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April 30, 2016, 10:06:50 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: April 29, 2016, 09:28:57 pm
I eagerly await some gorgeous maps of New York from this thread. Cheesy

Unless our state's county-level elections departments have drastically changed their habits, it might be a while. realisticidealist has been great at scrounging up enough data to create these maps, but I'll be shocked if he were able to acquire precinct-level results for all of New York State within the next several weeks.
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: April 28, 2016, 09:29:05 pm
The show has had a couple of weak season openers but that was... not very good.

That said, I'm feeling weirdly unenthusiastic about the show passing the books and almost everything new has felt a bit hollow to me in the absence of the groundwork set out by Martin's writing in concert with my imagination. Maybe it's just me. Even so, I have trouble imagining what the logic behind most of this episode was, particularly the botched late-term abortion of the Dorne plot. 
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: So I went to Hillary's rally in Philly...(and her victory party!) on: April 27, 2016, 06:22:53 pm
IceSpear is a real person? *faints*

Yes.  Utterly frightening.  Thankfully, IceMan's strategically-shot close-in shots would have it seem attendance did not crack 1,000.  Must've been BINGO night at community centre. 

Meh, you can take the yuge rallies, I'll take the win. Seems like a fair trade, right? Wink

Yea, I'll take the enthusiasm all day, but as I tell the Hillbots in my own family; you might think you're "winning", but when Ms. Clinton sells you down the river I shalt not be the shoulder for you to cry on.   

Can't wait until you become a Hillary hack after she brings the GOP to heel. Smiley

I probably would, but that's not happening.  The GOP leadership is more well-funded than "super-predators".

Or, as we learned today, some of them are literally super-predators.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which VP pick was worse? on: April 27, 2016, 06:19:28 pm
It's not a "VP pick" if you haven't been nominated, obviously.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George Takei: Stay United on: April 27, 2016, 06:17:47 pm
John Breckenridge / Larry McDonald because vote Democratic no matter what.

ok Oldiesfreak
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz major announcement at 4 PM on: April 27, 2016, 12:33:15 pm
Maybe he's trying to bait Trump into making sexist comments? Bizarre and desperate imo. Do California Repiblicans even care about Sneed?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are we overdue for a presidential landslide (double-digit win) in 2016? on: April 24, 2016, 11:04:27 am
No. If we get a landslide in 2016, it will say more about how bizarre this cycle has been than anything else. Granted, things may stay weird for the foreseeable future...
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The CrabCake Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: April 24, 2016, 09:31:50 am
Side note:
Let's not forget that Lewinsky has 50% to blame, for the affair she had with Bill Clinton (It takes two to tango.)
She was an adult, and made a choice to "involve" herself with a man, who she knew was married.
And by making this choice, Lewinsky provoked the expected anger of the married woman (Mrs. Clinton). (What did you expect ..... for Hillary to bake Lewinsky a cake ?)

I've long thought that the House of Representatives dropped the ball by only impeaching Bill Clinton as president, and not also impeaching Monica Lewinsky as White House intern.

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders campaign brings up Monica Lewinsky in attack on Clinton on: April 24, 2016, 09:16:46 am
clinton's actions w/r/t her husband's long history of rape and abuse are absolutely a relevant issue to her qualifications as president. it's disgraceful that some of you expect people to ignore serious moral failures just because they happen to have been committed by a member of their own party.

Welcome to the past twenty-five years of internal Democratic politics. There are very few nationally prominent Democrats in this country whose political careers have never depended on pretending that Bill Clinton is anything other than a national disgrace.

It is not good politics for anyone within the Sanders campaign to focus on this, for obvious reasons. And there is an element of unfairness in targeting Hillary without acknowledging that much of the Democratic Party shares in her complicity. Obviously, going to war with the entire party in 2015 because it didn't treat Bill Clinton like Andrew Johnson in 1998 wouldn't make much sense either.

That said, it amazes me that so many Democrats continue to bristle when forced to confront the fact that Bill Clinton is a sexual predator - and one who routinely used his power and influence to intimidate and to shame women, especially Lewinsky, into silence. The latter fact taints the reputation of almost anyone who has ever been a member of Bill Clinton's inner circle, and I hope that someday when enough time has passed and enough important people are dead, the Democratic Party will be willing to reckon with this.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you prefer Vox or Upworthy? on: April 21, 2016, 09:13:35 pm
I dislike Vox (although Yglesias and Matthews are often worth reading), literally never read Upworthy. Voted Upworthy anyway out of spite.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When did Clinton become the prohibitive favorite? on: April 21, 2016, 07:20:05 pm
~late 2014, possibly much earlier
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill Clinton SLAMS Millenials! on: April 21, 2016, 07:16:43 pm
I agree. The voting age should have been lowered to 15, allowing me to vote in 2010.

But that would let a good portion of my classmates vote in 2018 and 2020, and that's how we end up with President Kanye West.

Right, just like how if we ended felon disenfranchisement they'd probably all vote to make crime legal. Herp derp.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill Clinton SLAMS Millenials! on: April 21, 2016, 06:24:57 pm
I know that it's just politics-as-cheerleading, but the cadre of Clinton supporters who have used the Sanders campaign as an excuse to whine about (other) millennials is one of the most embarrassing things that I've seen on this forum in this entire election cycle. Trashing a demographic group because it doesn't vote the way that you think it should, or because it fails to turn out as you think it should, is cringeworthy.

Of course young people are less likely to turn out, literally everyone knows that. Demonizing them doesn't help to explain why they're not voting, nor does it do anything to help us understand how to change that.

(Oh, it hardly needs saying, but the idea of the guy who was president fifteen years ago - during the roaring deregulation of the nineties, no less! - blaming people who mostly weren't eligible to vote until 2008 or later for today's economic problems is downright comical.)
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Pick your Cabinet using Atlas Posters! on: April 20, 2016, 06:54:34 pm
These are always a fun excuse to remind yourself of what agencies fall within each department:

VP: Polnut
State: Al
Treasury: DFB
Defense: Talleyrand
Attorney General: Bacon King
Labor & Commerce: Eraserhead
HHS: evergreen
HUD: traininthedistance
Energy: Politicus
Transportation: Simfan
Interior: Lewis
Agriculture: linusvanpelt
Education: Gully Foyle
VA: Clarence / Hockeydude
Homeland Security: Ebowed
 
Chair of Federal Reserve: Alcon
Chief of Staff: Adam Griffin
Ambassador to the United Nations: Antonio
Press Secretary: Nathan
CIA Director: Tweed
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Sanders nuclear option: How would it play out? on: April 20, 2016, 11:35:05 am
Someone pointed out yesterday that Sandrs is in line to chair the Senate budget committee if Democrats take the Senate. In terms of giving him a place of influence and visibility in government, it's difficult to imagine any kind of position in a Clinton administration - including the vice presidency, not that it's even at stake - beating that.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) on: April 19, 2016, 07:24:25 pm


This map tells me that Drumpf will sweep Mohawk Valley and Western NY.

There's a lot of evidence that Trump has done worse with white people of German ancestry than with white people in general, so I'm not sure about that.  Of course, German is the plurality white ancestry nationwide, so we don't know if those counties are actually more German than the national average.

Intersting, I wonder if that varies by when those settled here, I have to imagine the Germans settled in New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland came much earlier than those in the midwest.

Do we have any info on how Trump does among those of Scottish, Irish and Scotch-Irish descent?  I imagine thats his best white demographic

Also were is that map from I want a copy for MD Smiley

17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) on: April 19, 2016, 05:30:28 pm
14% of Democrats are most concerned about "terrorism"? New York values at work!
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Predicts - New York on: April 19, 2016, 04:02:08 pm
60% Clinton
40% Sanders

55% Trump
30% Kasich
15% Cruz

Trump probably wins every county but Kasich may come close in parts of Central NY, Northern NY, the Capital Region, and the Mid-Hudson. (Which are also the same where Sanders is likely to do well and win quite a few counties.)
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie eats like a KING on donor-funded vacation to Italy! on: April 16, 2016, 02:26:02 pm
No, this is eating like a king:



Frankly, that flight menu looks like an ordeal. I'd take lentil soup over anything described in that kind of ridiculous, pretentious language any day.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: John Kerry as VP? on: April 12, 2016, 10:26:37 pm
That's... not actually a terrible pick? (If you're concerned with picking a VP based on qualifications to be president and not as a mostly futile, half-assed attempt to appeal to a geographic or demographic block of voters...)
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: America's most trusted newspaper, the New York Daily News, endorses Hillary! on: April 12, 2016, 10:10:07 pm
Significant blow to the Sanders campaign among the "readers of trashy, exploitative left-of-center tabloids" demographic.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Progressive Groups Targeting Julian Castro's HUD Record on: April 12, 2016, 11:32:42 am
Not really sure what to make of someone who responds to concerns about justice in housing with "solve for equilibrium hero derp." I'm pretty sure that Nathan wasn't suggesting that everyone be given a 3k square foot McMansion with a four-car garage in the exurbs. The notion that the United States can't afford, say, some kind of social housing guarantee (or any of an array of reforms to federal housing policy to make it more fair, pro-social, and sustainable) is laughable.

(And, if you're really concerned about efficiency, it would probably cost less than the home mortgage deduction!)

Housing policy is something of a side-interest/passion of mine. I don't think Castro has done a terrible job given the status of the market as it exists today, and these people are not being particularly fair to him, but there is space on the left for some bold housing reform because it really is a messed up, unfair, inefficient, environmentally unsustainable and unjust. I just don't think the job of HUD Sexretary is where you make that change from. It has to be much, much bigger than that.

I mostly agree. But some federal regulations (and stipulations for grant money) have historically done a great deal of harm, and that's the kind of reform that I would like to see any HUD secretary tackling a lot more heavily than Castro has to date.
23  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: How would you solve the student debt crisis? on: April 12, 2016, 11:29:02 am
What makes you think a kid that dropped out of Community College would do better at four year school?  I agree the 12% number sucks, but I don't see how it would be any better if they started at a 4 year school instead of a CC.  It's a different type of person that goes to CC instead of a Uni.

Of course - I noted as much in an earlier post. I just had to go back to this discussion when I was reminded of how stark the numbers are. Even if you have some good reasons for believing that you're in that more resilient 12% - what's the risk that you aren't? Moreover how likely is it that an atmosphere like that will harm your prospects?

If you're from a middle class family and you know lots of college graduates and you're heavily involved in your community, maybe not so much. But if you're relying on community college as your ladder to the middle class - and these are precisely the people who are hit most heavily by undergraduate loans - that's a big deal.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Progressive Groups Targeting Julian Castro's HUD Record on: April 12, 2016, 11:19:50 am
Not really sure what to make of someone who responds to concerns about justice in housing with "solve for equilibrium hero derp." I'm pretty sure that Nathan wasn't suggesting that everyone be given a 3k square foot McMansion with a four-car garage in the exurbs. The notion that the United States can't afford, say, some kind of social housing guarantee (or any of an array of reforms to federal housing policy to make it more fair, pro-social, and sustainable) is laughable.

(And, if you're really concerned about efficiency, it would probably cost less than the home mortgage deduction!)
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Progressive Groups Targeting Julian Castro's HUD Record on: April 12, 2016, 10:37:33 am
ok but Hillary isn't progressive enough, either.

All the more reason for her to select a progressive running-mate acceptable to Sanders' supporters. 

Castro's problem is not so much about insufficient credibility on the left as it is about insufficient credibility, period. There's very little in his record that would establish whether or not he's a "true progressive" or whatever, but that's mostly because there's very little there to establish much of anything.
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