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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Eric Holder: Edward Snowden "performed a 'public service'" on: May 30, 2016, 10:13:20 pm
FF.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2016 PAPOY Creepfest on: May 30, 2016, 10:07:28 pm
Thanks! That was at my most severe point - I lost about 50 lbs between those pictures. I've gained maybe 5-8 lbs back since then but still working on it!
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: May 2016 House of Representatives Elections on: May 29, 2016, 07:46:02 pm
1. Goldwater
2. Haslam2020
3. Classic Conservative
4. ClarkKent
5, JCL
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: May 29, 2016, 03:05:13 am
LA-02: Despite being at a serious geographic disadvantage, ex-Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D) is challenging Rep. Richmond.

I wish the Democrats had talked him into CD6 instead. It's tough, but in his LG runoff last year, he got 47% there, far ahead of Obama's 33%. Would have been good wave insurance.

I don't get this.  By all accounts, Richmond is above board and doing right by his constituents.  What does Holden think his angle is here?

I don't get it, either.

He wasn't a great fundraiser when he ran statewide, and underperformed in the New Orleans area even then (e.g., losing Jefferson Parish 65/35 while JBE carried it).

Richmond is popular with the rank and file members of the state party, as well, so I don't think that makes Holden's fundraising any easier.

And the LA Democratic party endorsed Richmond yesterday.

It looks like they only have candidates for CDs 2 and 6 (though the filing deadline is still two months away).
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy Birthday, Miles! on: May 29, 2016, 02:29:31 am
Thanks - I appreciate it! And thanks in advance to everyone else Smiley
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2016 PAPOY Creepfest on: May 29, 2016, 02:15:24 am
^ The picture on the left was about the time I graduated high school (6 years ago); the one on the right is more recent:

7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which politician do you look the most similar to? on: May 28, 2016, 09:03:42 pm
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: May 28, 2016, 11:59:20 am
^ Looks like all he had as of the last report (at the end of March) was a $250K self-loan. I guess JBE's endorsement will help with that. JBE didn't have issues raising money in his race, and I don't see why that wouldn't be the case in a runoff this time. 
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: May 28, 2016, 09:48:37 am
I am a bit worried about this LA race. It is guaranteed to go to a runoff, right?

If this is serious, why?  Are you worried about a D vs. D or D vs. Lefty I runoff due to vote splitting? Or are you worried about Campbell tapping into disaffected Trumpy turnout and beating an R outright like JBE did last year?

Yeah, I'm worried about Campbell winning the runoff, especially if control of the Senate is already settled. Democrats can still win a Senate race in LA against a weak Republican. I'm generally worried about open seats - they can cause much trouble. 
Absolutely. If Landrieu faced a weak candidate in 2014 she would have been reelected. Open Senate seats should never be taken for granted. (See Rick Berg 2012 as a classic example.) It would also be interesting (and scary) if the runoff ended up deciding Senate control.

What would be really interesting is if Trump is President-Elect and the senate is 50D/49R pending LA (IL, WI, NH and FL flipped).  It's likely Trump would secretly prefer a D-controlled senate with red state populists like Manchin and Campbell holding all the cards vs. an R-controlled senate for his budget negotiations with Ryan.

To make it even more interesting, suppose Trumpists also propelled Barksdale into a runoff in GA even as Trump comfortably won the state.

Yeah, if you gave me the general script of Campbell's announcement ad and didn't tell me who it was for, I might have guessed Trump. He mentions revesring our trade deals and beefing up border security, among other things.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New poll shows Asian-Americans are more supportive of Democratic Party than ever on: May 27, 2016, 10:57:55 pm
Honestly not important. Asians are demographically moribund and not likely to become electorally relevant anytime soon.

Hispanic preferences might worry the GOP, but there's a lot of factors that are going to play into that (like assimilation) - and it's not clear that Trump will do worse than Romney.

Er, actually no:

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: May 26, 2016, 07:27:40 pm
^ Yeah, listening to Campbell on the stump (e.g., he goes first in this forum) he's definitely the most populist-sounding, which would help. He's also popular in his PSC district, which is a lot of northern LA.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: May 26, 2016, 07:19:34 pm
LA-02: Despite being at a serious geographic disadvantage, ex-Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D) is challenging Rep. Richmond.

I wish the Democrats had talked him into CD6 instead. It's tough, but in his LG runoff last year, he got 47% there, far ahead of Obama's 33%. Would have been good wave insurance.

I don't get this.  By all accounts, Richmond is above board and doing right by his constituents.  What does Holden think his angle is here?

I don't get it, either.

He wasn't a great fundraiser when he ran statewide, and underperformed in the New Orleans area even then (e.g., losing Jefferson Parish 65/35 while JBE carried it).

Richmond is popular with the rank and file members of the state party, as well, so I don't think that makes Holden's fundraising any easier.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: May 26, 2016, 07:13:33 pm
^ Yep.

Just on the R side, you have Fleming competing with Maness, and Boustany with Kennedy. Combine that with the three Democrats (and Indie Dem Troy Hebert), and no way anyone clears 50%.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: May 26, 2016, 07:07:33 pm
LA-Sen: JBE is supporting Campbell.

From my inbox, JBE is now actively raising money for Campbell. That link from April was just about what he told the DSCC, but looks he's being more overt now.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is worse? on: May 26, 2016, 07:03:13 pm
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Civitas: McCrory +5 /+7 with leaners on: May 26, 2016, 06:58:58 pm
PPP picked up a slight uptick for McCrory, but nothing has happened as far as the dynamics of this race that would suggest this big a swing.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2016 PAPOY Creepfest on: May 26, 2016, 06:53:30 pm
Cokie Roberts and I; she happens to be a fellow New Orleans -> DC area transplant. Its was actually from the end of last year, but oh well.

18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who do you side with in the Trump/Warren spat? on: May 26, 2016, 06:46:59 pm
I like them both, but Warren more, so I guess her.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: John Chiang is running for Governor of California on: May 26, 2016, 06:45:17 pm
Faulconer not running in 2018, assuming he's reelected mayor.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House Republicans switch votes at last minute to kill anti-discrimination amend. on: May 26, 2016, 06:42:26 pm
Well, I guess the Republicans who switched their votes didn't want to engage in such sinful behavior:

Quote
A House conservative went after dozens of fellow Republicans on Thursday with suggestions that they'd sinned for backing an anti-discrimination proposal against gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people.

Rep. Rick Allen, a Georgia freshman, launched the GOP's regular policy meeting in the Capitol basement by reading a Bible passage condemning homosexuality and suggesting that supporters of the LGBT provision, which passed the House the night before, were defying Christian tenets, attendees said.
 
Several Republicans walked out of the room in disgust.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH-Gov: DeWine In on: May 26, 2016, 06:39:23 pm
I heard DeWine was rumored to be considering a revenge bid against Brown, but I guess not.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / CA: PPIC: Harris, Sanchez going to runoff on: May 25, 2016, 11:13:37 pm
Article.

Harris (D) - 27%
Sanchez (D) - 19%
Del Beccaro (R) - 8%
Unz (R) - 6%
Sundheim (R) - 3%
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / CA: PPIC: Clinton +2 on: May 25, 2016, 11:11:12 pm
Article.

Clinton - 46%
Sanders - 44%
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who do you approve of more, PR or DT? on: May 24, 2016, 10:55:12 pm
Trump easily.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: May 2016 Regional Committee Elections on: May 24, 2016, 10:33:26 pm
1) tmth
2) NCYankee
3) Adam Griffin
4) Southern Gothic
5) Leinad
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 683


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