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October 22, 2014, 05:24:10 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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101  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: Rasmussen: LePage +1 on: October 11, 2014, 10:21:10 am
A 1% lead is barely surviving, so coattails are out of the question. LePage isn't even secure, 1% is hardly a secure lead.
102  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: Rasmussen: LePage +1 on: October 11, 2014, 12:03:36 am
LePage has stans and I cannot figure out why.
103  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA-Sen; Michelle Obama campaigning for Braley, can't pronounce his name on: October 10, 2014, 09:13:03 pm
It's more disturbing that Ernst was stealing from a county to give her father money. Who does that? Oops, a Republican, that's who.
104  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark: Tied race on: October 10, 2014, 07:19:19 pm
Uhm, Landmark has some of the most accurate polls in Georgia, so this is not good news for Perdue. She's closing fast and that's a very good sign.

...Nunn has led in literally all of their polls. She's going backwards in this. Thanks for calling in.

After the primary runoff, Perdue surged, but Nunn has steadily reclaimed the lead. At this stage, she can continue to move upward.

compare apples to apples. Landmark has shown the Nunn lead decreasing from 7 to 3 to now 0. Clearly the race is moving toward perdue.

Other polling has shown Perdue's lead down, though, so the race has shifted away from him some.
Uhm, Landmark has some of the most accurate polls in Georgia, so this is not good news for Perdue. She's closing fast and that's a very good sign.

...Nunn has led in literally all of their polls. She's going backwards in this. Thanks for calling in.

After the primary runoff, Perdue surged, but Nunn has steadily reclaimed the lead. At this stage, she can continue to move upward.


That post makes zero sense compared to the polls we are talking about here.

Perdue called Nunn a terrorist supporter and polls taken since that ad ran have shown the race shifting away from Perdue.
105  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark: Tied race on: October 10, 2014, 06:54:50 pm
Uhm, Landmark has some of the most accurate polls in Georgia, so this is not good news for Perdue. She's closing fast and that's a very good sign.

...Nunn has led in literally all of their polls. She's going backwards in this. Thanks for calling in.

After the primary runoff, Perdue surged, but Nunn has steadily reclaimed the lead. At this stage, she can continue to move upward.
106  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark: Tied race on: October 10, 2014, 06:50:24 pm
Uhm, Landmark has some of the most accurate polls in Georgia, so this is not good news for Perdue. She's closing fast and that's a very good sign.
107  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL Gov- Is Rauner completely cooked, or is there any hope? on: October 10, 2014, 11:57:20 am
This ad won't help much https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT4lbu2VMaY
108  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-52: DeMaio accused of sexual harassment on: October 10, 2014, 10:47:37 am
He was not in good shape before this, since the Chamber of Commerce opted to endorse Peters over him and his campaign responded by criticizing the Chamber. But, that doesn't even make the fuss charts compared to sexual harassment.
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: Pan Atlantic SMS Group: Cutler surging? on: October 09, 2014, 10:39:26 pm
LePage is a racist extremist, so what is so great about him being in the lead?

The fact that he is not Michaud

Michaud is a mainstream Democrat, so it's not like LePage is a balanced alternative or anything. Apparently, Republicans will support anyone, regardless of how extreme they are.

Just curious, whom would you consider an "extreme" Democrat?  Do they even exist, or extremism only reserved for Republicans?.

Republicans are the only ones who put up extremist candidates for office consistently, you don't see Democrats nominating people like Cynthia McKinney (who isn't a Democrat anymore) for anything. It's not hard to see the difference.
110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Susan B. Anthony List/The Lukens Company: Braley+1 in IA, Hagan+2 in NC on: October 09, 2014, 10:32:39 pm
If they have Braley up, then I'm inclined to believe he's easing back into the driver's seat. This is a conservative organization.

Whatever happened to your mantra that right-wing organizations don't poll well?

As for the poll, throw it in the average and keep Iowa at Leans R.

Right-wing organizations don't tend to release favorable polling to Democrats, which is why Romney ended up be shell shocked at his loss. If this is the best a right-wing organization can show in these races, then I don't see that as a big plus for either of these Republican candidates.
111  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: MA-09: Emerson/WGBH: Rep. Bill Keating (D) trails by 5 on: October 09, 2014, 06:07:20 pm
Love being black has nothing to do with her under performance, her problem came from the fact that she bought into hype and ran as a celebrity candidate. If you go back to 2012, she was over matched by Matheson when they had a debate. Her goal is more about making history and gaining recognition, not actually going to the House to be a productive member.
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: Pan Atlantic SMS Group: Cutler surging? on: October 09, 2014, 11:22:35 am
LePage is a racist extremist, so what is so great about him being in the lead?

The fact that he is not Michaud

Michaud is a mainstream Democrat, so it's not like LePage is a balanced alternative or anything. Apparently, Republicans will support anyone, regardless of how extreme they are.
113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: ME: Pan Atlantic SMS Group: Cutler surging? on: October 09, 2014, 10:44:38 am
LePage is a racist extremist, so what is so great about him being in the lead?
114  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / CA-52: DeMaio accused of sexual harassment on: October 09, 2014, 10:08:27 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/carl-demaio-sexual-harassment-bribery-claims-111720.html

Quote
A high-profile Southern California congressional race descended into chaos on Wednesday when Republican Carl DeMaio was peppered with questions from reporters about whether he had sexually harassed and then intimidated and attempted to bribe a former campaign staffer.

At a news conference at his campaign headquarters, DeMaio called the allegations “absolutely untrue” and a “complete lie.” He added that authorities had questioned him and his campaign staff about the harassment claims, concluded they were unfounded and closed the case. DeMaio, 40, said the accuser concocted the story after he was identified as a “prime suspect” in a break-in at DeMaio’s campaign office last spring.

Not the sort of story a candidate wants out in the final stretch.


115  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Susan B. Anthony List/The Lukens Company: Braley+1 in IA, Hagan+2 in NC on: October 09, 2014, 10:01:20 am
If they have Braley up, then I'm inclined to believe he's easing back into the driver's seat. This is a conservative organization.
116  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO on: October 08, 2014, 07:10:04 pm
Take many seats, please. It's the huge number of undecideds that make these polls suspect, seeing as no one else is showing such high undecideds anymore. Even if there is a Democratic pollster on staff, pollsters are still paid to do a job and pushing leaners was not part of the job.

So I guess the recent Survey USA (11%), Marist (15%) and Suffolk (13%) Kansas polls, which showed HIGHER undecideds than this Fox News Poll (10%) are even more suspect than the Fox News poll?  Or are those polls okay because they show the candidate you want in the lead and this one doesn't?

Plenty of pollsters are showing undecideds in the 7-13% range right now, like these Fox News polls, especially in Kansas.  Look it up in the database if you don't believe me.  Or just find another thing "wrong" about the poll to discredit it because you don't like the result, like you always do.

Once again, I have to tell you to calm down, because you just go into some angry mode. At this stage, I find it hard to believe any of the candidates is actually in the 30s at this point. I'm not discrediting the polls because I don't like the result.
117  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-CNN/ORC: Roberts +1% on: October 08, 2014, 06:31:48 pm
Self-parody is not amusing.

Agreed. So stop posting.

I think it is you that should stop posting. You are totally annoying and no one likes you, so move on.

I know times are tough in the Orman Orbit but don't get desperate, Dr.

I'm not worried about Orman winning, I think he will. I'm just calling out your foolishness. Unlike some, I won't have a breakdown over losing an election, it's not that serious to me....

I'm so glad "Nobody likes you" is your go to like when you aren't taking things too seriously.

That was merely for entertainment, nothing more.
118  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO on: October 08, 2014, 06:31:15 pm
Quinnipiac's poll was wildly inflated, and it's pretty old by now. I think Fox News is playing games here, as most other pollster are not showing this many undecideds. They pulled a stunt with the LA-Sen poll.

Yeah, I'm sure the Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research who is part of the bipartisan duo that polls for Fox News is allowing Fox News to play games with polls by not reporting undecideds.  After all, they have no incentive to show the Democratic candidates up.

You just can't take polls that show your candidates down at face value, can you?

Take many seats, please. It's the huge number of undecideds that make these polls suspect, seeing as no one else is showing such high undecideds anymore. Even if there is a Democratic pollster on staff, pollsters are still paid to do a job and pushing leaners was not part of the job.
119  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-CNN/ORC: Exact Tie on: October 08, 2014, 05:56:34 pm
CNN also said NH-Sen was a tie. Outlier.

LOL OMG AND DIDNT THEY SAY SARKOZY WOULD BE RE-ELECTED AND THAT COLOMBIA WOULD WIN THE WORLD CUP THIS YEAR? HA HA

While you are hardly unique in this regard, most people would probably have more respect for someone who, with a history of making predictions defying conventional wisdom that did not pan out, expressed greater epistemic uncertainty when making a similar prediction in the present, and did not make ad hominem attacks against those who subscribed to conventional wisdom. True, you too have been victim of ad hominem attacks, but those are in large part a (desired?) consequence of your conduct agitating for a dispute.

Yes, read him.
120  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO on: October 08, 2014, 05:17:03 pm
Quinnipiac's poll was wildly inflated, and it's pretty old by now. I think Fox News is playing games here, as most other pollster are not showing this many undecideds. They pulled a stunt with the LA-Sen poll.
121  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO on: October 08, 2014, 05:03:09 pm
Did they not push leaners? That seems to be too many undecideds at this stage.
122  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-CNN/ORC: Roberts +1% on: October 08, 2014, 04:33:52 pm
Self-parody is not amusing.

Agreed. So stop posting.

I think it is you that should stop posting. You are totally annoying and no one likes you, so move on.

I know times are tough in the Orman Orbit but don't get desperate, Dr.

I'm not worried about Orman winning, I think he will. I'm just calling out your foolishness. Unlike some, I won't have a breakdown over losing an election, it's not that serious to me....
123  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-CNN/ORC: Roberts +1% on: October 08, 2014, 04:30:51 pm
Self-parody is not amusing.

Agreed. So stop posting.

I think it is you that should stop posting. You are totally annoying and no one likes you, so move on.
I like Phil.

Hopeful that these results are accurate!

I suppose somebody has to.
124  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-CNN/ORC: Roberts +1% on: October 08, 2014, 04:28:53 pm
Self-parody is not amusing.

Agreed. So stop posting.

I think it is you that should stop posting. You are totally annoying and no one likes you, so move on.
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-CNN/ORC: Roberts +1% on: October 08, 2014, 04:25:26 pm
Self-parody is not amusing.
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