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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Breitbart: Riots erupt in Sweden's capital just days after Trump comments on: February 26, 2017, 12:59:05 am
Wouldn't this count as a remarkably peaceful night in Baltimore?

I note tumbleweed in response to this.
There aren't riots every night in Baltimore. The crickets you hear are in response to another attempt at whataboutery.

I'm pretty sure that a few murders, a dozen stabbings and tens of physical assaults are vastly less peaceful than some kids committing vandalism...
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: February 09, 2017, 02:28:52 pm

Die Linke isn't what it used to be.  Plus the 3 parties are already in a watermelon coalition in Thuringia and there have been a lot of discussions between the 3 parties.  I know you're a right winger so I probably can't convince you, but calling Die Linke illiberal in 2017 is false.

I do not that much care about your conventional right-left. I have no problem with the Greens in Germany whatsoever. But die Linke is a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas.

The CDU is also a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas from a liberal perspective...

We have a different definition of "liberalism" I guess Smiley

I don't think limiting the rights of immigrants to have dual citizenship, proposing to ban the burqa, historically bashing Turkish immigrants, and, in general, treating immigrants with utter contempt is remotely congruent with liberalism as a contemporary ideology. I suppose that it's pretty congruent with what liberalism meant when it was actually a well-defined ideology that influenced the world but  that sort of liberalism is disgusting, elitist and dead. More generally, the CDU is not a liberal party. Characterizing it as one is very bizarre. I suppose it can be argued that aspects of its traditions stem from the DVP and the old liberalism of German Protestantism but it's fundamentally a conservative party. It's changed quite a bit over the past few decades but its roots continue to define the party and those roots are decidedly illiberal.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: February 08, 2017, 03:19:52 am

Die Linke isn't what it used to be.  Plus the 3 parties are already in a watermelon coalition in Thuringia and there have been a lot of discussions between the 3 parties.  I know you're a right winger so I probably can't convince you, but calling Die Linke illiberal in 2017 is false.

I do not that much care about your conventional right-left. I have no problem with the Greens in Germany whatsoever. But die Linke is a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas.

The CDU is also a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas from a liberal perspective...
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: February 07, 2017, 11:57:34 am
Here's a fun Martin Schultz fact: he loves the late Eric Hobsbawm. Schultz said "Eric Hobsbawm was a man of extraordinary qualities. His books have greatly inspired and influenced my political and historical thoughts."

Here's a photo of him reading the Age of Extremes.



He's winning me over!
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Two separate townhalls disrupted on: February 04, 2017, 09:59:54 pm
Quote
Despite the show of support for Obamacare at the town hall, McClintock said he believes the majority of Americans want a better health care plan.

“If people loved [Obamacare]," he said, "Nancy Pelosi would still be speaker and Hillary Clinton would be president."

Every time one of these town halls is disrupted, Republican representatives reveal how tin-eared they are. Instead of engaging with the concerns of protesters, they claim that they are a tiny minority or anarchists (?) or "professional protesters". Maybe this is rhetoric and they're actually concerned but, in any case, this does not bode well for them heading into November. Displaying contempt for your constituents in public is usually a losing strategy.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: February 02, 2017, 05:35:22 pm
Color me skeptical that many center-right voters would support Hamon over Le Pen in the end...
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: February 02, 2017, 11:30:20 am
My comments earlier weren't meant as criticism of Macron so much as they were meant as evidence of Macron's electoral weaknesses. If you wish to defend Macron, be my guest, but I find it hard to square his past remarks with his standing in polls and I don't think that consistently coming across as a tone-deaf defender of the European Union is a great way to win elections in the Current Year.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: February 01, 2017, 05:48:43 pm
I maintain that the dynamics of the race as it currently stands are such that Le Pen's second round chances are significantly understated. Each of her opponents are less well-defined than her but that's going to change and change rapidly. Further, during the first round, there's no "forced choice" scenario where voters are forced to think long and hard about who they prefer if they dislike two candidates. In particular, Macron is an odious guy and his odds are vastly overstated right now. He's come out of nowhere but his profile reeks of baggage that, when closely examined, is repulsive.

Rothschild "globalist" vs. Le Pen is not a match-up that's going to necessarily end well, even if it might seem that way right now. I'm thinking that Macron has the best odds and that Hamon/Fillon would probably lose to Le Pen in the second round but I maintain that things aren't as rosy as they seem.

How is Macron "odious"?

Macron is a pompous and arrogant man who is also an investment banker. His greatest hits include calling workers "illiterate", telling a protester that "the best way to buy yourself a suit is to work", calling workers "alcoholics" etc. He's a high-energy Mitt Romney or Michael Bloomberg as far as I am concerned.

Would I vote for him if I were French in a run-off against Le Pen? Absolutley! Would I consider him for the first round? Sure, stopping Le Pen ought to be the priority. That said, I am very skeptical of his chances. He is a walking stereotype.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: February 01, 2017, 02:04:14 pm
I maintain that the dynamics of the race as it currently stands are such that Le Pen's second round chances are significantly understated. Each of her opponents are less well-defined than her but that's going to change and change rapidly. Further, during the first round, there's no "forced choice" scenario where voters are forced to think long and hard about who they prefer if they dislike two candidates. In particular, Macron is an odious guy and his odds are vastly overstated right now. He's come out of nowhere but his profile reeks of baggage that, when closely examined, is repulsive.

Rothschild "globalist" vs. Le Pen is not a match-up that's going to necessarily end well, even if it might seem that way right now. I'm thinking that Macron has the best odds and that Hamon/Fillon would probably lose to Le Pen in the second round but I maintain that things aren't as rosy as they seem.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: January 31, 2017, 11:33:58 am
If you want to continue the polarization of world politics...

Eh, I'm not really sure if there is such a thing as 'world politics' in that sense. A lot of apparent similarities between the political situation in this or that country are pretty superficial rather than being part of a global trend. For instance the current fiasco in France is the result of the tottering tower of bullsh!t that Mitterrand built and that subsequent PS politicians have added to - this essentially very conservative party with little to say about anything that nevertheless specialises in elaborate rhetoric and vague promises of sweeping social change - toppling to the ground. It's grim stuff, but it won't be the end of the Left in France.

Oh come on, you can't deny that there is a common trend at work everywhere from T***p to Le Pen, Korwin to Wilders, and Farage to Salvini. Sure, every country comes to this trend through its own contextual factors, but when it's happening basically everywhere it can't be a coincidence.

Historians are always going to be resistant to this kind of narrative, Tony. Tongue
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Are Italian Americans more fiscally conservative or socially conservative? on: January 30, 2017, 09:53:43 pm
I'd say that they're more fiscally conservative and racist (on average). Social conservative isn't a label that applies to them imo. In the US, "social conservatism" tends to mean "religious right" and Italian-Americans definitely are not part of the religious right...
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: January 30, 2017, 01:22:31 pm
I think it's safe to say that the consensus that Macron is the strongest possible candidate to take on Le Pen is premature. I'm pretty skeptical that a Rothschild banker who is campaigning on the EU and who has previously come across as a vulture capitalist is the best person to take on Le Pen...

There's nearly 3 months left in the campaign. Hamon could catch fire. He could also flop dramatically. I think the latter is more likely but the idea that it's time for left-wingers to tactically vote/support Macron is inane.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What are voters of the minority party generally like in your area? on: January 29, 2017, 05:48:48 pm
I grew up in neighborhood that gave Clinton around 25% of the vote so I'm pretty well-suited to address what it's like to be a Democrat in an ultra-GOP community and who these Democrats tend to be.

First off, I'd say that those who are Democrats in north Idaho tend to have a tremendous persecution/martyrdom complex. They assume that if they put yard signs in their lawn in favor of a Democratic candidate that they'll be burned at the stake or have their cars vandalized. They're terrified of their neighbors' views. It wasn't this way ~10 years ago but since 2008, this is a widespread sentiment. The acrimony and toxic hate of 2016 proved that these sentiments were correct; anyone who had a Hillary sign in their yard in 2016 would have their house egged in my home town.

As for who Democrats are, that depends on the area/region in question. I grew up in Kootenai County, which doesn't have much of a Democratic tradition but, even then, Democrats tended to be old folks, pensioners who remained infatuated with people like Cecil Andrus. Outside of this demographic, were public sector employees, the poor and deviants of various kinds. The former were, without question, the Democratic base voters. Postmen, bus drivers, teachers and, to some degree, unionized electricians/construction workers, who are effectively public sector employees, are the base where I'm from. They're regular lower middle class people, who tend to mostly mirror the lifestyles of those who are around them. It's my understanding that, in most very Republican communities in flyover country, Democrats tend to be of this variety. As for the poor and deviants, they don't matter/count for the most part. They're excluded from public life and don't tend to hold deep political views. They swung massively towards Trump this year.

Presented below is a list of people I knew who were Democrats where I'm from:
-substitute teacher, union member, former engineer
-pro-bono lawyer
-small business owner who runs cleaning business; self-employed, hires a few employees
-nurse who aspires to be a pastor
-hs english teacher
-hs english teacher
-hs math teacher
-hs and ms english teacher
-hs bio teacher
-hs history teacher
-community college poli sci instructor

This list isn't scientific and it's heavily biased towards teachers because those are the adults I'd tend to interact with. That said, it's unquestionably the case that the core of the Democratic Party in any small town is going to come from, in descending order: teachers, other public sector employees (excluding cops), nurses, union people and professionals.

With this in mind, it's not a mystery that Bernie Sanders crushed Clinton across the board in the rural US, particularly in ultra-GOP counties. Democrats in these places are lower middle class, public sector employees. They vote for Democrats for economic reasons. They tend to be socially liberal but they're not BLM types or whatever. They're common people with beer guts and awful cultural tastes but who are fundamentally tolerant and, frankly, left-wing.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: We knew for 15 MONTHS what trump's plan was towards middle east immigration on: January 28, 2017, 10:50:00 pm
Did you guys just assume he wasn't actually going to follow through with a campaign promise? The kinks regarding green cards will be worked out in due time but you will have to live with the fact that trump used CONSTITUTIONAL AUTHORITY to restrict certain immigration.

Are y'all just going to freak out every time he does something that you knew for more than a year he said he was going to do?

What in the bloody hell did you think he was going to do regarding refugee issues? Continue the obama practice?

Oh, I had no doubts he would do exactly that. This is why I have been freaking out continuously.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Iran to ban U.S citizens in response to Trump banning Iranian citizens on: January 28, 2017, 10:41:51 pm
Great idea, please anger the Donald. Best way to end the disastrous Iran deal and have the U.S. end the country's nuclear program with force, which should have happened years ago already.

At the end of the day, you chose to stand with this fascist instead of standing with academics.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Federal Court Issues National Stay of Trump's Refugee Ban on: January 28, 2017, 09:41:45 pm
Can you guys read, or are you just so blinded by your little "win" (the only one you've gotten at all for a good while) that you don't realize that it literally only applies to those already in transit when the order was issued. In two days, the situation will be virtually unchanged.

You really should be deported, Trump would approve, impoverished Hispanic family that's a drain on white America.

He's not Hispanic. He's 100% bridge creature.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DNC Chair Candidate: My job is to tell white people when to shut their mouths on: January 27, 2017, 03:29:09 am
I didn't know Idaho had Democrats
And this is why it doesn't have very many Democrats.

No, it's not?

Idaho is inhospitable to Democrats because Republicans successfully destroyed the institutions that gave the Democratic Party its base (unions). They remade the state, turning Kootenai County, Ada County and Canyon County into massive parking lots where Evangelical and Alex Jones listening freaks congregate. Every year, dozens of weirdos with arsenals move to the rural hinterlands nearby by Highway 95 north of Coeur d' Alene to build their redoubt and they've accumulated to the degree that they matter.

What makes Idaho different from some other "working class" state is that its disgusting tendencies are imported from deranged nutcases from California. North Idaho used to be the most left-wing part of Idaho and now it's a complex of freaks, a series of guns and ammo stores lining a highway. Mining companies and smelters poisoned the working class, they're dying of opiate abuse etc. Freaks are moving in to replace them. The working class doesn't even remember its identity, which doesn't help.

Boise is a ray of hope, I guess, but it's never going to become an agglomeration that supports urban professionals who would vote for Democrats at the rates necessary to make the state competitive. That said, Democrats could put a token in the Governor's seat in 2018; there's definitely a ticket-splitting tendency that remains.

Surely Mormonism also plays a role in it, yes?  At least in eastern Idaho?  It always had a Republican tilt to it, but that's exacerbated since the 1980s.

It plays a role in Idaho's historic tendencies but not in its long-term trend. Mormons still have a high propensity for ticket-splitting for LDS Democrats, as they always have. Balukoff did well because of this.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DNC Chair Candidate: My job is to tell white people when to shut their mouths on: January 27, 2017, 02:39:06 am
I didn't know Idaho had Democrats
And this is why it doesn't have very many Democrats.

No, it's not?

Idaho is inhospitable to Democrats because Republicans successfully destroyed the institutions that gave the Democratic Party its base (unions). They remade the state, turning Kootenai County, Ada County and Canyon County into massive parking lots where Evangelical and Alex Jones listening freaks congregate. Every year, dozens of weirdos with arsenals move to the rural hinterlands nearby by Highway 95 north of Coeur d' Alene to build their redoubt and they've accumulated to the degree that they matter.

What makes Idaho different from some other "working class" state is that its disgusting tendencies are imported from deranged nutcases from California. North Idaho used to be the most left-wing part of Idaho and now it's a complex of freaks, a series of guns and ammo stores lining a highway. Mining companies and smelters poisoned the working class, they're dying of opiate abuse etc. Freaks are moving in to replace them. The working class doesn't even remember its identity, which doesn't help.

Boise is a ray of hope, I guess, but it's never going to become an agglomeration that supports urban professionals who would vote for Democrats at the rates necessary to make the state competitive. That said, Democrats could put a token in the Governor's seat in 2018; there's definitely a ticket-splitting tendency that remains.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mexican reaction on: January 27, 2017, 02:21:31 am
7. Our other partners, of course, should be reminded that, Trump or no Trump, Mexico will still be exactly in the same spot geographically in 2021 or 2025.

Assuming it doesn't completely collapse and have to be occupied by the US military for security purposes before then, of course.

The former is not impossible, the latter would be extremely costly. Mexico is a mountainous country, with wild terrain and numerous hiding places. The guerilla war (much of it stuffed by the former drug gangs) would be horrendous. And, of course, keeping your troups south of The Wall would make that Eall easier to penetrate in the other direction as well. You really want to bother about Mexican terrorists in your cities? They will not have far to go.

He forgets that there would be tens of thousands of American terrorists of Mexican descent. I'd side with the Mexican guerillas against the fascist, of course. Smiley
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mexican President Cancels Meeting With Donald Trump After Border Wall Order on: January 26, 2017, 03:00:22 pm
With our departure from NAFTA either Nieto or one of his capos will have to meet with Trump or his capos to hammer out a trade deal, regardless of the wall thingy.

Mexico would be wise to avoid engaging with Trump on the off-chance that his administration goes down in flames. The Republican strategy of obstruction and avoiding dialogue can pay dividends. Why bother renegotiating NAFTA if the other party might be imprisoned?
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mexican President Cancels Meeting With Donald Trump After Border Wall Order on: January 26, 2017, 02:53:39 pm
He deserves no credit for this. This was the only way he could avoid being lynched in public at some point over the next year. The notion that "Mexico hasn't been taking care of its own people" has an element of truth to it but it's also somewhat bogus. As ag says, the issue is that the Mexican state is corrupt and inefficient; this means that some people benefit handsomely from social programs and others don't. The PRI built a pretty formidable welfare state during the "Mexican miracle" years but it was only for segments of the population because they were a syndicalist party. Public workers did well, collecting a lot of rents, the industrial proletariat did less well and campesinos were fleeced, hardly benefiting with the exception of corn subsidies. If you were only informally employed, you were even worse off than campesinos for the most part and, in Mexico, there are many who are not formally employed.

My family benefited from the state. They're not outliers. There are many middle class Mexicans who are public sector employees or who have benefited from Mexican higher education etc. Unfortunately, there's a lot of luck involved, which is common in states that have a history of clientalism.  It's necessary to present both facts here: Mexico, contrary to common belief, is not an impoverished country and some of its social programs are functional and successful, and some of its industries and markets are flourishing. On the other hand, Mexico is a deeply segmented and unequal country, where millions live in conditions reminscient to Guatemala while millions drive luxury sedans in major cities.

I have to say, it's astonishing how Americans feel fit to opine on Mexico when they know so little about it. We are neighbors but only one neighbor has a good understanding of the other neighbor. Mexicans are well-versed in all things American these days. Americans continue to see Mexico as a land of ignorant peasants and criminals. Even as we lament off-shoring to Mexico, we can't conceive of that as something that embodies how Mexico is changing.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump expected to sign EO targeting refugees on Wednesday on: January 26, 2017, 12:04:37 pm
Excellent idea. Don't be like Europe. Stop Muslim immigration.

Just a shame it's on the basis of country instead of religion. Political correctness gone wild, sad!
You're embracing the same ideological tendency that left Jews to die in the Holocaust and that will, most assuredly, lead to similar atrocities in the Middle East going forward. Many gay people will die in the Middle East because of this Executive Order, including a language instructor at a university I went to. He applied for asylum this fall and came out to his family in Iraq. Now he's going to go home to die.

This isn't even about "having a heart" per se. You have to acknowledge that there are disturbing consequences when you try to regulate the flow of people in this manner. It's unnatural, it generalizes with a broad-brush etc. No one should cheer something like this. It's something that I can understand tolerating but celebrating an EO like this is disturbing.

How far we have fallen.
The situation of Jews before the Shoah in Europe and that of Muslims in the Middle East right now is uncomparable because Jews' behavior in Europe was different than Muslims' behavior in the West right now (I don't recall a Jewish 9/11). In addition to that, European antisemtism is a problem not caused by Jews whereas the ongoing stream of intra-Ummah violence is a problem endogeneous to the Muslim world; why should the West bear the negative consequences?

Note that since I'm not historically illiterate, I'm not talking about "not integrating" or whatever; that's just fine by me. Ostjuden in Berlin didn't exactly assimilate either. I don't mind Muslims dressing differently, praying differently, thinking differently, or eating differently, and I would be a massive hypocrite if I did. What I mind is too many Muslims expecting non-Muslims to conform to their rules, committing acts of terrorism because of their religion, and blaming everything on the West while living conditions for a Muslim in the West are infinitely better than for a Muslim in the Middle East. Violent crimes by Muslim youth cannot solely be understood through socio-economic disparities or whatever: they are rooted in a culture that fundamentally disrepects non-Muslims and views taking over non-Muslim areas through intimidation and street terror as legitimate. Moreover, many Muslims' tendency to act on their disapproval of Jews and LGBT people and on women's freedom poses a big problem and is perhaps inevitable. It is that type of behavior I loathe, and we've got a big problem on our hands here in Europe.

LGBT people are a group that should absolutely be part of an exception to the rule and if this executive order would not include such an exception, that would be an aspect I most definitely do not support.

One of the ironies is that any thinking person who is actually concerned about the deeply reactionary tendencies of political Islamism and who does not use that term as coded language for "brown people that I dislike" would recognize that the greatest victims of this tendency are those who are nominally Muslim (closeted gay people, aspiring professional women, artists etc.). The only way to provide safe harbor for them is to accept refugees who are Muslim. This quandary is probably unresolvable for those who are sincere about fearing Islam rather than fearing Muslims.

This is why earlier I referred to the Holocaust, though the Pogroms in Russia would be a much better comparison. Yes, various dissidents are not religious/ethnic minorities but they do face the prospects of political oppression, discrimination and so on. Atrocities will be committed against them. The West's refusal to stand up for its own values in these cases is despicable and betrays the real reasons for these restrictions.

I'd add that screening based on religion wouldn't work. You wouldn't want to force potential refugees to declare themselves as non-Muslim when they're living in the Middle East. That could be a death sentence.

Just some things to keep in mind, I guess. People are free to support these measures but they ought to acknowledge the collateral damage when doing so. Is that actually congruent with the values held by Europeans/Americans?
23  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Do you believe that many or some are TOTALLY Depraved? on: January 26, 2017, 01:56:31 am
Yes.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: US-Mexico border wall on: January 26, 2017, 01:43:00 am
I'm not saying I am in favor of a wall, as a matter of fact, I have argued against it, but think of all the jobs this wall will create.

Building camps to concentrate Muslims would also create jobs.



I simply stated a fact. Here are other public works projects that would create jobs:
-gas chambers for white men
-slaughterhouses for all dogs currently in the US
-blowing up the eyesore that is Yosemite but with dynamite
-killing all sparrows with slingshots
-forcibly demechanizing agriculture
-demolishing all of New York City

Of course, you are an economic illiterate who supports Donald Trump so I might have to more clearly spell this out for you: "creating jobs" is a miserable excuse for public works project. Even during a deep recession, which we are not currently in, it's critical to choose investments wisely to seek the highest return. Building a wall is not such a project. It's a frivolous waste of money, a grand scheme that's all optics and that would achieve nothing outside of satisfying the ego of an insecure man.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: US-Mexico border wall on: January 26, 2017, 01:36:56 am
And this won't even stop illegal immigration, because these funny things called planes exist, and people can still cross the border legally and then overstay their visa. I guess any spending at all for the arts, humanities, and education is wasteful, but spending billions on a plan intending to keep "those people" out (even if it's ineffective) is worthwhile.

I do not think that +20 million foreign nationals are going to illegally cross the border via plane, bro.

And yes, a wall will absolutely DRASTICALLY reduce illegal immigration, as well as human trafficking and drug cartels. When Hungary built a fence - not wall - fence - illegal immigration dropped by 95%. Walls work. That's why they exist. That's why homes have them. Walls are physical barriers to entry. Children understand this.

And yes, spending money to secure our borders is absolutely well worth the tax payer money. Even ignoring the catastrophic affect illegal immigration has had on our economy and jobs (and social programs), think about how much cleaner our streets will be when the huge amount of drugs that cross the border is stopped. How many teenagers would live past there teens because of less drugs on the streets? How many families would not be destroyed, neighborhoods ripped apart. Crimes not committed. Open borders is the drug cartel's dream come true.

And Mexico loves it because they can successfully deport their poverty to us. And democrats like it because they want to import millions of new voters. Money and power. That's all its been about. Screw the American people who suffer the consequences. These yokels don't have millions to donate after all.

You're not righteous. You're continuing the support of human misery. 


This is an interesting diatribe. It's too bad that it's totally out of whack with reality: border crossings are at all-time lows, there's no evidence to suggest that immigration reduces wage levels for native-born Americans or increases levels of inequality, immigration has almost certainly contributed to America's relatively impressive economic performance, immigration is why our entitlement programs are in solid shape going forward (were in solid shape?) etc.

You can scapegoat immigrants and decide to deport them because you disagree with their political views but it's best to be honest and say "I want to deport immigrants because they're potential Democrats and not for any real reason".
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