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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: BREAKING: Rubio is Running Again! on: June 22, 2016, 11:37:22 am
Honestly, how certain are we that Murphy will even make it past Grayson to face Rubio in the general?
52  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: English on: June 21, 2016, 12:43:42 pm
Midwestern/Plains American English seems "standard" to me; my own English used to be very NYC (to the point that I was frequently asked if I was from the city), but that seems to have leveled off over the past 5 years. I've been living in the Cleveland area, but I'm not quite sure if I have a Great Lakes accent or not -- most likely I do and just fail to notice.
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats' ceiling in the 2016 House elections? on: June 21, 2016, 11:15:06 am
Ceiling is, I would say, around D+40. Most likely result is D+18 or thereabouts.
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict: Who will win in IL-10? on: June 20, 2016, 12:36:36 pm
Dold is obviously the stronger candidate by far, but I think the Trumpnami will be intense enough and this seat is Democratic enough that Schneider wins anyway. Dold comes back in 2018 and wins. Assuming 2020 is a decent Republican year, he wins that and gets entrenched, though I doubt his victory margin ever gets out of the single digits.
55  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Heath Shuler (D) vs. Susan Collins (R) - who would you support? on: June 19, 2016, 11:07:06 pm
Very easily Collins/Kirk.
56  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Joseph McCarthy on: June 19, 2016, 11:05:16 pm
Lean FF. The problem of communist infiltration into the American government and widespread spying was a very real one during WW2 and the immediate post-war period, and it needed attention brought to it; that said, the methods McCarthy used were unhelpful and frequently reprehensible. He could've been a great figure, and he ended up vilified purely because of his own mistakes and faults.
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: After Ohio, what is the easiest Midwestern state for Trump to flip? on: June 19, 2016, 05:42:45 pm
The correct answer, not offered for some reason, is probably Missouri. Of these, Iowa.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who do you currently plan on voting for in the 2016 General Election? on: June 18, 2016, 09:49:33 am
I currently plan on voting for Gary Johnson, but I will switch that to Hillary Clinton if certain circumstances come to pass.
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Must Win" Trump States on: June 17, 2016, 03:39:13 pm
I misinterpreted the thread title as meaning that the Trump campaign put out a statement that was nothing but the words "Must Win".
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the US had a parliament (w/ presidential candidates as party leaders) on: June 17, 2016, 09:35:46 am
We should have Australian-style ranked voting and give Trump the Pauline Hanson treatment.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015-2020 on: June 16, 2016, 07:55:13 pm
Tooting gave UKIP 5th place (behind the Greens and the Lib Dems) in the general election too. In fact, the order of the top five did not change at this election (even if the Labour margin over the Tories has quadrupled from 47-42 to 56-36).
62  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senator Murphy (D-CT) launches talking filibuster on gun control on: June 16, 2016, 04:57:02 pm
Wow, how comically awful. At least they're doing a talky filibuster, though.
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Johnson gain more than 20% of the vote in November? on: June 16, 2016, 12:38:07 pm
he'd have to have the active, energetic support of a significant portion of the republican establishment (by which i mean, like, actual governors and senators, not jokes like bill kristol or whoëver) - and even then, 20% is an incredibly optimistic target

This -- Trump has already shot himself in the foot so much that if the Johnson/Weld team is competent they'll be able to achieve this by fall (they're clearly already working on getting Mitt Romney on board, for instance). Even then, to eclipse 20% Hillary would have to actually get indicted, or somehow disqualified and fallen to Trump levels, so that a similar group of Democratic politicians starts to emerge as well.
64  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: UT Lt. Gov Gives a heartfelt apology to the LGBTQ community on: June 16, 2016, 12:02:37 pm
When will he be primaried?

...when he moves out of Utah.
65  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP congressman: Muslim Community Wants To “Kill Every Homosexual” In The U.S. on: June 16, 2016, 12:01:14 pm
Brooks is a raving madman who's only less famous than Gohmert because he hasn't been around as long.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA PPP Senate Grassley +7 on: June 16, 2016, 11:30:55 am
Still doubt he loses outright (unless another Justice dies and he holds up a second nominee, I guess), but it would be an amusing result if he wins by less than Feingold does.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6 on: June 15, 2016, 09:22:46 pm
Love that both candidates have lost support since February. Exactly what they deserve.
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV Congressional Races 2016 on: June 15, 2016, 08:22:27 pm
Much as I feel sympathy for Tarkanian, who really deserved to be the Republican Senate nominee in 2010, and would probably have become a Senator had he won the primary, he was clearly weaker than Roberson in this race. Shame he won, I guess.
69  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements (Sasse,Whitman,Romney,Baker, Beck,Kristol,Ridge...) on: June 15, 2016, 04:10:37 pm
In this interview (at about the ~4:20 mark) Mitch McConnell is asked if he thinks Donald Trump is fit to be president, and he dodges the question, simply saying that “The American people will decide” in November:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-utLdJo69U

So we have the Republican Speaker of the House endorsing the party’s presidential nominee, yet accusing him of making racist comments, and the Republican Senate Majority Leader endorsing the party’s presidential nominee, but not answering the question when asked if he’s actually fit to be president.

Seems like a healthy political party.

Trump and his supporters have completely hijacked the GOP, and there's no coming back.

As someone who has never supported a Democrat for president, and only a very small handful of times for other positions, I, for one, will never support a Republican for any position if they endorse Trump in this election. That is an immediate disqualifier for me, no matter the position, no matter the opponent; an endorsement for Trump today is an opposition vote from me in the future.

Trump's supporters haven't "hijacked" the GOP.  The GOP elites lived in this fantasy world where they could scare people with "higher taxes are coming" to vote for candidates who are all for wars, free trade, and liberal immigration policies.  The REAL Republican party spoke, and it's different from the positions papers of Rubio, Jeb!, and Cruz.

You realize those position papers got more votes than Trump, even counting in the votes Trump received when he was completely unopposed, right?

Position papers don't get votes.  Candidates do.  If those "position papers" were as reflective of the rank and file GOP as you assert, Trump would not have gotten the nomination.

Not true necessarily; Trump benefited from a very great deal of vote splitting. The candidates you list as having unpopular position papers collectively annihilated Trump.

  The GOP electorate would have coalesced around a candidate that adhered to those positions, just as the Democratic electorate would have coalesced around a candidate other than George Wallace in 1972, had Wallace not been shot.  (Wallace was the leading Democratic vote-getter in 1972 at the time he was shot.)

Just as the Democrats failed to coalesce around a single anti-Carter in 1976, they would have failed to coalesce around a single anti-Wallace in 1972. The differences between the different blocs were just too great. 

It was hardly unclear to the GOP electorate that Trump was not in sync with the low tax/free trade/neocon foreign policy mantras that the GOP has pushed for several decades now.

It was. Trump expressed support for classic Republican projects in debates and in his rallies -- his website proudly declared support for lower taxes and "bombing the sh**t" out of Middle Eastern enemies. Issue polling has shown the only issue on which Trump voters significantly differ from other Republicans is trade, and that that issue is not foremost for very many people.

Trump was chosen by people who liked his rhetoric, and by a liberal media that aided him by making him sound competent and tearing down his enemies.

  That they chose DONALD TRUMP by LARGE PLURALITIES, and that these pluralities grew as the field winnowed, is, to me, indisputable proof that the GOP rank and file is not in sync with its leadership.

First of all, "large pluralities" is an oxymoron. Second of all, they didn't. Trump got 33% in South Carolina and 35% in Wisconsin. He remained in the mid-30s from the start of the campaign in Iowa to about late April. Some polls had him in the mid-40s; some had him in the mid-20s. You can cite them if you wish, but they were outliers. His support only grew towards the end, when Cruz and Kasich demoralized their supporters by making moves seen as desperate. His favorability did not improve until after he actually received the nomination and enjoyed a (typical) post-winning bounce, which is now receding.
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Washington Examiner predicts Kirk will be re-elected on: June 15, 2016, 02:19:52 pm
I doubt it, but with all hope they're totally correct. Very unpredictable election year, God is great, and so on and so forth.
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: No guns for people on the terrorist watch list on: June 15, 2016, 02:05:35 pm
Time for LaPierre to stand up like he has so many times in the past and rescind the NRA's endorsement for Trump.

Anyway, horrible move, another reason for me to despise Trump, etc. etc.

Don't kid yourself

About what, the NRA endorsement getting rescinded? I doubt it'll happen but there's a chance if Trump sticks his foot deep enough in his throat
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do young voters resonate with Trump's divisive and racist rhetoric? Really? on: June 15, 2016, 01:53:54 pm
I hate how we just group young voters. I mean most of us are more socially liberal and fiscally conservative than the last generation, but there are still significant differences between how many young voters think


In what universe is this?
Huh


Young people are not more 'fiscally conservative' than their relatives partly because that's not a real thing and partly because they economic agenda of the GOP is the most unpopular facet among young people. You are projecting.
How is being fiscally conservative "not a real thing"?

Being fiscally conservative is a "real thing."

The idea that young people are fiscally conservative is not a "real thing."
no1 said young people are though

I said this and I'll insist on it; young voters (voters under 45 included, but discussing especially voters under 30) who vote Republican in the United States, with the possible exception of the Northeast, are primarily motivated by (what they see as) fiscal conservatism. By contrast, they tend to be less interventionist and less socially conservative than older Republicans.

The important qualifier, of course, is that most young voters don't vote Republican at all. But those who do are a fairly decent chunk, and like the Democrats the Republicans have some significant differences of opinion between the generations in their party.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of the Candidates - June 2016 on: June 15, 2016, 01:47:41 pm
Voted HP on all but Johnson, though I don't really know much about Castle. Maybe he's OK.
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: No guns for people on the terrorist watch list on: June 15, 2016, 01:45:26 pm
Time for LaPierre to stand up like he has so many times in the past and rescind the NRA's endorsement for Trump.

Anyway, horrible move, another reason for me to despise Trump, etc. etc.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: #NeverTrump GOP endorsements (Sasse,Whitman,Romney,Baker, Beck,Kristol,Ridge...) on: June 14, 2016, 11:06:28 pm
In this interview (at about the ~4:20 mark) Mitch McConnell is asked if he thinks Donald Trump is fit to be president, and he dodges the question, simply saying that “The American people will decide” in November:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-utLdJo69U

So we have the Republican Speaker of the House endorsing the party’s presidential nominee, yet accusing him of making racist comments, and the Republican Senate Majority Leader endorsing the party’s presidential nominee, but not answering the question when asked if he’s actually fit to be president.

Seems like a healthy political party.

Trump and his supporters have completely hijacked the GOP, and there's no coming back.

As someone who has never supported a Democrat for president, and only a very small handful of times for other positions, I, for one, will never support a Republican for any position if they endorse Trump in this election. That is an immediate disqualifier for me, no matter the position, no matter the opponent; an endorsement for Trump today is an opposition vote from me in the future.

Trump's supporters haven't "hijacked" the GOP.  The GOP elites lived in this fantasy world where they could scare people with "higher taxes are coming" to vote for candidates who are all for wars, free trade, and liberal immigration policies.  The REAL Republican party spoke, and it's different from the positions papers of Rubio, Jeb!, and Cruz.

You realize those position papers got more votes than Trump, even counting in the votes Trump received when he was completely unopposed, right?
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