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February 08, 2016, 01:58:32 pm
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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump will 'probably sue' Iowa over caucus results on: February 03, 2016, 06:32:38 pm
Which happens first

1) Trump sues Cruz for not being a citizen

2) Carson physically assaults Cruz

3) Trump sues Cruz for 'stealing votes'

All of the above will happen in one big spectacle - the Donald knows how to get the media's attention, after all!
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results on: February 02, 2016, 02:48:11 am
Average error compared to the caucus results (+5 means I overestimated Trump, -4 means I underestimated Sanders, etc)

Republican caucuses
29%  Trump (+5)
24%  Cruz (-4)
21%  Rubio (-2)
10%  Carson (+1)
  5%  Paul (~)
  4%  Huckabee (+2)
  2%  Bush (-1)
  2%  Santorum (+1)
  1%  Fiorina (-1)
  1%  Christie (-1)
  1%  Kasich (-1)

Democratic caucuses
54%  Clinton (+4)
45%  Sanders (-4)
  1%  O'Malley (~)

Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, and O'Malley drop out. Huckabee endorses Trump.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 02, 2016, 01:09:57 am
What a joke!
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who's more electable in a general... on: February 01, 2016, 11:53:28 pm
Can you imagine an Obama/Obama/Cruz voter?

I sure can't.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Iowa caucus bellwether counties on: February 01, 2016, 11:31:20 pm
How many Counties are left now as bellwethers?


If no counties switch away from Cruz, or to Cruz as the last few results come in:

Benton
Crawford
Franklin
Warren
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 08:39:33 pm
NYT has O'Malley with literally 1 vote.
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 08:03:32 pm
86% decided earlier than the last few days in the Democratic entrance poll according to CNN.
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 08:01:03 pm
3 man race on the GOP side between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio according to CNN.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson drop out watch thread? on: February 01, 2016, 07:51:47 pm
Sounds like he is done.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 07:48:21 pm
Maybe Carson's just sleepy?

He isn't going to South Carolina either, apparently.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 07:46:25 pm
Cnn has just announced that Carson will be taking a break after iowa no matter what. Sounds like end to the campaign

Yeah, he also is apparently giving a speech later tonight (fairly early on, too) regardless of the results. I'm guessing he drops out tonight.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 07:42:43 pm
CNN says that turnout for the Democrats is also pretty high. Lots of youngs and some first time caucus-goers.
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 01, 2016, 07:40:55 pm
Hi folks. I am checking back in. How is everything going to this point? Do we have any valuable information as of yet?

Looks like turnout is yuge and there are many first time caucus-goers on the GOP side.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results on: January 31, 2016, 11:25:23 pm
Republican caucuses
29%  Trump
24%  Cruz
21%  Rubio
10%  Carson
  5%  Paul
  4%  Huckabee
  2%  Bush
  2%  Santorum
  1%  Fiorina
  1%  Christie
  1%  Kasich

Democratic caucuses
54%  Clinton
45%  Sanders
  1%  O'Malley

Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, and O'Malley drop out. Huckabee endorses Trump.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What TV Network Will You be watching for the caucuses on: January 31, 2016, 09:45:23 pm
CNN, NY Times, and maybe Huff Post. I'll be on Atlas until it crashes.
41  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is Obama gay? 100% confirmed on: January 31, 2016, 06:26:03 pm
LOL....this forum is becoming a complete joke at this point.

"becoming"?
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BERNIE says that "Hillary Clinton WILL be the problem" on: January 31, 2016, 04:20:46 pm
One of the saddest parts of this campaign has been watching Bernie slowly become a standard politician.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rand Paul win Jefferson County, IA? on: January 31, 2016, 03:08:19 pm
Trump or Cruz probably win it this time, but I wouldn't be surprised if Paul got second place in the county.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gilmore's goal is to get at least one vote in Iowa on: January 31, 2016, 01:37:18 am
Quote
If I get one vote, frankly, in Iowa, Ill consider it a victory, the Gilmore said on the Iowa radio show Mickelson in the Morning. A single vote, Ill consider it a victory.

The most important thing here is that he is given an article in front of his name: he is no longer simply Jim Gilmore, he is THE Gilmore.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump actually have a harder time as the field narrows? on: January 31, 2016, 12:28:48 am
Generally, yes. But it really depends on the candidate/s. Can you imagine if the field narrows (somehow) to Trump and Bush?
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Iowa order of finish on: January 31, 2016, 12:13:23 am
Dems:

1. Clinton
2. Sanders
3. O'Malley

BOLD!

Republicans
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Rubio
4. Carson
5. Paul
6. Huckabee
7. Bush
8. Santorum
9. Christie
10. Kasich
11. Fiorina
12. Gilmore

Only Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson make it into double digits.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: **DMR final poll livestream and pre-game megathread** 6:45 PM EST showdown! on: January 30, 2016, 04:52:42 pm
Is this poll generally very accurate of how Iowa will vote? I'm not too familiar with it all and curious since everyone is going nuts over it.

Final 2012-R Selzer Poll: (final results)
24% (25%) Romney
22% (21%) Paul
15% (25%) Santorum
12% (13%) Gingrich

Final 2008-R Selzer Poll: (final results)
32% (34%) Huckabee
26% (25%) Romney
13% (13%) McCain
  9% (10%) Paul

Final 2008-D Selzer Poll: (final results)
32% (35%) Obama
25% (30%) Clinton
24% (31%) Edwards
  6%   (2%) Richardson

So unless there is a last minute surge out of nowhere by a candidate from the back of the pack, the results of this poll should be a very good indicator of what will happen on Monday night.

48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz camp trying to intimidate people into caucusing. on: January 30, 2016, 04:32:04 pm
Not odd at all, Cruz is a creep and it's totally in character for him.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will drop out after Iowa? on: January 30, 2016, 04:25:21 pm
Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum. I guess Martin O'Malley and Jim Gilmore might drop out, too.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How excited are you for the Iowa caucuses? on: January 30, 2016, 04:19:39 pm
Getting there. By Monday morning I will be in FULL HYPE MODE.
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