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December 07, 2016, 03:22:14 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Sarah Palin goes rogue on Trump; slams his Carrier deal as 'Crony Capitalism' on: December 03, 2016, 12:07:56 am
I actually agree with Sarah Palin.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did Michael Dukakis have a shot of winning in 1988? on: December 01, 2016, 11:07:25 pm
No. I think a more inspiring could have made it much closer, though.
3  General Discussion / History / Re: Obama's legacy same as Carter's? on: November 24, 2016, 12:52:53 pm
In the presidential cycle theory, I like to think of him as "Nixon done right."

In an overall historical sense, maybe Woodrow Wilson.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kanye West 2020 on: November 23, 2016, 06:27:37 pm
Axel Rose/Alec Baldwin 2020
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent on: November 23, 2016, 04:34:39 pm
In the past century, this has only happened four times (Hoover, Ford, Carter, H.W. Bush), and of those four, only one of those times (Carter) did the incumbent's party control the White House for no more than four years. Food for thought.

There's also never been four 2-term presidents in a row.
6  General Discussion / History / Re: US presidential electons where the party in power should've won/lost, but didn't on: November 18, 2016, 09:09:52 am
What are your criteria here for "should have won/lost"? Poll numbers? The status of the economy? It's hard to decide who should have won or lost something when we're all using different standards of what should make someone win.

Not polling, but the overall perception.
7  General Discussion / History / US presidential electons where the party in power should've won/lost, but didn't on: November 17, 2016, 06:47:54 pm
Should've lost: 1876


Should've won: 1960, 2000




They were controversial elections, too.



Any more?
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should the Democratic Party disavow identity politics? on: November 17, 2016, 02:41:56 pm
All politics is, to some extent, identity politics.

Agreed.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: President Trump vs. Sen. Kamala Harris on: November 17, 2016, 02:30:58 pm
this is about the time to remind everyone that Obama did better than Hillary in all of the areas we're supposedly yelling "identity politics" about.

Good post.
10  General Politics / Economics / Re: Will America have a recession, even if just a small tiny one, in next 8 years? on: November 16, 2016, 09:20:58 am
It will be severe, it will last for years, the new administration will be at fault, and the public opinion will blame Obama.

Doesn't the party in power always get the blame?

Not if it is led by a strong enough demagogue.

Trump is too unlikeable not to get the blame.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I'd say this election is most comparable to 1960 on: November 15, 2016, 06:34:18 pm
2000 was 1960.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I'd say this election is most comparable to 1960 on: November 15, 2016, 06:14:19 pm
I think think and hope it's 1976.
13  General Politics / Economics / Re: Will America have a recession, even if just a small tiny one, in next 8 years? on: November 15, 2016, 06:03:42 pm
It will be severe, it will last for years, the new administration will be at fault, and the public opinion will blame Obama.

Doesn't the party in power always get the blame?
14  General Discussion / History / Re: Obama's legacy same as Carter's? on: November 15, 2016, 03:33:42 pm
The comparison is weird.

Obama:

Furthered LGBT rights.

Obamacare

The Iran deal

The Paris deal

The Cuba deal

Two-term president

Decent to solid approval rating

Nixon:

Furthered integration (if in a self-serving and seedy way)

Universal Healthcare (which Ted Kennedy and other liberals turned down for not being liberal enough...how's that different from Republicans turning on their own system again?)

The China deal

SALT

Two-term president (in theory)

Decent to solid approval (until Watergate)

...You were saying?



I was talking about the Carter comparison.
15  General Discussion / History / Re: Obama's legacy same as Carter's? on: November 15, 2016, 11:44:00 am
The comparison is weird.

Obama:

Furthered LGBT rights.

Obamacare

The Iran deal

The Paris deal

The Cuba deal

Two-term president

Decent to solid approval rating
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Search for the next Obama on: November 15, 2016, 10:44:19 am
Under the right circumstances, I think Warren could win in 2020.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Trump presidency predictions on: November 15, 2016, 10:38:03 am
I think he'll be Jimmy Carter with Richard Nixon's personality.

What do you guys think?
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Slate: The electoral college is an instrument of white supremacy-and sexism on: November 15, 2016, 09:28:14 am
Racism and sexism is not the main reason why democrats lost the electoral college, but it's part of it.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Which presidential cyclical theory do you like better? on: November 10, 2016, 02:35:20 pm
I wonder if Trump will be Jimmy Carter? A political outsider who doesn't get along with his party. A wacky version of Carter anyway.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Final Mellman Group national poll: Clinton +4 on: November 08, 2016, 02:34:56 pm
They're moving in herds. They do move in herds.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / The first U.S. Presidential election you remember? on: November 08, 2016, 09:22:59 am
First memory: 1988

First time I paid real attention: 1992
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-CNU (final poll): Hillary+6 on: November 07, 2016, 02:42:29 pm
PSA: The Republican areas of VA always count first, so for the love of god do not start bedwetting based off the early returns.

I remember McCain being up like 7 in 2008 and was pretty surprised.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1 on: November 06, 2016, 08:58:46 am
Who knows. PPP said it's been within a point the last 4 times they've polled Ohio.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News - Clinton + 2 /Clinton + 1 on: November 04, 2016, 07:21:16 pm
Uh, guys, peak Comeygate would be the last days of October. First days of November is when the rebound is supposed to have started.

^^
Honestly the lies being posted here for self-reassurance are giving me second thoughts on all the other comments that I have taken at face value for the past week or two. She should still win easily, but if I was a Clinton fan, I'd finally just have a tiny ounce of fear. Very tiny. His chances have gone up from about 2% to 8-10%

I look at state polls and Obama's very slim average national lead going into election day 4 years ago.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:40:44 pm
Just a reminder that Obama's average lead in national polls was 0.7% right before election day.

Thank you.
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