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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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601  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Collaborative Election Night Game on: August 05, 2011, 03:58:00 pm
Hold on while I update the map for the 8 pm states
602  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Collaborative Election Night Game on: August 05, 2011, 03:41:08 pm
7:34 PM: Perry wins a surprisingly easy victory in North Carolina.

Perry: 55.7%
Casey: 44.1%
Other: .2%



Casey/Klobuchar - 19 EV's
Perry/Rubio - 23 EV's
603  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Collaborative Election Night Game on: August 05, 2011, 03:15:49 pm
RULES:

1. The first poster (in this instance, me) starts an election night, regardless of year, calling one state, choosing which party it goes for, and by what percentage.

2. All following posters update the map with one state per post.

3. We will use this map for reference. Try to keep within the confines of poll closing times.

http://www.youdecidepolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/poll-closing-times.jpg


Without further adieu, I'll start us off:

*******

ELECTION NIGHT 2016:

Bob Casey (D-PA) / Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) v. Rick Perry (R-TX) /  Marco Rubio (R-FL)


7:01 PM: The state of Kentucky is called for Gov. Perry.

Perry: 54.3%
Casey: 44.5%
Other: 1.2%







604  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Rick Santorum: Education turns US students into Communists ! on: August 05, 2011, 12:26:23 pm
Interesting perspective TJ.  I never thought before about alcohol being the first step towards atheism. But then my atheism preceded booze so perhaps I may be forgiven for that.  Smiley  

But don't you think kids who were were not much into booze were in general screwing too (with screwing leading to having  an issue with religion and so forth)?  Where did you go to college if I may ask?

I've found that my atheism was induced by natural skepticism and thought, but okay.
605  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Obama pull an LBJ? on: August 05, 2011, 11:52:44 am
I suggest you start reading more reliable and responsible news sources. Obama announced his intention to run again months ago.
606  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: August 05, 2011, 11:51:34 am
I am positive neither pbrower or JJ's analyses are biased by their political beliefs at all.

I don't know.  I think Obama can win in a good economy.  However, I think we're heading into recession.  We'll know the second one first.

Obviously, Obamacare was not politically popular.

We're can't be entering a new recession, we never left the old one. If we keep getting private sector job growth through 2012, then we'll see a fairly big victory for Barack Obama.

'Obamacare' was not unpopular in the fashion that you appear to be spinning it. A lot of people did not like Obama's healthcare reform because they thought it did not go far enough, and that will not drive them to vote for Mitt Romney, or whoever the GOP candidate will be.
607  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What will be ... on: August 05, 2011, 10:57:43 am
The job-seeking mom.

^This
608  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Who will the next Republican President be? on: August 05, 2011, 10:42:16 am
Rick Perry in an extremely close election in 2016, or alternatively, maybe Scott Brown or Marco Rubio in 2020 in a fairly GOP-friendly election.
609  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Which scenario is more likely for Obama? on: August 05, 2011, 10:39:08 am
Truman '48, and if not that, Clinton '96.

As was said above, the Republicans simply don't have any smart, young, dynamic candidates like Clinton or Gore in '92.
610  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: August 05, 2011, 12:28:36 am
I am positive neither pbrower or JJ's analyses are biased by their political beliefs at all.
611  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Roseanne Barr is running for President on: August 04, 2011, 11:21:47 pm
At the end of her Presidency we'll discover that it was all a dream, and we're back in 2009, where Sarah Palin has just assumed the Presidency after McCain's death.
612  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The reason the GOP field seems so unstable on: August 04, 2011, 05:41:37 pm
George W. Bush became President because George H. W. Bush was VP in 1980? My god, who would've guessed?!
613  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2036: Reflections on: August 03, 2011, 04:52:18 pm
@Catchcon:

Reaganfan mentions the doozy as "one last successor", so I have a feeling this will be the last guy before our President-Elect. That also means Rubio has to be a two-termer. I have a feeling we'll get a moderate 2 term democrat followed by a conservative Republican President-elect, just by the way things are going.

I am guessing this last "guy" will actually be a woman.


Gabby Giffords, calling it.
614  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2036: Reflections on: August 02, 2011, 05:10:25 pm
@Catchcon:

Reaganfan mentions the doozy as "one last successor", so I have a feeling this will be the last guy before our President-Elect. That also means Rubio has to be a two-termer. I have a feeling we'll get a moderate 2 term democrat followed by a conservative Republican President-elect, just by the way things are going.
615  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2036: Reflections on: August 02, 2011, 10:54:07 am
I'm a Rick Perry Fanboy: The Timeline! Tongue

Though in all serious I enjoy your writing style, so keep going.
616  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Does the Debt Deal help or hurt Obama in 2012? on: August 02, 2011, 06:26:04 am
Anything that saved the world economy will help the President.

But no one will really remember this by the time Barack Obama has a named Republican to go up against.
617  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Are we ever going to have a president born in the 1950's? on: August 01, 2011, 06:11:58 pm
Most contenders for 2016 are 50's kids IIRC.
618  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: July 30, 2011, 02:04:23 am
What is wrong with Gallup? Their erratic numbers are really unprofessional.

Considering the circumstances, nothing seems that off to me.
619  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Governors' statewide popularity on: July 29, 2011, 11:56:29 am
McDonnell is not doing anything or giving anything for people to disapprove of - hell, I support the man right now.

Also, VA is a GOP state by sq. mile, but a leaning Dem state by population.
620  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pew: Obama reelect number among independents drops 15% in 2 months on: July 29, 2011, 11:27:06 am
Not only that, it's just "prefer Republican".

Just like "Generic Republican" polls have zero bearing on anything, this tells us nothing either. It might as well say "prefer Morbo the News Monster".
621  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Did Christie 2012 End Today? on: July 28, 2011, 12:21:44 pm
Christie 2012 never started.
622  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Strickland: Obama will likely carry OH again on: July 28, 2011, 10:52:41 am
Strickland clearly understands the voice of the people. I mean, thats why he was reelected right......? Wink


Meh, you have a point, but at the same time, he did about as well as any incumbent Democratic governor was going to do in Ohio last year.
Thats true. My bet (and wish) is to see OH, NC, PA, FL, and IN flip.

The main reason why Strckland was almost re-elcted was because he was running against Kasich. Ohio was going to elect a Republican to pretty much everything imaginable last year regardless of who it was because Obama's name was (is?) mud. If there was a gubernatorial race in Ohio between Strickland and Kasich any other year besides 2010, Strickland would have won easily. Now, Kasich's name is mud, not that it was much better regarded to begin with.

Strickland himself wasn't particularly popular or unpopular statewide. He is mainly regarded as a do-nothing governor since it's pretty hard to name a single important thing he did in four years. In some places that might be a horrendous insult, but in Ohio that thought is usually followed by "at least he didn't screw anything up either".

Strickland also has an electoral advantage Obama doesn't; he can carry the Southeast part of the state. That is the swingiest part of Ohio and full of West-Virginia style Democrats. Strickland cleaned up that part of the state while Obama got creamed there and will again. Obama won Ohio because he was so dominant nationally, not because he fit the demographics of the state.
Yeah, President Bush could have beaten Obama in Ohio.

What is this, I don't even.
623  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Strickland: Obama will likely carry OH again on: July 28, 2011, 09:57:55 am
Strickland clearly understands the voice of the people. I mean, thats why he was reelected right......? Wink


Because 100.00% of the people voted last November, right?
624  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: July 28, 2011, 09:57:08 am
No one is winning the budget battle.
625  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Does anyone know what the hell this is? on: July 25, 2011, 05:47:05 am
Tom Friedman is pushing these guys, he thinks they are "centrist", which shows just how far left he (and the rest of the mainstream media) is:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/24/opinion/sunday/24friedman.html

Or perhaps how far right (and the rest of the fringe media) is.

If it's "mainstream" it's not "far" left.
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