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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 17, 2016, 07:04:17 pm
Is Johnson Country legit or a glitch. Clinton at almost 70% in an eastern country?!

Reporting error.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does this forum completely fail to understand working class whites? on: May 14, 2016, 06:33:24 pm
Time to get back to the most important city in America again. This thread caused me to look into the percentage of those below the poverty level in Hudson, and guess what. It turns out, that the percentage of whites below the poverty line (21%), is slightly higher than the black percentage (19%). Hispanics, relatively few in Hudson, are much higher, at something like 40%.

I wonder in how many other cities, that is true, that there are a higher percentage of whites who are poor, than blacks.

I doubt that the difference that you are citing amounts to anything significant, given the probable MoE on the five-year ACS estimates for a minority sub-population in a city of Hudson's size. The same is true of Watertown: The poverty rate for whites is somewhat higher compared to the total population, and the poverty rate for blacks is somewhat lower. The fact that members of racial and ethnic minority groups in the area are disproportionately likely to be members of military families makes this difference plausible, but ACS estimates are not precise enough to demonstrate that it exists.

Out of curiosity, I took a quick look at the ACS data for urban area clusters. The largest urban area cluster that I see in the 2010-2014 estimates that does not show a significantly lower poverty rate among white non-Hispanics compared to blacks is Honolulu - which ranks 53rd by population, with ~800k people. There are about a dozen urban area clusters in the top 500 by population - including Watertown - in which there is no significant measured difference, most of them with very low black population shares.

The only cluster in the top 500 for which the black poverty rate is actually lower than the white non-Hispanic rate is Carson City, NV. But the black population here is extremely small, comprising barely 500 out of 55,000 residents. I found two clusters with a black population of at least 1,000 where the estimated poverty rate was higher for whites: Sierra View--Indian Mountain Lake, PA, and Portsmouth, OH--KY. The contrast between the two is rather dramatic: The former is a cluster of vacation communities in the Poconos, with poverty rates for both groups well below national and regional averages, while the latter is a deindustrialized basket case with a poverty rate of close to 30% among non-Hispanic whites and one of the worst drug problems of any rural area in the country.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET) on: May 10, 2016, 11:17:08 pm
Honestly, that map makes Ohio stand out just as much. I still don't get why Sanders collapsed so badly in Ohio. I mean, I'm not saying he should've won it, but if demographics really are destiny, he probably should've only lost it by 3-4%.

Yes, while there are other relevant factors esp. wrt voting rules and local party strength, the most obvious distortion in the Democratic map in this part of the country is that the Ohio Republican primary attracted a lot of voters who would have voted in the Democratic contest in most other states.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET) on: May 10, 2016, 10:23:43 pm
So, despite the gloating, the Nebraska primary is likely to be pretty close after all, I guess?

I mean, even if it was a tie that would be a 14 point swing. That would actually be similar to Texas in 2008. The primary and caucus were held on the same day. Hillary won the primary by 4 but lost the caucus by 12.

Hahaha, I didn't remember that. They were actually held on the same day?!? Insanity.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET) on: May 10, 2016, 10:18:56 pm
So, despite the gloating, the Nebraska primary is likely to be pretty close after all, I guess?
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does this forum completely fail to understand working class whites? on: May 10, 2016, 09:17:07 pm
Yes, and, as with most invocations of the term, the "white" bit is unnecessary.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 10, 2016, 05:37:05 pm
I wouldn't go so far as to say that "nothing [not easily predicted] has happened," however. Sure, most of the major plot developments that we've seen have been the subject of theories and speculation for years, but there are also plenty of credible theories that either have not occurred or have been outright contradicted by events in the show.

Such as? I agree, btw, on the point of them not knowing where Martin is going. That is why I think they are afraid of deviating and are trying to buy time.

A sizable minority of readers believed that Jon Snow wasn't coming back, for instance, and close to a majority were convinced that the Hound was really dead until the show began to drop hints that he is alive. Events in Dorne, Meereen, and the North resemble the books so loosely that it's even difficult to compare them at this point: Who could imagine Daenerys getting captured as she's standing next one of her dragons? And I'm still trying to make sense of why the show mutineers chose to strike when they did, in the absence of Jon's decision which spurred them to action in the books...
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 09, 2016, 05:11:30 pm
I wouldn't go so far as to say that "nothing [not easily predicted] has happened," however. Sure, most of the major plot developments that we've seen have been the subject of theories and speculation for years, but there are also plenty of credible theories that either have not occurred or have been outright contradicted by events in the show.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 09, 2016, 05:06:30 pm
It's really beginning to look like they're gonna run the book plot with Stannis v Bolton but with Jon Snow taking Stannis' place.

In the grand scheme of things this suggests to me that they're stalling the important plot lines, holding out hope for GRRM to finish the next book. I mean, 3 episodes in and what we're seeing is essentially resolving sideshow plots like Stannis and Dorne and essentially getting nowhere on the big stuff.

So far nothing has happened in the show this season that hasn't either already happened in the books or was very easily predicted after the last book (like the return of Snow).

My suspicion is that GRRM's "outline" of how the series will conclude is much less detailed than the show's producers had lead its audience to believe.

The amount of outright retconning that we've seen since the show began to pass the books suggests to me that its remaining seasons are not likely to resemble the written story in anything other than broadest details of their conclusion, and possibly not even in most of those. This would also explain why the behavior of several characters, most notably Davos, Littlefinger, and Varys, and literally every character in Dorne, ceased to make any kind of sense given their established characteristics and motivations once their respective arcs passed or departed from events in the books (i.e. they are simply doing whatever needs to be done to move the plot forward).

Of course, there's also the show's timeline, which has become such a mess that it's hardly even worth mentioning...
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Green Party presidential primary results on: May 07, 2016, 07:43:17 pm
Why do the percentages sum to more than 100%?
11  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / What does the red mean? on: May 07, 2016, 06:43:16 pm
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: AP Exams on: May 07, 2016, 06:40:14 pm
My high school didn't offer AP courses, and I think it would have been over an hour's drive to take the exams. (Not that there'd have been much point in doing that, anyway.)
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Fans of Star Wars! What's your favorite movie in the franchise so far? on: May 07, 2016, 06:35:15 pm
My answer is basically the critical consensus: Empire and Hope are good, Return and Awakens are at least okay despite some flaws, and the prequels are garbage.

My only contrarian take is that The Phantom Menace, while still pretty bad, is a whole lot better than either of the other prequel films. I'm pretty sure that it was someone here - maybe Gully? - who helped to convince me of this.
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 07, 2016, 06:24:10 pm
Love how they trolled the fans for a week about Jon Snow.

Either way we need George RR Martin to get off his fat lazy ass and write the next two books. He's gotten caught up in his own fame and worthless blogging, every normal person would have been fired long ago. Send out the goon squads and beat him until he finishes it.
and it's got nothing to do with fame, he took forever to write sh**t before the fame too.

First 3 books written in 4 years, then they became popular and he started slacking. Next 2 books 11 years, up to 5 years now, likely a year or two more before the next book, it's pathetic.

There are better authors who can put out a book every year or every other year. That's because they treat writing as their job and write 8 hours a day instead of blogging.

As for Malcolm X, yes he does owe us. He signed a contract and is supposed to do his job and write the book. Last year he said he "put away all his side projects and conventions to write seriously" meaning he's been faffing about for the last few years not caring. Any regular person would be fired a long time ago. He's also doesn't care about the story either, said if he does he will make it so no one can finish his books.

A question worth pondering: Are you as stupid as your posting history here suggests, or are you really just that much of a brute?
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of MasterJedi on: May 07, 2016, 06:22:38 pm
It is always awful when a person is too dull to realize the cruelty of his own behavior.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 11:20:03 pm

The Twin Cities required minimal guesswork based on the reported results: IIRC, it's mathematically possible, but extremely unlikely, that my estimate produced the wrong gradient in - I think - only two counties.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 11:14:14 pm
RIP decent looking primary map

It's not so bad, actually: http://i.imgur.com/6NfRLiS.png
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 11:04:03 pm
Turnout in Perry County:

Democrats: 2472
Republicans: 2414

It also appears to be Clinton's fourth best county in the state, after Ohio (very small number of votes), Scott, and Lake.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 08:13:21 pm
MSNBC has called Indiana for Sanders.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 06:49:56 pm
Am I the only one who's sick of Bernie's canned Wall Street speeches schtick?

They're not really written for the sake of those of us who will see them a dozen times on CSPAN. Tongue
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 06:37:37 pm
A lot of the rural counties are starting to flip to Sanders.

Yeah, Sanders leads in all of about a half dozen counties that have finished or nearly finished reporting.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 06:29:10 pm
I agree with having open and semi closed primaries.

Okay here's a theory - are there any particularly hipster/whiter areas of Indianapolis? Maybe that's the areas currently reporting.

Word among elections followers on Twitter is that, just as in a lot of other cities, the white neighborhoods of Indianapolis and its satellite cities tend to report earlier.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: April 29, 2016, 09:28:57 pm
I eagerly await some gorgeous maps of New York from this thread. Cheesy

Unless our state's county-level elections departments have drastically changed their habits, it might be a while. realisticidealist has been great at scrounging up enough data to create these maps, but I'll be shocked if he were able to acquire precinct-level results for all of New York State within the next several weeks.
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: April 28, 2016, 09:29:05 pm
The show has had a couple of weak season openers but that was... not very good.

That said, I'm feeling weirdly unenthusiastic about the show passing the books and almost everything new has felt a bit hollow to me in the absence of the groundwork set out by Martin's writing in concert with my imagination. Maybe it's just me. Even so, I have trouble imagining what the logic behind most of this episode was, particularly the botched late-term abortion of the Dorne plot. 
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: So I went to Hillary's rally in Philly...(and her victory party!) on: April 27, 2016, 06:22:53 pm
IceSpear is a real person? *faints*

Yes.  Utterly frightening.  Thankfully, IceMan's strategically-shot close-in shots would have it seem attendance did not crack 1,000.  Must've been BINGO night at community centre. 

Meh, you can take the yuge rallies, I'll take the win. Seems like a fair trade, right? Wink

Yea, I'll take the enthusiasm all day, but as I tell the Hillbots in my own family; you might think you're "winning", but when Ms. Clinton sells you down the river I shalt not be the shoulder for you to cry on.   

Can't wait until you become a Hillary hack after she brings the GOP to heel. Smiley

I probably would, but that's not happening.  The GOP leadership is more well-funded than "super-predators".

Or, as we learned today, some of them are literally super-predators.
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