A state that was four points more liberal than the rest of the nation can easily go to Republicans. We don't know what the circumstances will be in 2016, but a five point Republican win isn't outside the realm of possibility. Obama has consistently flipped several states Kerry and Gore by 4-6 points.
A five point Republican win is out of the realm of possibility. The bottom has fallen out on the GOP with minority voters. Winning by 5 would require 68% of the white vote or so. Impossible.
Republicans at the moment have a minute chance of winning narrowly against Hillary Clinton and no chance in their current form to win convincingly against any remotely formidable Democrat.