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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: October 31, 2014, 06:49:43 pm
Astronino's campaign is calling registered Democrats on Long Island with Romney.   I just got a robocall from Mitt Romney urging me to vote for Astronino.......
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Projection on: October 31, 2014, 01:19:58 pm
Does anybody trust it? My problem is that they are super over reactive to every poll. One liberal poll showing Begich up that doesn't even change the average and Alaska is suddenly a Dem hold. Are you kidding me?

I actually found this site through election projection.  He isn't always right, but his projections seem to be fair (he is a conservative btw).  As far as not changing the average, it actually does.  As you get closer to the election, he changes the period from last 30 days to last 14 days in the polls that he uses.  Since there has been limited Alaska polling in the last couple weeks, the Begich +6, did change the average  Barring any other polls coming out of Alaska between now and then, his next update which should be shortly will have Alaska going back to the GOP once the Rasmussen poll which just came out is added.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Best county for Howie Hawkins (G) in New York? on: October 31, 2014, 12:35:45 pm
Yeah, I'm inclined to think Ulster too. It all depends on how many Teachout voters he get's.

Tompkins will edge out Ulster
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 31, 2014, 12:30:55 pm
According to AP, republicans have 10% lead in early vote nationally. I don't have a link, but drudge is reporting it.

There is no way to really tell that on a narional scale considering quite a few states have no registration by party.  If someone can list out all the states that have early voting and register by party we could perhaps figure that out, but I have a hard time believing it is anywhere near +10 GOP, especially adding NC into the mix.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is there any chance Landrieu breaks 50% on Nov. 4th? on: October 31, 2014, 12:27:54 pm
No, I would expect her to be around 45%, her ceiling is probably 47-48%
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Pick Em, Week 9 on: October 30, 2014, 04:41:33 pm
Panthers for now
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato: Calling the House Tossups on: October 30, 2014, 03:08:54 pm
NY-01 and NH-01 are also hilarious.

^^^^^  This
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: TIED RACE on: October 30, 2014, 02:13:33 pm
Yea, that stat about Gardner only leading early voters by 1 is garbage, and the actual results prove it.

Not saying I agree with Gardner+1 among early voters, but Colorado registered Republicans tend to vote D more than registered Democrats vote Republican, and/or Unaffiliated voters lean Democratic. 
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: October 29, 2014, 04:19:35 pm
Do you guys think Astorino could hold Cuomo to a 10% or so margin? Cuomo's campaign seems to be a disaster at this point, he looked like a waffling incompetent with the ebola nurse thing, and it looks like Hawkins will get at least 7%.

No.  Astronino is a pro-life, anti-ssm, pro fracking nutcase
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 29, 2014, 04:16:41 pm
I'm completely lost now. Where is bushie's computer? Where is he staying? Where does he sleep at his parents house now that his room has been turned into the train room?

^^^^

Bushie, are you staying with your grandma or with your parents now?Ö.because I'm confused.


I'm staying at my parents' right now, but will move over to Grandma's in mid-November.  There is no room to set up my computer at my parents' without it being in the way, so I can't set it up here, I'll have to set it up at Grandma's and leave it.

Could you install the software on the computer you just used to type that??
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 29, 2014, 09:53:06 am
Have you napped? Had Braum's?

Yes and Yes and add sloppy jos for supper.

autocad?

No, unfortunately.  The AutoCAD computer is not set up, yet and even when it is later this week, we have company coming through for the first half of November, so I won't be able to use the computer with the AutoCAD until they all leave on November 15.

Roll Eyes

My sentiments exactly...

Why exactly does the presence of company make it impossible for you to prepare for the job for which you've claimed multiple times that you're going to actually work?

Because the computer will be at my grandmother's and that's where the company will be, too.  They will be using the bedroom that my computer is in.  I don't want to set it up here and then take it down two weeks later and move it.  First off, there's no room at my parents' for the computer.


And you can't set it up in your room because??

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 29, 2014, 12:11:01 am
Have you napped? Had Braum's?

Yes and Yes and add sloppy jos for supper.

autocad?

No, unfortunately.  The AutoCAD computer is not set up, yet and even when it is later this week, we have company coming through for the first half of November, so I won't be able to use the computer with the AutoCAD until they all leave on November 15.

Roll Eyes

My sentiments exactly...

Why exactly does the presence of company make it impossible for you to prepare for the job for which you've claimed multiple times that you're going to actually work?

Because the computer will be at my grandmother's and that's where the company will be, too.  They will be using the bedroom that my computer is in.  I don't want to set it up here and then take it down two weeks later and move it.  First off, there's no room at my parents' for the computer.


And you can't set it up in your room because??
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What avatar color and state would best fit the preceding poster? on: October 28, 2014, 04:03:29 pm
D-MD
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe Your County on: October 28, 2014, 12:10:13 pm
Did something similar in another thread.

Nassau County, NY.  Inner NYC suburb on Long Island.  Population of around 1.35 million, population density is higher than most cities.

Fairly diverse as a whole, with a growing Hispanic and Asian populations especially, however many areas are still fairly segregated.  The county was once very Republican, though trended heavily Democratic during the 90's.  Moved back slightly GOP after  9/11, but still leans Democratic as a whole.  SE Nassau County tends to be very Republican, Democrats are strongest in central Nassau in areas with a large minority population, as well as portions of east-central and north-central (though not the far north shore) in upper middle class areas that have a large Jewish and Asian population.

Social conservatism is basically a non-starter, the Republicans areas tend to be either fiscally conservative or law and order conservative (Giuliani types)

County as a whole has one of the higher incomes in the country.   Certainly has its share of working class areas, most of the county is middle class, but with also large sections of upper middle class areas.  The upper middle class areas section by section can be some of the most politically diverse depending on the specific area.  Garden City for example is one of the most Republican portions of the county, and is heavily white with a tiny Jewish population.  Areas such as Roslyn, Jericho and the southern half of Great Neck have similar incomes as Garden City, but far more Jewish and Asian and much more Democratic as well.  Some areas of extreme wealth also exist, along the Gold Coast- these areas tend to be fairly politically diverse as well.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 27, 2014, 05:31:05 pm
Bushie, you seem to have fallen for a common misconception. Revelation is the final book of the Christian New Testament, heavily steeped in obscure imagery. It was written by an unknown author during the first century CE.

You seem to be referring to events described in the best-selling apocalyptic thriller Left Behind, co-written by the American evangelical Chistian minister Tim LaHaye in the mid-90s and loosely inspired by imagery described in Revelation. It was made into a direct-to-video movie starring Kirk Cameron in 2000.


Revelation was written by the Apostle John, the same John that was a disciple of Jesus.

I have never read nor seen Left Behind, so this is all personal belief and study from what I read in Revelation.  Although, I do look at www.endtime.com and get a lot of guidance from them.  They are a Pentecostal organization based in Plano, Texas that is all about the end time.  I do not take them as knowing exactly what will happen, but a general guideline of what to expect.  They are the best interpretation of Revelation that I have seen in a long time.
FFS
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: name an area and describe the most prevalent ideology on: October 27, 2014, 05:19:32 pm
Nassau County

south-east Nassau County.-- (Levittown, Bethpage, Wantagh, Massapeqa)  Mostly white, heavily Italian and Irish.   Mostly Republican, tend to be fiscal conservatives and law and order type of conservatives, socially moderate.  Rudy would be very popular here.  Primarily middle class, with some upper-middle class sections closer to the water.  Some more diverse middle class areas (portions of East Massapequa) that lean D, rest of the area is primarily Republican.  This can be extended westward a bit to south central portions of Nassau, but southern wealthier sections of Merrick and Bellmore tend to be more Jewish, and much more D.

East- Central Nassau- Plainview- Jericho- Syosset-  Primarily upper middle class.  Large Jewish population, growing Asian population.  Tends to be fiscally moderate and socially liberal.  Democratic.

Central Nassau-  Large Minority population, tends to be very heavily D.  Hempstead/ Uniondale/ Freeport, erc.  Primarily working class, some middle class, primarily African American and HispaniNW Nassau-  Great Neck/ Roslyn, etc.  Heavily Jewish and Asian.  Upper middle class to down right uber wealthy and liberal.   Mos of it is heavily D   However, northern sections of Great Neck and Kings Point has a growing Orthodox population and heavily Persian Jewish as well.  Turned sharply Republican after 9/11.


SW Nassau-  Lean D mix of areas.  Some tend to be quite diverse such as middle class Valley Stream which is fairly Democratic.  Some more Republican areas such as Franklin Square.  Also have the heavily Jewish five towns region, which leans D as a whole, but Lawrence is uber-R with a Orthodox population.


Norh East and North Central Nassau-  Part of the Gold Coast, similar to NW Nassau as it tends to be very wealthy, but far less Jewish and Asian.  Not religious, but still heavily Republican.  Garden City which is in western Nassau tends to fit in this category as well, but slightly more religious.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What Network will you watch Election Night? on: October 27, 2014, 09:59:15 am
Won't be home till 10 or so, so will miss a bunch, but likely CNN
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Pick Em, Week 8 on: October 26, 2014, 11:37:41 am
Ahh crap, forgot to pick this, thought I did this Thursday at work, must have not hit post   Would have picked Denver and Det  GRRR

SUN, OCT 26  

St. Louis at Kansas City  
Houston at Tennessee  
Minnesota at Tampa Bay  
Seattle at Carolina  
Baltimore at Cincinnati  
Miami at Jacksonville  
Chicago at New England  
Buffalo
at NY Jets  
Philadelphia at Arizona
Oakland at Cleveland  
Indianapolis
at Pittsburgh  
Green Bay at New Orleans  

MON, OCT 27  
Washington a Dallas  



Tiebreaker- Total Score  St Louis at KC-44

19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 24, 2014, 04:29:05 pm
I love how Bushie "checks on things" constantly. Like it's going to run away. Remember when he moved home from Utah to "check on his house" daily and never actually did it?

Wait wasn't there some bang fest in his house?
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 24, 2014, 04:16:54 pm
Terminating the lease might not be a bad idea. His credit rating is terrible anyway.

I wonder what reads worse, his credit rating or his resume
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NFL Pick a Winner Week #8 on: October 23, 2014, 10:38:38 am
Bills
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 23, 2014, 12:03:13 am
If you're ever, ever, ever going to pull yourself out of this seemingly endless cycle, you'll need to actually follow through toward your vision. Based on your work performance, I suspect that your actual execution on the job is more like the type of person who hopes to hide in the workplace and hope the boss never notices you, rather than someone who is actually interested in building a career.

You ought to try something very simple in order to start making progress. This is an old story about (I believe) Andrew Carnegie. Each night before you go to bed, take a 3x5 notecard and write the five most important things that you can do the next day, and rank them in order of importance.

My guess is that this list would never include "Watching four football games" or "Eat at Braums." The list should be meaningful and important things that help you build toward your vision. Make the first (as an example):

1. Spend one hour doing AutoCADD training on Lynda.com
2. Take a 20-minute walk
3. Go to the grocery store and buy a week's worth of fruits and vegetables
4. Call and email contacts at CADD school to ask about potential connections for the job search
5. Research how to sublease your Tulsa apartment, in the event you land a job in OKC

At the beginning of each day, review your list and knock off the items one by one. Make sure these items build toward larger goals and, ultimately, your vision.

Requoted because I can tell already, we're back to usual -- quoting dates and meaningless activities like "staying with various family members," "seeing if the apartment is OK" and "shopping with Mom." Those aren't meaningful activities, Jeff. What are you going to do to start thriving instead of simply surviving?

He;s certainly the king of the mandane.  

I can't get over how they fit in several family dinners into one weekend.  

Unnecessary car trips to do things that could be done online or over the phone...constant dinners to "visit" with distant relatives or church acquaintances...taking multiple medications throughout the day...occasionally getting up to move around...

...Jeff's typical daily routine mirrors that of a 70 year-old woman.

My guess is that the constant listing is an attempt to look busy ... "Look at how much stuff I have to do!" ... when in reality, so much of it is unproductive or what most of us would consider "sidebar activities," like buying pants. I think we're in for another round of avoiding productivity or positive change and hoping to go unnoticed.

And Jeff, I don't know what government office will be open on Saturday, November 1, so you can vote. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think early voting is handled in a government office of some sort (it is in Kansas, anyway), and those people are even more clock-bound than you are.

From the Oklahoma Board of Elections

Quote
You can vote early at the County Election Board office in the county where you are registered to vote from 8 AM to 6 PM on Thursday and Friday before all elections.  For state and federal elections only, you also can vote early from 9 AM to 2 PM on Saturday before the election.



http://www.ok.gov/elections/Early_Voting.html
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 22, 2014, 11:30:22 pm
Btw, anyone else find it hard to respond to Bushie here in update without cursing?
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 22, 2014, 11:13:01 pm
what was Bushie wearing at his previous job if he didn't have enough business casual clothes to last more than three days?



WAAAAAYYYYYYYYY too small for Bushie
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 22, 2014, 11:11:29 pm
You are telling me that you dont own a pair of khakis or can't buy something off the rack.  You dont need a bloody tailor...

I've got 3 pair of slacks, I need one more to be comfortable.  I usually wear one pair twice depending on how dirty or sweaty I get.



Why the f*** do you need to go shopping with mommy?  You're THIRTY F***** TWO..

Secndly, FFS why the F*** do you need to have your pants hemmed??  If its a suit, ok I get it, but for Business Casaul? WTF??

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