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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is Trevor Noah allowed to post hateful remarks? on: April 01, 2015, 08:54:56 am
TL;DR: Guy whose new job is to make fun of people for a living makes fun of people in his free time, too.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - April 2015 on: April 01, 2015, 08:38:46 am
I definitely think Scott Walker will win a fair amount of states in the 2016 primary, but I doubt he has enough establishment appeal to get the nomination. Barring any major dark horse entries, I suspect it'll come down to a Walker v. Bush race that ends in Bush's favor sometime around late March or late April.
28  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: McDonnells found guilty on: September 04, 2014, 06:03:11 pm
29  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wal-Mart experimenting with nurse clinics in non-Medicaid expansion states on: August 30, 2014, 10:53:36 am
Most of the people who call themselves "nurses" aren't Registered Nurses (RNs), who are the only people who should really have the right to call themselves nurses. Nurse's aides, nursing/medical assistants, home health aides and others whose education amounted to a three month certificate from DeVry are not nurses.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The most close race will be in... on: August 29, 2014, 10:44:34 am
Right now, I'd say Iowa. North Carolina or Colorado would be second, although I imagine Colorado will have stabilized for one candidate or another by November.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Waiting for the 538 real model about Senate and Governor races... on: August 28, 2014, 06:24:14 pm
Personally, I find 538's current set articles way more interesting than yet another update of "who do we think is gonna win today!!!!1"

Agreed.  The World Cup series was fantastic.

538 needs a sports section, and it definitely needs a Life/Science section.


They have an affiliation with ESPN--even though most of the FiveThirtyEight articles probably fly over the heads of a large share of ESPN's viewership.

Their sports section could probably be stronger--Nate first got people's attention by developing PECOTA, and has repeatedly exhibited that he's incredibly knowledgeable about baseball. However, their NFL season previews are pretty thorough, as was their article about Tim Duncan's value to the Spurs over the course of his career.

But, articles about measuring the speed of NFL teams, and then going on to say that it really isn't all that important, is kind of a head-scratcher.

I know 538 has a sports section.  I was just praising the new 538 format in which it covers more than just politics.

I do like that FiveThirtyEight is currently covering more than just politics - I also really loved their World Cup series - but I'd much prefer they release an official model similar to the one they had back in 2012. The unscheduled updates on the midterms are a little underwhelming to be honest.
32  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many reported/moderated/infacted posts/points do you have? on: August 27, 2014, 07:39:44 pm
1 reported, 0 moderated, 0 infraction points.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can you vote in the 2014 Senate elections? on: August 27, 2014, 10:27:43 am
This is my first election in which I am eligible, actually! Sadly, the only elections I'd be eligible to vote in are a House race uncontested by any credible candidates, and Warner vs. Gillespie.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Waiting for the 538 real model about Senate and Governor races... on: August 27, 2014, 08:16:00 am
This new 538 is really made of fail. And I say this as one of Nate's earliest fans.
Are you only saying that because it doesn't show Democrats to have an advantage?

I think he's saying that because the new 538 has still not launched their official model of the 2014 midterm elections - yet they still have time to run articles about the statistical accuracy of tarot readers and the effects of binge-watching the Simpsons on the human brain.
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Millennials Up For Grabs? on: August 02, 2014, 08:59:33 am
So what is everyone's definition of the Millennial Generation? Just so we know each other's viewpoint.

I personally ascribe to the 1982 starting point view, but think the end year is more 2000 - 2005.

And what are we calling the generation after?

I feel that the Millennial generation began in the early 80's (so 1982 is definitely a good year to start) and between the late-90's and 9/11.

Some are referring to the generation after the Millennials as the Homeland generation (from the Strauss-Howe theory) or Generation Z. Either one would work.

I'll generally agree with a start date of 1982, and suggest 2001 as an end-date.

With that in mind, the Reagan/Bush cohorts (1982-1991) are almost certain to be at least leaning Democratic for the foreseeable future. These are the "young voters" that are so often referenced as being heavily Democratic. Despite being born under the most popular Republican administrations in the modern era, the major political figures of their childhood were President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore. Assuming that most people start to became politically aware and political active in their teenage years, this would mean that the first election that many Reagan/Bush cohorts truly paid attention to was the election of 2000. Indeed, some of the oldest '80s children would have been eligible to vote in 2000. The animosity that the controversy of that election generated towards George W. Bush in the minds of many younger voters was then certainly only exacerbated by the rest of his administration, which proved exceptionally unpopular.

The combination of the Early Millennials entering their teenage years - their first politically active years - with the unpopular Bush administration ultimately led most of them to vote strongly for then-Senator Barack Obama in 2008, an election in which nearly all of them were eligible to vote. This, along with Obama's successful re-election campaign in 2012, probably sealed the Democratic lock on these voters.

So then comes the matter of the Late Millennials, or the Clinton cohorts (1992-2001). I am actually one of them, so my analysis of them may be biased slightly towards my own experience. However, based on their political history, I have to agree that they'll probably end up being politically malleable compared to their older counterparts. The Late Millennials were born either under the last days of President George H. W. Bush, or during the Presidency of Bill Clinton, and in all likelihood, they don't have many memories of either president. The first election that most of them were old enough to experience in a politically aware context was the election of 2008, when Barack Obama won in a wave of popular support. In 2012, most of them seem to have voted for Barack Obama - it's difficult to tell, as most sources only display the data for 18-24 year olds, or 18-29 year olds. However, considering Barack Obama's declining popularity, and the current ineffectiveness of congress and government in general, they are probably more politically independent than other age groups that have already been won over. We must also remember that the majority of the Late Millennials haven't even voted in a Presidential election yet. Those born from 1995-1998 will be voting for a Presidential candidate for the first time in 2016.

The first election in which all of the Late Millennials will be eligible to vote will be 2020 - we'll probably be able to make a more concrete statement as to party preferences after that election. But the Republicans will almost certainly not win them over if they continue to nominate socially conservative candidates who appeal to their base. They need to find a moderate candidate, who can unite swing voters and independents under a conservative message, without getting bogged down in the culture war issues of yesteryear. If they do this, they'll have a good shot at uniting the Late Millennials into a new, electable GOP coalition.

The "New Silents" or "Homelanders" - those born after 2001 - will be entering their teenage years over the next couple of political cycles. If the GOP were to become a little more forward-thinking, they could begin winning over the youth vote of the 2020's. If any group is up for grabs, it's this generation, and considering the current antics of the GOP, it may be too late to fight for the Late Millennials.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chris Christie is out after Bridgegate? on: January 11, 2014, 04:25:17 pm
If this was January 2015, then totally. Christie would be done if this was a year from now. However, it's January 2015, he's got plenty of time for it to blow over and for the media cycle to move on. It's certainly a devastating stain to his future ambitions, but he's not going anywhere, certainly not since his scandal made national news for multiple days.

However... if we get a "smoking gun" in this scandal, then Christie is Done with a capital D. If we get a concrete smoking gun, Christie should begin his campaign for a really good lawyer rather than a campaign for the Presidency.
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Time to face facts, the GOP is NOT a national party on: December 31, 2013, 07:08:44 pm





Let's face facts. The Democratic Party just is not a national party anymore.

I mean, come on guys. Twice now, in the past five elections, they've lost in tremendous landslides and have only managed to continually win the District of Columbia. Come on, you lefties - just try to tell me I'm wrong.
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie/Huntsman on: December 16, 2013, 03:54:25 pm
I see a Tea Party third Party running if Huntsman gets anywhere near the GOP ticket...

A possible outcome. However, I doubt that such a third party bid would have much of an effect on the race. Assuming Christie/Huntsman was the outcome of a successful primary victory by Chris Christie, and not a brokered convention, the class of candidates who would go through with such a primary bid are not exactly top-tier. Think Michelle Bachmann, not Ted Cruz. If the race is Bush v. Gore close, then it is certainly possible that a tea party bid could have an impact.

But if Huntsman is Christie's running mate, I have to assume Christie didn't veer to the right very much. Maybe enough conservative candidates split up the vote enough to allow Christie to win on a "moderate outsider" message, who knows.

I expect against Hillary, a Christie/Huntsman ticket would be formidable.

The Base Map:

Clinton/Warner - 221 Electoral Votes
Christie/Huntsman - 176 Electoral Votes

39  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Mideast Voting Both: May 2013 Elections on: May 17, 2013, 04:13:52 pm
Executive Election:
[ 1 ] Clinton1996/Siren
[   ] ZuWo/Cathcon
[   ] Drj101/Write-in: __________

Legislative Election:
[ 1 ] Odysseus
[   ] Inks.LWC
[ 4 ] HoosierPoliticalJunkie
[ 5 ] MilesC56
[ 2 ] a Person
[   ] LumineVonReuental
[   ] Oldiesfreak1854
[ 3 ] Shua
[   ] Gass3268
[   ] TNF
[   ] Write-In: __________
[   ] Write-In: __________
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will Obama's final Approval Rating be on Jan 20th 2017? on: May 11, 2013, 03:32:36 am
Assuming he's viewed as a relatively successful president, probably around a 60-70. If the American public has decided that he has failed as president, then probably he'll have about a 30-40.
41  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Mideast Voting Booth: Constitutional Amendments on: May 10, 2013, 02:34:29 am
Aye on both.
42  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Mideast Assembly · Townhall Debate on: May 07, 2013, 11:03:18 pm
I would like to ask a broad question about the topic of game reform at the regional level. Are there, in your view, parts of the regional constitution which should be amended? Or more generally, are there any aspects of the game which we should change?

I think the game itself is fine, and game reform has a history of failure in Atlasia. Time spent drafting bills for game reform might very well be time wasted, in my opinion, however interesting the reform concepts might be.

I would like to ask all of the Mideast Assembly members what they would do with the current surplus that is available via the budget, and why you would do so?

I agree with LumineVonReuental that some of our surplus should spent on transportation and high speed rail, but I also believe that we should place some of our money into the Mideast's education system. The education system, the transportation system, and the information and infrastructure systems of the Mideast should be given more money from this excellent surplus that we currently have due to our budget.
43  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Mideast Voting Booth: Power To The People Amendment on: May 04, 2013, 02:42:58 am
44  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Odysseus for Mideast Assembly (Campaign Headquarters) on: April 30, 2013, 02:34:14 am


As we move closer to the elections for the Mideast Assembly this May, I'd like to do a few things that any good and honest politician might do. I'd first like to wish everyone luck in the upcoming elections - both my opponents and my colleagues. This has been a very fun and enjoyable experience on Atlas, and I've conversed with a lot of people I would not have even seen or heard from other wise. I'd also like to remind everyone of my presence and existence by bumping this thread, of course. In recent days, things have become far less cynical on a number issues.

Most notably: the Mideast budget amendment crisis. I'm happy to report that following two votes on this issue, I've become fairly satisfied with the situation. I believe that the amendment that has most recently been passed is a fine addition to the Mideast constitution. Hopefully, it will settle this matter for quite some time.

Finally, I've been notified by some that a debate might be held between the Assembly hopefuls, including myself, my opponents, and my colleagues. I would be happy to attend such a debate, in order to both provide the people with a venue for the varying beliefs of the candidates, and to meet with the candidates themselves to discuss the issues.
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Elections if Kennedy Lives on: April 29, 2013, 09:15:31 pm
Rockefeller would never be on the ticket with Goldwater under any circumstances.
46  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Should drug users be put in jail? on: April 27, 2013, 11:06:53 pm
God no. Addiction is an issue of mental health, not criminal justice.
47  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: TNF for Mideast Assembly on: April 25, 2013, 10:07:36 pm
As a fellow friend from AH.com, I wish you the best of luck!

You're on ah.com?

Yeah. Under the same username as here.
48  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: TNF for Mideast Assembly on: April 25, 2013, 08:51:19 pm
As a fellow friend from AH.com, I wish you the best of luck!
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who has NO chance? on: April 23, 2013, 10:38:01 pm
GOP: Santorum, Gingrich, Huntsman, Perry, everyone in the tea party caucus, Steve King, Bachmann, Marsha Blackburn etc., Palin, Ted Cruz, Allen West, Rob Portman, Ben Carson, Herman Cain and I'm tempted to say Chris Cristie as well.

Dems: Napolitano, Biden, Mike Beebe, Elizabeth Warren, Jerry Brown, Bill Richardson, Howard Dean, Kerry, Villagarosia, Wasserman-Schultz.

Man, who does that even leave as possibilities? Like three people?
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How long until Florida and Texas go solidly Democratic? on: April 20, 2013, 11:38:10 pm
Never - The GOP will begin to become competitive with Hispanics before Florida (a swing state) and Texas (a solidly Republican state) are solidly Democratic.
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