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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: May 09, 2015, 02:12:24 pm
What is dead can never die, but rises again, harder and stronger #FDP4ever
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 11:28:17 pm
Sinn Fein loses South Tyrone to UUP.

Really? Wow. I knew it was close last time but I assumed that was just because there was a single Unionist candidate.

It was by 4 votes last time...I wonder what the margin is.
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 11:10:49 pm
People Before Profit (the SWP in drag) get 19.2% in Belfast West to come second behind SF.

The Tories get 34 votes.
There's at least one FF constituency in this country...

Misread this as Fianna Fail instead of Freedom Fighter. No, not quite.
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 11:02:07 pm
Lib Dems return to same number of seats as 1951, 1955, 1959 and 1970.

And the vote share has gone up to 7.2%. Should make 10 seats.

The only real prospect left at this stage for a hold is North Norfolk. Perhaps Hazel Grove or Cheadle.

Not some of the southwestern seats? Yeovil?
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 10:52:18 pm
Clegg reelected!
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 10:32:32 pm
The maximum the SNP can get is now 57, since they've lost 2. Hopefully the Conservatives will pull out Berwickshire.
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 09:55:27 pm
Alasdair McDonnell holds Belfast South for the SDLP.

With 24.5% of the vote.
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 08:08:30 pm
UUP gain South Antrim from DUP

Who is UUP? The more militant Unionist faction of old?

The less militant Unionist faction of old returning to Parliament after a 6-year hiatus
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:58:40 pm
Nuneaton hold by CON on a positive swing.

First seat I got wrong:

CON - 45.5% (+4)
LAB - 34.9% (-2)
UKIP - 14.4% (+14.4)
GRN - 2.8% (+2.8 )
LD - 1.8% (-13.6%)


46-35 in Nuneaton; was 42-37 in 2010. Very encouraging.
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:52:00 pm
Clwyd South:
37% Labour
30% Conservative
16% UKIP
10% Plaid Cymru
4% Liberal Democrat
3% Green

2010:
38% Labour
30% Conservative
17% Liberal Democrat
9% Plaid Cymru
3% BNP
2% UKIP
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:47:07 pm
Lagan Valley is a DUP hold over UUP, 48-15 (it was 50-21 in 2010), while Foyle is an SDLP hold over Sinn Fein, 48-32 (it was 45-32 in 2010).
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:33:05 pm
Wrexham:
37% Labour
32% Conservative
16% UKIP
8% Plaid Cymru
5% Liberal Democrat (keep deposit)
2% Green
1% Independent

2010:
37% Labour
26% Liberal Democrat
25% Conservative
6% Plaid Cymru
3% BNP
2% UKIP
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:27:47 pm
Battersea:
52% Conservative
37% Labour
4% Liberal Democrat
3% Green
3% UKIP

2010:
47% Conservative
35% Labour
15% Liberal Democrat
1% Green
1% UKIP
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:22:52 pm
Lab win Newcastle upon Tyne Center. Tooting moved to 47-42 Labour in 2015 from 44-39 Labour in 2010; swing from minor to major parties, but basically no movement between the Top Two.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:12:39 pm
Newcastle upon Tyne East:
49% Labour
18% Conservative
13% UKIP
11% Liberal Democrat
9% Green

2010:
45% Labour
33% Liberal Democrat
16% Conservative
4% BNP
2% Green
1% Communist
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:04:02 pm
I know it's still early, but it looks like the Lib Dems might do worse than what the exit poll is suggesting.

The 10 seats would all be won on aberrational local popularity, so these results don't really indicate anything for those kinds of seats. Normally a party that wins 8% of the national vote wins no seats in the United Kingdom.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:01:04 pm
Putney:
54% Conservative
30% Labour
6% Liberal Democrat
5% Green (lost deposit, round up)
5% UKIP (likewise)

2010:
52% Conservative
28% Labour
17% Liberal Democrat
1% Green
1% BNP
1% UKIP
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 06:45:09 pm
Swindon North:
50% Conservative
28% Labour
15% UKIP
3% Green
3% Lib Dem (slightly behind Green)

2010 results:
45% Conservative
31% Labour
17% Lib Dem
4% UKIP
3% BNP
1% Green
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 06:24:15 pm
If Britain is divisible, Scotland must be divisible.

Everybody is divisible in principle, but Scotland may prove harder to divide than Britain.

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.

Are Tory voters voting ukip in safe lab seats for the hell of it?

No, but UKIP voters in Lab/Tory marginals are suspected to be backing the Tories rather than throwing their votes away. It'll be an interesting exercise, after this election, to plot margin vs. UKIP vote, to see if UKIP does better in noncompetitive seats (which I suspect is the case).
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:52:08 pm
I'm following The Daily Telegraph & The Guardian, because the American media sucks and wouldn't follow a foreign election if it's life depended on it.

The former says the SNP won every seat but one in Scotland. What is the one seat and what is the party that won it? It'd be hilarious if it was that one seat in the Southwest that the Tories already have. Its like Dumfries or something.

The safest non-SNP seat in Scotland is probably Orkney & Shetland, which are two islands far to Scotland's north that are absolutely safe for the Lib Dems, that basically stayed as a Liberal stronghold through their whole mid-20th century wilderness period.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:30:29 pm
The random far-left candidate in Washington & Sunderland West taking a selfie with the returning officer Cheesy
72  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:28:38 pm
What does "Lost deposit" mean?

Below 5%, or symbolically relegated to minor-party status in a certain constituency.

I never thought 500 quid was merely symbolic Smiley

When it happens on a massive scale in many constituencies, those 500 quid also start to add up, but usually when commentators are talking about parties losing deposits they're referring more to the loss of face than the loss of money
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:25:37 pm
What does "Lost deposit" mean?

Below 5%, or symbolically relegated to minor-party status in a certain constituency.
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:18:03 pm
538 had H&SW as 59% Labour, 22% Tories, 13% UKIP. The actual results were 55% Labour, 21% UKIP, 19% Tories. Of course the 538 model has been criticized by many here, and with good reason, but it reflects 'conventional wisdom' about this election pretty well. Now, UKIP won't be up 8% on polling numbers all around the country, but if they are in some places, that's a very good sign for them. I would feel encouraged right now if I was Farage.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 05:08:03 pm
I actually really like David Cameron as a person, but then I think Madeleine and I have noticed before that we have opposite opinions on this sort of thing.

To be fair we have opposite opinions on most things.

True, true. Still a pleasure to talk with you usually Smiley
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