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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Could Charles Rangel really be defeated in November? on: August 26, 2010, 02:37:25 pm
Assuming he wins the primary in NY-15, could the Republicans defeat Rangel on an anti-corruption platform? After all Bill Jefferson was defeated in LA-02 back in 2008 which was an otherwise good year for the Democrats.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: International endosements thread on: August 26, 2010, 02:31:20 pm
United States (Senate, Congress & Gubernatorial):-
All of the candidates standing on a Tea Party platform.



3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom alternative vote referendum, 2011: How would you vote? on: August 24, 2010, 12:37:58 pm
After the farce over the closeness of the Australian General Election results, do Australians have the appertite to go back to wholesale FPTP? New Zealand are having a referendum on the return of FPTP next year.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election on: August 20, 2010, 06:47:34 am
If there is a hung parliament or a small majority for either party, could we see another election within the next year?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scotland 2011 Parliamentary Elections on: August 15, 2010, 12:53:09 pm
I wonder if anybody has done any 'notionals' based on the Westminster general election results back in May.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2011 Northern Ireland Elections on: August 13, 2010, 09:05:13 am
Does anybody know if any of the parties have started to announce candidates yet?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Welsh Assembly Elections 2011 on: August 11, 2010, 12:50:44 pm
Doesn't really matter if she does run, Labour should gain this with a majority of several thousand.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Cameron v Obama on: August 09, 2010, 02:55:08 pm
Suppose David Cameron is American and runs as a Republican in 2012. How well would he do against President Obama.  Here is my prediction:-



Cameron (R) = 323
Obama (D) = 215
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom alternative vote referendum, 2011: How would you vote? on: August 08, 2010, 06:38:47 am
No! FPTP may not be perfect, but at least it is the most simple system out there and always produces clear and quick results. What would make the electoral system fairer is to equalise all constituencies so the electorates are fairer and also to introduce compulsory open primaries for ALL members of parliament from all parties.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scotland 2011 Parliamentary Elections on: July 31, 2010, 02:56:54 pm
Here are my Predictions:-

Lab (GAIN) from LibDem
Dunfermiline
Edinburgh Central
Edinburgh Southern

Lab (GAIN) from SNP
Aberdeen Donside
Almond Valley
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane
Cunninghame North
Dundee West
Edinburgh Eastern
Falkirk West
Glasgow Southside
Mid Fife & Glenrothes
Stirling

Too Close to Call
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine
Argyll & Bute
Banffshire & Buchan Coast
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross
Dundee East
Eastwood
Edinburgh West
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire
Glasgow Shettleston
Inverness & Nairn
Midlothian South, Tweedale & Lauderdale
Na-H-Eileen An-Iar

Lab = 47
SNP = 6
Con = 3
LD = 5
Too Close To Call = 12
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2010 State Elections in Germany on: July 29, 2010, 03:10:12 pm
Are the FDP in the same predicament as the LibDems in the UK with a left-right division within the party. Are the FDP grassroots disaffected by the coalition with the CDU and is there any evidence of their supporters defecting to the SPD or to the left?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / 2011 Northern Ireland Elections on: July 16, 2010, 05:33:24 am
The STV elections in NI should be interesting this time. Would DUP First Minister Peter Robinson stand again and if so would he lose his seat? Would the decline of the UUP/Con - UCUNF continue and would SF overtake the DUP as the party with the largest number of seats for the opportunity for the post of First Minister? Discuss
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Welsh Assembly Elections 2011 on: July 16, 2010, 05:26:37 am
Here are my constituency predictions

Mid & West Wales
Brecon & Radnorshire (LibDem HOLD)
Carmarthen East (Plaid HOLD)
Carmarthen West (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Ceridigion (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Dywfor Merionydd (Plaid HOLD)
Llanelli (Lab GAIN from Plaid)
Montgomeryshire (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Preseli Pembrokeshire (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)

North Wales
Aberconwy (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Alyn & Deeside (Lab HOLD)
Arfon (Plaid HOLD)
Clywd South (Lab HOLD)
Clwyd West (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Delyn (Lab HOLD)
Vale of Clywd (Lab HOLD)
Wrexham (Lab HOLD)
Ynys Mon (Plaid HOLD)

South Central Wales
Cardiff Central (Lab GAIN from LibDem)
Cardiff North (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Cardiff South & Penarth (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff West (Lab HOLD)
Cynon Valley (Lab HOLD)
Pontypridd (Lab HOLD)
Rhondaa (Lab HOLD)
Vale of Glamorgan (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)

South East Wales
Blaenau Gwent (Lab GAIN from Ind)
Caerphlly (Lab HOLD)
Islwyn (Lab HOLD)
Merthyr Tydfill (Lab HOLD)
Monmouth (Con HOLD)
Neath (Lab HOLD)
Newport East (Lab HOLD)
Newport West (Lab HOLD)
Torfean (Lab HOLD)

South West Wales
Aberavon (Lab HOLD)
Bridgend (Lab HOLD)
Gower (Lab HOLD)
Ogmore (Lab HOLD)
Swansea East (Lab HOLD)
Swansea West (Lab HOLD)

Total Breakdown of Seats
Lab = 26
Plaid = 4
LD = 1
Con = 1
Too Close To Call = 8








14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: What was the most memorable by-election in UK history.... on: July 15, 2010, 12:19:52 pm
The byelections in Crewe/Nantwich & in Norwich North were significant as it was proved the beginning of the end for the Labour Government and showed that the Tories were now electable again.
15  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: Germany split following WWII on: July 11, 2010, 07:47:50 am
1945-1990

Capitalist States (8 states)
Schleswig Holstein
Lower Saxony
Rhineland-Westphalia Palatinate (North Rhine-Westphalia) & (Rhineland-Palatinate)
Saarland
Hessen
Baden Wuttenberg
Bavaria
West Berlin (City-State)

Communist States (5 states)
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Brandenburg
Saxony-Anhalt (Sachen Anhalt) & (Saxony)
Thuringen
East Berlin (City-State)

Sorry, but don't know how to input maps. The communist states all consist of the borders of DDR. Berlin remains the same with division. All members of western states join EEC (EU) whilst all members of eastern states join Warsaw Bloc. In 1989, all eastern states revolt against communism and become democratic states within the EEC. Berlin merges into one state as well as other East-West states merging.

1990-present (9 States)

Saxony (Lower Saxony & Saxony Anhalt)
Berlin (East Berlin & West Berlin)
Hesse-Thurnigen (Hesse & Thurnigen)
Bavaria
Brandenburg
Nord-Land (Schleswig-Holsten) & (Mecklenburg-Vorpummen)
Rhineland-Westphalia
Saarland
Baden-Wuttenburg



16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Suprises of the 2010 UK General Election on: July 03, 2010, 12:13:24 pm
IMHO the biggest surprises of the night were the LibDems gaining Redcar and Labour holding on in seats such as Birmingham Edgbaston. The Tories losing Eastbourne, Wells and Solihull (again) were careless especially when they failed to lose them in 1997. The LibDems losing seats would've been a bigger shock if it wasn't for the Exit Polls which suggested that this would be the case.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Will the Tories ever make a comeback in Scotland? on: July 03, 2010, 12:08:24 pm
Considering that they didn't make any progress at all, compared to the rest of the UK at the general election, I'd doubt that they would gain any more seats in Scotland for the foreseeable future. If they are unpopular by the time of the next election, then they would lose their remaining seat in DCT. As for next years Scottish Parliament Election the same applies with them IMHO losing Eastwood (notional) to Labour, Berwickshire to LibDems and possibly Ayr to Labour. They should hold on to Edinburgh Pentlands and Dunfriesshire & Upper Nithsdale, but I won't be at all surprised if they lost those either so they could end up having zero constituency seats and very few list seats.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: London Mayoral Election 2012 on: June 29, 2010, 01:46:50 pm
If by some miracle King does win the nomination, then Livingstone would stand as an Independent again as in 2000. This time though Mayor Johnson would be re-elected easily with King and Livingstone fighting it out for 2nd place. Although the governing party traditionally does poorly in local elections, the Tories would be saved due to the rupture in the Labour party due to Livingstone going rogue. As for the LibDem selection, there's no way Opik will be selected. IMHO the LibDems would select somebody local such as Simon Hughes MP or Lynne Featherstone MP.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: London Mayoral Election 2012 on: June 22, 2010, 08:28:30 am
Full list of declared Labour Party candidates
Seton During (Party Activist, Former Enfield councillor & Chartered Engineer).
Oona King
Ken Livingstone
Emmanuel Okoro (Party Activist & Artist).

Basically its a two horse race between King and Livingstone. More info:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/10343953.stm
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who would you vote in Polish presidential election runoff? on: June 21, 2010, 07:53:26 am
Am I correct in assuming that the closest equvelant to Britain is the Conservatives (Civic Platform) v UKIP (Law & Justice) ? BTW I 'voted' for Jaroslaw.
21  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Sarah Palin's home state? on: June 05, 2010, 07:14:45 am
Since resigning as Governor last year, is Sarah Palin still registered in Alaska or providing if she goes for the Presidency would she gain residency in another state?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: English local elections on: May 31, 2010, 02:04:24 pm
Bowling & Barkerend is actually the 2nd most deprived ward in Bradford (behind the Labour stronghold of Little Horton) and until a few years ago was itself a safe Labour ward for years. The 2010 elections did see a reduction in the Tory vote though and seems to be treading back to Labour.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland 2010 on: May 19, 2010, 10:30:58 am
For anybody who is interested I have worked out the STV notional results based on the General Election Results. This is in spreadsheet form, so if anybody would like a copy please e-mail me at:- jmbraysonAThotmailDOTcoDOTuk
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scotland 2011 Parliamentary Elections on: May 19, 2010, 10:27:06 am
This sounds obvious but the reason why Labour held their seats in the General Election was because Brown was Scottish and Labour benefited from a mini 'Brown Bounce'. Now Brown has resigned and is most likely to be replaced by an English leader, Labour could well lose seats due to the lack of Scottish leadership and the perception that the Labour Party is 'ran by London'.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Silent Hunter's Super Sixty: 2010 UK Election Prediction Contest on: May 19, 2010, 10:22:18 am
Thanks!
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