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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Strange Oklahoma map on: April 01, 2014, 03:07:31 am
Perhaps Edwards was more active in the Tulsa/Ada TV markets and Clark was more active in the Oklahoma City/Lawton TV markets.

Here's the map: http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/oklahoma.gif

Clark had an obvious win in Lawton with Fort Sill Army Base. But the big difference between East and West might just be a matter of which TV station was their local market.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA-05 Special Election: Riser rising on: November 12, 2013, 03:24:07 pm
the last time Ds settled an R v. R special election primary to elect the "more moderate" Republican, we got Paul Broun over Jim Whitehead.

Oops


IIRC, Dems didn't vote for Broun because he was more moderate. He was chosen because Whitehead insulted Athens in some way (I think he made a dumb comment about UGA) and Athens Democrats responded by voting for his opponent, Broun.

there was that, but there definitely wasn't some perception that Broun was decidedly more conservative than Whitehead, which he probably is. Whitehead probably wouldn't be near as embarrassing as Broun
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA-05 Special Election: Riser rising on: November 12, 2013, 12:39:01 am
the last time Ds settled an R v. R special election primary to elect the "more moderate" Republican, we got Paul Broun over Jim Whitehead.

Oops

Well, there was Boustany/Landry but I guess the map was too skewed in Boustany's favor.

yeah, if we're comparing this to Broun/Whitehead, neither Broun or McAllister had been elected to anything (but Broun had tried) while Riser/Whitehead were state legislators and preemptive favorites
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA-05 Special Election: Riser rising on: November 12, 2013, 12:04:18 am
the last time Ds settled an R v. R special election primary to elect the "more moderate" Republican, we got Paul Broun over Jim Whitehead.

Oops
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Boston Mayor: Tom Menino Retiring on: April 01, 2013, 06:53:21 pm
and for reference, the blowout November 1993 runoff:

6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Boston Mayor: Tom Menino Retiring on: March 29, 2013, 01:32:55 pm
1983 was a bit more polarized



citywide: Flynn 29, King 29, Finnegan 25, DiCara 10, Kearney 7 - http://www.archive.org/stream/annualreportofbo1983bost#page/28/mode/2up

Flynn wards:
Ward 2: Flynn 43, Finnegan 23, DiCara 23, King 5
Ward 6: Flynn 70, Finnegan 21
Ward 7: Flynn 69, Finnegan 19
Ward 13: Flynn 35, King 29, Finnegan 25, DiCara 5
Ward 18: Flynn 31, Finnegan 29, King 24, DiCara 10
Ward 19: Flynn 31, Finnegan 28, King 24, DiCara 11

King wards:
Ward 4: King 55, Flynn 14, DiCara 14, Finnegan 13
Ward 5: King 33, DiCara 25, Finnegan 22, Flynn 15
Ward 8: King 75, Finnegan 12, Flynn 8
Ward 9: King 86, Finnegan 7
Ward 10: King 49, Finnegan 20, Flynn 20, DiCara 6, Kearney 5
Ward 11: King 59, Finnegan 16, Flynn 16
Ward 12: King 95
Ward 14: King 95
Ward 15: King 37, Finnegan 26, King 25, DiCara 5
Ward 17: King 47, Flynn 20, Finnegan 19, DiCara 10
Ward 21: King 35, Flynn 26, Finnegan 23, DiCara 10

Finnegan wards:
Ward 3: Finnegan 25, DiCara 21, Flynn 21, King 18, Langone 8, Kearney 6
Ward 16: Finnegan 43, Flynn 38, DiCara 9
Ward 20: Finnegan 43, Flynn 34, DiCara 11, Kearney 6
Ward 22: Finnegan 31, Flynn 31, King 18, DiCara 10, Kearney 9

Kearney ward:
Ward 1: Kearney 33, Finnegan 25, Flynn 21, DiCara 10, Langone 5, King 5

and the runoff!



Citywide: Flynn 65, King 35 - http://www.archive.org/stream/annualreportofbo1983bost#page/82/mode/2up

Ward 1: Flynn 90/10
Ward 2: Flynn 89/11 (5709-693)
Ward 3: Flynn 70/30
Ward 4: King 68/32
Ward 5: King 52/48
Ward 6: Flynn 97/3 (7752-221)
Ward 7: Flynn 95/5 (9539-451)
Ward 8: King 82/18 (2244-503)
Ward 9: King 91/9 (4279-403)
Ward 10: King 56/44
Ward 11: King 64/36
Ward 12: King 97/3 (5978-198)
Ward 13: Flynn 67/33
Ward 14: King 98/2 (7918-195)
Ward 15: Flynn 57/43
Ward 16: Flynn 92/8 (10941-902)
Ward 17: King 52/48
Ward 18: Flynn 73/27
Ward 19: Flynn 69/31
Ward 20: Flynn 92/8
Ward 21: Flynn 54/46
Ward 22: Flynn 75/25
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Boston Mayor: Tom Menino Retiring on: March 29, 2013, 01:07:23 am
Kinda random, but some of these trends might some up if the right field emerges. And some of this stuff changed in the last 20yrs

a Ward map for the 1993 primary (Boston Wards are more historical than anything and I don't think the boundaries have changed in decades):



Menino
Ward 1: Menino 40, Rufo 25, Salerno 15, Brett 13
Ward 2: Menino 26, Brett 24, Rufo 24, Salerno 16
Ward 3: Menino 29, Salerno 27, Rufo 25, Brett 10
Ward 18: Menino 53, Brett 14, Rufo 13, Salerno 9, Bolling 7
Ward 20: Menino 35, Brett 23, Rufo 22, Salerno 11

Brett
Ward 6: Brett 40, Menino 25, Rufo 17, Roache 8, Salerno 6
Ward 7: Brett 45, Menino 21, Rufo 18, Roache 6, Salerno 6
Ward 13: Brett 57, Salerno 12, Menino 12, Rufo 10
Ward 15: Brett 39, Menino 16, Salerno 16, Rufo 12, Bolling 11
Ward 16: Brett 58, Menino 15, Rufo 11, Salerno 8
Ward 17: Brett 30, Salerno 18, Menino 16, Rufo 15

Rufo
Ward 21: Rufo 35, Salerno 30, Menino 16, Brett 8
Ward 22: Rufo 57, Salerno 15, Menino 12, Brett 11

Salerno
Ward 4: Salerno 46, Rufo 19, Menino 12, Bolling 9, Brett 7
Ward 5: Salerno 38, Rufo 25, Menino 16, Lydon 9, Brett 7
Ward 9: Salerno 29, Bolling 23, Menino 19, Rufo 14, Brett 10
Ward 10: Salerno 28, Menino 21, Rufo 21, Brett 13, Bolling 9
Ward 11: Salerno 32, Menino 22, Bolling 16, Rufo 13, Brett 14
Ward 19: Salerno 35, Menino 29, Brett 14, Rufo 13

Bolling:
Ward 8: Bolling 24, Menino 22, Salerno 20, Brett 14, Rufo 12
Ward 12: Bolling 46, Menino 19, Salerno 13, Rufo 9, Brett 9
Ward 14: Bolling 42, Menino 21, Salerno 13, Rufo 11, Brett 9

Source: http://archive.org/stream/annualreportofbo1993bost#page/30/mode/2up
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Southeastern Utah on: January 07, 2013, 02:46:50 am
Grand County, 2012:
Soren Simonsen 49%, Obama 44%

San Juan County, 2012:
Simonsen 40.5%, Obama 40.3%

So a SLC city councilman who lost UT3 by 55% did run ahead of Obama in some random locales.

considering the Chaffetz result in Utah County (86%!), they screwed up when they put too much of Salt Lake in UT4. If they put more of Utah County in UT4, then Mia Love is in Congress now
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Meanwhile in Southern West Virginia on: January 07, 2013, 02:37:20 am
Comparing the Rahall and Tomblin maps, it seems Rahall did worse in the heart of Southern West Virginia but better along the districts northeastern and northwestern edges?

Well, Snuffer was from Raliegh County, so I guess it made sense that he overperformed in the core area while Rahall had 3 decades plus of name rec to fall back on in the peripheral counties.

Rahall percentages, Raleigh county/districtwide (county home of opponent)

2012: 41% / 54% (Raleigh)
2010: 48% / 56% (Mingo)
2008: 60% / 67% (Mercer)
2006: 66% / 69% (Cabell)
2004: 49% / 65% (Raleigh)
2002: 58% / 70% (Logan)
1998/2000: Rahall only opposed by a Libertarian
1996: Rahall unopposed
1994: 60% / 64% (Monroe)
1992: 62% / 66% (Monroe)
1990: 48% / 52% (Mercer)
1988: 52% / 61% (Mercer)
1986: 69% / 71% (Raleigh)
1984: 63% / 67% (Raleigh)
1982: 85% / 81% (Cabell)

So it takes going back to 1982 to find a time that Rahall did better in Raleigh v. a Republican than he fared in the district.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rep. Massie introduces repeal of Federal "Gun free" School Zones Act on: January 04, 2013, 08:18:28 pm
good to see someone will carry the Ron Paul legislative docket now

and if people taking guns into gun free zones means we should repeal GFZs, people breaking the speed limit means we should repeal speed limits, right?
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Ancestry and political attitudes on: January 01, 2013, 10:29:09 pm
Isn't Gasconade County, MO the county of reference for solidly Republican German counties? It was the only county in MO (besides St. Louis iirc) to vote for Lincoln in 1860 iirc.

Yes, although Gasconade is more German Protestant than German Catholic
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Ancestry and political attitudes on: January 01, 2013, 09:34:15 pm
I've wondered about this for a long time as well. The area in which I live in Southeast Missouri is predominantly of German American heritage. In my county alone, there is a tiny community of Dutch-German Catholics and this is one of the most staunchly Republican precincts in the county. The "town's" baseball field is littered in pro-life banners.

Osage County, Missouri is also strongly Republican and heavily of German American lineage; in fact, I think they even have some of their street signs in Germanic names. This is a part of the state that is included in the Missouri Rhineland.

Osage County wasn't swept by Republicans this year, they voted for Koster for AG.

And Osage County was one of the few non-confederate counties to vote for Kennedy and Goldwater, also mainly due to German Catholics.

So your area would be Perry County, or somewhere in the vicinity?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Maine. on: December 31, 2012, 01:14:38 am
1) Paul LePage and the Ds were pushing hard to win the state house and senate
2) angry Ron Paul activists
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why were college towns so Republican before the 70's? on: December 27, 2012, 05:54:31 pm
"Why were college towns so Republican before the 70's?"

because half/nearly-half of the students in the colleges couldn't vote until 1972
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Kiryas Joel swings D because Romney is too pro-Israel on: December 26, 2012, 06:30:10 pm
Quote
The Satmar Rebbe, Reb Aaron Teitelbaum also referred to the outcome of the 2012 U.S. election  saying: "There were elections held now in the United States. For the first time in history, 'This Brat' -  Israeli Prime Minister committed an undiplomatic and dangerous move when he supported the candidate running against the President (Mitt Romney). Imagine what would happen to us if, God forbid, he [Obama] would have lost the election. There's a well known phrase 'Esau hates Jacob' [Genesis 27:41],  in that event supporters of the president would of  expressed [poured] their anger over the Jews in the United States. "

"How dare he [Netanyahu] take upon himself the consequences and the the bloodshed that would of  come out of it," the Rebbe asked, "to place at risk the lives of thousands of Jews."

"Thank G-d," the Rebbe continued, "The President remained in power, and Jewish blood was not spilled by that 'low life' (ליידיג גייער in Yiddish) - that thinks Jews are not worth anything," the Rebbe concluded his indictment of the Prime Minister.

http://bibireport.blogspot.com/2012/12/satmar-rabb-calls-netanyahui-brat-for.html
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Kiryas Joel swings D because Romney is too pro-Israel on: December 26, 2012, 06:12:50 pm
Kiryas Joel has factionalism. And just as last time, the eternal minority faction voted for Obama. If their result was marginally stronger than last time, I would wager a guess the reasons have to do with KJ politics and nothing whatsoever with national politics or views on Israel.

The 2008 results from KJ were 2757-199 for McCain. So marginal increase.

(the precincts tabulated: 9, 10, 14, 15, 16, 17, 20, 22, 27, 28, 29, 31)

McCain won 1460 votes on the Independence line and 1141 on the Republican line. 712 blank votes were cast.
17  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Did I do something wrong or is the fill-in broken? on: December 25, 2012, 10:00:31 pm
thanks, suspecting that it was the "tab space tab" for blank spaces created by transferring the numbers off the spreadsheet was messing with the input.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Kiryas Joel swings D because Romney is too pro-Israel on: December 25, 2012, 09:31:02 pm
Orange County, NY cast 2871 blank ballots for President, 1943 in Monroe township.

11 precincts in Monroe cast more than 100 blank ballots.

Those precincts: 9, 10, 15, 16, 17, 20, 22, 27, 28, 29, and 31.

The results from those precincts

Romney 1872 (56%), Obama 1406 (42%), Goode 51, Stein 7, Johnson 5, Lindsay 2. Blank 1868

The only KJ precinct not listed, Precinct 14, where Romney won 40-31 with 26 blanks

Gillibrand 4770 (96%), Long 149 (4%), Clark 3, Edes 3, Mangelli 2. Blank 269

And told to the NY Post:

Quote
Mitt Romney’s support for Israel — compared to President Obama’s perceived weaker pledge of allegiance — spurred an Orthodox Jewish but anti-Israel enclave upstate to vote for the incumbent, sources said.

“We were unofficially told to vote for Obama because Romney is pro-Israel,” a resident told The Post.

The counterintuitive voting pattern in the village of Kiryas Joel is a result of beliefs held by the some in the Satmar sect that Jews are supposed to remain in exile until the arrival of the messiah.

So, that's a unique motivator.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Upstate NY swing D? on: December 21, 2012, 06:59:44 pm
Fanatical fans of John McHugh
20  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Did I do something wrong or is the fill-in broken? on: December 20, 2012, 10:56:35 pm
MO Lt. Gov: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=29&elect=0&off=6&year=2012
MO Sos: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=29&elect=0&off=7&year=2012

Both with totals but the county maps are blank

The lines I get when I try to 'update' the totals by adding the file

Quote
replace into DataC values (201200729000, 2012, 0, 7, 29, "Missouri", 2, 0, 2655483, 1,2,0,3,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, 39085, 1298022,1258937,0,70814,27710,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,201200729)County data over-written
State data over-written
Old Map Data Deleted
Contribution date and time updated
Election Status updated: Official
select count(*) as wins from DataC where id > 201200729000 and id < 201200730000 and rank1=1Map data entered

Quote
replace into DataC values (201200629000, 2012, 0, 6, 29, "Missouri", 2, 0, 2678313, 2,1,0,3,4,0,0,0,0,5,0,0,0,0,0, 100290, 1219457,1319747,0,75169,63594,0,0,0,0,346,0,0,0,0,0,201200629)County data over-written
State data over-written
Old Map Data Deleted
Contribution date and time updated
Election Status updated: Official
select count(*) as wins from DataC where id > 201200629000 and id < 201200630000 and rank1=1Map data entered
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Illinois 1981 remap on: December 08, 2012, 05:19:07 am
On a 2-1 vote, The Judges approved a map drafted by Michael Madigan instead of drawing their own map.

Porter was paired with Yates and Porter said he'd run in the same district as McClory (who stepped aside).
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Kansas to engage in redistricting on: December 08, 2012, 05:03:46 am
Although redrawing the lines could have the added effect of solidifying any endangered incumbent Republicans in Johnson County, Shawnee County, Wichita, or wherever else.

Or they'll try purging each other again.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Realisticidealist's 2012 Precinct Map Thread on: December 07, 2012, 07:35:50 pm
Belmont is in Middlesex County, MA

Obama won Belmont by a 31% margin
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Alaska Results Map by House District on: December 05, 2012, 09:17:48 pm
Quote
Census results for Kodiak and the Aleutians should be treated with the utmost caution. They include a transient, mostly Filipino population present only for salmon canning season.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Alaska Results Map by House District on: December 04, 2012, 09:04:50 pm
Places listed in Aleutians East

Akutan: Obama 52, Romney 22 (24% White, 16% Native)
Cold Bay: Romney 30, Obama 1 (72% White, 17% Native)
King Cove: Romney 67, Obama 56 (47% Native, 15% White)
Sand Point: Romney 95, Obama 71 (42% Native, 28% White)

I believe he covered the Asian aspect of the Aleutians too
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