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1701  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Costa Rica election - February 2nd (TODAY) on: February 02, 2014, 05:13:22 pm
Looks like everyone forgot about these too.

The two main candidates are the PLN (neo-liberal/"social democrat") candidate and a left-wing candidate from a new party Broad Front.

"Oscar Arias acolytes" also works as a descriptor for the PLN, which is a bit of a dominant party in Costa Rica right now (akin to the Liberal Party in Canada in the 1990s; the old "other" party, the Unidad Socialcristiana, basically fell apart in 2006 (the 1993 analogue) and multiple parties have been vying to replace them, including -- wait for it -- Libertarians!

My support is for Guevara, of course, but I don't really think he'll make it into the runoff; the polls consistently overestimated him last time, and he isn't making it into the runoff in polling this time (though Costa Rica doesn't really have the infrastructure for polling and polling is therefore not too accurate). He, Solis, and Villalta are all serious possibilities for getting into the runoff with Araya (who'd probably win against any of them tbh); the polls show Villalta, but I kind of doubt it'll be him. Solis may benefit from people confusing him with Otton Solis, who was the Citizens' Action candidate 2002-2006-2010. But really in countries like Costa Rica it can be difficult to tell until the results actually come in.
1702  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Highest violent crime rates by state - guess who "wins" on: February 02, 2014, 10:12:34 am
Guess, pre-reading: Louisiana

EDIT: ...I don't think too many people will be able to guess it.
1703  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Am I the only one who thinks Romney will stage a comeback in 2016? on: February 02, 2014, 12:37:52 am
I don't think it's likely, but it's possible. If numerous possibilities (Christie/Paul/Walker) have removed themselves through scandal and in 2015 Republicans are looking for additions to the field, I think Romney would be sorely tempted by a draft movement, especially if it's backed up with good primary polling (like what happened before Perry entered the race in 2011); and if it goes to a brokered convention, I think Romney could be an uncontroversial compromise candidate. But I don't Romney is entering unless it unless he can plausibly say he had too for the good of the party.

Really, the meme that losers don't run a second time is one that exists because of a confluence of specific reasons. Going back to 1980 -- Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Bush, Dole, and McCain lost decisively (greater than 5% margin); Gore could have had the nomination sewn up if he'd still wanted to be President; and Kerry found himself outclassed by superior candidates in 2008 (Hillary/Obama). None of these apply to Romney if he doesn't want them to.
1704  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the preceding election on: February 02, 2014, 12:18:37 am
FE.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_gubernatorial_election,_1994
1705  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Boston Mayor does not support death penalty, but supports it for Boston bomber on: February 01, 2014, 11:20:59 pm
Massachusetts (and the other states without it) really ought to bring back the death penalty at the statewide level, too.

To what end?

To the end of not supporting murderers (and, while this wouldn't happen, in an ideal world perpetrators of other sufficiently severe crimes, such as child or serial rapists, who will never be rehabilitated) until the end of their lives and to the end of the dispensation of justice.
1706  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Boston Mayor does not support death penalty, but supports it for Boston bomber on: February 01, 2014, 10:56:17 pm
Massachusetts (and the other states without it) really ought to bring back the death penalty at the statewide level, too.
1707  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the preceding election on: February 01, 2014, 10:55:07 pm
Lean FE, but no strong opinion either way.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaraguan_general_election,_1990
1708  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: do we need stronger laws against shark finning on: February 01, 2014, 10:52:16 pm
What we need is regulation, so that sharks can survive as nature intended and so that cultures who consume sharkmeat can also be recognized.
1709  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: February 01, 2014, 04:45:30 pm

6/16
1710  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Bill Maher looking to influence a House race on: February 01, 2014, 04:39:14 pm
Colorado's Coffman is one of the most winnable seats for Democrats and Maher could guarantee that happens by using gun violence as the key issue.

I encourage Democrats to try to knock off Coffman by focusing on gun control as an issue.
1711  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Best non female VP GOP candidate on: February 01, 2014, 04:26:24 pm
Yeah, it depends who's on the top of the ticket. Rubio is probably the default answer, with Sandoval a strong second (unless he runs for the Senate). Portman would help someone who is a Governor from outside the Midwest (and preferably non-white or female); Martinez or Haley could be helped and pretty much no one else. Someone in the Senate (thinking of Rubio himself or Rand right now) who wants a Governor might legitimately want to pick Kasich/Snyder/Branstad; the last one in particular I think could be a breakout possibility in 2016. Walker may be too controversial, and I doubt Ryan would get it a second time -- when's the last time that's happened? (And really, all the arguments for Ryan also apply to Portman, who's really better by being from Ohio.)

But keep in mind sometimes candidates pick Veeps by considering things that aren't on the radar now, like personal friendships (which was why Romney picked Ryan).
1712  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Common political narratives that annoy you on: January 31, 2014, 11:22:23 pm
- That a party that controls half the legislature and most state governments, and came within 4% of controlling the executive, is somehow endangered

- The apartheid analogy; or that opposition to Israel is becoming a more popular position in the US

- That Republicans have problems attracting enough minorities/women

- That support for gun control is increasing, when in reality it's dropping remarkably precipitously

Denial is not just a river Egypt.........

It's also a river in South Africa, but I don't think that's what you meant Wink In any case, pretty much all the data is against the narrative, so I'll let you go do some research and have that speak for itself.

- That a party that controls half the legislature and most state governments, and came within 4% of controlling the executive, is somehow endangered

- The apartheid analogy; or that opposition to Israel is becoming a more popular position in the US

- That Republicans have problems attracting enough minorities/women

- That support for gun control is increasing, when in reality it's dropping remarkably precipitously

Yeah, Israel just denies citizenship to millions of people who reside on land it controls, requires them to have special permits to travel from one town to another and adheres to a national identity that effectively leaves out 30 percent of their population.

I'll interrupt you here to say that these are all characteristics of military occupation generally, which Israel did not invent. The three main differences between Israeli occupation of the West Bank and countless other modern occupations is that Israel is occupying what is basically terra nullis, as it has not been an integral part of a recognized state since the Ottoman Empire, being occupied by first Britain, then Jordan, then Israel; the presence of Israeli citizens who have moved to the occupied territory to live permanently leading to annexationist strains in politics; and the sheer duration of the occupation. While there has long been a majority of Israeli citizens in favor of ending the occupation, this is in practice difficult because of the presence of the settlers and because, even when tentative agreements on borders were reached (at Camp David in 2000), the Palestinians refused to budge without Israel changing its immigration policy. There is also the danger of an extremist government taking over, as in Gaza.

But it's totally not an apartheid state!

It is not. The apartheid state was not like a military occupation. Apartheid's two most prominent characteristics are forced internal movement of populations and the removal of citizenship from ethnic/racial groups who are not in power, neither of which have ever occurred in Israeli history (with the possible exception of the forced removal of settlers from Yamit and Gaza, but that was nowhere near the scale of the apartheid deportations and I think we can agree that, as it was done for the purpose of eventual peace with Israel's neighbors, it was justified).
1713  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: South Africa 2014 on: January 31, 2014, 10:59:47 pm
Could the WC or Gauteng see a result where the ANC and all-ANC-parties-sans-EF are both short of a majority, leaving Malema as a kingmaker?
1714  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Death Penalty for Adolf Hitler on: January 31, 2014, 04:09:46 pm
Конечно
1715  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Common political narratives that annoy you on: January 31, 2014, 04:05:09 pm
- That a party that controls half the legislature and most state governments, and came within 4% of controlling the executive, is somehow endangered

- The apartheid analogy; or that opposition to Israel is becoming a more popular position in the US

- That Republicans have problems attracting enough minorities/women

- That support for gun control is increasing, when in reality it's dropping remarkably precipitously
1716  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Waxman to retire on: January 31, 2014, 03:53:30 pm
Any chance we could get say four Democrats and two Republicans to run and then have the two Republicans face off against each other in the runoff of the jungle primary?

There was some excitement about this possibility on RRH, but the predominant thought was this could only happen if one of the Republicans is at least semi-prominent (a Bloomfield I run, or apparently Steve Cooley lives in this district, though he won't run).

If Bloomfield runs, could he be considered the favorite?
1717  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which state is the previous poster best suited to politicially and culturally? on: January 30, 2014, 11:51:40 pm
Rhode Island
1718  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Vermont on: January 30, 2014, 11:50:48 pm
FS for the weather, in spite of its terrible politics.
1719  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Deluge of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts III on: January 30, 2014, 11:49:42 pm
Sandra Fluke did more to prevent abortion than any individual person in American history
1720  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Terri Lynn Land potentially in hot water over SuperPac dealings on: January 30, 2014, 11:46:45 pm
D+1!
1721  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA-Rasmussen: Sen. Landrieu (D) down by 4 on: January 30, 2014, 01:35:11 pm
Like the NC poll, seems too sunny for Republicans -- most likely, this is roughly tied at 45-ish (and that is very dangerous for Landrieu).
1722  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Purple Strategies: Romney and Hillary ahead on: January 30, 2014, 01:09:11 pm
Way to instantly make your poll invalid by including Romney...though I am surprised he did so well.

I'm pretty sure as an actual former nominee Romney's name recognition is far higher than any actual potential 2016 candidate.
1723  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Congress considers eliminating public funding of party conventions on: January 30, 2014, 01:07:56 pm
Can't think of any reason to oppose this.
1724  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Branden Cordeiro on: January 30, 2014, 01:00:15 pm
New and not versed in forum lore, but seems like he'll make a great addition to the forum in time.
1725  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-Purple Strategies: Scott Brown tied with Jeanne Shaheen on: January 30, 2014, 12:43:40 pm
I wonder what kind of pressure Moran is applying.
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