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May 24, 2017, 10:46:58 am
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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: THE ORB on: May 21, 2017, 07:22:14 pm
I don't think backing the Saudis over Iran is necessarily such a silly, wrongheaded policy (clearly a (((globalist)))), but fraternizing with them like this is just pathetic and unnecessary.

I don't think it's (((globalist))), it may be [[[globalist]]] or <<<globalist>>>.

it is a long-standing (((globalist))) stance to prefer saudi arabia to iran.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 2.0 on: May 21, 2017, 06:46:34 pm
CBS/YouGov poll of adults:

I am a strong Trump supporter, period - 19%
I am a Trump supporter, but to keep my support, he has to deliver what I want - 22%
I am against Trump now, but could reconsider him if he does a good job - 19%
I am strongly against Trump, period - 40%

Not exactly an approval poll, but if you grouped the people who say they support him and those who are against him, it's 41/59.

Also, deporting illegal immigrants and banning Muslims are more important to Trump supporters than cutting taxes.

And job creation is vastly more important to Trump supporters than either of those issues...
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Al Green threatened with lynching for saying Trump should be impeached on: May 21, 2017, 05:14:05 pm

bro people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones: if you whine like a lil b when people point out that you look like gollum of lotr maybe you shouldn't compare black people to apes??
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Al Green threatened with lynching for saying Trump should be impeached on: May 21, 2017, 04:14:47 pm
...

classic "reformed" white nationalist sanchez!
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Pew: 1/6 newlyweds are married to someone of a different race/ethnicity on: May 21, 2017, 03:50:45 pm
Whites and hispanics intermarrying is no surprise.  It's only the forces of the hard left that want to see Hispanics kept in a box.

Further proof that white Hispanics are no more of a minority group than Italians are.  In 30 years, society will probably see it that way (technically, America is actually getting whiter with each passing day).

And yet the candidate that you voted for insisted that Mexicans, who identify as "white Hispanics" on the census, are rapists, criminals and good-for-nothing. We aren't going to be forgetting this treatment anytime soon.

I'm half-white and half-Mexican. Society does not see me as white, I do not see myself as white etc. Maybe this will change at some point but I'll never forget that those who loved the Republican Party always put me in the beaner box. There's hundreds of thousands of other Mexicans like me.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Pew: 1/6 newlyweds are married to someone of a different race/ethnicity on: May 21, 2017, 03:47:51 pm
Whites and hispanics intermarrying is no surprise.  It's only the forces of the hard left that want to see Hispanics kept in a box.

The President of the United States ran a campaign founded on putting Hispanics in a box and pummeling them. Those who insist on making the inclusion and integration of Hispanic immigrant communities in the United States into a political issue are Republicans.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: America's best days on: May 21, 2017, 02:37:35 pm
1945 to 1970.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 19, 2017, 10:52:17 pm
1. Labour 79%
2. Plaid Cymru 76%
3. SNP 75%
4. LibDem 75%
5. Green 69%

As the English say, "Im labour"
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 19, 2017, 07:04:35 pm
I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 19, 2017, 07:01:01 pm
I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

Most 65+ voters are baby boomers now, many, if not most, were born between 1948 and 1952, meaning that they were 18-25 during the halcyon days of marijuana usage. What you'll find in survey data is that baby boomers are much closer to the views of Gen X/millennials on marijuana than to the silent generation, which is increasingly insignificant.


Millennials - 73% support legalization
Gen X - 57% support legalization
Boomers - 56% support legalization
Silent Generation - 33% support legalization

The old stereotypes about the elderly no longer make sense. Someone who is 65 now, without question, has done more drugs than someone who is 22 and has pretty relaxed/"liberal" views on the subject.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 18, 2017, 03:21:04 am
2/3rds majority makes it hard for Impeachment to be completely baseless. I don't think that this will become a trend if there isn't cause for it.

All Brazilian politicians are corrupt - Dilma's VP and likely successor is by any standard clearly worse on this score than she is - which means that 'cause' can always be found. This kind of behavior can become addictive and cause serious damage to institutions.

no one saw this coming!!
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How would a Hillary Clinton presidency have been right now (May 2017) on: May 18, 2017, 02:41:02 am
It would be a trainwreck that's only partially the fault of the conductor rather than the Chernobyl that we're living through.

13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: May 17, 2017, 01:03:21 pm
As Quist Breaks Out, Decades Old Lawsuit Sheds Light on Montana Democrat’s Marriage and Career
Montana Democrat's account of surgery, preexisting condition challenged by doctor, legal records show

Washington Free Beacon/Brent Scher
May 16, 2017 2:00PM

Another oppo dump on Quist.  The doctor in the medical malpractice case Quist has used as part of his narrative about why he didn't pay his taxes alleged that Quist had genital herpes, tested positive for tuberculosis, and smoked pot.

oh my god, this is despicable stuff.

this is going to backfire imo. this comes across as being a petty and insignificant smear at a time when serious issues vital to the national interest are being discussed. so what if quist has herpes?
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Open Borders on: May 13, 2017, 01:25:26 pm
Good
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 13, 2017, 01:12:47 pm
Example of why the Lord Ashcroft model is almost certainly junk

Poll of Northeast voters:
Labour 42.6%
Conservative 32.9%

How the Northeast actually voted:
Labour 46.8%
Conservative 25.3%

There are massive sampling issues here. I doubt that they can be resolved easily as it is most likely a case of Labour voters not wanting to respond to surveys. This could mean that they won't be voting or are shy Tories but it could also mean that they are shy Labour voters.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you know any "electoral oddballs"? on: May 12, 2017, 10:07:37 pm
2012 - Mitt Romney
2016 (Dem Primary) - Bernie Sanders
2016 - Hillary Clinton

Hilariously, I think this friend regretted voting for both Clinton and Romney within weeks of voting for both.

Another fun one:

2012 (primary) - Santorum
2016 (primary) - Rubio
2016 (general) - Clinton
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: May 12, 2017, 04:22:09 pm
Current day Battersea is not the Battersea of 1997...
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: White House to display 2016 election map to assuage Trump's ego on: May 12, 2017, 03:06:56 am
Does Trump lurk on the forum?
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which New Jersey municipality would the previous poster's ideology resemble? on: May 06, 2017, 10:12:57 pm
The Sopranos
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread on: May 06, 2017, 02:26:42 pm
https://youtu.be/NQYCT2HEfhQ?t=869

A true luminary in the Republican Party

In an mirror-1894esque wave, I suppose he could go down

If ID-1 was the ID-1 of 2006, it wouldn't take a 1894-style wave to drag Labrador down. I'm not so sure about the ID-1 of 2017 though.

For those who are unaware, this district continues to be transformed by waves of out of state migrants who are importing foreign far-right ideology to this district, bringing with them a style of Evangelical Christianity that never existed here in 1970, insane notions of governance and so on. Sadly, I think these nuts have influenced rural locals.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 10 Years of Posting on: May 06, 2017, 02:16:45 pm
I think people are misunderstanding what I'm saying. Politics is probably more important now than it was 10 years ago, much less 15 years ago. We're in the midst of some sort of inflection point that will form the basis for new policy regimes, ideological tendencies and so on. I don't want to exaggerate or overstate the case for this. These moments happen more frequently than people like to believe and oftentimes don't portend dramatic change. This does not change the fact that we could experience a torrent of dramatic shifts that transform our political process and society.

With this in mind, my argument/point is that the manner in which this forum has traditionally viewed politics no longer makes sense. The horse race is no longer entertaining, it is nauseating. The worshipful attitude most posters display/used to display towards political figures is strange. The focus on PVIs, hard stats, polls and so on feels increasingly outdated; polls are becoming more and more useless, PVIs clearly don't say much during turbulent times etc.

The forum has changed a lot and its changes have been in the image of societal changes but, simultaneously, the forum's attitudes remain quaint and out of step with society to the point that it's hard to take it seriously. I say this as someone who is a forum vet.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / 10 Years of Posting on: May 05, 2017, 11:36:10 pm
It has been 10 years and a day since I joined the forum as "EvilMexicanDictator". When I joined, I was almost 13 years old, a young politician named Barack Hussein Obama had begun to captivate the public, the housing bubble was bursting and most of us were blissfully unaware of how impactful this was going to be, Tony Blair was still PM, the Iraq War was still a quagmire and the "surge" had yet to bear any sort of fruit, people still talked about peak oil.

Suffice it to say: things have changed a great deal since then. I'd go so far as to argue that this forum no longer has much of a reason to exist. When I first joined the forum, it was somewhat normal to have a some level of confidence in the government and some sort of faith in the basic decency of (some) politicians. This meant that the politics of the "horse race" was seen as a bit of fun, equivalent to rooting for a team. This is no longer the case. Politics is now poisoned. Neo-Nazis are allowed to post propaganda throughout the forum (and in real life). Political discourse online is an open sewer that is thoroughly vile.

I don't mean to suggest that anything going on today is unprecedented but rather that it would be unthinkable to any of old-timers like me that the forum would be what it is today or that, far more importantly, politics would evolve in the manner that it has. An insane orange clown is President, Britain, under the helm of a lame Maggie Thatcher impersonator, is exiting the EU, what we think of as "liberal democracy" is receding around the world, globalization is being rolled back etc. To be blunt: the past 10 years have been a horrifying time to be alive for anyone who is idealistic or who believes in a brighter tomorrow. It's wild that I discussed these dark trends with y'all over the past ten years, as I was coming of age.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Buzzfeed journalists caught wishing for assassination of Trump on: May 05, 2017, 12:39:32 am
In private, most Democrats/liberals have said something like this. When a figure is as reviled as Trump the phrase "I will dance on his grave" will almost always turn into "I hope someone gets him" after a few drinks. No one actually means it, of course, but the point is to signify that the person uttering these comments hates Trump.

Maybe Republicans shouldn't have elected a walking bucket of turds and dildos!
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread on: May 01, 2017, 03:18:00 am
Lol@the trolls' and Democrats' obsession with calling Gianforte a New Jerseyan. Other than the fact that it's not even true anymore (he moved to Montana 20 years ago) and completely irrelevant, it's like they're talking about nothing else anymore and giving Gianforte the opportunity to cast himself as the outsider in this race. No one cares.

Er, that's the point of the attack, Gianforte is an outsider in the sense that he's not a Montanan. This actually matters a great deal. Unlike, say, Idaho, Montana hasn't had the sort of out of state migration that has meant that a city like Billings is filled with non-natives who dominate the state. Montana is very insular and it's a state with a very particular political culture.

The reason why Democrats focus on public lands is straightforward: it highlights how Gianforte isn't a Montanan. No one from the West fully recognizes how seriously people out here take the idea of public access to streams/lakes. It's seen as an entitlement. Whenever the rich block access - fairly common - it's anathema to basic sentiment of the region.


With this in mind, here is my prediction:

Gianforte 53%
Quist 45%

Quist, as it turns out, is a very flawed candidate. However, I'm looking forward to Gianforte losing like a dog in 2018!
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Poll: Grade trump on his first 100 days in office on: April 28, 2017, 03:07:42 am
He spent nearly a third of it on vacation at his own properties, which in itself sets off a lot of ethical violations, especially since he is still making money off of these properties. Marred in scandal, his NSA had to resign, attorney general had to recuse himself, and the House Intel chair had to recuse himself, all due to similar reasonings. Got literally nothing accomplished. The things he did were either struck down in court or not really on him (Gorsuch was more McConnell's doing). Crappy foreign relations. Constant mixed messaging. No popular initiatives or proposals. No legislative accomplishments. Blames Democrats for failures of the Republican congressional majorities.

It's a D-.

That's not a D-...

What is up with this forum and giving politicians generous grades? I imagine that if Hitler was President the forum would "grade him on a curve" and give him a collective D. "Disagree with him but very effective at murdering Jews, also, he likes dogs Smiley"
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