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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 20, 2014, 05:41:08 am
Actually, Aecio was highly successful on rallying the older, center-left side of the party embodied by FHC, José Serra, Andrea Matarazzo, Barjas Negri, etc. In fact, I believe that, if Aecio is elected, some names from this faction will have key cabinet posts (Serra is a lock). He'll also explore younger names from this faction of the party, like yet another rising star, Floriano Pesaro.

Well, Aecio had to move toward centre-left in order to win the election.

Btw, who's Serra's Senate substitute?
Serra's substitute is veteran tucano congressman José Anibal, who had some clashes with Serra before. I think that Aécio believes that is better to keep Serra close than letting him to have his own side show on Senate.
Pesaro is a São Paulo's councilman who served in FHC government and got elected to Congress with Cardoso's endorsement at TV. He can serve in a social position of cabinet.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 13, 2014, 08:58:44 pm
IBOPE polled the Federal District for the local race and the national race. Interesting results:

Local government: R. Rollemberg (PSB) 60% x J. Frejat (PR) 40%
Presidential: Aécio 69% x Dilma 31%

In 2010 Dilma had 53% in the runoff against Serra, Serra had 47%, so if true this would be a 22% swing from the PT to the PSDB. In the 1st round Aecio had 36% there and Dilma 23%. Marina also had 36%, so it's clear Aecio is gaining a huge chunk of her votes there. If those numbers are true and remain steady, Aecio would be reducing the 8 million vote difference that separates him from Dilma by at least some 400 thousand votes. Considering the Federal District has just under 1.9 million voters, this would be a significant number.
This is result of Agnelo's heavy unpopularity. Only way of Dilma recovering is doing some undercover compromise with Roriz-Arruda machine where they give Dilma votes in their places in exchange of PT machine working for Frejat.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 06, 2014, 07:09:05 pm
In RS, two another main contenders of 2010 gubernatorial election failed to get into chamber (former senator José Fogaça and former governor Yeda Crusius). In ES, former mayor of Vitória, Luiz Paulo Velloso Lucas failed to get elected.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 04, 2014, 06:20:14 pm
Dilma had a massive surge after start of free TV airtime. Dilma got 55% in some polls, but after Erenice Guerra's scandal (Dilma's trusted right-hand at government)...
Breaking in my state:
Paulo Souto  DEM): 36%
Rui Costa (PT): 36%
Lidice (PSB): 4%
Another 3 candidates: 1% each

5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 03, 2014, 04:29:12 pm
Prediction
Dilma: 47.3%
Aécio: 25.3%
Marina: 22.8%
All of others: 4.6% (order: Luciana Genro, Everaldo, Eduardo Jorge, Fidelix, Zé Maria, Eymael, Iasi, Costa Pimenta)
My votes:
President: Dilma (PT)
Governor: Renata Mallet (PSTU)
Senator: Otto Alencar (PSD)
Federal legislator: Amauri Teixeira (PT)
State legislator: Angelo Almeida (PT)
If Brazil had alternate vote for president, I'd vote in that order:
1. Luciana Genro
2. Dilma Rousseff
3. Rui Costa Pimenta
4. Mauro Iasi
5. Zé Maria
6.Levy Fidelix (even if he's homophobic, I like his retoric against banks and populism)
7. Eduardo Jorge (my problem with him is running-mate Celia Sacramento who supports ACM Neto's gang in Bahia)
8. Eymael
9. Marina
10. Aécio
11. Everaldo (i don't like his neoliberal and social conservative rhetoric).
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 29, 2014, 08:37:18 pm
And is Left-SPD-AfD coalition viable?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: September 29, 2014, 08:20:25 pm
Main theme today was homophobic rant by candidate Levy Fidelix (PRTB) at yesterday TV Record debate. After a question by Luciana Genro (PSOL), he said that "two equal people don't reproduce" and that "excretive system don't give birth". He proposed that straight majority should "defy" LGBT minority. OAB (Brazilian bar) is requesting that his registration to be banned.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Catalan Independence Referendum (with FREE constitutional crisis!) on: September 28, 2014, 03:45:34 pm
In October 6, Catalonian will commemorate 80 years of Declaration of a "Catalan State, inside Spanish Federal Republic" by Lluis Companys (ERC's leader and Generalitat President who was shot by Francoist regime). Many things will happen to remember that.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: September 23, 2014, 09:05:10 pm
I think that PT failed to create a bench in São Paulo. And old party names are in jail or weakned. Padilha isn't well because Haddad isn't popular(he's acting more like a technical than a politician).And Alckmin is winning more due to weak opponents than being a fantastic governor. Skaf looks a lemon salesman. And looks that Alckmin can be national best voted governor in first round. I think that to win in São Paulo, PT should support an outside candidate from a non-PT party, like a non-capital mayor, like Rodrigo Agostinho (Bauru-PMDB) or Darcy Vera (Ribeirao Preto-PSD). Suplicy is somewhat out of touch with state demands and he looks to be somewhat senile.
In Rio de Janeiro, run-off can be a problem for Pezão. He's well because of his large TV time, but in run-off, with equal times, he can lose to a good orator, like Garotinho. And kingmaker can be Romario (he almost went to Garotinho's PR, but withdrew when Campos gave him PSB's control).
In Minas Gerais, Pimenta da Veiga was chosen to prevent a internal fight and to make national PSDB bosses happy (Pimenta was old tucano). But controversies due to Aecio's airport scandal and Marina's surge prevented a large advantadge. But Pimentel (PT) isn't controversial. In 2008, he allied Aecio to support Marcio Lacerda (PSB)'s mayoral bid.
In Pernambuco, Campos' family is going heavy to campaign for Camara, fearing a last week victory by Monteiro.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: September 21, 2014, 08:10:13 pm
Collor is on ticket supported by PT, former enemy Ronaldo Lessa (of PDT). His gubernatorial candidate is Congressman Renan Filho (son of Senate President, Renan Calheiros). Main opponent is former senator Heloisa Helena (PSOL) who got PSDB undercover endorsement.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: September 16, 2014, 05:42:06 am
Can backlash after Yes victory give SNP a great victory in GE2015 enough to make them 3rd party in Commons and king-maker? Or Scottish still vote for Labour after all?
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: September 04, 2014, 07:58:51 pm
For people who knows French politics... Will a Montebourg primary against Hollande in PS work or president has enough patronage power to prevent this that best way is trying to run independently or in a alliance with PG-PCF (Programme commun 2017)?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: August 26, 2014, 10:26:59 pm
Gilberto Kassab is running against Serra!? And good to see Beto Richa in the lead; I remember being told he'd have a hard time against Hoffmann, which isn't the case. I think he's a strong contender for the nomination in 2018/2022.

Many expected Hoffmann would be a strong candidate because she'd have strong Lula/Dilma support. The problem is that Paraná may well be Brazil's most conservative and anti-PT state. Also, Richa's ratings are quite high. The PT wanted to have stronger footing in Paraná, but in the end this may end up backfiring and could even hurt Dilma in a state with nearly 8 million voters.

I do think Richa could be a viable name for 2018/2022, but right now Alckmin is clearly the pole-sitter - specially if he crushes his opposition in São Paulo as it looks like right now. Alckmin is already known nationally, has the support of many within the higher ranks of the PSDB, and is a strong fundraiser (important if private funding is kept until 2018). In fact, Alckmin knows all this very well and due to this is not really putting much effort on Neves' campaign. Don't forget he's working with Marina's PSB in São Paulo.

Richa could be viable, but he'd have a hard time raising his name recognition around the country. He's a complete unknown outside Paraná. This is a problem Aécio is having right now, he's still unknown to about 1/4 of Brazil.

Now an Alckmin-Richa ticket would be sweet, and probably excellent to unify a pparty that's been hurt way too much by internal fighting.
Paraná's PT had many problems. A Hoffmann's secretary was jailed for paedophilia and congressman André Vargas' (former PT) dealings with lobbysts went very bad. Curitiba's mayor Gustavo Fruet  (PDT), a Gleisi's ally isn't at his best. And Richa helped Requião some way by trying to get PMDB support anyway. This energized Requião group to fight back after almost losing 2010 senatorial election. And Requião runs to Gleisi's left. He's a sui generis PMDB as being most progressive Senator. And this IBOPE poll can't be trusted.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: August 26, 2014, 10:20:04 pm
What a horrible debate!

Only the Green Party candidate Eduardo Jorge is a little bit better
Eduardo Jorge's rhetorics are more left-wing aggressive than Luciana Genro. And he served as secretary in Serra-Kassab government in São Paulo. And running-mate Célia Sacramento is ACM Neto's deputy mayor.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: August 25, 2014, 06:47:15 pm
Beto Albuquerque, Marina's running-mate will be replaced in Rio Grande do Sul's Senate dispute by incumbent Pedro Simon who'll run for 5th senate term. He planned to retire, but he was seen as only electable name.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: August 23, 2014, 04:25:11 pm
In 2010, Marina hadn't same vetting she's going to get now. She's being attacked by right-wing newspapers, like receiving critics from left. Aecio has 40 days to recover. Water crisis in São Paulo isn't affecting Alckmin because weak opponents, but people in São Paulo can protest voting in Marina (who refused to support PSB's alliance with Alckmin-many say that she wasn't on Campos' flight to not meet him).
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: August 23, 2014, 10:33:38 am
I'm a Dilma's supporter and I'm calm about Marina's surge. She'll self-implode at some moment. She had first crisis with PSB's cupula as Carlos Siqueira, Secretary-General of PSB, resigned as campaign manager. He'll be replaced by Luiza Erundina, although this will be only symbolic, as Erundina has some criticism of Marina's critic of traditional politics and her business allies. Marina had promised to give autonomy to Central Bank and to end reelection.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: August 17, 2014, 08:24:26 pm
It's now nearly certain Marina Silva will head the ticket. Congressman Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS), who was running for the Senate, will probably be her running mate.
Beto is a Campos' loyalist. He was 2nd best-voted congressman in RS and served as Infrastructure Secretary at Genro's government. He left job to help Campos. He would be good to attract sympathy votes after he gets national electorate to know his personal drama. His son Pietro died in 2009, after sufering a hard kind of leukaemia where all of solutions were tested, but all failed because lack of compatible donators.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HI: Hanabusa going for Senate on: August 11, 2014, 04:58:22 pm
And how do you think that Tulsi Gabbard would do in a primary against Schatz in 2016?
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Euro 2016 Qualifying on: July 14, 2014, 08:14:48 pm
A - Netherlands, Turkey, Czech Republic
B - Belgium, Bosnia, Wales
C - Ukraine, Spain, Belarus
D - Germany, Ireland, Poland
E - Switzerland, England, Lithuania
F -  Greece, Romania, Hungary
G - Sweden, Montenegro, Austria
H - Croatia, Italy, Norway
I - Portugal, Denmark, Serbia
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread on: July 12, 2014, 03:42:56 pm
The referees continue to prop up Brazil even now. Thiago Silva should have been sent of for denying an obvious goalscoring opportunity, but I guess a repeat of last match is not wanted now.
And Robben who threw himself?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: July 09, 2014, 03:35:57 pm
Plinio de Arruda Sampaio, 83, died yesterday after a bone cancer. He started in politics in Democratic Christian Party and was expelled from Congress by military coup in 1964. After amnesty, he joined Workers Party (PT) and served again in Congress and ran for São Paulo's governorship in 1990. In 2005, he switched parties and went to far-left Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL), running again for governorship in 2006. He gained national popularity during 2010 presidential campaign, where he was seen as "crazy funny old guy" who was very popular in social networks, but he gained only 0.87% of votes. RIP!
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread on: July 04, 2014, 07:07:06 pm
Keystone Phil, your player almost killed Neymar. He should be arrested for manslaughter attempt. Lifetime ban, please!
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What countries have you been too? on: June 23, 2014, 06:37:10 pm
Brazil, my country
Visit: UK, Spain, France, Ukraine, Hungary
Airport: Belgium
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1968: Switch Humphrey and Wallace on: June 16, 2014, 09:33:37 pm
A good what-if could be Wallace making an unholy alliance with anti-war progressives, like McCarthy and McGovern, while Kennedy sits out, endorsing him undercover in hope that he gets nomination and lose to support him on 72. With Southern support, he gets nomination.
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