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May 02, 2016, 03:21:22 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 15, 2016, 11:10:04 am
Holmes.

Yeah.... I don't think conservadems are gonna vote for Sanders up there.

Considering the trends so far in the south, it's no outside of the equation. His best counties in southern states have been the most Republican ones for the most part.
102  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders: I ran as a Democrat to get media coverage on: March 15, 2016, 11:03:34 am
This is why is integrity and authenticity isn't superior. He fashioned himself an outsider, yet he ran in a major party primary for convenience. If it was all about the message he would have run as an independent and really tried to make it work.

I know you're just a dumb hack and I'm taking the bait by responding to this, but he's not fashioning himself as an outsider, his brand is that he hasn't changed on the issues over decades along with the rest of the so-called libs.  Has he really done that by putting a D next to his name?

Your comment about running as an independent is super-duper dumb.  It's not only about the message, it's about policy outcomes.  In a plurality voting system like the United States, you have to run under the umbrella of one of the two major parties or else you 1) have no chance for winning and 2) play spoiler for the Republicans.  You think it would be more admirable and consistent with his beliefs if he ran as an independent and tried to throw the election to a Republican?

Calling someone dumb is a poor comeback, it really is. I'm not being a dumb hack, I'm calling out the opportunism. For years, Sanders has made statements that would suggests that he questions the integrity of the Democratic Party. If one has an issue with the integrity of a party, why would you join it? It reeks of opportunism. If your message is strong enough to run on it's own, run as an independent. At this point it doesn't even matter, because he's far behind in the delegate count and he has pretty much lost self-identified Democrats everywhere.
103  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders: I ran as a Democrat to get media coverage on: March 15, 2016, 10:30:28 am
This is why is integrity and authenticity isn't superior. He fashioned himself an outsider, yet he ran in a major party primary for convenience. If it was all about the message he would have run as an independent and really tried to make it work.
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary over if Sanders wins North Carolina? on: March 15, 2016, 12:01:49 am
Not at all, because Clinton would still maintain the delegate advantage. And considering that Sanders didn't do well in Virginia which has a number of liberals like North Carolina, I don't see an upset on the horizon. North Carolina is no better than any of the southern states for Sanders and has far too many black voters for him to even get close.

I certainly agree that Clinton will likely win the NC Primary, but liberals in NOVA aren't exactly the same type of liberals you have in the Triangle or Asheville.  Also I think Bernie will do fairly well with black voters in Durham, which isn't just staunchly Democratic, but is flat out liberal white and black.

Perhaps, but so far the patterns we have seen in the south is that Sanders performs better in areas that are far removed from the more liberal and Democratic areas. We'll see what happens.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary over if Sanders wins North Carolina? on: March 14, 2016, 11:24:32 pm
Not at all, because Clinton would still maintain the delegate advantage. And considering that Sanders didn't do well in Virginia which has a number of liberals like North Carolina, I don't see an upset on the horizon. North Carolina is no better than any of the southern states for Sanders and has far too many black voters for him to even get close.
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 14, 2016, 09:02:05 pm
Holmes.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Attacker yells "Trump, Trump!" as he attacks Muslim student & Hispanic man on: March 14, 2016, 07:03:32 pm
Being called a mean word by some hick is not "an attack."

The article clearly states that there was a beating.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ***MSNBC Democratic Townhall - March 14th - Ohio & Illinois - 6-8pm ET*** on: March 14, 2016, 06:43:39 pm
Foreign policy really is an issue that has exceptions. People want Clinton to promise to never ever use military action, but that's not really a promise anyone running for President should make.
109  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Mercyhurst University: Kasich/Rubio ahead of Clinton/Sanders on: March 14, 2016, 02:17:51 pm
Candidate who aren't going to win the nomination always seem to perform better in early general election polls.

Obama also polled better than Hillary in the GE during March 2008 and he won the nomination ...

I'm talking about polling right now and more as it pertains to Republicans. Kasich is the best polling Republican, yet he has no chance at the nomination.
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Mercyhurst University: Kasich/Rubio ahead of Clinton/Sanders on: March 14, 2016, 02:02:47 pm
Candidate who aren't going to win the nomination always seem to perform better in early general election polls.
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: ARG: Trump swamps Rubio in Florida; Kasich, Clinton lead in Ohio on: March 14, 2016, 01:41:01 pm
How stupid are the people of Florida??

Smart enough not to elect an uneducated homosexual again.

What on earth?
112  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: OH PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Clinton with Slight Lead in Ohio on: March 14, 2016, 11:39:50 am
I think the mistake that many people make is thinking that independents are like a political party when they are really just people who don't align with a party, but still have ideological leans. There is often the assumption that independent means moderate.
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IL PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Clinton and Sanders Close in Illinois on: March 14, 2016, 11:31:32 am
I'm going to bet that Cook County and the Collar counties will win this for Clinton. One thing that has been underestimated about the northern states is that the more conservative and rural area will turnout in droves for Sanders. Downstate is why he is even able to compete.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ***CNN Townhall (Democrats) - Sunday 13th March - 8-10pm ET - Columbus Ohio*** on: March 13, 2016, 10:00:05 pm
Sanders isn't friends with anyone liberal in the Senate? I know that ideology doesn't automatically make people friends, but it seems like he would have at least one friend that was more like minded.

The question was about his favorite Republican colleague.

Overall and beyond partisanship, I don't think I've heard him count anyone as a friend in the Senate save for Inhofe.

You must be perpetually dizzy from spinning this much.  Yikes!

What spin was there? I was just pointing out that he has only mentioned Inhofe as a friend. The friend question isn't really important anyway.

YIKES!
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Trump wins the nomination will it be the end of the modern Republican party? on: March 13, 2016, 08:59:27 pm
If the GOP establishment try to hand pick a nominee, then the far right will splinter off into another party.
116  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ***CNN Townhall (Democrats) - Sunday 13th March - 8-10pm ET - Columbus Ohio*** on: March 13, 2016, 08:45:03 pm
Sanders isn't friends with anyone liberal in the Senate? I know that ideology doesn't automatically make people friends, but it seems like he would have at least one friend that was more like minded.

The question was about his favorite Republican colleague.

Overall and beyond partisanship, I don't think I've heard him count anyone as a friend in the Senate save for Inhofe.
117  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ***CNN Townhall (Democrats) - Sunday 13th March - 8-10pm ET - Columbus Ohio*** on: March 13, 2016, 08:34:44 pm
Wasn't Sanders saying free college for all? He seems to have changed what he was saying before.

He's always specified that it's not simply free college in general for all, but specifically free tuition for public schools. The questions posed are always phrased as free college for all, and he has to correct it every time.

The framing was different before. As I recall, he was promising free college for all and saying that it would be a cost savings, similar to single payer health care.

If you can find an example of that my apologies, but I don't believe that is true.

He introduced a bill called the Free College for All Act. In addition, his framing in earlier debates was not the same as it was tonight.

The very first line in the summary description of that bill is: "Eliminate Undergraduate Tuition at 4-year Public Colleges and Universities". Again, just find one clip or quote suggesting otherwise.

The title of the bill speaks for itself. Watch any previous debate or forum it is clear that he has changed his framing. He repeats himself all the time, so it's not hard to find.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ***CNN Townhall (Democrats) - Sunday 13th March - 8-10pm ET - Columbus Ohio*** on: March 13, 2016, 08:26:02 pm
Sanders isn't friends with anyone liberal in the Senate? I know that ideology doesn't automatically make people friends, but it seems like he would have at least one friend that was more like minded.
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ***CNN Townhall (Democrats) - Sunday 13th March - 8-10pm ET - Columbus Ohio*** on: March 13, 2016, 08:11:13 pm
Wasn't Sanders saying free college for all? He seems to have changed what he was saying before.

He's always specified that it's not simply free college in general for all, but specifically free tuition for public schools. The questions posed are always phrased as free college for all, and he has to correct it every time.

The framing was different before. As I recall, he was promising free college for all and saying that it would be a cost savings, similar to single payer health care.

If you can find an example of that my apologies, but I don't believe that is true.

He introduced a bill called the Free College for All Act. In addition, his framing in earlier debates was not the same as it was tonight.
120  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ***CNN Townhall (Democrats) - Sunday 13th March - 8-10pm ET - Columbus Ohio*** on: March 13, 2016, 07:58:28 pm
Wasn't Sanders saying free college for all? He seems to have changed what he was saying before.

He's always specified that it's not simply free college in general for all, but specifically free tuition for public schools. The questions posed are always phrased as free college for all, and he has to correct it every time.

The framing was different before. As I recall, he was promising free college for all and saying that it would be a cost savings, similar to single payer health care.
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Sanders be Hillary's VP pick? on: March 13, 2016, 07:49:14 pm
That will not happen. Clinton wouldn't offer and Sanders would never accept.
122  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ***CNN Townhall (Democrats) - Sunday 13th March - 8-10pm ET - Columbus Ohio*** on: March 13, 2016, 07:25:20 pm
Wasn't Sanders saying free college for all? He seems to have changed what he was saying before.
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in on: March 13, 2016, 05:12:51 pm
The thing about the suburban counties around Detroit is that they have a lower median income than the collar counties around Chicago. DuPage and Lake are full of wealthier establishment Democrats who are more likely to vote for Clinton.

I know that anecdotal evidence should always be taken with a grain of salt, but if anyone knows the collar counties, it's muon:

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.


Signs do not vote and the "so and so has more signs out" theory has been debunked years ago. It's the same thing as with crowd size and people assuming big crowds means a big win.

124  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in on: March 13, 2016, 04:02:00 pm
The thing about the suburban counties around Detroit is that they have a lower median income than the collar counties around Chicago. DuPage and Lake are full of wealthier establishment Democrats who are more likely to vote for Clinton.
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL/IL/OH-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton leads; R: Kasich up in OH, Trump up in FL/IL on: March 13, 2016, 01:39:17 pm
I don't see how Sanders wins Illinois unless he carries Cook County by double digits and the black vote pretty much makes that impossible. The collar counties are too wealthy to have a reason to vote for him. If he only barely won in Michigan, it's hard to see him carry Illinois.
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