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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs. Trump vs. 3rd party GOP on: May 30, 2016, 10:23:46 am


Clinton - 384, ~48% of the PV
Trump - 154*, ~40% of the PV
Mystery Man - 0*, ~8% of the PV

*give or take a faithless elector (or two).

Third Party Mystery Man (woman?) is a Generic R neoconservative hack dredged up from probably either the military or the business world. This (Dole 1996 levels) is their ceiling. Their best state is probably Utah, where they get like ~25% of the vote. Despite a lot of beltway hype, they never get above 15% or so in national polling in time for the debates, and thus are never invited. Still, it throws off Trump's momentum and the Republican Party looks like a divided mess going into the election, which hurts Trump's message. Disgruntled 'true conservatives' and moderate heroes eventually vote for this person or stay home, handing the election to Hillary.

Ultimately though, I agree with others here who say that they wouldn't need get nationwide ballot access. If this is a real plan that's getting off the ground, their #NeverTrump general election candidate will probably just camp out in Mormon Country and try to win UT, ID, and WY - to either elect Hillary in an even more embarrassing fashion for Trump, or as part of a sad and pathetic attempt at sending the election to the House.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the winner of the GE earn less than 50% of the PV? on: May 30, 2016, 10:00:51 am
Yes, something like 49-47 probably.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Listen to your gut feeling... on: May 28, 2016, 10:45:42 am
This November will see more than just a presidential election. It'll be a test to see how much of the voting population is intellectual and how much isn't.

Prepare to be disappointed if your litmus test for national greatness is how "intellectual" its population is.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Listen to your gut feeling... on: May 27, 2016, 07:49:24 pm
I see it either being Clinton or Trump in a squeaker, or Trump in a landslide after an October Surprise that spells doom for the Democrats. Right now my gut feeling is Trump in a squeaker, but probably with an inflated EC count ala Nixon 1968.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie says 'Game on' to debate with Trump. on: May 27, 2016, 05:20:38 pm
It's a fairly smart strategy. Why bother debating the guy who won't be the nominee? If Trump performed well against Bernie or came out even, it would've just given Bernie extra publicity. If Trump performed poorly he would've looked like a complete fool losing to a guy who's already lost.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN: State Department report says Clinton violated agency rules on: May 25, 2016, 03:14:09 pm
She broke a "rule" not a "law".  Nothing is gonna happen.

Fine, but the optics look real bad.

Didn't many people already think she broke some sort of rule or law by doing having a private email server? It's not like this wasn't a widely used talking point many months ago.

So, the optics already looked bad and this doesn't make it much worse? This is gonna be a rough year.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN: State Department report says Clinton violated agency rules on: May 25, 2016, 11:36:56 am
She broke a "rule" not a "law".  Nothing is gonna happen.

Fine, but the optics look real bad.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Renegade Jew Strikes Again on: May 22, 2016, 05:52:02 am
What's wrong with this guy and the other Never Trump people? Don't they see that opposing Trump is a sure way to have Hillary elected?

That's the idea. The Never Trump crowd is smart. A third party run would be designed to either elect Hillary (without going forward with the political suicide of publicly supporting her) ...or throw the race to the House so that they can get past that pesky 'election' thing and install an establishment yes-man as President.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Donald Trump supporters react to a Hillary Clinton win in the fall on: May 20, 2016, 02:33:38 pm
Other: All of the Above.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: In which country is there more respect for freedom? USA or Norway? on: May 19, 2016, 11:07:31 pm
The answer is obvious.  It's the one where being gay is not an issue, where they don't lock people up for 25 years for simple drug possession, where freedom of speech and freedom of religion are truly understood, where women's reproductive rights can be taken for granted, etc.

Freedom isn't all about lasseiz-faire economics and guns.

Literally every single European country has worse freedom of speech than us.  We don't punish people for having terrible opinions, like Holocaust denial.

Is this sarcasm or do you really think the height of freedom is being able to say "the holocaust never happened"?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver eats crow on: May 18, 2016, 07:53:49 pm
Is he still defending using "endorsement points"? What a joke.

What's the problem with endorsement points?


The idea that 'endorsement points' were at all influential on the results of the primaries has surely been discredited by now.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP search news LATEST: Carson leaks Trump's list? on: May 17, 2016, 07:56:03 am
I'm pretty confident that Scott Brown is going to be Trump's pick. I saw Manafort on CNN a couple days ago and he seemed awfully bullish on how strongly Trump was going to perform in New England.

Brown would fit into Trump wanting someone with legislative experience, and Brown himself has morphed into a more 'Trumpian' candidate on issues like immigration over the past couple months. He could stay on message as Trump's running mate as well as be reassuring to the GOPe.

Expect Trump to give a very "strong" position on abortion every time he's asked about it, because his VP pick is likely to be a disappointment to socons.

Eh? Trump will overperform in New England by selecting a running mate who lost in New England twice?
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama mandates All Public Schools to let Trans students use bathroom of choice on: May 17, 2016, 07:49:33 am
Guys, bigots aren't going to be convinced by a picture of a trans man and explanations of how he's gonna have to use the women's room now. They don't care. The goal is not to keep trans women out the lady's room (as should be obvious, the NC law is an unenforceable farce), it is to ensure that transgender people are excluded from society.

Society at large will become accepting within a generation or so, hopefully. But the pro-HB2 people who actually care about this issue deeply are the type of people who just wish we'd go away. I guess I am happy that Obama sent this mandate out there, but it will surely give bigots and hate-mongerers more ammunition. A sad state of affairs we are in.

This entire policy is driven by men who fantasise about what they might do if they had access to female restrooms. Dirty f-ckers.

So you side with those of us who want to keep our wives and kids safe?

So, these people are intrinsically a danger? 

The narrative for JCL seems to be "us v. 'the rapists'." So, yeah.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which convention will have more chaos? on: May 14, 2016, 08:11:55 pm
DNC will have more chaos on the inside, RNC will have more on the outside.

Although I could see Cruz's acolytes trying to start a fight over the platform.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Evangelicals feel abandoned after TRUMP's ascent to being the nominee on: May 09, 2016, 08:16:43 pm
Good! One step closer to eliminating the religious right's sick and twisted influence on American politics once and for all. Smiley
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How should conservatives re-evaluate their movement after this cycle? on: May 09, 2016, 08:13:18 pm
^^ With the nomination of TRUMP, there is clear demonstration that the founding fathers were right when they said the american people should not be blindly trusted to pick their own presidents. Superdelegates aren't the goal here, because this shouldn't be a group of people that the candidates are actively trying to 'woo' throughout the process, and because superdelegates can become powerless if the pledged delegate margin is large enough. Instead this should be a certain or group of highly trusted person(s) with power that is limited in scope, but absolute in the small amount of "territory" that it can be allocated in.

Or in other words.. "The people cannot be trusted to rule themselves wisely, so a council of wiser people should be given the power to 'help' the people choose who to rule."

What a great way to make sure that dastardly demagogue Donald Trump doesn't turn America into a fascist nightmare!
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post your TRUMP victory maps on: May 04, 2016, 12:13:01 pm


Trump/Hostage - 296 (maybe one less if there's a #NeverTrump faithless elector)
Clinton/Castro - 242
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When will Trump announce that his candidacy has been a big joke? on: May 04, 2016, 11:55:09 am
Well, he can't exactly announce it now that he's got a longshot chance to win. But I'm sure it will be a great icebreaker for diplomatic meetings over the next 4 years should he win.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of the drop-outs? CRUZ edition! on: May 04, 2016, 08:03:06 am
Sparing us from this monster is probably the best thing Trump has done so far.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinon of the Drop-Outs: Ted Cruz (Now with Both and Neither as Options) on: May 03, 2016, 09:16:02 pm
4 Atlas users have sold their souls to Lucifer. Sad!
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win at least one of these states? on: April 28, 2016, 07:21:06 am
Honestly, if he wins Indiana, he probably wins all of these states.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What happens if at the RNC on: April 28, 2016, 07:20:09 am
The Cruz supporters bound to Trump on the first ballot vote for Cruz anyway and throw him the nomination?

Complete pandemonium. Hillary has a good shot at breaking 400 electoral votes, maybe even closer to 450-500.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Lyin' Ted regret stealing Colorado now? on: April 25, 2016, 12:13:36 am
I doubt Ted Cruz has ever felt "regret", or any of these other strange human emotions of which you speak.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill Clinton SLAMS Millenials! on: April 21, 2016, 03:32:04 pm
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz: Trump wants big burly men in the bathroom with little girls on: April 21, 2016, 03:27:18 pm
What must be done must be done.

Watching the #NeverTrump movement lose any moral highground is incredibly satisfying, honestly.

He isn't wrong, go to the bathroom which you have the genitals for not what you want.

It's not about what we "want", it's about who we are. It's nice to see that Trump is an FF on this issue, at least for now.
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