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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Racism Powered Republican Triumph on: November 22, 2014, 08:24:52 pm
Politicians are fairly anonymous everywhere, so I would wager that a lot voters did not even know that Scott is black. His anonymity is one reason why he over performed Haley and Graham (they also have more detractors).
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Hillary play in MI? on: November 22, 2014, 02:24:53 pm
Scott Walker would lose badly, because he's anti-union and caused all that trouble in Wisconsin. Regardless of the nominee, Hillary will win Michigan without much trouble.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Vermont go Republican in 2016? on: November 22, 2014, 02:23:58 pm
Just because Vermont is mostly white doesn't mean it will go Republican.
104  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Racism Powered Republican Triumph on: November 22, 2014, 10:21:39 am
You can't have your cake and eat it too, Republicans won, but a lot of those wins were racially polarized. In the south, Republican equals white and Democratic equals black, that is just how it is.
105  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is "the American people" a dog whistle term to refer to white conservatives? on: November 21, 2014, 10:55:34 pm
It depends on who it comes from and there are certain people who choose to use it in that way.
106  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Kirk warns Duckworth to not run against him in 2016 on: November 21, 2014, 05:41:24 pm
He buys his own hype more than Scott Brown. Next thing he'll say is that Democrats should let him run unopposed, since he's so formidable. What an arrogant jerk.
107  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who are the five worst Governors in America? on: November 21, 2014, 12:01:24 am
Scott Walker
Rick Snyder
Chris Christie
Paul LePage
Sam Brownback
108  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to announce executive order on immigration on: November 21, 2014, 12:00:02 am
When the Congress is not willing to work to pass needed fixes and is set on creating gridlock, executive orders are the answer.
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What do the Dems have up their sleeve next for Mary? on: November 20, 2014, 11:22:59 pm
I'm more interested in what plans Republicans have now that they are in control of Congress. I have not heard one idea for helping create jobs.
110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HYPO: Snowe wants back in on: November 20, 2014, 11:20:04 pm
Collins would have won. Considering that there is some animosity there, that would have been an ugly race.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich attacks Walker for ignoring facts and being too partisan on: November 20, 2014, 08:39:39 pm
Kasich was headed down the same road as Walker and would have continued to do so if voters had not rejected his anti-union bill.
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IA-01: Rod Blum Appears to be a Loan Shark on: November 20, 2014, 07:05:35 pm
I'm going to take a wild guess that he will not have the decency to decline to take office in light of this damaging information.
113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Progressives Have a Solution for the Mid-Term Disaster on: November 18, 2014, 11:04:35 am
Supporting the minimum wage doesn't make you a progressive. Rick Santorum supports a minimum wage increase.

Rick Santorum also supports unions. He's from a part of western Pennsylvania where Republicans have some economic positions that aren't exactly ones that most conservatives usually have.
114  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Democrat should run against Ron Johnson? on: November 18, 2014, 01:53:35 am
I think someone who can run a better campaign than Feingold should run. Ron Kind would be able to run up score in his district, which is an area that Democrats need in order to win statewide.
115  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NRCC, American Crossroads & AAN caught coordinating via tweets on: November 17, 2014, 09:50:04 pm
Those groups coordinate all the time, even though it isn't legal, they find ways to get around the rules. Although, it is sloppy to coordinate on Twitter where everyone can see.
116  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Landrieu done for? DSCC cancels many of their ad buys in LA markets. on: November 16, 2014, 10:54:30 pm
This is old news, we already knew this.
117  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Progressives Have a Solution for the Mid-Term Disaster on: November 16, 2014, 10:46:31 pm
Progs need to drop this whole "war on women" BS because that obviously hasn't worked.

It works, which is why some Republicans, like Jeff Gorell, have lied about being pro-choice.
118  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Progressives Have a Solution for the Mid-Term Disaster on: November 16, 2014, 10:00:24 pm
All the money and resources should have been directed toward Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska, states where the margins ended up being the narrowest. That's where the mistake was made, because if those states had been the main focus, we would have maintained them. Lots of resources were put into Arkansas, Louisiana and Kentucky, when it would have been better to spend that money elsewhere.

The map to a majority isn't in red states, it's in purple to blue states. Democrats did not go nuclear on people like Gardner and Ernst early enough, they need to totally tank their favorables early on, but they failed to do so.

Progressives spent over somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million+ against Thom Tillis and attacked him hard early but it still wasn't enough.

What makes you think it would have been any different if the Dems had just concentrated on the states you mentioned? Esp. without hindsight AR, KY, and LA looked holdable.
 

Kentucky wasn't holdable, because we didn't hold it in the first place, Grimes was not an incumbent that McConnell defeated.

Considering the margins, specifically in Colorado, I can't help but think a more aggressive campaign early on would have made the difference. Getting the favorables down early in the key, and that is what Democrats failed to do.
119  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Progressives Have a Solution for the Mid-Term Disaster on: November 16, 2014, 09:43:42 pm
All the money and resources should have been directed toward Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska, states where the margins ended up being the narrowest. That's where the mistake was made, because if those states had been the main focus, we would have maintained them. Lots of resources were put into Arkansas, Louisiana and Kentucky, when it would have been better to spend that money elsewhere.

The map to a majority isn't in red states, it's in purple to blue states. Democrats did not go nuclear on people like Gardner and Ernst early enough, they need to totally tank their favorables early on, but they failed to do so.
120  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Martha Coakley and Scott Brown on: November 16, 2014, 08:36:00 pm
At least Martha Coakley didn't move to another state and run after losing.
121  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-Sen: Ralston rates Reid foes on: November 16, 2014, 05:23:53 pm
I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota Roll Eyes

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.
You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

I think Republicans need Sandoval to beat Reid in a presidential year.  As seen in Kentucky, voters don't split tickets like they used to.

Nevada is more elastic than Kentucky, so there will be more crossover voters, but Reid will still benefit from increased polarization among Democratic voters, on top of his incumbency.
122  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-Sen: Ralston rates Reid foes on: November 16, 2014, 04:58:44 pm
I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota Roll Eyes

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.
You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.
123  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-Sen: Ralston rates Reid foes on: November 16, 2014, 03:20:16 pm
I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota Roll Eyes

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.
You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.
124  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-Sen: Ralston rates Reid foes on: November 16, 2014, 01:54:27 pm
I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota Roll Eyes

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Duckworth husband registers DuckworthforSenate.com on: November 15, 2014, 03:56:31 pm
Joe Walsh is hinting at a primary run, so Kirk might not even be the nominee.

He wouldn't win.

He has a good chance, he'd galvanize conservatives downstate.
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