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April 16, 2014, 11:05:03 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: Today at 10:14:21 am
NC-Sen: The fundraising numbers for Harris were weaker than I thought. I only raised  $400K; I thought it was $800K (his CoH).

NC-07: White raised $359K but burned $201K.

NC-12:

The main beneficiary is Malcolm Graham, though this may give George Battle an opening.

Yep:
Quote
James Mitchell set to endorse former rival George Battle III in #NC12.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / King: Paul Presidency would be a disaster on: Today at 09:29:02 am
Article.

Quote
Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who has made it clear he's no fan of Sen. Rand Paul's (R-KY) foreign policy views, said Wednesday that a hypothetical Paul presidency would be "disastrous."

Appearing on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," King was asked whether he would be comfortable with Paul as commander-in-chief.

“No I wouldn’t. I think his views would be disastrous," King said. "I think he appeals to the lowest common denominator."
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / KS: Sebelius considering run on: Today at 09:00:12 am
Article.

Quote
Several Democrats said this week that Ms. Sebelius had been mentioned with growing frequency as someone who could wage a serious challenge to Mr. Roberts, 77, who is running for a fourth term and is considered vulnerable. One person who spoke directly to Ms. Sebelius said that she was thinking about it, but added that it was too soon to say how seriously she was taking the idea.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Mitchell Research: Snyder leads by 12 on: April 15, 2014, 09:57:26 pm
Apparently this poll had a bunch of push questions that Mitchell left off the PDF.

And they were all asked before the Senate/Gov matchups.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Political Compass: Question #8 on: April 15, 2014, 09:29:01 pm
Not where I live, as much as I wish it were otherwise.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: April 15, 2014, 07:47:15 pm
Hmm, Graves got a bit more than he estimated earlier. Dietzel was the loser here. He opened the quarter with his high-profile kickoff and made the most media/speech appearances; $97K isn't much to show for that and he also spent more that he took in.

Eh, as diverse as the district is the bulk of it is in one media market. Just from looking at these numbers now, you can't tell how much appropriated for the primary and what for the runoff.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AR Congressional Races 2014 on: April 15, 2014, 06:07:21 pm
Witt raises $269K in CD4.

Only $115K for Moll.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Crist leading by 5 on: April 15, 2014, 05:11:23 pm
AAAAAAAAAAAAAH
(I'm stupid Tongue)

When I first started seeing SUSA, it also took me a while to realize it was SurveyUSA Wink
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Crist leading by 5 on: April 15, 2014, 04:59:50 pm
I'm sorry but I don't know what is SUSA

SurveyUSA

One of the better all-around pollsters.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Crist leading by 5 on: April 15, 2014, 04:55:35 pm
Good poll?

Its SUSA...
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / FL: SUSA: Crist leading by 5 on: April 15, 2014, 04:32:51 pm
Report.

Crist (D)- 46%
Scott (R)- 41%
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AR Congressional Races 2014 on: April 15, 2014, 04:25:45 pm
538 looks at the accuracy of partisan polls since 2002, vis–à–vis this race in particular. The polls average 4 points towards their side.

Also of note:

Quote
We’re most likely to see the greatest bias when a candidate is losing by a lot and a partisan poll is released from that candidate’s side. The average bias when the sponsored side loses is 6.64 points. It averages only 0.98 points when the sponsored side wins. When the sponsored side wins by more than 5 points, the bias is nonexistent.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: April 15, 2014, 04:14:09 pm
GA-12: $290K for Barrow, $1.4M CoH.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: April 15, 2014, 04:00:22 pm
Crist pwns Lopez-Cantera.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HI: Hanabusa going for Senate on: April 15, 2014, 03:57:46 pm
^ Good. Takai didn't vote for the civil unions bill but supported the SSM bill (which I guess was more important anyway).
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MA: UMass: Coakley ahead by 11 on: April 15, 2014, 03:43:09 pm
Article.

Coakley (D)- 45%
Baker (R)- 34%
Undecided -21%

Coakly leads Grossman 39-9 in the primary.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: April 15, 2014, 03:38:18 pm
Buzzfeed goes through some of the other race-baiting/sexist/Islamaphobic posts on McDaniel's blog.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: April 15, 2014, 03:08:48 pm
Strong fundraising for Cochran. $1.7M raised, $1.5M CoH.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which person in the congress has an ideology farthest from yours? on: April 15, 2014, 02:23:26 pm
Amash and Paul.

Senate (Democratic): Mark Pryor
Senate (Republican): Rand Paul

House (Democratic): Mike McIntyre
House (Republican): Justin Amash

How are you closest to Rahall and Peterson but farthest  from McIntyre and Pryor?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AR Congressional Races 2014 on: April 15, 2014, 01:41:27 pm
Why Pryor is no Lincoln.

On the flip side, WaPo has Landrieu displacing Pryor as the most vulnerable incumbent. Tongue
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: April 15, 2014, 12:51:09 pm
NC-Sen: The NRA has endorsed Tillis. The 2nd Amendment groups are split on this race as Gun Owners of America and the Nat'l Association for Gun Rights support Brannon.

More NC-Sen: Harris raised $803K in Q1, which is actually more than Brannon.

NC-07: This is the 'cheat sheet' article for CD7.

LA-06: Edwards raised $33K. Not much, though he only just launched his actual campaign apparatus two weeks ago.


NC-02: Aiken raised $233K; a small haul considering all the hype about his candidacy. Crisco raised a decent $450K while Ellmers took in $322K.

LA-06: This should help with libertarian Republicans:

Quote
With the use of drones rapidly increasing, the Legislature is working on a plan to prohibit them from being used for spying on individuals and private property.

Sen. Dan Claitor, R-Baton Rouge, calls his SB 330 a “work in progress.” He wants to attach criminal fines “for putting a drone in your backyard without your permission.”

NC-03: Tepid fundraising for Jones; only $102K raised in Q1 while spending $71K. A bit worrying considering outside groups are buying $400K+ ad slots against him.

LA-05: McAllister cancels all events during Easter break. I hope this gives him more time to sort things through with his family.

McAllister's fundraising was only $47K.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: April 15, 2014, 12:32:46 pm
Pennington will make a 'major announcement' tomorrow:

Quote
David Pennington, the only Conservative running for Governor of Georgia, will be making a major campaign announcement outside of the Governor’s Office at the State Capitol tomorrow.

This comes on the heels of the recent court ruling regarding Nathan Deal’s near constant ethics scandals over campaign funds and private, personal business dealings.

Any thoughts, Adam?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / MI: Mitchell Research: Land leading by 6 on: April 15, 2014, 12:18:27 pm
Report.

Land (R)- 44%
Peters (D)- 38%
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / MI: Mitchell Research: Snyder leads by 12 on: April 15, 2014, 12:16:19 pm
Article.

Snyder (R)- 49%
Schauer (D)- 37%

They said at RRH that these guys skewed 4-7 points Republican in 2012 but they have a decent off-year record.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: WV-Gov: Manchin could run in '16 on: April 15, 2014, 11:32:21 am
I can't say I really blame him. He was more popular as Gov and I'm sure got more stuff done. It would be easier to win than the Senate seat, too.
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