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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread on: Today at 12:22:04 am
Le Pen 24.1%
Macron 23%
Fillon 21.9%
Melenchon 17.3%
Hamon 5.7%
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 22, 2017, 03:28:13 pm
ComRes

Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

That would see a majority of 200 with Labour reduced to 140 seats

This is utterly insane; for Labour to do this badly, they would need to be in power during the Great Depression and betray their voters.

You were saying?

That was the allusion, yes.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 22, 2017, 03:02:44 pm
ComRes

Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

That would see a majority of 200 with Labour reduced to 140 seats

lol why would anyone put stock in polls that produce figures like this? This is utterly insane; for Labour to do this badly, they would need to be in power during the Great Depression and betray their voters. I don't think that having an incompetent, bumbling leader is sufficient (though it is necessary) for the Tories to garner 50% of the vote.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Domestic terrorist group "By Any Means Necessary" (BAMN) on: April 21, 2017, 06:35:35 pm
Quote
I walk into the right-wing side. A group of white men with matching comb-over haircuts are wearing skull half masks and shouting at the left-wing side. I pull out my phone and start to film the skull guys.

"Are you with us?" one asks.

"I'm a journalist," I say.

"Get the  out of here then," another says, shoving me. I continue filming.

"Fake news!" one says into a megaphone pointed at my face. He wanders off and starts chanting, "Build a wall! Build a wall!" Another puts up his fists and shuffles his feet like a boxer.

Nearby, I overhear two men discussing the nuances of their white nationalism. One has a shield made of skateboards painted with the flag of the black sun of Odinism, an archaic symbol appropriated by neo-Nazis. The other calls himself a National Socialist. When I photograph them, they both sieg heil.

Another man, with an American flag wrapped around his face, tells me he came to defend "Western civilization." Nathan Domigo, a 30-year-old ex-Marine and the head of the white nationalist group Identity Evropa, is milling in the crowd. Later in the day, he'll be filmed punching a woman in the face during a street brawl. (After the video goes viral, the woman, Louise Rosealma, says she has been facing harassment and death threats.)

http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2017/04/far-right-white-supremacists-berkeley-protests-antifa-trump
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Berkeley Police Department on: April 17, 2017, 05:59:57 pm


they had sympathetic women of color at the nuremburg rallies, did they

I'll never understand the freaks who are non-white and turn up to stand in solidarity with people who want to throw them in chains but they exist, who care tbh.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Berkeley Police Department on: April 17, 2017, 05:53:11 pm
Wait ... did I sleep through some constitutional amendment that says people with abhorrent views no longer have the right to free speech? Because even assuming these rightwingers are unrepentant Nazis, I don't see why that precludes them from having a free speech rally.



looks like a free speech rally to me. ah yes, the noble nazi salute, that free speech symbol.

funny how every symbol of free speech seems to be a swastika or an apartheid south africa flag but when the red flag is flown it's a symbol of authoritarianism.
As I mentioned before a couple of guys throwing up Roman salutes amongst a large crowd of people does not a nazi rally make. Furthermore the question here is about the police response to leftist aggression. I would guess that the guy in the photo is probably not a big fan of free speech. That's his opinion (assuming he's not just LARPing). That doesn't mean that he was provoking or starting any violence.

There are people in this thread who don't agree with free speech. One of them has a signature that includes a celebration of a totalitarian murderous government that abolished all freedom of speech. Does that give people the right to throw massive rocks at her 'in self defense'?

I don't care about what sort of Nazi these freaks are; the man interviewed in that photo claimed he is a National Socialist. Maybe he's not a Hitlerite. Who cares. He's some sort of Nazi/fascist. The semantics don't matter.

And yes, traveling to Berkeley of all places to throw up Nazi-salutes is provoking violence in the sense that these people knew it was going to happen, prepared for it and embraced it. Should that have been the response? No, but this is what provocation looks like. If I traveled to your house and started calling you a pedophile, a child-raper and a Nazi, that would be provocation. If I did it in the public square, it would likely be legal (let's say you live in America for the sake of simplicity). If you responded to be with force, that would be illegal. However, the violence would have been provoked. I was asking for it and, in fact, demanding it.

There's nothing noble or worth defending about the creeps who went to this rally. They're barely human beings as far as I am concerned. If someone supports censoring them, I disagree with them, but that's besides the point. I have the right to discuss the ideological objectives of people who host rallies like this and to avoid discussing the violent response to them. I won't play into their narrative of martyrdom. It's sought out. They are not victims. They are wastrels, degenerates and losers.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Berkeley Police Department on: April 17, 2017, 05:50:04 pm
Anyways, I see that people are deflecting from my chief point, which is that these are not free speech rallies. Fine, I agree that the law should be enforced impartially to punish those who physically assault others; I hope that is universally agreed upon. Nevertheless, we must not pretend that the fascist thugs who support seizing the state to curtail political activity on the left and to oppress racial/ethnic minorities embody the freedom of expression or care about the freedom of speech. They do not and this is not what they stand for. If you are a sucker who guzzles snake oil, it might be easy to fall for the ploy that Milo or goose-stepping fascists are supporting the freedom of speech; they are trying to provoke violence so that they can be martyrs.

This will be my last post in this thread.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Berkeley Police Department on: April 17, 2017, 05:37:06 pm
Wait ... did I sleep through some constitutional amendment that says people with abhorrent views no longer have the right to free speech? Because even assuming these rightwingers are unrepentant Nazis, I don't see why that precludes them from having a free speech rally.



looks like a free speech rally to me. ah yes, the noble nazi salute, that free speech symbol.

funny how every symbol of free speech seems to be a swastika or an apartheid south africa flag but when the red flag is flown it's a symbol of authoritarianism.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Berkeley Police Department on: April 17, 2017, 05:28:31 pm
Anyways, I agree that the Berkeley PD is soft, weak and allowed this to happen: they should have rounded up as many of these fascists thugs as possible at the first sign of violence. Of course, police officers anywhere and everyone are staffed with fascists and Republicans so this is probably asking too much, I realize that it's in their nature to bloody socialists and to coddle neo-Nazis so this policy is the best policy possible.

     DFB, I know you know better than that. The anarchists have consistently shown up and started violence. Demanding that the police arrest their targets when they are reacting to Antifa provocation on account of those targets being "fascist thugs" is Orwellian in the utmost.

I'm actually very serious about this. The media's portrayal of these confrontations is very skewed; the people who attend these rallies are not typical Trump supporters. They are fascists who seek to provoke violence. In the interests of fairness, I support locking up anti-fascists as well, that's a given because I'm not a nut, but the notion that one side does this and the other does not is a myth.

I'm not sure what there is to discuss here tbh. The law should be enforced in a fair manner. I hate fascists and sympathize with anti-fascists, even though they, too, are rather stupid.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Berkeley Police Department on: April 17, 2017, 03:27:02 am
Anyways, I agree that the Berkeley PD is soft, weak and allowed this to happen: they should have rounded up as many of these fascists thugs as possible at the first sign of violence. Of course, police officers anywhere and everyone are staffed with fascists and Republicans so this is probably asking too much, I realize that it's in their nature to bloody socialists and to coddle neo-Nazis so this policy is the best policy possible.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Berkeley Police Department on: April 17, 2017, 03:20:28 am
    I know I was doubtful before when you said that liberal institutions were tacitly allowing this stuff, but it is amazing to see how this played out just as everyone expected. I'm starting to think that the only way a free speech demonstration can happen in Berkeley without Antifa violence is for the National Guard to be deployed to keep the peace here.

I love free speech demonstrations:





This dude looks like he loves free speech:


These guys love freedom and national socialism:
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: why the tech sector is much more liberal than other "big business" in history? on: April 14, 2017, 02:41:49 pm
You really believe that there's something novel about self-assured tycoons-turned-philanthropists spending billions toward the realization of wacky utopian schemes?

I have no idea what you're referring to.

And then I think this is an unfair point; the sort of projects that sort of industrialist were keen on were generally far more worthwhile than the bilge advocated by techtopians and almost certainly left more tangible legacies (i.e. Bournville remains a thoroughly charming suburb with a very high proportion of social housing and as such is a real asset to Birmingham for multiple reasons).
You might disagree but I think that was a function of the fact that the period in which these men lived was anything but conservative, in both a political and cultural sense. A different world was being built and there was something practical rather than utopian about these schemes. The present has few of these characteristics.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: why the tech sector is much more liberal than other "big business" in history? on: April 14, 2017, 02:38:26 pm
The tech industry is fairly liberal, though that is more a function of the age distribution within the industry than anything else, but it is neither left-wing nor supportive of redistribution. Remember, the support for a UBI stems from the belief that their innovations will transform society, granting them immense power and wealth, to the extent that mass unemployment is generated. They support the UBI because they fear the working class. They are the only true Utopians left but their Utopia is not left-wing, it is decidedly Randian, ego-driven, masturbatory, promoting a vision of society where individual tycoons with scientific insights and industrial know-how usurp governments and the public. In practice, and I think this is very interesting, Musk, Thiel, Zuckerberg, and Bezos come closer to being 19th Century industrialists than anything else. They are open about pursuing market power. The Gigafactory gives Musk control of upstream production, creating a massive integrated supply chain. This is not Normal.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat on: April 11, 2017, 02:22:04 am
just saw the results from Uttar Pradesh

Sad
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 07, 2017, 01:03:12 pm
I figured that Macron's polling surge would prove to be temporary as he really is a paper tiger candidate but I never figured that a communist dinosaur would be the cause of this. To be fair, Melenchon appears to be drawing votes from all directions (?).  This election is bizarre.

Anyways, it's not terribly shocking that polling is very volatile in a year where both the PS and the LR are in a state of disarray. This has meant that both Le Pen and Macron have coalitions that are fairly diffuse; Le Pen has a solid core of supporters that's rather large but a non-negligible minority are from "neither left nor right" types who weren't FN supporters until recently. It goes without saying that Macron's coalition is very unstable. There's plenty of small-s socialists who were prepared to vote for him and loads of right-wingers who were prepared to do so.

I'm not sure why I posted this honestly. My point is that Melenchon probably has room to grow from Le Pen, Hamon and Macron. Time to hit the panic button if you're a neo-liberal. Hit the blunt if you're a true comrade and lover of communism.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-34: Who wins the general? on: April 05, 2017, 02:56:38 am
Here are the results of CA-34's general election:

Jimmy Gomez 81.01%
Robert Lee Ahn 18.99%

17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL Special Election Poll on: March 31, 2017, 03:36:17 pm
As of right now, I'd say that the smart money has to be on Quist. Trump's approval rating is abysmal, a congressional Republicans are even less popular than Trump, Montana is the sort of state where there are loads of Trump voters whose support is very contingent etc. Things could change but, in the here and now, we're in circumstances where the governing party is almost certainly going to lose special elections left and right.

An imperfect analogue can be found in 2007, when Cazayoux and Childers won ultra-GOP seats in special elections. Bill Foster also triumphed against Oberweiss (sp?) in a special election in the Chicagoland suburbs back when IL-14 was very Republican, voting for George W Bush by a ~10 point margin. There's an argument to be made that conditions are very different now. There's not necessarily Trump fatigue, the economy isn't weak etc. Nevertheless, things are very, very dire for Republicans and special elections, like by-elections in the UK, are special occasions where people are more comfortable voting for a candidate of a party they'd otherwise not vote for because they can "send a message".

edit: this does not mean that "people should get their hopes up" or anything like that. Conditions could change, Quist could turn out to be an awful candidate, the Democratic Party could ignore the race etc. However, if this race is pretty typical and Trump still has approval ratings between 38-40%, I think Quist should be favored to win.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rural Left vs Urban Right on: March 30, 2017, 10:44:54 pm
I wouldn't vote.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I just drove through two counties that voted for Trump on: March 30, 2017, 07:27:31 pm
lol at the people who are triggered by this

it's BRTD guys. He's always been like this!
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread on: March 30, 2017, 06:44:20 pm
Is there a way that you could host an interactive map somewhere else but post it here and not elsewhere so we can use the map?

Anyways, congrats on the project, I bet you're going to get a full-time job working for the Upshot after this!

(This is a ridiculous request but I want the maps!!!!)
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: 100+ civilians killed by American bombing. on: March 29, 2017, 10:41:26 pm
What makes the refusal to vote for Hillary Clinton even worse, is that the people who refuse to vote for her can't comprehend the idea that, yes, this country and, more broadly, the world could easily become a toxic heap of radioactive sludge that would be deadly to all, regardless of one's skin color or one's religious preference or one's sexual orientation. Ultimately, our continued existence as a species is what is at stake in this election: we have a candidate who is mentally unstable and one who is not. We have one who believes that climate change is a hoax and one who acknowledges that is real. We have a candidate who believes that the Geneva Convention's binding rules of war ought to be shredded and we have a candidate who pledges to respect the Geneva Convention. I could go on and on and on like this but you get my point: we are standing on a precipice right now. There's a clear choice between someone who embodies evil in every possible way and someone who is totally palatable. Make the right choice and feel proud about this. Own your decision to vote for Hillary Clinton and feel proud about it: you are doing your part to save the world and you will be pumping the breaks on the doomsday train.

I don't think I'm exaggerating about this: over the past few years, the world has become increasingly dangerous, increasingly intolerant, increasingly militaristic and increasingly Evil. No more. I'm not willing to put up with this anymore and my vote for Clinton has symbolic value as a vote against the monsters who thrive on bigotry and hatred and Know-Nothingism and militarism and racism and ignorance. Make it stop: vote for Clinton.

A vote for Clinton has symbolic value against militarism?  Good grief.

Welp, you can't say that I didn't try to warn the forum that this was one of the biggest Trump risks.

     You really don't have ground to gloat here. Clinton was a militarist candidate who enabled intervention in Libya and pushed for the same in Syria. That Trump is also a militarist is regrettable, but it's not like we had a serious alternative on this matter, your own melodramatic hyperbole aside.



"it's not like we had a serious alternative on this matter"
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Newsweek: Comey tried to reveal "Russiagate" months earlier, got blocked by WH on: March 29, 2017, 08:58:52 pm
When will we stop hearing about this? There's so many issues the Democrats can attack Trump on, but no one really cares about Russia anymore.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25 on: March 29, 2017, 07:23:47 pm
Actually, Montana is much less urban and more rural than people think (not majority rural, but pretty close to it, IIRC). So when the Democrats win statewide, it's not just because they run up the margin in Missoula, Bozeman and Helena (and keeping it close in Bozeman/Yellowstone County!), but they also have to avoid getting clobbered in the rural areas.

Anyway, Democrats in the state really despise Gianforte with a passion, LOL. The press is definitely on Quist's side, which is much more helpful than a GOTV operation or something like that. I also agree with Skill and Chance that this is an easy race for Bernie Democrats to win. If they can't win here, there's not much reason to believe they'll win elsewhere.

Republicans definitely dodged a bullet when the healthcare bill failed, so Gianforte still has a chance.
Of course you also forgot the Democratic bases of Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, Trump and Fox almost flipped them, but Gianforte got destroyed in both. If they go from being 70% D to 50-50, that hurts Democrats and helps Republicans going forward.

That's not a long-term trend and there's no reason to believe that it will "help Republicans going forward"...
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Non Swing Voter's name on: March 28, 2017, 02:44:36 am
Arguably the worst poster on the forum. Say what you will about jaichind but the man is smart and I can see why he wants to let poor people die in gutters: he really is intellectually superior to most people. Non-Swing Voter is a humdrum mediocrity. His contempt for people derives from his inferiority to most.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Crazy Bernie" to introduce socialized medicine bill on: March 28, 2017, 02:41:42 am
If we eliminate the private sector for one industry, it's not like the bernie left is going to stop there. They'll push for another industry to be destroyed by the government, and so on, until "the free market" looks like China's - a few private businesses are allowed so they can look capitalist, but everyone knows they're not actually capitalist (And it would not matter if we still elected our leaders - Socialism is an economic idea). The only reason the bernie left doesn't say this is because if they did so, the entire democratic party would suffer losses far worse than they did in 2010. We have to take a stand here, while capitalists have the advantage, to prevent the erosion of the capitalist values under which this country was founded and must keep to remain the greatest country in the world.

Nah, that's not accurate. These days socialists support the idea of worker-controlled industry in the form of cooperatives (think: market socialism) and these people are on the fringes.

Anyways, considering how strong China's economic performance is, that isn't much of a boogey-man these days, is it?
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