Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 29, 2014, 01:41:49 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 70
76  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe your county's political/demographic history on: March 14, 2014, 05:48:03 pm
Clarke County, GA. Not born here but I've lived here for the past 6 years and consider it my home. The county is home to Athens, GA which is home to the University of Georgia. Because it's a college town, Athens is more diverse and liberal than the rest of the state, especially the surrounding area. Most people see it as an island of (non atlas) blue in a sea of (non atlas) red. It wasn't always so far left though. UGA used to be your typical southern school more like Auburn, Alabama and Ole Miss. It wasn't integrated until the early 60s and even after that it remained pretty "old south." That changed around the 80s though when the Athens music scene took off. Bands like REM and the B52s really took off around that time and Athens gained a reputation as great music city, attracting more artsy, liberal residents and students. You can see the change in election results. Clarke goes quickly moves to the left of Georgia in the 80s and 90s. I'll start with 1984 since the favorite son effect wears off by then in GA.

1984
Clarke: 53% Reagan 47% Mondale
Georgia: 60% Reagan 40% Mondale

1988
Clarke: 48% Bush 48% Dukakis (Dukakis wins by 4 votes)
Georgia: 59% Bush 40% Dukakis

1992
Clarke: 42% Bush 43% Clinton
Georgia: 36% Bush 53% Clinton

1996
Clarke: 56% Clinton 38% Dole
Georgia: 46% Clinton 47% Dole

2000
Clarke: 52% Gore 41% Bush
Georgia: 55% Bush 43% Gore

2004
Clarke: 58% Kerry 40% Bush (almost a total flip from statewide margin)
Georgia: 58% Bush 41% Kerry

2008
Clarke: 65% Obama 34% McCain
Georgia: 52% McCain 47% Obama

2012
Clarke: 63% Obama 34% Romney
Georgia: 53% McCain 45% Obama


So since 1984 Clarke has gone from being 14 points more D than the state to 27 points more D in 2012
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Movie on LA Mayor Tom Bradley on: March 14, 2014, 04:40:57 pm
Yeah that would actually be a good movie. But unfortunately biopics are usually pretty expensive to produce if you want them to be good and a movie about Tom Bradley would probably only appeal to Angelenos of a certain age and politicos like us. I don't think an average moviegoer would be jazzed up about seeing a movie based on his life.

As for the actor, I don't know. All the ones you listed don't really capture his essence. I feel like Terrence Howard could maybe pull it off if he gained some weight and applied some aging makeup.
78  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kevin Swanson; Disney Movie "Frozen" promoting bestiality,homosexuality on: March 14, 2014, 04:32:17 pm
Let it go man...

damn, I was just about to say that. You beat me to it
79  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Politics aside- would you rather live in a blue state or a red state? on: March 04, 2014, 12:32:56 am
Keep in mind that we are generally talking about the difference between 60/40 one way and 40/60 the other way.  Or 2:1 in the most extreme (UT,OK,HI,VT) cases.  That leaves a substantial base of people who agree and disagree with you to interact with.  You can still find an vegan society in West Texas or a megachurch in San Francisco if you really want to.

But you forget that in a lot of states, like the south, political divisions fall along racial lines. if you're a white, educated liberal in a small town in the deep south most people who share your partisan loyalties will be black people who still probably don't have much in common with you. They're also more likely to be more religious and socially conservative than you.
80  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How Democratic is your name? on: March 03, 2014, 02:33:04 pm
280 registered voters with my name, which is honestly more than I expected

20,654th most common name

34% Rep 66% Dem
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crossing the 400 EV mark... on: March 02, 2014, 11:16:47 am
I am shocked at how Democratic West Virginia is at the state level (the Democrats have the Governor, State Senate, and House of Reps), yet it's so Republican federally.

Anyway, this is very interesting.

Yes, I find it fascinating as well. But you have to remember that for a long time the types of Democrats elected in WV were totally different from national Democrats. In 2010 Joe Manchin ran an ad shooting a copy of the ACA
82  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Politics aside- would you rather live in a blue state or a red state? on: March 01, 2014, 11:36:37 am
Hockey, Literally all of those pictures except the first one could have been in California
83  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Politics aside- would you rather live in a blue state or a red state? on: February 28, 2014, 07:02:04 pm
The only thing a red state would offer me are more churches, since I'm pretty religious.

Otherwise, I think the benefits of a blue state outweigh the cons of it and the benefits of a red state.

I've also recently discovered this winter that I can't handle temperatures under 40 degrees, so I'd prefer the state to be in the South.

Wow, Floridians are so brave in the face of a bitterly cold winter.

Obviously Georgians proved ourselves this year too....
84  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why are conservatives always joking about murdering liberals? on: February 28, 2014, 11:18:41 am
Conservative humor isn't as appealing to the masses. Hear me out: Conservatives seek to maintain policies that are traditional and dominant in society, while liberals seek to advance policy that helps the underdog- whether they be poor people, minorities, gay people etc.

So when conservatives make jokes about people in society that are already getting the short end of the stick, it comes across as mean spirited. Comedy works better when it's the underdog making fun of the powerful people, which lends itself better to liberals.

Have you ever heard a comedian joke about how rich or successful or powerful they are? No, it's always about how they're poor, or hopelessly single, or a minority.
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Judge rules SSM legal in Kentucky on: February 28, 2014, 01:42:12 am
We are wise to see whether the decision is upheld. Appeals could eventually go to the US Supreme Court.

Nothing in the Constitution bans SSM. We are going to discover soon whether states with SSM have the vile consequences that gay-baiters say will happen.

(Really I think that SSM will promote domestic tranquility and that states with SSM will get more business).

They've had gay marriage in Massachusetts for 10 years.  That seems like confirmation enough that there are no negative consequences from marriage equality.

It also had Romney as Governor for 4 years.  Does that mean there are no negative consequences to having him in charge? Wink

The difference is that I can point to a slew of mistakes Mitt Romney made as governor, but nobody can find any negative effect of same sex marriage in Massachusetts.  I lived in Massachusetts during the tail end of the Romney term and he was pretty universally disliked as far as I could tell.

That's because by the end of his term it became abundantly clear to anybody with a brain that all he cared about was taking the next step to the White House. He hardly spent any time in the state and he suddenly became severely conservative.
86  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Politics aside- would you rather live in a blue state or a red state? on: February 26, 2014, 01:56:48 pm
You guys keep talking about Montana like it's a red state. is it though? It pretty much is at the presidential level, but elects a lot of Dems at the state level, and those are the people who actually make state laws that would affect quality of life there.
87  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Politics aside- would you rather live in a blue state or a red state? on: February 26, 2014, 01:38:59 pm
I think Minnesota would be the best of both worlds for me. As a blue state, it has better access to education, healthcare and equal protection but the cost of living isn't ridiculously high either. It has the twin cities, which aren't NYC and LA but still have great cultural offerings, but at the same time there are a lot of quaint small towns that seem to offer the simple life people look for in red states. Religion is important but it doesn't dictate everyone's life which is also a nice compromise.

The only downside is the weather. 
88  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Politics aside- would you rather live in a blue state or a red state? on: February 26, 2014, 12:08:39 pm
Forget about wanting to live in a state where politicians and policies you support are dominant. There are also a lot of quality of life indicators that correspond generally to red and blue states. Again, these are GENERAL trends and you can find exceptions to all of them.

Blue State Pros:
-more government services
-more minority protections
-better public transportation
-more urban (cultural options)
-better access to healthcare
-better educated

Blue State Cons:
-higher taxes
-housing more expensive
-more urban (overcrowding)
-more regulations
-tend to have more stagnant growth rates


Red State Pros
-lower taxes
-less regulation
-more rural (nature)
-more religious (if you're into that kind of thing)
-tend to have higher growth rate

Red State Cons
-less services
-less public transportation
-lower access to healthcare
-more rural (isolation)
-less minority protections
-less educated
89  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Florida vs. New York on: February 24, 2014, 05:24:10 pm
Also, NC will pass MI in the next few weeks.

And Georgia should be well past 10 million by now!
90  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Quinnipiac: OH voters support gay marriage, abortion, medical/recreational pot on: February 24, 2014, 12:36:21 pm
So, it looks like out of people who have an opinion about the big three social issues (abortion, pot and gays), it splits about 55/45, which has been where the needle has been in the last 20 some odd years. The only difference is that marijuana and gay marriage has lost their "WtF" factor. At this point, it could be where they settle if abortion or acknowledging evolution is any indication.

The needle may not have moved much in 20 years on abortion, but there's definitely been a big change on the other two issues! Ohio passed their gay marriage ban in 2004 with almost 62% of the vote and a decade later public opinion has shifted 15 points! And if you consider Ohio to mirror national public opinion you can see the gallup marijuana survey showing 64% against legalization around 2003-2004. Again, another huge shift.

Gay marriage and pot will probably continue to find more and more support as it's essentially a generational issue and all it takes is people getting over their hangups. But abortion and capital punishment will probably always divide the country as the arguments on both sides continue to be really strong and equally resonate with people.
91  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN to end 'Piers Morgan Live' on: February 23, 2014, 10:14:58 pm
Uh, no to all of that. Larry King was a much better interviewer. He asked straight forward questions and let his guests speak. Piers makes it all about him. Also, as a progressive I hate the way he gave right wingers ammo during the gun control debate. He was the perfect liberal foil for all the gun toting NRA members.

I guess it's a matter of taste.  The fact that King was so straight forward and blunt with his questions is why I was never his biggest fan.  I seldom felt a connection between him and his guests.  Piers was obviously too partisan for CNN and I would've preferred he didn't incorporate gun control in every other show of his, but I think he had something that King lacked.  I for one am hoping they find someone who at least shares his exuberance.

I might be older than you but I grew up watching Larry King Live. It was the only thing my parents would let me stay up for past 9 when he had a good guest. He was straight forward and kind of aloof when he was doing a serious interview, but he had good rapport with some of his celebrity guests. I think you might not have seen the "connection" because Larry King didn't fawn all over guests like Piers  .(have you seen his interview with Barbra Streisand? He might as well have been licking her gucci bootstraps)

I think Piers' style of tabloid journalism is just a better fit in the UK, or maybe even on an Entertainment Tonight type show here in the US. But he just dragged down CNN during his time there.
92  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN to end 'Piers Morgan Live' on: February 23, 2014, 09:55:52 pm
Uh, no to all of that. Larry King was a much better interviewer. He asked straight forward questions and let his guests speak. Piers makes it all about him. Also, as a progressive I hate the way he gave right wingers ammo during the gun control debate. He was the perfect liberal foil for all the gun toting NRA members.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Can politicians still be "honest" with people when things aren't good and win? on: February 23, 2014, 09:15:42 pm
Jimmy Carter tried that and it backfired horribly
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Florida Trends: Key Counties on: February 23, 2014, 08:41:56 pm
It is interesting that the state has a whole has remained pretty stable while some major counties have shifted dramatically.  Guess Florida is large and diverse enough to be a pretty good reflection of the country as a whole.

Yes it is truly a melting pot of insane people from all over this nation and the world.
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Florida Trends: Key Counties on: February 23, 2014, 07:35:17 pm
As one of the most important swing states in the nation, I thought it would be interesting to look at the trends in some key Florida counties, and the reason for their trends. Any Florida peeps are welcome to jump in.

Miami-Dade: The largest county in the state. Historically lean D over the past 20 years. Shifted hard D in 2012. Are younger Cubans in the county moving away from the Republicans?

Palm Beach County: Has been a strong D county for decades but is quickly trending R. Romney was the first R candidate to get over 40% since 1988. Could be a sign of the older voters becoming more R.

Sumter County: An old person Oasis, thanks to The Villages. It has become extremely Republican through the years. A good microcosm of the white senior citizen vote.

Orange/Osceola County: These two counties in the greater Orlando area often shift together in elections. In the 80s and 90s they were strong R, in the Bush era they were swing counties and in the Obama era they are very strong D. Good for Dems as well because they are two of the fastest growing counties in Florida. Growing diversity is probably the main reason for the shift.

Volusia County: This county always fascinated me as it is a coastal county in Northern Florida with some southern influences (Daytona) that still voted D from 1992 to 2008. However, Romney won the county in 2012. Does anybody know the reason behind the R swing?

Duval County: Home of Jacksonville, probably the most culturally southern major city in Florida. For years the county was pretty safe R but has been trending D since around 2000. Obama came within two points of winning there in 2008. Possibly the black population is increasing?

Broward County: Surprisingly stable, considering its size and demographic transformation. Since the 90s it has been very reliably D and remains so today. My guess is that the olds who are becoming more R are being counterbalanced by minorities and immigrants becoming more D.





This analysis seems spot on.

What about Tampa though, I think the counties in and around Tampa are the most critical going forward, if they start voting like the Orlando counties the GOP is going to have serious problems.

Yes, I should have added Pinellas and Hillsborough. It was just hard for me to comment on them because the Tampa Bay area is the only major region in Florida I haven't visited. What I can see is that the two counties aren't trending as hard to the left as Orange/Osceola. Somebody from Florida is welcome to add their input.

What I do know is that Tampa is sort of the gateway to SW Florida, which is very Republican, while Orlando is more of a gateway to dark blue SE Florida. Tampa is whiter than Orlando too, so I think for that reason the region will stay swingy for a while.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Urban core counties that swung and trended to Romney on: February 23, 2014, 06:54:53 pm
Even though Romney cut into Obama's 2008 margins in most areas of the country, Obama seemed to improve in most urban counties. But there were some where Romney made significant gains. Here are a few that I found and possible explanations for the swing.

Cook County, IL (Chicago): Statewide evaporation of favorite son effect, even in Chicago

Travis County, TX (Austin): This one was surprising. I thought Austin was going to continue to trend D

Jackson County, MO (Kansas City): Probably because Obama didn't bother to contest Missouri this time around.

Marion County, IN (Indianpolis): Similar to Missouri. Obama gave up in IN this time around and a drop off was inevitable, even in the cities.

Clark County, NV (Las Vegas): Last time I checked the housing market was still sh**ty in Nevada. Obama's '08 promises probably resonated the most in Las Vegas and more people were underwhelmed four years later.

Salt Lake County, UT (SLC): Mormon on the ticket

Fulton County, GA (Atlanta): I'm from Georgia and this kind of baffles me. My only guess is that the northern suburbs (which constitute the upper third of Fulton County) swung hard to Romney.



97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Harris County, Texas on: February 23, 2014, 06:00:42 pm
Harris county has Houston, which is strong D, but it also encompasses most of Houston's suburbs which are very Republican. So when you have a Democratic city with some equally large Republican suburbs you get about an equal number of Rep and Dem votes.

Harris used to lean R though, which I think has changed because the county as a whole has become a lot more diverse. Whites are only 32% of the population, so it's surprising that Republicans do as well as they do there.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Trend Map is more revelant for 2016 Presidential Election:2004/2012 or 2008/2012 on: February 23, 2014, 04:36:20 pm
Hey, yeah, so instead of only Walker, which some of you here only test, let's try some other Republican candidates, maybe?

Okay: Rand Paul vs Clinton

Clinton wins by 8 points (My dream scenario)

National swing is about 4 points to the left

States that trend D:
Tennessee
Missouri
Arkansas
West Virginia


States that trend R:
Most of the northeast
Kentucky
Plains states
Colorado
California

99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Florida Trends: Key Counties on: February 23, 2014, 04:17:28 pm
Seminole County: An old person Oasis, thanks to The Villages. It has become extremely Republican through the years. A good microcosm of the white senior citizen vote.

I think you mean Sumter here; that's where The Villages is.

Also, while white seniors certainly are a conservative demographic, the sort of people who move to The Villages are not really a representative sample of seniors overall.

Corrected, thanks! So what kind of people tend to move into The Villages? I've only drove through it, never met anybody who lives there.
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Florida Trends: Key Counties on: February 23, 2014, 01:35:15 pm
As one of the most important swing states in the nation, I thought it would be interesting to look at the trends in some key Florida counties, and the reason for their trends. Any Florida peeps are welcome to jump in.

Miami-Dade: The largest county in the state. Historically lean D over the past 20 years. Shifted hard D in 2012. Are younger Cubans in the county moving away from the Republicans?

Palm Beach County: Has been a strong D county for decades but is quickly trending R. Romney was the first R candidate to get over 40% since 1988. Could be a sign of the older voters becoming more R.

Sumter County: An old person Oasis, thanks to The Villages. It has become extremely Republican through the years. A good microcosm of the white senior citizen vote.

Orange/Osceola County: These two counties in the greater Orlando area often shift together in elections. In the 80s and 90s they were strong R, in the Bush era they were swing counties and in the Obama era they are very strong D. Good for Dems as well because they are two of the fastest growing counties in Florida. Growing diversity is probably the main reason for the shift.

Volusia County: This county always fascinated me as it is a coastal county in Northern Florida with some southern influences (Daytona) that still voted D from 1992 to 2008. However, Romney won the county in 2012. Does anybody know the reason behind the R swing?

Duval County: Home of Jacksonville, probably the most culturally southern major city in Florida. For years the county was pretty safe R but has been trending D since around 2000. Obama came within two points of winning there in 2008. Possibly the black population is increasing?

Broward County: Surprisingly stable, considering its size and demographic transformation. Since the 90s it has been very reliably D and remains so today. My guess is that the olds who are becoming more R are being counterbalanced by minorities and immigrants becoming more D.



Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 70


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines