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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SCOTUS nominee expected as early as this morning EDIT: looks like it's Garland on: March 16, 2016, 04:53:40 pm
They need to get him through the Judiciary Committee first.



The US Senate's Judiciary Committee, which Justice Garland will need a majority of to even go before the Senate Floor:

 Republicans (11)
•Chuck Grassley, Iowa, Chair
•Orrin Hatch, Utah
•Jeff Sessions, Alabama
•Lindsey Graham, South Carolina
•John Cornyn, Texas
•Mike Lee, Utah
•Ted Cruz, Texas
•Jeff Flake, Arizona
•David Vitter, Louisiana
•David Perdue, Georgia
•Thom Tillis, North Carolina

Democrats (9)
•Patrick Leahy, Vermont, Ranking Member
•Dianne Feinstein, California
•Chuck Schumer, New York
•Dick Durbin, Illinois
•Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island
•Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota
•Al Franken, Minnesota
•Chris Coons, Delaware
•Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut


So we need at least 2 of those Republicans to vote to proceed to the Senate Floor.

Grassley, Graham, Hatch, Flake, and Cornyn are the ones I would work on in that order.

Not gonna happen.

Then you'll have only yourselves to blame when Pam Karlan or Goodwin Liu is confirmed by the Dem senate this time next year after Trump loses to Clinton 57/41.  And you can bet Ginsburg will retire next June, too.

Nope. We'll be celebrating the confirmation of Ted Cruz/Mike Lee by president Trump/Cruz

*As much as I despise Trump I do think he's astute enough to nominate Cruz*

I think your grip on reality has been warped by a bit too much Alex Jones.

My grip on on reality is quite firm. Haven't listened to Alex Jones in some time.
David Vitter is a walking dead... Buy his vote for a judgeship or Ambassadorship after he leaves Senate. Graham too.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET) on: March 15, 2016, 11:15:49 pm
Can 2nd placed in Missouri ask for recount?
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bad results for TRUMP tonight. How does he win? on: March 15, 2016, 09:53:37 pm
Early predictions that Trump could not possibly win the nomination may turn out to be right.  But I never thought it would happen like this, with Trump leading in delegates but possibly falling short of a majority.  I expected Bush or Rubio to beat him easily in the primaries.
It is possible the establishment is in total control and we don't know it.  We think Trump is winning but maybe he never had a shot.

Ninja establishment delegates
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bad results for TRUMP tonight. How does he win? on: March 15, 2016, 09:34:27 pm
Cruz will lose a lot of momentum by April. He should focus in Wisconsin to stay somewhat relevant. April will be a Trump vs. Kasich month. Then, if he doesn't win anything in May (IN, NE, WV, OR and WA), he won't be able to fight in The Last Tuesday.
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What the HELL happened in Ohio? on: March 15, 2016, 09:16:25 pm
Bernie took OH for grant and threw resources to NC and IL...
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Barry Goldwater/ Bernie Sanders voter on: March 15, 2016, 06:57:21 pm
Old Southern Dixiecrat who hates Civil Rights, but hate much more Republican economic and foreign policy.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 15, 2016, 05:46:54 pm
Would Kretschmann be a good candidate for Chancellor for a common front Greens/SPD to defeat Merkel?
33  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: March 15, 2016, 05:20:03 pm
Delcidio plea bargain was very cheap for him. Only a fine of R$ 1,500,000.00 (U$ 400,000.00). And he threw sh**ts at every side. Aécio Neves, Mayor Eduardo Paes and even deceased Bahia oligarch Antonio Carlos Magalhaes. And it's shameful that Zavascki didn't ask for Delcidio's Senate resignation.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 15, 2016, 04:43:08 pm
Quote
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico said Tuesday that his populist left-wing Smer party struck a deal with three other parties that would allow for the formation of a coaltion government, according to local media.

The coalition agreement includes the nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS) and two center-right parties, Most-Híd and Sieť. Fico’s Smer will remain the senior partner but the prime minister will have to deal with a heterogeneous and contradictory coalition.

http://www.politico.eu/article/robert-fico-nears-four-party-coalition-in-slovakia-election-deal/
An agreement to pacify EU. Get SNS, but Hungarians from Most-Híd.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 08:08:16 pm
Red-Green should come to their senses and go for coalitions with Left to give a perspective of change to Germans.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 06:19:23 pm
But East Germany is a very different thing of West Germany.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 06:02:23 pm
Looks that SA is set for Malawi coalition. But if Greens by someway get out, things can get interesting. Can AfD and Die Linke work together?
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 12:17:09 pm
Who are the Others in SA? FW, NDP?
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Guess the Democratic Challengers to a President Trump in 2020 on: March 12, 2016, 07:47:28 pm
Klobuchar
Heinrich
Booker
Baldwin
Duckworth
Bullock
Cuomo
Warren
Gillibrand
K. Harris
Cortez Masto
Hassan
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: March 12, 2016, 06:54:50 pm
I think PPK could surge actually. I don't know where you get that Barnechea has any momentum, though.
By polls in Spanish wikipedia. Latest poll from Datum:
MoE: +/- 2.8%
KF: 37%
PPK: 14%
Barnechea: 9%
Mendoza: 8%
Garcia: 7%
Toledo: 1%
Others: 6%
Spoiled: 6%
Undecided: 12%
PPK is in a clear 2nd, but he's unsafe. And Brazil problems are spilling on Peru.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election – April 10, 2016 on: March 12, 2016, 01:04:00 am
Acuña was barred from election, as Julio Guzmán (young moderate hero) who was 2nd in polls. And government candidate Daniel Urresti is out too. Now, who is having momentum is Alfredo Barnechea, from traditional AP. He started political career in APRA, split with first Garcia government, supported Vargas Llosa and is in political comeback. Left-wing Verónika Mendoza is in a good position too.
Predictions for run-off scenarios:
KF vs. PPK - Leans KF
KF vs. García - Toss-up
KF vs. Barnechea - Likely Barnechea
KF vs. Mendoza - Likely KF
42  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which establishment candidate should drop out (Kasich should IMO) on: March 09, 2016, 04:40:24 pm
And Kasich stands a chance with winner take-all states. Cruz has a problem and probably won't gain any primary after Utah and Arizona until Nebraska. He won't have momentum.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET) on: March 08, 2016, 10:47:55 pm
With the votes still to count, Hillary can close gap by Wayne, but she'll be trashed outside Detroit. Then I believe that this will be Iowa in reverse.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016 on: March 08, 2016, 10:08:59 pm
Who do you think will have a government first? Spain or Ireland? I have no idea at this point.
Ireland... FF+SF have many roads to win...
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would have Warren done in the South? on: March 08, 2016, 09:55:57 pm
Just as bad. To neutralize Hillary Southern crush, a black candidate would be needed, like Deval Patrick.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz set to unveil 4 senate endorsements on: March 07, 2016, 07:57:33 pm
Lee, Tills, Cornyn and Paul
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Rubio's big win in PR allow him to surge in the next set of primaries? on: March 06, 2016, 10:51:46 pm
I think that his victory will consolidate Trump as the winner in Michigan as voters will be between the other 3 to be the anti-Trump.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biggest Super Tuesday surprises? on: March 06, 2016, 09:11:21 pm
Clinton winning MA wasn't a surprise. In 2008, Obama had Kerry, Patrick and Ted Kennedy and he lost by 15 points.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney: it's "absurd" I would say no to the nomination, if drafted on: March 06, 2016, 04:36:46 pm
If they try to cheat nomination out of Trump or Cruz, anti-establishment people will make Chicago' 68 looks a child game.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 Slovakia General Election, March on: March 06, 2016, 01:47:38 pm
With KDH out, all talk of a center-right government has died down. There is a fairly clear coalition possible with Smer, SNS and Sme Rodina, the question is whether Fico will want it. But any other combination strikes me as impossible.
Smer + Sme Rodina + SNS is not enough, they have 75/150. They need another party for that. Smer + Most-Hid + Sme Rodina + #Siet seems more of an option then.
Not possible. Smer is anti-Hungarian. I think that OL'ANO-NOVA is a very likely coalition partner for Smer. They left SaS due to immigration controversies. Then any other combination would be viable.
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