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51  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: House Redistricting Co-op on: July 26, 2014, 11:53:18 pm

Certainly, should an Idaho map that contains both Canyon and Ada counties in one district be used for the thread? My only concern is having North Idaho and SE Idaho in one district.

That gets back to definitions. Is it better to split the Boise metro, or to put the opposite parts of the state together? The tougher question is why shouldn't the opposite parts of the state be together? Can it be quantified or clearly described?

Fair mapping is tough to defend without principles. States that have fair mapping have language defining how to draw the map. Some states are much better than others at stating what fair means. That gives us the ability to say what we mean, and how it might be better than what states currently use.
What about swapping Payette, Gem, and Boise for Minidoka, Lincoln, and Jerome, making a more Boise-centric district (plus Twin Falls).

Northern Idaho is isolated from all of southern Idaho.  Driving from Pocatello to Couer d'Alene is about the same as Boise to Couer d'Alene, and the best routes may be through the Tri Cities in Washington, or Butte and Missoula in Montana.

At the time of Wesberry v Sanders, Idaho was very malapportioned 409K vs 257K.  The northern district included Canyon (Nampa) while the southern included Ada (Boise).  That is, they were trying to include everything feasible in a Northern Idaho district and were still coming up short.

The minimum change option was to split Boise.  With the growth of Boise, it may be feasible now to have a deformed quarter-doughnut.
52  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: MN with 7 CDs on: July 26, 2014, 10:20:41 pm
When Jesse Ventura was governor, the DFL and Republicans proposed hack plans, and Ventura proposed a quite rational plan based on 5:3.  What happens if Minnesota has another statesman as governor in 2021?
53  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 26, 2014, 10:17:53 pm
This shows the urban areas in southern Florida.



There is hardly anyone inland south of Tampa.

Note that commuting from Polk County is dominate to the east: 19K to Orange, 8K to Osceola, 12K to Hillsborough, 1K to Lake, 1K to Highlands).   The inverse is not true.  Commuting to Polk County: Hillsborough 10K, Orange 2K, Osceola 2K, Lake 1K, Highlands 1K.

Internal commuting within Polk County is 192K, so clearly it is independent of Orlando and Tampa.  Whether someone identifies with Tampa or Orlando may depend on whether they live in Lakeland or Winter Haven, or whether they are a hockey fan or a basketball fan.

There is not a strong case for inclusion with Tampa or Orlando, so my decision is based on keeping the west coast within population limits, which may also justify chopping off the extreme north end of the Spring Hill to Naples conurbation.
54  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 26, 2014, 09:32:35 pm

I guess my remaining quibbles would be:

1) I prefer jimrtex's Florida; crossing the Everglades like you do in the Fort Lauderdale-Naples district seems like a poor idea, and I like that he keeps Miami-Dade mostly by itself (obviously Monroe is stuck behind it) on VRA grounds.
2) Virginia still rankles.  Whatever problems one has in splitting Roanoke from the Shenandoahs pales in comparison to the silliness that is mashing the southwest and NoVA together.
3) What I said about PA, though that is much more minor than the issues with FL and VA.

FTR I agree with your rationale in putting Calvert with the DC district rather than the Baltimore one.

I have two problems with jimrtex's FL map. First is that it lops Hernando county off of the Tampa district, even though it is in the UCC. Putting it back puts the district over the population limit by about 60 K, even if all the inland counties are removed. The second issue is that if the VRA or something like that is used for Miami, then there is no justification to put Monroe with it. Disconnected districts would apply here just as in MA. Of course Monroe would best fit with Collier geographically, but that would add further to the Tampa overpopulation. That leaves it going with the east side counties.

Does the Hispanic CoI in Miami-Dade justify overpopulation of the Tampa district?
Putting Hernando in Tampa Bay, and shifting DeSoto and Hardee to Southeast puts Tampa Bay at 1.35 of the national average.  I'd go for either an exception or splitting Hernando off.  Hernando is somewhat a case of chain inclusion with Pasco ending up as a central county, and some commuting from Hernando into Pasco.

Monroe has nothing to do with the VRA.  Key West is quite remote from anywhere.  You can fly from a number of Florida cities.  I might choose Fort Myers because it is closer to Houston.  If you weren't flying from a major airline hub, you might choose to fly via Fort Lauderdale.   But then you might seriously consider renting a car.

The ferry from Fort Myers to Key West does not run on Tuesday and Wednesday, is passenger only, and takes 3-1/2 hours sailing (+1/2 hour pre-boarding), and sails once a day.

As Train notes, there is nobody living on the mainland (actually there are 20 persons, 4 less than the 24 in the Dry Tortugas.   And large parts of the Monroe population do not live in Key West, with about half the population from Marathon landward.  Key Largo is 60 miles from Miami and 100 miles from Key West.
55  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Which is more liberal: New York State or Ontario? on: July 25, 2014, 06:00:23 am
I thought the op kept replying to himself Tongue

But Ontario is obviously farther to the left than New York.
This map shows it standing on NY.

56  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 23, 2014, 10:51:47 pm
I would just go with Western Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. Worcester County is part of (indeed, is) Central rather than Western Massachusetts, technically, but when there are only two options it's often lumped in with the West insofar as it's economically and culturally dominated by a city that isn't Boston, one of Boston's suburbs or exurbs, or on or near the seacoast.
In cases where one district contains most of the area of a state, and the other districts can be denoted as representing a specific area of the state, I have also been permitting:

(1) The name of the state.
(2) The official nickname of the state.
(3) What is on the license plates.

In this case, I left off the license plates, since I doubt that anyone from other than Massachusetts and New Hampshire would associate the slogan with Massachusetts (in the case of NH, it is because it is on Grandpa's car when he comes up to visit).  Everyone else would think it was some sort of dealer plate advertising the auto make.
57  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 23, 2014, 08:45:56 pm
Here's my draft of the plan for all 100 districts.

MA (2)
   MA-Bay 4925K
   MA-Berkshire 1623K

Massachusetts 2909K
Boston 3639K

Alternative names:

The Bay State;
Berkshires, Connecticut Valley, Worcester, Cape Cod, and the Islands;
Trans-I-495;

Cis-I-495;

History

Massachusetts, which included Maine had three districts, with one allocated to Maine.  When Maine achieved statehood in 1820, Massachusetts kept the two districts which it had previously.
A 3rd district was added in 1860.  It lost the 3rd district in 1970, when it ranked 10th, its lowest ranking ever.  It dropped out of the top 10 in 1980, and in 2010 was 14th.
58  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 23, 2014, 08:24:08 pm
Howard and Ann Arundel are central counties of the Baltimore MSA.  Because they were in the Baltimore MSA in 1990, they were included in the Baltimore urbanized area, and the census bureau simply found a convenient location near the county line to chop the urbanized areas.  It is a circular definition.  Howard is in the Baltimore MSA because Howard in in the Baltimore MSA.

Calvert County is oriented toward the Chesapeake, with the largest town Chesapeake Beach.  It has the oldest state marine research facility on the east coast.  Chesapeake Bay is the defining feature of Maryland.  Baltimore is a large city because it is located at the head of Chesapeake Bay.  It it a not so large city, since the Susquehanna goes north.

Washington was deliberately located on the Potomac because it was the state line, and close to the home of George Washington.  The Potomac river is an important secondary feature of Maryland, and the concentration of population is tied to it.


I appreciate the history, but we spent some time, and you in particular helped develop the UCC metric. We understood during that process that there are changes and mergers that might well be desired over the last couple of decades, but the Census is stuck. Nonetheless, the UCC model can stand up as a neutral division and seems to be worth using, particularly where one goal is to take a neutral approach to CoIs. So is it really worth ignoring it for one small county?
Inclusion of rural counties in MSA is often artificial.  It just means that people can own a small chunk of land, have a few cattle, a place to ride ATVs, perhaps what is seen as a better environment for their children, if they are willing to commute a long distance to work.  A neighboring county that actually has stronger ties with the metropolis may be excluded because its small town may provide some local jobs.  Mille Lacs is part of the Twin Cities MSA for goodness sakes.

That is why they were excluded from UCC.  I recognized, even if you did not, that these peripheral counties would be included/excluded from districts solely based on population needs and proximity to the actual urban core.  If the UCC is short a whole number of districts, the smaller adjacent counties will get tacked on.  If the UCC is close to a whole number of districts, they are excluded.

But since Calvert is not in a UCC because of its remoteness, and its population concentration on the eastern, bayside, of the county.  I am willing to bet the sensibilities of the residents is that they are part of the Chesapeake Bay community, even if they work for the federal government.  They may have chosen their home because it is so unlike the madness of the capital.

I am willing to let the residents of St Mary's, Calvert, Anne Arundel, and Howard decide for themselves.
59  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 23, 2014, 04:52:24 pm
Your map shows Calvert and St. Mary's as part of Potomac, but your numbers appear to include St.Mary's in Chesapeake.   I would place Calvert in Chesapeake, and St.Mary's in Potomac.

Potomac 3175K
Chesapeake 3201K


My map was correct and I caught the numeric error after my post. I corrected them for my upcoming v2, along with the addition of DC to Potomac.

Potomac 3263K
Chesapeake 3112K

Calvert is part of the DC metro even if it's too rural to be in the UCC. I see no good reason to shift it to Balto.
Are they Baltimore and Washington, or Chesapeake and Potomac?

Every other county in the western district includes the Potomac River.   Every other county that Borders Chesapeake Bay is part of the eastern district.

If we were using commuting patterns Ann Arundel and Howard would be part of the Washington MSA.

I relied on the Census assignments which puts those two counties in the Baltimore MSA (Feb 2013). That in turn puts the two counties in the Baltimore UCC.

A name that is representative of a district need not apply explicitly to every county in a district. It is meant to be suggestive of the district as a whole and in comparison to other districts in the state.
Howard and Ann Arundel are central counties of the Baltimore MSA.  Because they were in the Baltimore MSA in 1990, they were included in the Baltimore urbanized area, and the census bureau simply found a convenient location near the county line to chop the urbanized areas.  It is a circular definition.  Howard is in the Baltimore MSA because Howard in in the Baltimore MSA.

Calvert County is oriented toward the Chesapeake, with the largest town Chesapeake Beach.  It has the oldest state marine research facility on the east coast.  Chesapeake Bay is the defining feature of Maryland.  Baltimore is a large city because it is located at the head of Chesapeake Bay.  It it a not so large city, since the Susquehanna goes north.

Washington was deliberately located on the Potomac because it was the state line, and close to the home of George Washington.  The Potomac river is an important secondary feature of Maryland, and the concentration of population is tied to it.
60  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 23, 2014, 07:21:57 am
Your map shows Calvert and St. Mary's as part of Potomac, but your numbers appear to include St.Mary's in Chesapeake.   I would place Calvert in Chesapeake, and St.Mary's in Potomac.

Potomac 3175K
Chesapeake 3201K


My map was correct and I caught the numeric error after my post. I corrected them for my upcoming v2, along with the addition of DC to Potomac.

Potomac 3263K
Chesapeake 3112K

Calvert is part of the DC metro even if it's too rural to be in the UCC. I see no good reason to shift it to Balto.
Are they Baltimore and Washington, or Chesapeake and Potomac?

Every other county in the western district includes the Potomac River.   Every other county that Borders Chesapeake Bay is part of the eastern district.

If we were using commuting patterns Ann Arundel and Howard would be part of the Washington MSA.
61  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 22, 2014, 10:53:29 pm
Here's my draft of the plan for all 100 districts.

MD (2)
   MD-Potomac 2566K
   MD-Chesapeake 3217K

Your map shows Calvert and St. Mary's as part of Potomac, but your numbers appear to include St.Mary's in Chesapeake.   I would place Calvert in Chesapeake, and St.Mary's in Potomac.

The District of Columbia has been included as part of Maryland (and Virginia until 1845).  Initially, the population was quite small, and there was the feeling that those who lived in Georgetown and Alexandria should not lose the right to vote for representatives in Congress, and it did not interfere with Congress's exclusive jurisdiction.  After the 13th Amendment was passed, granting weighted voting rights to delegates from territories, it became quite natural to continue representation, with the understanding that the District was not on the path to statehood as the other territories were.

The population reached its peak share of the combined population in 1940 (26.6%).  Even though the district gained 20.9% to reach its maximum population in 1950, its share had begun to decline as Montgomery and Prince George's doubled during the 1940s, and again during the 1950s.   The district now contains 9.4% of the combined population.

Potomac 3175K
Chesapeake 3201K

History

Maryland (plus DC) has always had two districts.  During long periods of the 19th and early 20th century, it was the district population that kept Maryland from dropping to a single district.  This was another factor in maintaining its inclusion in representation.
62  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 22, 2014, 03:34:08 pm
Here's my draft of the plan for all 100 districts.



IN (2)
   IN-Lake Michigan 2628K
   IN-Hoosier 3856K

What is your thinking on Indiana?  The size and location of Indianapolis make it likely that an asymmetric plan would be required with Indianapolis being placed with the less populous end.  Indianapolis doesn't have enough size to make a good hole for a doughnut, and the north and south don't fit together that well.

So I came up with the following three-region plan.



From the north, you take Gary, Michigan City, South Bend, Elkhart, and Fort Wayne, and start moving south through rural areas.

From the south, you have Evansville, Tell City, and the Louisville and Cincinnati suburbs.

To Indianapolis, you add Anderson and New Castle, which are in the CSA.  And since you're going east, take Muncie and Richmond.

The south is short of population, even for 2/3 of 1/3 of the state population, so it takes in Columbus and Bloomington, even though they could be considered satellites of Indianapolis.  Bartholomew (Columbus) is part of the CSA; Monroe (Bloomington) likely would be except for the university providing jobs (ie the sorts of jobs found in Columbus, can be found in Indianapolis if you can't find one of them in Columbus).  And since the south is still short, you take Terre Haute.  Since Indiana developed north to south from the Ohio River, it makes sense to come up the Wabash.

The northern district is short a little bit for a 2-district plan, so it takes Lafayette and Kokomo, which could also be considered distant satellites of Indianapolis (and might have been placed in the central district in a 3-district plan.

Merging the southern and central districts gives:

Northern Indiana 2686K
Indianapolis and Southern Indiana 3798

History

Indiana gained its 2nd district in 1840, and its 3rd in 1860, as it reached 6th place from 1860 to 1880.   Indiana lost the 3rd district in 1910.  In the midwestern industrial boom after WWII, it made some progress towards gaining the 3rd district back but has since faineded.

Iowa gained its 2nd district in 1870, as it reached its apex of 10th place from 1880 to 1900, slow growth, or even loss of population caused Iowa to lose the 2nd seat in 1960.

Kansas gained its 2nd seat in 1880, which it held until 1930.

Kentucky was part of Virginia, and would have been part of one of Virginia's five districts, perhaps a district that included Kentucky, present-day West Virginia, and Virginia west of the Blue Ridge.  Upon statehood, Kentucky gained its own district.  In 1810, it gained a 2nd district, and by 1830, narrowly missed a 3rd.  It maintained two districts until 1990.

Louisiana gained a 2nd district in 1860, only to lose it in 1870.  It regained a 2nd seat in 1900, which it held until 2010.

Maine was part of Massachusetts until 1820, and constituted one of Massachusetts' three districts.  In 1790, it was just below 2/3 of the average population of districts in multi-district states, but an exception was made because of its physical separation from Massachusetts.

Upon statehood, it received its own district, and Massachusetts dropped to two districts.  Maine achieved its second district in 1830, which it held until 1850.
63  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the racial distribution of your census tract? on: July 19, 2014, 10:49:04 pm
If you are interested in how the Austrian "register-based census" is done, STATISTICS Austria has a nice English summary-brochure about the last one held in 2011.

In 2001, Austria for the last time used a traditional census like you guys still use it in the US with paper forms and house visits etc. - but the government changed to register-based census-taking, because the Central Population Register, as well as several other comparison-registers already have all the info that is needed for a big census (only religion is not in any register, but this is not needed anyway).

Here is the English summary brochure with an explanation of how the RBC works:

PDF-file, 27 Megabytes.

http://www.statistik.at/dynamic/wcmsprod/idcplg?IdcService=GET_NATIVE_FILE&dID=164796&dDocName=076875
I'm pretty sure the concept of register would be a non-go in the USA.  Democrats would be concerned about it being used to deport illegal aliens.  Republicans would be concerned about the state having so much information on people.

Though of course the simple solution to Voter ID is that the federal government would issue the ID cards, and require that voters be permitted to vote in federal elections using the ID.  States would be free to maintain their other system of voter registration.  The federal government would automatically update local election authorities when a federal ID holder updates their address.

The federal system of government would also be a problem.  Imagine trying to do an EU census based on many registers of varying quality.
64  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the racial distribution of your census tract? on: July 18, 2014, 03:40:55 pm
A curiosity was the high number of persons from the Dominican Republic?  Is there some obvious connection, or is it like in the US where there is often chain migration, where friends and relatives are encouraged to immigrate where they are often provided housing and other assistance getting established. 
Regarding the Dominicans (I checked the numbers, there are only 3000 in the whole country - of which I think mostly in Vienna): They seem to be regular immigrants, but there's of course the possibility that some brought their families with them after some time.
Among those from the Americas, only Americans and Brazilians were more numerous.  There are not that many Dominicans in DR (9 millions) and no obvious connection with Austria.  There are large numbers of Dominicans in New York City, where Adriano Espaillat (the 'll' is pronounced like the 'j' in Jemen) narrowly lost to Charlie Rangel, in his bid to become the first Dominican-American congressman.

Rangel-Espaillet primary map

Quote
Quote
Is the J in Jemen and Japan pronounced the same?
And yes, the J in Jemen and Japan is pronounced the same: Not like the "Tschey" you Americans pronounce it, but more like "yuh-mmy". In the case of Japan, it's pronounced "yuh-puhn".
It was interesting that in one case that the spelling was changed to match the pronunciation, while the other the pronunciation was change to match the spelling.

Universal Language of Tsch!
65  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 18, 2014, 08:47:08 am
WA Columbia is underpopulated.  Moving northward to include Lewis and the coast could put it into range, as would an alternative of a very Seattle-centric district (4 counties).
A split of the three county Sea-Tac UCC is quite even (3440K to 3288K), but I don't see the need to force the northern Puget Sound with eastern WA. The shift of Thurston and the Olympic Peninsula (except Kitsap) is within range. It seems like it would make more sense to keep Thurston with Mason and Lewis, but perhaps a native from the area can provide a more expert view.
I was kind of hoping that Thurston and Mason could be kept in a Puget Sound district.   I would put Bremerton with Sea-Tac.  Its exclusion from the UCC is due to largely to the urbanized area not being able to jump across large bodies of water, and the UA from Tacoma just barely reaching into Kitsap County.

Quote
Quote
MO Ozarks is underpopulated.  Moving Vernon and Bates makes that within range.  Is there something distinctively "northern" about them?  Coming across the north of the state to connect St.Louis and Kansas City is pretty radical as it is, is there a reason to extend the finger further south?  I'd like to see an east-west split, and perhaps a St.Louis-Kansas City district (two unconnected metro areas), or a Missouri River district with northern and southern rural areas separated.   The Missouri River district would include Columbia, Jefferson City, and probably extend north to St.Joseph.
The counties that border KS north of Joplin are more Plains than Ozarks, but Vernon could go either way. Moving Vernon brings Ozarks to 2263.8K or 0.667, just inside the quota. I wouldn't shift Bates which is much more in KC's CoI.

There is a rivalry between KC and St Louis with the state capital and Mizzou forming the neutral zone. The Ozarks would go with St Louis in a two-way split (they are Cards fans), but that results in a KC piece that is too small. The cultural split is really between the south and the north as seen in the periodic threads that argue about whether MO is southern or midwestern. The existence of a Little Dixie region north of Columbia is another clue that the south-north split better captures the state's divisions.
Cards fans are everywhere.  St.Louis had a very extensive farm system, and the A's didn't move to KC until the 1950s and left after little more than a decade.  The Browns were laughable, so Cards were the closest major league club for 2/3 or more of the country.

I thought Little Dixie was more along the Mississippi - like in Hannibal?, and that part of its decline in significance was due to capture of counties like St.Charles and Lincoln by St.Louis?
66  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Most characteristically Democratic state on: July 18, 2014, 07:28:11 am
Massachusetts is certainly thought of as a quintessentially D state, but Maryland is basically a perfect representation of the modern Democratic coalition.
But does Maryland come to mind when thinking of states, other than when trying to remember all 50?
67  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the racial distribution of your census tract? on: July 18, 2014, 07:19:08 am
100% White (rural AUT)
Does the Austrian census (if such exists) show the population by country of birth?

Yes, Austria has a Census.

The last one was done in 2011, but the numbers from the CPR (Central Population Register) are more up-to-date than the Census figures.

The country of birth numbers (from 2002 to 2014) are here:

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/static/bevoelkerung_zu_jahresbeginn_seit_2002_nach_detailliertem_geburtsland_037044.pdf
Quite interesting.   Other than Germans and some Italians, relatively small numbers in the old EU compared to numbers from the new EU, though this is probably also due to Austria's location as the easternmost country of the old EU, and Vienna's location on its eastern edge.  Is there any sense of affinity based on the A-H empire?  Are many remnants of German-speaking communities in these countries?  Or maybe just that Austria was not a NATO member?

But then the numbers from the new EU countries are quite overwhelmed by those from BiH and Serbia, and the numbers from Kosovo and Macedonia are quite high, so it is definitely not an EU-specific phenomena.

A curiosity was the high number of persons from the Dominican Republic?  Is there some obvious connection, or is it like in the US where there is often chain migration, where friends and relatives are encouraged to immigrate where they are often provided housing and other assistance getting established. 

Is the J in Jemen and Japan pronounced the same?
68  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the racial distribution of your census tract? on: July 18, 2014, 06:57:36 am
Looking into these numbers, about 0.5% of the population here was born in Africa.

(Most of them are living in the big cities).

In my home city of 10.000 I actually only know just 1 black family.

One could argue that Turks or Arabs, northern-Africans, Afghans etc. are our version of "Hispanics" though ... Tongue
In my home town, the surname of a particular family was synonymous with "Black".
69  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 18, 2014, 06:35:59 am

That then leaves the question as to how the Atlanta metro should split. The metro split you suggest is not based on any CoI, so I'm think some effort should go to see where there might be a CoI that keeps the pieces within the 2/3 - 4/3 quota range.


Quote
One particular county that resulted in my switch was Carroll County, which has double in population to over 110,000 in the 3 decades from 1980-2010, with the growth concentrated on the panhandle crossed by I-20.  It is thus similar to Sherburne County in Minnesota - where interstate access makes longer distance commuting possible.  So you have cut the doughnut along the Alabama line.

I don't see the COI that the southern fringe of your district has with Rome and Dalton.  Were they "North Georgia" before someone dropped the A(tlanta)-Bomb on the area?

The north-south boundary in GA is pretty well accepted and runs along the fall line that separates the Piedmont from the Coastal Plain. The mountains of the north form a much smaller division. The fall line runs from Columbus through Macon to Augusta. I used the metro areas of the fall line as the northern edge of the south, which also kept the Black Belt intact in the southern district.

The remainder becomes the northern two districts. Merriwether. Pike and Lamar are on the southern edge of the Atlanta metro as much as Pickens and Dawson are on the northern edge. They are all semi-rural counties in the metro with commuting populations. If the population split were acceptable, I would have put Rome, Dalton, Athens, and everything else north and east of the Atlanta metro in one district and the metro in another, but I can't.
In 1950 Atlanta metro consisted of Fulton (473K) and DeKalb (136K), and barely Cobb (61K, but up from 38K in 1940).

By 1970 it was still the same Fulton (607K), DeKalb (483K), and Cobb (196K).  From 1960 to 1990, Fulton kind of stagnated as available land for single family filled up, and family sizes declined as result of end of baby boom, and maturation of baby boom families.   Since then it has experienced considerable growth, which must be from higher density development, and singles preferring to live nearer their job and rent, than commuting from nearly Rome or Macon.

In 1980, Gwinnett and Clayton reached past 100K:

Fulton 589K (a small drop); DeKalb 483K; Cobb 297K; Gwinnett 166K; and Clayton 150K.  Gwinnett is about 3 times the size of Clayton, so Clayton might reasonably be considered the 4th county.

By 1990 there were no new counties over 100K.  Fulton 648K, DeKalb 545K, Cobb 447K, Gwinnet 352K, and Clayton 259K.

By 2010, there were 10 new counties of over 100K, with populations doubling, tripling, even quadrupling (Forsyth).

Meanwhile, the core counties had barely managed to increase by 50%: Fulton 920K, DeKalb 692K, Cobb 688K, and Clayton 259K.   Gwinnett with plenty of space now has 805K.  The connection of Gwinnett is also somewhat accidental due to Fulton's odd shape after its annexation  of a rural county in the 1930s.

So the basis of my district is the core 4 counties of the Atlanta metro, along with counties that fit between them: Douglas, Fayette, and Henry.  Even if there is some local knowledge of where the Fall Line is, a large city like Atlanta overwhelms that, as siting of cities does not depend on waterwheels.  I think to the other counties to the south, that the areas to the north are seen as quite remote.

I would let any county other than Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett to vote on their district.

Incidentally, there is a fairly serious effort to reconstitute Milton County, which is the northern area including Alpharetta and Sandy Springs.  It faces a limit of 159 counties in the Georgia Constitution.  As a sweetener, they would permit a merged Atlanta-Fulton government, similar to Columbus-Muscogee and Athens-Clarke.

Quote
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The GA plan may be a compromise, but it doesn't particularly follow the rules. If the split between the Atlanta UCC and the rest of north GA is too unequal, then there should be a CoI justification. I would suggest using minority representation based on BVAP. This map shows counties shaded for 25-33.3%, 33.3-40%, 40-50%, and 50%+.



If one selects the Atlanta UCC counties that exceed 33.3% BVAP, those seven counties have a population of 2393K. That is 0.74 of the quota size for GA so it exceeds the 2/3 rule. The remainder in the north is 4253K and is 1.32 of the GA quota which is less than 4/3. This is a compromise in the spirit of the rules.
Does race form a geographic COI?


This was the question I posed a couple of weeks ago to train. He was using media markets while I was using census-based metro areas. Atlanta metro is large so the question of internal CoI comes up when looking for a split. Areas of a high proportion of a demographic group are very much what the states have used and the courts supported for CoI. Race is one of those demographic groups that has meaning in Atlanta. I used a rational basis that could get public support, and why not name it after the most prominent resident recognized with a national holiday.
The Gingles test requires racially-polarized voting.  If there is an extreme political difference, can the two groups be considered to form a single community?
70  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 17, 2014, 09:22:13 pm
If Ventura was given its choice of district:

(1) Silicon Valley-Central Coast;
(2) San Joaquin Valley;
(3) Orange County;
(4,5) One of the suburban LA districts;

which would they choose?

Suburban Los Angeles, absolutely. There's not even any question in that regard. Ventura County is suburban Los Angeles. Orange County would be awkward because of non-contiguity but not terrible. The San Joaquin Valley would make very little sense but it would still be better than a connection with San Jose.

Rank these:

[ ] San Gabriel&Antelope Valleys, includes Lancaster-Palmdale, Santa Clarita, San Gabriel valley including Pasadena, plus Glendale and Burbank.

[ ] City of Los Angeles, includes the city plus enclaves such as Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, and the city of San Fernando, and the area of western LA County (Malibu on north to Ventura County).

[ ] Los Angeles South, includes suburbs to the south of LA and the San Gabriel valleys, on both sides of the city of LA's harbor extension (eg Inglewood, Torrance, Palos Verde, East Los Angeles, Whittier, Long Beach, Compton, Bellflower, etc.

[ ] Silicon Valley-Central Coast;

[ ] San Joaquin Valley;

[ ] Orange County;
71  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 17, 2014, 09:08:57 pm
Just so I understand, I'm prepared to take the following as the revised criteria:



I want to test on a body that has a size comparable to a legislature and which the districts are are of coarsely comparable sizes.  For my model, I have chosen a 100-member House of Representatives, the apportionment of which is shown in the map above.

What I need are districting plans for the 22 states that have more than one representative.

Guidelines:

(1) Don't split counties, with the possible exceptions of Los Angeles, CA and Cook, IL.  New York City may simply be treated as 5 counties, though of course they likely form communities of interest. Split counties should only be combined with other counties to avoid violations of population range.

(2) Strong community of interest.

(3) Coarse equality.  Precise equality is undesirable.  Even equality within 10% of the average for the state is not so good, unless it just happens to match a community of interest.  As a general guideline, try to kKeep districts in the range of 2/3 to 1-1/3 of the quota for the state average quota for states with more than one district (3,394,813).  You may go outside with justification. Examples of justification include keeping counties intact, avoiding out-of range districts elsewhere in the state, and significant unavoidable violations of communities of interest.

(4) Connectivity is not a requirement, at this scale.  Contiguity might be waived in instances where there is a central district that spans across a state. For example, Cape Cod could be linked to western MA to keep the Boston metro intact within population range.

(5) Assume there is some mechanism in place to act as a check of excessively partisan plans.

(6) Plans may be subject to state plebiscites, so be prepared to advocate to the state voters that your plan should be adopted.

(7) Provide 2010 Census populations for the districts.  These will be adjusted based on the apportionment populations which include certain overseas Americans.

(7a) Provide electoral data for the 2008 presidential election for each district.

(7b) Provide each district with should have a name, with the state name as the prefix part of the name. For example, CA San Joaquin Valley.
My comments:

(1) I'm not totally averse to adding Ventura County to part of Los Angeles.  I didn't really like the San Emigdio district.   That part of the city of Los Angeles is immediately adjacent to Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks is somewhat of a problem.  I suspect that whenever Los Angeles County became a single district, that Ventura would have been placed with either Orange County, or portions of Central California.

Proposed new wording:

(3) Districts should be within 2/3 to 1-1/3 of the average quota for states with more than one district (3,994,813)  Range: 2,263,209 to 4,526,417.

Districts in two-district states may range from between 90% and 110% of the state average, if such limits exceed the national limits.

The limits may be exceeded in exceptional cases, with justification.  Examples of justification include keeping counties intact, avoiding out-of range districts elsewhere in the state, and significant unavoidable violations of communities of interest.

Guidance: Districts should be analogous to globs of clay, similar in size, rather than blocks of clay that are carefully carved with a scalpel and weighed on a scale.  Districts should represent communities of interest, when possible.  But population can not be totally ignored.

(7) I don't think I will adjust the population to the apportionment population (overseas population).

(7b) Provide each district with a name.  If the name does not include the name of the state, affix the postal abbreviation of its state.   Example: San Joaquin Valley (CA).

Note: I am prepared to accept names like North Jersey, but will likely include the (NJ) just to provide a consistency with a name such as East Carolina (NC).
72  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the racial distribution of your census tract? on: July 17, 2014, 07:03:06 pm
100% White (rural AUT)
Does the Austrian census (if such exists) show the population by country of birth?
73  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the racial distribution of your census tract? on: July 17, 2014, 01:08:12 pm
USF's precinct (not sure if students are counted as residents in it though, so it may not be representative):

White 53%
Asian 26%
Hispanic 10%
Black 5%
Multiracial 5%
If they lived in student housing (or off-campus as well) they would.  Note that whites in the 18-21 YO range are one of the few groups to be overcounted, because their parents include them at "home" and they are also included as living at school.  If they are in a dorm, there is a different census form, since they aren't considered as part of households.  If they are off campus in an apartment, they aren't treated differently than someone who had just moved to the city before the census.  I'd suspect that off-campus students might be under-reported.  They might ignore mail, and have moved by the time the census tries to count them.
74  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the racial distribution of your census tract? on: July 17, 2014, 01:00:56 pm
4. Post here.

70% Anglo
16% Hispanic
8% Asian
4% Black
2% multiracial.
75  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population of the US by State 1790-2010 on: July 17, 2014, 12:53:46 pm
I made (and finally finished) an excel chart that has all the populations for all the states from 1790 to 2010. I want to share them here, with their percentage growth by the years. I will add states to the census after the state was created.

1790 Census:

1. Virginia: 691,737
2. Pennsylvania: 434,373
3. North Carolina: 393,751
4. Massachusetts: 378,787
5. New York: 340,120
6. Maryland: 319,728
7. South Carolina: 249,073
8. Connecticut: 237,946
9. New Jersey: 184,139
10. New Hampshire: 141,885
11. Georgia: 82,548
12. Rhode Island: 68,825
13. Delaware: 59,096

Non-state territory: 347,206
Total Population: 3,929,214
I would include the population of KY with VA in 1790; WV with VA from 1790-1860; exclude the VA portion of DC from VA from 1800-1840; TN with NC in 1790; and include the population of ME with MA from 1790-1810.

The first census for Vermont was taken in 1791, and is conventionally included with the 1790 national census.  It would be the 14th state, and have a growth rate for 1800.

Kentucky was still part of Virginia in 1790.  It had applied to admission to the Union under the Articles of Confederation, but the Continental Congress, said that there was this constitution-thingy being considered, and that they should wait.  Delegates were elected from Kentucky to the Virginia ratifying convention, and it had its own district (Virginia 2nd among Virginia's 9th).

John Brown, who had served in the Virginia legislature, and been a Virginia delegate to the Continental Congress, was twice elected to Congress from the Kentucky district of Virginia.  When Kentucky became a state in 1792, Virginia's delegation was reduced to 9, and Brown was elected one of Kentucky's initial US Senators.

West Virginia was part of Virginia until 1863.  The Blue Ridge Mountains were typically used as the eastern boundary of congressional districts, so western Virginia districts would include the Shenandoah Valley, and what is now the southwestern tip of Tennessee.

Maine was part of Massachusetts until 1820 (the census was after Maine statehood).  Just prior to statehood, seven of Massachusetts' 20 congressional districts were in Maine.
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