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October 07, 2015, 05:10:12 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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51  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which state do you live in? on: September 07, 2015, 09:12:40 pm
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Gov. LePage "very strongly" considering US Senate run in 2018 on: September 07, 2015, 08:20:29 pm
LePage is a stronger candidate than many here realize, but my real problem is that he would then become a Senate freshman at 70. King was elected in 2012 at 68 (and Strickland will be 75 if he wins in 2016), so Maine likes electing their old ex-Governors to the Senate, but that really doesn't leave any time for LePage to build up the seniority and experience to be an effective Senator and the record of old ex-Governors in Senate elections recently has not been spectacular.

Richard Bennett or Charlie Summers (or, indeed, Poliquin) would be preferable. 
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Lessig make it to the debates? on: September 06, 2015, 11:06:19 pm
If the standard is 1% in 3 national polls, I think Lessig can make it.
54  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Structure of the current Icelandic party system on: September 06, 2015, 10:27:55 pm
Awesomely enough, while we are still 2 years from an election, the Pirate Party is currently leading national polling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_parliamentary_election,_2017
55  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does your family know about John Kasich? on: September 04, 2015, 11:36:35 am
Well, we live in Ohio, so yes. My family are generally not fans of his Medicare-expanding ways.
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 02:56:06 pm
Switch the bonus and you get a centre-right majority of ND, Potami and Union of Centrists.

Isn't ND-Potami-PASOK much more workable and easier? I believe the Union of Centrists has a stated ambition of becoming SYRIZA's junior partner in a coalition.
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: September 02, 2015, 02:52:07 pm
More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

And on *28%* of the vote in 1984, John Turner got 40 seats.

Yeah, the thing about FPTP is that votes don't translate into seats in a predictable manner. Particularly in a country as inherently ramshackle (no offence) as Canada.

The closest three-way race in Canadian provincial elections (by popular vote) was Nova Scotia 2003, though the PCs won a clear majority of seats.

PC 36.3% Lib 31.5% NDP 31.0%
PC 30 Lib 11 NDP 11

PC-30 Lib-11 NDP-11 is actually the result of the NS 1999 election, where the PCs won the popular vote 39%-30%-30%. The result from 2003 is actually PC-25 NDP-15 Lib-12, so a minority government was won on those numbers.
58  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Notice that all Republican "rising stars" this century have been massive duds? on: September 01, 2015, 09:30:50 pm
It doesn't matter because the Republican Party of Hate is dead at the national level so state level offices are as far as they can "rise" anyway.

How's that control of Congress thing working out for y'all again?
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: GOP Gubernatorial Election Trend on: September 01, 2015, 09:26:06 pm
If we're talking the 2016/2018 cycle, Vermont is the best shot. If we're talking ever, then all of them eventually.
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: New Mexico Secretary of State charged with embezzlement, fraud, etc. on: September 01, 2015, 09:21:12 pm

Balderas on Friday charged Duran with 64 counts of embezzlement, fraud, money laundering, identify theft and other crimes. His investigators pointed to Christmastime 2014 as a period when Duran was reeling from overspending and debt, even as she appeared to be at her peak in terms of accomplishment and popularity. Withdrawals by Duran at casinos across the state dwarfed the annual income that she and her husband, Rosaleo “Leo” Barraza, 68, listed in tax returns.

In 2013, withdrawals totaling $147,000 were made at eight different casinos from bank accounts Duran controlled — $10,000 more than the couple’s adjusted gross income that year, according to the complaint. The couple’s income for 2014 was not immediately available, but that year their withdrawals at casinos soared to $282,806.

This actually stuns me.  She was the first Republican Secretary of State in New Mexico in something like 40 years.

And hence the only reason that Invisible Obama would ever post this story.

So we talk about what's happening in Bum, Nowhere all the time but for some reason posting major NM news is off limits and only for partisans? Duran was almost 100% going to be the pub nominee in 2018.

So who does this go to for the pubs in 2018, assuming she's guilty? There is another Pub statewide officer, after all (Public Comissionier Aubrey Dunn Jr., who beat an incumbent).

Jon Barela came very close to winning a congressional race in 2010, and has been Martinez' Economic Development Secretary since then (appointed post, not elected, but still). If Martinez is strong on economic issues, Barela seems like a very logical choice.
61  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What are your three proudest votes? on: September 01, 2015, 09:16:31 pm
Just candidates I've supported in my state since I've been politically aware (being too young to have cast any votes as yet):

1: John McCain for President, 2008
2: Josh Mandel for U.S. Senate, 2012
3: Eh, toughie. I suppose Portman in 2010
62  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Earl Cowan "Angry Old Guy" on: September 01, 2015, 03:11:40 pm
Hilarious person.
63  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House Republicans really don't like John Boehner on: September 01, 2015, 02:19:54 pm
And, lo and behold, John Boehner's Speakership did not last beyond a single day before the entire House was drowned in a flood of liquor and tears. Verily, Sidney Blumenthal is a prophet who commands an unparalleled understanding of men's minds.
64  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Question about congressional proceedings on: September 01, 2015, 02:17:24 pm
Let's say that Democrats gain a net of 5 Senate seats in 2016, and hold the Presidency (a fairly plausible scenario), but Heidi Heitkamp is elected Governor of North Dakota/Claire McCaskill is appointed Attorney General/for whatever reason some incumbent Democrat vacates their seat. Thus, the Senate stands at 50-49 R or 50-48 R, with some seats vacant. My basic question is -- is a majority of the entire Senate (51 seats or 50+VP) necessary to appoint the Senate Majority Leader, or just a majority of occupied Senate seats? If it is the first one, what happens when no one controls a majority of all Senate seats because of vacancies?
65  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Real ideology/Forum ideology on: August 28, 2015, 03:17:20 pm
Your definitions of 'forum liberal' and 'forum conservative' are kind of confused and muddled, and very open to interpretation; if you want useful data, BRTD, it might be better to track real-life political opinions with a single, specific forum issue (I recall that at some point around opebo's banning, there was a poll -- possibly yours -- that correlated real-life political stance with support/opposition to opebo's ban. I don't remember the final results). Like David, I mainly agree with Torie's post, though I'm not sure it was true during the bad old days of Inks and death points and the bannings of jmf and opebo.

I did vote the way you told me to; I tend to agree with you on "forum controversies", and since you defined yourself as a forum liberal I suppose I must be one as well.
66  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Serious question: When will the US start taking in asylum seekers ? on: August 28, 2015, 03:02:13 pm
It's a bad idea to be letting in immigrants who commit more than their fair share of crimes, have lower IQs, are drains on government resources, make neighborhoods unsafe, and are in every way a burden to our society.

In no way do they help us, they only harm us and cost us. Yet people like you want to welcome them in.

America has throughout its history had different levels of immigration. We're about due for a period of cutting it off completely and trying our best to assimilate the people we have here, lest our country be torn apart in a hundred directions by all the different groups of the world fighting over imposing their norms on us and taking our resources for themselves.

You make some unpopular but pertinent points, but please do not repeat this "ethnic IQ variation" claptrap.

When you agree with racists you have to come to terms with the fact that you deal with racists. If you're a white nationalist, then embrace it.


Republicans will always be called "racist", "sexist", bigot by liberals. Nothing you can do, distancing yourself from Trump or me, marrying a black woman and living in a black area, having black friends, nothing will guard you from cries of "racist" "bigot" "sexist" "homophobe".

Simfan is black.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 28, 2015, 02:53:28 pm
Did the NDP ever have a chance in Quebec after the 1968 election and before the 1988 election?  The only candidate I know of who did even remotely well in Quebec was Jean Paul Harney (or John Harney as he was called in Ontario) in the 1984 election when he got nearly 20% of the vote in Gaspe in 1984.

Duncan Graham almost beat a Socred in 1972 in Compton.

Can you tell us any details about that campaign, DC? Because it seems like a very weird result. The NDP got 3% in the riding in 1968, then ran Graham in 1972, got 29%, then ran Graham again in 1974 and fell back to 3%. Why did Graham have the singular good performance?
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 (well, maybe...) on: August 27, 2015, 02:37:54 pm
For what it's worth, one poll has the following results :

Syriza 24
ND 22
XA 6
Potami 5.5
Pasok, KKE, LAE 4.5
EK 4
Anel 3.5
Others 5

That would put Syriza around 110-115 seats, not anywhere near a majority, and in need for probably 2, possibly 3, coalition partners, if we exclude ND.

Is there any possibility that--God forbid--ND could be the plurality party?

Well, this is the only poll conducted after the election call. SYRIZA is barely leading ND, by single digits, and the rumor on AH.com is that Zoe Konstantopoulou and fmr. Finance Minister Varoufakis are planning to break off of SYRIZA to form yet another breakaway group (unconnected with LAE). ND has a shot to win at the moment, but if SYRIZA really undergoes another round of defections ND may yet become favored.
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Have we missed Trump's peak? on: August 25, 2015, 03:52:30 pm
On the RCP polling average, Trump's polling surge can be dated to roughly July 12, 2015. On that date, he was polling at 6.5%, buried in the field; a week later, on July 19, he was barely behind Bush 15.5%-15.0%; and, after another week, he led Bush 18.2%-13.7%. Between July 12 and August 10 (on August 10, Trump polled at 24.3%), Trump either gained or stayed stable every single day except for August 2, when he fractionally declined.

But since August 10, we have seen more than two weeks of Trump either losing support or remaining flat in the average every single day. Granted, the loss is very slow and gradual; he is currently at a national 22.0%, having lost just 2.3%. Can it be said that the Donald has already hit his peak, and is in decline bar some game-changing event?
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Republican can Defeat Baldwin? on: August 23, 2015, 12:04:31 pm
Sean Duffy is the likeliest candidate and has a decent shot in a midterm.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Tester and Heitkamp in 2018 on: August 23, 2015, 12:03:20 pm
Cramer is a much stronger candidate than Berg and would be a challenge for Heitkamp to overcome in even a moderately Republican year -- 2012 was a perfect storm for her. Tester is more entrenched, and I agree that Zinke is not so strong of a candidate, though I think Zinke would probably triumph in a midterm under a Democratic President. Tim Fox would be a stronger candidate.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Vote no, but read the opening post on: August 23, 2015, 11:54:24 am
73  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Iran deal on: August 21, 2015, 12:54:53 am
Horrible Deal (not an Obama or P5+1 apologist)
74  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you offended by whites making racist comments about whites? on: August 20, 2015, 07:02:15 pm
I'm not particularly offended by it (being offended too easily is one of the problems with our culture), but it's definitely pretty dumb.
75  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of Bob Menendez on: August 20, 2015, 06:56:30 pm
Seems Horrible on a personal level (and voted Horrible Person), but I can't deny that his ideological views make the Senate Democratic caucus marginally nicer.
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