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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of KY's congressional districts will Hillary win (primary)? on: May 18, 2016, 12:17:26 am
She won 3, 4 and 6.

Clinton's best CD was 3, and Sanders' best was 5, although he got the most votes in 6 (which Clinton narrowly carried).

Link?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 17, 2016, 10:11:16 pm
Marion glitched out at 98-2 Sanders.

"ISN'T SALEM WHERE THEY BURN THE WITCHEZ??!!!!!!!!!!!1!!"
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 17, 2016, 10:04:52 pm
Bernie only winning Portland by 8% points. 
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 17, 2016, 07:32:46 pm
Huffpo shows that most of the precincts still out are in counties Hillary is leading in (including Jefferson).  It looks like a done deal.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 17, 2016, 05:38:46 pm
Hillary only up by 6% points now. (CNN)
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET) on: May 10, 2016, 06:22:58 pm
Come on, O'Malley, you can win a few counties! 
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predicting the 2016 Presidential Election by Congressional District on: May 06, 2016, 06:03:12 pm
Given the latest developments in the presidential nominating contests for both major parties (with Trump effectively being the presumptive nominee for the Republican party, and Hillary Clinton heavily favored to win the Democrat's nomination) , I've decided to update my 2016 Presidential Election by congressional district map.   Ratings for each congressional district are determined through current poll numbers (state and nationwide) as well as other variable such as demographics and past election results (off the top of my head).



Hillary Clinton: 217 Congressional Districts

Donald Trump: 199 Congressional Districts

Too close to call: 19 Congressional Districts

I would like to stress that this map is just a screenshot in time, and that a lot of things could change in the next 6 months yada yada yada, but due to Hillary's significant polling leads in recent weeks I believe that she is currently favored to win a majority of our nation's congressional districts.  
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY-Siena: Clinton curbstomps Trump on: May 06, 2016, 02:40:08 pm
So Hillary hold Staten Island?  I'm kind of worried since Trump got over 80% of the primary vote there, although I'm not positive that really means anything in the general.  Tongue
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post your CLINTON victory maps on: May 04, 2016, 04:30:41 pm
Obama 2012 + NC.

^This seems most likely in my opinion. 
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Indiana Primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 03, 2016, 07:23:15 pm
It's obvious that Sanders is somewhat favored at this point, but we still have, what, 55% of the vote still out?  
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a McGovern 1972/Cruz 2016 voter on: April 28, 2016, 04:23:18 pm
A yellow dog Democrat from Cottle County, Texas. 
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Primary winners in the biggest cities on: April 27, 2016, 12:30:32 am
You forgot Minneapolis!
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Whatcom County, WA Redistricting and Political Geography on: April 26, 2016, 10:10:16 pm
Btw that's actually the wrong map.  The Eastern district doesn't include Sumas or Everson or Nooksack, thankfully.

Do you have a link to the correct map?  Someone posted it on my Facebook feed the other day but I couldn't find it.

Here, this should work:

http://nwcitizen.com/entry?category=20
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET) on: April 26, 2016, 08:16:46 pm
Cruz is winning Baltimore by 9 votes lol.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Whatcom County, WA Redistricting and Political Geography on: April 26, 2016, 12:20:17 am
Btw that's actually the wrong map.  The Eastern district doesn't include Sumas or Everson or Nooksack, thankfully.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Whatcom County, WA Redistricting and Political Geography on: April 25, 2016, 02:36:29 pm
So it looks like imgur ate all of my images while I was away.  Sad.

Well here is the official district map that was approved a few days ago:

https://wa-whatcomcounty.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/17269

Should be 4-1 Democrats most of the time, but the coastal and mountain districts have been drawn to include enough GOP farmland area that they might be competitive in a good GOP year.

I don't really like the fact that the farmland district goes all the way to the city.  Pretty sure my old apartment is in it too, though the map isn't detailed enough for me to tell for sure.  

Overall they did a decent job.

Myself and others made a point to complain about Cortata being placed into the Lynden districts at the public hearing, albeit to no avail.  Although Bellingham is a little to big to fit into exactly 2 whole districts, I would have likely sacrificed the Silver Beach area of Bellingham to the Mountain district instead, as to make it slightly less Republican.  This is because under the new plan, Republican endorsed county council candidate Kathy Kershner lost her countywide election by 800 votes last year, but carried 3 out of Whatcom County's 5 districts (winning the Mountian district by 8%, the coastal by about 10%, and the Lynden district by at least 40%).  So despite the fact that Republicans are complaining, the redistricting actually turned out to give them an unfair advantage due to the way Bellingham's Northern district was drawn.

Hey, good to hear from someone following this on the ground.  And yeah, the Republicans could definitely win a majority with this map under the right circumstances.  Including Cordata in the Lynden district was pretty nonsensical imo.  The images aren't showing up here anymore (at least for me) but I demonstrated that it's very easy to draw a more Democratic-friendly map that does a better job of preserving natural communities.  That said it's also easier to draw a worse map for the Democrats.  Overall I can totally understand why you're unsatisfied with the outcome.

Luckily we still elect 2 members to our council via at-large elections, so the conservatives would have to sweep all three non-Bellingham districts and win one at-large to get a majority.  Personally I think that's a bit unlikely, since our county leans solidly Democratic.  But as you said, under the right circumstances....
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: April 24, 2016, 07:27:54 pm
Btw if you're reading this Yankee, I finally got around to fixing a whole lot of the 1980's congressional maps on wikipedia.  Wink Cheesy
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Whatcom County, WA Redistricting and Political Geography on: April 24, 2016, 06:03:13 pm
So it looks like imgur ate all of my images while I was away.  Sad.

Well here is the official district map that was approved a few days ago:

https://wa-whatcomcounty.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/17269

Should be 4-1 Democrats most of the time, but the coastal and mountain districts have been drawn to include enough GOP farmland area that they might be competitive in a good GOP year.

I don't really like the fact that the farmland district goes all the way to the city.  Pretty sure my old apartment is in it too, though the map isn't detailed enough for me to tell for sure.  

Overall they did a decent job.

Myself and others made a point to complain about Cortata being placed into the Lynden districts at the public hearing, albeit to no avail.  Although Bellingham is a little to big to fit into exactly 2 whole districts, I would have likely sacrificed the Silver Beach area of Bellingham to the Mountain district instead, as to make it slightly less Republican.  This is because under the new plan, Republican endorsed county council candidate Kathy Kershner lost her countywide election by 800 votes last year, but carried 3 out of Whatcom County's 5 districts (winning the Mountian district by 8%, the coastal by about 10%, and the Lynden district by at least 40%).  So despite the fact that Republicans are complaining, the redistricting actually turned out to give them an unfair advantage due to the way Bellingham's Northern district was drawn.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Massacre in Ohio leaves 8 dead on: April 23, 2016, 10:37:25 pm
Don't we have a megathread for mass shootings someplace?  I don't remember where it went.  
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Massacre in Ohio leaves 8 dead on: April 23, 2016, 10:36:35 pm
From yesterday:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ohio-multiple-dead_us_571a4e74e4b0d0042da90734

Quote
At least eight Ohio relatives, including a teenager, were shot to death Friday in killings that authorities said specifically targeted the family.

The killer or killers were on the loose, but Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine said there didn’t appear to be a threat to the community.

“Each one of the victims appears to have been executed,” DeWine said. “Each one of the victims appeared to be shot in the head.”

Other relatives “should be very careful and take particular caution,” he added. Law enforcement was trying to contact other family members who live in the area to alert them to potential dangers.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: County Map Guesses for April 26th Elections on: April 23, 2016, 03:48:56 pm
Is the Pennsylvania primary going to be closed?  I have the feeling that if it is, the results will parallel those in Ohio, with Bernie Sanders winning a small handful of counties with small populations while being destroyed virtually everywhere else.  
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: April 23, 2016, 03:44:29 pm
You should use the Atlas color scheme, you traitor. Angry

Mwahahahaha! 
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 4/26 Clinton Sweep--implications? on: April 22, 2016, 04:29:29 pm
Obama won't endorse before DC votes.

Or until Hillary reaches a full majority of pledged/super delegates.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: April 20, 2016, 05:23:52 pm
With virtually all of the precincts reporting in New York, this is what the results are by CD for both Democrats and Republicans:



Sorry about the lack of consistency when it comes to the color scheme.  You'll see that the one I use for the Democrats parallels the one used by the New York Times.  Tongue
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Primary/Caucus Results by CD on: April 20, 2016, 05:20:22 pm
With virtually all of the precincts reporting in New York, this is what the results are by CD for both Democrats and Republicans:



Sorry about the lack of consistency when it comes to the color scheme.  You'll see that the one I use for the Democrats parallels the one used by the New York Times.  Tongue
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