I would really like to se a map of SSW's voter share. From what I can pick up, it looks like SSW lost a bit in the core areas, but gains elsewhere like Kiel

Yes, that would be interesting (in memoriam of my grand-grandmother from Haderslev). If you can provide me with an SVG base map of communities in Schleswig (the State part, not the city/ county), I would do the map. Otherwise, I fear it would take me another four weeks to get the base map ready ..

In any case, the only parts outside historical Schleswig where SSW was running were Kiel, the remainder of Rendsburg/ Eckernförde county, and Helgoland. Helgoland was new, and they got smashing 17.9% there (out of 764 votes in total). In Kiel, they also gained quite strongly. In the city of Flensburg and in Schleswig-Flensburg county, they each lost a bit more than 2%. In Rendsburg-Eckernförde, they lost 0.8%, while in North Frisia they virtually remained unchanged. Leaving aside the many small villages, here a run-down on the larger localities (more than 1.000 total votes)in Rendsburg-Eckernförde:


All in all, Kiel appears to be the outlier  (is there a sizeable Danish community in town? - non-German EU citizens were allowed  to vote as well ). Leaving aside Helgoland, I see no signs of SSW growth in non-traditional areas. Quite some loss around Flensburg (which I would call reversal to the mean), much statistical noise, maybe a slight decline elsewhere, and possibly a bit of gains around Eckernförde.                                      
                                  

Thanks a lot. I agree with your conclusion. I find it positive that SSW isn't punished significantly for the party's participation in the state government.
And no maps from me. Don't know how to make them and havn't got the time anyway

I would really like to se a map of SSW's voter share. From what I can pick up, it looks like SSW lost a bit in the core areas, but gains elsewhere like Kiel

Do the local elections have the 5 % threshold too?

The political caste has been occasionally chattering about the need to reduce the number of states since 1949. Nothing ever comes off it of course - the only reform proposals to engender public support are ones that increase the number of states, not decrease it.

What new states are suggested? (and didn't Baden, Württemberg-Hohenzollern and Baden-Württemberg unite in 52?)

I was in Fælledparken yesterday and witnessed anti-democratic hooligans attact women and children. They also tried to rip the red banners to pieces and threw things at the Lord Mayor of Copenhagen. 100 % assholes!

Oh, and the Greens, no surprise there.
I like the EGP anyways

I've voted Conservative in the past two European elections back when it was part of the EPP. After the 2009 elections the Tories decamped to form the ECR which I don't subscribe to. My vote is likely to go to the Greens/EFA by voting for the SNP or the Scottish Greens.

Do the Scottish Greens have a chance of winning a seat?

My guess in Denmark (based on absolutely no polling)

A - Soc.Dem (PES) 3 (-1)
B - Soc.Lib  (ALDE) 1 (+1)
C - Con.       (EPP)  0 (-1)
F - SF            (EGP) 1 (-1)
I - LA             (?)     0
N - Peo.Mov  (GUE) 1 (0)
O - DF           (EFD)  2 (0)
V - Venstre  (ALDE) 5 (+2)

But things could go significantly different. SD could easily loose another mandate. C and SF is very hard to predict because they are struggling pollwise but both have well known frontrunners. Enhedslisten might run on its on list, which probably would kill People's Movement. Liberal Alliance might be able to gather the anti-EU rightwing vote, but they need a strong frontrunner. Venstre is looking really strong in national poolings, but they removed their strong frontrunner, Jens Rohde from the list do to internal struggle, so right now they are running nobodies

I guess I should put this here: anybody interested in me beginning to write up some complete guide (like the incomplete one I attempted before the legislatives in June) for the municipal elections next year, covering all major cities and other issues of local government in France? I figure if I get an early start, I might put together something which isn't horrible.

Please do it. I'd love to know more about the major cities and local government in Paris

Interesting result. Any results by locality or the like?

Valg.gl has it all. By municipality (kommune), city (by) and voting place (afstemningssted)
Just klik the green "Landstingsvalg 2013 totalt"

Also, who is Mimi Carlsen?

I have no idea, so I googled. Apparently the current Minister for Culture, Education, Research and Church Affairs.

Who'll be Siumut's coalition partners?

That is the question...

You edited that in after I posted! Why you sneaky danish bastard...

Well, felt like saying a bit more

Who'll be Siumut's coalition partners?

That is the question...
Siumut is having meetings with the other parties. My (completly unqualified) guess is Attassut. I don't think Siumut can meet PI's demands, and I don't think that Ia wants to be a part of a Siumut-led coalition. Don't know about The Danish Party Democrats

And mandates:

A Atassut                2 (-1)
D Democrats           2 (-2)
IA Inuit Ataqatigiit  11 (-3)
KP Ass. of Cand.      0 (-1)
PI Partii Inuit           2 (+2)
S Siumut               14 (+5)
 Others                   0

Source: valg.gl

The government coalition (IA, KP & D) lost heavily and KP is out of parliament. Siumut made major gains and is again the largest party in Greenland. The question is who is willing to enter a coalition with Siumut? Extreme leftwing PI (the Greenlandic equivalent to DK Unity List) or Atassut, the old rightwing party (who hasn't won an election in a loooong time)

Mimi Carlsen from IA elected with 113 votes

Here is the full result:

Results Party Name Parliament Election 2013  Parliament Election 2009 Change
A Atassut              2.454   8,1%   (3.094   10,9%) -640      -2,7
D Democrats         1.870   6,2%   (3.620   12,7%) -1.750    -6,5
IA Inuit Ataqatigiit 10.374 34,4%  (12.457 43,7%) -2.083   -9,3
KP Ass. of Cand.    326      1,1%   (1.084   3,8%)   -758      -2,7
PI Partii Inuit         1.930   6,4%   (0          0,0%)  +1.930  +6,4
S Siumut               12.910 42,8% (7.567    26,5%)+5.343  +16,3
 Others                  9         0,0%   (70         0,2%)  -61       -0,2


Source: valg.gl

Siumut won the election with 42,8 %
IA got 34,4 %
Looks like Greenland gets its first female leader

Any reasons why the Greens are losing votes in Helsinki?

I would love to see some more results - particularly in Wallonia

The SPP realignment story continues.

27 year old wonderboy and architecht behind the partys "pragmatic" right wing turn Thor Møger Petersen is fired as Minister of Taxation and replaced with 62 year old former party chairman Holger K. Nielsen from the "traditionalist" left wing of the party.
Nicknamed "Møgungen" ("the brat") Thor Møger was hated among the middle aged rank and file members from which Vilhelmsen draws her support.

Former Communist party boss turned succesfull publisher and neoliberal SPP right winger Ole Sohn is fired as Minister of Business and Growth (where he was quite popular with the business community) and replaced with new party chairman Anette Vilhelmsen.

After two days of marathon negotiations first with prime minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt and today with the leader of the dominant Social Liberals Margrethe Vestager it will be interesting to see if Vilhelmsen has managed to get any concessions from the two other "queens" in the government.

Fun fact. After the election of Vilhelmsen all four party leaders to the "left" are female and all four party leaders to the right are male. Boys against girls in the next election campaign.  

Calling Ole Sohn neoliberal is wrong in so many ways....
How about you drop the Ekstrabladet rhetoric. It is after all the equivalent of the Daily Hatemail.

And then to more serious business. This isn't a realignment, but on one hand at struggle between a more streamlined party understanding and a focus on internal party democracy. Villy Søvndal failed to grasp the dissatisfaction among large and influential parts of the party where it came to the way things were run. The little things like failing to give the dissatisfied a forum to get rid of their frustrations etc.
On the other hand the personality of the two candidates was very important. Astrid Krag failed miserably when it came to likeability and ran a bad campaign whereas Annette Vilhelmsen presented herself as a much more pleasant person (but weaker on policies) and ran a near perfect campaign.

The biggest losers were the political experts, who presented the election of Astrid Krag as a done deal, again proving that they have few to none reliable sources in SF  

Do whatever you want in whatever order you want.

I'm with Al
Besides that would I love to have a list over the deals between Les Verts and PS - and where FG stand a chance. And if you bother, the same with NC and UMP

And of cause all the DVG and DVD - always fun to see who is real diverse and who is just dissidents from the major parties

So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?

Yes, indeed ( and I do enjoy reading your blogs too)

Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".

Is it correctly understood that The Pirate Party is willing to support a Danish Traffic Light coalition from outside the cabinet? So that one or more silly SPD members cannot do the same trick as 2005.

http://www.landtagswahl-sh.de/wahlen.php?site=left/status_karte&wahl=23

I was just going to claim that no one besides me seems to give a flying chutiya. Three more results in, two safe SPD seats in Kiel and funny ole Flensburg (another SPD gain, with 18.4% SSW in the list vote.)

I care - and am most certainly following the results
And: Go SSW

It looks like the second round will be between Sauli Niinistö from the National Coalition Party and Pekka Haavisto from the Green Party. That is the first time at Green Party candidate makes it to the second round. And Haavisto is gay by the way.

Sauli Niinistö (NCP) 36.8%

Pekka Haavisto (GREEN) 18.6%

Paavo Väyrynen (CEN) 17.7%

Timo Soini (FINNS) 9.5%

Paavo Lipponen (SDP) 6.7%

Paavo Arhinmäki (LA) 5.5%

Eva Biaudet (SPP) 2.7%

Sari Essayah (CD) 2.5%

http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2012/01/presidential_elections_niinisto_haavisto_headed_for_second_round_3195175.html

From what I heard my f'ing stupid party is going to do f'ing stupid things again and is ready to join in as a junior partner in a Grand coalition, despite having the best chances to became the strongest party after early elections and for party leader Heiko Maas to become Minister president then (either in a SPD/CDU or a SPD/Left coalition).

Not to late to give up hope, but things sound bad.


Edit: As "Old Europe" pointed out I got the first name of the SPD-Saarland leader wrong.

Why do SPD insist on killing it self by being junior partner in grand coalitions? I makes very little sense!