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April 23, 2014, 02:46:53 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-PPP: Gov. Walker (R) up 3 vs. Burke on: Today at 01:39:17 pm
Down 3% with 7% undecided is pretty good news for Burke considering Walker's name recognition.

There are also more undecided Democrats (8%) than Republicans (3%).
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: LA Governor 2015 Discussion Thread on: Today at 01:36:00 pm
^I'm surprised its not lower given that McAllister's news has been reminding everyone of his scandal.

I mean, LA being a conservative state, he votes the way a majority of his constituents think he should on the high profile issues. When it comes to stuff like flood insurance and coastal restoration, he'll work with Landrieu in tending to those local interests.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AK Congressional Races 2014 on: Today at 01:25:06 pm
Miller won't rule out running as an independent if he loses the GOP nomination.

I can only pray...
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI-SEN 2016 - PPP - Johnson -6 against Feingold, +2 against Kind on: Today at 01:14:07 pm
Glorious news! Of course, the good people of Wisconsin will certainly throw this thug out in 2016 in favor of someone who shares their values.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / NY-13: Bill Clinton goes to bat for Rangel on: Today at 01:00:34 pm
Article.

Quote
Former President Bill Clinton is set to back Rep. Charlie Rangel, who’s seeking a record-setting 23rd term in Congress. And the endorsement couldn’t come at a better time: The Harlem district representative has fallen out favor with several notable politicos.

The congressman’s campaign is expecting Mr. Clinton to take an active role that includes the use of his voice for automated telephone campaign calls, Newsmax reported.

Meanwhile, Mr. Rangel has more than paid his political dues to the former president.
In 1998, Mr. Rangel took a strong defensive stance for Mr. Clinton during his impeachment hearings. He followed that with a push for Mrs. Clinton to seek the Senate seat in New York in 2000, Newsmax reported.
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Is "Hey Soul Sister" one of the worst songs ever? on: Today at 12:56:49 pm
Yes, and I'm willing to stick out my neck and break out the '(normal)' on this one.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: New York Governor- 2014- Astornio vs Cuomo on: Today at 12:51:36 pm
The rent is still too damn high.

McMillan is running again.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OR Congressional races 2014 on: Today at 12:48:50 pm
Good Wehby ad featuring a former patient.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: Today at 12:38:34 pm
NC-Sen: One of the key counties to watch in the general election will be Guilford (where Greensboro is located); Hagan rep'd a State Senate seat there from 1998 until winning her Senate race in 2008. Normally, the county is pretty firmly Democratic, with Obama taking 58%-ish twice. Burr snagged it 50-48 in 2010, but he has personal strength in the Triad and had a good environment. If Hagan is under 55% there, thats likely a bad sign for her prospects elsewhere.

More NC-Sen: Though Brannon tried imply he had its endorsement, the Catawba Valley Tea Party will be supporting Tillis.

LA/NC/AR-Sen: Are southern Dems less vulnerable than the CW indicates? Nate Cohn makes the case. One good point he makes is that  most Republican Senatorial gains in the south have resulted from open seats (think of the 2004).

He gives Manchin, Nelson and McCaskill as the most recent examples. Good analysis overall, but all three races are a bit different from the ones this cycle in the south. Manchin has unique personal appeal, Nelson has an Obama state and McCaskill had Akin.

LA-Sen: The damn AFP bastards have another ad against Landrieu. AFP has reserved time in LA, MI, and NH.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: LA Governor 2015 Discussion Thread on: Today at 11:34:20 am
The NYt poll shows Jindal and Obama having identical 40/54 approvals. In what has regrettably been the trend lately, Vitter is the most popular state official, at 51/35.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / CO: Quinnipiac: Hick (D) leading by 7-10 points on: Today at 10:51:25 am
Article.

Hickenlooper- 47%
Tancredo- 40%

Hickenlooper- 48%
Gessler- 38%

Hickenlooper- 48%
Beauprez- 39%

Hickenlooper- 47%
Kopp- 38%
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / In KY-06, Jensen (D) runs on the ACA on: Today at 10:45:04 am
Article.

Quote
Even before the inauspicious launch of the Affordable Care Act, it’s been consensus wisdom among Red America’s chattering class that ambitious Democratic pols should distance themselves—far, far away—from the unpopular President’s eponymous health reform initiative.

But while Obamacare remains out of favor here in the Commonwealth—49 percent of Kentuckians in a February poll called for its repeal—the state’s implementation of the law has proven an unqualified success. Since its celebrated, glitch-free introduction, Governor Steve Beshear’s KYnect program has secured health coverage for more than 400,000 Kentuckians, representing nearly 10 percent of our state’s entire population. The stats pose a striking, shining irony here at Ground Zero of Rand Paul’s Tea Party and the home of the president’s leading antagonist, Senator Mitch McConnell—and it’s no wonder why the Obamas feted the Beshears both at the State of the Union and at a recent state dinner honoring French President Francois Hollande.

But even as Obamacare found its sea legs nationally and boasted solid first enrollment numbers in recent weeks, it still came as a surprise to local political watchers when a Kentucky Democratic congressional candidate picked up the ACA baton and used it to bash the GOP incumbent that she is challenging. Elisabeth Jensen, the presumptive favorite to take on Lexington Congressman Andy Barr this November, emerged last week as the first federal candidate in the region—and one of only a few in the entire country—to broadcast a campaign ad championing health care reform, and attacking her opponent for voting more than a dozen times to repeal it.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: Today at 10:39:26 am

No chance he gets the run-off unfortunately?

If conservatives are still lukewarm on Cassidy and the tea party makes a major push in this race, I could maybe see it. Still, its doubtful.

One benefit Maness has is that his primary is last. If the tea party's Senate candidates go down in earlier primaries, groups like the SCF and Madison Porject could try to claim a win here by ramping up support for Maness
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: Today at 10:22:10 am
In a Maness-Landrieu run off, would Landrieu have the same chance to win than a Cassidy-Landrieu run off?

LOLno
I already knew the answer, but could you be more precise please?

- Crappy fundraising
- No geographical base
- Little appeal to independents
- Would almost encourage some estblashnent Rs to endorse Landrieu it stay quiet
- Mostly untested as a serious candidate and might be gaffe-prone
- Suggested he'd vote against Katrina aid on grounds of principle
- Easy for Landrieu to define
15  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: WalterMitty vs. MilesC56 on: Today at 10:10:39 am
Both are ok, but gotta go with Miles Cheesy

288-250 Miles.  Closest state is, of course, North Carolina.

Why would NC be close? I've lived there for 12 years and have a pretty decent understanding of its politics Wink

Mitty is an NC native and voted for Jesse Helms. Tongue

I thought he was from southwest VA.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: Today at 10:03:21 am
In a Maness-Landrieu run off, would Landrieu have the same chance to win than a Cassidy-Landrieu run off?

LOLno
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: Today at 09:48:17 am
We'll Landrieu will obviously have a bigger lead than Hagsn if you're comparing a jungle primary to a general election.

Those are the best approvals I've seen for her in a while, which would be good of true. 42% is a bit low, but the undecideds are high all around. A runoff test would have been nice.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Final Post-Reconstruction Southern Republican Primary: Virginia on: Today at 03:54:34 am
Voted Holton but overlooked Warner.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: WalterMitty vs. MilesC56 on: Today at 03:44:08 am
Both are ok, but gotta go with Miles Cheesy

288-250 Miles.  Closest state is, of course, North Carolina.

Why would NC be close? I've lived there for 12 years and have a pretty decent understanding of its politics Wink
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: Today at 03:28:52 am
'Pretty long digest as its been a while since I've put one together!

NC-Sen: ICYMI, there was a debate last night with another set for tonight. Overall, there weren't any serious quarrels/meltdowns and it wasn't a game changer by any means.

The trend that emerged: Brannon would contrast himself to Tillis (by quoting the Constitution or staking out the farthest right position) and then Tillis would bash Hagan. A theme in their exchanges was the battle of gun endorsements. Tillis has the NRA in his corner but Brannon pointed out that the 'more conservative' Gun Owners of America (and one or two others) back him. Tillis also brought up his endorsement by the NRLC, but Brannon's background as an obstetrician neutralizes that somewhat.

Grant had a solid performance and I thought she was the most specific when it came to actual policy. She also can across as the most genuine, IMO. I know this is cliche as hell, but she can probably connect the most with the 'average voter.' In her closing statement, she cast herself as 'true, real leader.'

If I had to pick the worst performer, I'd say Harris. He didn't have any gaffes, but was pretty bland throughout. I know he's had a lot on his mind recently (with the death of his father last week) and I certainly sympathize with him, but I think he can do better. Look for him to play up his socon credentials in the next debates.

NC-02: We have ads from all three major candidates here. The link is to the one Yankee and I were talking about. Perhaps taking a hint from Nikki Haley, Crisco is going full-negative on Aiken. Aiken missed all the meetings for a commission he sat on for special needs children. The commission was under George W. Bush; Aiken even touted it in his campaign announcement video.

Akin has his own ad running. Its an abbreviated version of his announcement video, which was very well-received.

Finally, Ellmers is also up on the air. She mentions her efforts to repeal and replace the ACA. As she's favored in the primary, its a bit odd to see her spending on ads beforehand, but I guess insurance is good.

NC-03: Very interesting outside spending here. The Koch Industries PAC gave $5K to Griffin while AFP has run ads for Jones.

NC-06: The Democrat, Laura FJeld is (I think) the first candidate here to go up with an ad. Its a biographical spot focusing on her history with education issues.

NC-12: As you would expect, all the Democrats support raising the minimum wage. The difference is a matter of the degree:

Quote
He called President Barack Obama’s proposal of a $10.10 minimum “a good start.” Brandon and Osborne said it should be $15. Adams, a Greensboro lawmaker who touts her efforts to raise the state minimum wage, would put it at $12. And Graham, a state senator from Charlotte, said he’d raise it to $12 to $15.

Alma Adams went after Brandon on his support for the GOP's school voucher plan. I'm not counting in Brandon making the runoff, in part because his support for vouchers has been an albatross for him the entire campaign.



LA-Sen: Cassidy says if the race goes toa runoff, world leaders will be watching LA, one of the most notable being Putin. If I didn't know any better, I'd say Putin would want Landrieu to lose, on account of Russia designating her for sanctions. Cassidy has a different take:

Quote
For 30 days the entire world will be looking at Louisiana and that sounds a little bit like rhetoric but think about it. You don’t think Vladimir Putin is going to look to see if the Senate remains Democrat which is to say a rubber stamp for Barack Obama or if there is a Republican senate which would insist upon a strong military? The Chinese, the Iranians, the Israelis, they’re all going to be watching Louisiana for those 30 days.

If the LAGOP is smart, they should be trying to bribe the Russian government into adding Cassidy's name to the sanctions list Grin

More LA-Sen: Not one to run from here record, Landrieu continues embracing the ACA, specifically the Medicaid expansion. Proponents are pushing for a statewide referendum, which the legislature is set to consider this week. If nothing happens, the (popular) issue will still be on the table for Landrieu to push. One of the biggest risks for Cassidy here is that Democrats will be able to tie him to Jindal.

More LA-Sen: Sugar may again be an issue here. The feds are investigating reports that Mexico illegally sold sugar to the US at below-market costs, and thus hurting farmers in LA. If this gets more attention in the press, I'd say Landrieu is the beneficiary, as the sugar issue helped her beat Terrell in 2002.

LA-Sen/LA-06: The Tea Party Express will be hosting a rally for Maness and Dietzel this week. I was considering going to 'cover' this, but I've already heard them each speak and I don't feel like scraping the Claitor sticker off my car ('ya know, so they wouldn't identify me as an intruder Wink).
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Pro-life Dems feeling partisan pinch on: Today at 02:12:03 am
In regards to Jim Matheson; he's at least not a "no abortions ever" type. The LDS Church is one of the churches that is fine with abortion in event of rape, incest, life of the mother in danger, and nonviable fetus.

FWIW, Mormon Democrats have a very good online community going; I always like reading their stuff.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which Democrat is more competitive against Rick Scott? on: Today at 12:30:39 am
why is this a question
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If you could change the outcome of one of these elections, which would you? on: Today at 12:24:53 am
1980
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Pro-life Dems feeling partisan pinch on: April 22, 2014, 11:12:34 pm
Who are the seven pro-life Democrats?

Lipinski
Manchin
McIntyre?
Barrow?
Rahall?

Barrow is pro-choice. I think one of the South Texas Dems, Cuellar or Hinojosa, is pro-life.

Also add Peterson.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Bob Dole goes home on: April 22, 2014, 11:09:37 pm
I took the thread title to be a euphemism for "dead".
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 452


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