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September 03, 2015, 03:53:53 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 (well, maybe...) on: August 26, 2015, 08:08:59 pm
Also Konstantopoulou is forming her own party.

What does she think is wrong with Popular Unity?

I get the impression it's personal. But it looks like her party, Popular Unity, Antarsya, and other parties will be in an alliance for the election.
Then who'd be leader of Oxi Coalition? Varoufakis, Lafazanis or Konstantopoulou? Any chance of bringing KKE with them? Or even some moderates from XA?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (Mandatory Primaries Today) on: August 09, 2015, 10:55:17 pm
What happened to the left? Left-wing candidates came in first and second in the last two election. Now the Front for Victory has nominated a right-winger, shouldn't at least some of the voters be going elsewhere?
2011 was a very strange election. Binner ascended after almost draw in PASO between Duhalde and Alfonsin, as most electable non-K candidate. Macri was neutral, De La Sota too. Now, Macri rallied UCR and CC machines, as some Federal Peronists (Reutemann) too.
P.S: In Santa Fé, Binner is being smashed with a 4th place in senatorial elections. Perotti (FpV) is winning PASO, with Reutemann (Federal Peronism-PRO) as second place.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (Mandatory Primaries Today) on: August 09, 2015, 09:36:04 pm
Is there any rhyme or reason as to why sometimes Adolfo runs and sometimes Alberto runs? This time it's Adolfo, the former president running. It's the first time he has since 2003. Alberto the brother ran the last two times.
Rodriguez Saa never recovered from being rejected after his one-week Presidency. Now, Rodriguez Saa family discovered that it's a good business to keep separate from main Peronist structures. In this election, they can sell their support in runoff in exchange of pork for San Luis.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (general election scheduled on October 25) on: August 09, 2015, 12:20:09 am
There's an important primary election to determine the candidates for Governor of the Buenos Aires province, alongside with the PASO. Main tickets are:

Front For Victory (FPV):

- Aníbal Fernández / Martín Sabbatella

- Julián Domínguez / Fernando Espinoza.

The FPV alliance is the likely winner of this election, but the internal contest promises to be entertaining. The Fernández/Sabbatella ticket represents the 'Ultra K' faction of the FPV. Aníbal Fernández is facing hardship, because journalist and TV star Jorge Lanata accused him of being involved in the killing of 3 people, happened in 2008 and attributed to ephedrine traffickers operating in Buenos Aires province. Julián Domínguez has been growing in the polls and maybe he has chances of winning.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1815696-jorge-lanata-presento-un-informe-que-vincula-a-anibal-fernandez-con-el-narcotrafico

Cambiemos

- María Eugenia Vidal /  Daniel Salvador (PRO)

Renewal Front (FR):

- Felipe Solá / Daniel Arroyo

Progressives:

- Jaime Linares / Juan Carlos Pugliese (GEN)

- Jorge Ceballos / Victoria Vuoto (Libres del Sur)

Workers' Left Front (FIT):

- Néstor Pitrola / Rubén Sobrero (PO)

- Christian Castillo / Javier Hermosilla (PST)

Compromiso Federal:

- Eduardo D'Onofrio / Ana Savignano

Workers' Socialist Movement (MST):

- Vilma Ripoll / Gustavo Giménez

Other lists:

Popular Front (Adolfo Aguirre), New MAS (Héctor Heberling), Patria Grande (Manuel Bertoldi)

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1816149-cuenta-regresiva-para-las-paso-conoce-a-los-protagonistas-de-la-pelea-bonaerense

Polls:

- Jorge Giacobbe: Fernández / Sabbatella (FPV) 19%, Vidal (PRO) 18%, Domíguez (FPV) 13%, Solá  (FR) 12%

- Raúl Aragón: Solá (FR) 23.2%, Fernández (FPV) 21.3%, Domínguez (FPV) 15.9%

- Aresco: Fernández (FPV) 25.2%, Vidal (PRO) 23.4%, Solá (FR) 18.8%, Domínguez (FPV) 16.8%



Being Governor of Buenos Aires is probably 2nd most powerful position in Argentinean politics, only after Presidency. But it carries a curse. A governor of province never won a Presidential election since Mitre. If Dominguez manages to displace Anibal Fernandez, this move can help to make CFK position weaker in a Scioli government. In 2005, then governor Solá supported CFK against Hilda Duhalde (Eduardo Duhalde's wife) in a senatorial election who consolided Kirchnerist power in Peronism. De La Rua blamed his fall on 2001 because then governor Ruckauf, a Peronist.
If I were in Argentina I'd vote for del Caño in PASO and in general for Scioli or Stolbizer.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (general election scheduled on October 25) on: July 31, 2015, 05:25:29 pm
Is Larreta's close call in CABA damaging Macri?
Any chance of a De La Sota upset against Massa? João Santana is working for him.
And who's the favourite to be FpV nominee for BA gubernatorial election? Anibal Fernandez or Julian Dominguez?
And Pino Solanas endorsement? He woke with FAP, lunched with Massa, had a dinner with Rodriguez Saa and slept alone.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexico June 7th 2015 elections on: July 28, 2015, 05:32:55 pm
Any talks about 2018 candidates? I think that only certain guy is AMLO. Anything about PRI, PVEM, PRD or PAN candidates?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th on: July 20, 2015, 05:17:10 am
Any chance if CSP gets a good second place or first of getting to form government with support of PSC, CUP and C's?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: July 14, 2015, 02:42:57 am
Tsipras to accept this conditions was blackmailed with more than Euro exit. May be a expel from European Union, a threat of "presidential coup" by Pavlopoulos and other things. Or he's trying to do a Ryti-Ribbentrop where he accepts a harsh deal to resign and get another person to do a deal in better conditions.
And for Germans, how does Schauble survive so long as frontbencher. He'd be disgraced by CDU finance scandal in late 90's-early 2000, but he survives.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: WI: Jeb Bush Had Won the Florida Governorship in 1994 (instead of in 1998) on: July 02, 2015, 02:59:17 pm
Gore strategy will change. He won't surrender South and fight for AR, KY, LA, TN, GA, NC and WV electoral votes. Maybe another Southern Democrat ticket. Gore running-mate probably is Max Cleland (senate replacement appointed by a Democrat governor, then easy)
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Do you ever have weird personal feelings of irrendentism? on: June 19, 2015, 06:08:48 am
For Brazil, I believe that Uruguay should come back (more 2 Football titles, Mujica, marijuana will help our country) and French Guyana too. All lands east of Paraná river should be Brazilian too (East Paraguay, Missiones, Corrientes and Entre Rios). Venezuela Amazonas if an anti-Chavez government gets in. And Ascension and Saint Helena too.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 01:50:14 pm
With MHP or HDP as coalition partners, AKP can get 60% needed to get Constitutional amendments to referendum.
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: America now FIFA's savior on: May 27, 2015, 03:48:13 pm
Former President of CBF (Brazilian Confederation of Football), José Maria Marin, served as governor of São Paulo between 1982-83. He was lieutenant to Paulo Maluf (PP-SP), who is also wanted by American justice.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Map: voting systems in the world on: May 27, 2015, 01:37:09 am
Origin of this thread was voting of law to change Brazilian from open list proportional representation to a multi-members constituency (distritão), supported by Speaker Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) and Vice President Michel Temer (PMDB-SP). Luckily this had been defeated.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th on: May 26, 2015, 05:36:42 am
Possibly they have noted what happened with the LibDems. The discredit of PP due to corruption scandals is another factor, in all likelihood much more important. In that regard, there's not an analogous situation in the UK.
Navarra Podemos alliance with Bildu and Geroa Bai can provide a narrative legitimizing Ciudadanos' alliance with PP.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th on: May 24, 2015, 02:05:39 pm
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
In 1989, third-placed CDS got Madrid's mayoralty with PP's support.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Vice President Rick Perry on: May 23, 2015, 09:06:21 am
Elementar problem behind this thread... Perry replacement as senator would be named by KBH and Democrats would need his seat.
Suggestion: Perry not running for Governor in 2002, becoming Majority Leader after Gephardt and Speaker in 2006.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 12, 2015, 06:10:52 pm
Can Kukiz have enough strength to found a Palikot-like party to be a strong player in Legislative elections?
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Cameron 2.0 on: May 10, 2015, 10:01:49 pm
How long before he goes full Rajoy?
He's on a 1-seat majority and any austerity maneuvers will be only suicide to him. He'll need to buy Ulster unionists and LD won't get to be like National Liberals. Then, with some disagreements he can be out government in smaller time than expected...
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 06:34:50 pm
Depend on what bases coalition develops, NDP supporting a Trudeau as PM is a way of reawakening Bloc Quebecois. If NDP gets ahead, Liberals would surrender and accept coalition, as their last bullet (Trudeau) failed.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 11:16:32 pm
Will Tory go in coalition with LD rump caucus or go minority deals with LD and DUP?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 10:32:28 pm
Boris "Raving Loony" elected.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hungary By-Election, Tapolca on: April 13, 2015, 06:15:03 pm
Will Fidesz try to change FPTP? Or they fear that a French run-off system will scrap things for them?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 06:38:29 am
Why are people talking about Avramopoulos (ND EU Commissioner) as Tsipras' presidential choice?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton aides already talking about VP options on: January 27, 2015, 05:04:18 pm
Another thing that we can think is about of Hillary choosing another female, but young enough to be seen as VP. This can be Maggie Hassan, Heitkamp, Klobuchar, McCaskill or Baldwin would be options.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 03:41:48 pm
Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise. I'm sure a SYRIZA minority government would be fine for a few months, but what happens once they have to push their first controversial vote through parliament, or if a few MPs desert? If Tsipras wants to survive as PM, and actually accomplish something of value, he needs a coalition partner, and KKE isn't it. It is just a simple reality, and an election promise can't change that.  
I believe that many of KKE voters are ones of who want KKE not to be irrational opponent of Tsipras, but a left-wing check on his policies.
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