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May 26, 2015, 11:03:18 am
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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:01:04 pm
Putney:
54% Conservative
30% Labour
6% Liberal Democrat
5% Green (lost deposit, round up)
5% UKIP (likewise)

2010:
52% Conservative
28% Labour
17% Liberal Democrat
1% Green
1% BNP
1% UKIP
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 06:45:09 pm
Swindon North:
50% Conservative
28% Labour
15% UKIP
3% Green
3% Lib Dem (slightly behind Green)

2010 results:
45% Conservative
31% Labour
17% Lib Dem
4% UKIP
3% BNP
1% Green
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 06:24:15 pm
If Britain is divisible, Scotland must be divisible.

Everybody is divisible in principle, but Scotland may prove harder to divide than Britain.

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.

Are Tory voters voting ukip in safe lab seats for the hell of it?

No, but UKIP voters in Lab/Tory marginals are suspected to be backing the Tories rather than throwing their votes away. It'll be an interesting exercise, after this election, to plot margin vs. UKIP vote, to see if UKIP does better in noncompetitive seats (which I suspect is the case).
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:52:08 pm
I'm following The Daily Telegraph & The Guardian, because the American media sucks and wouldn't follow a foreign election if it's life depended on it.

The former says the SNP won every seat but one in Scotland. What is the one seat and what is the party that won it? It'd be hilarious if it was that one seat in the Southwest that the Tories already have. Its like Dumfries or something.

The safest non-SNP seat in Scotland is probably Orkney & Shetland, which are two islands far to Scotland's north that are absolutely safe for the Lib Dems, that basically stayed as a Liberal stronghold through their whole mid-20th century wilderness period.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:30:29 pm
The random far-left candidate in Washington & Sunderland West taking a selfie with the returning officer Cheesy
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:28:38 pm
What does "Lost deposit" mean?

Below 5%, or symbolically relegated to minor-party status in a certain constituency.

I never thought 500 quid was merely symbolic Smiley

When it happens on a massive scale in many constituencies, those 500 quid also start to add up, but usually when commentators are talking about parties losing deposits they're referring more to the loss of face than the loss of money
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:25:37 pm
What does "Lost deposit" mean?

Below 5%, or symbolically relegated to minor-party status in a certain constituency.
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:18:03 pm
538 had H&SW as 59% Labour, 22% Tories, 13% UKIP. The actual results were 55% Labour, 21% UKIP, 19% Tories. Of course the 538 model has been criticized by many here, and with good reason, but it reflects 'conventional wisdom' about this election pretty well. Now, UKIP won't be up 8% on polling numbers all around the country, but if they are in some places, that's a very good sign for them. I would feel encouraged right now if I was Farage.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:08:03 pm
I actually really like David Cameron as a person, but then I think Madeleine and I have noticed before that we have opposite opinions on this sort of thing.

To be fair we have opposite opinions on most things.

True, true. Still a pleasure to talk with you usually Smiley
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:04:12 pm
I actually really like David Cameron as a person, but then I think Madeleine and I have noticed before that we have opposite opinions on this sort of thing.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 04:49:55 pm
Is there a map where live results are being uploaded to?

Yes, there are many such, but in Britain partial results are never reported -- seats announce the total vote figures when they have counted all votes. Thus, so far all maps are blank.

The guy who did the exit poll says Lib Dems got about 8% nationally (like the polls said), but no incumbency advantage.

All 10 who won had an incumbency advantage, I'd imagine.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 04:29:44 pm
Even if the exit poll is wrong, it can't be that wrong. Cameron lives.

It can be that wrong; Oct 1974 is a classic example.

What happened then? I know about 1992, but I haven't heard of Oct 1974 as an exit polling snafu.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 04:12:02 pm
DUP on 8, so it seems likely Alliance has held on if the poll is right?

That or they lost Upper Bann, which was marginal in 2010.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 04:11:02 pm
So the seat projection is that SNP won each and every Scottish seat (isn't 58 seats all Scotland has?), and the LD's have 10 seats?

No, Scotland has 59. One seat resisted the onslaught.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 04:09:54 pm
SNP (58)
LibDems (10)

Did they even hold on to Orkney & Shetland at 10 seats? And if not, I wonder what one seat in Scotland refused to vote SNP.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 08:29:16 pm
Out of curiosity, who are some of the more interesting NDP/Wildrose candidates who won? I've heard that in terms of gender and ethnicity, the candidates were pretty diverse this time around, but I don't know much about them (besides Notley).
Some of may be just rumors, but Twitter and NP have given me this list of oddball NDPers:

A Chavismo supporter who defeated a PC incumbent by 40 points.
A CS university student.
A Poli Sci student.
Someone with Duck Dynasty-style facial hair. https://twitter.com/FailedProtostar/status/595780884076371969
An 18 year old
A barista
A yoga instructor
This young woman celebrating 420 on Facebook https://twitter.com/GlenStromquist/status/595969029556215809
The was a NPD candidate who was elected as MP from a riding in deepest Quebec, who said after her election that she had heard that the riding was a lovely place, and that she hoped to visit soon.  IIRC her French-language abilities did not go much past, "bon jour", but she had a French name.


From what I understand, she's actually a prime example that sometimes random people do make fine legislators and she's on track for reelection. Anyway, my beef with the freshman NDPers in Alberta (and the Quebec ones from 2011) isn't lack of experience as much as it is ideological views. I think I've said before that having a small number of 'non-career politicians' in a legislature might do more good than harm.

It's the social media generation. Better get used to politicians that have done silly things on the internet now. It's going to be commonplace in the future.

That's true, and I'm sure you could find some tasteless things in my social media (hell, in this Atlas account). And maybe it was just a harmless youthful phase, but chavismo for me is indefensible.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 06:38:20 pm
A Chavismo supporter who defeated a PC incumbent by 40 points.

So at least one confirmed HP.
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 03:30:08 pm
Very interested to see who "we're keeping the Foreign Ministry within the Likud" means. Silvan Shalom has held the post before, but that was under the Sharon government, which is no longer remembered fondly, and he seems past his prime in any case. Ze'ev Elkin and Tzachi Hanegbi have both been Deputy FM under Netanyahu; or, if he's going to promote one of the lesser ministers, Gilad Erdan, Yuval Steinitz, and Yisrael Katz are all possibilities. Whoever gets the position will become one of the frontrunners to replace Netanyahu whenever it is that Bibi chooses to leave.
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: May 06, 2015, 03:22:42 pm
Shall we wager how long it is before that one MK decides that they want another election?

The Tkuma group in the Jewish Home (2 MKs) said they would leave if Uri Ariel did not become Justice Minister. It looks like that position will go to Ayelet Shaked instead, so it may be very soon.

Of course, the flip-side of the coin, any 1 MK from any party who feels like having a cut of power can also join. There may be individual members of Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, or even Labour who can be swayed.
70  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Would you ever eat balut (developed, aborted duckling)? on: May 05, 2015, 11:54:37 pm
I actually think the pictures look delicious. Totally.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 05, 2015, 11:35:44 pm
GPW and Vermillion actually look rather nice; they seem like mirror images of each other. Now, GPS and Lesser Slave Lake should switch (since Barrhead is safely Wildrose); Greenway should switch with Shaw; Calgary-West with Calgary-Bow and the map will look fantastic. I would say to give Chestermere to the PCs but I really don't want them to have the extra seat, either.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 05, 2015, 11:00:03 pm
Was Ray Martin a candidate at this election? It'd be a shame if he finally stopped trying to come back the year the NDP made their great breakthrough.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 05, 2015, 10:51:36 pm
Lesser Slave Lake just switched from being Wildrose by 3 votes to being NDP by 7 votes. I wonder why Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock is so much more strongly Wildrose than all its neighbors.

Prentice wins reelection in his own riding. Sad
Don't worry. It will only prolong his suffering.

He'll probably resign within the year.
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 05, 2015, 10:43:21 pm
Meanwhile, in bizarro world, PCs regain the lead in Cardston-Taber-Warner, which went Wildrose by double-digits in 2012. Huh?


That riding went for them in 2008, too (only one)

I suppose it was quite sensible to anti-NDP arguments.

Wildrose are back up there now, though only 44%-36%, which is a pretty typical margin for the area.

Wildrose have also gained, from PC, the lead in the exurban Calgary seat of Chestermere-Rocky View, which totally changes the way the map around Calgary looks.

And, just as soon as I post this, Chestermere switches back to the PCs. Very narrow election there.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015 on: May 05, 2015, 10:39:07 pm
Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

Yeah, but SoCred and Farmers Union and whatever were basically regional parties. The PCs have the national Tory infrastructure to support them. Also, the PCs are a center-right party; in a two-way NDP-Wild Rose race, some of the PC vote is going to pick the NDP.

United Farmers and SoCred weren't regional parties (United Farmers formed government in Ontario in 1919, though they were always strongest in Alberta), and SoCred was strongest federally in Quebec and in BC at the state level by the second half of the 1960s (indeed, they were not dislodged in BC until the 1990s). I don't know that national Tory infrastructure will back up the PCs; keep in mind that the modern Conservative Party is descended from Reform more than from anyone else, and there're certainly lots of federal Conservatives -- especially in Alberta -- who would prefer to see Wildrose triumph. (As opposed to Confederation of Regions, which I mentioned earlier, which did incur some hostility from the federal right-wing establishment).

Wildrose, on the other hand, is a regional party. But western provincial right-wingers are going for that nowadays (see Saskatchewan Party and BC Liberals, though those are both significantly to Wildrose's left).

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

Not sure. There is some centrists in PC which voted PC this time, but will prefer NDP to WR.
Also, some electors are not ideological at all and will just vote for government (or against government).

Most PCs would probably prefer Wildrose to the NDP, though. That might not've been the case if we were dealing with a Liberal surge, but we're not. The NDP will gain pro-incumbent voters, but they will lose anti-incumbent voters, so we'll see how that turns out. (Historically, though, Alberta has been very pro-incumbent, but the incumbents have always been right-wing since, well, SoCred came into office).

Dat PC vote inefficiency tho... _o"

It seems a lot of people ended up casting a Conservative vote in places where it ultimately didn't matter.

NDP vote share should stabilise just below 40%. I'll be a Tender and say I told you so.

It seemed very efficient at first when the PCs were over 1/3 of the vote. The vote just isn't designed to be so low.

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

For the moment his sounds reasonable. However, one should take into account that next time NDP will no longer be an unknown quantity. If they are bad, they will fade. But if they do decently, they might get an incumbency advantage that would make them pretty difficult to dislodge.

What will make them very difficult to dislodge is the continuing Wildrose v. PC rivalry, which will probably still be a thing in 4 years. The SoCreds took 12 years to die after 1971. If the PCs take 12 years to die now, we could be in for 12 years of NDP government.
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