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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump cancels the RNC's planned Hispanic Engagement Tour on: July 29, 2016, 10:41:30 pm
Campaigning in Mississippi!? Is he doing that bad there?

Gif

It's not outrageous to believe. The demographics could swing MS in the future, and Trump is no Generic R.

I've come to believe analyzing Trump's campaign movements in the way one would analyze a normal campaign's strategy is a fool's errand. Trump does things on a whim. He could be leading by +50 in Mississippi and he'd still send his son there for the hell of it, and then brag on Twitter when the rally had lower-than-expected turnout.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: pre-Democratic convention discussion LATEST: DWS won't speak due to email fallout on: July 24, 2016, 04:16:03 pm
Sarah McBride of the Human Rights Campaign will be the first transgender speaker at a major party convention.

http://www.hrc.org/blog/hrcs-sarah-mcbride-to-become-first-openly-transgender-person-to-speak-at-a/


Great news!


3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Donald Trump's convention speech? on: July 21, 2016, 10:41:03 pm
I expect "HS" to dominate this poll, but considering what expectations were, Trump did very well tonight. He exceeded expectations and was able to end a rough week on a high note.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Ted Cruz's convention speech on: July 20, 2016, 09:34:20 pm
Egoism.  If he's so principled, he should have skipped like Rubio, Paul, Haley, Kasich, etc. did.


this

I liked when he was booed off the stage.

also this
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How well will donald trump do with trans* people? on: July 19, 2016, 08:19:01 pm
Very poorly, though I guess there will still be some holdouts among us that'll vote R. I mean Trump'll do much better than Cruz would have but that's not saying much.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would have been the worst VP pick Trump could have made? on: July 18, 2016, 10:07:04 pm
Michael Flynn 100%
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 18, 2016, 03:25:38 pm
Where are you guys watching this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izmlveQPUe4
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the approval rating of Clinton or Trump if elected in December 2017 on: July 15, 2016, 01:59:51 pm
Trump's approval would probably be inflated compared to the numbers in this thread, considering he'd spend his first year or so fighting with Congress and calling Paul Ryan a loser on TV every day. Independents will love that.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A year ago today, did you expect the GOP nominee to be Trump? on: July 15, 2016, 08:09:03 am
No, I foolishly thought Jeb! until after the First Debate, I think. After that I had no idea. It didn't really set in for me that Donald would be the nominee until sometime in December.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How stoked are you for the "Night of Benghazi" at the GOP convention? on: July 14, 2016, 06:09:36 am
Very stoked (for the hilarity)
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Blue Firewall state will Trump do best in? on: July 13, 2016, 07:42:04 am
New Hampshire(sane, not TNVolunteer)

This, followed very closely by PA.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In the event of an electoral college tie, who does the House vote for? on: July 10, 2016, 01:49:01 pm
Neither. The vote is abandoned, and Ryan sworn in on inauguration day.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Donald Trump or Lyin' Ted do better against Hillary? on: July 10, 2016, 05:50:34 am
I can imagine there are many Obama-Trump voters out there, especially in the Rust Belt. Aside from a few oddballs like Santander, I can't imagine there are many Obama-Cruz voters.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Shots fired at BLM protest in downtown Dallas, TX on: July 07, 2016, 11:42:35 pm
Congratulations BLM, today you officially crossed the line and became associated with terrorism.

Ugh, here we go, I was hoping we could at least wait until the bodies are cold until people start pointing fingers.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Trump do in the first debate? on: July 05, 2016, 10:47:00 pm
Trump will almost certainly outperform expectations. Pretty much every presidential or vice presidential debate is either forgotten instantly or is remembered entirely for a few tremendous zingers that the "winning candidate" delivered. If there's anything I can say about Trump, it's that he's good at zingers, and good at making at ass out of himself for publicity.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe, in one word, your reaction if you wake up to this map on Nov 9th on: July 04, 2016, 09:23:04 pm
help!
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FiveThirtyEight launches full blown 2016 election forecast on: June 29, 2016, 01:53:10 pm
Why is Gary Johnson getting such large percentages in states where he isn't yet on the ballot, particularly in the now-cast model?
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's VP Choices (Week 2) on: June 28, 2016, 05:21:47 pm
Kaine probably. ugh.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of Corey Lewandowski becoming a CNN commentator? on: June 27, 2016, 09:24:02 am
Hilarious Move
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BERNIE ENDORSEMENT IMMINENT on: June 25, 2016, 08:41:13 pm
Looks like it's time to pack it in folks, Hillary is doomed. Cry
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Congressman's ad "Make America WHITE Again." Is this racism Trump's fault on: June 24, 2016, 10:32:34 pm
Partially Trump's fault in that he encouraged it. But I think it is becoming clear that racism and nationalism have been festering in the US and indeed many western nations for some time.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP courting LGBT voters on: June 22, 2016, 10:28:28 am
He has a lot of gay friends. He's probably the least homophobic GOP nominee ever.

lol
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Republican delegates go nuclear and dump Trump at the convention? on: June 14, 2016, 07:53:46 pm
As a Democrat, I'd love to have super-majorities in the House and Senate, so, yes. It'd be such an awful strategy.

Leaning yes at this point, but only if they could get someone other than Cruz through the convention.  Let's see where things are in early July.  It's far better for them to parachute in Ryan or Romney, lose by 3-5 and hold the house with a tied senate than to lose by 15 with Trump and give Democrats 2009-10 style majorities in congress.  But Trump could easily have this thing back to Clinton +3 by July, so we have to wait and see. 

I can't imagine the congressional races playing out anything other than worse if the GOP goes nuclear on Trump at the convention. At least if he were the nominee, incumbent politicians could disavow him to save face if things continue to go poorly. If Trump is nuked, suddenly every incumbent GOP politician has to decide how to spin "we thought half our voters were simply too stupid and racist to handle the responsibility of picking the nominee this year."
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) on: June 07, 2016, 07:39:02 pm
CNN: Bernie heading back to Vermont after tonight, then going to DC for a rally and "meetings."
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) on: June 07, 2016, 07:23:02 pm
Jeffrey Lord on CNN: "Everyone except me and Donald Trump are the real racists™."
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