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October 01, 2016, 03:38:53 pm
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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would be the bigger nail in the coffin? on: September 14, 2016, 05:52:54 pm
Trump will definitely call Hillary a bitch if he's not on his proper dosage of medication. That's why he's been trying to get out of the debates, because he knows that if he's anywhere near her that he's capable of going off.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Causing the Latest Hillary Slide? on: September 14, 2016, 05:18:23 pm

78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 on: September 14, 2016, 05:03:29 pm
You go ahead let these polls boost your heads up. It's going to be a dramatically hard fall on election day. This man will never win these states. If Romney couldn't pull it off, how can Trump?

Trump isn't running against an incumbent. Also this country doesn't like electing back-to-back presidents of the same party. It happened in 1988 because Reagan was beloved, but before that, you have to go back to 1964 (Ford doesn't count because he was never actually elected to the office).

And Hillary is just not as good of a campaigner as Obama was.



Trump is a nutter, so he's in a category of his own. Second, past precedent is never a good indicator of what will happen in elections, because most precedent is always broken. Hillary Clinton is the most qualified person to run for President running against a man who is actually crazy. Come November, I have no doubt about what is going to happen.
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 on: September 14, 2016, 04:58:05 pm
You go ahead let these polls boost your heads up. It's going to be a dramatically hard fall on election day. This man will never win these states. If Romney couldn't pull it off, how can Trump?

Lack of enthusiasm among Dems Sad

Seems to me like there is plenty considering who is on the ballot. As 2012 showed, plenty of people showed up who no one every thought who show up.

Obama was running for reelection....

The post I responded to was about enthusiasm and in 2012, a lot of people underestimated who would actually show up to the poll. Obama was supposed to be the hated individual who was going to get booted out like Carter, yet that didn't happen.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 on: September 14, 2016, 04:48:21 pm
You go ahead let these polls boost your heads up. It's going to be a dramatically hard fall on election day. This man will never win these states. If Romney couldn't pull it off, how can Trump?

Lack of enthusiasm among Dems Sad

Seems to me like there is plenty considering who is on the ballot. As 2012 showed, plenty of people showed up who no one every thought who show up.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 on: September 14, 2016, 04:46:34 pm
You go ahead let these polls boost your heads up. It's going to be a dramatically hard fall on election day. This man will never win these states. If Romney couldn't pull it off, how can Trump?
Hillary Clinton

Again, let your head get boosted up, it will be all the more fun to see your emotional breakdown. Some of these Trump supporters will literally collapse when he loses.
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 on: September 14, 2016, 04:43:49 pm
You go ahead let these polls boost your heads up. It's going to be a dramatically hard fall on election day. This man will never win these states. If Romney couldn't pull it off, how can Trump?
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Another deplorable at Trump event in Asheville punched out a 69 year old woman on: September 14, 2016, 01:52:52 pm
It's okay, he's clearly a good, hard working person /sarc. Trump supporters are violent and unstable. Hillary was right when she called half of them deplorable.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-Monmouth: Trump +2 on: September 14, 2016, 01:31:47 pm
+2 is cause for celebration? If anything that means that by election day the bastard out of New York will lose by at least +5, because Nevada polling is usually crap ahead of election day. I can't wait for election day, because it's going to be even funnier than when Romney lost. The crazy white supremacists might actually riot.

cut the crap. There is more to poll analysis than sh**tting on any poll that doesn't have your witch-empress in the lead.

Nevada has a HUGE number of working class whites, employed in things like construction, etc. We know that these guys adore and worship trump. What if these close NV polls simply are revealing so much enthusiasm among these people, many of whom did not vote in 2012.

You can't just immediately dismiss polls you do not like. You red guys do it in every single thread that has trump ahead.

It's an embarrassment to Psephology

Do I have your permission to use your posts on "White People Mourning Trump"? Last election there was this great tumblr blog with people distraught over Romney losing and I want to do a similar one for Trump supporters.

With that said, it's no secret that Democrats outperform the polls in Nevada. No matter how many working class whites there are in Nevada, there are a lot of Hispanics there who will turnout just to vote against Trump. Besides, not all working class whites are going to vote for Trump.
85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-Monmouth: Trump +2 on: September 14, 2016, 01:02:49 pm
+2 is cause for celebration? If anything that means that by election day the bastard out of New York will lose by at least +5, because Nevada polling is usually crap ahead of election day. I can't wait for election day, because it's going to be even funnier than when Romney lost. The crazy white supremacists might actually riot.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's path to 270 on: September 14, 2016, 12:31:09 pm
Fraud. Namely ballot box stuffing.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5 on: September 14, 2016, 11:37:11 am
Again, people here seemed to have not learned any lessons from 2012. Romney was overestimated and on election day, everyone acted like they predicted Obama would win all along. A lot of these posts need to be bookmarked, because I'm guessing a lot of people will pretend like they never doubted Clinton will win.

Of course Clinton is the favorite, but pretending that she can just sleep through the rest of the campaign is ridiculous. Trump has a chance.

Everything rests on the debates.

I didn't say she could sleep through the campaign, my point was that this board is often very wrong at making predictions.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump now the favorite? on: September 14, 2016, 11:29:49 am
He's about as much a favorite as President Romney.
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Scraps Plans to Talk About Physical on Dr. Oz on: September 14, 2016, 11:28:30 am
As I have said before, Trump has high blood pressure and doesn't want it to get out. He's also on anti-depressants. If he wasn't, he'd sit down for this interview.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5 on: September 14, 2016, 11:26:41 am
Again, people here seemed to have not learned any lessons from 2012. Romney was overestimated and on election day, everyone acted like they predicted Obama would win all along. A lot of these posts need to be bookmarked, because I'm guessing a lot of people will pretend like they never doubted Clinton will win.
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5 on: September 14, 2016, 10:30:25 am
It is f**king Selzer! Third best pollster according to 538.

Bull****

Is it really 'bs' to find issue with the sample the poll used? It is basically 2004's electorate, but only slightly less white (per nyt ep), and somehow less Hispanic:

White: 83% (was 86% in 2004 nyt ep) vs 79% in 2012
Black: 11% (was 11% in 2004) vs 15% in 2012
Hispanic: 2% (was 3% in 2004) vs 3% in 2012

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r2.771xfmKOI/v0
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls (2004-2012)

Now, if this is what their polls tell them the electorate might look like, then ok, but before this election ever started I wholeheartedly believed the electorate was never going to look like 2004 again. IF this is what the poll really assumes, then I have to believe it is wrong. I won't presume to say how wrong, though. It's not about being some partisan hack that just wants to "unskew" to assuage my fears of a Trump presidency, but rather about how I hate this idea that because Obama isn't on the ticket, somehow everything is going back to 2004 and minorities will forever stay low-turnout. That theory is ludicrous. So is this indeed the sample of voters they used?

One thing worse than serial unskewers is the people who go around yelling "HAHA UNSKEWER" or the like whenever someone raises any kind of concern with a poll.

And for the record, since I can't rely on you to give any benefit of the doubt versus your desire to insult people, I'm only raising concern with the sample here and not trying to say Trump isn't closing the gap or perhaps even winning in Ohio right now.

This is similar to what happened with Gallup in 2012. They used an antiquated sample and ended up being wrong in the end.
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dr Omalu: Hillary was Poisoned??!! on: September 14, 2016, 10:03:29 am
This crossed my mind. Trump is not above doing something like this. He already asked his supporters to shoot her.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5 on: September 14, 2016, 09:58:36 am
The white supremacists have found a bone to chew on.  Let them have their fun, they need aast meal before they rightfully get dragged through hell in November.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Colin Powell (in personal emails): Trump is “a national disgrace” and... on: September 13, 2016, 10:13:45 pm
Powell is something that I can't say, but it rhymes with rich.
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump to call for six weeks paid maternity leave on: September 13, 2016, 10:04:05 pm
The whole idea of eliminating fraud to pay for programs is bogus because most of the time fraud is minimal. This is lip service to try and fool women voters.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NY AG Opens Inquiry into Trump Foundation on: September 13, 2016, 08:27:01 pm
Turnabout is fair play. If Republicans can investigate Hillary for nonsense, Democrats should investigate Trump for real fraud.
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ME-SurveyUSA/Colby College/Boston Globe: Clinton +3 on: September 13, 2016, 06:23:42 pm
The one county that votes Republican only did so by about 4% in 2012. I'm not sure why everyone is so determined to believe that Trump will win ME-2, because it's really not all that favorable to normal Republican presidential candidates. Bush only got 46% there both times.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton campaign puts out release explaining Pepe the Frog on: September 13, 2016, 05:52:58 pm
Anything that is co-opted by white supremacists is fair game to call out. The overarching theme now is to call out Trump for his ties to white nationalists and racists, so it makes sense that this is being highlighted. This particular meme wasn't that popular, which is why the alt-right, etc. chose to latch on to it.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Strickland says Kaine ready to be President on: September 12, 2016, 03:36:21 pm
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton leaves 9/11 memorial early due to 'overheating' - Update: diagnosed with pneumonia on: September 12, 2016, 01:22:32 pm
For full disclosure, I am disclosing that I have epilepsy and take two medications for it. I ran for office before I was even diagnosed and even had a seizure on the day of a candidate's forum, which I still attended.
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