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601  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: May 15, 2011, 10:10:52 am
Gallup's at 48-45. Down 2 from Friday, likely a negative sample. We'll see if it goes back up later today.
602  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Ultimate Republican Primary on: May 13, 2011, 02:39:26 pm
A Reagan/Roosevelt ticket would be amazing in my view!

Yeah, that makes total sense. Pro Big-Business, Anti-Union/Anti Big-Business, Pro-Union.

PERFECT TICKET!
603  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: 2012 Election on: May 09, 2011, 03:14:29 am
Nobody.
604  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: 2016: Romney/Rubio vs. Obama/Gillibrand on: May 08, 2011, 06:15:12 pm
Obama in a huge landslide. Hell, any Democrat in a huge landslide. If Romney never got unemployment below 8.5% in four years of governing, then the whole issue that got him elected in the first place is a benefit for Obama.
605  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Bobby Jindal eligible to be President? on: May 08, 2011, 05:14:43 am
Guys, don't use logic. JCL is a troll through and through. Best not to even reply to him.
606  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Bobby Jindal eligible to be President? on: May 07, 2011, 09:31:49 pm
No.

Obama is darker?
607  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Bobby Jindal eligible to be President? on: May 07, 2011, 07:53:02 pm
No, he is not white, so his Presidency is ineligible. /birther mentality.

But in the real world, yes, he's perfectly able. 
608  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Indiana on: May 07, 2011, 01:04:34 pm
I think Obama will have to win 55% nationwise in order to win Indiana. Indiana wasn't a main focus for the GOP in 2008, as resources went to other states and the national GOP was simply relying on the state to somehow stay Republican.

In 2012, Indiana will be a greater focus, as the GOP now knows they aren't unstoppable here. There is also a relatively strong Tea Party movement in Indiana, which should help turnout for the Republican candidate.

Any decent GOP candidate (Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty) should win Indiana. The only way I could see Indiana staying Democratic is if Trump or Palin were nominated, though even then, it'd stay relatively close.

Well, of course, since Obama won it in 2008 with 53% nationally, this makes perfect sense.
609  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 07, 2011, 01:02:27 pm
The result of this poll is probably pretty close to the actual result we would get. Of course, it will be a few points more favorable to Daniels, maybe 52% to 47%, or somewhere along those lines.



Obama/Biden - 359 - 52.7%
Daniels/??? - 179 - 47.3%

610  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: 2012 Election Night Timeline: Michelle Bachmann vs. Barack Obama on: May 06, 2011, 07:37:22 pm
NEVER WRITE ANOTHER TIMELINE AGAIN, THIS SUCKS BECAUSE IT SHOWS OBAMA WINNING BY A LARGE MARGIN AGAINST A HORRIBLE CANDIDATE.

...........................
611  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: North Carolina on: May 06, 2011, 07:34:45 pm
He will get somewhere between 50% and 55% in the state.
612  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 06, 2011, 07:20:41 pm
Remember how Daniels was OMB for the Bush Administration? Remember how his tenure as OMB saw a billions dollar surplus turn into twice of a deficit?

The ads practically write themselves people. Throw in some footage of his inevitable talking points about lowering the deficit, and talk about his tenure as OMB for the Bush Admin, win several hundred to several thousand votes.

. . . A Trend that caused him to resign his position as director of the OMB in protest.  There's a reason Bush had to replace him 2 years in.

No, I realize that. I'm just saying that even reminding people of the fact that Daniels was director of the OMB will gain Obama political points.
613  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who is more arrogant? Romney vs. Obama on: May 05, 2011, 10:11:46 pm
Romney certainly is not arrogant.

Obama

Only Democrats can be arrogant.
614  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 05, 2011, 08:08:47 pm
Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.
Did you read the scenario?  I don't see how it's pro-Daniels if the economy continues with sluggish growth...I thought that implied gas prices only slowly lowering and staying in the mid $3 range?

Remember how Daniels was OMB for the Bush Administration? Remember how his tenure as OMB saw a billions dollar surplus turn into twice of a deficit?

The ads practically write themselves people. Throw in some footage of his inevitable talking points about lowering the deficit, and talk about his tenure as OMB for the Bush Admin, win several hundred to several thousand votes.

Anyway, even with those circumstances, Obama could likely carry Ohio and Pennsylvania. If gas prices are slowly lowering, then they should be 2.50 range by election day. I could see NH going for Daniels, maybe. I agree that'd it be a close election though.
615  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 05, 2011, 08:01:20 pm
Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.
616  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 05, 2011, 07:58:22 pm
If the most recent Paul map was too harsh on him, this one is definitely too harsh on Daniels.  Is this evidence we are a left-leaning board Shocked

Obama 349
Daniels 189



Or maybe Daniels is just not a very spectacular candidate.
617  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: May 05, 2011, 05:29:45 pm
New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0


The way the polling seems to be going, it seems like he could reasonably be in the upper fifties by tomorrow or Saturday.
618  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Paul on: May 04, 2011, 04:27:09 pm
Paul has even worse chances now that Bin Ladden is dead.

I disagree

Mind explaining?  An anti-war candidate wouldn't be as prosperous with the crowd, since the Iraq War is over and Afghanistan's main target is down.

He loves Ron Paul so therefor he will win.
619  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: May 04, 2011, 04:16:30 pm
Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.

That's about a +5 shift since Sunday.
620  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bin Laden Dead- What Happens Now? on: May 02, 2011, 10:49:00 pm
About 1992 comparisons:

Bush lost chiefly because of Republican fatigue. Voters were just tired of the Republican party. They'd only voted for Bush so greatly in 1988 because Dukkakis was a failure of a candidate. They'd had 8 years under Reagan, and 4 years under Bush. 12 years of Republican dominance in the white house, plus the infamous gaffe, and Perot, made for an easy Dem victory.
621  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bin Laden Dead- What Happens Now? on: May 02, 2011, 02:09:48 pm
Obama vs. marginal, non-nutcase Republican, 2012. It would be about a 57-42 popular margin and roughly a replay of Eisenhower 1956:




Obama/Biden     463
Sacrificial Lambs   85


This is an optimistic scenario, but a valid one. I'd say this is the upper limit for Obama's re-election.
622  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: May 02, 2011, 02:07:07 pm
We are sure to see a bounce tomorrow, most of these polls were likely taken prior to the announcement.
623  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bin Laden Dead- What Happens Now? on: May 02, 2011, 06:16:21 am
What happens now? America gets crucified from Europe and everyone else in the world, because we are just so bad!

Fail. Europe will be just as happy about this as we are, probably.
624  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bin Laden Dead- What Happens Now? on: May 02, 2011, 05:11:23 am
Obama's approval reaches at least 65%, and settles around 55% after a couple of months.
625  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Rubio 2012 on: April 28, 2011, 10:12:20 pm
#1.

Romney/Rubio - 327 EV
Obama/Biden - 211 EV

#2.

Obama/Biden - 297 EV
Romney/Rubio - 241 EV

#3.

Obama/Biden - 414 EV
Romney/Rubio - 124 EV
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