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1701  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do you think John McCain is going to lose this time? on: January 18, 2016, 03:28:17 pm
I can imagine McCain losing to Ward, though considering how he destroyed Hayworth I really don't think it'll happen. McCain does still have contacts (Palin has lost prominence since 2010 but I'd imagine she still has some pull with these types of voters) on the anti-establishment side of the GOP who will pull for him if necessary. In the general, Kirkpatrick of course can win if there is a sufficiently large Democratic wave, but I tend to doubt it; Arizona is a pretty inelastic state and it's not a place where the Republican base will be put off by one of the more extreme presidential nominees.

As to McCain dying in his seat, I thought it was well-known that Martha McSally is his intended successor, and he's running again because she wouldn't be able to win the primary as a first-term Congresswoman. He'll most likely retire in 2022 (though I can imagine her losing her seat, McCain not finding a new "successor", and ending up running for yet another term as he tries to groom someone else). Chuck Grassley and Dick Shelby strike me as die-in-the-seat types, but I don't really think McCain is.
1702  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-19 on: January 18, 2016, 03:23:11 pm
What are your thoughts on the Faso vs. Heaney primary? Is this an area where the NYGOP establishment (which I imagine to be pulling very hard for Faso) has a great deal of power, or could Heaney end up getting the nomination?

Also, do you think the general election will correlate with the presidential election or not? I think the top Republican candidates, Trump and Cruz, are both very likely to lose this district to Hillary, but it's traditionally very Republican downballot and I can imagine either top Republican successfully distancing themselves from the presidential candidate and winning. I don't think this Yandik fellow is particularly well-known, at least at present.
1703  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-Sen 2018: Mandel launches fundraising effort for possible run on: January 18, 2016, 03:20:09 pm
As an actual Ohio Republican, it's been well-known for a while that Mandel, short of some very unlikely scenario like losing reelection in 2014, has been planning a rematch with Brown.

As to those saying he's a weak candidate, I think you're misinterpreting the lessons of the 2012 campaign: rather, Brown is a very, very strong candidate, and probably the most talented politician that the Ohio Democratic Party has, and Mandel ran a very credible fight against him; over the summer, even as Ohio was effectively tied (or Obama had a very small lead), Brown was leading Mandel by double-digits; even as Ohio moved left in the autumn, towards a more certain Obama lead, Mandel was making up the gap with Brown. It was ultimately not enough, but the point was that this wasn't a race that correlated with the presidential race, and there were a decent number of Brown/Romney voters. These people voted for Brown, not against Mandel.

At the same time, Ohio is a very different state now between presidential versus midterm elections; consider that every statewide election in 2014 Republicans won by double-digits. The different electorate will be a weight on Brown's shoulders, and Mandel will be stronger since he'll have eight rather than two years of statewide experience. In a neutral or pro-Democratic environment Brown should win, but I think Mandel has a very strong shot in a Hillary midterm, which should tilt R in really any case.
1704  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you do drugs? on: January 15, 2016, 09:26:15 pm
I drink pretty frequently and I do smoke pot occasionally, though I don't really make a habit out of it. Never tried anything more serious than that. Voted for the first option.
1705  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite Constitutional Amendment on: January 15, 2016, 04:25:25 pm
Voting 2nd to piss off the gun control weenies, but really it's got to be the 1st.
1706  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Cruz regretting the "New York values" line of attack? on: January 15, 2016, 03:44:34 pm
Yup, he walked right into a buzzsaw. If he had avoided it, he would've been the undisputed winner of the debate last night, and possibly now leading nationally. As such, the result was probably status quo ante.
1707  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Tom Vilsack have any future in politics? on: January 15, 2016, 03:37:57 pm
Considering what a total failure his 2008 campaign was and that he hasn't been particularly prominent or in the news as Ag Secretary, I can't see him running for President again even if 2020 is an open year. I can see him, maybe, staying on as Ag Secretary for another few years if Clinton does win, but once he leaves that position it'll be the end of the road. I don't know how popular he is nowadays among Iowa Democrats, but if he's still well-liked his endorsement could matter in presidential politics so long as he remains alive. But I don't think he'll play the game himself ever again.
1708  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Krauthammer right now is saying that trump and cruz were in cahoots on NY bit on: January 15, 2016, 10:25:42 am
That makes no sense, it was far and away the worst hit Cruz has taken in any debate yet
1709  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win the D nomination? on: January 15, 2016, 10:22:31 am
Clinton still leads Bernie in IA. So long as Clinton does win IA (>50% chance, imo), I don't think the predicted surge for Bernie among women and minorities ever comes about, and Clinton wins the nomination fairly easily.
1710  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of ag? on: January 15, 2016, 09:45:22 am
He can be trollish sometimes and we disagree on rather a lot, but (echoing what others have said here) he is knowledgeable about things many here aren't and he provides a unique viewpoint. Voted FF, and I would be sorry to see him go.
1711  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who was the biggest loser of the main Fox Business Debate? on: January 15, 2016, 09:27:19 am
Nobody's been voting for Carson on the strength/weakness of his debate performances. It didn't matter when he was at 25%, it didn't matter now.

Kasich came off as basically competent, but he (along with Carson) didn't really engage with the other candidates. Kasich is going for the Huntsman constituency and hoping that's enough to at least place second and keep his campaign going after NH. What he needed to do was not blow it. He didn't blow it.

The biggest loser, of course, was Jeb Bush, whose attacks on Trump came off as weak and ridiculous. Yes, the audience booed Trump when he insulted Bush, but make no mistake that Bush is only continuing to decline. At this point Christie and Kasich both seem likelier than Bush to supplant Rubio as the eventual establishment candidate (whatever being establishment candidate is worth in this race).
1712  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton Isn't Ruling Out a Female Running-Mate on: January 15, 2016, 09:21:23 am
It's not that a female running-mate would necessarily be a bad idea for Hillary, it's just difficult to see who it would be. The problem with picking a Senator is, in many cases, you risk giving up the Senate seat, the only incumbent female Democratic Governor is Gina Raimondo, who is unacceptably far to the right, along with being too new. Hilda Solis is too focused right now on LA politics. I think the most plausible female running-mate would be Amy Klobuchar, who could maybe work as a messenger to the Midwest, who would be replaced by another Democrat if she vacated her Senate seat, and who would certainly do no harm to the campaign.

Ultimately, though, it's hard for me to see the VP nominee not being one of Joaquin Castro, Tim Kaine, or John Hickenlooper. They are far and away the three most logical choices.
1713  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Where are you on the hawk dove spectrum? on: January 14, 2016, 08:15:46 pm
Voted 2, but definitely closer to 1 than 3.
1714  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: VA-2: Rigell retiring on: January 14, 2016, 05:55:27 pm
I don't think Rigell is aiming to run for Governor, considering how crowded that field already is and that he doesn't seem to have made any motion in that direction in the past. He's either planning to run for the Senate in 2018, has stepped aside to avoid a battle with Forbes, or is stepping aside on account of his health. I don't think a gubernatorial bid is in the cards.
1715  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: In which region are you a resident? on: January 14, 2016, 10:15:23 am
Grey for nearly all of my life, but I lived in the blue region between the ages of 4 and 7. I have visited all of these regions multiple times.
1716  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you bought a Powerball ticket? on: January 14, 2016, 10:12:44 am
no, because i dont live in a state of delusion
1717  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Evil or Not Special: Most Evil So Far? on: January 14, 2016, 10:03:28 am
I think Lenin needs to be put in the context of his time; many of the White forces his government used questionable methods to defeat would have been far, far worse for Russia, and after the end of the Civil War he brought in the NEP. He's certainly nowhere near the level of the Kims or the Confederates. Ultimately voted Kims since they also built their terrible system themselves, whereas the Confederates were at least defending something they'd inherited, even if it was totally awful.
1718  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Bill of Rights on: January 14, 2016, 10:00:47 am
FF on all, very literally. I think the 8th, the first part of which is extremely open to interpretation (what constitutes something being "cruel and unusual" would be different for every person, and certain crimes that are "cruel and unusual" probably deserve such a response) is probably the closest to being HP, but its second part, which unfortunately we as a nation have not been following recently (excessive fines abound in our court system, and paying bail for minor crimes sometimes leaves poor people in our society trying to pay back debts) more than makes up for the ambiguity of the first.
1719  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of John Howard on: January 14, 2016, 09:50:31 am
His gun laws are unforgivable, and in fact he's never repented. HP.
His gun laws were one of his few good traits.

His gun laws utterly ruined what would otherwise have been a pretty decent time at the helm.
1720  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who was the worst candidate: Sharron Angle or Martha Coakley? on: January 14, 2016, 09:43:01 am
Angle was the worse candidate, though I have to note that she still performed much less embarrassingly than Coakley (losing as a Republican by single-digits in Nevada once is far less damning than losing as a Democrat by single-digits in Massachusetts...twice). Of course, in addition to the atmosphere, Angle had the advantage of facing a very low-energy opponent in Harry Reid, while Coakley went up against two heavyweights in Scott Brown and Charlie Baker.
1721  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of John Howard on: January 14, 2016, 08:15:46 am
His gun laws are unforgivable, and in fact he's never repented. HP.
1722  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / What if Rubio were not running? on: January 14, 2016, 12:00:20 am
When Rubio first announced his candidacy, I said that he had made a mistake; that he would trend on Jeb's toes without actually having any chance himself, and that by giving up his Senate seat he was ensuring that he had no future except in the (I thought, unlikely) chance that his campaign was at least moderately successful. It seems that I was wrong; certainly about the first point and most likely about the second, as even if Rubio does not win the nomination unless he falls totally flat on his face he will probably win a few states and salvage a career.

But what if Rubio ran for reelection instead of the Presidency? Let's say no one else is tempted to enter the race by this, and this does not dissuade anyone from running either. Does Jeb remain as the establishmentarian alternative to Trump? Would Walker remain successful, and could he have been able to bridge the gap between Rubio's "establishment" voters and Carson/Cruz's "evangelical" supporters? Or would Rubio's votes have been picked up by Kasich, who is fighting in NH for a similar constituency? Christie is tonally very different, but would he have some appeal?
1723  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OK State Sen: Dem. elected in 70% Romney seat on: January 13, 2016, 11:09:02 am
Eh, voters are taking their frustration over the Oklahoma Republican Party's policies out in special elections. I don't really think it's a meaningful trend outside of Oklahoma itself (and, if the KS-2014 races taught us anything, I doubt Ds could pull off a statewide win in OK if 2018 is a Democratic midterm).
1724  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The American Monarchy on: January 12, 2016, 03:00:43 pm
The great Donald Trump would not have abandoned his big, beautiful timeline in the 1950s Sad
1725  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Where would you rather live? on: January 12, 2016, 02:52:47 pm
I'm from southern Brooklyn. I know the precinct I lived in for many years had Obama just narrowly edging out McCain in 2008; I don't know how it voted in 2012, though I think Obama improved in southern Brooklyn (like in Staten Island), so he likely won it twice. Regardless, there are nearby very similar precincts that cast their votes for McCain, and probably also for Romney. Voted for the latter.
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