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101  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 10: AR, ME, NV, ND, SC, VA) on: June 10, 2014, 08:15:54 pm
Am I the only Democrat who's not happy about this? Reason and moderation lost, the Tea Party is back. Ugh.

You are the only one. And on what planet is Cantor moderate? lol.
102  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Michelle Nunn, Jack Kingston, and the city of Savannah on: June 10, 2014, 08:14:30 pm
Kingston only won by 5% Chatham in his last house race and I would imagine most Democrats skipped over that race, since the district is not competitive. Much of the reason Chatham is so Democratic is because it's 41% Black and there is zero evidence to support any notion (and it will be made) that Kingston is overwhelmingly popular with black voters. In order to win it, he'd need low turnout, because crossover support is limited.

So his last House race was in 2012, when Obama was winning Chatham County by twelve points, yet Kingston still won by five. That means he was running ahead of Romney by double-digits. If he can win by five points in Chatham with a presidential electorate, he should do better than that against Nunn this year if he ends up as the nominee. It seems quixotic to say that Kingston will lose a county in 2014 that he won in 2012.
 
Don't we generally expect low turnout in midterm elections?

Statewide and against a well funded, serious opponent, there's no reason to think Kingston would carry it. A 5% win against a non-serious opponent doesn't suggest that he has any unusual sway over voters, in fact, many Democrats probably skipped over the race. Seeing as Isakson only carried it by 3% while winning by 20% statewide, I'd say that Chatham doesn't vote for Kingston, barring a wave.
103  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 10: AR, ME, NV, ND, SC, VA) on: June 10, 2014, 07:19:11 pm
Politico calls it for Brat in an upset.

And Cantor's district is R+10, so you can forget about any sort of Democratic pick-up.

No one said there was a possibility. Your majority leader lost, that is the story.
104  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 10: AR, ME, NV, ND, SC, VA) on: June 10, 2014, 06:57:19 pm
Reports of the Tea Party's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
105  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 10: AR, ME, NV, ND, SC, VA) on: June 10, 2014, 06:46:51 pm
This is just too good, such great entertainment.
106  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Michelle Nunn, Jack Kingston, and the city of Savannah on: June 10, 2014, 03:01:22 pm
Kingston only won by 5% Chatham in his last house race and I would imagine most Democrats skipped over that race, since the district is not competitive. Much of the reason Chatham is so Democratic is because it's 41% Black and there is zero evidence to support any notion (and it will be made) that Kingston is overwhelmingly popular with black voters. In order to win it, he'd need low turnout, because crossover support is limited.
107  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MS Runoff - McDaniel up by 3, within MOE on: June 10, 2014, 12:16:27 am
The thing is, Democrats don't turnout in non-presidential elections even in D vs R match ups, so why would they be motivated to turnout for the Cochran? Most of the Democratic electorate probably isn't even paying attention to the race.
108  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA republicans will retake control of the VA senate on: June 09, 2014, 10:15:00 pm
If this situation happened in reverse, it would no doubt be called bribery by Republicans. There are ways of doing dishonest things without breaking the law. An executive order in comparison to this is nothing and at least it would make the whole bribery scheme for naught.
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Vox Populi (R): Ernst leading by 5 on: June 09, 2014, 08:45:22 am
Garbage from Dick Cheney.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: CA-Sen (2012): Pelosi vs. Fiorina on: June 09, 2014, 01:05:54 am
Fiorina (R)-55%
Pelosi (D)-40%

That would embarrass National Democrats, and possibly giving Republicans a shot of retaking the Senate that year.


That doesn't even make sense, why would Fiorina win after losing in a more favorable environment? I think you are confused.
111  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA republicans will retake control of the VA senate on: June 08, 2014, 09:49:21 pm
Republicans should never complain about how corrupt Democrats in Chicago or Detroit are.
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Sen, Loras College: Ernst in "Great news!" territory on: June 08, 2014, 08:41:14 am
Considering that she believes that mass murder is an accident and that there were WMDs in Iraq, I find this very hard to believe.

The average Iowa voter does not gaffe-track, especially those that are not big deals (like Akins and Mourdocks).  This is about on line with a Bill Cassidy or David Perdue-sized gaffe, meaning not that consequential.

There is no way that soundbite won't end up in an ad and an ad like that is very effective. I recall some saying that Akin and Mourdock would be fine because their comments weren't that big of a deal, but.....
113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight Analysis: Don't Assume McDaniel Will Be Nominee on: June 08, 2014, 12:22:54 am
Democrats don't show up in non-presidential elections for their own candidates in D vs R match-ups, so they certainly aren't going to show up for Cochran.
114  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Sen, Loras College: Ernst in "Great news!" territory on: June 06, 2014, 04:25:22 pm
Considering that she believes that mass murder is an accident and that there were WMDs in Iraq, I find this very hard to believe.
115  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gov, SUSA: Great Scott in the lead on: June 01, 2014, 05:09:41 pm
I think Crist will win, but short of bribing voters or stuffing ballot boxes, there is no way Democrats can guarantee a win.
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul wins Michigan? on: June 01, 2014, 01:44:19 pm
That would be one of his worst states, he's a terrible fit for Michigan. No one who thinks the Civil Rights Act is a bad thing would get 40% in Detroit, even a moderate Republican would get 40% in Detroit.
117  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead on: May 29, 2014, 10:28:04 am
Lean R
118  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: IL-12, Tarrance Group: Bost in the lead on: May 28, 2014, 09:45:01 pm
I know that's a lie. He's got no money and he's a raging nutcase that goes off on violent rants on the state house floor.

He raised more than Enyart in the 1st quarter and you are overplaying the effect of a single viral video. The district (and state) has a very different view of the candidates than the country. Check with his Dem colleagues in the IL House (especially those in So. IL) if you doubt it.
COH counts for something and Enyart has a lot more than Bost. IL-12 is a seat that Obama won and a video like that doesn't help a Republican candidate in a seat like this. Downballot, it's even more Democratic.

If anything, wouldn't the video help him?  People in downstate IL don't like Chicago politics or Mike Madigan.

If he was in IL-18, it would help him, but in swing district, violent rants caught on video are rarely helpful.
119  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY-Wenzel Strategies (R): McConnell (R) up 3 on: May 28, 2014, 12:49:54 pm
This same pollster had Akin in the lead just weeks for the election in 2012.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Design the Republican candidate who would be Hillary's worst nightmare on: May 27, 2014, 06:50:14 pm
Unfortunately for the GOP, they can't run a made up, fictional character, because this is real life.
121  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gov, SUSA: Great Scott in the lead on: May 27, 2014, 04:36:48 pm
Cut the trolling, krazey.....
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which 2016ers have smoked marijuana / used other illegal drugs? on: May 22, 2014, 08:56:42 pm
Rand Paul of course. The better question is, who still does drugs now? And I'm not wondering about pot, I'm wondering about stronger drugs.
123  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: IL-12, Tarrance Group: Bost in the lead on: May 22, 2014, 08:10:27 am
I know that's a lie. He's got no money and he's a raging nutcase that goes off on violent rants on the state house floor.
124  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn (NYT): Nunn's path very narrow; must perform as well as strong incumbent on: May 21, 2014, 11:28:58 pm
Kingston is dumb and Perdue has a negative view of people without college degrees. Nunn has a good chance.
Kingston isn't what I consider dumb, and Perdue's gaffe isn't that serious when you look at the bigger picture.

Nunn can't even define her position on ObamaCare. In a genuine swing state, that might not wreck her, but in Republican Georgia, that will sink her.

Kingston thinks repetitive motion injuries at work are the same thing to lifting turkeys while grocery shopping, so he's not very bright.  Lots of voters in Georgia do not have college degrees, particularly in rural areas that even Roy Barnes managed to over perform in during the 2010 election.
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn (NYT): Nunn's path very narrow; must perform as well as strong incumbent on: May 21, 2014, 09:23:36 pm
Kingston is dumb and Perdue has a negative view of people without college degrees. Nunn has a good chance.
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