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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: May 23, 2017, 11:12:34 pm
I grew up in the district, lines have changed, but still very Republican.  This one is a bit of a shocker.  Never even entered my mind that the Democrats could win here.

FWIW, this district became open because Saladino stepped down to become interim Supervisor in the Town of Oyster Bay following the resignation of Supervisor John Venditto after his indictment.  This is likely a bad sign for the TOB GOP in the fall.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe a racist white nationalists who voted for Hillary Clinton on: May 20, 2017, 04:03:53 pm
A contractor who did work for one of the many companies that Trump stiffed.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Delaware and Oregon voted closer to the national average than Ohio or Iowa on: May 15, 2017, 11:27:55 pm
National PV: Clinton +2.09
Oregon: Clinton +10.98 (8.87 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Delaware: Clinton +11.38 (9.27 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole)
Ohio: Trump +8.08 (10.2 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)
Iowa: Trump +9.41 (11.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole)

By the way, Virginia was also closer to the nation as a whole than Florida, Colorado closer than Wisconsin, and New Mexico closer than Georgia.

Oh, and, if you want to call Indiana competitive because of 2008 or whatever, New York was closer to the nation as a whole than Indiana!

If Ohio and Iowa are still swing states, than I guess Oregon and Delaware count too (and arguably even Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island).


You really can't make argument just off one election.  Both Ohio and Iowa did move sharply last year, but neither one moved or trended Republican in the prior elections.  Same with Indiana, it moved sharply Democratic in 2008, but really showed no trend prior.  Colorado and Virginia on the other hand  were already showing signs of becoming more Democratic before they flipped.

Now, that isn't to say the potential of those states from moving away from swing status isn't a possibility, it certainly is, especially if the Democrats don't improve with white working class voters, however one election cycle is simply not enough to tell.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Minnesota stay blue on: May 15, 2017, 11:16:03 pm
MN is anchored by a larger metro area than WI and IA, whereas MI had more non-college educated voters.

Trump did better among the college graduates demographic than among those with high school or less in Michigan, so not sure what you're talking about.

That is true if you do not include those with a post graduate degree as part of the college graduate demographic.....

Overall Clinton won by 6 among college graduates in Michigan and lost by 4 with those who didn't graduate college.  Among whites with and without a college degree, the gap was wider.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (5/2: SC-5 Primary) on: April 21, 2017, 07:06:28 am
My parents retired down to SC-5 (just over the border from Charlotte).  As much as I would like to see a Dem pickup I highly doubt it unless something major happens.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DEMS: If there's a GA-06 runoff, who do you HOPE faces Ossoff? on: April 17, 2017, 06:09:24 pm
Gray, terrible fit for the district.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NJ-11 2018: Can Rodney Frelinghuysen be defeated in 2018? on: April 16, 2017, 12:38:30 pm
If Trump's approvals are below 30% which would create a 2006 or greater type of Dem wave it is certainly possible.  Other than that, the Dems only realistic chance is if Cody jumps in and that seems unlikely.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: New York State has a budget crisis on: April 09, 2017, 10:46:05 am
Not sure how you came up with the thread title..


While it has been much better of late, NY had a long history of late budgets and there is nowvan agreement.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info on: April 07, 2017, 06:34:45 pm
Rodney Frelinghuysen's district in NJ-11 is now R+3, less Republican than before. I wonder why? It still contains ancestrally Republican Morris County.

Trump only won the district by 0.9%.   Romney won it by 5.8%.  Compared to the national average trended Dem by about 6.7%. 

Trump struggled with traditionally Republican, well educated middle to upper middle class white suburbanites, which is what a good chunk of this district is.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why was North Carolina not a swing state until 2008? on: March 12, 2017, 11:44:29 pm
Did it just take Obama to energize the black vote? Did the Research Triangle have significant population growth during the 2000s?

Probably a combination of the two along with the increased transplant growth.  You also had the national climate and a solid win for Obama in 2008 nationwide. The actual trend in NC from 0 to 08 was basically the same as the trend from 04 to 08
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Something interesting I just noticed in the results on: February 26, 2017, 11:19:26 am
Despite Minnesota being the only state Hillary won from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, it is actually the state of those from which she received the lowest portion of the vote:

1. Pennsylvania - 47.46%
2. Florida - 47.41%
3. Michigan - 47.03%
4. Wisconsin - 46.45%

5. Minnesota - 46.44%

Perhaps this suggests the Democrat's are on thin ice there if some of the third parties come home in 2020?


I wouldn't put too much stock into it.  Keep in mind Minnesota traditionally has more of an Independent streak than any of those.  In fact you need to go back to 1984 with Mondale to see a year where any of those states had a higher third party % than Minnesota (and that was Wisconsin by 0.05%)
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nassau County was more Republican than Orange CA and DuPage IL on: February 26, 2017, 11:06:12 am
But Nassau has a more observant Jewish population than most places, so I'm not so sure you can simply plug in the national Jewish vote figure for Nassau Jews. 



This is generally true, though certainly depends on the area.   Plainview, Jericho, Roslyn, southern half of Great Neck are all heavily Jewish and staunchly Democratic.  The northern portions of Great Neck, especially in the Kings Point area have a strong Russian and Persian Jewish population and have swung heavily Republican.  The Five Towns region also use to be heavily Democratic and as swung Republican, especially Lawrence, which is heavily Orthodox.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did college towns swing towards Hillary? on: February 20, 2017, 12:49:43 am
Educated voters. The swings on many college campuses might not have been large enough to swing a entire county other than very marginally, considering the actual college student vote is only a small portion of the county vote in most cases.  However, most counties with a large college campus tend to have higher levels of education than the population as a whole.  Those with high levels of education trended very heavily towards Clinton.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How did Obama win Indiana? on: February 20, 2017, 12:36:21 am
Several factors played a role.  Indiana's economic issues as mentioned, combined with the spillover effect along with Obama actually campaigning there can't be overlooked.  You also had a population center in Marion County which was trending Dem for a bit make a real hard Dem trend (Kerry + 1.9 to Obama+28.3
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Chelsea Clinton to run for NY Senate 2020 if Gillibrand gets the nomination on: February 19, 2017, 12:58:38 pm
The article which was alluded to and not actually linked to doesn't state they would run in 2020, but rather the impact the 2020 election could have if Gillibrand were to set her sights on the White House (and win).

Of course the article is pure speculation of what could happen.  If Gillibrand were to run and win in 2020 a Special Election would be held for her seat in 2022, and of course before we would even get to that point, the Governor would be the one making an appointment to the Senate seat in the interim.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cruz calls for Bolton to replace Flynn on: February 18, 2017, 04:07:14 pm
Certainly appears Bolton is the front runner at this point.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cruz calls for Bolton to replace Flynn on: February 18, 2017, 12:06:33 am
Bolton is one of three potential candidates Trump is meeting with this weekend to discuss the position.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What's your accent? on: February 15, 2017, 11:55:49 pm
Pretty much what I figured

19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NY Times: Trump campaign aides had repeated contacts with Russian intelligence on: February 14, 2017, 11:41:25 pm
Again, how do they know this?
FBI surveillance

-Did they have a warrant? I object to warrantless wiretaps.

The Russian officials were the ones being monitored.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: White House reportedly looking at potential replacements for Michael Flynn on: February 13, 2017, 10:55:59 pm
Flynn  just resigned
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: February 11, 2017, 11:04:22 am
Well, Nassau Republican party has always been in a league of its own. One would have thought that the Suozzi interlude would have taught them humility, though.

Perhaps Cuomo will appoint Suozzi to Mangano's vacancy.

Mangano would have been the strongest candidate for NY Governor in 2018 had this not come about.  The Nassau County GOP is, perhaps, the last old-time "bossed" political organization.

Mangano's trial has been set for early net year, chances are he isn't going to resign prior to then and his seat is up for in November so the chances of a vacancy are slim.  Not to mention, Suozzi probably wouldn't leave Congress to take the seat and the decision would not even  be Cuomo's.  It would be up to the Nassau County Legislature which currently has a 11-8 GOP advantage.


It also looks like there are more involved than the Mangano's and Venditto, a special Grand Jury has been put together to look into more corruption in the Town of Oyster Bay, looking at wiretaps, etc

http://longisland.news12.com/news/report-special-jury-probes-oyster-bay-corruption-case-1.13107566
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Are Irish Americans in New York City fiscally and social conservative? on: February 07, 2017, 12:10:52 am
Woodlawn is about as Irish as you can get.

Bayside as well. Travel around Bayside, it's Trump country.

Not because it's Irish though. Woodland is as democratic as you can get, and the republican there are probably Italians.

What? No. Woodlawn Heights (the Irish area of Woodlawn) is very Republican, the most Republican neighborhood in the Bronx (doesn't sound like it's saying much, but there are a few pockets of Republicanism even there), and has been for quite some time. On the other hand, most recent Irish immigrants there are not citizens and not eligible to vote, so you're talking more longer-term residents. The Italian presence in Woodlawn is minimal.

Agreed that Bayside is irrelevant to the discussion. It's not an Irish neighborhood. Woodlawn Heights is the only neighborhood in NYC that can validly be described as "Irish".
What brand of Republicanism? Irish(AOH) or American(GOP)?

A mix of both. But Bayside and Douglaston is Irish. The LIRR Douglaston station, has a lot of beautiful Irish pubs. It's definitely Trump country in some areas. De Blasio won some areas there against Republican Joe Lhota in 2013.

https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/numbers/clinton-trump-president-vice-president-every-neighborhood-map-election-results-voting-general-primary-nyc
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why NC Stopped Trending Democratic on: January 16, 2017, 11:23:02 am
Swung Republican in 2012 and 2016, but swinging and trending are two different things.  In swung less than the national average so actually trended Democratic in both 2012 and 2016 (albeit narrowly in 2016)
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How and when does New England go Republican? on: January 16, 2017, 11:18:33 am
Don't know when. From far away Texas, NE looks pretty foreboding. I do find it interesting that GOP can win governorships there but presidential elections not so much

With the exception of Maine (which had a liberal 3rd party candidate), GOP candidates for Gov who run and win are considerably less conservative than any Republican who can win a Presidential nomination.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Orange County, CA and Elliot County, KY on: January 14, 2017, 02:23:15 pm
Orange County has large and growing Hispanic and Asian populations and whites tend to be well educated, Elliot County is almost all white with low education levels.  The end
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