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June 29, 2015, 10:31:27 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Christopher Lee has died on: June 12, 2015, 11:39:44 am
Fun Fact: Lee actually witnessed the last public execution in France as a teenager.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 01:59:29 pm
Is there a majority bonus? I see AKP is getting a higher share of seats that its results would entail. I thought Turkey used unaltered PR (although with an insanely high threshold).

There's also quite a few 2 or 3-seat constituencies, which benefit large parties.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:57:15 am
BTW, don't current totals already include the expat vote? If not, the AKP might expect a little bump when those are added.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:55:34 am
If the AKP is denied a majority, will the other parties form an anti-Erdogan coalition or will one of the opposition parties prop up an AKP minority/form a coalition with the AKP? Or is it too early to tell?

Most likely HDP will prop AKP, but not for free. The problem is that HDP and MHP hate each other, and CHP are too Kemalist to find dealing with the Kurds easy. If not for Erdogan, HDP and AKP would be a natural coalition. Hopefully,  HDP will be able to strengthen the non-Erdogan forces in AKP.

There's also the scenario all the Turks I know ardently believe in: AKP without majority = military coup within 6 months.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:52:31 am
If the AKP is denied a majority, will the other parties form an anti-Erdogan coalition or will one of the opposition parties prop up an AKP minority/form a coalition with the AKP? Or is it too early to tell?

My understanding is that it's very difficult to see a broad anti-AKP coalition because that would require the Kurds to work with the Kemalists and the ultra-nationalists, which looks unlikely, but that it is also difficult to see any of them propping up the AKP, especially with the AKP's handling of Kobani in the back of people's minds.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:30:33 am
FWIW, Yeni Safak has:

AKP 272
CHP 121
MHP  87
HDP  70

With 66.8% reporting.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:25:24 am
This is very close but IF HDP gets in, it's very hard to see how AKP gets a majority, right?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:18:36 am
YeniSafak says:

Parti 1: 274
Parti 2: 120
Parti 3:  87
Parti 4:  69

Barest of majorities for AKP.

He would be 2 seats short of a majority if this holds

Yeah, fixed that. The Yeni Safak graph wasn't very clear.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:17:01 am
YeniSafak says:

Parti 1: 274
Parti 2: 120
Parti 3:  87
Parti 4:  69

AKP barely missing out on majority.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:12:42 am
HDP beginning to look a lot better. There's a LOT of votes left to be counted in the East and Istanbul isn't going to push them below 10%.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:04:43 am
For example:

Van: 11,9% reporting
Hakkari: 16.9% reporting
Tun: 21.6% reporting

With 38% counted nationally.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish general election, June 7th 2015 on: June 07, 2015, 11:02:45 am
Looking very iffy for HDP. That said, opposition strongholds seem to be mostly underreporting relative to the AKP's heartlands, so they might just scrape in.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the new Socialist avatars on: June 05, 2015, 02:40:26 pm
Cringe-inducing imo

QFT.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's the best thing that Israel has done for America? on: May 30, 2015, 04:11:30 pm
The thing that Israel did best for America is the one that she did best for all peoples. Being the people from whom the Messiah Jesus came. As much as many have avoided the Jesus card, it's one that can't be neglected.

Problem: Bethlehem is in the West Bank. Doesn't this mean the US ought to be all over the Security Council trying to cover Fatah's back?
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Breaking News: New forum is up and running - sign up now! on: May 29, 2015, 03:21:55 pm
Would anyone care to PM me a link to this Atlas After Dark situation?
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Mass arrests at FIFA on: May 29, 2015, 12:32:51 pm
what % chance Blatter serves out his entire term?

You mean his jail term?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Surinamese General Elections May 25, 2015 on: May 26, 2015, 04:15:22 am
Provisional(?) Results:

NDP          27 seats
V7            17 seats
A-Alliance   5 seats

Pretty major victory for Bouterse if true.

http://www.dwtonline.com/laatste-nieuws/2015/05/26/ndp-wint-verkiezingen/
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Palestinians banned from riding same buses as Israelis: official on: May 20, 2015, 05:27:04 pm
The head of FIFA has already explicitly said there are no grounds to suspend Israel - something they didn't even consider doing to Iran when they butchered hundreds of peaceful protestors in the streets and hung gay teenagers - so any further action on that front will only discredit FIFA, much like "Zionism is Racism" discredited the UN.


It isn't really Blatter's call, though.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015 on: May 15, 2015, 07:18:47 am
How is the ZU holding up in opposition? No cracks as of yet?
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: NBC News: ISI knew where bin Laden was hiding on: May 12, 2015, 04:33:34 am
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v37/n10/seymour-m-hersh/the-killing-of-osama-bin-laden

The full story actually makes for pretty interesting reading. Highlights are Hersh alleging that the US government lied not only about the role of torture in the process of finding OBL, but also about the use of a fake vaccination campaign for getting a positive DNA-identification of him, with rather disastrous results for legitimate vaccination campaigns in Pakistan.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Cameron 2.0 on: May 12, 2015, 04:30:18 am
Bring back badger baiting, surely?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: May 08, 2015, 05:05:13 pm
Had he survived, would Douglas Alexander have been a serious contender for the leadership?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:10:10 pm
Have the polls ever been this wrong before?

1992, 1970...always against Labour.

2010
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: May 02, 2015, 03:31:51 pm
Didn't the last Survation poll have Labour on 29?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 10, 2015, 09:18:45 am
The new conservative line on Miliband is a bit mystifying to me: do they want people to think Miliband is a charmless North London nerd or do they want them to think of him as a slick operator without principles?
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