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October 23, 2014, 07:23:04 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your Current 2014 House Ratings on: October 18, 2014, 11:03:58 pm
Likely Democratic
Arizona 9 (Sinema)
California 3 (Garamendi)
Connecticut 5 (Esty)
Florida 18 (Murphy)
Hawaii 1 (Hanabusa)
Illinois 11 (Foster)
Iowa 2 (Loebsack)
Massachusetts 9 (Keating)
New York 4 (McCarthy)

Leans Democratic
California 31 (Miller)
California 36 (Ruiz)
Georgia 12 (Barrow)
Illinois 17 (Bustos)
Iowa 1 (Braley)
Massachusetts 6 (Tierney)
Minnesota 7 (Peterson)
New Hampshire 2 (Kuster)
New York 1 (Bishop)
New York 18 (Maloney)
New York 24 (Maffei)
Texas 23 (Gallego)

Tossup/Tilts Democratic
California 26 (Brownley)
Florida 2 (Southerland)
Iowa 3 (Latham)
Maine 2 (Michaud)
Minnesota 8 (Nolan)
New York 11 (Grimm)

Tossup/Tilts Republican
Arizona 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona 2 (Barber)
California 7 (Bera)
California 52 (Peters)
Colorado 6 (Coffman)
Florida 26 (Garcia)
Illinois 10 (Schneider)
Illinois 12 (Enyart)
Nebraska 2 (Terry)
New Hampshire 1 (Shea-Porter)
West Virginia 3 (Rahall)

Leans Republican
Arkansas 2 (Griffin)
New Jersey 3 (Runyan)
New York 21 (Owens)
Virginia 10 (Wolf)
West Virginia 2 (Capito)

Likely Republican
Arkansas 4 (Cotton)
California 21 (Valadao)
Illinois 13 (Davis)
Indiana 2 (Walorski)
Iowa 4 (King)
Kansas 2 (Jenkins)
Michigan 1 (Benishek)
Michigan 7 (Walberg)
Michigan 8 (Rogers)
Michigan 11 (Bentivolio)
Montana AL (Daines)
Nevada 3 (Heck)
New York 19 (Gibson)
New York 23 (Reed)
North Carolina 7 (McIntyre)
North Dakota AL (Cramer)
Pennsylvania 6 (Gerlach)
Utah 4 (Matheson)
Wisconsin 6 (Petri)

Those're my ratings, as of October 19. I'd definitely appreciate it if someone more map-skilled than I am would be able to make a map for them; perhaps indicating Tossups of both stripes as simply Tossup, since the difference between Tilt D and Tilt R is very, very small.
52  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should opebo have his own Jon Stewart/John Oliver style show? on: October 18, 2014, 07:50:16 pm
Yeah, I'd watch that.
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who has a better chance of winning? on: October 18, 2014, 07:32:23 pm
Balukoff, but more due to the lack of polling in Idaho than any other reason. I still think the likeliest result is for Corbett to do slightly better as both lose overwhelmingly.
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of these potential Democratic insurgent candidates will actually run? on: October 18, 2014, 07:09:52 pm
Only Schweitzer, but he'll crash and burn.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Charlie Crist underperform or outperform Obama? on: October 18, 2014, 07:07:57 pm
Voted 'outperform' since I think he's doing better than that now, but I think Scott make ground up before Election Day. Crist's "fan bump" won't last.
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What did Mark Udall and John Hickenlooper do wrong? on: October 18, 2014, 07:06:54 pm
The gun bill, and really this is just a swing state in a leans-Republican year. 2010 was an aberration caused mostly by the lack of any real GOP gubernatorial candidate -- Beauprez/Gardner (or Beauprez/Buck, or really any competent Republican/Buck) would have beaten Hickenlooper and Bennet, but Hickenlooper wasn't challenged and Buck looked worse juxtaposed next to Maes and Tancredo.
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which Governor(-elect) will have won by the widest margin? on: October 18, 2014, 07:04:57 pm
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 11:49:10 am
Well, Braley will get "owned" much more brutally in a few weeks, which should be even more fun to watch.

If you consider losing by a point or two being owned, then maybe.

Certainly losing what you have worked for over the past two years (and probably planned for much longer) and, considering the quality of his campaign, probably losing any chance for a future in elective politics counts as getting owned. Al Franken owned Norm Coleman in 2008, even if it was just by 300 votes.
59  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The worst President, of these three? on: October 18, 2014, 11:38:37 am
Gonna go with Nixon for Watergate and PRC recognition.
60  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Bill Cosby on: October 18, 2014, 11:30:07 am
All-around fantastic person. I'll go with "guilty until proven innocent" for the sexual assault allegations, since I'd really rather believe the best of him.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 11:24:32 am
Not a bad result for a +6 Republican sample. No one should be surprised if the Dem internals end up being accurate again. Democrats just don't mess around when it comes to internals, they can't afford to.

Yeah, because internals aren't released to look favorable to the candidate to rile up their base or anything to make it look like they have a chance.

All the non-partisan Senate polls are wrong. (Except those in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire that show the Democrat ahead, right?)

Again, in 2012, the internals were better at measuring the actual turnout, because a lot of the public pollsters were assuming a bigger drop off in turnout which ended up not happening.

Again, 2012 was a Presidential election year. A good number of pollsters still got it right. This is a six-year election for a two-term President. Off-year elections favor Republicans. Six-year elections are usually bad to the party of the two-term President.

Could Udall be ahead in Colorado right now? Probably not. He's behind in most polls from non-partisan sources with the exception of the YouGov poll. These polls have Gardner ahead the fringes of the margin of error.  

If you cite a D+3 poll in Iowa, that's one thing, it's around the MOE and plausible. But Udall +3 in Colorado, it doesn't match the other margins. Most reasonable minds would have to conclude that this is your typical internal poll where you are trying to rally your base.

And note, I am not saying that Udall can't pull this off. The status of the race on October 18 suggests otherwise, however.

We'll see what happens on election night. Everyone's predictions will be proven right or wrong then. I'm not going to flip out if my predictions are wrong.

The tradition isn't 'flipping out'; it's 'slinking away quietly'.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 11:12:17 am
Well, Braley will get "owned" much more brutally in a few weeks, which should be even more fun to watch.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 11:11:28 am
Considering Mellman has the third strongest Democratic house effect out of tens of pollsters in Nate Silver's rankings, and that Udall would release the best of all polls available to him, again this seems in line with a race that is currently about Gardner+2.
64  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Joe Republic on: October 17, 2014, 12:13:20 pm
FF for running his Risk games!
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 12:05:42 pm
Oh, Republicans here.

Poll shows Ernst up six: "We're going to net eight seats!"
Poll shows Braley up one: "Nah, this can't be tied."

It's not, and we're still gaining eight seats Smiley

The spinning here is pathetic and hilarious.

Adding this quote to my signature.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 11:55:44 am
Guys, when you conduct 10 polls of a race where one candidate leads by 1-3 points, you're bound to get 1 or 2 that show the other candidate with a narrow lead. This is totally consistent with what we know, and Ernst is still on track to win.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: MN-08: SUSA: Nolan down 8 (!) on: October 16, 2014, 11:51:46 pm
As Lief said, SUSA actually has a long history of being strongly Republican-biased when they poll Minnesota, and not anywhere else. So this is going to need confirmation, though I don't think Mills leading Nolan by a bit is ridiculous at all.
68  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Under whose leadership would you rather have lived? on: October 16, 2014, 06:16:26 pm
Thatcher was definitely the better leader of the two, but I would definitely rather live in the 2000s than the 1980s, so Bush (American) it is.
69  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Republicans: What faction do you belong to? on: October 15, 2014, 11:34:12 pm
Somewhere between the Libertarian Right and the New Right, though closer to the former and including some views that don't fit in with either group (such as about climate change, for instance).
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who has a better chance of winning? on: October 15, 2014, 10:54:59 pm
Still say Ernst. She's in a more elastic state and has a worse opponent.
71  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Ebola Thread on: October 15, 2014, 10:46:23 pm
Looks like Ebola could already be in Naso's neighbourhood, as the nurse who now has it as well went to Cleveland and then took a flight back. The day before she was tested positive for it.

Watch out Naso !

Yup, indeed there is widespread concern here that someone may have been infected by the nurse and is not currently showing symptoms (a friend of mine was very concerned upon discovering that her mother was at the airport at the same time as the person with ebola). I also spoke to an acquaintance who attends Kent State University, which the ebola patient briefly visited, and he told me that there was a great deal of panic on campus.

The amount of unnecessary panic in Dallas right now must be reaching remarkable proportions if it's this bad here.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: World-renown horror author Stephen King whole-heartedly endorses Shenna Bellows on: October 15, 2014, 09:52:28 pm
According to 538, the Maine Senate race is the single one of the 36 Senate races this year which has moved the most during the past month and a half. So now, everyone who's been picking on me for claiming this simple fact, can take a deeeeep, deep breath. Maybe I wasn't so shamefully wrong after all, despite your handful or three lame and deeply insulting jokes that I was borderline insane. Wink

The 538 forecast calculates that Maine has moved 13.1% towards Bellows since September 3, while the vast majority of races have moved less than 5%: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-a-lot-has-changed-and-mostly-stayed-the-same/

You neglect the fact that 538 also shows that Collins is ahead by 26 percentage points and that Collins' chance of winning is >99%; essentially rounding up to certain.

I don't dispute with you that the Maine Senate race is unique in the nation. There is no other place where a very popular incumbent Republican Senator is running for reelection in an unabashedly blue state. Since the Democratic nominee is an unknown, it is the only place in the country where the nominee of the majority party of a state is still, in October, introducing themselves to the electorate: this creates the strong movement towards Bellows that can be seen. However, because of Collins' popularity, this effect is nowhere near strong enough. If Bellows had 42 more days, and gained 13 points during those days, she would still be losing to Collins by double-digits, and she'd barely be doing any better than Allen in 2008. That's how far behind she is. But Bellows doesn't have 42 more days.

Bellows has shown herself to be a skilled politician; she's fundraised very strongly and made leftist groups very enthusiastic about her. When she runs in a Democratic primary for another office in the future, she'll be able to keep that enthusiasm and perhaps win. She has a future in politics ahead of her -- and she is young. At 39, she may even be able to win a Senate seat in the future, when Collins and King are gone.

But she has no chance of defeating Collins. None at all. Her chance of doing better than 40% are 50/50 at best, and her chance of doing better than Tom Allen in 2008, while not impossible, are very low. She will most certainly lose by double-digits.

Could this be a game changer?

No, that's not how American politics works. I like Bellows but she's going to be slaughtered. She'll do worse than Tim Allen in 2008. You need to accept that.

She has done better in every poll that has come out, so this is not really true. She started out about 40% behind Collins, now she's only 20-something behind. She's at the verge of doing better than Tennant in WV, which was considered being in one of the most competitive of races only months ago.

West Virginia was not considered "one of the most competitive of races" at any point after Capito announced her candidacy. Capito was always going to crush whoever the Democrats put up (though probably not by as much as Collins will crush Bellows).
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will the CO GOP finally break the hex this year (Senate/Gov?) on: October 15, 2014, 09:39:00 pm
There is no hex at all. Republicans triumphed in the Atty Gen, Treasurer, and Sec of State elections in 2010, while a poor nominee for Senate was just barely edged out; Republicans managed to maintain their 4-3 majority in the House delegation in 2012.

Since the hex does not exist, I don't see how Republicans can possibly break it. But if you're asking for my opinion on Republican chances in the 2014 gubernatorial and Senate elections, I think Gardner and Hickenlooper are both currently ahead, and that Beauprez has a better chance at an upset than Udall.
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: As of right now (10/15) on FiveThirtyEight.... on: October 15, 2014, 09:13:30 pm

Gardner has a higher chance of winning (67%) than Perdue does (64%).

Last five Colorado polls are G+4, G+2, G+4, G+6, and U+3.
Last five Georgia polls are N+3, 0, P+3, P+4 and P+4.

It does sound Gardner is doing a little bit better than Perdue at the moment.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-12: Barrow supports Keystone XL; attacks Obama as beholden to "Oil Sheikhs" on: October 15, 2014, 09:09:46 pm
It's very clear that Barrow will be reelected, especially as Carter and Nunn still haven't been written off. This race is Likely D, and that only because of Romney's margin.
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