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September 23, 2017, 04:24:58 am
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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: TN-Sen: Corker, Blackburn statistically tied in GOP Primary on: June 26, 2017, 09:08:27 pm
Alexander is usually considered to be rather likely to retire in 2020, which (combined with his closeness to the Trump Administration) will probably work to save Corker from the firebreathers.
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rob Portman of 2018 on: June 26, 2017, 09:05:56 pm
^Tester isn't going to be the next Rob Portman. Unlike OH in 2015/2016, most people don't even consider the MT Senate race competitive right now and believe he is heavily favored (or safe). While it's true that there is no obvious candidate yet, I think the party will field a competent Republican in the end (hopefully Rosendale or Olszewski). MT is way too polarized for Tester to win easily, and he doesn't have as much crossover appeal as Heitkamp and Manchin.

Actually, I think the party that wins the OH Senate race will also win in MT, but who knows.

I agree in the sense that I think ultimately Tester and Brown will both be reelected (the latter mainly due to usual anti-presidential midterm effects), but I'm also pretty confident that Mandel is the best recruit the NRSC has found this cycle and in general is one of the strongest candidates on the (pretty wide) OHGOP bench, who Democrats have been swinging at unsuccessfully for most of a decade. Which makes this forum's continued belief that he's terrible seem very, very odd.

Definitely most people consider a Democrat in a Trump+24 state vulnerable. Whether that's correct or not is the point of this thread.

I always though Kasich was the strongest candidate? Isn't his approval rating really high over there?

Certainly, but Kasich's not really interested in anything less than President at this point. I'm comparing Mandel to the other Republican Senate candidates recruited (like Evan Jenkins or the several random congresscritters in Indiana they're trying to sweep aside in favor of Curtis Hill).
53  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is Emmanuel Macron a "centre-left" politician? on: June 26, 2017, 04:06:08 pm
A plurality of his voters describe themselves as either centrists or somewhat to the left of it; his most immediate political adversaries seem to be to his right rather than his left; and he and his movement clearly originate from within left forces in France. Saying that he's not center-left seems like a deliberate blindness, or at least an attempt to define words as different from the ways they are most commonly used.

Voted yes and am quite willing to defend this.

So you'd presumably be quite willing to argue that austerity is left-of-center. Good luck with that. And who the Hell cares what a plurality of his voters define themselves as - their idea of 'left' is simply 'not being Marine le Pen'.

"Austerity" is such a radically vague and meaningless word that depending on the context and country it can be anything at all, from very far-left to very far-right.
54  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Liberals...do you realize Trump is "winning"? on: June 26, 2017, 04:03:38 pm
Whether it's Gorsuch and likely more SC appointments in the future, loading the Federal courts, leaving TPP and Paris, the travel ban, the nothing-burger of "Russia-gate"....do you all realize he's winning?

As someone who politically opposed Obama, once I admitted to myself Obama had in essence "won", it was easier to move on and focus on the future.

Leaving TPP was at least as big of a defeat for conservatism as the passage of Obamacare in the first place, and probably more of one since it was completely self-inflicted.
55  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: At what point does a senator become entrenched/untouchable? on: June 26, 2017, 04:01:53 pm
Never. Dick Lugar was popular enough not to get an opponent in 2006 but still lost the primary in 2012. Political climates and relevant issues shift, and entrenched/untouchable members often get behind the times.

Along the same lines, the two most vulnerable Senators in 2018 to primary challenge are probably Hatch and Menendez, both of whom seemed like pretty popular entrenched Senators six years ago.
56  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Emmanuel Macron on: June 26, 2017, 03:59:21 pm
Worthless snake oil salesman
This. He's all fake.

I enjoy that both your populist-left and populist-right literally can't comprehend that people might want exactly what Macron is proposing.
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: More likely Democratic pickup? on: June 26, 2017, 03:56:30 pm
Nevada, because it's hard to predict what the political climate will be in 2020 while I think the 2018 one is already locked in absent an unlikely very large shock to the system, and because I think Gardner is more of a political talent than Heller in any case.
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE-SEN 2018: Fischer (R) running again on: June 26, 2017, 03:55:29 pm
An incredibly annoying Senator who first tried to push anti-Trump elements out of the party before backtracking and disendorsing him herself, then backtracking and reendorsing him again. Exactly the sort of meandering nonentity that makes Congress terrible.

Safe R, but by far the worst incumbent Republican up for reelection in 2018. Would probably vote for a hardcore Trumpist in the primary against her; at least then I'd know what I'd be getting.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rob Portman of 2018 on: June 26, 2017, 03:53:03 pm
^Tester isn't going to be the next Rob Portman. Unlike OH in 2015/2016, most people don't even consider the MT Senate race competitive right now and believe he is heavily favored (or safe). While it's true that there is no obvious candidate yet, I think the party will field a competent Republican in the end (hopefully Rosendale or Olszewski). MT is way too polarized for Tester to win easily, and he doesn't have as much crossover appeal as Heitkamp and Manchin.

Actually, I think the party that wins the OH Senate race will also win in MT, but who knows.

I agree in the sense that I think ultimately Tester and Brown will both be reelected (the latter mainly due to usual anti-presidential midterm effects), but I'm also pretty confident that Mandel is the best recruit the NRSC has found this cycle and in general is one of the strongest candidates on the (pretty wide) OHGOP bench, who Democrats have been swinging at unsuccessfully for most of a decade. Which makes this forum's continued belief that he's terrible seem very, very odd.

Definitely most people consider a Democrat in a Trump+24 state vulnerable. Whether that's correct or not is the point of this thread.
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rob Portman of 2018 on: June 26, 2017, 03:03:22 pm
Baldwin/Nelson/Stabenow all work as answers, but I don't think they're really top-tier targets for the GOP at all (except maybe Nelson, if only because Rick Scott seems to want to have a go at him and he'll have lots of money for that effort). Jon Tester, who's in a seemingly-competitive state but who Republicans don't even have a candidate against yet, seems like the best answer.

I continue not to understand why everyone here is convinced Mandel is a bad candidate against Brown; he's got multiple double-digit statewide victories under his belt and came within 6 points in 2012, before Ohio moved right in pretty meaningful ways. I don't think he'll win, mostly because I think 2018 will be a pretty Democratic year, but I'm pretty confident that he'd be favored outright in a neutral environment. In a polarized environment in a large state people will be more inclined to vote party than they might be against Tester/Heitkamp/Manchin (the first of which I think is certainly less endangered than Brown). Democrats also haven't won any victories by double-digits in Ohio (which is what I think being the Portman of 2018 would require) since...2006.
61  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is Emmanuel Macron a "centre-left" politician? on: June 24, 2017, 04:24:18 pm
A plurality of his voters describe themselves as either centrists or somewhat to the left of it; his most immediate political adversaries seem to be to his right rather than his left; and he and his movement clearly originate from within left forces in France. Saying that he's not center-left seems like a deliberate blindness, or at least an attempt to define words as different from the ways they are most commonly used.

Voted yes and am quite willing to defend this.
62  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Clinton vs Clinton on: June 24, 2017, 03:52:54 pm
Bill '96 (49.23%) vs. Hillary '16 (48.03%) on 2000s numbers. No CDs. Bill blue, Hillary red.



Bill Clinton/Al Gore 49.23% PV, 354 EV
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 48.03% PV, 184 EV

63  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: An ethical dilemma, which do you choose? on: June 18, 2017, 05:32:20 pm
Second option, and I consider myself fairly hawkish. I don't think a choice with a 90% chance that your nation dies out is much of a choice at all.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 18, 2017, 05:17:42 pm
How much support is there within LR for Macronismo? Are successful candidates who Macron stood aside for (like Pierre-Yves Bournazel or Franck Riester, to give two examples from the Paris area) likely to stay put in the LR parliamentary group, form their own party, or cross the floor?

And what about PS? I noticed the one PS winner from the city of Paris, George Pau-Langevin, was a close Macron ally from before he was a very prominent national figure, and is also someone Macron stood aside for.

More broadly -- what happens to elements outside of LREM/MoDem that were elected with LREM/MoDem support?
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 18, 2017, 03:25:52 pm
France 24 says that LREM headquarters is very quite and somber.  They know they totally under-performed.

Beautiful! Hopefully this is a harbinger of things to come.

More majorities for macronismo! I agree.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 18, 2017, 01:57:01 pm
On the Marianne map, there are currently 4 Communists and 3 Melenchonistas, with PS running way ahead of both groups -- even if some PS are presidential majority types, it seems like they'll still be the largest left-wing group in the next Parliament?
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 18, 2017, 01:51:44 pm
Le Pen called for proportional voting system. Just curious, what is REM's position on that? I'm guessing that just like the others they don't want to give FN a better advantage.

Macron called for a mixed-member proportional system in his campaign, with a minority of seats in the AssNat elected off party lists, but it's uncertain that he'll go through with this considering how much the present system has helped him and that the FN are his polar opposites...
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 18, 2017, 01:39:25 pm
Valls reelected

Haha, literally seconds after I thought he was sure to go
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 18, 2017, 01:23:33 pm
How many of the various LR/PS/autres candidates elected are "presidential majority" types? Paris-18, for example, was a race between an LR macronista and a PS macronista. I would ask about Manuel Valls, but on these numbers he's almost certainly lost his seat anyway, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2017 on: June 18, 2017, 01:10:33 pm
Lamb vs. Davey, then? With Lamb as the favorite?
71  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate announces new bipartisan sanctions against Russia on: June 14, 2017, 10:27:33 pm
Suggesting that Russia is inherently evil and oppressive is a little whoa, but it has to be made clear that there are consequences both for violating the international order as they have and (in an ideal world) for actual fascism, so I would get behind these. Certainly sanctions are an imperfect method but there's not much you can do against a nation with 5000 nuclear weapons.
72  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: May vs. Macron vs. Merkel on: June 14, 2017, 10:21:05 pm
Macron. I do generally like Merkel, but she seems to always do whatever the public wants at any given moment (see anti-nuclear flip-flop in 2011, accepting refugees in 2014-15 even though it was fairly obvious the public would turn against them as soon as they got there), which isn't a useful trait in a leader. May is useless, buffoonish, and authoritarian. So Macron.
73  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Ireland or Iceland? on: June 14, 2017, 10:03:10 pm
Both seem very nice. Assuming language-knowledge is handwaved, Iceland, but otherwise since I don't speak Icelandic and it seems like a deeply difficult language to learn due to a general lack of Latin or Greek roots, probably Ireland. Voted Iceland, though; climate and general culture seem preferable.
74  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Gerhard Schröder on: June 14, 2017, 09:40:43 pm
A horrible individual who happened to introduce some fairly useful reforms when he was in power. HP, but not particularly strongly so.
75  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Vote for Jeremy Corbyn or Donald Trump on: June 14, 2017, 09:39:14 pm
Donald Trump (R). Selling out to overseas tyrants is bad, but at least Trump will make a profit out of it in the end. Corbyn likes repression just on principle.
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