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June 27, 2017, 02:16:51 am
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1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June 2017 Federal Election on: June 24, 2017, 01:10:51 am
President/VP:
[1] dfwlibertylover/Goldwater

1. Fhtagn
2. Leinad
3. Pessimistic Antineutrino
4. CMB222
5. North Carolina Yankee
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: LA: 1971 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Result on: June 24, 2017, 01:06:27 am
^ The parties themselves never liked the jungle primary system.

People who had been used to the jungle primary there whole lives complained that the traditional system was confusing. Democratic primaries were open to independents, but the Republicans' weren't, though they kept talking about opening their's.

Jindal brought it back in 2011, against the input of officials from both parties, because he was heading into an election, and wanted to look independent.

Ironically though Edwards created it, it helped the Republicans long-term; voters could support Republican candidates without actually having to register with the party. Though, OTOH, it probably gave them David Duke in 1991 - considering he had appeal with a lot of blue collar Democrats, at least in the jungle primary, who otherwise wouldn't have been able to vote in a Republican primary.
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best and Worst Governors of the Past 25 Years: Louisiana on: June 22, 2017, 01:29:55 am
Ugh, missed this.

JBE for best.

I don't get all the hate for EWE. He was very popular in his first two terms a did a lot then. He also made a point of promoting blacks in state government. Yes, he had his flaws, but on the whole, I think he gets a bum rap.

Worst is easily Jindal.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: LA: 1971 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Result on: June 22, 2017, 01:23:50 am
^ Thought about doing just "S. Long" for the abbreviated name, but didn't think that was much better!
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: LA: 1971 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Result on: June 22, 2017, 12:49:37 am
1979 D runoff for Lt. Gov.



My totals are a few hundred higher than the official count, ATM, as the scanned PDF I'm copying from is hard to make out in some areas.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: LA: 1971 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Result on: June 21, 2017, 06:13:58 pm
^ When you hover over the parishes, it should now distinguish "G. W. Long" and "S. O. Long".
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best and Worst Governors of the Past 25 Years: Kentucky on: June 20, 2017, 12:23:11 am
Easily Beshear/Bevin.
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Politicians From Other Party You Admire on: June 20, 2017, 12:04:41 am
Sticking to federal/statewide names:

Walter Jones
Frank Wolf
John Warner
Tom Davis
Ron Paul
Charles Boustany
Ralph Abraham
Steve Scalise
Jay Dardenne
Chris Smith
Susan Collins

9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: LA: 1971 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Result on: June 19, 2017, 02:08:46 am
^ Seems like it would have, ironically, been a good year for Chep Morrison, if he'd lived. He'd have decent ideological, and geographic, overlap with Edwards. The past times he ran for Governor, he did well in the River Parishes, which went to Edwards here.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What do you think is the ugliest shaped county in the US? on: June 18, 2017, 04:16:20 pm
Jefferson County AR has that weird little appendage by its southeastern corner.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: LA: 1971 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Result on: June 18, 2017, 04:09:01 pm
This was the first time Edwin Edwards ran statewide - he was the Congressman for LA-07 before this. Johnston got the second runoff slot and almost beat Edwards.

In the general, Edawards won, but Dave Treen took 43% against him, which was the best showing a Republican had gotten up to that point.

After winning the governorship after 3 rounds, Edwards introduced the jungle primary when they re-wrote the state constitution in 1973.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / LA: 1971 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Result on: June 18, 2017, 02:39:22 pm
New Election: 1971 Louisiana Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Results
   
   

13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV SEN 2018 hypothetical: Who wins GOP primary? on: June 18, 2017, 12:45:43 pm
Jenkins comes from the part of the state with the fewest registered Republicans, FWIW.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Cube root congressional districts on: June 18, 2017, 03:42:59 am
VA - I tried to be pretty fair:

15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Cube root congressional districts on: June 18, 2017, 01:36:19 am
^ Make sure you open it in a non-Chrome browser.


If I had a free hand at LA. 10 seats could be split 5-5:



1) 52/46 MCCAIN, 54/46 DEM. Should elect a Democrat; Landrieu likely carried it in 2014.
2) 71/27 OBAMA, 75/25 DEM. Just over 50% BVAP.
3) 76/22 MCCAIN, 70/30 REP
4) 77/21 MCCAIN, 70/30 REP
5) 58/41 OBAMA, 61/39 DEM, Plurality BVAP, 47.6% to 45.8% white.
6) 50/48 OBAMA, 55/45 DEM, Good for a Blue Dog, or a black Dem like Sanford Bishop. 51% white, 45% black VAP. Could shore this up a few points by going into Alexandria.
7) 68/30 MCCAIN, 64/36 REP
8 ) 66/32 MCCAIN, 61/38 REP
9) 73/26 MCCAIN, 69/31 REP
10) 54.6/44.5 MCCAIN, 50.6/49.4 REP, Republicans are favored, but not completely safe.

16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 17, 2017, 01:06:01 am


Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR
REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR
DEMOCRATIC LT GOV
REPUBLICAN LT GOV
PARTY CHOICE

Roanoke City did a fair bit of re-precincting, so the precincts there are all colored by the municipal vote.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th) on: June 14, 2017, 05:51:30 pm
^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th) on: June 14, 2017, 05:48:25 pm
Also, I ran the CD breakdowns:







Excuse the conventional colors on this one:


19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 14, 2017, 05:43:19 pm
Spectacular work as always, Miles!

So the word on Dark Atlas is that Wagner basically ran as a moderate on economic issues.  I wonder how much support that bled from Gillespie.  I didn't follow his campaign at all but I didn't see any signs of his and I don't think he ran a single ad - and this is his home city.

Eyeballing that map, it appears Stewart won my precinct.

Wagner's focus was on investment in economic development rather than Gillespie's very original and thoughtful focus on tax cuts or Stewart's identity politics. Probably "took" net a significant amount from Gillespie, though certainly there were some Trump (primary) /Wagner voters, at least in Hampton Roads. He didn't have the funds for tv ads.  He ran them on talk radio though. 

Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

I need to make some slight changes to those, but I'll post them again (with larger versions) when I  do.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 14, 2017, 03:10:08 am



21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Best and Worst Governors of the Past 25 Years: Georgia on: June 12, 2017, 11:35:07 pm
Miller/Deal.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-2017 Primary predictions on: June 12, 2017, 09:48:47 pm
D Primary

Northam  53.5%
Perriello 46.5%

R Primary

Gillespie 52%
Stewart 33%
Wagner 15%
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report on: June 11, 2017, 02:47:52 am
Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.
Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

Perriello already lives in NOVA now, FWIW. It's transient enough that he could easily overcome carpetbagging.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 10, 2017, 09:10:34 pm
^ Absentee voting isn't a big thing in VA, but here's what the state has:

- Democratic Primary

- Republican Primary

25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June 2017 - Southern Senate Election (Class I) on: June 10, 2017, 02:54:24 pm
1. NeverAgain
2. PiT1
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