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1701  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 7: TN, August 9: HI) on: August 07, 2014, 11:32:23 pm
JOE CARR FOR TN-4 US REPRESENTATIVE 2016
1702  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win these House races? on: August 06, 2014, 01:08:27 pm
McSally, DeMaio, and Stefanik seem to definitely be at least mildly favored; the other two are less clear. Split the difference ultimately; voted for Appel, but otherwise all Republicans.
1703  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN: The news channel for people who have never looked at a map on: August 06, 2014, 12:46:12 pm
They could be forgiven. What would a person from Niger be called?

Nigerien is the usual term, with an 'e' to distinguish them from the Nigerians. I believe it's pronounced the same way, however.
1704  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 06, 2014, 01:40:37 am
I still want to know why the Kansas Senate Democratic primary was so close. I didn't even know there was a second candidate, let alone that he was viable.
Probably a problem of name recognition for Taylor led some voters to go with Wiesner. Outside of Topeka, Taylor I would imagine isn't well-known. I've gotta feel bad for Taylor, though. Like Childers, he only jumped in because he saw an opening to win the seat if Wolf won the GOP nomination.

The Tea Party may have narrowly been able to primary Roberts if it wasn't for those 2 perennial candidates. Wolf had too low of name rec. to get all of the anti-Roberts votes and if those 2 others dropped out, Wolf could have realistically beat Roberts 52-48.

Todd Tiahrt really picked the wrong race. He ran to Moran's right in 2010 and only lost 50-45; he's much better known than Wolf, doesn't have any of Wolf's flaws, and could've easily consolidated TP, and some amount of establishment support to knock off Roberts. Instead he ran against Pompeo, got crushed, and probably finished his political career. He could be headed to the Senate right now.
1705  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: How do you do on this USPS employment test? on: August 06, 2014, 01:36:22 am
92%. 3 off on the memory, otherwise perfect.
1706  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 06, 2014, 01:21:19 am
And the Michigan 14th District goes for Hobbs, who finishes at 36.1%! Lawrence at 35.7%.



With counting done, a margin of 240 votes by Hobbs over Lawrence, no checkmark and no concession. This one'll certainly go to a recount -- it's close enough that the margin could conceivably be made up, and the seat is safe enough that the extra time spent without knowing who the nominee is makes no difference.

Not quite sure what's going on, but the vote totals have now changed to Lawrence 35.7%; Hobbs 32.4%...guess we'll just have to wait and see to know what the correct total is.



Two and a half thousand (2493 to be precise) votes and no precincts out should be enough for a checkmark by Lawrence's name, but none seems to be forthcoming...very odd. I guess Lawrence has won in that case (?).
1707  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Wenzel Strategies (R): McConnell+4 on: August 06, 2014, 12:20:17 am
Wenzel is terrible, we know, but this is right in line with the polling consensus -- over the past month, SurveyUSA had McConnell+2 and CBS/YouGov showed McConnell+4. Maybe McConnell leads by a tad less, but it's pretty clear he has a lead in the low single digits right now.
1708  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV: Tennant doesn't support "most" of Obama's policies on: August 06, 2014, 12:18:09 am
She could be setting herself up for pulling an Evan Jenkins and running as a Republican for something down the road; this is a state which is moving extremely rapidly to the Republicans and where their bench is absolutely terrible (note that they nominated, for two congressional seats that Romney won overwhelmingly, the former chairman of the Maryland GOP and a Democratic state Senator). Tennant could switch parties and run for Governor or the other Senate seat later this decade.
1709  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How large will Kasich's victory be? on: August 06, 2014, 12:14:20 am
Low double digits. Kasich got pretty lucky in his opponent.
1710  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: AZ Gov: Christine Jones (R) guns for GOP nod on: August 06, 2014, 12:13:29 am
This sort of confusion is what happens when you have a primary with six viable candidates, four consistently in the double-digits.
1711  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 05, 2014, 11:50:33 pm
And the Michigan 14th District goes for Hobbs, who finishes at 36.1%! Lawrence at 35.7%.



With counting done, a margin of 240 votes by Hobbs over Lawrence, no checkmark and no concession. This one'll certainly go to a recount -- it's close enough that the margin could conceivably be made up, and the seat is safe enough that the extra time spent without knowing who the nominee is makes no difference.
1712  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CA-Gravis: Clinton 49% Paul 40%; Paul 44% Warren 33% on: August 05, 2014, 11:02:48 pm
Now we know Gravis is a joke.
    I don't think it's that crazy three a lot of conservatives in California just like lots of liberals there too.

...That was sarcastic, right?

There are 12 conservatives in Eastern California and the Northeast corner, and one of them is Tim Donnelly.

While conservatives are severely outnumbered by liberals in California, and the Republican nominee will pretty much certainly not win California in 2016, and can hope at most to merely lose by high single-digits in the event of a massive landslide, there are in fact more than 12 conservatives in California; in fact, California has the third-biggest Republican delegation in the House of any state (after Texas and Florida) and before defeats in 2012 it was second-biggest. In terms of popular vote, California gave more votes to Mitt Romney than any other state except Texas. The state's population is just absolutely massive compared to anyone else.
1713  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 05, 2014, 10:29:20 pm
In somewhat worse news for the GOP, Pedro Celis is currently trailing Some Dude Robert Sutherland for the right to face Suzan DelBene, who is at 52%. (Trailing 15-16; numbers don't inspire confidence). Denny Heck is only leading his opponent, Some Dude(tte?) Joyce McDonald, 51-41; this seat might've been an overlooked opportunity. All depends on where these votes are coming from, of course.
1714  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: John Walsh, plagiarist? on: August 05, 2014, 10:21:15 pm
How about Schweitzer?

If Schweitzer wanted to run, he'd have decided to run back in 2013.
1715  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 05, 2014, 10:19:58 pm
With 2 precincts in in WA-4, Didier is out at 47%, Newhouse at 17%, Newbry at 10%, the two Democrats at 7% each, and everyone else below 5%. Very early, of course.

EDIT: No point to a new post; with 20 precincts in, Didier is down to 36%, Newhouse is up to 22%, Beltran at 11%, Cicotte at 10%, Sandoval 7%, Newbry 6%. Everyone else below 5.
1716  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 05, 2014, 09:08:30 pm
Looks like the MI and KS races have sorted themselves out for the most part. WA-04 should be interesting when the polls close there.

Not sure that this is the case; Hobbs/Lawrence and Huelskamp/LaPolice can both definitely still go either way.
1717  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 05, 2014, 08:40:35 pm
In MO-7, incumbent Billy Long is leading Some Dude Marshall Works just 56-44 with 12% reporting. Could be worth keeping an eye on.

And congratulations on a well-deserved victory to Justin Amash.
1718  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH-Gov: Fitzgerald in on: August 05, 2014, 08:23:37 pm
How is Mary Taylor unelected? She was elected on a ticket with Kasich. Was LBJ unelected when he succeeded JFK as President in 1963?
That's just the way it's been for the past few decades. Our Lt. Governor used to be elected separately, but on far too many instances the Lt. Gov was of a different party than the Gov (ex. Democratic Gov John Gilligan's Lt. Gov was Republican John Brown). The position is pretty much nothing, but it still allows for a more diverse ticket every 4 years and it's still a great stepping stone for future office (ex. former Sen and current AG Mike DeWine is a former LG as well as current Ohio Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor).

First of all, I also live in Ohio (coincidentally enough, in Westlake, the very community where Ed Fitzgerald was stopped several years ago). Second off, my point is that when two people are elected as part of a ticket, they've both been elected, and 'replacing the Governor if XYZ happens' is in fact the job description of the Lieutenant Governor, the very role to which Mary Taylor has been elected. (It's all academic, since I very, very strongly doubt Kasich will run for President in 2016 after his reelection.)
1719  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 05, 2014, 08:17:48 pm
Huelskamp only up 51/49 (!).

This is LaPolice, open up!
1720  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 5: KS, MI, MO, WA) on: August 05, 2014, 07:44:17 pm
Hobbs and Lawrence are both at about 40% in MI-14. Clarke is back at 19% Tongue

Nothing is in from Wayne County, though, and that's Clarke's base. Also, Lawrence currently leads Hobbs by 35 votes Shocked
1721  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH-Gov: Fitzgerald in on: August 05, 2014, 04:13:14 pm
How is Mary Taylor unelected? She was elected on a ticket with Kasich. Was LBJ unelected when he succeeded JFK as President in 1963?
1722  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-PPP: Cotton +2 on: August 05, 2014, 04:11:52 pm
RIP Democratic Senate majority.

Cotton isn't necessary for the majority. So long as we hold Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa we are fine.

Not if Hagan loses.
1723  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Present Israel-Palestine Conflict Thread on: August 05, 2014, 04:07:05 pm


You really can't do any better than a mixture of made-up quotes and quotes from has-beens? Ignoring the remarkable diversity in political opinions, religious beliefs, et cetera that exist among 'ordinary Israeli citizens' (~20% are Muslims, for instance), Yosef is literally dead of old age, Sharon has never been in the government and has basically had no influence since his father went into a coma in 2006, Ben-Ari was always an incredibly fringey figure who was barely elected in 2009 and was defeated in 2013; Yishai is an opposition figure and Dichter is a has-been. Katz is the only figure on that list with any influence over Israeli policy in 2014. Also I looked up several of those quotes (specifically, the Dichter and Katz quotes) and couldn't find any source or context other than just repetitions of that list, which leads me to suspect that they are fake.
1724  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK-PPP - Begich (D) in the lead. on: August 05, 2014, 02:50:00 pm
Treadwell seems to be doing a little better than Sullivan in the general election, and Sullivan seems to be losing support in the primary...I wonder if Treadwell will be the nominee after all.
1725  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rand Paul give up his Senate seat to run for President in 2016? on: August 05, 2014, 02:05:17 pm
I'm inclined to say yes, unless he flops hard in the summer of 2015. He won't be reconsidering these things come January, and he's made it abundantly clear that he's running. So unless he's the new Pawlenty (which is doubtful), he'll be out of the Senate in 2017, probably replaced by Massie. His influence comes not from his seniority in the Senate or position on committees, but because he's one of the most prominent Republicans with his sort of views, and that's because he intends to run for President. In other words, I think he stands more to lose by not running than by giving up his Senate seat.
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