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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 25, 2014, 09:10:10 pm
I seriously doubt that Cochran will believe that he owes black voters anything, what he did was a political maneuver and nothing more.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MS: Chris McDaniel vs. Travis Childers, who wins? on: June 25, 2014, 01:35:49 pm
I'm not ready to write off Childers yet, seeing as it looks as if McDaniel won't go away quietly.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 25, 2014, 08:28:31 am
I wouldn't consider the Tea Party dead over this, Cochran had to beg Democrats to vote for him, which is a luxury that other Republicans who have lost in primaries did not have.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is McDaniel going to run as write-in candidate? on: June 25, 2014, 08:23:24 am
Even if he doesn't have much of a chance at winning, McDaniel might not see it that way and run as a write-in. The thing to keep in mind is that McDaniel and his supporters think that Cochran hijacked the runoff by bringing in Democratic voters, that alone is enough to spur a write-in campaign.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 25, 2014, 06:44:35 am
Judging from his speech, McDaniel is going to stir up some trouble before letting this go, he has no legal recourse, but that won't stop him from complaining. And if he chooses to run as a write-in, that will be a nasty campaign.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 10:36:30 pm
Had this been a closed primary, Cochran would have lost. He begged black voters to save him and it worked. Cochran probably narrowly lost registered Republicans and white voters.

There is no such thing as a registered Republican in Mississippi.  Therefore, there is no way to close a primary in Mississippi.

Cochran won by significantly upping turnout in his strongholds.  Turnout in McDaniel's strongholds in the Pine Belt was pretty much maxed out.

Semantics, semantics, I should have said self-identified, but whatever. Looking at the map, I'd say that Cochran lost self-identified Republicans and skated through on crossover support.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 24, 2014, 10:32:42 pm
Mcdaniel has it wrapped up :success:

I'm so looking forward to tomorrow night, some people are going to be very disappointed when Cochran doesn't win. McDaniel is up eight in the last poll, it's delusional to think that he isn't going to win.

lol

Unlike some very persistent posters on this board (you know who you are), I never claim to be 100% right about all elections. I made a mistake, big freaking deal.

83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 10:30:12 pm
I just want to take this opportunity to say, to all the doubters and haters out there who said that Mississippi was way to conservative for Thad Cochran and that GOP runoffs favor insurgent candidates,

I TOLD YOU SO.

Had this been a closed primary, Cochran would have lost. He begged black voters to save him and it worked. Cochran probably narrowly lost registered Republicans and white voters.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 24: CO, FL-19, MD, MS, NY, OK, SC, UT) on: June 24, 2014, 10:25:54 pm
I seriously hope McDaniel runs as a write-in.
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Voter fraud uncovered in Wisconsin on: June 24, 2014, 01:56:06 pm
That's why they passed voter ID legislation.

No, they passed it because they thought it would effect election results. And obviously, it wouldn't have worked in this case, because this person isn't the type that Republicans believe would commit voter fraud.

It's funny when some project their bizarre beliefs onto others.

It's funny that you didn't have a real rebuttal.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 24, 2014, 01:17:21 pm
Republicans do tend to believe that voter ID would change the outcome of elections, otherwise they wouldn't bother pushing for it. To think that there is no partisan motivation is very naive.

To me it looks like the MS law has very few flaws:

Quote
The American Civil Liberties Union of Mississippi - a staunch opponent of the voter ID requirement - was ready to spend June 3 fielding complaints from voters turned away at the polls.

As it turns out, they received no such complaints, an ACLU employee told CBS News.

That success was touted by state officials after the primary.


"99.9% of Mississippians cast their ballot by showing an ID. Only 300 voters out of 400,000 voters failed to return within seven days with a photo ID to verify their affidavit ballot," commended Mississippi Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, a Republican.

"Mississippians came together and showed that we, as a state, could implement a voting requirement without federal intervention or oversight," Hosemann continued.

Quote
The Secretary of State's office reports it has received 136 phone calls by 10 a.m. regarding today's election with most concerning crossover voting.

Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann said individuals recorded as voting in the June 3 Democratic primary election are not eligible to "crossover" and vote in the Republican runoff election.

Hosemann said two of the calls received by his office were inquiries to see if a photo ID card could be issued today. Circuit Clerks are issuing photo IDs today, he said.

Those with questions about polling locations have been directed to their correct polling location.

"A quiet election where each voter is allowed to quickly cast his or her ballot without disruption is another positive step forward in Mississippi's electoral process," Hosemann said. "We are hopeful this is a continuing trend for the remainder of the day."

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2014/06/24/ms-runoff-election-blog/11302767

I wasn't making a point about the law being flawed, I was making a point about motivation. Of course Mississippi was going to be very careful with their law, because they could easily get into trouble with the federal government, it's one of the states that is held to a very strict standard because of history.
87  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Voter fraud uncovered in Wisconsin on: June 24, 2014, 01:16:30 pm
That's why they passed voter ID legislation.

No, they passed it because they thought it would effect election results. And obviously, it wouldn't have worked in this case, because this person isn't the type that Republicans believe would commit voter fraud.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 24, 2014, 11:23:40 am
Republicans do tend to believe that voter ID would change the outcome of elections, otherwise they wouldn't bother pushing for it. To think that there is no partisan motivation is very naive.
89  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Voter fraud uncovered in Wisconsin on: June 24, 2014, 10:40:09 am
But, don't get too excited, Republicans.....

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/writers/mike_ivey/voter-fraud-case-targets-scott-walker-backer/article_7afa077e-faf2-11e3-b655-0019bb2963f4.html

Quote
In one of the biggest cases of voter fraud ever in Wisconsin, a Milwaukee area health insurance executive has been charged with casting multiple votes for Republican candidates — including Gov. Scott Walker in the 2012 recall election.

Robert Monroe of Shorewood was charged Friday with 13 felonies related to his voting a dozen times in five elections between 2011 and 2012, using his own name along with his son’s and his girlfriend’s son.

According to records reviewed by WisPolitics, Monroe was considered by investigators “the most prolific multiple voter in memory.” Those records show Monroe claimed to suffer from a form of temporary amnesia and did not recall the election day events when questioned by authorities.

90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 23, 2014, 07:17:29 pm
If I need to delete that post I will.

All it would take is a Cochran supporter working at the courthouse willing to give out a stack of ballots and accept them, right?

That would be big time fraud, and carry some serious jail time.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 23, 2014, 06:47:48 pm
If Cochran did that, it is completely illegal, as it would qualify as election fraud. An absentee ballot has to be issued to registered voter with a name and address. Furthermore, where would the campaign get absentee ballots? They'd either have to steal them from voters or have registered bogus names to get ballots issued.

The reason the Democratic Party hasn't been doing this is because it's illegal.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 23, 2014, 04:24:22 pm
I'm so looking forward to tomorrow night, some people are going to be very disappointed when Cochran doesn't win. McDaniel is up eight in the last poll, it's delusional to think that he isn't going to win.

That last poll did not include any black Democrats whom Cochran has now recruited to vote for him, and did not include the absentee ballot surge. While a Cochran win may be unlikely, it's still possible.

Cochran tried that during the first round, and the results were minimal. I read that the number of voters pulling Republican ballots in heavily black precincts on 6/3 was not a sizable amount. But, the election results will speak for themselves and it won't be long before we now.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 23, 2014, 03:33:56 pm
I'm so looking forward to tomorrow night, some people are going to be very disappointed when Cochran doesn't win. McDaniel is up eight in the last poll, it's delusional to think that he isn't going to win.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Hillary hit close to 70% in California? on: June 23, 2014, 06:57:32 am
36-37% of the state is guaranteed Republican, votes that don't really move much, so the answer would be no.
95  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Profiling the "swing voter" on: June 22, 2014, 02:02:13 pm
I don't think there really is such a thing in most elections, at least not ones where there are major variances between candidates. When a county or state swings back and forth, it's usually is related to turnout or candidate quality. It's hard to imagine that a voter could swing back and forth ideologically.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 22, 2014, 12:49:57 pm
The odds of Cochran winning now are infinitesimal. I don't think there are many additional voters for him left to turn out or that there is much crossover support to be won.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mississippi 2014 discussion thread on: June 21, 2014, 08:38:53 am
Very interesting Tweets from @RidgelandRepub over the past few days...

Lots of rumor spreading there, it looks hail mary for Cochran, but considering that this person previously tweeted a lot of support for McDaniel, it doesn't seem like that would be the case. Very odd indeed.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NJ: Rasmussen: Sen. Cory Booker (D) up 13 on: June 20, 2014, 11:52:27 pm
This is par for the course for New Jersey polling. Menendez posted similar leads in 2012, but won by nearly 20% in November.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Rand Paul loses by 10 to Hillary Clinton in the state of California on: June 20, 2014, 08:00:47 pm
Bush lost California by about 10%, so that would be indicative of a more narrow win than a wide one. You'd get a Bush 2004 sort of map.
100  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Lois Lerner's hard drive destroyed on: June 19, 2014, 10:53:05 pm
Hasn't it been established that there was nothing wrong done? There were liberal groups that were scrutinized to. It's not out of the realm of possibility that political groups would try to get around regulations, so some do actually need to be scrutinized.
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