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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: December 06, 2016, 11:47:02 pm
Westchester's also a bit less white than LI, right? Also, it has more densely populated inner suburbs I think.

Westchester is a bit less whit.  The population density of the inner suburbs are similar, and Nassau has a little more than double the density Westchester does.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's largest raw margins on: December 04, 2016, 01:42:32 pm
I was a bit taken aback (though I shouldn't have been) by Trump's raw margin in York County, PA--enough, in fact, to give him the whole state at this point.

So I was curious as to where Trump racked up similarly large vote margins in other counties.  In other words, roughly, where are the densest concentration of Trump supporters?  These are mainly going to be big suburban counties that went heavy for Trump.

CountyNearest CityTrump Margin
York, PAYork60004
Collin, TXDallas60390
Brevard, FLTitusville62169
St. Tammany, LA   New Orleans63198
Waukesha, WIMilwaukee63321
Lee, FLFort Myers66643
El Paso, COColorado Springs   71218
Ocean, NJn/a91929
Montgomery, TXHouston104479

The margins in York & Waukesha are enough to account for Trump's entire margins in those states.  The largest-margin county in Michigan (Macomb, in the Detroit suburbs, with a margin of 48,348) is obviously enough to flip that state as well.  Lee & Brevard together would flip Florida.

Utah, UT gets an honorable mention for a 73,600 vote margin between Trump and Clinton, though only a 41,650 margin between Trump and McMullin.

Note that of these, Montgomery, Collin, Waukesha, and St Tammany (the actual suburban commuter counties) actually did swing to Clinton, while the rest swung to Trump.

[Also, what's up with Polk County, OR?]

Looks like Polk is just a mistake on Dave's map
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: December 04, 2016, 12:53:49 pm
This seems to just be following a trend that's been happening over the last 10 years or so.  Inner cities going even more overwhelmingly democratic and the inner suburbs going democratic, the outer suburbs going republican and the rural areas going very republican.  Basically the further you get out from a city the more republican it gets.  If it's a big city like New York or DC it takes longer to reach the republican ring around the city.  If it's a small city like Pittsburgh the republican ring is closeby.
Nassau and Westchester both border on NYC. So, in this particular case, your explanation does not apply.
Westchester borders the Bronx, Nassau borders Queens.

There is no equivalent to Yonkers in Nassau.

Nassau County has a local/national dichotomy.  It is Democratic in national elections, but it has a strong local GOP that was the one of the last "boss-driven" organization in NY. 

Suffolk County is more Democratic on the local level, but less Democratic in state and national elections.


Both counties were traditionally Republican on the local level until the late 90's, though Democrats were generally strong in Long Beach, Glen Cove, Town of North Hempstead, Huntington and Babylon.

Democrats actually made the local gains in Nassau in the late 90's after the county's finances were in complete shambles.  They took the Legislature in 99, and Suozzi won CE by 30 points in 01.  They pretty much kept strong locally though much of the 2000's, though the Town of Hempatead and Oyster Bay remained very strong for the GOP.  Suffolk then hadd its move Democratic during the 2000's as wel.

The main difference is Suffolk generally stayed Democratic locally, while the GOP took back the CE in 09 (very narrowly) and then the legislature as well.  A bit of gerrymandering made taking back the legislature very difficult for the Democrats.  Now with the GOP back solidly in control, Nassau's finances are in the toilet once again, add in Mangano and Venditto's indictments and 2017 is shaping up to be a rough year for the Nassau GOP.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: December 03, 2016, 12:18:23 pm
So traditional patterns basically held up.  What were the swings from Obama/Romney like?

Generally the upper middle class to wealthy areas swung to Clinton, the more working class mostly white areas swung to Trump  Some precincts swung 20-30 points either way.  Sands Point precinct went to Romney by less than 1 point, went to Clinton by 31.  Some Garden City precincts, although still strong for Trump, swung by 20 points.  A Mastic Beach precinct won by Obama by 18, was won by Trump by 22.  A precinct won by Obama by 5 in Shirley, was won by Trump by 29.  Another one won by Obama by 8 was won by Trump by 33.  There were a bunch of other precincts in that area which had very hard swings.

Found the other link I was looking for, you can pull up both 2016 and 2012

http://projects.newsday.com/long-island/politics/how-long-island-voted/

5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NY State Senate 31-31 with the 8th still undecided between Venditto and Brooks on: November 30, 2016, 07:14:49 pm
Brooks up by 41,  1,100 objections have been filed more than 2/3 by Republicans.


http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/john-brooks-holds-41-vote-lead-in-8th-senate-district-race-1.12691626
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: November 28, 2016, 10:18:19 pm
LI map by Precinct

http://politics.newsday.com/election-results-map/?office1=105&office2=67&
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 21, 2016, 11:44:07 pm
Scary...

Trump 65.5%   526
Clinton 30.9%  248
Johnson 2.4% 19
Stein 1.2%  10
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: November 21, 2016, 10:51:32 pm
Being from Nassau County originally, it's changed a lot over the years.  It's not nearly as white as it used to be, but Hillary's luster did wear off a bit over the years.  Suffolk was the far bigger swing.  The biggest race in Nassau this year was the House race, the first time in a while it was a real horse race.

Where in Nassau were you from?


Suffolk did swing considerably more, which tends to make sense considering it has more of a white working class population than Nassau.  I can't pull it up now, but Newsday had a precinct map up, and it did seem like Mastic & Shirley had some of the strongest trump swings.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: November 20, 2016, 11:53:49 am
Italian population between the two isn't that much different.  Nassau is 21%, Westchester 18%.  Nassau is a bit whiter, 64% to 56% in Westchester, and less Hispanic 15% in Nassau to 23% in Westchester. 

Median income in Nassau is a bit higher, but per capita income in Westchester is higher.   Education levels are similar, though slightly higher in Westchester. 

Also as was mentioned there really is no Orthodox Jewish population in Westchester, parts of the Five Towns area especially around Lawrence is very Orthodox.  Northern portions of Great neck and into Kings Point have a large Persian population, which swung heavily R when Bush was in office (southern portions of Great Neck is more Secular and Asian and still strongly Democratic)
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why are white Manhattanites more liberal than others in NYC on: November 16, 2016, 10:46:41 pm
Very few social conservatives, more Secular (Christian and Jewish).  Higher levels of education.  Fewer working class whites.  Less ethnic.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / NY State Senate 31-31 with the 8th still undecided between Venditto and Brooks on: November 16, 2016, 10:33:24 pm
Of course if another power sharing agreement happens (which is unclear if it will happen or not)  it could make it somewhat meaningless, but 62 of the 63 races for the NY State Senate have been decided. Democrats and Republicans have each won 31 seats.  The 8th seat Incumbent Republican Michael Venditto trails Democrat John Brooks by 33 votes.

The race wasn't initially thought to be competitive, and the Republicans won the other seats on LI that were thought to be competitive (with the exception of Skelos's old seat in the 9th).  However, a little less than three weeks before Election Day, Michael Venditto's father, Town of Oyster Bay Supervisor John Venditto was arrested on corruption charges along with Nassau Co. Exec Ed Mangano and Mangano's wife for dealings with a previously indicted business owner Hendritta Singh.


His father's legal issues made a race that wasn't expected to be that competitive into a competitive one and the race  is now separated by 33 votes.  State Sen Michael Venditto is actually in a similar place his father was a year ago.  A year ago his father actually trailed slightly after the Election Day tallies in his re-election bid for Town of Oyster Bay Supervisor as he was dealing with the fallout of the indictment of Singh who he was known to be very close to along with an indictment of another Town of Oyster Bay official.  Venditto later won very narrowly once all the absentee ballots were counted.   

I live in the 6th, but literally blocks away from the 8th. 


http://www.newsday.com/opinion/eyes-on-john-brooks-michael-venditto-race-for-control-of-state-senate-1.12621150
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 31, 2016, 10:40:25 pm
IIRC early voting was NOT available in any Florida counties on the Sunday before Election Day in 2012, this year it isn't available in the entire state, but is in pretty much all the heavily populated counties
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 26, 2016, 10:58:43 pm
What is the best link to see the N.C data breakout?   

The only thing I see on the B.O.E website links to a massive excel file
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 24, 2016, 08:40:16 pm

Travis might be interesting.....
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans ahead in early voting in Florida on: October 24, 2016, 06:35:15 pm
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

Are you dense or something? It's all relative. That's like saying IA is solid D because they're ahead in raw early vote, even though they're underperforming 2012.

I was led to believe that this was an improvement from 2012.


That also included early in person voting, which began today in most counties in Florida those #'s aren't out yet.  Early in person voting started slightly later in Florida in 2012, but the day early voting began the GOP had a 66k absentee lead in returned ballot (about 5%), this year it is 2%.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-16m-floridians-having-voted-dems-cut-gop-absentee-vote-lead-in-half-in-1st-early-vote-day.html
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: October 21, 2016, 06:13:37 pm
I think this will hurt Venditto's Senate re-election chances and will boost Kaminsky big time. Wouldn't be surprised to see freak Assembly seat upset either. Mangano is toast. Kate Murray 2017? Lol

If Mangano decides to resign or is in a jail cell prior to his term ending the Nassau Leg (which is Republican) would appoint a replacement until the end of the term (the seat is up next year).  Murray is one of the names floated around, the other is State Sen. Martins assuming his likely loss to Suozzi in the 2nd Congressional District.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: October 21, 2016, 06:11:13 pm
It will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the State Senate.  There are a couple seats thought to be in play and Michael Venditto (John's son) is a State Senator as well.

If that's the case, could that hurt the younger Venditto's political future. I see Venditto as a future Senator/Governor. Young, fresh, moderate Republican.

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/john-venditto-s-arrest-may-hurt-his-son-s-race-for-state-senate-1.12482497

Venditto and moderate do not belong in the same sentence, for both father and son.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: October 20, 2016, 10:11:42 pm
It will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the State Senate.  There are a couple seats thought to be in play and Michael Venditto (John's son) is a State Senator as well.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: October 20, 2016, 07:28:54 am
My County exec, his wife and Town Supervisor were all just arrested on Federal Corruption charges.

Quote
Oyster Bay Town Supervisor John Venditto has been arrested by federal investigators in connection with a Nassau County corruption sting, a source close to the case says.
Venditto's arrest on Thursday morning comes as Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano and his wife surrendered to federal agents on corruption-related matters.

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/NY-Oyster-Bay-Supervisor-John-Venditto-Arrested-Corruption-Case-Mangano-397724081.html
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +12/12 (PA), Clinton +3/+2 (FL) on: October 09, 2016, 12:55:24 pm
i am missing something or is the current trend in PA not quite....destructive for republicans?

the west gets redder and redder but the easter bluer and the east is growing much more.


The whole PA is trending GOP has been a bunch of nonsense
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win PA and why? on: October 09, 2016, 10:22:07 am
Clinton easily.  The Philly suburbs were already a disaster for Trump and this certainly will make it worse.  Not enough of votes elsewhere for Trump to make it up or even get close.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump caught on hot mic having lewd conversation about women on: October 07, 2016, 06:54:59 pm
Out of all things Trump has said this is the most benign thing. Two guys having a chat how they would like to bang some chick. Also Donald being Donald brags a little. NO BIG DEAL! But I have no doubt that this will sink Trump the most. Not muslims comments, not "mexican thing", this will probably sink him because media will have a field day. And that tells you something about usa elections.

How is grabbing a woman by the p**** and bragging that you could get away with it since you are rich benign?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When, if ever, will NC vote to the left of PA? on: September 28, 2016, 11:07:44 pm
The whole premise is a bit flawed considering that PA isn't actually trending Republican.  PA will basically continue to stay where it is (though pockets of the state will shift) as a couple points more Democratic than the nation.  NC will continue a steady (though not hard) shift towards the Democrats and will probably take about 3 election cycles to get there
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 25, 2016, 09:26:55 pm
Trump is probably doing well in Garden City, Country Life Press, etc.

He likely will, but he likely doesn't do as well as most Republicans have there.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 24, 2016, 09:35:30 am
Sienna/Newssday have had an odd track record.  Sometimes solid Nassau 2013 CE race, sometimes awful, Nassau 09 CE race.

2012 had Romney up slightly over Obama during the homestretch

http://www.newsday.com/elections/mitt-romney-holds-slight-edge-over-barack-obama-among-li-voters-1.4162143

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