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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders town hall meeting degenerates into shouting match over Israel on: August 21, 2014, 12:01:53 am
It's a good thing Sanders is at least reasonable on some things if he's going to run for President.
52  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will ACA be (at least mostly) the law of the land in ten years from now? on: August 20, 2014, 09:34:49 pm
The likeliest option -- that it will never be fully repealed but will slowly be amended into something that looks very little like the original bill -- was left out Huh
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What if West Virginia never split off from Virginia? on: August 20, 2014, 03:49:41 pm
WVa during Byrd yrs was Dem dominated, while VA was GOP favored during 60's.

It started changing when John Warner, who wasnt a segregationalist was elected to senate.

On the contrary, the Byrd machine dominated Virginia, not West Virginia. John Warner's election in 1978 was long after the end of its dominance, though some figures still held office then (like Harry Byrd, Jr.). William Spong's victory in the Democratic Senate primary in 1966, Harry Byrd Sr.'s death that same year, and Linwood Holton being elected Governor in 1969 were the nails in the coffin. Warner was elected to the Senate some ten years later.
54  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: "Death to the Jews"... on: August 20, 2014, 03:11:38 pm
In Austria, there are 3 towns (out of 2400) with "Jews" in their name:

* Judenburg ("Jew's Castle")
* Judenau-Baumgarten ("Jew's Floodplain-Tree Garden")
* Judendorf-Straßengel ("Jew's Village-Street Angel")

"Jewish Castle", "Jewish Floodplain", and "Jewish Village" are much more innocuous names than "Death to the Jews", though.

I never want to read a post bashing America again.

...

What's so confusing?

That Sanchez never wants to read another criticism of Murica again because of an amusingly named historical curiosity with a population of what... fifteen people (?) in the middle of nowhere is a typically dense post from the kid.

I think he was referring, rather hyperbolically, to Europeans discussing racism as an exclusively American issue when western European countries have towns with offensive names (and more broadly, European countries' own problems with minorities).

EDIT: Made my own wording clearer.
55  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: August 20, 2014, 03:09:54 pm
Considering Liberals are surging in Alberta, what do Duncan's chances in Strathcona look like? Will the left-wing vote gravitate to her like it did in 2011, or could she be unseated? (By Liberals or Conservatives)?
56  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: "Death to the Jews"... on: August 20, 2014, 03:00:14 pm
In Austria, there are 3 towns (out of 2400) with "Jews" in their name:

* Judenburg ("Jew's Castle")
* Judenau-Baumgarten ("Jew's Floodplain-Tree Garden")
* Judendorf-Straßengel ("Jew's Village-Street Angel")

"Jewish Castle", "Jewish Floodplain", and "Jewish Village" are much more innocuous names than "Death to the Jews", though.

I never want to read a post bashing America again.

...

What's so confusing?
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight: 6 Most Likely Tipping Point Races on: August 20, 2014, 02:57:59 pm
Yeah
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Any hope for Gov. Corbett? on: August 20, 2014, 02:32:19 pm
I don't think even significant movement towards the Republicans before November would be enough to save Corbett at this point. He needs significant missteps from Wolf.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (August 19: AK, WY) on: August 20, 2014, 01:29:46 am
So much for Treadwell surging at the end, I suppose, and Miller did shockingly well -- thankfully it doesn't look like quite as shocking as it could've right now (knock on wood)...
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Had King not run in Maine on: August 19, 2014, 10:37:06 pm
The Democrats would probably have nominated someone better than Dill, but if those where the candidates Summers would've won.
61  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: RISK Domination XI: Round 7 (HagridOfTheDeep) on: August 19, 2014, 07:51:30 pm
...interested to see where you're going with this, Hagrid.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How would have Hillary's 2008 map differed? on: August 19, 2014, 07:11:37 pm
McCain gains back Indiana and North Carolina (and NE-1); Clinton gains Arkansas, Missouri, and West Virginia -- maybe also Montana. She does slightly better in the popular vote but slightly worse in the Electoral College.

63  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which is the weirder assumption out of these options? on: August 18, 2014, 04:54:35 pm
Option 1.

I mean, I wouldn't find a vegan week some horrible challenge, but I can see that if you were used to a certain style of diet, it could be hard to think what would make a full, satisfying meal. But the idea of "politics" as some necessary sustenance is bizarre.

This (normal)
64  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Noam Chomsky on: August 18, 2014, 03:04:12 pm
Terrible HP on politics, linguistics, and nearly every project he's embarked on throughout his horrible life.
65  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which would you rather do for one whole week? on: August 18, 2014, 10:52:54 am
Option 1 (normal)
66  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Amanda Curtis? on: August 17, 2014, 06:38:15 pm
Voted 'FF'. I rather like her, and think she's a good messenger for the Democrats. But Montana is not the kind of state where her kind of message has a lot of draw, and Daines will crush her.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What channel will you watch during Election Night? on: August 17, 2014, 06:36:06 pm
Definitely DKE, RRH, Atlas (if it isn't down), and anything I can livestream online. Several friends who likely will be watching election night coverage will be sure to text me anything that strikes them as significant (as in 2012).
68  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul on: August 17, 2014, 12:39:15 am
Paul/Clinton, but who knows, maybe Paul/Paul Tongue
69  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Did your mother keep or change her name when she got married? on: August 16, 2014, 10:36:58 pm
I voted 'other'. My mother kept her maiden name when she was married (and that was the name she had when I was born, though I inherited only my father's last name), but she ended up changing her last name to my father's six years later (six years after their marriage, that is) at the same time as she Anglicized her first and middle names, since my father's last name was on balance easier for Americans.
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which states will the GOP win? on: August 16, 2014, 10:16:01 pm
At the moment, they seem favored in all of these but the last two and Alaska, and it seems that in Alaska it's the lack of a nominee keeping Begich's numbers up (the way Nunn briefly took the lead in Georgia prior to the Kingston-Perdue runoff). So I voted for all but Colorado and New Hampshire. AK, CO, IA, and NC are all arguable though.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TN-4: Winnable by Democrats? on: August 16, 2014, 10:14:10 pm
Awareness of the DesJarlais scandal might be higher now, but time has also passed. I can see Sherrell keeping DesJarlais' margin low -- maybe mid-single-digits -- but I don't know that there's a path to victory for Sherrell.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict winner/margin for Montana: Steve Daines vs Amanda Curtis on: August 16, 2014, 10:12:51 pm
This is Montana. Just because it is a purple state on a statewide level does not, in any way, mean that gun control is insanely popular.

I know. All I could find on Curtis's "anti-gun" campaigning is speaking for background checks, which 90% of Americans, and supermajorities in every state, support.

That's all there is to it. While 90% of Americans do support it, her outspoken advocacy for it will make it easy to paint her as a gun grabber, and Montana is a very rural, pro-gun state. There's a reason that it failed while 90% of Americans support it, which is that supporting it and then facing a pro-gun electorate is quite perilous because it's easy to say that you 'support gun control initiatives'. Curtis' other problem is that Democrats have almost certainly triaged Montana and won't be helping her out much. Obama lost 55-42 in a more Democratic environment than 2014. I strongly, strongly doubt Curtis will reach 40%. Daines reaching 60, on second thought, might be a bit of a reach in Montana with a third-party on the ballot, but it's not impossible; Rehberg was nothing special as a candidate, but he still beat a legitimate challenger (Monica Lindeen, who passed up this race as she thought her chances of winning were too low) 59-39 in 2006, and eclipsed 60% in 2008. The environment was much worse for Republicans then; Obama came within a few points of winning Montana in 2008.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cris's Calculations - Governors 2014 on: August 16, 2014, 08:39:12 pm
As far as CT, HI, and IL, I do see Dems winning at end.

I think this is the worse the Dems will do and we can do better than this. 23 or 24 seats tops.

I see Ige winning in the end, Malloy can still win if he runs a better campaign than Foley, but how do you possibly project Quinn beating Rauner without some sort of radical scandal/game-changer?
74  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: RISK Domination XI: Round 6 (Matt from VT) on: August 16, 2014, 08:23:27 pm
So falls the last redoubt of Hagrid's Plains empire.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict winner/margin for Montana: Steve Daines vs Amanda Curtis on: August 16, 2014, 08:09:16 pm
Apparently Curtis has appeared at rallies sponsored by MAIG, and she's criticized Max Baucus (!) for being too pro-gun. Honestly, I think Daines will eclipse 60.

Daines-61%
Curtis-36%
Roots-3%
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