Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown. Is there one?
Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.
Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs. Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.
Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.
Is he? He just got reelected in his Beauce riding with nearly 60% of the vote, and the latest poll of Conservative supporters had him at 10% nationally and I presume most of that came from Quebecers.
He may be 'laughing stock' among non Conservatives in Quebec, but he seems to be very well liked by Quebec conservatives.
You're wrong. He's not popular at all outside the Beauce. His economic proposals interest me but I have zero interest in putting anywhere near first preference.