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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1701  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: French workers kidnap, ransom bosses on: January 06, 2014, 04:55:17 pm
Certainly hope rank-and-file union members who may not have had anything to do with this decision aren't punished, but those who ordered and/or enacted a literal kidnapping ought to be imprisoned for a long time.
1702  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Brown(OH)/Gillibrand vs. Christie/Martinez on: January 06, 2014, 03:54:16 pm
Something like this, in a neutral year:



Or about 271-267 Christie victory.
1703  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jim Gerlach retiring on: January 06, 2014, 03:13:30 pm
You were also lucky with the rounding, it's actually about 6.3 more R than the nation in 2012 and about 0.2 more R than the nation in 2008.

Meh, my basic point still stands.

Ok guys. I just talked to Phil and his message is to be patient. He is currently unavailable but as soon as he can he will post an expert analysis on Gerlach's retirement and his would-be successors.

Looking forward to it.

I wonder if he's planning on challenging Corbett in the primary...mwa ha ha ha ha ha ha...

Hope so, but I think if that were the case he'd've announced it by now.
1704  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jim Gerlach retiring on: January 06, 2014, 03:04:47 pm
D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.


Obviously you haven't the faintest idea how to calculate a district's PVI.
Then again, if only this was the first thing where you shoot your mouth without having the faintest idea what you're talking about.

We're talking about how far the district was from the country as a whole at the 2012 election. PVI measures only 2-party share and goes back to the last two elections; my measure is a bit cruder. I know how to calculate PVI.

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

I'm talking about how far it was from the country's result in 2012, not what the margin was or what the PVI is or any other measurement! This is not that hard, guys.
1705  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Liz Cheney dropping out on: January 06, 2014, 02:57:56 pm
Good riddance. I am very much anti-tea party, so - it's good...

As I understand it, it was Senator Enzi who tried to align himself with the Tea Party (getting the aid of Rand Paul and such), while Cheney ran, or tried to run, as someone associated with the establishment wing. So I'm not sure you should be celebrating in that case...
1706  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jim Gerlach retiring on: January 06, 2014, 02:56:49 pm
D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



Cook says it's R+2, not R+7.

It was dead even in 2008 (under the new boundaries; voted 53-46 Obama just like the country), but then R+7 in 2012 (51-48 Romney as the country was 51-47 Obama). Under the old boundaries, it was significantly more Obama but proceeded to elect Gerlach anyway. The district is clearly more Republican than Democratic, and getting to be more so as time goes on. I don't know where Cook is getting R+2 from, but I think it's a bit of an understatement.

I can tell you from personal experience that it's swingy, and that if it wasn't for Gerlach being a fighter and a weak Republican bench

Presumably you mean weak Democratic bench?

, this seat would be Democratic.

It's sort of a truism to say that 'if a seat had weaker Republicans and stronger Democrats, it would be more Democratic.' It doesn't, though.

At most this seat Leans R.

I have to respectfully disagree.

Someone like Sam Rohrer could very well blow this seat for Republicans. All I know is that he's staunchly conservative to the point where he attracted the ire of ThinkProgress.

Eh, House elections tend to be more nationalized nowadays. Republicans have blown Senate seats safer than this one repeatedly with bad candidates, but the only seats Democrats hold in the House more Republican than this one are entrenched incumbents, with the sole exception of Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona. I'll grant you that yes, if Republicans nominate someone too conservative for this district, it could become a Tossup, but without the field being set, I don't think Democrats can bank on that happening, as it's not so common in House races. Contingencies like that are what the 'Likely' rating is for.
1707  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why is it so hard to find election data for Alaska? on: January 06, 2014, 02:40:07 pm
Quote
Great maps, though. As I understand it, the northern parts of the state went McCain>>Obama, but they still vote Republican at the local/statewide level?

HD 40, the northernmost state house district, has a Democratic state house rep and voted narrowly for the Democrats in the 2010 gubernatorial race.  HD40 is where the oil is, but the people don't live near the oil.  Over half the registered voters in HD40 live in the borough seats of Barrow (North Slope Borough) and Kotzebue (Northwest Arctic Borough).  The rest live in small settlements in the bush.

Who was it that swung McCain>>Obama then? As I understand it, most of the Alaska Panhandle (places like Sitka) didn't change significantly between 2008 and 2012. Alaska, for which it's difficult to find data and which isn't a competitive state, is a place where I could very well be grossly misinformed about the electoral geography.
1708  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jim Gerlach retiring on: January 06, 2014, 02:36:47 pm
D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley

1709  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jim Gerlach retiring on: January 06, 2014, 01:39:14 pm
BTW: Is this Phil's CD ?

I think he's in Allyson Schwartz's PA-13 (which is also open) -- he was definitely there in the 2000s but redistricting might've moved him out.
1710  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jim Gerlach retiring on: January 06, 2014, 01:26:45 pm
D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R. The talk is that the most likely successor is former St. Rep. Curt Schroeder (who tried to run for this seat when Gerlach briefly retired in 2010).
1711  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why is it so hard to find election data for Alaska? on: January 06, 2014, 12:56:55 am
The one precinct Romney lost is Talkeetna, a quirky town that is basecamp for treks to Mount Everest.

That's a remarkable geographic feat Wink

Great maps, though. As I understand it, the northern parts of the state went McCain>>Obama, but they still vote Republican at the local/statewide level?
1712  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Official Atlas Community Poll: Do you support banning opebo? on: January 06, 2014, 12:45:38 am
No. And jmfcst should be brought back, for the same reason.
1713  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Napolitano: No clemency for Snowden on: January 05, 2014, 04:15:09 pm
Think Snowden will attend the Olympics?
I would not at all put it past Putin to invite him as a special guest and introduce him to President Obama. Putin likes to humiliate people. What better way to burn Obama than bring Snowden up to him in person?

Edit: Forgot Obama was skipping. Still, I hope Putin burns Napolitano (who IS attending) by doing the same thing. Or maybe wait until Obama visits Russia.

Oh, this would be the best thing ever Smiley
1714  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Opinion of "intellectual indie hack" style liberals on: January 05, 2014, 12:22:00 am
How is most of that consisting of negative connotations? Hell a majority of that applies even to myself.

'namedrop', 'Tumblr-style terms', 'don't give a s[inks] about...culture', 'love to think of themselves as superior', and so on and so forth. You're writing as if you have something against folks like these (which I don't think you do).
1715  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why is the congressional map in NYC so ugly? on: January 05, 2014, 12:02:01 am
Here was a version I put together as part of a statewide plan when the court was considering submissions. It maintains 3 black majority CDs, increases the number of Hispanic CDs over 50%, and has a an Asian plurality CD somewhat weaker. It avoids the Borough Park-Manhattan link.



VAPs for major groups:

QUEENS
CD 5 (Flushing) W 43.4%, A 33.9%
CD 6 (S Jamaica) B 50.4%
CD 7 (Corona) H 59.4%

BROOKLYN/STATEN ISLAND
CD 8 (Borough Park) W 55.7% A 23.4%
CD 9 (Staten Island) W 67.1%
CD 10 (East NY) W 23.6%, B 50.2%
CD 11 (Flatbush) W 30.6%, B 50.3%

MANHATTAN/BRONX
CD 12 (Manhattan) W 64.2%
CD 13 (Harlem) B 28.2%, H 52.1%
CD 14 (Triboro) W 54.1%, H 23.8%
CD 15 (South Bronx) B 29.3%, H 63.1%

Could I see the party numbers for your 8th district? Just out of curiosity.

The estimated PVIs for all the districts are at link in my post. In 2008 McCain won my CD 8 by 50.5% to 48.7%, but turnout was a very small 165K votes. The DRA partisan values (from some set of statewide elections) for that CD is D 56.4% - R 45.6%.

Thank you, that's very interesting.
1716  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Do You Agree With The US Census Bureau "Region Classifications" (See Map) on: January 05, 2014, 12:01:32 am
The South is too large and diverse in the Census classification. I also think that the others would do well to be divided, there's no good reason to restrict the data groupings to only four categories. For instance I use nine regions to subdivide the US for my own demographic analysis. If one then wants to regroup the states from more categories into fewer categories, that remains an option.




Interesting. I would think that West Virginia has more in common with Kentucky and Tennessee than New York and New Jersey, but that's just my outsider opinion. Other than that, the placement of everything on your map seems accurate to me.

I'd also shift Minnesota to the Great Lakes. It's a shame how impractical it is to divide states for this sort of thing; otherwise, these regions could be a great deal more coherent.
1717  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The GOP War on Women - The Megathread on: January 04, 2014, 11:54:28 pm

What else is suggested by posting a link like that in the thread entitled 'The GOP War on Women'? I'm not trying to be confrontational, I legitimately can't tell.
The guy is a batterer.  He beats his wife.  He's running as a Republican and trying to play the unapologetic for being a piece of sh**t card.

Phelps did something similar in Kansas Democratic primaries in the 1990s -- it didn't work then and it won't work now. Besides, I'm quite confident that he isn't about to get much support from other Republicans:

Quote
I would be surprised if he gets a sufficient number of Republicans in Maine to sign nomination papers to put him on the ballot, the GOP chairman added.

It's another example of self described Republicans treating women badly... and there is a lot of recent, valid precedent in that category.

Can't think of anyone who comes even close to this guy -- in fact the only person I can think of who 'treated women badly' is desJarlais (though you're welcome to correct me if there're more examples, I suppose). Certainly some Republicans have voiced some pretty horrible views (Akin comes to mind as a particularly egregious, prominent example), but I don't think many have actually assaulted women like this guy.

Quit defending wife beaters, Vosem.

How is comparing someone to Fred Phelps defense? I'm defending the Maine GOP, but surely you can tell it would be gross lying to call the Maine GOP 'wife-beaters'.

  And get rid of these people in your party.

If someone told me how, I'd go do it right now.

  We don't want Fred Phelps in our party.

We don't want Erick Bennett in our party either. Have you read the article?

  And the way we prove he's not really a Democrat is by treating LGBTs with respect and dignity and equity.

The thing is, in the US, self-identification is what determines what party you're in. If Phelps says he's a Democrat, he is. But, you're right in the broader sense that he is far out of step with the remainder of the party and has no chance of being nominated or elected to anything, ever. This guy is the same way (except less notorious).
1718  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Opinion of "intellectual indie hack" style liberals on: January 04, 2014, 11:44:29 pm
...I find it kind of amazing how despite how narrow of criteria this is, this still accurately describes sooooo many people I associate with and probably a majority of those applies to a majority of people I associate with as well. So obviously, Freedom Fighters.

HP politically, though tend to be rather likable/interesting people in person, imo. Voted HP. If you think of them as Freedom Fighters, why did you use words with such negative connotations to describe them?
1719  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Chinese folk outraged that the donkey meat they purchased is actually fox meat on: January 04, 2014, 11:35:43 pm
People in this thread who can't eat anything they haven't been having nonstop for the past decade Roll Eyes
1720  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The GOP War on Women - The Megathread on: January 04, 2014, 10:01:33 pm

What else is suggested by posting a link like that in the thread entitled 'The GOP War on Women'? I'm not trying to be confrontational, I legitimately can't tell.
1721  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The GOP War on Women - The Megathread on: January 04, 2014, 09:24:57 pm

This is like saying Fred Phelps is a Democrat...it's true on the surface, but it doesn't represent the party whatsoever.
1722  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Do you hate both sides on most issues? on: January 04, 2014, 06:40:15 pm
I don't buy the premise.

There are more than two sides to almost every issue.  And within any side there are opinions and perspectives that I respect, and those that I do not respect.  What I tend to hate about opinions, right or left is the following:

-Doesn't acknowledge empirical facts
-Doesn't know the nuances and details of the issue
-Doesn't acknowledge the weak-points in their argument or state their assumptions
-Can't back up their beliefs with a logical argument
-Generally making radical or extreme statements
-Ignorant of history and intellectual basis for their position

While bedstuy and I don't agree on many issues, I think he's captured the gist of my opinion on this one quite well Smiley -- except perhaps for his fifth point

I think I should explain what I mean.  I'm fine with someone having a radical or extreme point of view.  I just think that radical or audacious statements require extraordinary arguments or at least sensitivity to the fact that you're saying something audacious.

Ah, that's perfectly reasonable Smiley
1723  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: HI 2014 Senate D Primary on: January 04, 2014, 05:59:58 pm
Hanabusa; the difference between them is minimal, and I would feel better backing Inouye's legacy. Might've supported Schatz otherwise; he strikes me both as a nicer person and as perhaps marginally likelier to lose to Djou in the general election.
1724  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: REPUBLICANS ONLY: Do you believe GWB was a failure? on: January 04, 2014, 05:57:42 pm
(can you imagine one giant arc of civil war stretching from Syria to Kuwait?)

Unfortunately, it looks like we might not have to soon enough.
1725  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: KY-PPP: Republicans (except Cruz) slightly ahead of Hillary on: January 04, 2014, 05:56:31 pm
It's usually only right before elections occur that threads are train-wrecked quite like this. Congratulations, guys (I guess).
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