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May 26, 2016, 05:42:59 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump's Convention Speech. on: May 13, 2016, 05:50:58 pm
Should he give it at the (NFL) Stadium where the Browns play?  Two of the reasons Obama went to a football stadium in 2008 were he knew half the delegates supported Clinton, and he knew he could fill it.

Should Trump do the same?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton/Trump: Your battleground on: May 05, 2016, 05:03:56 pm


It's six months out. You could make 35 states green.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How ya feeling tonight? on: May 03, 2016, 09:30:13 pm
Happy.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 07:29:03 pm
The GOP Nominee doesn't hate gay people.   Yay!!
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 06:11:41 pm
Good Lord, GOP exits look like Trump is flaying open Kasich/Cruz with the obsidian knife in Aztec human sacrifice.

Seriously, if these GOP exits bear out, GOP primaries cld all but end tonight. Pretty hard to make argument if big guy routinely tops 60.

This is just the Northeast (four blue states and one swing state).  Wait until we go back to real America next week!!

LOL.
Would you consider Tennessee to be part of your "real America" ?

NeverTrump won Tennessee 62-38

NeverCruz won it 75-25.  Smiley
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: People in DC shouldn't be allowed to vote because they're Democrats on: April 23, 2016, 12:07:42 pm
I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
The Democratic Party would lose 2 electoral college votes from its firewall.

I'd be willing to make that sacrifice to get the people of DC a voting House member and 2 Senators.  

Isn't it a sacrifice the people of DC would have to make, not you?

The way that Dax said it implied that Making DC part of Maryland would hurt the Democratic party . As A Democrat, I'm ok with that.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: People in DC shouldn't be allowed to vote because they're Democrats on: April 23, 2016, 11:51:39 am
I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
The Democratic Party would lose 2 electoral college votes from its firewall.

That depends how it is done. It could be merged with a simple bill returning the territory and reducing the district to just capitol hill/white house/etc. If it's done that way, the tiny district still gets its electoral votes because that is provided for in the Constitution. They would have to amend the Constitution to get rid of those EVs, and I doubt that would be possible right now.

Congress would then be able to assert power (as they could now) over those electoral votes. I'm sure there would be a fight over it, depending on who controls Congress at any given time. I could see them agreeing to just assign those votes to whoever wins the PV, even if it took a lot of arguing to get to that point.

I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
The Democratic Party would lose 2 electoral college votes from its firewall.

I'd be willing to make that sacrifice to get the people of DC a voting House member and 2 Senators. 

You misunderstand - Merging DC back with Maryland doesn't get them any more Senators, because it's not a new state. It might get them a new US House Representative, due to the population changes, but that's it. On a side note, the addition of DC to MD might allow Democrats in MD to effectively gerrymander MD's US House map to get all the state's seats by cracking DC up and diluting GOP districts with Democrats. So technically they would get maybe more than just 1 extra seat when all is said and done.

It's worth noting that the Maryland legislature would never allow this merger. It would completely change the state's power structure and help marginalize existing MD population centers and their respective politicians, since DC is quite large.

I meant they'd get Maryland's Senators. 
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: People in DC shouldn't be allowed to vote because they're Democrats on: April 23, 2016, 10:39:37 am
I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
The Democratic Party would lose 2 electoral college votes from its firewall.

I'd be willing to make that sacrifice to get the people of DC a voting House member and 2 Senators. 
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: People in DC shouldn't be allowed to vote because they're Democrats on: April 23, 2016, 10:20:20 am
I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Odds for each candidate per ballot on: April 12, 2016, 04:50:16 pm
Delegate Binding

In similar fashion, a map of what ballot delegates become unbound after.



Green = 0 ballots
Red = 1 ballot
Blue = 2 ballots
Yellow = 3 ballots
Gray = Never, unless other conditions met.



According to this, there will be 357 delegates that can't vote for Cruz on a 2nd ballot. If he gets shut out of Maryland and he and Trump split CA that number becomes 481.

That will leave 1993 delegates for Cruz to win support from.  1237 is 62% of that.

That's a high bar to clear on the 2nd ballot.   And if he can't do it then will his support begin to fall off?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will trump win all 95 NY delegates? on: April 10, 2016, 08:48:08 am
Around 86.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Wisconsin Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) on: April 05, 2016, 07:18:38 pm
FOX said that Trump got 35% among women, but they didn't say the men's numbers.  That makes me a little more worried than I was an hour ago.

I would guess maybe 40%.  So if that's right Trump should be at about 38%
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Project Trump's RNC Delegate Total on: April 02, 2016, 08:50:56 am
1212
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz vs. Clinton: Early battleground map? on: April 01, 2016, 04:56:32 pm
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most damaging to the GOP on: March 29, 2016, 04:57:55 pm
If Trump is the nominee, This is probably 1964. The Democrats win an electoral landslide and make big gains in congress.  But then as in 1966 & 1968,  The Republicans can make a big comeback and take back everything.

I'm not sure what happens if Trump goes in with the most wins, the most votes, the most delegates and has the nomination snatched away,  I think that's a bigger problem.



16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Contested convention means organizational chaos on: March 28, 2016, 07:28:07 pm
Who gives the keynote? Who decides that and when?

17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will the rest of the map look like? on: March 19, 2016, 08:25:50 pm


Trump- Blue
Cruz- Red
Rubio- Gray
Kasich- Green
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anti-Trump Protesters Block Main Road to Trump Rally on: March 19, 2016, 12:19:04 pm
Way to hand Trump Arizona on a silver platter.

Not that he wasn't going to win it anyway.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will in the April 26th Primaries? on: March 18, 2016, 04:41:18 pm
If Kasich is still in the running, I think Cruz might finish 3rd in all 5 states.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will in the April 26th Primaries? on: March 18, 2016, 06:22:30 am
My prediction:

Kasich wins: Connecticut Delaware Maryland Rhode Island
Trump wins: Pennsylvania (if Kasich isn't on the ballot)
Trump sweeps.

1) Half of Connecticut is an extension of New York. Trump wins there handily.
2) Trump took Mass with 50% of the vote. There's no reason to think he wouldn't do the same in RI.
3) Delaware will fall in line with RI and CT.
4) Kasich ran terribly in counties bordering Western Pennsylvania. Trump's name recognition will push him over the top in the NYC exurbs and Philadelphia.
5) Maryland is Kasich's best chance thanks to government workers living in the DC/Baltimore areas. But the northern part of the state resembles PA and there's a good military presence in Annapolis.

Most of them are registered Democrats. Maryland is a closed primary.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / GOP Voters in IA, NH, SC & NV on: March 16, 2016, 09:09:35 pm
How will these voters react if the Republican Nominee is someone like Paul Ryan who basically never set foot in their state?

I know they take their role in this process very seriously.   They go to all these rallies and town halls.  They listen and watch all of the candidates on local media. They spend months thinking about who to support.

So will they be mad? Or will the ends justify the means? (i.e. Ryan can beat Clinton. Trump and Cruz probably can't.)
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET) on: March 15, 2016, 05:35:24 pm
How many voters would have been undecided in Kasich's home state?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ROMNEY FOR KASICH on: March 13, 2016, 09:04:37 pm
ugh why would Kasich let Romney on the trail with him? is he asking to lose Ohio?

I had the same thought.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Utter chaos occuring at cancelled Trump rally in Chicago right now on: March 11, 2016, 08:37:23 pm
We'll have to move IL to the "lean Trump" category now.

Maybe Missouri as well.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio's campaign tells Ohio supporters to vote for Kasich on: March 11, 2016, 05:48:38 pm
Kind of ironic this is after a month of Team Rubio saying how they would have won more states if Kasich had dropped out earlier.
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