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October 23, 2014, 01:36:47 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: CNN/ORC: Gardner+4 on: October 15, 2014, 04:55:29 pm
The Gardner stans are really out today. Udall will win, I'm sticking firm to my prediction.....

November 5th: UDALL WILL CRUSH GARDNER IN 6 YEARS, JUST YOU WAIT!

November 5th: Gardner wasn't conservative enough, he was an awful candidate. Tom Tancredo would have won.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: CNN/ORC: Gardner+4 on: October 15, 2014, 03:46:53 pm
The Gardner stans are really out today. Udall will win, I'm sticking firm to my prediction.....
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2 on: October 15, 2014, 03:45:07 pm
Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...

Go get yourself some water. Either their previous poll was off (which I think it was) or Ernst has collapsed, either way, these numbers are not as good for her as the previous poll.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Marquette: Tied with LVs on: October 15, 2014, 12:31:07 pm
Take a bow, Scotty.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK: Rasmussen: Sullivan +3 on: October 15, 2014, 11:49:12 am
The bush areas are definitely a place that could run up great numbers for Begich and win this race for him.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2 on: October 15, 2014, 10:16:11 am
Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-SUSA: Nunn+3 on: October 15, 2014, 10:13:59 am
It looks as if the momentum is shifting toward Nunn and SurveyUSA has picked it up.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Can Greg Abbott Be Knocked Down Once Again? on: October 14, 2014, 11:52:09 pm
Wendy Davis is a desperate punk. She'll get hers in due time.

Get hers? For doing what? Running for Governor?
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-10: Mark Kirk's ad with Bob Dold on: October 14, 2014, 11:30:39 pm
Pat Quinn won this district in 2010 of all years, so that tells you how partisan it is in it's reconfiguration.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Can Greg Abbott Be Knocked Down Once Again? on: October 14, 2014, 11:03:42 pm
Unfortunately, no.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: When will the Point of Light Defeat the Great Satan of Outsourcing? on: October 14, 2014, 10:46:34 pm
With the additional money being put in by the DSCC and Perdue's outsourcing comment, it's crazy to count Nunn out. She's got a better chance than Terri Lynn Land, who was highly overrated this cycle.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CO-06: Coffman in the lead on: October 14, 2014, 10:44:34 pm
The white liberal comment is unnecessary. Knock off your racism, it's not funny.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NH GOPer says Kuster will lose because she's "very ugly", calls GOP opponent hot on: October 14, 2014, 06:45:13 pm
Not a winning strategy.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: PPP: Tied on: October 13, 2014, 09:03:33 pm
It's disturbing to call elected politicians kings, very scary indeed that someone would view politicians like that. That aside, Brownback will still lose, 42% is horrible for an incumbent and seldom does an incumbent win with a number like that.
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead on: October 13, 2014, 08:54:11 pm

Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.

That's not how it actually works.

Those votes have to be counted on election night along with the rest of the votes.

But, we'll see who wins on election day. If it's Braley (and it will be), I'm going to directly tell you, "I told you so".
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead on: October 13, 2014, 08:30:03 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

So we've gone from 'probably already won' to 'received a good amount of the early vote' for a candidate that has 0 votes and is trailing in almost every poll.

OK!


Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead on: October 13, 2014, 08:23:43 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle. Early votes are blue. Get it through your skull

And they have to be counted on election night, whether Republican want them to be or not. Republicans rely more on election day vote, so Ernst will have to really clean up to offset the early vote.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead on: October 13, 2014, 08:11:59 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead on: October 13, 2014, 12:40:02 pm
Ernst will get at least 48%, that much is evident, but that last couple of points are less likely to materialize. Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: 3 Senate polls from High Point University out later today (NC, CO, NH) on: October 13, 2014, 12:38:40 pm
Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.

It's not unskewing like you and your people did in 2012. The demographic samples actually matter, that's why Gallup flubbed up so badly last cycle.

Try again.

I did not unskew in 2012. I admit to doing so in 2010, and having seen the results of that election, learned my lesson not to do so in 2012 or this election.

As others have mentioned before, SurveyUSA has had a tendency to give accurate top-line results despite weird crosstabs. How exactly is unskewing based on racial breakdowns that you happen to disagree with somehow better than unskewing based on partisan breakdowns that you happen to disagree with?

It's not unskewing, it's based on how previous polls have worked. PPP was able to get accurate results in 2012, because they used a demographic sample that included more minorities, when other pollsters expected those groups not to show up. Party ID is fluid, unlike demographics. This has been discussed before.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: 3 Senate polls from High Point University out later today (NC, CO, NH) on: October 13, 2014, 12:11:49 pm
A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.

He's not going to win 90% of whites. You have to realize that whites in Colorado don't vote the same as they do in the south.

Holy mathematical strawman!

Judging from who I was responding to, I figured that was what you believed.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: 3 Senate polls from High Point University out later today (NC, CO, NH) on: October 13, 2014, 12:08:51 pm
A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.

He's not going to win 90% of whites. You have to realize that whites in Colorado don't vote the same as they do in the south.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: 3 Senate polls from High Point University out later today (NC, CO, NH) on: October 13, 2014, 12:07:46 pm
Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.

It's not unskewing like you and your people did in 2012. The demographic samples actually matter, that's why Gallup flubbed up so badly last cycle.

Try again.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: 3 Senate polls from High Point University out later today (NC, CO, NH) on: October 13, 2014, 12:02:51 pm
A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: New Iowa poll at 400 MST Saturday on: October 12, 2014, 01:33:39 pm
A poll showing an Ernst lead is being celebrated as a Braley victory why?

In case you forgot, this represented a big improvement from the last poll. And considering that he's up big with those who have already voted, he's probably already won.
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