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June 28, 2016, 03:01:46 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump started June with $1.3 million... Hillary started June with $42 million on: June 20, 2016, 09:01:58 pm
That's not too bad......... Wink
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will the LGBT community vote for? on: June 14, 2016, 05:28:52 pm
Obama got 77%

I think Clinton will get about 74%

Romney backed the Federal Marriage Amendment.  Trump doesn't. So he'll do slightly better.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Someone just bought a web site. on: June 11, 2016, 07:06:40 pm
www.pocahontas.com

LOL Smiley
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump suggests “sports stars” night at the Republican National Convention on: June 11, 2016, 02:26:26 pm
Probably not any active players.  The teams don't want their players associated with someone this controversial.  Plus it's the middle of Baseball season. The NFL will be starting out training camps. And I doubt Trump has a lot of fans in the NBA.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which is likelier on: June 04, 2016, 03:03:08 pm
Trump winning.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mob in San Jose, CA attacks Trump supporters on: June 02, 2016, 10:54:56 pm
Democrats need to start aggressively denouncing this stuff NOW. This sh**t is pathetic.

Agreed.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mob in San Jose, CA attacks Trump supporters on: June 02, 2016, 10:44:11 pm
Someone Also burned a small American flag.

Morons.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: HC: People say, ‘I really like you, I just don’t know if I can vote for a women' on: May 31, 2016, 04:46:27 pm
Anyone who wouldn't vote for a woman for president wouldn't admire and really like Hillary Clinton.

Yeah.  And if Clinton had a better track record with honesty I might giver her the benefit of the doubt.   But she doesn't, so I won't.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / 270 to Win has their 2016 Simulator up. on: May 30, 2016, 02:55:43 pm
http://www.270towin.com/2016-simulation/
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Libertarian National Convention thread on: May 29, 2016, 04:51:24 pm
There are people trying to revoke his LP membership.

Boooooooooo!

11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Libertarian National Convention thread on: May 29, 2016, 04:41:25 pm
If I want to prance around in the nude that's my business and no one has any right to object.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would you laugh if the map ended up the exact same as 2012? on: May 26, 2016, 07:11:51 pm
I would find it more interesting than funny. IIRC, it would be the first time ever that the EC results were the same twice in a row.

I think it would be the first time any 2 maps were exactly the same.

If I'm wrong, someone feel free to correct me. Smiley
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump's Convention Speech. on: May 13, 2016, 05:50:58 pm
Should he give it at the (NFL) Stadium where the Browns play?  Two of the reasons Obama went to a football stadium in 2008 were he knew half the delegates supported Clinton, and he knew he could fill it.

Should Trump do the same?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton/Trump: Your battleground on: May 05, 2016, 05:03:56 pm


It's six months out. You could make 35 states green.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How ya feeling tonight? on: May 03, 2016, 09:30:13 pm
Happy.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 07:29:03 pm
The GOP Nominee doesn't hate gay people.   Yay!!
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 06:11:41 pm
Good Lord, GOP exits look like Trump is flaying open Kasich/Cruz with the obsidian knife in Aztec human sacrifice.

Seriously, if these GOP exits bear out, GOP primaries cld all but end tonight. Pretty hard to make argument if big guy routinely tops 60.

This is just the Northeast (four blue states and one swing state).  Wait until we go back to real America next week!!

LOL.
Would you consider Tennessee to be part of your "real America" ?

NeverTrump won Tennessee 62-38

NeverCruz won it 75-25.  Smiley
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: People in DC shouldn't be allowed to vote because they're Democrats on: April 23, 2016, 12:07:42 pm
I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
The Democratic Party would lose 2 electoral college votes from its firewall.

I'd be willing to make that sacrifice to get the people of DC a voting House member and 2 Senators.  

Isn't it a sacrifice the people of DC would have to make, not you?

The way that Dax said it implied that Making DC part of Maryland would hurt the Democratic party . As A Democrat, I'm ok with that.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: People in DC shouldn't be allowed to vote because they're Democrats on: April 23, 2016, 11:51:39 am
I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
The Democratic Party would lose 2 electoral college votes from its firewall.

That depends how it is done. It could be merged with a simple bill returning the territory and reducing the district to just capitol hill/white house/etc. If it's done that way, the tiny district still gets its electoral votes because that is provided for in the Constitution. They would have to amend the Constitution to get rid of those EVs, and I doubt that would be possible right now.

Congress would then be able to assert power (as they could now) over those electoral votes. I'm sure there would be a fight over it, depending on who controls Congress at any given time. I could see them agreeing to just assign those votes to whoever wins the PV, even if it took a lot of arguing to get to that point.

I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
The Democratic Party would lose 2 electoral college votes from its firewall.

I'd be willing to make that sacrifice to get the people of DC a voting House member and 2 Senators. 

You misunderstand - Merging DC back with Maryland doesn't get them any more Senators, because it's not a new state. It might get them a new US House Representative, due to the population changes, but that's it. On a side note, the addition of DC to MD might allow Democrats in MD to effectively gerrymander MD's US House map to get all the state's seats by cracking DC up and diluting GOP districts with Democrats. So technically they would get maybe more than just 1 extra seat when all is said and done.

It's worth noting that the Maryland legislature would never allow this merger. It would completely change the state's power structure and help marginalize existing MD population centers and their respective politicians, since DC is quite large.

I meant they'd get Maryland's Senators. 
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: People in DC shouldn't be allowed to vote because they're Democrats on: April 23, 2016, 10:39:37 am
I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
The Democratic Party would lose 2 electoral college votes from its firewall.

I'd be willing to make that sacrifice to get the people of DC a voting House member and 2 Senators. 
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: People in DC shouldn't be allowed to vote because they're Democrats on: April 23, 2016, 10:20:20 am
I'd be happy to have DC be part of Maryland. Smiley
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Odds for each candidate per ballot on: April 12, 2016, 04:50:16 pm
Delegate Binding

In similar fashion, a map of what ballot delegates become unbound after.



Green = 0 ballots
Red = 1 ballot
Blue = 2 ballots
Yellow = 3 ballots
Gray = Never, unless other conditions met.



According to this, there will be 357 delegates that can't vote for Cruz on a 2nd ballot. If he gets shut out of Maryland and he and Trump split CA that number becomes 481.

That will leave 1993 delegates for Cruz to win support from.  1237 is 62% of that.

That's a high bar to clear on the 2nd ballot.   And if he can't do it then will his support begin to fall off?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will trump win all 95 NY delegates? on: April 10, 2016, 08:48:08 am
Around 86.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Wisconsin Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) on: April 05, 2016, 07:18:38 pm
FOX said that Trump got 35% among women, but they didn't say the men's numbers.  That makes me a little more worried than I was an hour ago.

I would guess maybe 40%.  So if that's right Trump should be at about 38%
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Project Trump's RNC Delegate Total on: April 02, 2016, 08:50:56 am
1212
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