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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will the winner in 2016 be a one-term president? on: August 10, 2015, 02:47:15 am
It's been said the recession ended in 2009, but didn't truly end until 2011. That's when unemployment started going down and jobs picked up, albeit slowly.

We're probably due for a one-termer, but it's hard to beat a sitting president They have to be really bad (Hoover/Carter) or have just enough things go against them (Bush 1).  Truman won because Dewey ran the worst kind of campaign.

If Hillary wins, a recession and slight party fatigue will make her a one-term president.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Name the next three U.S. Presidents on: August 08, 2015, 01:53:36 am
Hillary Rodham Clinton: 2017-2021
John Kasich: 2021-2029
Unknown democrat: 2029-2037
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is this the most progressive decade since the 1960's? on: August 02, 2015, 11:19:54 pm
Yes, but of course, not on the level of the 60's.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is it feasible for Jeb to beat Hillary? on: August 02, 2015, 10:58:46 pm
Far from an easy victory for Hillary, but I don't think Jeb can win unless another recession pops up.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Which President reelection looked the most Bleak after their first midterm on: August 02, 2015, 10:53:41 pm
I can't decide between Clinton and Reagan. Reagan had a huge recession going on. Clinton looked really weak, but the economy was good in 1994.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At what point will GOP donors be stunned that no one wants another Bush on: July 16, 2015, 05:12:02 pm
Jeb Bush is a pretty dull candidate, even without W's unpopularity.

Hillary will probably win. Unless another recession pops up.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016=1988 on: July 14, 2015, 08:16:59 pm
I'm more and more believing this will be like the 1988 election. Much closer, of course.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Obama be remembered in the top 10 of Presidents? on: July 05, 2015, 07:57:05 pm
His presidency is certainly very historic.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Name the next three U.S. Presidents on: July 03, 2015, 10:03:47 am
Hillary Rodham Clinton: 2017-2021
Marco Rubio: 2021-2029
Unknown democrat: 2029-2037
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary do better or worse in the EC than Obama 2012 if up against Jeb? on: June 22, 2015, 03:39:41 pm
Clinton: 299
Bush: 235
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who WILL BE the GOP nominee for President? on: May 17, 2015, 11:09:46 pm
Scott Walker.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Basic Reason Hilary Will Probably Win on: May 09, 2015, 10:30:31 pm
I think Hillary can win. More-so because the GOP doesn't have that one exciting candidate.

Rand Paul could be , but I don't think he's a good enough politician to win the primaries or the general.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 candidates- 1945-1992 era Politician Equalvant on: May 01, 2015, 10:01:49 pm
Hillary Rodham Clinton: George H.W. Bush 1988
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Current ticket predictions? on: April 26, 2015, 08:19:55 pm
Clinton/Kaine

Walker/Rubio
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who should Hillary Clinton pick as her VP? on: April 16, 2015, 07:51:39 pm
Martin Heinrich
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / 1920-1988 on: April 16, 2015, 03:22:55 pm
Your theory on why almost every presidential election was an electoral college landslide during that time?
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Hillary Win? on: April 12, 2015, 05:00:22 pm
She has a pretty good chance.

I don't think Rand Paul and Marco Rubio are good enough politicians.

Scott Walker makes Al Gore look like George Clooney.

Jeb Bush is the most electable, but a tad too dull overall.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why Do You Think Bush Is Strongest? on: April 02, 2015, 06:19:54 am
He may not be stronger than Kasich or Paul, but he is DEFINITELY stronger than Walker, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Snyder, ...

Reasons:
1.) He's a great debater. Better than Clinton.
2.) He can appeal to Hispanics and maybe Asian Americans (but not because of muh Hispanic wife!)
3.) He has enough money.
4.) He can defeat Clinton.
5.) He would be an establishment candidate.
6.) He's smarter than Romney and wouldn't let Hillary define him as "pure dynasty evil".

He's the most electable, but not exciting to anyone. To win a presidential election, you have to make yourself really stand-out. Jeb is way too "more of the same".
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is the strongest GOP candidate against Hillary? on: April 01, 2015, 09:23:45 am
Jeb Bush is the most electable, but he is not exciting at all.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Worst-run presidential campaign on: March 31, 2015, 06:59:50 am
1976 Carter: ironically despite this being a winning candidacy Carter was up like 30 points on Ford the summer before the election. Ford closed the gap to 2 points on election day. Many pundits have concluded a few more days campaigning and moderate Ford would likely have won this one.

I was in a poli sci course that semester and the course was almost entirely about that election. The data we saw suggested that Ford peaked the weekend before the election, so had it been held on Sunday instead of Tuesday he might have been retained in office. We also astonished the professor by predicting that the election would be one of the closest of the century, which it was.



I'm inclined to think the race was going to tighten no matter what because there too many things in the incumbent's favor, so I'm hesitant to say Carter '76 was the worst winning campaign.

Wildcard choice for worst winning campaign: Clinton '96. He had peace, prosperity, Democrats had only held the WH for one term, had a washed-up, inept campaigner for an opponent, had a GOP Congress to rail against...and yet still won only by single digits and couldn't crack 50% of the vote. I know there were questions about his character, but were they any worse than questions about Nixon's character when he won in '72? I guess also we could see the beginnings of regional polarization in this election..

There was also the Ross Perot factor possibly keeping Clinton 50%.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / 1932 election on: March 30, 2015, 02:14:22 pm
How did Hoover win Pennsylvania?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Name the next three U.S. Presidents on: March 22, 2015, 09:03:58 am
Hillary Rodham Clinton 2017-2021
John Kasich 2021-2025
Unknown democrat 2025-2033
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 3-10 points on: March 14, 2015, 04:25:09 am
So Hillary leads Jeb by double digits in OH/PA (and even by a point in Florida), but only by three nationally? That's obviously impossible. They really need to fix their schizophrenic state/national divide.

It kind of reminds me of the Obama/Romney polls in 2011/2012. Obama was up in most or all of the key states, but often tied nationally.
24  General Politics / Economics / Re: Strong Nov. Jobs Report: 321,000 added, unemployment rate unchanged on: December 06, 2014, 08:39:51 pm
2011-2013 was painfully slow, but this year has been quite good.
Actually, you can say the recovery began in late-2011, after the debt ceiling crisis, when job creation jumped up closer to 200K per month and unemployment rapidly fell. It was late 2009 - late 2011 that was grindingly slow. Now it seems that this year we're possibly achieving escape velocity, and momentum keeps building, but it's a frustratingly slow build.

I meant it was largely awful in 2009/2010. Then 2011-2013, the very slow turnaround. 2014- the solid rebound.
25  General Politics / Economics / Re: Strong Nov. Jobs Report: 321,000 added, unemployment rate unchanged on: December 05, 2014, 04:54:05 pm
2011-2013 was painfully slow, but this year has been quite good.
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