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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: My favorite Alabama referendum on: Today at 12:29:35 pm
Well some Black Belt counties are colored in 50%, but all are green.

Yeah, but there are still white people in the black belt counties, sometimes close to a majority. I've looked at this referendum pretty extensively and the level of support for the amendment by county is pretty closely correlated to the percentage of black people.

The only big exceptions are Shelby County, just outside of B'ham which is normally extremely Republican but is also suburban and not quite as southern as the rest of the state. And then there's Huntsville, home to a large space and defense industry.

And to be fair, Gore actually did fairly well in some of the darkest red counties in the NW area of the state.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Hide behind the poll: have you ever taken a picture of your genitals? on: Today at 01:11:02 am
It's fine. Just make sure you're only sending it to a person you trust- and never have the dick and the face in the same picture. That way you won't get Anthony Weinere'd if you ever run for office.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / My favorite Alabama referendum on: Today at 12:40:35 am



This is the statewide vote over an amendment that would have struck out the section of Alabama's constitution that outlawed interracial marriage. Counties in favor are in green. Counties against are in red. 40% of people voted against the amendment- in 2000.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Gerald Ford to City: "Drop Dead" on: April 17, 2014, 11:21:46 pm
Yeah, I checked the results from 72 and 76 and there was a big D swing in NY, but the entire country swung hard as well, since 72 was a R landslide and 76 was a modest D victory. But the NYC swing seems larger.

My guess is that Carter won a lot more of the minority vote but I also think New Yorkers were upset by Ford's refusal to bail out the city. He never said "drop dead" but he was pretty clear in his opposition to the federal bailout. New York was in a terrible state at the time and I'm sure New Yorkers were ready to support anyone who was a little more sympathetic to their problems.

Carter had a big photo op standing in the south Bronx pledging to fight urban decay. Reagan stood in the same spot four years later and accused Carter of doing nothing. NYC is like disney world compared to the state it was in back in the 70s
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Gerald Ford to City: "Drop Dead" on: April 17, 2014, 07:55:36 pm
Anyone old enough to remember this alleged quite from Gerald Ford? Apparently he opposed bailing out NYC when it was dealing with severe financial difficulties. This quote was front page news in 1975, a year before Ford was up for reelection.

Anybody have any data on NYC's swing between 1972 and 1976? I wonder if this comment cost him lots of votes in the city.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: In which region do Kansas, Nebraska, & the Dakotas fit? on: April 14, 2014, 07:09:46 pm
I think the Census Bureau should just create new "great plains" region, because Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas are neither completely midwestern or completely western. The row of states stretching from Oklahoma to N. Dakota is really all its own, although Oklahoma's placement in the region is iffy.

The region has settlement patterns similar to the midwest, especially in the cities. But in terms of topography, geography, politics, climate and culture, it's pretty different. But it's also not like the west either, which in my opinion starts west of the Rockies.
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Black Vote in Elections With Black GOP and White Democratic Candidates on: April 12, 2014, 01:20:16 pm
Maybe black people would be more inclined to vote for black Republicans if the GOP base wasn't fixated on people like Allen West or Ben Carson.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Have the Democrats become the party of the rich? on: April 06, 2014, 11:54:40 pm
It's not that simple to say Dems are the party of the rich and the GOP is the party of the poor, or vice versa. Both parties have support among different classes and income groups. But I will say that the Democrats have done much better among educated professionals in the past 20 years.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Opinion of Kiryas Joel, New York on: April 06, 2014, 12:11:01 am
High poverty...high welfare usage...refusal to speak English or assimilate into American culture...

Why aren't Republicans frothing at the mouth over this place on Fox News? These people are basically doing what conservatives are convinced that all Hispanic/Muslim/Asian immigrants do.

4 main differences:

1. They're white
2. Traditional Values (dress code, pressured to reproduce)
3. They vote heavily for republicans (see above post)
4. Religious schools

So being a mooching 47 Percenter who feels entitled to government help and won't care for their lives is fine as long as you're white and conform to Judeo-Christian values and vote for the right party?

Yes, it's really that simple for the fox news crowd.

Although I will say that the residents do seem like good people who are just looking for a place to practice their extremely unique religion. The problem I have is that they seem to expect the government to subsidize their way of life and even give them special considerations, which is not cool in my opinion. The Amish don't ask for as much from what I hear.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2012: Eastwood vs. Obama on: April 05, 2014, 08:29:38 pm
Chair made some gutsy moves throughout the campaign, but picking Desk as her running mate solidified the base, and it all payed off.

I was hesitant at first due to her floral upholstery, but I really approve of the job Madame Chair is doing and I think the First Urinal is such a classy, supportive spouse.
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Opinion of Kiryas Joel, New York on: April 05, 2014, 08:03:16 pm
Holy hell, the town went 92% McCain!

real 'merica.
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Opinion of Kiryas Joel, New York on: April 05, 2014, 08:02:22 pm
Not really the sort of place that I'd like to live in, but I've no problem with it.

I think also that some of you have an unrealistically dark picture of existence there based on those statistics. So let me be the one to point out that Hasids are not stupid and that while they don't much like the modern world (can't really blame them for that, given certain events) they are more than capable of working out how to use the state to their advantage. It isn't really the poorest place in America, it is only statistically so.

In short, they are crooks.

In 1994, the NY state legislature went against a Supreme Court ruling to give Kyrias Joel its own school district for mentally handicapped children. But since most of the kids don't go to public schools the town just used the funds for the all powerful community synagogue.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most politically "unhappy" county by state on: April 05, 2014, 07:56:28 pm
I think it would also be interesting to pick the county that voted most unlike the rest of the state that also has the most people. I think those counties would be more "unhappy" because they have the most residents that voted against the state winner. So, some examples:

California: Orange County/ 1,122,664 votes /53% Romney

Georgia: Dekalb County/ 306,858 votes/ 78% Obama

Ohio: Butler County/ 170,530 votes/ 62% Romney

Texas: Travis County/ 387,057 votes/ 60% Obama

Colorado: El Paso County/ 290,175 votes/ 59% Romney

West Virginia: Kanawha County/ 75,312 votes/ 55% Romney

It doesn't work as well for every state and a lot of it is up for debate but I think it's interesting to look at.

Interesting, my question for this though, would be are we directly combining the elements of large population and large % margin somehow, or is it just the largest county that voted against the state winner? With the latter I could say Harris County, TX is the unhappiest of the counties in Texas just because its the largest although it only went to Obama by under 1,000 votes and 0.1%.

For the former we could just use county vote margins (winner votes minus loser votes). Since Dallas County, TX has the highest Obama vote margin, it could be considered the most unhappy county. Same with Sioux, IA even though its not the most populated county to vote for Romney.

Yeah, I mean that's why it's tricky. There's two components involved- county population and the percentage that the candidate losing statewide received in that county. I'm sure there's a formula that someone could cook up but I'm not a math person so I just used my judgments for those states. I like your idea of just counting up the total votes though.

Texas was tough because almost every urban county voted for Obama so they're all in the running for most politically unhappy. However, Obama barely won Harris County and Romney broke 40% in Dallas and Bexar counties. Travis County is another large urban county, comparable to the others I mentioned, where Romney got less than 40% so I chose that one.

California was easier because pretty much every county worth mentioning voted for Obama. Orange County really stands out as pretty much the last urban/suburban county in the state to vote for Romney, even if it wasn't a blowout. I'm sure an average resident would describe their county as "politically unhappy" as well.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Opinion of Kiryas Joel, New York on: April 05, 2014, 12:06:54 pm
They want to expand!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2FaX8No8V4

Honestly, the whole community seems unsustainable. They want to double the size, and probably the population in a very short time, but with the poverty rate so high and a large proportion of residents being children, they won't have the tax base or revenue to maintain their city services and eventually the county and the state of New York will get sick of keeping them afloat.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Opinion of Kiryas Joel, New York on: April 05, 2014, 11:55:51 am
The Hasidic capital of America!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiryas_Joel,_New_York

Some stats:
 -youngest median age of any town of its size in the US
-highest poverty rate in the nation
-40% on food stamps
-89% of residents speak Yiddish at home
-Has one of the only religious based school districts in America
-Welcome sign has a community dress code for visitors

Shining example of religious freedom or hasidic hellhole?




16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most politically "unhappy" county by state on: April 05, 2014, 11:48:16 am
I think it would also be interesting to pick the county that voted most unlike the rest of the state that also has the most people. I think those counties would be more "unhappy" because they have the most residents that voted against the state winner. So, some examples:

California: Orange County/ 1,122,664 votes /53% Romney

Georgia: Dekalb County/ 306,858 votes/ 78% Obama

Ohio: Butler County/ 170,530 votes/ 62% Romney

Texas: Travis County/ 387,057 votes/ 60% Obama

Colorado: El Paso County/ 290,175 votes/ 59% Romney

West Virginia: Kanawha County/ 75,312 votes/ 55% Romney

It doesn't work as well for every state and a lot of it is up for debate but I think it's interesting to look at.


17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: San Francisco/Sacramento precinct result maps on: April 04, 2014, 02:59:52 pm
thank you so much! very interesting, it looks like the more asian-american parts of the city (like the sunset district) trended romney, and the more LGBT inner city trended obama. cool map Smiley

Seems a little surprising given the Asian vote nationwide trended hard towards Obama.

ha- David Latterman

Huh

Map created by David Latterman. One letter off from being....

 
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: San Francisco/Sacramento precinct result maps on: April 03, 2014, 04:57:18 pm
ha- David Latterman
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Opinion of these charts ... on: April 03, 2014, 11:33:14 am
ugh, white people
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Gallup: US Seniors have realigned with the Republican Party on: April 02, 2014, 12:20:08 am
Yes, I live in Georgia so I hear this a lot. There are plenty of people in my life who I would go to the moon and back for who think this way, and I know they're good people. But sometimes you need to know where the line is between following your own religious beliefs and using those beliefs to discriminate.

But yeah, this conversation probably needs to go on another thread
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Gallup: US Seniors have realigned with the Republican Party on: April 01, 2014, 11:14:27 pm
US seniors are disproportionately white and don't like the blacks. What a surprise... The sooner they croak, the better for the country.

Now you can be banned, I hope.

So it's okay for people to wish for the death of people b/c of gay rights but not for civil rights?

#logic

Whoa, whoa, whoa. As a born-again Christian, I believe that everyone should be treated with respect and kindness, but on the grounds of my faith I disagree with the legalization of gay marriage. Does that sound like hatred to you? You would actually wish for my death just because I disagree with your views about a life issue?

Of course no sane person wishes for your death. But what does legalizing gay marriage have anything to do with your faith? You can believe what you want and still let others have the same rights. I don't know why that's so hard for evangelicals to understand.

Personally I don't think you're treating people with respect and kindness when you don't think their loving, committed relationship deserves the same recognition just because they're of the same gender, but whatever. 

This, "I'm just a loving Christian who hates the sin, not the sinner" schtick is getting old.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Gallup: US Seniors have realigned with the Republican Party on: March 31, 2014, 03:11:15 pm
Gallup (if you trust them) has confirmed what we've all been saying about the Democrats' problems with senior voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/168083/seniors-realigned-republican-party.aspx

The Democratic party actually had an advantage with those +65 until 2006 but plummeted shortly after and dropped into negative territory by 2010. The drop roughly coincides with Obama's presidency, with Gallup noting that race is a factor for this group of voters.


Honestly, I'm surprised that senior citizens were so Dem up until 2006
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: March 26, 2014, 11:59:17 am
Race: White
Age: 81
Gender: Male
Region: Southerner
Religion: Agnostic/Spiritual
Veteran Status: Yes, Korean War
Occupation: Carpentry until retirement
Family: Married four times, one daughter

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Democratic Party after the 1984 elections: on: March 25, 2014, 02:23:31 pm
It was just a rebuilding period. Political parties are like brands and eventually your brand becomes stale and old fashioned. People can't easily define you and instantly know what you're about, so a competing brand takes your place.

It's like the coke and pepsi wars. Both are old, established brands that constantly compete with eachother. They each have a loyal base but compete for those consumers in the middle who could buy either one. Coke and Pepsi both take turns winning over these folks for certain periods of time through things like exciting new products or catchy advertising.

The Democrats were just in their "new coke" phase in the 80s.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Swing map for 92 and 96 on: March 25, 2014, 02:09:38 pm
Does anybody have access to a national county swing map for the 1996 presidential election compared to 1992? I know from what I can access that Clinton's swing was far from uniform. He really improved in the Northeast and Midwest, which probably contributed to his overall increase in popular vote. He definitely did worse in the rocky mountain and great plains region, and in the south it depends on where you are- LA, WV and SC swung to him but other states swung against. Anyway, just wondering if anybody knew where I could find a map to see how this looks at the county level.
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