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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 19, 2016, 08:32:18 pm
What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

That's exactly what investors are thinking. The thing is, they believe whoever takes office if/when Dilma is out will NOT run for reelection in 2018, so they believe whoever takes office would be willing to go through unpopular austerity measures to heal Brazil's fiscal policy.

Remember, there's even a chance that both Dilma AND Temer could fall in a few months. If this happens after December 31st 2016, then an indirect election would be triggered in an unicameral session of the Congress. Then, the Congress would probably handpick an "elder statesman" who wouldn't run for reelection in 2018 and who would be willing to go through all necessary measures to repair Brazil's economy. In fact, I've already heard that Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS) is a name being ventilated for this scenario. Jobim is a former Supreme Court Justice that was also on FHC's, Lula's and Dilma's cabinet. He'd probably tick all the necessary boxes for the job.

What measures would those be?

Immediately:

1 - reducing the debt by reducing unnecessary spending, reducing the number of cabinet positions and reducing the number of federal public servants,
2 - reforming the Constitution to reduce mandatory spending (Brazil has a bizarre public spending system where about 90% of all public spending is mandatory and cannot be blocked during a situation of crisis),
3 - cutting down absurd regulations and interventions created by Dilma that made investors flee the country.

With those 3 measures we'd be able to restore confidence and a balanced budget by 2018 IMO. Those should also be enough to bring back the inflation to its targeted rate of 4,5%. On the long term, though, more reforms would be needed, like:

4 - Welfare/pensions reform (the toughest one due to the political implications of this, this is probably the most important one, as Brazil's welfare system has a hole of over 100 billion reais)
5 - Tax reform (very tricky because there's a huge war between the federal government, states governments and local governments about this one)
6 - Government procurement reform (vital to cut down the corruption on the public service)
7 - Privatizations (Brazil has over 100 state owned companies, some of them running huge deficits).
Problem is following:
1 - We can reduce debt, but not cutting public services. we can make better use of technology, create better procedures, but not at cost of a public service.
2 - Mandatory spending is a thing that insures that money will go to things that are needed. Things that we can question is quality of expenses. And systems of control failures.
3 - Dilma made this attempt when things were looking good. Energy reform became a failure after water crisis (Brazilian system is made of water-moved power plant)
4 - Welfare reform is needed, but a human welfare reform, that doesn't cut acquired rights. One example. Rural benefits (not Bolsa Familia) are very important means of giving resources to survival in poorer regions. But I don't support military benefits for single daughters who lives as common-law wives or widow benefits for younger wives with a large age gap with their husbands. We need to recognize a system good for a contemporary world.
5 - Tax reform is hardest duty. Nobody will do a tax reform in a federative country that has one state with 20% of people (São Paulo). Small reforms would be viable.
6 - Procurement reform is a good way. Have more independent control procedures, more citizenship acting than conflicts. People doesn't know how things function and then corrupts can act free. And even Audit Court is having problems in Lava Jato.
7 - Sell Petrobras, Eletrobras, BB, Caixa, and etcetera. And then do what? Become hostages of oligopolies, financial markets, stock exchanges. Phone companies were sold, but they are with most problems with Justice. Government is with part of blame, but I doubt that this will change with PSDB.

Free market won't solve Brazilian problems alone, but D-E-M-O-C-R-A-C-Y is best solution. Political reforms will help more to fight corruption than illegal wiretappings, political gossips, censorship of thinking and pro-business reforms. This coup is a coup of corrupts wanting to survive.
27  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: guido westerwelle is dead on: March 19, 2016, 01:22:23 am
R.I.P. to most unpopular Vizekanzler. Biggest mistake to not go traffic light in 2005.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Jon Huntsman accuses Mitt Romney of CORRUPTION in Cruz endorsement on: March 18, 2016, 10:20:46 pm
Two things that look suspicious:
Are Romney and Leavitt working to give TRUMP an embarassing 3rd place in UT than a Cruz landslide? Or they are working already to a so brokered convention that will enforce Romney as candidate. Or they know that TRUMP nomination is the only way for GOP to victory...
And other question: What's the reason that Mormon establishment loves more MI-MA Romney than  UT Huntsman? Only because Obama ambassadorship?
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Millennials would flock to Clinton in Hillary v. Trump GE on: March 18, 2016, 08:32:21 pm
I don't think that. Millenials in multicultural regions can break for Hillary, but Trump anti-establishment populism can attract some of them.
30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SCOTUS nominee expected as early as this morning EDIT: looks like it's Garland on: March 16, 2016, 04:53:40 pm
They need to get him through the Judiciary Committee first.



The US Senate's Judiciary Committee, which Justice Garland will need a majority of to even go before the Senate Floor:

 Republicans (11)
•Chuck Grassley, Iowa, Chair
•Orrin Hatch, Utah
•Jeff Sessions, Alabama
•Lindsey Graham, South Carolina
•John Cornyn, Texas
•Mike Lee, Utah
•Ted Cruz, Texas
•Jeff Flake, Arizona
•David Vitter, Louisiana
•David Perdue, Georgia
•Thom Tillis, North Carolina

Democrats (9)
•Patrick Leahy, Vermont, Ranking Member
•Dianne Feinstein, California
•Chuck Schumer, New York
•Dick Durbin, Illinois
•Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island
•Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota
•Al Franken, Minnesota
•Chris Coons, Delaware
•Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut


So we need at least 2 of those Republicans to vote to proceed to the Senate Floor.

Grassley, Graham, Hatch, Flake, and Cornyn are the ones I would work on in that order.

Not gonna happen.

Then you'll have only yourselves to blame when Pam Karlan or Goodwin Liu is confirmed by the Dem senate this time next year after Trump loses to Clinton 57/41.  And you can bet Ginsburg will retire next June, too.

Nope. We'll be celebrating the confirmation of Ted Cruz/Mike Lee by president Trump/Cruz

*As much as I despise Trump I do think he's astute enough to nominate Cruz*

I think your grip on reality has been warped by a bit too much Alex Jones.

My grip on on reality is quite firm. Haven't listened to Alex Jones in some time.
David Vitter is a walking dead... Buy his vote for a judgeship or Ambassadorship after he leaves Senate. Graham too.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET) on: March 15, 2016, 11:15:49 pm
Can 2nd placed in Missouri ask for recount?
32  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bad results for TRUMP tonight. How does he win? on: March 15, 2016, 09:53:37 pm
Early predictions that Trump could not possibly win the nomination may turn out to be right.  But I never thought it would happen like this, with Trump leading in delegates but possibly falling short of a majority.  I expected Bush or Rubio to beat him easily in the primaries.
It is possible the establishment is in total control and we don't know it.  We think Trump is winning but maybe he never had a shot.

Ninja establishment delegates
33  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bad results for TRUMP tonight. How does he win? on: March 15, 2016, 09:34:27 pm
Cruz will lose a lot of momentum by April. He should focus in Wisconsin to stay somewhat relevant. April will be a Trump vs. Kasich month. Then, if he doesn't win anything in May (IN, NE, WV, OR and WA), he won't be able to fight in The Last Tuesday.
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What the HELL happened in Ohio? on: March 15, 2016, 09:16:25 pm
Bernie took OH for grant and threw resources to NC and IL...
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Barry Goldwater/ Bernie Sanders voter on: March 15, 2016, 06:57:21 pm
Old Southern Dixiecrat who hates Civil Rights, but hate much more Republican economic and foreign policy.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 15, 2016, 05:46:54 pm
Would Kretschmann be a good candidate for Chancellor for a common front Greens/SPD to defeat Merkel?
37  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 15, 2016, 05:20:03 pm
Delcidio plea bargain was very cheap for him. Only a fine of R$ 1,500,000.00 (U$ 400,000.00). And he threw sh**ts at every side. Aécio Neves, Mayor Eduardo Paes and even deceased Bahia oligarch Antonio Carlos Magalhaes. And it's shameful that Zavascki didn't ask for Delcidio's Senate resignation.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 15, 2016, 04:43:08 pm
Quote
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico said Tuesday that his populist left-wing Smer party struck a deal with three other parties that would allow for the formation of a coaltion government, according to local media.

The coalition agreement includes the nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS) and two center-right parties, Most-Híd and Sieť. Fico’s Smer will remain the senior partner but the prime minister will have to deal with a heterogeneous and contradictory coalition.

http://www.politico.eu/article/robert-fico-nears-four-party-coalition-in-slovakia-election-deal/
An agreement to pacify EU. Get SNS, but Hungarians from Most-Híd.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 08:08:16 pm
Red-Green should come to their senses and go for coalitions with Left to give a perspective of change to Germans.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 06:19:23 pm
But East Germany is a very different thing of West Germany.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 06:02:23 pm
Looks that SA is set for Malawi coalition. But if Greens by someway get out, things can get interesting. Can AfD and Die Linke work together?
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 12:17:09 pm
Who are the Others in SA? FW, NDP?
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Guess the Democratic Challengers to a President Trump in 2020 on: March 12, 2016, 07:47:28 pm
Klobuchar
Heinrich
Booker
Baldwin
Duckworth
Bullock
Cuomo
Warren
Gillibrand
K. Harris
Cortez Masto
Hassan
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: March 12, 2016, 06:54:50 pm
I think PPK could surge actually. I don't know where you get that Barnechea has any momentum, though.
By polls in Spanish wikipedia. Latest poll from Datum:
MoE: +/- 2.8%
KF: 37%
PPK: 14%
Barnechea: 9%
Mendoza: 8%
Garcia: 7%
Toledo: 1%
Others: 6%
Spoiled: 6%
Undecided: 12%
PPK is in a clear 2nd, but he's unsafe. And Brazil problems are spilling on Peru.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: March 12, 2016, 01:04:00 am
Acuña was barred from election, as Julio Guzmán (young moderate hero) who was 2nd in polls. And government candidate Daniel Urresti is out too. Now, who is having momentum is Alfredo Barnechea, from traditional AP. He started political career in APRA, split with first Garcia government, supported Vargas Llosa and is in political comeback. Left-wing Verónika Mendoza is in a good position too.
Predictions for run-off scenarios:
KF vs. PPK - Leans KF
KF vs. García - Toss-up
KF vs. Barnechea - Likely Barnechea
KF vs. Mendoza - Likely KF
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which establishment candidate should drop out (Kasich should IMO) on: March 09, 2016, 04:40:24 pm
And Kasich stands a chance with winner take-all states. Cruz has a problem and probably won't gain any primary after Utah and Arizona until Nebraska. He won't have momentum.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET) on: March 08, 2016, 10:47:55 pm
With the votes still to count, Hillary can close gap by Wayne, but she'll be trashed outside Detroit. Then I believe that this will be Iowa in reverse.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 08, 2016, 10:08:59 pm
Who do you think will have a government first? Spain or Ireland? I have no idea at this point.
Ireland... FF+SF have many roads to win...
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would have Warren done in the South? on: March 08, 2016, 09:55:57 pm
Just as bad. To neutralize Hillary Southern crush, a black candidate would be needed, like Deval Patrick.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz set to unveil 4 senate endorsements on: March 07, 2016, 07:57:33 pm
Lee, Tills, Cornyn and Paul
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