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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis: Clinton +7 in MI, +2 in CO on: July 14, 2016, 04:30:48 pm
Also why the hell in Michigan do they give "other" as a choice when they also ask about Johnson/Stein?

can't snub the US Taxpayers (Darrell Castle) and Natural Law (somebody) candidates.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) on: April 19, 2016, 11:04:23 pm
Results from Hasidic strongholds

New Square
55/98: Clinton 489, Sanders 3 / Kasich 197, Cruz 34, Carson (!!!) 12, Trump 11
58/95/109: Clinton 325, Sanders 2 / Kasich 153, Cruz 26, Trump 10, Carson 3.

totals: Clinton 814, Sanders 5 / Kasich 350, Cruz 60, Trump 21, Carson 15.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: April 01, 2016, 02:03:04 pm
guessing the color shades change dramatically if you go by total vote.

Louisiana SOS says the Dem electorate was 53% Black/44% White. 28% turnout for AA voters and 20% turnout for white voters.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: March 31, 2016, 06:46:43 pm
the differences in vote totals from one house district to another kinda makes it harder to take the caucus system seriously.

District 34: 10455 votes on 11/6/2012, 68% turnout. 8110 votes in the August 2014 primary, 53% turnout. 493 votes cast in the caucus. Carried by Obama 7589-2694.

District 7: 9218 votes on 11/6/2012, 61% turnout. 5114 votes in the August 2014 primary, 35% turnout. 1241 votes cast in the caucus. Carried by Obama 6640-2553.

I'd think that the more urbanized a district was, the lower the turnout was for the Caucuses. Which would be the opposite of expectation considering travel time.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: March 31, 2016, 04:44:59 pm
Looks like County data is now available on the Dem. side in Hawaii:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/hawaii


Nobody voted in that county with 91 people?

"Because of the small population, Kalawao County does not have the functions of other Hawaii counties. It is a judicial district of Maui County, which includes the rest of the island of Molokaʻi. The county has no elected government. Developed and used from 1866 to 1969 for settlements for treatment of quarantined persons with leprosy, it is administered by the Hawaii Department of Health. The only county statutes that apply to Kalawao County directly are those on matters of health"

So you're saying that people in Kalawao can vote, they just cast their ballots under Maui?

It appears Clinton won the Kalawao precinct (13-9) by a margin of 2 votes to 1 vote.

BTW, there's precinct results for the Hawaii Dem vote. I think realisticidealist might need to doublecheck the shapefiles for HI house districts that he uses though.

http://hawaiidemocrats.org/2016_ppp_results/

No precinct results from Niihau though.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: March 30, 2016, 07:33:39 pm
Looks like County data is now available on the Dem. side in Hawaii:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/hawaii


Nobody voted in that county with 91 people?

"Because of the small population, Kalawao County does not have the functions of other Hawaii counties. It is a judicial district of Maui County, which includes the rest of the island of Molokaʻi. The county has no elected government. Developed and used from 1866 to 1969 for settlements for treatment of quarantined persons with leprosy, it is administered by the Hawaii Department of Health. The only county statutes that apply to Kalawao County directly are those on matters of health"
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Utah-Y2 Analytics Poll: Cruz +24 on: March 20, 2016, 01:40:14 am
Kasich seems like he'd have his appeal to the more mainline type of conservative. Although Kasich and Cruz really differ more on tone than actual views.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Utah-Y2 Analytics Poll: Cruz +24 on: March 19, 2016, 10:27:38 pm
Buzzfeed's correspondent on Mormon Things McKay Coppins put out a column on Trump and Mormons tonight.

Mormon Voters Really Donít Like Donald Trump. Hereís Why.

The issues include Immigration and being too anti-Muslim.

Also..

Quote
"Trump is off-putting to Mormons for more predictable reasons as well. His blatant religious illiteracy, his penchant for onstage cursing, his habit of flinging crude insults at women, his less-than-virtuous personal life, and widely chronicled marital failures ó all of this is anathema to the wholesome, family-first lifestyle that Mormonism promotes. And demographically speaking, Mormons tend to reside outside Trumpís base of support anyway. They have higher-than-average education levels, whereas Trump does best among voters without any college education; they are more likely to be weekly churchgoers, while Trump performs better with Christians who donít or infrequently attend services."
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tom Coburn and Rick Perry discussed as potential third party Trump opponents on: March 19, 2016, 10:24:43 pm
I read this as "Tom Petty discussed as potential third party Trump opponent"

"Petty blasted for occasionally backing down in tough spots"
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tom Coburn and Rick Perry discussed as potential third party Trump opponents on: March 19, 2016, 09:56:18 pm
"Governor Perry, why are you putting your hand on my shoulder?"
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tom Coburn and Rick Perry discussed as potential third party Trump opponents on: March 19, 2016, 09:48:32 pm
New test for RW non-Trump independent candidates: "Is this a better idea than running Joe Lieberman as an Independent candidate?"
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Utah-Y2 Analytics Poll: Cruz +24 on: March 19, 2016, 09:40:35 pm
7% of the 2012 Romney vote going to a Dem puts the Dems at 30%, around a midpoint between Obama 08 and Obama 12.

The Mormon swing to Romney almost certainly swings back Dem a little.

a Trump, Hillary, other poll for Utah seems like it'd be a total mess at the moment.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Kalwejt's 2016 comparative maps on: March 18, 2016, 07:07:04 pm
a map of where the Non-Clinton/Bernie vote topped 5/10% would be "fun" too
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: March 17, 2016, 08:54:34 pm
extra datapoint for the Dem side: Sanders carried the Holy Cross campus (prec 6-4) 146-79 and Clark University (prec 8-3) 253-96. But Clinton won Worcester.

On the Rep side: Kasich carried Wellesley and Babson. Trump/Rubio tied at Smith. Trump carried Mount Holyoke. Rubio carried the MIT/Harvard precincts on his way to losing Cambridge. Trump carried Holy Cross with 32 of 75 votes and Clark U with 7 of 21 votes.

"College areas carried by Trump in the R Primary" seems like it'd be a fascinating list.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NY - Emerson: Clinton-71 Sanders-23 on: March 17, 2016, 08:12:51 pm
it's all relatively mild until HA Goodman starts posting conspiracy theories ala Larry Johnson/No Quarter did about Obama in 08.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NY - Emerson: Clinton-71 Sanders-23 on: March 17, 2016, 07:35:56 pm
NY doesn't have a Rahm Emanuel, right?

I think Teachout only got to 34% vs Andrew Cuomo.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: West Virginia (March 2-6): Clinton 44, Sanders 31% on: March 17, 2016, 03:59:20 pm
West Virginia has a primary open to Democrats and Independents.

There's 579,000 Democrats and 247,000 NPA voters in West Virginia. So that's 70/30 assuming all the NPAs vote in the Dem primary. But NPAs can vote in the Republican primary too. So.. probably closer to 80/20.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: AZ-Merrill Poll: Trump up 12, Clinton up 26 on: March 17, 2016, 01:05:37 pm
superquick math on the 3/22 states on the Dem side if Bernie gets around the low-mid 60s in ID/UT and Clinton has a strong AZ showing

Idaho: 14-9 Bernie

Utah: 22-11 Bernie

then Clinton has to win AZ by 46-29 (61% of delegates) to add to her lead. 25 of the 75 AZ delegates are PLEO or at-large. So, if she wins 60/40, she gets 15 of 25 delegates. Districts like AZ3 (Grijalva) and AZ7 (Gallego) only have 5 delegates and are splitting 3-2.

AZ1 (Kirkpatrick) and AZ9 (Sinema) are 6 delegates and probably hard to get a 4-2 in.

AZ2 (McSally) has 8 delegates. Clinton has run ads with Gabby Giffords outside of AZ, but I don't know if she can try to get a strong margin here by having Gabby in ads.

The rest are almost all 5 delegate districts (aside from 4 delegate AZ4)
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: West Virginia (March 2-6): Clinton 44, Sanders 31% on: March 17, 2016, 12:52:02 pm
West Virginia polling is really shaky at times. It just doesn't get attention because they're shaky in lower profile elections. Like "John Kerry trails by 5" shaky. Like "Obama trails by 14 vs Romney" shaky.

Fortunately for Clinton, Sanders isn't gonna absorb all the protest votes himself. There'll be parts of the state voting for Judd/De La Fuente/O'Malley, or some voting for Paul Ferrell (a dude from Huntington, WV) if WV still lists hometowns on the ballot. If the election was Clinton/Sanders one on one in some states, Sanders probably carries some of the "plurality Clinton" counties in places like Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana or North Carolina.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary be indicted? on: March 17, 2016, 12:41:25 pm
1) the FBI can't directly indict people

2) Conservatives banking on a Hillary indictment are really putting a lot of confidence in the DOJ that they usually dislike
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2016) on: March 17, 2016, 12:12:38 pm
The precinct I used to represent in the Amherst Town Meeting was the only one in Amherst Trump won...

And the Democratic map really drives home how bizarre the geography on that side turned out. e.g. in the Five Colleges area Sanders's best Amherst precincts are the UMass ones but his best Northampton precincts aren't the Smith ones.

Dem Primary results from Seven Sisters college precincts

Mount Holyoke, Precinct D: Sanders 319, Clinton 248

Smith, Prec 2B: Sanders 316, Clinton 182 and Prec 4A: Sanders 372, Clinton 203.

Wellesley, Precinct G: Clinton 360, Sanders 176

Two things about the Wellesley results

1) Her best Wellesley result appears to be in Precinct F, winning 369-126. That precinct also hosts Babson College, a private business school

2) Obama defeated Clinton in Wellesley in 2008, despite that whole "Clinton is an alumni" thing.

I've thought there might be a Public/Private split for Sanders performance in college areas. Looking at results from Cambridge, where Clinton won..

Prec 2/2 (MIT): 153-94 Sanders
Prec 2/3 (MIT): 203-202 Clinton
Prec 7/2 (Harvard campus): 314-271 Clinton
Prec 7/3 (Harvard campus): 217-179 Clinton
Prec 8/1 (The Quad): 439-348 Clinton
Prec 10/2 (The Quad): 784-536 Clinton

Sanders did carry the precinct in Boston around Harvard Stadium

My theory on public/private might be hard to prove/disprove.. but it's that Sanders policies on free public college drives up his numbers on public college campuses that he doesn't see on private college campuses for obvious reasons.

It'd be interesting to see if Sanders numbers around smaller private colleges lag because those small private universities may fare badly if students could go to a public university for nothing/almost nothing. Since the Southern primaries ended, I'd think the best "well but" involves small private colleges getting hit by the idea (instead of talking about HBCUs).
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL/IL/OH-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton leads; R: Kasich up in OH, Trump up in FL/IL on: March 13, 2016, 02:57:19 pm
What is it about the lack of polling in Missouri?

at the risk of besmirching Missouri.. it awards 71 delegates. FL/IL/OH award twice as many (FL 214/IL 156/OH 143). So the winner in FL or IL or OH gets more delegates in a 50/50 election than if one candidate carried Missouri 71-0.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET) on: March 09, 2016, 04:49:10 am
a quick check of the "By CD" results on the Michigan SOS site and the split says... 67-63 Sanders in Michigan. That differs from the 69-61 on TGP in 2 ways. Clinton carries CD13 by a 6-3 margin and At-Large splits 14-14 instead of 15-13.

The Mississippi split is absurd. 32 to 4. Sanders not viable in CDs 2/3.

So, that'd add up to Clinton 95/Sanders 71 for the night. Margin of around 220 in pledged delegates.

As for the actual loss in Michigan... that'll teach certain people for trusting Michigan-based pollsters. Check those firms before tonight. Lousy records all over.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Predicts - March 8 and March 12 Primary Contests on: March 08, 2016, 03:19:55 am
Kinda playing hunches for this stuff..

Democrats:

Michigan - Clinton 58; Sanders 41; Other 1
Mississippi - Clinton 80; Sanders 18; Other 2
Northern Mariana Islands - Clinton 65; Sanders 34; Other 1

Republicans:

Hawaii - Trump 21; Cruz 35; Rubio 34; Kasich 10;
Idaho - Trump 34; Cruz 38; Rubio 19; Kasich 9;
Michigan - Trump 37; Cruz 20; Rubio 13; Kasich 29; Other 1
Mississippi - Trump 40; Cruz 35; Rubio 15; Kasich 9; Other 1
Guam - Trump 25; Cruz 22; Rubio 53; Kasich 10;
Washington D.C. - Trump 22; Cruz 13; Rubio 44; Kasich 21;
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: MI-Mitchell/FOX2: final poll shows Kasich gaining, but Trump/Clinton far ahead on: March 08, 2016, 03:12:49 am
they must imprison lousy pollsters in Michigan and force them to keep working
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