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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 31, 2016, 10:40:25 pm
IIRC early voting was NOT available in any Florida counties on the Sunday before Election Day in 2012, this year it isn't available in the entire state, but is in pretty much all the heavily populated counties
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 26, 2016, 10:58:43 pm
What is the best link to see the N.C data breakout?   

The only thing I see on the B.O.E website links to a massive excel file
28  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 24, 2016, 08:40:16 pm

Travis might be interesting.....
29  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans ahead in early voting in Florida on: October 24, 2016, 06:35:15 pm
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

Are you dense or something? It's all relative. That's like saying IA is solid D because they're ahead in raw early vote, even though they're underperforming 2012.

I was led to believe that this was an improvement from 2012.


That also included early in person voting, which began today in most counties in Florida those #'s aren't out yet.  Early in person voting started slightly later in Florida in 2012, but the day early voting began the GOP had a 66k absentee lead in returned ballot (about 5%), this year it is 2%.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-16m-floridians-having-voted-dems-cut-gop-absentee-vote-lead-in-half-in-1st-early-vote-day.html
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: October 21, 2016, 06:13:37 pm
I think this will hurt Venditto's Senate re-election chances and will boost Kaminsky big time. Wouldn't be surprised to see freak Assembly seat upset either. Mangano is toast. Kate Murray 2017? Lol

If Mangano decides to resign or is in a jail cell prior to his term ending the Nassau Leg (which is Republican) would appoint a replacement until the end of the term (the seat is up next year).  Murray is one of the names floated around, the other is State Sen. Martins assuming his likely loss to Suozzi in the 2nd Congressional District.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: October 21, 2016, 06:11:13 pm
It will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the State Senate.  There are a couple seats thought to be in play and Michael Venditto (John's son) is a State Senator as well.

If that's the case, could that hurt the younger Venditto's political future. I see Venditto as a future Senator/Governor. Young, fresh, moderate Republican.

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/john-venditto-s-arrest-may-hurt-his-son-s-race-for-state-senate-1.12482497

Venditto and moderate do not belong in the same sentence, for both father and son.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: October 20, 2016, 10:11:42 pm
It will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the State Senate.  There are a couple seats thought to be in play and Michael Venditto (John's son) is a State Senator as well.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Nassau County Exec Ed Mangano & Oyster Bay Sup John Venditto arrested on: October 20, 2016, 07:28:54 am
My County exec, his wife and Town Supervisor were all just arrested on Federal Corruption charges.

Quote
Oyster Bay Town Supervisor John Venditto has been arrested by federal investigators in connection with a Nassau County corruption sting, a source close to the case says.
Venditto's arrest on Thursday morning comes as Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano and his wife surrendered to federal agents on corruption-related matters.

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/NY-Oyster-Bay-Supervisor-John-Venditto-Arrested-Corruption-Case-Mangano-397724081.html
34  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +12/12 (PA), Clinton +3/+2 (FL) on: October 09, 2016, 12:55:24 pm
i am missing something or is the current trend in PA not quite....destructive for republicans?

the west gets redder and redder but the easter bluer and the east is growing much more.


The whole PA is trending GOP has been a bunch of nonsense
35  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win PA and why? on: October 09, 2016, 10:22:07 am
Clinton easily.  The Philly suburbs were already a disaster for Trump and this certainly will make it worse.  Not enough of votes elsewhere for Trump to make it up or even get close.
36  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump caught on hot mic having lewd conversation about women on: October 07, 2016, 06:54:59 pm
Out of all things Trump has said this is the most benign thing. Two guys having a chat how they would like to bang some chick. Also Donald being Donald brags a little. NO BIG DEAL! But I have no doubt that this will sink Trump the most. Not muslims comments, not "mexican thing", this will probably sink him because media will have a field day. And that tells you something about usa elections.

How is grabbing a woman by the p**** and bragging that you could get away with it since you are rich benign?
37  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When, if ever, will NC vote to the left of PA? on: September 28, 2016, 11:07:44 pm
The whole premise is a bit flawed considering that PA isn't actually trending Republican.  PA will basically continue to stay where it is (though pockets of the state will shift) as a couple points more Democratic than the nation.  NC will continue a steady (though not hard) shift towards the Democrats and will probably take about 3 election cycles to get there
38  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 25, 2016, 09:26:55 pm
Trump is probably doing well in Garden City, Country Life Press, etc.

He likely will, but he likely doesn't do as well as most Republicans have there.
39  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way) on: September 24, 2016, 09:35:30 am
Sienna/Newssday have had an odd track record.  Sometimes solid Nassau 2013 CE race, sometimes awful, Nassau 09 CE race.

2012 had Romney up slightly over Obama during the homestretch

http://www.newsday.com/elections/mitt-romney-holds-slight-edge-over-barack-obama-among-li-voters-1.4162143

40  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Georgia 1992 on: September 12, 2016, 10:31:38 pm
Yeah, flawed exit polls + Democratic media bias. They also called NH for Clinton at poll closing time, and it was very close as well. Not to mention that they projected Democrat Wyche Fowler as the winner in the GA Senate race (Fowler later lost to Republican Paul Coverdell in the runoff).


Yeah, Clinton ended up winning NH by just 1 point (huge shift from 1988 when Bush won it by 20 points; his second best state after Utah).  The liberal media is so dishonest that it's ridiculous.  Bush would have comfortably won Florida in 2000 if they did not prematurely call it for Gore.  The heavily republican panhandle is in central time zone, and lot of Bush voters stayed home when they heard that Gore had already won it.


The call was made about 10 minutes before the polls in the Central Time Zone closed....
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls? on: September 07, 2016, 10:13:03 pm
Not excited, but not worried or nervous either, and certainly not after Trump's debacle tonight.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why is Peter King (NY-2) so safe? on: September 04, 2016, 11:54:03 pm
I live in the Nassau portion of the district.

He probably would have trouble if the 90's version of his district still existed.   2000's redistricting came along with Incumbent protection for both King & Israel turning two potentially competitive swing districts into two districts, with neither one that competitive.  Suozzi could have had in 06 if he ran, but had bigger thoughts at the time.  Ironically Suozzi is now running for Israel's open seat.

The district has changed quite a bit over the years, in the 90's the district was entirely Nassau based, in the 2000's it did take a portion of SW Suffolk, now the district is primarily Suffolk based (with a much larger chunk of SW Suffolk) with only a portion of the Nassau portion of the district (SE Nassau). 


The last redistricting did make the district a bit more Democratic and the district's minority population is a bit higher as well, but also moved Suozzi (who probably still would be the strongest challenger) out of the district.   The Town of Babylon does have a solid Democratic bench, but none of them have seemed to be interested in the job or the challenge.
43  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-Emerson: Clinton +1 on: September 02, 2016, 06:33:35 pm
At this rate, I think it makes a lot more sense to agree that things have tightened significantly than to find reasons to doubt every poll.

It may be true that this poll is questionable at best. But it's not a total fabrication. Give Clinton a few extra points and the race is still closer than it should be, and certainly too close for comfort.
This.
Really, please stop to find every possible justification. The race is tightening. Clinton is still ahead, but it's more close that one month ago.

The race has tightened a bit, however bad landline only polls with terrible methodology are still bad landline only polls with terrible methodology.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict the PA Senate race on: August 22, 2016, 09:55:58 pm
McGinty by 3 or 4. Toomey runs several points better than Trump, but Trump drags him down in the Philly suburbs (which was already going to be a problem for Toomey) and the margins there are just too much to overcome.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can Darryl Glenn win a senate seat in CO? on: August 22, 2016, 09:52:45 pm
Rapidly trending Democratic state + Presidential year + horrid GOP candidate at top of the ticket for the state + bad candidate running a bad campaign = No not a shot
46  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump win CT? on: August 22, 2016, 09:19:06 pm
And why or why not?
It's possible, but not likely. I am sure Q will poll its home state at some point.

Roll Eyes
Roll your eyes at me all you want, but the last Q poll from June had it at -7/-5, which puts CT in "Lean D" territory. A win for Trump in that scenario is possible, but unlikely unless there's a uniform shift towards Trump.

Plus, if you have all of this movement towards Hillary in states like Texas and South Carolina, as you red avatars claim, and the national numbers basically are at Obama 2012 territory, where does the other Trump vote logically come from? The Northeast where there are a lot of blue collar Catholics.

While Connecticut is an unlikely get, it's not an impossible one for the Trump campaign. There's a difference. The question posed by the OP was can Trump win CT, not will he.  Can he win it? Sure in a perfect storm scenario. Will he win it? Probably not.

...You actually think CT is lean D?
I don't think when it comes to ratings like that. I look at data.

The RCP Average is +7.5 (2-way)/+5 (4-way) academically, that makes it lean D.

Lean D is a Democrat lead between 5 and 10 points. Obviously, we need new data points.

As I have stated numerous times on this thread the question is whether Trump can win Connecticut. He can. There is a path to victory. However, it's unlikely that he wins the state. That's a distinction with a difference.

What is Trump's path of victory in CT??   He really has none.  Trump's base is white working class voters without a college education.  That base really doesn't exist in CT, especially where the people are.  4th highest bachelor's degree % in the nation, 3rd highest advanced degrees.
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Gravis Marketing: Trump+1, Clinton+1 on: August 21, 2016, 11:22:36 pm
Great poll. It's actually tied, won't be the case on election day though. Probably will still be close.

If Trump is tied in a North Carolina poll that has a 10% African American electorate...
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump win CT? on: August 21, 2016, 11:14:46 pm
Not sure if you are trolling, but I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

No Republican can win a Presidential race in CT period.  Certain Republicans can win statewide, but it would be very difficult.  They would also need to do very well with college educated middle to upper middle class voters.  This is not Trump's strong suit.  In fact Trump will probably do considerably worse than any Republican Presidential candidate in recent history with this group.
49  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How and where does Trump crack the blue wall? on: August 21, 2016, 01:26:47 pm
Also, I don't think that NH counts as part of the blue wall, does it? I thought the blue wall comprises the states that have voted Democratic in every election since 1992.

NH in 2000 was a fluke, just like Clinton winning AZ in 1996 or Obama winning IN in 2008 was a fluke.

Assuming WI doesn't tighten significantly, he probably has to win PA, because he has zero chance of winning NH.

And zero chance of winning WI so yea.

So then PA is the do or die state for him. Case closed Tongue

That's been the case for...forever.

You know Republicans are in trouble when their chances depend on Pennsylvania.

Exactly and I do not see anyway possible that he wins PA.  Republicans no longer need to win suburban Philly to win the state, but they at least need to be competitive there and Trump will absolutely get demolished there.
50  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How and where does Trump crack the blue wall? on: August 21, 2016, 01:16:31 pm
PA?  LMAO
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