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51  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Official Certificates of Vote on: December 27, 2016, 12:07:33 am
The Certificates of Vote have begun to arrive.

2016 Official Certificates of Votes

The Certificates of Vote are executed by the presidential electors themselves under the terms of the US Constitution that requires them to meet, vote, and send their lists of votes received to Congress (directed to the President of the Senate, who is nowadays also Vice President of the United States).

This is unlike the Certificates of Ascertainment, which are executed by the state governor. Ascertain means to find out definitely; learn with certainty or assurance. Under Article II, Section 1 of the US Constitution, electors are appointed by each State. The Certificate of Ascertainment thus is the chief executive of a State representing who their State appointed as electors, and how they determined who the appointees were. This can then be matched up the Certificates of Vote to make sure that the electors who executed and signed the Certificate of Vote were bona fide.

Alabama 9 for Trump; 9 for Pence. The electors met at the State Capitol in Montgomery. The names of Trump and Prince were printed on the certificate, but the "9" is handwritten.

Arizona 11 for Trump; 11 for Pence. Two certificates were issued, one for President and one for Vice President. It appears that elector Alberto Gutier was getting tired of signing  his name. 6 originals of each certificate were signed. The signature on the Vice Presidential certificate is "Alberto". The electors met in "Phoenix", which is not even noted as being the capital (news reports say the meeting was at the State Capitol).

California 55 for Clinton; 55 for Kaine. Four electors were absent and had to be replaced. Their certificates of replacement were attached. Several familiar names are found among the electors: Janine Bera, Faith Garamendi, Eileen Feinstein Mariano, Ana Huerta, Christine Pelosi, Karen Waters, Susan Eggman, and Olivia Reyes-Becerra. In California, the Democratic nominees for Congress (top Democratic vote-getter under Top 2) name the elector candidates. The electors met in Sacramento, with news reports saying they met at the State Capitol. The certificates had the "55" printed. There were separate signatures for President and Vice President votes, so there were a total of 660 signatures. Both the Certificate of Ascertainment and Certificate of Votes have union bugs on each page.

Colorado 9 for Clinton and Kaine (the certificate did not actually have two separate lists as required by the Constitution). One elector was replaced because he "refused to act". The Certificate of Replacement was only signed by six of the eight remaining electors. Polly Baca and Robert Nemanich, who have sued to not have the state statute with regard to faithless electors enforced, did not sign. They sued in both federal and state courts, but failed to get an injunction. Presumably, the cases are still active. The meeting was in the Governor's Office.

Delaware 3 for Clinton; 3 for Kaine. There is no evidence of involvement of the Secretary of State in the meeting (there is no need under the Constitution, since it is the electors who sign the lists of votes cast. The meeting was in Dover, with news reports saying it was in Legislative Hall (Delaware does not have a building called the "Capitol"). The "3" were handwritten. It appears that they were matching the style of the Republican candidates who were consistently identified as Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence on most certificates. Delaware said their votes were for Hillary R. Clinton and Timothy M. Kaine.

District of Columbia 3 for Clinton; 3 for Kaine. The meeting took place at the John A. Wilson Building, which is the seat of the city/district government. The certificate was witnessed by both the Mayor and the Secretary of the District. The certificate notes that this was the 14th Electoral College. This may be the only certificate that notes the number, but there were other states that verbally noted that it was the 58th Meeting (New Hampshire) or 54th Meeting (Ohio).

Indiana 11 for Trump; 11 for Pence. Indiana uses a standard form for its Certificate of Vote (Form IEC-18). The electors had to print their names, and then sign. In most states, their names were pre-printed, and they just had to sign. The space for a 12th elector is blacked out. Indiana lost its 10th representative and 12th elector in the 2000 Census. Two of the electors do not appear to know how to print their name, with the printed version being almost identical to the signature. If future electors never learn how to use a pen or pencil, will the requirement of a signature on voting rolls be considered a violation of the 26th Amendment? Like in Delaware, the Certificate of Vote appears to be executed only by the electors. The electors met in the chamber of the House of Representatives.

Iowa 6 for Trump; 6 for Pence. The entire certificate was pre-printed, with the electors only adding their signature. The certificate has a State Seal, but no witnesses. Presumably the Secretary of State affixed the seal.

Louisiana 9 for Trump; 9 for Pence. There are separate certificates, one for President and one for Vice President. The electors met in Baton Rouge, with news reports saying it was in the Senate chambers.

Maine 3 for Clinton, 1 for Trump; 3 for Kaine, 1 for Pence. Sam Shapiro, 89, and one of the at-large electors missed a flight from Florida, and had to be replaced. Shapiro, who was Maine state treasurer from 1980 to 1996, lives part time in Florida. He had first served as a presidential elector in 1964 for LBJ, who was the first Democrat to carry Maine since Wilson in 1912. From an interview it appears that he was not unsympathetic to Trump, but would probably vote for Clinton out of party loyalty. Shapiro is Jewish, and said he was uncomfortable with the appointment of Steve Bannon. Shapiro's replacement was Betty Johnson who had been the losing elector candidate for ME-2. Since she replaced Shapiro, she is listed as an at-large elector. Johnson chaired the meeting of the four electors, and she declared David Bright's vote for Sanders as being out of order. He claims that this had been pre-arranged, and his stunned appearance was feigned. On a second vote, he voted for Clinton. About 100 Republican Trump supporters formed a shield to protect the lone Trump elector from a Democratic mob. The electors met in the House of Representative chamber.

Maryland 10 for Clinton; 10 for Kaine. The electors met at the State House.

Massachusetts 11 for Clinton; 11 for Kaine. The Certificate of Ascertainment had the electors in alphabetical order - almost. The Certificate of Vote managed to complete the task. The electors met at the State House.

Michigan 16 for Trump; 16 for Pence. Two electors had their name misspelled on the Certificate of Ascertainment. The State GOP submitted corrections, and the elector names were corrected on the Certificate of Vote. The electors met at the State Capitol.

Minnesota 10 for Clinton; 10 for Pence. The Certificate of Vote has the replacement elector for the faithless Muhammad Abdurrahman, but no mention of the replacement. Governor Dayton promised if there was a replacement he would submit an amended Certificate of Ascertainment. The electors met at the State Capitol.

Mississippi 6 for Trump; 6 for Pence. Charles Evers, 92, was an elector for Trump. Evers, the younger brother of Medgar Evers, had endorsed Trump last Spring. Evers replaced former state chair Bradley White, who was no longer eligible due to his recent appointment as chief of staff of Senator Thad Cochran. There is no official notice of the replacement. The electors met in Jackson. News stories said they met at the State Capitol.

Missouri 10 for Trump; 10 for Pence. One elector was absent and was replaced, though it was barely mentioned in the press. One paper said that a couple of electors said that questions about the eligibility of the elector had been raised. After a lot of searching it appears that the replaced elector is a congressional district director. The Certificate of Vote, not only lists the total of 10 votes for Trump, and 10 votes for Pence, it lists the electors who voted for each. But this list was not corrected. So it says Thomas Loyd Brown voted for Trump and Pence. On the signature line, the replacement elector, Cindy O'Laughlin crossed out Brown's name, and signed, and also corrected the address. The electors met in Jefferson (City of). News reports said it was in the Senate Lounge.

Montana 3 for Trump; 3 for Pence. One elector was absent, and one elector resigned. The replacements were noted on an amended Certificate of Ascertainment on December 19. The certificate of vote makes it appear as if the three electors had met and voted. The electors met in Helena, the state capital. News reports said it was in the Old Supreme Court Chambers.
52  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Official Certificates of Ascertainment on: December 26, 2016, 07:47:49 am
PART II

8 December (Trump 197, Clinton 139)

Arizona 11 for Trump. Gabrielle Giffords and Peterson Zah were Democratic electors.

The Republican electors show:

Lynch, Jane Pierpoint
Morgan, J. Foster

The tint on the Arizona certificate is a relief map of the state on a desert brown. It may be the only certificate with an explicit reference to Mex(ico).

Maine 3 for Clinton, 1 for Trump. The certificate lists the separate vote totals for the congressional districts:

ME-1 Clinton 54.0%, Trump 39.2%, Johnson 4.7%, Stein 1.9%; ME-2 Trump 51.3%, Clinton 41.0%, Johnson 5.5%, Stein 1.9%; for a 12.6% swing between two. There were also 184 votes from Military and Overseas not associated with a congressional district: Clinton 79.1%, Trump 17.6%, Johnson 1.6%, Stein 1.6%.

New York 29 for Clinton. Celebrity Apprentices Electors include Bill Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Bill de Blasio, and Christine Quinn. Donald J. Trump, Jr. was an elector nominee for his father. The certificate for New York is one page, with the canvass by the State Board of Elections on plain paper as an attachment. it lists the vote totals under New York's con-fusion law.

Oregon 7 for Clinton. Oregon, like Washington alphabetizes its elector lists.

9 December (Trump 197, Clinton 148)

Colorado 9 for Clinton. Pete Coors was a Republican elector. In addition to the 22 on-ballot candidates, there were 6 write-in candidates, only one of which who received 9 popular votes. Write-in candidates were associated with the "Green/Democratic", "Unaffiliated/Libertarian", "Unaffiliated/Republican", and "Republican" party.

12 December (Trump 242, Clinton 203)

Alabama 9 for Trump. The state canvass was completed on November 29, but the certificate of ascertainment was not completed until 12 December. It was prepared with a blank for the day, but not the month. How long did it sit in Bentley's in basket?

California 55 for Clinton. The Trump popular votes were credited to both the Republican and American Independent party slates. Under the full faith and credit clause of the US Constitution, these 4.4 million popular votes must be credited to Trump twice. Trump wins the popular vote.

Iowa 6 for Trump. The certificate only lists the party and not the presidential candidates, so it is not obvious that McMullin outpolled Stein in Iowa.

Pennsylvania 20 for Trump. Oddly, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has a State seal. Kentucky has a commonwealth seal, and that from Massachusetts reads "Sigillum Reipublicĉ Massachusettensis" which translates as "Harvard Grads are Pretentious". Pennsylvania is one of few certificates that inform the electors of the meeting on the 19th. Arkansas is the other.

Wisconsin 10 for Trump. Wisconsin appears to use an actual wax seal.

13 December (Trump 242, Clinton 216)

District of Columbia 3 for Clinton. The District numbers their electoral colleges, this being the 14th College of Electors. None of the seven states holding their 58th College of Electors made note of that fact.

Minnesota 10 for Clinton. Minnesota has some of the most stringent and complicated faithless elector laws of any state. They require parties to name a slate of 10 elector candidates and 10 alternate elector candidates. They are also required to pledge to support the presidential and vice presidential candidate of their party. When they meet, they are required to sign their ballot. If they fail to fulfill their pledge, their vote will not be accepted, and they will deemed to have resigned. In the certificate of ascertainment, Governor Dayton asserts:

"I will certify that the electors will serve as electors unless a vacancy occurs in the office of elector before the end of the meeting at which elector votes are cast, in which case a substitute elector will fill the vacancy."

An amended Certificate of Ascertainment was issued on December 19

Minnesota had nine on-ballot candidates and 44 write-in candidates, 16 of whom received no popular votes, 16 others who had less than than 10 popular votes. Among those who received the most were candidates who included Amy Klobuchar, Jesse Ventura, and Condoleeza Rice, as their vice-presidential running mates. The elector candidate for the Jeffrey Ryan Wharton Sr.-Klobuchar ticket was Al Fraken.

Jill Stein's running mate in Minnesota was Howie Hawkins. Ajamu Baraka was a vice-presidential candidate for a write-in candidate who received zero votes.

14 December (Trump 267, Clinton 216)

Missouri 10 for Trump. While most governors are content with an introduction followed by a tally of all electoral votes, Jeremiah Nixon repeated it for each candidate of 12 candidates. "BE IT FURTHER KNOWN, that I, JEREMIAH W. (JAY) NIXON, Governor of the State of Missouri, do hereby certify ..." Either that or Secretary of State Kander knows that Nixon hates being called Jeremiah.

North Carolina 15 for Trump. The North Carolina certificate uses a letterhead with a seal, and apparently did not require the SOS to witness the governor's signing.

15 December (Trump 281, Clinton 216)

TRUMP WINS                              DONALD J. TRUMP ELECTED 45TH PRESIDENT         MIKE PENCE VICE PRESIDENT
Mississippi 6 for Trump. The Constitution Party outpolled the Green Party, and the Prohibition Party was on the ballot.

Nebraska 5 for Trump. The two-way results for three congressional districts were, from west to east: NE-3 Trump 79%:Clinton 21%; NE-1 Trump 61%:Clinton 39%; Trump 51%:Clinton 49%. NE-3 is thus the most Republican electoral unit in the country. Wyoming was 76%:24% for Trump. Nebraska includes the same caveat as Minnesota, that vacancies might occur up to the end of the meeting of the electoral college.

South Dakota 3 for Trump. South Dakota elected Governor Dennis Daugaard, Lieutenant Governor Matt Michels, and Attorney General Marty Jackley. South Dakota joins New York and Vermont as states where the governor certified his own election.

16 December (Trump 286, Clinton 216)

West Virginia 5 for Trump. West Virginia had 34 write-in candidates, including 17 who received zero votes. The 188,794 popular votes for Hillary "We're Going To Put Coal Miners Out of Business (Chopping Motion) Right, Tim (smirk)" Clinton is the fewest for a Democratic candidate in West Virginia since 1916 - and that was before the 19th Amendment. If we assume that a majority of the Clinton voters were female, then we have to go back to the 1892 election to find an election with fewer male Democratic voters.

19 December (Trump 297, Clinton 226)

Maryland 10 for Clinton. Michael Steele, former RNC Chair, was a Republican elector who announced before the general election that he would not vote for Trump or Clinton.

Tennessee 11 for Trump. The electors for each candidate are presented in alphabetical order.

20 December (Trump 300, Clinton 226)

Montana 3 for Trump. This is an amended certificate of ascertainment. The original was apparently created on November 29, but was not posted on the Archivists web site. It includes language about the possibility of electors being replaced before the end of the electors meeting. Two of the three original electors were replaced, so I found the meeting video to figure out what happened. As it turned out, one of the electors was absent, and one who was present resigned. She is a state representative, and apparently someone raised the issue of whether she was eligible or not.

Before that, the Secretary of State, Democrat Linda McCulloch, decided that she would have a public comments section. A lady near the front immediately raised her hand. Montana is not a populous state, and people do not dress up for the legislature, probably reasoning that if it is good enough for getting varmints and rodents out of the house, it is good enough for getting varmints and rodents out of the House. They're also probably neighbors and likely know that everyone has a long gun out in their truck. So a few people speak in favor of Trump, and the elector who would resign went into the audience and brought up her grandson, who appears to be six or eight, and placed a chair for him to stand on so he could reach the microphone. He said something about "Trump had won the electors".
The first Trump supporter, had to keep coming up to adjust the microphone, since nobody knew to speak into the microphone. Then there were a few opponents. Nobody advocated for an alternate candidate, but they were opposed to Trump, and all addressed the electors, who were sitting off to the side. Those favoring Trump spoke to the audience. The lady who raised her hand initially, said she wished that the electors would say why they were voting for Trump, other than that it was the law. She looked like she was 70 or so, and I wonder if she had talked McCulloch into opening the meeting to public comment.

Then the actual meeting began. The roll of electors was taken, and then the elector who was resigning was given the opportunity to resign. She said she was resigning, but was clearly in favor of Trump, and said that it was very important for her grandchildren to witness the election of Trump. She then went at sat with her family. After about a minute, they got up and left, and so her grandchildren never got to see the actual election.

The two alternates who were present filled the two vacancies. After the three electors were sworn in, they conducted the meeting (using a script provided by the SOS).

Minnesota Clinton 20. This is an amended Certificate of Ascertainment (it is at the end of the original PDF). It shows Jill Garcia as an elector, and claims that she 1,367,716 votes. Her position as alternate elector is noted as being vacant. There is no mention of the original elector, who is now officially a non-person.
53  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Official Certificates of Ascertainment on: December 26, 2016, 02:10:19 am
Quote
Certificates of Ascertainment

Each Certificate of Ascertainment lists the:

* names of the Electors chosen by the voters and the number of votes received
* names of all other candidates for Elector and the number of votes received

The Governor of each State prepares seven original Certificates of Ascertainment listing the persons appointed as Electors as soon as possible after the November election. Each Certificate must be signed by the Governor and carry the seal of the State. But, Federal law does not govern the general appearance of the Certificate of Ascertainment.

Click on the links below to view each state's Certificate of Ascertainment from the 2016 Presidential Election.

2016 Certificates of Ascertainment
Dates are when the certificate of ascertainment was executed, and not when they were received by the National Archivist or posted on the National Archives web site.

47 States, plus the District of Columbia are posted. New states are in red.

Kansas, Nevada, and New Hampshire are still out.

17 November (Clinton 4, Trump 0)

Hawaii 4 for Clinton(?) At least they are Democrats. Notice the surnames of the 20 elector candidates.

18 November (Clinton 4, Trump 3)

Wyoming 3 for Trump. Kit Carson was an elector for Johnson.

21 November (Trump 19, Clinton 7)

Georgia 16 for Trump(?). The certificate doesn't indicate a presidential candidate or party. Also Baoky Vu supposedly resigned in August. Notice Nathan Deal's signature (compare to Rick Scott's)

Vermont 3 for Clinton. Governor Shumlin is an elector for Clinton. The certificate misspells De La Fuente's name.

22 November (Trump 56, Clinton 7)

Florida 29 for Trump. 5 of the 6 write-in candidates received fewer votes than the 29 elector candidates they submitted. They probably didn't want to travel to Tallahassee to vote.

Louisiana 8 for Trump(?). No indication of party or candidate. Louisiana electors are chosen by district. What is the origin of the governor's name? His brothers have middle names of Millard and H., but it almost appears that his name is John-bel. Any relation to John Bell Hood, which would never appear as John Hood.

23 November (Trump 60, Clinton 10)

Delaware 3 for Clinton. Where is Caeser Rodney when you need him? The certificate only required 28 days to get from Dover to Washington. Only the Republicans and Democrats had named electors. Everyone else had Elector 1, Elector 2, and Elector 3.

Idaho 4 for Trump(?). The certificate indicates the party, but not the candidate. The Trump electors are from Hayden, Kuna, Melba, and Parma. Darrell Castle was not the nominee of the Idaho Constitution Party. Idaho omits the Vice-Presidential candidate. Idaho is the only state to correctly date their certificate.

28 November (Trump 67, Clinton 10)

Oklahoma 7 for Trump. Oklahoma chooses electors by congressional district.

29 November (Trump 79, Clinton 15)

New Mexico 5 for Clinton(?). The certificate just reiterates the total number of popular votes and the electors candidates associated with the presidential and vice-presidential candidates, but nowhere indicates which of them had been appointed elector.

North Dakota 3 for Trump. North Dakota left off the party for Trump, alone. North Dakota also reported its write-in votes as a collective total.

South Carolina 9 for Trump. Witnessed by "Her Excellency Our Governor".

30 November (Trump 123, Clinton 22)

Connecticut 7 for Clinton. Yale grads are even more pretentious than Harvard grads. Not only is the State Seal in Latin, it is oval shaped so as to better contain Connecticutensis. Connecticut spelled out the vote totals: Clinton led Trump by eight hundred ninety seven thousand, five hundred twenty four to six hundred seventy three thousand, one hundred ninety seven, a difference of two hundred twenty four thousand, three hundred twenty seven.

Texas 38 for Trump. One of the Valdivia electors is Mindy Lynn Mister-Moleski (wonders how often the syllables get transposed). Thomas Trump is an elector for Castle. Nine Lee electors have a surname of Lee. All 13 write-in candidates received at least 38 votes.

Utah 6 for Trump. Five political parties had candidates and slates of electors. three independent candidates had slates of electors, but De La Fuente only had four electors. Two independent candidates, including Jill Stein had no electors. Two write-in candidates had electors, and thirteen  write-in candidates had no electors. This may have hurt them since collectively they only received 54 popular votes.

1 December (Trump 134, Clinton 22)

Alaska 3 for Trump. The certificate was issued from Anchorage. Alaska electors usually meet in Anchorage rather than the ceremonial capital. The certificate was signed by both the Governor and the Lieutenant Government, since Alaska does not have a Secretary of State. One of the Trump electors is Sean Parnell, former governor. The certificate misspells the first name of Roque De La Fuente as Rogue. Perhaps they were channeling Sarah Palin.

Kentucky 8 for Trump. The certificate includes the (mailing) addresses of the elector candidates for on-ballot candidates. Republicans and Democrats, but not others are associate with districts. Three pairs of the McMullin electors appear to be couples. Had he won, could we have seem political romance between David and Rebecca? The certificate misspells Poplar Lane. Maybe the McMullin operatives couldn't understand the Kentuckians accent, "thats wright popular liek thuh treeuh". There were 24 write-in candidates. Ten of them received eight or more votes. 14 received fewer than 8 votes (they had more elector candidates than they had voters), including two who received zero votes, the ultimate in faithless electors.

2 December (Trump 167, Clinton 33)

Arkansas 6 for Trump. Addresses of the Trump electors are provided. One of the Clinton advisors is a women named Flowers. It turns out that she is a state representative, Vivian rather than Jennifer.

Indiana 11 for Trump. Indiana uses State Form 40655 / (R5/8-12) / IEC-20. R5/8-12 may be Revision 5, August 2012. The certificate was signed on December 2, but not published by the Archivist until December 15. The governor may have been busy with other matters. Indiana only had three on-ballot candidates. The 15 write-in candidates did not have to name 11 electors, though some did, and some named none. All eleven elector candidates for Koltikoff were from Michigan. Cherunda Fox who named 11 elector candidates received one popular vote.

Massachusetts 11 for Clinton. This is written with a script font. The candidates are listed as "Clinton and Kaine", "Trump and Pence", "Johnson and Weld", "Stein and Baraka". I suspect someone asked, "isn't that a bit informal?" The clerks preparing the certificate must have misunderstood, and thought, "hmm ... this is the font I used for my wedding invitations"

Michigan 16 for Trump. Addresses are given for the 16 electors. The certified margin is 10,704 votes. The Johnson (Libertarian) vote is 16.081 times as large; the Stein (Green) vote is 4.825 times as large; the Castle (U.S. Taxpayers) is 1.508 times as large; the McMullin (write-in) is 0.764 times as large. 5 of the 6 write-in candidates received more votes than they had electors. Cherunda Fox only got 10 votes for the 16 electors.

6 December (Trump 167, Clinton 66)

Illinois 20 for Clinton. The certificate begins with

TO ALL WHOM THESE PRESENTS SHALL COME, GREETING;

One elector is John R Daley, who may be the grandson of Richard J Daley (the mayor), and nephew of Richard M Daley (former mayor of Chicago), and nephew of William M Daley (Obama's Chief of Staff and Bill Clinton's Secretary of Commerce). There does not appear to be an obvious (to me) large number of Polish surnames.

Virginia 13 for Clinton. I had commented earlier that the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania had a State Seal, while Kentucky had a Commonwealth Seal,  and  Massachusettensis had a Sigillum Reipublicae. Virginia does not say what kind of seal it has, but does include the state motto, and a picture of John Wilkes Booth. It proclaims that the electors for "Hillary Rodham Clinton and Tim Kaine" had been appointed. Most other states refer to the candidates as "Clinton and Kaine", or "Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine", or "Hillary Rodham Clinton and Timothy Michael Kaine". The governor Terence R. McAuliffe must be on a first name basis with Tim.

7 December (Trump 185, Clinton 96)

New Jersey 14 for Clinton. Chris Christie's father, Wilbur J. Christie (83 YO) was an elector for Trump.

Ohio 18 for Trump. The results are in numerical order highest to least. At the end of the second page is a seal and the signatures of Kasich and (SOS) Husted. The third page continues with additional candidates, and at the bottom of the fourth page is a seal and the signatures of Kasich and Husted.

Rhode Island 4 for Clinton. In the past, the Rhode Island Certificate of Ascertainment has included the state canvass for all offices in Rhode Island. This year, they only include the presidential results, and invite those interested in more details to their web site. A Clinton elector is Herbert Claiborne Pell. If this is Herbert Claiborne Pell IV he is the husband of Michelle Kwan.

Washington 12 for Clinton. Electors are linked from a spreadsheet, and includes their mailing addresses. Some curiosities: The Republicans alphabetized their electors. All 12 Green electors are from Seattle. Only one Constitution elector is from west of the Cascades (Marysviile). Four pairs of Socialist Workers electors share an address, are apparently male and female, but do not have a surname in common.

Continued in Part II
54  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Official Certificates of Ascertainment on: December 26, 2016, 01:30:16 am
California 55 for Clinton. The Trump popular votes were credited to both the Republican and American Independent party slates. Under the full faith and credit clause of the US Constitution, these 4.4 million popular votes must be credited to Trump twice. Trump wins the popular vote.
Is that supposed to be a joke?
Before the election, the SOS sent out a memo saying that they would figure out how to handle the situation if and when it mattered (i.e. they recognized the deficiency in their statutes, but didn't think Trump would win). They also insisted on including instructions that voters could not follow.

California doesn't actually have a statute that says how to convert marks on ballot papers into votes for elector candidates.
55  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: December 24, 2016, 11:39:20 pm
Is there any set date when the county estimates come out?

They come out in March, I don't know if there's a public date yet.
It appears to be March 23, with an embargoed release on March 21.
56  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: December 24, 2016, 11:38:20 pm
Question:

The 2020 Census is done on April 1, 2020 (and slightly before and after that).

But the results + apportionment of CD's and EV's are only announced in December 2020.

So, are the new EV numbers already used for the 2020 Presidential election, or only for 2024 ?
The number of representatives take effect with the term beginning on January 3, 2023. If there is a special election in 2022 to fill a vacancy in the house, the old boundaries will be used, even if a primary for the new boundaries is held at the same time. Some states with odd-year legislative elections may use the new census data for 2011 elections.

Based on the 2000 census data, the population of the Bush states and the Gore states was extremely close. Had the 2000 apportion been used, Bush would have won the electoral vote based on winning the greater number of states carried and the two senate-based electors. This would have been true even if thousands of representatives had been apportioned.

The electoral vote was as close as it was, only because it was based on 10+ year old data.
57  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Likely next US districts after 2020 on: December 23, 2016, 11:06:57 am
It was argued before the courts that it didn't properly represent the African American community, and the Republicans lost.

What do you mean by the word "community"?

Provide some examples.
58  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Likely next US districts after 2020 on: December 23, 2016, 11:03:37 am
It is certainly not the job of a federal court to represent the interests of the people of Virginia.

They have a legislature for that.

Mildred Loving might disagree with you on that one, Jim.
Nyvin is the one who is making the argument in favor of discrimination on the basis of race.

But you seem to be focusing on the state rather than the issue of redistricting. I will rephrase my statement:

It is certainly not the job of a federal court to represent the interests of the people of Virginia, or any other State, in the matter of redistricting. They each have legislatures to do that.

See Growe v. Emison, 507 U.S. 25 (1993) and Perry v Perez 565 U.S. _____ (2012)
59  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Likely next US districts after 2020 on: December 22, 2016, 05:43:39 am

And then 4th circuit judges appointed special masters to redraw the 3rd district, and while they did that, they stole the 4th district.

Maybe the Courts enacted the map because *gasp* it better represents the interests of the people of Virginia?  Maybe the court picked the more fair map?   Crazy thought huh? 
It is certainly not the job of a federal court to represent the interests of the people of Virginia.

They have a legislature for that.
60  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Likely next US districts after 2020 on: December 22, 2016, 05:37:34 am
What happened? Virginia Democrats, and a single cuckservative, ended the special session! So when you say the VA legislature could not draw a map, it is because Democrats made it so by a 21-20 vote.

The Senate has 40 members, it was a 21-19 vote.
The vote to adjourn was 20-20, the Lieutenant Governor broke the tie.
61  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Likely next US districts after 2020 on: December 22, 2016, 05:32:51 am
How about NC and VA?  Is 11R/3D viable in NC, or will the legislature have to concede the new seat?  I would presume 8R/3D is no longer viable in VA with what is happening in Richmond and outer NOVA.  If it meets court standards, Republicans would probably want to draw the second black opportunity seat from Richmond to Woodbridge along I-95 to shore up VA-10 and VA-07.

Of course not. Another 8/3 map could and would have been drawn if the Democrats had not adjourned the special session to do so this year. First order of business if a Republican is elected in 2017 would be to take back the stolen 4th district. The 2001 iteration of the 3rd and 4th districts were already cleared by the 4th circuit court in 2004.

They didn't adjourn a special session (Huh) the map was struck down by the courts, and then the VA legislature couldn't draw a map (due to GOP incompetence, not the dems...) and the courts ended up drawing the maps.
The special session met, and some story was concocted about McAuliffe making a recess appointment, they flipped one senator, and the Democratic Lieutenant Governor broke a tie for the Senate to adjourn.

The board of elections was the formal defendant. It declined to submit a map, and then endorsed the plan drawn by the special master, who went way out of bounds.
62  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: December 22, 2016, 05:25:08 am
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, AZ-10, and FL-29 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, CA-54, VA-12, and MN-8.

An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives the same projection as the one above, with changes only in the order of the bubble seats.
Wait, IL might lose 2 CDs?
Illinois was entitled to 18.043 representatives in 2010, and is projected at 16.710 in 2020.

For 2000 and 2010, larger states with a fraction less than 0.5 were being rounded upward. But it appears that this tendency may be balancing out. Arizona and Florida are increasing their growth, so that a projection that assumes a constant rate of increase will underestimate the population, so AZ-10 and FL-29 will likely pass IL-17 by 2020.

For MT-2 or AL-7 etc. to pass IL-17 would require an even larger decrease for Illinois. Illinois has been negative for the past 3 years, and the rate of decline is increasing .

So it appears to be in the realm of possibility, but perhaps not likelihood.
63  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why are the "WOW" counties in Wisconsin conservative? on: December 21, 2016, 11:30:38 pm
In 2016,

Clinton carried the city of Milwaukee: 188,687:45,422 (81%:19%, of two way vote)
She carried the remainder of the county: 100,134:80,676 (55%:45%)
Trump carried Waukesha County: 79,224:142,543 (36%:64%), Ozaukee (40%:60%), and Washington (29%:71%).

So it is simply a pattern of the city of Milwaukee being extremely leftwing, and the remainder of the county moderating that somewhat (the city had about 56% of the county vote).

Were Milwaukee more centrally located, rather than on the shoreline the metropolitan area would not be as bipolar.
But there are plenty of cities on a shoreline. Is Miami as polarized? Is San Diego? Is Boston?
Why don't you create maps to demonstrate your claims?

There is one liberal suburb and some others that are swingy and more moderate. The rest of the suburbs are full on conservative/Republican and that wouldn't change if it was more centrally located, just that the conservative areas would surround the city instead of being only on 3 sides.
The point you are failing to comprehend is that the inner suburbs are forced to be west of Milwaukee, but are still in the county, and by the time you get to Waukesha you are in outer suburbs. Washington and Ozaukee are somewhat remote and don't have that many people. With font sizes proportional to population it would be more like:

WOW

Someone put the letters together, and then someone else re-arranged them, and a third said:

Like WOW man, that is so cool, like they don't understand someone as elite as me.


And yet not all are west, they are west and north and south before the outer ring burbs. You're also not from the area so the Eastern half of Waukesha and the Southern have of Ozaukee have a lot of people in them, burbs push out farther, then you have people in Washington and the rest of the other two counties that basically think the people in the burbs are the same evil satan type people as the city. All the burbs in the county aren't really considered inner ring either. I think you feel you know as much but really don't since you don't live here, the same as I wouldn't know as much from anywhere else.
I assume you mean suburbs?

Milwaukee was 80.6% for Clinton. The highest I could find for Trump was Muskego. Clearly, it is Milwaukee that is extreme.

To the north(east) of Milwaukee, the small suburbs are about 30% Trump, except Shorewood is 18%, and River Hills is 46% Trump. This area is actually east of Milwaukee.

Then you are in Ozaukee County, and Mequon is 56% Trump, which is the lowest of any of the townships (or residuals) adjacent to Milwaukee County.

To the south along the lake you have: St. Francis 43%, Cudahy 47%, South Milwaukee 50%, Oak Creek 54%. St. Francis and Cudahy are east of Milwaukee, but you have a clear gradient going south.

West Milwaukee 32%, Wauwatosa 38%, and West Allis 48% are the closest suburbs to Milwaukee, and had their peak population in 1970, and then had declines before stabilizing. This indicates they were built out by then, and declined as family size declined and the children left home. The children either bought houses to the west in Waukesha County, or moved to Madison, Minneapolis, Chicago, or Houston. This indicates they are clearly inner suburbs.

Greenfield 52%, Greendale 52%, Hales Corner 58%, and Franklin 57% are southwest of Milwaukee. They did not have the sharp decline after 1970, so these are less inner suburbs. Greenfield has an interstate running down the middle, so it likely has more shopping centers and apartments.

Franklin and Oak Creek are more like the suburbs outside the county, so I think you should start promoting the meme of the Scary WWOOF.

Along the eastern edge of Waukesha County, you have Menomonee Falls 60%, Brookfield 60%, New Berlin 62%, and Muskego 69% continuing both the western trend and slight southerly trend.

The city of Waukesha is slightly lower 56%, (note when I wrote by the time you get to Waukesha, I was referring to the county).

But the second tier of towns (Lisbon 71%, City of Pewaukee 67%, Town of Waukesha 68%, and Vernon 73%) are a simple continuation of the east to west trend.
64  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Official Certificates of Ascertainment on: December 21, 2016, 05:38:54 pm
PART II

8 December (Trump 197, Clinton 115)

Arizona 11 for Trump. Gabrielle Giffords and Peterson Zah were Democratic electors.

The Republican electors show:

Lynch, Jane Pierpoint
Morgan, J. Foster

The tint on the Arizona certificate is a relief map of the state on a desert brown. It may be the only certificate with an explicit reference to Mex(ico).

Maine 3 for Clinton, 1 for Trump. The certificate lists the separate vote totals for the congressional districts:

ME-1 Clinton 54.0%, Trump 39.2%, Johnson 4.7%, Stein 1.9%; ME-2 Trump 51.3%, Clinton 41.0%, Johnson 5.5%, Stein 1.9%; for a 12.6% swing between two. There were also 184 votes from Military and Overseas not associated with a congressional district: Clinton 79.1%, Trump 17.6%, Johnson 1.6%, Stein 1.6%.

New York 29 for Clinton. Celebrity Apprentices Electors include Bill Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Bill de Blasio, and Christine Quinn. Donald J. Trump, Jr. was an elector nominee for his father. The certificate for New York is one page, with the canvass by the State Board of Elections on plain paper as an attachment. it lists the vote totals under New York's con-fusion law.

9 December (Trump 197, Clinton 124)

Colorado 9 for Clinton. Pete Coors was a Republican elector. In addition to the 22 on-ballot candidates, there were 6 write-in candidates, only one of which who received 9 popular votes. Write-in candidates were associated with the "Green/Democratic", "Unaffiliated/Libertarian", "Unaffiliated/Republican", and "Republican" party.

12 December (Trump 242, Clinton 179)

Alabama 9 for Trump. The state canvass was completed on November 29, but the certificate of ascertainment was not completed until 12 December. It was prepared with a blank for the day, but not the month. How long did it sit in Bentley's in basket?

California 55 for Clinton. The Trump popular votes were credited to both the Republican and American Independent party slates. Under the full faith and credit clause of the US Constitution, these 4.4 million popular votes must be credited to Trump twice. Trump wins the popular vote.

Iowa 6 for Trump. The certificate only lists the party and not the presidential candidates, so it is not obvious that McMullin outpolled Stein in Iowa.

Pennsylvania 20 for Trump. Oddly, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has a State seal. Kentucky has a commonwealth seal, and that from Massachusetts reads "Sigillum Reipublicĉ Massachusettensis" which translates as "Harvard Grads are Pretentious". Pennsylvania is one of few certificates that inform the electors of the meeting on the 19th. Arkansas is the other.

Wisconsin 10 for Trump. Wisconsin appears to use an actual wax seal.

13 December (Trump 242, Clinton 192)

District of Columbia 3 for Clinton. The District numbers their electoral colleges, this being the 14th College of Electors. None of the seven states holding their 58th College of Electors made note of that fact.

Minnesota 10 for Clinton. Minnesota has some of the most stringent and complicated faithless elector laws of any state. They require parties to name a slate of 10 elector candidates and 10 alternate elector candidates. They are also required to pledge to support the presidential and vice presidential candidate of their party. When they meet, they are required to sign their ballot. If they fail to fulfill their pledge, their vote will not be accepted, and they will deemed to have resigned. In the certificate of ascertainment, Governor Dayton asserts:

"I will certify that the electors will serve as electors unless a vacancy occurs in the office of elector before the end of the meeting at which elector votes are cast, in which case a substitute elector will fill the vacancy."

Minnesota had nine on-ballot candidates and 44 write-in candidates, 16 of whom received no popular votes, 16 others who had less than than 10 popular votes. Among those who received the most were candidates who included Amy Klobuchar, Jesse Ventura, and Condoleeza Rice, as their vice-presidential running mates. The elector candidate for the Jeffrey Ryan Wharton Sr.-Klobuchar ticket was Al Fraken.

Jill Stein's running mate in Minnesota was Howie Hawkins. Ajamu Baraka was a vice-presidential candidate for a write-in candidate who received zero votes.

14 December (Trump 267, Clinton 192)

Missouri 10 for Trump. While most governors are content with an introduction followed by a tally of all electoral votes, Jeremiah Nixon repeated it for each candidate of 12 candidates. "BE IT FURTHER KNOWN, that I, JEREMIAH W. (JAY) NIXON, Governor of the State of Missouri, do hereby certify ..." Either that or Secretary of State Kander knows that Nixon hates being called Jeremiah.

North Carolina 15 for Trump. The North Carolina certificate uses a letterhead with a seal, and apparently did not require the SOS to witness the governor's signing.

15 December (Trump 281, Clinton 192)

TRUMP WINS                              DONALD J. TRUMP ELECTED 45TH PRESIDENT         MIKE PENCE VICE PRESIDENT
Mississippi 6 for Trump. The Constitution Party outpolled the Green Party, and the Prohibition Party was on the ballot.

Nebraska 5 for Trump. The two-way results for three congressional districts were, from west to east: NE-3 Trump 79%:Clinton 21%; NE-1 Trump 61%:Clinton 39%; Trump 51%:Clinton 49%. NE-3 is thus the most Republican electoral unit in the country. Wyoming was 76%:24% for Trump. Nebraska includes the same caveat as Minnesota, that vacancies might occur up to the end of the meeting of the electoral college.

South Dakota 3 for Trump. South Dakota elected Governor Dennis Daugaard, Lieutenant Governor Matt Michels, and Attorney General Marty Jackley. South Dakota joins New York and Vermont as states where the governor certified his own election.

16 December (Trump 286, Clinton 192)

West Virginia 5 for Trump. West Virginia had 34 write-in candidates, including 17 who received zero votes. The 188,794 popular votes for Hillary "We're Going To Put Coal Miners Out of Business (Chopping Motion) Right, Tim (smirk)" Clinton is the fewest for a Democratic candidate in West Virginia since 1916 - and that was before the 19th Amendment. If we assume that a majority of the Clinton voters were female, then we have to go back to the 1892 election to find an election with fewer male Democratic voters.

19 December (Trump 297, Clinton 203)

Maryland 10 for Clinton. Michael Steele, former RNC Chair, was a Republican elector who announced before the general election that he would not vote for Trump or Clinton.

Tennessee 11 for Trump. The electors for each candidate are presented in alphabetical order.
65  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Official Certificates of Ascertainment on: December 21, 2016, 05:05:06 pm
Quote
Certificates of Ascertainment

Each Certificate of Ascertainment lists the:

* names of the Electors chosen by the voters and the number of votes received
* names of all other candidates for Elector and the number of votes received

The Governor of each State prepares seven original Certificates of Ascertainment listing the persons appointed as Electors as soon as possible after the November election. Each Certificate must be signed by the Governor and carry the seal of the State. But, Federal law does not govern the general appearance of the Certificate of Ascertainment.

Click on the links below to view each state's Certificate of Ascertainment from the 2016 Presidential Election.

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2016/certificates-of-ascertainment.html
[/quote]
Dates are when the certificate of ascertainment was executed, and not when they were received by the National Archivist or posted on the National Archives web site.

44 States, plus the District of Columbia are posted. New states are in red.

17 November (Clinton 4, Trump 0)

Hawaii 4 for Clinton(?) At least they are Democrats. Notice the surnames of the 20 elector candidates.

18 November (Clinton 4, Trump 3)

Wyoming 3 for Trump. Kit Carson was an elector for Johnson.

21 November (Trump 19, Clinton 7)

Georgia 16 for Trump(?). The certificate doesn't indicate a presidential candidate or party. Also Baoky Vu supposedly resigned in August. Notice Nathan Deal's signature (compare to Rick Scott's)

Vermont 3 for Clinton. Governor Shumlin is an elector for Clinton. The certificate misspells De La Fuente's name.

22 November (Trump 56, Clinton 7)

Florida 29 for Trump. 5 of the 6 write-in candidates received fewer votes than the 29 elector candidates they submitted. They probably didn't want to travel to Tallahassee to vote.

Louisiana 8 for Trump(?). No indication of party or candidate. Louisiana electors are chosen by district. What is the origin of the governor's name? His brothers have middle names of Millard and H., but it almost appears that his name is John-bel. Any relation to John Bell Hood, which would never appear as John Hood.

23 November (Trump 60, Clinton 10)

Delaware 3 for Clinton. Where is Caeser Rodney when you need him? The certificate only required 28 days to get from Dover to Washington. Only the Republicans and Democrats had named electors. Everyone else had Elector 1, Elector 2, and Elector 3.

Idaho 4 for Trump(?). The certificate indicates the party, but not the candidate. The Trump electors are from Hayden, Kuna, Melba, and Parma. Darrell Castle was not the nominee of the Idaho Constitution Party. Idaho omits the Vice-Presidential candidate. Idaho is the only state to correctly date their certificate.

28 November (Trump 67, Clinton 10)

Oklahoma 7 for Trump. Oklahoma chooses electors by congressional district.

29 November (Trump 79, Clinton 15)

New Mexico 5 for Clinton(?). The certificate just reiterates the total number of popular votes and the electors candidates associated with the presidential and vice-presidential candidates, but nowhere indicates which of them had been appointed elector.

North Dakota 3 for Trump. North Dakota left off the party for Trump, alone. North Dakota also reported its write-in votes as a collective total.

South Carolina 9 for Trump. Witnessed by "Her Excellency Our Governor".

30 November (Trump 123, Clinton 22)

Connecticut 7 for Clinton. Yale grads are even more pretentious than Harvard grads. Not only is the State Seal in Latin, it is oval shaped so as to better contain Connecticutensis. Connecticut spelled out the vote totals: Clinton led Trump by eight hundred ninety seven thousand, five hundred twenty four to six hundred seventy three thousand, one hundred ninety seven, a difference of two hundred twenty four thousand, three hundred twenty seven.

Texas 38 for Trump. One of the Valdivia electors is Mindy Lynn Mister-Moleski (wonders how often the syllables get transposed). Thomas Trump is an elector for Castle. Nine Lee electors have a surname of Lee. All 13 write-in candidates received at least 38 votes.

Utah 6 for Trump. Five political parties had candidates and slates of electors. three independent candidates had slates of electors, but De La Fuente only had four electors. Two independent candidates, including Jill Stein had no electors. Two write-in candidates had electors, and thirteen  write-in candidates had no electors. This may have hurt them since collectively they only received 54 popular votes.

1 December (Trump 134, Clinton 22)

Alaska 3 for Trump. The certificate was issued from Anchorage. Alaska electors usually meet in Anchorage rather than the ceremonial capital. The certificate was signed by both the Governor and the Lieutenant Government, since Alaska does not have a Secretary of State. One of the Trump electors is Sean Parnell, former governor. The certificate misspells the first name of Roque De La Fuente as Rogue. Perhaps they were channeling Sarah Palin.

Kentucky 8 for Trump. The certificate includes the (mailing) addresses of the elector candidates for on-ballot candidates. Republicans and Democrats, but not others are associate with districts. Three pairs of the McMullin electors appear to be couples. Had he won, could we have seem political romance between David and Rebecca? The certificate misspells Poplar Lane. Maybe the McMullin operatives couldn't understand the Kentuckians accent, "thats wright popular liek thuh treeuh". There were 24 write-in candidates. Ten of them received eight or more votes. 14 received fewer than 8 votes (they had more elector candidates than they had voters), including two who received zero votes, the ultimate in faithless electors.

2 December (Trump 167, Clinton 33)

Arkansas 6 for Trump. Addresses of the Trump electors are provided. One of the Clinton advisors is a women named Flowers. It turns out that she is a state representative, Vivian rather than Jennifer.

Indiana 11 for Trump. Indiana uses State Form 40655 / (R5/8-12) / IEC-20. R5/8-12 may be Revision 5, August 2012. The certificate was signed on December 2, but not published by the Archivist until December 15. The governor may have been busy with other matters. Indiana only had three on-ballot candidates. The 15 write-in candidates did not have to name 11 electors, though some did, and some named none. All eleven elector candidates for Koltikoff were from Michigan. Cherunda Fox who named 11 elector candidates received one popular vote.

Massachusetts 11 for Clinton. This is written with a script font. The candidates are listed as "Clinton and Kaine", "Trump and Pence", "Johnson and Weld", "Stein and Baraka". I suspect someone asked, "isn't that a bit informal?" The clerks preparing the certificate must have misunderstood, and thought, "hmm ... this is the font I used for my wedding invitations"

Michigan 16 for Trump. Addresses are given for the 16 electors. The certified margin is 10,704 votes. The Johnson (Libertarian) vote is 16.081 times as large; the Stein (Green) vote is 4.825 times as large; the Castle (U.S. Taxpayers) is 1.508 times as large; the McMullin (write-in) is 0.764 times as large. 5 of the 6 write-in candidates received more votes than they had electors. Cherunda Fox only got 10 votes for the 16 electors.

6 December (Trump 167, Clinton 53)

Illinois 20 for Clinton. The certificate begins with

TO ALL WHOM THESE PRESENTS SHALL COME, GREETING;

One elector is John R Daley, who may be the grandson of Richard J Daley (the mayor), and nephew of Richard M Daley (former mayor of Chicago), and nephew of William M Daley (Obama's Chief of Staff and Bill Clinton's Secretary of Commerce). There does not appear to be an obvious (to me) large number of Polish surnames.

7 December (Trump 185, Clinton 83)

New Jersey 14 for Clinton. Chris Christie's father, Wilbur J. Christie (83 YO) was an elector for Trump.

Ohio 18 for Trump. The results are in numerical order highest to least. At the end of the second page is a seal and the signatures of Kasich and (SOS) Husted. The third page continues with additional candidates, and at the bottom of the fourth page is a seal and the signatures of Kasich and Husted.

Rhode Island 4 for Clinton. In the past, the Rhode Island Certificate of Ascertainment has included the state canvass for all offices in Rhode Island. This year, they only include the presidential results, and invite those interested in more details to their web site. A Clinton elector is Herbert Claiborne Pell. If this is Herbert Claiborne Pell IV he is the husband of Michelle Kwan.

Washington 12 for Clinton. Electors are linked from a spreadsheet, and includes their mailing addresses. Some curiosities: The Republicans alphabetized their electors. All 12 Green electors are from Seattle. Only one Constitution elector is from west of the Cascades (Marysviile). Four pairs of Socialist Workers electors share an address, are apparently male and female, but do not have a surname in common.

Continued in Part II
66  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: December 21, 2016, 02:03:15 pm
It appears that traditional growth areas in the West are having accelerated growth, with both the 1st and 2nd derivatives positive in WA, OR, NV, AZ, UT, ID, MT and CO.

The most dramatic effect has been in Oregon which has dawdled along below 6 seats for some time. They made the 2020 projection for a gain in 2015; and actually would have achieved it in 2016.

Based on the 2016 vintage estimates:

2011: CO+1, FL+1, NC+1, TX+3, VA+1; AL-1; IL-1; MI-1, MN-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1.
Actual change: NC+1; MN-1

2012: CO+1, FL+1, NC+1, TX+3, VA+1; AL-1; IL-1, MI-1, MN-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1.
Actual change: NC+1; MN-1

2013: CO+1, FL+1, NC+1, TX+3, VA+1; AL=0; IL-1, MI-1,  MN-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1, WV-1.
Actual change: NC+1; MN-1

West Virginia has turned negative and declined for the past four years. It, in effect, dropped faster than Alabama.

2014: CO+1, FL+1, NC+1, TX+3, VA+1; AL=0; IL-1, MI-1,  MN-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1, WV-1.
Actual change: NC+1, TX+1; MN-1, PA-1

2015: AZ+1, CA+1, CO+1, FL+1, NC+1, OR+1, TX+3, VA=0; AL-1, IL-1, MI-1,  MN-1, NY-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1, WV-1.
Actual change: FL+1, NC+1, TX+1; IL-1, MN-1, PA-1

Accelerating growth in the West added three seats in Arizona, California, and Oregon, at the expense of Alabama, New York, and Virginia. In the case of Alabama and Virginia it was a case of being caught by faster gainers, while New York has had a substantial decline in growth (and its projected population for 2020).

2016: AZ+1, CO+1, FL+2, NC+1, OR+1, TX+3; CA=0, VA=0;  AL-1, IL-1, MI-1,  MN-1, NY-1, OH-1, PA-1, RI-1, WV-1.
Actual change: FL+1, NC+1, OR+1, TX+1; IL-1, MI-1, MN-1, PA-1

Accelerating growth in Florida gives it a second seat by the end of the decade while the growth rate in California is declining. Oregon actually gains its 6th seat, one year after being projected to gain a seat.
67  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: December 21, 2016, 01:20:15 pm
Hmmm... could the oil crash put TX-39 in doubt again by 2020?  And I'm surprised MT is holding up so well given the collapse in ND.  VA-12 now seems quite unlikely, especially with Republicans taking control of the federal budget.  IL losing 2 CDs would really be something.
There is little reason for Montana's population to collapse.  Montana's growth isn't one-tenth as dependent on oil as North Dakota's.  Besides, the portion of eastern Montana near North Dakota is sparsely populated.  Its oil patch cities are few and far between - Sidney and perhaps Glendive, but even categorizing Glendive as an oil patch city is a stretch. 
Williston is a long way from anywhere. The closet city with 100,000+ cities is Regina, which is closer than Billings and Fargo. Regina is also the closest capital.

There is so little population base in the area that Minot and Bismarck have also had considerable growth this decade. You might be able to commute from Minot at least for a few months until you found an apartment or mobile home closer.
68  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: December 21, 2016, 12:45:27 pm
So, California might lose a congressional district?
States get a proportional share of the representatives. A state that grows at the decennial national growth rate (10% for 2000-2010, 7.6% estimated for 2010-2020) will maintain its representation - subject to collective rounding.

California can go from 52.5/435 to 53.5/435 of the population with an increase of 1.9% in population relative to that of the country. So a 9.5% increase would add one representative, a 5.7% increase would subtract one representative.

But you also have to consider rounding. California can spread any error around among 53 districts. For the past two decades the overall distribution has been favorable to rounding up. California was entitled to less than 52.5 districts, but got a favorable rounding. In 2010, CA, FL, MN, TX, and WA all got favorable rounding.

By 2020, it is estimated that only FL will get a favorable rounding.

So California might get rounded from 52.3 to 53 one census; and from 52.7 to 52 the next.

Another factor is that the Census Bureau revises its estimates.

In 2015, the estimate of the 2015 population was 39.144M.

In 2016, the estimate of the 2015 population was 38.994M.
In 2016, the estimate of the 2016 population was 39.250M.

Based on the 2015 and 2016 vintage estimates California only grew 0.27%.
Based on 2016 vintage estimates the increase was 0.66%.

While growth has slowed, it was not as severe as suggested by two different vintages.
69  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why are the "WOW" counties in Wisconsin conservative? on: December 21, 2016, 04:32:17 am
In 2016,

Clinton carried the city of Milwaukee: 188,687:45,422 (81%:19%, of two way vote)
She carried the remainder of the county: 100,134:80,676 (55%:45%)
Trump carried Waukesha County: 79,224:142,543 (36%:64%), Ozaukee (40%:60%), and Washington (29%:71%).

So it is simply a pattern of the city of Milwaukee being extremely leftwing, and the remainder of the county moderating that somewhat (the city had about 56% of the county vote).

Were Milwaukee more centrally located, rather than on the shoreline the metropolitan area would not be as bipolar.
But there are plenty of cities on a shoreline. Is Miami as polarized? Is San Diego? Is Boston?
Why don't you create maps to demonstrate your claims?

There is one liberal suburb and some others that are swingy and more moderate. The rest of the suburbs are full on conservative/Republican and that wouldn't change if it was more centrally located, just that the conservative areas would surround the city instead of being only on 3 sides.
The point you are failing to comprehend is that the inner suburbs are forced to be west of Milwaukee, but are still in the county, and by the time you get to Waukesha you are in outer suburbs. Washington and Ozaukee are somewhat remote and don't have that many people. With font sizes proportional to population it would be more like:

WOW

Someone put the letters together, and then someone else re-arranged them, and a third said:

Like WOW man, that is so cool, like they don't understand someone as elite as me.
70  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: December 21, 2016, 04:02:24 am
Through 2016 there have been the following changes.

Florida +1 to 28.
North Carolina +1 to 14
Oregon +1 to 6
Texas +1 to 37

Illinois -1 to 17
Michigan -1 to 13
Minnesota -1 to 7
Pennsylvania -1 to 17

Were this Australia, a redistribution would have occurred, but this would have been in 2015 or earlier. There were no changes this year.

Projected additional changes by 2020:

Arizona +1 to 10
Colorado +1 to 8
Florida +1 (more) to 29 *** This is a change ***
Texas +2 to 39

Alabama -1 to 6
New York -1 to 26
Ohio -1 to 15
Rhode Island -1 to 1
West Virginia -1 to 2

California 0 to 53 *** This is a change ***
71  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: December 21, 2016, 03:14:04 am
ND down to 0.1% growth, from 2.3% in the previous year.
Shocked
Smiley
72  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 electoral college voting **live commentary thread** on: December 21, 2016, 03:11:25 am
If someone refused to cast a ballot or cast a blank ballot you presumably would have no problem with their replacement, since their action is in violation of the 12th Amendment.

Well that's happened before actually, in DC in 2000, and it was accepted.
Did the District have a law regarding faithless electors? In the past, there have been vacancies when an elector did not show up, and there were no state laws to permit replacement.

Congress likely does not have any power to force a State (or D.C.) to participate.

Colorado permits voters to appoint the electors. Colorado could lose representation in Congress if voters are disenfranchised. The Democratic Party required the electors to pledge that they would vote for the presidential candidates of the party. Had they not executed that pledge, they would not have been chosen electors. If there is no surety that they would vote for Clinton and Kaine then voters would have been less likely to vote for them. And if they were permitted to disregard their pledge, then they would in effect be disenfranchising voters who expected them to vote for Clinton and Kaine.

I mean, I think you make a good argument why maybe the electoral college should be abolished or the electoral votes should be automatic without electors, but that doesn't make these faithless elector laws any less unconstitutional as it stands.
There is model legislation offered by the NCSL with regard to faithless electors. Surely it would not be facially unconstitutional.

The only possible injury that the faithless electors might suffer is that they do not have an opportunity to be elected on a honest representation of their intentions. States should permit slates of uncommitted electors, who do not list presidential and vice presidential candidates.
73  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Admits Even He Thought He was Going to Lose on: December 20, 2016, 05:45:26 am

He thought he'd lose, and he did. By about 3 million votes at last count.



And black won this game by 2 points. Roll Eyes

I mean this is a stupid analogy for two reasons but it helps to actually be correct in your analogy - Black only has a one pawn advantage (Q+2R+4p=23 vs Q+R+B+5p=22); plus the King is generally considered to have an infinite value since checkmate ends the game; so therefore White does have the advantage in the game if you count by points.
But Russians excel at chess.
74  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 electoral college voting **live commentary thread** on: December 20, 2016, 04:30:34 am
30th Colorado College of Electors
75  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 electoral college voting **live commentary thread** on: December 20, 2016, 04:24:14 am
Pretty silly to even have people as electors at all though if they are required to vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged. Why not just eliminate the middleman?

I mean, I get that the literal answer to that in Minnesota's case is because it wouldn't be constitutional, but the whole "you must vote this way, or else" thing is something you'd expect from a tinhorn dictator.

Agreed. I think that's why there's serious doubt about the Constitutionality of these faithless elector laws. It seems pretty clear that the legislatures get to determine the manner of selection of the electors, but what is the point if they have to vote a certain way?
What is the point of determining the manner of election, if the manner of election is based on votes for the presidential candidates, but the electors don't vote for those candidates?

You're describing what we've de facto morphed the system into, not the way in which it was designed. It wasn't intended to just be a rubber stamp like it is now. Most states didn't even have a popular vote initially.
By 1796 (third election) electors were already being elected by parties. By 1800, 137 of 138 electors voted for either Jefferson and Burr; or Adams and Pinckney.

This resulted in a tie between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr, which went to the House of Representatives where the lame duck Federalists tried to scheme to elect Burr as President. It was realized that the initial system was not working and the 12th Amendment was added. It recognized that electors were being chosen based on parties.

It is false that most states did not have a popular vote initially. In the first election 6 of the 10 states chose their electors by popular vote, including the Big 3 most associated with the Revolution, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. 64% of the Washington electors were popularly elected.

Yes, the 12th Amendment was designed to accommodate the reality that political parties were an inescapable part of the electoral process. But that amendment didn't change the basic setup which was that the electoral college was designed to select living, breathing human beings to cast the electoral votes. The state gets to choose the method of appointing its electors, and having the parties choose their slate ensures that the electors will almost always vote for the party nominee who wins the state's electoral vote, but the state is still limited to selecting the person, not the person's vote. And once the state has appointed its electors, the Constitution doesn't give a state the power to un-appoint them if they do something the state doesn't like any more than it gave the state the power to recall Senators.

I agree that combining the Constitutionally mandated electoral college with a statewide popular vote allows for absurd results, but such is the reality until the electoral college is repealed.
Colorado statute says a vacancy results if an elector is deceased, absent, or refuses to act.

If an elector dies or is absent, they are not un-appointed. They are replaced.

If an elector was present, but proceeded to ride a bicycle around the chamber, presumably you would have no problem with their replacement. If someone refused to cast a ballot or cast a blank ballot you presumably would have no problem with their replacement, since their action is in violation of the 12th Amendment.

So we are down to a quite narrow issue whether voting in contravention of state law, and their oath of office is a refusal to act.

Colorado permits voters to appoint the electors. Colorado could lose representation in Congress if voters are disenfranchised. The Democratic Party required the electors to pledge that they would vote for the presidential candidates of the party. Had they not executed that pledge, they would not have been chosen electors. If there is no surety that they would vote for Clinton and Kaine then voters would have been less likely to vote for them. And if they were permitted to disregard their pledge, then they would in effect be disenfranchising voters who expected them to vote for Clinton and Kaine.

Senators are federal officers. Presidential electors are state officers. It is within the power of the State to remove or recall state officials who fail to comply with state laws.

Congress in January, will have an opportunity to count or not count the electoral votes from Colorado.
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