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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 17, 2016, 02:35:31 pm
Killing Erdogan to create another Menderes. Coup leaders wouldn't be dumb to kill him.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 11:35:53 pm
Ergenekon convictions being made void showed that Judiciary main leaders would be open to legitimize a military coup. But for many elements in Turkey society (youth, peasants, working class, Kurds), Erdogan is lesser evil than military because of memoirs from Evran times.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 06:10:35 pm
Any chance of this being False Flag? Kkkk, but Erdogan is one of my favourite world leaders. Better than establishment pro-business and fascist pro-military that always went against Turkish people. But establishment prefers a leader with their trust than Erdogan as member of anti-imperialist axis with Putin and Assad.
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: July 07, 2016, 07:40:27 pm
Eduardo Cunha resigned today. He is not the president of the House anymore. But he is still a representative. Maybe, there was an agreement with his allies so that he could resign without losing his term as a representative.
Eduardo Cunha met Michel Temer in Temer's office last week.
He's a removed representative. Things for Cunha are very complicated. His main bribe operator, Lucio Bolonha Funaro, was arrested after a bargain plea by Flavio Cleto, former Vice President of Caixa. Cunha was appointed as receiver of 80% of bribes. But a delation of Cunha is very feared by usurper acting government. Now Cunha is under juridisction of 2nd Group of Federal Supreme Court, led by Gilmar Mendes, a very pro-PSDB partisan judge, who makes a pact to save Cunha very likely.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 28, 2016, 12:53:48 pm
You would think these idiots would stop talking about shady s[Inks] on telephones that might be tapped.
Machado taped not on phone, but during personal meetings with barons. As he served in Senate, he still had links with Senate masters, like Sarney, Calheiros and Jucá.
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 28, 2016, 12:43:42 am
I think that a new election is the best solution for the political crisis.

But a new election can take place only if both Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer resign. Or if Michel Temer resign after the end of Dilma's impeachment process.
If he resign until December 31th 2016 (first half of the term), the new election will be direct. If he resign after December 31th 2016, the Congress will vote for the new president.

Michel Temer will resign only if there is a big pressure.
I think that, unfortunately, he will be the president until December 31th 2018.



Well, there will be pressure. At least as much pressure as Dilma faced. The question is, when is it coming to head: before or after the end of the year. It is hard to see how he survives to the end of the current term once sh**t truly hits the fan.

I have a suggestion. They should somehow get Pele into Congress, have him appointed Speaker, have Temer resign and have Pele be president for the Olympics, with election happening shortly thereafter. This is, probably, the only way Brazil avoids being a scray laughing stock right at the moment all the attention is on it.
Romário is already in Senate.
But things are getting uglier for PMDB. Now, in more one of Machado tapes, former Transpetro CEO is talking about that he helped the traitor and usurper acting President Michel Temer to finance Gabriel Chalita's failed campaign to mayor of São Paulo. And there are talks about a Machado tape with Temer.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 23, 2016, 08:53:43 pm
Minister of Planning and Budget Romero Jucá (PMDB-RR) is first casualty of Temer's cabinet. He resigned after wiretapping between him and former senator Sérgio Machado (PMDB-CE), who served as CEO of Transpetro (oil transport Petrobras subsidiary) about stopping Operação Lava Jato. They talked about stopping Lava Jato and that Dilma's impeachment was the only way to do it. They talked about PSDB links to corruption schemes (They were leaders of Cardoso's government and were members of PSDB before supporting Lula), saying that "Aécio will be first to be eaten". There are talks that Machado is doing a plea bargain and have tapes with Renan Calheiros and José Sarney.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: World's most demented electoral system? on: May 19, 2016, 08:34:35 pm
Brazil Open List who allow bizarre coalitions between rent parties like PP (former military dictatorship party) and PC do B (former Hoxhaist party), with corporation money who is behind political crisis in Brazil.
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 11, 2016, 10:53:29 pm
What are "substitution deputies"? Could someone please explain that?
Brazil legislative system is elected by open list with parties that can be united for election, but not for . But legislators can leave to serve in cabinets (federal, statewide and state capitals). Then, legislators can be replaced by legislators that stayed behind in list until legislators go back. In senate, "substitution senators" are elected in same ticket, usually campaign financers or family members, like Raimundo Lira (PMDB-PB), chairman of Senate Impeachment Committee who replaced Vital do Rego who went to a lifelong job to Audit Court and is now implicated in bribes of Lava Jato. They replace congressman if they get elected to another position too, like to be mayor or senators (who have eight years-term), usually, to become governors.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 09, 2016, 11:57:09 pm
Apparently Maranhao voted against the impeachment? How was he chosen, anyway?
He is a Cunha allied. He was the PP's indicated in the Cunha list for the chamber election last year, as the VP of the House.

He was in favour for impeachment, but the fact that Sarney Family (that became enemies) turned pro impeachment made him change sides (besides, the fact that Flavio Dino, Maranhão's Governor, promised to support him for Senate in 2018 may helped).

He can be a infiltrated agent of Cunha too, no one knows.

Well, politics in Brasil looks like everyday less House of Cards and more just like that other series, yes, Lost.
Maranhão turned back as Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP's chairman and in deep problems with Car Wash) threatened him of expelling of party and of asking his mandate back.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 08, 2016, 08:52:08 pm
So, the door closes on Dilma, hits Cunha on the way out, and Temer's daughter is getting ready to be first lady.
No. Temer has a trophy wife who's 40 years younger than him. There was a meme about her "bela, recatada e do lar!". One of Temer's daughters, Luciana Temer disagrees with impeachment and stayed with Fernando Haddad government.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 05, 2016, 07:23:43 am
Speaker and gangster Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) is suspended of his term as Congressman, then of Speakership, by a monocratic decision by Minister Zavascki. Supreme Court didn't say anything for 141 days, time more of enough to him command a coup d'etat with traitor and conspirator Michel Temer (PMDB).
A fun note: Temer lost his political rights for 8 years after donating more than legal limit (10 % of personal yield of year before election).
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 25, 2016, 07:14:37 pm
The idea of polling-- surveying, really-- the legislature strikes me as rather novel, at least from an American context.

Even if Dilma is considering new elections, there still isn't a mechanism under which they could be held, right?


If a PEC - Amendment to the constitution pass, it could happen. But it could be contested in supreme tribunal.

And there is a chance that both she and Temer would resign, but she has to combine with the russians (in this case, Temer and all the opposition).
Brazilian law respects too much "vested right". Then if Temer doesn't accept new elections, he can go to Supreme Court to strike down it. But this is very unlikely, as this needs to be approved by 3/5 of National Congress, in 2 votes in each House.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 24, 2016, 03:56:17 pm
Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

You're supportive of a literal apologist for tyrants and torturers? The guy who dedicated his impeachment vote to the guy who was in charge of torturing the current president?
Bolsonaro is so dumb that Ustra didn't torture Dilma.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24) on: April 24, 2016, 03:14:41 pm
Or in other words:

Of the 43% who voted Griss/Hundstorfer/Khol and Lugner today, 56% disapprove of the government job.

But Hofer just needs 35% of this pool of 43% to get to 50%+ in the runoff ...
You need to remember that Greens aren't in government.
Some Griss voters were tactical voters to stop VdB. But I believe that VdB will win due to higher turnout.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 24, 2016, 01:00:29 pm
Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).
Brazil's party system imploded. Bolsonaro made an agreement with Pastor Everaldo, PSC's chairman that he'll be the candidate if he gets more than 10% in polls. He can get it, but I doubt that he gets in runoff, unless PSDB implodes in multiples candidates and left-wing gets competitive candidates. I think that his ceiling in 1st round is 20%.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 24, 2016, 12:26:59 pm
Do you think Serra might try to run again? He and Geraldo are well past their expiration dates, even if they are both pretty good, but they clearly both want the job.
PSDB-SP is in civil war between Alckmin and Serra factions. Then Serra is supporting Temer believing that he can jump to PMDB to get presidential nomination. Alckmin is in fear of having a powerful PMDB to oppose him in São Paulo politics.
But a surprise can happen as Henrique Meirelles (PSD) is now the favourite to be Minister of Treasury. He met Temer along Romero Jucá (eternal Government Leader in Senate and acting President of PMDB) and former minister Gilberto Kassab (PSD). He asked full control of economic policy to accept.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: April 24, 2016, 08:41:08 am
President Nikolic who started as a standy-by for Seselj is now leading catch-all Serbian Progressive Party. Old pro-european parties are now in a very bad state.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: April 23, 2016, 09:40:46 am
Wow, surprised the traffic light coalition actually went through.
Actually, Kurt Beck opted for FDP than Greens as coalition partner. Then RP FDP knows how to work with SDP.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: April 19, 2016, 06:45:15 pm
Pro-Dilma coalition is basically PT. PC do B, PDT and some parts of PR (Valdemar da Costa Neto). And NE governors helped a lot in getting some anti-impeachment votes. Maranhao governor Flavio Dino (PC do B) worked a lot to get pro-Dilma votes, while Roseana Sarney that got all suport from Lula worked against Dilma because she's in very difficult situation.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: April 10, 2016, 07:06:28 pm
Congressional elections show that much of Mendoza votes are Keiko loan votes looking for a weaker candidate in runoff. PPK coalition is more coherent, but he gained a lot of loan votes. And Acuña is a kingmaker with 11 seats. Mendoza in runoff probably will stay neutral as PPK is the candidate of traditional Peruvian oligarchy and Keiko has all of Fujimori baggage.
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Armenia/Azerbaijan on: April 03, 2016, 07:33:19 pm
Oil prices are one of reasons for this escalation. Azerbaijani regime needs to get people on their side during times of economic crisis. Then they need to go to war to recover some support.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: April 01, 2016, 09:21:41 pm
Garcia + Flores are in a very shameful position for people who get a good voting in last two Presidential elections.
Mendoza's problem is that she would get smashed at any runoff. Maybe she get some loan voters from KF in order to put weaker candidate in runoff.
New poll by Voxpopuli http://larepublica.pe/impresa/politica/755759-alfredo-barnechea-empata-segundo-lugar-con-kuczynski-en-encuesta-de-vox-populi
Keiko: 31.2%
Kuczynski: 14.1%
Barnechea: 12.9%
Mendoza: 10.9%
Garcia: 7.3%
Runoff scenarios
PPK vs. KF: 47.1% to 35.9%
AB vs. KF: 44.6% to 39.1%
KF vs. VM: 41.9% to 37.6%  
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 23, 2016, 07:30:54 pm
Ciro is a strange kind of politician. He gained fame as able administrator along Tasso Jereissati who remains in PSDB. But Ciro always had a bad temper and an autocratic personality. And he always left parties when he clashed with party barons.
He called Vice President Temer as "Captain of Coup". His brother left Dilma's cabinet after he called Speaker Cunha of "racketeer" and about Congress being made of "300, 400 rackeeters". His campaign strategy is to beat hard in corrupt pragmatic parties like PMDB and promise more left-wing economic policies, to look like as heir of PT.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 20, 2016, 05:15:06 pm
Fico is Slovakian Bibi...
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