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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Hillary-Romney-McCain-Kerry-Gore-Dole-Bush voter on: March 10, 2017, 11:12:21 am
Someone who normally votes Republican but is very sensitive to racial issues is probably the most logical explanation for this sequence.

Wouldn't some like that be more likely to vote for Obama than Gore or Kerry, though? Or am I misunderstanding what "very sensitive to racial issues" means...


No, you've got it right, that voter would probably rather like Obama. It's a hard list to explain in a logical fashion.

The odd thing about many of these types of threads is that it is rare to actually have individuals that talk about their own voting history, and the motivations behind their decisions.

Generally, it is more like "in theory this a XYZ voter living in a certain state/region from a certain socio-economic category and then maybe because they are part of a cultural minority (Religious/Sexual Preference, environmentalist....) that for whatever reason this explains the voting patterns.


Yes, this is one of the most tiresome things to see in these threads -- people trying to come up with theories based on stereotypes about why certain demographic groups vote the way they do.

Well, in terms of individuals, the answer is rather easy: someone who votes, as many people do, using personal characteristics and has eccentric taste. That's not very interesting. Coming up with a demographic that might've done so is more challenging and more interesting, especially on a forum dedicated to electoral demography.
52  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: French Federal Election April 2017 on: March 10, 2017, 11:09:15 am
This is rather silly since it is the French voters who chose Macron rather than the French establishment. Benoit Hamon is also running a serious campaign in this election and he is the incarnation of everything left-anti-neoliberals want to see in a candidate, with his emphasis on left-wing economic issues. It looks like voters respond to neoliberalism more strongly, at least in this instance.

I'd contest that takeaway because of the number of candidates running. Voters who might be sympathetic to left-anti-neoliberalism but are also racist (and it does us left-anti-neoliberals no good not to admit that many such people exist) are flocking to Le Pen, voters who are more hardline in their leftism to Melenchon. Voters who might actually prefer Hamon are instead going for Macron to stop Fillon and Le Pen, because the top-two runoff is a terrible terrible system. And so on. We're not seeing a "fair fight" between one left-anti-neoliberal candidate and one candidate of the technocratic center.

Sure, Macron has certain advantages over Hamon because of the system, which I note ("at least in this instance"), though virtually every election is distorted to some extent by the system used (which can be deeply frustrating when candidates like Trump pass through both a nomination and a general election process at which most voters oppose them and still win). This is still probably among the clearest-cut examples of a non-authoritarian left-anti-neoliberal party directly competing with neoliberals today, and the margin between Macron and Hamon is not particularly close; and less clear-cut examples from other Western countries seem to paint a similar story. You see a similar effect in the Netherlands, where the left-anti-neoliberal Socialist Party (who are perhaps a bit more out-there than Hamon, but which have been taken seriously enough to lead national polling as recently as 2012) trail the neoliberal Green Left (though Klaver is perhaps less blatant than Macron). Justin Trudeau out-competed Thomas Mulcair (though Mulcair tried to steer his party to the center), and in a close-to-open primary Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders by double digits. The only obvious example of left-anti-neoliberals beating Third Way-types in recent years has been the victories of Jeremy Corbyn, and those were conducted in a very small and unrepresentative electorate.

Sorry for the bit of a rant, I'm very tired after this week...but it seems to me that there's a lot of hand-wringing by people who'd like for left-anti-neoliberals to be more successful who've convinced themselves that they've gained support in the last few years, or would be more effective candidates against right-populists, when there seems to be very little evidence of that suggestion.
53  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Mattis: the worst Trump cabinet pick? on: March 10, 2017, 10:59:52 am
Probably the best literal-Cabinet pick, though if you include Cabinet-level appointees I suppose an argument could be made for Haley.
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Hillary-Romney-McCain-Kerry-Gore-Dole-Bush voter on: March 09, 2017, 07:45:24 pm
It's the Gore vote over Bush 43 that's difficult with this list. The rest of the sequence is quite logical for a certain species of not-very-ideological Republican, but that one is difficult. At some point, you have to kinda cop out and say "a Republican who happened not to like either Bush 43 or Trump". Maybe instead of the Iraq War (if they were upset enough at the Iraq War to vote for Kerry, they were likely an Obama '08 vote as well), this person was upset at Bush's racialized anti-McCain campaign in South Carolina? Someone who normally votes Republican but is very sensitive to racial issues is probably the most logical explanation for this sequence.
55  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Also-Ran vs Running Mate, 2012: Romney vs Ryan on: March 09, 2017, 07:34:44 pm
Romney now, though I would probably have picked Ryan at the time of the election.
56  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Your STV vote: Netherlands 2017 on: March 09, 2017, 07:32:41 pm
1.   Ancilla <3<3
2.   VVD
3.   SGP
4.   D66
5.   CDA
6.   PvdA
7.   GroenLinks
8.   ChristenUnie
9.   PvdD
10.   PVV
11.   50Plus
12.   Forum for Democracy
13.   VNL
14.   SP
15.   DENK
Why CU and VNL so low? Seems to me you'd definitely prefer CU over GL, and VNL's economic views fit yours to a T, which would probably be a pretty important point for you if you lived here, since taxes are very high here.

CU seems like a moderately economically-left and socially-right on a religious standpoint party: basically the opposite of what I'd like to see. As for GL, while the party as a whole has many positions I disagree with, I do in principle think that environmental conservation is an important issue and would normally be willing, in most countries, to preference a green party over a "standard" left-wing party, though I ranked PvdA higher since they seem unsure whether they want to stay the course or transition to being the Netherlands' third liberal party, after VVD and D66. Green politics has basically the same issue as pirate politics for me, in that while I basically agree with the main issue they're concerned with, the random far-left detritus that green parties tend to attract turns me off.

I ranked VNL low since I was under the impression they were led by a total buffoon in Jan Roos and I thought they were basically struggling to enter as a far-right competitor to PVV, not much different from Baudet's outfit, though scrolling through their Wikipedia page and taking a quick look at their tax policy, maybe they indeed should be higher -- between GL and CU seems logical. Hard to say, really.
57  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: French Federal Election April 2017 on: March 09, 2017, 07:25:30 pm
My rankings of the top five candidates...
[1] Macron
[2] Fillon
[3] Hamon
[4] LePen
[5] Melenchon

This looks about right. Fillon might be better on some issues than Macron, but Macron is a better candidate, and it's nice to see an independent break through the system. It's too bad France never seems to have a viable classical liberal option.

Over the course of the campaign I've gone from un-enthusiastically leaning towards Fillon over Macron to backing Macron quite intensely.

Having neoliberal Macron as their best hope to defeat Le Pen speaks volumes the Europeon establishment haven't learned a damn thing.

This is rather silly since it is the French voters who chose Macron rather than the French establishment. Benoit Hamon is also running a serious campaign in this election and he is the incarnation of everything left-anti-neoliberals want to see in a candidate, with his emphasis on left-wing economic issues. It looks like voters respond to neoliberalism more strongly, at least in this instance.
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Schwarzenegger for Senate? on: March 09, 2017, 07:20:08 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/arnold-schwarzenegger-senate-235905

Politico speculates that he may be preparing to run as an independent against Dianne Feinstein on an anti-Trump platform. Obviously he was deeply unpopular by the end of his governorship, but I do wonder how much positive press he could generate through semi-constant Twitter battles with Trump. Enough to win against an 85-year-old incumbent? Perhaps.

The article doesn't talk about who he would caucus with if he were elected -- it would be interesting to test whether you could get away with King/Orman-style refusal-to-answer in a large state. Or do California Republicans hate Feinstein enough that Schwarzenegger might still win their votes even if he says he'll caucus with the Democrats? Admitting that he'll caucus with the GOP seems like a fatal move in California in 2018.
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Democrat is most likely to WIN the primaries and general election? on: March 09, 2017, 07:16:25 pm
This list is ridiculous and I'm not going to go through it, but the answer is, probably Cory Booker, maybe Bernie Sanders. The last Democratic nominee who wasn't the prevailing choice of African-Americans was Michael Dukakis in 1988. Sanders has a strong coalition, and if anyone would be the one to break that rule, it would be him; but I wouldn't bet on it.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So apparently Gillibrand knows Chinese on: March 09, 2017, 07:14:34 pm


If this is a real tweet... How ignorant can our President possibly be... Chinese is supposedly one of the hardest languages to learn & doing so should certainly be praised- not ridiculed!

It is fake; I don't believe Trump has ever called out specifically Gillibrand in a tweet. You can probably attach 'yet' to that statement, on the other hand.

Chinese orthography is indeed incredibly difficult to learn, but Chinese grammar is fairly straightforward and is much easier to learn than many languages which are actually closer to English genealogically (like my native Russian).
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IN-SEN: Messer entering by May on: March 09, 2017, 07:12:37 pm
He said he'd decide by May, not that he was running.

Messer's actions strongly suggest that he's running. Susan Brooks has already bowed out; Rokita may still challenge him but Messer's already out to a pretty solid head start.

Really, what the hell is so bad about Messer? He's way better than Lil' Marlin, and of the Indiana Republican Congressmen, he's the closest (personally) to Pence, who's VP. He should beat Donnelly, especially after all that happened last year.

Years have their own personalities. I agree that Donnelly may be likely to be defeated at the moment, but what happened in 2016 can easily be completely reversed in 2018. Indiana is actually a very good example of this, since it's recently swung heavily together with the prevailing winds:

√ Dan Coats (Republican) 56.4%
Brad Ellsworth (Democratic) 38.1%
Rebecca Sink-Burris (Libertarian) 5.4%

√ Joe Donnelly (Democratic) 50.0%
Richard Mourdock (Republican) 44.2%
Andrew Horning (Libertarian) 5.7%

Two-year difference there. Much bigger swing than would be necessary from the 2016 results to give Donnelly a victory.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MS-SEN: McDaniel "definitely considering" run per Breitbart interview on: March 09, 2017, 07:08:52 pm
It's difficult to say how much has changed since 2012 (when gaffes far milder than many of Trump's cost Republicans victories in fairly red states; in 2014 this was less visible but you still had guys like Southerland and Terry losing) to today (when Trump is President and you have guys like Jason Lewis representing fairly moderate, suburban districts); it could be that these things are normalized only when Trump is upballot, and it could be that they are forever. This'll be an interesting question to watch out for in 2018, but I don't think Mississippi will be the place to do it, because McDaniel has no chance against Wicker, and is probably best served saving his ammo for a 2020 open seat.
63  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Brownback may soon quit as Kansas governor to become ambassador to UN on: March 09, 2017, 03:43:38 pm
Terrible as Paul LePage and Sam Brownback undoubtedly are, America's worst Governor is nevertheless very clearly Dan Malloy. He allows no competition.
64  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: French Federal Election April 2017 on: March 09, 2017, 04:02:01 am
My rankings of the top five candidates...
[1] Macron
[2] Fillon
[3] Hamon
[4] LePen
[5] Melenchon
65  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Pick a Republican ticket: MT Treasurer/Eharding or RINO Tom/Vosem on: March 09, 2017, 04:00:45 am
Guess I'll have to run from my actual home of Iowa, despite my cultural and sentimental attachment to my birthplace, the Land of Lincoln. Smiley

...I've also lived in Ohio for many years, with my Illinois avatar being an Artifact (I lived in Illinois before 2005, and still identified mostly with that state when I signed up for this forum in 2009). Still not very regionally balanced, but it won't preclude us from winning the Land of Lincoln's electoral votes.
66  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At this point, what outcome do you think is most likely and why? on: March 09, 2017, 03:56:26 am
We're in a period of time where Republicans have an inherent advantage in congressional elections and Democrats have an inherent advantage in presidential elections. So I'd imagine the 0-4 point PV Democratic win is the single likeliest possibility. It doesn't seem as yet that Trump has had any success persuading people who opposed him in 2016 to approve of him, which on the one hand is a rather ominous sign since unifying that electorate behind a single candidate is enough to crush him, but on the other hand of course 2020 is still more than 3 years away, and the economy's so far been doing well. So it depends.
67  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hypothetical Australian Republic Referendum on: March 07, 2017, 10:19:02 pm
Absolutely not. God save the Queen!
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MO-SEN: Austin Petersen interested, may run as a republican or a libertarian on: March 07, 2017, 10:12:50 pm
Petersen would definitely be better than Ann Wagner or Josh Hawley just from an ideological perspective, though I'd imagine Wagner is the most electable candidate. I'd love to vote for him if I lived in Missouri.
69  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Your STV vote: Netherlands 2017 on: March 07, 2017, 10:00:49 pm
1.   Ancilla <3<3
2.   VVD
3.   SGP
4.   D66
5.   CDA
6.   PvdA
7.   GroenLinks
8.   ChristenUnie
9.   PvdD
10.   PVV
11.   50Plus
12.   Forum for Democracy
13.   VNL
14.   SP
15.   DENK
70  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The rehabilitation of George Bush on: March 07, 2017, 06:34:16 pm
Opinion polling suggests that Bush had already been rehabilitated in the public mind by 2013-14. Trump has nothing to do with it.
71  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Democratic Runner up vs Republican runner up: Hillary Clinton vs Mike Huckabee on: March 07, 2017, 06:32:43 pm
Not very enthusiastically, but probably still Huckabee, especially in 2008.
72  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: If you could visit one officially "Communist" country... on: March 07, 2017, 06:31:09 pm
As a tourist, Vietnam sounds very, very cool. So do many places in China, though China is so large that offering it up as a choice without specifics is close to meaningless.

To liberate it, Cuba.
73  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What event sparked your interest into politics? on: March 07, 2017, 06:27:40 pm
I was effectively inspired to be interested in politics (and my interests in history, other social sciences, and so forth mainly came from my interest in politics) by John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign, at a pretty absurdly young age (11 years old). I distinctly remember being bored waiting at a barbershop in November or December 2007, reading a magazine article that was a very basic profile of McCain, and then the whole thing spiraling massively from there.
74  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Pick a Republican ticket: MT Treasurer/Eharding or RINO Tom/Vosem on: March 07, 2017, 05:09:07 pm
Well, I hadn't noticed this thread earlier, but obviously I would back myself in this match-up. Thanks for all the support, guys.

I like how Russians (of both extremely different convictions) both got to be the VP picks.

Like

Vosem/Tom would be better, but yeah. Tom/Vosem.
The further Vosem is from the ticket, the better.

Sad
75  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is the United states a nation state? on: March 07, 2017, 04:54:39 pm
2-4 are all true, though for 3 it's something that isn't really true anymore (though it was in the 1780s), so I just voted 2 & 4
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