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September 29, 2016, 12:03:39 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When, if ever, will NC vote to the left of PA? on: September 28, 2016, 11:07:44 pm
The whole premise is a bit flawed considering that PA isn't actually trending Republican.  PA will basically continue to stay where it is (though pockets of the state will shift) as a couple points more Democratic than the nation.  NC will continue a steady (though not hard) shift towards the Democrats and will probably take about 3 election cycles to get there
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 25, 2016, 09:26:55 pm
Trump is probably doing well in Garden City, Country Life Press, etc.

He likely will, but he likely doesn't do as well as most Republicans have there.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 24, 2016, 09:35:30 am
Sienna/Newssday have had an odd track record.  Sometimes solid Nassau 2013 CE race, sometimes awful, Nassau 09 CE race.

2012 had Romney up slightly over Obama during the homestretch

http://www.newsday.com/elections/mitt-romney-holds-slight-edge-over-barack-obama-among-li-voters-1.4162143

4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Georgia 1992 on: September 12, 2016, 10:31:38 pm
Yeah, flawed exit polls + Democratic media bias. They also called NH for Clinton at poll closing time, and it was very close as well. Not to mention that they projected Democrat Wyche Fowler as the winner in the GA Senate race (Fowler later lost to Republican Paul Coverdell in the runoff).


Yeah, Clinton ended up winning NH by just 1 point (huge shift from 1988 when Bush won it by 20 points; his second best state after Utah).  The liberal media is so dishonest that it's ridiculous.  Bush would have comfortably won Florida in 2000 if they did not prematurely call it for Gore.  The heavily republican panhandle is in central time zone, and lot of Bush voters stayed home when they heard that Gore had already won it.


The call was made about 10 minutes before the polls in the Central Time Zone closed....
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls? on: September 07, 2016, 10:13:03 pm
Not excited, but not worried or nervous either, and certainly not after Trump's debacle tonight.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why is Peter King (NY-2) so safe? on: September 04, 2016, 11:54:03 pm
I live in the Nassau portion of the district.

He probably would have trouble if the 90's version of his district still existed.   2000's redistricting came along with Incumbent protection for both King & Israel turning two potentially competitive swing districts into two districts, with neither one that competitive.  Suozzi could have had in 06 if he ran, but had bigger thoughts at the time.  Ironically Suozzi is now running for Israel's open seat.

The district has changed quite a bit over the years, in the 90's the district was entirely Nassau based, in the 2000's it did take a portion of SW Suffolk, now the district is primarily Suffolk based (with a much larger chunk of SW Suffolk) with only a portion of the Nassau portion of the district (SE Nassau). 


The last redistricting did make the district a bit more Democratic and the district's minority population is a bit higher as well, but also moved Suozzi (who probably still would be the strongest challenger) out of the district.   The Town of Babylon does have a solid Democratic bench, but none of them have seemed to be interested in the job or the challenge.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Emerson: Clinton +1 on: September 02, 2016, 06:33:35 pm
At this rate, I think it makes a lot more sense to agree that things have tightened significantly than to find reasons to doubt every poll.

It may be true that this poll is questionable at best. But it's not a total fabrication. Give Clinton a few extra points and the race is still closer than it should be, and certainly too close for comfort.
This.
Really, please stop to find every possible justification. The race is tightening. Clinton is still ahead, but it's more close that one month ago.

The race has tightened a bit, however bad landline only polls with terrible methodology are still bad landline only polls with terrible methodology.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict the PA Senate race on: August 22, 2016, 09:55:58 pm
McGinty by 3 or 4. Toomey runs several points better than Trump, but Trump drags him down in the Philly suburbs (which was already going to be a problem for Toomey) and the margins there are just too much to overcome.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can Darryl Glenn win a senate seat in CO? on: August 22, 2016, 09:52:45 pm
Rapidly trending Democratic state + Presidential year + horrid GOP candidate at top of the ticket for the state + bad candidate running a bad campaign = No not a shot
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump win CT? on: August 22, 2016, 09:19:06 pm
And why or why not?
It's possible, but not likely. I am sure Q will poll its home state at some point.

Roll Eyes
Roll your eyes at me all you want, but the last Q poll from June had it at -7/-5, which puts CT in "Lean D" territory. A win for Trump in that scenario is possible, but unlikely unless there's a uniform shift towards Trump.

Plus, if you have all of this movement towards Hillary in states like Texas and South Carolina, as you red avatars claim, and the national numbers basically are at Obama 2012 territory, where does the other Trump vote logically come from? The Northeast where there are a lot of blue collar Catholics.

While Connecticut is an unlikely get, it's not an impossible one for the Trump campaign. There's a difference. The question posed by the OP was can Trump win CT, not will he.  Can he win it? Sure in a perfect storm scenario. Will he win it? Probably not.

...You actually think CT is lean D?
I don't think when it comes to ratings like that. I look at data.

The RCP Average is +7.5 (2-way)/+5 (4-way) academically, that makes it lean D.

Lean D is a Democrat lead between 5 and 10 points. Obviously, we need new data points.

As I have stated numerous times on this thread the question is whether Trump can win Connecticut. He can. There is a path to victory. However, it's unlikely that he wins the state. That's a distinction with a difference.

What is Trump's path of victory in CT??   He really has none.  Trump's base is white working class voters without a college education.  That base really doesn't exist in CT, especially where the people are.  4th highest bachelor's degree % in the nation, 3rd highest advanced degrees.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Gravis Marketing: Trump+1, Clinton+1 on: August 21, 2016, 11:22:36 pm
Great poll. It's actually tied, won't be the case on election day though. Probably will still be close.

If Trump is tied in a North Carolina poll that has a 10% African American electorate...
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump win CT? on: August 21, 2016, 11:14:46 pm
Not sure if you are trolling, but I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

No Republican can win a Presidential race in CT period.  Certain Republicans can win statewide, but it would be very difficult.  They would also need to do very well with college educated middle to upper middle class voters.  This is not Trump's strong suit.  In fact Trump will probably do considerably worse than any Republican Presidential candidate in recent history with this group.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How and where does Trump crack the blue wall? on: August 21, 2016, 01:26:47 pm
Also, I don't think that NH counts as part of the blue wall, does it? I thought the blue wall comprises the states that have voted Democratic in every election since 1992.

NH in 2000 was a fluke, just like Clinton winning AZ in 1996 or Obama winning IN in 2008 was a fluke.

Assuming WI doesn't tighten significantly, he probably has to win PA, because he has zero chance of winning NH.

And zero chance of winning WI so yea.

So then PA is the do or die state for him. Case closed Tongue

That's been the case for...forever.

You know Republicans are in trouble when their chances depend on Pennsylvania.

Exactly and I do not see anyway possible that he wins PA.  Republicans no longer need to win suburban Philly to win the state, but they at least need to be competitive there and Trump will absolutely get demolished there.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How and where does Trump crack the blue wall? on: August 21, 2016, 01:16:31 pm
PA?  LMAO
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Gravis Marketing: Trump+1, Clinton+1 on: August 21, 2016, 11:51:09 am
How the hell is Trump tied here but only up 4 in South Carolina?

In the poll SC was 65% white, 29% black, about what you would expect

NC on the other hand....   
79% white, 10% African American,  9% Hispanic

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Pinal, AZ - 2004: 65K ballots, 2008: 106K ballots... why and how? on: August 20, 2016, 10:41:34 pm
Much of the northern portion of the county is a mix of Phoenix suburbs and exurbs.  The Phoenix metro saw an absolute population explosion during the 2000's (especially the middle portion of the decade leading into the collapse).  Growth while still solid has dropped considerably since the crash.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Midwestern state is Hillary most likely to lose? on: August 20, 2016, 10:24:52 pm
All three are the same chance  0
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Clinton win Madison County, AL? on: August 15, 2016, 11:14:35 pm
Madison County, Alabama:
2012:  58.5% Romney, 40.0% Obama
2008:  56.9% McCain, 42.0% Obama
2004:  58.9% Bush, 40.2% Kerry 
2000:  54.9% Bush, 42.5% Gore

Madison County, Alabama (home to Huntsville) is the type of suburban, highly educated place in the South that Clinton will have to perform well in if she hopes to put states like Mississippi and South Carolina into play.  Can she win there this year?  It hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976.

I'll say that HRC actually narrowly wins Madison County this fall.  I think she has good chances to win Madison, Lee and Tuscaloosa counties, at least in Alabama.   

Madison will certainly trend Dem and probably swings more than any other county in the state, but doubt it would be enough to flip it entirely.  High single digits is likely, with mid single  digits certainly possible, but flipping it entirely would probably take something around a 12-13 point national margin.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can Clinton win NC? on: August 15, 2016, 11:09:06 pm
I will attempt to answer the question


1.  AA support and turnout will probably be at similar levels it was in 08 & 12.  Any differences will likely be small.

2.  The state is continuing to trend Democratic

3.  White college educated voters-  Not talking about the diehards on either side, but the middle of the road political types.  Romney and McCain did have some appeal.  Trump has major problems.  Think of an area like Cary, mostly white, well educated primarily middle to upper middle class swing area with a ton of transplants.  It's going to be absolutely BRUTAL for Trump.  The Triangle is always bad for the GOP, but Trump is going to be absolutely DEMOLISHED there.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Priorities USA to Temporarily Stop Airing Ads in CO, VA and PA on: August 15, 2016, 09:27:55 pm
Pull back to what?   Are they thinking they can win with some other group of states?   What the heck is their plan here?

Clinton is basically ahead by double digits in all three.  They are pulling spending from those states to focus more on states that are a bit closer or Trump is narrowly ahead in.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Fairfax County, VA vote? on: August 15, 2016, 09:24:31 pm
Clinton around 65%, Trump won't break 30%
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Clinton +11 on: August 04, 2016, 09:51:19 pm
For all the talk about how Trump was a good fit in PA, the state might even "trend" D.

The idea he is a good fit in PA is insane.   Yes he will do well with the rural vote in western PA, which has already trended heavily R, and likely will continue to do so.  He is a BRUTAL fit for suburban Philly, Montco is going to be utterly hilarious.
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: When will Allegheny county, PA go Republican? on: August 01, 2016, 10:05:24 pm
A statewide candidate might win there under the right circumstances (such as in 2010), but the chances are quite slim and will remain so.  For President?  Basically zero anytime soon
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did your demographic vote? on: June 12, 2016, 10:53:26 am
2012

White male NY college grad 30-44 (turned 30 5 1/2 months before Election day)
61% voted,
46% Dem

2004

White male NY College grad 18-29 (graduated college 5 1/2 months before Election Day)
63% voted
50% Dem



25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is CO a Democratic state? on: June 05, 2016, 10:49:15 am
It is a Democratic leaning state.  The GOP can win it under the right circumstances, but those chances are diminishing rapidly and it will only continue to get more and more difficult.
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