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26  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine on: February 04, 2014, 10:14:03 pm
In presidential election, opposition would go with a candidate with legal issues, Timoshenko (in prison), Klitschko (for living abroad) or go with a most safe option, like Yatseniuk? Can Tyahnybok upset going into run-off and cause a Yanukovich victory in a reverse 1998.
27  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Germany Considering a More Muscular Foreign Policy on: February 04, 2014, 07:20:07 pm
All of question is Russian gas. Germany and EU couldn't piss off Putin because he holds the tap.
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Mabus wins reelection as Mississippi Governor in 1991 on: February 01, 2014, 05:51:12 pm
May Mabus goes to a cabinet position in Clinton 2 (Attorney General or Secretary of Defense), then he waits in 2000 and runs for Presidency in 2004, although he fails to get steam, as he fails to win in Iowa. In 2006, national climate leads Mabus to run against Lott in a hot contest that he wins by a small margin.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: South Africa 2014 on: January 31, 2014, 06:12:33 pm
Agang leader Mamphela Ramphele will be the DA's presidential candidate and the party will be merging into the DA

http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-28-agang-sa-da-merge-with-ramphele-as-presidential-candidate

Are the Agang voters (who I understand are a very small number of middle-class blacks, maybe 1-3% of the vote) likely to follow Ramphele into the DA? Or will they vote for someone else, or scatter?
Most important question is if Whites will support her or go to another alternative. Freedom Front can be weakened, as they accepted to support ANC.
And what if ANC loses majority, could South Africa see a repeat of Ireland 1948, with another parties, DA, COPE and even Malema's party joining to government?
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Reid to vulnerable Dems: Run with Obama on: January 29, 2014, 05:36:14 pm
Black turnout, stupid. If Landrieu, Pryor, Hagan, Peters and Nunn throw Obama under bus, black will status at home in election day.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1988 gore/clinton vs. bush/quayle on: January 22, 2014, 05:10:36 am
1988 Gore could do a bigger damage than shown. He was seen as Southern Kennedy and he could fight even for Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma. He'd be a nice candidate for the Plains too due to Farming crisis.
32  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: January 12, 2014, 06:12:09 pm
This have smell of suicide attempt by Mme. Flanby.
33  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ariel Sharon's health deteriorates on: January 11, 2014, 04:30:57 pm
One of best what-ifs to be written would be how a Sharon PM would react to a Hamas government. RIP for his acts on last months of life.
34  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Coup and/or Civil War believed to be imminent. on: January 09, 2014, 08:28:56 pm
And would Reds have military assets to keep waging a Civil War against an Army controlled by yellows? Thaksin was a policeman and must have a support between low-ranked people in Army. Thailand's border countries are Myanmar, Cambodja, Laos and Thailand? How would them act in Civil War? Crown Prince is known for Thaksin's links and he's very controversial. King Rama could be fearing to take a position as Royal Family can end being deposed in a Nepal way.
35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Reid: 8 more years as leader on: December 18, 2013, 06:31:35 pm
Reid as leader would be better than Schumer. Democrats need a leader who isn't toxic for other Democrats.
36  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Nelson Mandela has died on: December 09, 2013, 06:07:42 pm
It appears Obama, Dubya, and Bubba are all jumping on Air Force One to go to South Africa.

I can understand why Aitch Dubya isn't going, but what about Carter?  I didn't think he was suffering from any serious health problems yet.
In Brazil, Lula and Dilma plus FHC, Collor and Sarney will go to Mandela's funeral.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2014 Brazil Election on: December 02, 2013, 05:25:58 pm
Governor of Sergipe Marcelo Deda, 53, died today due to a digestive cancer in Sao Paulo. He was serving his 2nd term, but he was out of office since May. He served in State Legislature, Chamber of Deputies (as PT caucus leader) and as Mayor of Aracaju (2001-06). He'll be replaced by Lieutenant Governor Jackson Barreto (PMDB).
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Honduras presidential and legislative elections 2013 on: November 25, 2013, 02:04:00 am
Nasralla acted as spoiler, taking down Xiomara's chances.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here! on: November 22, 2013, 11:51:00 pm
In 8th Senatorial candidates, top candidates Soledad Alvear and Laurence Golborne both got defeated.
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Separate Elections for POTUS and VP on: November 22, 2013, 08:18:34 pm
Bentsen could have won against Quayle. Texas would go for him, like some Southern states and Quayle gafes would cost his votes.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2013/2014: Waiting for the Election... on: November 16, 2013, 06:18:56 pm
Alfano could be more trustful for PD establishment than members of own party. If a majority of PD caucus want, government can survive until 2018. Government could be ended if Renzi, after winning leadership, gets control of caucus and a poll advantadge that makes safe to go for country. Alfano will heir control of Monti coalition and he'll keep them until bitter end.
42  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What is Peronism? on: November 09, 2013, 01:32:18 pm
Frondizi's MID (Movimiento de Integracion y Desarrollo, Movement for Integration and Development), party that he formed after disagreements with UCRI, supported Campora and Peron in 70's. They were very strong in very distant provinces, like Formosa, Misiones and Santa Cruz. Kirchner got his first mayoral election with their support. Magnetto (Clarin's strongman) was one of their members, linked to Rogelio Frigerio, whose grandson is PRO'S member.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: November 09, 2013, 01:18:31 pm
Excluding Jobbik can be a strategy to attract parties from countries where Hungarians aren't popular, like Romania and Slovakia. They don't want to see a repeat of ITS colapse.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MS-04: Gene Taylor considers a comeback...as a Republican on: October 31, 2013, 05:35:54 pm
Bobby Bright would be an interesting candidate for Alabama governorship. If GOP continues sucking, I think that even Taylor can get a comeback. He wouldn't be safe, but as swing vote in House, he could be influential.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Argentina 2013: Legislative Election, Primaries and assorted maps on: October 29, 2013, 05:01:09 pm
UNEN is a Buenos Aires' City coalition of UCR, CC (Carrió), PS (Solanas) and kirchnerist dissidents. Binner's PS is very irrelevant in Buenos Aires (city and province).
And I want to congratulate Argentinian people as its Supreme Court accepted constitutionality of Broadcasting Law. Clarin Miente!.
With constitutionality, Broadcasting Czar Martin Sabbatella gain strength in government. He can be a good candidate for Vice President or for Buenos Aires' governorship.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Argentina 2013: Legislative Election, Primaries and assorted maps on: October 28, 2013, 06:37:55 pm
Uribarri would be a candidate to go if Kirchnerism wants to show image as populist, folksy, common-man campaign. He could do well at ''conurbano'' and at countryside.
Capitanich and Urtubey would be candidates to show turn to a moderate way against Massa's image.
FpV's problem is that Scioli still is very powerful to be refused as presidential candidate. He can maneuver into conurbano mayors and control a powerful machine. But Buenos Aires' governorship isn't good to get Presidency. Cafiero lost to Menem in Peronist primaries (1989), Duhalde lost (1999) and Ruckauf left boat to save his chances in 2003.
I still think that Macri wouldn't be able to win presidency. He would be tied to neoliberalism and some of his regional good results could be credited to local candidates and support from Peronist dissidentes.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Czech parliamentary election 2013 on: October 26, 2013, 02:26:28 pm
ODS would be very toxic as coalition partner. ANO-TOP09-KDU/CSL-Usvit would have majority by 1 seat. It would be a very unstable government, with many clashes of ego.
Paroubek got epic fail (he got less than half of monarchist' votes).
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Czech parliamentary election 2013 on: October 26, 2013, 12:37:55 pm
Then, I think that great coalition between CSSD and ANO is most likely outcome, compromising with another parties, although I think that KDU would be a most reliable coalition partner.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Brian Schweitzer Considering 2016 Run on: October 22, 2013, 04:28:48 am
Schweitzer running for House would be interesting. Democrats need Montana seat to easy path towards majority.
50  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel opinion poll thread on: October 18, 2013, 10:24:48 pm
Why is Lapid so unpopular? Is it because of his coalition with Bibi, or a different reason?

It's a tradition for Centrist parties to rise and fall quickly, so this is normal. Add to that the fact that he is finance minister, which means that you're the face of any tax hikes or spending cuts.
And you're forgetting that Orthodox Jews hate him for being out of government.
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