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1726  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 09:30:55 pm
A lot of them are counties where Hawkins performed relatively well in 2010.
1727  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 09:25:17 pm
Carl McCall may have missed out on a golden opportunity!
1728  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 09:21:42 pm
This is on track to be closer than the Cuomo-Paladino result was four years ago, at least. It should be enough to embarrass Cuomo.
1729  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 09:16:43 pm
In the 12 counties where Teachout is in the lead/has won, she got a grand total of 6,096 votes - nearly half of that from Albany. Basically, very low turnout places, no GOTV.

She's leading in 12 counties?? Gonna be so drunk.

More by now. Make sure you drink responsibly Smiley

Teachout is leading or close enough to have a chance in every county between Westchester and Rochester. Even if she falls below 30% statewide, you're not likely to be conscious to find out how many she's won.
1730  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 09:05:27 pm
There seems to be a strong correlation between areas where hydrofracking is a major concern and Teachout's performance in Upstate NY.

Probably also a good indication of where the Democratic machine isn't active. But these are also very small counties, and some don't have many registered Dems; you could probably find larger vote counts in many NYC neighborhoods.
1731  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) on: September 09, 2014, 08:50:03 pm
Every time Wu or Teachout wins a county, I take a shot.
Teachout is almost definitely going to take Cortland County.

Teachout is winning St. Lawrence county 78-21. Is this area is more like Vermont?

Not exactly but, broad strokes, yes, the North Country is culturally and politically much as one might expect considering its proximity to Vermont and Canada.

Nathan is correct. Similar settlement history IIRC, and simulate economic circumstances to the least well-off parts of VT. St. Lawrence is also notable for hosting four four-year colleges, two private and two SUNY.
1732  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 08:31:56 pm
Ha, looks like I was wrong about rural Upstate. If those Schoharie numbers are right, Teachout won the county by a huge margin. I'd say more but some slack-jawed utility worker knocked out my internet connection .
1733  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 02:42:49 pm
I cast ballot #107 in my precinct after lunch. That's higher than the number of votes cast in the same district in last year's contested mayoral primary, FWIW.

e: If Twitter is any indication, turnout remains low across most of the state. I'm seeing a lot of tweets like this one:

1734  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 09:49:42 am
Um... you don't see serious ethical issues with the Cuomo administration's conduct? Granted he's no Rangel, but using a purportedly independent anti-corruption commission as a personal tool for bullying legislators into submission strikes me as pretty dubious.
1735  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 09:42:51 am
NYT decides not to endorse.

Is your paper delivered by donkey cart, or are you just a slow reader?
1736  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Are deliberately unemployed people a drain on society? on: September 08, 2014, 09:37:27 pm
We are all "drains" on society in that sense - except for literal hermits. And that doesn't include Thoreau in his Walden period, who was strolling into town for lunch with his mother most days.

Who is a net drain is a less easily answered question (and obviously what we're all getting at, but the distinction is easily forgotten). Employment is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for establishing who qualifies. Even many working people would fail a rigorous analysis of their social costs and benefits. Merely holding a job and earning an income adequate to meet one's needs should not be a source of comfort to anyone for whom not being a "taker" is a matter of moral importance
1737  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Most (Politically) Diametrically Opposed Users from Same State on: September 08, 2014, 08:14:55 pm
jaichind vs. D-NYs
1738  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: adults that wont drink water? on: September 08, 2014, 08:07:11 pm
Should pay higher premiums for health insurance.

e: (Of course) I realize as I'm typing this that I drink unsweetened tea all day - probably enough that I'd be fine without drinking much else. But to rule out water entirely? Bizarre and unhealthy. What would you drink at night after brushing your teeth? Herbal teas?
1739  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 08, 2014, 09:25:19 am
Teachout has done most of her campaigning in the city and has been mostly ignored by Upstate media (although a small newspaper in the Adirondacks endorsed her last week).

That's not completely true. She's been upstate quite a bit lately and has been getting a decent amount of coverage in my stomping grounds at least (Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, Woodstock - she was actually just interviewed on Radio Woodstock this morning, etc.).

My roots are showing because my first instinct was to laugh at calling any of those places 'Upstate.' But you raise a fair point about the Hudson Valley and the Catskills. Woodstock and New Paltz are the kind of places that I'd expect to lean toward a candidate like Teachout anyway, but these regions are the heart of anti-fracking sentiment in NY state (which contrasts with the Southern Tier counties west of Binghamton and Ithaca, where popular opinion is far more divided).
1740  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 08, 2014, 09:18:18 am
See the edit that I made to my last comment just after posting it. A shrinking few anti-abortion Catholics aside, Upstate NY is relatively free of politically-motivated religious nuts. Gun control has dominated the headlines, but the people who are most upset with Cuomo are concerned about issues like tax rates and local control of government.
1741  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 08, 2014, 09:12:22 am
Cuomo is well-liked by the democrats?

Averroes, the NY democrats are relatively moderate???

In rural and suburban Upstate NY, they tend to be. Many (most?) of our Republicans are, too, although that's beginning to change. Of course we benefit from not having many religion cases involved in politics here.
1742  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Scott Brown sums up the bottom line of the American Right on: September 08, 2014, 09:10:48 am
He's correct in that "jobs created" is a agonizingly stupid metric for evaluating the success of a policy or government program.

On the other hand, I would be shocked if he isn't on the record bragging about either his or some other Republican's record on "job creation."
1743  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 08, 2014, 09:06:34 am
On the other hand, I did find these charmingly kitschy anti-Hillary banners on one Upstate politics blog:



1744  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 08, 2014, 09:01:07 am
Teachout has done most of her campaigning in the city and has been mostly ignored by Upstate media (although a small newspaper in the Adirondacks endorsed her last week).

Also remember that while there is plenty of anti-Cuomo resentment in Upstate NY, not much of it is coming from Democrats.
1745  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Final Predictions for the NY Gov./Lt. Gov. Primaries (9/9/14) on: September 08, 2014, 08:47:19 am
GOVERNOR

69% - Cuomo
28% - Teachout
   2% - Credico

Teachout does best in the city. Other than a few college towns and maybe places like Lake Placid, Cuomo dominates Upstate and LI. Teachout wins no counties.

LT. GOVERNOR

60% - Hochul
40% - Wu

Similar pattern as Gov, but Hochul underperforms Cuomo everywhere south of Albany. She might be do better than Cuomo in Western NY, but the margin for improvement will be low because Teachout will probably do poorly there.
1746  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Are deliberately unemployed people a drain on society? on: September 07, 2014, 11:23:32 am
Definitions are important here. Who counts as 'deliberately unemployed'? Stay-at-home parents? The disabled? The old? Students?
1747  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 07, 2014, 08:05:49 am
How Cuomo's father managed to lose 20 years ago???

George Pataki promised that he'd start executing people again, and Cuomo was running for a fourth term.
1748  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 07, 2014, 08:02:47 am
How many of the registered NY Democrats live in NYC?

Who knows, maybe I can get a few people to vote for her.

You support a Teachout win in order to let Astorino have a chance to pull an upset? Tongue

Along those lines, but the last time I hoped for something like that to happen I ended up with Mayor Bill de Blasio...

who's now shilling for your party to hold the Senate. So it's not awful for you.

No, Cuomo isn't so bad. But I mean they elected Pataki, so why not...?

That reminds me of the bizarre quote that brought Cuomo's 2002 gubernatorial bid to an unceremonious end:

Quote
Pataki stood behind the leader. He held the leader's coat. He was a great assistant to the leader. But he was not a leader. Cream rises to the top, and Rudy Giuliani rose to the top.
1749  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 07, 2014, 02:40:10 am
Hillary Clinton is robocalling for Cuomo/Hochul

I guess she wants to stop New York from electing a female governor over a corrupt male incumbent. It'll be good to remember to bring this up when she or her supporters mention something about the "glass ceiling".

I agree with Bacon King. 'Corrupt' is the operative word, not 'female.' It's downright scary that virtually every current and former elected Democrat in the state, up to and including Clinton, is willing to play along with it.
1750  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: АverroŽs vs. PPT TNF on: September 06, 2014, 08:49:34 pm
Thank you. Does the President of the Senate have any listed Constitutional powers other than breaking ties, and presiding over impeachment hearings? Those are the only two items that I can find so far. The issue is to fathom here is just what it is that an acting President of the Senate does as a Constitutional function, if that person cannot break ties.

No; those would be his or her only Constitutional functions.
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