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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most Likely 269-269 Tie? on: July 07, 2014, 11:49:55 pm
Missouri would not go Democratic in a 50/50 election. Maybe if a favorite son was the nominee, but even then I tend to doubt it. The map in the previous post and Never's are both OK, though they require some sort of boost for Republicans in Wisconsin and Nevada respectively, so I guess they rely on Scott Walker/Paul Ryan and Brian Sandoval being the nominee. A Wisconsin candidate is likelier, making that map the most likely.

The easy answer is that a 269-269 map in 2016 is very doubtful. Last decade was the perfect chance for it, what with all the close elections and the presence of this simple, plausible scenario:



This is a narrow Republican victory map in the present, though. It's achievable in both 2008 and 2012 by universal swing to McCain or Romney. (For Romney, this was the minimal victory map; to win outright, McCain would've needed one more Obama state, the next closest one in 2008 being Iowa).
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I think there is a candidate everyone is forgetting on: July 07, 2014, 11:45:22 pm
Has Tom Wolf been mentioned yet?
53  Forum Community / Town Hall / Re: So Al is still a mod here? on: July 07, 2014, 09:57:59 pm
weird


Keep it
54  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you think Obama regrets ever having run for President? on: July 07, 2014, 06:51:47 pm
Someone ambitious and ruthless enough to win the Presidency would never regret getting elected to said office.

This.
55  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Hide yo' wife, hide yo' kids - they kidnappin' errebody! on: July 07, 2014, 12:33:59 pm
The fact that people in this thread have no idea how to debate dead0man only shows one thing.
56  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: RISK Domination XI: Introduction on: July 07, 2014, 11:36:02 am
Wow...Hagrid's not concentrated much of anywhere. G'luck, buddy.
57  Forum Community / Forum Community / I have reached 5,000 posts on: July 06, 2014, 09:56:36 pm
This is my 5,000th post!
58  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of San Marino on: July 06, 2014, 09:55:41 pm
FC for:

-Being the first Christian country in the world.
-Being the oldest democratic country in the world.
-Having only six month terms for its two heads of state.
-Having a military unit with crossbows.
-Being the only case in Ingress history of the Resistance taking over an entire country.

How are they the first Christian country? Wouldn't that have been the Roman Empire?

San Marino was founded as a refuge for persecuted Christians during the Roman Empire.

Armenia converted to Christianity in 301 AD. San Marino, by coincidence, was founded the same year by a Christian from Croatia fleeing persecution, but at the time it was merely a small monastery (around which a community later grew), not an independent state. The Pope recognized the Most Serene Republic of San Marino in 1631; certainly they were de facto independent before that, but not in 301. Armenia indisputably was the first Christian state.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OK: 2014 Senatorial Republican Primary Election Result on: July 06, 2014, 12:51:11 pm
Clearly, winning the oklahoma pandle isn't everything, is it, T.W. Shannon?

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2006&fips=40&f=0&off=5&elect=0
60  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: what game of thrones character would the preceding poster be? on: July 06, 2014, 11:20:14 am
Robb Stark, but that's probably just 'cause I associate his signature with him Tongue
61  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Anybody up for another game of Risk? on: July 06, 2014, 10:43:54 am
Count me in.

...you're not on the player list, Oldies.

I look forward to watching this game unfold, and discovering who it is I shall beat in the next one Grin
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which seat is more likely to flip? on: July 05, 2014, 08:55:28 pm
I feel like there's a wide variety of possible outcomes in Iowa, while Colorado will basically be decided by the national environment. Voted Colorado since I think right now Braley is doing better than Udall, but I could see Iowa as one of just a few Republican pickups if Braley messes up while if Republicans have won Colorado, they won the Senate a few seats ago already.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Carly Fiorina (R-California) win a rematch in 2016 against Barbara Boxer? on: July 04, 2014, 10:32:46 am
No. 2010 was a great year, Fiorina was not a great candidate. She would do significantly worse; this is a race Republicans are almost certainly better off leaving alone.

Not a chance. The Democratic base loves Boxer. She's won reelection with double-digits every time and a presidential year would certainly be no exception.

I don't know if "double-digits every time" is accurate; she beat Bill Jones by 20 in 2004, and he had been elected statewide, but otherwise she beat Bruce Herschensohn by 4 in 1992, Matt Fong by 9 in 1998, and then Carly Fiorina by 9 in 2010. She's won by single-digits thrice and double-digits once.

In an absolutely perfect year, against an absolutely perfect candidate, Boxer absolutely could be vulnerable, but Republicans just have way more significant priorities in 2016 than throwing money here and hoping it sticks like they've been doing in the past.
64  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: what game of thrones character would the preceding poster be? on: July 03, 2014, 10:08:09 pm
I suppose Tyrion
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I think there is a candidate everyone is forgetting on: July 03, 2014, 10:06:36 pm
Jim Webb
66  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: So You Think You Can Moderate? - Nomination Round on: July 02, 2014, 10:46:25 pm
Seconding Keystone Phil and Sam Spade. Would second opebo but apparently that'll get discounted.
67  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ex-Gov. Gary Johnson named CEO of pot company on: July 02, 2014, 06:23:53 pm
If only he'd run for the open NM Senate seat in 2012...
68  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who is the best President, of these four? on: July 01, 2014, 10:59:33 pm
Difficult between Clinton and LBJ. Clinton presided over eight years of relatively little change, with the significant things being accomplished (like welfare reform) being fairly good but not earth-shattering, though to be fair his first two years were unfettered awful. LBJ presided over civil rights and the main activity period of the Vietnam War (sounds excellent) but was also the architect of the Great Society (boo). Went narrowly with Clinton; as a tiebreaker, LBJ beat Barry Goldwater, who would've been a fantastic President, while Clinton beat Bush Sr. and Dole, who were both nothing special. (And Perot, I suppose).
69  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the mod who "leaked" the info about Libertas' possible reinstatement on: July 01, 2014, 06:10:42 pm
FF

So is Libby coming back or what?

Libertas is terrible of course, but that's no reason to ban him.
70  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: does dave leip know who you are? on: July 01, 2014, 06:09:44 pm
Strongly doubt it.
71  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Who will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? on: July 01, 2014, 06:05:25 pm
Colombia looks like it has the best shot to me (no pun intended). Germany's gotten a lot of hype, lots of it deserved, but it's getting to their heads.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Would Kent Conrad have won reelection to the Senate in 2012? on: July 01, 2014, 02:35:51 pm
Yes, and he wouldn't've been seriously challenged; he received his last close race in 1986, and afterwards he survived 1994 without any scratches and he was still broadly popular. He retired because he wanted to, not because he felt threatened by Berg, who lost to a significantly weaker candidate (unlike Dorgan in 2010, who Hoeven was preparing to crush by double-digits, though that was more a case of Hoeven's superior popularity than any fault of Dorgan's).
73  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Roberts Court on: June 30, 2014, 07:28:55 pm
Not perfect, but definitely a Freedom Court overall. They have the benefit of looking good in comparison to the executive and legislative branches right now, as well.
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7 on: June 17, 2014, 08:12:44 am
A strongly socially conservative Republican (except for an immigration hardliner) won't be winning this district any time soon, Vosem.

I don't see one primarying DeMaio either Wink
75  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sage Garden on: June 16, 2014, 10:16:44 pm
Lots of cheering for urinary tract infections in this thread right now.

The idea that circumcision in the U.S. has "nothing to do with religion" is a deliberate, self-conscious lie. It only became public policy in the early 20th century because of religion. That most circumcisions performed now are done for secular reasons no more mitigates its origins in Abrahamism than does the fact that having Sunday off has become secularized remove it from its origin in Christianity.

This is like arguing that since Christmas is descended from pagan practices it's fundamentally a pagan celebration. That doesn't make sense. Yes, circumcision and taking Sundays off both originate from religion, and for some people both practices are justified religiously, but for the overwhelming majority of people in this country neither practice has much to do with religion at all.
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