Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 25, 2016, 11:41:10 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 171
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Idaho Politics Weekly: Trump +21, but #Under50 on: July 21, 2016, 04:20:48 pm
Here are three possible scenarios in Idaho:

Median Prediction:
Trump 57%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 9%

Low Republican Turnout:
Trump 54%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 9%

Johnson Catches Fire:
Trump 50%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 18%

For those who doubt the latter scenario, it's worth noting that Clinton and Trump are arguably the most despised politicians in history in Idaho (and Utah). Nearly everyone in Idaho is afflicted by Clinton derangement syndrome. Similarly, Trump is toxic in Idaho and not only among Mormons. Outside of some small pockets of logging and mining territory, Idaho Republicans are ideologues, people who exude a "consistent conservativism" that prioritizes economic issues and that tends to be a bit libertarian flavored, particularly regarding land-use, guns but also marijuana, NSA spying and foreign wars. Trump is anathema to these types, who quite liked Cruz. This doesn't even begin to mention Trump's weaknesses among ag-business types/farmers, who are very reliant on immigrant labor, and Mormons.

Unless this election is very close, ala 2000, Idaho's swing map will be a veritable bloodbath. It's very unlikely that Clinton will perform well but Trump will be murdered by voters who have already shown a propensity for voting for third-party candidates and by Mormons who, in the right circumstances, give Democrats 30% of the vote or so. If the latter scenario occurs, which would be a perfect storm that's incredibly unlikely, Clinton could make this a 10 point race.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a McGovern 1972/ Trump 2016 voter on: July 05, 2016, 11:05:08 pm
A manual laborer.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP/Americans United for Change: AZ, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI on: June 28, 2016, 02:18:19 am
NH - Tilt D
WI - Lean D
IA - Likely R
OH - Tossup
PA - Tossup
FL - Tossup
NC - Tilt R
AZ - Lean R
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 24, 2016, 06:17:41 pm
LibDems should run in the next election on Europe.

That wouldn't be a terrible move. It is noteworthy that, in 2001, the LibDems performed quite well in Richmond and Kingston. I imagine that left-oriented strategic voters in Tory-held targets were strongly in favor of Remain so they should be willing to back the LibDems.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum 2017? on: June 24, 2016, 04:12:01 pm
Obviously - I can't vote. I thought the last ref was devoid of a plan and had no cause other than emotion and sentiment. BUT this time there would be a legitimate and tangible justification...
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 24, 2016, 03:54:42 pm
Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?

Some analysts say that it would have an impact because some people would seek more stability. PP will try to take advantage. Others say it will have little impact. The scandal involving the minister of interior adds even more uncertainty.

If there's any lesson to be learned from the Brexit/Grexit referenda, it's that voters are not all that concerned about "stability" nor are they apt to listen to financial commentators or center-right politicians who preach doom in the face of political change. At least, that would be my take: there's little reason to believe that PP would benefit from this; maybe more naranjas will vote for PP but, outside of that, I don't see any benefits for Rajoy.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 19, 2016, 01:35:38 pm
Why is Rivas-Vaciamadrid a stronghold of the left?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Sanders be given a speaking slot at the DNC if he refuses to endorse on: June 18, 2016, 12:49:00 am
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CA-Field Poll: Walker/Bush & Hillary ahead on: June 16, 2016, 11:05:48 pm
Hillary is only popular among far right Democrats like those in California. The true progressives in Oklahoma and Idaho hate her.

Prescient!

As usual, I'll point out that Idaho Democratic voters are more left-wing than California Democratic voters. Ralph Nader won 2.45% of the vote in 2000 and he was a write-in candidate; that translates to something like 10% of Democratic voters casting a ballot for him. In California, Nader won 3.82% of the vote.

I'm not sure where you got the impression that Idaho Democrats are conservative; they tend to be secular, lower middle class or working class and they're disproportinately public employees. Generally speaking, these are the conditions that produce left-wing political views among white voters in the US...

Note: when I say "Idaho Democrats", I'm referring to people who almost always vote for Democrats, not people who identify as Democrats.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 16, 2016, 08:49:43 pm
Are you guys paying attention to the youth unemployment figures?

Or, even more strikingly, the underemployment figures?

The idea that the Coalition are the "better economic managers" needs to die a quick, well deserved death.  I mean, for god's sake, Turnbull drones on and on about the transitioning economy and yet he doesn't even have a vision for what the economy will look like outside of the prospect of it being easier to be an enormous corporation.  It really insults our intelligence, to try to foist the discredited trickle down economics on us, and yet, it looks like people are stupid enough to buy it.  Wow.

It's very peculiar that, no matter what parties of left do, they will never be seen as "better economic managers". Gordon Brown and Kevin Rudd were excellent "economic managers" and, yet, both Labor in Australia and Labour in the UK have been damaged by the impression that they are bodies filled with profligate wastrels and moronic nincompoops. There's obvious reasons for this phenomenon: the financial press/media isn't composed of economists but, rather, is composed of "business commentators" who have taken, at the most, two macroeconomics courses and who have obvious interests in bashing the left. This, at least, is my view.

I'm very sleep right now so this isn't one of my better posts but I, too, have been confused by the inability of both parties to control the narrative, especially considering the fact that their opponents have forwarded policies that have been unmitigated economic disasters. In the US, I can understand why the average voter has a modicum of faith in Republican talking points on the economy: it's been years since they've had total control over the federal government so they don't have a clear record of failure and can be seen as some sort of an alternative. Meanwhile, in the UK, the Tories are clearly responsible for a double-dip recession! Abbott forwarded austerity measures for no apparent reason!
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: London mayor bans "body shaming" advertising (that depicts revealing women) on: June 15, 2016, 06:16:36 pm
This type of feminist policymaking is very stupid. Why target the symptoms of gender inequality using ineffectual policy tools that will accomplish nothing other than pissing everyone off? "Body shaming" will proceed, as it always has, whether or not there are adverts depicting unrealistic beauty standards; adverts use these beauty standards because, in large part, they're already present in society.

However, I have no time for people who don't think that "body shaming" is a problem. Maybe they haven't spent a lot of time with women because they are virgins but, as a matter of fact, a number of pathologies associated with body shaming are major problems for women. Men can't wrap their heads around "anorexia" or whatever because we aren't subject to strict standards. I suggest that you make an effort to understand this stuff though.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: A Lesbian Texan is Being Held at a Gay Conversion Camp Against Her Will on: June 09, 2016, 07:22:50 pm
This, more or less, is why I support granting more legal rights to teenagers...
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: June 04, 2016, 12:12:27 am
TheDeadFlagBlues
Arizona
Arizona Is A Free Nation And Not A Part Of Atlasia Party
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: HC: People say, I really like you, I just dont know if I can vote for a women' on: June 01, 2016, 10:41:49 am
It's fairly plausible that there are quite a few elderly women, particularly immigrants, who feel this way. It would make sense that they'd feel comfortable vocalizing this view to Hillary Clinton as a way of seeking re-assurance that she's capable/qualified.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What does Hillary need to do in order to appeal to more white males? on: May 27, 2016, 09:15:05 pm
She could adopt some of Sanders' positions and support decriminalizing marijuana, for one. She could also refrain from running on gun control, which would make sense considering that the type of "swing voter" who's in favor of gun control is already pretty repulsed by Trump.

In general, making her college plan more encompassing/aggressive, running against Trump's abuse of construction workers and his corporate greed might pay dividends in winning over "white males". These changes would also play well with the electorate as a whole and wouldn't seem like ridiculous panders. Even if they appeared to be artificial, a move to embrace more of Sanders' rhetoric/platform combined with a good VP choice (Franken or Warren) would demonstrate that Hillary is "for real" and "gets it".

Will she do this? I'm not sure but I'd prefer that Hillary run on the broadest possible anti-Trump message rather than "slicing and dicing" the electorate, a move that worked in 2012 but that failed miserably in 2014.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: GOP will become "workers' party" on: May 27, 2016, 07:27:51 pm


Sanders supporters are about as "internationalist" as Clinton supporters; one could argue that they are more passionately "internationalist" where it actually accounts. It's one thing to question the merit of free trade and it's quite another to support subjecting immigrants from the Middle East to an all-encompassing police state...
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: GOP will become "workers' party" on: May 27, 2016, 07:13:40 pm
 In Austria last Sunday about 86% of blue collar workers voted for the "right wing" candidate Hofer against the "left-wing" candidate Van Der Bellen.  In some European countries the perceived more nationalist, pro-low or no immigration parties are becoming the manual workers party.

This is just the restauration of the pre-Mussolini status quo.

wtf

Before Mussolini, the working class were not part of "nationalist" political parties. In fact, they were part of internationalist political parties and the most active among them saw themselves as sharing more in common with other workers than with their capitalist compatriots. I know you know this because you aren't a fool but I'm pointing it out to remind you that your narrative is stylized and designed to fit your worldview.

The media has decided, per usual, that working class whites and poor whites in the West are to blame for the rise of the far-right and xenophobia. Little focus or attention has been directed towards the fact that, in actuality, it is the lower middle class that is the far-right's base. Protest votes might be cast for the FPO or for Trump or the FN by the working class but the party activists are definitely not working class.

I'll grant that the far-right in the 21st Century derives its support from a much wider base than the far-right of the early 20th Century, which was almost exclusively a middle class force, but, regardless, it's simply not true that union members or tradesmen particularly gravitate towards Trump or the far-right. This is a claim that's desirable if one is liberal because it allows forces of democracy to detach themselves from those pesky working class agitators who have the temerity to question aspects of "neo-liberalism". Alas, it's entirely false, as is your bizarre claim that Sanders supporters will gravitate towards Trump when, in fact, Sanders supporters are quite comfortable with free trade and internationalism, as are supporters of parties like SYRIZA, Podemos and the like.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Posters in Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri on: May 27, 2016, 04:44:34 am
tfw: u think u a peacekeeper but u actually a strange mix of morgan industries and the human hive.
19  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Hypothetical: God is disproved on: May 24, 2016, 08:15:24 pm
This thread summarized: man attempts to convince others that, contrary to what their preferences might tell them, that they should actually partake in counterfactual conversations that do not amuse them in the slightest.

Why am I posting in here? I'm not sure but this thread is a sight to behold. The OP basically slapped his dong out on a table to taunt others and some people are defending his taunt. What if a Christian posted a thread titled "Hypothetical: Jesus Christ returns to the Earth and tells Everyone that he's Lord and Savior"? I'm assuming that you wouldn't bother participating! Not because it's "implausible", because this thread is equally implausible, but rather because it wouldn't interest you; it's a question designed to irritate people, not to enlighten them in any way.  I don't think there's any point in dressing this up.
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you have voted for in 2004 Democratic Primaries on: May 19, 2016, 03:35:17 am
In retrospect, I'd probably vote for Dean.

How I'd rank my ballot:
1. Howard Dean
2. John Edwards
3. John Kerry
4. Al Sharpton
5. Dick Gephardt

I would refuse to vote for Clark or Lieberman or Kucinich in a primary.

John Edwards is on the list because, even in 2004, he ran on a pretty left-wing economic platform. I supported him in 2008 because I was a naive fool. However, I think that his brand, however fake it was, was quite appealing and hearkened back to way the Democratic Party was in the 1960s and 1970s.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVWyoQ5xlOs
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AZ-PPP: Trump and Clinton Close in AZ on: May 18, 2016, 07:00:26 pm
Some things to note:
-outside of Latino Decisions, pollsters are notoriously bad at finding representative samples of Latino voters
-It's very unlikely that the Hispanic electorate will stay somewhat stable. It's likely going to increase by a great deal and these added voters will be more anti-Trump than those who are in the current pool

Arizona is fool's gold if we assume a natural demographic trend wherein the electorate only becomes somewhat more Hispanic. It's not if we expect, as we should, that there will be a very intensive voter registration effort there.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump wins on: May 16, 2016, 09:26:43 pm
No offense ag, but I think you are painfully out of touch with American politics. The Republican Party will never be a remotely "left-wing" party; it remains staunchly opposed to unions and the welfare state. It's actually gone further off of the "deep end" on these issues. Unless you believe that free trade and financial deregulation are "left vs. right" issues (they are not), there's no evidence that the GOP will move to the left on any issue nor is there any evidence that the Democratic Party will move to the right on any issue. I suppose that it's quite likely that the Democratic Party might become the party of "free trade" though. I mean, it's not as if the Democratic Party was ever an "anti-trade" party anyways...
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does this forum completely fail to understand working class whites? on: May 12, 2016, 08:28:17 pm
A solid majority of working class whites (outside of the South) are loyal Democrats, and most have more liberal views in general (but particularly on economic issues) than middle and upper class whites (which are the bulk of this forum's posters, so...).

Agreed, but many people think upper-income blue collar workers (like owners of a plumbing company), who are really Republican, are part of the working class.  That's the confusion, I think.

Eh, there's plenty of evidence that suggests that highly-skilled blue collar workers, who tend to operate as individual contractors, are fairly Democratic. This shouldn't be that surprising considering where "building trades" skills tend to be attained (as "apprentices" in union shops).

For instance, look at "verdant labs" project that lists the partisan affiliation of various occupations and notice the discrepancy between "skilled trades" and "construction". Those who define themselves as "electricians", "handymen", "carpenters", "welders" and "mechanics" are far more Democratic-leaning than their, typically skilled, peers who are "foremen". Plumbers are, well, unique in that they tend to make large sums of money and, oftentimes list themselves as "plumbers", they simply own plumbing businesses. Other skilled workers in the building trades who own their own "businesses" oftentimes own a business composed of one worker.

Also, without question, those in the building trades or, in general, who are "skilled" manual workers are working class. In fact, throughout history, they have defined the working class. Strangely enough, and contrary to what Marx would have predicted, it has been the labor aristocracy that has tended towards radical political action/organization and that tends to have the strongest sense of class identity. Organizing workers in heavy industry was a major challenge in the late 19th and early 20th century; artisans, on the other hand, have been in trade organizations for centuries, which, naturally, lends itself to political mobilization.

Note: much of this is an over-generalization and is a bit hyperbolic but it's worth considering. It's taken as conventional wisdom that, say, a custodian is, all else equal, going to be more left-wing than, say, an electrician but, in truth, the electrician is more likely to be a very active "union man" (or woman) who votes in every election.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: California Senate Primary on: May 11, 2016, 05:47:33 pm
The general election should be an interesting means to determine which racial minorities Republicans in California dislike more: will they vote for the Black woman with the Anglo last name or for the Mexican lady? I don't buy that ideology will play a big factor in this choice.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Rfayette (read quote before answering) on: May 11, 2016, 04:31:47 pm
Your kind promotes a deeply disturbed worldview in which it is perfectly acceptable to demean and debase immigrants and their children for having the deeply discourteous desire to maintain cultural traditions or to fly the flag of their native country.

Here's the thing, though... if you're a person of Mexican descent who lives in the United States, that's obviously because you believe that the United States is a better country the Mexico*; so, why wouldn't you do everything in your power to assimilate to the country that you yourself (implicitly if not explicitly) recognize as superior?

I don't ask this in a snarky or condescending manner, by the way: as someone whose last immigrant ancestors came to this country around the turn of the twentieth century, I'm interested in seeing the outlook of those more in-touch with the immigrant experience.

*Incidentally, this line of thinking can be employed as a theological argument: If the God that Muhammad preached about really were the author of human history, wouldn't people from Christian countries be begging to immigrate to Muslim countries, not the other way around?

I am not particularly representative of Mexican immigrants but, what I can tell you, is that most Mexican immigrants are not of the opinion that "America is superior". They tend to think that it offers more economic opportunities and, perhaps, a higher quality of life but they do not think that America is superior. Generally speaking, immigration is an economic phenomenon so it's not much of a surprise that immigrants tend to resist assimilation. It's their children that assimilate or who are integrated into American or Canadian or British or French society; the parents rarely do so.

Anyways, my general response to sentiments like these is to say "what I do in the privacy of my home is none of your business". Further, who I am friends with is none of your business and the language that I choose to speak in with my friends is none of your business.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 171


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines