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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DWS: superdelegates exist to stop grassroot activists on: February 12, 2016, 11:40:08 pm
This is... literally true. What's the issue?

everything DWS says is bad.. so this is bad. Duh. Being the DNC chair is basically a thankless job unless you're a Howard Dean who has a base of support from non-elected officials.

In a literal sense, there's some merit to what she says. I've been in the room when delegates were elected to the DNC. That election involved picking quite a few people that are not going to run for any elective office ever telling you how much they did in the last election. As a delegate to a convention that nominated DNC delegates, I even got take an occasional phone call or mailer/letter from a candidate trying to increase visibility for a bid to go to the DNC. Some groups had "slates", that I pretty much totally ignored before casting my votes.

Let's just say that unpledged PLEOs (Superdelegates) didn't exist. Then that'd mean that they'd probably get into conventions as pledged delegates anyways and there'd be media/activist complaints about the convention having too many elected officials and not enough random activists.

Superdelegates are not likely to be the House of Lords. It's one of those quirky lil honorifics that'd exist in another form without the Superdelegate setup.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nevada Democratic Caucus Result on: February 12, 2016, 05:41:25 am
Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4



How?

Rubio lived in Nevada for 6 years as a child. So, if he's gonna do well anywhere this month, it should be Nevada.

That being said, Overtime probably isn't real.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: North Carolina on: February 05, 2016, 08:01:10 pm
I'd think an all-Meck 12th and Durham out of the 1st means that the Dragon 4th is done, impacting the 2nd. And the 9th becomes a district from the Charlotte suburbs to Winston-Salem/Greensboro. Meaning a 9th that is shaped like the 12th, only majority white.

Also, no Senate seat is up in 2018 (so far), so anybody drawn out isn't running for something in 2018. Assuming they don't try making this effective in 2016.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: North Carolina on: February 05, 2016, 07:37:44 pm
Federal Judge has struck down the 1st and 12th districts as racial gerrymanders.

So... here's a quick attempt at 1st/12th districts.

The districts bordering the 1st: 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 13th

The districts bordering the 12th: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th

Districts bordering neither district and not touched: 11th

General plan:

Tidy up the first district to be a bit more compact.
Drop Winston-Salem from the 12th and replace it with some parts of Mecklenberg.
Other changes to level it out.

Statewide:



1st: 48.5 AA/40.6 W (47 AA-44 W VAP), Obama 67-McCain 33, D 69/R 31. 733385 people


2nd: 66 W/16 AA/11 H, McCain 56-Obama 43, R 56/D 44. 733943 people


3rd: 69 W/20 AA, McCain 57-Obama 42, R 55/D 45. 733037 people


4th: 48 W/32 AA/12 H, Obama 72-McCain 27, D 68.5/R 31.5. 732955 people


5th: 73.5 W/15 AA, McCain 55-Obama 44, R 56/D 44. 733691 people


6th: 76 W/15 AA, McCain 55.5-Obama 43, R 56/D 44. 734319 people


7th: 68 W/19 AA, McCain 55-Obama 44.5, R 52/D 48. 733285 people


8th: 64 W/18 AA, McCain 58-Obama 41, R 56.5/D 43.5. 733602 people


9th: 75 W/12 AA, McCain 55-Obama 44, R 60/D 40. 732894 people


10th: 79 W/12 AA, McCain 56-Obama 43, R 56/D 44. 734415 people

11th: 88 W. McCain 58-Obama 40, R 58/D 42. 732689 people


12th: 48 AA/31 W/14 H (46.5/35 VAP). Obama 76-McCain 23. D 72/R 28. 734004 people


13th: 69 W/18 AA. McCain 53-Obama 46, R 55/D 45. 733264 people

That's just the quick map. I don't think a re-map is gonna touch 2 or 4, even as a tidy-up.

Not sure if the criteria is gonna kick Durham out of NC-1, or just kill the NC-12 bacon-strip concept like the changes in Virginia.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results on: February 01, 2016, 04:07:02 pm
Hillary 52, Bernie 47, other 1

Trump 27, Cruz 23, Rubio 18, Carson 13, Paul 10, others 9
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Google search Iowa candidate county maps on: February 01, 2016, 04:04:45 pm
Probably a link between immigration being a searched-for issue and the O'Malley searches?

although I did have to search to make sure Storm Lake wasn't in Crawford County (it isn't)
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What TV Network Will You be watching for the caucuses on: January 31, 2016, 10:24:52 pm
I don't like watching cable TV election coverage. Probably gonna use Twitter and look at some results pages.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: George Wallace support outside the south on: January 31, 2016, 09:17:50 pm
Wards 6/7 also gave Louise Day Hicks 70%+ in 1967.

Wallace also got nearly 17% in Wyandotte County, KS. Presumably for reasons that led to white flight later on in the 70s.

Same reasons as Wallace getting 15-20% in Cook County, IL townships (Stickney, Thornton, Worth) or his 18% in Cicero.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Chicago and Cook Co. in 2012 on: January 30, 2016, 10:50:51 pm
Don't know if they have results that far back, but '84 and '88 would be interesting to see as well.

I agree, although they do not have them readily available. I may be eager enough to send them an email just to see if there is any way of accessing them, though, because it would be really cool to compare.

1984: https://archive.org/stream/officialvote84illi#page/10/mode/2up

1988: https://archive.org/stream/officialvoteofst1988illi#page/172/mode/2up
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3 on: January 30, 2016, 09:58:59 pm
there's also not an infinite number of first time voters. It'd be a nice split to see how many 2016 voters are first-timers from 2008.

I'd guess virtually everybody 25 or younger (born in 1991 or after) is going to be first time for the Dems, unless somebody caucused for the uncontested Obama candidacy as their first time in 2012. That universe seems to be kinda lower than you'd think.

But then again, an age breakdown of the 60% first timers in 2008 seems helpful here and idk if that got split by the surveys.
Eh, there might be some Paul 2012 first timers switching to Sanders.  But yeah, you make a good point that many of the 2008 first timers are going to be voting again.

yeah, I wasn't counting 2012 Republican caucusers. I'd think that number is gonna be pretty low. Those voters are probably gonna have to get used to the differences between D and R caucuses.

comparing the 2 Selzer polls, it moved from 42/40 Clinton to 45/42 Clinton. Kinda suggesting that there might be a ceiling on the PV support for Sanders. Considering the IA Dem Caucuses aren't a PV contest, there's a potential that Bernie gets 40%+ in a bunch of places that he loses. Topping out in the mid-50s or such in Johnson Co (where the non-IC vote is gonna cancel out parts of the IC vote)
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3 on: January 30, 2016, 09:06:04 pm
there's also not an infinite number of first time voters. It'd be a nice split to see how many 2016 voters are first-timers from 2008.

I'd guess virtually everybody 25 or younger (born in 1991 or after) is going to be first time for the Dems, unless somebody caucused for the uncontested Obama candidacy as their first time in 2012. That universe seems to be kinda lower than you'd think.

But then again, an age breakdown of the 60% first timers in 2008 seems helpful here and idk if that got split by the surveys.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Weather.com Poll: IA Trump up 11, Clinton up 12 NH:Trump up 16, Sanders up 3 on: January 30, 2016, 08:29:02 pm
wouldn't mind seeing a PDF to see if TWC farmed it out to some firm or if they actually have an in-house polling firm.

Also, 36% not caucusing due to a tornado seems sorta low. How was that question asked?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3 on: January 30, 2016, 08:14:18 pm
does anybody really have any sort of gauge on likely results out of Des Moines?

It seems like the only parts of Iowa with a lot of African-American voters are in Des Moines, Waterloo and some in Davenport. So, that'll diverge from the numbers for Obama in 2008.

As for the R side... Trump's looking like a solid pick, unless the non-Trump voters can stomach voting for Cruz.

If Rubio was already in 2nd, he'd have a chance.. but having Cruz 2nd to Trump is one hell of a buffer for Trump.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA: 1972 Senatorial General Election Result on: December 23, 2015, 03:20:25 am
Wow, Taliafero is 100% Nunn.

and that's not an error in our entry. Taliferro doesn't list a vote total for Thompson in the official document (the 1971/72 Georgia Official and Statistical Register)
15  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Kansas Election on: December 21, 2015, 02:02:43 am
could this help you out there? http://cdm16884.contentdm.oclc.org/ui/custom/default/collection/default/resources/custompages/G_Pages/Election%20Statistics.php
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: August 05, 2015, 01:50:09 pm


We got an official plan concept!
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: July 16, 2015, 09:10:48 pm
That peninsula into Ocala will not pass the FL constitution. The wrap of FL-10 around FL-5 and the FL-5 finger into Sanford in the RL map have been cited by the court as failing tier-2 requirements. Can you justify it?

my thinking on the Ocala thing is like this: Splitting Ocala wouldn't be allowed.

Marion County is 331298 people, Ocala is 57468.

You take Marion County out of any district, then FL2 needs 35,707 people, FL3 needs 183,744 people and FL11 needs 111,882 people.

On reworking things, FL11/FL2 can get the people and FL3 can get Ocala.



So, that means..

FL2: 67.1/32.9 JMC. (77w/14aa/5h)
FL3: 54.3/45.7 JMC. (71w/15aa/9h)
FL11: 56.4/43.6 JMC (81w/10h/6aa)

compared to this from the "Gainesville in 3" map:

FL2: 67.1-32.9 JMC (78w-14aa-5h)
FL3: 54.6-45.4 JMC (72w-14aa-9h)
FL11: 55.9-44.1 JMC (79w-10h-7aa)
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: July 15, 2015, 02:03:57 pm
experimenting a little

Version B: Gainesville in FL5






FL1: 67.5-32.5 JMC (75w-14aa-5h)
FL2: 63.9-36.1 JMC (77w-14aa-5h)
FL3: 57.6-42.4 JMC (74w-12aa-9h)
FL4: 65.1-34.9 JMC (76w-10aa-7h)
FL5: 65.5-34.5 Obama (46aa-43w-6h)
FL6: 50.8-49.2 Obama (77w-10h-10aa)
FL7: 51.6-48.4 JMC (66w-18h-10aa)
FL8: 55.8-44.2 JMC (77w-9aa-9h)
FL9: 69.5-30.5 Obama (37h-32.5w-24aa)
FL10: 50.8-49.2 JMC (61w-18h-14aa)
FL11: 55.9-44.1 JMC (79w-10h-7aa)
FL12: 51.5-48.5 JMC (79w-11.5h)
FL13: 55.6-44.4 Obama (75w-11aa-8h)
FL14: 61.5-38.5 Obama (45w-29h-21aa)
FL15: 55.4-44.6 JMC (66w-18h-11aa)
FL16: 51.6-48.4 JMC (79.5w-11h-6aa)
FL17: 53.4-46.6 JMC (66w-22h-9aa)
FL18: 51.7-48.3 Obama (70w-14h-12aa)
FL19: 57.3-42.3 JMC (72w-18h-7aa)
FL20: 81.5-18.5 Obama (50aa-26w-19h)
FL21: 63-37 Obama (63w-21h-12aa)
FL22: 57.9-42.1 Obama (66w-18h-10.5aa)
FL23: 62.4-37.6 Obama (47w-38h-10aa)
FL24: 86.4-13.6 Obama (53.5aa-32h-11w)
FL25: 56-44 JMC (71h-21w-6aa)
FL26: 50.1-49.9 JMC (69h-20w-9aa)
FL27: 50.7-49.3 JMC (73h-18w-6aa)

Version A: No Gainesville in FL5



FL2: 67.1-32.9 JMC (78w-14aa-5h)
FL3: 54.6-45.4 JMC (72w-14aa-9h)
FL5: 64.7-35.3 Obama (44.5w-44.1aa-6.5h)
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: July 13, 2015, 05:41:39 pm
is it possible to get the Corrine seat compliant by just going Jacksonville to Tallahassee? or could they have to go into Gainesville to scoop some extra people?
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Where would Hawaii's third Congressional District be? on: December 09, 2014, 10:26:30 pm
when i've drawn 3 district Hawaii maps, i've done it like this. The 1st district is Honolulu/etc, 2nd district is Maui/Big Island/part of Honolulu and 3rd district is part of Honolulu and Kauai.

Or the Honolulu split in map form

21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: OurCampaigns on: November 11, 2014, 11:22:21 pm
if your account was created post-April 2013.. that might be a reason why your account isn't being recognized as existing
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: OurCampaigns on: September 15, 2014, 12:40:34 am
In a way, it's "back". But it's kind of an elephant graveyard.

The sheer amount of foolishness involved in how the site got yanked and is back up due to some sort of boredom from a certain person. And the database on OC now isn't even the database that existed when the site went down in June, so there's a bunch of 2014 stuff that isn't on there because it wasn't part of the site in April 2013.

Less said about some things with some people, the better. Some people matter less when you won't talk about them.

The database going to June 2014 is still around and will be part of a (still under-construction) http://www.electionsinfo.net/ The EI site is under coding construction at the moment since the current OC coding can't be taken over there due to wishes (back when it seemed like the OC site wouldn't be back in any form). At the risk of sounding like Walter White, the database that will be on EI should be deeper and better than the OC database. Hopefully the formatting and layout will be seen as better too. Anyways, EI will be around soonish, I don't know when, but this isn't exactly a no-deadline sort of thing from what i've heard.

Here's a template of a results page on EI: http://electionsinfo.net/elections23.php?electionID=491714 (the white text are things left to be done in assembling the page). So there's databases that are ready and some to be done.

But at least I can yoink the county results from an OC page with a map, do a few things in Notepad++, and get it in Election Atlas format to be posted on here.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Strange Oklahoma map on: April 01, 2014, 03:07:31 am
Perhaps Edwards was more active in the Tulsa/Ada TV markets and Clark was more active in the Oklahoma City/Lawton TV markets.

Here's the map: http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/oklahoma.gif

Clark had an obvious win in Lawton with Fort Sill Army Base. But the big difference between East and West might just be a matter of which TV station was their local market.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA-05 Special Election: Riser rising on: November 12, 2013, 03:24:07 pm
the last time Ds settled an R v. R special election primary to elect the "more moderate" Republican, we got Paul Broun over Jim Whitehead.

Oops


IIRC, Dems didn't vote for Broun because he was more moderate. He was chosen because Whitehead insulted Athens in some way (I think he made a dumb comment about UGA) and Athens Democrats responded by voting for his opponent, Broun.

there was that, but there definitely wasn't some perception that Broun was decidedly more conservative than Whitehead, which he probably is. Whitehead probably wouldn't be near as embarrassing as Broun
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA-05 Special Election: Riser rising on: November 12, 2013, 12:39:01 am
the last time Ds settled an R v. R special election primary to elect the "more moderate" Republican, we got Paul Broun over Jim Whitehead.

Oops

Well, there was Boustany/Landry but I guess the map was too skewed in Boustany's favor.

yeah, if we're comparing this to Broun/Whitehead, neither Broun or McAllister had been elected to anything (but Broun had tried) while Riser/Whitehead were state legislators and preemptive favorites
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