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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Democrats set to sweep PA Supreme Court open seats on: November 03, 2015, 11:05:10 pm
This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Is Jack Conway's political career over? on: November 03, 2015, 08:43:21 pm
Far from it.  The fact that he's even won statewide office before proves that he has a lot of potential for the future.  One loss won't end his entire career.

the guy only won statewide elections because they were races where the spotlight wasn't on him. With the spotlight on him, he chokes EVERY TIME. Conway's career is done like Disco.
He's moderate enough to beat any anti-Democrat streak.  Obama dragged him down this year (and in 2010).  Come 2017, when Obama is out of the White House, all bets are off.

Conway has fought 5 elections. The two times that Republicans didn't seriously challenge him (when he ran for Atty Gen in 2007 and 2011), he obviously won. The three competitive races he ran, for the House in 2002, for the Senate in 2010, and for Governor in 2015, he all lost. The 2010 election can be excused by climate and location. The other two just cannot (the House district he lost, by the way, was held by the Democrats in 2010 under the same lines he lost it under). There is more Democratic talent than just Jack Conway in Kentucky. He is finished.
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: KS: Brownback approval at 18% on: November 01, 2015, 10:59:56 pm
As punishment for failing to beat this guy, the Kansas Democratic Party should definitely be made to disband.
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Vox Populi (R): Paul leads Edelen on: November 01, 2015, 12:31:05 am
What Democrats will try to do here in the event of an Edelen candidacy is try to distract Republican monies and have some wave insurance. Edelen will probably manage both quite respectably, but we're not very likely to hear "Senator Edelen".
Senator Edelen can win this race. Look what happened in OH, Portman was safe, poll after poll have given Strickland the lead. Sen majority will be nice with pickups in OH/KY, FL, NH, WI & IL.

You realize the election in Ohio is more than a year from now, that Portman has way outraised Strickland, and that many prognosticators still have Ohio as Leans R, right?

In any case, even if all the races you list go Democratic, the Democratic Senate majority won't be "nice"; it'll be an exceedingly narrow 52-48 and probably doomed once elections happen in IN/MO/MT/ND in 2018.
55  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite Canadian Territory? on: November 01, 2015, 12:27:50 am
Visiting Kluane National Park has long been a dream of mine, so I would have to say Yukon.
56  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How old would you think the previous poster is? on: November 01, 2015, 12:27:09 am
57  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is there a difference between "ethnic whites" and "white people"? on: October 31, 2015, 10:15:34 pm
This is an answer entirely in the American context, but I do believe the answer is "yes". For some white Americans, the knowledge of where their families are originally from is lost in the seas of time -- non-indicative English/Irish last names may have been original, or perhaps they were Anglicized when they came in. Alternatively, they may remember what their ancestry is, but it is so jumbled from different European countries and nationalities that they cannot reasonably claim to be any one of those nationalities/ethnicities. Who knows. They have no identity to fall back on besides being white Americans.

Others do remember which European country or nationality they are originally from. When last names are not Anglicized and are distinctively of one culture or another, this is easiest (though that does not guarantee anything, of course; sometimes those names are simply passed on). These people may not speak the language of that country any longer, but they may identify with some traditions, and at least nominally still adhere to the original faith. These people are "white ethnics".

"Hispanics" (those that don't appear to be black, at least) are a very, very distinctive subset of "white ethnics"; they are probably far and away the largest group of these, and their immigration is comparatively recent and they be on average significantly poorer than other white ethnic groups, which sets them apart.

For instance, as a child of recent immigrants from Europe, who speaks his parents' language, I'm a fairly good example of a white ethnic. My friend with an Irish last name, whose ancestors were all white Americans as far as her family remembers except for a Cherokee great-grandmother, is not.
58  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When when Marco Rubio implode? on: October 31, 2015, 10:54:18 am
I don't know that Marco will necessarily win, but his campaign is definitely not going to implode.
59  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Vox Populi (R): Paul leads Edelen on: October 30, 2015, 11:10:00 pm
What Democrats will try to do here in the event of an Edelen candidacy is try to distract Republican monies and have some wave insurance. Edelen will probably manage both quite respectably, but we're not very likely to hear "Senator Edelen".
60  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump really a Democratic deep cover operative? on: October 29, 2015, 09:02:53 pm
I think for some very, very deep cover operatives, the line between whether they're still operatives or are legitimately part of the movement they're "infiltrating" can be a quite blurry one. Voted "yes", but that doesn't necessary mean he doesn't mean some of the things that he's saying. The Germans sent Lenin to Russia, after all.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Moderate GOP Sens form green coalition on: October 29, 2015, 05:21:45 pm
Didn't Ayotte get elected as a tea partier? I don't care about this issue either way, but I'm just wondering what happened between 2010 and now.

No, Ayotte ran as an establishmentarian Republican in the primary against the Tea Party Republican, perennial candidate Ovide Lamontagne. Ayotte had previously been the appointed state Attorney General by both Republican Governor Craig Benson and Democratic Governor John Lynch, and was seen as a nonpartisan figure before she resigned in 2009 to run for the Senate (though she had always been understood to be a Republican). The fact that she consistently leads Maggie Hassan in polling probably demonstrates that at least a fragment of that reputation has survived.
62  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: President Rubio? on: October 28, 2015, 09:50:50 pm
I think Rubio's stock improved, but (and I say this as a solid Rubio backer since the start of the campaign) that's not sufficient to guarantee the Presidency for him, why would you even think that Huh
63  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Top 3 LOSERS from the main debate? on: October 28, 2015, 09:38:56 pm
Paul, Bush, and Fiorina. Kasich at least got some attention, and I doubt he lost any support tonight (though he didn't gain any either). The three who lost failed to staunch bleeding.
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Top 3 winners from Main Debate? on: October 28, 2015, 09:37:40 pm
Trump, Rubio, and Cruz. Honorable mention to Christie, who has successfully further put off the death of his campaign.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did you watch the CNBC Debate from start to finish? on: October 28, 2015, 09:36:44 pm
66  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Should Israel = "Jewish state", OR not give preference to any ethnicity/religion on: October 28, 2015, 02:28:34 pm
Israel should remain a "Jewish state", but it's important to understand what is meant by the term "Jewish state" -- a state in which Jews form a majority, to which Jews can always flee, and in which the culture is based on Jewish values, such as fairness and justice. The term "Jewish state" not only does not mean intolerance towards other groups that live in Israel, it rejects it.
67  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Drug log cabin advice on: October 28, 2015, 09:26:35 am
This is only page 2 and it's already indisputably one of the best threads of 2015.
68  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you been to any presidential candidate events recently? on: October 28, 2015, 09:24:05 am
I went to a Rubio rally and shook his hand back in August.
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread on: October 27, 2015, 08:04:03 pm
A Conservative victory (in fact, with the same candidate, Bernard Genereux) in Montmagny was overturned by a judicial recount in 2011. Genereux's margin is greater this time, though, and hopefully history won't repeat itself.
70  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Netanyahu: Hitler didn't want to kill the Jews, Palestinian talked him into it on: October 27, 2015, 10:49:27 am
" Palestinians in East Jerusalem ... cannot, however, vote in national Israeli elections, ... ."

I didn't know this. What is the rationale for that? Israel considers East Jerusalem part of Israel. The Arabs there have been there since rocks cooled. They are residents. Yet, they cannot vote in national elections.

Palestinians who are permanent residents of East Jerusalem are permitted to apply for and receive Israeli citizenship, but few have exercised this option (since receiving Israeli citizenship means swearing allegiance to the Israeli state). Those who have Israeli citizenship are permitted to vote in national elections.
71  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Favorite major current politician from your state? on: October 24, 2015, 10:05:06 am
John Boehner
72  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Can you speak another language, if so what do you speak? on: October 24, 2015, 10:01:30 am
I am as fluent in Russian as I am in English; it is the only language that I use to communicate with my family and I learned to speak/read/write Russian before I did English. I've been studying Spanish for the past 5 years, and judging by test scores/several trips to Latin America, while I am nowhere near as proficient in Spanish as I am in English/Russian, I can read pretty much anything and understand pretty much anything besides songs/some local slang, and while I speak with a very heavy (and, apparently, very indeterminate, since it is part from American English and part from Russian) accent, I can communicate pretty much any concept. Voted Russian and Spanish. I have briefly studied several other languages at one time in my life or another, but I am nowhere near fluency in any of those and in some cases it's been many years since I've stopped.

EDIT: Ah, can you only vote for one language? That's kinda ridiculous, but OK. Voted Russian.
73  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NH: PPP: Rs lead, but lots of undecideds on: October 23, 2015, 04:37:42 pm
Is it really possible for Hassan and Sheheen to switch jobs simultaneously? That would be awsome, but wasn't Shaheen already a governor?

I believe it is the Senator's daughter, Stefany, a city councillor somewhere (?), who was tested.
74  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Controversy Surrounds Billboard Up in Detroit. on: October 23, 2015, 02:46:41 pm
How terrible. Thankfully, America's support for Israel is as strong as ever and shows no signs of abating.
75  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Alberta vs. Quebec on: October 22, 2015, 10:43:56 am
Wow.  Quebec won 34-21.

That almost looks like an election result from Quebec.
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