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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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101  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:38:16 pm
I mean, who doesn't love to blame gerrymandering? But it's a pretty weak excuse when your candidates start with 20 POINT LEADS.

I really thought Jolly winning would be an upset. F#ck me sideways.

That 20% lead always seemed inflated, Sink was never going to win by that much, let alone at all.
102  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:37:19 pm
You can't blame Sink, this district is a rigged gerrymander, blame the Republican legislature for breaking the rules of the redistricting amendment.

Please, lets stop with the excuses.

It's the truth, the district is gerrymandered. It's not really a big shock or conquest that a Republican won in this district.
103  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:36:15 pm
You can't blame Sink, this district is a rigged gerrymander, blame the Republican legislature for breaking the rules of the redistricting amendment.

Didn't Obama win this district?

Narrowly, but down ballot, it's not more Republican.
104  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:35:28 pm
Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.
Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

Nope, gerrymandering one the seat for Republicans. There is no way any Democrat was going to win this seat in a special elections. Republicans knew what they were doing when they drew this district.
No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?
I know it was a factor, but not the main one.  You still, even with the gerrymander should have won the seat.  Jolly is a bad candidate, but Sink is worse.
105  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:31:56 pm
You can't blame Sink, this district is a rigged gerrymander, blame the Republican legislature for breaking the rules of the redistricting amendment.
106  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:29:32 pm
Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.
Yes, it may have been a small factor, but you lost because you nominated a horrible nominee.  You threw one away.  Should have had Rick Kriseman run instead of mayor.  You would have a house seat then.

No, you won because the legislature cut out black voters and used water continuity to pack them. You really think Jolly would have won if the whole of St. Pete was in the district?
107  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:28:13 pm
Florida really will elect some bad candidates, I mean, seriously http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-killed-a-man/2167218
108  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: March 11, 2014, 06:24:32 pm
Gerrymandering works, what a freaking surprise.
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Sen: Udall (D) 42%, Gardner (R) 41% on: March 11, 2014, 05:54:21 pm
Why are all you lefties denying this? You actually think Udall has nothing to fight? Seriously??

1. It's Rasmussen.
2. Gardener is from the most Republican district in the state, which is points more Republican than the state as a whole.
3. It's Rasmussen.


Rasmussen has been mostly accurate since the one guy left the company. You guys have never bashed rasmussen until now. We'll see about another poll, but immediately dismissing a poll because its not PPP is hackish.

Why does #2 even matter? With that logic you're telling me that Tammy Baldwin was at a disadvantage in 2012 because she was from the most far left district in the state.

Why are all you lefties denying this? You actually think Udall has nothing to fight? Seriously??

Because Udall is safe? Nothing about this race has changed...Garder at the Republican floor as per usual.

Yeah, he's so safe he's leading by a whole point? If Rubio was leading by a point you would all be calling it a toss-up, guaranteed. (Not speaking directly to anybody here) Some of you guys just block what you don't want to hear and make up alternate realities.

Except Colorado polling is always unfavorable for the Dems so Udall is doing much better than this poll would suggest. Also, how is Cory Gardner a better get than Ken Buck?

Cory Gardner is much better than Ken Buck, how can you not realize this? He's not insane and not attracted to gaffes unlike Buck.

Rasmussen has yet to be proven accurate, 2012 had plenty of inaccuracies.

It matters because Gardener has no connection to any swing voters in the state, his district is far removed from where the votes critical to a win are and he's not a moderate. He isn't Ken Buck, but he's still very conservative. In Baldwin's case, Wisconsin leans more Democratic than Colorado leans Republican, so it was less of an issue for her.
110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Sen: Udall (D) 42%, Gardner (R) 41% on: March 11, 2014, 05:18:15 pm
Why are all you lefties denying this? You actually think Udall has nothing to fight? Seriously??

1. It's Rasmussen.
2. Gardener is from the most Republican district in the state, which is points more Republican than the state as a whole.
3. It's Rasmussen.
111  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Minnesota Legislator Pat Garofalo under fire for "racist" NBA tweet on: March 10, 2014, 12:48:30 pm
He's from a 55% Romney district, enough said.
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Sen: Udall (D) 42%, Gardner (R) 41% on: March 10, 2014, 12:35:26 pm
If that's the best Rasmussen can do, then Udall has nothing to be concerned about.
113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Would Carly Fiorina (R-California) win a rematch in 2016 against Barbara Boxer? on: March 08, 2014, 10:34:53 pm
10% was wide for a midterm, so a Presidential election year would probably be almost double that.
114  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Sen: Roanoke College (Warner +27 - A big WARNing to Gillespie) on: March 08, 2014, 06:57:20 pm
I think Warner probably wins 56-44.
115  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MI-Sen: Whiskey & Sleigh Rides on: March 06, 2014, 08:12:56 pm
It's a Lean Democratic race, Michigan is just too blue for it to be anything else.
116  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MI-Sen: Whiskey & Sleigh Rides on: March 06, 2014, 07:59:00 pm
Land has refused to take a stance on rape insurance and has given multiple, waffling answers on Obamacare and medicaid expansion. She's trying to stealth her way through the race as a non-partisan, but that isn't going to work, because once the ads starts, the Republicans will to cross this seat off their list.
117  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Darrell Issa 2014 on: March 05, 2014, 07:55:30 pm
At the end of the decade, he'll lose, mark my words. His district is one that is getting close to being on borrowed time for Republicans.
118  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alan Grayson may have pushed his wife on: March 05, 2014, 07:50:42 am
And the GOP still won't win the seat, which says a whole lot about the state of that party's crossover appeal. They'd have to redraw the map and draw the seat into some rural areas far off in the distance, but obviously a redraw isn't possible, so they are pretty much sunk.
119  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why is no NJ GOP official running against Cory Booker in 2014? on: March 04, 2014, 11:46:34 pm
A centrist Democrat in a blue state is fairly unbeatable.
120  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ed Pastor (AZ-07) To Retire on: February 28, 2014, 05:43:09 pm
Not sure an ex-Nader spokeswoman can win here yet. J-Nap seems done with politics too. I'm honestly more keen on running Kirkpatrick.
Kirkpatrick? She has no charism.
And your ex-Nader spokeswoman is now a member of the Blue Dog Coalition. :p

Kirkpatrick is a strong in ancestrally Democratic areas and is a good campaigner. AZ-1 is pretty much the best staging point for a Democrat running statewide.
121  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-21: Owens retiring on: February 27, 2014, 12:22:19 am
I'm not sure it's accurate to call any Obama seat that isn't already held by a Republican anything less than toss-up, at least this early. The only Obama seats Republicans won in 2012 were ones they already held. Even the very narrow districts are polarized now.
122  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: PA-Quinnipiac: Wolf eats Gov. Corbett alive on: February 26, 2014, 10:32:05 pm
Corbett facing a primary would be just like Blanche Lincoln facing a primary, he'd win it and still go on to lose. Polling has shown that he'd prevail against a primary challenge.
123  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CO-SEN: Gardner entering Senate race on: February 26, 2014, 09:57:13 pm
He gave a flimsy answer about secession, saying that it was state matter. That could be translated as supporting it. Running from a staging point of a 59% Romney district is not a good statewide profile, he represents an electorate that is points more Republican and conservative as the state as a whole.
124  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Clarity Peters up on: February 26, 2014, 07:17:11 pm
Looks more accurate than some other polling that has come out.
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CO-SEN: Gardner entering Senate race on: February 26, 2014, 06:38:14 pm
I don't see Republicans gaining any seats in Obama states, regardless of who they put up.
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