How could one predict that in July of 2010?

I have a crystal ball.

How much would you sell it for?

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

The south isn't as biggoted as you seem to think; or more accurately those who vote in the south are not as biggoted as you think.

It depends, I don't say all whites were bigots, but I suspect there are at least quite a few.  A large number of southern counties shifted solidly into the Republican collum during an overall 9% shift to the Democrats nationwide.  Pretty odd, don't you think?  Even though white votes in genral voted for the Republican, the case was much more extreame in the South.  McCain got 80%+ of the white vote in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiania.  And most of the other states he got around 70% or so of white voters.  In many other states, Republicans get in the 50% or low 60% range, which, in comarison to the numbers in several southern states, is much smaller. 

What those numbers say is that a large majority of southern whites are conservative, not racist.  You are right, there are some who are racist but they are a minority.  The number of racists that vote is an even more miniscule number.  Generally, and yes this is a blanket statement, racists are uneducated white trash uninterested in politics when it goes beyond parroting Rush Limbaugh to actually getting off the couch/out of the trailer and voting.

Alright,  but voting differences of that magnitude seems at least somewhat odd during a very Democratic year.

It's a symptom of the increasing polarization of American politics.  I predict we will see it even more in 2012.

How could one predict that in July of 2010?

The "Introduction to Atlas Fantasy Elections" says that there are 35 members of the POP....

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

The south isn't as biggoted as you seem to think; or more accurately those who vote in the south are not as biggoted as you think.

It depends, I don't say all whites were bigots, but I suspect there are at least quite a few.  A large number of southern counties shifted solidly into the Republican collum during an overall 9% shift to the Democrats nationwide.  Pretty odd, don't you think?  Even though white votes in genral voted for the Republican, the case was much more extreame in the South.  McCain got 80%+ of the white vote in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiania.  And most of the other states he got around 70% or so of white voters.  In many other states, Republicans get in the 50% or low 60% range, which, in comarison to the numbers in several southern states, is much smaller. 

What those numbers say is that a large majority of southern whites are conservative, not racist.  You are right, there are some who are racist but they are a minority.  The number of racists that vote is an even more miniscule number.  Generally, and yes this is a blanket statement, racists are uneducated white trash uninterested in politics when it goes beyond parroting Rush Limbaugh to actually getting off the couch/out of the trailer and voting.

328-210

This coincidentally is about the best case scenario I can see for Obama against any opponent.

You honestly think that Palin can win back Indiana and New Hampshire?  That would be more like the map for if Gingrich ran.

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

The south isn't as biggoted as you seem to think; or more accurately those who vote in the south are not as biggoted as you think.

I highly doubt any of those guys are Hamilton. At any rate, I know for sure that Yelnoc and Zacoftheaxes are real. I don't post on www.alternatehistory.com, but I sometimes look at the discussions there, and I have seen both zacoftheaxes and Yelnoc post there. Both seem to be legitimate posters who contribute there. I really doubt that Hamilton trolls on AH.com.

Zacoftheaxes
http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/member.php?u=8673

Yelnoc
http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/member.php?u=10384

Thankyou, I was just about to point out that I am myself.  Now who is Hamilton?

Palin would be crushed, but she would win some states.  If the race stayed a simple two-party race then voter turnout would be phenomenally low and the Libertarian party would do very well, but not enough to affect the outcome.  The map might look something like this:



A third party challenger like Ross Perot, maybe Bloomberg, maybe someone we havn't even thought of, would emerge and finish a solid second in the electoral vote.  Maybe something like this:

It seems to me like we could shave a little off the two billion surplus to fund this.

The Constitution Party and the Libertarian Party each get over a million votes.  Voter turnout is at its lowest in decades.

Obama's approval ratings aren't great, but they aren't the worst.  His approve/disapprove numbers are not far apart on pollster.com (which takes the averages of all the polls), and the same site shows Palin's reputation in the negative double-digits.  I think Obama would still crush her, even if his ratings were the same on election day as they are now.

I think he would flip Arizona, Missouri, and Montana but that's about it.  As Progressive pointed out, people vote along party lines. 

I will be running for the south east legislature as a Populare.

Let's not get hung up on who the chair is.

I nominate Yelnoc.

Thankyou.  I guess I'll nominate me too.

So what exactly does the chairman of the convention do?

[Southeastern Educational Incentive Act]

Just add a bullet defining the term in the act its self.  For instance:

Southeastern Educational Incentive Act
1. The Southeast shall provide a $1,000 tax credit per student to all households who have a member enrolled in an institute of higher learning full-time, and a $500 tax credit to a member enrolled part-time.
2. The credit provided shall not exceed the total value of the income tax assessed. (i.e. taxation cannot be less than $0)
3. A full-time student shall be deemed any student who successfully completes a total of 24 credit hours per year, or completes 12 credit hours per semester.
4. A part-time student  shall be deemed any student who successfully completes at least 6, but no more than 23 credit hours per year, or who completes at least 3, but no more than 11, credit hours per semester.
5. This law shall take effect starting for students enrolled within institutes of higher learning during the semester starting in the Fall of 2010.
6. An "Institute of Higher Learning" shall be defined to the purposes of this Act as any accredited  University, Community College, or Trade School, of both public and private ownership.

The issue of funding is very important, history has shown us that unfunded mandates in education can and will produce a head ache.  Of course, this isn't a problem if we have a budget surplus, as some of that surplus may be allocated towards this program.

Trying to avoid any partisan bias/hackishness



This model applies to absolutely nobody as we are 2 years out from election night 2012.

*Scratches head*

Oregon is a swing state?

I won't be an ordinary politician. I have no experience in managing anything, but I believe I can change Washington. I promise to be transparent. In these times of economic trouble and overall hardship, we all need hope, and I hope you can believe in me to change things for the good. By electing me, you'll be electing change that you can believe in. All the bad things that have gone on in the past decade? Well reverse that and think of the prospects, think "yes we can", why? Because I know I can. Vote for me. Vote for hope. Vote for change.
-----------------------------------------------


NOW DO YOU SEE HOW IDIOTIC OBAMA'S MESSAGE WAS? Be fooled by rhetoric once, shame on you, be fooled on rhetoric twice and see me as President.....

So which media outlets are backing you?

x Yelnoc

Yelnoc
Georgia
Populares

If Ron Paul was to run  he would need a heavy hitting VP to be a serious contender, not a Ron Paul lite with a little exec experience. Plus the whole legalization of pot wouldn't go over too well with parts of the core republican constituency.

Why so much obsession over holding the authoritarian "core Republican constituency"? Oklahoma and Utah aren't going to vote for Obama. The GOP needs to appeal to new constituencies if it wants to survive, not worry about the old ones.

Last election conservative voter turnout was low.  Obama won Virginia, North Carolina, India, Florida, and almost won Missouri.  It would be even lower with a Paul/Johnson ticket.

Giuliani would almost certainly endorse George Pataki, if he runs.

If he runs; right now I don't see that happening.

By the way, are you the same wormyguy ah.com?

All depends on what the situation is with the coming economic collapse.

That's a bit pessimistic.  A few bouts of sluggish growth seem a lot more likely.

http://

With the trends of Obama's approval ratings this is seriously where he is heading if he's lucky. Bush almost lost with a 53% approval rating and Obama is well below that now. Not to mention, that on the night of an election, if the incumbent president's approval rating is below 49%, the undecided vote has gone unanimously for the challenger. So leading 47-45 would mean a 52 or 53-47 Obama loss.

If GOP had another Reagan up their sleeves that would be plausible, but honestly I don't see any of the Republicans possibles winning in anything more than a close election (barring some unforeseen catastrophe). 

Palin is weakest obviously (though the bar is set so low she may turn out like a true warrior in 2012 and stun us)

Gingrich is strongest

Gingrich seems more like a cabinet member then a President.  I have a hard time believing he could pull off a win against Obama, though he is a lot better than most of the GOP's other possibles.