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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: October 13, 2016, 09:31:28 pm
Far right groups have already scheduled a pro-Trump rally which will take place on October 29th, at downtown São Paulo. They will rally against Hillary Clinton, the "American Dilma".
They're so dumb. As all of Brazilian right. Hillary supports American Free Trade Agreement, received money from Itau (Brazilian largest private bank), and Bill have good relations with PSDB. She's all that coupist government wants.
#ForaTemer
#ForaHillary
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016 on: October 06, 2016, 09:59:11 pm
PT just can't get a break. Over the last 2 days (i) the Federal Police has unveiled a corruption scheme that financed the campaign of Governor of Bahia Rui Costa (PT/BA), (ii) the Federal Court of Audit has indicated it'll reprove Dilma Rousseff's 2015 accounts, and (iii) the Federal Police has just indicted Lula yet again (the 3rd time this year).
Federal Police's raid on PT is based on very weak elements. Operation went to an advertising agency linked to Bahia's DEM. And some elements linked to PP (Progressive Party) weren't denounced because they're linked to Temer's government as Federal Savings Bank CEO Gilberto Occhi and PP caucus leader Aguinaldo Ribeiro.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9) on: September 26, 2016, 10:18:56 am
Basque Country (99.9%)
EAJ/PNV 29; EH Bildu 17; Podemos 11; PSE-EE 9; PP 9

Galicia (95.4%)
PP 41; En Marea 14; PSOE 14; BNG 6
Massive failure for anti-PP opposition. Problems inside En Marea between En Marea, Anova and Podemos barred a large breakthrough and Feijóo was able to separate from national PP.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016 on: September 26, 2016, 09:59:25 am
Rio de Janeiro/RJ:

Datafolha poll, released Thursday.



Rio de Janeiro has seen a quite inelastic race so far, but a very exciting race nonetheless.

The undisputed frontrunner for now is Senator Marcelo Crivella, who's pretty much a lock for the runoff. Crivella, who's strongly tied to the powerful Universal evangelical church, was elected to the Senate in 2002 and reelected in 2010. Ever since his election he's tried to run for a major office on the Executive Branch, running for Mayor of Rio de Janeiro/RJ in 2004 and 2008 and for Governor of Rio in 2006 and 2014. However, only in 2014 he made it to the runoff. After so many failed bids, he's finally the frontrunner, propelled by evangelicals, low income voters and a huge split on the alternatives to him. His approval ratings are also noteworthy.

Against him, as you can see, there's a jam of candidates who are fighting for a spot on the runoff, which can be described in those groups:

(i) the left block, which is embodied by Congresswoman Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) and State Congressman Marcelo Freixo (PSOL). This is a curious situation where you a have someone who's closer to the establishment left, but adopts a stark leftist rhetoric (Feghali) and someone who's on a stark left wing party but has a speech that is palatable to centrist voters (Freixo). Freixo is ahead of Feghali (and all others) by a razor-thin margin right now;

(ii) the right block, embodied by Congressman Flavio Bolsonaro (PSC), son of Congressman Jair Bolsonaro (PSC), a far right politician who's a loony social conservative, and Congressman Indio da Costa (PSD), who's known as José Serra's running mate back in 2010, who's mostly a fiscal conservative. Both are slightly behind the other 3;

(iii) finally, there's Congressman Pedro Paulo (PMDB), who's the candidate endorsed by Mayor Eduardo Paes (PMDB) - a.k.a. the Olympic Mayor. Pedro Paulo has the support of the Federal Government, the State Government and the local government, he has the most TV/radio time of all candidates and has most interest groups on his side. However, he's being hurt by the anti establishment feeling of the electorate, Paes' declining ratings and suspicions of domestic violence against his wife. His approval ratings are very low, so it's hard to see him winning a runoff, but he's right next to Freixo and Feghali, so the power of the machine may just carry him into the runoff.

As you can imagine, tactical voting will be a factor here. However, there are just so many candidates fighting for a runoff spot that it's hard to get a clue of what will be the best tactic. On the left, Freixo's and Feghali's voters have been fighting on the web, both claiming they are the best positioned to make it to the runoff. On the right, voters may be afraid of letting Freixo or Feghali sneak into the runoff, what could for Pedro Paulo, who's the best positioned contender to stop those 2. It's interesting to note that 75% of da Costa's voters claim they could switch their votes before the election, clearly an indication that they'd be willing to vote tactically. The same is probably true about the 4% of votes carried right now by State Congressman Carlos Osorio (PSDB), that would probably lean to the right if his voters decide to vote tactically.

All in, this will go down to the wire.
In Rio de Janeiro, run-off will probably see a coronation of Marcelo Crivella because he's less unpopular between left and right. And candidate most like to be benefitted from right-wing tactical vote isn't Pedro Paulo, but Indio da Costa who have anti-Universal rhetorics and is in a not so toxic party to attract left-wing voters in runoff, although I think that he's most right-wing than Pedro Paulo and Carlos Osorio. PSDB in Rio lost strength after a failed government in 90s, while DEM collapsed after Cesar Maia (father of Speaker Rodrigo Maia and who is town councillor) failed 3rd term with white elephants like Music City and chaos in health services. And tactical vote in left will benefit Freixo who's most palatable to middle classes and can make inroads with poor people.
Rio's PMDB machine has panic of giving strength to Anthony Garotinho (main Crivella supporter), then they'll give a hidden support to anti-Crivella candidate because they're very toxic and they can't piss PRB votes in Congress.
The fun thing of a Crivella-left-runoff will be non-Universal evangelical vote. They hate Universal because they see them as monopolist church, but hate Freixo and Feghali because they're very supportive of abortion rights and gay marriage. But people like Silas Malafaia won't hesitate to support Crivella, specially after his support for impeachment. (
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazilian presidential election, 2018 on: September 14, 2016, 08:46:31 pm
Question to our experts: I think it's unlikely, but what are scenarios/procedures for holding an earlier election?
If Temer gets out until December 31, 2016, a special election will hold in 90 days. After that, Congress will elect a new President and Vice President in 30 days. There's an process against Rousseff-Temer ticket at Supreme Electoral Court and Temer can fall due to Car Wash scandals. Same provision is valid for states and cities. In 2010, after Pandora Box Scandal (DEM's Mensalao) that saw fall of governor Jose Roberto Arruda and lieutenant governor Paulo Octavio, Federal District Legislative Chamber chose Rogerio Rosso as governor to finish term.
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: September 14, 2016, 08:11:56 pm
One thing I just can't comprehend...

Temer was allowed to take office in August, despite being found guilty of breaking campaign finance rules in June. He's thus banned from running for any office for the next eight years, but somehow it's OK for him to take over as President.

Mind blown.
In judicial brazilian system, an electoral crime is a different to a common crime. And Temer was found guilty by 2nd degree trial who makes him a "dirty sheet" politician. But he's appealing this decision. Today, Regional Electoral Court of Sao Paulo is trying a similar case that can alter Temer's situation.
Today, "Car Wash" prosecutors indicted former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva for passive bribery and money laundering along former First Lady Marisa Leticia, aide Paulo Okamoto and people linked to builder OAS. In a power point full of mistakes, like "proinocracy", prosecutors tried to show that Lula received bribes and was maximum commander of Petrobras corruption scheme. This case is very weak, but "Car Wash" judge Moro is very likely to accept denounce and to find guilty, while PSDB politicians sleep soundly.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: September 13, 2016, 10:48:33 pm
In last Monday, former Speaker and coup's mastermind Eduardo Cunha (still PMDB-RJ) was expelled from Chamber of Deputies by 450 to 10 voting. 9 abstained (including Majority Leader André Moura, one of most loyal Cunha allies) and 43 were absent. Carlos Marun (PMDB-MS) was the only to speak in his favour, while Edson Moreira (PR-MG) spoke and abstained.  Speaker Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) didn't vote. Cunha after voting said that his expulsion from congress was made by a coalition between Temer, Maia, PT and allies. Many people in Temer's government fear a Cunha plea bargain.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016 on: September 09, 2016, 09:06:37 pm
Datafolha September 8th

São Paulo
Celso Russomano (PRB) 26%
Marta (PMDB) 21%
João Dória (PSDB) 16%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 9%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 7%
Major Olimpio (SD) 2%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 29%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 11%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 8%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 8%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 6%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 4%

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 30%
Alexandre Khalil (PHS) 19%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 4%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT) 4%

Recife
Geraldo Julio (PSB) 36%
João Paulo (PT) 34%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 11%

Porto Alegre
Sebastião Melo (PMDB) 22%
Raul Pont (PT) 19%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 17%
Nelson Marchezan (PSDB) 17%
PSOL is suffering effects of low television time and celebrity candidates get higher percentual of votes. This is a dreadful campaign for small parties.
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: September 05, 2016, 10:23:38 pm
There were demonstrations in many state capitals calling for Michel Temer's resignation and new presidential election.
In São Paulo, there were 100.000 demonstrators. After a peaceful rally, the riot police started the violence.
In previous day, effective illegitimate president said that acts were made only by "40 persons who only break cars".
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: September 02, 2016, 11:42:40 pm
For the Americans who read this thread, imagine the following situation, an analogy for Dilma's impeachment:

Consider that the USA has a Democratic president and a Republican strong majority in both houses of the Congress. The vice president is a conservative Democrat who has close ties to Republican leaders. The Democratic president accepted this ticket in the election in order to have centrist votes. There is an economic crisis. The president wants to increase taxes in order to reduce the budget deficits. The Congress wants to cut spending in welfare. No agreement is reached. Then, the Congress finds a minor mistake commited by the president as an excuse to impeach him. The conservative Democrat VP becomes the president and appoints top Republican leaders to be secretaries. He leads a conservative administration supported by the Republicans in the Congress. Since the USA is a more serious country, I don't believe this situation could happen there.
In Brazil, party presidents are very powerful. If they don't like a thing, party hardly will go for it. Temer was President of PMDB and Speaker of Chamber in 2010. And Temer wing remained very close to PSDB until 2006 (I remember Temer standing behind Alckmin in 2006 concession speech).
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: September 02, 2016, 11:22:21 pm
Repression is starting in Brazil. Sao Paulo's police repressed anti-Temer acts with ferocious methods. They used gas bombs and rubber bullets against demonstrators. Deborah Fabri, 19, student, lost eye view because of a rubber bullet against her. In Rio Grande do Sul, Mauro Rogerio Silva dos Santos, a lawyer was assaulted by policemen while he tried to prevent agressions against demonstrators. His son reacted against a policeman and was charged of a manslaughter attempt! He was tortured with attempts of asphyxia and death threats by policemen. And he's black, another factor that made torture stronger.

Torture video
In Salvador, there are anti-Temer acts everyday.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016 on: August 26, 2016, 11:23:16 pm
Until 2014, TV broadcasts had to invite for the debates all the candidates whose parties had seats in the House.
In 2015, the Congress approved an Act which established that candidates whose parties don't have at least 10 seats in the House (there are 513 seats in the House) should not participate in the TV debates. The authors of this Act were two right-wing representatives from Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Cunha and Rodrigo Maia. There was a clear target: PSOL, the far-left party who has 6 seats. Although PSOL is a small party in the national level, Marcelo Freixo is a popular politician in Rio de Janeiro. He is a strong candidate for mayor. That's why the right wing representatives want to exclude him from the debates.
Because of this act, both Marcelo Freixo (PSOL candidate in Rio de Janeiro) and Luiza Erundina (PSOL candidate in São Paulo) did not participate in the TV debates. During the debates, they made rallies in public square, with TV public viewing. They made comments about the debate, while the debate was taking place.

Yesterday, the Supreme Court considered that Cunha's and Maia's Act did not respect the Constitution, and so, it will be not valid anymore. Marcelo Freixo and Luiza Erundina can be invited for the next debates. It is an absurd to exclude them. They are polling in the level of double digits.
In Rio's debate, Flavio Bolsonaro (PSC) had a seizure and was helped by Carlos Osorio (PSDB) and Jandira Feghali (PC do B). Jandira is a doctor. But his father, congressman Jair Bolsonaro refused Jandira's help. And in a fun note that Bolsonaro's son said that Dilma should have a seizure in a 2014 debate against Aecio Neves (PSDB).
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: August 25, 2016, 09:19:10 pm
Today, Coup's Trial was started by Senate, presided by President of Supreme Court Ricardo Lewandowsky. Audit's Court Prosecutor Julio Marcelo, one of main accusers of President Dilma Rousseff, was refused as witness, because his positions for rejection of Dilma's govermnent accounts. He was accepted only as informant, unable to produce proofs against Rousseff.
And Car Wash are receiving attacks from pro-PSDB members of Judiciary after a leak of OAS (building company) about a household renovation of Federal Supreme Court Minister Dias Toffoli (Lula's appointee but that became aligned with Gilmar Mendes, most anti-PT Supreme Court minister).
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: How Brazil’s Libertarian Movement Helped Bring Down a President on: August 05, 2016, 11:00:28 pm
Free Brazil Movement (Movimento Brasil Livre, MBL) is one of biggest jokes that we have. Main spokesperson Kim Kataguiri sent a belfie when a left-wing internet news portal sent questions to him. Renan Santos, another MBL leader, has 65 lawsuits against him and his businesses. And they received money from anti-Dilma parties, including from Moreira Franco (former Rio de Janeiro governor and one of Temer top aides). They have strong connections with former Speaker Eduardo Cunha.
Revoltados Online, another anti-Dilma movement, is more of a business commanded by Marcelo Reis who is media-seeking with a pro-fascist rhetoric who wants to get money. He was married with Carla Zambelli, former Femen Brazil leader, founder of Nas Ruas. Another Femen Brazil leader Sara Winter joined Social Christian Party (Bolsonaro's party).
In time, Reverend Marco Feliciano (PSC-SP), one of main social conservatives in Congress is being accused of sex harassment and rape. His Chief of Staff was jailed today for trying to intimidate girl and tried to bribe her.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 17, 2016, 02:35:31 pm
Killing Erdogan to create another Menderes. Coup leaders wouldn't be dumb to kill him.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 11:35:53 pm
Ergenekon convictions being made void showed that Judiciary main leaders would be open to legitimize a military coup. But for many elements in Turkey society (youth, peasants, working class, Kurds), Erdogan is lesser evil than military because of memoirs from Evran times.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 06:10:35 pm
Any chance of this being False Flag? Kkkk, but Erdogan is one of my favourite world leaders. Better than establishment pro-business and fascist pro-military that always went against Turkish people. But establishment prefers a leader with their trust than Erdogan as member of anti-imperialist axis with Putin and Assad.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: July 07, 2016, 07:40:27 pm
Eduardo Cunha resigned today. He is not the president of the House anymore. But he is still a representative. Maybe, there was an agreement with his allies so that he could resign without losing his term as a representative.
Eduardo Cunha met Michel Temer in Temer's office last week.
He's a removed representative. Things for Cunha are very complicated. His main bribe operator, Lucio Bolonha Funaro, was arrested after a bargain plea by Flavio Cleto, former Vice President of Caixa. Cunha was appointed as receiver of 80% of bribes. But a delation of Cunha is very feared by usurper acting government. Now Cunha is under juridisction of 2nd Group of Federal Supreme Court, led by Gilmar Mendes, a very pro-PSDB partisan judge, who makes a pact to save Cunha very likely.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 28, 2016, 12:53:48 pm
You would think these idiots would stop talking about shady s[Inks] on telephones that might be tapped.
Machado taped not on phone, but during personal meetings with barons. As he served in Senate, he still had links with Senate masters, like Sarney, Calheiros and Jucá.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 28, 2016, 12:43:42 am
I think that a new election is the best solution for the political crisis.

But a new election can take place only if both Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer resign. Or if Michel Temer resign after the end of Dilma's impeachment process.
If he resign until December 31th 2016 (first half of the term), the new election will be direct. If he resign after December 31th 2016, the Congress will vote for the new president.

Michel Temer will resign only if there is a big pressure.
I think that, unfortunately, he will be the president until December 31th 2018.



Well, there will be pressure. At least as much pressure as Dilma faced. The question is, when is it coming to head: before or after the end of the year. It is hard to see how he survives to the end of the current term once sh**t truly hits the fan.

I have a suggestion. They should somehow get Pele into Congress, have him appointed Speaker, have Temer resign and have Pele be president for the Olympics, with election happening shortly thereafter. This is, probably, the only way Brazil avoids being a scray laughing stock right at the moment all the attention is on it.
Romário is already in Senate.
But things are getting uglier for PMDB. Now, in more one of Machado tapes, former Transpetro CEO is talking about that he helped the traitor and usurper acting President Michel Temer to finance Gabriel Chalita's failed campaign to mayor of São Paulo. And there are talks about a Machado tape with Temer.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 23, 2016, 08:53:43 pm
Minister of Planning and Budget Romero Jucá (PMDB-RR) is first casualty of Temer's cabinet. He resigned after wiretapping between him and former senator Sérgio Machado (PMDB-CE), who served as CEO of Transpetro (oil transport Petrobras subsidiary) about stopping Operação Lava Jato. They talked about stopping Lava Jato and that Dilma's impeachment was the only way to do it. They talked about PSDB links to corruption schemes (They were leaders of Cardoso's government and were members of PSDB before supporting Lula), saying that "Aécio will be first to be eaten". There are talks that Machado is doing a plea bargain and have tapes with Renan Calheiros and José Sarney.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: World's most demented electoral system? on: May 19, 2016, 08:34:35 pm
Brazil Open List who allow bizarre coalitions between rent parties like PP (former military dictatorship party) and PC do B (former Hoxhaist party), with corporation money who is behind political crisis in Brazil.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 11, 2016, 10:53:29 pm
What are "substitution deputies"? Could someone please explain that?
Brazil legislative system is elected by open list with parties that can be united for election, but not for . But legislators can leave to serve in cabinets (federal, statewide and state capitals). Then, legislators can be replaced by legislators that stayed behind in list until legislators go back. In senate, "substitution senators" are elected in same ticket, usually campaign financers or family members, like Raimundo Lira (PMDB-PB), chairman of Senate Impeachment Committee who replaced Vital do Rego who went to a lifelong job to Audit Court and is now implicated in bribes of Lava Jato. They replace congressman if they get elected to another position too, like to be mayor or senators (who have eight years-term), usually, to become governors.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 09, 2016, 11:57:09 pm
Apparently Maranhao voted against the impeachment? How was he chosen, anyway?
He is a Cunha allied. He was the PP's indicated in the Cunha list for the chamber election last year, as the VP of the House.

He was in favour for impeachment, but the fact that Sarney Family (that became enemies) turned pro impeachment made him change sides (besides, the fact that Flavio Dino, Maranhão's Governor, promised to support him for Senate in 2018 may helped).

He can be a infiltrated agent of Cunha too, no one knows.

Well, politics in Brasil looks like everyday less House of Cards and more just like that other series, yes, Lost.
Maranhão turned back as Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP's chairman and in deep problems with Car Wash) threatened him of expelling of party and of asking his mandate back.
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 08, 2016, 08:52:08 pm
So, the door closes on Dilma, hits Cunha on the way out, and Temer's daughter is getting ready to be first lady.
No. Temer has a trophy wife who's 40 years younger than him. There was a meme about her "bela, recatada e do lar!". One of Temer's daughters, Luciana Temer disagrees with impeachment and stayed with Fernando Haddad government.
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