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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Path to a Kasich Nomination? on: February 09, 2016, 11:24:17 pm
Main plan should be a New England plan. Kasich should do some campaign in Nevada to get a decent showing, but throw his NH resources to MA and VT to fight Trump, while Jeb and Rubio goes South leaving him as only anti-Trump on place. Pay attention to AK (a moderate state), MN and WY too. In same week, he should go to ME. He should pray that Jeb and Rubio get nothing from SuperTuesday to get them to dropout and fight alone against Trump and Cruz.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: February 09, 2016, 01:39:40 am
Great to see yet another Foro de São Paulo candidate sinking without trace.

Better a Foro de Sao Paulo candidate than la hija de un dictador.
Neither Foro de Sao Paulo, neither Keiko will win. Acuña will get late surge and get a place in run-off.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Marco Rubio's blowing it... for 2020 and 2024 on: February 07, 2016, 09:46:29 pm
People say that Rubio will run for Governor of Florida if he doesn't become the monimee.  Of course, the question is whether or not Rubio could be elected Governor of Florida.  He'd be running for an office after leaving an office to run for President from and lose.  Could he win a Republican primary?  There are other Republicans who want to be Governor, most notably FL Attorney General Pam Bondi, who has won statewide twice.  Why should she step aside for Rubio, especially when she's term limited?  Why would Republican voters view Rubio as someone deserving?  How would Rubio be viewed by independents after running a failed Presidential campaign?  And how would Florida's GOP (and the national GOP, for that matter) would view Rubio if, after giving up his seat for a failed Presidential run, Democrat Patrick Murphy wins Rubio's Senate seat? 

If Rubio fails to become the nominee, he needs to immediately get some kind of high-profile Cabinet level position.  Even Ambassador to the UN would suffice.  If it's Trump that gets elected and Trump shuts out Rubio, he should try to become RNC Chairman.  Short of that, he'll become a has-been. 


Remember that Bill Nelson's seat is going to be in election in 2018... Rubio can broke a deal to get free-run in gubernatorial race.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-CNN/WMUR Poll: Trump leading, Rubio in 2nd on: February 04, 2016, 10:06:48 pm
With Democratic primary likely-to-safe to Sanders, then Independents will have a strong say in Republican primary. And this can help Trump.
Establishment trio (Kasich, Jeb and Christie) should go all-out on Rubio saying that he's unexperienced to be the nominee.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Convention Keynote Speakers on: January 28, 2016, 09:01:49 pm
GOP: Tim Scott
DEM: Kamala Harris
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: "Most likely I won't be doing the debate." UPDATE: He's out on: January 26, 2016, 07:44:16 pm
In Brazil, candidates with good numbers in polls usually refuse to debate. I think that this is a good strategy for Trump:
-He makes debate less attractive for people
-He allows another candidates to take spotlight and reinforce establishment division
-He won't have to answer attacks
-And Cruz will be most attacked candidate on stage

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pataki to Endorse Next Week on: January 24, 2016, 01:02:09 pm
1) Kasich
2) Rubio
3) Christie
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Barack Obama vs Al Gore vs Hillary Clinton on: January 20, 2016, 06:36:40 pm
Gore might rely on a "Southern Strategy", while Clinton focuses on the Pacific + NE + NY +NJ + DE. Obama would then sweep the rest and be the main opposition to both.


Gore: 35.3%
Obama: 32.2%
Clinton: 29.0%

Depending on who wins
To Gore, Southern strategy wouldn't work as he'd fight with black vote for Obama. And WV and KY wouldn't go to anti-coal Democrat. Better strategy to him would be focusing on Corn Belt and Praires (biofuels), while doing retail politics in non-coal South white rural voters. And put a good structure in Pacific coast, as they're more enviromentalist. Gore'08 was a good fit for IA and NH. And in a gentlepeople's agreement, he'd surrender AR to Clinton, while she gives him TN.
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Sanctions on Iran Officially Lifted with UN's Blessing on: January 17, 2016, 12:37:05 pm
I'd like to know what are Saudis and another Gulf Emirates thinking about it... Keep high oil production and lose money, but taking money from Iran and Russia too or cut production and get high prices, but giving money to Iran and Russia?
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Koch bros: Trump's Muslim ban would 'destroy our free society' on: January 08, 2016, 09:44:14 pm
Koch bros. can't stand on way of their Gulf business partners. $$$$$$$
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics on: December 20, 2015, 05:29:10 pm
Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162
You should put Unidad Popular with left-wing bloc.
Kingmakers will be Catalonian separatists.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: December 17, 2015, 07:15:52 pm
Good news to Brazilian Democracy:
-Supreme Court said that procedures made by Speaker Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) are illegal and ordered to make a re-vote of Impeachment Commitee, with open vote and a list made by parliamentary leaders.
-Pro-Dilma Leonardo Picciani (PMDB-RJ) got back PMDB Caucus Leadership from pro-Cunha Leonardo Quintão (PMDB-MG).
-Attorney General Rodrigo Janot asked to remove Speaker Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) from office. After a raid on his home, they found papers to blackmail other congressmen.
-Budget was voted today. Then, Congress will go to recess until February. Minister of Finances Joaquim Levy (non partisan) will resign after a replacement is announced.
-President of the Senate Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL) is in open war against Vice President Michel Temer (PMDB-SP).
-Yesterday, in all of Brazilian capitals, anti-impeachment protesters (include me) went to street against impeachment, corruption, but against government cuts too.
But, a sad note:
-Judiciary will go to recess. Then Brazil will have more one month of Eduardo Cunha as Speaker.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Venezuela National Assembly Elections, Dec. 6 2015 on: December 09, 2015, 07:06:22 pm
Then probably Julio Borges as speaker?
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: December 07, 2015, 05:56:34 pm
Eduardo Cunha has opened impeachment proceedings against Dilma! Now the House will oficially take on the matter. A special commission will be formed and after that the whole House will decide. If a 2/3 supermajority approves it, Dilma will be provisionally removed from the presidency and the matter will be sent to the Senate for a final decision.

Dilma's goose is cooked.
Cunha is going to be removed from office. And PT is against him. Dilma is very likely to survive. Opposition won't have strength to get 2/3 of votes and Dilma got a massive victory in Congress today.

Dilma only had this "massive victory" because Brazil would have ran into a government shutdown if she didn't - something not even the opposition wanted.

It'll be 1992 all over again. Dilma's abysmal ratings and public pressure will guide the unideological center towards the impeachment. The PMDB is already in favor. Temer is salivating right now. Plus, impeaching Dilma will be a perfect smokescreen for those in fear of the Petrobras scandal. The PT only abandoned Cunha because they'd rather throw Dilma under the bus than hurting the party brand more. The economy will shrink further due to this whole mess and the business sector will fully support the impeachment because Temer should have little trouble guiding some sort of a national unity government until 2018.

There are rumors that the PMDB and the PSDB already sealed an agreement about the after-Dilma. Temer would have full PSDB support and would probably place many high profile Toucans in his cabinet. Then in 2018 Temer would run for Governor of São Paulo, with support from the PSDB. Meanwhile, with the economy recovering and many PT leaders in jail, someone like Aecio Neves or Jose Serra would be in prime position to run for the presidency.
This is incorrect. If Temer runs for São Paulo Governorship in 2008, if Dilma gets impeached, he would have to resign Presidency to run. And PSDB wouldn't surrender their fortress for any other.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: December 02, 2015, 05:35:44 pm
Eduardo Cunha has opened impeachment proceedings against Dilma! Now the House will oficially take on the matter. A special commission will be formed and after that the whole House will decide. If a 2/3 supermajority approves it, Dilma will be provisionally removed from the presidency and the matter will be sent to the Senate for a final decision.

Dilma's goose is cooked.
Cunha is going to be removed from office. And PT is against him. Dilma is very likely to survive. Opposition won't have strength to get 2/3 of votes and Dilma got a massive victory in Congress today.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (1st Round, Oct 25 / Runoff Nov 22) on: November 22, 2015, 09:00:27 pm
Imho Macri will be below 52.0% in the end. But still a nice win.
Why is Cordoba so right-wing ?
UCR historically is very strong in Cordoba province, they only lose province after forming Alliance. And De La Sota have a youth feud with Zanini (Scioli's running-mate).
In San Luis, Rodriguez Sáa's home province, Macri is gaining by 2-to-1.
But this a face-saving defeat for Scioli, as it means that he was defeated by a closer-than-expected margin and that he can be one of leaders to rebuild Peronism. And Cristina will be strong for 2019.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Elections and Politics, 2015 ed. on: November 16, 2015, 06:32:17 pm
I'd like to see Centre-Right vs. M5S in a run-off.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: South Africa General Discussion on: November 10, 2015, 05:51:12 pm
Mmusi Maimane elected as the new DA leader.
How many years that South Africa will need to elect a non-black to President?
(Indians count too).
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Helmut Schmidt dies, aged 96 on: November 10, 2015, 03:31:09 pm
Did he finish 38000 menthol cigarettes stock? RIP, FF.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (1st Round, Oct 25 / Runoff Nov 22) on: October 28, 2015, 08:06:11 pm
From the gubernatorial elections you missed (...)

Thanks, I was almost asleep.

I'd try to get another endorsements as Rodríguez Sáa brothers, Solanas, Lousteau.

Solanas is a non-entity, wonder why would anyone seek his endorsement. In any case, a few days ago he made a tweet that said "Proyecto Sur, que siempre se enfrentó electoralmente al kirchnerismo y al macrismo,  propone votar contra el gobierno nacional." From which we can infer he would probably vote for noone or support Macri.

And Lousteau is another one that doesn't really matter for the national election, but apart from having meeting with the opposition governor of Mendoza he tweeted this yesterday "Alternancia, más equilibrio, balotaje @mariuvidal y no @FernandezAnibal, renovación de intendentes PBA. #lagentevotabien." Which also implies his support for macri against Scioli.


De la Sota is probably noticing right now that Macri got around 53% in Córdoba while Massa and Scioli barely reached 20% and they don't even get 40% between the two of them. If I were him I would be pressing Massa strongly to form an alliance with Macri.

Solanas is about to quit politics and doesn't count.

I'm almost certain that Lousteau will be a key actor in the near future. Don't you think that a rising star like him counts a little more than the retiring film maker? 

As for De la Sota, the result in Córdoba seems to confirm that provincial Peronists are firmly anti-Kirchner. There were previous rumours on a possible understanding between the provincial leader and Scioli, in order to put an end to the Kirchner's mistreatment to Córdoba (Cristina treated badly former BsAs Gov Scioli, too). But people has spoken and that alliance is totally discarded. Lavagna, who is from the province and a friend of De la Sota, assures that Scioli offered him a cabinet post. Such offer was refused (on Scioli's camp they deny talks with Lavagna). Former Minister of Economy says that Scioli is unable to drop the Ultra-K people and hopes that an agreement between Macri and Massa pushes the first to the centre.

On a separate issue, turnout increase might explain the surprising election results. About 2 million of voters more turned out on Sunday (80.8%, 74% in the PASO ). Mauricio Macri added 1.6 million votes, Sergio Massa 0.5 and Daniel Scioli only 0.2.
And De La Sota has personal problems from troubling 70s in Peronist Youth with Carlos Zannini that would prevent endorsement. But I can see that almost every non-Macri anti-K  leader saying no to Scioli, but fearing to endorse Macri to fearing backfire from a Neoliberal adjustment. But with Scioli's defeat, Dissident Peronism will lose their raison d'etre. Some will join PRO and others would go back into Kirchnerist ranks. Thinking about 2019, I can see Schiaretti (governor of Cordoba) as a good option of running mate to Cristina.
And about Michetti as Vice President. We know that was a maneuver to appease her after Macri supporting Rodriguez Larreta, and this was only because UCR infighting about a running-mate candidate. Any chance of an "no es positivo" again? But Senate will be fun in next 2 years with Anibal Fernandez vs. Julio Cobos.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Poland election - October 25 2015 on: October 27, 2015, 09:55:42 pm
With tradition of breaking-aparts in PiS, will this government go full term? And which position Kaczynski will get? Minister or Marshal of Sejm?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (General Election, Oct 25) on: October 27, 2015, 09:49:07 pm
Stolbizer said that she wouldn't vote for Scioli.
I think that for Scioli winning in runoff, price will be very costly as he will have to surrender many things to Massa people. Some people are saying that he promised Foreign Affairs to De La Sota and Economy to Lavagna. A very high price that Cristina would have some problems to solve and that can bring an earlier than expected Cristina-Scioli split. I'd try to get another endorsements as Rodríguez Sáa brothers, Solanas, Lousteau.
I'd rate election now as Likely Macri.
And are people already talking how Macri will split his cabinet. I think that problems will arouse as UCR will demand a larger share as it gave campaign structure to Macri, as PRO is almost inexistent outside Buenos Aires and to attract Non-K Peronists and even people that are with Scioli now.
But Argentina politics is very interesting as candidates that made good showings in a election go to become non-entities in next election, as Bordon, Lopez Murphy and now Binner.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (General Election, Oct 25) on: October 26, 2015, 12:47:51 pm
It's amusing to see how Saá got only 1.67% nationally but still won his family's stronghold San Luis.


But Saa is almost dead as he had less than 40% at home province.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Poland election - October 25 2015 on: October 26, 2015, 07:16:58 am
If PSL goes out, then they'll die or can they hope for ressurection in a FDP mode? And left? Will they try to join PO, or be lead by Razem people.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (General Election, Oct 25) on: October 25, 2015, 10:51:31 pm
Kingmakers in run-off will go from Massa and De La Sota to Rodriguez Saa and Trots. If Vidal ends winning BA governorship, I as Macri, I'd offer Massa to be my candidate to governor in 2019, a top cabinet position to De La Sota and Rodriguez Saa, a good thing to Massa running-mate. And Macri will have few things to offer to Massa and De La Sota main enemies on Cordoba are with him.
And I'm very sad that Fernández is being defeated as he and running-mate Sabbatella are very K.
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