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August 26, 2016, 12:01:14 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Kellyanne can keep Trump on a short leash, can he win? on: August 25, 2016, 02:23:53 am
Everyone has made up their mind on Trump. It's too late.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pew National Poll: Clinton +4 on: August 20, 2016, 04:57:21 pm
LV models don't really matter anymore now that Democrats have mastered the art of targeted early and absentee voting. The people will vote.
Have they really?  Why did they not use that in 2014? Does it work only presidential election?

When did they mastered it?  What evidence can you provide?

2008 and 2012? There's a lot of articles on the Obama campaign data and outreach operation that Clinton has now inherited. It's how the Democrats have locked up D+6/7 ID advantages in two straight elections.

For whatever reason, Democrats ran and hid during midterms refusing to attach themselves to the President or using the same kind of electioneering.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6 on: August 20, 2016, 01:59:15 pm
Clinton is only beating Trump 43-41 among 18-34 year olds in this sample. It's very clear that's where this consistent 6 point house effect toward Trump is coming from. There's no way he's going to come within 20 points of 18-34 year olds; hell, there's a chance he finishes third Johnson in this demo. 30-40 point loss is more likely.

Trash poll.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pew National Poll: Clinton +4 on: August 19, 2016, 02:10:28 am
LV models don't really matter anymore now that Democrats have mastered the art of targeted early and absentee voting. The people will vote.

I would seriously worry about Republican turnout. They tend to vote more on election day and about a third of Trump supporters don't actually like him. Plus, he can't seem break 40 percent in any poll.

It's easier to stay home on election day than with an absentee ballot. Clinton will spend money to make sure all her lazier voters will have mail-ins. Trump has no infrastructure to combat it.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/11 - Clinton +1 on: August 13, 2016, 07:20:12 am
why are millenials so conservative in this sample? they made a huge mistake there and their concept doesn't allow for it to be corrected.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: All about yourself! on: August 04, 2016, 12:06:51 pm
Hello, everyone! Many moons ago, I used to post here quite a bit (some of you may remember SpeedOfSound), but since so much has changed since then, it made sense to start over. I'm probably just around again for the election cycle, like I was briefly in 2012. I'm now a PhD student in Classics (Roman History specialist) in Texas, but not a whole lot else has changed. A mid-20's white dude living in the city on a grad student's budget. I'm still a far leftist who splits his ticket between 3rd parties and Democrats, an atheist, and a vegetarian. Still an avid sports fan, videogamer, and indie music fan. I hope to have some fun here on the political old stomping grounds and hopefully I'll still see some old souls I know hanging around this place. See y'all around!

welcome back.  don't read any of the posts in this thread.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: U.S. Sent Cash to Iran as Americans Were Freed on: August 03, 2016, 12:02:24 pm
isn't this exactly how the hostages were freed in 1980?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Romney actually won the popular vote ... on: August 03, 2016, 11:53:19 am
So, Redban, what happens if you take away Texas as well and look at 47 states?
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: No EV winner, could Johnson win in the House? on: July 29, 2016, 09:59:43 am
Fun fact: by law the House can only choose between the Top 3 candidates in electoral vote. Dems best strategy in a 269-269 tie would be to put up a third candidate and have some electors go faithless for them. Make the choice Trump, Clinton, or a Democrat even more despised.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Knife held to your throat... on: July 20, 2016, 11:23:04 am
Clinton.

If I'm wrong, I'll gladly accept the knife to the throat.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Upshot: GOP race looks Chaotic: It's Not. on: July 14, 2016, 12:28:49 pm
rofl
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pence to endorse Cruz today? on: July 14, 2016, 12:17:46 pm
Trump managed to dodge a bullet by not getting the endorsement of the very toxic Mike Pence.

lol
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP considers rabid anti-Muslim, pro-Putin general for VP on: July 09, 2016, 02:30:09 pm
So Trump is going all in on the George Wallace comparison with a Curtis LeMay, too!
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Clinton +5 on: June 23, 2016, 04:14:26 pm
wow not even Rasmussen can manipulate a tie/trump lead anymore--sad!
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll: Clinton 58% Sanders 36% on: June 14, 2016, 10:45:45 am
I guess this is useful to see what % are accepting Hillary as the nominee vs % still clinging to Sanders?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your VP shortlist on: June 08, 2016, 12:30:18 pm
1. Warren
2. Franken
3. Perez
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CLINTON CLINCHES on: June 06, 2016, 09:03:55 pm
They waited until everyone voted in 2008. Hillary can't win a majority of the pledged delegates without California. The superdelegates haven't voted yet and can change their mind at any moment. Such disrespect to those of us voting tomorrow. Scum.

They didn't wait in 2008. Hillary had a lot more superdelegate support in 2008 than Bernie does now, so it had to go all the way until the end.

Obama waited until the last state to announce that he had enough with superdelegates. He didn't need to wait to announce.

No. Obama did not have enough pledged + super delegates until South Dakota.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CLINTON CLINCHES on: June 06, 2016, 08:45:38 pm
They waited until everyone voted in 2008. Hillary can't win a majority of the pledged delegates without California. The superdelegates haven't voted yet and can change their mind at any moment. Such disrespect to those of us voting tomorrow. Scum.

They didn't wait in 2008. Hillary had a lot more superdelegate support in 2008 than Bernie does now, so it had to go all the way until the end.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Elizabeth Warren - good or bad VP pick for Clinton? on: June 04, 2016, 10:14:09 pm
She'll be a great pick.

And Mass fills Senate vacancies by special election not appointment (see Scott Brown) so no need to worry about Baker.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NM - BWD Global: Clinton +25 on: June 03, 2016, 10:27:25 am
unless I just happen to know every Sanders support in the state personally, this is junk. not going to be this lopside.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 taking Johnson/Weld seriously on: May 25, 2016, 12:20:07 am
Johnson/Weld's campaign would do best not to really discuss libertarianism but focus more on broad issues like term limits, campaign finance reform, and electoral reform.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News latino poll: Clinton 62, Trump 23 among Hispanics on: May 21, 2016, 12:06:40 am
Latino Decisions is the gold standard outfit here. Most polls in 2012 had Romney getting 30-40 percent. They were the only ones who predicted the 72% in late October.
23  General Politics / Economics / Re: 80% of business executives: raise the minimum wage on: May 10, 2016, 02:28:41 am
Or...just pay them more.

Increasing labor costs is unpopular with shareholders and boards. Perhaps executives themselves are powerless to make this decision in most cases.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Libertarian Party on: May 09, 2016, 02:44:20 am
I like the liberty Aryan party

will support it
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cruz's future on: May 06, 2016, 11:28:10 pm
I think he'll get primaried in his re-eleciton.
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