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26  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Red New England? on: April 12, 2014, 12:20:16 pm
Until the GOP drops the religious right, its gone.
27  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Huckabee's ceiling against Clinton in the Electoral College? on: April 12, 2014, 12:17:07 pm
The ceiling implies that Huckabee avoids serious gaffes, and runs a good campaign in a favorable environment.

If so he'll do as well as any Republican could (with the exception of Christie, who in a best case scenario, could take New Jersey).

In 2012, 85% of voters agreed with the sentiment that Obama cared more about people like them than Romney did. Huckabee could do much better in that category. I could see him articulating a positive vision of government, generally an appealing message.



The problem with Huckabee is that he's a high risk type. He could win the nomination without demonstrating General Election strength. He's a skilled enough politician (and likely to be surrounded by enough minders) that he should be able to avoid Akin style gaffes. But a nomination could still be a disaster. Electorally, his floor is probably McCain in 2008. But he could also hinder the party in other races. It could hurt the House races, to say nothing of Republican incumbents running for Senate in Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire, especially if any of those become open seats.

This is way past absurd.  Huckabee is completely unelectable.  His ceiling is Romney 2012 and N.C might be pushing it. 
28  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your governors during your lifetime on: April 11, 2014, 09:38:04 pm

Carey 82
Cuomo 83-94
Pataki 95-06
Spitzer 07-08
Patterson  08-10
Cuomo 11- Present
29  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: A debate on Car Control on: April 10, 2014, 12:15:54 pm
I think we should have safety measures for cars, airplanes and guns that are warranted in each case.  There are a number of factors you would consider in that calculation including the number of people killed by that weapon or vehicle.  It ends up being a cost-benefit analysis between the cost of the safety measure and the reduced risk of harm.  

What I take issue with is the argument that we need to regulate everything with a potential to kill in the same manner.  We don't heavily regulate knives and knives kill people, therefore we shouldn't regulate guns.  That's just silly.  By that logic, we don't regulate fists and you can punch someone to death, therefore, nuclear weapons should be legal for private citizens.
But we don't regulate cars at all for their owners' propensity to commit a violent act with their cars.

The issue here is not, "We don't heavily regulate __X__, so we shouldn't regulate guns."  The issue should be, "Why should we regulate guns?"  Where is the logic in the regulation of guns?  There has to be a reason for the regulation that starts somewhere broad and works its way into the narrow universe of guns.  If you don't do that, your regulations are admittedly arbitrary.

So what is the rationale for regulating guns, and what is your logic chain that shows that your proposed regulation isn't arbitrary?


Hmm, perhaps because the PURPOSE of a gun is to kill........

So are swords, but we don't regulate them, and they are inherently dangerous and designed to kill.  So that can't be the basis for why we have gun regulation.  There has to be something more than just being inherently dangerous with the purpose of design to kill.  You're still working backwards from your conclusion and attempting to justify it.

How many swords are actually used to kill someone?  How many guns are used to kill someone?   FTR, I'm not saying we should ban guns, but they need to be more regulated.  To make a comparison between something designed to kill and something not designed to kill is asinine.  To make a comparison between something that very rarely used to kill to something that is used to kill quite often is asinine.
30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senator Ron Johnson knew since 2011 about Assemblyman Kramer's Sexual Assault on: April 10, 2014, 12:00:48 pm
Confidentiality is one thing, but when a crime has allegedly been committed, that makes confidentiality less of a valid issue. Kramer moving up in the leadership could have given him more authority to commit crime unchecked, as more authority can equal the ability to shut people up. When Kramer moved up, that's when Johnson should have had a talk with the leadership.

I'd argue that he should've made that appeal to the alleged victim first.  If, after making that plea, she still wanted him to stay quiet, I still think there's an ethical problem with violating her wishes.

Isn't there an ethical problem with knowing someone committed a Sexual Assault and not alerting the Authorities??  This wasn't some minor crime that Johnson stayed quiet about.   

We don't even know who wanted who to stay quiet first, but even assuming that she was the one who wanted to stay quiet, when its something like sexual assault and you know about it, you have an ethical responsibility to do something about it. 

Johnson didn't know someone had committed a sexual assault; he knew someone had allegedly committed a sexual assault.

Do you support mandatory arrest laws in domestic violence instances?

Yes, someone that beats the crap out of their wife/ girlfriend, etc needs to be stopped asap, regardless of whether or not wants to press charges.  Same for those who rape, sexually assault someone.
31  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: A debate on Car Control on: April 10, 2014, 07:37:27 am
I think we should have safety measures for cars, airplanes and guns that are warranted in each case.  There are a number of factors you would consider in that calculation including the number of people killed by that weapon or vehicle.  It ends up being a cost-benefit analysis between the cost of the safety measure and the reduced risk of harm.  

What I take issue with is the argument that we need to regulate everything with a potential to kill in the same manner.  We don't heavily regulate knives and knives kill people, therefore we shouldn't regulate guns.  That's just silly.  By that logic, we don't regulate fists and you can punch someone to death, therefore, nuclear weapons should be legal for private citizens.
But we don't regulate cars at all for their owners' propensity to commit a violent act with their cars.

The issue here is not, "We don't heavily regulate __X__, so we shouldn't regulate guns."  The issue should be, "Why should we regulate guns?"  Where is the logic in the regulation of guns?  There has to be a reason for the regulation that starts somewhere broad and works its way into the narrow universe of guns.  If you don't do that, your regulations are admittedly arbitrary.

So what is the rationale for regulating guns, and what is your logic chain that shows that your proposed regulation isn't arbitrary?


Hmm, perhaps because the PURPOSE of a gun is to kill........
32  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: if youre looking for a job.... on: April 09, 2014, 10:18:06 am
Depends what you are doing and where you are.  When I was out of work there were many days I was putting in 25+ applications.  However, looking for a finance job in NY metro area (primarily looked in NYC and LI) is far different than looking for another type of job elsewhere in the country.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP (D) for MoveOn.org (D): Dems lead in FL, PA, GA, KS, ME on: April 09, 2014, 10:07:17 am
Dominating.

Not really: There's a chance these PPP polls (who are done for a left-wing outfit) are off by about 3-5 points in favour of the Dems.

See Jolly vs. Sink.

Considering it is a poll for Moveon rather than just something they are doing themselves I could buy the argument of questionign it, however being off in a Special Election Congresional race (which is notriously very difficult to poll) is not a reason to question it.
34  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senator Ron Johnson knew since 2011 about Assemblyman Kramer's Sexual Assault on: April 08, 2014, 11:38:27 pm
Confidentiality is one thing, but when a crime has allegedly been committed, that makes confidentiality less of a valid issue. Kramer moving up in the leadership could have given him more authority to commit crime unchecked, as more authority can equal the ability to shut people up. When Kramer moved up, that's when Johnson should have had a talk with the leadership.

I'd argue that he should've made that appeal to the alleged victim first.  If, after making that plea, she still wanted him to stay quiet, I still think there's an ethical problem with violating her wishes.

Isn't there an ethical problem with knowing someone committed a Sexual Assault and not alerting the Authorities??  This wasn't some minor crime that Johnson stayed quiet about.   

We don't even know who wanted who to stay quiet first, but even assuming that she was the one who wanted to stay quiet, when its something like sexual assault and you know about it, you have an ethical responsibility to do something about it. 
35  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: THE NEW YORK RANGERS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!!! on: April 08, 2014, 01:22:14 pm
And the first round exit door is over there ------>

^^^^^^^
36  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senator Ron Johnson knew since 2011 about Assemblyman Kramer's Sexual Assault on: April 07, 2014, 04:37:59 pm
It seems like a lot of people are passing judgment on Johnson without knowing all of the facts.  If it is true that the alleged victim asked Johnson to stay quiet about the assault, then I see nothing wrong with what he did.  If he influenced her to keep quiet, I certainly would be on the opposite side of the fence, but if she independently chose to not press charges and did not want the incident gaining public attention, that's her choice, and I think Johnson should have honored that.

Until proven, an allegation is simply an allegation, and for some reason, when it comes to sexual assaults, Americans tend to throw due process out the window and vilify the accused before he has had his day in court.

Certainly if I were Johnson, I would have encouraged her to go to the police, and he may have done that; the article doesn't discuss that.

But in not going to the police upon the alleged request of the victim, I don't think Johnson did anything wrong.  On the contrary, if I were the victim and someone had taken this public against my wishes, I'd be pretty pissed.

Yes, I do think it is important to know if she asked him to be quiet or not, but if a friend of yours, someone who worked for you, etc was sexually assaulted would you just say quiet about it or would you go to the police?
37  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are you listening to right now? II on: April 06, 2014, 10:57:21 pm
Still on the UMF kick

Martin Garrix's Ultra 2014 set
38  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: And now Mississippi has passed Religious Freedom Protection Bill on: April 06, 2014, 04:19:18 pm
How is this a sign of the religious right dying?

I wouldn't say they are dying, but losing influence.  There are exceptions in hellhole states like Mississippi.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Senator Ron Johnson knew since 2011 about Assemblyman Kramer's Sexual Assault on: April 05, 2014, 10:26:54 pm
The # 2 in the Wisconsin Assembly was recently charged with two felonies regarding a Seual Assault against a woman in 2011.  The woman was a staffer to Ron Johnson, and did not go to police until other sexual misconduct allegations against Kramer came to light.  She did however tell Johnson, his aide andd the Waukesha GOP chair in 2011.

Quote

Madison U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, his chief of staff and a Waukesha County GOP official were all told three years ago of allegations that a then-aide to the senator had been sexually assaulted by state Rep. Bill Kramer, but none of them took the matter to the police or Assembly leaders.

The woman told her supervisor in Johnson's office and a number of other people, but decided at the time to have her attorney send a letter to Kramer rather than go to the police, records show. Last month nearly three years after the alleged assault outside a Muskego bar the woman learned of Kramer's alleged mistreatment of other women and filed a complaint with Muskego police that has resulted in two felony charges of second-degree sexual assault.

In the meantime, Kramer's Assembly colleagues elected him last fall to the job of majority leader, the No. 2 position in that house. Before that vote, some Republicans in the Assembly who opposed Kramer's bid raised concerns about his behavior.

But neither Johnson nor anyone from his office contacted Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester), who has led that body since January 2013, or Jeff Fitzgerald, who served as speaker at the time of the alleged 2011 assault.



Read more from Journal Sentinel
 http://www.jsonline.com/news/ron-johnson-did-not-tell-police-of-assault-allegations-three-years-ago-b99240536z1-253954591.html#ixzz2y4VxHFUi
40  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: And now Mississippi has passed Religious Freedom Protection Bill on: April 04, 2014, 11:39:16 am
Joke State
41  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Rank your sports teams by how much you care about them on: April 03, 2014, 03:51:21 pm
1.  New York Giants
2.  New York Yankees
3.  New York Islanders
Gap
4.  Brooklyn Nets
42  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are you listening to right now? II on: April 02, 2014, 11:16:53 pm
Tiesto's set from Ultra
43  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are you listening to right now? II on: April 01, 2014, 11:02:45 pm
Ultra Music Festival 2014 Hardwell's set
44  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: GOP: your dreams of recapturing Virginia are just that on: March 31, 2014, 06:55:04 pm

The fact that Republicans haven't won a senate seat since Macaca-gate should tell Republican posters like the one who said "Democrats have only won Virginia twice" something...

Haven't there only been like 2 Senate elections since, both in Presidential election years? I remember Mark Warner and Obama winning in 2008 and Tim Kaine and Obama winning in 2012. And if memory serves the GOP ran joke, scandal-tainted candidates in both elections. I don't really see how throwing in the Senate helps you avoid the small sample size critique. I mean, between 2008 and 2012, the North Carolina GOP newly gained: control of the state legislature, a supermajority in the state legislature,  the governor's mansion, a majority of Congressional seats, and the electoral college votes for President. Looking at that sample size I predict North Carolina will never ever ever ever never go Democrat again, because the 4 year window I chose to look at supports this theory.


Silly comparison.  First off the key reason why the GOP has the Congressional seats in N.C is gerrymandering.  Same for the state legislature Supermajority-  Gerrymandering.  The State Legislature is hated, as is the Governor.  The GOP Presidential candidate did win the state last time around, but compared to the national average the state still trended Democratic. 

The Democrats have won the last two Presidential races in Virginia, three of the last our Governor's races in the state, the last three Senate races in the state (and it will be a 4th as Warner will win in a cakewalk)

Longterm the Democrats are in FAR better shape in VA than the GOP is in NC.
45  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Do you own a portable cell phone charger? on: March 31, 2014, 10:49:10 am
No, although I do have a back up battery for my phone which I make sure to grab if I know I will be out for awhile.
46  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What does this map display? on: March 31, 2014, 10:46:56 am
But that doesn't really fit IMO with Tennessee/Kentucky.. I can't imagine Memphis being home to a smaller percentage of Tennesseans than Louisville to Kentuckians. And does Albuquerque really have such a relatively big population to all of New Mexico? And Atlanta such a relatively small? 

Atlanta proper is less than 5% of the population of Georgia, more than 90% of the metro area lives outside of the city
47  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Around what year did talk first start about the GOP demographic disaster? on: March 30, 2014, 09:18:57 pm
I feel like I started hearing this around 2004 or so...  But it really got attention around 2008.

I  would agree with this.  It didn't get much attention until 2008, but the signs were certainly there in 2004.
48  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Could the GOP's general problem be that the ave. American is getting poorer? on: March 30, 2014, 09:16:32 pm
No. Poor white people vote for Republicans with zeal. Compare the 2012 election results of the coal counties of Virginia (the poorest area of the state) with Fairfax county (the most affluent area of the state).
But the increasing minorities includes poor Hispanics and poor African Americans, so this wouldn't disprove the argument.

I'm not sure I agree with the assertion that there's a significant trend of Americans getting poorer. The Democratic comeback started prior to the Great Recession, and hasn't resulted in historically impressive numbers.

And wealthy Asians....
49  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are you listening to right now? II on: March 30, 2014, 01:06:29 pm
Ultra Music Fest on Sirius/XM
50  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Jets sign dog-killer Michael Vick, release team killer Mark Sanchez on: March 30, 2014, 01:14:58 am
...did you just say that Larry Fitzgerald isn't a capable receiver?

I don't even. Is this real life? What in the Christ is this?
Don't you need more than one in today's NFL?

Tell that to Tom Brady. He made David Givens look like one of the best draft steals in the league for a while.

Also, Michael Floyd? 1k receiving yards ain't nothing to f**k with. I'll go as far as to say that the Cardinals have better receivers than my Patriots.

The Cardinals and 30 other teams, lol. Seriously, as a proud Jets fan who had to watch the leagues worst receivers two years in a row, what teams would you not trade with? Jags and Rams are pretty bad too so maybe you wouldn't trade with them because of system reasons, but I would rather have Shorts or Austin than Amendola or Edelman

Amendola would have been as good as Welker if he played. Edelman is underrated as hell though (but not Shorts good, and soon won't be Austin good).




Not really, he is good, but he isn't Welker.  Not to mention if he played part.   Amendola is hurt even more than Vick
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