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601  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Primary Atlas Poll, Sept 2015 on: September 15, 2015, 09:20:32 pm
Currently, I support Bernie Sanders, but I'd probably switch to Joe Biden if he gets into the race.
602  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How long can Jeb survive with under-10% polling and poor debate performances? on: September 15, 2015, 01:31:24 am
If Jeb remains under 10% in polling and continues to have poor debate performances, it's more than likely that Rubio would manage to siphon off a lot of establishment support from Jeb. So, in that scenario, Jeb would likely drop out sometime before the primaries and endorse Rubio in an attempt to stop Trump.
603  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How many Republican Governors will there be by 2017? on: September 14, 2015, 11:28:07 pm
The GOP gains KY in 2015; MO, VT, WV in 2016; and in 2017, Virginia goes Republican and New Jersey goes Democratic.

So, 35 GOP governors going into 2018.
604  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Are Libertarians more like Republicans or Democrats? on: September 14, 2015, 10:35:49 pm
GOP. Honestly, the only Dem issues I see Libertarians on are gay marriage, pot, and sometimes surveillance and FoPo. Their economic ideas generally fall to the right of the GOP. A philosophy grounded in shrinking government is inherently conservative.

Not only this, but most libertarians I see don't support gay marriage or other social issues for the reasons that socially progressive democrats do.
605  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Politicians That You Believe Will See a Renaissance on: September 14, 2015, 10:31:25 pm
Jimmy Carter's post-presidential work, and the likelyhood of Ronald Reagan being seen as worse as time goes on, makes him the prime candidate for this. I could see George W. Bush being liked by hardline conservatives in the same vein that hardline liberals will proudly defend LBJ's presidency today.
606  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee claims Dred Scott decision is still "law of the land" on: September 13, 2015, 09:18:39 pm
Huckabee is performing very, very poorly for a guy who did well in 2008 and was viewed as a potential frontrunner just four years ago.
607  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Drop-Out Poll, 9/11/15 on: September 11, 2015, 10:01:24 pm
If Rand Paul doesn't have a miraculously good debate performance, he'll probably decline to give any money to the state GOP, and simply work towards running for re-election to the Senate.

If Rand does pull off a miracle next Wednesday night, then it will almost certainly be one of Christie, Santorum, or Jindal. Santorum and Jindal at the very least have the hope of doing well enough in CNN's early debate to be the next Carly Fiorina. I would've thought both of them too hopelessly boring to pull it off, but after Carson's rise in the polls, I think anything is possible.

I think all the Democratic candidates are going to stay in until at least the first debate. The non-Hillary candidates are all banking on a rise in the polls once they get to make their case on the debate stage.
608  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary win the general election? on: September 06, 2015, 01:32:14 pm
Her ability to win on paper is and will be terrible, but it will almost certainly be enhanced by Republican stupidity.

Yeah, this. If the GOP continues down their current trajectory, and nominates a complete fool like Donald Trump, or a rabid radical like Ted Cruz, she will win by one of the largest margins in modern electoral history. Her own unpopularity would limit the chances of a landslide, but it would probably end up in the ballpark of an 6 - 12% margin of victory in the popular vote.

Are you voting based on what you WANT to happen or what you THINK will happen?

What I think will happen. Hillary may be unpopular, but any (likely) Republican nominee at this stage will embarrass themselves in the debates and come across like a reactionary during the campaign season.
609  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Candidates Atlas Opinion Polling on: September 05, 2015, 12:43:07 pm
UPDATE

(as of Voter #46)

1. Bernie Sanders: +19
6. Hillary Clinton: -12

Yeah, whoever first predicted that Bernie Sanders fans would be like Ron Paul fans for the Democratic Party was right, and I regret ever doubting them.
610  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: If we banned CountryClassSF, why is bobloblaw allowed to run free? on: September 03, 2015, 11:59:42 am
i'd second that, especially since he seems to have drifted into white nationalist territory as of late
611  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush pisses off Stephen Colbert on: September 03, 2015, 11:23:34 am
Rolling Stone has a bit of clearer info on this.

Quote from: Rolling Stone
Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush recently sent out an email to supporters trumpeting his visit to the inaugural episode of Late Show With Stephen Colbert and also announcing a contest where, for $3, donors could win a VIP trip to the taping. One problem: No one at Team Jeb! cleared the contest with Stephen Colbert..

So while, yes, politicians always go on late night programs to raise awareness for their campaigns, they generally don't use them to start unauthorized fundraising 'contests' giving out tickets to said late night programs. This may not sound like a big deal, but it put CBS in the awkward position of having to deny that this was a coordinated tie-in. And as the NY Daily News points out:

Quote from: NY Daily News
Tickets to the Colbert show, like those to the Jimmy Fallon show on NBC and the Jimmy Kimmel show on ABC, are free. Attendees request tickets months in advance and they are required to show identification to get in.

They are among the few tickets that almost never make it to the resale market.

Bush’s campaign would be following common practice if it distributed some of its guest tickets to his good friends, who during a presidential campaign would prominently include people who give him money.

The campaign might also say that the raffle gives a much wider range of supporters a chance to attend, since they won’t just be handed to a few select top donors.

But as the article goes on to say - he's not giving some tickets out to close friends who might give him donations, he's transparently asking for donations in exchange for the possibility of getting a ticket to the show.

It's also worth noting that Stephen Colbert is not some empty-suit, and despite his move away from the Colbert Report, remains quite political in comparison with other late night hosts. So it should be no surprise that he is so public about this obvious attempt to turn a late night appearance into a fundraising opportunity. Colbert has already responded with a tongue-in-cheek contest of his own, here.

In conclusion, let's hope that Jeb!'s appearance on the Late Show is as much of a disaster as it promises to be.
612  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Morning Consult national poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 1-11 points on: September 01, 2015, 11:32:10 am
Trump gets 16% of Obama voters. Doesn't seem realistic?

Trump wins the brogressive vote against Hillary Clinton, which shouldn't be that surprising.
613  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush campaign releases devastating web ad against Trump on: September 01, 2015, 11:23:16 am

Wont make a difference. Bush is weak on the border and embraces another culture.

Running Jeb is like running Billy Carter (RIP)

Wow.
614  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush campaign releases devastating web ad against Trump on: September 01, 2015, 11:19:41 am
Highlights from the comments

'Still don't care, Trump is still better than another Bush''

''Folks tend to change their mind when life experience shows that their original opinion or belief is no longer valid or was possibly wrong to begin with. I have certainly changed my mind as I have learned through time. I have voted for TWO of the Bush family for president. Considering the other candidates at the time it was not a hard choice. It is not a hard choice now. Trump 2016!''

''This video didn't really change my mind, and I think it's a weak attack. Trump was a private citizen most of his life, not a politician, and he seems to have naturally evolved his positions over time.''

''I like him even more after this video. He's a pragmatist and not a partisan. I'm a moderate republican and I think the rich should be paying more in taxes. The middle class is getting absolutely hosed in this country. Trump 2016!''

"Devastating"
615  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 GOP White House victory: blessing in disguise for Dems? on: August 30, 2015, 05:48:00 pm
Somehow I don't think the GOP holding the Presidency and large majorities in both houses of congress while also controlling most state legislatures would be a good thing for the Democrats or this nation, no.
616  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump Decision on 3rd Party Coming "Very Soon" on: August 30, 2015, 01:59:20 am
He's going to make the pledge because he has to in order to appear on the primary ballot in some states.

But that doesn't mean he can't change his mind.
617  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you support ending birthright citizenship (US)? on: August 24, 2015, 09:09:03 pm
No (not a racist lunatic with fantasies about ANCHOR BABIES being used to take advantage of our 'generous' (lmao) welfare state)
618  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Perry campaign, low on cash, stops paying SC staff *UPDATE* actually, all staff on: August 24, 2015, 06:18:05 pm
At this rate, I have to wonder if Perry will make it to the CNN debate.
619  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush clarifies 'anchor babies' wasn't anti-Hispanic slur, it was about Asians on: August 24, 2015, 06:13:33 pm
This is the best election cycle.

I can't wait until the next GOP debate, when candidates get into heated arguments over how to deal with the 'anchor baby threat' that is destroying this nation.
620  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather discuss music with BRTD or discuss sex and gender with Antonio? on: August 24, 2015, 06:11:40 pm
Antonio and this isn't even close.
621  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Crossdressing on: August 24, 2015, 06:10:31 pm
I've crossdressed more than once and to assume that all men who crossdress are doing it for sexual or perverted reasons is kind of insensitive, to be flat honest.
622  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Women in the military: yes or no? on: August 23, 2015, 03:23:30 pm
Might I suggest stop replying to this poster? His MO is to periodically post some extremist thing and then disappear. Never responds in his own posts or others. Classic hit and run tactics. Perhaps stop playing along ? This will be my first and last post to this OP
623  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker joins Trump, calls for ending birthright citizenship on: August 17, 2015, 02:50:04 pm
This is insane. What the hell is happening?
624  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Make a Prediction: Hillary vs Bernie in every state on: August 15, 2015, 05:31:32 pm
Bernie wins NH in a close race, but loses NV and SC by wide margins. He picks up his home state of VT, along with CO and MN on Super Tuesday but loses everywhere else. Biden drops out. Bernie continues his campaign mostly for ideological reasons and to maintain awareness about issues he feels are important. He wins the occasional caucus, but finally suspends his campaign in early April and endorses Hillary.

625  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Black Lives Matter on: August 13, 2015, 08:08:40 am
Very positive.

Negative, First of all it should be All Lives Matter or Stop Police Brutality as police brutality affects everyone, and 2nd and most importantly its been turned into an attack everyone but Hillary group

First of all, blacks are disproportionate victims of police brutality in this nation. Suggesting that movements to stop police brutality should just ignore the racial aspect of the issue is suggesting that they ignore half of the issue itself. It downplays the importance of the racial disparity in police brutality cases. It also downplays black victims themselves by implying that blacks face a relatively equal burden as whites (or any other race) as victims of police abuse of power.

Second of all, as others have already pointed out, BLM has protested at Hillary events as well. This movement is not about the Democratic primary, believe it or not, but about one of the biggest civil rights issues of our time. The idea that the 'most important' factor in your opinion of BLM is the fact that Bernie Sanders allowed 2 people who identified with the movement to speak out at his event is really laughable considering what this movement is actually about.
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