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July 02, 2015, 09:40:17 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2015 on: July 01, 2015, 09:37:19 am
Walker has continually proven by now that he's not ready for prime time, and Christie, Jindal, Pataki, and Perry are all way past their prime. Carson and Fiorina are novelty candidates. Kasich and Graham only appeal to diminishing segments of the Republican Party primary electorate, and both of their preferred demographics (rust belt moderates, hawkish conservatives) could easily be won by an establishment candidate.

That leaves us with Bush, Cruz, Huckabee, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, and Trump. Out of that field, we have two establishment candidates (Bush, Rubio), four conservative candidates (Cruz, Huckabee, Santorum, Trump), and one libertarian (Paul).

Bush is still my best guess.
2  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition for an active ModAdmin on: June 30, 2015, 08:15:52 am
x Ody
3  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to ban CountryClassSF on: June 29, 2015, 05:28:14 pm
Seriously we re-banned Libertas for "responding too much" and "defending himself" and he actually contributed by having amazing mapmaking skills (even if he makes bad arguments and his lifestyle is a bit out there), yet this troll actively instigates on multiple threads and contributes absolutely nothing whatsoever other than constantly posting how much he hates himself and other gays, how gay people merely existing is "shoving it in everyone's face", and we're still tolerating this crap?

Yeah. I mostly just lurk these days but nearly every thread I read has been at some point derailed by CountryClassSF. After hearing afletich is taking a break partly because of this inane behavior I really don't see why this guy shouldn't be banned.

x Ody
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Obama be remembered in the top 10 of Presidents? on: June 28, 2015, 05:22:58 pm
No, his accomplishments are far too partisan and he didn't guide America through a crisis like the absolute top tier. In addition, almost all of his accomplishments are heavily dependent on how they look in 10-20 years, and he still stands the chance of being a bottom ten President is he ramrods through a deal with Iran that amounts to complete surrender.
Because the Great Recession never happened

The vast majority of Americans weren't personally affected by the great recession.

5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of Nate Silver on: June 27, 2015, 07:37:47 am
538 has suffered a definite dive in quality since leaving the NYT for ESPN.

Yeah. Nate Silver seems pretty intelligent and his analyses are usually pretty good, but the majority of FiveThirtyEight's content has become clickbait-with-numbers.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Supreme Court Issues Ruling On Same Sex Marriage Legalizing Marriage Nat. on: June 27, 2015, 07:20:03 am
This issue is not settled. 4-3 Traditional marriage wins because the advocates of marriage supremacy (gay marriage) have no honor in recusing over conflict of interest.


Absolutely correct.

This issue is not settled. 4-3 Traditional marriage wins because the advocates of marriage supremacy (gay marriage) have no honor in recusing over conflict of interest.

In that case the vote is 1-0 in favor of marriage equality as everyone besides Kagan has had a heterosexual marriage, creating a conflict of interest.

Nope. It's 4-3 Kagan and Ginsberg performed gay weddings. Marriage equality is one man one woman. You and the pro-SSM crowd advocate the destruction of religious liberty which must be preserved.

I don't care what you think.

We won, you lost. That's all that matters to me. Go cry about it.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CNN: NH: Hillary and Sanders in a tight race on: June 26, 2015, 11:13:05 am
Clinton seems to be on track for a Al Gore '00 performance in the Democratic primaries.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Supreme Court Issues Ruling On Same Sex Marriage Legalizing Marriage Nat. on: June 26, 2015, 09:26:11 am
A lot of Republicans look really foolish, but still get way more votes than they ought to.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders vs Jeb Bush (and other GOP candidates) on: June 20, 2015, 10:19:12 pm
Something like this..

Bush - 342
Sanders - 196

I'm not going to bother making a PV estimation, but it would probably be at least a 10 pt. margin in favor of Bush. States that Obama won by 10-20 pts. would be within 2-5 pts. for Sanders, due to more centrist Democrats reluctantly voting for Bush. Sanders' (relatively) far left policy positions would also allow Bush to run up the score in conservative strongholds like the Mountain West and the South.

Note: this is assuming a relatively normal campaign. Bush would probably have plenty of opportunities to paint Sanders as a far left loon, and if he capitalized on these opportunities, it could turn into a 1972-esque rout. 
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson:Let's talk less about anti-gay bigotry, more about anti-Christian bigotry on: June 14, 2015, 10:38:50 am
The belief that somehow American Christians are outnumbered, under siege, and fighting for their freedom to practice their religion is extremely insulting to Christians elsewhere in the world who are actually being persecuted.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2016 Gubernatorial Predictions on: June 11, 2015, 06:37:49 pm
The 'prediction graphs' for the 2016 gubernatorial predictions appear to be broken.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is New Hampshire fool's gold for Republicans? on: June 07, 2015, 10:08:37 am
If the national popular vote polling is looking more like 2000 or 2004 this time next year, then the GOP would have pretty fair chances in the state.

However, if the election looks more like 2008 (a 7-8 pt. victory for the Democratic candidate) or 2012 (a 3-4 pt. victory for the Democratic candidate), then forget about it. Another thing to keep in mind: NH has been about on par with Pennsylvania, the other 'fool's gold' Republican option, since 2004. If Republicans are winning NH they might just win Pennsylvania, too.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican candidate has the best chance against Clinton and why? on: June 06, 2015, 09:35:40 am
John Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio, in that order.

Rand Paul has a history of really bizarre statements and generally out-of-mainstream views that forces him to clarify his positions and play damage control a lot. For example, when he questioned the constitutionality of Title II of the Civil Rights Act during his Senate campaign, or more recently when he made some wacky comments about vaccination.

He has has the potential to play well against Hillary, but he also has the potential to be the next Barry Goldwater, by saying something wacky at the wrong time and allowing Hillary define him as a loon.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your number on the Kinsey Scale? on: April 21, 2015, 04:34:03 pm
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict the 2018 Senatorial Result on: April 17, 2015, 03:01:32 pm

  • Republicans pick up FL, ND, and WV as open seats after retirements, and pick up IN, MO, MT, and VA by defeating incumbent senators.
  • Democrats pick up VT after Bernie Sanders retires.
  • King sticks it out and wins an easy second term, still caucusing with the Democrats.

R +7

Senate composition looks something like 57 - 42 - 1, depending on how the 2016 elections go.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican's new nickname for Hillary Clinton on: April 16, 2015, 03:12:00 pm
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Hillary have had plastic surgery again before jumping in the race? on: April 12, 2015, 01:54:46 pm
Idiotic thread even for this place.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kansas passes law banning food stamp receipients from pools, movie theaters on: April 09, 2015, 01:13:33 pm
It's this kind of unnecessary spitefulness that needs to be purged from the Republican Party. Forget the morality of welfare and mooching and all the talking points. This plan (and other similar welfare reform proposal popping up in GOP states) simply make no sense from a fiscal conservative/small government stand point. The bureaucracy required to enforce this kind of intrusion and restriction on recipients will likely cost significantly more than if they just gave these people thousands of dollars in straight up cash.  It's pure slashing of the nose to spite the face.

It's almost as if the party at large has no special commitment to small government principles beyond the fact that people respond well to the rhetoric of small government conservatives.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Looks like Paul's the Nominee on: April 08, 2015, 03:03:18 pm
I thought Paul was going to fizzle out, but if Dick Morris is predicting Paul can't win then I think he definitely carries a few early states, at least.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where will Walker stand on mass surveillance? on: April 08, 2015, 12:18:44 pm
He would be in complete and total opposition, unless he was elected President. After his inauguration he would begin to 'evolve' on the issue and would be in favor of mass surveillance by the time the midterms came around.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will be the "big" Social Issues in 2050? on: April 07, 2015, 04:26:44 am
Probably something like this:

-The acceptance of LGBT individuals into mainstream American society. Outside of the South and the Mountain West, homosexuality and bisexuality (and other sexualities) will largely have mainstream acceptance. The more pertinent issue in the whole of the United States by 2050 will be the mainstream acceptance of transgender individuals. Unlike the battle for gay rights and acceptance, I doubt any one party will stand up for transgender acceptance, and it will instead be different coalitions and groups from within each party that slowly move things in the right direction.

-Are jobs a civil right for American citizens or a privilege granted by business? As more and more jobs start to be automated, the American unemployment/underemployment rates will steadily increase. Whichever party has "big money" on their side by 2050 will push for further automation to increase the productivity of the nation and the wealth of the upper classes. The other party will take on populist rhetoric and try to offer welfare or other forms of compensation to citizens who cannot find un-automated work.

-In the South to a lesser extent, and the Mountain West to a much greater extent, a woman's right to choose vs. right to life or other religious arguments against abortion.

-As others have said, genetic modification of the human body. However, I suspect this will be part of a larger divide between progressive, pro-technology groups and conservative, techno-phobic groups. The bioethics of human augmentation will be only one political issue that is debated; other possibilities might include the exploration and exploitation of outer space, the prevalence and morality of AR and VR devices, cloning of non-human organisms, genetic engineering, and perhaps even limits on human reproduction.

-Finally, in the vein of that last potential issue, should people have all the privileges they want, or should people be forced to make sacrifices for the greater good? Much of this will be in response to issues brought on by climate change, but I suspect these arguments will also start showing up whenever society begins to transition away from a fossil fuel powered economy. The "limits on human reproduction" issue may pop up here too, if overpopulation becomes a big enough issue in certain localities of the United States.

I'll go ahead and put an obvious disclaimer here, and say that this is just fun speculation. These issues are also quite economic, because Snowstalker and others are right in observing that most issues aren't just "social" or "economic" - most are a combination of both social and economic debates and consequences.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is Trevor Noah allowed to post hateful remarks? on: April 01, 2015, 08:54:56 am
TL;DR: Guy whose new job is to make fun of people for a living makes fun of people in his free time, too.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - April 2015 on: April 01, 2015, 08:38:46 am
I definitely think Scott Walker will win a fair amount of states in the 2016 primary, but I doubt he has enough establishment appeal to get the nomination. Barring any major dark horse entries, I suspect it'll come down to a Walker v. Bush race that ends in Bush's favor sometime around late March or late April.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: McDonnells found guilty on: September 04, 2014, 06:03:11 pm
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wal-Mart experimenting with nurse clinics in non-Medicaid expansion states on: August 30, 2014, 10:53:36 am
Most of the people who call themselves "nurses" aren't Registered Nurses (RNs), who are the only people who should really have the right to call themselves nurses. Nurse's aides, nursing/medical assistants, home health aides and others whose education amounted to a three month certificate from DeVry are not nurses.
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