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October 23, 2014, 04:25:25 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Republican pollster: Don't underestimate Dem turnout machine on: October 18, 2014, 05:20:42 pm
There are lots of voters who vote Democratic (Democrats and Independents) that really don't decide to vote until the last minute, which is why you have phone banking non-stop in the final weeks.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Benenson (D): Also Udall +3 on: October 18, 2014, 04:55:41 pm
You shouldn't have posted this, the blue avatars don't like internals being posted.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 01:40:22 pm
5150? What the hell does that mean?

Involuntary psychiatric hold. It's only a joke, not meant to be taken seriously.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 01:17:09 pm
If I'm not mistaken, there was a time that RCP didn't enter a poll last cycle, and it was an independent poll that wasn't commissioned by any group (it also showed a Republican trailing). RCP isn't all that trustworthy at times when it comes to entering polls.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 01:11:50 pm
Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

Exactly.

Yes. Therefore this specific internal poll 4 years later in a different state with a different set of candidates is most likely correct ... because math and science. And because Gardner is an extreme extremisty extremist. Abortion!

5150 time. Please, calm down, no one likes overly dramatic posts. Again, I'm standing by my predictions, thanks.
The 5150 meme is getting really, really old. Did you just figure it out today? Because your giving KC Spanking Dem a run for his money.

You are on my ignore list, so stop posting to me. It's annoying.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 01:06:27 pm
Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

Exactly.

Yes. Therefore this specific internal poll 4 years later in a different state with a different set of candidates is most likely correct ... because math and science. And because Gardner is an extreme extremisty extremist. Abortion!

5150 time. Please, calm down, no one likes overly dramatic posts. Again, I'm standing by my predictions, thanks.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 12:29:55 pm
Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

Exactly.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 11:26:43 am
Not a bad result for a +6 Republican sample. No one should be surprised if the Dem internals end up being accurate again. Democrats just don't mess around when it comes to internals, they can't afford to.

Yeah, because internals aren't released to look favorable to the candidate to rile up their base or anything to make it look like they have a chance.

All the non-partisan Senate polls are wrong. (Except those in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire that show the Democrat ahead, right?)

Again, in 2012, the internals were better at measuring the actual turnout, because a lot of the public pollsters were assuming a bigger drop off in turnout which ended up not happening.

Again, 2012 was a Presidential election year. A good number of pollsters still got it right. This is a six-year election for a two-term President. Off-year elections favor Republicans. Six-year elections are usually bad to the party of the two-term President.

Could Udall be ahead in Colorado right now? Probably not. He's behind in most polls from non-partisan sources with the exception of the YouGov poll. These polls have Gardner ahead the fringes of the margin of error.  

If you cite a D+3 poll in Iowa, that's one thing, it's around the MOE and plausible. But Udall +3 in Colorado, it doesn't match the other margins. Most reasonable minds would have to conclude that this is your typical internal poll where you are trying to rally your base.

And note, I am not saying that Udall can't pull this off. The status of the race on October 18 suggests otherwise, however.

We'll see what happens on election night. Everyone's predictions will be proven right or wrong then. I'm not going to flip out if my predictions are wrong.

The tradition isn't 'flipping out'; it's 'slinking away quietly'.

I remember quite a few overconfident Romney supporters doing that.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 11:20:55 am
Not a bad result for a +6 Republican sample. No one should be surprised if the Dem internals end up being accurate again. Democrats just don't mess around when it comes to internals, they can't afford to.

Yeah, because internals aren't released to look favorable to the candidate to rile up their base or anything to make it look like they have a chance.

All the non-partisan Senate polls are wrong. (Except those in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire that show the Democrat ahead, right?)

Again, in 2012, the internals were better at measuring the actual turnout, because a lot of the public pollsters were assuming a bigger drop off in turnout which ended up not happening.

Again, 2012 was a Presidential election year. A good number of pollsters still got it right. This is a six-year election for a two-term President. Off-year elections favor Republicans. Six-year elections are usually bad to the party of the two-term President.

Could Udall be ahead in Colorado right now? Probably not. He's behind in most polls from non-partisan sources with the exception of the YouGov poll. These polls have Gardner ahead the fringes of the margin of error.  

If you cite a D+3 poll in Iowa, that's one thing, it's around the MOE and plausible. But Udall +3 in Colorado, it doesn't match the other margins. Most reasonable minds would have to conclude that this is your typical internal poll where you are trying to rally your base.

And note, I am not saying that Udall can't pull this off. The status of the race on October 18 suggests otherwise, however.

We'll see what happens on election night. Everyone's predictions will be proven right or wrong then. I'm not going to flip out if my predictions are wrong.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 11:10:17 am
Setting all those things aside, it should be disturbing to everyone that Ernst called a mass shooting an accident, just to defend guns. How is that a normal thing to say?

Yeah because no candidate ever misspoke. Ever in the history of politics. Politically stupid, yes. Taken out of context, a bit. But evidence of mental illness. No.

I didn't say she was mentally ill. One doesn't have to be clinically insane to say crazy things.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 11:02:18 am
Not a bad result for a +6 Republican sample. No one should be surprised if the Dem internals end up being accurate again. Democrats just don't mess around when it comes to internals, they can't afford to.

Yeah, because internals aren't released to look favorable to the candidate to rile up their base or anything to make it look like they have a chance.

All the non-partisan Senate polls are wrong. (Except those in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire that show the Democrat ahead, right?)

Again, in 2012, the internals were better at measuring the actual turnout, because a lot of the public pollsters were assuming a bigger drop off in turnout which ended up not happening.

Fair enough. So how about you go by Udall's internal polling and YouGov and I'll go by literally everything else?

I don't really care what you go by, your opinion doesn't shape mine and I'm not obligated to agree with you.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 18, 2014, 11:00:59 am
Setting all those things aside, it should be disturbing to everyone that Ernst called a mass shooting an accident, just to defend guns. How is that a normal thing to say?
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 10:59:06 am
Not a bad result for a +6 Republican sample. No one should be surprised if the Dem internals end up being accurate again. Democrats just don't mess around when it comes to internals, they can't afford to.

Yeah, because internals aren't released to look favorable to the candidate to rile up their base or anything to make it look like they have a chance.

All the non-partisan Senate polls are wrong. (Except those in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire that show the Democrat ahead, right?)

Again, in 2012, the internals were better at measuring the actual turnout, because a lot of the public pollsters were assuming a bigger drop off in turnout which ended up not happening.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal on: October 18, 2014, 10:47:31 am
Not a bad result for a +6 Republican sample. No one should be surprised if the Dem internals end up being accurate again. Democrats just don't mess around when it comes to internals, they can't afford to.

5150s will be needed very soon....
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Scott Brown: If Romney was president, there'd be no concern about Ebola on: October 17, 2014, 10:58:50 pm
I'm not sure how Romney could have stopped Ebola, he's not a doctor.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So what exactly did Udall do that made Colorado voters mad at him? on: October 17, 2014, 07:55:28 pm
Gardner faking being a big moderate is what has allowed him to lead in this race. He's running around claiming to be pro-choice and pro-life at the same time, it seems and people are buying it. With that said, Udall will still win by two to four points, because of good ground work.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Kentucky Democrat can take Rand Paul's seat in 2016? on: October 17, 2014, 07:51:52 pm
Grimes could win it, depending on how well she does in this election.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 06:21:19 pm

Indeed. Ernst is of the mind that the weapons were there, but Iraq moved them before the invasion.
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lima, Ohio: A portrait of not getting by in the Rust Belt on: October 17, 2014, 04:48:40 pm
In the 50s it was easier to move to another place, right now, not so much. Affording housing is one thing and finding it is even harder.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 04:36:48 pm
The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

Roll Eyes

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.

You're right, PPP is lying and faking polls for Braley. As always, you people are 100% right!



Welcome to the ignore list.



Thank you, I was sick of you replying to my posts. Don't let the door hit you.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE-02: With Terry (R) down in the polls, Republicans getting desparate on: October 17, 2014, 02:53:13 pm
It must be pretty bad if Terry had to resort to a racist ad to try and save himself. In 2008, he was tying himself to Obama, so it's clear that he will say and do anything to keep his seat.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL-Gov, Simon Institute: Rauner in the lead on: October 17, 2014, 02:37:07 pm
Quinn will win.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Magellan (R) shows Corbett gaining on: October 17, 2014, 02:06:01 pm
If that is the best Magellan can do, then Corbett really has zero chance of winning. Anyone who thinks Corbett will win delusional at this point, because the numbers just aren't there for him to pull this out.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 01:24:58 pm
Ernst's position on Agenda 21 certainly qualifies as an extremist position. Not to mention, she called the shooting at UCSB as an accident, which was just plain crazy.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 12:37:46 pm
The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

Roll Eyes

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.

You're right, PPP is lying and faking polls for Braley. As always, you people are 100% right!
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