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2201  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Pick the Better Candidate on: February 13, 2010, 11:16:19 pm
Bush

George W. Bush vs. Sarah Palin
2202  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 22nd Amendment: 3 Terms on: February 13, 2010, 02:07:33 pm
Just for the lolz, how about George W. Bush vs. Barack Obama in 2008?

I imagine it might be something like this, but I'm probably being too kind to Dubya.



Obama: 404 EV
Bush: 134 EV
2203  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: What if Gingirch ran in '96 on: February 13, 2010, 12:18:46 am
What if the Federal Government shutdown never happened? Or at least, what if Gingrich didn't say "it happened because he made me sit at the back of the plane"?
2204  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Second Term of Gerald Ford on: February 12, 2010, 11:02:11 am
Great timeline! Smiley
2205  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: No Watergate, No Jimmy Carter Presidency on: February 12, 2010, 10:53:43 am
Thi s is hackish, porrly written and poorly conducted timeline.

I could do it better.

Wrong.

With Kennedy as a nominee, after Chappaquidick scandal, and far-left Brown, Connally would wil epic victory.



Oh, so that map isn't hackish and poorly conducted at all...And it's also spelled completely correctly! Wink
2206  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: What a tackle by Rosey Grier: An Alternate History on: February 12, 2010, 10:23:59 am
I'm rooting for Reagan, but I don't think it's going to be nearly as big of a landslide as a 489-49 one as in OTL, since the public is dissatisfied with the GOP AND Reagan already lost to RFK in 1972 ITTL (he didn't lose in a landslide ITTL, but still). But George McGovern's ultraliberalism may turn the tides and Reagan might be able to squeak out a win. I wonder how the debates are going to play out, since the OTL polls were actually quite close before the debate in 1980, the polls showed a Reagan landslide right after the debate.

ALso,

November 5: In a narrow-result, Senator Kennedy defeats Mr. Nixon and Gov. Wallace. He is now the next President of the United States of America

Kennedy/Yarborough (D) 320 EV, 46% of the PV
Nixon/Agnew (R) 173 EV, 40% of the PV
Wallace/LeMay (I) 45 EV, 14% of the PV


1972

Kennedy/Yarborough (D) 54% of the PV, 320 EVs
Reagan/Percy (R) 46% of the PV, 218 EVs



While I agree that RFK would probably win in both these scenarios, is it likely that he'd receive exactly 320 electoral votes two times in a row?
2207  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 1972 and on timeline on: February 12, 2010, 10:03:23 am
And here is the conclusion to the 2004 elections:

Here is the final map for the 2004 presidential election:

Bush/Ridge: 513; 79, 384, 410 64.91%
Lincoln/Dean:  25; 36, 348, 138 29.72%
Nader/Camejo:0;  5, 410, 739 4.42%
 Badnarik/Campagna: 0; 690, 538 00.56%
Other: 0; 459, 714 00.38%
270 to win
BUSH WINS!!!!
This landslide really was not all Bush. Nader helped Bush a lot, especially in the popular vote. Nader took almost four and a half percent of the vote which is a strong showing for a third party candidate. And, according to exit polls, about 90% of Nader voters would have voted for Lincoln. So, that helped Bush get the highest number of popular vote and the highest percentage of the nation wide vote in history.


The congressional elections blow everyone out of the water.
In the senate, republicans pick up twenty seats.

This leaves the senate tied and vice president Tom Ridge casts the tie breaking vote. Therefore, the republicans have control of the senate.
People were keeping their fingers crossed for the house, on both sides. On the democratic sides, they were praying that they would atleast keep the house. The republicans were keeping theirs crossed that they would win it.
Well, the republicans picked up 104 house seats. But, it is not enough. The democrats keep the house. Though, the republican gains are huge in both houses of congress and the future looks bright for republicans in the congress.


This leave the new congress looking like the following...

Senate:
D=50
R=50
(vice president tom ridge casts the tie breaking vote which puts the senate in republican control.)

House:
D=223
R=212


The Bush second term is coming up later.


Why would Nader help Bush in the popular vote? I understand why his presence might cause Lincoln to lose several states, therefore increasing Bush's amount of electoral votes, but Nader's campaign isn't going to make people vote for Bush. The only real effect Nader would have on the popular vote is that the popular vote margin between Bush and Lincoln would grow wider. Bush is not going to gain "highest number of popular vote and the highest percentage of the nation wide vote in history" because of Nader's campaign. Also, I think it's unlikely that ANY candidate would get as a high of a percentage as 64.91% of the vote.
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