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7151  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: (6:00 PM EDT) SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS: IL, IN, KY, MI, MD, MO, OH, WV on: November 02, 2010, 05:18:27 pm
If thos early results in KY (and the NYT split screen) say anything Conway is doing better than Obama in 08.

That's not a surprise.
7152  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Will all three candidates (FL-SEN) win at least 1 county? on: November 02, 2010, 05:17:52 pm
Will all three candidates (FL-SEN) win at least 1 county?
7153  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Last minute poll: Will Republicans take the Senate? on: November 02, 2010, 04:48:07 pm
But isn't O'Donnell a witch or something?

No, she's you.

This just in - Christine O'Donnell is winning 100% of the vote in Delaware with 52,000 ballots counted . . . O'Donnell said in a press statement that "I'm not a witch, I just voted for myself."
7154  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES) on: November 02, 2010, 04:46:30 pm
From Campaign Spot. Ah the hype builds ... and builds ... and builds.

Quote
I don’t have the exits, but folks I know in the media and political worlds are getting their first glimpses.

Indicator Number One: I am told that one Democratic strategist, helping a television network with Election Night analysis, just declared that the Democrats were experiencing something on par with mass murder. The GOP counterpart looked at the same numbers and concluded the Democrats are, so far, not getting the urban turnout they need; suburban and rural areas are seeing big turnouts.

Indicator Number Two: One Republican who is seeing early indicators in Florida says, “If this holds, we win everything.”


The only thing the Democrats even had a shot at in FL was the governorship anyway... glad I predicted it for Scott. Tongue

Was he saying everything in Florida or everything in the country?
7155  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES) on: November 02, 2010, 04:45:55 pm
I've got five reporting methods ready to go for tonight, CNN TV, CNN.com, NY Times, Politico, and my local NBC affiiate (kfor.com) for the Oklahoma results.

What race in Oklahoma could possibly be that interesting?
7156  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES) on: November 02, 2010, 04:32:50 pm
According to Republicans, turnout is record high in rural areas and low in urban areas.  According to Democrats, turnout record high in urban areas and low in rural areas.  Just as an FYI.
7157  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES) on: November 02, 2010, 03:28:00 pm
GOP WINS GUAM!!!

And that changes the balance of power by 0.0%.  Wink

Guam's straw poll has predicted every presidential election's result since 1976 (when they went for Ford).  Not sure what their record on congressional elections is, though.
7158  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: SILLY PLEDGES TIME! on: November 02, 2010, 03:25:05 pm
If Jack Conway wins, I will have a D-KY avatar for the remainder of my time on this site.
7159  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Right-wing "centrists" preparing to seize control of the Democratic Party on: November 02, 2010, 01:48:36 pm
I'll believe it when I see it.
7160  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Was it Inevitable? on: November 02, 2010, 11:26:32 am
It's a sign of realignment when a party that is more unpopular than the other party, wins solely due to a vote against incumbency?

How many incumbent Republicans will lose?

Hint: (somewhere between 0 and 2 - and both of those 2 are freshmen elected in flukes)
7161  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Last minute poll: Will Republicans take the Senate? on: November 02, 2010, 10:59:38 am
House Republicans are generally considerably better than Senate Republicans, from a libertarian standpoint (same is actually true of House vs. Senate Democrats), although the GOP senate slate this year is probably the best since at least Harry Truman was president.
7162  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK: Hays Research/DSCC: Everything's tied in the final poll on: November 02, 2010, 10:57:44 am
Oops, last one was the local IBEW, this one's the DSCC.
7163  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: doesn't it seem strange... on: November 02, 2010, 10:48:03 am
They really aren't.  Their rhetoric is far to the right of their policy.
7164  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Last minute poll: Will Republicans take the Senate? on: November 02, 2010, 10:37:15 am
I'd define "conservative" as "would actually cut spending."  I'm being charitable when I say R+17.
7165  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Last minute poll: Will Republicans take the Senate? on: November 02, 2010, 10:29:07 am
no.  but the conservatives will have a working majority.

That would require something like R+17
7166  Election Archive / 2010 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK: Hays Research/DSCC: Everything's tied in the final poll on: November 02, 2010, 09:58:28 am
Wow.  Another poll commissioned by a local IBEW from a pollster that said McCain and Obama were tied in Alaska on election eve 2008.  That sounds like one to go in the database!
7167  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Brain vs. Gut on: November 01, 2010, 09:52:44 pm
For a little while I thought my senate prediction (made the 8th) was going to be a bit off the mark, but now both my brain and gut say it'll be accurate.

Brain says Patrick will win, gut says Baker.  Brain says 50 GOP pickups in the house, gut says 70.
7168  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: TPTTAA Media Vote on: November 01, 2010, 09:31:52 pm
JCP - Red
RPP - Tan
POP - Green
DXP - Orange
7169  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Suspicious package" contained "manipulated toner cartridge," wasn't from Yemen. on: November 01, 2010, 09:16:50 pm
You'd think that they could come up with a decent fake bomb and send it themselves instead of this nonsense.
7170  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Suspicious package" contained "manipulated toner cartridge," wasn't from Yemen. on: November 01, 2010, 09:15:00 pm
Not the manipulated toner cartridges!  Not those!  Whatever shall the terrorists hit us with next?!?
7171  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Is Obama a Keynesian? on: November 01, 2010, 09:12:02 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_23Nt5XumaU&feature=player_embedded

Wink
7172  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Palin Gives Tancredo Last-Minute Endorsement In CO-GOV on: November 01, 2010, 09:02:49 pm
The low-information voters are the ones still voting for Dan Maes.
7173  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / "Suspicious package" contained "manipulated toner cartridge," wasn't from Yemen. on: November 01, 2010, 09:01:58 pm
Roll Eyes

http://www.yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=2705
7174  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Palin Gives Tancredo Last-Minute Endorsement In CO-GOV on: November 01, 2010, 08:54:09 pm
Mixed blessing for him. It might peel off a few more Maes supporters but it could also scare undecided voters and push them into the Hickenlooper camp.

You really think someone voting for Tom Tancredo will be scared by Sarah Palin?
7175  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Was it Inevitable? on: November 01, 2010, 08:25:14 pm
Maybe the better question then is why 2006 was only D+31 as opposed to D+65?  Bush had significantly lower approval than Obama's on election eve.

Because the result in an "average" year is a small Republican house majority.
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