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76  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Nevada's Repuplican Gov: State SSM ban 'no longer defensible in court' on: February 14, 2014, 12:59:54 am
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If you're not a troll and you're telling the truth, then I honestly feel very sorry for you. You should be proud of who you are, not ashamed. And you ARE normal.

Homosexuality is just defined as same-sex attraction. It has nothing to do with 'who I am' - there is way more to life than just talking about your sexuality....

which is why people shouldn't treat homosexuality as anything strange. It's just how some people are, and why you shouldn't feel ashamed of who you're attracted to.
77  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Nevada's Repuplican Gov: State SSM ban 'no longer defensible in court' on: February 14, 2014, 12:55:48 am
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Why are you arguing against gay marriage if you are a gay man?



Because I happen to believe marriage is a unique institution between one husband and one wife. And I don't believe that homosexuality should be celebrated. It is something I am ashamed of, not proud of. I want to be normal.

If you're not a troll and you're telling the truth, then I honestly feel very sorry for you. You should be proud of who you are, not ashamed. And you ARE normal.
78  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Judge declares SSM ban in VA illegal on: February 14, 2014, 12:52:05 am
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That's kind of happening state-by-state now.  DOMA was overturned, too, so there is no universal 'definition' of marriage.

Sure, and some states (Illinois, Maryland, Washington) et al were kind enough to allow the people, either through a public vote, or a legislative body to add to the definition of marriage.

They didn't create a "Fundamental right" to marry whomever you want, they added to their definition. It may not be something I'm on board with, but it's the way the republic works, and I'm not going to kvetch about it.

When a liberal judge with an agenda creates a right in the constitution that never existed, however, that's when I do object.

Dude, didn't you admit you were gay on a thread a while back? Go home troll
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did the hippies vote for Humphrey? on: February 14, 2014, 12:48:32 am
I have a better question. How do the self described hippies of the late 60s and early 70s vote now? My guess is about evenly split today. Hippies were drawn to progressive causes and I expect a lot of them to still think that way. But at the same time I think a lot of them were just going through a rebellious phase and turned more conservative by the late 70s.

1968: 10/60/30 Nixon/Humphrey/None

1972: 10/90 Nixon/McGovern

1976: 30/60/10 Ford/Carter/None

1980: 30/40/15/15 Reagan/Carter/Anderson/None

1984: 50/50  Reagan/Mondale

1988: 45/55 Bush/Dukakis

1992: 30/40/30 Bush/Clinton/Perot

1996: 35/50/15  Dole/Clinton/Perot

2000: 50/50 Bush/Gore

2004: 55/45 Bush/Kerry (first time the R wins this group)

2008: 50/50 McCain/Obama

2012: 55/40/5 Romney/Obama/None

How does this group (comprised of the same individuals) go from 35% Republican in 1996 to 55% Republican in 2012? 

Or how does a demographic that was split 50/50 in an extremely lopsided election (1984) stay around 50/50 in a extremely close election (2000)?

Because this group became more conservative through time. That was the point I was trying to make. Disappointment with the counterculture movement might have swung some of these people more to the right, as well as becoming more conservative with age.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did the hippies vote for Humphrey? on: February 13, 2014, 03:43:39 pm
I have a better question. How do the self described hippies of the late 60s and early 70s vote now? My guess is about evenly split today. Hippies were drawn to progressive causes and I expect a lot of them to still think that way. But at the same time I think a lot of them were just going through a rebellious phase and turned more conservative by the late 70s.

1968: 10/60/30 Nixon/Humphrey/None

1972: 10/90 Nixon/McGovern

1976: 30/60/10 Ford/Carter/None

1980: 30/40/15/15 Reagan/Carter/Anderson/None

1984: 50/50  Reagan/Mondale

1988: 45/55 Bush/Dukakis

1992: 30/40/30 Bush/Clinton/Perot

1996: 35/50/15  Dole/Clinton/Perot

2000: 50/50 Bush/Gore

2004: 55/45 Bush/Kerry (first time the R wins this group)

2008: 50/50 McCain/Obama

2012: 55/40/5 Romney/Obama/None
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Democratic Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016 on: February 05, 2014, 11:48:48 pm
The curious thing is it should be much harder to do a regional campaign today than at most any other time in American history and yet we are seeing regionalism matter more in elections now than 30-50 years ago.  The Latino vote in the Southwest has something to do with this, but in the era of Google, no one should be able to get away with different campaign messages in different states.  When everyone is watching the same campaign on TV or reading about it on the internet, one would expect uniform national swings. 

The X factor here could be turnout and the difference between emphasizing it in one state and ignoring it in another safe state.  For example the gap between OH and PA was the lowest in a long time in 2012, perhaps because Obama went all out in OH and largely ignored PA while Romney gave it some late attention.

If campaigns are getting really good at fine-tuning turnout, we should expect the electoral college to diverge more and more from the popular vote in future elections.  The next 1876 may not be far off.

I think you have it backwards. People used to all watch the same campaign on TV. But now with the growth of cable and internet news/commentary, people can get political news that aligns with their own perspective, be it regional, religious, racial or occupational. Obama and Romney both put out ads on the internet tailored to different types of people in different regions, imbedding them on the unique sites they visit. This is how Obama could run an Ohio campaign and a totally different Florida campaign.
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Gore do so well in NY NJ and CT on: February 04, 2014, 02:16:54 pm
Bush was perceived as a more southern, rural type

Which is hilarious when you think about it.

Not really. Gore might have started off with a more typical rural southern upbringing but he had been in DC for several decades at that point. Whenever a politician spends that much time in DC their constituents start to feel like they're not as tied to their roots anymore. Bush, on the other hand, certainly wasn't born in a log cabin in a swamp (neither was Gore) but he had spent decades in Texas and was seen as more tied to the south than Gore was. Not to mention his political platform was more in line with the majority of southerners.

I mean, Elizabeth Warren grew up in Oklahoma but she has spent so much time in Massachusetts that nobody thinks she's southern.
83  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Allen West "disturbed" by Coke ad that includes languages other than English on: February 03, 2014, 09:38:25 pm
Some people who are white, conservative and woking class already feel pretty beaten down by society so they cling to the few things they have left that supposedly make them better than others- being white and native english speakers. I almost feel like they get some sort of pleasure from dumping all over brown immigrants because it's a rare opportunity to feel superior
84  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Coca-Cola makes cute ad, racist far-right idiots lose their [inks] on: February 03, 2014, 07:54:38 pm
I don't understand why everyone is assuming that the ad was pushing multilingualism. What it was promoting is diversity, which should be obvious to anyone with a brain.

And can someone explain to me why conservatives are so paranoid about English not being the official language? Obviously these people don't live in the real America because even in diverse places you are going to need a lingua franca, and that is going to be English. Even in a place like Los Angeles County, where white people are a minority, the majority of people don't know Spanish. There may be certain communities where just Spanish, or Mandarin is spoken, but the community at large is still going to need English to communicate. The only place in America where that would be different would be Puerto Rico, if it were to ever become a state. And it probably won't for this very reason.

I've actually always wondered about that. Los Angeles County is almost majority Hispanic, many of them recent or first generation immigrants, so I always assumed that knowing at least a little bit of Spanish was necessary to live in LA. I've also heard from others about how prevalent Spanish is there, at least compared to the south. But you're saying English is still clearly dominant?

Anyway, I'm going there in March so I guess I'll see for myself.
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Coca-Cola makes cute ad, racist far-right idiots lose their [inks] on: February 03, 2014, 04:27:18 pm
I noticed reading some of these tweets elsewhere that a lot of posters constantly invoked "shame" on coca cola, as in "shame on you coca cola, I'll never buy coke again." I hear the shame angle from a lot of other conservative friends of mine on facebook. What is with the conservative mindset and its focus on shame?
86  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Actor Phillip Seymour Hoffman dead at 46 on: February 02, 2014, 02:36:17 pm
From an apparent drug overdose

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/movies/philip-seymour-hoffman-actor-dies-at-46.html?_r=0

He never became a huge megastar, but he was one of the most awarded and celebrated actors of the last 15 years. He was amazing in everything from Boogie Nights to Capote to Doubt. He had amazing range and really brought you into his characters.

Again, an incredibly talented and creative individual brought down by his own demons.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Why did Gore do so well in NY NJ and CT on: January 31, 2014, 11:03:59 pm
Gore seems to have lost the least ground from Clinton 96 in those three states compared to the rest of the country. In a lot of counties in the tri state area, he achieved Obama '08 levels of support but in a neutral presidential year. Gore is from Tennessee so I can't imagine what kind of appeal he had to do so well up there.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: January 31, 2014, 04:10:17 pm
Could there be much political fallout from the snowstorm? 63% in Atlanta disapprove of Deal's handling of it.

at first I didn't think so but the coverage has been brutal and it looks like the Georgia Democratic Party is looking to pounce. It definitely won't be issue #1 during the fall campaign but it has the potential to cost Deal some votes, especially in metro Atlanta.
89  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Most Liberal Possible District by State on: January 31, 2014, 12:24:37 pm
Do you mean liberal as in ideology or liberal as in support for Democrats? Not all Democrats are liberals. I could probably create an +80% Obama district out of south Atlanta and some surrounding suburbs because of the high percentage of African Americans but a +65% Obama district based in midtown Atlanta, Decatur, Druid Hills and gentrified areas of the city would still probably be more liberal.
90  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Deadly Ice storm turns Atlanta into frozen tundra on: January 30, 2014, 12:51:28 am
As for Deal, I just saw him on local evening news brushing off responsibility by saying "You can't predict mother nature"? I was like lol go carter but really I don't see this being a huge impact on the race unless something even worse happens or Deal says something just downright awful/insensitive.

Yeah, as bad as this is, people will forget about it by election time. Republican voters here in Georgia always find a way to pin the blame on someone else. Everything in Georgia is always Obama's fault, even though anybody who actually has any power in this state is a Republican. I'm sure those stranded motorists are blaming Obama as we speak.
91  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Deadly Ice storm turns Atlanta into frozen tundra on: January 30, 2014, 12:48:11 am
bahahahahahahah

You're seriously laughing about this disaster?

I think he's laughing at this joke of an "ice storm" being called a "frozen tundra". Some people at my work were laughing looking at the pictures today. I've driven in well over twice as bad as that and still made it to work on time.

Good for you. You're from Minnesota, right? Of course you are more skilled at driving in snow and ice. If Minnesotans didn't have that skill they would be shut ins for about half of the year. But how well do you think people up there would handle several days of 100 degree heat with high humidity? What about hurricanes barreling through the twin cities, dropping several inches of rain and hurricane force winds? People in the south deal with that all the time and honestly, when we hear northerners complaining about heatwaves we're just as perplexed as to why you can't handle it.

Sorry for the rant, I've just been very disappointed in people's reactions to the situation in Georgia now. The "those stupid southerners can't even handle an inch of snow" comments are so inappropriate right now considering the hell that some people had to go through. Babies were delivered on the highway, people abandoned their cars and slept in restaurants and grocery stores and little kids had to sleep in their school gymnasiums.

We can certainly have a conversation about what went wrong and how we can avoid this in the future but I hope everyone refrains from jokes.
92  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Deadly Ice storm turns Atlanta into frozen tundra on: January 29, 2014, 10:40:06 pm
please don't laugh guys. I had family members who were stuck in their cars for hours just trying to go a few miles down the road. It sounds ridiculous, since it wasn't a lot of snow, but we were caught off guard this time. The snow was supposed to stay south of Atlanta but by the time we got hit, everybody was already at work or school and tried to leave at the same time. Combine that with nobody knowing how to drive in snow and no DOT preparation like salt or sand, and it made for a huge disaster.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: January 27, 2014, 02:46:29 pm
http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/medical-marijuana-bill-on-its-way/nc4Dt/?icmp=ajc_internallink_textlink_homepage

A bill legalizing medical marijuana is on its way to the floor of the Georgia general assembly. Rep. Allen Peake (R) of Macon is introducing the bill.

As much as I loathe the Republican dominance here in Georgia, the Republicans do seem to be listening to public opinion when it comes to increasing tolerance of mind altering substances. First they vote to allow alcohol purchases on Sunday, catapulting Georgia into the 20th century, and now medical marijuana. It probably helps that recent polls show most georgians firmly in support of this. Now on to complete legalization, but I doubt they would ever go that far.

Could these laissez faire policies help statewide Republicans with young Georgians who aren't totally devoted to the GOP?
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What happens to Illinois without Obama? on: January 21, 2014, 01:01:26 am
Despite the strong conservative base in Illinois, there is no way we can win Illinois any time soon, unless we can better court urban voters.

What strong conservative base? The Democrats have a strong liberal base in Chicago and much of the suburbs, while the Republican vote comes from dispersed voters across the rural parts of the state (just like every other strong Democrat state).

People always underestimate Democratic strength in the Midwest just because it doesn't touch an ocean. The Midwest has a lot of Democratic strength, and the center of it is most certainly Illinois.

The midwest is just very different from the urban east and west coasts because of where the voters are.
In states like California, Oregon, Washington, New York, NJ and PA Democrats are mainly concerned with running up their margins in urban areas to win, because those states have a classic urban/rural political divide. It's different in a lot of midwestern states where the cities alone can't carry the entire state. Democrats can't carry Minnesota without the iron range, or Wisconson without the rural farm counties or even Michigan without the UP. To my knowledge Illinois is really the only midwestern state where Democrats can win with just one big urban area. 
95  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: First Election Campaign You Have a Memory Of on: January 20, 2014, 05:09:01 pm
1996. I was at the Atlanta Olympic Park and Bob Dole stopped by for a campaign visit. My dad put me on his shoulders so I could reach out and shake his hand in the crowd. I had no idea who he was but my dad thrust my arm out to meet his hand. I made contact but he didn't grip it so it felt like a dead fish. And remember, I'm a six year old kid who has no idea who this guy is, why so many people are gathering around him, and why my father wants me to shake his hand. All in all it was a very strange experience.

What's even stranger is that my dad voted for Clinton.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What happens to Illinois without Obama? on: January 20, 2014, 04:07:13 pm
You can't really compare GA, CA, TX and AR to Illinois when it comes to the home state effect. All of those states were either undergoing political realignments or demographic changes. Illinois seems to be in more of a holding pattern. Cook county and the inner suburbs are trending D while the rural areas are trending R, so they kind of seem to cancel eachother out.

I suspect the next Dem nominee will hold their ground in the urban areas but fall further in some rural areas, doing a few points worse than Obama 2012.

55-43
97  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: TIME has this weird political personality quiz and I need you guys to take it. on: January 19, 2014, 12:49:46 pm
I got 78% liberal. Sounds about right.

The problem with most political quizzes is that they just ask you questions about policy and you pretty much know how you should respond depending on your stated affiliation, so your answers are primed.

Outside of politics, liberalism and conservatism also reflect our everyday values, so I guess this is what this quiz is trying to predict. I mean, don't you think there are a lot of people who claim to be liberal or conservative because they feel pressure from people around them to lean a certain way but might actually be the opposite?
98  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: I think I know why Western PA has trended to the right on: January 16, 2014, 11:37:30 pm
This is often overlooked. Sometimes regions trend over time not because of natives changing their politics, but because of transplants with different politics moving in. Forsyth County, GA for example has become even more Republican, despite becoming less southern and more diverse at the same time. I chalk it up to "blue state refugees" moving in who see the low taxes and suburban sprawl as the promised land.
I know it's factually true, but referring to Forsyth County as diverse amuses me.

haha, well it can only get MORE diverse when it started out as 100% white

And for the record- it's over 7% Asian now which is very high for a county in the south.
99  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: I think I know why Western PA has trended to the right on: January 16, 2014, 11:47:15 am
This is often overlooked. Sometimes regions trend over time not because of natives changing their politics, but because of transplants with different politics moving in. Forsyth County, GA for example has become even more Republican, despite becoming less southern and more diverse at the same time. I chalk it up to "blue state refugees" moving in who see the low taxes and suburban sprawl as the promised land.
100  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should gay marriage be legalized by Supremes or do you prefer state-by-state? on: January 16, 2014, 11:34:59 am
The Supremes broke up years ago and I don't think Diana Ross is sane enough these days to make such an important decision.
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