Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 06, 2016, 08:31:34 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 504
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crawford and Monroe Countes - WTF? on: Today at 02:57:26 pm
Very small counties, Crawford has 8 precincts, Monroe 7, so he grabs a couple precinct delegates in those counties and the % winds up being quite a bit higher than others.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) on: February 02, 2016, 12:18:15 am
There's more precincts outstanding in Clinton counties than Sanders counties. Clinton probably squeaks by.

Probably, but there is a lot of Polk where Clinton is doing well, but there have been a lot of Bernie precincts there so we don't know how that will turnout.
We actually do.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/694364051283927041

Not really that goes by precincts left by results in which the county was leading.  Tht is easy enough to figure out.  The question, especially regarding Polk, is where in Polk are the remaining precincts?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results on: February 01, 2016, 12:52:57 pm
Sanders by 2, O'Malley with something like 0.2% (might reach the threshold it a couple precincts)

Trump 29, Cruz 25, Rubio 23

Carson 7
Bush 5
Paul 4
Kasich 4
Christie 2
Carly 1
Huckabee 1
Santorum .5

= 102 due to rounding, those who have the same %, I put in order of where I think they will be at that %
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What religion were you RAISED with? on: February 01, 2016, 12:04:58 pm
Catholic, made my Communion and Confirmation, but other than that rarely went to Church other than Christmas and Easter up to that point.  Since my Confirmation have very rarely been to Church including Holidays, nor have my Parents.  Don't think they have been to Church since prior to them moving to the Carolinas (and that was in 09).  Last time I was at Church other than Wedding or Funeral service was probably the early 2000's
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results on: February 01, 2016, 10:41:32 am
Are they exit polls or entrance polls? If they're entrance polls, O'Malley's percentage is going to be seriously overestimated.

Entrance polls
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results on: February 01, 2016, 10:32:33 am
Sanders by 2, O'Malley with something like 0.2% (might reach the threshold it a couple precincts)

Trump 29, Cruz 25, Rubio 23
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 4th quarter fundraising #s on: January 27, 2016, 11:36:04 am
When these GOP fundraising #'s come out right before the Iowa caucus and are pitifully low, will they hurt the campaigns?

I think it will be too close to Iowa to have much of an impact, but those #'s combined with a poor performance in Iowa the next day certainly can.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-03: Steve Israel retiring on: January 24, 2016, 04:43:51 pm
Jon Kaiman the former Town of North Hempstead Supervisor and current NIFA chief is the first Democrat that will make it official that he is running other including Suozzi have annoucned they intent to run, set up exploratoy commite's, etc, Kaiman is the first stating he is running.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-03: Steve Israel retiring on: January 22, 2016, 12:52:45 pm
Having lived in District 3 for several years, it still tilts Democratic.  Nassau County is further left than Suffolk. In a presidential year, the odds of Democrats holding the district will be even greater.  Off year is where a GOP pickup would be more likely.

Under the previous lines the GOP would pretty much have no chance.  Redistricting made both Israel and King's districts more competitive in an open seat.  With that being said in a Presidential year it tends to lean more Democratic, and the Democratic bench is a bit deeper, especially considering while they aren't tied directly to the current ethics scandals in the area, the bulk of the GOP bench are close to those who are (Skelos, Mangano, Walker, Venditto)
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CNN/WMUR-NH-BERNIE 60%, HILLARY 33% on: January 20, 2016, 12:10:19 am
Bernie is clearly  up in N.H, and likely pretty comfortably, but its not 27...
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-03: Steve Israel retiring on: January 19, 2016, 12:23:14 pm
Suozzi ran again in 2013 and it really wasn't close, but considering what has been going on with Mangano over the last few months the 13 loss might not really hurt him.  Either way Suozzi getting into the mix, he is clearly the biggest name on either side.

Many people (myself included) wanted him to go after King a few years back, but with re-districting changing the district lines a bit, he is no longer in that district.

The district is one of the wealthiest in the country, and certainly not socially conservative.  Ted Cruz would get absolutely obliterated on the top of the ticket which would likely have a downballot impact.




Its been a few years, but the only reason I can recall for Suozzi losing in 2009 was because Mangano promised to lower taxes (property in this case) and Nassau has some of the highest property taxes in the entire Country. If the race later this year is more focused on social issues like gun control and has much higher turnout than the dreadful 2014 election, then Suozzi is a shoe-in.

From 2008-2010 wasn't New York State something like 27 D to 2 R in Congress? We need to get back to that golden era. Especially upstate, there's too many Republican Reps up there. Sorry Torie

It was an energy tax that Suozzi put forth to close a budget gap that Mangano made an issue out of and said he would repeal.  Came out to something like $40 per property, turnout was light so he was able to use that to his advantage, he did repeal it when he was elected and it blew a hole through the budget, and the county's finances have become a bigger mess since then.  The county finances are the least of Mangano's problems right now. 


Anyway Suozzi jumping in changes the dynamics of the race.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-03: Steve Israel retiring on: January 18, 2016, 11:47:00 pm
NY-01's congressman is Lee Zeldin, not altschuler.

Sorry I forgot to respond to this earlier

I know Altschuler isn't the rep. I didn't know that the guy's name was Zeldin, so I called him "Altschuler Junior".

 
As perNewsday (behind a paywall), Suozzi is going to jump in and make an announcement tomorrow.

OMG! That is the best news I've heard in days. Suozzi is awesome, he never should have been defeated in 2009. I remember when he first got elected Nassau County Exec. in 2001, after Gulotta had run the place into the ground.

Newsday's paywall is awful. You can't use the website at all.

Suozzi ran again in 2013 and it really wasn't close, but considering what has been going on with Mangano over the last few months the 13 loss might not really hurt him.  Either way Suozzi getting into the mix, he is clearly the biggest name on either side.

Many people (myself included) wanted him to go after King a few years back, but with re-districting changing the district lines a bit, he is no longer in that district.

The district is one of the wealthiest in the country, and certainly not socially conservative.  Ted Cruz would get absolutely obliterated on the top of the ticket which would likely have a downballot impact.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-03: Steve Israel retiring on: January 18, 2016, 10:28:13 pm
With the Nassau machine here I think they will pick the right candidate that could potentially win the district. With Clinton at the top of the ballot I don't know what to say here. Tilt D perhaps?

GOP machine has had a few issues here of late  Skelos's conviction (granted he is out of the district, but a big part of the machine) combined with the ethics issues hounding both Mangano and Venditto (who needed a recount to hold on to his Supervisor seat in very Republican TOB) with ongoing investigations
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-03: Steve Israel retiring on: January 18, 2016, 10:19:31 pm
As perNewsday (behind a paywall), Suozzi is going to jump in and make an announcement tomorrow.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 4th quarter fundraising #s on: January 15, 2016, 07:43:40 pm
Aren't we six hours from the deadline?

Has anyone released hard numbers yet? (I know Sanders, Clinton, Cruz, and Carson have released estimates)

No, deadline is the 31st
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats: Will you support your primary opponent in the general election? on: January 13, 2016, 06:54:25 pm
Yes, I will vote for Sanders in the Primary, but will certainly vote for Hillary in the General if she is the nominee.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Against the Spread pick 5 on: September 13, 2015, 11:31:48 am

missed 1st game

Packers     by 6.5 over the BEARS- PACKERS
COWBOYS by 6 over the Giants  GIANTS
Seahawks  by 4 over the RAMS Seattle
BRONCOS  by 4.5 over the Ravens Denver
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Current status of SSM in the holdout states (MAP) on: September 03, 2015, 07:27:38 pm
Jesus shua you sound like a goddam fool. You really do. You're critiquing constitutional law and somersaulting over logic to support a narcissist who won't do her job or allow those she has authority over to do theirs.

You may have trouble keeping up with my line of thought but that's no reason to get nasty.

I'm not being nasty. You sound foolish. Sleep on it and read what you've been saying in the morning.

I haven't had a good night sleep lately so it may be a while before my mind reaches afleitch levels of spontaneous enlightenment.

To succeed that you may need to become the next Rip Van Winkle.

It may require a persistent vegetative state before I come to the conclusion that someone being a narcissist means I should be perfectly ok with jailing them.


She isn't being jailed for being a narcissist, she is being jailed for breaking the law and failing to comply with a direct court order.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Current status of SSM in the holdout states (MAP) on: September 03, 2015, 04:25:43 pm
This is fycked up.  They can't fire her for not doing this but they can jail her?

The world is oh so much safer I'm sure with her behind bars.   

They can't fire her because she's a state official. She has two easy options though:

1-Comply with federal law.
2-Resign her position so someone who will comply will take over.

Do either one and she's out easily. Do her job or make it so that someone else will. How else to handle it?

She even has another option as well, keep her job and remain in her position, but allow her deputy clerks to issue the licenses, she refused to do that as well.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Current status of SSM in the holdout states (MAP) on: September 03, 2015, 03:26:40 pm
Until last year, Dutch municipalities had the right to hire officials who didn't want to issue marriage licences to gays - and we have had gay marriage since 2001...

Did those officials bar other officials in their jurisdiction of issuing the marriage licenses as well?

Btw, she was given the opportunity to get out of jail without having to issue the licenses herself and keep her job, by allowing the deputy clerks to issue them, she refused.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Current status of SSM in the holdout states (MAP) on: September 03, 2015, 02:31:36 pm
This is fycked up.  They can't fire her for not doing this but they can jail her?

The world is oh so much safer I'm sure with her behind bars.   



She defied a direct court order. Go to jail. Go directly to jail. Do not pass Go, do not collect $200.

This isn't monopoly, we are talking about real people.

If you are I broke the law and refused to abide by a Court order what do you think would happen?

It's clear what would happen.  The Courts can lock up anyone they like for the stupidest of reasons.  And liberals across the country are celebrating.


Breaking the law and not following a direct court order is a stupid reason?
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Current status of SSM in the holdout states (MAP) on: September 03, 2015, 02:22:53 pm
This is fycked up.  They can't fire her for not doing this but they can jail her?

The world is oh so much safer I'm sure with her behind bars.   



She defied a direct court order. Go to jail. Go directly to jail. Do not pass Go, do not collect $200.

This isn't monopoly, we are talking about real people.

If you are I broke the law and refused to abide by a Court order what do you think would happen?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When did you first hear of each of the candidates? on: August 27, 2015, 08:33:19 pm
Wow this thread makes me feel old....


Clinton -1992
Sanders -late 90's
Biden - late 90
O'Malley - 2004 or so
Chafee - 2002  (Iraq vote)
Webb - 2006

Bush - around the time W was elected
Trump - mid 90's
Rubio - 2009
Walker - 2010
Kasich - 2008 maybe
Carson - 2006 name was mentioned in the Wire
Christie - 2006/07
Huckabee - early 2000's
Santorum - early 2000's.
Paul - 2009
Cruz - 2012
Fiorina - 2010, though may have heard the name during her HP days
Gilmore - 2004
Graham - early 2000's
Jindal - 2006 maybe
Pataki - 1994
Perry -his absurd Lawrence V Texas reaction


24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: IA-CNN Dems: Hillary 50, Sanders 31 on: August 13, 2015, 11:34:24 am
urban:

Clinton 46%
Sanders 37%

rural:

Clinton 54%
Sanders 21%

I'd be interested in more polls that have rural/urban numbers. I remember that some of us (myself included) thought that Sanders would do well in Iowa because of the large rural population reminiscent of Vermont. Maybe it would play out in somewhere more rural like North Dakota?

Bernie is strongest in liberal areas  You have a large liberal voting block in the rural areas of New England.  You really don't have that in Iowa, as the more liberal areas tend to be Des Moines, Iowa City,etc and the rural sections more conservative.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you think the debate next week will turn out? on: July 29, 2015, 01:22:36 pm
Complete Circus
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 504


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines