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May 30, 2015, 07:46:07 am
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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: America now FIFA's savior on: May 27, 2015, 03:48:13 pm
Former President of CBF (Brazilian Confederation of Football), José Maria Marin, served as governor of São Paulo between 1982-83. He was lieutenant to Paulo Maluf (PP-SP), who is also wanted by American justice.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Map: voting systems in the world on: May 27, 2015, 01:37:09 am
Origin of this thread was voting of law to change Brazilian from open list proportional representation to a multi-members constituency (distritão), supported by Speaker Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) and Vice President Michel Temer (PMDB-SP). Luckily this had been defeated.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th on: May 26, 2015, 05:36:42 am
Possibly they have noted what happened with the LibDems. The discredit of PP due to corruption scandals is another factor, in all likelihood much more important. In that regard, there's not an analogous situation in the UK.
Navarra Podemos alliance with Bildu and Geroa Bai can provide a narrative legitimizing Ciudadanos' alliance with PP.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th on: May 24, 2015, 02:05:39 pm
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
In 1989, third-placed CDS got Madrid's mayoralty with PP's support.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Vice President Rick Perry on: May 23, 2015, 09:06:21 am
Elementar problem behind this thread... Perry replacement as senator would be named by KBH and Democrats would need his seat.
Suggestion: Perry not running for Governor in 2002, becoming Majority Leader after Gephardt and Speaker in 2006.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Polish presidential election, 2015 on: May 12, 2015, 06:10:52 pm
Can Kukiz have enough strength to found a Palikot-like party to be a strong player in Legislative elections?
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Cameron 2.0 on: May 10, 2015, 10:01:49 pm
How long before he goes full Rajoy?
He's on a 1-seat majority and any austerity maneuvers will be only suicide to him. He'll need to buy Ulster unionists and LD won't get to be like National Liberals. Then, with some disagreements he can be out government in smaller time than expected...
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 06:34:50 pm
Depend on what bases coalition develops, NDP supporting a Trudeau as PM is a way of reawakening Bloc Quebecois. If NDP gets ahead, Liberals would surrender and accept coalition, as their last bullet (Trudeau) failed.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 11:16:32 pm
Will Tory go in coalition with LD rump caucus or go minority deals with LD and DUP?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 10:32:28 pm
Boris "Raving Loony" elected.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hungary By-Election, Tapolca on: April 13, 2015, 06:15:03 pm
Will Fidesz try to change FPTP? Or they fear that a French run-off system will scrap things for them?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 06:38:29 am
Why are people talking about Avramopoulos (ND EU Commissioner) as Tsipras' presidential choice?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton aides already talking about VP options on: January 27, 2015, 05:04:18 pm
Another thing that we can think is about of Hillary choosing another female, but young enough to be seen as VP. This can be Maggie Hassan, Heitkamp, Klobuchar, McCaskill or Baldwin would be options.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 03:41:48 pm
Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise. I'm sure a SYRIZA minority government would be fine for a few months, but what happens once they have to push their first controversial vote through parliament, or if a few MPs desert? If Tsipras wants to survive as PM, and actually accomplish something of value, he needs a coalition partner, and KKE isn't it. It is just a simple reality, and an election promise can't change that.  
I believe that many of KKE voters are ones of who want KKE not to be irrational opponent of Tsipras, but a left-wing check on his policies.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 02:07:10 pm
Epic fail DIMAR!
Who is Gklestsos?
And how Union of Centrists to get a large surge...
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Senators do you think will retire in 2016? on: January 14, 2015, 09:51:44 pm
Grassley will stay because he hopes to be PPT in 2021.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where should Hillary Clinton build her library? on: December 20, 2014, 05:01:42 am
Chelsea has a Masters from Columbia.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who Governs Sweden? Swedish Early Election - 22 March 2015 on: December 11, 2014, 05:55:34 pm
 
my guess is that a lot of voters from V, MP and FI will be wandering of to S soon. SD will be the big winners of this election so their gamble with voting down the governments budget seems to have paid of for now.

How come? It could bring V in danger if true.
I remember Netherlands, where  VVD and PVDA polarized election enough to get  majority to do a great coalition.
Wouldn't be wise for one of Alliance parties to leave it and run independently?
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: November 12, 2014, 08:15:02 pm
Strange that Montebourg wasn't polled as PS, FG or Independent candidate.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: November 11, 2014, 07:52:54 pm
How did Juppé get so popular?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Should we make voting mandatory? on: November 08, 2014, 06:54:14 pm
Voting is mandatory in Brazil, but you can dodge it if you justify your absence only by showing at a poll station in other city than you vote. My mom vote in another city and justified her absence in Presidential run-off going to my poll station with a form that I downloaded in Electoral Justice. To justify after election day, you have only to show at a notary to pay a fine of R$ 3.50 (U$ 1.40) until 60 days. If you don't show for it, you'll get serious restrictions, like passport denying, no loans at state-owned bank, refused public jobs and studying at state-owned universities. This year abstention rate was 19.4% (highest since 1998 21.5%).
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democratic Bench in GA on: November 07, 2014, 04:40:38 pm
John Barrow is probably the only one who can pull off a successful statewide campaign. Maybe we could recruit Clark Howard??
Cantwell was defeated in House 1994 and returned to Senate in 2000. Barrow can comeback.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Harry Reid to run for Minority Leader on: November 05, 2014, 07:37:34 pm
A good option could be Reid leaving and putting someone as a transitional Democratic Leader who wouldn't do harm, like Markey or Cardin. Then, Democrats should put a new generation leader, like Gillibrand, Heinrich or Baldwin. Cory Booker wouldn't be good as he would seen as Barack Obama 2.0.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 26, 2014, 09:35:46 pm
This election seems to also be the victory for Datafolha.  Their last poll of 52-48 was pretty much on target.
I hope that they poll Bahia statewide election in 2018. IBOPE made horrible job there.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 26, 2014, 09:22:11 pm
What took place in Alagoas and Sergipe? Aecio got completely smashed there and lost double digit or near double digit swings from 2010.  Same for Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí.  All of them arefrom the same region of the Northeast.  Why is the Northeast so much more anti-PSDB than 2010 ?
In Alagoas, PSDB governor Vilela didn't ran for nothing and Renan Calheiros Jr. won governorship in 1st round. In Rio Grande do Norte, Serra had then elected-governor Rosalba Ciarlini's endorsement and Dilma had support from a weak incumbent, while now governor-elect Robinson Faria (PSD) and Henrique Eduardo Alves (PMDB) endorsed her. In Sergipe, governor-elect Jackson Barreto (PMDB) worked for Dilma and Mayor of Aracaju João Alves didn't put much strength. And Piaui elected Wellington Dias (PT) for a 3rd term. I believe that is because Northeast needs Federal government support, then with pro-Dilma governors, there are massive swings to her.
And Alagoas was Serra's only state in Lula's 2002 first victory.
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