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601  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is Bobby Jindal eligible to be President? on: May 07, 2011, 07:53:02 pm
No, he is not white, so his Presidency is ineligible. /birther mentality.

But in the real world, yes, he's perfectly able. 
602  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Indiana on: May 07, 2011, 01:04:34 pm
I think Obama will have to win 55% nationwise in order to win Indiana. Indiana wasn't a main focus for the GOP in 2008, as resources went to other states and the national GOP was simply relying on the state to somehow stay Republican.

In 2012, Indiana will be a greater focus, as the GOP now knows they aren't unstoppable here. There is also a relatively strong Tea Party movement in Indiana, which should help turnout for the Republican candidate.

Any decent GOP candidate (Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty) should win Indiana. The only way I could see Indiana staying Democratic is if Trump or Palin were nominated, though even then, it'd stay relatively close.

Well, of course, since Obama won it in 2008 with 53% nationally, this makes perfect sense.
603  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 07, 2011, 01:02:27 pm
The result of this poll is probably pretty close to the actual result we would get. Of course, it will be a few points more favorable to Daniels, maybe 52% to 47%, or somewhere along those lines.



Obama/Biden - 359 - 52.7%
Daniels/??? - 179 - 47.3%

604  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: 2012 Election Night Timeline: Michelle Bachmann vs. Barack Obama on: May 06, 2011, 07:37:22 pm
NEVER WRITE ANOTHER TIMELINE AGAIN, THIS SUCKS BECAUSE IT SHOWS OBAMA WINNING BY A LARGE MARGIN AGAINST A HORRIBLE CANDIDATE.

...........................
605  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: North Carolina on: May 06, 2011, 07:34:45 pm
He will get somewhere between 50% and 55% in the state.
606  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 06, 2011, 07:20:41 pm
Remember how Daniels was OMB for the Bush Administration? Remember how his tenure as OMB saw a billions dollar surplus turn into twice of a deficit?

The ads practically write themselves people. Throw in some footage of his inevitable talking points about lowering the deficit, and talk about his tenure as OMB for the Bush Admin, win several hundred to several thousand votes.

. . . A Trend that caused him to resign his position as director of the OMB in protest.  There's a reason Bush had to replace him 2 years in.

No, I realize that. I'm just saying that even reminding people of the fact that Daniels was director of the OMB will gain Obama political points.
607  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who is more arrogant? Romney vs. Obama on: May 05, 2011, 10:11:46 pm
Romney certainly is not arrogant.

Obama

Only Democrats can be arrogant.
608  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 05, 2011, 08:08:47 pm
Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.
Did you read the scenario?  I don't see how it's pro-Daniels if the economy continues with sluggish growth...I thought that implied gas prices only slowly lowering and staying in the mid $3 range?

Remember how Daniels was OMB for the Bush Administration? Remember how his tenure as OMB saw a billions dollar surplus turn into twice of a deficit?

The ads practically write themselves people. Throw in some footage of his inevitable talking points about lowering the deficit, and talk about his tenure as OMB for the Bush Admin, win several hundred to several thousand votes.

Anyway, even with those circumstances, Obama could likely carry Ohio and Pennsylvania. If gas prices are slowly lowering, then they should be 2.50 range by election day. I could see NH going for Daniels, maybe. I agree that'd it be a close election though.
609  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 05, 2011, 08:01:20 pm
Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.
610  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Daniels on: May 05, 2011, 07:58:22 pm
If the most recent Paul map was too harsh on him, this one is definitely too harsh on Daniels.  Is this evidence we are a left-leaning board Shocked

Obama 349
Daniels 189



Or maybe Daniels is just not a very spectacular candidate.
611  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: May 05, 2011, 05:29:45 pm
New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0


The way the polling seems to be going, it seems like he could reasonably be in the upper fifties by tomorrow or Saturday.
612  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama vs. Paul on: May 04, 2011, 04:27:09 pm
Paul has even worse chances now that Bin Ladden is dead.

I disagree

Mind explaining?  An anti-war candidate wouldn't be as prosperous with the crowd, since the Iraq War is over and Afghanistan's main target is down.

He loves Ron Paul so therefor he will win.
613  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: May 04, 2011, 04:16:30 pm
Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.

That's about a +5 shift since Sunday.
614  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bin Laden Dead- What Happens Now? on: May 02, 2011, 10:49:00 pm
About 1992 comparisons:

Bush lost chiefly because of Republican fatigue. Voters were just tired of the Republican party. They'd only voted for Bush so greatly in 1988 because Dukkakis was a failure of a candidate. They'd had 8 years under Reagan, and 4 years under Bush. 12 years of Republican dominance in the white house, plus the infamous gaffe, and Perot, made for an easy Dem victory.
615  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bin Laden Dead- What Happens Now? on: May 02, 2011, 02:09:48 pm
Obama vs. marginal, non-nutcase Republican, 2012. It would be about a 57-42 popular margin and roughly a replay of Eisenhower 1956:




Obama/Biden     463
Sacrificial Lambs   85


This is an optimistic scenario, but a valid one. I'd say this is the upper limit for Obama's re-election.
616  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: May 02, 2011, 02:07:07 pm
We are sure to see a bounce tomorrow, most of these polls were likely taken prior to the announcement.
617  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bin Laden Dead- What Happens Now? on: May 02, 2011, 06:16:21 am
What happens now? America gets crucified from Europe and everyone else in the world, because we are just so bad!

Fail. Europe will be just as happy about this as we are, probably.
618  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Bin Laden Dead- What Happens Now? on: May 02, 2011, 05:11:23 am
Obama's approval reaches at least 65%, and settles around 55% after a couple of months.
619  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Rubio 2012 on: April 28, 2011, 10:12:20 pm
#1.

Romney/Rubio - 327 EV
Obama/Biden - 211 EV

#2.

Obama/Biden - 297 EV
Romney/Rubio - 241 EV

#3.

Obama/Biden - 414 EV
Romney/Rubio - 124 EV
620  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: What will happen first on: April 26, 2011, 08:47:31 pm
A socialist can't win in the USA? Ever hear of Woodrow Wilson, FDR, LBJ, or Barack Obama? And we would have elected Hillary had she been nominated in '08.

What the hell makes Woodrow Wilson, FDR, LBJ, or Obama socialists?
621  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Realigning Elections in modern day on: April 25, 2011, 03:31:09 am
I think the concensus will be in a few decades that 2008 was, in deed, a realigning election.  Here's why:

-It was an electorally decisive victory for the Democrats.
-Democrats became competitive in areas where thay had never been competitve in recent memory (VA, CO, IN, etc.)
-Based on polling for the 2012 election, in areas where Obama made in-roads in 2008 his advantage seems to be sticking
-Voting patterns, demographically speaking, changed.  Democrats won 40+ percent in many suburban areas.  
-Begins the decline of the Conservative Coalition and the rise of the Tea Party coalition.  
-Last Southern Democrats begin to die-out.
-Its fits the pattern of realigning elections, about every 40 years (1860, 1896, 1932, 1968...2008?)

Also, beginning in 1994 and continuing to the present day one begins to see the Democrats starting to be the party of execuitive (presidential) choice while the Republicans are mainly the party of Congressional choice; this is opposed to much of the 20th Century--where Republicans more often than not won the White House and Democrats had large majorities in both Houses of Congress.  

However, 1992 cannot be seen as a realigning election--instead it can be remembered as a kind-of "last of its kind" election--a white, Southern Democrat winning over the rural South.  

Of course, my theory would be completley out the window if Obama lost in 2012.  

This. There are so many 'game changing' things about the 2008 election in itself that it is probably the realigning election.
622  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Car Crash that Changed History on: April 24, 2011, 03:20:12 pm
Hopefully Smith won't turn out to be a power hungry socialist like FDR was.

You said it, Bender.

Otherwise, great TL so far, I hope to see it continue!
623  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Gary Johnson vs. Doritos on: April 23, 2011, 11:00:54 am
Doritos/Doritos. Although Johnson is appealing, I must always vote for the ticket with Stephen Colbert on it.

Never would've suspected you of all people would be a Colbert fan.
624  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread on: April 22, 2011, 08:04:14 pm
Gallup's up to 44-47. Obama seems to be doing about 2 points better across the board.
625  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Why is Obama sinking like a rock? on: April 22, 2011, 05:07:24 am
Nestled underneath GOP wank scenarios is probably the real reason:

It's because gas prices are high.
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