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26  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: White House reportedly looking at potential replacements for Michael Flynn on: February 13, 2017, 10:55:59 pm
Flynn  just resigned
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: February 11, 2017, 11:04:22 am
Well, Nassau Republican party has always been in a league of its own. One would have thought that the Suozzi interlude would have taught them humility, though.

Perhaps Cuomo will appoint Suozzi to Mangano's vacancy.

Mangano would have been the strongest candidate for NY Governor in 2018 had this not come about.  The Nassau County GOP is, perhaps, the last old-time "bossed" political organization.

Mangano's trial has been set for early net year, chances are he isn't going to resign prior to then and his seat is up for in November so the chances of a vacancy are slim.  Not to mention, Suozzi probably wouldn't leave Congress to take the seat and the decision would not even  be Cuomo's.  It would be up to the Nassau County Legislature which currently has a 11-8 GOP advantage.


It also looks like there are more involved than the Mangano's and Venditto, a special Grand Jury has been put together to look into more corruption in the Town of Oyster Bay, looking at wiretaps, etc

http://longisland.news12.com/news/report-special-jury-probes-oyster-bay-corruption-case-1.13107566
28  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Are Irish Americans in New York City fiscally and social conservative? on: February 07, 2017, 12:10:52 am
Woodlawn is about as Irish as you can get.

Bayside as well. Travel around Bayside, it's Trump country.

Not because it's Irish though. Woodland is as democratic as you can get, and the republican there are probably Italians.

What? No. Woodlawn Heights (the Irish area of Woodlawn) is very Republican, the most Republican neighborhood in the Bronx (doesn't sound like it's saying much, but there are a few pockets of Republicanism even there), and has been for quite some time. On the other hand, most recent Irish immigrants there are not citizens and not eligible to vote, so you're talking more longer-term residents. The Italian presence in Woodlawn is minimal.

Agreed that Bayside is irrelevant to the discussion. It's not an Irish neighborhood. Woodlawn Heights is the only neighborhood in NYC that can validly be described as "Irish".
What brand of Republicanism? Irish(AOH) or American(GOP)?

A mix of both. But Bayside and Douglaston is Irish. The LIRR Douglaston station, has a lot of beautiful Irish pubs. It's definitely Trump country in some areas. De Blasio won some areas there against Republican Joe Lhota in 2013.

https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/numbers/clinton-trump-president-vice-president-every-neighborhood-map-election-results-voting-general-primary-nyc
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why NC Stopped Trending Democratic on: January 16, 2017, 11:23:02 am
Swung Republican in 2012 and 2016, but swinging and trending are two different things.  In swung less than the national average so actually trended Democratic in both 2012 and 2016 (albeit narrowly in 2016)
30  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How and when does New England go Republican? on: January 16, 2017, 11:18:33 am
Don't know when. From far away Texas, NE looks pretty foreboding. I do find it interesting that GOP can win governorships there but presidential elections not so much

With the exception of Maine (which had a liberal 3rd party candidate), GOP candidates for Gov who run and win are considerably less conservative than any Republican who can win a Presidential nomination.
31  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Orange County, CA and Elliot County, KY on: January 14, 2017, 02:23:15 pm
Orange County has large and growing Hispanic and Asian populations and whites tend to be well educated, Elliot County is almost all white with low education levels.  The end
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: January 09, 2017, 11:51:56 pm
hopefully we get this crook and his ilk out of my county's control of government come end of this year. Believe the only Dems to enter so far are a state assemblymen, county legislator, local city councilman, and a "faux" Democrat county comptroller running. Pretty uninspiring if you ask me tbh.

I would have liked to see Abrahams  or Kaiman run or perhaps Haber again (though doubt he would right after running for State Senate), but it is still early more could jump in.  I think the Dem candidates are generally solid (and I have always liked Lavine), but it is a bit premature to really gauge the field until we know if anyone else is running or not and how they really start the campaign.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: January 09, 2017, 11:35:59 pm
John Venditto may have cost his son his Senate seat. Democrat John Brooks beat his opponent, Michael Venditto, the son of John. The Nassau County GOP needs to have some shaking up.

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/john-venditto-s-arrest-may-hurt-his-son-s-race-for-state-senate-1.12482497

Think Kaminsky will try to get his seat back?

Kaminsky won...

Didn't him winning the earlier special but Dems one seat away from flipping the chamber? How does GOP+Felder still have control without IDC if Venditto lost, then?

The IDC is still there and now has 7 members
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: January 09, 2017, 11:19:24 pm
John Venditto may have cost his son his Senate seat. Democrat John Brooks beat his opponent, Michael Venditto, the son of John. The Nassau County GOP needs to have some shaking up.

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/john-venditto-s-arrest-may-hurt-his-son-s-race-for-state-senate-1.12482497

There is no question it cost him the seat.  There were a bunch of State Senate seats thought to be competitive on Long Island, some of them were, others wound up not being that competitive, but this was on no one's radar until the indictments.  Michel Venditto's career got started as a result of who is father was and he lost because o who is father was.
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: January 09, 2017, 11:10:54 pm
John Venditto may have cost his son his Senate seat. Democrat John Brooks beat his opponent, Michael Venditto, the son of John. The Nassau County GOP needs to have some shaking up.

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/john-venditto-s-arrest-may-hurt-his-son-s-race-for-state-senate-1.12482497

Think Kaminsky will try to get his seat back?

Kaminsky won...
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: January 09, 2017, 07:58:29 pm
Might be too early for this, but with Mangano likely gone soon, a Tom Suozzi comeback, maybe?

As KingSweeden pointed out, Suozzi is in congress.    Steve Israel just retired, Suozzi ran for his old seat and won. 

The Oyster Bay town Attorney resigned today as well, so this is likely far from over.
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: January 05, 2017, 12:23:34 am
Venditto just resigned, Mangano remains in office
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ridiculous media bias in calling states for Trump on: December 19, 2016, 08:03:11 pm
After what happened in 2000, it isn't shocking that networks are more conservative with the states they call, but no it isn't bias.

In 2008, Obama won Indiana by a slightly larger margin than Trump won WI, & PA,  IN wasn't called until 2:15 AM.  North Carolina (which was slightly closer than Trump's pa & MI margin) wasn't called until two days after,  NE-2 was three days after,  Missouri's call (the closest state in 2008) wasn't until almost two weeks later.

Now of course the election was called sooner itself, because Obama already had the EV's from other states, this election was called later because the states that put Trump over the top EV wise were so close. 

 Considering Trump won those states by .72% and .77% (as per the #'s on Atlas currently) it isn't much of a surprise that both states took awhile to be called, and it seems to match past history with states about as close when those were called.

39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: N.Y.C. Mayor 2017: Giuliani vs. De Blasio? on: December 15, 2016, 01:32:14 pm
Rudy would win Staten  Island in a landslide, and would get destroyed everywhere else

He'd overperform in Queens. Forest Hills, Middle Village, Jamaica Estates, Rego Park would go his way. Homelessness is a big issue in these areas because De Blasio wants to allow hotels to become some homeless shelters in these areas.




Ovetperform and win are two very different things....
40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Strongest Dem swings outside of Utah and Idaho on: December 14, 2016, 11:42:17 pm
I'm honestly surprised that Norfolk County, MA (not sure if OP is talking about the town or the county) did such a hardline swing for Clinton, because almost everyone I know is a Trump supporter at the very least can't stand Hillary Clinton around here.

Considering it is basically tied with Middlesex (which also swung fairly strongly towards Clinton) for the highest levels of education in the state, it isn't surprising.  Most of the counties (though not all) on the list are also pretty much in line with some of the highest educated counties in the country.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Illinois and Kansas swinging to Clinton vs. Obama 2012 just feels so wrong. on: December 12, 2016, 12:12:36 pm
Kansas Republicans have plenty of problems which likely helped swing the state.

In Illinois, the bulk of the seing was due to suburban Chicago.  Clinton and Obama are pretty close as candidates go for appealing to well educated suburbanites.  Trump on other hand is considerably worse at appealing to well educated suburbanites than Romney.
 
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: N.Y.C. Mayor 2017: Giuliani vs. De Blasio? on: December 10, 2016, 02:06:32 pm
Rudy would win Staten  Island in a landslide, and would get destroyed everywhere else
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: December 06, 2016, 11:47:02 pm
Westchester's also a bit less white than LI, right? Also, it has more densely populated inner suburbs I think.

Westchester is a bit less whit.  The population density of the inner suburbs are similar, and Nassau has a little more than double the density Westchester does.
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's largest raw margins on: December 04, 2016, 01:42:32 pm
I was a bit taken aback (though I shouldn't have been) by Trump's raw margin in York County, PA--enough, in fact, to give him the whole state at this point.

So I was curious as to where Trump racked up similarly large vote margins in other counties.  In other words, roughly, where are the densest concentration of Trump supporters?  These are mainly going to be big suburban counties that went heavy for Trump.

CountyNearest CityTrump Margin
York, PAYork60004
Collin, TXDallas60390
Brevard, FLTitusville62169
St. Tammany, LA   New Orleans63198
Waukesha, WIMilwaukee63321
Lee, FLFort Myers66643
El Paso, COColorado Springs   71218
Ocean, NJn/a91929
Montgomery, TXHouston104479

The margins in York & Waukesha are enough to account for Trump's entire margins in those states.  The largest-margin county in Michigan (Macomb, in the Detroit suburbs, with a margin of 48,348) is obviously enough to flip that state as well.  Lee & Brevard together would flip Florida.

Utah, UT gets an honorable mention for a 73,600 vote margin between Trump and Clinton, though only a 41,650 margin between Trump and McMullin.

Note that of these, Montgomery, Collin, Waukesha, and St Tammany (the actual suburban commuter counties) actually did swing to Clinton, while the rest swung to Trump.

[Also, what's up with Polk County, OR?]

Looks like Polk is just a mistake on Dave's map
45  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: December 04, 2016, 12:53:49 pm
This seems to just be following a trend that's been happening over the last 10 years or so.  Inner cities going even more overwhelmingly democratic and the inner suburbs going democratic, the outer suburbs going republican and the rural areas going very republican.  Basically the further you get out from a city the more republican it gets.  If it's a big city like New York or DC it takes longer to reach the republican ring around the city.  If it's a small city like Pittsburgh the republican ring is closeby.
Nassau and Westchester both border on NYC. So, in this particular case, your explanation does not apply.
Westchester borders the Bronx, Nassau borders Queens.

There is no equivalent to Yonkers in Nassau.

Nassau County has a local/national dichotomy.  It is Democratic in national elections, but it has a strong local GOP that was the one of the last "boss-driven" organization in NY. 

Suffolk County is more Democratic on the local level, but less Democratic in state and national elections.


Both counties were traditionally Republican on the local level until the late 90's, though Democrats were generally strong in Long Beach, Glen Cove, Town of North Hempstead, Huntington and Babylon.

Democrats actually made the local gains in Nassau in the late 90's after the county's finances were in complete shambles.  They took the Legislature in 99, and Suozzi won CE by 30 points in 01.  They pretty much kept strong locally though much of the 2000's, though the Town of Hempatead and Oyster Bay remained very strong for the GOP.  Suffolk then hadd its move Democratic during the 2000's as wel.

The main difference is Suffolk generally stayed Democratic locally, while the GOP took back the CE in 09 (very narrowly) and then the legislature as well.  A bit of gerrymandering made taking back the legislature very difficult for the Democrats.  Now with the GOP back solidly in control, Nassau's finances are in the toilet once again, add in Mangano and Venditto's indictments and 2017 is shaping up to be a rough year for the Nassau GOP.
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: December 03, 2016, 12:18:23 pm
So traditional patterns basically held up.  What were the swings from Obama/Romney like?

Generally the upper middle class to wealthy areas swung to Clinton, the more working class mostly white areas swung to Trump  Some precincts swung 20-30 points either way.  Sands Point precinct went to Romney by less than 1 point, went to Clinton by 31.  Some Garden City precincts, although still strong for Trump, swung by 20 points.  A Mastic Beach precinct won by Obama by 18, was won by Trump by 22.  A precinct won by Obama by 5 in Shirley, was won by Trump by 29.  Another one won by Obama by 8 was won by Trump by 33.  There were a bunch of other precincts in that area which had very hard swings.

Found the other link I was looking for, you can pull up both 2016 and 2012

http://projects.newsday.com/long-island/politics/how-long-island-voted/

47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NY State Senate 31-31 with the 8th still undecided between Venditto and Brooks on: November 30, 2016, 07:14:49 pm
Brooks up by 41,  1,100 objections have been filed more than 2/3 by Republicans.


http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/john-brooks-holds-41-vote-lead-in-8th-senate-district-race-1.12691626
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: November 28, 2016, 10:18:19 pm
LI map by Precinct

http://politics.newsday.com/election-results-map/?office1=105&office2=67&
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 21, 2016, 11:44:07 pm
Scary...

Trump 65.5%   526
Clinton 30.9%  248
Johnson 2.4% 19
Stein 1.2%  10
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Westchester and Nassau on: November 21, 2016, 10:51:32 pm
Being from Nassau County originally, it's changed a lot over the years.  It's not nearly as white as it used to be, but Hillary's luster did wear off a bit over the years.  Suffolk was the far bigger swing.  The biggest race in Nassau this year was the House race, the first time in a while it was a real horse race.

Where in Nassau were you from?


Suffolk did swing considerably more, which tends to make sense considering it has more of a white working class population than Nassau.  I can't pull it up now, but Newsday had a precinct map up, and it did seem like Mastic & Shirley had some of the strongest trump swings.
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