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April 29, 2017, 04:18:23 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gravis: Nelson +15 on: April 03, 2017, 04:18:51 pm
The chances of Scott defeating Nelson in such a midterm are low.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: April 03, 2017, 04:14:03 pm
Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

No because most voters would not care who Tim Ryan or Joe Crowley is they'd have low name ID. Look at Schumer/McConnell's numbers most Americans don't know who they are.

You are assuming that those people would not have name recognition if they were minority leader, which is inaccurate. Regardless of who the minority leader was, Republicans wouldn't like them. Collin Peterson would be considered a communist by these sort of people.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-06 Runoff on: March 31, 2017, 04:20:51 pm
Ossoff will win.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 30, 2017, 04:25:06 pm
When one side is putting most of their energy toward just one candidate and turning out people for just one candidate, that increases the odds of hitting 50% just based on turnout. The district swung heavily Democratic without Georgia even being a targeted state, so there is no telling what the dynamics will look like with an actual turnout operation and campaign. It's all about turnout and enthusiasm.
80  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: I didn't know Hillary joined a motorcycle gang.......... on: March 30, 2017, 03:32:22 pm
Yes. She's going to hunt you down and stomp on you. HAHAHA.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: March 29, 2017, 09:51:34 pm
Republicans don't necessarily have much cause for enthusiasm right now, which is a big turnout factor. The reverse is true for Democrats, who have a lot of motivation to turnout and seem to be doing just that.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Reuters: Breaking with tradition, Republican orgs. to go after Democratic AGs on: March 29, 2017, 09:21:32 pm
The article does state why the rules existed and it's because of cooperation across state lines. Attorneys General have to deal with issues that require out of state cooperation more than any other statewide elected office and it's wise not to cause rifts that could destabilize that.
83  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Newsweek: Comey tried to reveal "Russiagate" months earlier, got blocked by WH on: March 29, 2017, 09:04:27 pm
There is more than enough evidence for an investigation, especially considering that the House Intelligence Chair has behaved as if he is a Trump staffer. Whether or not anyone cares is not the issue (and plenty of people care), getting to the bottom of the truth is.
84  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump's Wall to Cost Upwards of $67 Billion on: March 29, 2017, 09:55:31 am
The cost will shut down the wall.
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Chuck Schumer yelling Anti-Trump rage at 80+y couple at a restaurant on: March 28, 2017, 06:42:00 pm
As already was mentioned, there was no video taken? Someone would have filmed such a scene with their phone and put it online. This really does sound fake.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-50: Duncan Hunter under investigation. on: March 24, 2017, 01:14:37 pm
Why did this area not experience a huge shift towards the Democrats unlike the other SoCal districts in 2016? Donald Trump won it by a resounding 15 point margin; what makes it so different?

That was down from the 23% win that the Republican nominee for President received in 2012. Most of the swing was out of places like Escondido and San Marcos, but those are heavily outvoted by the unincorporated areas like Lakeside. Most of the Republican vote in San Diego County is concentrated in CA-50.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-50: Duncan Hunter under investigation. on: March 23, 2017, 01:35:29 pm
The Republican State Senator from the district that corresponds mostly with CA-50 is termed out, so that's most likely who would replace Hunter.
88  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AHCA Whip Count on: March 23, 2017, 09:57:46 am

She. Beutler is a woman.
89  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: If Donald Trump went into the legal profession on: March 22, 2017, 04:05:01 pm
He'd have been disbarred years ago.

And if he managed not to get disbarred, he'd be an ambulance chaser.
90  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CNN: Former Ardent Trump Supposter, Kraig Moss, Disillusioned on: March 22, 2017, 12:15:26 pm
Elections have consequences.
91  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AHCA Whip Count on: March 22, 2017, 12:11:31 pm
^I guess is really doesn't matter to Ryan if the votes aren't there, at least as far as pulling the vote from the schedule.
92  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: AHCA Whip Count on: March 22, 2017, 11:54:06 am
This bill will be pulled. There is no way that Ryan is going to allow a vote on something that is going to fail, unless enough arms can be twisted.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV-PPP (D): Heller on track to get Blanched apparently on: March 22, 2017, 11:48:05 am
Those saying "no Republican has a chance in 2018," I refer you to 2002. Also, there is no way you'll be able to keep this TDS going for another 2 years. Trump's already being normalized and the constant attacks are going to get stale and you're gonna have to abandon the current platform and actually start offering something other than "Trump is Hitler."

I don't see how Trump is being normalized. He has made erroneous claims about wire tapping and is not backing down.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV-PPP (D): Heller on track to get Blanched apparently on: March 22, 2017, 11:44:58 am
Heller is gone.

Nothing's happening until Democrats get a serious candidate. You can't beat something with nothing.

It's unlikely that Democrats will not put up a serious candidate since this is their best chance for a pickup.
95  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Neil Gorsuch: 'employers should ask women if they want children' on: March 21, 2017, 01:52:18 pm
Look up Hunter Tylo and find out why these sort of questions can lead employers to a whole lot of trouble

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunter_Tylo#Lawsuit
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NV-PPP (D): Heller on track to get Blanched apparently on: March 21, 2017, 12:33:11 pm
Heller is gone.
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So Booker is less black than Obama? on: March 20, 2017, 11:17:44 pm
Obama's father was from a quite homogeneous area, whereas Booker's parents were not from there. Most African-Americans with roots in the country dating back into slavery do not have a solid African or black bloodline. Some of Booker's white ancestors wouldn't be recorded, because the slave masters didn't claim their children with slaves. For the most part, Obama is blacker than most African-Americans by genealogy.

Oh, I'm aware that there's plenty of non-African ancestry in most African-Americans, but "Obama is blacker than most African-Americans by genealogy"?  You mean *most* African-Americans are actually less than 50% African by ancestry?  That would surprise me.  I mean, even if there was a massive amount of cross-racial child creation, I'd assume that below a certain threshold of African ancestry (20%?  25%?) many (most?) would just identify as white.  And so they wouldn't even be counted as African-American in surveys.


What I meant was that Obama has more of a direct link to African lineage than most African-Americans who have been here for centuries. That would have been the better way to phrase it.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So Booker is less black than Obama? on: March 20, 2017, 10:07:46 pm
Obama's father was from a quite homogeneous area, whereas Booker's parents were not from there. Most African-Americans with roots in the country dating back into slavery do not have a solid African or black bloodline. Some of Booker's white ancestors wouldn't be recorded, because the slave masters didn't claim their children with slaves. For the most part, Obama is blacker than most African-Americans by genealogy.
99  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Clinton: 'I'm ready to come out of the woods' on: March 20, 2017, 09:29:57 pm
Clinton isn't going to run for another office and most people know that, but choose to ponder that anyway. It's not like she needs to anyway, because life would be more comfortable for her if she didn't run for office. After last year, why would anyone want to run for President again? It seems like her detractors want her to run more than anyone else.
100  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NBC: Alabama May Allow Church to Form Own Police Force on: March 20, 2017, 06:54:27 pm
There is no need for them to have a police force when they could just use private security. This definitely seems like something that could be used to facilitate cover-ups at the church.
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