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September 22, 2014, 09:21:07 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA: Fox News: Cassidy leads primary, up 13 (!) in runoff on: September 17, 2014, 05:42:59 pm
Remember, don't criticize the poll, it makes some of the posters here very angry when any poll that has a Republican leading is criticized.

Seriously, 31% is way too low for Landrieu in the primary.
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Quinnipac has Ernst +6 and at 50% on: September 17, 2014, 02:20:38 pm
Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Marquette: Walker+3 on: September 17, 2014, 02:03:37 pm
Still not safe Republican. Walker is still in danger, if he was as strong as everyone said he was, he'd be up 10% now.
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Quinnipac has Ernst +6 and at 50% on: September 17, 2014, 08:12:59 am
That is far different than anything else we've seen out of Iowa as of late. Considering that Republicans are going after farmers who refused to back Ernst, I find it hard to believe this poll is accurate. That's not a winning move, it reeks of desperation that can actually hurt a campaign and even the GOP is not really banking on this race as a win.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: September 17, 2014, 12:18:13 am
Legally, I don't believe there is a way to force a replacement, since it's always up to the party whether or not they want to field a replacement (that is if the law allows for one).
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-PPP: Roberts trails by 7. on: September 16, 2014, 08:26:54 pm
Yes, the residency issue is very damaging to Roberts. Partisanship might not be enough to save him and it's starting to look like it won't be enough.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CA-52: SUSA: Peters leads by 1 on: September 16, 2014, 08:19:07 pm
As I said, this is not as easy of a target as Republicans thought it would be.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-11 (NY 1 News/Siena College): Grimm (R)+4 on: September 16, 2014, 06:42:10 pm
That Green Party candidate is inflated. This should not surprise anyone, really, Republicans are going to turn out and they'll vote for anyone that has an R by their name. With that said, this is hardly out of reach, Grimm is still in danger and I expect him to lose.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Southern Progress Fund (D)/Answers Unlimited (D ?): Pryor+4 on: September 16, 2014, 03:44:13 pm
Republicans only will win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, while losing Kansas to an Independent, for a net gain for two. Arkansas might fall, but it's far from a guarantee. Everything else will go Democratic.

Isn't it more likely that Louisiana will fall than Arkansas, since she will actually need 50% of the vote in order to survive? And as far as I can remember, she hasn't been even near that number in any polls so far. I hope I'm wrong though. Smiley If I could chose, I'd rather want Louisiana to go Democratic than Arkansas.

I think Landrieu could clear 50% on election day, polling has shown her hovering close to 50%.

Let's get real. Landrieu won't clear 50% on election day. I'll bet the farm it'll come down to the runoff.

The operative word is "could". We will see who is correct on election day, it will be interesting to see how the predictions go.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Southern Progress Fund (D)/Answers Unlimited (D ?): Pryor+4 on: September 16, 2014, 11:07:04 am
Republicans only will win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, while losing Kansas to an Independent, for a net gain for two. Arkansas might fall, but it's far from a guarantee. Everything else will go Democratic.

Isn't it more likely that Louisiana will fall than Arkansas, since she will actually need 50% of the vote in order to survive? And as far as I can remember, she hasn't been even near that number in any polls so far. I hope I'm wrong though. Smiley If I could chose, I'd rather want Louisiana to go Democratic than Arkansas.

I think Landrieu could clear 50% on election day, polling has shown her hovering close to 50%.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-PPP: Roberts trails by 7. on: September 16, 2014, 11:05:49 am
What I really don't get is the pretty overt GOP support for Orman and Davis.  There are few states other than Kansas I can think of where the GOP divide is so pronounced and where a significant block of Republicans defect to the Democrats.  Sit it out?  Sure, that happens.  But actually campaign for the Democrat—or, “Independent,” as it were?  Bizarre.

That's why doing research helps, if you did that, it wouldn't be so confusing. Kathleen Sebelius got elected Governor because moderate Republicans were willing to crossover and vote for her. In the past cycle, moderate Republicans have been purged by conservative Republicans, which has triggered moderate Republicans to crossover.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Southern Progress Fund (D)/Answers Unlimited (D ?): Pryor+4 on: September 16, 2014, 11:02:55 am
Republicans only will win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, while losing Kansas to an Independent, for a net gain for two. Arkansas might fall, but it's far from a guarantee. Everything else will go Democratic.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-CNN: Dead heat on: September 15, 2014, 04:17:05 pm
This doesn't line up at all with what other polls have shown. CNN's pollster has ties to a Romney bundler, which is very interesting.

You're right: the other poll from today shows Brown up 2%. This poll doesn't jive with the Brown lead.

And here comes Mr. It's Not Over. How is Rick Santorum doing? Is he still in the race? How about that Tom Tillis lead?
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-CNN: Dead heat on: September 15, 2014, 01:44:25 pm
This doesn't line up at all with what other polls have shown. CNN's pollster has ties to a Romney bundler, which is very interesting.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-Magellan Strategies (R): IT'S HAPPENING??? on: September 15, 2014, 01:42:53 pm
No other pollster is showing a number like this. You can't just make up numbers to suit your argument. No pollster has shown Brown with a lead.
CNN has him tied, so based on that, a polling showing Brown up 1.6% isn't too far-fetched.
That doesn't really line up with what other polls have shown as of late, though.

No other pollster is showing a number like this. You can't just make up numbers to suit your argument. No pollster has shown Brown with a lead.

There two other pollsters showing the race tied.  Maybe the race really is tied.  
Yes, and both are basically internals.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-Magellan Strategies (R): IT'S HAPPENING??? on: September 15, 2014, 12:43:45 pm
No other pollster is showing a number like this. You can't just make up numbers to suit your argument. No pollster has shown Brown with a lead.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky on: September 15, 2014, 11:35:33 am
It worked for Joe Manchin.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NM-Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc: Martinez+18 on: September 15, 2014, 09:45:33 am
This doesn't really change the fact that Republican policy isn't favorable to women, and neither is their rhetoric. It's the issues that count, not putting up window dressing.
44  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Pueblo County Commission Candidate Tom Ready (R) goes truther on school shooting on: September 14, 2014, 09:06:42 am
I think the big point that is being missed here is that major candidates appeared at an event hosted by this person and haven't said a word about his comments, which are far from mainstream.
45  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Pueblo County Commission Candidate Tom Ready (R) goes truther on school shooting on: September 13, 2014, 08:34:17 pm
Before everyone goes all into extreme Republican defense mode, it's worth noting that both the Republican gubernatorial and senate candidates attended a dinner hosted by this person.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gov, AIF: Great Scott in the lead on: September 12, 2014, 09:57:28 pm
It's basically an internal, krazen. Calm down.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA-GQR: Landreiu leads 48-46 in runoff in her internal on: September 12, 2014, 07:21:21 pm
I find it hard to believe that Maness would do that much better than Cassidy, when he's only at 13% in the primary. That doesn't really make a whole lot of sense.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ben Carson Defends (Girlfriend Beating) Ray Rice on: September 12, 2014, 05:20:13 pm
Your questions are answered by the video. If Rice wants help, it's up to him to get it, no one else. If everyone just stayed quiet about the video, that would hardly help the situation.

If Rice wants help, what should happen to him?  If Rice doesn't want help, what should happen to him?

As for your second sentence, that's a false dichotomy.  In no way have I advocated for people to "just stay quiet".  There is a difference between speaking out and demonizing.  Neither I nor Carson has advocated in favor of "just staying quiet".

Why are you asking so many questions? Personally, I think he should be in jail, but I'm not on a jury nor can I bring charges, so asking me is a moot point.

You are saying that there is no point in people going on television criticizing him, because it does nothing to help him. The alternative to that is to really say nothing, which is not at all helpful.

I'm asking so many questions so that I can understand your logic.  So you think he should be in jail.  I'm assuming it's for a number of years if he wants help, but how long should he be in jail if he doesn't want help?  Asking you isn't a moot point, because the purpose of asking is to flesh out you rationale, which so far has been shaky at best.

I am not saying that there is no point in people going on television criticizing him; I'm saying there's no point in people going on television and demonizing him.  The difference there is key.  You seem to be substituting "criticize" with "demonize", and if you don't understand the difference, then it's no wonder you think Carson was wrong; however, the problem with that is that you are equating two verbs which absolutely do not mean the same thing.

You are quite argumentative. I know the difference between the two words, I'm not ignorant. There really is no debate here, Rice was wrong and that's what my point is. Why don't you answer some questions yourself; How was Rice demonized? Do you think he should have been fired? Do you think his fiancee holds responsibility for him hitting her? State exactly what your point is, because you aren't making any sense and it seems you only want to argue, as usual.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Sen: Hagan/DSCC internal has Hagan up 3. on: September 12, 2014, 07:55:32 am
Phil messed up once again, although not quite as badly as, "It's Not Over!"
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: TX: Davis trails by 8 in internal on: September 11, 2014, 09:46:50 pm
Look at it like this, even if she doesn't have a chance, she is more competent and intelligent that any challengers Republicans have put up in blue states.

Um, Charlie Baker, Neel Kashkari, Bruce Rauner and Tom Foley all come to mind as extremely intelligent and competent (at least in their non-political careers) GOP challengers for governor in blue states. And at the way things are going, even Kashkari might end up getting a higher vote percentage than Davis.

Charlie Baker is yet another Republican who lost in a banner GOP year, and Neel Kashkari's campaign is going nowhere. That homeless stunt he pulled was embarrassing.
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