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October 31, 2014, 11:12:03 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / NY-11: Siena: Grimm up 19 (!) on: Today at 06:10:14 pm
Article.

Grimm (R)- 53%
Recchia (D)- 34%
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OH-FOX News: FitzGerald surges, cuts Kasich's lead in half on: Today at 06:04:47 pm
#Fitzgeraldwithin20
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: Today at 05:19:42 pm
The "final" internal poll the Udall campaign is leaking has the race tied at 46.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox polls at 6pm: IA, NC, KS on: Today at 05:08:13 pm
I can buy early voters going 51-36 for Orman and even 55-31 for Hagan, but 61-31 for Ernst? Small sub-samples, I suppose.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox polls at 6pm: IA, NC, KS on: Today at 05:03:25 pm
^ Sorry, fixed.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox polls at 6pm: IA, NC, KS on: Today at 04:56:58 pm
Orman up 44/43, Ernst 45/44, Hagan 43/42.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Predict IA-Sen by CD on: Today at 03:57:44 pm
2012, for reference:



I'd guess something like:

CD1: 53/46 Braley
CD2: 53/45 Braley
CD3: 52/46 Ernst
CD4: 57/42 Ernst

I'm predicting a slight Ernst win; if all the districts cast about an even number of votes, she should win 50/48.5-ish based on my numbers.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CNN-IA/NC: Ernst +2, Hagan +2 on: Today at 03:11:45 pm
Reports:

North Carolina

Iowa

Favorables seem rosy for all of them. Braley/Ernst are each at +2, Hagan +1 and Tillis -7.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / NH: Vox Populi: Hassan trailing on: Today at 01:49:00 pm
Report.

Havenstein (R)- 47%
Hassan (D)- 44%


It's happening! What a nice poll this is.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Landrieu: Obama and I struggling because South is racist/sexist on: Today at 01:27:34 pm
I never said that the quote would be determinative. I think I pretty much said it won't matter for Tuesday's election.



Quote
However, an us vs. them type of analogy this close to an election instead of a unifying message is not smart politics. It was better left unsaid.

Er, I'm not sure. Given how few swing voters there are in LA, this might not hurt her as much as you seem to think. This could very well motivate blacks to turnout out for her; otherwise a party that thinks racism doesn't exist anymore could win.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Zogby: Gardner+9, Ernst+7, Orman+5, Hagan+3, NH tied on: Today at 01:20:04 pm
lolZogby
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is there any chance Landrieu breaks 50% on Nov. 4th? on: Today at 12:30:04 pm
No, I would expect her to be around 45%, her ceiling is probably 47-48%
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rick Weiland implodes, accuses DSCC of sabotaging his campaign on: Today at 12:08:14 pm
It still doesn't sound like Weiland is a fan of Harry Reid:

Quote
Escalating his feud with national Democrats, South Dakota Democratic Senate nominee Rick Weiland announced this morning that hes starting a national petition drive to replace Harry Reid as majority leader with progressive Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Western New England University: Coakley down 5 on: Today at 12:03:17 pm
MA is light blue on the map but it still says Lean Baker.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / IA: Rasmussen: Ernst clings to 1% lead on: Today at 11:59:25 am
Link coming.

Ernst (R)- 48%
Braley (D)- 47%
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / NH: Rasmussen: Shaheen up 7 on: Today at 11:58:07 am
Link coming.

Shaheen (D)- 52%
Brown (R)- 45%


I think she's up, but not by this much.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Landrieu: Obama and I struggling because South is racist/sexist on: Today at 11:47:49 am
I like this. Its a good way of driving up African-American turnout.

I am not sure if pulling the race and war on women cards out is going to help her more than it's going to hurt her.

Nuanced or not, couched in politically correct words or not, she likely offended a good number of Louisiana voters.

It certainly won't help her avoid the inevitable runoff, so it was probably better left not said at this point.

I doubt it. I know a lot of people voting against Landrieu; they're not doing so just because of this.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: opinion of Josh Kraushar on: Today at 11:19:06 am
Trende himself has been enough of a GOP cheerleader this cycle. We know where Kraushaar's sympathies are.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK-Rasmussen: Sullivan +5 on: Today at 11:10:25 am
How accurate are those early numbers compared to what has been returned so far? Was Alaska one of the states with a Dem advantage in early voting?

Alaska's early vote has always trended Democratic in recent cycles. So much so that it makes precinct-level maps inaccurate because the early vote is only broken down by House District, not precinct. 

One thing to keep in mind is that at least in the primary, late early votes (from the days immediately before the election) aren't counted on election night. So if Sullivan and Begich are close to tied on election night, Begich will likely win.

Also I've heard that the ballots sent in from the rural Native areas could take 4-5 extra days to count.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Election Night - Drink of Choice? on: Today at 10:53:02 am
I don't drink, so probably some kind of diet soda.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: VA: PPP: Warner +9 on: Today at 10:04:46 am
49/40 plus 5% for Sarvis.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: Today at 09:17:08 am
NC: Less than two days of early voting left and Republicans are just now reaching parity with 2010:

23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Will the Republicans... on: Today at 12:22:54 am
...net more Senate seats or House seats?

The last time the Senate net change was greater than the House change was 2004.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can't we just have one thread for Election Night results? on: Today at 12:12:49 am
As much as I appreciate Tender's initiative in making individual threads, I think this is the best solution:

Four in my opinion

1) House Races
2) Senate Races
3) Gubernatorial contests
4) Down ballot initiatives.  

Of course, what pages do we put these on, the polling ones or the main pages?

Yeah, but the gubernatorial contests and downballot initiatives threads should be under Statewide Elections, not Congressional Elections.

'Kinda goes without saying...
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Landrieu: Obama and I struggling because South is racist/sexist on: October 30, 2014, 11:01:40 pm
Thid is such a non-story. Of course blacks have struggled in the south.

As much as I love my state, remember, less than 25 years ago, David Duke was getting near 60% of the white vote.

And as for this 'sexism,' the Louisiana legislature has one of the lowest shares of women of any state chamber.
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