Campaigning in Mississippi!? Is he doing that bad there?
It's not outrageous to believe. The demographics could swing MS in the future, and Trump is no Generic R.
I've come to believe analyzing Trump's campaign movements in the way one would analyze a normal campaign's strategy is a fool's errand. Trump does things on a whim. He could be leading by +50 in Mississippi and he'd still send his son there for the hell of it, and then brag on Twitter when the rally had lower-than-expected turnout.
Trump's approval would probably be inflated compared to the numbers in this thread, considering he'd spend his first year or so fighting with Congress and calling Paul Ryan a loser on TV every day. Independents will love that.
Trump will almost certainly outperform expectations. Pretty much every presidential or vice presidential debate is either forgotten instantly or is remembered entirely for a few tremendous zingers that the "winning candidate" delivered. If there's anything I can say about Trump, it's that he's good at zingers, and good at making at ass out of himself for publicity.