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November 22, 2014, 09:24:26 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mark Udall almost pulled it out after all in CO on: November 12, 2014, 10:01:12 pm
^ Except no one is denying Gardner won.

This is a thread celebrating Gardner's margin declining by 0.4% and trying to spin Gardner's victory as somehow positive news for Colorado Democrats. No one is denying Gardner won, but there are some who are trying to deny that Democrats lost.
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sullivan Officially Wins on: November 12, 2014, 09:59:16 pm
Maybe Mark Begich could run against Rep. Don Young in 2016?  It might be a bit of a step down for him, but for him to run against (and hopefully defeat) that old fossil would be regarded as a public service.  

Doubt Begich would want that -- he knows the first really good Republican year would do away with him. If Young does lose at some point, which I strongly doubt, it'll have to be fantastic Democratic year. 2008 would've been it, but Palin saved Young.
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mark Udall almost pulled it out after all in CO on: November 12, 2014, 09:56:25 pm
Denial is the first stage of Grief, true. Y'all lost in Colorado.
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo had 'secret pact' with Long Island Republican Senators on: November 12, 2014, 09:54:06 pm
"Progressive" Mayor Wilhem

Luftwaffe Wilhem!
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 10, 2014, 10:44:57 pm
Another interesting juxtaposition: the seat the Republicans captured with the greatest margin is David Rouzer in NC-7. Next was Elise Stefanik in NY-21, which was also seen as a fairly good bet. Then came John Katko in NY-24, who was seen as a decided underdog nearly through the end of the contest.
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: All State Legislature Results Within on: November 10, 2014, 10:22:37 pm
Surrendering now to live to fight another day doesn't seem like Reid's style -- he is a believer in always winning.
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn: GOP House majority may now be unshakable for a generation on: November 10, 2014, 03:20:40 pm
I think it's clear that the 2007-2011 Democratic majority was a brief aberration (like the short-lived 1947-1949 and 1953-1955 Republican majorities that studded the long 1931-1995 Democratic majority).
58  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Were the Allies bad as the Nazis/Axis? on: November 10, 2014, 12:46:31 am
For once I'm in agreement with Snowstalker.
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A gross starting 2016 based on 2014 and 2012 results on: November 10, 2014, 12:41:04 am
I base this on rough guessing and nothing else but this is what 2016 seems to be to me




Flip Virginia and Nevada, and you have a fine Generic Midwestern R vs. Generic D map.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie: end political contribution limits on: November 10, 2014, 12:39:59 am
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is Next in Line? on: November 10, 2014, 12:38:41 am
Santorum came in second place to Romney, so he's technically "next in line", but the next in line doesn't always get it -- otherwise Buchanan would've been the nominee in 2000. Voted Santorum though.
62  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: RIP Phil Crane on: November 10, 2014, 12:27:52 am
May a noted FF rest in peace.
63  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Scandal in the German Bundestag during November 9 commemoration on: November 09, 2014, 02:41:50 pm
Biermann was not allowed to hold a "speech" in the Bundestag. Period.
Lammert did know that Biermann wouldn't follow the rules when he invited him on his own hook, since he has been known for decades for his anti-social behavior. I saw him on TV several times long time ago, and if one would encounter him in the pedestrian mall, they would consider him a boozy bum.

And to those who defend war hawk Biermann, you should inform yourselves about his views about the Iraq War, which he still holds.

And the Left Party, which is not the successor party of the SED, is the only faction in the Bundestag that never passed a anti-constitutional bill. If I were German I would certainly vote for that party.

You realize you're just making sound Biermann sound better, right?
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 07, 2014, 01:20:57 am
All Democratic incumbent reps will win in California. There are about 1.7 million ballots to be counted:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

Movement toward the Ds has actually already started, but just to keep hope alive, I want to note that in the primaries this year absentees generally helped Republican candidates. 1.7 mil comes out to ~32000 per district -- in practice, the two really questionable districts (CA-7 and CA-16) are in Central California, which has abysmally low turnout, so there's probably less outstanding in both. (All other CA ones, I think, it's clear the Democrat will win). That means Bera needs, at minimum, 53.4% of outstanding ballots to be for him just to have a shot -- an improvement of more than 4 points compared to current results, which already take some absentees into account. That's the best-case scenario. There's a shot, but I doubt it. Costa looks better -- counting the way I did for CA-7, he needs just 51.1%. But considering CA-16 is the single lowest-turnout district in all of California, the 'real' figure he needs may be somewhat higher. (32,000 ballots would be 30% of all votes in CA-16 -- a really implausibly high figure).

In short terms: McNerney/Brownley/Aguilar/Peters have all basically certainly won. Meanwhile, it can't be called, but I'd rather be Ose than Bera right now. In Costa/Tacherra, the history looks good for Costa (he came back from worse in terms of number-of-votes-margin against Vidak, though turnout was higher in 2010), but the math seems to me to look good for a Tacherra victory by the skin of his teeth. (As an aside, you ever gotten that feeling on a math test where you can't quite believe the answer you got but can't find any mistakes in your work either? That's what CA-16 looks like to me).

Barber has won in AZ, almost certainly, with stuff still out in Pima and McSally barely holding on. She might improve on the 2012 margin, but still. In upstate NY, late counting usually benefits Republicans, unlike in CA, and in 2010 Buerkle made up a margin bigger than the one Assini is down by now to beat Maffei, but this time turnout is not Republicans' friend: fewer people voted now, and it doesn't seem there's enough out there for Assini to win. But a victory for Assini remains conceivable.

My God, the eastern Arizona results are such outliers. And while most unexpected Democratic victories were due to either weak Republican candidates (Southerland/Terry/Domino come to mind) or underestimated turnout (MN-8), neither explanation seems to really hold up in Arizona. What happened to Tobin/McSally?
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So what happened in Colorado? on: November 07, 2014, 01:06:22 am
Why hasn't the Udall side made  a statement about the sudden toss up status of this race?

Because, whatever the ultimate margin might end up being, it's very clear that Udall has lost. The Udall side has dematerialized.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 07, 2014, 01:03:07 am
All Democrats just gained some tenths of percentage points in CA. Peters gained a lead against DeMaio -- probably on track for a win here. Shame DeMaio got swiftboated. Ose and Tacherra, for now, are still ahead.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / What happened in Arizona? on: November 07, 2014, 01:01:05 am
The wave totally missed the Arizona House races (except, oddly, for giving Grijalva a bit of a scare in AZ-3). Kirkpatrick and Sinema both improved compared to 2012 -- Sinema especially so -- and it looks like Barber may end up pulling this out with a margin about the same as in 2012. Upballot, AZ voted in a landslide for a Republican gubernatorial candidate who'd been damaged in a primary, and all Republican statewide candidates triumphed -- and I'm pretty sure, considering they mostly outperformed Romney, they won AZ-1 and AZ-2. How did Kirkpatrick and Barber (even if he loses) manage to swim against the tide? Why did Sinema do so much better?
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Jack Hatch Denies Branstad All-County Sweep on: November 06, 2014, 09:23:07 pm
Republicans won't ever be able to win Johnson County, making a full sweep impossible.

Of his six Senate elections, Chuck Grassley has won Johnson County 4/6 times, only losing it in 1980 (when there was actually a competitive race) and then 2010 (increased polarization?).
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mark Pryor won less counties than Blanche Lincoln on: November 06, 2014, 12:21:00 am
Fewer.
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 10:53:33 pm
Oddly enough, Tacherra is currently leading (1.0%) by more than DeMaio is (0.6%). Ose looks OK, but further pickup opportunities in CA (and NY-25 hundreds of miles away) still very unclear.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which epic failure was more amusing? on: November 05, 2014, 10:11:24 pm
The 2014 Democratic wave, since even when at its peak polls never showed Ds gaining more than 3 and still having a minority of governorships.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How safe is Emanuel Cleaver? on: November 05, 2014, 10:08:52 pm
I noticed this last night:

With 67% in, Van Hollen has upped his lead to 54-46. Unlike his neighbor Delaney, it looks like he will pull this one out.

EDIT: It's already been called, but Emanuel Cleaver has been held to a 51-45 margin by Jacob Turk -- I recall KCDem made a satirical thread about Cleaver being endangered.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats left in Romney States/Congressional Districts on: November 05, 2014, 09:54:51 pm
What about Senate Republicans in Obama states? This is why Republicans have a majority currently, since we most of the red state Dems this year.

Cory Gardner (CO)
Marco Rubio (FL)
Kelly Ayotte (NH)
Chuck Grassley (IA)
Joni Ernst (IA)
Mark Kirk (IL)
Susan Collins (ME)
Dean Heller (NV)
Rob Portman (OH)
Pat Toomey (PA)
Ron Johnson (WI)

What about House Republicans in Obama districts?
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 09:53:43 pm
Another interesting comparison: in 2012, Chris Collins barely beat Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul 51-49. In 2014, he beat his Democratic opponent (admittedly a Some Dude) 72-28.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 08:05:53 pm
Noticed something interesting about possible future GOP Congressman Mark Assini from NY-25: he was the Conservative Party nominee in neighboring NY-29 in 2004, when he garnered 6% of the vote.
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