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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Paraguay 2013
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on: May 01, 2013, 11:15:51 pm
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Bordaberry was Uruguayan, but his Colorado party is somewhat opposite to Paraguayan Colorado Party. Uruguayan Colorado Party was representative of urban elites of Uruguay and his take-over of power was one of reasons of Paraguayan War. Their equivalent would be Liberal Party in Paraguay. National Party (Blancos) are more linked to Uruguayan landowners, but they had to appeal to left to be competitive against long time domination of colorados in Uruguayan politics. Pepe Mujica was member of National Party in his youth.
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election
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on: May 01, 2013, 11:11:15 pm
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batmacumba...You're good. Veja was a good magazine, but they radicalized as Lula became able to win election. I remember when Garotinho called PT of "partido da boquinha". Garotinho owes his election in 1998 because PT intervention to give support to him, because PSDB neutrality in run-off against César Maia (Cabral who was Legislative Assembly speaker allied with Garotinho and switched some time after to PMDB) and evangelical support. Brizola by 1998 wasn't so influential in Rio politics. To show that, he got only a 4th place in Rio mayoral election and a 6th place in 2002 senatorial election. Roberto Marinho (Globo's owner) said after Collor's debacle that "We won't be able to elect one of us again". Then they propped FHC. Enjoy your moqueca capixaba, batmacumba.
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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2012: Goodness Gracious, Great Balls of Fire!
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on: May 01, 2013, 07:05:56 pm
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Dorgan wouldn't win against Hoeven even in a Democratic good year. I'd switch ND for KS, as Sebelius switch seats with Brownback. With GOP at WH in 2009, no healthcare reform, then no Tea Party. Rubio wouldn't run. Lincoln would survive against Halter and win. DeMint would have some difficulties. Colbert Busch would have some chances to win a senate seat in a 2010 anti-Republican enviroment. Would Ken Salazar still retire in 2010? KBH wins Primary against Rick Perry and general election. In special election, Chet Edwards wins seat. Democrats would have a shot to win not only Presidency, as a 2/3 majority in Senate.
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election
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on: May 01, 2013, 01:02:36 pm
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It was because a threesold of 5%. Garotinho helped PSB nationally to get it. Garotinho split with PDT and PT when he supported undercover Luiz Paulo Conde (then PFL) reelection bid in 2000 against Brizola and Lieutenant Governor Benedita da Silva. In 2002, Garotinho was believed that he would stay at midrange and that brought a panic among PSB members. São Paulo (Jacó Bittar, former mayor of Campinas) and Bahia (Lidice da Mata, now senator) dropped out fearing a failure. But with Ciro's colapse and evangelical support, Garotinho got a late surge but received Serra's attacks at last 15 days of campaign and failed to get to runoff, although he was able to get Rosinha's victory at first round in Rio. He split with PSB because he hoped to get a ministerial job in Lula's government like Ciro Gomes, but failed. He went to PMDB with promise of being presidential candidate in 2006. His demise in 2006 was brought by a pro-Lula PMDB wing that feared that a populist Garotinho campaign would take many voters from him in post-Mensalão wave, while PSDB and right-wings feared that Garotinho would take their place as one of main forces and becoming a Brazilian version of Kirchner and Chavez. Veja (most pro-PSDB magazine) published an attack towards Garotinho.
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election
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on: April 10, 2013, 04:39:07 pm
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PC do B is very likely to endorse Dilma and supporting her would be vital for Flavio Dino's gubernatorial campaign in Maranhão, even she endorses Sarney's candidate. Electoral Justice ordered a reapportionment of seats in Chamber. This will affect state legislatures too. Until 12 congressmen: 3 x congressmen in state legislature (a state with 10 congressmen will have 30 state legislators) More than 12 congressman: 3 x 12 + (state congressmen - 12). (Bahia have 39 congressmen and 63 state legislators). Alagoas, Espirito Santo, Pernambuco, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul: -1 Paraíba and Piauí: -2 Amazonas and Santa Catarina: +1 Ceará and Minas Gerais: +2 Pará: +4
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