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4276  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Final Vote Totals on: August 24, 2004, 05:43:30 pm
Fellow citizens of the Atlas Forum, after carefully considering the evidence and testimony of all sides, the Atlas Forum Supreme Court comes to the following decision:

NixonNow's vote merged the names of RReagan4EVER and MAS 117.  He did not put any qualifiers next to the name, for example: (UAC-NJ).  Therefore, we do not believe it is clear to tell who he voted for.  For any vote to be valid, there must be no doubt as to the intent of the voter.  Accepting such a confusing vote as valid would set a bad precedent for the future of Atlas Forum elections.

We therefore reverse Secretary of Forum Affairs Fritz's ruling, and declare NixonNow's vote invalid.

-Atlas Forum Chief Justice KEmperor writing for the majority, Justices MAS117 and Nym90 concurring.

Akno21 is declared the winner in District 2A.
4277  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 01:14:33 pm
Niles, I think you should vote in the run-off, since you did vote in the election this is a run-off for, and then bow out of voting after that.

Other opinions?
4278  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Where Bush-Cheney needs to be on: August 24, 2004, 12:17:35 pm
Received by e-mail....

To: The Kerry-Edwards Campaign
From: Mark Mellman, Senior Strategist
Re: Where Bush-Cheney Needs To Be
Date:  August 24, 2004  

As a senior strategist for John Kerry, I have prepared this update for the campaign's most active supporters as we enter the crucial weeks ahead. It's clear that your support has put this campaign in such a strong position as we enter a critical period. Your hard work, activism, and contributions have allowed our campaign to match the Bush campaign on the airwaves and on the ground. I can report that all you've done is now paying off when it counts the most.

By any standard, President Bush heads into his convention in a very weak position. His current position stems from the fact that voters judge the incumbent on his performance and on the state of the nation. By this measure, the president is in grave difficulty. To be counted a success, the Republican convention must fundamentally alter public attitudes on President Bush's stewardship of the country.

There are some basic benchmarks by which an incumbent's success can be measured as the campaign heads into the fall:

-The average winning incumbent has had a job approval rating of 60%. Indeed, every incumbent who has won reelection has had his job approval in the mid-50's or higher at this point. In recent polling, Bush's average approval rating has been 48%. President Bush must emerge from his convention having dramatically altered public perception of his performance in office.
 
-In recent years, when incumbents have gone on to victory, 52% of voters, on average, said the country was on the right track. Now, just 37% think things are moving in the right direction. Thus, President Bush must convince the electorate that the nation is in much better shape than voters now believe to be the case.

-Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead at this point.

-Following their conventions, the average elected incumbent has held a 16-point lead, while winning incumbents have led by an average of 27 points. Bush will need a very substantial bounce to reach the mark set by his successful predecessors.

-Incumbents have enjoyed an average bounce in the vote margin of 8 points.

-On average, incumbents' share of the two-party vote has declined by 4 points between their convention and Election Day.

 
President Bush has the opportunity to achieve an average, or even greater, bounce from his convention. Typically, elected incumbents go into their conventions with a 9-point lead, while incumbents who have gone on to win enter their conventions with a 21-point lead. Most current polls show the race quite close. This gives the president substantial room to bounce. By contrast, Senator Kerry entered his convention in a far stronger position than the average challenger. The average challenger goes into his convention 16 points behind, while Senator Kerry entered his convention with a 1-2 point lead. This gave Senator Kerry much less room to bounce.

However, as the data above makes clear, average is not enough for President Bush. Incumbents who went on to win reelection had an average lead of 27 points after their convention. Indeed, the average elected incumbent -- winners and losers -- had a lead of 16 points after their conventions. An average bounce would still leave Bush well below the historical mark set by other incumbents, particularly those who went on to victory.

Perhaps most important, the average elected incumbent experienced a 4-point drop in his share of the two-party vote from the post-convention polling to Election Day. Thus, to beat the odds, President Bush will need to be garnering 55% of the two-party vote after his convention. Anything less than that and the president will remain in grave political danger.
4279  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 11:24:37 am
Secretary Fritz,

It's been mentioned to me that acting GMs are not permitted to vote.  Is this the Forum policy?  A strong suggestion?  By the time the runnoff rolls around, I'll be neck deep in it.

Thats an interesting question, and I dont know how to answer it.  Legally, there is nothing saying a GM cannot vote.  I think it is more of a strong suggestion that they do not.  Ernest was registered to vote while he was GM (as an independent), but I don't think a vote ever came up.

I think other forum members should express their opinion about this.  I can see good arguments for the GM not being allowed to vote, but like I said that's not really written into law.  Perhaps in this one case we could make an exception, since this is a re-vote of an election you did vote in.

Anyways, lets hear what others have to say.  Based on prevailing opinion, you may wish to re-consider becoming GM.
4280  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Are write in votes now accepted? What did I miss? on: August 24, 2004, 10:21:25 am
See the "Decisions of the Supreme Court" thread I just bumped up.
4281  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Decisions of the Supreme Court on: August 24, 2004, 10:04:30 am
Regarding the legitimacy of PBrunsels election as Governor- according to this ruling, votes for PBrunsel were valid, but his candidacy was not as he never declared.  If ILikeVerin were to challenge PBrunsel's election, then PBrunsel would have to declare himself a candidate and a re-vote be held.

I would also like to refer to the section of the Constitution this ruling is based upon:

Clause 2. In order for a senator to be elected, a forum member must declare his or her candidacy for the senate seat of the region or district they wish to represent. Members residing in that region or district shall then appoint said candidate or opponent by proper electoral process.

This refers to Senator elections, not Governor elections.  The rules for Governor elections are set by Regional constitutions.  So the same ruling would not apply.
4282  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Decisions of the Supreme Court on: August 24, 2004, 09:54:46 am
THE DECISION OF THE SUPREME COURT IN THE CASE OF M v. HARRY:

[The following portion of the decision was reached by a unanimous vote]
The Supreme Court, pursuant to the declaration clause, finds the candidacy of M invalid. There was no formal announcement of intent. The Court, however, under the concept of electoral participation, finds the votes for him valid. Therefore, the Court gives M until 5:00 P.M. Tuesday to formally announce his decision. A by-election to fill the vacancy will be held on Thursday and Friday. If no such declaration is made, this Court finds Harry to rightfully be the Senator.

[The following section was decided 2-1, with migrendel and Mas117 forming the majority and KEmperor dissenting.]
In addition, the Court restricts candidate participation in the by-election to M and Harry.

[The following case was decided per curiam]
The Supreme Court orders a special election between Lewis Trondheim and his opponent on Thursday and Friday to give the non-participating voters a chance to break the deadlock.

Bump, because matters resolved in this case have been brought forward.
4283  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Are write in votes now accepted? What did I miss? on: August 24, 2004, 09:30:01 am
Well, I strongly disagree.  What is the point of even having "write-in" on the ballot then?

PBrunsel did vote for himself, too.
4284  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Migrendel on: August 24, 2004, 09:18:13 am
If you look at how I posted the results, for 2A I gave 2 alternate results- one if NixonNows vote was counted, and one if it isn't.

I did count his vote in 2B, and no one has challenged it.  It wouldn't affect the outcome even if someone did.

However, if Migrendel doesn't show up to be sworn in, it might become an issue.  If NixonNows vote were to be counted, Bono wins.  If not, Umengus wins.  But someone would have to legally challenge that NixonNows vote for "bobo" wasn't valid.  By the time this becomes an issue, I think the court will have ruled in Akno21 vs. Fritz, which would more or less settle this question as well, hopefully.
4285  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Migrendel on: August 24, 2004, 09:11:31 am
This election isn't in court.  Only the Akno/Rreagan4EVER election is in court.

And the numbers you are giving aren't right, anyways.

Why is that one not in court? He voted for "bobo" and then indicated later he intended to vote for Bono, was that vote counted?

If the numbers I am giving aren't right then yours listed in the thread must not be:

Final run-off:
Migrendel- 6
Bono-5
Migrendel wins.

If Bono gets the vote of NixonNow then that becomes 6-6 and Bono would win as all his votes are first preferences or was NixonNow's vote counted in the first place?

NixonNows vote is counted in the total given for Bono of 5 votes.  Not counting NixonNows vote brings Bono down to 4.
4286  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Migrendel on: August 24, 2004, 09:04:54 am
This election isn't in court.  Only the Akno/Rreagan4EVER election is in court.

And the numbers you are giving aren't right, anyways.
4287  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Migrendel on: August 24, 2004, 09:00:55 am
Hasn't posted anything in over a week now.  Does he really want the job as Senator?
4288  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Are write in votes now accepted? What did I miss? on: August 24, 2004, 07:57:56 am
I think ILikeVerin would be foolish to challenge PBrunsels election based on this, and I hope he doesn't do it.  PBrunsel obviously wants the job, has made an accceptance speech and everything, and his user name is currently Governor-Elect PBrunsel.
4289  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Anti-UAC People of Atlasia: UNITE! on: August 24, 2004, 07:27:28 am
I doubt we had much effect, I don't think a single UAC member voted in that election Bono, I am sorry to see you hate us.


JFK is correct, no one from the UAC voted in that election.
4290  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 07:20:20 am
Ok, I'll take your word for it.

So will Justin then be allowed to vote in this election as well?

I don't think so.  He was in NH in the election last weekend, and voted there.  
4291  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 07:14:09 am
Ok, I'll take your word for it.
4292  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 07:09:55 am
Is this open only to those 16 who voted last week, or to any D4 resident [ie, nclib]?

Open to all District 4 residents who were eligible to vote in District 4 this last weekend.
No, sorry, open to any District 4 residents who were registered there before the election - whether they were eligible or not. Look it up in the District 5 controversy of 4 months back if you don't believe me, but that's what the SC ruled, and that's what got StevenNick in the Senate.

Lewis, are you sure about this?  Can you find the link for me?  The only voter it affects is WalterMitty.  
4293  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 07:01:05 am
Is this open only to those 16 who voted last week, or to any D4 resident [ie, nclib]?

Open to all District 4 residents who were eligible to vote in District 4 this last weekend.
No, sorry, open to any District 4 residents who were registered there before the election - whether they were eligible or not. Look it up in the District 5 controversy of 4 months back if you don't believe me, but that's what the SC ruled, and that's what got StevenNick in the Senate.

Not sure what you're referring to here.  It won't be an issue anyways because there have been no new registrants in district 4.  I phrased my response the way I did to make clear that Justin, who just moved to Florida,  can't vote in the runoff election.

Walter Mitty registered and was not eligible to vote before, he is in District 4.

Youre right!  I guess WalterMitty can vote in the runoff.  Good point.
4294  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 06:57:56 am
Fritz, will those whose registrations you just nullified be allowed to vote in the special election?

Not an issue, none of them were from D4.   If they were, I think I would have to allow it.
4295  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 06:55:14 am
Is this open only to those 16 who voted last week, or to any D4 resident [ie, nclib]?

Open to all District 4 residents who were eligible to vote in District 4 this last weekend.
No, sorry, open to any District 4 residents who were registered there before the election - whether they were eligible or not. Look it up in the District 5 controversy of 4 months back if you don't believe me, but that's what the SC ruled, and that's what got StevenNick in the Senate.

Not sure what you're referring to here.  It won't be an issue anyways because there have been no new registrants in district 4.  I phrased my response the way I did to make clear that Justin, who just moved to Florida,  can't vote in the runoff election.
4296  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Josh22 on: August 24, 2004, 06:48:03 am
Yes, I'm sure.
4297  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 06:44:49 am
No, he didn't.  He was registered as an independent while he was GM.
4298  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Josh22 on: August 24, 2004, 06:42:57 am
Ernest's registration of August 14 was merely a change of party.  He was registered prior to that, so his vote is valid.
4299  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 24, 2004, 06:41:17 am
Ernest's registration of August 14 was merely a change of party.  He was registered prior to that, so his vote is valid.
4300  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re:Runoff Election to be held in District 4 on: August 23, 2004, 09:44:06 pm
Is this open only to those 16 who voted last week, or to any D4 resident [ie, nclib]?

Open to all District 4 residents who were eligible to vote in District 4 this last weekend.
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