Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 28, 2014, 01:29:39 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 139
1  General Politics / Economics / Re: US unemployment rate decreases from 6.3% to 6.1% in July 2014 on: July 27, 2014, 08:28:07 pm
I've become more convinced that AggregateDemand is simply a bot hooked up to a database of conservative buzzwords and talking points. This explains why it's impervious to facts and rational thought.

GDP growth is lower than the marginal growth-rate of public debt. The most indebted generation in American history is on the hook for the biggest unfunded pension/healthcare liability in American history. There are reasons to be optimistic about the future, but if you don't understand the precariousness of our current situation, you need to pay attention.

People were complaining about the economy in 2006, during Bush's second term. We have 2% more unemployment and we've doubled the national debt, since then.

What do our "unfunded pension/healthcare liabilities" have to do with the unemployment rate?
2  General Politics / Economics / Re: Federal Debt to Reach 106% of U.S. Economy in 2039, CBO Says on: July 27, 2014, 08:19:32 pm
This chart is meaningless: you can't forecast growth rates, revenue or government spending for a lengthy time horizon. The forecasts of astrologists or palm readers are as accurate as the forecasts of economists. This isn't an indictment of economists: you can't accurately predict the behavior of political actors.



3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: An open letter to Benjamin Netanyahu on: July 26, 2014, 10:37:19 pm
Are you a Jew?
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: An open letter to Benjamin Netanyahu on: July 26, 2014, 08:23:51 pm
paid for the MDMA?
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Weird dreams you've had involving politicians on: July 26, 2014, 08:13:53 pm
I once had a very vivid dream where I got into a helicopter with Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales. We flew around a palatial city that was strikingly similar to San Francisco before we landed in a swamp flanked by massive cedar trees. Hugo Chavez gave me a hug and called me his comrade. I forget what happened after this. I am pretty sure the swamp had dinosaurs or alligators and I felt really chill regardless of their presence.

The sad part is that I actually had this dream...

A few others:

-I had a dream where Dalton McGuinty was assassinated by the Quebecois terrorists from Infinite Jest.
-I had a dream where I was anxiously watching election results stream in from Philadelphia. I was worried because Ed Milliband was only getting 19% of the vote against an unlabeled blue bar that was massive in comparison to his red bar. I woke up very worried and was immediately embarrassed/confused.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Most progressive working class areas (outside New England) on: July 26, 2014, 06:23:51 am
Detroit is the obvious answer.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Anti-Mormon bigotry on the Atlas on: July 22, 2014, 06:30:03 pm
I've never met a Mormon who wasn't an incredibly decent, upstanding, and generally nice person.  Ever.  I'm not sure what is is, but the LDS does a good job stamping out some really friendly folks.

Mormons are conditioned to appear decent, upstanding and nice on the surface via their missionary experience. Once you come to know enough Mormons, you realize that Mormon politeness is an idiomatic peculiarity of their unique culture rather than a generalizable personality trait.

Do you think anybody really thinks otherwise? The idea that adherence to a specific religion creates generalizable personality traits, as opposed to cultural peculiarities, in pretty much any circumstance is a little silly.

Why are you nitpicking the part of my post that is the least interesting/useful?

The way I read that post you really only made the one point in it. I'm not sure what conceptual division between the first and second sentences you're going for here.

I just wanted to point out that missionary work has an impact on how Mormons are perceived in the wider world because it characterizes there mannerisms with the wider community and also their idiomatic tendencies amongst themselves.

I didn't take a Religion 200 class and I don't need to be condescended to because of it.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Anti-Mormon bigotry on the Atlas on: July 22, 2014, 06:07:12 pm
I've never met a Mormon who wasn't an incredibly decent, upstanding, and generally nice person.  Ever.  I'm not sure what is is, but the LDS does a good job stamping out some really friendly folks.

Mormons are conditioned to appear decent, upstanding and nice on the surface via their missionary experience. Once you come to know enough Mormons, you realize that Mormon politeness is an idiomatic peculiarity of their unique culture rather than a generalizable personality trait.

Do you think anybody really thinks otherwise? The idea that adherence to a specific religion creates generalizable personality traits, as opposed to cultural peculiarities, in pretty much any circumstance is a little silly.

Why are you nitpicking the part of my post that is the least interesting/useful? What I was trying to say is that Mormonism doesn't habituate a positive application of ethics, which results in increased politeness and friendliness as an outcome. It trains missionaries who must interface with the wider world.
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Present Israel-Palestine Conflict Thread on: July 22, 2014, 02:03:09 pm
Israel's actions in the Gaza strip aren't surprising or shocking in the least. They have a clear cut casus belli and Hamas should be punished for its actions. That isn't why this particular conflict is so troubling: Netanyahu is using the threat of Hamas' tunnels as a justification for formally withdrawing his (misleading)  public support of a two state solution and this comes as a Naftali Bennet is pushing for a de facto annextion of the West Bank. Something is rotten in Israel.

I'm an "anti-Zionist" because I am concerned for Jews who have no interest in living in an Israel that treats them as gentile-loving traitors.  Israel legitimizes anti-semitism as a valid worldview every time it defends its settlements. Every time it displays ultra-jingoistic behavior by bombing Gaza hospitals, imprisoning those who work for NGOs and bullying the US, it makes the world a much darker place for Jews.

So you consider anti-semitism a valid and legitimate lens through which to look at the world?  Wow...

Anti-semitism is evil. If you're serious about combating it, it's of the utmost importance to consider what factors nurture anti-semitism. Israel's actions have unquestionably turned millions towards anti-semitic beliefs.
10  General Discussion / History / Re: Talk to Gully about matters to do with culture, history, 'theory', etc on: July 22, 2014, 11:34:29 am
Why has Protestantism spread so rapidly among indigenous communities in Central America?
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Benjamin Netanyahu on: July 22, 2014, 11:29:52 am
a cretin
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Anti-Mormon bigotry on the Atlas on: July 22, 2014, 11:25:57 am
I've never met a Mormon who wasn't an incredibly decent, upstanding, and generally nice person.  Ever.  I'm not sure what is is, but the LDS does a good job stamping out some really friendly folks.

Mormons are conditioned to appear decent, upstanding and nice on the surface via their missionary experience. Once you come to know enough Mormons, you realize that Mormon politeness is an idiomatic peculiarity of their unique culture rather than a generalizable personality trait.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Anti-Mormon bigotry on the Atlas on: July 22, 2014, 11:13:23 am
Mormons display an active disinterest in historical facts related to the indigenous peoples of North America. Why should I respect their disturbing cult when they give no respect to the well-documented histories of my ancestors? I have Mormon friends but I abhor their religion and I won't apologize for it. I also abhor snake-handlers, ultra-montane Catholicism and other primordial  denominations that reject modernity in favor of superstition, sexism and bigotry.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Good Post Gallery II on: July 22, 2014, 06:06:11 am
Oh, Atlas.

Just pointing out that a sexually liberal environment really doesn't have to be an issue. In fact, I suspect rape happens more in sexually repressed environments for a variety of reasons. Just look at India, a country where it's illegal to kiss in public.

And all this nonsense about curfews or single-sex dorms...say what? THere is none of that here. The idea that if you allow men to hang around women rape is inevitable is precisely part of the rape culture that needs to be tackled.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Douthat: Stopping Campus Rape on: July 22, 2014, 06:05:18 am
Remember the 2012 election cycle, when the running joke was the GOP should avoid talking about rape at all costs? Well, the same is true for the Atlas Forum. Nothing that has been posted here is productive or insightful or useful.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYC approves apartment building with separate entrance for poor people on: July 22, 2014, 06:00:52 am
So where are the twitter campaigns? The circulating tumblr blogs? The protests from nearby college kids and activist groups? Still off somewhere blaming the ills of society on Seth Rogen?

I know this doesn't fit your strawman characterization of SJWs or young progressives but there has been plenty of outrage circulating in the usual outlets.

This story strikes me as usual Upworthy-esque clickbait. There have been plenty of instances in which public housing designed to promote social mixity have become de facto segregated. We already live in a tragically inequitable society whether or not some low-level bureaucrat that works for the city of New York approves of a rich-only doorman.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Present Israel-Palestine Conflict Thread on: July 22, 2014, 02:36:27 am
Israel's actions in the Gaza strip aren't surprising or shocking in the least. They have a clear cut casus belli and Hamas should be punished for its actions. That isn't why this particular conflict is so troubling: Netanyahu is using the threat of Hamas' tunnels as a justification for formally withdrawing his (misleading)  public support of a two state solution and this comes as a Naftali Bennet is pushing for a de facto annextion of the West Bank. Something is rotten in Israel.

I'm an "anti-Zionist" because I am concerned for Jews who have no interest in living in an Israel that treats them as gentile-loving traitors. Israel legitimizes anti-semitism as a valid worldview every time it defends its settlements. Every time it displays ultra-jingoistic behavior by bombing Gaza hospitals, imprisoning those who work for NGOs and bullying the US, it makes the world a much darker place for Jews.
18  General Politics / Book Reviews and Discussion / Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? on: July 20, 2014, 04:32:37 pm


19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Q2 fundraising: Draft Ben Carson PAC again out-raises Ready4Hillary on: July 18, 2014, 03:33:26 pm
Who is Ben Carson
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner (R) by 2 on: July 18, 2014, 11:32:54 am
This poll is garbage, look at the party registration figures and you'll find the explanation for Q's "movement".
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: r/civilwar on: July 17, 2014, 06:27:47 am
I love it when libertarians embrace the rhetoric of copperhead Democrats because it confirms all my suspicions about libertarians. The fact that libertarians frequently loathe Lincoln is not proof that libertarians are ignorant of history. It's proof that their ideology does not care about the reality of social institutions but about abstractions like "freedom" and the "constitution" and "free trade".
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Paul Krugman: "The Affordable Care Act is working" on: July 15, 2014, 07:48:45 pm
That Krugman is saying something is good evidence that it is not the case.

This teen boy certainly knows more about markets than a Princeton economics professor!

So do most.

I'll take you seriously for a second: what aspect of this article do you disagree with? This article cites a few studies conducted by reputable organizations, interprets the data and draws the conclusion that the ACA has most successful in states where it has been fully implemented, if success means more people having health insurance.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Ask Xahar on: July 15, 2014, 07:38:22 pm
At what age did you start following baseball? Did you ever collect baseball cards?
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Paul Krugman: "The Affordable Care Act is working" on: July 15, 2014, 07:34:47 pm
That Krugman is saying something is good evidence that it is not the case.

This teen boy certainly knows more about markets than a Princeton economics professor!
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: New Election Lab forecast suggests 86 percent chance that GOP wins Senate on: July 15, 2014, 07:30:45 pm
From the methodology section: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2014/05/05/how-election-lab-works/

Quote
The model’s factors fall into three categories:

1) The national landscape. On average, the better things are going in the country, the better the president’s party will do in an election.  We capture national conditions using two measures: presidential approval and change in gross domestic product. At the same time, the president’s party usually does worse in midterm years than presidential years even after accounting for the first two measures, so our model takes account of that, too.

2) The partisanship of the state or district. Obviously, House and Senate candidates will do better when their party dominates a district or state. We measure this with Obama’s share of the major-party vote in 2012. In Senate races, we also include the incumbent’s share of the vote from the election six years before, combined with an indicator for whether that incumbent is running or the seat is open. The incumbent’s previous election matters mainly when the incumbent is running again.

3) Key features of the race. The model currently takes account of whether the incumbent is running, which captures the well-known incumbency advantage in congressional elections. For the Senate, we also build in each candidate’s level of experience in elective office. In the Senate, we categorize experience into five levels, from someone who has never held an elective office to an incumbent senator. For states where there hasn’t yet been a Senate primary, we impute candidate experience using historical averages from similar races.  After the primaries, we will also add candidate experience to the House mode.  There, the measure will be simpler: whether the candidate has held any elective office. The difference reflects the much larger range of experience typically found in Senate races. We do not consider appointed senators, such as South Carolina’s Tim Scott and Montana’s John Walsh, to be true incumbents. Our analysis suggests that appointed senators gain much less of an advantage than elected incumbents. Finally, the model also takes into account fundraising data. For each race, we currently measure fundraising as the sum of money raised by all candidates in each party.  After the primaries, we will substitute fundraising by the actual general election candidates.  The model does not yet take into account polling data, though it ultimately will.Thus, predictions may change as fundraising or polling numbers change.

For races with little polling, the model will rely primarily on the other factors. For races with more polling, the model will gradually give more weight to the polls as the campaign goes on and the number of polls increases, since the predictive power of polls increases with sample size and proximity to Election Day.

Although Election Lab lists candidates in upcoming primary elections as well as the known general-election candidates, our model focuses only on forecasting the November general election.  In races where we do not yet know a party’s nominee and thus that person’s prior political experience, we assume that the eventual nominee’s prior experience will be similar to the historical average from similar races.

All forecasting models come with some uncertainty, since we don’t have complete information about every race or even complete certainty about how the information we do have has explained election results in the past. To address this uncertainty we conduct many simulations from our model, each time predicting the winners. Each round of simulations produces a set of outcomes for the individual races along with an overall outcome.

By analyzing these simulations, we can answer questions like, “What is the percent chance that the Democratic candidate wins in such-and-such district?” or “What is the percent chance that Republicans take the Senate?”  The goal is always to make the best statement we can about both what we know and what we don’t know.

This is a terrible model. A president's low approval rating or low levels of economic growth mean different things in different contexts and it is probably more prudent to rely on polling.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 139


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines