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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Gay marriage electoral map before and after SCOTUS decision on: July 05, 2015, 02:53:15 pm
Anybody want to take a crack at this?  How would the states vote if same sex marriage were a national referendum? I'm interested to see how you guys think the results would change before and after the ruling. My assumption is that more people have become pro gay marriage after the ruling, just wanting to be on the right side of history, so maybe that would flip some close states.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Arkansas woman now world’s oldest person, wants Obama visit on: April 02, 2015, 04:41:59 pm
She's actually black. Her bio says her parents were black sharecroppers

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gertrude_Weaver

I thought she was white and was wondering the same thing, so I did some research. She's just light skinned.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Texas Demographic Changes on: February 03, 2015, 05:44:35 pm
Damn, looks like Texas is becoming less black.

I guess what's happening is that Texas' black population and cultural heart is moving from the Piney Woods of east Texas into the cities, while those rural counties are experiencing an influx in their Hispanic population, further diluting the black influence.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Hardest one yet: Describe a Wallace '68/McGovern '72 voter on: January 20, 2015, 08:31:38 pm
Maybe a southern vietnam war vet who became very disillusioned and became a peace activist?
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: opinion of Orlando, FL on: January 08, 2015, 07:33:30 pm
I saw the Book of Mormon last night and I thought it was funny how Price said the place he wanted to go to was Orlando. Ostensibly its a fun place - 70-80 degree temps the whole year and a lot of amusement/water parks. And its also home to BRTD's favorite congressman.

Nonetheless, I've always felt its a shady place, similar to Las Vegas. It seems whenever you hear in the news about someone masturbating in public or a serial killer/child molester at large, it seems to be in Orlando, or at least Florida (see here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wugmipPvTFE). It seems the type of place where there are a lot of scary transient types. Like many resort areas you have to stay "on the reservation" because once you leave, all bets are off.

Orlando doesn't have 70-80 degree temps year round. Being inland, it gets oppressively hot and humid (even for Florida) in the summer and it's not immune from cold snaps in the winter. It can occasionally drop below freezing and you have the occasional string of days in the 50s and 60s. Sorry, I'm a climate nerd! But yes, the climate is very agreeable if you have a preference for hot to warm weather.

I like the fact that Orange and Osceola counties are trending D, but that's mainly because the region is diversifying, and sadly that seems to have increased racial tensions (Trayvon Martin). Seems to be a divide between the white retirees and the black/hispanic transplants.

I've been to Orlando a few times and it's very Florida in the sense that it's just one big suburban footprint with no real sense of place, so I don't like that too much. And if you're going to live in FL, you should at least live close to the beach. I hate theme parks, but that's a neutral issue for me because if I lived there I just wouldn't go.

While Orlando has some good things going for it, (climate, D trend, entertainment options, proximity to the beach) I would still call it an HP mainly because it seems dull and soulless. I'd much rather live in Miami, the Keys, some little beach town or even Tallahassee.

BTW all of Florida is crazy but the Panhandle is the craziest. It's a weird mix of rednecks, beach bums and drunk college kids, which is a perfect recipe for insanity.

6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Bush Problem: A Myth? on: January 08, 2015, 07:14:37 pm
Seems similar to what happened to Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman and LBJ. They left office deeply unpopular after perceived foreign policy failures, but history was more generous with them. It is yet too early to say that history has spared W, though.

I think Bush's "legacy" has been helped by how incompetent and ineffective Obama turned out to be. A strong or successful Presidency would have provided an immediate contrast to the Bush Presidency. As it is, there's little to no clear difference.

And who has determined this to be a fact, Fox News? That's completely subjective. I'd say passing major healthcare reform where many presidents failed previously is pretty damn effective. But conservatives like to gloss over that because it's not a policy they approve. Every president stumbles on campaign promises and policy objectives, but I'd say Obama has done a lot in the fact of near constant opposition. And I think people will realize that once he leaves office.
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Make your own U.S. regions and divisions on: December 17, 2014, 01:15:40 am
Those of you dividing the south into upper and lower divisions don't understand the south these days. There's much more of a divide between the interior south and the Atlantic south
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems on: December 09, 2014, 06:42:30 pm
GOP has a senate majority due to winning races in states during very good years, same with the dems in 2006 and 2008. There's no way they'll be able to hold onto those seats in blue/purple states forever. Just give it time.
9  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA: Rasmussen: Cassidy+15 on: November 21, 2014, 03:17:10 pm
It's just sad that the South's visceral hatred (and I mean that literally) for Barack Obama and everything they believe he represents is causing voters here to turn against smart, experienced and thoughtful public servants just because of the D next to their name.

Say what you want about Landrieu but I've always gotten the sense that she really cares about Louisiana and the people she represents. Her long career of service to the state should count for something but it seems that the voters' anger has blinded them to the things that really matter in politics. Oh well...
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats left in Romney States/Congressional Districts on: November 21, 2014, 12:40:28 am
Everybody needs to just calm down. The party out of the White House always makes up for it by increasing its numbers in congress. It's just the way it works.

If all of you are so worried about Democrats numbers in the House and the Senate, just hope for the next president to be a Republican. Watch how many of these seats flips in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 07:02:43 pm
Remember guys, a Republican winning the presidency in 2016 (especially a non southern one) could potentially put some southern seats in play in 2018. In 2002 and 2006, Dems wons governorships in Tennessee and Oklahoma, and while I realize the south is transitioning into a one party region, it's not out of the realm of possibility for Democrats to stage a comeback 4 years from now if the political climate is right. Republicans won't have Obama to use as their bogeyman anymore and will actually have to run on their record and the record of the incumbent GOP president. I'm just saying it's possible.

And think of the headlines in 2018: "Northern Republicans distance themselves from President______"

12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 01:33:24 pm
^ Add IL/MD to tier 1 or 2.

I'm interested to see what happens in AK, but I'm not sure they'd try to pick it up, after joing with Walker this cycle.

Totally forgot about Maryland! That might be ahead of New Jersey
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 01:10:24 pm
So here are the top targets for the Democrats over the next several cycles by tier.

Tier 1 (great shot of pickup)

Maryland
New Jersey
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Mexico

Tier 2 (good shot of pickup)

Massachusetts
Illinois
Ohio
Nevada
Maine
Florida
North Carolina

Tier 3 (possible pickup)
Georgia
Arizona
Alaska


I places IL and MA in tier 2 (despite being very blue states) because a string of corrupt Dem governors in IL could keep them out of the mansion for a while if Rauner behaves himself (unlikely though), and because MA is known for electing GOP governors to balance out the Democratic hegemony everywhere else in the state.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 11:46:07 am
After these midterms, there will only be 18 Democratic governors. The GOP has taken over the governorships across the South but they've also been able to win in blue/purple states in their good midterm years (2010, 2014). How and when could they gain a majority again and which states are the top targets?

And what years do you see this happening?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Racism Powered Republican Triumph on: November 12, 2014, 07:12:10 pm
Quote
Well the GOP would have to actually do something for civil rights first to test that little theory of yours, oldies.

Yes, like voting for the Civil Rights Act back in 1964 by a margin80+ Percent.

As for tokenism the score in the south, since reconstruction, is:

Republicans 1:0.

Democrats dominated the south for nearly 100 years and not a single southern state elected a democrat Black man. Not one. Bupkis.

Republicans just don't get it, and they probably never will. Making the claim that your party is champion of civil rights based on a vote that was taken over 50 years ago means nothing.

Go to a barbershop in south Atlanta and use that cute argument. See how long it takes you to get laughed out of the place.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cheer up Dems! We're still winning the long game on: November 05, 2014, 05:02:50 pm

4) The southernization of the GOP is complete, and that's a good thing- Ok, so we've lost all our Southern senators. Fine. The Democrats will no longer have to tip toe around the blue dogs and can finally fully champion progressive causes whole heartedly. Meanwhile, the GOP will keep relying more and more on the white southern male- even as their importance in elections continues to wane. They're basically a regional party now, which makes them slaves to whatever Bubba thinks should happen in Washington.

So yeah, things will be fine.


Senators-elect Ernst, Sullivan, Gardner, Daines, and Rounds would like a word with you about this "complete Southernization" of the GOP.

Southernization refers more to a specific culture than a region.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Cheer up Dems! We're still winning the long game on: November 05, 2014, 04:56:01 pm
There are several reasons why I'm not too upset about what happened last night

1) Obama is still president- True, he won't be able to get much done, but he will still act as an important firewall to whatever insane bills the new GOP congress pushes through. I actually welcome them to try to craft legislation that reflects the demands of their Fox News watching constituents. Only then will Dems who sat out last night be convinced not to make the same mistake again.

2) The GOP didn't learn anything new- They didn't bother to rebrand their party or change their messaging to attract a broader coalition. All they did was manage to get out more of the same old, white, angry midterm electorate with the same old foaming at the mouth rhetoric. The average American doesn't think any more highly of the Republican party now than they did in 2012, but the GOP will become complacent and convince themselves that they're on the right track, only to be sideswiped in future cycles.

3) The next 2 cycles will be VERY tough for them- 2016 will be a Presidential year, and all of the GOP senators who rode the 2010 midterm wave will suddenly be faced with a nationalized race and a more diverse electorate. That will spell trouble for folks like Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, Pat Toomey, Ron Johnson and many more. And even if our next Prez is a Republican (which history suggests is likely), that will help Dems retain their 2012 prizes in 2018, when we get to be the alternative to the party in power.

4) The southernization of the GOP is complete, and that's a good thing- Ok, so we've lost all our Southern senators. Fine. The Democrats will no longer have to tip toe around the blue dogs and can finally fully champion progressive causes whole heartedly. Meanwhile, the GOP will keep relying more and more on the white southern male- even as their importance in elections continues to wane. They're basically a regional party now, which makes them slaves to whatever Bubba thinks should happen in Washington.

So yeah, things will be fine.

18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What happens now? on: November 05, 2014, 11:40:20 am
The Republicans will overreach again and pay the price in 2 years, simple.

And I for one can't wait for that day 2 years from now.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What the hell happened to Nunn? on: November 05, 2014, 01:08:34 am
She did great in Metro Atlanta, and outperformed Obama (08 & 12) in several counties in that region, but she got clobbered in rural Georgia. I figured she would pick up some yellow dogs in south Georgia- instead she wasn't competitive at all.

This confirms my belief that the GA Democratic party needs to rebuild itself through Metro Atlanta, not by trying to reclaim the rural areas it used to win.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't pretty disappointed.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 11:23:39 pm
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?

For me the only bright spot is Henry County, GA- won by Nunn. I've been waiting for it to flip for years
21  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff on: November 01, 2014, 08:04:48 pm
Can someone explain to me why there's such a big discrepancy between the numbers in the primary and runoff elections?? I can't say I'm too knowledgable about Louisiana elections. Will this runoff be similar to the one we will likely see in Georgia?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: October 27, 2014, 10:20:17 pm
Getting closer to election night has me looking through classic local news coverage from the past.  Here are two goldies:

WBS-TV's coverage of the 1992 vote - including an extremely early call for Clinton, prolific discussion on the lottery referendum, and the heated Fowler/Coverdale senate result which was initially projected to be won by Fowler outright.

Also, there's WSB's coverage from the 1980 election - which includes Carter's concession speech, and the erroneous projection that Herman Talmadge had been convincingly reelected over Mack Mattingly, only to loose by a small margin later on in the night.

I hope you guys enjoy! Cheesy

Is it bad that I was more excited to see what Monica Kaufman's hair was going to look like?

For those outside of Georgia who have never heard of her- she is an INSTITUTION!
23  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: CNN/ORC: Carter+2 on: October 24, 2014, 03:30:23 pm
It will be interesting if Georgia really has changed this much.

I don't think it's so much Georgia changing as it is the Dems running good candidates who are a better fit for the electorate here. Carter and Nunn seem to have qualities that every part of the Dem leaning voters like- in different ways they appeal to the young, to educated professionals, to women, to minorities and even to blue collar ancestral democrats.

Their campaigns have also been tougher. Ever since they took a bolder approach to the issues, instead of just trying to be inoffensive moderates, their support has grown tremendously. These Republicans who have controlled our state deserve to be attacked harshly for their policies and values that have sought to turn Georgia back into the fiefdom it used to be.

Fortunately, I think the voters would have realized this eventually without Nunn and Carter but their campaigns opened a lot of eyes.

I wonder how long it will be until Perdue and Deal start blowing the dog whistle at the last minute?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Why have the races been so local this cycle? on: October 14, 2014, 02:24:34 pm
Remember in 2010 when any race for any office in the US was a referendum on Obama, or back in 2012 when we saw something similar because of the Presidential election?

How has this election cycle become so de-nationalized all of a sudden? At the start of the midterm season the media was insistent that it would be a good year for the GOP because of Obama's low approvals, and it still may be, but it's not that simple anymore.

Republicans incumbents in conservative states like Oklahoma, Georgia, Idaho and Kansas are fighting to keep their seats. Meanwhile, Democrats in certain blue states are fighting to seal the deal, like Coakley in Massachusetts (although with her it's a different story).

Just wondering everybody's thoughts on this interesting development...
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Can Democrats make a comeback in Alabama? on: August 10, 2014, 03:23:57 pm
Just spent the summer in Alabama interning at the Southern Poverty Law Center, a very progressive non profit down in Montgomery. The people I worked with had resigned themselves to the idea that the state will never elect progressive politicians and the only way to change things is by suing the pants off of statewide agencies and forcing them to reform their practices.

Alabama and Georgia are pretty similar, except for Atlanta, which has created a larger base of progressives and minorities to give Dems a shot at winning some races there in the future. Alabama, however, doesn't have a large progressive city to outvote rural areas which have become increasingly conservative.

So if you were trying to create a resurgence for the Democratic party in Alabama, how would you do it if you could?
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