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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: AR-04: OnMessage (R): Westerman in the driver's seat on: Today at 12:09:29 am
^ Cotton should be clearly ahead if he were putting out a 10-point lead in CD4. The TalkBusiness poll only had Cotton +5 in CD4 but up 2 statewide.

If you adjust the TalkBusiness poll for a 49/39 Cotton lead in CD4 (easy because they weighted all CDs equal) Cotton would be up 45-41.5 (outside the MoE).
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Current politicians that you think is "meh" or "yawn.... on: August 20, 2014, 11:30:54 pm
About 375 members of the House and 75 in the Senate. They are more commonly called "backbenchers."
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: AR-04: OnMessage (R): Westerman in the driver's seat on: August 20, 2014, 11:27:01 pm
Granted, this is an internal, but it about lines up with TalkBusiness. I thought Witt would be a much better candidate. Westerman was considered the stronger Republican, but still.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OR/NH: RGA: GOP challengers within striking distance? on: August 20, 2014, 11:22:32 pm
^ Haha, I don't add internals anyway, but especially not these.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Top 3 most hostile states to win a senate seat as a Democrat or Republican?, on: August 20, 2014, 11:21:28 pm
On paper, I'd say Utah is one of the most hostile states for Dems, but I could easily see Jim Matheson getting elected to something statewide within the next decade.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MT: Rasmussen: Daines leading by 20 on: August 20, 2014, 11:12:38 pm
^ Sorry, my mistake.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / OR/NH: RGA: GOP challengers within striking distance? on: August 20, 2014, 10:56:54 pm
New Hampshire:

Hassan (D)- 42%
Havenstein (R)- 37%

Oregon:

Kitzhaber (D)- 42%
Richardson (R)- 38%
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Libertarian candidates on: August 20, 2014, 10:49:19 pm
Haugh has gotten a lot of attention.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight: 6 Most Likely Tipping Point Races on: August 20, 2014, 04:32:10 pm
^ Er, ok. I don't consider McCain and Romney particularly 'loony' by Republican standards, but ok.

His point is that if Republicans are ousting an incumbent in a Democratic-tilting state, they've probably won the Senate. I agree.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight: 6 Most Likely Tipping Point Races on: August 20, 2014, 04:22:27 pm
^ It has a Democratic PVI. I don't think the implication was that it's solidly blue.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / AR-04: OnMessage (R): Westerman in the driver's seat on: August 20, 2014, 03:52:03 pm
Article.

Westerman (R)- 47%
Witt (D)- 29%
Hamilton (L)- 7%
Undecided- 18%

Cotton leads 49/39 and Hutchinson 46/43 in CD4.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: August 20, 2014, 02:53:29 pm
Jindal heading to the southwest tomorrow:

Quote
Melinda Deslatte‏@MelindaDeslatteˇ
 Gov. @BobbyJindal heading to Arizona and New Mexico for America Next meetings and candidate fundraising. Back to BR on Thursday.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight: 6 Most Likely Tipping Point Races on: August 20, 2014, 02:43:05 pm
Not to undercut Enten, but I think any of us here could have told ya'll that.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead on: August 20, 2014, 01:19:41 pm
^ Wow, yeah. They said Romney was clearly gonna win FL, VA and NC so no need to poll them.

'Guess 1 for 3 is a good record Wink
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead on: August 20, 2014, 01:13:25 pm
^ I don't think they've done much work in NC, but looks like most of their 2012 polls underestimated Obama in swing states.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead on: August 20, 2014, 01:08:52 pm
Article.

Hagan (D)- 45%
Tillis (R)- 43%
Haugh (L)- 5%
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Iowa Megathread on: August 20, 2014, 12:52:30 pm
Ernst: $7.25 a great wage...for high school kids:

Quote
Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in the state, argued that $7.25 an hour, the federal minimum wage, is a good starting wage for high school students. But according to a Pew Research study, just 24 percent of people on the minimum wage are teenagers between 16 and 19.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Ballot Measure 1 (Alaska) on: August 20, 2014, 11:59:57 am
No.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MT: Rasmussen: Daines leading by 20 on: August 20, 2014, 11:14:58 am
I've noticed this with a few other of their recent reports, but Rassy isn't giving out much info about its polls. For instance, in this report, they don't even give the topline for Roots (the Libertarian), or say what % is undecided. I assume Platinum members get the toplines and full info, but Rassy has always been really reclusive.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / MT: Rasmussen: Daines leading by 20 on: August 20, 2014, 11:11:34 am
New Poll: Montana Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-08-19

Summary: D: 35%, R: 55%, I: 0%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: August 20, 2014, 10:34:45 am
Well, its filing day in Louisiana! So far, there don't seem to be any surprises, at least in the higher-profile races. Both Landrieu and Cassidy have qualified; no word on Maness yet. I haven't heard reports of Edwards or McAllister yet, but most of the other major players in their respective races have already filed.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who wins control? on: August 20, 2014, 10:15:07 am
FWIW, the Upshot has Republicans' chanes up to 61%.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH-Gov: Fitzgerald in on: August 20, 2014, 10:00:47 am
This race is just freakin painful to watch now.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Kansas Megathread on: August 20, 2014, 09:59:42 am
Quote
John Celock‏@JohnCelock
.@GovChristie is in Kansas today for @The_RGA fundraiser and campaigning for @govsambrownback #ksleg #kseln #ksgov
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The next AK poll... on: August 20, 2014, 09:53:40 am
Polls in Alaska are meaningless.

The only "poll" that counts there is the one on election day.
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