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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Beware of predictions (especially predictions about the future) on: May 21, 2016, 04:34:35 pm
What's the point of having a 2016 board then?
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump perform better or worse than Romney's 2012 result? on: May 21, 2016, 04:33:02 pm
Worse, because the total number of Republicans he causes to leave the party plus new voters who register to vote against him is greater than the total number of new voters who register to vote for him.

That's not true and you know it. First, the NeverTrump movement is all but dead. The former members of the said movement will eventually all join Trump, save for possibly a small number of holdouts.

The reason for this is simple: If Hillary is allowed to rein supreme and completely unchecked, akin to a medieval Queen, or a Russian Empress, the United States will quickly become Hell on Earth. The Republicans know this and Trump will keep reminding them of this simple fact for the next five and a half months till Election Day.

Vosem, just think of what kind of havoc Hillary will wreak on the Constitution and our way of life if she is allowed to name three or four justices.

Whatever Republicans think of Trump, they will not leave the party because there is nowhere else to go.  There is no MORE conservative option for them, and while most GOP Congressional candidates will endorse Trump, most of them will still be adhering to the positions that Trump differs with, and those Republicans have a vested interest in downballot GOP victories. 

Of course there is. They can go home.

Some percent will also vote for Johnson, and some percent for Hillary herself, but I think the number who simply don't vote, or undervote, will be greater.
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump turns "dangerous donald" around on Hillary on: May 21, 2016, 02:59:19 pm
I don't understand the question the poll asks
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary really in trouble? on: May 21, 2016, 02:58:42 pm
We have three polls all showing Georgia within 2-3 points and Arizona within 2 points and people think Hillary is in trouble?

Welcome to Atlas. They won't face reality until Election Night.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-23: Sanders endorses Canova on: May 21, 2016, 02:43:03 pm
lol, what a sore loser. Can't wait for DWS to give this guy a good thrashing.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump perform better or worse than Romney's 2012 result? on: May 21, 2016, 02:41:59 pm
Vosem, Trump has published a list of potential nominees for the Supreme Court. He is obviously way better than Hillary.

No force holds Trump to that list, and he's already demonstrated many times that his promises are trash.
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump perform better or worse than Romney's 2012 result? on: May 21, 2016, 01:58:08 pm
Worse, because the total number of Republicans he causes to leave the party plus new voters who register to vote against him is greater than the total number of new voters who register to vote for him.

That's not true and you know it. First, the NeverTrump movement is all but dead. The former members of the said movement will eventually all join Trump, save for possibly a small number of holdouts.

NeverTrump is limited in its appeal, for obvious reasons, but it's certainly not dead. Trump continues to get only in the mid-60s in Republican primaries; 30% of Republicans in national polling have an unfavorable view of him, and a poll that has him at over 80% of Republicans is either an outlier or just accounting for a drop in turnout among anti-Trump Republicans.

There's a solid fifth of the party that won't vote for Trump. Whatever he does. There's maybe another tenth that probably won't, and another tenth that probably will but can be convinced out of it.

Politicians, Ljube, are motivated mainly by reelection. So when you see large numbers of Republican politicians not endorse Trump, or endorse him very quietly or half-heartedly, you can see there's a fear of NeverTrump reprisals at the ballot box.

The reason for this is simple: If Hillary is allowed to rein supreme and completely unchecked, akin to a medieval Queen, or a Russian Empress, the United States will quickly become Hell on Earth. The Republicans know this and Trump will keep reminding them of this simple fact for the next five and a half months till Election Day.

Vosem, just think of what kind of havoc Hillary will wreak on the Constitution and our way of life if she is allowed to name three or four justices.

I basically agree with you here (3-4 justices is a stretch, though; she'll replace Scalia with Garland, and perhaps Breyer is waiting for her election to retire, and that's probably it), but the problem is that there's simply no evidence Trump will be any better, and some statements that suggest he'd be worse. Hillary will be reminding voters -- including Republicans -- of that fact right up to election day. That's why she'll win.

Better, because he'll win. TRUMP is a much better candidate and creates enthusiasm. Hillary stands for the establishment and business-as-usual. Something, that voters don't want this year.

A half-hearted vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one, I'm afraid. Romney had much bigger crowd sizes than Obama. He still lost.

Trump will get (is getting) bigger crowd sizes than Hillary. Of that there is no doubt. I'm afraid, however, that it doesn't matter much at all.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump perform better or worse than Romney's 2012 result? on: May 21, 2016, 01:15:40 pm
Worse, because the total number of Republicans he causes to leave the party plus new voters who register to vote against him is greater than the total number of new voters who register to vote for him.
59  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever specified what pronouns you prefer? on: May 21, 2016, 01:12:23 pm
On the internet, yes, obviously (for the record, I am male and prefer "he"). In real life, I've never had to. Didn't vote since in my interpretation of the question Yes would be 100%, which I don't think is what you're looking for.

A more interesting question might be asking whether it's ever been necessary to specify the pronunciation of your first and/or last name.
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN-2. Kline to retire. on: May 21, 2016, 12:52:40 pm
Cool how gradually this district went from barely on anyone's radar to a likelier Democratic pickup than not.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-PPP (2018): Flake in trouble? on: May 21, 2016, 12:50:44 pm
Kyrsten Sinema is really hot and has a lot of promise, but I don't think I'd advise her to run statewide in Arizona in a Clinton midterm.
62  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Non-Trump supporters, would be you fine with Trump as Prez as long as.... on: May 21, 2016, 12:49:10 pm
Hell no. That's probably the worst case scenario. I have far more trust in Paul Ryan than Nancy Pelosi, and I'd be much more comfortable with Clinton tempered by a red Congress.
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is more likable? on: May 21, 2016, 12:38:18 pm
Definitely more people find Trump likable than Hillary. Definitely more people (and by a greater margin) find Trump unlikable than Hillary. Answered Hillary since the net effect of "likability" in this election will help her, but the true answer here is kind of nuanced.

Vosem, try to keep your integrity. Don't let your hatred of Trump cloud your judgement. Don't join the Hilbot army that dominates this forum.


I don't intend to join any sort of Hillbot army (my hatred for Hillbot is maybe one notch below my hatred for Trump, and I have every intention of voting third-party), but you have to consider (in addition to Hillary having a better favorability ranking than Trump right now, period) that Hillary has had a positive favorability ranking in the past, which Trump has never had since he entered politics, which strongly suggests that Hillary is more likable than Trump (more people like her, and way more people have liked her).

I don't like Hillary, but it's hackishness to suggest that she's not overwhelmingly favored to win the election. Until the moment comes when the Trumpists realize their candidate is an underdog (or the landscape radically changes, I suppose), I'll probably end up on the side of the Hillbots in most arguments. But don't let it make you believe I'm one of them Tongue
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is more likable? on: May 21, 2016, 11:32:53 am
Definitely more people find Trump likable than Hillary. Definitely more people (and by a greater margin) find Trump unlikable than Hillary. Answered Hillary since the net effect of "likability" in this election will help her, but the true answer here is kind of nuanced.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who WILL BE the GOP nominee for President? on: May 19, 2016, 10:57:29 pm
The poll never specifies 2016, I guess. Many of these people still have a chance at being the nominee sometime down the road.
66  General Discussion / History / Re: Most underrated evil person in history? on: May 19, 2016, 10:32:01 pm
Bohdan Khmelnytsky, who attempted to wipe the Jews out from the Ukraine several centuries before Hitler did, at least counts as a possibility.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are Americans ready for Female-Female ticket (Hillary-Warren)? on: May 19, 2016, 09:57:09 pm
I doubt Warren wants it, I think a double-female ticket has a greater cost than reward, and I think Hillary's priorities with the VP candidate will be rewarding loyalty and attracting swing voters vis-a-vis Trump, not Sandernistas who will vote against Trump regardless of what else happens.
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In a Trump v. Clinton election, will Clinton swing back to being free trade? on: May 19, 2016, 09:52:39 pm
Gallup has had a majority of Americans supporting free trade since 2013, and the policy slowly picking up support from a nadir reached in 2008. (58% supporting, 34% against in 2016). I doubt she'll do it, because it probably repels more pro-Clinton anti-trade voters than attracting pro-Trump pro-trade people, but it's clear, but it would be very nice to have a candidate that agrees with the majority of the American public on this issue.

Despite all the fuss, the reality is that Americans didn't really give a sh*t about trade one way or the other until Trump brought it up. I remember polls showing like 60% of Americans didn't even have an opinion on TPP, but if you read Atlas you'd think it was the most important issue in the world to most people.

This is also true, but Gallup somehow push >90% of their respondents to respond to issue polling. It'd be pretty useless if they didn't, and it's very useful in replying to trolls/newbies who inevitably believe most Americans agree with them on everything.

By the way, I almost didn't recognize you with your new avatar. Going incognito? Tongue

Gotta avoid being deported to Russia when the Trumpists on this forum report me to our overlord Grin

In all seriousness, the Illinois part of my avatar has been an Artifact for a very long time (I haven't lived in Illinois since 2005), and I was always a Republican since I felt that party was the lesser of two evils, not out of any great attachment to the party. The nomination of Trump, and my subsequent decision that even Hillary f*king Clinton would be a superior President to him, felt like as good a time as any to make the switch to I-OH, which is much more truthful.
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: IF, Trump wins FL, OH, PA. THAN, what state puts him over the top? on: May 19, 2016, 09:46:53 pm
Pennsylvania, because he wins North Carolina before he wins Pennsylvania. But he ain't winning Florida or Pennsylvania, and Ohio is a very longshot.
70  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: In which country is there more respect for freedom? USA or Norway? on: May 19, 2016, 09:44:36 pm
Among government policies, probably America, though among the actual individual citizens I'm less confident.
71  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Deval Patrick on: May 19, 2016, 09:43:04 pm
Seems to be the good kind of Democrat. FF.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In a Trump v. Clinton election, will Clinton swing back to being free trade? on: May 19, 2016, 09:38:44 pm
Gallup has had a majority of Americans supporting free trade since 2013, and the policy slowly picking up support from a nadir reached in 2008. (58% supporting, 34% against in 2016). I doubt she'll do it, because it probably repels more pro-Clinton anti-trade voters than attracting pro-Trump pro-trade people, but it's clear, but it would be very nice to have a candidate that agrees with the majority of the American public on this issue.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Now that Trump has unified his party, he's surging on: May 19, 2016, 09:26:42 pm
Setting aside the argument of how likely Trump is to win in November, Trump very clearly has not unified the Republican party; there are still prominent Republicans refusing to support him and his scores among Republicans, across the nation, are consistently far lower than Hillary's scores with Democrats (even though Hillary hasn't won the primary yet she's still consolidated Democrats more than Trump has consolidated Republicans, in other words). However, Trump does fare respectably well against Hillary with independents.

If Trump does win, it'll be because he blows her out with independents. A historically low result among Republicans for the Republican nominee is close to baked in at this point.


Suggesting Trump is likelier to win the general election than people assume because he was assumed to be an unlikely primary winner but still triumphed is like assuming that if you flip a fair coin and it turns up heads, heads are a likelier result than tails from here on out. Past coin flips do not affect future ones, and a candidate defying expectations once doesn't make them likelier to do so again.

The Republican Party hasn't unified completely around its presumptive nominee yet. The process is progressing faster than I expected, but is still far from finished.

Vosem, don't expect any holdouts in the end.

Well, I expect at least the one holdout of me, which is one more than "any". I also think the "party unification" process, at least historically, has been extremely short; after Mitt Romney became the presumptive nominee on April 10, he hit a peak on April 18, just a week later. Trump has a lot more consolidation to do because of what an unusually poor standing he has in the party; his surge is slow-burning (Romney gained more in that week than Trump has since he clinched on May 3) but is still burning more than two weeks later. Shows the differences between campaigns, I guess.

Trump's surge is also comparatively unimpressive in other ways. He is still behind where he was for most of fall 2015. There are still supporters he lost through the primary process (who weren't originally anti-Trump, that is) he has yet to win back, even now.
 
The percentage of Republicans for Trump will actually be higher than Romney's, who was despised and rejected by the evangelicals.


Romney won white evangelicals against Obama 78-21 according to exit polling, and they were 26% of the electorate. (Thus, 20% of the electorate were Romney-supporting evangelicals). I am quite confident that the number of evangelicals that object to Trump is far greater than the number for Romney, but of course they'll be reluctant to vote for Hillary, so many may sit out. In any case, I highly doubt 20% of the electorate will be Trump-supporting evangelicals.

Evangelicals will not sit this one out.  They will vote for Trump. 

Evangelicals are intensely patriotic in a traditional way, and Trump's whole campaign appeals to this.  Furthermore, Trump will convince them all that he will appoint anti-Roe SCOTUS Justices, and that's enough for them.  John McCain was a divorced partier who went to strip clubs and Evangelicals flocked to him because of their sense of patriotism and their desire to see an anti-Roe SCOTUS.

First of all, "evangelicals are intensely patriotic in a traditional way" is a meaningless statement. Patriotism is not a measurable quantity and there's also no definable distinction (that I can perceive, at least) between traditional and modern patriotism. Secondly, Trump's record on social issues is incredibly imperfect. Enough evangelicals are turned off by Trump's flip-flopping on abortion (never an issue for McCain, and one that Romney headed off at the pass by being strongly identified with his religion) that it's very hard for me to imagine him doing better than Romney among them.

Some evangelicals of course are for Trump (there were plenty of states in the primary where he won pluralities among them, which isn't the case for other groups), but there's a firm group of NeverTrumpies among them that will likely sit the election out or protest vote.
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Point blank: Does Trump do better or worse than Romney amongst whites? on: May 19, 2016, 09:22:14 pm
Worse. More people who voted for Romney abstain or defect than Trump gains from previous non-voters.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: William Weld - Libertarian VP Candidate on: May 19, 2016, 05:37:22 pm
Eh, I think they should have chosen someone else, but Weld is an alright choice.

For Johnson and Trump, there is a powerful "who will say yes" aspect to the VP selection. Not just any politician would've agreed to Johnson, and many in the Republican Party would refuse to be Trump's VP. Only Clinton really has the ability to pick anyone from her party out.
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