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November 26, 2014, 03:52:04 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-Sen: Ralston rates Reid foes on: November 16, 2014, 01:54:27 pm
I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota Roll Eyes

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Duckworth husband registers DuckworthforSenate.com on: November 15, 2014, 03:56:31 pm
Joe Walsh is hinting at a primary run, so Kirk might not even be the nominee.

He wouldn't win.

He has a good chance, he'd galvanize conservatives downstate.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Duckworth husband registers DuckworthforSenate.com on: November 15, 2014, 10:26:47 am
Joe Walsh is hinting at a primary run, so Kirk might not even be the nominee.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Duckworth husband registers DuckworthforSenate.com on: November 14, 2014, 08:25:13 pm
Kirk's downfall will be Republicans believing that Duckworth will lose. Her congressional district is more ancestrally Republican downballot than presidential numbers suggests, yet she still wins it easily.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-2016: "Heck no!" on: November 14, 2014, 05:38:53 pm
You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.
The more the merrier. We are taking all the marbles we can. Why shouldn't we? Plus, it is not like we are taking out Debbie Stabenow. This is Harry Finksing Reid, the Democratic leader. We ought to target him for the symbolism alone.

Symbolism isn't really a good reason for contesting a race, especially when Republicans have to play defense in 2016. Besides, from rumors I've been seeing, Sandoval won't be running, because Reid cut a deal with him.

We're targeting Reid because he's horrendously unpopular, and already has two undeserved victories under his belt -- 1998 when he was behind and the unpopularity of congressional Republicans let him win by less than 700 votes, and 2010 when he faced a complete nutjob and still only won by like 6%. Offense is the best kind of defense, and Reid at the moment is clearly the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat up in 2016.

I think Sandoval won't be running because he prefers being Governor and will recruit someone competent to run for the GOP (like he did for the Lieutenant Governors' race in 2014). But if you like the thought that Reid cut a deal with a Republican Governor to survive, I guess you can entertain it.

Again, symbolism isn't exactly a good reason to target someone. Reid's numbers aren't great, but he can get things done and that's the reason he's gets elected. A senator is supposed to do more than just talk or make jokes, or try to be cute, it is an actual job, you know.

And rumor has it that Reid didn't bring out his turnout machine in 2014 in exchange for Sandoval not running in 2016 (not that I think Sandoval was running anyway). Reid supposedly did the same thing with Ensign in 2006, a non-aggression pact. It's just a rumor, but not one I made up.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-2016: "Heck no!" on: November 14, 2014, 05:27:16 pm
You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.
The more the merrier. We are taking all the marbles we can. Why shouldn't we? Plus, it is not like we are taking out Debbie Stabenow. This is Harry Finksing Reid, the Democratic leader. We ought to target him for the symbolism alone.

Symbolism isn't really a good reason for contesting a race, especially when Republicans have to play defense in 2016. Besides, from rumors I've been seeing, Sandoval won't be running, because Reid cut a deal with him.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-2016: "Heck no!" on: November 14, 2014, 04:54:08 pm
You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV is now officially dead for Democrats on: November 14, 2014, 12:12:25 am
Democrats need the votes of poor people and that's where a lot of the Democratic base comes from. Democrats can't going around hating poor people, that's not going to win votes.
You don't go around hating them, but you can't go around promising to uplift them either. Most people are extremely resentful toward them because of muh taxes and teh Welfarezz!!!11
Democrats only win when they have coalition of voters, which includes the poor. Across the board, Democrats need to reach voters in need of jobs and economic growth.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV is now officially dead for Democrats on: November 13, 2014, 11:51:39 pm
Democrats need the votes of poor people and that's where a lot of the Democratic base comes from. Democrats can't going around hating poor people, that's not going to win votes.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Some of MAGOP already talking about primary challenge to Baker in 2018 on: November 13, 2014, 07:38:13 pm
They have every right to voice their opposition, if he's being too moderate, then they should be preparing to find someone to represent their values better. The Republican Party is the conservative party, and they should act as such.

We get you want the GOP to lose, but obviously Baker is the most conservative possible governor you could elect in MA.

The point is, you can't really fault these people for wanting a candidate that fits their views.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Some of MAGOP already talking about primary challenge to Baker in 2018 on: November 13, 2014, 06:08:36 pm
They have every right to voice their opposition, if he's being too moderate, then they should be preparing to find someone to represent their values better. The Republican Party is the conservative party, and they should act as such.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV is now officially dead for Democrats on: November 13, 2014, 05:57:23 pm
Right-to-work?
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NOM takes credit for electing Merkley/Moulton/Peters, targets Portman on: November 13, 2014, 02:16:09 pm
I hope they do more of this. For once, they did something useful for the country, even if it was for the wrong reason.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: After state takeover, NV GOP already writing bills to disenfranchise minorities on: November 13, 2014, 10:27:25 am
If Republicans didn't think this would impact elections, they wouldn't bother passing these laws.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 13, 2014, 01:02:02 am
House Democrats really need to send Jerry Brown some kind of present -- his popularity and successful governance was very likely what saved the close Democratic House seats in CA. At some point after he is gone, the dam will break.

The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.

Brown had almost no effect downballot, as Democrats lost Assembly seats and a state Senate seat. There was little interest in the Governor's race, because Brown was safe, so his presence didn't drive much turnout. Even when he's gone, Democrats will still win.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 12, 2014, 08:45:07 pm
Territory from the former AZ-8 was moved from AZ-1 and not included in the new AZ-2.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: After state takeover, NV GOP already writing bills to disenfranchise minorities on: November 12, 2014, 07:56:07 pm
Why don't they just declare themselves rulers for life and suspend all elections? That's practically what they want, total domination.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 12, 2014, 07:43:07 pm
If you are going to be critical, at least know what you are talking about. The portions of the former AZ-8 that were moved to AZ-1 are Republican-leaning areas, areas that Kirkpatrick lost by double digits, so I highly doubt Barber would have been saved by those precincts.

Second, the commission allows for competitiveness to be taken into account and that is just how they drew the map.
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cory Gardner and Thom Tillis won by running to the center; will they stay there? on: November 10, 2014, 08:09:06 pm
I don't recall Tillis running to the center. As for Gardner, he'll vote exactly as he did in the house.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-2016: Sestak prepares for battle on: November 10, 2014, 07:14:26 pm
Sestak can win, he came fairly close even in 2010 and has a better chance with presidential level turnout. Plus, the GOP actually in control of the Senate will not be a plus for Republicans running in blue states, obstruction doesn't win crossover support.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will the GOP try to steal 2016 like they did 2000? on: November 10, 2014, 07:04:22 pm
2000 was a once in a lifetime opportunity to commit a fraud. Unless once state led by a relative of the Republican nominee is the deciding state, then there won't be any fraud.
47  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rush Limbaugh threatens DSCC with defamation lawsuit on: November 10, 2014, 06:55:13 pm
He'll lose that lawsuit, because it's frivolous. You can't sue people for highlight your words.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: So, what happened in FL-2 and NE-2? on: November 10, 2014, 06:52:28 pm
Ashford and Graham were better candidates, and ran good campaigns. There's really no magic answer here.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn: GOP House majority may now be unshakable for a generation on: November 10, 2014, 04:57:07 pm
That's kind of a silly thing to assume, when you consider that Democrats have a chance to win back more than half the gains Republicans made this year, plus win some blue seats that Republicans hold late on in the decade. That might not result in a the House flipping, but the Republicans are more likely to lose seats than gain them in 2016.
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 50% of Republicans support impeaching Obama on: November 08, 2014, 07:09:06 pm
If Congress actually does this, it will only be a popular move among Republicans. Considering that 67 votes is needed to convict, it would be a waste of time, anyway.
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