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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 1936 election as predicted by Literary Digest and Gallup on: August 26, 2016, 01:31:40 pm
The main reason that polls like the Literary Digest overstated R numbers at that time is because most polls were done by telephone, which was still primarily owned by wealthy Americans at that time.  And prior to the culture wars, those voters were solidly GOP. 

I just wish that the Literary Digest prediction had been accurate...
No, the polls were mailed, with the recipients then replying if they wanted to (which introduced additional sampling bias). The recipients were chosen from telephone directories, but also roosters of clubs and associations and lists of magazine subscribers. Of course in the middle of a depression these were heavily biased to wealthy voters.

And of course the rule about the wealthy obviously wasn't true about the South.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 1936 election as predicted by Literary Digest and Gallup on: August 25, 2016, 03:38:21 pm
Pesky note - the poll results seem to be "as shares of the 2-party vote". Thus, Roosevelt's result of 64% in North Dakota per Gallup can't be directly compared to his actual result of 59.6% since the Union candidate Lemke took over 10% there.
You're right - discounting Lemke's 13% gives Roosevelt a two party share of nearly 70%.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / 1936 election as predicted by Literary Digest and Gallup on: August 24, 2016, 02:41:51 pm
These two maps are based on the famous final predictions made by Literary Digest (above) and Gallup, then known as American Institute of Public Opinion (below) in 1936. The predictions excluded minor parties and calculated the share of the major party vote in each state instead. This is based on the report published by the Pittsburgh Press the day before the election.

In addition to Connecticut and Rhode Island, Gallup also considered Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming too close to call.





It's interesting that Gallup though largely accurate, gave a better result for the Republicans everywhere except North Dakota. The Republican best case scenario of all too close states going to them actually gives Landon a much better result (216 EV) than any of Roosevelt's opponents ever got.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill Clinton vs Melania Trump on: August 24, 2016, 08:17:29 am
Bill Clinton because he speaks English - normally I'm not a fan of this argument, but for certain jobs, speaking English is a requirement, and it's safe to say FLOTUS is one of them.
Speaking English with an foreign accent is not the same as not speaking English.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why Vets are Still Backing Trump after Khan Controversy on: August 23, 2016, 11:38:22 am
US Veterans are not usually against war.
Corrected this for you. Which is incidentally why the veterans should be backing Clinton. I guess even they tired of endless and futile attempts to rearrange the Middle East to the warmongers whims.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HuffPo: "Kirk Says President Obama Is ‘Acting Like The Drug Dealer In Chief" on: August 22, 2016, 03:08:15 pm
Kirk seems to have become tired of being a senator and no longer wants to win. This is quite contrast with his recent behavior where it seemed he was trying to pretend that he was actually a Democrat in disguise.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jerry Falwell Jr.: Trump is the next Winston Churchill on: August 22, 2016, 02:55:20 pm
Hey, Churchill switched parties often and was a failure until he walked into #10.

Churchill correctly predicted that appeasement was a mistake in the 1930s, the biggest call of the decade.
"Appeasement" failed because the British and French decided to box Germany in. Germany invaded Poland, not them. They started that war. Read Buchanan's book on the subject if you get the chance, I thought it did a good job of shattering the narrative surrounding why Britain guaranteed Poland's hold on Danzig.
After Hitler had violated his promises multiple times, no one was ready to believe him and with good reason. Danzig was just a pretext to conquer Poland as part of his master plan to gain Lebensraum in the East, Hitler actually stated that the last thing he wanted was for "some bastard" to arrange a peace agreement.
Buchanan's book is extremely dishonest and unconvincing unless you already believe its message.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jerry Falwell Jr.: Trump is the next Winston Churchill on: August 22, 2016, 02:49:47 pm
Hey, Churchill switched parties often and was a failure until he walked into #10.

Churchill correctly predicted that appeasement was a mistake in the 1930s, the biggest call of the decade.


Churchill's whining about appeasement was as much bull as Kennedy's lies about a "missile gap". Britain and her allies lacked the military force to confront Germany; something Chamberlain's government was fixing as fast as it could.
False, it was Germany that lacked the military force to confront Britain and France, something that Hitler was correcting far faster than Britain and France were increasing their forces. When war between Germany and a coalition of France, Britain and Czechoslovakia seemed imminent in September 1938, several high ranking German generals plotted to overthrow Hitler because they knew that Germany would lose such a war. But the craven Chamberlain surrendered Czechoslovakia to Hitler, setting the stage for a much worse war in just a year's time.

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic WV Governor Candidate: "I can't support Clinton" on: August 22, 2016, 02:18:11 pm
I'd have been more surprised if a WV Dem running for statewide office said they were supporting Clinton.

Pretty sure WV Dems endorsed the nominee in 2008 and 2012 and won in landslides.
Both the gubernatorial and senatorial nominee for the Democrats refused to endorse Obama that year.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Predict the Next Few Presidents Under Both Possible Victory Scenarios on: August 20, 2016, 01:03:16 pm
To be fair, in 1993 it wouldn't be ridiculous to say:
1993-2001: Clinton/Gore
2001-2009: George W. Bush/Dick Cheney
2009-2017: Joe Biden/Hillary Clinton
2017-2021: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh

Which wouldn't be too ridiculously off.
This would not have been at all a likely prediction in 1992. Predicting Bush's son wining after Bush had been defeated would not be plausible. Even more unlikely would be the idea of Clinton's wife becoming President, since there was no tradition of First ladies getting involved in politics.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump wants an ideological test for immigrants on: August 17, 2016, 03:30:35 pm

 to the point of imposing it on non-Muslims.

This pretty much directly contradicts sharia. Next.
In a country where sharia law is state law it obviously affects non-Muslims as well. There are 13 centuries of sharia law practice to back this up. And there is of course the prescription of how non-believers are to be treated in a Muslim state which are certainly part of Sharia as well.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump wants an ideological test for immigrants on: August 16, 2016, 03:14:51 pm
This is more than likely blatantly unconstitutional.
There is nothing in the US constitution that would contravene this or any other limitation of immigration.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary scrubs sexual assault pledge after allegations against Bill resurface on: August 16, 2016, 11:52:07 am
The sentence about having the right to be believed was removed at the beginning of February and is still available in the video attached. So I doubt it has anything to do with the current allegations.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: When was the last time a "lean" or "likely" state went the opposite way? on: August 14, 2016, 05:41:22 am
Maryland in 1988, everybody thought Dukakis would win the state.
Was this before the Willie Horton scandal broke?
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Be honest -- How do you feel about the upcoming minority-majority? on: August 14, 2016, 05:02:52 am
     I expect that the definition of "white" will change so that whites continue to be the majority, so whatever. The list of "white" ethnicities has been subject to plenty of change over the years.
False. None of the people who are considered white now were formerly considered non-white by the law of any state or by that of the federal government. The trend has been in fact in the opposite direction - Hispanics who were formerly considered white by the census have now the option of "other race", plus of course the whole creation of the whole concept of Hispanic ethnicity.
16  General Discussion / History / Re: 1876 Presidential Election Issues on: August 11, 2016, 02:29:34 pm
The Democrats were doing their best to steal the elections in several Southern states by misleading Black voters or preventing them outright from voting.  The Democrats succeeded in Mississippi and came close in Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Hero Punches Zimmerman in the Face on: August 11, 2016, 02:10:46 pm
This happens every year or two.  It's one of the most disgusting aspects of our culture.  Zimmerman is apparently an ass, but he was found innocent of the crimes the media convicted him of.  Trayvon smashed his head into the concrete repeatedly for christ's sake.  Let him live a normal life.
Trayvon Martin was a teenager being stalked by an adult with a gun. He had every right to defend himself. Murderous scum like Zimmerman, on the other hand, has no right to a normal life.
I don't think that even in the US brutally attacking someone because you think he's following you in a public place would qualify as self defense. And Martin most likely couldn't know he had a gun.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ME-Gravis Marketing: Clinton+10 on: August 11, 2016, 01:39:05 pm
There's something going on in this state.... we've probably reached the point where it will vote to the right of NH.

It's the Angry Maine Lumberjacks.
It might be the resettlement of refugees in Maine.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many Clinton counties will Clinton win? on: August 06, 2016, 03:29:54 pm
Ironically, Clinton lost all but one of these counties in the primaries, and the one she won (in Kentucky) is easily the least likely to be won in the general election.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How many Clinton counties will Clinton win? on: August 06, 2016, 01:58:06 pm
For those voting zero, I should point that the Democrats have won Clinton county, IA (which is on the Mississippi) every time since 1984 and with over 60% in 2008 and 2012. Clinton county, NY was also won with over 60% in those elections,
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / How many Clinton counties will Clinton win? on: August 06, 2016, 12:25:46 pm
Seemed appropriate, considering that being the first election since 1996 when there are counties with the same name as one of the candidates (to the probable displeasure of Clinton's opponent, there is no Trump county). Here is the complete list of the nine counties: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_County.

For comparison: Bill Clinton won the Clinton counties in Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and Pennsylvania two times and also won the one in New York in 1996. All subsequent Democratic Presidential candidates won those in IA and NY and Obama also won the one in Michigan in 2008. The Clinton counties in Ohio and Indiana were last carried by a Democrat in 1964. Clinton county, Kentucky has not voted for a Democrat in a Presidential election since 1868.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: But honestly, what states will Clinton /actually/ win? on: August 05, 2016, 03:24:24 pm
As it stands now, the first four. But Georgian and Arizona would be quite close.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2024: Mark Begich v. Richard Tisei on: August 05, 2016, 01:38:21 pm
Something like this:



I think that Alaska is more likely to switch its usual party than Massachusetts, though both would be close, while the VP candidates seem less likely to be able to swing their states.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What county would need to be removed to flip a state to the other presidential on: August 04, 2016, 02:27:40 pm
In 2004 in Iowa it was Sioux county. This is probably one of the very few Republican examples.
25  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: How do you pronounce "Nietzsche?" on: July 31, 2016, 03:35:37 pm
Having first encountered his name in Cyrillic lettering, I would say 'neets-sheh'.
I've also learned to pronounce it this way and this is how it should be pronounced by. But apparently in this case there is an exception to the rule and it should be pronounced with the s silent.
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