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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-Sen: California Quake on: December 08, 2014, 05:23:36 pm
Even 2 pretty obscure Republicans, if they split the vote in the correct way, could become Senators; for this, there needs to be at least 3 reasonably prominent Democrats, though, and probably 4 (though "reasonably prominent" means over 5%), and Republicans need to hold the statewide vote to about 54-46 max margin for the Democrats, which is doable but not guaranteed; with that, we could get a split like 23R-23R-22D-22D-10D. It's doubtful but it definitely shouldn't be ruled out, and there's a lot of Democrats in California who've been waiting decades for a Senate opening. The more pertinent issue for Republicans, I think, is ensuring there're two -- but only two -- candidates.
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: December 07, 2014, 09:54:55 pm
I see -- under that circumstance, Hasson resigning for greener pastures makes sense.
53  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite British Labour Prime Minister on: December 07, 2014, 08:36:23 pm
Yeah, considering how awful all these others are it would have to be Blair.
54  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Gaffe of the year on: December 07, 2014, 08:26:26 pm
Instant reaction to this thread was to go see what @zanu_pf have to say. I was disappointed, most of the recent tweets have been bland and uninteresting and they did not mention this.

This is amusing, though I don't know if a dictator's misstatement can be considered a gaffe.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems on: December 07, 2014, 08:17:30 pm
2018 with Hillary will be ugly, but I don't see any way there wouldn't be a net gain for the Democrats in 2016.

Not that difficult -- NV is a 50/50 proposition at best, and CO is definitely vulnerable. None of the Republican seats look like they will be gimmes, like MT/WV were this year. Democrats are definitely heavily favored to take seats in 2016, but it's the way Republicans were heavily favored to gain seats in 2012 -- the chance of it not occurring exists.

And under a Republican Presidency, 2018 could be a net loss of seats too. Only MO looks like a really certain GOP pickup, and in a good Democratic year it's plausible y'all could gain AZ and NV and hold your vulnerable Northern seats.

Bennet ain't losing if Hillary is winning the state.

Hasn't PPP shown Hillary barely leading Ted Cruz in Colorado? That's by no means guaranteed. Hillary is significantly weaker in CO than Obama.

Frighteningly plausible. Hell, Toomey and Johnson could pull it out.

I'd like to see what a Johnson/Hillary Clinton voter looks like.

Maybe similar to a Gore/Santorum voter in 2000?

Santorum was a populist and friendly with the unions.
Johnson is a hardcore tea-partier that has nothing to show during his first 4 years as a senator other that partisan attacks and gridlock.

That's what a bit more than half the typical Wisconsin electorate is looking for, so I don't know why you expect them to hold it against Johnson.

And under a Republican Presidency, 2018 could be a net loss of seats too. Only MO looks like a really certain GOP pickup, and in a good Democratic year it's plausible y'all could gain AZ and NV and hold your vulnerable Northern seats.

I dunno, a lot of states in 2010 went Republican when they logically should have went Democratic after 2008, so...

Why? 2010 was a midterm under a Democratic Presidency. Losses were to be expected, even if the size might not have been anticipated prior to Scott Brown's victory. If 2018 is also a midterm under a Democratic presidency, it'll probably look like 2010/2014. If it is a Republican midterm, Democrats might enjoy a small pickup.
56  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which country's party system is most similar to yours? on: December 07, 2014, 06:49:23 pm
The only country that looks remotely similar to the US, politically, is Australia.
57  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: David Duke v Barack Obama on: December 07, 2014, 06:48:49 pm
Edwin Edwards defeated Duke 61-39 in 1991. While Edwards was white, he was also known to be corrupt even then and would have easily lost to a non-Klansman opponent. Also, presumably LA was more racist 23 years ago. So Obama.

It matters how this scenario came to pass, though (and is it for the Presidency? It wasn't specified). How did David Duke become the Republican nominee? Either he's managed to completely redeem himself (did he singlehandedly save the world or something?) or it was some kind of nefarious trick. In the former scenario, he wins LA because he's done something big to overcome his obvious issues. In the latter, there's a good chance that he ends up being a de facto third party nominee with the "true" Republican candidate being a third party or write-in candidate, in which case he comes third.

Why would David Duke need to redeem himself to win a Republican primary? Most Republican primary voters are mini David Dukes.

Considering David Duke ran for the Republican nomination for President in 1992 and got a grand total of 0.94% of the vote (and no delegates), and the country has gotten significantly less racist since then, that seems pretty suspect.
58  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Overall, should teacher salaries in the US be increased? on: December 07, 2014, 06:38:55 pm
Depends where and who, but in general, yes (voted yes), particularly high school teachers/teachers of AP subjects or otherwise crucial or difficult courses. Administrators, by contrast, need to be paid significantly less.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: December 07, 2014, 06:34:26 pm
Is the agreement between Mofaz and Herzog going to be just for Mofaz, who'll just switch parties leaving Kadima to flounder under the threshold, or is it going to be a full alliance between Labor and Kadima, in which case Tirosh might get a position on the list, say in the teens? I thought it was going to be the latter, but Hasson resigning smells like Mofaz might be going for the former.

There is no longer such a thing as Kadima separate from Mofaz,  if he joins then that is the same as the party joining labour, regardless of whether other members come with him.

But the point of the question was, would other members (like Tirosh) also receive guaranteed positions on the Labor list? Even if the second Kadima member gets a spot in the teens, that's still a pretty realistic shot at getting back in the Knesset. Hasson resigning seems to point to no (though, since Hasson was originally a floor-crosser from Yisrael Beiteinu, maybe he just doesn't want to be associated with Labor).
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: December 07, 2014, 06:17:17 pm
Is the agreement between Mofaz and Herzog going to be just for Mofaz, who'll just switch parties leaving Kadima to flounder under the threshold, or is it going to be a full alliance between Labor and Kadima, in which case Tirosh might get a position on the list, say in the teens? I thought it was going to be the latter, but Hasson resigning smells like Mofaz might be going for the former.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-Sen: Ralston rates Reid foes on: December 07, 2014, 06:11:42 pm
Reid's main focus would be to drive Sandoval's favorables down early and he would have a good opportunity to do that. With Republicans in control of the Senate, that makes it a little easier for Reid to play defense and tie Sandoval to ineffective leadership.

Wouldn't it be much easier for Sandoval to tie Reid to ineffective leadership, since Reid is, unlike Sandoval, an ineffective leader?

Sandoval, of course, has no need to dirty himself trying to get Reid's favorables down; they're already horrendous. The optics of Sandoval running a positive campaign in the face of Reid's negativity would also be fantastic for Reid, I'm sure.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems on: December 07, 2014, 06:08:39 pm
2018 with Hillary will be ugly, but I don't see any way there wouldn't be a net gain for the Democrats in 2016.

Not that difficult -- NV is a 50/50 proposition at best, and CO is definitely vulnerable. None of the Republican seats look like they will be gimmes, like MT/WV were this year. Democrats are definitely heavily favored to take seats in 2016, but it's the way Republicans were heavily favored to gain seats in 2012 -- the chance of it not occurring exists.

And under a Republican Presidency, 2018 could be a net loss of seats too. Only MO looks like a really certain GOP pickup, and in a good Democratic year it's plausible y'all could gain AZ and NV and hold your vulnerable Northern seats.
63  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: David Duke v Barack Obama on: December 07, 2014, 02:35:49 pm
Obama would destroy Duke. Duke would barely eclipse 50% of whites, and in Louisiana a Democrat can comfortably with 1/3 the white vote. I do like the interesting reversal of the Democrats in the thread insisting on a Republican victory and all the Republicans insisting on a Democratic victory; the attitude displayed here is why Democrats won't be winning in real-world Louisiana any time soon (short of some bizarre cataclysmic event like David Duke being nominated).
64  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Hey BRTD on: December 07, 2014, 03:04:15 am
Is it on iOS now? I may get it over Winter Break.
65  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which poster is the previous poster a sock of? on: December 07, 2014, 03:03:16 am
Yougo
66  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is this the dumbest election prediction in Atlas history? on: December 07, 2014, 03:02:33 am
I can't think of a worse one off the top of my head, but Atlas has been around since 2003 and just in the time I've been here (since 2009) there've been some real oddballs, so I kinda doubt it.
67  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Winston Churchill on: December 07, 2014, 03:00:46 am
One of the biggest FFs of the twentieth century. Rest in peace, and I hope we are blessed with more like you.
68  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which losing incumbent will you miss the most? on: December 07, 2014, 02:59:28 am
I suppose Begich is the least bad of the five (voted for him), but Dan Sullivan will be a definite improvement.
69  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: "The Ireland That We Dreamed Of" vs the "Celtic Tiger"? on: December 07, 2014, 02:58:47 am
Of course the Celtic tiger was a fantastic vision, while the dreamed-of Ireland was a terrifying place.
70  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Least Favorite New Senator on: December 07, 2014, 02:58:09 am
How is Peters not doing better? He's a Democrat, guys.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: December 07, 2014, 01:17:00 am
Possibly the name Labor won't be used (it wasn't in 1999 when Labor ran a joint list with Gesher and Meimad; that was called "One Israel", but it was Labor in all but name), but it would still be Labor and voters would understand this. If they want to not say Labor but have voters understand that it is Labor, the historical names that have been used are Yisrael Ahat ("One Israel") and HaMa'arakh ("Alignment", which was the name Labor went by for 22 years, 1969-1991).

Or they could just say Labor-Hatnuah-Kadima; there's precedent for stringing three party names together instead of coming up with a new name. It's four that would set a record.

Too bad Sharon couldn't have hung on for a few more months. It would have been amusing to see him become a Labor party member against his will.  Would show how far to the right Israeli politics has moved.

Huh? If Sharon had hung on for a few more months, Kadima would have won a bigger victory in 2006. Kadima was a major party for 7 years purely off of Sharon's legacy; the longer he lives, the more established Kadima would be as a major party. Eventually, Labor may have joined Sharon's Kadima rather than the reverse.
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can Landrieu be satisfied with her result? on: December 07, 2014, 12:37:36 am
No, because she could've kept single digits, and the status angryGreatness mentioned, had the Keystone pipeline passed. Also she thought, throughout the campaign, she would win on Election Night, so no.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: December 07, 2014, 12:35:53 am
I don't know that we can call this a Blanching. Blanche Lincoln lost by 21 points, George McGovern by 19, Mark Pryor by 18, Rick Santorum by 16. Mary Landrieu lost by 12, which actually seems to me like a reasonably good showing for a Democrat running statewide in modern-day Louisiana.

Santorum actually lost by 18 (59-41).

And I'm saying this just to annoy Phil, but when you go to the decimal point, Santorum actually lost by 0.2 more than Pryor. Wink

Ah, my mistake. The point still stands, that Landrieu isn't quite in that category Tongue
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Louisiana Democrat has a higher chance of winning? on: December 07, 2014, 12:32:56 am
Edwards lost by 24 points, Mayo lost by 28 points. This despite the fact that Edwards was running in an R+19 district and Mayo's district was R+14. Racist Louisiana strikes again.

Edwards' length of "service" to Louisiana might also have played a role. I think I commented elsewhere that if he'd switched parties upon leaving prison, he'd be headed to the House right now. Whatever other Democrat would've ran would've gotten first/second place, and he'd be the top Republican.

If he'd switched and waited till 2015, he could've had a reasonable chance of returning to the Governor's Mansion (probably the office he really wants).
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: December 07, 2014, 12:21:31 am
I don't know that we can call this a Blanching. Blanche Lincoln lost by 21 points, George McGovern by 19, Mark Pryor by 18, Rick Santorum by 16. Mary Landrieu lost by 12, which actually seems to me like a reasonably good showing for a Democrat running statewide in modern-day Louisiana.
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