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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread on: May 03, 2017, 01:25:52 am
Having spent my night looking at individual constituencies and coming up with predictions instead of sleeping (figures are comparison with 2015)...

Conservative 415 (+85)
Labour 146 (-86)
SNP 49 (-7)
Liberal Democrats 14 (+6)
Democratic Unionist 8 (-)
Sinn Fein 6 (+2)
Plaid Cymru 5 (+2)
Green 2 (+1)
Alliance 1 (+1)
SDLP 1 (-2)
Ulster Unionist 1 (-1)
Speaker 1 (-)
Sylvia Harmon 1 (-)
UKIP 0 (-1)

Labour fail to make any gains at all. Anywhere. Conservatives lose two (2) seats, both to the Liberal Democrats: Richmond Park (which was already done at a by-election) and Twickenham (their one real loss). Lib Dems lose Carshalton and Southport, but gain 8 other seats (including Richmond Park), mainly from Labour but also 2 from the Conservatives and 2 from the SNP. Only one Leave-voting seat, Norfolk North, is still held by the Lib Dems. The SNP makes a single pickup, in Edinburgh South, while losing 8 seats, 6 to the Conservatives. The Labour collapse in Wales sees Plaid Cymru gaining their strongest result ever, winning Rhondda (as they did in the Assembly election) along with Ynys Mon. The Green popular vote collapses nationwide, but they manage a gain off the Labour carcass in Bristol West. UKIP, too, collapses nationwide, but they have no such silver linings, as the Conservatives gain their seat of Clacton and win virtually all of UKIP's targets, such as Boston and Hartlepool (technically a gain from Labour).

The UUP lose both of their current seats, but gain Belfast South.
52  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do people who think Le Pen can "because Trump" understand math? on: May 01, 2017, 12:34:55 pm
Obama won Indiana, so this isn't too hard given the right circumstances.
And? Polls of Indiana leading up to the election had Obama and McCain about tied, so I'm not sure what you're getting at?
Polls can change in response to new events.

What is going to cause a 20 point swing in one week?

A major terrorist attack.

I mean, the only clear-cut example of one of these causing a large swing is Spain 2004, and that caused a 7-point swing to the left...

But even that was due to the right stepping in it and their PM-candidate conspiratorially declaring that it was perpetrated by Basque separatists instead of (as it clearly was) Islamists, rather than due to the attack itself. Without some very stupid mistake like that, terrorist attacks that happen during a campaign don't swing elections.
53  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP budget has language barring new walk construction on: April 30, 2017, 11:01:36 pm
No new walk construction? Dang, I always knew that the GOP was pro-car, but never to this extent.

The War on Pedestrians continues. Cry

Pedestrians just need to be loved.Pedestrians comprise the larger part of humanity. More than that: itsbetter part. Pedestrians created the world. It was they who built cities,erected multi-story buildings, laid sewage systems and water pipes, pavedthe streets, and illuminated them with electric lights. It was they whospreadcultureallovertheworld,inventedtheprintingprocess,concoctedgunpowder, cast bridges across rivers, deciphered Egyptian hieroglyphics,introducedthesafetyrazor,destroyedtheslavetrade,anddeterminedthatone hundred and fourteen tasty, nutritious dishes can be made from thesoybean.And then, when everything was ready, when our native planet had as-sumed a relatively well-appointed mien, the motorists appeared.Itmustbenotedthattheautomobilewasalsoinventedbypedestrians.But somehow, motorists immediately forgot about that. They began torun over the clever, meek pedestrians. The streets, created by pedestrians,were taken over by motorists. Roads grew twice as wide, while sidewalksnarrowed down to the width of a cigar band. Pedestrians began flatteningthemselves against the walls of buildings in alarm.
Pedestrians lead martyrs’ lives in the big city, where a sort of trans-portationalghettohasbeencreatedforthem.Theyareallowedtocrossthestreet only at crosswalks

in other words, only at the precise place wherestreettrafficisheaviest,andwherethethreadbywhichthepedestrian’slifeusually hangs is easiest to break.In our vast land, the ordinary automobile, intended by the pedestriantobeusedforthepeacefultransportofpeopleandgoods,hasassumedthethreateningshape of a fratricidalmissile. It takes out entire ranks of unionmembers, along with their families. If, every once in a while, a pedestriandoes manage to flit back out from beneath a car’s silver snout, he is finedby the police for breaking the rules of the street catechism.Onthewhole,thepedestrian’sauthorityhasbeenbadlyshaken.Thosewho gave the world people as splendid as Horace, Boyle and Mariotte,Lobachevsky, Gutenberg, Meyerhold, and Anatole France are now forcedto act in the most vulgar, affected manner, simply to remind everyone of their existence. Oh God (who, in point of fact, doesn’t exist), what haveyou brought the pedestrian to, God (who really and truly doesn’t exist).
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 30, 2017, 05:09:46 pm
So is John Stevens planning an independent ("Stop Brexit") candidacy in Kensington and releasing polling hoping that other parties stand aside for him, or hoping to get their voters to vote tactically? The Liberal Democrats are apparently not great fans of his since he left their party in 2010 to become an independent.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Elections and Politics 2017: Revenge of the Renzi on: April 30, 2017, 05:07:39 pm
Pledging to resign if the referendum were defeated seems like rather odd behavior if Renzi always intended to return to politics immediately. Reminds me of Farage's "resignation" after UK 2015.
56  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Rjjr77 on: April 30, 2017, 05:06:36 pm
Knows less about Republican primaries in Ohio than he thinks he does

Because I'm confident John Kasich can't win a republican primary in Ohio right now? I'm not the only Ohio poster who believes that. I think most do at this point

Because virtually all of your predictions and statements with regards to OHGOP primaries suggest that you think the electorate would be overwhelmingly majority-Republican, ignoring that usually very large numbers of independents vote in those primaries.

Kasich also has consistent net-positive approvals with both Republicans and independents in Ohio, along with one of the highest name recognition scores of any politician in the state (if not the highest, since he's the first Ohioan to run for President since John Glenn). I find it rather bizarre to think he wouldn't easily a win a state primary for pretty much any office.

Bizarre or not, Kasich would lose most statewide primaries.

To who? With what coalition and what funding?

To any credible Trumpist or tea-party flavored candidate, honestly.  Kasich bet his brand on Trump losing and he lost; Ohio Republicans don't like him outside of Franklin and *maybe* Delaware County.  Kasich's wing of the state party doesn't have too much pull these days as shown by the fact that even Josh Mandel (of all people) managed to muscle Tiberi and Stivers out of the primary without either congressman making so much as a formal announcement.  Of course, in a GE Kasich would lose due to an inevitable right-wing independent bid.

Virtually all Ohio polling conducted in 2016-17 has Kasich above water with Republicans and independents -- the most recent poll (a Morning Consult one) has him at 61/29 statewide, which is built largely off of Republicans and independents (I can assure you that Democrats are not fans of his education cuts). Portman, as establishment Republican as you can possibly get (a man so pro-free trade he was literally responsible for the passage of CAFTA) didn't even receive a primary challenger. There has been no successful tea-party flavored challenge at the House, Senate, or gubernatorial level at OH, and indeed I can only think of one successful open-seat win (for Warren Davidson). Who would this candidate be?

Mandel is opposed to the Kasich wing, sure, but he's no Trumpist or tea-partier; he's basically just a solid neoconservative, a la Tom Cotton. He voted for Rubio in the Ohio primary even though it was a two-way race between Kasich and Trump. (To wit, Mandel would get my vote in a Senate primary, and I don't think I'm a Trumpist or tea-partier at all). It's also pretty clear based on his fundraising (greater than Mandel's) that Tiberi is gearing up for a Senate run.

Stivers has been focused on House leadership ever since he was elected so it seems rather odd to fault him for not running for statewide office.
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 30, 2017, 04:11:39 pm
How good are Paul Nuttall's chances of winning in the Boston constituency?

(I'm guessing next to none, but I want to know what you guys say)

The fact that UKIP seems to have lost about half their support from 2015 directly to the Conservatives (if not more), and that in 2015 they were 10 points behind here, suggests that it's unlikely. It's as good a place as any to make a last stand, though -- at 76% Leave, it is the most Leave constituency in the nation.

I don't think UKIP is necessary dead politically; there'll always be an audience for a right-wing protest party and they'll probably surge again if a Breenter government ever comes to power, which is what I suspect will happen once the Conservatives lose (once Labor does lose their heavily-Leave northern seats it'd be illogical for them not to adopt that plank unless they continue to be led by Corbynistas, and the Lib Dems are pretty much already there). But they're going to take a beating this time around because everything they've spent the last decade calling for has been adopted by a popular Conservative government, several of their most prominent names have abandoned them, and they're leader isn't as well-known or effective as Farage was.
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-27: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen to retire from Congress on: April 30, 2017, 04:02:58 pm
So who's going to run in this seat for the Democrats? Annette Taddeo was their candidate here in 2008, when she was crushed by IRL, and she lost the neighboring FL-26 primary in 2016 (even though she lives in this district) even though she was strongly supported by the DCCC. That's someone the Democrats have been wanting to promote for a long time, and this race would be very logical for her. Another very logical name would be state Senator Jose Javier Rodriguez, who represents most of this area in the state Senate, and narrowly knocked off the incumbent Republican by 3 points in 2016 (say what you will about Trump's success nationwide, or even in Florida, the predicted Democratic wave did hit here). IRL's 2016 opponent, who came fairly close, Scott Fuhrman, is already running, but he was a first-time candidate in 2016 and he's not Hispanic, so he's not likely to be a primary winner.

Any other obvious possibilities?
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: April 30, 2017, 01:03:31 pm
Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

True, but counterpoint: Clinton was careful not to do anything too stupid to blow it, to a fault maybe...but the scales were tipping back and forth until Comeyghazi flipped it.

Macron on the other hand has blown his lead a bit, making all sorts of rookie mistakes against someone more seasoned.
And he's still up by around 20 points.

It's a high ceiling for sure, but we haven't gotten to the debate and there's still plenty of time for Le Pen to clean house and/or Macron continuously blow it. On the other hand Le Pen could fail to clean house and Macron could grow into things.

Given how 60% of these  recent far-rights vs everyone else have gone (Brexit/U.S./Iceland vs Austria and Netherlands), the former seems likely to happen than the latter.

The far-right didn't win the 2016 Icelandic parliamentary elections. Maybe you mean another country? Anyway, I still don't see how Le Pen wins this unless there is a major terror attack + a major Macron scandal/gaffe. Fillon was plagued by scandals, his program was rather unpopular but he never dropped below 53% against Le Pen.

Fair enough, Iceland was a weird situation, and I didn't follow that one too closely. But I do remember the Centrist party got dumped, the Left as a whole faltered despite leading for most of the way, and the Right pulled through thanks to a splinter party [mixed up the reason for the splinter party to exist though].

I don't think she'll win it as things are, but I don't think it's gonna be a curb-stomper either.

Iceland if anything was a reverse example -- a populist (more left-populist than NF-types, but still) party had led the polls for two years before suddenly collapsing during the campaign and coming in third, with the traditional "mainstream right" party winning and a different establishment party (the traditionally small Greens) coming in second.
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-SEN 2018: More little-known Democrats declare candidacy on: April 30, 2017, 01:01:04 pm
Good news for Republicans, most likely, since it decreases the odds of a Democrat making it to the second round against Feinstein, depressing R turnout, and worsening the situation for all those vulnerable Orange Countiers.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-27: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen to retire from Congress on: April 30, 2017, 01:00:13 pm
IRL's compassion for transgendered people was only matched by her zealously rabid defense of Israel.

What every Congressman should strive for Cheesy

And, yeah, considering this district narrowly voted for Murphy over Rubio, voted for Hillary by 20 points (rather more than the 15-point margin by which Trump won MN-1), reduced IRL to her first single-digit win in 2016 since the 1980s, is increasingly becoming other kinds of Hispanic besides Cuban, and will be fought in a Trump midterm...it's really hard to see Republicans holding this. Likely D, maybe, to take into account the strength of the Dade machine, but even they can't work miracles.

Quote
Al Weaver‏Verified account @alweaver22  15m15 minutes ago
More
Per source, Carlos Lopez Cantera, Fla LG, is considering run for FL-27. Lives in district. Ran for FLSen last yr befor Rubio jumped back in

Crist/ATG carried this seat against Scott/CLC by 7 points in the 2014 environment, which doesn't make me optimistic. But CLC has a long background in local politics here, and held down a pretty unfavorable state House seat in Miami in the 2000s-era. We could definitely do worse.
62  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How Big is Your Metro Area? on: April 29, 2017, 01:20:44 pm
The Columbus OH metropolitan area where I currently live has a population of 2.02 million.

The New York City metropolitan area where I grew up has a much larger population of 23.72 million
63  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Rjjr77 on: April 29, 2017, 01:16:02 pm
Knows less about Republican primaries in Ohio than he thinks he does

Because I'm confident John Kasich can't win a republican primary in Ohio right now? I'm not the only Ohio poster who believes that. I think most do at this point

Because virtually all of your predictions and statements with regards to OHGOP primaries suggest that you think the electorate would be overwhelmingly majority-Republican, ignoring that usually very large numbers of independents vote in those primaries.

Kasich also has consistent net-positive approvals with both Republicans and independents in Ohio, along with one of the highest name recognition scores of any politician in the state (if not the highest, since he's the first Ohioan to run for President since John Glenn). I find it rather bizarre to think he wouldn't easily a win a state primary for pretty much any office.

Bizarre or not, Kasich would lose most statewide primaries.

To who? With what coalition and what funding?
64  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Iraq War on: April 29, 2017, 01:14:29 pm
A massive mistake that happened as a result of faulty intelligence and led to long-term instability in the region, but it's still difficult to declare the conflict that toppled the Saddam regime to have been anything other than a Freedom War. Which is how I voted.
65  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Vosem: Ask me anything on: April 29, 2017, 01:12:50 pm
Ah, that makes sense. I usually bash the knuckleheads/idiots on twitter and facebook for than on here. It's admittedly fun to bash those type of politicos haha.



Definitely Smiley

Why is your name Vosem and not Sem or Devyat*?

*Not sure what the best way to transliterate that one is.

My birthday is August 8 (8/8), so I've always seen "eight" as a lucky number. Picking the Russian was a nod to my heritage in that direction -- it felt classier than going with "Eight" or "Ocho" and something along the lines of "Huit" or "Acht" would've felt untruthful.
66  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Obama's Wall Street speechifying on: April 29, 2017, 01:11:31 pm
Depends on what he said, I suppose, but he obviously has an inherent right to address them, and in fact to be paid to address them if they want him that badly, and I would say it's anti-American to suggest otherwise. Absolute free speech and capitalism are two of the most important pillars of our society.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 28, 2017, 07:23:15 pm
Are terrible inaccurate constituency polls not going to be a feature of this race? I really enjoyed them in 2015 as they allowed me to talk about individual constituencies and pretend I had a clue as to what was going on there
68  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Rjjr77 on: April 28, 2017, 07:15:45 pm
Knows less about Republican primaries in Ohio than he thinks he does

Because I'm confident John Kasich can't win a republican primary in Ohio right now? I'm not the only Ohio poster who believes that. I think most do at this point

Because virtually all of your predictions and statements with regards to OHGOP primaries suggest that you think the electorate would be overwhelmingly majority-Republican, ignoring that usually very large numbers of independents vote in those primaries.

Kasich also has consistent net-positive approvals with both Republicans and independents in Ohio, along with one of the highest name recognition scores of any politician in the state (if not the highest, since he's the first Ohioan to run for President since John Glenn). I find it rather bizarre to think he wouldn't easily a win a state primary for pretty much any office.
69  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should POTUS have line-item veto power? on: April 28, 2017, 07:07:41 pm
No (R), we need to stop transferring legislative power to the executive branch.
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: April 28, 2017, 07:06:43 pm
Recruitment for the Senate Ds has been pretty disappointing, still no candidates in the two states(NV,AZ) they must win to even break even in the Senate. 

Kyrsten Sinema in AZ has clearly been fundraising with an eye towards a Senate run, and its clear other Democrats who may be interested are waiting for her decision. Nevada Democratic leadership seem to want Kate Marshall in NV, though that race is still kind of unclear.

Keep in mind that lots of successful recent swing-state Senate campaigns (like Cory Gardner's in 2014, or Angus King's in 2012) only kicked off the year of the election, rather than the year before. There's still plenty of time.
71  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Donald Trump (R) vs Michael Bloomberg (D) vs Mark Zuckerberg (I) on: April 28, 2017, 07:03:46 pm
Bloomberg of these three, especially if he has a major-party nomination.
72  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Vosem: Ask me anything on: April 28, 2017, 07:03:17 pm
You're somewhat of a globalist, I guess. Seeing the statistics about shootings in the US, and seeing how most other western countries both seem to be fine without freely giving guns, and almost don't experience this phenomenon of constant shootings, don't you think that the American obsession with guns is a bit too traditionalist, outdated and stubborn?

A fair question -- I am indeed something of a "globalist". I believe that people have an inherent right to self-defense and that areas that were at one point safe and low-crime can become quite violent and dangerous rather abruptly (I believe there was a year in the 1960s prior to the outbreak of the Troubles when zero murders were committed in all of Northern Ireland; the somewhat abrupt return of ethnic conflict to the Caucasus and to the Balkans in the 1980s-'90s, in my mind, also goes to show how difficult it can be to predict the future and to guarantee the absence of some form of violent conflict); none of us are really as aware of what will happen in the future as we think we are. Thus, no circumstance can possibly exist in which someone would not need to ensure that they would be able to exercise their right to self-defense in the future.

Considering these points, I have to say that while it would be foolish of me to suggest, as many pro-gun advocates in the United States do, that America's gun violence problem is disconnected with the much easier access to guns in this country than in the rest of the West; I simply think the right of self-defense is important enough that it's an acceptable price to pay, or it should be tackled through other means.

Is this a traditionalist and stubborn point of view -- yeah, probably. Those are acceptable critiques. I wouldn't say outdated, since it seems that the peak of gun-control sentiment in the US was reached in the 1990s and it has generally been declining in public opinion since then.

How do you define your Zionism?

I feel like we don't talk much at all, especially on Zionism even though we are both closely aligned on it.

Zionism constitutes my support for a Jewish and democratic state in the general geographic area of the ancient Jewish kingdoms, with its capital in Jerusalem. Since the present State of Israel, in my view, fulfills these conditions, it constitutes support for that states' continued existence (obviously) and both a military and political alliance between my country (the United States) and Israel. I can go into a lot more detail about what I'd like Israel to be like in an ideal world, or my opinions on actual Israeli domestic politics, but that's the basic definition of what I perceive to be 'Zionism'.

Indeed we don't -- I tend to log on to Atlas mostly to yell at people I disagree with or are being particularly blockheaded, so it follows that I don't interact too much with people I don't have many disagreements with Smiley
73  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Mark Zuckerberg vs Hillary Clinton on: April 28, 2017, 06:46:58 pm
Clinton, I think
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread on: April 28, 2017, 06:45:41 pm
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=43.3&LAB=21.3&UKIP=9&LD=21.6&GRN=3

Conservatives 393 (43.3%)
Labour           153(21.3%)
SNP                51(4.85%)
Liberal Democrat 29(21.6%)
Others 24 

Lib Dems aren't going to rise that much, and if they do, they will hurt the tories as much as labour.

Labour will also get a higher vote, than this, they have a solid base of ~ 25% of voters. Don't quote me on this.

Stop trying to make such scenarios happening.



I don't think these scenarios are made likelier by people predicting them on the Internet...
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017 on: April 28, 2017, 06:43:52 pm
Got my ballot today. I know who my top 3-4 are and I know who my bottom picks are, but I have no idea what I'm doing with the middle of my ballot. Thoughts?

Are you putting the social conservative options (like Trost or Lemieux) first, or are you going with electability (so presumably Raitt or Chong)? I'd ask you to put Bernier high, but he really doesn't seem like your style of conservative...
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