinks.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: When Sir Alex Retires.... on: June 03, 2009, 04:47:48 pm
Back in 2002, the board were looking to appoint Sven, as Michael Crick of the BBC said in a now famous(or is it infamous?)documentary, which-along with other things mentioned in it- lead to Ferguson's boycott of the BBC. The same Sven who was on his way to the World Cup was still under contract to the FA-just as he was a few years later when Abramovich wanted him at Chelsea to replace Ranieri....

I can't help thinking that United ended up with the better part of the deal....As to who will replace? A few years ago I would have said O'Neill. Ottmar Hitzfeld was also being eyed for it. But I can't help thinking it will be the man who is under contract elsewhere to 2012, which is when SAF will probably go; and this man wants the job... Jose Mourinho.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ireland 2009 on: May 30, 2009, 08:58:51 pm
I usually say Tuh-ree-zah. But might just be me.

Not hot and also a Shinner.
Yes, I believe it's pronounced "Daughter of a convicted gun-runner"....what was that Obama said about lipstick and pigs?

I remember when Alessandra Mussolini looked easy on the eye too...
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 on: October 07, 2007, 06:53:54 pm
Ah, World Cups...last year it was Brazil that were going to the tournament and people thought that it was all they had to do to win it-just turn up......but they were turned over in the quarter finals by their old World Cup nemesis....FRANCE!!!

Curious symmetry, eh?

Pass for the try was still forward, though...    South Africa to win it. There is a certain symmetry there too...a team that takes it all when it's thrown at it but still holds out and grinds out the scores and wins. GERMANY?

And if it IS an Argentina-France rematch, don't be surprised if it ends the same as game one. Argentina were less intense tonight, unsurprisingly...they will be better when back to their usual position of underdogs.

As for England? Only two games from more immortality? Nah, not going to happen this time....I think!!
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ireland Election 2007 on: May 26, 2007, 05:09:24 pm
Sorry Jas but I just couldn't be bothered replying....nothing personal!!!!!

It's just that each time I try to do this it either times out or re-loads and I lose all I've written. Broadband is not making this easy for me to do this...

You've raised good points and we'll chat about this again!
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ireland Election 2007 on: May 26, 2007, 03:47:42 pm
Greetings all. Those of you based in Ireland may have noticed-as I have, and I've been following politics and elections here since '77...no kidding-that the TV coverage once again was well below the quality of radio coverage. Some counts were tlevised and shown several minutes afterwards and some vital counts missed while silly clumsy interviews with Joe Mchugh+ Olwyn Enright, for example were being shown....not impressed.

Further to what I mentioned about Bertie going at a time of his choosing, I noticed Vincent Browne last night talk about Ahern's desire to see through the full term and the point he made was very valid. It's not REALLY plausible for Ahern to serve a full term and then hand over to a successor. He said he would have to give a prospective new FF leader at least a year, possibly more to get ready and put their stamp on a new adminsitration, ready for election...so he can't really stay till 2012. Expect the speculation to start within 18 months as to when he'll go-which is why i suggested he will end up having to decide himself but within 3 years.

as to a likely combination? I've been mulling this over all day(thought Saturdays were for recreation-well, now that the football season is over we can't do that) and have figured that yes, the idea of a deal with the Greens backed up by Bev, Healy-rae and Gregory sounds most plausible. hard to know. I just can't see the PDs figuring. The idea of a party so utterly rejected by the electorate going back into a Coalition arrangement doesn't make sense. Has happened before though....

As regards what I said about Labour being old men in a hurry? Heard that being said to me by several political scientists last night. Body language from likes of Howlin indicated that they had seen alliance rejected and as if to add "You're on your own now Enda..."

We shall see. It will once again be a fascinating post-election shuffle....but the ball is very much in Bertie's court.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ireland Election 2007 on: May 25, 2007, 10:08:24 pm
Update prediction at 4.00 am...

think it'll be:

FF   78
FG  51
LAB 20
PD   2
GP   6
SF   4
OTH 5

A lot depending on counts in Dublin South Central, Dublin North East for final figures. Bad night for LAB and SF..calamitous for PD!!!!

Yet as Garret Fitzgerald said on RTE Radio, if Kenny did so bad in the debate how come FG gained 20 seats???.....strange


And the outcome? Watch for Rabbitte to exit stage left and Labour to look to go in with FF unless Greens can give them a better deal. If FF can tie down Labour(old men in a hurry now, all realising that their generation may not see ministerial mercedes again), then they cannot present themselves as part of a rainbow alternative next time round....

And watch for Bertie to slip away at a time of HIS choosing within 3 years. No Blair he! But then Cowen is no Gordon B
11  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: 2008 Hypothetical on: September 16, 2006, 05:32:25 pm
Yep, McCain-Huckabee too....maybe with a Dem Congress and Rep Senate. Consensus at last?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Movie Presidents. on: April 11, 2005, 02:04:12 pm
Henry Fonda in Fail Safe. The ORIGINAL one, with Dan O'Herlihy, Larry Hagman, Fritz Weaver, Walter Matthau and co.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Who from the other party would you make President on: October 23, 2004, 11:35:20 am
Democrat:  Lieberman,Bayh, Richardson, Landrieu...

Republican: Snowe, Specter, Chaffee, McCain....

Plenty of good on both sides....
14  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: Three non-issues (big ones in our country) on: October 23, 2004, 10:41:34 am
Abortion is not actually a non-issue in Ireland. A constitutional amendment in 1983, copper-fastening the 1861 Abortion Act, stated that the state recognised the right to life of the unborn child. This has since been further amended(referenda in 1992) allowing for access to information on abortion clinics in UK. This sought to redress a controversy caused by the infamous 'X' case when a 14 year-old girl who was pregnant through rape was denied the right to travel to Britain for a termination by the then Attorney-General who was alleged later to have been a Knight of Columbanus(Catholic Freemasons).

Until 1992, since Britain's 1967 Abortion Act, it had been estimated that 3,000 Irishwomen a year travelled to Britain for terminations while the state turmed a blind eye. After the 1992 referenda on right of information and travel, the state seems to accept this formally. End result? We don't have abortion in Ireland; we EXPORT it. A truly Irish solution.....and pro-life groups want this overturned. So yes it is still very much an issue.

As regards guns and gay marriage? Well that's a story for another occassion
15  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kerry's up in the EV- for a few days on: October 18, 2004, 01:17:37 pm
272-268....exceeds 538. Wouldn't be nit-picking but each vote could count, esp all W's likely ones in WV
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: George W Bush vs. Richard Nixon on: October 18, 2004, 01:12:36 pm
Nixon Now...more than ever!

What a contest!!!!
17  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: Who are the Republicans who won't vote for Bush? on: October 14, 2004, 06:31:09 pm
Think you could probably add Lincoln Chaffee to any possible list...
18  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: Do Bush and Kerry actually hate each other? on: October 13, 2004, 05:54:02 pm
a good Q....Or to put it another way, does a Skull and bones inductee from 1966 hate a Skull and bones inductee from 1968?
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re:Should Australia become a Republic on: August 02, 2004, 06:21:27 pm
Yes, they had a referendum in 1998(or was it 99?) but the choice they were offered was of a Republic where the President would be directly elected by Parliament(as in several European countries) and such referendum needed to pass the majority of States, which unsurprisingly it did not; many Republicans felt it was not an adequate offer from a Government which was Liberal(Howard) and not as committed to it as Labor(Keating 91-96) who had mooted it first....This issue WILL be back.....
20  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Reagan's Death - Effect on Bush's Ratings on: June 06, 2004, 12:59:33 pm
Rest in Peace, Ronald Reagan.. even from those who did not like your policies. A lot has been said on Network TV in the last 24 hours-quite rightly too-about his sense of humour and good natured attitude towards his domestic political opponents. In fact have just watched Meet The Press and seen Sen McCain discuss the similar partisan nature of Washington in the early 80's yet extol his ability to "get together with Tip O'Neill and share jokes" after the day's work was done....pretty much the EXACT SAME, verbatim as what John Kerry has said in his statement on Reagan's death. Coincidental or what?...hmmmmmm

As regards the effect overall probably not much in the long term, when all is said and done. Had it happened closer to November perhaps. It may also make people see how much Bush has failed in comparison to Reagan as being a uniter..or maybe not!
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:Battle of...??? on: May 27, 2004, 07:49:57 pm
Avril Lavigne, but like Jennifer Granholm she's Canadian born and couldn't be President, right?
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