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51  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What age did you first try marijuana? on: March 18, 2015, 02:37:44 pm
15. End of my sophomore year of high school
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 18, 2015, 02:11:11 pm
So Labor didn't elect their Druze after all but Yisrael Beytenu did.

As did Likud.

Have the envelope votes been counted already? Are these results nearly final, or are they actually final final?
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 11:55:41 pm
Sure, but I think most of our reactions to MK-elect Negusa are more 'sour grapes' than 'good news'.

Well, I'm of a different ideological strand than most of us here. But I do think it is a bright spot for anyone following the Israeli election Smiley
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 11:51:19 pm
There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

Actually YA had two Ethiopian MK's Shimon Solomon was number 12 on the list in 2013.

Ah, you're right, I forgot about him since he didn't run for reelection.

There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

No, we would have all been better off had Likud gotten fewer than 27 seats. Preferably a lot fewer.

Several other parties had Ethiopians somewhere on their list -- for instance, had Yesh Atid reached 13, the same end would've been achieved. I think you can agree with me that, in principle, the Ethiopian community is very distinct, even by Israeli standards, and that it's healthy and democratic for at least one person in the Knesset to be of Ethiopian origin. MK-elect Negusa will fulfill that role.
55  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 11:39:12 pm
There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 11:16:12 pm
Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

They won in some Druze places like Daliat Al-Karmel Isfiya, Hurfesh.

Akram Hassoon should really have been higher on the list than twelfth place Smiley

Daliyat Al-Karmel is a 38-23 victory for Kulanu over Labor; not much of a landslide by Israeli municipality standards, but impressive for Kulanu. (It's a little unreal in a democratic society to see town after town having a result of over 95% for the Joint List).
57  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 11:04:40 pm
Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

Nvm, I found a place -- small moshav in the north called, funnily enough, Lapidot. Results from there:

28% Kulanu
25% Likud
18% Shas
12% Zionist Union
6% Meretz
5% Yesh Atid
remainder others

Basically just a vote split. But most other parties -- even small ones like Meretz, Yahad, and Yisrael Beiteinu -- have strongholds they won overwhelmingly. Not the case for Kulanu.
58  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 11:02:03 pm
Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 10:25:58 pm
So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

Yep. And, BTW, very likely it is exactly the one that is going to hold. Because another 10 years, and the Arabs will not be asking for a state.

Why not?
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 10:21:02 pm
So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

Everybody is drafted, except for Arabs and (so far) the Haredi. So, it is not clear who is getting an extra seat (Likud would not be the prime candidate), but, yeah, JL is not likely to get its 14th (though UTJ is likely to loose its 7th).

"Envelope vote" includes several different groups, including soldiers but also prisoners. Last year, the result was to shift a single Knesset seat from the United Arab List (Ra'am) to the Jewish Home. But they were both on the line. Considering there are very few Haredi soldiers or prisoners in Israel, but Arabs are overrepresented in the prison population, I don't think it's out of the question that the envelope vote has the opposite effect this year and shifts a seat from United Torah Judaism to the Joint List -- it's only a few hundred votes that need to be made up.

The no statehood pledge brought Jewish Home members to likud to prop it up. That's why JH lost a third of its strength. It also possibly explains why Yachad missed the threshold.

It doesn't explain why Likud hit 29 seats though...

In the poll average, Likud was at 21-24 seats; let's say they were slightly underestimated, and they were at the high end of that. Let's say they got a seat from Bibi convincing non-voters to vote for him with his announcement, another three from JH, and another from Yahad. It quite easily adds up to 29.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 10:08:45 pm
Lol, this election has been extremely funny but the crying leftist people over here might be even more funny. It's a shame that my party, the Jewish Home, has been losing some seats, but it's happened for the greater good and Bennett will get a good Ministry anyway - probably Defense. I hope Likud will get this extra seat - number 30.

I strongly, strongly doubt Bennett will receive Defense. Likud will be a larger presence in this government than in the last one, while Jewish Home will be less important, so I can't imagine them giving up the Defense post. It will most likely be Ya'alon again.

JL has already counted more votes than Labor received in 2013. They will have to be taken seriously.

Let's see them stay together first. The reason the Joint List is so remarkable and historic is that the groups within it have never allied before -- certainly not in Israel, probably not in any other country either.

Would Yesh Atid be a possible coalition partner instead of some of the Orthodox parties, or instead of Kulanu?

Instead of the Orthodox parties is a possibility, considering Lieberman really doesn't want to sit with Orthodox parties and Bennett isn't much of a fan of them either, but it's unlikely, since Lapid has broadly aligned himself with ZU and Meretz during the campaign, didn't get along with Bibi when they were in government, and that Bibi has preferred alliances with Orthodox parties in the past. It wouldn't be as surprising as Labor joining Netanyahu back in 2009, though.

Instead of Kulanu would mean a coalition of Lapid together with the Orthodox parties, and that is extremely doubtful.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 09:58:15 pm
Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

I am misunderstanding something about the agreements. Could you describe again how they work?

By largest average ZU gets the seat from Meretz, not the other way around. What am I doing wrong?

I'm probably wrong in some way about how they work as well; I just assumed Meretz would get the seat since they have more remainder (.86 to .56) than Zionist Union does Tongue

It is the largest average, not the largest remainder. So ZU gets that one, and Meretz picks up its own from the general surplus. But JL, even with 13.80 quotas still has 33,466 voters per seat, whereas UTJ has 33,805, so it gets the last seat, if I am doing my calculation right. JL needs just a tiny bit more.

What exactly do you mean by largest average? Wikipedia isn't helping me here, unfortunately. My best guess is that you mean the larger of the two parties, but I feel like that's incorrect.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 09:47:07 pm
Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

I am misunderstanding something about the agreements. Could you describe again how they work?

By largest average ZU gets the seat from Meretz, not the other way around. What am I doing wrong?

I'm probably wrong in some way about how they work as well; I just assumed Meretz would get the seat since they have more remainder (.86 to .56) than Zionist Union does Tongue
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 09:35:48 pm
Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 08:35:04 pm
Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

I don't think so; Herzog may stay. Even if the Zionist Union doesn't improve from where it is now (24 seats and second place), this is clearly the best result for Labor since 1999, when they won 26 seats and their last first place to date. This is their first second place since 2006, and their first >20 result since 1999. Considering Yachimovich was barely thrown out after 2013 (which she sold as an improvement compared to 2009), when the Labor Party significantly underperformed in polling, I doubt Herzog will be thrown out after performing roughly as they were supposed to. I think he gets another shot whenever the next election is.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 08:04:42 pm
Right now, Likud leads Zionist Union, 30-24. ZU is performing exactly as they were supposed to; it is Likud which surged. Also, while Yesh Atid is in third place, they are only at 11 seats, which is a little less than they were supposed to get; this looks more impressive than it is because Joint List was supposed to do even better than that, and they are also at just 11 (and slightly behind Yesh in the popular vote).
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 17, 2015, 07:15:40 pm
After 1.993M votes (should be 47.2% of the total):

Likud: 24.81
ZU: 18.87
YA: 8.8
Kulanu: 7.68
JL: 8.1
JH: 6.21
Lieberman: 5.85
Shas: 6.12
UTJ: 5.17
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.00

If these numbers were final (which of course they won't be):
Likud 31
ZU 24
YA 11
JL 10
Kulanu 10
JH 8
Shas 8
YB 7
UTJ 6
Meretz 5
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 15, 2015, 09:13:46 pm
Knesset Jeremy was out with his average for the week of March 1-7, 2015, today. The numbers add up conveniently to exactly 120 seats.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Likud (Netanyahu) 23
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

I've had a busy weekend and missed Knesset Jeremy's last poll average, for the week of March 8-13, 2015. The numbers added up to exactly 120 seats once again.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 22
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 9
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 5
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The rush to the center from the right continued over the course of the final week. Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu lost one seat each (specifically, Netanyahu's personal choice Anat Berko and rightist Druze MK Hamad Amar) to Zionist Union and Kulanu, which gained a seat each (specifically, Eyal Ben-Reuven and Roy Folkman).

For sh**ts and giggles, I also worked out what the numbers would be if all parties over or underperform exactly the way they did in 2013. This would put Yahad under the threshold at only a 2-seat performance, so the last two seats would be given to the two parties who came closest to an extra seat in KJ's final prediction -- the Zionist Union and Yesh Atid. Would be a big leftist overperformance if this was the case (of course, so was 2013):

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 21
Likud (Netanyahu) 20
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Jewish Home (Bennett) 10
Kulanu (Kahlon) 9
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 4

My personal prediction is:

Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 19
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 13
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 12
Shas (Deri) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 4
Meretz (Gal-On) 4
Yahad (Yishai) 4

Which is basically just some minor modifications of the polls in terms of who normally over/underperforms and who I think has momentum.
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: March 12, 2015, 08:50:08 pm
Tali Ploskov, sixth on Kulanu's list, was born in Moldova, and I suspect you've missed a few others. But, very unfortunately, your basic point about the decline of Russians in the Knesset does stand Sad
70  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Giulian: Obama should be more like Bill Cosby on: March 12, 2015, 08:44:40 pm
He really should focus on repairing his relationship with his children, who reportedly can't stand him, than attacking the President.

What a weird, uncalled-for aside. Rather like the very comment that inspired this thread, as a matter of fact.
71  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Best Canadian Prime Minister Since WWII? on: March 11, 2015, 11:58:59 pm
Now that's out of the way, I repeat my question about second choices.

King, perhaps, as the man who led Canada through WW2, deserves a lot of recognition. As to your edit, "Bibi" was meant in this case as "Israeli leadership" more generally; the sentiment won't really changes if Yitzhak Herzog or Yair Lapid or whoever takes over in a week (which is doubtful, but possible; I do think Israel's reached a point with Bibi where it might be time for a change).
72  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Best Canadian Prime Minister Since WWII? on: March 11, 2015, 11:45:28 pm

May they remain so, and may Bibi gain many friends more.
73  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Worst Canadian Prime Minster Since WWII? on: March 10, 2015, 03:54:47 pm
Difficult between Pearson and Trudeau -- I'd say Pearson had more of an overall negative impact, but that was mainly from his time as Foreign Minister, whereas as Prime Minister he was pretty inoffensive. Trudeau, in the context of Prime Minister, was far worse. Still voted Pearson, since Trudeau has a bunch of votes while Pearson has none at all.
74  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine on: March 09, 2015, 11:36:47 pm
HP. I don't think I'm shocking anyone.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TN-4: DesJarlais may get primary on: March 09, 2015, 03:49:11 pm
I thought the fellow who tried to primary Lamar Alexander last year was going to go after DesJarlais? Either way, I hope DesJarlais loses.
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