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July 24, 2016, 01:48:43 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best and Worst Senators of the Past 50 Years: Washington on: July 23, 2016, 07:40:14 pm
Murray/Jackson.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: After disasterous RNC Speech who will challenge Ted Cruz in Senate GOP Primary? on: July 23, 2016, 07:33:13 pm
According to Alex Jones, Rep. John Carter says Cruz is finished and Perry will run.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Which poster better represents the Republican party? on: July 23, 2016, 07:25:10 pm
If we're talking about 2016, easily Santander.

Yeah, but I've failed to see anything "RINO"-ish about Tom. Seems like another generic blue avatar hack to me.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which State Will Give Johnson the Lowest Vote Percentage? on: July 23, 2016, 04:43:05 pm
Mississippi, as it gave Perot his lowest showing in '92 and '96, IIRC.


A state where he's not on the ballot?

He's on the ballot on all 50 states + DC.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Illinois Statewide Mega-Thread: State has first budget in over a year on: July 23, 2016, 04:36:27 pm
Teacher's union members crash Rauner's press conference after he insulted tem:

Quote
Teachers crashed a news conference to challenge Gov. Bruce Rauner to a “read-off” the day after a 2011 email was released in which he slammed Chicago Public Schools teachers, saying half of them are “virtually illiterate.”

Holding books about education and civil rights, CPS teachers stood up one by one to deliver commentary about Rauner’s leadership and address the governor’s comments, in which he also called half the school system’s principals “managerially incompetent.”

The demonstrators attacked Rauner’s position in the top 1 percent, his support of Charter school expansion and his spending on public services, referring to information from a document called “The People’s Agenda.”

After the handful of teachers were escorted out, Rauner said he regrets what he wrote in that email.

“The remark I made in that email five years ago was both inaccurate and intemperate, and I apologize,” Rauner told the press.


FF's!

It was so nice when Illinois had a Governor who cared about public education. Sad!
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best and Worst Senators of the Past 50 Years: West Virginia on: July 23, 2016, 02:28:59 am
Byrd is the word.

I'll say Capito for worst, mostly cuz the others are all FFs.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: July 23, 2016, 02:24:04 am
^ No, Campbell would still be the stronger candidate. Much of Fayard's coalition would migrate to him anyway but she wouldn't be able to get the votes he can out of northern LA.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: July 23, 2016, 02:20:32 am
^ Democrats need Campbell and Fayard to split the Dem share about evenly to have a shot an intraparty runoff. Campbell has the north and can likely do well in the river parishes. There are rural blacks around that region plus a fair presence of working class whites that he can appeal to. Fayard gets the white liberal areas of Baton Rouge, plus the Landrieu's should help her in New Orleans.

Pellerin, being from Lafayette, is from a region where Democrats are declining, so he should have the smallest base to draw from between them. He's also competing with Hebert for votes, to some extent.

Gary Landrieu, despite his name, just got 12% in Orleans Parish the last time he ran for LA-02, so he shouldn't be much of a factor there. Actually, he did better in the Baton Rouge precincts.


Would Fayard get enough female voters to be better in a runoff than Campbell?

In an intraparty runoff? I think Campbell wins as he's a better fit for the state overall.

The stylistic difference between Campebell and Fayard almost reminds me of the 1996 Senate primary. The main Democrats were Richard Ieyoub (traditional populist Long-ite) and Mary Landrieu (women from bigger city perceived as more of a mainstream liberal).
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Tim Kaine is selected as Hillary's VP and they win in November... on: July 23, 2016, 01:54:35 am
Gillespie not switching races:

Quote
@EdWGillespie
Actually Hugh, Kaine's not gonna get elected VP..and I am running for governor next year no matter what!
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: July 22, 2016, 11:49:24 pm
For the LA Congressional races:

LA-01: Rep. Steve Scalise, no doubt relived after dodging a bullet from a potential David Duke challenge, should easily clear 60% against a trio of Some Dude Democrats.

LA-02: It looks like outgoing Baton Rouge Mayor-President Kip Holden is following through with his run against Rep. Cedric Richmond. The race includes a third Some Dude Dem and a Libertarian. Richmond has geography and the state party on his side.

LA-03: Just after narrowly being squeezed out the LA Gov runoff, popular PSC member Scott Angelle is the favorite. Eight other Republicans are running, the most serious being State Rep. Frank Geymann and Bush - era Ambassador Grover Reeves. Two Democrats are running, but neither are credible. I'd guess that Angelle, from his crossover support, name rec, and emphasis of Cajun identity, finishes a strong first in the primary then goes into a runoff well-positioned.

LA-04: The main contest here will be the five-way Republican field. Dr. Trey Baucum has led in fundraising while State. Rep Mike Johnson and Shreveport Councilman Oliver Jenkins are also credible. The least serious Shreveport area Republican looks like attorney Rick John. From the district's very south end in St. Landry Parish, opportunist and self-serving fraud ex-State Sen. Elbert Guillory is running. Though Guillory is well known for his "look at me, everyone, I'm a black Republican!" speeches, he finished a very poor 4th in last year's LG primary. The only Democrat is attorney Marshall Jones.

LA-05:
After a competitive 2014 primary, freshman Rep. Ralph Abraham is getting a pass. He only has one intraparty opponent, Billy Burkette, who lacks a campaign website.

LA-06: Rep. Garret Graves is popular in his district and should win without a runoff. He faces fellow Republican Bob Bell, who ran in the crowded 2014 field as well but took just 2%. On the Democratic side Richard Lieberman is another candidate from last cycle and is joined by Jermaine Sampson. Two third party candidates are running.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe an Obama 2012/Trump voter on: July 22, 2016, 11:03:55 pm
White blue-collar workers and Huey Long Democrats.

Yeah - could have been me until Hillary picked Kaine.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Allegheny County, PA? on: July 22, 2016, 09:58:19 pm
Hillary, of course.

Every Democrat since Gore has gotten between 56-57% there, though Clinton likely gets a tick under that.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of lower side D: Tim Kaine on: July 22, 2016, 09:54:13 pm
Massive FF.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sanchez claims Obama only endorsed Harris because she's black on: July 22, 2016, 09:52:00 pm
She should have just said that Kamala Harris has been mentioned as the female version Obama (which she has). Better was to finesse that.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of the Clinton/Kaine ticket? on: July 22, 2016, 09:49:23 pm
FT.

This finally gets me on board as a Hillary supporter.
What did Trump do to lose your support?

I've met Tim Kaine and he's one of the personable, genuine pols I've seen.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of the Clinton/Kaine ticket? on: July 22, 2016, 09:45:53 pm
FT.

This finally gets me on board as a Hillary supporter.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: July 22, 2016, 09:36:36 pm
^ I'd think neither, as he's black.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-4 Poll: Mia Love not going anywhere on: July 22, 2016, 09:29:02 pm
This district was only 56% McCain in 2008, and Trump will likely run under that if the current Utah polling holds.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: July 22, 2016, 09:23:00 pm
^ If they want to drop out, the candidates have a week after the close of filing (today) to request their name be removed from the ballot.

Personally, 7 Democrats is more than I'd like...
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: July 22, 2016, 09:09:50 pm
^ No, the Landrieus are supporting Fayard.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IL: Kirk Slightly ahead in Internal despite large Clinton lead in same poll on: July 22, 2016, 09:08:09 pm
Decimals = junk poll!
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: July 22, 2016, 07:16:12 pm
Getting a bit past the Duke news, its looks like 24 candidates will be on the ballot. With that amount, there's good geographic diversity:

Republicans (9) :

- Charles Boustany (Lafayette)
- Joseph Cao (Jefferson)
- Donald "Crawdaddy" Crawford (St. Tammany)
- David Duke (St. Tammany)
- John Fleming (Webster)
- John Kennedy (East Baton Rouge)
- Rob Maness (St. Tammany)
- Charles Marsala (Jefferson)
- Abhay Patel (Orleans)

Democrats (7) :

- Foster Campbell (Bossier)
- Derrick Edwards (Jefferson)
- Caroline Fayard (East Baton Rouge)
- Gary Landrieu (Orleans)
- Vinny Mendoza (Tangipahoa)
- Josh Pellerin (Lafayette)
- Peter Williams (Pointe Coupee)

Libertarians (2) :

- Thomas Clements (Lafayette)
- Le Roy Gillam (St. Landry)

Independents/Other (6) :

- Beryl Billiot (Tangipahoa)
- Troy Hebert (Iberia)
- Bob Lang (Natchitoches)
- Kaitlin Marone (Orleans)
- Gregory Taylor (Orleans)
- Arden Wells (Tangipahoa)
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: July 22, 2016, 03:41:39 pm
^ He also ran for Senate in 1991, which was several years past his heyday, in a smaller field than this and still got almost 12%.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races on: July 22, 2016, 12:06:52 pm
Well, I always said that this seat was more vulnerable for Republicans than most people had assumed. That being said, I don't think Duke will win the GOP primary. A generic R vs. Campbell runoff will be competitive anyway, though.

There's no GOP primary.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA-SEN: David Duke running for Senate on: July 22, 2016, 12:05:36 pm
Lol
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