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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7 on: June 17, 2014, 03:21:13 pm
And he's been caught doing it by a member of the state legislature, who has talked about it, so it's not like it's just a rumor. It's very disgusting.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New audio of Clinton talking about 1975 defense of alleged child rapist on: June 16, 2014, 10:48:25 pm
Some people are so desperate, it's quite sad.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MS-Chism: Cochran up 1 on: June 16, 2014, 03:09:05 pm
It's worth repeating that Democrats don't show up in general elections, so it's highly unlikely they are going to turn out to rescue a Republican in a primary.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MS-Chism: Cochran up 1 on: June 16, 2014, 01:20:51 pm
At this point, Cochran has shown himself to be a senile old man who molested animals in his younger days, things that don't scream winner. This race is McDaniel's to lose.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chris Christie dancing on The Tonight Show on: June 15, 2014, 05:34:53 pm
Not a good look.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7 on: June 15, 2014, 12:06:08 pm
Ah, the usual suspects arrive, how surprising.

1. Not understanding the difference between municipal elections and federal ones is an amateur mistake. Last cycle, Louise Slaughter was supposed to lose, because her opponent had won a local election by double digits, but instead, Slaughter won by double digits. Winning big locally does not guarantee that a candidate can win federally.

2. CA-11 was still drawn for a Republican, seats with similar numbers in other states fell to Republicans in 2010. The other close contest, CA-20, still resulted in a Democratic hold. On a fair map, Democrats chances are even better of holding seats.

3. You don't have to be so condescending, but if that's your bag, whatever. Peters is a non-offensive incumbent and DeMaio isn't even a moderate, that does not suggest Lean Republican. But, when the election results are in, we'll see who is correct.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CA-52/SurveyUSA: Rep. Scott Peters (D) trails Scott DeMaio (R) by 7 on: June 14, 2014, 02:16:35 pm
Democratic incumbents don't lose in California. For example, we held CA-11 when it was a gerrymandered mess drawn for a Republican in 2010. This seat isn't like UT-4 or NC-7, it's not some heavily Republican bastion that a Democrat was just lucky to have won, it is an Obama seat and as a D+ PVI.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: AZ Gov: Christine Jones (R) guns for GOP nod on: June 12, 2014, 10:05:18 pm
She did a really weird stand up routine that was not all that funny. I think she has the potential to be a real clown if elected.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 10: AR, ME, NV, ND, SC, VA) on: June 10, 2014, 08:15:54 pm
Am I the only Democrat who's not happy about this? Reason and moderation lost, the Tea Party is back. Ugh.

You are the only one. And on what planet is Cantor moderate? lol.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Michelle Nunn, Jack Kingston, and the city of Savannah on: June 10, 2014, 08:14:30 pm
Kingston only won by 5% Chatham in his last house race and I would imagine most Democrats skipped over that race, since the district is not competitive. Much of the reason Chatham is so Democratic is because it's 41% Black and there is zero evidence to support any notion (and it will be made) that Kingston is overwhelmingly popular with black voters. In order to win it, he'd need low turnout, because crossover support is limited.

So his last House race was in 2012, when Obama was winning Chatham County by twelve points, yet Kingston still won by five. That means he was running ahead of Romney by double-digits. If he can win by five points in Chatham with a presidential electorate, he should do better than that against Nunn this year if he ends up as the nominee. It seems quixotic to say that Kingston will lose a county in 2014 that he won in 2012.
 
Don't we generally expect low turnout in midterm elections?

Statewide and against a well funded, serious opponent, there's no reason to think Kingston would carry it. A 5% win against a non-serious opponent doesn't suggest that he has any unusual sway over voters, in fact, many Democrats probably skipped over the race. Seeing as Isakson only carried it by 3% while winning by 20% statewide, I'd say that Chatham doesn't vote for Kingston, barring a wave.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 10: AR, ME, NV, ND, SC, VA) on: June 10, 2014, 07:19:11 pm
Politico calls it for Brat in an upset.

And Cantor's district is R+10, so you can forget about any sort of Democratic pick-up.

No one said there was a possibility. Your majority leader lost, that is the story.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 10: AR, ME, NV, ND, SC, VA) on: June 10, 2014, 06:57:19 pm
Reports of the Tea Party's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: The 2014 election season starts (June 10: AR, ME, NV, ND, SC, VA) on: June 10, 2014, 06:46:51 pm
This is just too good, such great entertainment.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Michelle Nunn, Jack Kingston, and the city of Savannah on: June 10, 2014, 03:01:22 pm
Kingston only won by 5% Chatham in his last house race and I would imagine most Democrats skipped over that race, since the district is not competitive. Much of the reason Chatham is so Democratic is because it's 41% Black and there is zero evidence to support any notion (and it will be made) that Kingston is overwhelmingly popular with black voters. In order to win it, he'd need low turnout, because crossover support is limited.
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MS Runoff - McDaniel up by 3, within MOE on: June 10, 2014, 12:16:27 am
The thing is, Democrats don't turnout in non-presidential elections even in D vs R match ups, so why would they be motivated to turnout for the Cochran? Most of the Democratic electorate probably isn't even paying attention to the race.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA republicans will retake control of the VA senate on: June 09, 2014, 10:15:00 pm
If this situation happened in reverse, it would no doubt be called bribery by Republicans. There are ways of doing dishonest things without breaking the law. An executive order in comparison to this is nothing and at least it would make the whole bribery scheme for naught.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Vox Populi (R): Ernst leading by 5 on: June 09, 2014, 08:45:22 am
Garbage from Dick Cheney.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: CA-Sen (2012): Pelosi vs. Fiorina on: June 09, 2014, 01:05:54 am
Fiorina (R)-55%
Pelosi (D)-40%

That would embarrass National Democrats, and possibly giving Republicans a shot of retaking the Senate that year.


That doesn't even make sense, why would Fiorina win after losing in a more favorable environment? I think you are confused.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA republicans will retake control of the VA senate on: June 08, 2014, 09:49:21 pm
Republicans should never complain about how corrupt Democrats in Chicago or Detroit are.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Sen, Loras College: Ernst in "Great news!" territory on: June 08, 2014, 08:41:14 am
Considering that she believes that mass murder is an accident and that there were WMDs in Iraq, I find this very hard to believe.

The average Iowa voter does not gaffe-track, especially those that are not big deals (like Akins and Mourdocks).  This is about on line with a Bill Cassidy or David Perdue-sized gaffe, meaning not that consequential.

There is no way that soundbite won't end up in an ad and an ad like that is very effective. I recall some saying that Akin and Mourdock would be fine because their comments weren't that big of a deal, but.....
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FiveThirtyEight Analysis: Don't Assume McDaniel Will Be Nominee on: June 08, 2014, 12:22:54 am
Democrats don't show up in non-presidential elections for their own candidates in D vs R match-ups, so they certainly aren't going to show up for Cochran.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Sen, Loras College: Ernst in "Great news!" territory on: June 06, 2014, 04:25:22 pm
Considering that she believes that mass murder is an accident and that there were WMDs in Iraq, I find this very hard to believe.
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gov, SUSA: Great Scott in the lead on: June 01, 2014, 05:09:41 pm
I think Crist will win, but short of bribing voters or stuffing ballot boxes, there is no way Democrats can guarantee a win.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul wins Michigan? on: June 01, 2014, 01:44:19 pm
That would be one of his worst states, he's a terrible fit for Michigan. No one who thinks the Civil Rights Act is a bad thing would get 40% in Detroit, even a moderate Republican would get 40% in Detroit.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead on: May 29, 2014, 10:28:04 am
Lean R
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