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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Curious, what caused NY and CT became so liberal now (especially LI/Suburbs) on: August 07, 2017, 05:30:09 pm
I would suppose that's generally accurate, but I would still hesitate to generalize too broadly.  After all, you have Sands Point, Cove Neck, and other places like that in Nassau, and in Westchester you got Yonkers.

On the average though, you may be right.  Both counties are heavily "new money" though, even if Westchester may have a reputation of being "more established."



By no means was I suggesting that Nassau has a large WWC population (I live here so I  know its not the case) or that Westchester has none, but rather Westchester's WWC population is smaller than Nassau's, and Nassau's is smaller than Suffolk's.    All three flew leftward during the 90's in part due to Clinton combined with the GOP's uber social conservative direction.  The WWC vote in each area might explain the changes since then, especially in regards to the aftermath of 9/11, and the Trump era/
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Curious, what caused NY and CT became so liberal now (especially LI/Suburbs) on: August 07, 2017, 11:35:57 am
^ Westchester is more "establishment" than Nassau.

Westchester has significantly fewer WWC voters than Nassau, and Nassau has significantly fewer WWC voters than Suffolk.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Curious, what caused NY and CT became so liberal now (especially LI/Suburbs) on: August 07, 2017, 11:33:38 am
Many affluent voters in the NYC suburbs tend to be socially moderate to liberal as was mentioned above.  This led to a sharp Democratic trend during the 90's and into 2000.   There was a bit of a pullback to the right in many of the NYC suburbs after 9/11, although Westchester didn't really move much.   Part of that could be the WWC voters might have been more inclined to have their voting habits impacted by 9/11..  The region didn't move much over the next decade, Westchester then moved further left last year, Suffolk lurched right, meanwhile Nassau barely moved (and has been between Dem 5.6 and Dem 8.4) in each of the last four Presidential races. 
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why are educated voters less likely to support Trump than non-educated? on: July 23, 2017, 10:38:39 pm
This is something that strikes me. I've never understood the relationship between level of education and support for Trump.

Because they see his moronic tweets and hear him speak....
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Sabato: Virginia’s Ever-Changing Electoral Map on: July 15, 2017, 03:09:27 pm
Interesting analysis over at the Crystal Ball, it seems that changes in population distribution in Virginia have played a major role in shifting the state from solid red to leaning blue, the growth in northern Virginia is stunning. Right there only appears to be 2 ways a Republican candidate can win Virginia at this point, of course a candidate could rely partially on both options, one would be running up huge margins outside of the urban crescent or alternatively cutting into the Democrats margins in counties like Fairfax which Trump lost by nearly 190,000 or Arlington where he sustained a defeat of 72,000 votes, these 2 counties more then accounting for Clinton's margin of victory statewide.

On the democratic side, making Virginia more blue would rely upon shifting northern Virginia further to the left as well as making gains in the greater Richmond area. Overall, I would say it is quite likely that Virginia will continue to lean Democratic going forward with the drift of southwestern Virginia towards the GOP preventing Virginia from becoming a safe Democratic state.


I think it will become even more Democratic and be in the safe column.  SW Virginia likely could move further towards the GOP, but NOVA and Greater Richmond will likely move even more towards the Democrats.  That movement along with the current population of those areas, and population growth in those areas will make it very difficult for the GOP to stop the state from moving into the safe Dem category.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico: Cuomo wants to run as a reformer with results on: July 09, 2017, 11:46:37 am
I don't hate Cuomo but after the God awful way he has handled the LIRR he shouldn't bother

As someone who is quite familiar with the LIRR and has commuted on it in the past when I worked Downtown, I don't see how Cuomo is at fault for the LIRR issues
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6 Special election discussion thread on: June 18, 2017, 11:30:44 am
Team Handel bringing back the usual red meat for the GOP base:



https://twitter.com/Newsday/status/875498174286311424/

Lol this is actually kinda funny.

It would be genius if that exit led to a polling site lol


This sign is nowhere near the district.  On the Sagtikos Parkway in Suffolk County right around the L.I.E
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th) on: June 13, 2017, 07:57:11 pm
Keeps ticking close.  The amount of Fairfax left probably is enough for Gillepsie to eek it out, but wow
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why has North Carolina and Virginia trended Democrat 4 times in a row now? on: June 03, 2017, 08:58:53 pm
Both states have become more diverse, both states have also have fast growing well educated metro areas.  North Carolina's trend in 2016 was only marginal, in part due to GOP trends in more rural parts of the state.  Virginia experienced this as well, but the pure size of its metro population more than outweighed it.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How did Mecklenberg County, NC (Charlotte) become so liberal? on: June 03, 2017, 08:44:21 pm
My parents retired to the area, (Indian Land in Lancaster, less than 1/2 mile from the border).  Mecklenberg has become more diverse and also seen significant growth.  Much of the growth is from northern transplants, which are considerably less Republican than whites in Mecklenberg than in 2000.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: May 23, 2017, 11:12:34 pm
I grew up in the district, lines have changed, but still very Republican.  This one is a bit of a shocker.  Never even entered my mind that the Democrats could win here.

FWIW, this district became open because Saladino stepped down to become interim Supervisor in the Town of Oyster Bay following the resignation of Supervisor John Venditto after his indictment.  This is likely a bad sign for the TOB GOP in the fall.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe a racist white nationalists who voted for Hillary Clinton on: May 20, 2017, 04:03:53 pm
A contractor who did work for one of the many companies that Trump stiffed.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Delaware and Oregon voted closer to the national average than Ohio or Iowa on: May 15, 2017, 11:27:55 pm
National PV: Clinton +2.09
Oregon: Clinton +10.98 (8.87 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Delaware: Clinton +11.38 (9.27 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Ohio: Trump +8.08 (10.2 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)
Iowa: Trump +9.41 (11.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)

By the way, Virginia was also closer to the nation as a whole than Florida, Colorado closer than Wisconsin, and New Mexico closer than Georgia.

Oh, and, if you want to call Indiana competitive because of 2008 or whatever, New York was closer to the nation as a whole than Indiana!

If Ohio and Iowa are still swing states, than I guess Oregon and Delaware count too (and arguably even Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island).


You really can't make argument just off one election.  Both Ohio and Iowa did move sharply last year, but neither one moved or trended Republican in the prior elections.  Same with Indiana, it moved sharply Democratic in 2008, but really showed no trend prior.  Colorado and Virginia on the other hand  were already showing signs of becoming more Democratic before they flipped.

Now, that isn't to say the potential of those states from moving away from swing status isn't a possibility, it certainly is, especially if the Democrats don't improve with white working class voters, however one election cycle is simply not enough to tell.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Minnesota stay blue on: May 15, 2017, 11:16:03 pm
MN is anchored by a larger metro area than WI and IA, whereas MI had more non-college educated voters.

Trump did better among the college graduates demographic than among those with high school or less in Michigan, so not sure what you're talking about.

That is true if you do not include those with a post graduate degree as part of the college graduate demographic.....

Overall Clinton won by 6 among college graduates in Michigan and lost by 4 with those who didn't graduate college.  Among whites with and without a college degree, the gap was wider.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (5/2: SC-5 Primary) on: April 21, 2017, 07:06:28 am
My parents retired down to SC-5 (just over the border from Charlotte).  As much as I would like to see a Dem pickup I highly doubt it unless something major happens.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DEMS: If there's a GA-06 runoff, who do you HOPE faces Ossoff? on: April 17, 2017, 06:09:24 pm
Gray, terrible fit for the district.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NJ-11 2018: Can Rodney Frelinghuysen be defeated in 2018? on: April 16, 2017, 12:38:30 pm
If Trump's approvals are below 30% which would create a 2006 or greater type of Dem wave it is certainly possible.  Other than that, the Dems only realistic chance is if Cody jumps in and that seems unlikely.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: New York State has a budget crisis on: April 09, 2017, 10:46:05 am
Not sure how you came up with the thread title..


While it has been much better of late, NY had a long history of late budgets and there is nowvan agreement.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info on: April 07, 2017, 06:34:45 pm
Rodney Frelinghuysen's district in NJ-11 is now R+3, less Republican than before. I wonder why? It still contains ancestrally Republican Morris County.

Trump only won the district by 0.9%.   Romney won it by 5.8%.  Compared to the national average trended Dem by about 6.7%. 

Trump struggled with traditionally Republican, well educated middle to upper middle class white suburbanites, which is what a good chunk of this district is.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why was North Carolina not a swing state until 2008? on: March 12, 2017, 11:44:29 pm
Did it just take Obama to energize the black vote? Did the Research Triangle have significant population growth during the 2000s?

Probably a combination of the two along with the increased transplant growth.  You also had the national climate and a solid win for Obama in 2008 nationwide. The actual trend in NC from 0 to 08 was basically the same as the trend from 04 to 08
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Something interesting I just noticed in the results on: February 26, 2017, 11:19:26 am
Despite Minnesota being the only state Hillary won from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, it is actually the state of those from which she received the lowest portion of the vote:

1. Pennsylvania - 47.46%
2. Florida - 47.41%
3. Michigan - 47.03%
4. Wisconsin - 46.45%

5. Minnesota - 46.44%

Perhaps this suggests the Democrat's are on thin ice there if some of the third parties come home in 2020?


I wouldn't put too much stock into it.  Keep in mind Minnesota traditionally has more of an Independent streak than any of those.  In fact you need to go back to 1984 with Mondale to see a year where any of those states had a higher third party % than Minnesota (and that was Wisconsin by 0.05%)
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nassau County was more Republican than Orange CA and DuPage IL on: February 26, 2017, 11:06:12 am
But Nassau has a more observant Jewish population than most places, so I'm not so sure you can simply plug in the national Jewish vote figure for Nassau Jews. 



This is generally true, though certainly depends on the area.   Plainview, Jericho, Roslyn, southern half of Great Neck are all heavily Jewish and staunchly Democratic.  The northern portions of Great Neck, especially in the Kings Point area have a strong Russian and Persian Jewish population and have swung heavily Republican.  The Five Towns region also use to be heavily Democratic and as swung Republican, especially Lawrence, which is heavily Orthodox.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did college towns swing towards Hillary? on: February 20, 2017, 12:49:43 am
Educated voters. The swings on many college campuses might not have been large enough to swing a entire county other than very marginally, considering the actual college student vote is only a small portion of the county vote in most cases.  However, most counties with a large college campus tend to have higher levels of education than the population as a whole.  Those with high levels of education trended very heavily towards Clinton.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Obama win Indiana? on: February 20, 2017, 12:36:21 am
Several factors played a role.  Indiana's economic issues as mentioned, combined with the spillover effect along with Obama actually campaigning there can't be overlooked.  You also had a population center in Marion County which was trending Dem for a bit make a real hard Dem trend (Kerry + 1.9 to Obama+28.3
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Chelsea Clinton to run for NY Senate 2020 if Gillibrand gets the nomination on: February 19, 2017, 12:58:38 pm
The article which was alluded to and not actually linked to doesn't state they would run in 2020, but rather the impact the 2020 election could have if Gillibrand were to set her sights on the White House (and win).

Of course the article is pure speculation of what could happen.  If Gillibrand were to run and win in 2020 a Special Election would be held for her seat in 2022, and of course before we would even get to that point, the Governor would be the one making an appointment to the Senate seat in the interim.
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