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January 30, 2015, 07:28:16 am
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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Lief Reservoir of Simple Truths and Smart One-Liners on: Today at 06:50:07 am
He started running for president the second he became governor and it shows. He was more interested in checking off the national conservative bucket list than in running his state well. The hot mess that is their voucher program is proof of that.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: Today at 04:12:23 am
NC-Sen: One of the reasons Burr was on retirement watch for the past few years was because of his relatively low fundraising; looks like he's quickly moving to fix that:

Quote
Sen. Richard Burr kicked off fundraising for his 2016 re-election campaign with an event in Washington Wednesday night that brought in more than $1 million.

That's a record for a Burr fundraising event, said Paul Shumaker, the campaign general counsel. He said the final figure, after pledges are counted, would exceed $1 million.

There was speculation in Washington that Burr might not be running because he only had $720,000 cash on hand in the latest campaign finance filing. But Burr recently announced a team of veteran political operatives as his 2016 campaign staff.
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 2024 US Presidential election on: Today at 04:03:00 am
Huntsman/Booker for this poll, but in real life, I'd probably stick with Heinrich.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Illinois Executive Mega-Thread on: Today at 03:45:15 am
Wards of Chicago:

5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Rob McCord resigning on: January 29, 2015, 04:29:23 pm
I wonder if this had anything to do with it:

Quote
Action News confirms that Pennsylvania State Treasurer Rob McCord, who announced Thursday he is stepping down from the job, is currently under federal investigation.

Sources tell Action News that the wide-spread probe is examining the alleged theft of campaign and other funds.

McCord has been in office for six years.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 2002 Georgia Senatorial on: January 29, 2015, 04:24:06 pm
Cleland (respects veterans).
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: January 29, 2015, 03:56:33 pm
LA-01: David Duke is threatening to run against Scalise (*grabbing my popcorn*):

Quote
Former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke says that he might run against House Majority Whip Steve Scalise and that Scalise is a "sellout."

The Louisiana Republican has been caught up in a controversy over revelations that in 2002 he addressed a white supremacist group founded by Duke.

"I might just have to run against Steve Scalise," Duke said Wednesday in an interview with "The Jim Engster Show" first reported by BuzzFeed. "I really might. I'm definitely going to consider it."

I was expecting Duke to mention their differences on foreign policy as the main sticking point, but this is why Duke is most frustrated:

Quote
"He should resign because the difference between Steve Scalise and I is that he campaigned on the same issues that I introduced to the Republican Party, but he sold out," Duke said.

He's also made similar criticizisms of Vitter in the past; that he's co-opted Duke's discourse/ideas for his own personal ends.  
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jindal for Senate? on: January 29, 2015, 02:50:57 pm
^ I'd actually say Scalise is still more electable. Except for partisan Democrats, few people in LA that I've talked with really buy into that story about him and Duke; there's a sentiment that he's being unfairly singled out.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What Congressional District Can You See the Above Poster Representing on: January 29, 2015, 01:41:04 pm
MA-08
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OK 2018: Boren open to running on: January 29, 2015, 01:19:51 pm
^ It was something like R+13, IIRC. In terms of strictly PVI, CD5 was more D-friendly, but CD2 was (is) obviously far more Democratic by identification/tradition.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 Senate results by CD on: January 29, 2015, 12:45:08 pm
The good news is that the complete set of all results, by precinct, for every county and city with a separate board of elections, was posted at the State Board of Elections on Dec 1. Every jurisdiction is in CSV format so it ports easily into Excel or any other spreadsheet or database. The difficulty is that there are 112 separate files and no cross correlations. Individual ballot lines are each treated separately in the files.

To answer a question like how did Durbin do by CD or Rauner by Legislative District requires finding all the precincts in the smaller district then finding the same precincts for the other race of interest. Its quite time consuming in a simple spreadsheet like Excel. It's a more reasonable task with a relational database like Access.

In any case, the SBE isn't going to create the correlations. The number of possible correlations between offices is enormous. Who is to say that US Senate by CD is the most important one to do? Since DKE did this for the 2012 data, I won't be surprised if they do the same for 2014. Of course they get to choose the correlations in that case.

Thanks, muon. I'm doing IL next and these links have been pretty helpful. They've been easier than going to each county/municpal site for results.

The most time-consuming part was Chicago, where there were about 130 split voting districts that I had to assign. I don't have time (nor really the patience, even by my standards) to split them individually, so I gave them to whichever CD they cast the most votes in; 'rounding to the nearest precinct' is how I usually deal with those situations. Thankfully, the split precincts were pretty lopsidedly split towards one CD, so it was obvious where to assign them. Yes, it leaves some margin for error, but most were heavily Dem anyway and we're talking about 130 out of 2,000+ precincts.

I'm working with some of the data-crunchers from DKE. I'll probably be the only one doing an exhaustive set of Senate/Gov races by CD, at least for the next few months. DKE seems more focused on breaking results down by LD.  
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / OK 2018: Boren open to running on: January 29, 2015, 12:00:21 pm
Article.

Quote
When Dan Boren was asked whether he might some day run for Oklahoma governor like his father, he said Tuesday, “I wouldn’t rule it out.”

Boren, a former U.S. representative from Oklahoma, addressed older students attending a University of Oklahoma session about what it was like being part of three generations of Borens who had each served as Democrat politicians.


The speaker’s comment about a governor's race drew instant applause from about 130 people attending the event when he opined about the future.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: January 29, 2015, 11:38:39 am
Obama at 60/38 in CA with adults, 52/45 with RVs, 50/48 with LVs. Sort of dumb to be screening LVs in an off-year, but there it is.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: R.I.P. Never Convinced? on: January 29, 2015, 11:31:16 am
He's on Twitter and posted here last month, so I'm not convinced we've seen the last of him.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / KY Prim-R: Remington: Wide open Republican field on: January 29, 2015, 11:15:42 am
Until we get a sub-board for these 2015 polls...

Comer- 22%
Bevin- 19%
Heiner- 18%
Scott- 5%
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL: Grayson, DWS (among others) looking at Rubio's seat on: January 29, 2015, 11:03:57 am
How bout that:

Quote
Emily Cahn ‏@CahnEmily

.@PatrickMurphyFL raised $533K (!) in the 4th quarter of 2014. Hardest quarter of the cycle to raise cash. #FLSEN
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / PA: Rob McCord resigning on: January 29, 2015, 10:57:28 am
Article.

Quote
State Treasurer Rob McCord has submitted his resignation to Governor Tom Wolf.

McCord is set to step down on February 12th. Chief Counsel Christopher Craig will be taking over.

It does not appear McCord is seeking another office, he denied any interest in a 2016 Senate race last November.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jindal for Senate? on: January 29, 2015, 07:10:50 am
^ He waited until after he was reelected to roll out most of his more controversial fiscal/structural reforms.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which State can you see the Previous Poster being a Senator/Governor of? on: January 29, 2015, 07:07:12 am
PA.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Miles' Election Map Thread on: January 29, 2015, 05:32:38 am
Many thanks to Cinyc, who helped me understand the program(s) that I used to generate this; it would have taken me at least a few more weeks to get to this otherwise.

21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you rather have as governor? on: January 29, 2015, 04:08:51 am
Wallace.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: January 28, 2015, 03:54:43 pm
FWIW, I got an email from Mark Harris knocking Ellmers. He's from the wrong part of the state to run against her himself, but she's definitely looking pretty vulnerable, ATM.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Alternate 1994 TX Senate election on: January 28, 2015, 02:40:03 pm
I assumed this was who would you vote for, so I put Benston Tongue Hutchison would win.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: January 28, 2015, 02:37:29 pm
Burr is gettin the ball rolling on reelection with campaign staff and events.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jindal for Senate? on: January 28, 2015, 01:36:59 pm
^ To say the least, they don't like eachother very much.
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