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June 30, 2016, 01:59:33 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Trump Leads Cruz 42%-29% in National Poll: CBS on: April 14, 2016, 10:34:07 am
Which candidate is most likely to bring the different factions of the Republican party together?

Kasich 32%
Cruz 30%
Trump 30%

good grief, what a nightmare.
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Donald Trump be remembered in 2066? on: April 13, 2016, 01:35:05 pm
If he wins the Republican nomination and the Presidency: One of the most fascinating and flawed Presidents of the last century, and a member of an elite group of one-term presidents who are actually worth talking about academically. His influence on politics and American government will be felt for decades to come, probably because of a progressive backlash to his policies and rhetoric, and for his lasting decimation of the Republican Party as we know it.

If he wins the Republican nomination and loses the Presidency: A modern Goldwater - everyone will vote for the more competent yet equally unlikable Hillary Clinton, yet many will silently think to themselves "my God, he's right!" A generation from now, a politician with Trump's style and at least some of Trump's economic populism will be incredibly successful and win the Presidency, and Trump will be rightly seen as a foreshadowing of this figure.

If he loses the Republican nomination: The man who single-handedly destroyed the Republican coalition, and indirectly caused the complete self-destruction of the Republican Party on a national level for a generation by triggering a literally bloody contested convention in Cleveland.

Sorry folks, Trump may be a blip in history but the values and beliefs that he represents are not. His ilk are no longer sitting silently on the sidelines, it's all out and in the open now. It's going to stay that way barring a complete and sudden radical change in American culture.
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of the candidates' favorite movies on: April 12, 2016, 05:38:06 pm
Hillary and Trump have the best movie tastes here by far.
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does this election make you angry? on: April 10, 2016, 08:13:42 pm
No, just very, very sad.
55  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Remove a Candidate on: April 10, 2016, 12:20:00 am
The opponent who could never win is much scarier than the opponent who has an outside shot, so I'd remove Cruz.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Race and Control of Congress on: April 08, 2016, 07:26:14 pm
I could see Trump delivering Congress, with possibly a substantial loss in the Senate. Not sure with the House.

Cruz, imo, would lose decently and cost them the Senate and probably dozen(s) of House seats, but not control of the House.

People have to remember that for Cruz (or anyone else) to get the nomination, they have to basically steal it from Trump. It may not technically be 'stealing' but the people will see it that way. Add a bitter, divided Republican electorate to the fact that the GOP brand has already been tarnished pretty bad by this race, and you get a recipe for disaster.

There is no happy ending here for Republicans.

This.

I went with Cruz on this one. I could see a lot of people voting against Trump and then voting straight Republican on the rest of their ballot. With Cruz (or worse yet, Ryan) the Republican brand will be significantly tarnished heading out of a brokered convention in Cleveland.
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeffrey Toobin: "New York values" is classic anti-Semitic slur on: April 08, 2016, 01:07:56 pm
Jews think everything is anti-Semitic.

obama pls drone
58  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: North Carolina Overturns LGBT-Discrimination Bans on: April 07, 2016, 08:11:52 pm
It's a good point about psychiatry when they say that there's no cure for a lot of those disorders, so we have to make a person comfortable with whatever they have. After giving this a lot of thought, especially after I pissed off so many people over this, I found that I can somewhat relate to how transgender people feel through my own psychological issues, namely major depression and Aspergers. If you can't just tell me to stop being an aspie, you can't tell somebody else to stop being Trans. And yes, I'm being genuine here and I'm not BSing. Live and let live.


Smiley
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz says he wouldn't allow abortion exceptions for rape in interview with Megyn on: April 06, 2016, 06:00:00 pm
Man, 2016 is gonna be a good year!
60  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Starbucks worker to Rick Scott: "You're an A*shole!" on: April 06, 2016, 05:58:30 pm
61  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: PETITION: Include Clinton vs. Cruz in GE Polls on: April 06, 2016, 12:22:42 pm
There should be separate pages for Cruz and Trump in the general election, like we had for Obama and Hillary back in 2008.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Ted Cruz on: April 06, 2016, 09:57:49 am
the only sort of people who care about the government getting shut down vote Democratic anyway.

lol. If this is the attitude the GOP is taking this November, we're probably looking at +400 EVs for Hillary.
63  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Ban ARG polls from the database on: April 05, 2016, 10:27:48 pm
x Penelope
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rate a Ryan vs. Clinton race on: April 05, 2016, 10:12:21 pm
Congress currently has a 14% approval rating.

Anyone care to explain how Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House and arguably one of the most prominent public faces of Congress, is going to make this at all competative after being nominated in the smoke-filled room, no less?
65  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: North Carolina Overturns LGBT-Discrimination Bans on: April 05, 2016, 10:08:11 pm

Nope, no thanks.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rate a Ryan vs. Clinton race on: April 05, 2016, 10:05:11 pm
'Bout as Safe D as it can get for Hillary.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So cruz winning wisconsin means? on: April 05, 2016, 10:00:14 pm
President Clinton.
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Wisconsin Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) on: April 05, 2016, 08:03:15 pm
Nate Silver apparently thinks Walker dropped out too early. LOL!

69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump uses Mass Effect dialog in campaign ad on: April 04, 2016, 11:35:49 am
what the hell
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pre-Wisconsin Poll: Who will be the Republican nominee? on: April 04, 2016, 07:44:26 am
Still going with Trump for now, he is still the most likely option despite recent hysteria. If he can't break 50% in New York later this month, however, then I think we're seriously looking at a brokered convention.
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP Strategy for a Brokered Convention on: April 03, 2016, 09:28:34 am
I imagine they'll try their best to push Cruz during the first and second ballots in a desperate attempt to stop Trump. If it goes to 3 or more ballots, its easy to imagine that at least some will start getting cold feet about the Cruz marriage.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nominating Trump vs nominating Cruz at a brokered convention? on: April 03, 2016, 07:35:11 am
The issue is that a brokered convention compromise candidate of any kind has a much lower floor than Trump has. Trump is at least a high-risk candidate who could potentially win the election if the party lines up behind him, even if it's a very very low chance. Cruz's floor is probably even lower than a Generic R brokered convention choice, and his ceiling is probably McCain 2008 or lower.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump vs Cruz on: April 02, 2016, 10:03:21 am
Trump = guy with an actual personality, kind of a charming asshole, has emotions

Cruz = creepy space alien whose only resource on human emotions was phillip seymour hoffman's character from the big lebwoski

trump by default
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DC Madame Scandal - Who Is It? on: April 02, 2016, 08:04:17 am
So, when is this bombshell dropping?  Will it kill Cruz in time for Trump to win a majority of delegates?

The case to lift the gag order has been added to the Supreme Court docket. Sibley says that he will release them anyway, if the Supreme Court either declines to hear the case, or rules that the gag order stands. He also says that he has a 'dead man's switch' on the records. Meaning that they are already uploaded to different servers, and he has to enter a password every 72 hours, or they will be automatically sent out to various reporters.

If I had to guess, I'd wager we find out if there's anything interesting in those records pretty soon.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Project Trump's RNC Delegate Total on: April 02, 2016, 07:40:11 am
Atlas has a tendency to overreact to news cycles and different short-term political trends, so I'll guess Trump is either going to be either just below or just above 1237. I remember back when everyone was saying Cruz was done just a few months ago. So, I'll wait to buy into the latest "Trump is done, for sure, definitely this time" hype.
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