Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2013, 08:51:53 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 30
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: May 17, 2013, 09:24:35 pm
Marina is getting signatures to get her party approved in evangelical churches.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Very Hypothetical: Tim Scott (R-SC) vs. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) on: May 11, 2013, 04:37:02 pm
Schweitzer would be a candidate that can be competitive in some Southern states. He can win Mississippi, Georgia and Arkansas against Scott. He can make a play for Dakotas too.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats: Should Pelosi be replaced? on: May 09, 2013, 06:46:56 pm
In my opinion, Pelosi should be replaced for a leader that can connect with blue collar, white and populist people. A party that replaces abortion and gun control for economic things. I'd like to recruit Schweitzer to try to run for MT-AL and as leader of Congressional Democrats. SC-1 could have been won with another leadership.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Paraguay 2013 on: May 01, 2013, 11:15:51 pm
Bordaberry was Uruguayan, but his Colorado party is somewhat opposite to Paraguayan Colorado Party. Uruguayan Colorado Party was representative of urban elites of Uruguay and his take-over of power was one of reasons of Paraguayan War. Their equivalent would be Liberal Party in Paraguay. National Party (Blancos) are more linked to Uruguayan landowners, but they had to appeal to left to be competitive against long time domination of colorados in Uruguayan politics. Pepe Mujica was member of National Party in his youth.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: May 01, 2013, 11:11:15 pm
batmacumba...You're good. Veja was a good magazine, but they radicalized as Lula became able to win election. I remember when Garotinho called PT of "partido da boquinha". Garotinho owes his election in 1998 because PT intervention to give support to him, because PSDB neutrality in run-off against César Maia (Cabral who was Legislative Assembly speaker allied with Garotinho and switched some time after to PMDB) and evangelical support. Brizola by 1998 wasn't so influential in Rio politics. To show that, he got only a 4th place in Rio mayoral election and a 6th place in 2002 senatorial election.
Roberto Marinho (Globo's owner) said after Collor's debacle that "We won't be able to elect one of us again". Then they propped FHC.
Enjoy your moqueca capixaba, batmacumba.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2012: Goodness Gracious, Great Balls of Fire! on: May 01, 2013, 07:05:56 pm
Dorgan wouldn't win against Hoeven even in a Democratic good year. I'd switch ND for KS, as Sebelius switch seats with Brownback. With GOP at WH in 2009, no healthcare reform, then no Tea Party. Rubio wouldn't run. Lincoln would survive against Halter and win. DeMint would have some difficulties. Colbert Busch would have some chances to win a senate seat in a 2010 anti-Republican enviroment. Would Ken Salazar still retire in 2010?
KBH wins Primary against Rick Perry and general election. In special election, Chet Edwards wins seat. Democrats would have a shot to win not only Presidency, as a 2/3 majority in Senate.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: May 01, 2013, 01:02:36 pm
It was because a threesold of 5%. Garotinho helped PSB nationally to get it. Garotinho split with PDT and PT when he supported undercover Luiz Paulo Conde (then PFL) reelection bid in 2000 against Brizola and Lieutenant Governor Benedita da Silva. In 2002, Garotinho was believed that he would stay at midrange and that brought a panic among PSB members. São Paulo (Jacó Bittar, former mayor of Campinas) and Bahia (Lidice da Mata, now senator) dropped out fearing a failure. But with Ciro's colapse and evangelical support, Garotinho got a late surge but received Serra's attacks at last 15 days of campaign and failed to get to runoff, although he was able to get Rosinha's victory at first round in Rio.
He split with PSB because he hoped to get a ministerial job in Lula's government like Ciro Gomes, but failed. He went to PMDB with promise of being presidential candidate in 2006. His demise in 2006 was brought by a pro-Lula PMDB wing that feared that a populist Garotinho campaign would take many voters from him in post-Mensalão wave, while PSDB and right-wings feared that Garotinho would take their place as one of main forces and becoming a Brazilian version of Kirchner and Chavez. Veja (most pro-PSDB magazine) published an attack towards Garotinho.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Breaking: Dutch Queen Beatrix to abdicate tonight? on: April 30, 2013, 08:25:27 pm
Who's most popular? Queen Máxima or Princess Mabel?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Pakistan 2013 on: April 30, 2013, 08:21:13 pm
I'm rooting for Khan. It's time to stop with Bhutto vs. Sharif politics.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013: The official thread on: April 28, 2013, 08:00:37 pm
I support Grillo as he's only candidate who promises to deliver a real change.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HI: Hanabusa going for Senate on: April 24, 2013, 04:38:44 pm
Seniority isn't a qualifying thing to be a Senator. Legitimate senior senator from Hawaii will be Senator Hirono.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Paraguay 2013 on: April 21, 2013, 10:09:06 pm
Will UNACE rejoin Colorado Party or keep as small party? Oviedo children would be willing to run in 2018.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: April 21, 2013, 09:59:59 pm
PSOL collected signatures and got registration in almost 2 years. Marina has to hurry up if she wants anything in 2014.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Paraguay 2013 on: April 21, 2013, 05:11:19 pm
How many of Alegre voters were Lugo supporters willing to stop Cartes? Maybe 1/3.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013: The official thread on: April 21, 2013, 01:15:50 am
Does Grillini candidate stand a chance in FVG?
And Vendola should be repented until now. By accepting an early coalition with PD, he destroyed his national political capital and transfered it to Grillo.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Austrian Parliamentary Election + State Elections + Army Draft Referendum on: April 21, 2013, 01:06:05 am
Who'll be most voted at Federal Election? BZÖ or KPÖ?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Iceland parliamentary election on: April 20, 2013, 06:21:25 pm
My dream coalition in Iceland would be PP-Left Green-Bright Future with outside support from Pirates.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013: The official thread on: April 20, 2013, 06:18:19 pm
A late-80s President accepting crossover support for reelection reminds me from a certain European country in 1982. And he getting support from long-time enemies.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Is there any way Saddam Hussein could've survived the Arab Spring? on: April 17, 2013, 09:38:56 pm
Saddam would play well with rivalries in Middle East. Turkey wouldn't let a strong Kurdish government to south of its border. Saudi Arabia has his problems with Iran and they would be neutral. If Shia rebels get enough support from Iran (weapons and well-trained soldiers), I can see Saddam getting some support even from some Gulf emirates and may be even from Israel.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013: The official thread on: April 17, 2013, 09:29:38 pm
I think that PD wouldn't support Bonino because Radical's posture in election. It will be a very fun election.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election on: April 15, 2013, 08:02:29 pm
Maduro is very weak. He almost lost Barinas (Chavez home province). He'll need to do many things to prevent a recall in 2016. In 2018, candidate should be someone linked to Chavez, like Adam Chavez or Jorge Arreaza.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: April 10, 2013, 04:39:07 pm
PC do B is very likely to endorse Dilma and supporting her would be vital for Flavio Dino's gubernatorial campaign in Maranhão, even she endorses Sarney's candidate.
Electoral Justice ordered a reapportionment of seats in Chamber. This will affect state legislatures too.
Until 12 congressmen: 3 x congressmen in state legislature (a state with 10 congressmen will have 30 state legislators)
More than 12 congressman: 3 x 12 + (state congressmen - 12). (Bahia have 39 congressmen and 63 state legislators).
Alagoas, Espirito Santo, Pernambuco, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul: -1
Paraíba and Piauí: -2
Amazonas and Santa Catarina: +1
Ceará and Minas Gerais: +2
Pará: +4
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: what congressional district fits the preceding poster the most on: April 10, 2013, 04:25:12 pm
CA 30
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: April 09, 2013, 07:54:37 pm
And supporting Campos in Rio would backfire badly as he was behind oil royalties take-over.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: April 08, 2013, 06:05:34 am
Collor will have the fight for his life against Governor Vilela (PSDB) in senatorial election. I think that running for governorship would be a better path for him.
In Rio, Campos can get support of former governor Garotinho (PR).
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 30


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.18 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines
Forums Directory