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May 30, 2016, 03:18:01 pm
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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 28, 2016, 12:53:48 pm
You would think these idiots would stop talking about shady s[Inks] on telephones that might be tapped.
Machado taped not on phone, but during personal meetings with barons. As he served in Senate, he still had links with Senate masters, like Sarney, Calheiros and Jucá.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 28, 2016, 12:43:42 am
I think that a new election is the best solution for the political crisis.

But a new election can take place only if both Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer resign. Or if Michel Temer resign after the end of Dilma's impeachment process.
If he resign until December 31th 2016 (first half of the term), the new election will be direct. If he resign after December 31th 2016, the Congress will vote for the new president.

Michel Temer will resign only if there is a big pressure.
I think that, unfortunately, he will be the president until December 31th 2018.



Well, there will be pressure. At least as much pressure as Dilma faced. The question is, when is it coming to head: before or after the end of the year. It is hard to see how he survives to the end of the current term once sh**t truly hits the fan.

I have a suggestion. They should somehow get Pele into Congress, have him appointed Speaker, have Temer resign and have Pele be president for the Olympics, with election happening shortly thereafter. This is, probably, the only way Brazil avoids being a scray laughing stock right at the moment all the attention is on it.
Romário is already in Senate.
But things are getting uglier for PMDB. Now, in more one of Machado tapes, former Transpetro CEO is talking about that he helped the traitor and usurper acting President Michel Temer to finance Gabriel Chalita's failed campaign to mayor of São Paulo. And there are talks about a Machado tape with Temer.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 23, 2016, 08:53:43 pm
Minister of Planning and Budget Romero Jucá (PMDB-RR) is first casualty of Temer's cabinet. He resigned after wiretapping between him and former senator Sérgio Machado (PMDB-CE), who served as CEO of Transpetro (oil transport Petrobras subsidiary) about stopping Operação Lava Jato. They talked about stopping Lava Jato and that Dilma's impeachment was the only way to do it. They talked about PSDB links to corruption schemes (They were leaders of Cardoso's government and were members of PSDB before supporting Lula), saying that "Aécio will be first to be eaten". There are talks that Machado is doing a plea bargain and have tapes with Renan Calheiros and José Sarney.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: World's most demented electoral system? on: May 19, 2016, 08:34:35 pm
Brazil Open List who allow bizarre coalitions between rent parties like PP (former military dictatorship party) and PC do B (former Hoxhaist party), with corporation money who is behind political crisis in Brazil.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 11, 2016, 10:53:29 pm
What are "substitution deputies"? Could someone please explain that?
Brazil legislative system is elected by open list with parties that can be united for election, but not for . But legislators can leave to serve in cabinets (federal, statewide and state capitals). Then, legislators can be replaced by legislators that stayed behind in list until legislators go back. In senate, "substitution senators" are elected in same ticket, usually campaign financers or family members, like Raimundo Lira (PMDB-PB), chairman of Senate Impeachment Committee who replaced Vital do Rego who went to a lifelong job to Audit Court and is now implicated in bribes of Lava Jato. They replace congressman if they get elected to another position too, like to be mayor or senators (who have eight years-term), usually, to become governors.
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 09, 2016, 11:57:09 pm
Apparently Maranhao voted against the impeachment? How was he chosen, anyway?
He is a Cunha allied. He was the PP's indicated in the Cunha list for the chamber election last year, as the VP of the House.

He was in favour for impeachment, but the fact that Sarney Family (that became enemies) turned pro impeachment made him change sides (besides, the fact that Flavio Dino, Maranhão's Governor, promised to support him for Senate in 2018 may helped).

He can be a infiltrated agent of Cunha too, no one knows.

Well, politics in Brasil looks like everyday less House of Cards and more just like that other series, yes, Lost.
Maranhão turned back as Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP's chairman and in deep problems with Car Wash) threatened him of expelling of party and of asking his mandate back.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 08, 2016, 08:52:08 pm
So, the door closes on Dilma, hits Cunha on the way out, and Temer's daughter is getting ready to be first lady.
No. Temer has a trophy wife who's 40 years younger than him. There was a meme about her "bela, recatada e do lar!". One of Temer's daughters, Luciana Temer disagrees with impeachment and stayed with Fernando Haddad government.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 05, 2016, 07:23:43 am
Speaker and gangster Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) is suspended of his term as Congressman, then of Speakership, by a monocratic decision by Minister Zavascki. Supreme Court didn't say anything for 141 days, time more of enough to him command a coup d'etat with traitor and conspirator Michel Temer (PMDB).
A fun note: Temer lost his political rights for 8 years after donating more than legal limit (10 % of personal yield of year before election).
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 25, 2016, 07:14:37 pm
The idea of polling-- surveying, really-- the legislature strikes me as rather novel, at least from an American context.

Even if Dilma is considering new elections, there still isn't a mechanism under which they could be held, right?


If a PEC - Amendment to the constitution pass, it could happen. But it could be contested in supreme tribunal.

And there is a chance that both she and Temer would resign, but she has to combine with the russians (in this case, Temer and all the opposition).
Brazilian law respects too much "vested right". Then if Temer doesn't accept new elections, he can go to Supreme Court to strike down it. But this is very unlikely, as this needs to be approved by 3/5 of National Congress, in 2 votes in each House.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 24, 2016, 03:56:17 pm
Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

You're supportive of a literal apologist for tyrants and torturers? The guy who dedicated his impeachment vote to the guy who was in charge of torturing the current president?
Bolsonaro is so dumb that Ustra didn't torture Dilma.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24) on: April 24, 2016, 03:14:41 pm
Or in other words:

Of the 43% who voted Griss/Hundstorfer/Khol and Lugner today, 56% disapprove of the government job.

But Hofer just needs 35% of this pool of 43% to get to 50%+ in the runoff ...
You need to remember that Greens aren't in government.
Some Griss voters were tactical voters to stop VdB. But I believe that VdB will win due to higher turnout.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 24, 2016, 01:00:29 pm
Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).
Brazil's party system imploded. Bolsonaro made an agreement with Pastor Everaldo, PSC's chairman that he'll be the candidate if he gets more than 10% in polls. He can get it, but I doubt that he gets in runoff, unless PSDB implodes in multiples candidates and left-wing gets competitive candidates. I think that his ceiling in 1st round is 20%.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 24, 2016, 12:26:59 pm
Do you think Serra might try to run again? He and Geraldo are well past their expiration dates, even if they are both pretty good, but they clearly both want the job.
PSDB-SP is in civil war between Alckmin and Serra factions. Then Serra is supporting Temer believing that he can jump to PMDB to get presidential nomination. Alckmin is in fear of having a powerful PMDB to oppose him in São Paulo politics.
But a surprise can happen as Henrique Meirelles (PSD) is now the favourite to be Minister of Treasury. He met Temer along Romero Jucá (eternal Government Leader in Senate and acting President of PMDB) and former minister Gilberto Kassab (PSD). He asked full control of economic policy to accept.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: April 24, 2016, 08:41:08 am
President Nikolic who started as a standy-by for Seselj is now leading catch-all Serbian Progressive Party. Old pro-european parties are now in a very bad state.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: April 23, 2016, 09:40:46 am
Wow, surprised the traffic light coalition actually went through.
Actually, Kurt Beck opted for FDP than Greens as coalition partner. Then RP FDP knows how to work with SDP.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 19, 2016, 06:45:15 pm
Pro-Dilma coalition is basically PT. PC do B, PDT and some parts of PR (Valdemar da Costa Neto). And NE governors helped a lot in getting some anti-impeachment votes. Maranhao governor Flavio Dino (PC do B) worked a lot to get pro-Dilma votes, while Roseana Sarney that got all suport from Lula worked against Dilma because she's in very difficult situation.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: April 10, 2016, 07:06:28 pm
Congressional elections show that much of Mendoza votes are Keiko loan votes looking for a weaker candidate in runoff. PPK coalition is more coherent, but he gained a lot of loan votes. And Acuña is a kingmaker with 11 seats. Mendoza in runoff probably will stay neutral as PPK is the candidate of traditional Peruvian oligarchy and Keiko has all of Fujimori baggage.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Armenia/Azerbaijan on: April 03, 2016, 07:33:19 pm
Oil prices are one of reasons for this escalation. Azerbaijani regime needs to get people on their side during times of economic crisis. Then they need to go to war to recover some support.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: April 01, 2016, 09:21:41 pm
Garcia + Flores are in a very shameful position for people who get a good voting in last two Presidential elections.
Mendoza's problem is that she would get smashed at any runoff. Maybe she get some loan voters from KF in order to put weaker candidate in runoff.
New poll by Voxpopuli http://larepublica.pe/impresa/politica/755759-alfredo-barnechea-empata-segundo-lugar-con-kuczynski-en-encuesta-de-vox-populi
Keiko: 31.2%
Kuczynski: 14.1%
Barnechea: 12.9%
Mendoza: 10.9%
Garcia: 7.3%
Runoff scenarios
PPK vs. KF: 47.1% to 35.9%
AB vs. KF: 44.6% to 39.1%
KF vs. VM: 41.9% to 37.6%  
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 23, 2016, 07:30:54 pm
Ciro is a strange kind of politician. He gained fame as able administrator along Tasso Jereissati who remains in PSDB. But Ciro always had a bad temper and an autocratic personality. And he always left parties when he clashed with party barons.
He called Vice President Temer as "Captain of Coup". His brother left Dilma's cabinet after he called Speaker Cunha of "racketeer" and about Congress being made of "300, 400 rackeeters". His campaign strategy is to beat hard in corrupt pragmatic parties like PMDB and promise more left-wing economic policies, to look like as heir of PT.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 20, 2016, 05:15:06 pm
Fico is Slovakian Bibi...
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 19, 2016, 08:32:18 pm
What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

That's exactly what investors are thinking. The thing is, they believe whoever takes office if/when Dilma is out will NOT run for reelection in 2018, so they believe whoever takes office would be willing to go through unpopular austerity measures to heal Brazil's fiscal policy.

Remember, there's even a chance that both Dilma AND Temer could fall in a few months. If this happens after December 31st 2016, then an indirect election would be triggered in an unicameral session of the Congress. Then, the Congress would probably handpick an "elder statesman" who wouldn't run for reelection in 2018 and who would be willing to go through all necessary measures to repair Brazil's economy. In fact, I've already heard that Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS) is a name being ventilated for this scenario. Jobim is a former Supreme Court Justice that was also on FHC's, Lula's and Dilma's cabinet. He'd probably tick all the necessary boxes for the job.

What measures would those be?

Immediately:

1 - reducing the debt by reducing unnecessary spending, reducing the number of cabinet positions and reducing the number of federal public servants,
2 - reforming the Constitution to reduce mandatory spending (Brazil has a bizarre public spending system where about 90% of all public spending is mandatory and cannot be blocked during a situation of crisis),
3 - cutting down absurd regulations and interventions created by Dilma that made investors flee the country.

With those 3 measures we'd be able to restore confidence and a balanced budget by 2018 IMO. Those should also be enough to bring back the inflation to its targeted rate of 4,5%. On the long term, though, more reforms would be needed, like:

4 - Welfare/pensions reform (the toughest one due to the political implications of this, this is probably the most important one, as Brazil's welfare system has a hole of over 100 billion reais)
5 - Tax reform (very tricky because there's a huge war between the federal government, states governments and local governments about this one)
6 - Government procurement reform (vital to cut down the corruption on the public service)
7 - Privatizations (Brazil has over 100 state owned companies, some of them running huge deficits).
Problem is following:
1 - We can reduce debt, but not cutting public services. we can make better use of technology, create better procedures, but not at cost of a public service.
2 - Mandatory spending is a thing that insures that money will go to things that are needed. Things that we can question is quality of expenses. And systems of control failures.
3 - Dilma made this attempt when things were looking good. Energy reform became a failure after water crisis (Brazilian system is made of water-moved power plant)
4 - Welfare reform is needed, but a human welfare reform, that doesn't cut acquired rights. One example. Rural benefits (not Bolsa Familia) are very important means of giving resources to survival in poorer regions. But I don't support military benefits for single daughters who lives as common-law wives or widow benefits for younger wives with a large age gap with their husbands. We need to recognize a system good for a contemporary world.
5 - Tax reform is hardest duty. Nobody will do a tax reform in a federative country that has one state with 20% of people (São Paulo). Small reforms would be viable.
6 - Procurement reform is a good way. Have more independent control procedures, more citizenship acting than conflicts. People doesn't know how things function and then corrupts can act free. And even Audit Court is having problems in Lava Jato.
7 - Sell Petrobras, Eletrobras, BB, Caixa, and etcetera. And then do what? Become hostages of oligopolies, financial markets, stock exchanges. Phone companies were sold, but they are with most problems with Justice. Government is with part of blame, but I doubt that this will change with PSDB.

Free market won't solve Brazilian problems alone, but D-E-M-O-C-R-A-C-Y is best solution. Political reforms will help more to fight corruption than illegal wiretappings, political gossips, censorship of thinking and pro-business reforms. This coup is a coup of corrupts wanting to survive.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: guido westerwelle is dead on: March 19, 2016, 01:22:23 am
R.I.P. to most unpopular Vizekanzler. Biggest mistake to not go traffic light in 2005.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Jon Huntsman accuses Mitt Romney of CORRUPTION in Cruz endorsement on: March 18, 2016, 10:20:46 pm
Two things that look suspicious:
Are Romney and Leavitt working to give TRUMP an embarassing 3rd place in UT than a Cruz landslide? Or they are working already to a so brokered convention that will enforce Romney as candidate. Or they know that TRUMP nomination is the only way for GOP to victory...
And other question: What's the reason that Mormon establishment loves more MI-MA Romney than  UT Huntsman? Only because Obama ambassadorship?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Millennials would flock to Clinton in Hillary v. Trump GE on: March 18, 2016, 08:32:21 pm
I don't think that. Millenials in multicultural regions can break for Hillary, but Trump anti-establishment populism can attract some of them.
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