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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Poll for Democrats on: November 11, 2016, 09:26:25 pm
1. Bernie
2. Libby
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Louisiana Poll - Times-Picayune/Lucid: Trump +3 on: November 02, 2016, 09:17:23 pm
Splendid pickle!
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GWU Battleground Poll (National): Clinton +8 on: October 17, 2016, 07:41:41 am
White: 47/38 Trump
Black: 87/4 Clinton
Hispanic: 59/26 Clinton (Clinton's number will be higher - not sure if they had Spanish speakers)
Other: 52/29 Clinton
 
Men: 44/39 Trump
Women: 54/36 Clinton

White college grads: 45/40 Clinton
Non white college grads: 70/22 Clinton
White non college: 57/29 Trump
Non white non college: 72/11 Clinton

Clinton may be leading or tied in GA with these numbers.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Emerson: Clinton +4 on: October 13, 2016, 05:59:47 pm
Assuming people can't vote for Stein, it's more like a +5-6 Clinton lead if you believe Emerson (and I'd recommend not to).
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Hillary start going easy on Trump? on: October 11, 2016, 08:55:50 pm
Yes, take it easy for 2 more weeks to make sure it's too late for him to drop out and then destroy him and the GOP in the final days, so they don't have the chance to react.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CNN releases first battleground map for Clinton vs. Trump on: May 05, 2016, 12:46:26 pm
This is just a generic battleground map. 
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NY,PA,WI-CBS/YouGov: Sanders/Cruz in WI; Clinton/Trump in NY, Trump in PA on: April 03, 2016, 09:56:40 am
Great numbers for TRUMP in PA.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET) on: March 15, 2016, 07:57:41 pm
Kasich victory in OH is good news for Trump. Cruz would probably beat him in most states in a two-man race. Now, Trump can keep winning states with 35 to 45% of the vote.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL - PPP: Trump up 10 on: March 10, 2016, 07:49:55 pm
Not a bad poll for TRUMP, considering it was taken before his HUGE wins in MI, HI and MS and Little Marco meltdown there.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) on: March 01, 2016, 09:30:50 pm
When does the recount start in MN and CO?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) on: March 01, 2016, 08:03:54 pm
I'm telling you, they're gonna get burned one of these days.  Nobody is in a position to call Massachusetts yet.

OK. Shut up until that happens, please.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) on: March 01, 2016, 07:59:00 pm
Guys, stop responding to Oldies. He says the same crap even if it's obvious someone's going to win by 50+ points.
Dude, a candidate can be winning 3 votes to 1 and that would be 75%.  Do you seriously think a race can be called simply by those numbers?

You always say the same thing and you're always wrong.
Just wait.  One of these days, the networks will get burned just like they did in 2000.

When that happens, can I call you "broken clock"?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) on: March 01, 2016, 07:53:50 pm
Guys, stop responding to Oldies. He says the same crap even if it's obvious someone's going to win by 50+ points.
Dude, a candidate can be winning 3 votes to 1 and that would be 75%.  Do you seriously think a race can be called simply by those numbers?

You always say the same thing and you're always wrong.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Predicts Republican NV 2016: Now with 100% less Jeb! (And old results) on: February 22, 2016, 02:21:39 pm
Republicans

Trump: 44
Rubio: 25
Cruz: 19
Kasich: 8
Carson: 3
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: March 1st State Ratings on: February 22, 2016, 02:11:02 pm
Republicans

Alabama: Safe TRUMP
Alaska: Lean TRUMP
Arkansas: Likely TRUMP
Georgia: Safe TRUMP
Massachusetts: Safe TRUMP
Minnesota: Lean TRUMP
Oklahoma: Tilt TRUMP
Tennessee: Likely TRUMP
Texas: Lean Cruz
Vermont: Safe TRUMP
Virginia: Likely TRUMP

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Likely Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Tilt Sanders
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump managed to put a stake in both the bush dynasty and nate silver on: February 22, 2016, 08:57:28 am
Quick correction: no stake has been put in Nate Silver. He always gave Trump a non-trivial chance of winning. That you guys don't understand statistics isn't his fault.

LoL.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who do you vote for TRUMP v Clinton on: February 21, 2016, 12:28:42 pm
Clinton is my 2nd choice and TRUMP comes 3rd. I'm feeling the Bern.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post-SC: Who wins Nevada? on: February 21, 2016, 10:44:16 am
TRUMP. Not even close.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET) on: February 20, 2016, 02:50:54 pm
So, the caucus starts in 15 minutes and CNN just showed a quarter mile long line outside ...

Highly disturbing from an Austrian's point of view. I never waited more than 1 minute to vote.

You have repeated this like 3 times.

And ? Does it make it less accurate ?

No, but it makes you more annoying.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET) on: February 20, 2016, 02:47:16 pm
So, the caucus starts in 15 minutes and CNN just showed a quarter mile long line outside ...

Highly disturbing from an Austrian's point of view. I never waited more than 1 minute to vote.

You have repeated this like 3 times.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Predicts NH 2016: Who did the best, who did the worst? on: February 19, 2016, 02:02:38 pm
I think I am one of the only Brazilians to be in the top of a positive ranking in 2016 :lol:

I'm half-Brazilian, actually.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Predicts SC and NV 2016: 'We know exactly what we're doing' on: February 19, 2016, 01:54:05 pm
Republicans
Trump: 34
Rubio: 19
Cruz: 21
Kasich: 8
Bush: 11
Carson: 6

[UPDATED]

Democrats
Sanders: 50.7
Clinton: 49
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Final Democratic Nevada Caucus Predictions on: February 19, 2016, 09:33:29 am
My first prediction was

52.7% Sanders
47% Clinton
0.3% Others/Uncomitted

Now, it is:

50.7% Sanders
49% Clinton
0.3% Others/Uncomitted
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2 days out: Predict SC on: February 18, 2016, 07:58:38 pm
This was my prediction last Sunday:

Trump 39%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 13%
Bush 11%
Kasich 8%
Carson 6%
Others 1%

Now, it is:

Trump 36%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 17%
Bush 11%
Kasich 8%
Carson 6%
Others 1%
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win SC GOP primary? on: February 15, 2016, 12:27:48 pm
No way TRUMP doesn't win this.
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