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51  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Hide yo' wife, hide yo' kids - they kidnappin' errebody! on: July 07, 2014, 12:33:59 pm
The fact that people in this thread have no idea how to debate dead0man only shows one thing.
52  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: RISK Domination XI: Introduction on: July 07, 2014, 11:36:02 am
Wow...Hagrid's not concentrated much of anywhere. G'luck, buddy.
53  Forum Community / Forum Community / I have reached 5,000 posts on: July 06, 2014, 09:56:36 pm
This is my 5,000th post!
54  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of San Marino on: July 06, 2014, 09:55:41 pm
FC for:

-Being the first Christian country in the world.
-Being the oldest democratic country in the world.
-Having only six month terms for its two heads of state.
-Having a military unit with crossbows.
-Being the only case in Ingress history of the Resistance taking over an entire country.

How are they the first Christian country? Wouldn't that have been the Roman Empire?

San Marino was founded as a refuge for persecuted Christians during the Roman Empire.

Armenia converted to Christianity in 301 AD. San Marino, by coincidence, was founded the same year by a Christian from Croatia fleeing persecution, but at the time it was merely a small monastery (around which a community later grew), not an independent state. The Pope recognized the Most Serene Republic of San Marino in 1631; certainly they were de facto independent before that, but not in 301. Armenia indisputably was the first Christian state.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OK: 2014 Senatorial Republican Primary Election Result on: July 06, 2014, 12:51:11 pm
Clearly, winning the oklahoma pandle isn't everything, is it, T.W. Shannon?

56  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: what game of thrones character would the preceding poster be? on: July 06, 2014, 11:20:14 am
Robb Stark, but that's probably just 'cause I associate his signature with him Tongue
57  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Anybody up for another game of Risk? on: July 06, 2014, 10:43:54 am
Count me in.

...you're not on the player list, Oldies.

I look forward to watching this game unfold, and discovering who it is I shall beat in the next one Grin
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which seat is more likely to flip? on: July 05, 2014, 08:55:28 pm
I feel like there's a wide variety of possible outcomes in Iowa, while Colorado will basically be decided by the national environment. Voted Colorado since I think right now Braley is doing better than Udall, but I could see Iowa as one of just a few Republican pickups if Braley messes up while if Republicans have won Colorado, they won the Senate a few seats ago already.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Carly Fiorina (R-California) win a rematch in 2016 against Barbara Boxer? on: July 04, 2014, 10:32:46 am
No. 2010 was a great year, Fiorina was not a great candidate. She would do significantly worse; this is a race Republicans are almost certainly better off leaving alone.

Not a chance. The Democratic base loves Boxer. She's won reelection with double-digits every time and a presidential year would certainly be no exception.

I don't know if "double-digits every time" is accurate; she beat Bill Jones by 20 in 2004, and he had been elected statewide, but otherwise she beat Bruce Herschensohn by 4 in 1992, Matt Fong by 9 in 1998, and then Carly Fiorina by 9 in 2010. She's won by single-digits thrice and double-digits once.

In an absolutely perfect year, against an absolutely perfect candidate, Boxer absolutely could be vulnerable, but Republicans just have way more significant priorities in 2016 than throwing money here and hoping it sticks like they've been doing in the past.
60  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: what game of thrones character would the preceding poster be? on: July 03, 2014, 10:08:09 pm
I suppose Tyrion
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I think there is a candidate everyone is forgetting on: July 03, 2014, 10:06:36 pm
Jim Webb
62  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: So You Think You Can Moderate? - Nomination Round on: July 02, 2014, 10:46:25 pm
Seconding Keystone Phil and Sam Spade. Would second opebo but apparently that'll get discounted.
63  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ex-Gov. Gary Johnson named CEO of pot company on: July 02, 2014, 06:23:53 pm
If only he'd run for the open NM Senate seat in 2012...
64  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who is the best President, of these four? on: July 01, 2014, 10:59:33 pm
Difficult between Clinton and LBJ. Clinton presided over eight years of relatively little change, with the significant things being accomplished (like welfare reform) being fairly good but not earth-shattering, though to be fair his first two years were unfettered awful. LBJ presided over civil rights and the main activity period of the Vietnam War (sounds excellent) but was also the architect of the Great Society (boo). Went narrowly with Clinton; as a tiebreaker, LBJ beat Barry Goldwater, who would've been a fantastic President, while Clinton beat Bush Sr. and Dole, who were both nothing special. (And Perot, I suppose).
65  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the mod who "leaked" the info about Libertas' possible reinstatement on: July 01, 2014, 06:10:42 pm

So is Libby coming back or what?

Libertas is terrible of course, but that's no reason to ban him.
66  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: does dave leip know who you are? on: July 01, 2014, 06:09:44 pm
Strongly doubt it.
67  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Who will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? on: July 01, 2014, 06:05:25 pm
Colombia looks like it has the best shot to me (no pun intended). Germany's gotten a lot of hype, lots of it deserved, but it's getting to their heads.
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Would Kent Conrad have won reelection to the Senate in 2012? on: July 01, 2014, 02:35:51 pm
Yes, and he wouldn't've been seriously challenged; he received his last close race in 1986, and afterwards he survived 1994 without any scratches and he was still broadly popular. He retired because he wanted to, not because he felt threatened by Berg, who lost to a significantly weaker candidate (unlike Dorgan in 2010, who Hoeven was preparing to crush by double-digits, though that was more a case of Hoeven's superior popularity than any fault of Dorgan's).
69  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Roberts Court on: June 30, 2014, 07:28:55 pm
Not perfect, but definitely a Freedom Court overall. They have the benefit of looking good in comparison to the executive and legislative branches right now, as well.
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7 on: June 17, 2014, 08:12:44 am
A strongly socially conservative Republican (except for an immigration hardliner) won't be winning this district any time soon, Vosem.

I don't see one primarying DeMaio either Wink
71  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sage Garden on: June 16, 2014, 10:16:44 pm
Lots of cheering for urinary tract infections in this thread right now.

The idea that circumcision in the U.S. has "nothing to do with religion" is a deliberate, self-conscious lie. It only became public policy in the early 20th century because of religion. That most circumcisions performed now are done for secular reasons no more mitigates its origins in Abrahamism than does the fact that having Sunday off has become secularized remove it from its origin in Christianity.

This is like arguing that since Christmas is descended from pagan practices it's fundamentally a pagan celebration. That doesn't make sense. Yes, circumcision and taking Sundays off both originate from religion, and for some people both practices are justified religiously, but for the overwhelming majority of people in this country neither practice has much to do with religion at all.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MS-Chism: Cochran up 1 on: June 16, 2014, 01:51:56 pm
Still think McDaniel is favored but a Cochran win would be glorious.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7 on: June 15, 2014, 09:41:44 pm
1. Not understanding the difference between municipal elections and federal ones is an amateur mistake. Last cycle, Louise Slaughter was supposed to lose, because her opponent had won a local election by double digits, but instead, Slaughter won by double digits. Winning big locally does not guarantee that a candidate can win federally.

Louise Slaughter was never "supposed" to lose -- she was always favored; it was thought that Brooks might be able to take advantage of a Democratic meltdown if that occurred. NY-25 is a significantly more Democratic district than CA-52 (NY-25 voted Obama +20; CA-52 voted Obama +6); and Slaughter is a much more entrenched incumbent than Peters, having been first elected in 1986. Nevertheless, Brooks held her to her closest margin since 1992, and did generally credibly. Scott Peters is no Louise Slaughter.

2. CA-11 was still drawn for a Republican, seats with similar numbers in other states fell to Republicans in 2010. The other close contest, CA-20, still resulted in a Democratic hold.

It was, but demographic changes had negated that advantage by 2010. Seats with similar numbers did fall in other states, but seats with similar numbers were also held in other states -- McNerney happened to run a strong campaign, Harmer to some extent took victory for granted, and it was (just barely) enough. CA-20 was a very late-breaking contest that most Republicans didn't realize would be competitive until the last few weeks; Vidak was a no-namer at the time, though he's since parlayed his good performance then into the state legislature.

On a fair map, Democrats chances are even better of holding seats.

On the contrary, your 'fair map' has created a bucketload of marginal districts in a state where there used to be almost none. Both Democrats and Republicans will have to get used to having a lot of those marginal districts (gasp!) shift from party to party during elections. Living under a non-gerrymandered map doesn't make voters like the Democrats more -- in fact all but the most politically in-tune will never realize it.

3. You don't have to be so condescending, but if that's your bag, whatever.

That's rich.

Peters is a non-offensive incumbent and DeMaio isn't even a moderate, that does not suggest Lean Republican.

DeMaio is definitely moderate on social issues; he supports marriage equality (he's also gay) and medicinal marijuana. But that's beside the point -- CA-52 is a swing district where even a strongly conservative Republican could win in a good year; it would just be harder for them (to win and to hold it).

But, when the election results are in, we'll see who is correct.

I'm looking forward to it.
74  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What % of topics you started are polls? on: June 15, 2014, 02:32:26 pm
8/117 = 6.8%.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7 on: June 15, 2014, 10:26:46 am
DeMaio won this district by double-digits in 2012 running for another office; Peters just barely edged out his opponent, in spite of how good of a year it was for his party. Peters is easily the most vulnerable Democrat in Obama territory, and probably within the Top Five.

Democratic incumbents don't lose in California.

California spent the last decade under an incumbent-protection gerrymander; 1 incumbent lost total. Until 2012, you could've made the argument that Republican incumbents don't lose (and been just as invalid).

For example, we held CA-11 when it was a gerrymandered mess drawn for a Republican in 2010.

It was a failed dummymander that voted for Obama by 9 points. That you still came perilously close to losing.

This seat isn't like UT-4 or NC-7, it's not some heavily Republican bastion that a Democrat was just lucky to have won, it is an Obama seat and as a D+ PVI.

Your cute little belief that once Democrats have taken a marginal seat, it's theirs forever continues to be both highly entertaining yet a little concerning. This seat is probably Leans R; at best for Democrats it's a Tossup.
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