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December 04, 2016, 03:29:23 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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51  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 13, 2016, 01:56:45 am
Bolton, Gingrich, and Corker are the names I hear most often for Secretary of State, but Zalmay Khalilzad would be a very interesting direction for Trump to head down, and I could see him doing that considering the obvious problems with all three of the common suggestions (excessive neoconservatism, an excessive desire to be higher-profile than the Trump, and Corker's various insider trading issues).
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-Sen: Who will be the Republican candidate against Joe Donnelly? on: November 13, 2016, 12:46:01 am
I'd appreciate a McIntosh run for Susan Brooks' House seat, but I think (echoing others upthread) this should be either Brooks or Greg Ballard. More likely the former.
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Guinta try again in 2018? on: November 13, 2016, 12:44:28 am
Considering Guinta barely won the primary and then lost the general even as Trump carried the CD, no. And I don't think he would win a primary without being the incumbent. The district should remain competitive, though.

Dold is finished too, I think; unless Trump is massively popular I think that's a district that's going to be unwinnable for Republicans for the foreseeable future. Schneider should get entrenched now; kinda like NC-7 and WV-3 in 2014, I think Dold's defeat this year was a finishing blow.
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Chelsea Clinton groomed for Congress run in NY17 on: November 13, 2016, 12:42:19 am
Unless Democrats think Chelsea will cost them a House seat, or Republicans think she would be an unusually effective House member for the Democratic agenda (and it seems that neither is the case), I don't understand why anyone is so upset over this.

Incidentally, if Trump is not very popular, I could see Chelsea getting very far using buyer's remorse.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Every Senate seat voted the same way their state voted for President on: November 13, 2016, 12:39:32 am
This is true, and quite impressive, but was still basically due to chance; there were pretty large distances between the performances of different candidates even in states that did vote for the same party (consider how far Trump ran ahead of Blunt, and how far Portman ran ahead of Trump), and you can find pretty impressive examples of split-ticketing at the House level. In Minnesota, 4/8 House districts not only split-ticketed, but voted for one presidential nominee by double-digits while electing a congressman of the other party (Erik Paulsen is in a very strong Clinton district, while Walz, Peterson, and Nolan are all in strong Trump districts; just eyeballing it, Walz and Peterson's districts are probably both just under T>60 (more like T=59 or so).

I think the number of Representatives in opposite-winner districts isn't going to be too different from 2012. Maybe a little bit less. Minnesota had some amazing split-ticketing, though, in both directions.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dark horse Democrats for 2020? on: November 11, 2016, 01:19:01 am
Mark Cuban. Tom Steyer.

John Hickenlooper. Jerry Brown.

Tom Perez. Joaquin Castro.

James Stavridis. Jen Psaki.

Kate Brown. Tammy Baldwin.

Lots of directions this could go.
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2020 Democratic Primary: Wide Open(NON-REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY) on: November 10, 2016, 07:26:09 pm
Voted for Ron Wyden.

I have no plans to support President Trump (no plans to not support him either; would depend on specific issues), but I certainly plan to vote in the 2020 Democratic primary if it is contested and the Republican primary is not. If this is the field, my vote is for Wyden, though I realistically don't think he'll run.

Most likely Booker will be the frontrunner and against most of the Democratic Party he could have my vote.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary run again? on: November 10, 2016, 07:19:00 pm
Too old and too blamed for the 2016 defeat. Gore came from behind to win the PV; Hillary came from ahead to lose the EV. The two events are viewed differently.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Could Campbell Win the LA-SEN Runoff? on: November 09, 2016, 07:25:03 am
Unlikely; Louisiana is a safely R state and Kennedy has crossover appeal to Democrats.
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate and U.S House Election Results OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 09, 2016, 05:10:49 am
As for NH-Sen, the very liberal college town of Keene is still out. It should be enough to flip the presidential race in NH to Clinton. Whether it can quite get Hassan over Ayotte remains to be seen, but this one should end up very, very close. Could be shades of 1974.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Senate and U.S House Election Results OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 09, 2016, 05:09:53 am
Curbelo winning by double-digits while Ros-Lehtinen was held to a narrow triumph is...not what was expected.

There's a lot to be said on this topic. Outside CA, it looks like the only uncalled House race is NE-2, where historically after the 70% marker is passed things don't shift a lot, so I'd assume Bacon wins. In CA, typically the necessary marker for Republicans to cross on E-Day is 52; if they get over 52, they can usually withstand the flow of post-E-Day votes, while Republicans under it usually don't. This points to a likely final result of no change for Republicans in CA, even though Denham and Issa would end up winning by less than a point.

Denham and Issa could still both lose if the flow is heavier than usual. I have no idea why the election hasn't been called for Knight in CA-25 yet.

One last intraparty race to be called -- in a massive upset, Nanette Barragan is leading Isadore Hall, in a majority-Hispanic-population, historically-majority-African-American-electorate district. I'd assume Barragan's voters to be lower-propensity Hispanics, so that her margin increases after E-Day.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the 2020 Democratic Primaries if Trump wins on: November 09, 2016, 04:57:13 am
Don't think Warren runs; she might start off pretty strong if she does.

Booker wins against a finalist Sanders-wing candidate. Merkley is a possibility, though I don't think he's interested in the Presidency. Hickenlooper makes sense as a choice for these guys, though he has a pro-fracking background that might not play too well. Perez, perhaps.

63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a non-Mormon McMullin supporter on: November 07, 2016, 08:06:23 pm
My roommate. A 19-year-old Hindu whose parents immigrated from Tamil Nadu, who acquired conservative views by mostly discussing politics with our pretty right-leaning group from my dorm last year and from his (also apparently pretty conservative) fraternity, who intended to vote for Trump until the Access Hollywood tape (supported Kasich in the primary, but then among my generation in this part of the country support for either Kasich or Sanders, broken down by party identification, was close to unanimous), and ruled out Clinton as too corrupt and Johnson as too (in his view) dumb for the position.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: UT: YouGov: Lee +46 on: November 07, 2016, 07:29:44 pm
I managed to confuse the last names of the two candidates (so I somehow ended up thinking first transgender candidate Misty Lee was running against Senator Mike Snow Tongue) and did a massive double-take when I saw the thread title and thought the sacrificial lamb was winning. Definitely in need of more sleep than I'm getting rn
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of this map from Electionprojection on: November 07, 2016, 03:59:29 pm
Kinda like 538, EP is making the mistake of putting all polls, even those of obviously horrible quality, in the average. His predictions from previous elections when polling was much better (esp in the 2004-2008 era) were very, very good.

EDIT: I have looked through the site, and saw in the blogs tab "conservative commentary", and "expressions of faith"

It is an openly strongly socially conservative Republican website. He was cheerleading for Cruz pretty heavily in the primary, and he's gone to Trump without a hitch, as most of these types have.

Hey Vosem, are you ready to replace Portman with Planet Hillary in 2 days? Wink

Trump needs to exceed 45%, correct? Still sticking to my end of the bet. Enjoy having Felito in your signature Cheesy
66  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Are Supreme Court rulings the 'law of the land'? on: November 07, 2016, 12:18:28 pm
Yes but that does not necessarily always make them final. The Supreme Court interprets all law, not just the Constitution, and non-constitutional law can be changed through the normal legislative process; constitutional amendment is a more difficult process but it has still been done. The Supreme Court also retains the ability to reverse its own decisions, as it has done many times in the past.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Interesting question about senators on: November 07, 2016, 01:31:43 am
The last time an incumbent Senator did not win the nomination of their party was Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, in 2012. 2016 has been very unusual in the lack of any serious challenges to incumbent Senators; in 2014, 4 Senators were held to single-digits by challengers, though all the incumbents narrowly won (Lamar Alexander, R-TN; Thad Cochran, R-MS; Pat Roberts, R-KS; and Brian Schatz, D-HI).

I think the OP asks about incumbent senators that ran for the presidential nomination of their party, lost that bid, and subsequently lost re-election to the Senate too.

Going from the start of the primary system in 1972, Senators who ran for President, then lost reelection in the next election:
Sen. Frank Church (D-ID); ran 1976, lost reelection 1980
Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT); ran 2004, lost primary reelection 2006, became independent and won reelection anyway (incomplete example)

Senators who won their next Senatorial reelection, but lost reelection eventually:
Sen. George McGovern (D-SD); ran 1972, reelected 1974, lost reelection 1980
Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN); ran 1996, reelected 2000, 2006, lost primary reelection 2012

Not a very common phenomenon.


Yes, but they did not lose reelection in the same year as their presidential run. Frank Church lost 4 years after he sought the nomination.

Nobody has done that in the history of the presidential primary.
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of this map from Electionprojection on: November 07, 2016, 01:26:13 am
Kinda like 538, EP is making the mistake of putting all polls, even those of obviously horrible quality, in the average. His predictions from previous elections when polling was much better (esp in the 2004-2008 era) were very, very good.

EDIT: I have looked through the site, and saw in the blogs tab "conservative commentary", and "expressions of faith"

It is an openly strongly socially conservative Republican website. He was cheerleading for Cruz pretty heavily in the primary, and he's gone to Trump without a hitch, as most of these types have.
69  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Where will you be watching the results on election night? on: November 06, 2016, 04:54:54 pm
In my dorm room or 24-hour library on-campus, trying probably unsuccessfully to focus on my 8-a.m. Wednesday midterm Sad
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Interesting question about senators on: November 06, 2016, 01:46:05 pm
The last time an incumbent Senator did not win the nomination of their party was Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, in 2012. 2016 has been very unusual in the lack of any serious challenges to incumbent Senators; in 2014, 4 Senators were held to single-digits by challengers, though all the incumbents narrowly won (Lamar Alexander, R-TN; Thad Cochran, R-MS; Pat Roberts, R-KS; and Brian Schatz, D-HI).

I think the OP asks about incumbent senators that ran for the presidential nomination of their party, lost that bid, and subsequently lost re-election to the Senate too.

Going from the start of the primary system in 1972, Senators who ran for President, then lost reelection in the next election:
Sen. Frank Church (D-ID); ran 1976, lost reelection 1980
Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT); ran 2004, lost primary reelection 2006, became independent and won reelection anyway (incomplete example)

Senators who won their next Senatorial reelection, but lost reelection eventually:
Sen. George McGovern (D-SD); ran 1972, reelected 1974, lost reelection 1980
Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN); ran 1996, reelected 2000, 2006, lost primary reelection 2012

Not a very common phenomenon.

71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Interesting question about senators on: November 06, 2016, 01:26:15 pm
The last time an incumbent Senator did not win the nomination of their party was Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, in 2012. 2016 has been very unusual in the lack of any serious challenges to incumbent Senators; in 2014, 4 Senators were held to single-digits by challengers, though all the incumbents narrowly won (Lamar Alexander, R-TN; Thad Cochran, R-MS; Pat Roberts, R-KS; and Brian Schatz, D-HI).
72  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Which major party is CURRENTLY the party of Patriotism? on: November 05, 2016, 12:40:13 pm
To some extent, the answer to this one is always "the incumbents", isn't it?
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Does Lisa Murkowski crack 50%? on: November 05, 2016, 12:39:08 pm
She has 3 serious-ish opponents who can be expected to hit double-digits (Metcalfe, Stock, and Miller), and another who can be expected to hit high single-digits (Giannoutsos), and 2 more no-names. Seems to me she'll be somewhere in the mid-40s, which will still be a very comfortable victory margin-wise.
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Clinton Dems try to primary Gabbard in 2018? on: November 05, 2016, 12:37:31 pm
Considering Hawaii was a very, very Sanders state and that Gabbard is very popular personally...no. I also think there's a decent chance Hirono will retire and Gabbard will be elected to the Senate, considering Hawaii likes to have Senators who'll stay in office forever.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A Trump win in Hamilton County, Ohio? on: November 05, 2016, 12:35:33 pm
Doubtful even if he's winning the state as a whole, imo. Voted "no", but not "never"; if he's winning here, he probably has a Bush-2004-level victory nationally.
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