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April 29, 2016, 04:50:28 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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26  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 15, 2016, 05:20:03 pm
Delcidio plea bargain was very cheap for him. Only a fine of R$ 1,500,000.00 (U$ 400,000.00). And he threw sh**ts at every side. Aécio Neves, Mayor Eduardo Paes and even deceased Bahia oligarch Antonio Carlos Magalhaes. And it's shameful that Zavascki didn't ask for Delcidio's Senate resignation.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 15, 2016, 04:43:08 pm
Quote
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico said Tuesday that his populist left-wing Smer party struck a deal with three other parties that would allow for the formation of a coaltion government, according to local media.

The coalition agreement includes the nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS) and two center-right parties, Most-Híd and Sieť. Fico’s Smer will remain the senior partner but the prime minister will have to deal with a heterogeneous and contradictory coalition.

http://www.politico.eu/article/robert-fico-nears-four-party-coalition-in-slovakia-election-deal/
An agreement to pacify EU. Get SNS, but Hungarians from Most-Híd.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 08:08:16 pm
Red-Green should come to their senses and go for coalitions with Left to give a perspective of change to Germans.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 06:19:23 pm
But East Germany is a very different thing of West Germany.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 06:02:23 pm
Looks that SA is set for Malawi coalition. But if Greens by someway get out, things can get interesting. Can AfD and Die Linke work together?
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 12:17:09 pm
Who are the Others in SA? FW, NDP?
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Guess the Democratic Challengers to a President Trump in 2020 on: March 12, 2016, 07:47:28 pm
Klobuchar
Heinrich
Booker
Baldwin
Duckworth
Bullock
Cuomo
Warren
Gillibrand
K. Harris
Cortez Masto
Hassan
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: March 12, 2016, 06:54:50 pm
I think PPK could surge actually. I don't know where you get that Barnechea has any momentum, though.
By polls in Spanish wikipedia. Latest poll from Datum:
MoE: +/- 2.8%
KF: 37%
PPK: 14%
Barnechea: 9%
Mendoza: 8%
Garcia: 7%
Toledo: 1%
Others: 6%
Spoiled: 6%
Undecided: 12%
PPK is in a clear 2nd, but he's unsafe. And Brazil problems are spilling on Peru.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: March 12, 2016, 01:04:00 am
Acuña was barred from election, as Julio Guzmán (young moderate hero) who was 2nd in polls. And government candidate Daniel Urresti is out too. Now, who is having momentum is Alfredo Barnechea, from traditional AP. He started political career in APRA, split with first Garcia government, supported Vargas Llosa and is in political comeback. Left-wing Verónika Mendoza is in a good position too.
Predictions for run-off scenarios:
KF vs. PPK - Leans KF
KF vs. García - Toss-up
KF vs. Barnechea - Likely Barnechea
KF vs. Mendoza - Likely KF
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which establishment candidate should drop out (Kasich should IMO) on: March 09, 2016, 04:40:24 pm
And Kasich stands a chance with winner take-all states. Cruz has a problem and probably won't gain any primary after Utah and Arizona until Nebraska. He won't have momentum.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET) on: March 08, 2016, 10:47:55 pm
With the votes still to count, Hillary can close gap by Wayne, but she'll be trashed outside Detroit. Then I believe that this will be Iowa in reverse.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 08, 2016, 10:08:59 pm
Who do you think will have a government first? Spain or Ireland? I have no idea at this point.
Ireland... FF+SF have many roads to win...
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would have Warren done in the South? on: March 08, 2016, 09:55:57 pm
Just as bad. To neutralize Hillary Southern crush, a black candidate would be needed, like Deval Patrick.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz set to unveil 4 senate endorsements on: March 07, 2016, 07:57:33 pm
Lee, Tills, Cornyn and Paul
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio's big win in PR allow him to surge in the next set of primaries? on: March 06, 2016, 10:51:46 pm
I think that his victory will consolidate Trump as the winner in Michigan as voters will be between the other 3 to be the anti-Trump.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biggest Super Tuesday surprises? on: March 06, 2016, 09:11:21 pm
Clinton winning MA wasn't a surprise. In 2008, Obama had Kerry, Patrick and Ted Kennedy and he lost by 15 points.
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney: it's "absurd" I would say no to the nomination, if drafted on: March 06, 2016, 04:36:46 pm
If they try to cheat nomination out of Trump or Cruz, anti-establishment people will make Chicago' 68 looks a child game.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 06, 2016, 01:47:38 pm
With KDH out, all talk of a center-right government has died down. There is a fairly clear coalition possible with Smer, SNS and Sme Rodina, the question is whether Fico will want it. But any other combination strikes me as impossible.
Smer + Sme Rodina + SNS is not enough, they have 75/150. They need another party for that. Smer + Most-Hid + Sme Rodina + #Siet seems more of an option then.
Not possible. Smer is anti-Hungarian. I think that OL'ANO-NOVA is a very likely coalition partner for Smer. They left SaS due to immigration controversies. Then any other combination would be viable.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) on: March 05, 2016, 11:42:16 pm
Question is that Tuesday primaries and caucus are going to be very Cruz friendly. Cruz stands a chance to win Mississippi and Idaho and that can influence Hawaii to go for him. Then Rubio hopes of a win before Florida are Puerto Rico tomorrow and Washington DC at next Saturday. Very weak places to get enough momentum to win March 15.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 05, 2016, 11:19:24 pm
90% in
Smer: 50
SaS: 20
OL'ANO-NOVA: 19
SNS: 15
LSNS: 14
Most-Híd: 11
SME-Rodina: 11
#Siet: 9
KDH at 4.87% and SMK at 4.5%
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 05, 2016, 10:27:08 pm
79% in
Smer: 50
SaS: 19
OL'ANO-NOVA: 18
SNS: 15
LSNS: 14
Most-Híd: 11
SME-Rodina: 11
#Siet: 9
KDH with 4.87% and SMK with 4.59%
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 05, 2016, 09:25:19 pm
42% in
Seats needed to a majority: 76
Smer: 48
SaS: 17
O'LANO-NOVA: 17
SNS: 15
LSNS: 14
SME-Rodina: 11
MOST-Híd: 10
#SIET: 9
KDH: 8
58% in, same seat map, except KDH is replaced by SMK...
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 05, 2016, 08:55:47 pm
42% in
Seats needed to a majority: 76
Smer: 48
SaS: 17
O'LANO-NOVA: 17
SNS: 15
LSNS: 14
SME-Rodina: 11
MOST-Híd: 10
#SIET: 9
KDH: 8
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @4pm ET?) on: March 05, 2016, 08:41:48 pm
Where are the results for Kansas?
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) on: March 05, 2016, 07:02:49 pm
Rubio is apparently tightening the race in Florida, Kasich is apparently ahead in Michigan, Cruz is overperforming tonight. If this is all true, wth happened to Trump?

1) People realized he may actually win if they do nothing

2) His soft support decided he was a joke and not an acceptable option and scattered
Rubio is apparently tightening the race in Florida, Kasich is apparently ahead in Michigan, Cruz is overperforming tonight. If this is all true, wth happened to Trump?
Any chance of a Hillary Operation Chaos v. 2016? Cruz is the most unelectable candidate of pack.

1) People realized he may actually win if they do nothing

2) His soft support decided he was a joke and not an acceptable option and scattered
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