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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McLaughlin Predicts - Election 1986 on: August 22, 2016, 04:18:15 pm
This is from 1985, more than a year before the elections, so it makes sense that it really only vaguely resembles the end result -- they're assuming Laxalt and Mathias both run for reelection (neither did), they have Don Siegelman as Jeremiah Denton's opponent (Siegelman ended up dropping down to run for Attorney General, letting future floor-crosser Richard Shelby be the Democratic candidate), among other mistakes (they didn't anticipate a Wyche Fowler run at all, for instance). Other mentions of politicians that would be more prominent later on are also interesting (they suggest Mark Andrews was only vulnerable if Byron Dorgan ran against him -- Andrews ended up losing to the then-obscure state Tax Commissioner Kent Conrad, while Dorgan entered the Senate only six years later).
52  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What would Donald Trump say about the previous poster? on: August 22, 2016, 02:32:54 pm
Looks like another one of those liberal Democrats who have been ruining New York, folks -- but New York is going to vote for me, and we're going to Make America Great Again.
53  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Battle of the Hudson: Cuomo vs Christe on: August 22, 2016, 01:51:26 pm
Cuomo easily, huge FF.
54  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Racist Moderators on: August 22, 2016, 01:47:05 pm
Ag's point, for those of you who don't get it, is that "white" is a pretty arbitrary category whose definition can change pretty radically depending on both when and where you live.

On a different note, trying to explain the significance that nationality had in the Soviet Union (or even that "Jew" was generally seen as an ethnic rather than religious category) to Americans is always a weirdly difficult task, and I have no idea why ag resorted to using Soviet nationality to make his point when there're a million much better examples of his point closer to home that wouldn't require explanations of Soviet ID cards that Americans aren't generally familiar with.
55  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WaPo: FBI uncovered tens of thousands more emails that Clinton didn't disclose on: August 22, 2016, 12:39:13 pm
  • Who cares!
  • We allready knew!
  • Junk newspapers!
  • Sexism!
  • ...
Try harder...

He has been trying to make himself into a relevant troll.....sadly it isn't working.

Isn't "relevant troll" a tad oxymoronic?
56  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2016 House of Representative Elections on: August 21, 2016, 10:42:32 am
1.   Shua
2.   DFWLibertyLover
3.   ClarkKent
4.   JohanusCalvinusLibertas
5.   Classic Conservative
6.   NeverAgain
7.   Peebs
8.   Clyde1998
9.   Evergreen
10.   1184AZ
11.   Santander
12.   Abraham Washington
13.   Talleyrand
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Johnson win any counties? on: August 21, 2016, 10:31:15 am
He probably has a decent chance at carrying some rural county in UT if he's >20% there. Same with some random borough in AK.

As for coming in second somewhere without making it into the debates, excluding the random uninhabited Texas Panhandle counties, there's another county equivalent he has a very good chance at making second in -- Washington, DC.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Johnson Implodes... on: August 21, 2016, 10:08:20 am
Hasn't polling shown that, while many won't vote, significantly more choose Clinton than Trump? My second choice (as I think I've stated many times) is Clinton, not Trump.

More Republicans are  like Seriously and Santander not RINO Tom or Vosem.

I think that's a bit of a false dichotomy -- there tends to be a spectrum. Neither group is a majority, although the former is a good deal larger.

If the Republican Primary tells us anything...the former is about ~75% of the Republican voter base.

Nah. It tells us that the former is approximately 35% of the party. It tells us there's another faction (the types that were all for Carson in November, and supported Cruz in Iowa and through most of the primaries) that's around 25%, and that the RINO Tom/Vosem vote is maybe another 25% (keeping in mind that it was never united throughout the primary season). Another 15% are capable of swinging or don't seem to clearly fit into those three groups.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the three-way divide is a product of the 2016 presidential primary and was never clearly exhibited before, nor has it clearly shown itself in many congressional primaries (the Ellmers/Brannon/Holding race excepted, I guess). Considering the first group is rapidly shrinking demographically and doesn't have too many prominent politicians who adhere to it, I don't know how useful this sort of analysis is for the future.

When, people. When.

Unless a very prominent mistake is made (doubtful), or Trump surges into a near-tie (possible), I really doubt there'll be much deflation at all before Election Day, and even then I don't think it'll approach the levels seen by Nader 2000 in a close race (who fell from 5-7% to 3%).
59  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Previous Poster on: August 20, 2016, 11:41:43 pm
Seems like a good guy on the whole, even if I don't really understand how some aspects of his politics (such as distaste for Paul Ryan) fit in with the others
60  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Spark498 on: August 20, 2016, 11:40:53 pm
Voted HP but is mainly just annoying rather than actively malicious.
61  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of ag? on: August 20, 2016, 11:40:14 pm
Massive FF on the fundamental stuff even if we disagree a lot on the details. Hard to vote HP on a fellow Russoanglohispanophone Jew, as well.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How much would Rubio/Kasich/Walker be leading Hillary by? on: August 20, 2016, 06:02:36 pm
Walker would be about tied, or maybe very slightly ahead (0-2 points), Rubio would be up by a small but persistent margin (2-4 points), and Kasich would be up by a margin slightly smaller than Clinton's current margin (4-6 points).

The main question is how Walker (did he fix his campaign? perform well in primary debates?) or Kasich (did he tack hard right from the beginning?) framed their campaigns to be able to win, which matters a great deal because both of the primary campaigns they actually ran were unable to win. Rubio, in spite of how poorly he performed in real life, was clearly capable of winning had his real campaign not had terrible luck in early February, so the question matters a great deal less.
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Johnson Implodes... on: August 20, 2016, 05:41:37 pm
Hasn't polling shown that, while many won't vote, significantly more choose Clinton than Trump? My second choice (as I think I've stated many times) is Clinton, not Trump.

More Republicans are  like Seriously and Santander not RINO Tom or Vosem.

I think that's a bit of a false dichotomy -- there tends to be a spectrum. Neither group is a majority, although the former is a good deal larger.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can Darryl Glenn win a senate seat in CO? on: August 19, 2016, 07:12:14 pm
No. The more interesting question is whether he'd be able to primary Doug Lamborn in 2018.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state exit polls are you most looking forward to? on: August 19, 2016, 04:49:49 pm
Excited to see Johnson's percentages in the youth in the Rocky Mountain states, I guess.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Evan McMullin beat Darryl Castle? on: August 19, 2016, 04:47:51 pm
I don't know.  Who has the larger family?

Well, McMullin is Mormon...

I suppose if one has a decisive advantage in states where they have ballot access, that person will get more votes. Hard to say who.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Gary Johnson break 5% of the national vote? on: August 18, 2016, 02:01:12 pm
Since the start of May, there has been 1 poll that had Johnson under 5%, which was conducted on Independence Day. He would have to either sabotage his campaign somehow or collapse much more dramatically than third-party candidates usually collapse to score under 5%.
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary Clinton the Mitt Romney of 2016? on: August 18, 2016, 12:58:14 pm
I watched her speech in Ohio yesterday. It was so boring. I almost fell asleep. And the crowd was bored. Even the people behind her were unenthusiastic and bored to death.

I am telling you this: She is as boring as Al Gore if not more. And she is gonna lose because of that.


Boring is the fastest growing demographic in this country, my friend.

She still may lose, of course -- but that would not be the reason if she does.
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: South African local government elections - August 3, 2016 on: August 17, 2016, 03:37:36 pm
So the EFF will presumably be able to form a minority administration in Rustenburg? Also seems like rather significant news.
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Congressional Primaries on: August 16, 2016, 11:52:59 pm
Meh. My vote would've been for Christensen, but I'm not particularly upset to see Cheney get it, either. Mead is the frontrunner to become the next Senator in the event of Enzi retiring in 2020, correct? While Barrasso is likely to stay for another decade or more.
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which type of map would constitute a realignment this election? on: August 16, 2016, 11:26:11 pm
A realignment would have to remain aligned that way. I'm sure lots of people were talking about the Republicans finally breaking the Solid South in the election of 1928 -- but the nomination of Al Smith was not repeated (until such a candidate became acceptable 32 years later) and the South went right back to being solid for another two decades. A non-Trumpist being nominated in 2020 would render any 2016 realignment totally moot.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MA-SEN 2018: Schilling considering run against Warren on: August 16, 2016, 11:12:44 pm
I like this. He could suck up way more Trumpist money than Paul Nehlen ever did, keeping it from going to races where they are actually competitive. He should definitely run.
73  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which were the three most depressing elections (in the US) for you since 1992? on: August 16, 2016, 12:48:19 am
2016 stands head and shoulders above the rest, but 2008, the first election which I really noticed and when I was really invested in a candidate (John McCain, starting very early on in the primary season) was particularly depressing, even though I knew the result was coming. The other two are much more difficult to choose; 2006 was pretty bad in the sense that it led to the 2009-10 legislation, even though Bush-era Republican Congressional leadership, outside of Bill Frist, were pretty uniformly HPs (McConnell and Boehner were a massive improvement) and having them tossed out was fantastic for the party.

Third is a difficult choice between either 2012 (which, in addition to having ended up leading to Trump, also saw a candidate who in hindsight I realize was fantastic lose the Presidency and saw Republicans fumble control of the Senate for no particularly good reason at all) or 2000 (however much of a Bush supporter I might've been back then, for him to have become President while losing the popular vote massively tainted his Presidency and wasn't what any of his supporters might've wanted). Went with 2012 since I lived through it.
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary scrubs sexual assault pledge after allegations against Bill resurface on: August 15, 2016, 11:38:07 pm
Believing the alleged victim in all circumstances is superficially silly and meaningfully detrimental to justice, so good for Hillary.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Clinton win Madison County, AL? on: August 15, 2016, 10:13:05 pm
The margin seems to be a tad too much to overcome, especially in a state neither candidate is particularly contesting. Voted Trump, though I wouldn't be surprised by a massive swing here.
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