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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place on: November 30, 2016, 01:12:56 am
some third place precinct finishes I found in New Mexico

Johnson finished ahead of Trump in quite a few precincts. Seemingly a lot of reservation/pueblo precincts.

Trump finished 4th in Precinct 6 in Santa Fe County (Clinton 100, Johnson 17, Stein 7, Trump 3)

Evan McMullin's best county was Los Alamos County, and he finished in the 4% range in a few Los Alamos precincts
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: November 29, 2016, 09:48:26 pm
for Trump:



overall: Trump 411, Clinton 127

Clinton's EVs: DC 3, IL 11, CA 50, NY 34, HI 4, VT 3, MA 11, CT 7, RI 4.

She won every state by at least 11%

Clinton got 45%+ and lost the following:

ME (6): 49/45 T
OH (18): 50/45 T
GA: untouched
CO (10): 46/46 (C lost by 12K)
MN (10): 46/46 (C lost by 25K)
WI (16): 48/46 T
VA (12): 49/47 T
NH (4): 48/47 T
NC: untouched
NJ (16): 50/47 T
DE (4): 48/47 T
AZ (17): 48/47 T
MI: untouched
MD (7): 48/48 (C lost by 2500)
FL. untouched
PA (16): 48/48 (C lost by 6K)

WA is 48/44 T, NV is 50/44 T, NM is 47/44 T, OR is 51/42 T

for Clinton:



overall: Clinton 438, Trump 100

I partitioned Wyoming and unified the Dakotas. I put states in Southern CA and the Tampa/Orlando corridor.

the closest states are PA, SC, TX, NH, VA, IA, AZ, OH, FL (Miami to Tallahassee), WI, NC, MI, FL 2 (Tampa/Orlando), CO, MO, ME, LA, NM.

Hillary is between 20% and 38% in 14 states and between 46%-50% in 21 states. She wins every state with 10+ electoral votes aside from Super-TN, Super-AR, and Super-OK.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place on: November 29, 2016, 03:11:13 pm
Trump finished third in PR06. McMullin 167, Clinton 135, Trump 109.

Looking at the map and JusticeMap, there is a large block that has 400+ people and is 70%+ Hispanic that probably boosted Clinton's numbers enough to get her in second place there.

McMullin got around 50% in the Provo precincts around the BYU Campus.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place on: November 28, 2016, 04:33:14 pm
Castle was the first listed name on the ballots in Alaska. But that seems like way too much support for just being listed first.

The precincts in 38/39 were Yupik areas, and Kobuk/Point Lay are Inupiaq. Hughes is Athabascan.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place on: November 28, 2016, 03:45:04 pm
Combing through Salt Lake County precinct results

Out of 829 precincts.. McMullin finished ahead of Clinton in 118 precincts and ahead of Trump in 26 precincts.

McMullin won 9 precincts, mostly very small precincts. He did carry SJD030 in South Jordan (McMullin 390, Trump 350, Clinton 326)

Trump finished third in several large Salt Lake City precincts..

SLC030: Clinton 516, McMullin 59, Trump 53
SLC040: Clinton 315, McMullin 54, Trump 52
SLC080: Clinton 497, McMullin 329, Trump 192
SLC109: Clinton 574, McMullin 69, Trump 63
SLC117: Clinton 422, McMullin 86, Trump 67
SLC129: Clinton 361, McMullin 94, Trump 67
SLC130: Clinton 423, McMullin 132, Trump 130
SLC131: Clinton 387, McMullin 93, Trump 89
SLC132: Clinton 487, McMullin 142, Trump 139
SLC158: Clinton 301, McMullin 84, Trump 71

Clinton won the SLC precincts by a 66/16 margin (50832-12567). Trump carried the rest of the county by 465 votes (125476-125011).

McMullin finished 2nd and Clinton finished 3rd in several large precincts in Bluffdale, Draper, Herriman, Riverton, South Jordan and West Jordan. All communities south of Salt Lake City around Interstate 15.

Herriman had one small precinct where McMullin topped 40% (and lost) which was one of McMullin's best precincts and Clinton's worst precincts, and one small precinct where Johnson topped 11% (and Clinton won with 38%).
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place on: November 28, 2016, 02:16:23 am
Carbon County is a Coal County that has one of the lower LDS adherence rates in the state of Utah

Piute County was one of Trump's better counties in the Caucuses. It's also the second smallest county in the state.

As for third place finishes

NYC AD 70/ED 4 (Keith Wright/Inez Dickens, Harlem-area): Clinton 640, Stein 16, Trump 8, Johnson 4

And in the entirety of AD 56 (Bed-Stuy, Annette Robinson), Trump won 877 votes on the unofficial count and Stein won 814.

Looking at the NYC results map, ED 4 in AD 70 is located in-between Adam Clayton Powell Blvd and Lenox from 112th to 114th. St. Nicholas Ave is also part of the border of the precinct/election district. Google Maps says there is a Vegan restaurant in the election district.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place on: November 27, 2016, 03:23:04 pm
Ithaca 5-2: Clinton 613, Stein 44, Trump 38, Johnson 11

http://tompkinscountyny.gov/files/boe/Additional_Information/Past_Results_files/2016/General_Election/Results_per_ED_2016_11_08T23_17_43_To%20HTML.HTML

Sioux County ND (Standing Rock):

Cannonball: CLINTON 138, STEIN 33, TRUMP 18
FY East: CLINTON 261, STEIN 35, TRUMP 23
FY West:  CLINTON 235, STEIN 36, TRUMP 27

Oglala Lakota County SD (formerly Shannon), Manderson precinct: Clinton 157, Johnson 10, Trump 7, Castle 5.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place on: November 27, 2016, 03:01:59 pm
Fremont WA/Amherst MA/Cambridge MA. In all of these I suspect we'll find place where trump finished 3rdmm3rd

Amherst, precinct 9: Clinton 1382, Stein 91, Trump 79, Johnson 48

http://www.amherstma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/36679

Cambridge, ward 2/precinct 2: Clinton 433, Johnson 27, Trump 19, Stein 10, McMullin (write-in) 10

Cambridge, ward 8/precinct 3: Clinton 426, Johnson 15, Trump 11, Stein 6

https://www.cambridgema.gov/~/media/76C861E82C3E47898930ABDF09792DB0.ashx

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place on: November 26, 2016, 10:15:15 pm
and there's a strong possibility that write-ins for Sanders beat Trump in those precincts.

Looking at Idaho results. Clinton finished 4th in one Madison County (Rexburg) precinct (Porter Park). Trump 201/McMullin 176/Johnson 30/Clinton 25.

Johnson finished ahead of Clinton in 3 other Idaho precincts. In one of those precincts Clinton got 0 votes and Darrell Castle got one vote.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / County or Precincts where Trump or Clinton finished in third place on: November 26, 2016, 05:08:16 pm
Clinton finished in 3rd in:

6 Idaho and 14 Utah Counties (behind McMullin)

Mohave County AZ Precinct 5 - North Canyon (Colorado City, AZ): Trump 781, Johnson 96, Clinton 26 (Same precinct gave more votes to Green Party candidate Gary Swing than Ann Kirkpatrick)

Trump finished 3rd in:

Chicago Ward 6/Precinct 2 (Clinton 489, Stein 7, Johnson 4, Trump 3)
Chicago Ward 6/Precinct 26 (Clinton 443, Johnson 6, Stein 6, Trump 3) - Stein finished ahead of Trump in 6 other Ward 6 precincts and Johnson in another Ward 6 precinct
Madison WI Ward 42 (Clinton 2257, Stein 74, Trump 57)

Probably a lot more in a mix of majority LDS areas and ultra-Dem urban areas/college campuses.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 21, 2016, 07:54:08 pm
495 votes.

For President: Trump 49.6%, Clinton 41.3%, Johnson 5.5%, Stein 2.8%, Castle 0.2%

For Senate: Kander (Dem) 54.3%, Blunt (Rep) 37.5%, Dine (Libertarian) 3.9%, McFarland (Green) 2.05%, Ryman (Constitution) 1.8%.

So, around 12% of the voters voted Trump for President and Kander for Senate.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis: Clinton +7 in MI, +2 in CO on: July 14, 2016, 04:30:48 pm
Also why the hell in Michigan do they give "other" as a choice when they also ask about Johnson/Stein?

can't snub the US Taxpayers (Darrell Castle) and Natural Law (somebody) candidates.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) on: April 19, 2016, 11:04:23 pm
Results from Hasidic strongholds

New Square
55/98: Clinton 489, Sanders 3 / Kasich 197, Cruz 34, Carson (!!!) 12, Trump 11
58/95/109: Clinton 325, Sanders 2 / Kasich 153, Cruz 26, Trump 10, Carson 3.

totals: Clinton 814, Sanders 5 / Kasich 350, Cruz 60, Trump 21, Carson 15.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: April 01, 2016, 02:03:04 pm
guessing the color shades change dramatically if you go by total vote.

Louisiana SOS says the Dem electorate was 53% Black/44% White. 28% turnout for AA voters and 20% turnout for white voters.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: March 31, 2016, 06:46:43 pm
the differences in vote totals from one house district to another kinda makes it harder to take the caucus system seriously.

District 34: 10455 votes on 11/6/2012, 68% turnout. 8110 votes in the August 2014 primary, 53% turnout. 493 votes cast in the caucus. Carried by Obama 7589-2694.

District 7: 9218 votes on 11/6/2012, 61% turnout. 5114 votes in the August 2014 primary, 35% turnout. 1241 votes cast in the caucus. Carried by Obama 6640-2553.

I'd think that the more urbanized a district was, the lower the turnout was for the Caucuses. Which would be the opposite of expectation considering travel time.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: March 31, 2016, 04:44:59 pm
Looks like County data is now available on the Dem. side in Hawaii:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/hawaii


Nobody voted in that county with 91 people?

"Because of the small population, Kalawao County does not have the functions of other Hawaii counties. It is a judicial district of Maui County, which includes the rest of the island of Molokaʻi. The county has no elected government. Developed and used from 1866 to 1969 for settlements for treatment of quarantined persons with leprosy, it is administered by the Hawaii Department of Health. The only county statutes that apply to Kalawao County directly are those on matters of health"

So you're saying that people in Kalawao can vote, they just cast their ballots under Maui?

It appears Clinton won the Kalawao precinct (13-9) by a margin of 2 votes to 1 vote.

BTW, there's precinct results for the Hawaii Dem vote. I think realisticidealist might need to doublecheck the shapefiles for HI house districts that he uses though.

http://hawaiidemocrats.org/2016_ppp_results/

No precinct results from Niihau though.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: March 30, 2016, 07:33:39 pm
Looks like County data is now available on the Dem. side in Hawaii:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/hawaii


Nobody voted in that county with 91 people?

"Because of the small population, Kalawao County does not have the functions of other Hawaii counties. It is a judicial district of Maui County, which includes the rest of the island of Molokaʻi. The county has no elected government. Developed and used from 1866 to 1969 for settlements for treatment of quarantined persons with leprosy, it is administered by the Hawaii Department of Health. The only county statutes that apply to Kalawao County directly are those on matters of health"
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Utah-Y2 Analytics Poll: Cruz +24 on: March 20, 2016, 01:40:14 am
Kasich seems like he'd have his appeal to the more mainline type of conservative. Although Kasich and Cruz really differ more on tone than actual views.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Utah-Y2 Analytics Poll: Cruz +24 on: March 19, 2016, 10:27:38 pm
Buzzfeed's correspondent on Mormon Things McKay Coppins put out a column on Trump and Mormons tonight.

Mormon Voters Really Donít Like Donald Trump. Hereís Why.

The issues include Immigration and being too anti-Muslim.

Also..

Quote
"Trump is off-putting to Mormons for more predictable reasons as well. His blatant religious illiteracy, his penchant for onstage cursing, his habit of flinging crude insults at women, his less-than-virtuous personal life, and widely chronicled marital failures ó all of this is anathema to the wholesome, family-first lifestyle that Mormonism promotes. And demographically speaking, Mormons tend to reside outside Trumpís base of support anyway. They have higher-than-average education levels, whereas Trump does best among voters without any college education; they are more likely to be weekly churchgoers, while Trump performs better with Christians who donít or infrequently attend services."
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tom Coburn and Rick Perry discussed as potential third party Trump opponents on: March 19, 2016, 10:24:43 pm
I read this as "Tom Petty discussed as potential third party Trump opponent"

"Petty blasted for occasionally backing down in tough spots"
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tom Coburn and Rick Perry discussed as potential third party Trump opponents on: March 19, 2016, 09:56:18 pm
"Governor Perry, why are you putting your hand on my shoulder?"
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tom Coburn and Rick Perry discussed as potential third party Trump opponents on: March 19, 2016, 09:48:32 pm
New test for RW non-Trump independent candidates: "Is this a better idea than running Joe Lieberman as an Independent candidate?"
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Utah-Y2 Analytics Poll: Cruz +24 on: March 19, 2016, 09:40:35 pm
7% of the 2012 Romney vote going to a Dem puts the Dems at 30%, around a midpoint between Obama 08 and Obama 12.

The Mormon swing to Romney almost certainly swings back Dem a little.

a Trump, Hillary, other poll for Utah seems like it'd be a total mess at the moment.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Kalwejt's 2016 comparative maps on: March 18, 2016, 07:07:04 pm
a map of where the Non-Clinton/Bernie vote topped 5/10% would be "fun" too
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: March 17, 2016, 08:54:34 pm
extra datapoint for the Dem side: Sanders carried the Holy Cross campus (prec 6-4) 146-79 and Clark University (prec 8-3) 253-96. But Clinton won Worcester.

On the Rep side: Kasich carried Wellesley and Babson. Trump/Rubio tied at Smith. Trump carried Mount Holyoke. Rubio carried the MIT/Harvard precincts on his way to losing Cambridge. Trump carried Holy Cross with 32 of 75 votes and Clark U with 7 of 21 votes.

"College areas carried by Trump in the R Primary" seems like it'd be a fascinating list.
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