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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1701  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: College Students Are Ridiculously Infuriating Safe-Space/Mega-thread on: April 14, 2016, 04:55:32 pm
I like the "I have never been denied an opportunity because of my gender." question. Who can that possibly apply to?

Regardless, I got 64/100. Although some of the questions when read literally will provide the "wrong" answer: the hair question is clearly meant to give extra points to anyone who isn't black, but my Jewfro has certainly been touched by strangers. Also, I gave myself the point for not knowing what Sallie Mae is, but I've since looked it up and presumably have lost some privilege for doing so. Joke quiz.
1702  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Prediction: There will not be an Establishment Ticket on: April 14, 2016, 04:42:15 pm
That's a pretty big if, though.
1703  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz's roommate on Cruz's sex toy ban: he wasn't always anti-masturbation on: April 14, 2016, 04:41:41 pm
Craig Mazin constantly announcing to the world his freshman-year college roommate's habits is getting a little weird, don'tcha think
1704  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early predictions for FL-SEN on: April 14, 2016, 04:35:23 pm
Republicans are likeliest because if the Democrats nominate Grayson the seat is probably pissed away, but I think if Murphy is nominated he starts with a small advantage.
1705  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-Sen: Sen Mike Lee (R-UT) endorses Marlin Stutzman (R-IN) for Senate on: April 14, 2016, 04:34:03 pm
Is the primary on May 3? Cruz's coattails may carry Stutzman across the finish line.
1706  General Discussion / History / Re: Who was the greatest statesman in South Carolina's history? on: April 14, 2016, 04:32:32 pm
F**king arsehole though he was, it seems very difficult to not give John Calhoun the title. Thurmond is in second place.
1707  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Kasich crack 20% in Washington? on: April 14, 2016, 04:20:27 pm
No. The mid-Atlantic is the only part of the country with Kasich voters unwilling to back Cruz to stop trump; also, just generally, the Republican parties of the Pacific Northwest are very right-wing (though this is more the case in Oregon than Washington).
1708  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: South Korea parliament April 13th (today) on: April 13, 2016, 08:25:27 pm
Considering the People's Party won a few seats in the Seoul area, I think People's Party = Jeolla Party is a bit of a simplistic analysis. Aren't they a combination of Jeolla regionalists and moderates who've gone along because Jeolla tended to have the more moderate wing of the party while its voters in the capital region tended (but not uniformly) to be more left-wing?
1709  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election April 10, 2016 on: April 13, 2016, 06:43:52 pm
Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...
1710  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Vice presidential speculation megathread on: April 13, 2016, 06:25:20 pm
i maintain that drumpf's perfect vp candidate would be joni ernst, a female veteran from a swing state who is considered an outsider but does not totally lack experience/legitimacy.

cruz, on the other hand, would be likely imo to pick a running mate from within the establishment, given what his path to the nomination would look like. probably nobody really moderate, but a mainstream republican like chris christie, or john thune. rubio is also a possibility. if he does venture outside of those bounds, it'd be mia love or a different token woman/minority.

clinton or sanders would likely pick someone incredibly boring (kaine, warner, )

The chance of Cruz picking a trump-supporter who is very personally unpopular his own home non-swing state is basically zero. Christie is probably done with politics after 2017, though he perhaps has a chance at a Cabinet appointment in some future administration someday (though he bet on the wrong horse, both for 2016 and in the long-term).
1711  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are there any known dates on which an indiana poll will be released? on: April 13, 2016, 06:22:29 pm
The fierce, barbarian tribe of Hoosiers do not tolerate being asked their opinions.
1712  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was Ted's 'New York values' attack against Trump intended to be anti-Semetic? on: April 13, 2016, 06:21:54 pm
No, No (Jewish, normal).
1713  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict how close the general will be (whichever party wins). on: April 13, 2016, 06:21:23 pm
I'm inclined to say there's a bimodal distribution, with a massive, greater than 2008 blowout in a Clinton v. trump election (in Clinton's benefit), and probably a narrow, reverse-2004 style victory in Clinton v. Cruz, where it's slightly closer than 2012. Deterministically, a closer election is the likeliest scenario, but probabilistically, a wider Democratic victory is likelier. Voted for the latter.
1714  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio: I will support Cruz on second ballot on: April 13, 2016, 06:16:30 pm
Isn't Kaisch playing more for a 4th or 5th ballot scenario.

I don't get why he is going to align with Trump, he gets nothing out of handing the nomination to Donald .

Kasich's come to the conclusion (as have the more intelligent people on this board) that we've reached a point where the Cruz nomination is the likeliest scenario, so aligning with trump to reduce the Cruz presence on the Rules and Credentials Committee is very important to Kasich's chances for President. Apparently trump is far enough away from majorities on these Committees that there's not a chance of trump seizing control for himself. Kasich is going to oppose whoever the actual frontrunner is to maximize his own chances.
1715  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Plausible Convention Compromise Picks on: April 13, 2016, 06:12:43 pm
Most to least likely nominees:

1. Donald Trump
2. Ted Cruz
3. John Kasich
4. Paul Ryan
5. Marco Rubio
6. Nikki Haley
7. Tim Scott
8. Susana Martinz
9. Bill Haslam
10. Bob Corker
11. Brian Sandoval
12. John Thune
13. Jeff Flake
14. Jeb Bush
15. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
16 Mike Rounds

I've looked through lists of all sitting GOP Governors, Senators, and Representatives, and basically everyone else is either too old, too new, too unpopular, too ambiguous, too liberal, or too conservative. And yes, I know Sandoval and Ros-Lehtinen are pro-choice.

You do know that Ros-Lehtinen is a naturalized citizen and ineligible for the Presidency, right?

I would say that the odds right now are along the lines of 55% Cruz, 40% trump, and 5% anyone else. Indiana, which is a necessary Cruz victory to stopper any post-mid-Atlantic momentum, should clear up basically everything and might be the most crucial state left in the calendar; by the time California comes along it should be clear whether trump is on track for the nomination or not.
1716  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio: I will support Cruz on second ballot on: April 13, 2016, 06:07:02 pm
Kasich's not going to endorse trump or put any rule like that into effect. His whole goal is to prevent a Cruz nomination on the second ballot and then emerge as the nominee himself later on. Thus, he's trying to line up people on the Rules Committee specifically to fight rules that would prevent delegates from voting for him, which are the rules the Cruz people will be pushing for, since the delegates will overwhelmingly be more favorable to Cruz than trump.

Kasich does not have a more positive opinion of trump than Cruz does, and he'll be perfectly happy to align with Cruz to stop trump winning. His goal is to prevent anyone from crossing 1237, by any means necessary, until some bright day in the future the frustration gets to people's heads and they cope by nominating him.
1717  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Donald Trump be remembered in 2066? on: April 13, 2016, 05:29:20 pm
Sorry folks, Trump may be a blip in history but the values and beliefs that he represents are not. His ilk are no longer sitting silently on the sidelines, it's all out and in the open now. It's going to stay that way barring a complete and sudden radical change in American culture.

You don't realize the fact that they've come out into the open is indicative that the change (the change being that their children are not preserving some of their beliefs/values) is already underway?
1718  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio: I will support Cruz on second ballot on: April 13, 2016, 05:27:06 pm
Bad move this early.  This is just asking for Kasich to cut a deal with Trump and try to deny Cruz a majority on the Rules Committee.

I guess the question is...does Kasich have the presence, in state conventions and delegate numbers, to pull something like this off? I don't think this is the case.
1719  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would the race look like now had Rubio won Florida? on: April 13, 2016, 05:24:49 pm
Subbing trump's name is going to get tiresome in a long post, so I'll just do it here at the beginning and not in the remainder of the post.

OK. I didn't really do elaborate calculations for Alaska or Minnesota, where I simply went with a gut feeling that Cruz would win both states. In northern states (MA+VT), I gave Romney the full Rubio+Kasich contingent along with 1/6 of the Trump vote (very far from 1/2), since in real life no serious campaign really challenged Trump in Massachusetts or Vermont, and Romney has extensive experience campaigning and winning in such areas. (Sure, Trump won 49% in MA, but Romney won 72% in 2012, which suggests to me that a majority of Trump's voters originated with Romney, and with a home-court advantage Romney should still get a decent portion of them; this gives the following results):

MA: Romney 44, Trump 41
VT: Romney 54, Trump 28

I counted Virginia as a part of the South; in the South I combined (3/5)Rubio+Kasich to get a Romney baseline (giving the remaining 2/5 to Cruz; I think a decent part of the Rubio vote would not have been amenable to Romney), and then proceeded to do a modified 1/8 Trump->Romney calculation anyway; there's some evidence that there was Bush->Trump movement after SC among low-information voters, and there would've been some business/Northeastern types who liked Trump who might've preferred Romney; it's also a mild penalty for having failed to win a single state before Super Tuesday. This gives the following results in the South:

Alabama: Trump 38, Cruz 29, Romney 20
Arkansas: Cruz 40, Trump 29, Romney 23
Georgia: Trump 34, Cruz 34, Romney 26
Oklahoma: Cruz 44, Trump 25, Romney 23
Tennessee: Trump 34, Cruz 33, Romney 23
Texas: Cruz 51, Trump 24, Romney 18
Virginia: Romney 32, Trump 31, Cruz 30

Notice the only really guaranteed state for Trump is Alabama; Georgia and Tennessee are basically coin-flips favoring Trump (his margin in Georgia is less than 0.5), and any of the three candidates could conceivably have won Virginia. There's very little way to argue that after these results, Cruz would not have a massive delegate lead, possibly a majority of all delegates.

At this point, we move to Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine: I hope you agree under the circumstances I've described all four vote for Cruz. Romney might've been able to construct an operation challenging Cruz's in Maine; I doubt it. We next go to the HIMM states; I think Romney could've basically replicated Cruz's coalition in Idaho; most likely won in Michigan by taking Kasich+Rubio+some small section of Trump's support, as I envision him doing in the north; Mississippi would probably still have voted Trump (though it's not inconceivable that Cruz could've taken it if some of the coin-flips on Super Tuesday do go his way), and I think how Hawaii votes is unknowable, because we don't know how much of Trump's support came from Romney and how much would've preferred him.

The FIMNO states are next. It's hard to say what Florida would've done without Rubio's home-state effect or Trump being the overall delegate leader, but Trump would probably have won if he was still a serious candidate. Cruz would probably have carried North Carolina & Missouri; in the north, where little of Rubio's support prefers Cruz to Romney, Romney would've very likely carried Illinois and probably Ohio as well, though perhaps not by as much as Kasich.

I can keep going, but the point is that the race turns into Romney v. Cruz primarily, with Trump as a third wheel. I can see Trump staying in and forcing a contested convention, but I could just as easily imagine him leaving after Super Tuesday and turning it into a straight fight. Either way, my basic points stands.
1720  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Delegate Fight: 2016 on: April 13, 2016, 04:59:13 pm
Couldn't the Credentials Committee rule, based on California state law, that any delegates picked after May 7 are ineligible and therefore simply declare their positions vacant? I doubt they would do this unless it was totally necessary, but it seems like a very possible interpretation of the rules.
1721  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Vice presidential speculation megathread on: April 13, 2016, 04:52:19 pm
Thing is, Cruz/Brown is a ticket whose total experience is 7 years in the Senate. That's...not a lot.

Cruz needs a governor or a prominent businessman/military type. Walker and Haley are the two most logical choices if he decides to go the first route, with Mitch Daniels or John Kasich being dark horses if they really want it. (Tim Pawlenty, who's already been vetted twice, might've been very logical, but he's moved on to lobbying, so probably not; Brian Sandoval might be too moderate, and there'd be visible disagreements between the top and bottom of the ticket). James Mattis, a retired general who is also renowned for speaking his mind, might be an effective way of appealing to trump folks without alienating everyone else (or Stanley McChrystal could serve basically the same function). Not sure who a choice from the business world would be -- the only names coming to mind are Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, who both have very obvious problems.

EDIT: McChrystal has a history of endorsing congressional Democrats and speaking out in favor of gun control (apparently, he was involved in Seth Moulton's 2014 campaign) -- as trump showed, this doesn't necessarily have to be a deal-breaker, but I'm inclined to think for Ted Cruz it would be.
1722  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio: I will support Cruz on second ballot on: April 13, 2016, 03:08:48 pm
If he really care about stopping Trump, he should swallow his ego and just endorse Cruz now.

That's not the case, because at least on paper he is still running a "suspended" campaign, and getting to keep all his pledged delegates on the first ballot. There's a risk, if they become unpledged by him admitting that he's dropped out, that some of them will leak to trump (this briefly happened in Alaska but was reversed). Thus, no endorsement is coming until after the failure of the first ballot.
1723  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz Closer to Preventing Donald Trump's Nomination on: April 13, 2016, 03:05:53 pm
Brilliant! Cheesy Cruz is a political mastermind.
1724  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would the race look like now had Rubio won Florida? on: April 13, 2016, 03:02:06 pm
He would've come in second in Arizona. Considering the results in Idaho and Nevada, Cruz probably would've edged him out in Utah, but with both under 50 and the delegates allocated proportionally; Wisconsin might've been very narrow between Rubio and trump, and it's difficult to say who would've won, though I'm inclined to say 35% (maybe a small number would've left for Rubio; 32-34%) would've been enough for trump to win, a la South Carolina.

He would've received more delegates in the contests since Florida, but that 99 delegate removal would've also been extremely meaningful. If all three candidates were to remain in through the end, though, I think trump would end up meaningfully stronger in California, such that by the end of the process he'd have more delegates than he most likely will in real life. It's quite difficult to say, though.

This all assumes that Kasich still wins Ohio. If Rubio wins Florida but Kasich loses Ohio, Rubio probably wins Utah and Wisconsin by absorbing the full Kasich vote along with a solid chunk of the Cruz vote, is on track to split the Northeast (NY/CT/RI/DE going trump, Rubio favored in PA/MD), win California, and then tussle with Cruz at a brokered convention -- Cruz likely still has the upper hand in delegate selection, though Rubio wouldn't take it all lying down like trump.

The really interesting question with regard to this election, I still see as Romney running and receiving the $100 million in January 2015 instead of Jeb. trump would still have risen into a national lead, but he wouldn't have been able to knock Romney out like he did Jeb, and Romney is the perfect combination of strong in New England and parts of the West while weak in the South to split the early states with Cruz (IA/SC going Cruz, and NH/NV going Romney), leading to trump not winning a state until Super Tuesday and ending up in early March holding a national lead and still being a decided third-wheel in the delegate count.

Really?  Are you sure?  "He's a nice guy, but he's a loser.  He had his chance.  He lost.  America needs a winner, not a loser!"

Yeah, decently confident. Romney fended off five different anti-Romneys in 2012; Gingrich in particular hit a chord similar to trump's. There are easy responses to calling trump weak that weren't tried out over the summer that Romney would have brought out instantly. It wouldn't have prevented trump's rise, but unlike Bush, Romney would've kept the 20% he would've gone in with. But it would've been a geographically different 20%; stronger in parts of the West and Northeast while weaker in the South, that would've perfectly allowed Romney and Cruz to shut trump out in the early states and probably prevented the decisive trump delegate lead from ever emerging.

What happens next is unclear, to me. Romney seems limited on Super Tuesday to just MA and VT -- AK is difficult to judge (though I think it still votes Cruz) and VA seems 50/50 between him and trump. Cruz, meanwhile, would've done very well from Romney's comparative weakness among Southerners and social conservatives compared to Rubio, winning TX, OK, AK (as OTL), but also MN & AR, giving Cruz a solid lead in both delegates and states won coming out of Super Tuesday (Cruz would've had 7; Romney 4.5, depending on VA; trump 3.5, depending on VA). Cruz would've emerged as the distinct frontrunner by mid-March, especially since without Rubio in the race he would probably have swept all four states of Super Saturday (KS, KY, LA, ME).
1725  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Marist/NBC4 MD Poll: Clinton +22 Trump +12 on: April 13, 2016, 01:19:40 pm
And again - again - Cruz struggles to hit 30% at this stage. That's the pattern, but some people hacks want to rig a major convention for this guy? Come on.

First and foremost among these people is trump himself, by failing to contest state conventions and recruit delegate candidates around the country.
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