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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Gallup: US Seniors have realigned with the Republican Party on: March 31, 2014, 03:11:15 pm
Gallup (if you trust them) has confirmed what we've all been saying about the Democrats' problems with senior voters.


The Democratic party actually had an advantage with those +65 until 2006 but plummeted shortly after and dropped into negative territory by 2010. The drop roughly coincides with Obama's presidency, with Gallup noting that race is a factor for this group of voters.

Honestly, I'm surprised that senior citizens were so Dem up until 2006
77  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: March 26, 2014, 11:59:17 am
Race: White
Age: 81
Gender: Male
Region: Southerner
Religion: Agnostic/Spiritual
Veteran Status: Yes, Korean War
Occupation: Carpentry until retirement
Family: Married four times, one daughter

78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Democratic Party after the 1984 elections: on: March 25, 2014, 02:23:31 pm
It was just a rebuilding period. Political parties are like brands and eventually your brand becomes stale and old fashioned. People can't easily define you and instantly know what you're about, so a competing brand takes your place.

It's like the coke and pepsi wars. Both are old, established brands that constantly compete with eachother. They each have a loyal base but compete for those consumers in the middle who could buy either one. Coke and Pepsi both take turns winning over these folks for certain periods of time through things like exciting new products or catchy advertising.

The Democrats were just in their "new coke" phase in the 80s.
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Swing map for 92 and 96 on: March 25, 2014, 02:09:38 pm
Does anybody have access to a national county swing map for the 1996 presidential election compared to 1992? I know from what I can access that Clinton's swing was far from uniform. He really improved in the Northeast and Midwest, which probably contributed to his overall increase in popular vote. He definitely did worse in the rocky mountain and great plains region, and in the south it depends on where you are- LA, WV and SC swung to him but other states swung against. Anyway, just wondering if anybody knew where I could find a map to see how this looks at the county level.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Around what year did talk first start about the GOP demographic disaster? on: March 25, 2014, 01:58:13 pm
I agree that the talk of a "demographic disaster" is premature and exaggerated, but the party still has big problems that stem from demographics.

Since 1992 they've only been able to scrape together enough states to win two times. But Clinton and Obama both won handily in the electoral college. It just seems easier for Democrats to get to 270 because they have a higher floor. Bush 04 and Obama 12 both had similar approval ratings but Bush barely got over the finish line with 286 while Obama got 332, even though Obama did about one point better than Bush. I think this all stems from the Demographics.
81  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many airports have you been to? on: March 24, 2014, 11:12:00 pm
LOL, it seems like everyone's been to Hartsfield. You know what they say, when you die, doesn't matter if you go to heaven or hell, you'll connect in Atlanta.

For me:

Atlanta - huge, perpetually busy, stressful
LAX- Loved the cool air traffic control tower lit up at night
Laguardia NYC- Trapped there on xmas eve day, very bad memories
Houston- was okay, would bang
Boston- Had chowder at legal seafood
Seattle- beautiful layout and good heavy rail accessibility
Dulles (DC)- pretty far away from the city, but green all around
Newark (NYC)- fuggedaboudit
London (Gatwick)- Healthrow's ugly cousin
Dublin- more state of the art than I imagined
Glasgow- greeted by bagpipers
Cincinnati- had skyline chili, was otherwise depressing
Pittsburgh- too young to remember
Cap Haitien (Haiti)- literally a shack with a slab of concrete next to it. Kids were playing nearby
Fort Lauderdale- had a good chilis nearby (just got back from Haiti so even chilis was good)
West Palm Beach- my first flight so good I guess
Birmingham- spent the night there the day before christmas

ahhh, airports

82  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Pennsylvania without Philadelphia on: March 23, 2014, 03:42:02 pm
ElectionsGuy, did your Philly totals include the suburbs or just Philadelphia county?

Just Philadelphia County, which is the city of Philadelphia.

Might be cool to look at Delaware county as well, since it's kind of an urban/suburban extension of Philadelphia. I'm thinking of calculating GA results without Fulton and Dekalb counties, since they too make up the urban core.
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Urban core counties that swung and trended to Romney on: March 23, 2014, 03:32:04 pm
In Travis turnout might partially explain it.  The raw vote total in Travis was about 3.2% lower in 2012 than it was in 2008, meanwhile it was down 1.1% statewide.  During the same time period the population growth was more than double in Travis 11.7% compared to the state as a whole 5.4%.

The 3.4% raw vote drop off was larger than the country as a whole 1.7%, so Travis had a larger drop off than both the nation as a whole and Texas as a whole, despite the fact the county grew at a much larger clip than both.  Chances are the bulk of that dropoff was younger voters.

The same is true in Fulton, the drop off was close in line to the national drop off, 1.8%, but higher than the state drop off .6%.  This is despite the fact that Fulton grew by 10% in population between 2008 and 2012 far outpacing the nation as a whole or the state 3.6%

This further backs up my theory that Georgia has a treasure trove of untapped Democratic voters that could turn us blue one day
84  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws on: March 23, 2014, 03:29:11 pm
Since we currently have a bunch of states where the ban was overturned, but a stay was issued for appeal, should we have another shading for that?
The Wikipedia version is good:


Such a busy map. I'd like think this will all be blue in 5 years. At this point it would take a legal expert to understand all the confusing gay marriage laws in every state.

And more specifically... if we assume that every state that has legalized SSM then halted it due pending decision does eventually get it completely legalized... here are the states color-coded to show which ones do and do not have SSM:

85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: This is how out-of-whack the Electoral College could be in 2016 on: March 23, 2014, 03:22:42 pm
The African American vote is not very important for the Electoral College. In the states where the African American population is big, almost all the whites vote Republican, and then, the Republicans take all the delegates of these states.
New York and Maryland have also high African American population, but in these states, the Democrats win even without the African American vote.

The hispanic vote is much more important for the Electoral College, because there are many hispanics in swing states.

No dude. I can think of many states where that isn't the case. Try Ohio, Florida, Virginia, NC, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and probably Illinois without Obama on the ballot. Without the black vote, those states probably would have gone Republican (and in NC's case, even more Republican)
86  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Pennsylvania without Philadelphia on: March 23, 2014, 12:18:23 am
If anyone could figure out whether Claire McCaskill still won in 2012 without St. Louis I'd be much obliged
87  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Pennsylvania without Philadelphia on: March 22, 2014, 11:58:19 pm
That swing is actually a lot more significant than I thought. I mean it shifted the state 8 points in 2012, that's huge.

I've been trying to determine the most powerful urban county in America in terms of controlling the politics of the state. I think Cook County, Il could be number one, but there's also Philadelphia, Wayne County MI, Miami-Dade, King County WA, Multnomah County OR, Fairfax VA, Cuyahoga OH,  and St. Louis. All of these counties are different sizes, but they tend to push the Democrat over the finish line in many statewide races.
88  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Michigan gay marriage ban struck down on: March 21, 2014, 06:59:25 pm
I'm trying not to get choked up. I've never been prouder of my state.

your state didn't do anything, one Federal judge made a decision.  if you're prouder of this than you are of the 1936 Flint strike then you're a sociopath.

wow, you must be fun at parties
89  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Fred Phelps has passed over "the edge of death" on: March 20, 2014, 12:31:22 pm

90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson getting increasingly wacky: compares US political correctness to Nazis on: March 20, 2014, 01:20:58 am
Stupid conservatives and their trendy hatred of political correctness. They get just as upset when someone badmouths Christianity. But they call it "undermining traditional values"
91  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why do conservatives hate Hollywood? on: March 19, 2014, 02:26:43 pm
Because Conservatives think liberals in Hollywood are brainwashing our culture.

Hollywood used to be Republican in like the 1950's but I think in the 1970's those paths converged and Hollywood was split between Dems and Republicans. Finally in the 1980's the Dems pulled ahead in party ID in Hollywood and never really looked back.

I don't think Hollywood was ever Republican. I saw a documentary on Ronald Reagan claiming that one of the big reasons he remained a Democrat for so long was because Hollywood supported Dems, and this was in the 40s and 50s. The entertainment industry has also always been pretty unionized, which would have caused many to support Democrats even before the party became more liberal.
92  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why do conservatives hate Hollywood? on: March 19, 2014, 12:48:26 pm
Average people who are conservative hate Hollywood because they think they're trying to undermine traditional values and corrupt young children into a life of drugs and sex. But they still go see all their movies.

The Conservative elite hate Hollywood because they have to compete with them for power and influence and they know Hollywood is winning because they put out a more entertaining product. But they still go see all their movies.
93  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Fred Phelps is "on the edge of death" on: March 18, 2014, 11:58:58 am
Did he actually get a above 40% in the Kansas senate primary in 1992? Shocked

How the hell did that happen?

He got 31% and won a couple of counties. Quite the bizarre/impressive/frightening showing especially considering that he was a Democrat.
A little over 30% is still ridiculous.  However, he likely got those votes the same way Alvin Greene won the South Carolina senate primary in 2010.  I doubt the Senate primary was a high priority for Democratic voters in 1992, since whoever won was going to lose to Bob Dole in November.

It also could be that some voters remembered the younger Phelps.  Before he went nutters over gays, he actually had a reputation as a civil rights lawyer fighting racial discrimination.

But you know that this will become the new hot talking point among right wingers. "Fred Phelps was a Democrat. Therefore, Democrats are the REAL party of homophobes and terrible people."
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Biggest state surprises of the 1992 election on: March 16, 2014, 10:22:54 pm
The biggest surprise in my opinion was New England (not a single state, but still). The only Election where the Democrats had won all the states of New England was Johnsons landslide victory in 1964. Bush did a lot better than Goldwater, but he still lost every single state in New England and the Northeast in general to Clinton. Even when Ford lost the General Election in 1976 he won several of these states.

Bush was desperate in 1992 and made his campaign all about the "culture wars" (ugh) which probably handed him several southern states but alienated him in New England and the northeast. I think 1992 was the final straw for yankee Republicans.
95  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Fred Phelps is "on the edge of death" on: March 16, 2014, 08:18:35 pm

my thoughts exactly
96  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Pornhub: The South watches proportionately more gay porn than anywhere else on: March 15, 2014, 10:21:45 pm
They don't call us the dirty south for nothing Wink
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Urban core counties that swung and trended to Romney on: March 15, 2014, 09:31:05 pm
Not the whole county but Hoboken, NJ prob fits this too.

Yeah, Hudson county actually trended and swung to Obama. Is Hoboken gentrifying?
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Biggest state surprises of the 1992 election on: March 15, 2014, 09:28:58 pm
You gotta hand it to Clinton. A year out from the election Bush seemed invincible and out of the Dems who had a prayer Clinton was last on the list. But he ran a great campaign that managed to win back a lot of support from southerners while finally picking up the blue states that had been slowly moving away from the Republicans. I would love to see another Clinton who could win Tennessee, California, Vermont and Montana.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Biggest state surprises of the 1992 election on: March 14, 2014, 10:47:24 pm
I wish I had been old enough to pay attention to the 92 election. It really was a big realignment with so many states changing allegiances.

Surprise Clinton States: NJ, VT, NH, CA, NV (All of them has been strong R previously)

Surprise Bush States: Basically every southern state he won. I'm sure in 1992 people would have expected a victorious southern Democrat to sweep the south, but Bush was still strong here.

100  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe your county's political/demographic history on: March 14, 2014, 05:48:03 pm
Clarke County, GA. Not born here but I've lived here for the past 6 years and consider it my home. The county is home to Athens, GA which is home to the University of Georgia. Because it's a college town, Athens is more diverse and liberal than the rest of the state, especially the surrounding area. Most people see it as an island of (non atlas) blue in a sea of (non atlas) red. It wasn't always so far left though. UGA used to be your typical southern school more like Auburn, Alabama and Ole Miss. It wasn't integrated until the early 60s and even after that it remained pretty "old south." That changed around the 80s though when the Athens music scene took off. Bands like REM and the B52s really took off around that time and Athens gained a reputation as great music city, attracting more artsy, liberal residents and students. You can see the change in election results. Clarke goes quickly moves to the left of Georgia in the 80s and 90s. I'll start with 1984 since the favorite son effect wears off by then in GA.

Clarke: 53% Reagan 47% Mondale
Georgia: 60% Reagan 40% Mondale

Clarke: 48% Bush 48% Dukakis (Dukakis wins by 4 votes)
Georgia: 59% Bush 40% Dukakis

Clarke: 42% Bush 43% Clinton
Georgia: 36% Bush 53% Clinton

Clarke: 56% Clinton 38% Dole
Georgia: 46% Clinton 47% Dole

Clarke: 52% Gore 41% Bush
Georgia: 55% Bush 43% Gore

Clarke: 58% Kerry 40% Bush (almost a total flip from statewide margin)
Georgia: 58% Bush 41% Kerry

Clarke: 65% Obama 34% McCain
Georgia: 52% McCain 47% Obama

Clarke: 63% Obama 34% Romney
Georgia: 53% McCain 45% Obama

So since 1984 Clarke has gone from being 14 points more D than the state to 27 points more D in 2012
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