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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hungary By-Election, Tapolca on: April 13, 2015, 06:15:03 pm
Will Fidesz try to change FPTP? Or they fear that a French run-off system will scrap things for them?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 06:38:29 am
Why are people talking about Avramopoulos (ND EU Commissioner) as Tsipras' presidential choice?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton aides already talking about VP options on: January 27, 2015, 05:04:18 pm
Another thing that we can think is about of Hillary choosing another female, but young enough to be seen as VP. This can be Maggie Hassan, Heitkamp, Klobuchar, McCaskill or Baldwin would be options.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 03:41:48 pm
Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise. I'm sure a SYRIZA minority government would be fine for a few months, but what happens once they have to push their first controversial vote through parliament, or if a few MPs desert? If Tsipras wants to survive as PM, and actually accomplish something of value, he needs a coalition partner, and KKE isn't it. It is just a simple reality, and an election promise can't change that.  
I believe that many of KKE voters are ones of who want KKE not to be irrational opponent of Tsipras, but a left-wing check on his policies.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 02:07:10 pm
Epic fail DIMAR!
Who is Gklestsos?
And how Union of Centrists to get a large surge...
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Senators do you think will retire in 2016? on: January 14, 2015, 09:51:44 pm
Grassley will stay because he hopes to be PPT in 2021.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where should Hillary Clinton build her library? on: December 20, 2014, 05:01:42 am
Chelsea has a Masters from Columbia.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Who Governs Sweden? Swedish Early Election - 22 March 2015 on: December 11, 2014, 05:55:34 pm
 
my guess is that a lot of voters from V, MP and FI will be wandering of to S soon. SD will be the big winners of this election so their gamble with voting down the governments budget seems to have paid of for now.

How come? It could bring V in danger if true.
I remember Netherlands, where  VVD and PVDA polarized election enough to get  majority to do a great coalition.
Wouldn't be wise for one of Alliance parties to leave it and run independently?
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: November 12, 2014, 08:15:02 pm
Strange that Montebourg wasn't polled as PS, FG or Independent candidate.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: November 11, 2014, 07:52:54 pm
How did Juppé get so popular?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Should we make voting mandatory? on: November 08, 2014, 06:54:14 pm
Voting is mandatory in Brazil, but you can dodge it if you justify your absence only by showing at a poll station in other city than you vote. My mom vote in another city and justified her absence in Presidential run-off going to my poll station with a form that I downloaded in Electoral Justice. To justify after election day, you have only to show at a notary to pay a fine of R$ 3.50 (U$ 1.40) until 60 days. If you don't show for it, you'll get serious restrictions, like passport denying, no loans at state-owned bank, refused public jobs and studying at state-owned universities. This year abstention rate was 19.4% (highest since 1998 21.5%).
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democratic Bench in GA on: November 07, 2014, 04:40:38 pm
John Barrow is probably the only one who can pull off a successful statewide campaign. Maybe we could recruit Clark Howard??
Cantwell was defeated in House 1994 and returned to Senate in 2000. Barrow can comeback.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Harry Reid to run for Minority Leader on: November 05, 2014, 07:37:34 pm
A good option could be Reid leaving and putting someone as a transitional Democratic Leader who wouldn't do harm, like Markey or Cardin. Then, Democrats should put a new generation leader, like Gillibrand, Heinrich or Baldwin. Cory Booker wouldn't be good as he would seen as Barack Obama 2.0.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 26, 2014, 09:35:46 pm
This election seems to also be the victory for Datafolha.  Their last poll of 52-48 was pretty much on target.
I hope that they poll Bahia statewide election in 2018. IBOPE made horrible job there.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 26, 2014, 09:22:11 pm
What took place in Alagoas and Sergipe? Aecio got completely smashed there and lost double digit or near double digit swings from 2010.  Same for Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí.  All of them arefrom the same region of the Northeast.  Why is the Northeast so much more anti-PSDB than 2010 ?
In Alagoas, PSDB governor Vilela didn't ran for nothing and Renan Calheiros Jr. won governorship in 1st round. In Rio Grande do Norte, Serra had then elected-governor Rosalba Ciarlini's endorsement and Dilma had support from a weak incumbent, while now governor-elect Robinson Faria (PSD) and Henrique Eduardo Alves (PMDB) endorsed her. In Sergipe, governor-elect Jackson Barreto (PMDB) worked for Dilma and Mayor of Aracaju João Alves didn't put much strength. And Piaui elected Wellington Dias (PT) for a 3rd term. I believe that is because Northeast needs Federal government support, then with pro-Dilma governors, there are massive swings to her.
And Alagoas was Serra's only state in Lula's 2002 first victory.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014 on: October 26, 2014, 06:22:41 pm
Kingmaker is Samopomich, a social conservative party who have anti-separatist commander Semen Semechenko as number 2. Tymoshenko will support Yatsenyuk.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 26, 2014, 06:17:14 pm
With Pimentel as governor, PT can solidify hold in Minas getting more strength. With São Paulo's performance, local PSDB will try to reclaim back national PSDB control. Santa Catarina, Aécio's best state, have a pro-Dilma governor (Raimundo Colombo, PSD, former DEM) and suffred with violence's troubles. Now, PT has to recover Haddad's image in São Paulo. And I believe it, as Haddad will try to keep alliance with Maluf's PP and Kassab's PSD and with PMDB, as Skaf probably will leave it and Chalita is going to live in NYC, that will give a large advantadge in free-air TV time.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 26, 2014, 05:06:23 pm
50.99% Dilma
49.01% Aécio
95.35% counted
6.640.430 to count
Dilma's advantage of 1.990.030 votes...
I can project Dilma's victory now...
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Uruguay General Election, October 26, 2014 on: October 23, 2014, 06:59:52 pm
FA is paying for not passing torch to new generation. Unlike 4 years ago, Blancos were able to renew, with a photogenic candidate. If FA had put a guy in 50s or 40s, they would have that on bag.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 20, 2014, 05:41:08 am
Actually, Aecio was highly successful on rallying the older, center-left side of the party embodied by FHC, José Serra, Andrea Matarazzo, Barjas Negri, etc. In fact, I believe that, if Aecio is elected, some names from this faction will have key cabinet posts (Serra is a lock). He'll also explore younger names from this faction of the party, like yet another rising star, Floriano Pesaro.

Well, Aecio had to move toward centre-left in order to win the election.

Btw, who's Serra's Senate substitute?
Serra's substitute is veteran tucano congressman José Anibal, who had some clashes with Serra before. I think that Aécio believes that is better to keep Serra close than letting him to have his own side show on Senate.
Pesaro is a São Paulo's councilman who served in FHC government and got elected to Congress with Cardoso's endorsement at TV. He can serve in a social position of cabinet.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 13, 2014, 08:58:44 pm
IBOPE polled the Federal District for the local race and the national race. Interesting results:

Local government: R. Rollemberg (PSB) 60% x J. Frejat (PR) 40%
Presidential: Aécio 69% x Dilma 31%

In 2010 Dilma had 53% in the runoff against Serra, Serra had 47%, so if true this would be a 22% swing from the PT to the PSDB. In the 1st round Aecio had 36% there and Dilma 23%. Marina also had 36%, so it's clear Aecio is gaining a huge chunk of her votes there. If those numbers are true and remain steady, Aecio would be reducing the 8 million vote difference that separates him from Dilma by at least some 400 thousand votes. Considering the Federal District has just under 1.9 million voters, this would be a significant number.
This is result of Agnelo's heavy unpopularity. Only way of Dilma recovering is doing some undercover compromise with Roriz-Arruda machine where they give Dilma votes in their places in exchange of PT machine working for Frejat.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 06, 2014, 07:09:05 pm
In RS, two another main contenders of 2010 gubernatorial election failed to get into chamber (former senator José Fogaça and former governor Yeda Crusius). In ES, former mayor of Vitória, Luiz Paulo Velloso Lucas failed to get elected.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 04, 2014, 06:20:14 pm
Dilma had a massive surge after start of free TV airtime. Dilma got 55% in some polls, but after Erenice Guerra's scandal (Dilma's trusted right-hand at government)...
Breaking in my state:
Paulo Souto  DEM): 36%
Rui Costa (PT): 36%
Lidice (PSB): 4%
Another 3 candidates: 1% each

24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 03, 2014, 04:29:12 pm
Prediction
Dilma: 47.3%
Aécio: 25.3%
Marina: 22.8%
All of others: 4.6% (order: Luciana Genro, Everaldo, Eduardo Jorge, Fidelix, Zé Maria, Eymael, Iasi, Costa Pimenta)
My votes:
President: Dilma (PT)
Governor: Renata Mallet (PSTU)
Senator: Otto Alencar (PSD)
Federal legislator: Amauri Teixeira (PT)
State legislator: Angelo Almeida (PT)
If Brazil had alternate vote for president, I'd vote in that order:
1. Luciana Genro
2. Dilma Rousseff
3. Rui Costa Pimenta
4. Mauro Iasi
5. Zé Maria
6.Levy Fidelix (even if he's homophobic, I like his retoric against banks and populism)
7. Eduardo Jorge (my problem with him is running-mate Celia Sacramento who supports ACM Neto's gang in Bahia)
8. Eymael
9. Marina
10. Aécio
11. Everaldo (i don't like his neoliberal and social conservative rhetoric).
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 29, 2014, 08:37:18 pm
And is Left-SPD-AfD coalition viable?
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