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July 05, 2015, 12:37:35 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Election night 2020: Bernie Sanders reelected president on: Today at 12:08:16 am
http://www.gallup.com/poll/183713/socialist-presidential-candidates-least-appealing.aspx

Less than half of Americans would vote for a candidate who is a socialist.

How the fvck is your reaction if the man literally just won. Go back to shlt post hell.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The Real "Firewall": The 206 Firewall on: Today at 12:06:47 am
This is a better floor map then most, but if Minnesota is a swing state, surely North Carolina is too.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Atlas Forum Straw Poll for Democrats: 2016 Presidential Nominee on: July 04, 2015, 12:24:12 pm
Hillary, because I'm not naive

How boring.
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Civil War in Syria on: July 04, 2015, 09:30:39 am
*bump*

So, is this conflict going to continue forever?  Can any side be said to have "momentum" right now?


"Momentum"? No, not really. The Kurds made big gains recently, but the Arab population around Tal Abyad doesn't seem particularly happy to be added to the Kurdish confederation; there appears to be an ongoing ISIS insurgency in that area. And if Turkey actually follows through and invades the strip from Jarablus to the Afrin border, that would most certainly halt Kurdish momentum, and be a great boost to Al Qaeda (Al-Nusra and Friends) and the other paramilitary groups we call "the rebels" fighting in the Aleppo region.

If I had to make a prediction, I'd guess that Assad will abandon his "four corners" strategy and pull back to a more easily defensible line from Damascus to Latakia, leaving the rebels to squabble over interior Syria. But interior Syria and western Iraq will probably be a hellhole of one kind or another for years to come.

This is a rather good analyse, Assad are loking like he's beginning to focus on his core territories, and leaving "government" areas outside this to loyalist Sunni tribes and the random religious minority (mostly Druzes, as the Assyrians outside the core territories have mostly joined the Kurds). So what we're de facto seeing are a split up of Syria into several state-like structures. From a Druze run As-Suwayda Governorate, the Kurdish areas (who seem to be in alliance with the last "moderate" FSA units and the Assyrians), Al Nusra (Al Qaeda) around Aleppo and ISIS. With areas near the Iraqi border being fought over by Sunni tribal loyalist and ISIS and Daara being a cluster fought over by a ISIS, Al Nusra (includes FSA), the Druzes, local Shias etc.

How you put up all of the above text without a map? Sad

This map, from yesterday, should help you make sense of the situation



Feel free to ask if you have any questions. The situation is quite complex, but I've been following it long enough to have a decent understanding at least of the factions involved.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: I'm calling it now. on: July 03, 2015, 02:10:15 pm
I don't get why everyone is so convinced that Tom Cotton will be the nominee in 2020.
He looks like a TV president.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2015 on: July 03, 2015, 02:06:48 pm
Cris, any chance of getting an updated graph?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Iowa Republican Caucuses Poll - July 2015 on: July 03, 2015, 02:05:47 pm
Betting on a Walker implosion, I'll say Cruz wins Iowa, Santorum-style.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Which of these states can Bernie win? on: July 02, 2015, 08:13:09 pm
What do you think?
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders Attracting 9500+ People at Madison Rally on: July 01, 2015, 08:12:43 pm
Relevant:

10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders Attracting 9500+ People at Madison Rally on: July 01, 2015, 06:55:42 pm
You realise you guys are indistinguishable from Paultards right?

Paul (and his son) never had a chance though.

Sanders has (he's already polling much higher than Paul ever has, in NH).

Cool. He still has zero chance though.

You realize you're rocking Martin O'Malley in your signature right?

Pretty sure Oakvale is a fan of The Wire.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it safe to assume neither Jim Gilmore nor Bob Ehrlich are going to run? on: July 01, 2015, 06:54:38 pm
Who?
HA HA HA YOU ARE SO CLEVER AND ORIGINAL

I really don't know who these people are tbh. I mean, I've read their names on Atlas before, but that's it. I don't even know what state Erlich is from.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Bush survive losing both IA and NH to different candidates? on: July 01, 2015, 05:05:34 pm
Bush isn't going to win South Carolina after losing IA and NH, but he (or Rubio) could possibly, unlike Giuliani, win Florida despite not winning any previous states.

No. Noooo.

Feb 1: Iowa caucuses
Feb 9: New Hampshire
Feb 20: South Carolina
Feb 23: Nevada caucuses
Mar 1: Super Tuesday (Alabama, Minnesota caucuses, Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho caucuses, Massachusetts, North Carolina, North Dakota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, Vermont)
Mar 5: Kansas caucuses, Louisiana, Washington caucuses
Mar 8: Hawaii caucuses, Michigan, Mississippi
Mar 15: Ohio, Florida, Illinois

There's no way either of those candidates fail continually for six weeks and then magically win Florida. The home state advantage is nowhere near that strong in the modern era.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you have voted for... on: July 01, 2015, 04:53:54 pm
Oh, how we change.

S'pose I should do this again, since my views have changed a bit.

1789-George Washington-(I)
1792-George Washington-(I)
1796-Thomas Jefferson-(D-R)
1800-Thomas Jefferson-(D-R)
1804-Thomas Jefferson-(D-R)
1808-James Madison-(D-R)
1812-James Madison-(D-R)
1816-James Monroe-(D-R)
1820-James Monroe-(D-R)
1824-Henry Clay-(D-R)
1828-John Q. Adams-(NR)
1832-Henry Clay-(NR)
1836-Daniel Webster-(W)
1840-James Birney-(L)
1844-James K. Polk-(D)
1848-Zachary Taylor-(W)
1852-Winfield Scott-(W)
1856-John C. Frémont-(R)
1860-Abraham Lincoln-(R)
1864-Abraham Lincoln-(R)
1868-Ulysses S. Grant-(R)
1872-Horace Greeley-(LR/D)
1876-Rutherford B. Hayes-(R)
1880-James A. Garfield-(R)
1884-Grover Cleveland-(D)
1888-Grover Cleveland-(D)
1892-Grover Cleveland-(D)
1896-John Palmer-(ND)
1900-William McKinley-(R)
1904-Theodore Roosevelt-(R)
1908-William Taft-(R)
1912-Theodore Roosevelt-(R)
1916-Charles Hughes-(R)
1920-Parley Christensen-(FL)
1924-Robert La Follette-(P)
1928-Herbert Hoover-(R)
1932-Franklin D. Roosevelt-(S)
1936-Franklin D. Roosevelt-(D)
1940-Franklin D. Roosevelt-(D)
1944-Thomas Dewey-(R)
1948-Thomas Dewey-(R)
1952-Dwight Eisenhower-(R)
1956-Dwight Eisenhower-(R)
1960-John F. Kennedy-(D)
1964-Lyndon B. Johnson-(D)
1968-Hubert Humphrey-(D)
1972-Richard Nixon-(R)
1976-Gerald Ford-(R)
1980-John Anderson-(I)
1984-NOTA
1988-Michael Dukakis-(D)
1992-Ross Perot-(I)
1996-William Clinton-(D)
2000-Al Gore-(D)
2004-George W. Bush-(R)
2008-John McCain-(R)

Here's an updated list, just of post-WWII elections.

1948: Henry Wallace (Progressive)
1952: Vincent Hallinan (Progressive)
1956: Adlai Stevenson (Democrat)
1960: John Kennedy (Democrat)
1964: Lyndon Johnson (Democrat)
1968: Eugene McCarthy (write-in)
1972: George McGovern (Democrat)
1976: Eugene McCarthy (Independent)
1980: David McReynolds (SPUSA)
1984: Walter Mondale (Democrat)
1988: Willa Kenoyer (SPUSA)
1992: Ross Perot (Independent)
1996: Ralph Nader (Green)
2000: Ralph Nader (Green)
2004: John Kerry (Democrat)
2008: Barack Obama (Democrat)
2012: Jill Stein (Green)
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Bush survive losing both IA and NH to different candidates? on: July 01, 2015, 02:47:19 pm
well the size and caliber of the field helps him.

I expect, that much like 2008 and 2016 Florida will be a complete last stand for either Bush or Rubio.

Florida will be after Super Tuesday.

Yes, Jeb can survive two early losses, but he would have to turn it around in South Carolina.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Civil War in Syria on: July 01, 2015, 02:43:45 pm
*bump*

So, is this conflict going to continue forever?  Can any side be said to have "momentum" right now?


"Momentum"? No, not really. The Kurds made big gains recently, but the Arab population around Tal Abyad doesn't seem particularly happy to be added to the Kurdish confederation; there appears to be an ongoing ISIS insurgency in that area. And if Turkey actually follows through and invades the strip from Jarablus to the Afrin border, that would most certainly halt Kurdish momentum, and be a great boost to Al Qaeda (Al-Nusra and Friends) and the other paramilitary groups we call "the rebels" fighting in the Aleppo region.

If I had to make a prediction, I'd guess that Assad will abandon his "four corners" strategy and pull back to a more easily defensible line from Damascus to Latakia, leaving the rebels to squabble over interior Syria. But interior Syria and western Iraq will probably be a hellhole of one kind or another for years to come.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton State Department email release on: July 01, 2015, 11:08:32 am
Looking over the first few emails, it looks like Hillary is out of the office by 4pm every day. That's a nice schedule; I'm pretty jelly.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PPP found a way to poll all 16 candidates on: June 30, 2015, 11:22:57 am
The fact that Jindal has arguably the most perfect record of all the candidates, in terms of pure red meat to give to primary voters, and is still polling consistently at the very bottom of the pack, blows my mind.

Like, if he wasn't such a hatable pandering dips**t he'd be unstoppable.

Honestly, how many people do you think know his name? If Jindal had a sugar daddy, he'd be polling far higher than he is.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: John Kasich to announce presidential bid July 21 on: June 29, 2015, 04:18:36 pm
Hopefully for his sake, there are 5 live phone polls between then and August 1.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of burning Confederate flags on: June 28, 2015, 08:45:24 am
Freedom action and a wonderful way to celebrate the 4th of July.

Yes, although aren't you supposed to burn on of these on July 4th?



I wouldn't, although if Scotland did in fact vote for independence I'd have no problem burning a Scottish flag.

...

I suppose you also burn the Irish flag every April, then?

We didn't become independent from Ireland in April.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DEMOCRATS: If Webb wins nomination, would you vote for him in general? on: June 26, 2015, 08:04:07 pm
Technically not a democrat, I'd probably vote for Stein.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: June 26, 2015, 06:35:33 pm
Here is a blog post by Paul Mason giving background to the referendum, what is being asked, and what can be expected. It is full of typical Masonesque overstatement and dramatics but the best summary I can find on the web as of now.

Good for getting the basics, but this quote seems off-base.

Quote
It may come down to: who has the biggest social power on the streets — the Greek left, inclduing the KKE, Syriza, the unions etc — or the right. Which is what Greek history has always tried not to ask since 1974.

I'm pretty sure the Greek right is prepared to vote no. ANEL opposes the austerity deal, as I believe, do Golden Dawn.
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rate the Presidents, Installment #19: Rutherford B. Hayes on: June 26, 2015, 06:25:42 pm
One star. Betrayed reconstruction, giving white supremacists full control over the South for the next century. The proper response to the Democrat's attempts to steal the 1876 election was to hang the traitors, not appease them.

Seconding this. Where are all the three star votes coming from?
23  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Foreign Languages Taught in US Public Schools on: June 26, 2015, 06:23:37 pm
I voted Spanish, French, Mandarin, Arabic, Russian.

Why is there a limit to five? Shouldn't we want our children to be as knowledgeable as possible? Admittedly, with high school, you're limited to only (usually) four years to drill in the necessary knowledge, but in ideal circumstances, for those few classes that high schoolers do have as electives, they'd have virtually unlimited possibilities.

In the ideal, it would be wonderful to be able to choose from all the major languages, but there are fiscal constraints. The school I went to could only afford to offer three languages (Spanish, French, and Latin); I suspect two or three is probably the norm. I think Spanish should be offered by every high school, regardless of location. The second language offered should vary by location; for example, Duluth, GA should obvious teach Korean at the high school level, schools in Arizona and New Mexico near reservations should offer Navajo classes, etc. If the school can afford a third language, I think French is the best choice considering both the number of global speakers, and the  historical interaction between the Francophone and Anglophone world which makes French literature more approachable (IMO). If there's room for a fourth class, whichever of Mandarin, Arabic, and Russian that a school can find a qualified teacher for would be good; all of those are spoken by hundreds of millions of people in.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In what states would you guess Trump is polling strongest in (in the primaries)? on: June 26, 2015, 10:31:01 am
Connecticut.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Primary ballot access deadlines on: June 26, 2015, 10:30:14 am
IIRC, the first ballot filing deadlines start coming up in October, but I'd have to look it up.


Any idea where you'd look? The GA SoS site is useless, and I haven't seen anything on Frontloading HQ, the Green Papers, or Ballotpedia.
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