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1  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Obama to declare victory on May 20th on: May 08, 2008, 01:29:49 pm
I understand the reason for doing this, i.e. clinching a majority of pledged delegates, etc, but there just seems to be something slightly wrong with claiming an overall victory on the day he is overwhelmingly defeated in Kentucky.

He's going to try to balance that out with a win in Oregon. If he loses Oregon then yea, he's going to look pretty stupid.
2  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: So will any other Hillary supporters be voting for McCain? on: May 07, 2008, 09:47:56 pm
here is a post I lifted from Obama Underground (formerly Democratic Underground) I feel it best expresses how the rest of us feel about Obama.

If this is too long to read, so be it. I said what I have to say. I don't care who disagrees.

If it wasn’t for Edwards, obama would already be back in Illinois holding routine town meetings. I would bet odds a hundred to one John is cursing the days he did all the dirty work on Hillary. It would have been him and Hillary now that we were left to decide between if John hadn’t strategized that he would attack Hillary in the early debates, and ignore obama.

The media played right along simultaneously and did nothing. Their usual standard of excellence. Instead of raking obama’s closets for the Wrights and exposing his arrogance to the bitter people of all the other states, prior to only finding it out before Pennsylvania, they kept him alive. Had Edwards slammed into obama, he would be nothing but at a memory along with the other also-rans.

Oufit obama in a ten gallon hat, cowboy boots, put him on the back of a covered wagon and you couldn’t tell him from one of the snake oil salesmen who peddled colored water touting it to cure everything from ulcers to baldness. I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could see him in an open field. Him and his arrogant ever present peppermint stick finger wagging as he preaches like the pastor he so now denounces after chumming up with him for twenty years. And even touting him early in his campaign. I have to laugh every time I think of it.

There is no doubt in my mind, both obamas sit in their hotel room at night after campaign rallies and brainstorm for Rosa Parks invoking slogans that will suck you all in so he can pause for the applause and adulation in his next contrived speech. Just like the phony he is. He’s a power crazy, self adoring, opportunist. And of course his wife has never been proud of America until now. Exactly.

He spends multi millions of dollars advertising around the clock on every channel he can buy time on, for an upcoming primary in a state he “knows” doesn’t count for anything towards delegates. Running them the entire week before the primary is held. Then claims he didn’t campaign. Bwha ha ha ha. Yes, by all means make him your choice for president. You definitely want a man who spends millions he got from you for something he says is irrelevant. That’s a definite winner.

He's never had an original thought in his political life. He rushed out a health care plan because Edwards was cleaning his clock over the issue, having one long before him. Then almost predictably was able to listen to Hillary’s answers first during most of their “debates.” Therefore he could conveniently spring board off of all her answers.

If they were ever to have a real debate where only the two were asking each other questions, she would screw him into the floor. His lack of knowledge would be so apparent, it would be embarrassing. If he was elected, he would literally be one of the only presidents--at least of my era, that would be dumber than anybody in his cabinet. The only other is the puss bag that’s in the office now. Saturday Night Live wasn’t satire. They were so dead on the money it wasn’t funny.

If he is ever on the stage with McCain where they will have strict time constraints, where you have a minute to two minutes to make your point, obama will be looking for a way to crawl off the stage on his hands and knees. He cannot stand to let anybody get the last word, or remotely criticize him. His ego is in the stratosphere. To present, he has had the luxury to ramble, “clarify” his last clarification, and talk for an additional five minutes after Hillary slammed him. All because the moderators were a joke. So were the debate “rules.” Those weren’t debates, those were string bean oratories. And the media stooges just let him bullsh**t on and on.

That won’t happen with the presidential debates. There will be time constraints. Obama is absolutely incapable of short, concise, intelligent summary statements because he talks in circles and makes up sh**t as he goes. Then he has to come back and pull litter over it. When McCain hits him with a zinger and he forcibly has to shut up because time is up, he will freak. You will see another bush fuming on the stool. How dare anyone question the great obama!

If he somehow wangles his way to the nomination, it will be a slaughter. The Harold Ford “swift boating” will be like comparing it to a vacation on the French Riviera. The sleaze the 527's will roll out for your heart throb will be unrivaled in political history. And when they get done with him, he will look like he was run over by a soccer team wearing golf spikes.

There aren’t enough Democrats in the United States to counter the number of republicans that will keep coming over the hill to vote for Grandpa McCain. The republican independents will also all come home to the safety of the terror touting ex prisoner of war. And if you haven’t heard, a HUGE number of Hillary supporters will never vote for string bean no matter what. Live in la la land all you want, the exit polls have given you those unequivocal facts. And I am one of those millions.

If the primaries were run on the model of the republican system with winner take all, Hillary would be waltzing to the nomination. He doesn’t win any of the state primaries, that almost always without fail, provide the crucial electoral college nail biting votes absolutely essential to win the election. He wins the states that the republicans will have another blow out, as sure as the sun comes up tomorrow. Or he wins the caucus states.  Problem is, there won't be any caucus on election day.

Blacks have primarily voted for him in the primaries for one reason. He’s a brother of the cloth. Like a Harley rider recognizes another Harley rider. I give great credit to that small percentage who break from that tempting opportunity to raise one of their own to the position of world’s most powerful human irrespective of the gravity of the wrong choice. And instead carefully analyze the credentials, coming to the conclusion that Hillary’s credentials trump that long awaited historic opportunity.

I would love to be able to know the exact true percentage of how many Blacks who have voted for him, could not name one bill that he voted for, or one that he didn’t. I bet the number would be astounding. The sad fact is, it wouldn’t matter if he didn’t know the address of the Capitol. He represents what they are and campaign workers are going door to door carrying purely that message. Here’s a flash, the republicans could care less. They never sought the Black vote and never expect to get it.

The other demographics that buy into his hope-a-dope, are the young and the upper middle class. And it is upper, to be certain. If a lot of you are earning over fifty thousand dollars a year, something is drastically wrong with the poverty level statistic. Does appeal to the upwardly more affluent remind you of anything? The people who have a nice standard of living flocking to a person’s campaign for election because they want to keep their nice standard of living? It starts with an r, and ends with ublican. Isn’t it funny that the low wage earner supports Clinton and those with money want the man who they think is going to be the best to further the interests of their investment accounts?

Then the overwhelming support of Senator Clinton by the elderly, and bearers of many years of life experiences with previous administrations. Those who struggled through the numerous bloody wars, through the almost mutual nuclear annihilation of the US and the Soviet Union-- were it not for a man of unparalleled bravery and judgment in crisis who turned the ships around and prevented World War III. Those who have a basis for evaluation, balancing a past against a future in an election, have rationalized only Senator Clinton wins their confidence.

This seasoned voter of life experience, chooses the woman who has been as close to being president without having the title as you can possibly be. Knowing, that having already acted for eight years in the official capacity as emissary to the world leaders and their wives–knowing them personally--is experience that cannot remotely be compared in a serious analysis with that of a trainee. If obama was faced with the decision of John F. Kennedy, he would have filled his knickers.

And the real irony is that at no time was I ever upside down obsessed with passion to see Hillary Clinton as our first choice for president either. The one person who would have taken this republic of ours and astonished the world with his leadership and integrity, chose to selfishly ignore America’s need and pursue his agenda of passion as a private citizen. Honorable and prolific as that goal may be, there is no greater way to influence the world to the cause of global warming than as president of the United States of America presiding at a G-8 summit.

He could have won the Democratic nomination and the election in a cake walk. The support on the internet would have been so great, it would have melted the tubes. He would have had influence over the entire world for his goals, while at the same time guiding our ship out of the troubled waters we’re going to be lucky to survive without him. But he chose private life over America imploring his need. I may never forgive him for that.

more here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5863583&mesg_id=5863583

 


3  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Strategy for Hillary's campaign on: May 07, 2008, 05:16:14 pm
Hillary does not have to withdraw. Some people are acting as if she's still hanging on while losing these states 90-10 or something.

She's winning a large majority of white voters, and in general a huge chunk of the party supports her

4  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Will Hillary drop out on May 13th or very shortly after? on: May 07, 2008, 05:11:47 pm
you've come this far, take it all the way to the convention
5  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: who do you THINK will win the Democratic nomination? on: May 07, 2008, 04:48:47 pm
It's Obama

but the best thing for the Democratic party to do now is to dump both of them and settle on Edwards. Sure you'll have the Obama supporters cry for a while...and the Hillary people won't be happy either. But I think everybody can rally around the one democratic candidate then instead of having blacks sit the election out, or whites defect to McCain.
6  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: CQ VP Madness: Round II on: May 07, 2008, 04:24:14 pm
Play it safe and go with Huckabee. I'm tempted to say Thompson, but you don't want two geezers on the ticket.
7  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Strategy for Hillary's campaign on: May 07, 2008, 04:14:54 pm
The superdelegates are afraid of an AA backlash if they take the nomination from Obama for electability reasons. They are betting that the mass exodus of Hillary supporters to McCain will not happen, thinking that it's all bitterness and sabre rattling...that we'll eventually "come home" to Obama.

They are making a grave mistake.
8  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Strategy for Hillary's campaign on: May 07, 2008, 04:09:38 pm
Obama got to do plenty of victory dances in states where he won because he was black and (unlike Sharpton) not crazy. Hillary is entitled to celebrate WV and KY.

politics can be disingenuous. Tough beans, she has to play her hand

She's going to look really bad when she argues for paying attention to West Virginia and Kentucky while ignoring North Carolina.  Besides, at this point, she needs a killer argument.  She doesn't need an uninteresting talking point that could backfire and few people care about.  That kind of thing isn't going to convince the superdelegates.  They're not that dumb.

And even if she had a killer argument, she would need an Obama explosion of epic levels, at which no one would give a flying damn about West Virginia and Kentucky.

She can play the hand she's dealt, but if it's ten-high and she can't bluff anymore, she just isn't going to win unless Obama is caught cheating or, err, shot.

I don't know what to think with the superdelegates, they don't seem to know what they're doing.

What jumps out at me when I look at NC is Hillary winning white Democrats 62%-37% and White Independents 58%-38%

How many of those will jump ship to McCain?
9  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Predicted your state in Nov. on: May 07, 2008, 04:03:46 pm
New Jersey

McCain - 53%
Obama - 46%

if Clinton...

Hillary - 52%
McCain - 47%

LOL. Even Clinton would do better than Kerry did in 2004, let alone Obama. If for no reason but money, on both counts.

You have to consider who she'd be running against, and he'll have Lieberman and Giuliani out on the stump for him. McCain is the type of republican that will play well in NJ. Maybe I can revise it to 53-46, but you're mistaken if you think 08 is going to produce a Bush-Gore like result in NJ.
10  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Predicted your state in Nov. on: May 07, 2008, 03:55:27 pm
New Jersey

McCain - 53%
Obama - 46%

if Clinton...

Hillary - 52%
McCain - 47%

surrounding areas

NY

Obama - 54%
McCain - 45%

if Clinton...

Hillary - 57%
McCain - 42%

Penn.

McCain - 54%
Obama - 45%

if Clinton...

Hillary - 51%
McCain - 48%
11  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Strategy for Hillary's campaign on: May 07, 2008, 03:53:14 pm
Wow, uh, no.

1. Downplay NC. Don't completely write it off, but talk about how Hillary battled hard, talk about race without explicitly mentioning it. "She never had a chance", "Demographics were not in our favor, what could we do?" etc.

Which is going to look stupid considering the demographics of WV & KY.  Not that she won't do that anyway, but it will still be disingenuous and eventually even her supporters will recognize that.

2. Take a media bias angle on Indiana. We WON Indiana. Obama hasn't been crowned yet, the media is eager to push her out of the race. Obama contended Indiana hard but Hillary still won. It was not as lopsided as it seemed last night.

Media bias toward Obama for Indiana?  After such a daunting media cycle for him, and the fact that the media is going out of its way to make it look like a competitive race still.  Again, disingenuous and not enough.

3. Play up West Virginia and Kentucky. While these may not be huge states, they're not exactly a pair of Vermonts either. West Virginia is 37th in terms of population, Kentucky is 26th. Talk about the importance of these voters having there voices heard.

But not North Carolina...OK.  She can try, but for the third time, disingenuous and not enough.

4. Make a visit to WV and KY to shore up your landslides(and they'd better come through), but pour everything you've got into Oregon. Last poll I saw out of there had Obama up by 4. If last night was Obama's unofficial crowning, then Oregon will be official. Throw a monkey wrench into things. BEAT HIM IN OREGON or get very very close...but she really has to win (and she will have a little bit of momentum coming out of West Virginia)

Good luck.  Last polls in Oregon had Obama up 12, 6 and 10, though.  And that was when Obama was pretty much doing his worst.  I personally think that's surprisingly good for him relative to my knowledge of the state, but still.  She's bleeding, he isn't, and she needs to recover.  How?

5. When this happens, it's media blitz time. Key words...BUYERS REMORSE. What happened to Obama, we thought he was the nominee...and yet he loses Oregon, Kentucky, and West Virginia. What does that mean, what's going on? Plant as many seeds of doubt as possible.

She's really not in much position to win Oregon unless there is another Obama scandal and she has smooth sailing.  Otherwise the states are very likely to fall just as expected.

And just continue to bloody and weaken him as the days go by. Remember, it's about 2012 now for the most part. You want McCain to win...you want McCain to have this thing neatly wrapped up by late August, you want McCain ahead in NJ, close in NY and Conn., and with sizeable leads in California, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Let the Democratic party get nervous and start pointing fingers.

"We can't let our nominee get chosen in caucuses, by block AA voting and a small army of white, rich, college hipsters!"

Hope that it gets so bad, that huge chunks of the Democratic party start talking about replacing Obama with Hillary late in the game.

If Obama is behind in California, she'll probably have eviscerated her General chances too.  If she's this obvious, she WILL be blamed, and 2012 will be gone too.

Obama got to do plenty of victory dances in states where he won because he was black and (unlike Sharpton) not crazy. Hillary is entitled to celebrate WV and KY.

politics can be disingenuous. Tough beans, she has to play her hand
12  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: So will any other Hillary supporters be voting for McCain? on: May 07, 2008, 03:43:13 pm
Count 3 from my family. My mother, father, and myself. All supporters of Hillary, all voted for her in the primary...all will jump ship to McCain without even a second thought.
13  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Strategy for Hillary's campaign on: May 07, 2008, 03:22:08 pm
Now it may seem that all hope is lost, but she does have a couple of political hailmary's left.

1. Downplay NC. Don't completely write it off, but talk about how Hillary battled hard, talk about race without explicitly mentioning it. "She never had a chance", "Demographics were not in our favor, what could we do?" etc.

2. Take a media bias angle on Indiana. We WON Indiana. Obama hasn't been crowned yet, the media is eager to push her out of the race. Obama contended Indiana hard but Hillary still won. It was not as lopsided as it seemed last night.

3. Play up West Virginia and Kentucky. While these may not be huge states, they're not exactly a pair of Vermonts either. West Virginia is 37th in terms of population, Kentucky is 26th. Talk about the importance of these voters having there voices heard.

4. Make a visit to WV and KY to shore up your landslides(and they'd better come through), but pour everything you've got into Oregon. Last poll I saw out of there had Obama up by 4. If last night was Obama's unofficial crowning, then Oregon will be official. Throw a monkey wrench into things. BEAT HIM IN OREGON or get very very close...but she really has to win (and she will have a little bit of momentum coming out of West Virginia)

5. When this happens, it's media blitz time. Key words...BUYERS REMORSE. What happened to Obama, we thought he was the nominee...and yet he loses Oregon, Kentucky, and West Virginia. What does that mean, what's going on? Plant as many seeds of doubt as possible.

And just continue to bloody and weaken him as the days go by. Remember, it's about 2012 now for the most part. You want McCain to win...you want McCain to have this thing neatly wrapped up by late August, you want McCain ahead in NJ, close in NY and Conn., and with sizeable leads in California, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Let the Democratic party get nervous and start pointing fingers.

"We can't let our nominee get chosen in caucuses, by block AA voting and a small army of white, rich, college hipsters!"

Hope that it gets so bad, that huge chunks of the Democratic party start talking about replacing Obama with Hillary late in the game.
14  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gallup will say Bush +6 in CO on: October 18, 2004, 05:51:04 pm
seems about right, I think Kerry will close the gap a little, Colorado will go Bus by 4 points.
15  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: SurveyUSA poll dump FL, PA, NC, AR... on: October 18, 2004, 05:49:03 pm
lookin' good, though I'm worried about Ohio, whenever they release it.

16  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush 50 Kerry 47 says ABC/WaPo on: October 18, 2004, 04:33:39 pm
scientific polls showed Kerry won both the 2nd and 3rd debate, not overwhelmingly, but he still won.

This could be similar to 1976, final polls had Carter 48 Ford 50, Ford chipped away at a 25-30 point lead until he took the late lead, it ended up 50-48 Carter.
17  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush 50 Kerry 47 says ABC/WaPo on: October 18, 2004, 04:22:02 pm
but what exactly caused the solid shift to Bush? It couldn't be all Mary Cheney? What was it?

Usually the Dem base is late coming together, right now you're seeing the first trickle of the flock coming home. Gore was mired at 42-44% for so long, then in the final week he shot up.

You here Dick Morris (asswipe) talk about this sometimes, the Dems are always underpolled and they tend to "grow" by 2-3 points on election day.

once again we don't know the internals, registered Dems still outnumber repubs something like 34-30, and these polls regularly oversample republicans.
18  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush surge in MN? on: October 18, 2004, 04:18:57 pm
latest Minnesota polls show Kerry +2 (GOP Strategic Vision 47-45) and Star Tribune +5 48-43. Everything since the Rasmussen poll shows Kerry inching away.
19  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush 50 Kerry 47 says ABC/WaPo on: October 18, 2004, 04:15:01 pm
so it's tightened a little bit, Kerry +1 here and tied in the latest Zogby/Rasmussen figures.

I still can't figure out the Gallup stuff, perhaps it's true they oversampled Republicans by 9%? Nothing happened to warrant such a dramatic shift.
20  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: Bush Wins 3rd Debate on: October 13, 2004, 11:52:50 pm
Kerry had 1 real joke, and it was a memorable one with Tony Soprano, we'll all remember this years from now. Bush tried too hard to be funny all the times, and came off looking too hyperactive and goofy, even drooling at one point.
21  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Results are in, Kerry wins again (3-0) on: October 13, 2004, 11:50:31 pm
killed in the 1st debate, squeeked by in the 2nd, somewhere in between in the 3rd

CNN/USA Today/Gallup

Kerry 52% Bush 39%

CBS

John Kerry 39%
George Bush 25%
Tie 36%

ABC

heavily oversampled republicans 38%-30%-28% Indy)

Kerry- 42%
Bush- 41%
22  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: Kerry had a cheat sheet at debate on: October 03, 2004, 07:11:12 pm
oh cry me a river. you could see that bush also pulled something out of his pocket. They both seemed to be pulling out pens.
23  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Drudge Reports blazes with "Did Kerry have Cheat sheet" on: October 03, 2004, 06:54:22 pm
The Kerry campaign has a chance to have some fun with this if the right wing media talking heads pick up on this. Would FOX, Rush, and Hannity try to see if this story has any legs to prop up there guy? I hope so, because these allegations are so ridiculous. The GOP will come across as whiny crybabies
24  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:But Bush GAINS 5% among "uncommitted" according to CBS on: October 02, 2004, 04:12:25 pm
it's being reported on DU, 48-45 Kerry
25  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Newsweek Poll : "Bush lead Gone" says Drudge on: October 02, 2004, 04:11:34 pm
49-46, still too close for comfort. Everybody knows Kerry can close elections out.

Kerry can deliver the knockout blow Friday.....or Bush delivers a respectable performance and it'll be 50-50 all the way to Nov. 2, but I think it's too late for any sort of Bush landslide.

The Edwards debate is also key, he's got to keep Kerry's momentum going.
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