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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's VP Choices (Week 2) on: June 28, 2016, 05:21:47 pm
Kaine probably. ugh.
27  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of Corey Lewandowski becoming a CNN commentator? on: June 27, 2016, 09:24:02 am
Hilarious Move
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BERNIE ENDORSEMENT IMMINENT on: June 25, 2016, 08:41:13 pm
Looks like it's time to pack it in folks, Hillary is doomed. Cry
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Congressman's ad "Make America WHITE Again." Is this racism Trump's fault on: June 24, 2016, 10:32:34 pm
Partially Trump's fault in that he encouraged it. But I think it is becoming clear that racism and nationalism have been festering in the US and indeed many western nations for some time.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP courting LGBT voters on: June 22, 2016, 10:28:28 am
He has a lot of gay friends. He's probably the least homophobic GOP nominee ever.

lol
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Republican delegates go nuclear and dump Trump at the convention? on: June 14, 2016, 07:53:46 pm
As a Democrat, I'd love to have super-majorities in the House and Senate, so, yes. It'd be such an awful strategy.

Leaning yes at this point, but only if they could get someone other than Cruz through the convention.  Let's see where things are in early July.  It's far better for them to parachute in Ryan or Romney, lose by 3-5 and hold the house with a tied senate than to lose by 15 with Trump and give Democrats 2009-10 style majorities in congress.  But Trump could easily have this thing back to Clinton +3 by July, so we have to wait and see. 

I can't imagine the congressional races playing out anything other than worse if the GOP goes nuclear on Trump at the convention. At least if he were the nominee, incumbent politicians could disavow him to save face if things continue to go poorly. If Trump is nuked, suddenly every incumbent GOP politician has to decide how to spin "we thought half our voters were simply too stupid and racist to handle the responsibility of picking the nominee this year."
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) on: June 07, 2016, 07:39:02 pm
CNN: Bernie heading back to Vermont after tonight, then going to DC for a rally and "meetings."
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) on: June 07, 2016, 07:23:02 pm
Jeffrey Lord on CNN: "Everyone except me and Donald Trump are the real racists™."
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump the next Barry Goldwater? on: June 07, 2016, 03:37:30 pm
Ultimately, I suspect this current chaos is too good to be true. Things will probably consolidate over the next few weeks. But the GOP seems determined to lose in a landslide with or without Trump, so who knows?

Of course not. He is the next Ronald Reagan.

lol
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will Bernie blame his losses on tonight? on: June 07, 2016, 03:23:12 pm
He will just give a victory speech despite losing nearly every state. Same tactic we've seen all year from various losers.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump campaign: Female Judges might not be capable of judging Trump either on: June 07, 2016, 01:45:26 am
Time to nuke him at the convention? Really seems like he's a Democratic plant....

How do you nuke him when he has all the pledged delegates he needs to win?

Unpledge all the delegates.

LOL. Democrats should really shoot for big money if this happens. Maybe we can break 450 EVs and retake the House.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump straight-out said "I'm racist, deal with it." ... on: June 06, 2016, 06:59:32 pm
I'd be glad he was finally honest about it so Democrats could hammer him with the quote, and somewhat respect that he had the balls to directly admit it.

Have we really set the bar this low?
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: How much more damaged is Trump re Mexican Heritage comments ? on: June 06, 2016, 04:09:53 pm
Slightly, I guess? The sad reality is nobody except us nerds will remember this by the time the conventions are over.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Cook's Electoral College ratings? on: June 06, 2016, 01:55:19 pm
Freedom Map if only for showing NH as toss-up.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most likely tie in the 2016 election? on: June 06, 2016, 01:41:46 pm
I voted #1.

This is more likely than any of those four, in my opinion:

41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Brian Schweitzer on: June 02, 2016, 10:59:27 pm
Schweitzer would at least be a somewhat inspired VP choice (unlike a certain Virginian senator), but no, he would do nothing to bring MT closer to the Hillary column.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: David French is Kristol's pick for third party on: May 31, 2016, 05:52:53 pm
So how does this affect the race?

Not at all.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs. Trump vs. 3rd party GOP on: May 30, 2016, 10:23:46 am


Clinton - 384, ~48% of the PV
Trump - 154*, ~40% of the PV
Mystery Man - 0*, ~8% of the PV

*give or take a faithless elector (or two).

Third Party Mystery Man (woman?) is a Generic R neoconservative hack dredged up from probably either the military or the business world. This (Dole 1996 levels) is their ceiling. Their best state is probably Utah, where they get like ~25% of the vote. Despite a lot of beltway hype, they never get above 15% or so in national polling in time for the debates, and thus are never invited. Still, it throws off Trump's momentum and the Republican Party looks like a divided mess going into the election, which hurts Trump's message. Disgruntled 'true conservatives' and moderate heroes eventually vote for this person or stay home, handing the election to Hillary.

Ultimately though, I agree with others here who say that they wouldn't need get nationwide ballot access. If this is a real plan that's getting off the ground, their #NeverTrump general election candidate will probably just camp out in Mormon Country and try to win UT, ID, and WY - to either elect Hillary in an even more embarrassing fashion for Trump, or as part of a sad and pathetic attempt at sending the election to the House.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the winner of the GE earn less than 50% of the PV? on: May 30, 2016, 10:00:51 am
Yes, something like 49-47 probably.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Listen to your gut feeling... on: May 28, 2016, 10:45:42 am
This November will see more than just a presidential election. It'll be a test to see how much of the voting population is intellectual and how much isn't.

Prepare to be disappointed if your litmus test for national greatness is how "intellectual" its population is.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Listen to your gut feeling... on: May 27, 2016, 07:49:24 pm
I see it either being Clinton or Trump in a squeaker, or Trump in a landslide after an October Surprise that spells doom for the Democrats. Right now my gut feeling is Trump in a squeaker, but probably with an inflated EC count ala Nixon 1968.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie says 'Game on' to debate with Trump. on: May 27, 2016, 05:20:38 pm
It's a fairly smart strategy. Why bother debating the guy who won't be the nominee? If Trump performed well against Bernie or came out even, it would've just given Bernie extra publicity. If Trump performed poorly he would've looked like a complete fool losing to a guy who's already lost.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN: State Department report says Clinton violated agency rules on: May 25, 2016, 03:14:09 pm
She broke a "rule" not a "law".  Nothing is gonna happen.

Fine, but the optics look real bad.

Didn't many people already think she broke some sort of rule or law by doing having a private email server? It's not like this wasn't a widely used talking point many months ago.

So, the optics already looked bad and this doesn't make it much worse? This is gonna be a rough year.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN: State Department report says Clinton violated agency rules on: May 25, 2016, 11:36:56 am
She broke a "rule" not a "law".  Nothing is gonna happen.

Fine, but the optics look real bad.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Renegade Jew Strikes Again on: May 22, 2016, 05:52:02 am
What's wrong with this guy and the other Never Trump people? Don't they see that opposing Trump is a sure way to have Hillary elected?

That's the idea. The Never Trump crowd is smart. A third party run would be designed to either elect Hillary (without going forward with the political suicide of publicly supporting her) ...or throw the race to the House so that they can get past that pesky 'election' thing and install an establishment yes-man as President.
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