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51  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Michigan: The urban-rural divide writ large on: February 19, 2017, 01:53:30 pm

 
 

As some of you know, the Muon2 redistricting rules include a component that rewards drawing districts that are either nested within metro areas, or outside them, rather than including both. For larger metro areas, that metric tends to drive where the lines on the map go.

So, in drawing up Michigan after the 2020 census, putting aside exorcising gerrymandering, the CDs tend to hew more closely to following the urban-rural divide than they do now.  And consequently, the partisan stats of the map below highlights well the urban cosmopolitans going one way, and the rest of the nation going another, at least when it comes to white voters.

The PVI chart below is organized based on the swing to Trump from Romney. Putting aside the Macomb County anomaly (big metro area white voters swinging to Trump to the same degree as their rural and smaller city compatriots), one can see that the swings to Trump that are smallest (or away from him), are within the zone of the big three metro areas (Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Lansing).  Everything outside that zone, swung massively to Trump (plus Macomb County).

As to the partisan effect of this map, as compared to the existing Pub gerrymander, it depends whether you think Trump is the future, Trump is half the future, or Trump is an anomaly, and in due course, his impact on politics will disappear as if he never existed.

If Trump is the future, then the Dems take the hit for the seat Michigan loses (the old MI-09, which disappeared, and is now the number for the old MI-14),  while the GOP drops MI-11 to the Dems, but picks up from them MI-05 (who knew that a Flint-Saginaw based CD would now be a Pub CD?!). 

If the future is Trump lite, with the PVI figures using the Cook method of average the PVIs for the last two election cycles, then each party shares the loss of Michigans CD, each losing half a seat. MI-04 and 11 go swing from safe Pub (for a net loss of one seat), but for the Pubs MI-05 goes swing from Dem, leaving each party with a half seat loss (the Dems lose MI-09, with MI-05 going swing, but MI-11 and 4 go swing to them in exchange, also netting out to half a seat loss for the Dems). 

If Trump is an anomaly, and a mere vagrant on the waters of the public square, then the map does more what would be expected: the Pubs lose two seats (MI-04 as the Lansing seat is created for the Dems, rather than being gerrymandered away, plus MI-11 as that gerrymandered object d'art is also tossed out), for a net gain of 1 Dem seat as the the old Dem MI-09  disappears from the map.

You choose as to what the future may hold. My guess, is Trump lite, lite, when it comes to more upscale precincts that used to have a Pub lean, and Trump lite for the balance, leaving the Pubs with a true swing seat with MI-11, with MI-04 tilt Dem, but within striking distance, and MI-05 lean Dem (with the incumbent needing to work hard, and have political skill to avoid becoming vulnerable in what is potentially a highly volatile CD now).

I would shift MI-2 eastward to include all of Saginaw and the thumb. The Michigan and Huron shoreline  are distinct and it is no longer possible to create two districts in Northern Michigan.

This would mean coming north into Flint rather than west into Ann Arbor to get the extra half a district.
52  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What is the Deep South ? on: February 19, 2017, 12:43:14 pm
Pensacola, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville preclude Northern Florida from being Deep South.
53  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 15, 2017, 11:17:07 pm
Kenosha has a population equivalent to 2.897 districts and will have three districts.

Racine (3.402), Walworth (1.780), and Rock (2.791) collectively have a population equivalent to 7.972 districts, and will have 8 districts (3 in Racine, 1 in Walworth, 2 in Rock, one spanning the Racine-Walworth border and one spanning the Walworth-Rock border.



The three districts in Kenosha will be undersized (0.966). The city of Kenosha is entitled to 1.727 districts and will be divided, with one district in the city, and one extending outside. The area attached to the north was chosen to balance population between districts. The third district with the rest of the county may have a bit of a Chicago exurb vibe, but that was not deliberate.

The district wholly within Kenosha was based on (1) containing the areas of significant minority population; and (2) the southern part of the city, since the other district will extend into Somers town to the north of the city. The areas of minority concentration (wards 12-16, 19-20) are generally on  a north-south axis, a bit inland from the shoreline. The remainder of the district forms a U-loop around the minority core.

34. Kenosha city (wards 3-6, 12-28,  0.961) 0.961. VAP%: 71W, 16H, 10B, O2, A1

35. Kenosha city (wards 1-2, 7-11, 29-34, 0.767), Paris town, and Somers town. 0.960

36. Brighton town, Bristol town, Bristol village, Genoa City village, Paddock Lake village, Pleasant Prairie village, Randall town, Salem town, Silver Lake village, Twin Lakes village, and Wheatland town. 0.977.

The three assembly districts in Kenosha County will form a senate district.

Racine has a population equivalent to 3.402 districts, and has three districts in the county, and part of a 4th that will extend into Walworth County. The city of  Racine is entitled to 1.373 districts, and will have to be divided. Mountain Pleasant village and the other suburban areas get to enough for two districts. The area around Burlington in the west end of the county, has the population needed for the district that extends into Walworth County. The remainder of the county may have more of a Milwaukee orientation, but was selected based on compactness and population balance.

As with Kenosha, the core of the Racine district is the minority area. The district was then extended to the north to reach the city limits and North Bay and Wind Point, which are included for overall population balance among the districts in the county. Wards with a significant minority population 35-50% were added to reach the necessary population. The minority population is generally smallest in the western part of the city. There are two stronger minority wards in the extreme southwestern corner of the city that could not be reached. The district is compact and avoids splitting the minority population, and the remnant of the city has good connectivity to Pleasant Point.

37. Racine city (wards 1-14, 16-21, 23-25, 33-34  0.963), North Bay village, and Wind Point village. 0.997 VAP% (Racine only) 55W, 23B, 20H, 2O, 1A.

38. Racine city (wards 15, 22, 26-32, 0.410), Elmwood Park village, Mount Pleasant village, and Sturtevant village. 0.996

39. Caledonia village, Norway town, Raymond town, Union Grove village, Waterford town, Waterford village, and Yorkville town. 0.979

The three assembly districts entirely in Racine County will form a senate district.

40. Racine: Burlington city, Burlington town, Dover town, Rochester village. Walworth: ... 1.015.



Walworth County is entitled to 1.780 districts. One district will be entirely in the county; one district will extend into Racine County, and another will extend into Rock County. That is, the surplus will be divided between two districts. The population within Walworth County of the two inter-county districts complements the surplus of the other two counties. In addition, placement of the Walworth portion of the districts must match the district in the the adjacent counties.

The Racine County portion of District 40 is focused on Burlington on the extreme western end of that county. This is matched by including towns on the eastern boundary of Walworth County. The Rock County portion of district 42 is based in Beloit, and the district extends into the southwestern corner of Walworth County.

This leaves District 41 as a compact district based around the county seat of Elkhorn and the most populous city of Whitewater. An additional consideration was to not unduly split the area around Geneva Lake.

40. Racine: Burlington city, Burlington town, Dover town, Rochester village (0.430) Walworth: Bloomfield town, Burlington city, East Troy town, East Troy village, Genoa City village, Lake Geneva city, Linn town, Lyons town, Mukwonago village, and Spring Prairie town (0.585) 1.015

41. Darien town, Darien village, Delavan city, Delavan town, Elkhorn city, Geneva town, La Grange town, Lafayette town, Richmond town, Sugar Creek town, Troy town, Whitewater city, and Whitewater town. 0.998

42. Walworth: Fontana-on-Geneva Lake village, Sharon town, Sharon village, Walworth town, Walworth village, and Williams Bay village (0.196) Rock: ... (). 0.982

The three assembly districts that include part of Walworth County form a senate district. All of the county is in the senate district, and it has a majority of the district population, which somewhat makes up for the division among three assembly districts.



Rock County is entitled to 2.791 districts. It will have two whole districts, and a third district that will extend into Walworth County. Janesville (1.107) is slightly larger than a district and will have to divided. To keep all of Janesville in one senate district, the small surplus will be placed in the other district wholly in Rock County. This then places Beloit into the district that extends into Walworth County. While it be nice to include Beloit town with Beloit city, this does not work out population wise.

42. Walworth: Fontana-on-Geneva Lake village, Sharon town, Sharon village, Walworth town, Walworth village, and Williams Bay village (0.196) Rock: Beloit city, Bradford town, Clinton town, Clinton village, Johnstown town, La Prairie town, and Turtle town (0.786) 0.982

43. Janesville city (all but 5, 1.007) 1.007

The map is kind of messy. The annexed areas on the south and west are in AD-43. The annexed areas to the northeast are counted within Ward 5 and are part of AD-44.

44. Avon town, Beloit town, Brodhead city, Center town, Edgerton city, Evansville city, Footville village, Fulton town, Harmony town, Janesville city (ward 5, 0.100), Janesville town, Lima town, Magnolia town, Milton city, Milton town, Newark town, Orfordville village, Plymouth town, Porter town, Rock town, Spring Valley town, and Union town. 0.998

Districts 43 and 44, along with a district in Green and Dane county will form a senate district.
54  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The Missouri Miracle and a Celebration of the Muon2 Redistricting Rules on: February 15, 2017, 10:51:33 pm
Should Kansas City be treated as a county since it has its own election board, or alternatively should it be treated as if it is entirely in Jackson County?



I don't think so. I don't know about MO, but in many states where cities can span multiple counties statute makes it clear that the portion in each county is treated separately. Aurora IL is in four counties and has its own electoral board for three of those counties. Even so, precincts cannot span county lines. It makes the most sense to treat district lines the same way.
Can precinct boundaries span city lines?


If the city does not constitute an election jurisdiction, like a township, then the precinct lines can cross muni lines. They do in my township.

I think that the district entirely in the UCC should include all of Kansas City.

If an objective set of rules prevents this, my subjective opinion is that there is a problem with objective set of rules.

Geographically for chops to make sense there should be a clear hierarchy of units, each of which spans the entire space of the preceding unit. For example in WI we are using

UCCs (as applicable)
Counties
Cities/Villages/Townships
Wards/VTDs

There are cities and villages that cross county lines, but WI says they aggregate their votes by parts in separate counties. For electoral and redistricting purposes a city in two counties acts as two separate cities, each wholly in a county.
M.R.S. 999.999 Redistricting Counties

Before December 31 in the year ending in 0, the legislative body of each municipality that encompasses territory in more than one county may designate that for redistricting purposes, the municipality is to be treated as lying entirely in the county which contains the largest share of the population at the previous census. If the legislative body does not make such designation, the parts of the municipality that lie in different counties shall be treated as separate municipalities for redistricting purposes.

-------

Not that Wards/VTDs should not be used. But larger cities may/must designate neighborhoods. The use of wards in Ohio was really a mess.

For the purposes of our WI exercise on the other thread, do we know which munis passed such a resolution? Do we know to what extent the WI leg followed those resolutions? My fear is that since what you quote is a statute, if the remap is also by statute then the leg can overrule the munis.
That was a hypothetical Missouri statute. Clearly it was the intent to keep Kansas City whole, so we know the KC city council passed it.

If a state were to adopt a systematic way of redistricting, it might be inclined to continue to do so.
55  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The Missouri Miracle and a Celebration of the Muon2 Redistricting Rules on: February 14, 2017, 12:51:40 pm
Should Kansas City be treated as a county since it has its own election board, or alternatively should it be treated as if it is entirely in Jackson County?


I don't think so. I don't know about MO, but in many states where cities can span multiple counties statute makes it clear that the portion in each county is treated separately. Aurora IL is in four counties and has its own electoral board for three of those counties. Even so, precincts cannot span county lines. It makes the most sense to treat district lines the same way.
Can precinct boundaries span city lines?


If the city does not constitute an election jurisdiction, like a township, then the precinct lines can cross muni lines. They do in my township.

I think that the district entirely in the UCC should include all of Kansas City.

If an objective set of rules prevents this, my subjective opinion is that there is a problem with objective set of rules.

Geographically for chops to make sense there should be a clear hierarchy of units, each of which spans the entire space of the preceding unit. For example in WI we are using

UCCs (as applicable)
Counties
Cities/Villages/Townships
Wards/VTDs

There are cities and villages that cross county lines, but WI says they aggregate their votes by parts in separate counties. For electoral and redistricting purposes a city in two counties acts as two separate cities, each wholly in a county.
M.R.S. 999.999 Redistricting Counties

Before December 31 in the year ending in 0, the legislative body of each municipality that encompasses territory in more than one county may designate that for redistricting purposes, the municipality is to be treated as lying entirely in the county which contains the largest share of the population at the previous census. If the legislative body does not make such designation, the parts of the municipality that lie in different counties shall be treated as separate municipalities for redistricting purposes.

-------

Not that Wards/VTDs should not be used. But larger cities may/must designate neighborhoods. The use of wards in Ohio was really a mess.
56  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 14, 2017, 05:11:44 am
Dodge (1.545) and Jefferson (1.457), together 3.002, are entitled to 3 districts, one in each county, and one spanning the border. Watertown, the largest city, is on the county line, and is logically the center of the cross-border district, while Beaver Dam and Fort Atkinson-Jefferson are the logical centers of the two.

It turns out that the districts are pretty much stripes. There really isn't that much east-west displacement between the centers to justify a different configuration.



31.(0.997) Dodge: Beaver Dam city, Beaver Dam town, Brownsville village, Burnett town, Calamus town, Chester town, Fox Lake city, Fox Lake town, Horicon city, Juneau city, Kekoskee village, Leroy town, Lomira town, Lomira village, Mayville city, Oak Grove town, Randolph village, Trenton town, Waupun city, Westford town, and Williamstown town.

32. (1.020) Dodge: Ashippun town, Clyman town, Clyman village, Columbus city, Elba town, Emmet town, Hartford city, Herman town, Hubbard town, Hustisford town, Hustisford village, Iron Ridge village,
Lebanon town, Lowell town, Lowell village, Neosho village, Portland town, Reeseville village, Rubicon town, Shields town, Theresa town, Theresa village, and Watertown city. Jefferson: Ixonia town, Lac La Belle village, Milford town, Waterloo city, Waterloo town, Watertown city, and Watertown town.

33. (0.985) Jefferson: Aztalan town, Cambridge village, Cold Spring town, Concord town, Farmington town, Fort Atkinson city, Hebron town, Jefferson city, Jefferson town, Johnson Creek village, Koshkonong town, Lake Mills city, Lake Mills town, Oakland town, Palmyra town, Palmyra village, Sullivan town, Sullivan village, Sumner town, and Whitewater city.

Population balance could be improved by moving Milford town from AD-32 to AD-33, but this would split the border crossing, and isolate Waterloo from Watertown.
57  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The Missouri Miracle and a Celebration of the Muon2 Redistricting Rules on: February 14, 2017, 02:38:23 am
Should Kansas City be treated as a county since it has its own election board, or alternatively should it be treated as if it is entirely in Jackson County?


I don't think so. I don't know about MO, but in many states where cities can span multiple counties statute makes it clear that the portion in each county is treated separately. Aurora IL is in four counties and has its own electoral board for three of those counties. Even so, precincts cannot span county lines. It makes the most sense to treat district lines the same way.
Can precinct boundaries span city lines?


If the city does not constitute an election jurisdiction, like a township, then the precinct lines can cross muni lines. They do in my township.

I think that the district entirely in the UCC should include all of Kansas City.

If an objective set of rules prevents this, my subjective opinion is that there is a problem with objective set of rules.
58  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 14, 2017, 02:01:39 am
This is the split of Waukesha city and New Berlin cities.



21. Waukesha city (minus wards 1, 2, 4, 23, 25, 26, and city included in VTD T-6 Waukesha town) 1.008

22. Pewaukee village, Pewaukee city, Waukesha city (wards 1, 2, 4, 23, 25, 26), Waukesha town, Vernon town, Big Bend village, Mukwonago village. 1.035

23. Brookfield city, Brookfield town, Elm Grove village, Butler village, and New Berlin city (wards 3, 8, 9, and 10). 1.007

24. New Berlin city (less wards 3, 8, 9, 10) and Muskego city. 1.004
59  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 13, 2017, 10:22:41 pm
I discovered that the census boundaries for VTDs do not match the city and village boundaries.

What does DRA do?  For example, what does it show for the population of the city of Waukesha (38 wards)?

I believe DRA used the boundaries for cities and wards as they were defined going into the 2010 Census. In 2011 and 2012 the jurisdictions in WI redrew the wards, and one complaint about themap is that the wards were done after, rather than before the legislative districts making moot the need to conform districts to wards. The Census regularly updates its files to match boundaries needed for the ACS and estimates programs.

For example I went to the city of Waukesha's site to get the current council map and identified the wards in each district. I then matched those up with the wards I wanted in each district. Higher numbered wards generally referred to those in areas annexed since 2011-12.

For Milwaukee city I'm about a third of the way through the matching process. Many wards are just renumbered from the previous decade, but there are many cut and recombined wards, too. I'm adjusting my AD boundaries as I go so that the DRA boundaries for 2008 will coincide with current ward boundaries from 2012. This is the master map of Milwaukee's current wards.
Ugh!

The Census bureau only produces data for VTD's for PL 94-171. The VTD cutoff was in 2007 or 2008, with that for city limits sometime later.

In general, I'm attempting to produce a map that reflects political boundaries as of the 2010 Census, in  order to see what the political complexion would have been at that time.

In the case of a city or village that is wholly within a district, I'm willing to treat it as not changing boundaries. For example, Mukwonago village is in AD-21 in my map, while Mukwonago town is in AD-25. For political results, I'm willing to use all wards in the two entities regardless whether the wards have changed for different elections. Does this make sense?

In the case of Waukesha city, it appears that newly annexed areas have been given different wards is because when the county board of supervisors districts were established, a district boundary was established on the town-city boundary. SD-15 includes the Town of Waukesha (as of 2010-11)?, and extends into the Town of Genesee and Town of Vernon. As Waukesha city has annexed since 2010, the annexed areas remain in SD-15, and were given new ward numbers. SD-15 now includes wards 39-49 of Waukesha city.

So for my boundary between SD-21 and SD-22, I will identify Waukesha city VTD's as well as portions of Waukesha town VTD's that were in Waukesha city.

There are 767 persons in Waukesha town VTD's that were in Waukesha city in 2010.

So there must also be 984 persons in Pewaukee city VTD's that were in Waukesha city in 2010.


60  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 13, 2017, 01:53:32 pm
I discovered that the census boundaries for VTDs do not match the city and village boundaries.

What does DRA do?  For example, what does it show for the population of the city of Waukesha (38 wards)?
61  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The Missouri Miracle and a Celebration of the Muon2 Redistricting Rules on: February 13, 2017, 01:47:21 pm
Should Kansas City be treated as a county since it has its own election board, or alternatively should it be treated as if it is entirely in Jackson County?


I don't think so. I don't know about MO, but in many states where cities can span multiple counties statute makes it clear that the portion in each county is treated separately. Aurora IL is in four counties and has its own electoral board for three of those counties. Even so, precincts cannot span county lines. It makes the most sense to treat district lines the same way.
Can precinct boundaries span city lines?


62  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The Missouri Miracle and a Celebration of the Muon2 Redistricting Rules on: February 13, 2017, 03:33:23 am
On RRH, somebody asserted that the Muon2 rules as they applied to Missouri, the Show Me state, would make a harsh of things. So I drew a map for 2021 based on the projected county populations calculated by the census bureau. The map speaks for itself. Rather than a map miss-mash hash, it is precisely the opposite a thing of beauty, and in fact, it just so happens that the population distribution results in the near miracle, that St. Charles County need not be chopped at all, with the other two St. Louis urban cluster CDs perfected nested in the balance of the urban cluster zone. The KC urban cluster is almost as good, and only requires a non-macro chop of Jackson County.

I am quite sure this map minimizes chops, and it looks good from an erosity standpoint to boot. Maybe there is a map with a better erosity score, with no more chops, but I strongly tend to doubt it. I worked hard to make this map beautiful. The equality score is bad, but the benefit is the almost perfect CD nesting within the two urban clusters. Muon2 should make Exhibit A to his white paper. ☺

Speaking of the equality metric, is it just in interplay with the erosity score, or does in play with the chop score?  Hopefully just the former.  I think it poor public policy to encourage chops over de minimus population variances.  And do subunit chops just affect the erosity score? Are you allowed more than one subunit chop per county per CD? I probably have been told the answers before, but need to be reminded, because Im old.

I think Muon2 and I are on the same page as to bridge chops now, but I am studying his definitions. On that one, I know Im right. Yes, I do. Are bridge chops just banned, or do they just count as a penalty point now, Muon2? Probably the latter is preferable, assuming you cannot be persuaded to go the preference route on anything.

Thats all for now. Well done, Muon2.  I have a reasonable hope that some day you will become a famous man over this. Yes I do.  Your life has a meaning and a purpose, and without that, in my view, one does not have much at all. Count yourself fortunate. ☺







Should Kansas City be treated as a county since it has its own election board, or alternatively should it be treated as if it is entirely in Jackson County?
63  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 13, 2017, 03:25:29 am
Do you have the ward numbers for Milwaukee?
1   145
1   146
1   184
1   185
1   186
1   187
1   188
1   189
1   200
1   216
1   217
1   218
1   219
1   220
1   221
1   222
1   223
1   224
1   225
1   226
1   227
1   228
1   229
1   230
1   231
1   232
1   233
1   234
1   256
1   257
2   64
2   135
2   138
2   142
2   143
2   144
2   182
2   183
2   235
2   236
2   241
2   242
2   243
2   244
2   245
2   246
2   247
2   248
2   249
2   289
2   290
2   291
2   292
2   293
2   294
2   295
2   296
3   63
3   132
3   133
3   134
3   136
3   137
3   139
3   140
3   141
3   201
3   202
3   203
3   204
3   205
3   206
3   207
3   208
3   209
3   210
3   211
3   212
3   213
3   214
3   215
4   16
4   41
4   48
4   60
4   61
4   62
4   65
4   95
4   96
4   97
4   98
4   99
4   100
4   101
4   102
4   103
4   104
4   105
4   106
4   107
4   108
4   109
4   110
4   111
4   112
4   297
4   298
4   311
4   312
4   313
4   314
5   66
5   67
5   68
5   69
5   70
5   71
5   72
5   73
5   126
5   127
5   128
5   129
5   130
5   131
5   181
5   275
5   276
5   277
5   278
5   279
5   280
5   281
5   282
5   299
5   300
5   301
5   302
5   303
5   304
5   305
5   306
5   307
5   308
5   309
5   310
6   4
6   5
6   6
6   11
6   12
6   13
6   14
6   15
6   17
6   18
6   19
6   114
6   115
6   116
6   117
6   122
6   164
6   165
6   166
6   167
6   168
6   169
6   170
6   171
6   172
6   173
6   174
6   175
6   176
6   177
6   178
6   179
6   180
7   7
7   9
7   10
7   27
7   29
7   30
7   31
7   32
7   33
7   34
7   35
7   36
7   37
7   81
7   82
7   84
7   85
7   86
7   87
7   89
7   90
7   91
7   92
7   93
7   94
7   113
7   118
7   119
7   120
7   121
7   123
7   124
7   125
8   8
8   20
8   21
8   22
8   23
8   24
8   147
8   148
8   149
8   150
8   151
8   152
8   153
8   154
8   156
8   157
8   158
8   159
8   160
8   161
8   162
8   163
8   258
9   25
9   26
9   28
9   74
9   75
9   76
9   77
9   78
9   79
9   80
9   83
9   155
9   259
9   260
9   261
9   263
9   264
9   265
9   266
9   267
9   268
9   269
9   270
9   271
9   272
9   273
12   54
12   55
12   56
12   57
12   58
12   59
12   237
12   238
12   239
12   240
12   250
12   251
12   252
12   253
12   254
12   255
13   190
13   191
13   192
13   193
13   194
13   195
13   196
13   197
13   198
13   199
15   88
15   283
15   284
15   285
15   286
15   287
15   288
16   38
16   39
16   40
16   42
16   43
16   44
16   45
16   46
16   47
16   49
16   50
16   51
16   52
16   53
17   1
17   2
17   3
64  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US Religion by County, 1950 Census on: February 13, 2017, 02:05:11 am
I can make guesses. The primary one is that because the Southern Baptists remained a distinct body, they were not as influenced by the theological liberalism that affected the Methodist Episcopal Church even before the northern and southern wings (as well as the Methodist Protestant Church) formally reunited in 1939 as the Methodist Church. The South being theologically conservative is not a new phenomenon.
It might be worthwhile to see how the different bodies were aggregated. The 1952 survey doesn't appear to include the AME Church or National Baptist Convention.

Maybe the 1906-1936 data sets should be mapped to see if a trend can be identified, or there are differences between 1952 data set and those generated by the Census Bureau.
65  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 12, 2017, 11:08:30 pm
Waukesha (6.787) and Washington (2.296) are together (9.083) entitled to nine districts, six and most of a seventh in Waukesha, and the remainder of the seventh, and two whole districts in Washington.





In general, I tried to base the districts on the original towns (PLSS townships). Cities and villages tend to have irregular boundaries, and are often enclosed by a town. Where cities or villages were on a district boundary I did cross the town boundary to get better population ballance. I will refer to the original towns as townships, since some have converted to cities or villages (Menominee, Muskego, New Berlin, and Pewaukee)

Waukesha city has a population of 1.231 and must be split and is centered on the Pewaukee-Waukesha township line, so I treated Pewaukee-Waukesha as a single township, and I identified an area with a population equivalent to two districts.

Along the Milwaukee County line I could not find any combinations that would permit a single-member area other than the Menominee plus Lisbon townships. The remaining three townships along the eastern edge have a population equivalent to two districts, and are more suburban in character.

Finally, I identified the area in a Washington County that was closest in population to the needed share of the cross-county boundary district.

21 and 22: Pewaukee, Waukesha, Vernon townships plus Mukwonago village; includes Pewaukee city, Pewaukee village, Wuakesha city, and Big Bend village; Pewaukee town is dissolved. (2.043) I hope to create one district wholly within Waukesha city, so the remaining district will be a partial doughnut by lopping off some of the annexation tentacles.

23 and 24. Brookfield, New Berlin, and Muskego townships, plus Butler village; includes Brookfield city, Elm Grove Village, New Berlin city, and Muskego city; Muskego and New Berlin towns are dissolved, and Brookfield town is largely so. (2.011). This will require a split of New Berlin city, the second largest political subdivision in the county. The division will be fairly north within the city, so that one the districts can be largely identified with 23. Brookfield and 24. New Berlin and Muskego.

25. Delafield, Genessee, Mukwonago, Ottawa, and Eagle townships, plus Chenequa village, less Mukwonago village; includes Delafield city, Nashotah village, Hartland village, Wales village, North Prairie village, Dousman village, and Eagle village (1.013).

26. Menominee and Lisbon townships, less Butler village; includes Menominee Falls village, Lannon village, Sussex village, and an unpopulated bit of Milwaukee city; Menominee town is dissolved (0.999).

27. In Waukesha County: Oconomowoc, Merton, and Summit townships, less Chenequa village; includes Merton village, Oconomowoc city, Oconomowoc Lake village, and Lac La Belle village. In Washington County: Erin and Richfield townships, including Richfield village; Richfield town has been dissolved. (0.983).

West Bend has a population equivalent to 0.541 districts, and extends into three surrounding townships to reach 0.771. Adding townships in the northern part of the county, completes the areas.

28. Farmington, Trenton, Kewaskum, Barton, West Bend, Wayne, and Addison townships; includes West Bend city, Newburg city, and Kewaskum village. (1.029).

29 is the remainder of the county, linking the most suburban area of Germantown with the second center of Hartford.

29. Hartford, Polk, Jackson, and Germantown townships; includes Hartford city, Slinger village, Jackson village, Germantown village, and an unpopulated bit of Milwaukee city; Germantown town is largely dissolved. (1.005)

Senate districts are chosen to eliminate the two city chops, and have one district contain the whole of Washington County, and two districts wholly in Waukesha County.

AD 21, 22, and 25 (Waukesha city, and western Waukesha county)
AD 23, 24, and 26 (Eastern tier Waukesha county).
AD 27, 28, and 29 (Washington County and northwestern Waukesha county).
66  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Monroe County, FL (The Keys) on: February 12, 2017, 09:35:19 pm
The Florida Keys are hard to pin down.  What best explains their peculiar voting patterns?

In 2008, Monroe was the Florida county to vote against the state's constitutional gay marriage ban, and did so with 52%.  Obama carried it that year, also with 52%, not that much.  In 2012, Obama carried the county by an even slimmer percentage than he carried Florida.  Then in 2016, Trump won there.  I would have expected such a pro-gay county to be more consistently in favor of Democratic candidates.  Yes, I'm aware that there are pro-SSM Republicans, but Republicans who publicly backed SSM were very rare in 2008.

Are the Keys just full of libertarian-types or pro-business gays or something?
Monroe County ≠ Key West.

Clinton carried the 10 Key West precincts by 64:36 (two-way vote).

Trump carried the remainder of the county by 39:61

Key West had 30% of the total vote, the remainder of the county 70% resulting in as 46:54 win for Trump.

The vote generall becomes more Republican the closer you get to Miami, with the larger places (Marathon and Key Largo) not being quite as Republican as the smaller locations (low 60s vs. high 60s).

So I guess the near-universal backing of SSM in Key West (even among the few Republicans there) was enough to overcome the mild opposition in the other Keys? Are there precinct maps of that referendum out there?
There are precinct results available. Precincts in Monroe County are numbered west to east. It is easier to simply classify them by the the city of the polling place. Key West has 10 precincts, Key Largo 6, and Marathon 5. The other 12 precincts are divided among 8 cities.

There was quite a bit of variation among precincts in Key West, but in general Obama did better than No on Amendment 2.

Key West: Obama 69%, No 65%. An extreme example voted at MLK Pool:
   MLK Pool: Obama 90%, No 69%

Overall, the strongest Obama precincts had the largest swing towards Yes. But the strongest McCain precinct had the second largest swing to Yes.

In the rest of the rest of county: McCain 57%, Yes 54%. There was relatively little variation in the swing. In the rest of the county, it appears that McCain voters were more likely to vote Yes, but it was nowhere a case of McCain voters being 100% Yes and Obama voters 100% No.
67  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 12, 2017, 03:33:01 pm
I would consider a North/South approach for districts 6 and 7, rather than East/West or maybe a more diagonal orientation. I know it is possible to have 6 majority African American Assembly districts in Northern Milwaukee + Brown Deer that are all reasonable in their compactness and the VAP %.
AD-4 and AD-7 may be majority BCVAP. The Census data classifies persons as either Hispanic or not and a combination of the 6 racial categories (2^6 minus 1 combinations = 63). A person is not permitted to not have a race. The table that I am using does not distinguish race for Hispanic persons, so there may be Puerto Ricans who indicate their race as black. For simplicity of calculation, I only used single race persons, so mixed-race persons end up being classified as "other".

So my categories are:

Hispanic, regardless of race.
Non-Hispanic White only.
Non-Hispanic Black only.
Non-Hispanic Asian only.
Other (Total minus 4 other groups, and includes Non-Hispanic AIAN and NHOPI).

A more formal approach would have likely used the one-drop formula which would include mixed-race persons as black rather than other. And finally Hispanic and Asians are much more likely to be non-citizens.

Communities are mostly black for a combination of reasons: (some) blacks like to live with blacks; (some) whites don't like to live with blacks; historical practices such as redlining, covenants, real-estate steering; and economic factors, such as (many) blacks not being able to afford houses in certain areas.

It is unconstitutional to redistrict on the basis of race. While a black community might exist in a social sense, such as shared churches, cultural tastes, etc., it can not be recognized unless it coexists with residential patterns. That is, you can create a district for an area where a significant black population is a characteristic of the area.

The record will show that I made a deliberate effort to increase the black population in AD-4, by moving Brown Deer into AD-8, and Glendale into AD-17, which allowed AD-16 to come further south, moving AD-4 to the west. The eastern boundary of AD-4 is the Milwaukee River, a hard geographcal feature. The inclusion of the Milwaukee wards on the southwestern corner of Glendale was done for population reasons and smoothing the border, but had a secondary benefit of moving some 90% wards out of Milwaukee (if not for the other neutral reasons, they could reasonably be considered cracked since they were placed in a district that is half in Ozaukee County, and does not include many blacks other than in Glendale).

There was a smaller effort for SD-7. SD-9 was brought south for population balance, but also pushes SD-7 slightly more to the west.

I will not vary district populations for political or racial purposes. It is unconscionable to do so. Any irregularities in boundaries are due to following existing ward boundaries or population reasons.

I believe that the way that Muon2 drew the area of Milwaukee west of Wauwatosa may indicate a preponderance of race. There really is no explanation of the L-shaped district other to cut out a majority white area and connect it with  an overwhelmingly black area. He may have also injured the opportunity of the most concentrated black areas to have a representative who actually lives in the area.

In the case of the two Hispanic districts, the original version had split the highest concentration of Hispanics, which is just above 70% into two districts.
68  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 12, 2017, 02:34:56 am
This is my final map for Milwaukee County.



1. Milwaukee (far south); tan; 0.990; VAP%: 77W, 15H, 3A, 3B, 2O.
2. Milwaukee (southside west); blue; 0.986; VAP%: 54H, 36W, 6B, 2O, 2A.
3. Milwaukee (southside east) and West Milwaukee; red; 1.000; VAP%: 57H, 30W, 8B, 3A, 2O.
4. Milwaukee (westside and near northside); lime; 1.012; VAP%: 48B, 41W, 6H, 3A, 2O.
5. Milwaukee (westside); blue; 1.012; VAP%: 60B, 26W, 6A, 6H, 3O.
6. Milwaukee (northside); purple; 0.992; VAP%: 92B, 4W, 2H, 2O, 0A.
7. Milwaukee (northside west); green; 0.996; VAP%: 49B, 42W, 3H, 3A, 2O.
8. Milwaukee (far northside) and Brown Deer; mauve; 0.995; VAP%: 57B, 33W, 5A, 3H, 2O.
9. Milwaukee (far northside west); yellow; 0.994; VAP%: 53B, 36W, 5A, 4H, 2O.
10. Oak Creek and South Milwaukee; light blue; 0.968; VAP%: 87W, 6H, 3A, 2B, 2O.
11. Franklin, Greendale, Hales Corner; orange; 0.996; VAP%: 88W, 4A, 4B. 4H. 1O.
12. Milwaukee (Bayview, downtown), Cudahy, and St. Francis; green; 1.008; VAP%: 86W, 6H 3B, 3A, 2O.
13. Greenfield and Milwaukee (West Allis-Greenfield finger); pink; 0.989; VAP%: 86W, 7H, 3A, 2B, 2O.
14. West Allis; kelly green; 1.052; 86W; 7H, 3B, 2O, 2A.
15. Wauwatosa and Milwaukee (Wauwatosa-West Allis finger); slate; 0.995; VAP%: 88W, 5B,  3H, 3A, 1O.
16. Milwaukee (eastside), Whitefish Bay, and Shorewood; orange; 0.979; VAP%: 88W, 4B, 4A, 3H, 2O.
17. Mequon, Glendale, Fox Point, Bayside, Thiensville, River Hills, and Milwaukee (Glendale indention); red; 0.995; VAP% (Milwaukee County only): 74W, 19B, 3A, 3H, 1O,
18: Northern Ozaukee County (off map); 1.043.

Senate districts:

SD1. AD1-3, southern Milwaukee;
SD2. AD4-6. westside and near northside Milwaukee;
SD3. AD7-9. northwest Milwaukee.
SD4. AD 10-12. southern Milwaukee county and southern shoreline.
SD5. AD 13-15. western Milwaukee county.
SD6. AD 16-18. Ozaukee County and northern shoreline Milwaukee County.

And a version without wards.



I'd be concerned about a 92% BVAP district (AD 6) it looks like a clear case of packing. It would certainly get challenged. If the claim is that the 48% BVAP and 49% BVAP districts adjacent to that are VRA-performing, then why not split AD 6 between two districts and make both over 46% BVAP and claim that they would both be performing?

Also the 57% HVAP AD 3 would definitely lose in court. As krazen pointed out the 60% HVAP AD lost in 2012 and was redrawn.
Is this better?

2. Milwaukee (southside east) and West Milwaukee; blue; 0.993; VAP%: 45H, 44W, 6B, 3A, 2O.
3. Milwaukee (southside east) and West Milwaukee; red; 1.000; VAP%: 68H, 20W, 8B, 2O, 2A.

Congress should require a citizenship question on the US Census.

The placement of the 6 districts in northern Milwaukee are reasonable compact and cover the area of highest black concentration. You would apparently have tentacles extending out from the area of highest concentration so as to control more voters. This is an impermissible predominance of race in the drawing of the districts.


69  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US Religion by County, 1950 Census on: February 10, 2017, 12:29:48 am
How come they don't ask about it anymore? Sad It would be fascinating to see how these patterns have changed over time.

Anyway, great map!

They don't ask it anymore because it's actually illegal to do so (Congress banned it from being a Census category after this), as for why while the data is interesting to us demographic nerds it doesn't serve much of a purpose in regards to the stuff Census data is actually used for.
Individuals were never asked a religion question.

The Census Bureau did not exist until 1902. Before that US Marshals would be directed to tabulate all the individuals in their jurisdiction. They were also directed to gather information about manufacturers, agriculture, commerce, education, etc. Sometimes the directions were vague, and the additional information was incomplete or little value.

In 1890, not only were churches surveyed, but the number of members of the congregation were asked about. Beginning in 1906 through 1946, there was a decennial census of religious bodies (the results from 1946 were never published due to lack of funding).

Before the 1950 Census, some groups requested a religion question. Some suggested that it would help denominations plan churches, just as McDonald's, etc. use the census to guide placement of stores. Ultimately no religion question was added. The 1950 Census was the last to rely on enumerators. Since it looked like the Census was going to stop doing the Census of Religious Bodies, the National Council of Churches organized a survey in 1952.

13 USC 102 permits the Census Bureau to collect decennial statistics on religious bodies, and 13 USC 224 provides fines for failure to comply.

12 USC 221 provides fines for an individual falsely answering questions, but in 1976 subsection (c) was added providing an exception about religious questions. The 1976 law also eliminated the prison sentences for false answering.

So it appears that the Census Bureau has decided that it is better to say "You must fill out the Census form." and not include the exception, rather than "Please fill out the form, it is really fun, pretty please Smiley"

There is also a push to shorten the form so people don't think it is too long, or the questions are too personal.
70  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 09, 2017, 11:38:04 pm
Sheboygan County is entitled to 2.011 districts.



19. Sheboygan city, Sheboygan town, Kohler village. 1.021.
20. Remainder of county. 0.989
71  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US Religion by County, 1950 Census on: February 09, 2017, 10:20:59 pm
The purple areas in Oregon might be Mormon.
There were 114 denominations that were aggregated into:

Baptist (groups combined)
Congregationalist
Disciples of Christ
Lutheran (lots of groups combined)
Methodist
Presbyterian
Episcopal
Roman Catholic
Jews
"Other"

In Oregon, the "Other" group is mainly Adventists and Mormons. It also appears that the other groups are somewhat balanced, and perhaps overall weak.

In Lane County, "other" was

Church of Jesus Christ Latter-day Saints 1734
Assemblies of God 1429
Seventh Day Adventist 1084
Evangelical United Brethren Church 814
Open Bible Standard Churches, Inc. 780
Churches of God (Anderson, Indiana) 337
Church of the Nazarene 143
Church of the Brethren 142
Unitarian Church 92
Reorganized Church Of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints 81
International Church of the Foursquare Gospel 25
Pilgrim Holiness Church 21

Add them all up and

Other 6682

Disciples of Christ 6493
Roman Catholic 4392
Methodist 4372
Baptist 3971
Lutheran 2940
Presbyterian 1831 (6 groups top the largest "other" group (LDS)

Episcopal 1193
Congregationalist 903
72  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 09, 2017, 08:42:33 pm
Any complaints if I were to calculate partisan data of these districts (swing, trend, etc.)?
Good idea, but can you hold off posting anything yet?

The claim of the lawsuit is that the map-drawers had partisan data at a fine level, and then eliminated the 50-50 districts by making them more Republican flavored, moving Republicans in from other donor (districts). I want to avoid being tempted to set boundaries for partisan reasons.

Would it help to have ward lists for Milwaukee, any other cities that are split?

73  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting on: February 09, 2017, 02:17:28 pm
This is my final map for Milwaukee County.



1. Milwaukee (far south); tan; 0.990; VAP%: 77W, 15H, 3A, 3B, 2O.
2. Milwaukee (southside west); blue; 0.986; VAP%: 54H, 36W, 6B, 2O, 2A.
3. Milwaukee (southside east) and West Milwaukee; red; 1.000; VAP%: 57H, 30W, 8B, 3A, 2O.
4. Milwaukee (westside and near northside); lime; 1.012; VAP%: 48B, 41W, 6H, 3A, 2O.
5. Milwaukee (westside); blue; 1.012; VAP%: 60B, 26W, 6A, 6H, 3O.
6. Milwaukee (northside); purple; 0.992; VAP%: 92B, 4W, 2H, 2O, 0A.
7. Milwaukee (northside west); green; 0.996; VAP%: 49B, 42W, 3H, 3A, 2O.
8. Milwaukee (far northside) and Brown Deer; mauve; 0.995; VAP%: 57B, 33W, 5A, 3H, 2O.
9. Milwaukee (far northside west); yellow; 0.994; VAP%: 53B, 36W, 5A, 4H, 2O.
10. Oak Creek and South Milwaukee; light blue; 0.968; VAP%: 87W, 6H, 3A, 2B, 2O.
11. Franklin, Greendale, Hales Corner; orange; 0.996; VAP%: 88W, 4A, 4B. 4H. 1O.
12. Milwaukee (Bayview, downtown), Cudahy, and St. Francis; green; 1.008; VAP%: 86W, 6H 3B, 3A, 2O.
13. Greenfield and Milwaukee (West Allis-Greenfield finger); pink; 0.989; VAP%: 86W, 7H, 3A, 2B, 2O.
14. West Allis; kelly green; 1.052; 86W; 7H, 3B, 2O, 2A.
15. Wauwatosa and Milwaukee (Wauwatosa-West Allis finger); slate; 0.995; VAP%: 88W, 5B,  3H, 3A, 1O.
16. Milwaukee (eastside), Whitefish Bay, and Shorewood; orange; 0.979; VAP%: 88W, 4B, 4A, 3H, 2O.
17. Mequon, Glendale, Fox Point, Bayside, Thiensville, River Hills, and Milwaukee (Glendale indention); red; 0.995; VAP% (Milwaukee County only): 74W, 19B, 3A, 3H, 1O,
18: Northern Ozaukee County (off map); 1.043.

Senate districts:

SD1. AD1-3, southern Milwaukee;
SD2. AD4-6. westside and near northside Milwaukee;
SD3. AD7-9. northwest Milwaukee.
SD4. AD 10-12. southern Milwaukee county and southern shoreline.
SD5. AD 13-15. western Milwaukee county.
SD6. AD 16-18. Ozaukee County and northern shoreline Milwaukee County.

And a version without wards.

74  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US Religion by County, 1950 Census on: February 09, 2017, 12:32:37 pm
The last time the US Census asked about religion:
What is your data source?

National Historical Geographic Information System, run by the University of Minnesota. All their data is free, though you have to register.
They (or ICPSR) have blended some sources.

The Census never has had a religious question asked of individuals.

In conjunction with the population census, the census has also included surveys about manufacturing, agriculture, and religion. The religious survey was done by contacting churches, etc. 1890 was the first where the churches were asked to include the number of members.

From 1906-1946, the Census Bureau conducted a decennial census of religious bodies, though the results from 1946 were never published due to a lack of funding.

After the Census Bureau stopped collecting data on religious bodies, the National Council of Churches did so in 1952, this is the source of the 1950 data.

NHGIS data sources
75  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US Religion by County, 1950 Census on: February 09, 2017, 11:59:17 am
What's with all these Catholics in the Mountain West? Huh
The US Census has never asked individuals about their religion, and it is now illegal to do so. Since answering the census is mandatory, it is felt that it would violate freedom of conscience to ask the question.

In the the latter part of 19th Century, there was a separate questionnaire for churches which would be conducted at the same time as the census. In 1890, for the first time, it included a question about church membership. Every 10 years, from 1906-1946, there was a separate census of religious bodies, though the results from 1946 were not published.

In 1890, Montana had 142K, Arizona 88K, Idaho 88K, and Wyoming 62K. By comparison, Colorado had 413K. Notice how huge the counties in Montana were.

Because it is more centrally organized, it is easier for the Catholic church to organize parishes. It might be possible because priests are single, that it would be easier to send a young priest off to a rough frontier town. It might be hard to recruit a minister and his wife and young children. Catholics may have better record keeping, and may record "members" differently. Churches might be less likely to be skipped. Each protestant body would have to organize separately. If there were 100 Catholics, and 200 protestants in a town, the 200 protestants might be divided among 10 denominations, so they would be faced with organizing a church for a couple dozen members. There might be a Methodist church in one town, and a Lutheran in the next, and so on. Methodists might not go to the Lutheran church and vice versa.
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