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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Preliminary 2016 Senate Race Rankings - No Tossups on: September 29, 2014, 02:49:48 pm
Since you said no toss ups, I put "tilt" ratings where I would normally put toss ups.

Alaska: Likely R - Since Murkowski will actually be on the ballot next time, it's hard to see her losing, but in a potential three way race it could be possible.
Arizona: Lean R - If McCain doesn't retire, he'd get beaten in the primary anyway.
Arkansas: Lean R - If Mike Beebe runs it's tilt D. But if he doesn't it's likely R. So I split the difference.
Colorado: Tilt D - What happens with Udall this year will speak volumes for Bennet. Fortunately for Bennet, he will benefit from presidential year turnout.
Florida: Tilt R - Lean R if Rubio doesn't run for president, but it's looking like he will.
Georgia: Lean R - Likely R if Isakson runs, tilt R if he retires and Dems get Nunn to run again.
Illinois: Lean D takeover - Hard to see how Kirk survives considering he barely beat a horrible opponent in a GOP wave year. He has no groundswell of popularity, he got hammered for lying about his war record in 2010 and won clearly as the lesser of two evils, not as an above the fray moderate. That said, Dems could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here by nominating another horrible candidate (it's Illinois after all).
Indiana: Lean R - Coats could retire, even if he doesn't it's possible he could be beaten. Ellsworth would've given him a tough race in a non wave year.
Iowa: Likely R - Assuming Grassley doesn't change his mind. If he retires, tilt D.
Kentucky: Likely R - Whether or not Paul runs for president. Though Steve Beshear running would make it tilt R.
Louisiana: Likely R - Too much in flux here to say anything, but Dems have slim odds.
Missouri: Tilt D takeover - Roy Blunt is not popular at all, and Hillary should do much better here than Obama. It feels weird putting it as tilt D, but yeah, no toss ups.
Nevada: Tilt D - So much depends on who runs. Democrats would be best without Reid, and Sandoval would put the Republicans in control if he ran (lean R minimum). In generic D vs. generic R, the Democrat has the edge though.
New Hampshire: Tilt R - This will be hotly contested, but NH is quirky enough that Ayotte could survive even in a good Dem year.
North Carolina: Tilt R - I think Burr survives by the skin of his teeth, even if Hillary narrowly wins the state.
Ohio: Lean R - Portman could be primaried, which would make this tilt...R I guess? This race should be competitive, but Portman starts with the edge.
Oregon: Likely D - Safe if Wyden runs for re-election.
Pennsylvania: Tilt D takeover -  Toomey will be in huge trouble during a presidential year with higher turnout. Since I have to pick a winner, I'm giving it to Sestak by the skin of his teeth.
Wisconsin: Lean D takeover - Johnson will probably be a one termer. He's done basically nothing he needs to do to get re-elected in a blue state. His only hope is another Republican wave dragging him over the finish line or a crappy opponent.

Everything else is safe. Overall net seats is D+4.

Specter survived in 2004 and 1992 when PA went Dem. What's the difference? And Kirk is shown to be able to hold his own based on early polls.

Nearly every incumbent holds their own in early polls.

Then why are we quick to call them gonners? I get that their states are left leaning, but Heitkamp won when her state went overwhelmingly red? Or why did Brown only lose by high singles when MA went overwhelmingly blue? I'm pretty sure Toomey and Kirk are what loons would call RINOs, so moderacy is no issue. And who is to say that those early polls aren't genuine strength?

Toomey doesn't have the suburban Philly base Specter had.  Kirk hasn't done anything to hurt or help his chance in 2016 (though his health issues could still hurt him).   However, the Dems will have a stronger candidate (almost impossible not to) in a less GOP friendly environment than 2010 in a Presidential year.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 27, 2014, 10:46:54 pm
Bushie,

As far as the company in the PM, it looks reputable, but I don't think there are any jobs that are listed that suit you.  I agree with J-Mann on the initative comment. You would be better suited in a position where you have very speciic tasks that you are asked to do and do them, if you have to think outside the box as part of a job, take things on yourself, that is something you just can't do.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 27, 2014, 10:44:37 pm
Constructive Idea #48482984:

CarMax has dealerships in both Tulsa and OKC. From my understanding, their sales associates are paid hourly rather than by commission, and since the cars have fixed non-negotiable prices, that takes a considerable amount of pressure off the salesman. At their Houston stores, they even have little golf carts to drive you to the car you want to look at, so there's not even any walking involved.

Can Jeff handle this?

Anything sales related is a major no.  To top it off a quick look at the site "unlimited earning potential" = Commission
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you a registered member of a political party? on: September 26, 2014, 10:22:48 am
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: Gardner+2 on: September 25, 2014, 11:44:45 am
Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.

I think those assuming that a 3 point error in one election (within the margin of error) is indicative of some systemic polling bias are potentially guilty of a Type I error. Udall underperformed the polls in 2008, which seems just as likely for Udall to replicate as a repeat of Bennet's 2010 upset.

Exactly.  But even assuming that PPP is off by three points every single Colorado election, this is still not bad at all for Gardner.

Didn't PPP actually overestimate Obama's performance in Colorado by a point or two, anyway?

PPP had Obama 52-46,  result was 51.45-46.09
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Pick Em, Week 4 on: September 25, 2014, 11:17:52 am

Week 4: September 24 - September 30

THU, SEP 25  
NY Giants

SUN, SEP 28
Green Bay
Houston  
Indianapolis  
Carolina
Detroit
Pittsburgh  
Miami
 San Diego  
Atlanta
 San Francisco  
New Orleans

MON, SEP 29
New England

Tie Breaker - Total Score New Orleans at Dallas-  55

7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Pick a Winner Week #4 on: September 25, 2014, 11:12:49 am
Colts
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter +1% on: September 24, 2014, 03:52:54 pm
Carter probably has a better chance of victory than Nunn at this point.

That isn't surprising. Perdue is a pretty good candidate whereas Deal is a corrupt asshole.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How often do you use ... on: September 24, 2014, 12:56:01 pm
Once.  If I go anywhere after working out it is twice, but rarely do so since I tend to work out mostly at night.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: All US/Canadian big 4 pro teams ranked on: September 24, 2014, 12:44:02 pm
76,79,86,116
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 23, 2014, 10:16:58 pm
Sorry for your loss Bushie
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 22, 2014, 11:58:34 pm
Matt, why are you making it seem like the term "loving on" kids is kin to what a pedophile does? It is not a creepy term and is a normal term used by many, many people.  No one should ever take it as a creepy term, because it's never meant in that way.

What the Oklahoma?
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do You Live in an Urban, Suburban, Exurban, or Rural Area? on: September 22, 2014, 11:49:06 pm
the American distinction between urban/suburban/exurban

I tried to find a good definition on line.  There is of course an unconvincing entry on exurbs at Wikipedia, in an article which also defines urban sprawl, suburbs, and commuter towns.  

Urban dictionary defines Exurb as "Master Planned Communities that lay outside the ring of city suburbs. Exurbs are where people can live in big, crappily built houses on the cheap, pretend to be rich yet shop at Walmart, while they spend 2 hours a day commuting to and from their highly mortgaged cribs. A place where a trip to the grocery store is a social event that involves a 10 mile drive.Where Daddy feels pressure to lease his teen a BMW, while he makes mom drive the 10 year old mini-van."

Notwithstanding the fact that "crappily" is not an actual adverb, and overlooking the grammatical error consisting of the use of the transitive verb "lay" rather than the intransitive (and correct) verb "lie", I admit that some of this applies to me.  We live in a master planned community outside the ring of city suburbs.  On the other hand, my job is only about 25 minutes (9 miles) from my crib, and the big grocery store is only 2 miles away (smaller ones are much closer.)  There are several restaurants, a small grocery, my son's dentist, our athletic club with gym and pool, a park, auto fuel, and, significantly, a liquor store, all within 1000 meters from my crib.  Also, I don't have a BMW and my wife doesn't have a mini-van.  Moreover, we definitely do not "pretend to be rich."  Rather the opposite, in fact:  despite the many threads and posts on this forum that try to apply that term to all of us in the upper quintile, I object to the term being applied to me or to my neighbors.  Still, I have to admit that a trip to Wal-mart is definitely a social event.  

m-w.com has this to say about suburb:

1  a :  an outlying part of a city or town
    b :  a smaller community adjacent to or within commuting distance of a city


and this to say about exurb:

:  a region or settlement that lies outside a city and usually beyond its suburbs and that often is inhabited chiefly by well-to-do families

Citycomfortsblog makes the argument that the distinction between suburb and exurb is neither useful nor relevant.  Not sure I agree with that either.

I suggest the following:  If the community in the 3.14 square mile area immediately surrounding your crib has a population density of 5000 people per square mile or greater, then it is urban.  If it is less than 5000 but greater than 1000, then it shall be deemed suburban.  If it is less than 1000 but greater than 100 then it shall be deemed exurban.  If it is less than 100 then it is rural.  These numbers are arbitrary and random, of course, and someone can come up with numbers that correlate to something concrete--e.g., the population density above which you are likely not to have to walk more than a mile to the nearest McDonald's or to your child's elementary school--but I suggest making the distinction, if it is to be useful, based on wholly or primarily on population density rather than aggregate population or other factors.



I even think that is a bit subjective, because there are quite a few suburban areas with a higher density than that, (primarily the older inner-suburbs),

My community is 6,582 per sq mil,  other surrounding communities
7,134 per sq mi
6,155 per sq mi
5,962 per sq mi
6,023 per sq mi
7,700 per Sq mi

These are all in southeast Nassau County,
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Predict when Bushie will reveal what his family's mysterious dilemma is. on: September 22, 2014, 11:32:32 pm
Perhaps this is why Bushie's family didn't want him to reveal it, Bushie's Great Uncle perhaps??

15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 22, 2014, 11:28:09 pm
I've eaten at BWW twice in the fall of 2013.  I'm not too thrilled with their food,  to be honest.  I don't like wings generally, so I was only able to get a cheeseburger there both times and felt I've had better burgers.  I only went because the church men's group met there for dinner and football while the ladies had a Bible Study.  It's not a place I would go on my own.

What the hell is Bible Study?

Bible Study can come in different forms.  One can either study the Bible on their own or, as these ladies were doing, studying the Bible together.  The Bible is more than just a good book.  It is the how-to book on life.  It is God's written, holy, and infallible Word to man.  It is to be studied, not just read like a John Grisham novel.

How would one go about studying the bible?  Highlighters?  Index Cards?  Giving each other quizzes on who said certain things??
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 22, 2014, 09:38:07 pm
I've eaten at BWW twice in the fall of 2013.  I'm not too thrilled with their food,  to be honest.  I don't like wings generally, so I was only able to get a cheeseburger there both times and felt I've had better burgers.  I only went because the church men's group met there for dinner and football while the ladies had a Bible Study.  It's not a place I would go on my own.

What the hell is Bible Study?
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do You Live in an Urban, Suburban, Exurban, or Rural Area? on: September 21, 2014, 11:26:29 am
I live in one of those inner suburbs that popped up right after WW2.


^^^ This
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Former Governer of CT John Rowland headed back to Jail- faces 57 years on: September 20, 2014, 12:14:04 am

Rowland is at it again....

Quote
Former Connecticut Gov. John G. Rowland, who resigned from office a decade ago in a corruption scandal, was convicted Friday of federal charges that he conspired to hide payment for work on two congressional campaigns.

Rowland, once a rising star for the Republican Party, served 10 months in prison for taking illegal gifts while in office and now as a repeat offender faces the possibility of a much stiffer sentence.

The government's case centered around a contract between Rowland and a nursing home chain owned by the husband of 2012 congressional candidate Lisa Wilson-Foley. Rowland's attorneys argued he volunteered for the campaign while receiving $35,000 to consult for her husband's company, but prosecutors said the money was an illegal payment for campaign services.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ex-conn-governor-john-rowland-convicted-conspiracy-charges-article-1.1945899
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 19, 2014, 12:56:11 pm
Nothing really wrong with Bushie's breakfast for a normal sized person, probably not the best idea for someone his size, but not completely horrible.  The skipping lunch is not good for someone with an already screwed up metabolism.

Bushie, since you went to Walmart the other day, did you buy the dumbbells I suggested and have been for motnhs & months??
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-04: Siena: Rice (D) easily winning on: September 19, 2014, 11:38:21 am
Pretty much where I would expect this race to be.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: Gravis: McConnell opens 10-point lead on: September 18, 2014, 01:40:19 pm
 McConnell has a clear advantage at this point, but isn't up 10.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8 on: September 18, 2014, 10:05:09 am
So an NBC News poll showing Udall with a comfy lead is totally plausible but a Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a similar lead is not?  Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, Democrats here and elsewhere have pointed to Udall's consistent lead in the polls as evidence of the supposed "lean D" status of the race.  In two days you have as many polls showing Gardner winning, one of which is well outside the margin.  Is he up eight?  Probably not. But he may very well be leading at this point, which is means that this race is far from Lean D.

The +6 might have been a stretch, but it was at least in the ballpark of other polls (the two before and after it was +4, +2, +3, +4).  This poll is 7 points off from anything else out recently, 6 points off from anything out the entire cycle.
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Pick Em, Week 3 on: September 17, 2014, 11:47:08 pm

Week 3: September 17 - September 23
Thursday Night Fooball

Tampa Bay at Atlanta 

SUN, SEP 21

San Diego at Buffalo   
Dallas at St. Louis   
Washington at Philadelphia 
Houston at NY Giants 
Minnesota at New Orleans
Tennessee at Cincinnati 
Baltimore
at Cleveland
Green Bay at Detroit 
Indianapolis at Jacksonville 
Oakland at New England 
San Francisco
at Arizona 
Denver at Seattle
Kansas City at Miami 
Pittsburgh at Carolina

Monday Night Football

Chicago at NY Jets

Tie Breaker -  Total Score Houston at New York Giants  44

24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Pick a Winner Week #3 on: September 17, 2014, 11:43:44 pm
Patriots
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVII: I Ate The Strawberry (The REAL, AUTHENTIC Update) on: September 17, 2014, 04:02:05 pm
Franzl, I'm not going to attack and accuse because I know it's bad for me.  I'm still trying to find ways to replace it with little extra expense.  There are no restaurants anywhere close (probably a good thing).

Do Deli's exist in Oklahoma??
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