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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why haven't Trump's opponents portrayed him as a RINO? on: Today at 11:25:34 am
Finally, Donald Trump is not a leader. A leader doesn't take to Twitter at 3 a.m. to bash an accomplished television personality in a sexist manner. A leader doesn't attack veterans, immigrants, and people smarter than himself/herself. A leader doesn't lie to people. A leader certainly doesn't change positions in an attempt to curry favor with different groups.

This here is, to me anyway, the key point. I will, barring the Democrats deciding to randomly nominate Dan Lipinski, be voting for the Republican nominee unless it is Trump. It's not that I have some deep-seating love for 'job creators' or whatever the Republican talking points say I'm supposed to think. It's that Donald Trump has shown antics throughout the entirety of his campaign that are completely unacceptable for one seeking elected office. Just imagine the thought of that nutjob (yes he is one) having the keys to nuclear missiles! I'm sure with the NSA's database, he could not only leak Lindsay Graham's cell phone number; he could leak mine too, or yours, or anyone's. And being Trump, if you offended him somehow he probably would. And for all his drivel about how people are too offended by political correctness, his skin is thinner than all the rest. Perhaps if he ever bothered to look in the mirror instead of perpetually throwing bombs he might notice. For all his talk about the corrupt establishment, he doesn't seem to have any regret for people who lost their jobs over his real estate transactions. Donald Trump is not a leader; he's a sociopath. I would not vote for him for local dogcatcher.

I will say that I would not have done many of the things Donald Trump has done if I were running for office; it's not my style.

That being said, if Donald Trump is a sociopath, what do we say about the Bush Family?  Of Bush 41, who went to Paris during the 1980 campaign to delay the release of Iranian hostages to influence the election?  Or who pardoned Cap Weinberger so he wouldn't have to testify under oath of his (Bush 41's) role in Iran Contra?  Or of Bush 43, who waged war against a country on false pretenses, knowing they were false? 

Behind their genteel manners, the Bushes have no scruples; it's all about raw political and business power.

Yes the Bushes were terrible, but they aren't running for president in 2016. If opposition to free trade is your big issue, why not vote for Sanders? If his social liberalism scares you, take comfort in the fact that he wouldn't be able to pass anything through a Republican congress anyway.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When Will Yeb Bush drop out? on: August 29, 2015, 09:25:03 pm
Can someone fill me in on what calling him Yeb has to do with his wife being Hispanic?  Five minutes of googling has not told me anything.

Yeb has nothing to do with his wife. It has to do with him. He'd prefer it. He says he is bi-cultural and actually called himself hispanic

That doesn't even come close to answering my question.  I want to know what the name/word Yeb has to do with being hispanic.

Have you never heard a Spanish accent before? J makes the Y sound in Spanish, so Jeb becomes Yeb. It's obviously a jab at Bush's bald pandering to latino voters.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Bernie-mentum dead? on: August 29, 2015, 01:50:22 pm
This early in the cycle, plenty of people still aren't paying attention. Let's wait until the post-October debate polls come out before passing any judgments.
4  Forum Community / Mock Parliment / Re: Left Bloc on: August 27, 2015, 11:18:15 am
Why must one be a member of one the two parties? Are independent leftists like myself really barred from joining?
It's a Parliamentary group, so sadly you can't join. Though if you ever get elected to Parliament you can join.

Ah, I missed that. Whoops.
5  Forum Community / Mock Parliment / Re: Department of Justice on: August 26, 2015, 10:57:23 pm
A question, which I hope is not too far afield. What is the status of recreational drugs, or intoxicants not sanctioned for medical purposes, in our state? Is our government torching coca fields in Colombia and the Andes region and combatting drug barons and smugglers active in the region? Or are drugs legal and regulated (if so, which drugs)?

Thank you, Minister.
6  Forum Community / Mock Parliment / Re: Left Bloc on: August 26, 2015, 10:52:51 pm
Why must one be a member of one the two parties? Are independent leftists like myself really barred from joining?
7  Forum Community / Mock Parliment / Re: National Congress of Labour (NCL) on: August 26, 2015, 10:51:42 pm
I agree with the demands of the recent working paper. May I join the NCL?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Watch Trump imitate asian negotiators broken english on: August 26, 2015, 10:44:10 pm
More racism from Trump, who would have guessed? He'll probably jump up in the polls because of this. Republicans need to WAKE UP and STOP supporting this RACIST, MEAN-SPIRITED man. His campaign LACKS SPECIFICS and is JUST a bunch of EMPTY RHETORIC. We don't need a PRESIDENT with SOLUTIONS NOT ONE WHO JUST BLOWS SMOKE!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, he just wants to make you shout in rage. I've seen at least two people I know well quit the party over this. It's extraordinarily frustrating, but keep in mind you, I, and people are like us are the sane ones. We will win in the end.

I thought Trump liked to talk about how smart the Chinese were. Why is he making fun of them, then? Although he sort of seems to be talking about how straight to the point they can be, which may be along the same lines... I guess?

At least this will make Jeb's comments look like small fish.

One hears a similar line in certain socialist circles. "Capitalism is based on contradictions and therefore must collapse, we have the correct positions and the deepest understanding of the system, therefore we will eventually win." Don't delude yourself into thinking be right guarantees victory. Trump could very easily win the Republican nomination and wreck your party permanently.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas 3 way poll (fixed) on: August 26, 2015, 10:40:38 pm
Jill Stein

Seconding this. Can we start including NOTA/Other options in these polls?
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CHALLENGE: Where would these supporters go if these candidates drop out? on: August 26, 2015, 10:39:29 pm
Is Cruz the consensus candidate?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the October debate has only 6 people, and no mini debate, who should go? on: August 26, 2015, 10:38:23 pm
Consensus seems to be Trump, Rubio, Bush, Carson, Walker & Cruz

That's because they are top 6 in polling, even if you extend beyond national and include early states.  That being said I doubt CNBC will limit to 6 with no kiddie table.  But I would like to see them maybe limit to 8 and factor in early state polling. As for the remaining 9 perhaps a round table discussion with only those polling above 1%

To see what a metric which included early state polling might look like, I came up with the following method. Average together the RCP averages for Iowa and New Hampshire. Then average that number with the RCP National average. That gives us the following:

22.9% Trump
9.4% Bush
9.3% Carson
8.2% Walker
7.1% Cruz
6.9% Fiorina
6.3% Rubio
6.0% Kasich
---8 man cutoff---
4.2% Paul
3.7% Huckabee
3.5% Christie
1.2% Perry
1.1% Santorum
0.8% Jindal
0.7% Graham
0.3% Pataki
0.0% Gilmore
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: What will be the status of Abortion in the year 2115? on: August 25, 2015, 08:23:50 pm
Illegal.  I think the next president will appoint enough SCOTUS justices to overturn Roe, and that some of the scientific crowd will eventually convert.  I'll say Roe is gone in ~10 years and it is illegal nationwide in ~50.

Any particular reason why, or is that just want you want to happen?
13  General Politics / Economics / Re: Is anyone paying attention to what happened today? on: August 24, 2015, 09:36:33 am
This seems disproportionate to events in China, though. It doesn't account to anywhere near the level of decline we're seeing. I worry this slide is result of fears about an anemic recovery which has been far slower than any other, any China is just the spark.

China has been the world's growth engine since 2008. With China landing, we're faced with a crisis of oversupply.
14  General Politics / Economics / Re: Is anyone paying attention to what happened today? on: August 24, 2015, 09:10:22 am
I'm pulling all of my money out of the bank and hiding it under my pillow, now.

I don't think a bail-in is likely in the US.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / "Cathcon" just sent me a gay porn on: August 23, 2015, 01:33:17 pm
New poster, not that one. Mods, plz ban.
16  General Politics / Economics / Re: Why are commodity prices falling? on: August 23, 2015, 12:14:08 pm
Commodity prices are falling because consumer demand (in particular from Chinese firms) is falling. That's a no brainer. But why is global demand so weak?
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of eric82oslo? on: August 22, 2015, 10:43:07 pm
Needs a new hobby.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 (well, maybe...) on: August 22, 2015, 12:27:16 pm
If the anti Tsipras people control the CC, couldn't THEY take over SYRIZA and force Tsipras to start a break away?

I don't know enough about Syriza politics to say why, but the Left Platform discarded that option by founding their new party. That's probably for the best, since from their perspective the Syriza brand has become associated with capitulation.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump/Sessions ticket on: August 22, 2015, 12:21:37 pm
For there to be a 1964 style defeat, it would take a real race baiter to win the Republican nomination...

Trump is a worse candidate than Goldwater. Hispanics would vote like Blacks if Trump won the nomination.

And Goldwater, for all of his flaws, is actually a respectable human being.

How is that?
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Donald Trump (R) vs. Michael Bloomberg (D) vs. Mark Zuckerberg (I) on: August 22, 2015, 12:20:19 pm
21  General Politics / Economics / Why are commodity prices falling? on: August 22, 2015, 12:11:16 pm
I have my own opinions, but I'd like to hear everyone else's theories.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Which of the tech billionaires have presidential ambitions? on: August 21, 2015, 07:55:27 pm
Who among the tech billionaires made in the past two decades do you think will run, or at least flirt with running for president in the future? The tech billionaires are particularly interesting to me because they're young enough that they should still be around three decades from now.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 (well, maybe...) on: August 21, 2015, 12:01:04 pm
No, the Supreme Court president is caretaker PM.

Is that so? Strange. Why did he resign, in that case?

I'm copying below a detailed response from user Romanos on alternatehistory.com, who is a knowledgeable Greek.

Here's a Q&A about this, in case anyone's interested:

- Elections again, Greece? What's wrong with you?

The PM, Tsipras, no longer has a workable majority after his U-turn and signing of the 3rd loan/memorandum and new rounds of austerity. SYRIZA, his party, was elected to put an end to austerity within the Eurozone, which is not possible, as was made clear during the months of negotiations between the last election - in January - and July. This has created a party split, leaving him without a workable majority - in fact, not even a workable minority, as only 119 out of 162 government MPs in a 300-strong Parliament now support his policy.

- How fragmented is SYRIZA?

Very. 44 of its 149 MPs voted against the 3rd memorandum. But as the parliamentary group is much more pro-Tsipras than the rest of the party, the real problem for Tsipras is SYRIZA itself.

In the Central Committee, the main party organ, a majority are against the U-turn. About half plus a little more from the dissidents are openly pro-drachma, while the rest of the dissidents used to be pro-Tsipras but relations between them have cooled a lot since he became pro-Establishment (which correlates but doesn't necesserily mean pro-austerity/pro-memorandum).

The pro-drachma group would have accepted moderate austerity, but the sheer magnitude of the about-face from Tsipras and his 'with me or against me' attitude forced their hand to come out openly against him. The other group (they're called "53+") are more moderate and had been trying to reconcile the fanctions of the party. This strategy has failed.

- So what now for SYRIZA?

A majority of the Central Committee members had signed a petition for its emergency convening. Tsipras' side then counterpoposed a Party Convention in September. The moderate 53+ group tried to reconcile the two sides by agreeing with Tsipras but insisting that he wouldn't take actions against the dissidents until then. This moratorium was violated by Tsipras who dared the dissidents to bring down 'The First Left Government in Europe' (tm).

As the election seems to be scheduled for mid- to late-September, the Party Convetion is now immaterial, as it will happen after the election.

But SYRIZA can't go to elections with half being pro-memorandum and half anti-memorandum, something has to give, right?

Yes, in all likelihood SYRIZA as we knew until now will not exist from now on. As I said before, the dissidents have a majority in the CC, with which they could even expel Tsipras and his people from the leadership and the party. This would be the only way for SYRIZA to continue being considered 'Leftist'. They decided not to do that after the compromise Convention was agreed, but now that the gloves are off, they could try.

If that doesn't happen, Tsipras will try to expel the dissidents from the party lists. In SYRIZA, the CC decides on those, so it's unclear yet how he will manage that. There's also the possibility of the dissidents (or a part of them) leaving on their own to form a new party. We'll find out shortly.

- Moving on, what about the other parties?

First of all, a SYRIZA victory is a foregone conclusion. Second, ND polls abysmally in the polls, in the low to mid 20s. Golden Dawn may do better than the previous time, KKE will do more or less the same, ANEL and PASOK will struggle to enter Parliament, and we may get a new party, the 'Union of Centrists'.

- ND ('New Democracy', Pro-memorandum, Right)

Their previous leader and former PM, Samaras, was a far-right figure which enstranged many in the party who then turned to 'Potami'. Their current leader, Meimarakis, is not too far off ideologically from Samaras, but he has played smartly both inside and outside the party.

Meimarakis was not elected as party leader, he's supposed to be interim. But Samaras pretty much annointed him upon his resignation (contrary to the party constitution). This was later confirmed by the party and now he's leader until next year. He's more likeable from Samaras (not too hard for anyone) and has tried to show he's more centrist and moderate than him (same).

The party still suffers from its time in government, which was only too recently.

- GD (Golden Dawn, Nazi)

This laughable bunch has thankfully made many mistakes which turned the state against them. Thanks to that, their leadership is in jail or house arrest pending trial for their crimes. However they have now solidified their core voters and may do better than in January because of disillusionment at SYRIZA's "sell-out". They claim to be anti-memorandum, but they have at times come out for policies which further the interests of their ship magnate benefactors.

-Potami ('The River', Pro-memorandum, Centre-right)

They were created last year by a journalist. Although he and his party claim to be independent of the establishment, he has many connections to ND. It's a very leadership-centric party (the party constitution refers to 'The Leader'). It has been propped by the establishment media, although it didn't do as well as the polls... ehm, indicated. They now form the pro-EU block with ND and PASOK which support SYRIZA's U-turn, pro-austerity policies but don't support the government

-PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Party, Pro-memorandum, Centre)

Well, there's not much to say here. They will struggle to pass the 3% threshold. It's basically a relic for the old people who long for the days of Andreas Papandreou.

-ANEL ('Independent Greeks', Pro-memorandum, Right)

This ND breakaway was initially created by ND dissidends in 2012 who opposed the 2nd memorandum. It was vehemently anti-memorandum and was mildly nationalist in its tone. It's now SYRIZA's governing partner and will struggle to pass the threshold.

-KKE ('Communist Party of Greece, Anti-memorandum, Communist)

KKE is the oldest party in Greece. It's old style and it considers itself vindicated for having refused to work with SYRIZA, as it has now been exposed, says the KKE, to be 'another organ for the furthering of the capital's interests'. Nevertheless, it isn't expected to fare significantly better than last time.

-EK ('Unon of Centrists, ?)

This is a one-man show since the 90s. The leader, an old man, has always had an anti-establishment rhetoric. But during the past few months he has got lots of media attention and may pass the threshold. He has said he would form a government with Tsipras' SYRIZA.

- Ok, so what's the procedure now?

Normally, the PM can ask the President to dissolve Parliament at any time. But, says the Constitution, he can't do that before 1 year until the last election happened passes. Therefore, he can either cause elections either by losing a vote of confidence or resigning.

Tsipras' people had leaked that he will table a vote of confidence to dare the dissidents to bring him down, thus shifting the blame to them. But today reports are coming out that he (and the govt) will resign instead.

However, as SYRIZA don't have a majority, the Constitution says that the President must ask the next 2 parties to try to form a government. This will be formality, as they won't be able to. The problem is, the last one is Golden Dawn, and the Presidency has been trying to avoid having GD's leader getting an exploratory mandate to form a government.

Then, the President must call all party leaders to try one last time to form a government, and if that fails to form an all party govt to conduct elections. If they can't even agree to that, he must ask one of the Chief Justices of either the Court of Cassation, the Council of State or the Court of Auditors to form a caretaker government to conduct the elections.

- But why did Tsipras chose now to hold elections?

Because he's been very weakened by the split in his party and the fact that he has to reply to opposition to pass the measures. Also, the effect of the new measures hasn't yet reached the economy and that would bring down his popularity a lot. Plus, some of the most severe measures are to be voted in October and that would also be very damaging to him.

Hope that's helpful to someone.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Expecting 30,000+ At S. Alabama University: HELD AT FOOTBALL STADIUM on: August 20, 2015, 11:07:25 pm
No way does it beat Sanders' 28,000 record so far for this election.

It certainly could. Southerners love trump. I'm a cashier in [small town], Georgia, and I've started asking shoppers with large loads who they support for president, to get a feel for the Republican primary. And unanimously, the first name off everyone's lips is "Trump" who "has a lot of good ideas." This sh**t is real.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Effect: Jeb Bush calls for greater enforcement against Ďanchor babiesí on: August 20, 2015, 12:45:56 pm
What is really fascinating here is that despite Donald Trump being the front-runner, Hillary Clinton is attacking Jeb Bush.

I am pretty sure, at this point, that Trump doing what he is doing for the benefit of Hillary Clinton. His job is to screw the GOP by making the word Republican dirty in every Hispanic household in the country, and than stay as a growling presence in the race, making sure nobody forgets. Clinton is not expecting Trump to be in the GE - perhaps, she actually knows smthg.

I love that we can ascribe all sorts of conspiracy to the Clintons; Trump being a Clinton plant, the BLM protesters at Bernie events being connected to the Clinton machine, etc., and nobody bats an eye. Like, I could totally believe that Trump is doing this in part to get a favor from Clinton.
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