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October 01, 2016, 07:09:55 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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51  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Have you donated to one of the presidential nominees yet? on: September 22, 2016, 04:02:19 pm
Bought a T-shirt and a lawn sign from the Johnson campaign, so yes, actually. Earlier bought a shirt from Rubio.
52  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever liked Donald Trump? on: September 22, 2016, 03:42:07 pm
Nope, he always seemed like a dick on The Apprentice (normal) and the inside of Trump Tower is ridiculously ostentatious, although the bathrooms are very nice (New Yorker).
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Race Relations with a President Trump on: September 22, 2016, 03:38:13 pm
White supremacy is validated as an ideology, as African Americans are slowly stripped of their constitutional rights (right to assemble, right to due process, unreasonable search and seizure, even right to bear arms if his recent comments are to be believed). Eventually, national voter ID is instated, and the US returns to segregation.

Are you really equating voter ID with segregation?
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Suffolk: Rubio +9 on: September 22, 2016, 03:32:49 pm
Well, if Flawless Beautiful Marco <3 <3 <3 gets to keep being a Senator from Florida and vote as if he's a Senator from Oklahoma (when he does vote, that is), then it's only fair that McCaskill gets to be re-elected, as well. Wink
That logic makes no sense, Missouri is well to the right of Florida. And Ann Wagner will take out McCaskill in tow years. Wink

If McCaskill shouldn't represent Missouri because she's too far to the left, why should Flawless Beautiful Marco <3 <3 <3 get to represent Florida, when he's way to the right of it?

Because Marco can sell his ideology, but McCaskill is incapable of selling hers. A common problem with the Democrats nowadays (see Hillary's consistent inability to break away from a total clown in polling).
55  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Angus King ("I"-ME) on: September 22, 2016, 11:28:45 am
FF, will probably switch over to the Rs after 2018 once we have our Senate majority to last the ages.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state should Hillary be more concerned about? on: September 22, 2016, 11:20:07 am
Definitely WI, considering the trends in that region. There's probably an outside chance Trump finishes third in CO.
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who would you support in MA-01 in 2016? on: September 22, 2016, 11:10:15 am
Obviously for the Libertarian in a 2-way race against pretty much any Democrat.
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA - SMOR - Kennedy and Boustany lead jungle, Fayard leads Campbell on: September 21, 2016, 11:00:29 pm
Landrieu is simply a perennial candidate who happens to have the same last name; the actual Landrieus have very publicly backed Caroline Fayard, even as JBE, who is quite popular, is running across the state for Foster Campbell. The goal here is obviously to split the Democratic vote as evenly as possible (differentiation is being kept minimal in the hopes of splitting the vote evenly, which is presumably why so many Democrats are undecided) and hope the Republicans all manage to drag each other downward. I'd imagine both finish in the high teens or low twenties in the end. The end result of the Kennedy/Boustany/Fleming pileup is unknowable, but I think the chances of 2 Democrats moving forward in a WA-Treas scenario is being underestimated (I noted in another thread that I think Caroline Fayard has a better chance of becoming a Senator than Patrick Murphy).
I'm starting to get a little worried about this race. Fleming, Maness and Cao should just drop out and endorse Kennedy or Boustany. Also, who would be favored if a Fayard vs. Campbell runoff occurs?

Campbell is known for being very anti-fossil fuels (so he'd provoke some spending against him from the very powerful oil industry in LA if he were in a runoff and had some serious chance at winning), and Fayard in general is just more conservative and has a less of a record to pin down than he does. I would actually be pretty confident of a Fayard victory in a runoff.
59  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Military Times poll of active duty troops: Trump +1...over Johnson on: September 21, 2016, 08:20:36 pm
Trump is in 3rd place amongst active duty officers?

Makes sense considering active duty officers are one of the groups that Trump has insulted most explicitly.
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Celebrity endorsement megathread on: September 21, 2016, 08:19:31 pm
Record for how fast a thread has gone utterly off the rails?

Also, the sort of person who watched The West Wing is almost certainly a Hillary Clinton supporter already, though I guess trying to lock down your base can't really hurt.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA - SMOR - Kennedy and Boustany lead jungle, Fayard leads Campbell on: September 21, 2016, 08:09:21 pm
Landrieu is simply a perennial candidate who happens to have the same last name; the actual Landrieus have very publicly backed Caroline Fayard, even as JBE, who is quite popular, is running across the state for Foster Campbell. The goal here is obviously to split the Democratic vote as evenly as possible (differentiation is being kept minimal in the hopes of splitting the vote evenly, which is presumably why so many Democrats are undecided) and hope the Republicans all manage to drag each other downward. I'd imagine both finish in the high teens or low twenties in the end. The end result of the Kennedy/Boustany/Fleming pileup is unknowable, but I think the chances of 2 Democrats moving forward in a WA-Treas scenario is being underestimated (I noted in another thread that I think Caroline Fayard has a better chance of becoming a Senator than Patrick Murphy).
62  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: National Conservatism is the true conservative ideology, not Fiscal Conservatism on: September 21, 2016, 07:26:17 pm
Who cares? Fiscal and not national conservatism is the unifying ideology of the Republican Party, which is why a part of the story of this election has been Trump's gradual bending, in his rhetoric, to Republican economic orthodoxy.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI - Marquette: Feingold +6 on: September 21, 2016, 07:14:36 pm
Who are the clowns who are backing Feingold but refuse to support Hillary against the fascist?

This is a race where I can easily imagine that most of the presidential third-party voters are supporting Feingold. I'd be very, very surprised if he didn't clearly run ahead of Hillary. Has everything to do with Feingold's strengths, not Hillary's weaknesses.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox: NV - Heck + 7 NC - Burr + 6 Portman + 14 on: September 21, 2016, 07:13:21 pm
Seems pretty clear right now that all three are up, but none of them are up by those margins. With Burr and Portman it makes sense considering the lean of the year and their states and the campaigns that have been waged.

After the Angle/Reid race in 2010, I'm loathe to call anything for Nevada Republicans until the votes come in, but it seems pretty clear the lead Heck has is at least stronger than the lead Angle had; no poll after June had her up by more than 4. (If any of you don't recall, the final average had her up 3, and Reid won by 6, so if you think the error will be similar this is no proof that Heck is winning. In 2012, on the contrary, the final average had Heller up by 4 and he won by 1; in that case, on the other hand, only one poll, a rogue September PPP, had Berkley up during the entire calendar year 2012, though there were multiple ties).

At the moment, including this poll but weirdly not including the recent PPP, RCP has Heck up 3. If the error is similar to 2012, this race is an exact tie. If it is similar to 2010, then Masto is up 6, though that seems doubtful. (In the 2014-Gov race, on the other hand, the average had Sandoval up by 25 but he won by 47; if that repeats, Heck will win by 25 points Tongue). This is exactly what makes Nevada so damn frustrating.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV-KTNV-TV13 Action News/Rasmussen Reports: Heck +4 on: September 21, 2016, 02:15:29 pm
I really wanna get excited, but this isn't just Ramussen (a terrible pollster), this is Rasmussen in Nevada (a terrible state to poll). Also, in any case, Fox News is going to have a poll here later today, which should be better-quality.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Monmouth: Ayotte +2 on: September 21, 2016, 02:14:12 pm
Would be hilarious if Ayotte ended up winning as Burr lost.
67  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Have you lost respect for Maine? on: September 21, 2016, 11:17:20 am
Alaska is still my absolute favorite state, regardless of Palin. I judge states mostly by weather/nature/environment/cityscapes, with politics playing a very small part, so Maine is still fantastic. For the record:





What makes us so much better than our neighbors?

Great Smoky Mountains National Park. North Carolina would be green too, but the mountains are outweighed by all the tobacco farms.
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC SEN - PPP - TIE on: September 21, 2016, 11:06:21 am
Kind of weird to see Trump up but Burr tied, but I digress. Burr and Ross both seem pretty unknown, so I still see nothing suggesting this won't come down essentially as Generic R versus Generic D. Recent evidence suggests Generic R should still be favored, but that's clearly going to switch at some point in the near future, and 2016 might well be the year.

McCrory is doomed and the Elon poll was an outlier, but that was already obvious.
69  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Bernie Sanders is a JUNIOR senator! He's 74! on: September 20, 2016, 11:17:57 pm
Already knew (Atlas normal).
70  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DoJ:If Disabled People Can't Use Berkeley's Free Online Courses, No One Can on: September 20, 2016, 11:17:35 pm
and justice prevails!

Yes it does. I'm sure you'd be opposed to a hospital having to build a ramp for disabled people because it's "too expensive" according to that hospital.

I'd be opposed to shutting down a hospital that refused to build that ramp, dick move though that might be, which seems like a better analogy to the situation in dead0man's post.
How is that a good analogy? Every hospital has disability access and has had it for decades.

Analogies aren't perfect. In dead0man's example, people are trying to prevent an organization that doesn't provide service to disabled people from providing service to anyone. So Left's analogy seemed inaccurate in that it leaves access to the hospital open for those who are not disabled.
71  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: In which state would the previous poster do better in? on: September 20, 2016, 10:58:54 pm
North Carolina.

Ohio or Colorado?
72  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Have you lost respect for Maine? on: September 20, 2016, 10:41:41 pm
Alaska is still my absolute favorite state, regardless of Palin. I judge states mostly by weather/nature/environment/cityscapes, with politics playing a very small part, so Maine is still fantastic. For the record:



73  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DoJ:If Disabled People Can't Use Berkeley's Free Online Courses, No One Can on: September 20, 2016, 10:34:13 pm
and justice prevails!

Yes it does. I'm sure you'd be opposed to a hospital having to build a ramp for disabled people because it's "too expensive" according to that hospital.

I'd be opposed to shutting down a hospital that refused to build that ramp, dick move though that might be, which seems like a better analogy to the situation in dead0man's post.
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: New York City mayoral election, 2017 thread on: September 20, 2016, 07:41:12 pm
I mean ignoring his general bigotry, endorsement of Trump, support for people who commit hate crimes against Muslims, the fact that he dressed up in blackface for a party, has said gay marriage will lead to "incest and beastality," his corruption (pretty sure he was actually indicted at one point), and his support for racial profiling, there's also the fact that hid evidence of over 1,000 cases of sexual abuse at orthodox Yeshivas in NYC.

Wow. That is shocking to say the least.

He must be the only Democrat in the country to have endorsed Trump.

Don't worry, we got Lieberman coming too.

Lieberman has endorsed Hillary Clinton, as befitting a neocon of his stripe.

Strange. You would think that Lieberman would support someone like Trump, who would appoint John Bolton Secretary of State and has stated that he'd start a war with Iran if he saw a Persian soldier making an "improper gesture".

You severely misunderstand both Joe Lieberman and neoconservatism in general. Anyway, while I don't think he's explicitly endorsed Trump, I do know Jim Justice has come out as #NeverHillary, so there's a decent second example.
75  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is Ljube serious about most of what he says? on: September 20, 2016, 05:48:00 pm
Most, yes (or, if not, he's one of the better actors on Atlas). All, certainly not.
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