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May 06, 2016, 05:40:02 pm
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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats Must Win 30 Seats to Take the House on: April 28, 2016, 01:06:00 pm
The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.

Well, may be. But - may be not too. With Republican party running too many right-wing idiots in too many districts (and districts favorable to such idiots (in the South, for example) are mostly represented by similar congressmen already).... And 2018 elections will be at least somewhat "tilted" to North-East (for example - out of 9 North-East states 8 will hold Senate elections and 8 - Gubernatorial in 2018)....

That's true, but there are Democratic Senate incumbents up in North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia. Those are all states Trump is favored to win, and with the exception of Manchin in WV all of them won in 2012 through a mixture of bad opponents and presidential turnout; and the landscape in WV has shifted quite a lot from 2012 already, never mind by 2018. Even if Josh Mandel, whom I strongly support, doesn't succeed in his second Senate attempt here in Ohio, Republicans will still win back/significantly expand upon their Senate majority in 2018.

The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.

Luckily if Clinton gets to put a few more liberals on the Supreme Court, gerrymandering will probably be declared unconstitutional.

Luckily that'll undo partisan gerrymanders in Illinois and Maryland. The net helps your party, I agree, but by no more than 10-15 seats; still not enough to take the House without a PV victory of a few points. The Democratic Party has the intractable problem that its areas of strength are both more compact and more intensely Democratic than Republican areas of strength, and therefore narrow Democratic victories will always result in Republican majorities under the system of single-member geographic districts (not as large as in 2012, but still). Remember how the neutral, non-partisan map in Illinois in the 2000s once gave Republicans a majority of the delegation? The only fix for this is either multi-member seats or a proportional system, and neither is achievable without a constitutional amendment.

I also question how easy it'll be and especially how long it'll take for a Clinton SCOTUS appointee to be confirmed, but that's incredibly difficult to discuss without knowing exact Senatorial numbers.

52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Assuming Trump is the Nominee...Which States Would Gary Johnson Win? Predictions on: April 28, 2016, 10:33:38 am
Nobody wants Clinton or Trump, and there's plenty of precedent for Libertarian or random Independent candidates in the high single digits when nobody wants either of the top two choices. As for states, I could see Utah if a really concerted campaign. Probably nowhere else, though in a strong campaign I could see him finishing 15-20 in the popular vote, a la Perot.
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats Must Win 30 Seats to Take the House on: April 28, 2016, 12:56:47 am
The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.
54  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Age That You First Got Drunk on: April 27, 2016, 11:18:34 pm
Towards the beginning of freshman year of high school, so...14.
55  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: If you ran for office... on: April 27, 2016, 11:17:44 pm
I'd just delete the Facebook comment that connects my Facebook with the account "Vosem", and leave the Atlas Forum group. There was also a thread a few years ago where I posted a picture of myself when I was asking opebo what race he considered me to be, so I'd go back, find that, and delete it. There's not much linking this account to the actual me.

There're probably some off-color comments on my Twitter somewhere, but I generally try to keep my Facebook and Twitter at least somewhat politics-free (there's a sh**t-ton of pro-Israel articles I share on Facebook all the time, but I doubt that would be much of an issue anywhere), and I doubt anything too bad would come up. I generally come here to talk politics.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Lyin' Ted regret stealing Colorado now? on: April 27, 2016, 02:14:52 am
Romney/McCaskill and Hillary/R for Congress voters will probably be very similar. Predominantly female, suburban, middle aged, middle class. They will lead Hillary to a comfortable victory, like McCaskill, and still mostly vote Republican downticket.

It's a very useful analogy to make. The problem is in their numbers -- Romney was successfully able to motivate lots of people to come out and vote for him, even if it was ultimately not enough. Can Republican Senators do the same?

One of the things that is forgotten, because it will be near-meaningless in the presidential race, is how low Hillary's own favorabilities are. The presidential race will be a referendum on Trump (proceeding in the assumption that even he is incapable of ing up the nomination at this point). Congressional races don't have to be a referendum on Trump -- a skillful campaign can make it a referendum about Hillary. This is probably the best bet for keeping the Senate.
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Lyin' Ted regret stealing Colorado now? on: April 27, 2016, 01:32:26 am
And do you think they really want Hillary to lose? Let's get real here. They want her coronation and Trumps gonna hand it to her on a platter.

Oh, of course. They don't need Trump to be winning or losing for the ratings. They just need him to exist. Having backed him in the primaries, he'll continue to exist until November. Though the point is sort of moot because after the primary campaign he waged I doubt Trump could win even if the media was actually, honestly fully behind him. Hillary might as well already be President.

The question is how many Romney/McCaskill voters there are; or, Hillary/R for Congress. The House is probably safe, both because of the gerrymander and because of how many winnable races Democrats have failed to recruit warm bodies for, but the Senate is probably lost without a lot of luck. McGinty and not Sestak getting nominated tonight was a break.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: PPP PA/CT/RI close on Democratic side, large Trump leads on: April 27, 2016, 01:21:36 am
The #NeverTrump movement is toast.

Again, #NeverTrump is Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump in the general election.  It isn't toast unless/until Trump is elected president.


It is toast when Trump becomes the nominee, the same way PUMA was toast when Obama became the nominee.

Unlike with the PUMAs, there are way too many high profile Republicans (both politicians and conservative media types) who've thrown in their lot with #NeverTrump for all of them to backtrack now.  There is no going back.

For that matter, I think #NeverTrump will grow among Republicans in Congress after Trump is nominated.  As of now, many of them have simply dodged the question as to whether they would endorse him if he's nominated.  But once he is nominated, it's no longer a hypothetical.  They'll have to choose.


There you go again.

Sometimes it seems like you live on another planet.
Perhaps you are just playing with us, Trump supporters.

It's just not happening in the real world. Can you give an example of anything remotely similar to what you're saying happening anywhere in the world ever?


Absolutely. Michael Foot, a totally unacceptable leader, became leader of the Labour Party in the UK in 1980. In response, numerous Labour politicians left the party to form a new one. Many voters followed them and Foot led Labour to their worst result in 65 years -- in spite of consistently attracting the largest crowds and the most fervent supporters.

In America, George McGovern received the Democratic nomination and numerous Democrats (led by future President Jimmy Carter) fled for Nixon. Eight years earlier, Barry Goldwater received the Republican nomination and the same thing happened.

This happens all the time, Ljube. Trump supporters are not playing, but neither are Trump opponents, as you seem bizarrely convinced is the case.
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Lyin' Ted regret stealing Colorado now? on: April 27, 2016, 01:17:53 am
Yet another illustration why the media is to blame for this primary.  They're all liberals who want the destruction of the Reagan Coalition, so they used their power over people to push this likely Democratic double-agent to kill the conservative movement.

You're overthinking this, my friend. All they want is ratings. Normally, a close election provides ratings, so they do whatever they can to make an election close, which involves always rooting for the underdog whatever their ideological stripes are. Trump, however, scrambled the calculus by ensuring that ratings are high so long as he is present, whether the race is close or not. Thus, the media backs Trump.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Hillary pull a McCaskill? on: April 27, 2016, 12:45:33 am
Everyone would see through this at once. The strategy worked way too well for McCaskill to be repeatable. The Akin comparisons would be instantaneous.
61  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump narrowly loses, who will his apprentice be? on: April 27, 2016, 12:34:09 am
There'll be politicians trying to appeal to ex-Trump supporters (I think Christie especially is trying to be a successor-candidate in 2020), but no one is going to adopt the Trump style fully. Partly because certain aspects of it are unique to Trump and cannot be copied (the media domination requires a background being a celebrity, and getting taken seriously as a presidential candidate requires some sort of background in either business/politics/the military; nobody I can think of besides Trump can check both boxes except maybe Joe Scarborough, who is nowhere near exciting enough to be a Trump-successor; I don't watch much television and am open to other ideas, though), and partly because the Trump style, taken as a whole, doesn't really work -- Trump's victory in the primaries now (which is probably likelier than not after last night, but still isn't completely a done deal) was entirely due to the split field and the missteps of his opponents; and Trump's style in a general election simply does not work.

Wordy paragraph, but a very important point to be made.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Jolly reconsidering on: April 26, 2016, 11:56:38 pm
Crist is very popular in his home region, though. He carried Pinellas County in 2010 even as he lost the state by 19 points.
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 11:55:05 pm
Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Yes, but as Hispanic Republicans, they are already Republicans. That's not the type of voter he needs to convince.
True, but they could have been on the #NeverTrump bandwagon.


Arguably, to win, Trump needs to convince only the #NeverTrump bunch. He does not need to reach out to the Democrats. He's already got a number of them in states where it counts (OH, PA, MI).

I can tell you from the ground here in Ohio that, whatever "Democrats" Trump may have, there are zero people who voted for Obama in 2012 who will vote for Trump. A small number who were particularly enthused to vote for Obama specifically may sit the election out, but nobody is voting for Trump.
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Lyin' Ted regret stealing Colorado now? on: April 26, 2016, 11:52:16 pm
Of course not. You don't intentionally lose something to win something else later. That's not how democracy works and it isn't how democracy should work.

Incidentally, Cruz is stupid for not finding some people who attended some precinct caucuses and making an ad with them saying they voted in Colorado for Ted Cruz and castigating Trump. Put it on YouTube and it'll get hits, no need to even buy air-time. It's a very logical response to the "stealing" charge.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is the shame threshold? on: April 26, 2016, 11:50:09 pm
Trump in first-place and not winning the nomination probably hurts the GOP to some extent, though I remain convinced that basically nothing -- including him at 1500 and the discovery of some technicality -- would actually hurt more than nominating Trump. It's a lose-lose scenario, though.

As to what the threshold is at which it wouldn't be taken away, that's easy to say; if Trump receives 1,236 delegates on the first ballot he's lost. It's important to remember that his opponent isn't Reince Priebus, it's Ted Cruz, Mr. Procedural Extremist. Cruz would take it from Trump even if the establishment were pleading with him not to.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Jolly reconsidering on: April 26, 2016, 11:41:39 pm
Jolly could win his current, redistricted congressional district, but he would need a good year and a bad opponent. He has neither.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 4/26 Congressional Primary Results Thread: Maryland & Pennsylvania on: April 26, 2016, 11:40:46 pm
-I preferred Edwards, but I have no complaints about Van Hollen. Expect to see him rocket up the leadership.

If Van Hollen was interested in congressional leadership, he would probably have stayed in the House; he was the favorite to succeed Pelosi (assuming, as we have long thought, Pelosi and Hoyer intend to retire in tandem). That would probably be Becerra now.

No, I think this run indicates Van Hollen has his eye on something more prestigious than congressional leadership.
It is not so much that they want to retire in tandem, but that Pelosi would rather go to the grave than hand the leadership of the House Democrats to Steny Hoyer.

True, but I felt like explaining the whole situation was unnecessary to my broader point (that van Hollen's move makes no sense unless he intends to run for President at some point). Pelosi won't retire until Hoyer does, and Hoyer still thinks he can outlive Pelosi and become Speaker.

Assuming they're both in good health (they're both 76, so big assumption) this scenario could easily continue for decades. I wonder if anyone knows what the longest stretch in American history between someone abandoning the Speakership and then reclaiming it is, and if Pelosi has a chance to beat that if she regains it like 10 years from now.
68  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is it to possible to be nationalist toward a group that one is not born into? on: April 26, 2016, 11:35:20 pm
Yes. The community I come from in New York City is a fantastic example of the phenomenon, by the way. It is overwhelmingly Soviet-born and overwhelmingly American-nationalist.
69  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you vote for Spanish PM? on: April 26, 2016, 11:32:40 pm
I suppose Rivera; Ciudadanos are far from perfect but PP seem to be almost openly corrupt and Ciudadanos can act as a moderating influence on a lefty government until the mainstream right in Spain gets its sh**t together.
70  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Delegate Fight: 2016 on: April 26, 2016, 11:27:18 pm
Just had a very interesting thought: Is it within the power of the CA Republican Party to open up their primary and flood the zone with Hispanic Dems to stop Trump?

Too late for 2016. I'm assuming in 2020 we'll get to see lots more proportionality. Possibly lots more cauci, but perhaps they won't go for that -- in the long run the threat to the Republican establishment comes from socons and libertarians, not Trump types.
71  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Has your opinion of Bernie Sanders changed in the last few months? on: April 26, 2016, 10:53:16 pm
Went from hating him when he was a Senator, to kinda-sorta respecting him during the early part of his campaign due to him seeming like a person with a lot of integrity fighting against the Machine, to hating him again due to his terrible foreign policy views.

EDIT: Oddly enough, Cruz has had basically the same trajectory in my book.
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump U case will go to trial on: April 26, 2016, 10:43:30 pm
Good luck with that. Just wait until HRC brings out all the Trump U people, all the sob stories. The media will eat it up while he is on trial.
I think we both know Trump won't apologize or act apologetic to the people telling sob stories. He will most likely do to them what he did to Jeb.

Trump might discredit them on a campaign trail, but the rules of the courtroom are not the rules of the campaign. Insults don't help you.
I'd be shocked if Trump's confident dismissal of all the plaintiffs' claims don't lead to a ruling in his favor.

Trump has confidently dismissed plantiffs' claims and lost court cases a bunch of times over the past 20 years. His record in the courtroom is not good.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump U case will go to trial on: April 26, 2016, 10:37:56 pm
Good luck with that. Just wait until HRC brings out all the Trump U people, all the sob stories. The media will eat it up while he is on trial.
I think we both know Trump won't apologize or act apologetic to the people telling sob stories. He will most likely do to them what he did to Jeb.

Trump might discredit them on a campaign trail, but the rules of the courtroom are not the rules of the campaign. Insults don't help you.
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 10:35:44 pm
Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Anecdote isn't evidence. You know one Russian-American Republican, I presume (me), and I'm strongly anti-Trump; nevertheless, the community as a whole gave Trump over 80% of the vote. Essentially all polling has shown that Trump would receive less than half of the Hispanic support Mitt Romney got, and roughly a quarter of what George Bush got.

This is especially the case in Florida, where there is a community of Hispanic Republicans and they despise Trump. Nevada Hispanic Republicans are more likely to be individual contrarians who would consider pulling the lever for Trump; Trump loses there by ginning up turnout among normal, Democratic-leaning (or not even that, just very anti-Trump) Hispanics.
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 10:26:31 pm
If he gets a similar resort boost in the general, could that put him over the top in FL and NV in a competitive race?  Trouble for him is that both states are also very Hispanic in the general electorate.

Primary electorates (for both parties) and general electorates are not similar. Trump is significantly weaker in both FL and NV than generic R because of how much weaker he is with the Hispanic vote (especially in Florida, which is home to one of the Republican-voting groups that Trump collapses with -- the Cubans).

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
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