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June 25, 2016, 03:52:34 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Jill Stein qualified to be president of the United States of America? on: June 23, 2016, 04:30:09 pm
Whoever panders to the anti-vaxx crowd isn't fit to be elected dogcatcher.
When did she do that?
Never, but a certain kind of Very Serious Person likes repeating this lie because they believe that it makes them look smart, and few people follow minor party candidates closely enough to do anything but nod gravely in response.

LOL, someone doesn't read all the previous posts before making a fool of himself.

Oh, you're allowed to post here again? A shame that you didn't take your temp ban as an opportunity to improve your reading comprehension. Or your manners, for that matter.

I think most of us can see who is the one with reading comprehension problems despite the fact that English is his native language.

Hahaha, very witty as usual, Mr. LaRouche.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Jill Stein qualified to be president of the United States of America? on: June 23, 2016, 12:39:41 pm
Whoever panders to the anti-vaxx crowd isn't fit to be elected dogcatcher.
When did she do that?
Never, but a certain kind of Very Serious Person likes repeating this lie because they believe that it makes them look smart, and few people follow minor party candidates closely enough to do anything but nod gravely in response.

LOL, someone doesn't read all the previous posts before making a fool of himself.

Oh, you're allowed to post here again? A shame that you didn't take your temp ban as an opportunity to improve your reading comprehension. Or your manners, for that matter.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Jill Stein qualified to be president of the United States of America? on: June 22, 2016, 09:59:21 pm
Also, the simultaneously obvious and overly clever answer to the question is that no one is actually qualified to be president of the United States.

Who is most qualified, not including Obama? Probably HRC, Biden, and Kerry. There's an argument to be made for someone like Jerry Brown, maybe. But "most qualified" is not the only quality that matters. Would you have voted for Nixon in 1960? Was Humphrey the right pick for Democrats in '68? Should you always vote for the incumbent because he is usually, by any reasonable measure and by a wide margin, more qualified than his challengers? Of course not.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Jill Stein qualified to be president of the United States of America? on: June 22, 2016, 09:50:56 pm
Whoever panders to the anti-vaxx crowd isn't fit to be elected dogcatcher.
When did she do that?
Never, but a certain kind of Very Serious Person likes repeating this lie because they believe that it makes them look smart, and few people follow minor party candidates closely enough to do anything but nod gravely in response.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Libertarian Town Hall watch thread on: June 22, 2016, 09:31:42 pm
Johnson: "I haven't seen a doctor in three years."

That's a little concerning.

For a healthy man in his fifties? Not really. If you're worried about prostate cancer, you can get a FIT test, administer it at home, and mail it directly to the lab for testing. "Wellness visits" don't have proven benefits for adults who are in generally good health, who have no chronic diseases to manage, and who have at least a moderate level of knowledge about recognizing symptoms of serious problems and maintaining personal well-being.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Why does The Left hate Hillary Clinton? on: June 22, 2016, 04:01:27 pm
7  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: How would you solve the student debt crisis? on: June 22, 2016, 03:52:20 pm
As a post-script to my other thoughts here, I am increasingly inclined toward wondering why we shouldn't just replace the last two years of high school with free community college, at least for most students who plan to get a four-year degree. Between AP credits, distance learning, and other programs for advanced learners, this is basically what we are doing anyway. (There are pretty obviously problems with how we do this now, e.g. limited access for students in school districts that are too rural or lacking in funding, or the fact that the AP courses are a something close to a for-profit scam run by the reviled College Board, with rampant problems with cheating and teacher accreditation.)

Anyone who spends much time on college campuses will have run into plenty of traditional first-year students who nonetheless begin college with the equivalent of several semesters of credits that they obtained during high school. For all of the talk about under-prepared students who cannot handle the rigor of introductory coursework, there is also a sizable share of college students who arrive having already completed those courses or their equivalent as a part of their high school education.

Of course, it is worth mentioning that because of issues with grade inflation and educational rigor at community colleges, as well as the high rate of cheating and various strains of pedagogical malpractice in AP programs and their equivalents, this is not a guarantee that those credentials actually mean anything...
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: June 20, 2016, 05:39:35 pm
Increasingly clear just how vanishingly little writing talent there is behind the show in terms of plotting. Whether this is merely because they have outpaced Martin or, more worryingly, because Martin has written the story into a literally unsolvable corner will remain an open question until the next book is out.

Granted, I have only read synopses of the past several episodes and my opinion might change when I view them, but I cannot think of many events within the past two seasons that have had enough thematic or dramatic weight to be interesting. This is beginning to remind me of whenever it was that I gave up on Lost.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Best One-Hit Wonders? on: June 19, 2016, 11:19:16 pm
Carly Rae's new album was great, but it bombed

Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe
Duck Sauce - Barbara Striesand
Gotye - Somebody That I Used To Know
Train - Hey Soul Sister
The Proclaimers - I'm Gonna Be
Carl Douglas - Kung Fu Fighting

Drops of Jupiter was a bigger hit from Train

Not to mention that terrible song where he bragged that his love was a strong as a trash bag.

Fitting metaphor since the trash is exactly where most Train lyrics belong:

On the upside of a downward spiral
My love for you went viral


When you move me everything is groovy
They don't like it sue me
Mmm the way you do me


I'm so obsessed
My heart is bound to beat right out my untrimmed chest


Way you can cut a rug
Watching you's the only drug I need
So gangster, I'm so thug


But unfortunately they are somehow a well-known act with charted hits spanning over a decade.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Historic Hudson Happenings Thread on: June 16, 2016, 03:43:48 pm
I, for one, find Torie's attachment to his town very sympathetic.

Well, the parts of it that flatter his bougie sensibilities, at any rate.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Please post your original 2016 primary map predictions here on: June 14, 2016, 02:46:08 pm
These weren't serious attempts at predictions - I had nearly every state marked as a toss-up on my first set of maps - but they are too funny not to share:



Clinton - 5   
Biden   - 34   
Sanders - 13   



Kasich - 1      
Rubio   - 20   
Cruz - 9   
Trump - 20   
Carson - 2   
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Taking a break on: June 07, 2016, 05:44:59 pm
They hate Sanders because his supporters tended to be too white and male for their taste and being an SJW/PC-warrior is very, very important.

I disagree. For a forum filled with politically-inclined young people, we have remarkably few SJW-type members. Moreover, those members fitting that description who come to mind are mostly Sanders supporters. The crowd of vehemently anti-Sanders Democrats tend to have more in common with what we would have referred to a few years ago as the Very Serious People, and they deploy the Bernie Bro caricature more for the sake of browbeating their opposition than out of any real concern about patriarchy, white supremacy, or anything like that.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 17, 2016, 07:04:17 pm
Is Johnson Country legit or a glitch. Clinton at almost 70% in an eastern country?!

Reporting error.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does this forum completely fail to understand working class whites? on: May 14, 2016, 06:33:24 pm
Time to get back to the most important city in America again. This thread caused me to look into the percentage of those below the poverty level in Hudson, and guess what. It turns out, that the percentage of whites below the poverty line (21%), is slightly higher than the black percentage (19%). Hispanics, relatively few in Hudson, are much higher, at something like 40%.

I wonder in how many other cities, that is true, that there are a higher percentage of whites who are poor, than blacks.

I doubt that the difference that you are citing amounts to anything significant, given the probable MoE on the five-year ACS estimates for a minority sub-population in a city of Hudson's size. The same is true of Watertown: The poverty rate for whites is somewhat higher compared to the total population, and the poverty rate for blacks is somewhat lower. The fact that members of racial and ethnic minority groups in the area are disproportionately likely to be members of military families makes this difference plausible, but ACS estimates are not precise enough to demonstrate that it exists.

Out of curiosity, I took a quick look at the ACS data for urban area clusters. The largest urban area cluster that I see in the 2010-2014 estimates that does not show a significantly lower poverty rate among white non-Hispanics compared to blacks is Honolulu - which ranks 53rd by population, with ~800k people. There are about a dozen urban area clusters in the top 500 by population - including Watertown - in which there is no significant measured difference, most of them with very low black population shares.

The only cluster in the top 500 for which the black poverty rate is actually lower than the white non-Hispanic rate is Carson City, NV. But the black population here is extremely small, comprising barely 500 out of 55,000 residents. I found two clusters with a black population of at least 1,000 where the estimated poverty rate was higher for whites: Sierra View--Indian Mountain Lake, PA, and Portsmouth, OH--KY. The contrast between the two is rather dramatic: The former is a cluster of vacation communities in the Poconos, with poverty rates for both groups well below national and regional averages, while the latter is a deindustrialized basket case with a poverty rate of close to 30% among non-Hispanic whites and one of the worst drug problems of any rural area in the country.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET) on: May 10, 2016, 11:17:08 pm
Honestly, that map makes Ohio stand out just as much. I still don't get why Sanders collapsed so badly in Ohio. I mean, I'm not saying he should've won it, but if demographics really are destiny, he probably should've only lost it by 3-4%.

Yes, while there are other relevant factors esp. wrt voting rules and local party strength, the most obvious distortion in the Democratic map in this part of the country is that the Ohio Republican primary attracted a lot of voters who would have voted in the Democratic contest in most other states.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET) on: May 10, 2016, 10:23:43 pm
So, despite the gloating, the Nebraska primary is likely to be pretty close after all, I guess?

I mean, even if it was a tie that would be a 14 point swing. That would actually be similar to Texas in 2008. The primary and caucus were held on the same day. Hillary won the primary by 4 but lost the caucus by 12.

Hahaha, I didn't remember that. They were actually held on the same day?!? Insanity.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET) on: May 10, 2016, 10:18:56 pm
So, despite the gloating, the Nebraska primary is likely to be pretty close after all, I guess?
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does this forum completely fail to understand working class whites? on: May 10, 2016, 09:17:07 pm
Yes, and, as with most invocations of the term, the "white" bit is unnecessary.
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 10, 2016, 05:37:05 pm
I wouldn't go so far as to say that "nothing [not easily predicted] has happened," however. Sure, most of the major plot developments that we've seen have been the subject of theories and speculation for years, but there are also plenty of credible theories that either have not occurred or have been outright contradicted by events in the show.

Such as? I agree, btw, on the point of them not knowing where Martin is going. That is why I think they are afraid of deviating and are trying to buy time.

A sizable minority of readers believed that Jon Snow wasn't coming back, for instance, and close to a majority were convinced that the Hound was really dead until the show began to drop hints that he is alive. Events in Dorne, Meereen, and the North resemble the books so loosely that it's even difficult to compare them at this point: Who could imagine Daenerys getting captured as she's standing next one of her dragons? And I'm still trying to make sense of why the show mutineers chose to strike when they did, in the absence of Jon's decision which spurred them to action in the books...
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 09, 2016, 05:11:30 pm
I wouldn't go so far as to say that "nothing [not easily predicted] has happened," however. Sure, most of the major plot developments that we've seen have been the subject of theories and speculation for years, but there are also plenty of credible theories that either have not occurred or have been outright contradicted by events in the show.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: May 09, 2016, 05:06:30 pm
It's really beginning to look like they're gonna run the book plot with Stannis v Bolton but with Jon Snow taking Stannis' place.

In the grand scheme of things this suggests to me that they're stalling the important plot lines, holding out hope for GRRM to finish the next book. I mean, 3 episodes in and what we're seeing is essentially resolving sideshow plots like Stannis and Dorne and essentially getting nowhere on the big stuff.

So far nothing has happened in the show this season that hasn't either already happened in the books or was very easily predicted after the last book (like the return of Snow).

My suspicion is that GRRM's "outline" of how the series will conclude is much less detailed than the show's producers had lead its audience to believe.

The amount of outright retconning that we've seen since the show began to pass the books suggests to me that its remaining seasons are not likely to resemble the written story in anything other than broadest details of their conclusion, and possibly not even in most of those. This would also explain why the behavior of several characters, most notably Davos, Littlefinger, and Varys, and literally every character in Dorne, ceased to make any kind of sense given their established characteristics and motivations once their respective arcs passed or departed from events in the books (i.e. they are simply doing whatever needs to be done to move the plot forward).

Of course, there's also the show's timeline, which has become such a mess that it's hardly even worth mentioning...
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Green Party presidential primary results on: May 07, 2016, 07:43:17 pm
Why do the percentages sum to more than 100%?
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / What does the red mean? on: May 07, 2016, 06:43:16 pm
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: AP Exams on: May 07, 2016, 06:40:14 pm
My high school didn't offer AP courses, and I think it would have been over an hour's drive to take the exams. (Not that there'd have been much point in doing that, anyway.)
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Fans of Star Wars! What's your favorite movie in the franchise so far? on: May 07, 2016, 06:35:15 pm
My answer is basically the critical consensus: Empire and Hope are good, Return and Awakens are at least okay despite some flaws, and the prequels are garbage.

My only contrarian take is that The Phantom Menace, while still pretty bad, is a whole lot better than either of the other prequel films. I'm pretty sure that it was someone here - maybe Gully? - who helped to convince me of this.
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