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July 30, 2014, 04:11:22 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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101  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NBC-Marist: Pryor up 11, KY tied, Perdue leads Nunn by 4 in GA on: May 12, 2014, 09:15:56 am
This is at least the third poll to show Pryor up big, so it's hard to justify not calling this race Lean Democratic for right now. I do not think Pryor loses without a dramatic shift in climate. Honestly, Pryor is the far better candidate, the only thing making race competitive is partisanship.
102  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll: Nunn leads all Republicans on: May 10, 2014, 12:23:18 pm

Considering Perdue is the likely GOP nominee, a 1 point lead is not "dominating".

Dominating is the running sarcasm on the forum, courtesy of krazen.
103  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll: Nunn leads all Republicans on: May 10, 2014, 11:51:37 am
Nunn 46 Perdue 45

Nunn 49 Handel 41

Nunn 50 Kingston 40

Nunn 51 Broun 38

Nunn 52 Gingrey 37

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/ajc-poll-finds-tight-races-for-governor-senate/nfsXR/?icmp=ajc_internallink_invitationbox_apr2013_ajcstub1#1db5ce5b.3564794.735363

Dominating
104  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Reid compares Senate Republicans to greased pigs on: May 07, 2014, 07:38:02 pm
I think Harry Reid says these things to deliberately antagonize Republicans.
105  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mayor: People are Homeless 'By Choice' on: May 06, 2014, 12:16:21 am
It's isn't entirely untrue that some are homeless by choice, and there are some that panhandle, but aren't homeless at all.
106  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gov. Quinn(D-IL) Target of Criminal Probe on: May 04, 2014, 10:32:44 pm
And he'll still win because Cook County is a powerhouse. NEXT.

Exactly, which is why Mark Kirk lost Alexi Giannoulias in 2010, right?


Quinn survived in 2010 by 30,000 votes. In the collar counties he won low-mid 50% ranges, primarily on his promise not to raise taxes, and his "reformer" image. There was still a "Let's give this guy a chance" feeling in Illinois, and Brady was big on social conservativism in a socially moderate state.

Mark Kirk won in the same election by 60,000 votes, blowing Giannoulias out of the collar counties (mid-high 50%) and wiping the floor with him downstate.

Quinn's goodwill is completely gone. Quinn is actually campaigning on making the tax increase he lied about permanent. Rauner is more like Kirk, being socially moderate and focusing mostly on the economy and budget problems. He picked a good running mate, and his campaign looks to do serious damage to Quinn.

I legitimately, sincerely believe Rauner could nartowly win this thing if he plays his cards right.

And even in 2010, the "moderate" Kirk only narrowly won. 2014 isn't going to be nearly as favorable to Republican as 2010. It's very unlikely an anti-minimum wage candidate in a heavily Democratic state will wi.
Kirk has the incumbency advantage now.

Doesn't matter, in a presidential year, Kirk is at a serious disadvantage, incumbent or not.
It does matter because you're posing false equivalencies.

You're saying that Kirk won't have trouble in a presidential year? He barely won in a Republican year against an opponent with ethics issues, so what makes you think he won't have big problems in a presidential year?

Because that's over-simplifying how elections work? There are more variables than "Presidential election year = Democrats sweep the map". What if 2016 is a Republican year? What will happen when Obama is no longer on the ballot? Who will be his challenger, and will they have flaws? Don't be so confident with 2.5 years to go.

2010 was a close win for an open seat, in a blue state. It's not like Illinois has never elected a Republican before. He's a pragmatic Republican who did well enough in the collar counties + a good showing in Cook to win initially, and can improve his performance if he remains popular.   

Illinois' PVI didn't change much from 2004, it was D+7 then, so Obama's home state effect didn't mess with the PVI that much. People were claiming that Scott Brown would crush Elizabeth Warren, because he was pragmatic and could do well with Democrats, and look what happened. Unless 2016 is a massive Republican wave, Kirk is the most endangered Republican Senator and the most likely to lose.
107  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Wisconsin Dem to Hand out KKK Hoods at GOP Convention on: May 04, 2014, 09:32:58 pm
As early as 1900, the Southern state GOP parties went whites only once the 1890's constitutions had deprived most all blacks of the right to vote. By the 1920's, this approach had crept up to the national party, and was a component of the 1928 campaign to compensate for lost ethnics in the north with WASP Southerners against Al Smith. The 1920's coincided with the rise of the KKK as an organization interlinked to both parties.
I've heard a number of blacks who grew up in the South during the Jim Crow era (including Condi Rice) who recall that Republican clerks were the only ones that would allow them to register to vote.  I've never heard anything about the GOP becoming whites only in the South, but most of the southern Democratic parties were.

I seriously doubt there were any Republican clerks in the south at that time, most offices were 100% Democratic, even the legislatures bordered on that.
108  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gov. Quinn(D-IL) Target of Criminal Probe on: May 04, 2014, 09:11:50 pm
And he'll still win because Cook County is a powerhouse. NEXT.

Exactly, which is why Mark Kirk lost Alexi Giannoulias in 2010, right?


Quinn survived in 2010 by 30,000 votes. In the collar counties he won low-mid 50% ranges, primarily on his promise not to raise taxes, and his "reformer" image. There was still a "Let's give this guy a chance" feeling in Illinois, and Brady was big on social conservativism in a socially moderate state.

Mark Kirk won in the same election by 60,000 votes, blowing Giannoulias out of the collar counties (mid-high 50%) and wiping the floor with him downstate.

Quinn's goodwill is completely gone. Quinn is actually campaigning on making the tax increase he lied about permanent. Rauner is more like Kirk, being socially moderate and focusing mostly on the economy and budget problems. He picked a good running mate, and his campaign looks to do serious damage to Quinn.

I legitimately, sincerely believe Rauner could nartowly win this thing if he plays his cards right.

And even in 2010, the "moderate" Kirk only narrowly won. 2014 isn't going to be nearly as favorable to Republican as 2010. It's very unlikely an anti-minimum wage candidate in a heavily Democratic state will wi.
Kirk has the incumbency advantage now.

Doesn't matter, in a presidential year, Kirk is at a serious disadvantage, incumbent or not.
It does matter because you're posing false equivalencies.

You're saying that Kirk won't have trouble in a presidential year? He barely won in a Republican year against an opponent with ethics issues, so what makes you think he won't have big problems in a presidential year?
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gov. Quinn(D-IL) Target of Criminal Probe on: May 04, 2014, 07:50:46 pm
And he'll still win because Cook County is a powerhouse. NEXT.

Exactly, which is why Mark Kirk lost Alexi Giannoulias in 2010, right?


Quinn survived in 2010 by 30,000 votes. In the collar counties he won low-mid 50% ranges, primarily on his promise not to raise taxes, and his "reformer" image. There was still a "Let's give this guy a chance" feeling in Illinois, and Brady was big on social conservativism in a socially moderate state.

Mark Kirk won in the same election by 60,000 votes, blowing Giannoulias out of the collar counties (mid-high 50%) and wiping the floor with him downstate.

Quinn's goodwill is completely gone. Quinn is actually campaigning on making the tax increase he lied about permanent. Rauner is more like Kirk, being socially moderate and focusing mostly on the economy and budget problems. He picked a good running mate, and his campaign looks to do serious damage to Quinn.

I legitimately, sincerely believe Rauner could nartowly win this thing if he plays his cards right.

And even in 2010, the "moderate" Kirk only narrowly won. 2014 isn't going to be nearly as favorable to Republican as 2010. It's very unlikely an anti-minimum wage candidate in a heavily Democratic state will wi.
Kirk has the incumbency advantage now.

Doesn't matter, in a presidential year, Kirk is at a serious disadvantage, incumbent or not.
110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gov. Quinn(D-IL) Target of Criminal Probe on: May 04, 2014, 06:25:26 pm
And he'll still win because Cook County is a powerhouse. NEXT.

Exactly, which is why Mark Kirk lost Alexi Giannoulias in 2010, right?


Quinn survived in 2010 by 30,000 votes. In the collar counties he won low-mid 50% ranges, primarily on his promise not to raise taxes, and his "reformer" image. There was still a "Let's give this guy a chance" feeling in Illinois, and Brady was big on social conservativism in a socially moderate state.

Mark Kirk won in the same election by 60,000 votes, blowing Giannoulias out of the collar counties (mid-high 50%) and wiping the floor with him downstate.

Quinn's goodwill is completely gone. Quinn is actually campaigning on making the tax increase he lied about permanent. Rauner is more like Kirk, being socially moderate and focusing mostly on the economy and budget problems. He picked a good running mate, and his campaign looks to do serious damage to Quinn.

I legitimately, sincerely believe Rauner could nartowly win this thing if he plays his cards right.

And even in 2010, the "moderate" Kirk only narrowly won. 2014 isn't going to be nearly as favorable to Republican as 2010. It's very unlikely an anti-minimum wage candidate in a heavily Democratic state will wi.
111  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Karen Handel launches hilarious campaign quiz. on: May 01, 2014, 02:14:43 pm
Everyone in that race is stupid for different reasons.
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-PPP: Close race on: April 30, 2014, 11:55:21 am
And suddenly, PPP will be in good graces with Republicans. I don't doubt that this race will be close, but I do think that Pryor is in the driver's seat for the time being.
113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gov. Quinn(D-IL) Target of Criminal Probe on: April 30, 2014, 10:19:52 am
And he'll still win because Cook County is a powerhouse. NEXT.
114  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: ME-Rasmussen: Sen. Collins (R) up by 36 on: April 29, 2014, 07:42:33 pm
There's no reason they should be electing anyone that supports Mitch McConnell leading the Senate, but whatever.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PPP will poll Arkansas this weekend ! on: April 29, 2014, 10:22:17 am
PPP tweets that Bill Clinton has a 55-37 favorable rating in their AR poll.

Is it only me or is that number somewhat low for Bill there ?

That's pretty close to his last vote percentage there, which isn't at all bad, considering he was last on the ballot almost 18 years ago.
116  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ Dem aims to become first openly atheist Congressman on: April 28, 2014, 06:38:41 pm
Sinema never actually claimed to be Atheist, it was just attributed to her and her response is that she doesn't subscribe to any label.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bob Schieffer: Romney may consider 2016 run if Jeb Bush doesn’t on: April 28, 2014, 02:57:13 pm
If he couldn't beat in an incumbent President in a shaky economy, his chances at an open seat are even less. Romney already demonstrated why he was a bad candidate, it's not like much will change if he runs again.
118  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which losing Pres. nominee would have had the best second chance 4 years later? on: April 27, 2014, 02:09:23 pm
Kerry, just because the presidency was an open seat and conditions were favorable to Democrats over all.
119  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GA man stalks little league game at public park with a gun, because he can on: April 27, 2014, 12:48:10 pm
Lots of people love these sort of laws, until someone actually uses them to be threatening and/or intimidating.
120  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen: Sen. Kirk re-opens campaign Facebook page on: April 27, 2014, 12:41:34 pm
Kirk barely beat an opponent with ethics questions in a heavily Republican year, so he definitely has his work cut out for him against a clean, credible opponent in a Presidential year.

Duckworth is a probable candidate. I would say that Bustos could be a possible candidate, but I don't see the state ending up with two Senators from outside of Chicagoland (Durbin is from downstate).
121  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Quinn: Black Republicans Like Pro-Nazi Jews on: April 24, 2014, 06:32:01 pm
All this about an article that was tweeted? Please.
122  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: Udall +2 on: April 23, 2014, 06:19:25 pm
Udall will win in the end. This is how Colorado polling acts literally every cycle.
Blah, blah, blah, like a broken record. You Democrats eat that up like trash.

Calm down, child.
123  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI-SEN 2016 - PPP - Johnson -6 against Feingold, +2 against Kind on: April 23, 2014, 03:14:28 pm
Kind is the mostly likely nominee and could defeat Johnson. I doubt Feingold will run and I don't think he should, he ran a poor, lazy campaign last time around.
You're posting this in a thread for a poll that shows Feingold would beat Johnson but Kind wouldn't

My point is, Feingold is screwed up and lost once by running a poor campaign. Just because he's leading doesn't mean he's the better candidate, he could drop the ball again. I would be surprised if Feingold even runs.
124  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI-SEN 2016 - PPP - Johnson -6 against Feingold, +2 against Kind on: April 23, 2014, 03:04:10 pm
Kind is the mostly likely nominee and could defeat Johnson. I doubt Feingold will run and I don't think he should, he ran a poor, lazy campaign last time around.
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) on: April 23, 2014, 09:18:32 am
This is the second poll to have Pryor up big, so something is happening in that race that is shifting it back toward Pryor's direction. That much is evident.
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