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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you know of a good data source for a US demographics data science project? on: September 24, 2017, 09:16:27 am
If you want .csv file on specific subject without having to navigate around a tool like the Census Bureau's Factfinder or NHGIS's catalogue, you might get to it most quickly by searching on data.gov or any of the state data portals, e.g. data.ny.gov. That's a crap-shoot though.

But it should be pretty simple to find a readable table - in .txt, .csv, xlsx, whatever format - through the Census Factfinder (choose the "download center" option, not community profiles). The Census website has extremely limited historical data, though, so if you're interested in looking at changes prior to ~2000 you'll probably only find it through NHGIS. You have to register for a free account but once you've done that the site is no more difficult to navigate than the Census website and has a good variety of options for exporting datasets.

Depending on the software that you use for analysis, you might save time by retrieving data directly through that - e.g. this R package for retrieving Census data.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Randy Bryce (@ironstache) internal shows Paul Ryan in big trouble on: September 23, 2017, 07:43:15 am
Jon Ossoff would be a better candidate in WI-1 than Bryce: why do you think Mr Generic Culinary Arts Major came closer to beating Ryan than anybody in recent memory? His blue-collar flare for dishes?

Wait, in what world is working in a kitchen not blue collar?

Randy Bryce's style would be a poor fit for Democrats in many districts, and the district is beyond marginal. But why would the relative success of a small business owner with strong community ties, coming from a fairly modest background, say anything about the merits of an airbrushed non-entity like Ossoff, who airdropped into his wealthy parents' district for the first time since leaving his private school to run a congressional campaign against Donald Trump?

It's unfortunate that boring candidates like Zerban don't attract much grassroots excitement, but the comparison doesn't make sense. There's a side of the party that likes candidates like Ossoff, and another side of it that likes candidates like Bryce. Both frequently work to the detriment of other candidates who simply know their districts best.
3  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Why are *so many* Libertarians so smug and annoying? on: September 23, 2017, 07:26:02 am
No, I mean the alt-right is mostly made up of former libertarians. It's where the Paulites of 2008 and 2012 went.

Far be it from me to offer a word in defense of libertarians - “I have always found it quaint and rather touching that there is a movement in the US that thinks Americans are not yet selfish enough" - but this has less to do with sincere and self-professed libertarians moving toward fascism than with the grotesque grab-bag that comprised Paul's coalition: Buchananites, survivalists, anti-vaxers, 9/11 truthers, anti-fluoride people, neopagans, and every other variety of marginalized, conspiracy-spinning oddball.
4  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Why are *so many* Libertarians so smug and annoying? on: September 23, 2017, 07:17:19 am
the free market (which doesn't truly exist in the way they think it does) has one goal of profit and doesn't care who it buries along the way.

I received a phone call not long ago from an out-of-area number that I didn't recognize. Maybe it was a tele-marketer - that is to say, a teleological marketer - gone hungry for corpses.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: October 2017 Federalist Party Convention - PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY STARTED!!!! on: September 22, 2017, 10:04:04 pm

OFFICIAL BALLOT
[ 1 ] President Fhtagn (F-ME)/Vice President PiT (The Physicist) (F-LA)
[ 2 ] Fmr. Justice Oakvale (F-NY)/Fmr. Representative Potus2036 (F-WV)
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump be a 1 term President? on: September 22, 2017, 10:01:24 pm
A state where Democrats came nearly a million votes short of winning in 2016 will somehow serve as part of a "firewall" in 2020? That's bold thinking.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump be a 1 term President? on: September 22, 2017, 09:48:27 pm
Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush had a ~49% average approval rating on election day and got 51% of the vote. Obama 2012 had a ~50% average approval rating on election day and got 51% of the vote. If Trump has an approval rating of ~40% on election day, he's not really comparable to those two. We'll have a better idea in a year or two if Trump is ever going to recover, but it's worth pointing out that Trump has never once breached 50% approval across his entire presidency, and he's through a sixth of it by now.

He's already won the presidency with <46% of the vote. That was without anything resembling a notable third-party challenger. So, what's to stop him from winning re-election with barely 40%? Even 45% wouldn't require much, given how sticky his approvals have been over the past nine months.
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Quotations from the Chairman on: September 22, 2017, 09:41:21 pm
9. Former Atlasian President Polnut, barely twelve hours before he was unexpectedly martyred:

I do not need results. I am panicking already.

How is that productive? Serious question.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did Trump do better among Northern surburban voters, worse among southern? on: September 22, 2017, 09:38:03 pm
I can't stop thinking about the silliness of that comment. Does your definition of blue collar comprise anyone who drives by a derelict factory on their daily drive? Is it based on the median age of a neighborhood's housing stock? The percentage of male adult residents listening to baseball on a typical week night... in your imagination? What are you even on?
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Quotations from the Chairman on: September 22, 2017, 09:29:45 pm
8. Eusa was angre he was in rayj & he kep pulin on the Littl Man the Addoms owt strecht arms. The Littl Man the Addom he begun tu cum a part he cryd, I wan tu go I wan tu stay. Eusa sed, tel mor. The Addom sed, I wan tu dark, I wan tu lyt, I wan tu day I wan tu nyt. Eusa sed, tel mor. The Addom sed, I wan tu woman, I wan tu man. Eusa sed, tel mor. The Addom sed, I wan tu plus I wan tu minus, I wan tu big, I wan tu littl, I wan tu aul, I wan tu nuthing.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did Trump do better among Northern surburban voters, worse among southern? on: September 22, 2017, 09:25:27 pm
The northern suburbs tend to be more blue collar than the southern ones.

This site really is going to the dogs. How ignorant, how moronic, how utterly uninformed must a person be to believe this? Just get out.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you know of a good data source for a US demographics data science project? on: September 22, 2017, 09:23:22 pm
If you're looking for longitudinal data from the Census, NHGIS is the easiest place to find it.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Fremont Voting Booth : August 2017 elections on: September 22, 2017, 09:14:12 pm
Pericles

Next election you can vote for me. Thanks for your support.

You are welcome, and you will have my vote.

^ You are aware that this election ended weeks ago, right?

...and you are about as aware as a poached egg in a petunia.
14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Fremont Voting Booth : September 2017 special parliamentary election on: September 22, 2017, 09:08:33 pm
Simfan
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Fremont Voting Booth : September 2017 special election on: September 17, 2017, 08:42:22 am
1. Siren
2. Wonder Woman
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chance of all 487 Clinton Counties voting Democrat again in 2020. on: September 04, 2017, 10:08:02 pm
As of now, any marginal win in a smaller metro county with a larger than average percentage of white voters is a good candidate to flip, even against a national trend in the opposite direction - and there are quite a few of them, albeit a lot fewer than there were prior to 2016.
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Fremont Voting Booth : August 2017 elections on: September 04, 2017, 09:52:59 pm
Pericles
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Quotations from the Chairman on: September 04, 2017, 09:48:43 pm

1. In the 80s, young urban professionals (yuppies) were Thatcherites. Their equivalents today are Corbynistas.




2. I am aware of studies which show that depression is about 10X more frequent today than it was about a century ago, based on methodology I find reasonable. Life today sucks. We are almost all close to powerless in our daily lives: we work for wages, without those wages we will suffer greatly, and to get those wages we must do what our bosses say, no matter how noxious what they demand is. It takes two people to earn a living where it once took one, and wealth and income are collapsing




3. Lost sometimes in our reactions to a changing childhood is the way these changes are rooted in our changing conceptions of adulthood– chiefly, that we hardly have any conception of adulthood as an arena with its own unique concerns and preoccupations , except perhaps for sexuality and intoxication, which each grow in imagined importance as other avenues of strictly adult enjoyment recede.




4. “Where oh where were your much vaunted principles, oh ‘sensible conservatives,’ when Trump was batting about that Obama was born in Kenya, when you nominated Sarah Palin as vice president, when death panels were all the rage?” So asks the media, with a smirk. But of course, this is how the left-of-center media, and liberals generally, want it. The weakest and most obviously false conservative arguments are promulgated and shared and repeated because the strongest conservative arguments- that human differences, biological and cultural, are largely impossible to assuage deliberately through programs or policies, and that innovations and transformations in social arrangements carry large and lasting costs – are systematically shunned in polite society and acceptable speech.




5. We caught a gent last Christmas with Ł400-worth of stolen books in his trousers and elsewhere. We grabbed all of the bags back, but he returned about half an hour later to reclaim a half-bottle of whisky and his dream journal, which had been at the bottom of one of the bags of stolen books. As we showed him the door he told us: ‘I hope you’ll consider this in the Žižekian spirit, as a radical reappropriation of knowledge.’




6. Even what people take to be their most personal desires are usually programmed by the imagined order. Let’s consider, for example, the popular desire to take a holiday abroad. There is nothing natural or obvious about this. A chimpanzee alpha male would never think of using his power in order to go on holiday into the territory of a neighbouring chimpanzee band. The elite of ancient Egypt spent their fortunes building pyramids and having their corpses mummified, but none of them thought of going shopping in Babylon or taking a skiing holiday in Phoenicia. People today spend a great deal of money on holidays abroad because they are true believers in the myths of romantic consumerism.

Romanticism, which encourages variety, meshes perfectly with consumerism. Their marriage has given birth to the infinite ‘market of experiences’, on which the modern tourism industry is founded. The tourism industry does not sell flight tickets and hotel bedrooms. It sells experiences. Paris is not a city, nor India a country – they are both experiences, the consumption of which is supposed to widen our horizons, fulfil our human potential, and make us happier.




7. We like to think that “the marketplace of ideas” assures that public discourse in liberal democracies will meet certain standards—that because public figures, including prominent journalists, will be held accountable for misrepresentation, they have a strong interest in getting their facts right, so that if an idea is broadly accepted, one can pretty much assume that it is correct. But those mechanisms are a good deal weaker than people think, and it is in fact shocking to see what even major figures were able to get away with.


X

19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: In general, which are better places to live? on: September 04, 2017, 09:26:27 pm
I refuse to live anywhere without sidewalks as long as I have a choice, and I have no interest in homeownership. Hard to think of any >80% Romney precincts that satisfy both criteria that wouldn't be unbearable because of some other idiosyncrasy.

For the record, until recently I *did* live in an >80% Obama precinct, where rent began at $600 per month, and where I felt safer walking alone at night than I do in my current ~55% Obama precinct in the heart of a once-proud small Northeastern city that has since degenerated to what might be charitably described as an inhabited ruin, and where the only people on the streets past 7 p.m. are various stripes of delinquents, derelicts, and addicts.

I know this is really old, but I stumbled on this thread and I'm quite curious how your precinct voted in 2016 -- sounds like Trump country to me

Ahahahaha, oh dear.

This thread is full of sad memories from a more innocent time. It's odd to look at a post dated from 2015 with longing for those halcyon days of endless summer. My precinct did, in fact, go for Trump, albeit by single digits.

Also, the several blocks of vacant space left in the middle of downtown by a hospital demolished in 2015 are - wait for it - still vacant. In fact, the developers, who have close ties to the Cuomo administration, are under indictment on corruption charges.

So, thank you Donald Trump, thank you Andrew Cuomo, thank you Paul Ryan, thank you Barack Obama, thank you Hillary Clinton, thank you every other politician who bears responsibility for this hollowed out landscape of faded dreams and crushed ambitions that I inhabit. We could not have done it without you.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: August 24, 2017, 08:40:59 pm
Back the first episode of this season -does anyone think Tyrion (for personal reasons) deliberately sent the Greyjoys and the Martells to their doom in full knowledge that Euron and his ships were waiting for them?  I find it hard to believe that he proved to be so incompetent in light of how well he conducted the defense of Kings Landing during the Battle of Blackwater.  What he did only makes sense if he held a grudge against Theon for betraying the Starks and sending Bran and Rickon to their deaths (he didn't yet know that Bran survived), and Ellaria and her Sand Snakes for poisoning Myrcella. 

The relevant difference here is that the Tyrion who defended Kings Landing is the Tyrion written by George R.R. Martin and the Tyrion who has provided Dany with reliably terrible advice is written by the careless dopes who created this television series.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: August 21st, American Solar Eclipse, will you be watching? on: August 22, 2017, 10:22:33 pm
Take days off work, get kid out of school, drive 2.5 hours with car full of family, rent a house and we saw the first 3 minutes through the clouds and about 15 seconds through the clouds maybe a minute before totality.  Everything else was 100% overcast. 


It was still cool, but also disappointing.

That's unfortunate. I wasn't far away (Beatrice), where it was overcast, even raining a few hours before, but just clear enough during the totality to see it pretty clearly. Impressive and more than worth the long drive.

Traffic was crazy on the way out toward the south. It was an odd experience - driving eastward across nearly empty east-west highways in cornfield Kansas and passing several bumper-to-bumper lines of traffic on crossroads extending God only knows how far north or south.
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: August 22, 2017, 10:18:35 pm
Ugh I caved to pressure and read all the leaks, and now I know how the rest of the season plays out. Obviously I won't spoil anything here.

Good news: None of it has been very good anyway and the only reason to watch at this point is "to see what happens." Catch the more impressive visual effects off of YouTube and don't bother with the filler.
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2017 House Election on: August 18, 2017, 09:47:42 am
1. Abolish the House
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Hillary Clinton might go into ministry on: August 09, 2017, 08:08:37 pm
Neither Clinton or Trump qualify as true Christians. At least Trump is willing to help us accomplish our goals. Clinton would never appoint someone like Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.

Yeah, why would anyone keep their religious and politicsl beliefs separate?

^This but unironically.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why is there so much paranoia in American society? Why is fake news so powerful? on: August 08, 2017, 05:55:48 am
But as for the topic sentence... other societies and cultures are MUCH more conspiracy-prone than American culture. I'm thinking of Middle Eastern culture in particular.

"Middle Eastern culture" ???
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