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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: SC-Opinion Saavy: Trump 36% Cruz 20% Rubio 15% Bush 11% Kasich 9% Carson 5% on: Today at 12:01:26 pm
Rubio's number isn't as awful as some of us had suspected it could be, but if Kasich is actually closing on double digits that is terrible news for him. It points to the same kind of non-Trump pile-up that we saw in New Hampshire, with no clear winner for the portion of the party that isn't interested in Trump or Cruz. It also suggests that much of that portion of the party remains unconvinced that Rubio is a credible candidate.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nevada Democratic Demographics on: Today at 10:32:55 am
Race and ethnicity are not the only demographic challenges for Sanders in New Hampshire. Las Vegas is closer to being a major city than any place that has voted so far, and Sanders has never competed in a metro area larger than Burlington or Des Moines. We don't know how he'll perform outside of the rural/small town to small city pattern of development that dominates Iowa, New Hampshire, and his home state.

On a related note, contrast the built environment in Nevada with that in Iowa or New Hampshire. Neighborhoods don't function in the same way, and people have altered routines and behaviors as a result of these differences. It is a another world, and one that I imagine must seem very alien to a candidate like Sanders.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WHO won the PBS Democratic debate? on: February 11, 2016, 11:00:33 pm
All that I'll say is that I'd been hoping for someone to take Clinton to task over Kissinger like that for a long, long time.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: First and Second Choice for President on: February 11, 2016, 06:45:43 pm
Hell will freeze over before I support any of the buffoons running for President on the GOP side.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders campaign apparently randomly listing endorsements on: February 08, 2016, 11:21:15 pm
The difference between releasing her name and releasing her title, which is explained in the e-mail, should be apparent to any half-literate person.

And I'm not sure how it makes sense for a person to serve on a steering committee - publicly, knowing that her name would be released - for a candidate you aren't supporting. That was not my impression of how these things work. We don't even know how the campaign published her name, in any case. At least I haven't seen it.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RUBIO DOES IT AGAIN! on: February 08, 2016, 10:56:46 pm
The oddest thing is that Rubio seems to be claiming that Obama despite his limited resume, given his ends, had superb judgment and skill in reaching them, and was most competent, and if only he had agreed with Rubio's world view, he would have been the next best to Abraham Lincoln? He was a fail sole because he had the wrong ends. Really? And of course the dumbs in the press don't get to this little point at all. The press folks should all be fired, and replaced with smart lawyers. Most of them are just pathetic.

And there you have it.

Anyone disagree? I thought not. Thanks for listening.

He's dog-whistling a common conservative conspiracy theory which overlaps with the idea that Obama's values somehow deviate from the American mainstream. Romney was doing something similar with his line about Obama wanting to "fundamentally transform" the country. Gingrich tried to make the case outright when he bewildered all but the most clued-in primary voters with the Saul Alinsky references.

In Rubio's case, it's an especially convenient narrative because it deflects from the opposite idea that Obama is incompetent and was unprepared to take office. That would be a difficult argument for Rubio to make without undermining his own credibility as a candidate, for obvious reasons.

No lawyers covering the news, please, I prefer journalists who know how to write.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders campaign apparently randomly listing endorsements on: February 08, 2016, 10:44:44 pm
Here's the e-mail exchange released by the Sanders campaign, FWIW. Not looking like a story unless there's more to this:

8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Unintended consequences of Obamacare's "coverage up to age 26" rule on: February 08, 2016, 10:19:48 pm
1) $7k can be a lot of money even for someone who, on paper, is earning that much income. (Moreover, someone with a serious illness frequently will not be sustaining their previous level of income.)

2) Ignorant people still need health insurance, Medicaid expansion could be decades away in some states, and even the new income threshold excludes plenty of people for whom subsidized plans are a substantial financial burden.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Unintended consequences of Obamacare's "coverage up to age 26" rule on: February 08, 2016, 09:57:25 pm
Believe or not, close to $7000 is a lot of money for many people. Especially those who are too sick to hold a job. There are a lot of households that can't handle an unforeseen expense like that without getting into what is, for them, a serious amount of debt, potentially serious enough to eventually lose a house or a car over if it spirals further out of their ability to pay.

Also, let's not forget that ~25M people still lack insurance, for a wide variety of reasons, and few are prepared for a catastrophic medical bill. We do not have "universal coverage" and never will without serious policy changes. Argue that those changes wouldn't be worth it, if you want, but that's the system that we have.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Elizabeth Warren be doing if she was running instead of Sanders? on: February 08, 2016, 09:04:32 pm
I'm inclined to think that she would be winning.

But, and this is important, that's contingent on her running a competent campaign, or even somewhat better than competent. Sanders has done this - a few notable mid-steps aside, his organization had been solid. And it's not really something that can be hand-waved. Sanders' unique personal history and personality have a lot to do with him becoming a sensation, but it's keeping his organization together that explains why he's winning states.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Weighs Staff Shake-Up After NH on: February 08, 2016, 05:49:03 pm
Apparently Mark Penn is still involved with Clinton's campaign? I'd laugh if she weren't the presumptive nominee.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Albright poll: Women will go to Hell if they don't vote for Hillary on: February 08, 2016, 05:43:02 pm
It's a bit staggering that anyone is defending this particular deployment of that line.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillaryunleashes her latest watchdog - Bill Clinton - It is getting ugly on: February 08, 2016, 11:15:02 am
I believe the appropriate phrase for outbursts like this one is "sweating like a dog."
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gloriana Steinem : Young women are for Bernie as that's where the boys are on: February 08, 2016, 08:46:02 am
As I mull over the Clinton campaign's last couple of weeks, my sentiments about it only worsen. I can't remember another political candidacy that has come across so condescendingly toward younger voters.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you vote for in Andrew Cuomo vs. Donald Trump for NY Governor? on: February 07, 2016, 04:54:06 pm
Donald Trump. Andrew Cuomo's political career has to be totally over at that point, right?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How pathetic will this board look on tuesday night when rubio comes in 2nd? on: February 07, 2016, 04:14:23 pm
My prediction is that this board's reaction will look correct until Rubio gives a victory speech after finishing third, behind Trump and Kasich, with about 15% of the vote, and the punditocracy spend the next two weeks raving about it.

If he does much worse than that, though, the election might be all but over for him. Republicans can then move on to supporting a candidate who can at least convincingly pretend that he is prepared to govern the country.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Sandernistas react once Clinton gets the nomination? on: February 07, 2016, 04:07:02 pm
I will vote for the Democratic nominee, but I would be lying if I didn't admit that certain things about Clinton give me serious pause. I am extremely apprehensive about what she might do if elected, although I know that the Republican Party will not offer me any real choice.

I thought it was extremely telling to see her touting Kissinger's endorsement at the most recent debate, for instance. I've held a low opinion of Clinton throughout my entire adult life, and this primary campaign has only worsened it. I'm bothered by her substantive record, I doubt her integrity, I believe that she is captive to interest groups whose agendas are at odds with those of poor and working class Americans, and I've never been convinced that she shares my values.

It doesn't help that I expect that Clinton will lose unless the Republicans totally sabotage themselves (and she has a strong chance of losing even if they do). I am very pessimistic about November; Clinton's favorability rating is currently about as low as any recent major party nominee - winning or losing - and I do not expect it to improve. I am skeptical about whether she would win a more heavily contested Democratic primary, e.g. if she were facing opponents with broader appeal like Biden, Warren, or Gillibrand. But she locked up so much institutional support prior to early 2015 that Democratic voters were denied that choice, and we may have a historically weak nominee as a result.

My only real hope, in terms of the general election, is that Democrats successfully defend all of their seats in the Senate and House and improve on their abysmal recent results in state-level races.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gloriana Steinem : Young women are for Bernie as that's where the boys are on: February 07, 2016, 09:47:53 am
Appearing on Real Time aside notorious clownish idiot Bill Maher tends to have a stupefying effect on people. Sad.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has Rubio been definitively exposed as a lightweight? on: February 07, 2016, 09:25:41 am
He's certainly been exposed as something.

20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio's "let's dispel with this fiction" gaffe become his "Oops" moment? on: February 07, 2016, 08:45:03 am
What helps Rubio, if anything, is that unlike Perry's 'oops', Rubio's stuff-up needs to be explained and given context.

Christie wraps it up nicely at the end of most of the 30-second replays we're seeing ("There it is!"). No additional context is necessary.

Perhaps more importantly, this doesn't need to damage Rubio that much among voters if it changes how the media and certain party insiders interpret his candidacy. Even if we assume that he does about as well as he seemed likely to do before the debate, will he be able to get away with claiming 20% and second place as a victory because he's the only candidate who's treated as a credible nominee? That's looking more doubtful.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict NH GOP results (post-debate) on: February 07, 2016, 08:31:42 am
29% - Trump
13% - Kasich
13% - Rubio
13% - Cruz
13% - Christie
13% - Jeb
3% - Carson
2% - Fiorina FATALITY

55% - Sanders
45% - Clinton
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Favourite David Bowie album(s) on: February 07, 2016, 02:40:30 am
Ziggy Stardust and the Berlin Trilogy are what stand out to me.

If I were limited to picking only my favorite album, I'd go with Low, and it's not even close.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why Is Atlas So Anti-Rubio on: February 07, 2016, 01:12:25 am
To reiterate what I've said elsewhere: Rubio seems genuinely unprepared to be president to almost anyone who bothers to look at him closely. Yet he combines this with being a relatively capable candidate. What's not scary about that?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio CRASHING on PredictIt on: February 07, 2016, 12:30:09 am
Well there's no way a Republican wins in November after tonight.

I wish.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio implode? on: February 07, 2016, 12:29:18 am
Not surprisingly, the Jeb campaign is openly claiming that donors who were wavering before the debate have been calling them to express renewed support.
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