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October 31, 2014, 07:52:50 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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101  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 11:02:18 am
Not a bad result for a +6 Republican sample. No one should be surprised if the Dem internals end up being accurate again. Democrats just don't mess around when it comes to internals, they can't afford to.

Yeah, because internals aren't released to look favorable to the candidate to rile up their base or anything to make it look like they have a chance.

All the non-partisan Senate polls are wrong. (Except those in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire that show the Democrat ahead, right?)

Again, in 2012, the internals were better at measuring the actual turnout, because a lot of the public pollsters were assuming a bigger drop off in turnout which ended up not happening.

Fair enough. So how about you go by Udall's internal polling and YouGov and I'll go by literally everything else?

I don't really care what you go by, your opinion doesn't shape mine and I'm not obligated to agree with you.
102  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 11:00:59 am
Setting all those things aside, it should be disturbing to everyone that Ernst called a mass shooting an accident, just to defend guns. How is that a normal thing to say?
103  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 10:59:06 am
Not a bad result for a +6 Republican sample. No one should be surprised if the Dem internals end up being accurate again. Democrats just don't mess around when it comes to internals, they can't afford to.

Yeah, because internals aren't released to look favorable to the candidate to rile up their base or anything to make it look like they have a chance.

All the non-partisan Senate polls are wrong. (Except those in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire that show the Democrat ahead, right?)

Again, in 2012, the internals were better at measuring the actual turnout, because a lot of the public pollsters were assuming a bigger drop off in turnout which ended up not happening.
104  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 10:47:31 am
Not a bad result for a +6 Republican sample. No one should be surprised if the Dem internals end up being accurate again. Democrats just don't mess around when it comes to internals, they can't afford to.

5150s will be needed very soon....
105  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Scott Brown: If Romney was president, there'd be no concern about Ebola on: October 17, 2014, 10:58:50 pm
I'm not sure how Romney could have stopped Ebola, he's not a doctor.
106  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So what exactly did Udall do that made Colorado voters mad at him? on: October 17, 2014, 07:55:28 pm
Gardner faking being a big moderate is what has allowed him to lead in this race. He's running around claiming to be pro-choice and pro-life at the same time, it seems and people are buying it. With that said, Udall will still win by two to four points, because of good ground work.
107  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Kentucky Democrat can take Rand Paul's seat in 2016? on: October 17, 2014, 07:51:52 pm
Grimes could win it, depending on how well she does in this election.
108  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 06:21:19 pm

Indeed. Ernst is of the mind that the weapons were there, but Iraq moved them before the invasion.
109  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 17, 2014, 04:48:40 pm
In the 50s it was easier to move to another place, right now, not so much. Affording housing is one thing and finding it is even harder.
110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 04:36:48 pm
The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

Roll Eyes

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.

You're right, PPP is lying and faking polls for Braley. As always, you people are 100% right!



Welcome to the ignore list.



Thank you, I was sick of you replying to my posts. Don't let the door hit you.
111  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE-02: With Terry (R) down in the polls, Republicans getting desparate on: October 17, 2014, 02:53:13 pm
It must be pretty bad if Terry had to resort to a racist ad to try and save himself. In 2008, he was tying himself to Obama, so it's clear that he will say and do anything to keep his seat.
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Gov, Simon Institute: Rauner in the lead on: October 17, 2014, 02:37:07 pm
Quinn will win.
113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Magellan (R) shows Corbett gaining on: October 17, 2014, 02:06:01 pm
If that is the best Magellan can do, then Corbett really has zero chance of winning. Anyone who thinks Corbett will win delusional at this point, because the numbers just aren't there for him to pull this out.
114  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 01:24:58 pm
Ernst's position on Agenda 21 certainly qualifies as an extremist position. Not to mention, she called the shooting at UCSB as an accident, which was just plain crazy.
115  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 12:37:46 pm
The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

Roll Eyes

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.

You're right, PPP is lying and faking polls for Braley. As always, you people are 100% right!
116  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 12:33:31 pm
You ignored the fact that the DMR poll had Ernst up 6% last month, but when they polled again, she collapsed to 1%. Quinnipiac had Ernst 6% last month, but only up 2% when they polled again.

And you ignored the loras, marist, and suffolk polls that show ernst growing her lead.

The problem with your logic is that they polled the race before she had a burst of momentum that showed up 6%. Their most recent polling was at the end of the peak or after it. The trends among pollsters that polled during her peak shows a trajectory downward, not upward.

But please, keep it up, this 5150 meltdown is hilarious.
117  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 12:28:08 pm
The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

Roll Eyes

What is your point? Go sit down, please.
118  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 12:26:48 pm
The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Actually, that's directly from RCP. Try again.

You ignored the fact that the DMR poll had Ernst up 6% last month, but when they polled again, she collapsed to 1%. Quinnipiac had Ernst 6% last month, but only up 2% when they polled again.
119  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 12:18:18 pm
The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.
120  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 12:10:59 pm
Oh, Republicans here.

Poll shows Ernst up six: "We're going to net eight seats!"
Poll shows Braley up one: "Nah, this can't be tied."

It's not, and we're still gaining eight seats Smiley

The spinning here is pathetic and hilarious.

Adding this quote to my signature.

You were saying that Terri Lynn Land would win and argued with me about it, and it turns out that I was right, since that seat turned out to be a poor prospect for Republicans. Add that to your signature.
121  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 12:05:31 pm
The spinning here is pathetic and hilarious.
122  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Coakley trails Baker on: October 17, 2014, 12:04:02 pm
Rasmussen is not credible. After they pulled that Kansas poll, that was pretty much proof they can't be taken seriously. Coakley will win.
123  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 11:59:16 am
Quasi-internal as it was done for lcv. To the trash!

The last one had Ernst up two. Time to be realistic.
124  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 11:57:47 am
Take a bow, Joni.

From one poll. One ing poll. You gotta be ing kidding me.

Other polls have shown Braley closing hard. Once again, my prediction is turning out to be correct.

Calmly take your head away from your own inksit

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 11:52:25 am
Take a bow, Joni.

From one poll. One ing poll. You gotta be ing kidding me.

Other polls have shown Braley closing hard. Once again, my prediction is turning out to be correct.
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