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July 23, 2014, 12:47:40 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / WI: Marquette: Walker +1 on: Today at 12:35:23 pm
Report.

Walker (R)- 46%
Burke (D)- 45%
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which of the following candidates think they'll win their senatorial election? on: Today at 08:26:12 am
Gillespie, of course.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread on: Today at 08:23:50 am
CNN/ORC: 42/55 nationally.

The ACA is at 40/59.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: Today at 08:16:13 am
FWIW, Kingston won the counties in his district with 78.7%, up from 72.9% in the primary.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy Birthday Franzl! on: Today at 08:06:34 am
Happy (late) birthday!
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Happy Birthday, Hashemite! on: Today at 08:05:11 am
Happy birthday!
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Georgia? on: Today at 08:03:57 am
Gun to my head, Perdue, but he could very well ruin that with a gaffe or two.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: Today at 07:57:49 am
NC-Sen: Tillis is playing hardball with Democrats in the NCGA; with the intraparty fighting on his own side, I'm not sure its wise to be picking these types of fights (and getting press for it):

Quote
(House Minority Leader) Larry Hall has come out accusing Speaker of the House Thom Tillis of defunding the House Democratic Caucus as a retaliation for Democrat's questioning of the new legislative building rules that were clearly aimed at stifling Moral Monday. He says that he was told he would be defunded if he did not "apologize" to House Republican leaders for questioning the building rules changes. The "defunding" simply takes away the Democrats General Assembly earmarked budget to hire a chief-of-staff.
 
It is unheard of in NC General Assembly history for the majority party
 to defund the minority party.

More NC-Sen: Freedom Partners, one of the primary Koch fronts, is dropping "at least" $2.8M here between August and September.

The Patriot Majority PAC is countering with a $1M buy linking Tillis to the Kochs.

More NC-Sen: In terms of its financial/logistical standing, the NC Democratic party is about on par with the MN or NV Republicans. As such Hagan's campaign has mostly been operating without its help. Instead, Hagan has been working closely with the Wake County Democrats; this isn't really a new development, but the NYT has some fundraising numbers. In June, for instance, the Wake County Dems outraised the state party by about 4:1.

LA-Sen: On the fundraising front, I don't think it comes as a surprise that this will be the most expensive race in LA history. Combined, Cassidy and Landrieu have raised nearly $22M plus a little over $1M for Maness. Also, for some perspective, in 2008, John Kennedy raised $4.8 million. Casssidy surpassed that...after Q1.

Some good news for Cassidy is that, while he's always been outraised, he's pulling close to Landrieu in terms of CoH. Its a bit worrisome for Landrieu, but she did drop over $2M for large ad buys. That series of ads has been running since April, so at least she got a lot of 'mileage' with that buy.

LA-05: Should McAllister drop the GOP and run as an Independent? Between his poor treatment by the GOP rank-and-file and his mavericky appeal, state political sage Jeremy Alford thinks an Independent run might make sense for McAllister. Alford also argues that since Independents are growing in numbers (both in LA and elsewhere) they should get some representation in Congress.

Speaking of this race, Elbert Guillory extend his decision deadline to July 15...still no word. I guess, as with his party affiliation, Guillory can't make up his mind about which races to run in.

LA-06: This may end up as an ad, but Garret Graves has a cutsy video out featuring his young kids. Claitor has released a few brief web videos, but I don't think anyone has actually gine up on the air here.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Crist (D) leads by 2 (or 5) on: Today at 07:21:50 am
Wow, the SUSA poll is looking more legit now.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Survey USA: Crist's Lead Expanding on: July 22, 2014, 10:54:00 pm
Good if true; the only reason I'm skeptical is that Crist went from -1 to +8 in just under a month.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 10:36:32 pm
And there it is:

Quote
I called @Perduesenate to congratulate him and offer my support for his campaign in the General Election.
@JackKingston4GA
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Washington/West Virginia Senators on: July 22, 2014, 09:44:25 pm
Certainly one of the more FF-ish quartets.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Company Men: COC flexes its political muscle on: July 22, 2014, 09:19:39 pm
They at least got their way in GA-01 with Carter though.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 09:07:23 pm
Politico still has the senate within recount territory, 50.4 to 49.6 at 84% in. The remaining urban vote is still significant, though.

The SoS site is faster and they have Perdue +1.2%.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 09:04:41 pm
Perdue's also gaining the ATL metro counties as they come in. He started out up 5 in Cobb, now he's up almost 7.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 09:01:44 pm
Perdue's lead is up to 1.05% (he's moved out of the recount range).
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 08:48:49 pm
AP calls CD1 for Buddy Carter. That race was looking closer though.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 08:44:38 pm
AP calls CD10 for Hice. Ugh.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Hagan expands lead, but Haugh at 8% on: July 22, 2014, 08:42:02 pm
This is largely because the legislature is in session. Once it goes home the Hagan lead will get smaller and might go away entirely.

This is pretty much it. Wouldn't the people WANT to get Tillis out of the state house?

He's already giving up his seat to run for Senate in the first place...
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 08:36:55 pm
^ And Perdue is back up by 2100!
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 08:34:14 pm
Chatham County still has half to report and the margin is huge for Kingston. I don't think this should be called yet.

This was AOS' justification:

Quote
Chatham county already has 14,009 votes in. Expected, high-turnout? 14,292. I just don't see more votes there.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 08:27:56 pm
Kingston winning Clarke County

He can thank this guy.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 08:23:52 pm
SOS has every county except for Dade (in NW Georgia) reporting something.

Dade is tied with all (7) precincts in.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 08:22:45 pm
It's very clear who the biggest enemy to the tea party is:


Urban republicans in primary elections.

If only...
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (July 22: The GA-runoff) on: July 22, 2014, 08:12:01 pm
Kinsgton is running out of Chatham County. Only a few precincts left there are still out.
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