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February 14, 2016, 09:48:05 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Libertarians do better or worse than 2012 in 2016? on: January 29, 2016, 08:46:21 pm
I think almost certainly better.
52  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel general discussion on: January 29, 2016, 01:33:32 am
Because a sizable number of very violent people don't want that.  It's, apparently, better to try to appease these people instead of killing them.  The problem is, they don't want to be appeased.  They want what they want and if they don't get it, they will murder and convince others to murder.  Get rid of those people, stop making more of them and there will be peace in less than a year.

Of course even if we went with that solution, it would still be an amazingly hard road.  There are no easy answers here.

I did not expect such a strong anti-Zionist tirade from you.

I suggest you read the paragraph again Smiley

It's probably the least least worst/only workable option though. I expect Israeli will see a swift, unexpected Soviet style collapse in the next 20 years.

Israel will not see a "Soviet-style" collapse because Israel (especially if, like most people in this thread seem to, you define Israel by pre-1967 borders) is not a geographically polarized multinational state. As Ernest also pointed out, the only force that comes remotely close to being able to topple the current Israeli system is further-right-wing Zionists (and in any scenario where they come to power it is one where they have reached an understanding with America and continue to benefit from American support); at no point in the history of the entire State of Israel has it been more safe from outside threats.

This constant prediction of Israel's impending collapse even as it continues to strengthen strongly reminds me of medieval European attitudes towards the Ottoman Empire. Even at its very peak, when Suleiman the Magnificent was reigning, medieval European sources were totally, utterly confident that the state was on the verge of collapse. (I suppose they did turn out to be right, in a sense; the state was ultimately replaced 300 years later by a more nationalist entity).
53  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you upgrade your phone every year? on: January 29, 2016, 12:37:33 am
I got my first smartphone in 2010, and then my second in 2015 after the first gave up. I hope that I can extend the life of this one past 2020.
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which event will you be watching tonight? on: January 28, 2016, 02:01:36 pm
I'll watch the debate, I like being entertained.
55  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Describe the Previous Person's Ideology on: January 28, 2016, 10:32:37 am
Socially liberal, but sufficiently fiscally conservative that he continues generally supporting Republicans. Very anti-Trump; pro-free trade. Not sure where he falls on the internationalist/isolationist axis.
56  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Can you name all 50 states in alphabetical order? on: January 28, 2016, 10:22:27 am
Alphabetically, no. Geographically, yes. I think I could get all 50 state capitals, but I'm not confident something wouldn't elude me; 45+ is definite. I know I can name all 100 Senators (Atlas, I know...), and, again, I think I could get all 50 electoral vote numbers (45+ is definite) and all 50 governors (45+ is definite, again).
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How well will Gilmore do in the Undercard? on: January 28, 2016, 12:39:29 am
He really should've let Bob Marshall be crushed by Warner in '08 and tried for a statewide comeback some other year. '14 could've been a great choice; considering how close Gillespie came, a better-known ex-Governor who also might not have been taken too seriously might've pulled off a win.
58  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which congresspersons have you been represented by? on: January 27, 2016, 11:28:39 pm
Bumping this, since I just accidentally started basically the same thread Cheesy

Jerry Nadler (D-NY, 1997-2002)
Tim Johnson (R-IL, 2002-2005)
Dennis Kucinich (D-OH, 2005-2011)
Jim Renacci (R-OH, 2011-2015)
Pat Tiberi (R-OH, 2015-2016)
Joyce Beatty (D-OH, 2016-present)

Al D'Amato (R-NY, 1997-1999)
Pat Moynihan (D-NY, 1997-2001)
Chuck Schumer (D-NY, 1999-2002)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY, 2001-2002)
Dick Durbin (D-IL, 2002-2005)
Peter Fitzgerald (R-IL, 2002-2005)
Barack Obama (D-IL, 2005)
Mike DeWine (R-OH, 2005-2007)
George Voinovich (R-OH, 2005-2011)
Sherrod Brown (D-OH, 2007-present)
Rob Portman (R-OH, 2011-present)

George Pataki (R-NY, 1997-2002)
George Ryan (R-IL, 2002-2003)
Rod Blagojevich (D-IL, 2003-2005)
Bob Taft (R-OH, 2005-2007)
Ted Strickland (D-OH, 2007-2011)
John Kasich (R-OH, 2011-present)

George Ryan (R-IL, 2002-2003)
Rod Blagojevich (D-IL, 2003-2005)
Bob Taft (R-OH, 2005-2007)

Well, I've definitely been governed by some nice guys.
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has Trump destroyed his chances by staying out of the Fox debate? on: January 26, 2016, 07:39:17 pm
Just like everyone thought Paul got killed because he skipped last debate, right? Oh, wait.

Paul is already down to his absolute core of support. He has nowhere further to fall.

This is absolutely not the case for the Donald, a good chunk of whose support (not all of it, not even close to a majority, but enough to matter) is still persuadable and, furthermore, who is still counting on at least some undecideds to come across to his camp and should avoid alienating them.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: "Most likely I won't be doing the debate." UPDATE: He's out on: January 26, 2016, 07:24:15 pm
Ol' Felito Cruz is going to demolish him and it's going to be so much fun to watch.
61  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of War in Afghanistan on: January 25, 2016, 02:05:21 pm
Unpopular opinion, perhaps, but I tend to be of the view that both the Soviet and American wars were justified (though both were terribly botched).
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-19 on: January 25, 2016, 01:38:38 pm
Didn't Faso lose a Governors race by 50 points?

Yeah, but that wasn't a case of him blowing it or anything; it was just a very Democratic atmosphere in a very elastic (and heavily-D neutrally) state. It doesn't reflect how he'll do in 2016.
63  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What's the highest elevation you've reached? on: January 25, 2016, 01:08:48 pm
The highest point I've reached on foot is the summit of Nevado Pisco in Peru, at 5,752 m (18,871 ft), which is above all of Europe and also above the 48 continental US states. I don't know what the highest point I've reached driving is, but it's significantly lower. I'm very interested to see if anyone on the forum can top this.
64  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your two favorite (known) planets in the Solar System on: January 25, 2016, 12:54:59 pm
Venus and Uranus as the two inherently funny ones. Due to a bias towards Earth, I didn't count it.

Anyway, the planets of our Solar System aren't particularly interesting compared with many of the moons that the Solar System boasts of, such as Titan or Enceladus.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Does TRUMP win every state in the primaries? on: January 25, 2016, 12:48:27 pm
NOTA. Even in an overwhelming Trump victory scenario, a few states will still fall to his opponents. The only precedent for a non-incumbent sweeping all states is in a two-way race; in open fields like this, even in the biggest landslides (see Kerry '04), a few states still fall by the wayside.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is a GOP controlled congress 100% certain if Trump wins? on: January 24, 2016, 08:51:03 pm
Yeah. GOP control of both houses of Congress is certain if the GOP nominee wins the general election, as Clinton needs to win by at least a moderate margin to flip the Senate and in a historic landslide to flip the House. A narrow win wouldn't be sufficient.
67  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which beatdown has been Trump's most impressive? on: January 24, 2016, 02:31:07 pm
Bush. Carson's wasn't particularly impressive because at no point did Carson fight back. It's too early to pass judgment on whether Trump has successfully beaten back Cruz, who is still in a decently strong second place in IA and, while not close to Trump, does lead the rest of the field in NH and nationally. Cruz is a much more skilled politician than Bush or Carson, so we'll see whether he can emerge from a tussle with Trump. But I think Bush is almost the objectively correct answer here.
68  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Virginian should Hillary Clinton pick as her VP? on: January 24, 2016, 02:20:42 am
I think either Tim Kaine or John Hickenlooper are objectively Hillary's strongest VP possibilities, though it seems very clear that Castro is being groomed for the appointment behind-the-scenes. I guess we'll see how that works out.
69  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: 45% of Israeli Jews don't believe Arabs should have equal rights on: January 22, 2016, 07:09:53 pm
That's obviously terrible, but it's nowhere near as bad as the leadership of the other side wanting to massacre all the Jews.

Gee, I wonder what percentage of Arabs support equal rights for Jews in a potential "Palestinian" state... Smiley


See, this is the classic retort when there's no way to argue your side is the lesser evil.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Guy livetweets Trump rally; hitlerity ensues on: January 21, 2016, 03:06:36 pm
If you can't dress properly in the United States at these prices you are either living under a bridge or an idiot.

Ugh, just when I thought he'd lost interest he comes crawling back.
71  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1 year to go- Which party will control the White House on January 20, 2017? on: January 20, 2016, 03:13:01 pm
More likely a Democrat, unfortunately.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-PPP: Ayotte +2 on: January 20, 2016, 03:06:39 pm
Sitting governors have a great track record on taking out incumbent Senators. 

Ayotte is definitely in for a hard fight.

Ah, yes, like Jeanne Shaheen did in 2002?

No incumbent Governor has taken out an incumbent Senator since Tom Carper beat Bill Roth in 2000; to be fair, incumbent Governors do not often run for the Senate. Ex-governors do more frequently, and their record is mixed; Linda Lingle, who was an overwhelmingly popular Governor, was defeated in a landslide for a Senate run, while Angus King and Mike Rounds were elected comfortably. It just all depends. All this poll shows is that if the presidential election is a Democratic landslide, as PPP's electorate shows, Ayotte will still narrowly lead Hassan.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Iowa?- Less than 2 weeks to go on: January 20, 2016, 02:47:51 pm
I hate to say this, but Trump has grabbed control of the narrative. Cruz has done pretty well in past debates, so he's not to be counted out and could still grab the initiative and victory at the next one -- the vote will be held in the immediate post-debate atmosphere, so if anyone wins the debate decisively he will massively overperform in the voting. I think, however, right now no one is likelier than Trump to prevail in Iowa, and I voted Trump (only in the poll, oc).
74  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of the people in Iran's underground house churches on: January 19, 2016, 12:43:35 pm
How is this even a question
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics on: January 19, 2016, 12:29:19 pm
So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately

PP, PSOE, and Ciudadanos did reach a deal to elect a Speaker (Patxi Lopez, from the PSOE) so that the new Parliament can convene, but I don't believe they've agreed to anything else so far.
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