Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 21, 2017, 12:44:58 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 42
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Presidential Election 2018 on: August 15, 2017, 10:28:34 pm
Maybe this isn't the correct thread, but I didn't find a thread about brazilian politics in general. After the last labour reform, I read in some media in my country, that the current government is analyzing an electoral reform that would change the way the representatives would be elected, and the financing of political parties.
The article I read refers to the possibility and support of PSDB and some right-wing parties for a transition to a parliamentary system (is any general consensus about this in brazilian politics/society?) and the change from the current system (i think it's PR party-list) to a single non-transferable vote (SNTV) that it's only used according to the article in Afghanistan and Jordan and it's opposed by the majority of the academia. They also propose to eliminate re-election for executive mandates (president, governors, mayors), an increase of it from 4 years to 5 years and the end of compulsatory voting.
Is any of this reforms really taking place or it's just speculation?
Yes, our parliament is discussing now Political Reform. After ban on companies financing political campaigns and all scandals, discussions about campaign finance reform got strong. They're trying to find a system who matches with public financing of campaign.
Our system is a proportional open list where the aggregate vote by coalition candidates will determine the number of seats, while the order will be made by order of votes. This system has lot of critics because of "Tiririca effect", where a well-voted congressman gets enough votes to bring weaker ticket mates. This is named after congressman and clown Tiririca (PR, Sao Paulo) got elected with a lot of protest votes and helped to bring congressmen with 30k votes in Sao Paulo, while other with 100 k votes failed to be elected. But most bizarre situation of this kind was in 2002, when perennial candidate Eneas (then of Prona, Sao Paulo) ran for congress and got record 1,573,642 votes and brought a congressman who got only 275 votes, a number that usually can't elect a councilman even in small cities. Well-voted candidates ended not elected, like Luciana Genro in 2010 (PSOL, Rio Grande do Sul) and sports journalist Jorge Kajuru (PRP, Goias). This was already adressed by 2015 mini-reform where a candidate will need 10% of electoral quocient (number of votes to get one seat) to be electable. Other problem are coalitions, that allowed bizarre coalitions like DEM, PSDB, PSB PMDB and PC do B in Pernambuco, while PT failed to elect a congressman in Lula's birth state because allied candidates got most voted.
The reporter of political reform, Vicente Candido (PT, Sao Paulo) proposed to keep current system for 2018 general election and 2020 local elections and to change to mixed-member system in 2022. But more right-wing parties and big tent parties (DEM, PSDB, PP, PSD) wants to put SNTV (we call Distritao, or big-district system) system as transition rule because they want to keep traditional politicians stronger and to limit growth of more ideological parties. One of most notorius supporters is president Temer.
Most of critics of this transition rule say that this will prevent new candidates of trying to enter politics, while voting won't reflect people ideological positions weakening political parties. Because of that, some parties who rely in big-name candidates, like PR and PRB, and more ideological parties (PT, PC do B, PDT, PSOL). In current system, PT could get a boost from Lula's support, like in 2002, but in big district, they would be luckier to keep current seats. Bolsonaro's people also don't like this system, because they have plans to elect a ultraconservative bench in next year elections, with Bolsonaro's children as vote pushers in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
Congress needs to put this in vote before October 7, because electoral rules need to be approved 1 year before election. After Temer's charge voting, congressional works is almost stopped (Big Center parties desire to take some of PSDB positions in government), while government tries to get support to enlarge debt target from 139 billions of reals to 159 billions.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Argentina Legislative Election 2017 on: August 14, 2017, 08:19:46 pm
I'm sad to say, but unless Macri massively collapses in next 2 years, CFK presidential chances are very weak. Her only chance is to reunite all of Peronist factions (Massa, De La Sota, Randazzo, Rodriguez Saa brothers). And I'm surprised that historic Partido Intransigente appeared well at Mendoza.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Sphere of Influence: How American Libertarians Are Remaking Lat Am Politics on: August 11, 2017, 08:17:09 pm
MBL ("Free Brazil Movement") is weakest than this journalist thinks, but they're a arm of Koch brothers in Brazil. Their main figures are getting big money employment from anti-PT local administrations. His town councillor in Sao Paulo, Fernando Holiday (DEM, same party of speaker Maia), was elected paying electoral worker without putting into campaign official account. They're dangerous, but they're a fraud.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AR-Sen- Could Fmr. Gov. Beebe run in 2020? on: July 29, 2017, 05:53:35 am
Another question... Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders primary Cotton? It would be epic!
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: July 15, 2017, 09:26:50 pm
Temer's criminal procedure report made by congressman Sergio Zveiter (PMDB-RJ) was rejected in Committee of Constitutional Affairs and Justice of Chamber by 41-20 vote. Another report, against indictment, was made by Paulo Abi-Ackel (PSDB-MG), consecrating Aecio-Temer alliance for survival. Of six PSDB members in committee, only two voted for Temer. From Maia's DEM, 3 voted against indictment and one voted for. Government's ally parties (PMDB, PTB, PR, PSD, PP) changed members to defeat Zveiter's report. Government freed a lot of money to buy support.
Lula's sentence and Temer's victor were a cover up after a labor reform was approved by Senate without ammendments.
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: July 01, 2017, 06:06:53 pm
Yesterday was a great day for Temer's allies: Aecio Neves (PSDB-MG) got back right to serve in Senate after a decision of Minister Marco Aurelio Mello (Collor's cousin) while Rodrigo Rocha Loures (PMDB-PR), known as Temer's "bag man" who carried JBS bribe money for Temer was released by Minister Edson Fachin.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 28, 2017, 11:56:43 am
Why did PRG not joined Socialist Group? And Corses? Which group would they fit best?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Argentina Legislative Election 2017 on: June 28, 2017, 11:20:45 am
Buenos Aires City:
Vamos Juntos
  Elisa "Lilita" Carrió (CC-ARI), Carmen Polledo (Pro), Fernando Iglesias (CC), Juan Manuel López (CC), Paula Oliveto (CC), Alejandro García (Pro), Facundo Suárez Lastra (UCR), Joanna Picetti (Pro), Jorge Enríquez (Pro), Patricia Holzman (Pro), Agustín Giustinian (Pro).
  Martin Lousteau, Carla Carrizo (UCR), Álvaro de Lamadrid (UCR), Mariano Genovesi (UCR)
Unidad Porteña
   -Unidad Ciudadana, Daniel Filmus (FPV)Gabriela Cerruti (Nuevo Encuentro), Juan Cabandié (FPV/La Cámpora), Carlos Heller (Partido Solidario), Gisela Marziotta, Gustavo López (Forja), Gabriela Alegre (FPV), Lucrecia Cardozo, Augusto Costa, Francisco Cafiero (PJ), Juliana Sette, Daniel Gollán, Juan Pablo O'Dezaille
   -Ahora Buenos Aires, Itai Hagman(Patria Grande), Elizabeth Gómez Alcorta (PG)
   -Honestidad y Coraje, Guillermo Moreno (La Néstor Kirchner), María Lucila "Pimpi" Colombo (LNK), Adrián Andreatta, Rubén Zampini.
Avancemos hacia un País Mejor
  Matías Tombolini, Florencia Arietto (FR), Raquel Vivanco (Libres del Sur)
Frente de Izquierda
   Marcelo Ramal(PO), Laura Marrone (Izquierda Socialista), Patricio del Corro (PTS)
Autodeterminación y Libertad
   Luis Zamora
Izquierda al Frente
    Alejandro Bodart (MST), Marina Robles (Nuevo MAS), César Latorre (MST)
Convocatoria Abierta por Buenos Aires,
   Claudio Lozano (Unidad Popular), María Elena Barbagelata (Partido Socialista)
Sur en Marcha
   Enrique Viale,  Damián Solanas
Partido Humanista   
   Pablo Baqué, Mariana Lettis, Marcelo Neira, Alejandra Paiz
Who are favourites in the City?Who's better positioned in far-left, Zamora, Frente de Izquierda or Sur en Marcha?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 21, 2017, 09:57:05 pm
PCF won't make a parliamentary group with FI. The FI-PCF split is 16-11 rather than 17-10 as indicated by Ministere de l'Interieur (they labelled a PCF as FI). PCF claim to have got 4 Outre-mer MPs to get the 15 required for a group.
Probably Bello (La Réunion 2), Azérot (Martinique 2), Nilor (Martinique 4) and Serville (Guyane 1).
There are 3 Corse Nationalists too.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: June 13, 2017, 12:54:49 pm
PSDB decided to stay in Temer's government. Many say that main reason behind it is that PSDB wants PMDB support in 2018 and PSDB fears that Aecio can lose PMDB's support in Senate Ethics Committee.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 11, 2017, 11:01:54 pm
Can so successful first round to LREM backfire on them in next Sunday? People can vote to refuse to give so much power to them. Or old political hates can be stronger?
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: June 08, 2017, 03:14:10 pm
Yesterday, former Speaker of Chamber of Deputies and former Minister of Tourism Henrique Eduardo Alves (PMDB-RN), one of top allies of Michel Temer, was arrested for charges of receiving bribes from building of World Cup Arena in Natal (RN) and for sharing a bribe account with his sucessor as speaker, the already jailed Eduardo Cunha. He'll join Cunha and Rodrigo Rocha Loures (boy who received a bribe bag from JBS) in jail. Things are going to be very ugly for Temer and his gang.
While that Temer is in troubles for lying about a flight going to a business forum (owned by São Paulo's mayor João Doria) in a plane owned by Joesley Batista, JBS owner who delated him. He said that he used a Air Force Plane, but flight reports showed that he went in Batista's plane and his wife received flowers from Batista.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Argentina Legislative Election 2017 on: June 06, 2017, 08:22:41 pm
Buenos Aires Province is by far the most important province voting in this election, as it gets 27% of all deputies voted in this election
Despite the Province's traditional Peronist leanings, it has recently turned into a closer district.

Senator candidates:

Frente para la Victoria:

-Cristina Kirchner
, the former president hasn't formally announced her intention to run, but it's for all purposes an open secret, and has been endorsed by several mayors who think she should be a "unity candidate" for the FPV and that the primaries should be avoided

-Florencio Randazzo, who is seen as one of the most honest and efficient ministers in Cristina's cabinet . He tried to run for President in 2017, but he was rejected by the majority of the FPV's politicians. He may be sharing the list with former President of the Chamber of Deputies and failed 2015 pre-candidate for governor Julian Dominguez His main endorsement is former Chief of cabinet
Alberto Fernández who recently distanced himself from Massa

No candidates so far as Lilita Carrió and Jorge Macri have rejected this candidacy, and Facundo Manes has been demoted to the first candidate in the deputy on Cambiemos' ballot

Frente para la Victoria+GEN
-Sergio Massa+Margarita Stolbizer
. An unusual alliance between Massa's Frente Renovador (a moderate populist party without s strong ideology) and Stolbizer (a progressing) and her allies

Candidates for Deputies:


We  need to remember that senatorial election rule is that 1st placed list gets 2 seats and 2nd most voted list gets 1 seat, independently of results.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: June 05, 2017, 10:10:21 pm

SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazilian media are reporting that the country's federal police have asked embattled President Michel Temer 84 questions related to an investigation of corruption allegations against him...

Temer is getting better than Lula that was ilegally conducted to police questioning without being asked first to go to police.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican Elections 2017-18 on: June 05, 2017, 09:43:01 pm
Which are the chances for Mexico adopting run-off system to national and subnational elections?
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 28, 2017, 05:09:16 pm
Temer lost the support of 4 more parties the parties are:

Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Podemos (Formerly PTN)
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS)

Together the 4 parties have 66 deputies.

These are pretty hilarious names for pro-Temer parties.
PTN and PHS are small "rent parties" that supports who pays better them. They grow a lot after 2016. In Brazil, many congressman go from large parties to small parties to control state sections to have control over coalitions and party funds. PPS is a joke socialist party (one congressman of them is the reporter of Retirement reform), while PSB became a bizarre thing during Campos era (ultraconservatives like Paulo Bornhausen and Heráclito Fortes are in, but they have a good progressive faction, like senators da Mata and Capiberibe).
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: May 28, 2017, 03:55:04 pm
Constituencies polls by Ifop

Eure, 1st
Le Maire (economy minister, former LR, now LREM): 48%
Delacour (FN): 20%
Desprès (FI): 16%
Dioukhané (LR): 7%

Second round
Le Maire: 76%
Delacour: 24%

Essonne, 1st
Valls (DVG): 30%
Amrani (FI): 26%
Oger (FN): 12%
Varin (LR): 12%

Second round
Valls: 50%
Amrani: 50%
It would be hilarious if Valls loses to someone from FI
Would Mélenchon running in this constituency be more smart for him? Not safe, but he served much time as senator for Essonne.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Formation of GreenRight terminated on: May 19, 2017, 08:15:08 pm
Informateur Schippers did not have any talks with party leaders today: instead, they had a "moment for self-reflection." D66 currently refuse to negotiate with the CU, the SP continue to refuse negotiating with the VVD and the PvdA continue to refuse to negotiate with anybody. Buma wants VVD-CDA-D66-SP to give it a try (even though he would obviously prefer CU), and this does seem like a less problematic option than one with GL as long as its leader has a Messiah complex, but according to Roemer, negotiating with the VVD "was a no, is a no and will remain a no." Most expect Pechtold to come around soon.

@Rogier: I will answer you later!
Would a CDA-GL-D66-SP viable with PVdD-CU, PvDA+plus one.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 18, 2017, 10:10:04 pm
The chances of this guy becoming President just shot up.

But ideally someone like Joaquim Barbosa will be selected.
This guy is the Commander of Brazilian Army, general Vilas Boas. But they will trying someone from justice. Marina Silva is openly courting members of justice system to get along her.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: May 17, 2017, 10:37:38 pm
Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

PS-PRG-EELV together form 9% which seems to low to get to second round in a meaningful number of seats.
Can all of this alliances out of party systems backfire hard in legislatives? LR, FN, FI and PS voters uniting against LREM candidates?
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 17, 2017, 10:09:25 pm
Breaking news: Michel Temer has been caught on tape asking JBS' CEO Joesley Batista to pay bribes to Eduardo Cunha to avoid a whistleblower agreement from Cunha.

This is the end of Michel Temer. I expect him to resign pretty soon after this.
JBS is world's largest meat processing group. They bought a lot of companies of meat and they mounted a large business company, including power plants, paper companies and . Aecio Neves, president of PSDB, was taped too, saying that we "need one person (to carry bribe money) that can be killed before doing a plea bargain". Bribe money to PSDB and PMDB were track backed and money was put in a company of senator Zezé Perrella (Aécio's ally).
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: May 08, 2017, 09:58:09 pm
11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.
How many triangulaires and quadrangulaires are estimed for legislative elections? If turnout is high, we can have even quinquangulaires.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up on: April 30, 2017, 12:23:58 pm
Would a Sentido Futuro, Evopoli and DC coalition possible by now? And would they have chances to get into runoff?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: April 30, 2017, 12:16:58 pm
I can see MLP-NDA alliance as a kind of Cold War between the two. NDA wants to be a light version of MLP, the one who can win, while she wants to remain as main leader of far-right and exposed him in a "corrupt bargain" situation.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Describe a Jospin 1995/Chirac 2002/Sarkozy 2007/Sarkozy 2012/Macron 2017 voter on: April 26, 2017, 11:20:56 pm
Max Gallo
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 42

Login with username, password and session length


Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines