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November 23, 2014, 05:28:39 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA: Rasmussen: Cassidy+15 on: November 21, 2014, 03:17:10 pm
It's just sad that the South's visceral hatred (and I mean that literally) for Barack Obama and everything they believe he represents is causing voters here to turn against smart, experienced and thoughtful public servants just because of the D next to their name.

Say what you want about Landrieu but I've always gotten the sense that she really cares about Louisiana and the people she represents. Her long career of service to the state should count for something but it seems that the voters' anger has blinded them to the things that really matter in politics. Oh well...
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats left in Romney States/Congressional Districts on: November 21, 2014, 12:40:28 am
Everybody needs to just calm down. The party out of the White House always makes up for it by increasing its numbers in congress. It's just the way it works.

If all of you are so worried about Democrats numbers in the House and the Senate, just hope for the next president to be a Republican. Watch how many of these seats flips in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 07:02:43 pm
Remember guys, a Republican winning the presidency in 2016 (especially a non southern one) could potentially put some southern seats in play in 2018. In 2002 and 2006, Dems wons governorships in Tennessee and Oklahoma, and while I realize the south is transitioning into a one party region, it's not out of the realm of possibility for Democrats to stage a comeback 4 years from now if the political climate is right. Republicans won't have Obama to use as their bogeyman anymore and will actually have to run on their record and the record of the incumbent GOP president. I'm just saying it's possible.

And think of the headlines in 2018: "Northern Republicans distance themselves from President______"

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 01:33:24 pm
^ Add IL/MD to tier 1 or 2.

I'm interested to see what happens in AK, but I'm not sure they'd try to pick it up, after joing with Walker this cycle.

Totally forgot about Maryland! That might be ahead of New Jersey
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 01:10:24 pm
So here are the top targets for the Democrats over the next several cycles by tier.

Tier 1 (great shot of pickup)

Maryland
New Jersey
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Mexico

Tier 2 (good shot of pickup)

Massachusetts
Illinois
Ohio
Nevada
Maine
Florida
North Carolina

Tier 3 (possible pickup)
Georgia
Arizona
Alaska


I places IL and MA in tier 2 (despite being very blue states) because a string of corrupt Dem governors in IL could keep them out of the mansion for a while if Rauner behaves himself (unlikely though), and because MA is known for electing GOP governors to balance out the Democratic hegemony everywhere else in the state.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 11:46:07 am
After these midterms, there will only be 18 Democratic governors. The GOP has taken over the governorships across the South but they've also been able to win in blue/purple states in their good midterm years (2010, 2014). How and when could they gain a majority again and which states are the top targets?

And what years do you see this happening?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Racism Powered Republican Triumph on: November 12, 2014, 07:12:10 pm
Quote
Well the GOP would have to actually do something for civil rights first to test that little theory of yours, oldies.

Yes, like voting for the Civil Rights Act back in 1964 by a margin80+ Percent.

As for tokenism the score in the south, since reconstruction, is:

Republicans 1:0.

Democrats dominated the south for nearly 100 years and not a single southern state elected a democrat Black man. Not one. Bupkis.

Republicans just don't get it, and they probably never will. Making the claim that your party is champion of civil rights based on a vote that was taken over 50 years ago means nothing.

Go to a barbershop in south Atlanta and use that cute argument. See how long it takes you to get laughed out of the place.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cheer up Dems! We're still winning the long game on: November 05, 2014, 05:02:50 pm

4) The southernization of the GOP is complete, and that's a good thing- Ok, so we've lost all our Southern senators. Fine. The Democrats will no longer have to tip toe around the blue dogs and can finally fully champion progressive causes whole heartedly. Meanwhile, the GOP will keep relying more and more on the white southern male- even as their importance in elections continues to wane. They're basically a regional party now, which makes them slaves to whatever Bubba thinks should happen in Washington.

So yeah, things will be fine.


Senators-elect Ernst, Sullivan, Gardner, Daines, and Rounds would like a word with you about this "complete Southernization" of the GOP.

Southernization refers more to a specific culture than a region.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Cheer up Dems! We're still winning the long game on: November 05, 2014, 04:56:01 pm
There are several reasons why I'm not too upset about what happened last night

1) Obama is still president- True, he won't be able to get much done, but he will still act as an important firewall to whatever insane bills the new GOP congress pushes through. I actually welcome them to try to craft legislation that reflects the demands of their Fox News watching constituents. Only then will Dems who sat out last night be convinced not to make the same mistake again.

2) The GOP didn't learn anything new- They didn't bother to rebrand their party or change their messaging to attract a broader coalition. All they did was manage to get out more of the same old, white, angry midterm electorate with the same old foaming at the mouth rhetoric. The average American doesn't think any more highly of the Republican party now than they did in 2012, but the GOP will become complacent and convince themselves that they're on the right track, only to be sideswiped in future cycles.

3) The next 2 cycles will be VERY tough for them- 2016 will be a Presidential year, and all of the GOP senators who rode the 2010 midterm wave will suddenly be faced with a nationalized race and a more diverse electorate. That will spell trouble for folks like Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, Pat Toomey, Ron Johnson and many more. And even if our next Prez is a Republican (which history suggests is likely), that will help Dems retain their 2012 prizes in 2018, when we get to be the alternative to the party in power.

4) The southernization of the GOP is complete, and that's a good thing- Ok, so we've lost all our Southern senators. Fine. The Democrats will no longer have to tip toe around the blue dogs and can finally fully champion progressive causes whole heartedly. Meanwhile, the GOP will keep relying more and more on the white southern male- even as their importance in elections continues to wane. They're basically a regional party now, which makes them slaves to whatever Bubba thinks should happen in Washington.

So yeah, things will be fine.

10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What happens now? on: November 05, 2014, 11:40:20 am
The Republicans will overreach again and pay the price in 2 years, simple.

And I for one can't wait for that day 2 years from now.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What the hell happened to Nunn? on: November 05, 2014, 01:08:34 am
She did great in Metro Atlanta, and outperformed Obama (08 & 12) in several counties in that region, but she got clobbered in rural Georgia. I figured she would pick up some yellow dogs in south Georgia- instead she wasn't competitive at all.

This confirms my belief that the GA Democratic party needs to rebuild itself through Metro Atlanta, not by trying to reclaim the rural areas it used to win.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't pretty disappointed.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 11:23:39 pm
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?

For me the only bright spot is Henry County, GA- won by Nunn. I've been waiting for it to flip for years
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff on: November 01, 2014, 08:04:48 pm
Can someone explain to me why there's such a big discrepancy between the numbers in the primary and runoff elections?? I can't say I'm too knowledgable about Louisiana elections. Will this runoff be similar to the one we will likely see in Georgia?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: October 27, 2014, 10:20:17 pm
Getting closer to election night has me looking through classic local news coverage from the past.  Here are two goldies:

WBS-TV's coverage of the 1992 vote - including an extremely early call for Clinton, prolific discussion on the lottery referendum, and the heated Fowler/Coverdale senate result which was initially projected to be won by Fowler outright.

Also, there's WSB's coverage from the 1980 election - which includes Carter's concession speech, and the erroneous projection that Herman Talmadge had been convincingly reelected over Mack Mattingly, only to loose by a small margin later on in the night.

I hope you guys enjoy! Cheesy

Is it bad that I was more excited to see what Monica Kaufman's hair was going to look like?

For those outside of Georgia who have never heard of her- she is an INSTITUTION!
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: CNN/ORC: Carter+2 on: October 24, 2014, 03:30:23 pm
It will be interesting if Georgia really has changed this much.

I don't think it's so much Georgia changing as it is the Dems running good candidates who are a better fit for the electorate here. Carter and Nunn seem to have qualities that every part of the Dem leaning voters like- in different ways they appeal to the young, to educated professionals, to women, to minorities and even to blue collar ancestral democrats.

Their campaigns have also been tougher. Ever since they took a bolder approach to the issues, instead of just trying to be inoffensive moderates, their support has grown tremendously. These Republicans who have controlled our state deserve to be attacked harshly for their policies and values that have sought to turn Georgia back into the fiefdom it used to be.

Fortunately, I think the voters would have realized this eventually without Nunn and Carter but their campaigns opened a lot of eyes.

I wonder how long it will be until Perdue and Deal start blowing the dog whistle at the last minute?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Why have the races been so local this cycle? on: October 14, 2014, 02:24:34 pm
Remember in 2010 when any race for any office in the US was a referendum on Obama, or back in 2012 when we saw something similar because of the Presidential election?

How has this election cycle become so de-nationalized all of a sudden? At the start of the midterm season the media was insistent that it would be a good year for the GOP because of Obama's low approvals, and it still may be, but it's not that simple anymore.

Republicans incumbents in conservative states like Oklahoma, Georgia, Idaho and Kansas are fighting to keep their seats. Meanwhile, Democrats in certain blue states are fighting to seal the deal, like Coakley in Massachusetts (although with her it's a different story).

Just wondering everybody's thoughts on this interesting development...
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Can Democrats make a comeback in Alabama? on: August 10, 2014, 03:23:57 pm
Just spent the summer in Alabama interning at the Southern Poverty Law Center, a very progressive non profit down in Montgomery. The people I worked with had resigned themselves to the idea that the state will never elect progressive politicians and the only way to change things is by suing the pants off of statewide agencies and forcing them to reform their practices.

Alabama and Georgia are pretty similar, except for Atlanta, which has created a larger base of progressives and minorities to give Dems a shot at winning some races there in the future. Alabama, however, doesn't have a large progressive city to outvote rural areas which have become increasingly conservative.

So if you were trying to create a resurgence for the Democratic party in Alabama, how would you do it if you could?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Could the Tea Party destroy the Texas Republican Party? on: July 03, 2014, 07:47:12 pm
Isn't another big factor the fact that the economy has done EXTREMELY well in Texas coinciding with the Republicans' rise to power? So perhaps a lot of people see them as excellent stewards of the economy despite the crazy positions they hold, which they're willing to overlook as long as the the jobs keep flowing into the state.

I think it'll take a Texas bust coupled with an increase in hispanic voter turnout to change things.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is it easy or hard to live in your county? on: July 02, 2014, 10:28:57 pm
County where I currently live: Montgomery County, AL: 1,910
 There is such a big gap between rich and poor here, and there seems to be a lot more poor than rich. Bad infrastructure, the public schools seem to be struggling and not a ton of access to healtcare.

County I go to school in: Clarke, County GA: 1,410
It's an awesome place if you're a college student, but there's also a big income and class gap here. But there's decent public transportation, great entertainment options and job growth has been strong lately. Still, it has a long way to for non UGA related residents,

County where I grew up: Coweta County, GA: 728
Since it's an exurb of Atlanta it's attracted a lot of educated professionals, but there's still some poverty here. The public schools are good, lots of good retail and access to all the cultural amenities of a big city. But if you don't have a car you're screwed.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: favorite decades - aesthetically, musically, politically, etc. on: June 17, 2014, 07:15:39 pm
The 2000s will always have a special place in my heart because it was the decade I grew up, but damn it sucked in every way mentioned.

Aesthetically the fashion was really bad. It was like trashy chic- low rise jeans with the crack hanging out, trucker hats, dumpy looking outfits from A&F and Hollister, tube tops, cargo shorts, bleached blond flat meth head hair- I could go on. It's like we forgot how to dress.

Musically it was pretty bad. It sounded fun at the time and there are a few classic songs that came out of it but generally you either had the choice of trashy glam hip hop or crunk, faux punk stuff like Avril Lavigne or Nickelback. The music didn't seem to have any substance

Politically it was Bush, 9/11, terrorism, war, recession and all that fun stuff. It felt like the country was being sucked into a black hole.

My favorite past decade would have to be the 90s, but I think the 2010s is shaping up to be a really good period. The fashion has improved dramatically- clothes are much more tailored and clean looking, but still experimental and fun. The music I think has improved a lot, pop music is getting back to its roots, with the autotune/electro fad finally behind us. This decade has given us so many great artists with amazing talent and television is infinitely better. Amazing scripted TV is back after a long absence and the cable channels and netflix do it way better than network TV ever could. And of course politically, things aint perfect but it feels like we're in a new progressive era which I like Smiley
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If a political scientist from the 1860s and 1870s time traveled to 2014 on: June 01, 2014, 12:13:33 pm
Among the things you guys listed, I think they would be blown away by the country's widespread tolerance and acceptance of homosexuality and gay marriage.

The word "homosexuality" wasn't even formally printed until 1869 so I don't think people back then saw it as a sexual orientation, good or bad, just a perversion known as a "crime against nature." They would probably be shocked by the amount of openly gay people and the amount of politicians who openly support gay rights. I think it would be very tough for them to see gays as a legitimate minority that deserves any kind of political representation.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: All the crap your conservative relatives send you in one convenient place! on: May 29, 2014, 11:18:46 pm
This place has become the Daily Kos, ugh.

Not attacking the Republican party in general, just low information conservatives who circulate ridiculous and offensive lies on social media. It's an epidemic of stupid
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / All the crap your conservative relatives send you in one convenient place! on: May 29, 2014, 10:51:29 pm
I give you /r/forwardsfromgrandma/ on Reddit!This is a subreddit where people post all the cheesy/crappy/vitriolic/borderline racist things that get circulated through social media and email, often by older conservative folks.

http://www.reddit.com/r/forwardsfromgrandma/

I honestly think this is one reason for the vast right wing echo chamber. Many of these "shares" are just blatantly untrue or fabricated, or straight up strawman arguments that confirm all of the irrational hatred for Obama, Democrats, the left, atheists, muslims, minorities and other targets of the far right. And it seems like older people are more likely to accept it at face value because of naivety about stuff online and the fact that is supports their worldview.

Some common themes:

-Stories or shares that portray muslims as violent extremists hell-bent on converting the world to Islam

-social media shares that encourage people to like posts in order to "stop the flag from being changed"or "let kids keep saying the pledge of allegiance" as if any of this is actually threatened

-a weird fascination with telling people to pull up their pants. Definitely coded racism.

- shares that blast the media for "worshipping" Michael Sam. These are particularly popular now since they let the users vent their racism and homophobia at the same time!

-"Back in my day" posts that seem to wax nostalic for corporal punishment most of all.

- Obama is somehow a nazi, socialist, muslim, atheist, gay, black, communist, ineffective, powerful dictator all at the same time.

-blind worship of the military

-bad photoshop.



So Enjoy!
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What is the most Democratic county with a significant GOP area? on: May 21, 2014, 06:31:09 pm
Fulton County, GA is up there.

The city of Atlanta and the majority black suburbs in South Fulton County are very strong for Democrats, but the northern third of the county is known for being very conservative. There has been a long running secession movement in North Fulton County since that area used to be its own county before merging with Fulton during the great Depression. Now that the area is wealthy they've decided they don't need Fulton anymore...
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I lost an election, AMA on: May 21, 2014, 02:32:48 pm
Sorry you lost buddy. I wasn't really following the campaign as closely as I should but I liked Tim Denson. I felt his vision for Athens lined up more with my views, but at the same time Nancy Denson is able to run on the "job creation" platform which resonated more with people, especially in a town like Athens that desperately needs good jobs.

Still impressed that you guys got 40% of the vote, though! You should be very proud of that.
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