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October 21, 2014, 06:58:29 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: MN-08: SUSA: Nolan down 8 (!) on: October 16, 2014, 11:51:46 pm
As Lief said, SUSA actually has a long history of being strongly Republican-biased when they poll Minnesota, and not anywhere else. So this is going to need confirmation, though I don't think Mills leading Nolan by a bit is ridiculous at all.
52  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Under whose leadership would you rather have lived? on: October 16, 2014, 06:16:26 pm
Thatcher was definitely the better leader of the two, but I would definitely rather live in the 2000s than the 1980s, so Bush (American) it is.
53  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Republicans: What faction do you belong to? on: October 15, 2014, 11:34:12 pm
Somewhere between the Libertarian Right and the New Right, though closer to the former and including some views that don't fit in with either group (such as about climate change, for instance).
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who has a better chance of winning? on: October 15, 2014, 10:54:59 pm
Still say Ernst. She's in a more elastic state and has a worse opponent.
55  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Ebola Thread on: October 15, 2014, 10:46:23 pm
Looks like Ebola could already be in Naso's neighbourhood, as the nurse who now has it as well went to Cleveland and then took a flight back. The day before she was tested positive for it.

Watch out Naso !

Yup, indeed there is widespread concern here that someone may have been infected by the nurse and is not currently showing symptoms (a friend of mine was very concerned upon discovering that her mother was at the airport at the same time as the person with ebola). I also spoke to an acquaintance who attends Kent State University, which the ebola patient briefly visited, and he told me that there was a great deal of panic on campus.

The amount of unnecessary panic in Dallas right now must be reaching remarkable proportions if it's this bad here.
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: World-renown horror author Stephen King whole-heartedly endorses Shenna Bellows on: October 15, 2014, 09:52:28 pm
According to 538, the Maine Senate race is the single one of the 36 Senate races this year which has moved the most during the past month and a half. So now, everyone who's been picking on me for claiming this simple fact, can take a deeeeep, deep breath. Maybe I wasn't so shamefully wrong after all, despite your handful or three lame and deeply insulting jokes that I was borderline insane. Wink

The 538 forecast calculates that Maine has moved 13.1% towards Bellows since September 3, while the vast majority of races have moved less than 5%: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-a-lot-has-changed-and-mostly-stayed-the-same/

You neglect the fact that 538 also shows that Collins is ahead by 26 percentage points and that Collins' chance of winning is >99%; essentially rounding up to certain.

I don't dispute with you that the Maine Senate race is unique in the nation. There is no other place where a very popular incumbent Republican Senator is running for reelection in an unabashedly blue state. Since the Democratic nominee is an unknown, it is the only place in the country where the nominee of the majority party of a state is still, in October, introducing themselves to the electorate: this creates the strong movement towards Bellows that can be seen. However, because of Collins' popularity, this effect is nowhere near strong enough. If Bellows had 42 more days, and gained 13 points during those days, she would still be losing to Collins by double-digits, and she'd barely be doing any better than Allen in 2008. That's how far behind she is. But Bellows doesn't have 42 more days.

Bellows has shown herself to be a skilled politician; she's fundraised very strongly and made leftist groups very enthusiastic about her. When she runs in a Democratic primary for another office in the future, she'll be able to keep that enthusiasm and perhaps win. She has a future in politics ahead of her -- and she is young. At 39, she may even be able to win a Senate seat in the future, when Collins and King are gone.

But she has no chance of defeating Collins. None at all. Her chance of doing better than 40% are 50/50 at best, and her chance of doing better than Tom Allen in 2008, while not impossible, are very low. She will most certainly lose by double-digits.

Could this be a game changer?

No, that's not how American politics works. I like Bellows but she's going to be slaughtered. She'll do worse than Tim Allen in 2008. You need to accept that.

She has done better in every poll that has come out, so this is not really true. She started out about 40% behind Collins, now she's only 20-something behind. She's at the verge of doing better than Tennant in WV, which was considered being in one of the most competitive of races only months ago.

West Virginia was not considered "one of the most competitive of races" at any point after Capito announced her candidacy. Capito was always going to crush whoever the Democrats put up (though probably not by as much as Collins will crush Bellows).
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will the CO GOP finally break the hex this year (Senate/Gov?) on: October 15, 2014, 09:39:00 pm
There is no hex at all. Republicans triumphed in the Atty Gen, Treasurer, and Sec of State elections in 2010, while a poor nominee for Senate was just barely edged out; Republicans managed to maintain their 4-3 majority in the House delegation in 2012.

Since the hex does not exist, I don't see how Republicans can possibly break it. But if you're asking for my opinion on Republican chances in the 2014 gubernatorial and Senate elections, I think Gardner and Hickenlooper are both currently ahead, and that Beauprez has a better chance at an upset than Udall.
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: As of right now (10/15) on FiveThirtyEight.... on: October 15, 2014, 09:13:30 pm

Gardner has a higher chance of winning (67%) than Perdue does (64%).

Last five Colorado polls are G+4, G+2, G+4, G+6, and U+3.
Last five Georgia polls are N+3, 0, P+3, P+4 and P+4.

It does sound Gardner is doing a little bit better than Perdue at the moment.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-12: Barrow supports Keystone XL; attacks Obama as beholden to "Oil Sheikhs" on: October 15, 2014, 09:09:46 pm
It's very clear that Barrow will be reelected, especially as Carter and Nunn still haven't been written off. This race is Likely D, and that only because of Romney's margin.
60  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Atlanta or Des Moines? on: October 15, 2014, 07:28:10 pm
Des Moines for the weather.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 14, 2014, 09:12:16 pm
The fact that the Conservatives are still hovering at 30% while UKIP is in the mid-teens is amazing.  They're doing what the Canadian PC's couldn't - lose their crazy uncles and still remain the primary center-right party.

For now.

But must insert usual statements of 'oldest political party on Earth', 'they've survived worse', etc.

Aren't they usually considered to descend from Robert Peel, while the American Democrats are handed down from Andrew Jackson? Making the Democrats older. Though one could argue both Jackson and Peel rebranded something existing rather than starting something new.
62  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Evo Morales on: October 14, 2014, 04:27:01 pm
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Colorado? on: October 14, 2014, 03:46:47 pm
Voted Hickenlooper/Gardner/Coffman, but really it's 50/50 between Hick and Beauprez.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which GOP governor do you most want to see lose? on: October 13, 2014, 08:52:06 pm
Not sure I really want to see any of them lose, but if I had to pick it would either be Brownback for being a rabid so-con or Parnell, since his opponent is basically another Republican. Voted Brownback.
65  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Shut down the EPA? on: October 13, 2014, 03:33:43 pm
No, we really do need the EPA.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Shenna Bellows win any counties in Maine? on: October 12, 2014, 09:25:55 pm
No. Chellie Pingree and Tom Allen didn't, and she won't do that well.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Inhofe and Lankford surpass the 70 percent mark in Oklahoma? on: October 12, 2014, 09:13:52 pm
Neither, but Lankford will do better; Inhofe is too far right even for a significant chunk of Oklahoma Republicans.

Well that, and Inhofe spent a good chunk of his long long career as a sort of perennial also-ran.

I know you're Oklahoman and I hesitate to correct you, but I'm under the impression that Inhofe has lost a grand total of two elections, both in the 1970s, during a career in public service that goes back nearly half a century. His record of winning elections is pretty good.
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 12, 2014, 07:00:55 pm
A claim that has been made periodically since... what... the 1960s?

To be fair, the way British politics operates has completely changed since the 1960s.
69  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Dr. Scholl vs. KC Dem? on: October 12, 2014, 06:48:22 pm
KC Dem makes me smile every so often. Dr. Scholl is just terrible.
70  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would a Muslim President Bother You? on: October 12, 2014, 02:40:02 pm
So long as they are pro-Zionist, no, it wouldn't bother me.
71  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: The forum needs another admin on: October 12, 2014, 12:11:51 pm
The only acceptable answers are opebo and jmfcst.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: Rasmussen: LePage +1 on: October 10, 2014, 11:55:25 pm
What is driving the LePage renaissance when he's been behind ever since Michaud entered the race?
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Easiest pathway for Democrats to hold the Senate? on: October 10, 2014, 10:09:25 pm
Keep all Obama states & North Carolina; have Orman win in Kansas and caucus with the Democrats, and then Biden breaks the tie. 50-50, minimum Senate. To do it without Orman is very hard, but I think the likeliest is either having there be a different climate in January or a David Perdue meltdown and then having Michelle Nunn enter the Senate. Nunn, strangely, is probably a likelier winner than any other red-state Democrat (except Hagan and, if you count him, Orman).
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL Gov- Is Rauner completely cooked, or is there any hope? on: October 10, 2014, 08:53:07 pm
Quinn is favored right now, but I wouldn't count on a last-minute "coming home" -- Quinn overperforming in 2010 was a solitary event, not reflected in any other recent Illinois election I can think of, or even in other elections on the 2010 ballot.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Iowa fundraising 3rd quarter: Ernst more than doubles Braley's haul on: October 10, 2014, 04:44:08 pm
Demonstrates Braley's weakness more conclusively than Ernst's strength, but still.
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