With presidential turnout, Democrats will win this office.
There are some very capable candidates for SoS that Martinez can appoint, and Democrats in New Mexico are utterly inept and terrible. I wouldn't trust any vague platitude like "With presidential turnout..." as an assurance that this office could be gained for Democrats.
Duran only won very narrowly in 2014, which was a Republican year, so do the math. In a blue state with presidential turnout Democrats usually win. It isn't "a vague platitude" (whatever that is).
Independents are not a monolithic voting bloc that equals moderate and I do not know when people will realize that. You have left-leaning independents and right-leaning independents who vote exclusively for one party or the other. Independent and moderate are not synonymous.
Hillary is an extremely polarizing candidate with no crossover appeal and Indies hate her, Biden's unity message could pay dividends in the GE.
Obama lost independents. He won two elections with over 50%.
Exactly. The Democrats will win by mobilizing their base, not by going after that elusive moderate/centrist/persuadable voter.
What is overlooked a lot of times is that much of the Democratic voting base is registered as independent. There are plenty of left-leaning voters who vote mostly Democratic, but do not register with a party.
What people fail to understand is that he won't be so formidable in the polls if he actually gets in. People love hypothetical candidates, but once said hypothetical candidate runs, they hate them. It's the nature of the electorate.
The problem with this friends notion is that Republicans are not going to support a Democrat just because he considers them friends, it just doesn't work like that. The GOP in Congress has threatened to shut down the government and admitted to misusing authority for political reason, neither of which sounds like friendship. It doesn't matter who Democrats nominate, the Republican Party will come at them with both barrels and that is what makes more centrist voters dislike the GOP.