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December 07, 2016, 09:06:06 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump vs. Keith Ellison on: November 26, 2016, 04:52:02 pm
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread on: November 26, 2016, 03:10:07 pm
Where is the best place to find updated precinct shapefiles for a whole state?  Only one I can find for TN is from the 2010 census data.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Counties with the longest streak of voting for one party for President on: November 25, 2016, 03:23:27 pm
Tennessee

D: Haywood (since 1972)
R: Cocke, Hancock, Wayne (Never D in Atlas history which dates to 1912)

According to the maps on the Wikipedia pages for each election, Wayne has been R since 1876.  Cocke and Hancock have been R since 1868.  Hancock did vote for Breckenridge in 1860 but the last time Cocke voted Democrat was for Andrew Jackson in 1832, and even that appears to be by a close margin.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can't imagine how this failed to resonate in the Rust Belt... on: November 22, 2016, 11:36:36 pm
I actually really like this video, though perhaps that underscores the problem.

Clinton spent a great deal of time going after me - not me personally, but disaffected Republicans who were offended by Trump's remarks and who believe in a pluralistic and open society.  And she did get some of them as evidenced by the swings toward her in affluent suburbs and urban areas.

But for every one disaffected urbane Republican in Houston or Nashville or San Diego, there were three unemployed steel workers in states that matter in the electoral college who probably didn't take a liking to this sort of message.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Nashville/Davidson Co. TN Precinct results maps on: November 13, 2016, 06:13:46 pm
Here are maps of the Presidential results in Nashville - first one is who won each precinct, second one is swing from 2012, third is % for 3rd party candidates + people who only voted downballot.

Yuuge swings (one precinct with nearly 50%) from R to D in affluent areas like Belle Meade and West Meade, smaller swings the same direction across the southern part of the county.  These areas also had extremely high numbers of Write-ins, votes for Gary Johnson, and people who left the Presidential slot blank.  The afore mentioned West Meade precinct had 8.5% for write-in and nearly 15% who voted but didn't cast ballots for Trump+Clinton.

There were larger swings towards Trump in more rural precincts up north, and very small but consistent swings towards him in AA precincts.



Colors are a bit off because I originally made them in non-atlas colors and attempted an automatic conversion to atlas colors.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you understand the anguish and frustration of Trump supporters? on: November 02, 2016, 07:25:58 pm
They've heard them speak out since the 1960s. They feel that those groups have not contributed to American society in a proper way.

I'm sorry, is this the "proper" way they're supposed to contribute?

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you understand the anguish and frustration of Trump supporters? on: November 02, 2016, 07:15:31 pm
None of those things are the fault of immigrants, POWs, persons with intellectual disabilities, gold star families, or women who would prefer that their sexual organs not be grabbed without permission, so no.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict your state's county map... on: October 29, 2016, 09:05:25 pm


Same as 2012 except counties like Williamson, Davidson, Shelby, Knox, Hamilton move slightly in Clinton's direction and rural counties moving a little more towards Trump.  Hardeman will be very close.

Trump 59%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 3%
Others 1%
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Icelandic parliamentary election 2016 on: October 29, 2016, 06:04:08 pm
Looks like the poll trend lines that were showing a decrease in Pirate votes and increase in Left-Green votes crossed.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The big picture that everyone is ignoring on: October 29, 2016, 02:41:48 am
If you go back to the 90's and look at the level of vitriol that folks on my side of the aisle, and even myself personally, directed towards a white southerner by the name of Bill Clinton, the evidence goes against your theory.

Today's Drudge/Fox/Breitbart/Grandma's Facebook feed hate machine is the direct descendant of yesterday's Drudge/talk radio/right-wing newsletter hate machine that savagely attacked and/or held Clinton accountable to the point of impeaching a sitting President of the United States.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pence: "'It's time to "come home" for Republicans" on: October 24, 2016, 08:32:31 pm
Nah.  I'll come home when this ticket is sent packing after a terrible defeat.
Step into the light my friend.  Your party needs you!  You know you want to.  It will feel so good to cast that vote for the party of Lincoln.

Lincoln would be rolling over in his grave if he ever saw a Trump rally filled to the brim with confederate flags.
Lincoln had a Confederate currency note in his pocket when he was shot, or so I read.  The Confederate flag is merely a way of saying, I am a proud redneck!  Remember the Dukes of Hazzard show?  They had it on their car.  It's nothing but southern pride and good fun!  

Do you really believe this, or are you just pranking us?
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you support unlimited immigration? on: October 24, 2016, 08:21:37 am
No (R) - I think we need a bit more more legal immigration, but certainly not "unlimited".  Even good things should be done in moderation.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of "Fiscally conservative, but socially liberal" on: October 22, 2016, 06:22:39 pm
The most freedom-y of freedom ideologies.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why was HRC invited to the Al Smith Dinner? on: October 22, 2016, 09:23:20 am
I wonder what the threshold would have been to invite a third-party candidate?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican candidate would have done the best with African American voters on: October 16, 2016, 10:55:12 pm
Kasich. He'd get 15-18%. None of the other candidates listed would crack 15%

Kasich is a Country Club type - absolutely toxic (understandably so) to almost all AAs.

Easily Kasich.  Most of the GOP candidates who have done (relatively) well in the African-American community are more moderate.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What is the biggest city you've never heard of? on: October 12, 2016, 09:56:48 pm
Chula Vista #74
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who do you side with in the GOP civil war? on: October 12, 2016, 09:55:22 pm
Ryan, the real Republican.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans/Leaners: Do you want the GOP to disavow Trump/ stop supporting him? on: October 10, 2016, 08:27:31 pm
Yes, it's time to focus on the Senate and the House and stop supporting this buffoon.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans/Leaners: Do you want the GOP to disavow Trump/ stop supporting him? on: October 10, 2016, 08:25:05 pm
Yes, it's time to focus on the Senate and the House and stop supporting this buffoon.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: College Republicans Are Split Over Trump on: August 27, 2016, 04:08:04 pm
This sentiment goes beyond college students - well into the mid-30's.

This is not to say that there aren't younger Republicans who are for Trump - but these folks tend to fit very firmly in other Trump-supporting demographics.  The urban/rural dynamic is very much at play here too.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump's campaign the biggest scam of all time? on: August 24, 2016, 08:14:32 pm
Yes
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: New York City mayoral election, 1969 on: August 06, 2016, 01:47:14 pm
Lindsay
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A new poll has Trump in fourth, behind Gary Johnson AND Jill Stein w under 30 yo on: August 06, 2016, 08:24:38 am
I don't think these numbers are right on the mark, or what we would see in an actual election where 3rd party respondents either don't show up or decide to vote D or R, but in this environment I'm not sure they are that far off either.  In order for Johnson to be polling above 5%, he has to be doing really really really well among the youngs.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention days 3 and 4 **live commentary thread** on: July 28, 2016, 10:09:53 pm
This is a really, really good speech.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Grade Night Three of the DNC on: July 28, 2016, 12:27:15 am
A++  It was every thing a mainstream conservative party should reflect.  What exactly was that anti-trade, anti-free-market anti-NATO doom and gloom sh**t-show on TV last week anyway?

Tonight leaves me more convinced that this is a real party realignment.  By 2030, GOP = mid 20th century Dems (anti-trade, pro-jobs programs, very racist/nativist wing, vaguely isolationist/anti-war FP, ) and Dems = 19th century R's (aggressive on civil rights, vaguely libertarian economics, serious corruption problems, vaguely internationalist FP)  is totally plausible IMO.

One thing to think about though - the future of these parties, the people currently in their 20s and 30s, is not like that at all.  Younger Republicans were less supportive of Trump and are more aligned with the traditional GOP ideas on economics while being more libertarian on social issues.  Younger Democrats are left-wing in both economics and social issues and are becoming more isolationist by the minute.
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