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51  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: August 20, 2014, 09:10:10 pm
Here's a TX plan based on jimrtex's suggestion. Everything fits the range. Is a district from El Paso to Corpus going to survive a plebiscite?



This is Muon's proposal.



Central Texas 3875K
Rio Grande 3468K
West Texas 2901K
Fort Worth 3080K
Dallas 3616K
East Texas 4114K
Houston 4092K

Alternative Names

San Antonio-Austin
Borders

I wanted Rio Grande to retreat back towards Corpus Christi, and to trim a bit off the Dallas and Fort Worth districts.  But that would likely have pushed the East Texas district over the maximum limit, plus sprawling from Texarkana to Victoria.  So instead I created a district comprised of Dallas and Tarrant counties, equivalent to the Harris County district, and then created a Northeast and Southeast districts, that include the DFW and Houston suburbs as well as satellite cites.



Southeast Texas 3326K
Houston 4092K
Dallas-Fort Worth 4177K
Northeast Texas 3196K
Central Texas 3859K
West Texas 3354K
Rio Grande 3140K

History

Texas was 25th in its first census in 1850.  By 1870 it was 20th and gained a 2nd district.  It surged to 7th in 1890 and gained a 3rd district.  It reached 5th in 1910, and gained its 4th district in 1920.   It dropped back to 6th in 1940, but still gained a 5h district in 1960.  It advanced to 3rd in 1980, and added its 6th district in 1990.  It moved to 2nd in 2000, and added a 7th district in 2010.

Utah entered the Union in 40th place, it was still 40th in 1940, and has since crept upward to 34th.

Vermont entered the Union in 13th place, and dropped every census through 1930 when it was 45th.  In managed to hold onto 45th in 1940 and 1950, then began to drop again until it was 48th in in 1970.  It kept that until 2000, when Alaska passed it.  Thus Vermont has never gained a position, and has only held a position for few decades at a time.
52  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Some miscellaneous Nevada maps and charts and things on: August 19, 2014, 09:49:11 pm
Nevada and Idaho are such oddly created states, like leftover states. I'd prefer to cut a giant line through CA to right above Clark County. Further divide the northern section into two "northwest" and "north east" sections (probably by continuing the Oregon/Idaho border) and give them to the nearby states.

Northwest Nevada + North CA.
Northeast Nevada + Utah.
Southern Nevada + South CA.
Nevada Territory initially only extended east to the 116th meridian, and south to the 37th parallel (the northern boundary of then New Mexico Territory, now modern Arizona.  The boundary was shifted west to the 114th meridian.  It was after Nevada became a state that the area south of the 37th parallel and west of the Colorado River was taken from Arizona Territory and added to Nevada.

The western border of Idaho is the 117th meridian.   So your proposal is almost identical to the initial division, but your Northwest Nevada is shifted west.
53  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 19, 2014, 06:25:39 pm
I'm guessing that the powers that be in the white-run, black-majority town of Ferguson probably don't react too well to black folk who seek office.
You are.
54  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 19, 2014, 04:26:48 pm
Let's note than the opponent to the black candidate was a left-wing environmentalist and pro-bicycle advocate. The black councillor, for some reason, seems very implicated with LGBT issues. So, it's not like if black people/left-wingers can't get elected.
He was elected from the high turnout ward, and is a civil engineer, so almost assuredly a home owner.

Quote
He was also the only black candidate in the 3 last years. Other defeated candidates are a bunch of hyper-conservative white candidates or corrupt former councillors (white, too).

We can't complain than the council isn't representative if the issue is than there is no black candidates (there is at least candidates, at a point in the 00's, they elected someone because there was no candidate and he was the only registered write-in candidate!)

Too long, didn't read: The issue in municipal politics isn't race, it's lack of candidates and ideology (which is normal, given the very limited power of a city like Ferguson. Everyone promises repairing roads, keeping taxes low and protecting kids, no matter the party).
The write-in candidate was elected because he received the most votes (23).  Though he did register as a write-in candidate, that was not necessary for election.  He actually campaigned to some extent.   At the time of his election, the Post-Dispatch ran an article about who the mystery councilman was.  The mayor said he had seen in the filings (with St.Louis County) that someone had filed, and that he was looking forward to meeting and working with the write-in candidate (with a name of Kynan Crecelius they must not have required correct spelling).   Crecelius at the time was a 31-year old software developer who had heard that the councilman for the ward had not filed for re-election.

The city has a city manager, so the city council doesn't really have a lot of power.  It also has term limits, and it doesn't appear that there is an entrenched council.   One councilman has been elected over a long period of time, but not consecutive elections.  It might be that no one was running so he decided to take another turn.  If you have a real job, you are going to eventually be distracted by a promotion, or an out-of-town contract, and decide that small town city council is not all that rewarding.
55  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 19, 2014, 03:48:17 pm
When are the next elections in this city?

Half of Council in April 2015, the other half in April 2016, the Mayor in April 2017. 3 year terms.

lol April elections. Fck the South, no wonder the entire government down there is white people.

Well, there is the issue than, no matter when is the election, there is a lack of candidates anyways. Of the 7 current members, 3 had no oppostion (the mayor, 1 of 3 in 2013, 1 of 2 in 2012). The black councillor was the one of contested councillors of 2013 and he won 73-26, so issue is probably more lack of candidates than timing.
Dwayne James was unopposed when he was elected the first two times.  23 of the last 48 city council races have been unopposed, plus one where a write-in candidate was elected with 23 votes when nobody filed.

Ward 3 has fewer registered voters, and much worse turnout.  That means it has the highest concentration of renters, particularly multi-family, and extremely black.  10 of its last 11 elections have been uncontested.
56  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rick Perry indicted on abuse of power on: August 19, 2014, 12:19:40 am
I don't live in Texas, so I have my own filter. Texas has some strange politics.

Elected officials have no right to interfere in the judicial process for partisan ends. A state governor may use pardons and commutations as permitted by the State constitution, but that is as far as it goes. The governor cannot fire a judge or diminish his pay (which is a constructive firing) for political purposes.

An indictment has been made, and that does not itself imply guilt -- just that a case for prosecution exists. That is all.

It's good to see that someone gets it. I keep seeing this really, really nasty meme that it's okay to blatantly break the law if you're doing to to "punish" a wrong-doer (alleged or otherwise). Does anyone think that what Perry did would have been just dandy if he'd done it because the person he was targeting was hispanic? Or gay? Or Muslim? The ends DO NOT justify the means - if a civilization start ignoring its own laws because it think that is true, then its doomed.
What law was "blatantly" broken?
57  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rick Perry indicted on abuse of power on: August 17, 2014, 11:53:25 pm
Isn't this the same DA's office that tried to indict Kay Bailey Hutchison for having her aide pick up lipstick, and the very same that convicted DeLay of those charges of which he was acquitted? Yeah, this seems to be a political hit squad masquerading as a legal authority. For Hutchinson it was because the DA had wanted to be appointed to the senate vacancy she filled. Now it's because this DA refused to quit. It's a personal vendetta, again.

IT WASN'T THE TRAVIS COUNTY D.A., PEOPLE!!! The special prosecutor wasn't from Austin or Travis County and neither was the grand jury.
The grand jury most certainly was from Travis County.

Did you even read the indictment before you spasmed?
58  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Where We Come From, State By State on: August 17, 2014, 11:28:35 pm

On a related note, are there any statistics as to the breakdown of those born in the US by state (in other words, how many Americans were born in New York, California, Texas, etc)?

Born in the US or born in a particular state?

In fact the maps reveal both of those informations.

I wanted to know the former, and I didn't see that listed anywhere. I would imagine that more Americans were born in California than any other state, although I'd also guess that New York would be very high as well (probably second to California). To make it more clear, I'd like to know the number of Americans by state of birth. According to the 2010 Census, about 270 million Americans are native born. I'd like to see that number broken down by state of birth.
For 2000: population born in state (or DC or PR), and living in US or PR (ie not overseas).


Alabama                4,784,944
Alaska                   445,704
Arizona                2,546,626
Arkansas               2,905,920
California            22,137,341
Colorado               2,848,419
Connecticut            2,984,847
Delaware                 608,080
District of Columbia   1,333,674
Florida                7,109,367
Georgia                6,454,906
Hawaii                 1,093,202
Idaho                  1,102,485
Illinois              12,694,353
Indiana                6,097,120
Iowa                   3,708,577
Kansas                 2,861,444
Kentucky               4,526,761
Louisiana              4,956,025
Maine                  1,294,098
Maryland               3,813,370
Massachusetts          6,342,301
Michigan              10,166,053
Minnesota              4,856,163
Mississippi            3,505,212
Missouri               5,742,470
Montana                  949,863
Nebraska               2,050,469
Nevada                   676,579
New Hampshire            875,354
New Jersey             6,967,168
New Mexico             1,563,499
New York              19,585,564
North Carolina         6,783,313
North Dakota           1,039,975
Ohio                  11,970,426
Oklahoma               3,579,826
Oregon                 2,346,021
Pennsylvania          13,812,297
Rhode Island           1,065,939
South Carolina         3,680,037
South Dakota           1,035,184
Tennessee              5,237,285
Texas                 16,249,763
Utah                   1,988,821
Vermont                  559,142
Virginia               5,461,976
Washington             3,953,086
West Virginia          2,572,112
Wisconsin              5,373,448
Wyoming                  489,857
Puerto Rico            4,893,114


The following rank is based on population born in US+PR (excluding foreign born, born outside US+PR to US parents, and born in insular territories other than PR), and living in the US or PR in 2010.

Rank for population is: CA, TX, NY, FL, PA, OH, IL, MI, NC, GA
Rank for births is: CA, NY, TX, PA, IL, OH, MI, FL, NJ, NC
Rank for emigrants: NY, CA, IL, PA, OH, TX. MI, NJ, MA, MO
Rank for immigrants: FL, CA, TX, GA, VA, NY, AZ. IL, NC, OH
Rank for natives: CA, TX, NY, PA, OH, IL, MI, FL, NC, GA

59  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: August 17, 2014, 06:38:55 am
Here's version 2 of my draft plan. In addition to the population I have included the PVI of each district in square brackets, with positive values for D PVIs and negative numbers for R PVIs.

TN (2)
   Great Valley (TN) 2342K [-20.6]
   Cumberland and Mississippi (TN) 4004K [-11.8]

Tennessee statutes define the Grand Divisions.  Sequatchie is in the Middle Grand Division.

East Tennessee 2328K
Middle&West Tennessee 4019K

History

Tennessee gained its 2nd district in 1810, and has had two ever since.  After reaching 5th in 1840 and 1850, Tennessee dropped to 10th in 1860, and as low as 19th in 1920.  Since then it has been in the lower teens.

Kentucky and Tennessee were for a long time quite parallel in population.  After Tennessee caught up with Kentucky in 1830, they were within 10% of each other every census through 1940.  In 1930, Tennessee had 2000 more persons.   In 2010, it now has 2 million more people, as over the last 80 years, Tennessee has added 3.7 million, while Kentucky has added 1.7 million.
60  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: August 17, 2014, 01:23:22 am


After moving the Lehigh Valley to the Northeast, I shifted the Western district to include Altoona, I then adjusted the boundaries of the districts to conform to the regional EMS districts (the council of government organizations in Pennsylvania are mostly single county, and are organizations of boroughs, municipalities, and towns, rather than counties).  The one divided EMS district includes Berks and Schuylkill to the west, and Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon, and Monroe to the east).  If Berks and Schuylkill were moved to the Northeast, that would underpopulate the Central region, forcing it north to include State College.

The population disparity is somewhat high.  One solution would be to pull Chester out of the Philadelphia region since it is the least connected, and perhaps retreating the Western region some.

Philadelphia 4009K
Northeastern Pennsylvania 2356K
Central Pennsylvania 2448K
Pittsburgh-Western Pennsylvania 3889K

I suspect Schuylkill would want to be in your yellow district.
It was a close decision, with the final decision made because it was slightly better population balance between the two smallest districts.

Berks being in the central district is essential to my plan. 

Wilkes-Barre has been declining for close to a century, and was crushed by the flood in 1972.  Commuting from Schuylkill to Berks (4.8K) is greater than to Luzerne (4.0K); Dauphin (2.5K) more than Lehigh (2.1K); and Lebanon (1.6K) than Carbon (1.4K).  On the other hand, this is small compared to the stay-in-the county employment of 43.3K.

There is also little reciprocal commuting, with the largest source being Carbon County.  Pottsville is quite isolated, and may see itself as being beyond the mountains, but that is also true of northern Dauphin and Perry counties.

I'd let individual counties switch in each of the three plans, then vote among the refined version of the three plans.

Berks and Schuylkill might be considered essential to Northeast Pennsylvania in Train's plan, which might force Centre and Blair as being in the central district, to avoid shedding too much population.  If the Lehigh Valley is essential to Muon's central district, then there are limits to how much population may be be shed from his northeast district.

It is conceivable that there would be alternatives that divide the 5-county Philadelphia area that give a lot more flexibility in other parts of the state.  From a minimalist, dropping of Chester; to an extremely limited Philadelphia consisting of the city and Montco.
61  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: August 16, 2014, 05:07:51 pm
This is Train's proposed plan:



Philadelphia 4009K
Northeastern Pennsylvania 2691K
Central Pennsylvania 2805K
Pittsburgh-Western Pennsylvania 3198K

Muon did not like the extension of the Central Pennsylvania district to New York, and offered this alternative.



Philadelphia 4009K
Northeastern Pennsylvania 2420K
Central Pennsylvania 2947K
Pittsburgh-Western Pennsylvania 3326K

Muon, you didn't update the populations on your second map.

I didn't like the long extension of the Northeastern Pennsylvania district to the southwest, which in part is required by putting the Lehigh Valley in Central Pennsylvania.



After moving the Lehigh Valley to the Northeast, I shifted the Western district to include Altoona, I then adjusted the boundaries of the districts to conform to the regional EMS districts (the council of government organizations in Pennsylvania are mostly single county, and are organizations of boroughs, municipalities, and towns, rather than counties).  The one divided EMS district includes Berks and Schuylkill to the west, and Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon, and Monroe to the east).  If Berks and Schuylkill were moved to the Northeast, that would underpopulate the Central region, forcing it north to include State College.

The population disparity is somewhat high.  One solution would be to pull Chester out of the Philadelphia region since it is the least connected, and perhaps retreating the Western region some.

Philadelphia 4009K
Northeastern Pennsylvania 2356K
Central Pennsylvania 2448K
Pittsburgh-Western Pennsylvania 3889K

History

Pennsylvania had 3 districts in 1790 as the 3rd largest state.  It passed Massachusetts in 1800 to rank 2nd and gained its 4th district.  It slipped to 3rd behind New York in 1810, but gained a 5th district in 1820.  In 1830, it passed Virginia to become the second most populous behind New York, a position it would hold until 1950.

It gained a 6th district in 1850, and generally kept pace with New York throughout the latter part of the 19th Century.  It added a 7th district in 1910, but lost it in 1930.  It fell to 3rd behind California in 1950, and lost its 6th district in 1960.

Pennsylvania stalled over the latter part of the 20th Century, particularly in the 1970s, and 1980s.  Between 1960 and 2010, Pennsylvania gained at an annual rate of 0.23%.

Texas passed Pennsylvania in 1980. as Pennsylvania fell to 4th, its lowest ranking ever.  In 1990, it fell to 5th behind Florida, the last state to ever rank so high at its lowest point, and also lost its 5th district.  In 2000, it fell to 6th behind Illinois.

Rhode Island has always been one of the least populous states, traditionally only being larger than Delaware.  It kept ahead some of the new western states to reach 13th smallest in 1940 and 1950.   Since then it has slid to 8th smallest.

South Carolina had two districts from 1790 until 1870, when as a consequence of the Civil War it had almost no growth and lost the 2nd district.  It regained the second district in 1880 and held lost it again 1910.  After sliding down somewhat, it has began to recover.  In 2010, it was the closest to regaining the 2nd district since 1920.

South Dakota was 35th in 1890, its first census after statehood.  That was its highest ranking ever.  Between 1930 and 1990, South Dakota gained a total of 3,155 persons.
62  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: August 13, 2014, 06:19:57 pm
Here's version 2 of my draft plan. In addition to the population I have included the PVI of each district in square brackets, with positive values for D PVIs and negative numbers for R PVIs.

OH (3)
   Miami (OH) 4187K [-6.7]
   Scioto (OH) 3255K [-2.8]
   Erie (OH) 4095K [+6.4]
This is Muon's proposal



Cleveland-Northeast Ohio 4095K
Columbus-Central Ohio 3254K
Cincinnati-West Ohio 4187K

Alternative names:

Northeast Ohio
Central Ohio
Western Ohio

This is my alternative, which puts the Ohio River with Cincinnati, and puts Toledo and northwestern Ohio with Columbus.



Cleveland-Northeast Ohio 4222K
Columbus-Central Ohio 3816K
Cincinnati-Southern Ohio 3498K

Alternative names:

Northeast Ohio
Central-Northwest Ohio
Central Ohio
Southern Ohio
Ohio River

History

Ohio's first census as a State, 1810 saw it ranked 13th.  It increased by 150% in the next decade to reach 5th, and added a 2nd and 3rd district.  By 1840, Ohio was ranked 3rd behind New York and Pennsylvania, and added a 4th district.

Ohio intermittently had a 5th district in 1850, 1870, 1930, and lastly in 1960, but never quite held on.  Ohio dropped to 4th in 1890, when Illinois passed it, and 5th in 1950, when California passed, 6th in 1970 when Texas passed it, and 7th in 1990 when Florida moved ahead.

After its 4th episode of 5 districts in 1960, Ohio dropped to 4 districts in 1970, and back to 3 in 2000, for the first time since 1830.

Oklahoma entered the Union in 1907, and gained its 2nd district in 1910, it lost it in 1950, after two decades of decline in population.  Oklahoma would not surpass its 1930 peak until 1970.

Oregon, along with Nevada and Nebraska were premature additions to the Union, and by 1890 had drifted down to 38th (the new states of Washington and South Dakota had a greater population on entry, than Oregon had after 30 years).

Oregon has slowly crept upward since then:

1900: 35th (+SD, +VT, + NH)
1910: 35th (+RI, -OK)
1920: 34th (+ME)
1930: 34th
1940: 34th
1950: 32nd (+CO, +NE)
1960: 32nd
1970: 31st (+AR, +WV, -CO)
1980: 30th (+MS, +KS, -AZ)
1990: 29th (+IA)
2000: 38th (+CT)
2010: 27th (+OK)

KY and LA may be in reach in a decade or two, but UT and NV are coming up from behind.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OK - where's the special election come from? on: August 11, 2014, 10:25:58 pm

TL;DR: Oklahoma's machinery for filling Senate vacancies is bloody ridiculous and needs to be overhauled.

Do you prefer the process used in Blagobama, where the Blagobamian governor sold the appointment rights, and then there had to be a lawsuit to get Blagobama to hold a special election for the final month and half of the senate term?

What is ridiculous about holding elections on the regular schedule of elections when you will be electing representatives, and legislators, and local officials?
64  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: August 11, 2014, 04:46:36 am
Quote
NC Blue Ridge is underpopulated (isn't the Blue Ridge most associated with VA?).  Adding Charlotte or Greensboro would correct that, but would mess up the other districts.  Does Asheville-Charlotte, Greensboro-Raleigh, and Wilmington-Fayetteville and whatever we can stuff into it work?

This works better than trying to keep the three major urban centers separate, which results in either Charlotte or Greensboro stretching to Fayette-Wilmington and the other joining with Asheville. It's easier to start with the coastal areas as a unit. This is the plan I came up with.

Catawba 3369K; 2008 pres: D 45.8%, R 53.1%, O 1.1%
Piedmont 3522K; 2008 pres: D 52.7%, R 46.4%, O 0.9%
Pamlico 2644K; 2008 pres: D 50.4%, R 48.9%, O 0.7%



My numbers are slightly different, likely due to my use of the corrected numbers.  I could see moving counties like Franklin and Granville to Piedmont.  Franklin has more workers in Wake, than stay in Franklin.  Granville has commuting to both Durham and Wake.

Coastal  2642K
Piedmont   3525K
Appalachians 3369K

Alternative Names

West Carolina
Central Carolina
East Carolina, Pamlico Sound

History

North Carolina was the 4th largest state in 1790, and had 3 districts.  It was 4th as late as 1820.  It then began to drop, losing its 3rd seat in 1840, and dropping to 10th in 1850.  By 1890 and 1910 it was 16th.  It then begin to creep upward with the development of mills and other manufacturing.  It has been somewhat up and down, as it reached 10th in 1950, and 1980, and 1990, and 2010.  It is poised to move to 9th in 2020.

It regained its 3rd seat that it had lost in 1840 in 2000.   It is likely that there was an east/west split, with the division between Greensboro and Durham, so the current map would reflect creation of the 3rd district from the more central parts of the old districts.

North Dakota has always had one district.  It has had been between 600,000 and 700,000 from 1920 to 2010.  It reached its peak population in 1930, but has likely surpassed that with the Bakken boom.  The population dropped in the 1930s, 1940s, 1960s, and 1980s.  The period from 1990 to 2010 is the first two consecutive decades of growth since 1910-2030.

North Dakota was passed by Rhode Island and South Dakota in the 1920s, Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah in the 1940s, Hawaii, Idaho, and Montana in the 1950s, New Hampshire in the 1960s, Nevada in the 1970s, Delaware in the 1980s, and Alaska in the 2000s, dropping from 36th to 48th.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OK - where's the special election come from? on: August 11, 2014, 12:54:10 am
The law appears to have an interesting history.  If you look at the statutes it was changed in 2012.

So I looked up the 2012 session laws.  There was a bill that changed several of the sections related to vacancies and special elections, but the only change to 26-12-119 was to make the starting date for the new senator (or representative!) the latter of (a) the date the election results are certified, or (b) the resignation date of the current office-holder.  Under the previous version, (a) was the election date.  So this was a minor change to recognize that elections are not instantly resolved.

The previous change to 26-12-119 was in 2002 (when it was added).  In the same bill, subsections 26-110(C) and 26-110(D) were eliminated.

26-110(C) was similar to 26-12-119, but applied only in the case of a senator who declared his future irrevocable intent to resign before July 1 of an even numbered year, with more than two years remaining in his terms.  In effect, it permitted the special election to occur with the regular primary and general election.

26-110(D) applied only to the House of Representatives, and only to an irrevocable intent to resign made before October 29, 2001; and provided dates for a special primary of December 11, 2001, primary runoff of January 8, 2002, and special election on February 12, 2002.

If you take Oklahoma Special Elections or NFL Greats for $400, the question would be: "Who is Steve Largent?"  Steve Largent resigned his house seat effective on February 15, 2002 in order to run for Governor, and the law was changed to permit his successor to be chosen prior to the effective date of his resignation.

So the 2002 addition of 26-12-119 was to generalize the concept which had previously only applied to certain senatorial vacancies, and to remove the very special case language that had been added the year before.

The 2001 change was made in the 1st Extraordinary Session, and was passed on October 23, 2001 with an immediate effective date, and a presumption that some representative might in the next 6 days set their resignation to occur on February 15.

Reading Steve Largent's biography, I came across the extraordinary discovery that he had been appointed to the House of Representatives.

26-12-101(B) provides that when a congressional vacancy occurs in an even year, that no special election be held, but that the representative or senator elected at the regular election be appointed to the remnant of the vacancy.  James Inhofe, who had been elected to the Senate, resigned his House seat on November 15.  Steve Largent who had been elected to the full term on November 8, was appointed to fill the final month-and-a-half of Inhofe's term.  This extra-constitutional appointment was approved by the House:

HR 105, 103rd Congress authorized the Speaker (Tom Foley) to administer the oath of office to Largent, and left the question of Largent to the seat to the House Administration committee.  I suspect they just ran out the clock.   The resolution was sponsored by Robert Michel, then the minority leader.  Michel did not seek re-election in 1994; Foley was defeated; the Republicans became the majority, with Newt Gingrich becoming speaker.

Inhofe ran for the Senate in 1994, to replace David Boren, who had two years remaining on his term.  Boren announced that he was resigning on April 28, 1994 to become president of the University of Oklahoma, but his resignation was not effective until November 15, 2004.

This apparently permitted the special election to replace him to be held on the regular election schedule, prior to his actual resignation.

26-12-101 was modified in 1994, wilth immediate effect on May 26, 1994.  I couldn't find the 1994 session laws on line, but I would not be surprised if 26-12-101(C) was added which permitted a senator with two or more years remaining on their term (eg Boren), to irrevocably state their intent to resign on a future date, before July 1 (eg Boren), to hold the special election on the regular election schedule, with the senator-elect (eg Inhofe) taking office immediately.  This also permitted the special election for Imhofe's house seat to be held on the regular schedule.  It is possible that 26-12-101(B) was also added at this time, which permitted Largent to take office early.

26-12-101(C) abd 26-12-101(D) were removed in the 2002 cleanup and generalized in 26-12-119.

Inhofe's Democrat opponent in the 1994 special election was Rep. Dave McCurdy.  McCurdy apparently did not declare his intent to resign, and his replacement, Republican J.C. Watts, did not take office until January 3, 1995.

Rep.Glenn English resigned in January 1994, but the law at that time provided for an immediate special election.  Frank Lucas won the May special election and took office immediately.  Under current (2014) law, the special election would have been held, but the representative elected in November would be appointed to complete the term.

As to the constitutionality, does the 17th Amendment mean that a "vacancy happens" when the office is actually vacant; or may the governor issue election writs in the certain knowledge that a vacancy will occur.

Regular elections are called all the time in anticipation that the term of office of the existing officeholder will terminate on a date certain.  So what is the practical difference of holding the election prior to the actual vacancy?
66  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Measuring Compactness By Travel Distance on: August 09, 2014, 09:39:53 am
The Florida legislature has come into a special session in order to create a new congressional plan which (possibly) will be used for this fall's elections.

In perusing the committee documents on the proposed plan Committee Bill Analysis (PDF) see page 59 of PDF , I came across a table on page 59 of the PDF that was interesting.  It shows compactness measures that are apparently based on paths within districts, both straight line and by road connection (both distance and time).

If these are the same as described in this paper, Measuring Legislative Boundaries (PDF) , it appears that they are comparing the distance between random individuals of different groups.  Also it appears that distances get shortened because of urban concentrations within districts.  For example, District 1 in the west end of the panhandle, must include many paths in and around the Pensacola area.

A district that linked two distant cities would score relatively poorly.  A district that attempted to connect Whatcom and Okanogan would probably score low measured on travel distance or time.

General Comment on Plan: The circuit court overturned FL-5 (Corrine Brown's snake district from Jacksonville to Orlando), and FL-10 which wraps around the southern tip of FL-5 to pick up some areas in Orlando.  FL-5 had a side appendage into Sanford which was particularly objected to.

The plan removes the two appendage and somewhat fattens the snake.  Interestingly it leaves FL-3, the outer portion of Jacksonville and Duval counties unchanged.

FL-9 is shoved north to take in the two appendages, and FL-10, FL-17, and FL-9 are rotated counter-clockwise to accommodate the population changes.  Changes to FL-6, FL-7, and FL-15 are made to permit widening of the snake.
67  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: August 08, 2014, 12:17:53 pm
Here's version 2 of my draft plan. In addition to the population I have included the PVI of each district in square brackets, with positive values for D PVIs and negative numbers for R PVIs.

NY (5)
   Long Island (NY) 2833K [+0.4]
   Brooklyn (NY) 4735K [+26.9]
   Manhattan (NY) 3440K [+29.5]
   Hudson (NY) 3579K [+4.3]
   Ontario (NY) 4791K [+1.4]

I don't match your populations for the two upstate districts.  I have 4523K and 3846K, which would have placed WNY just inside the national limit.  You also did not change population with the switch of Delaware.

In any event, I moved Jefferson and Lewis to Hudson Valley & North Country, and left Delaware in Western New York.  Jefferson and Lewis belong with the North Country.  Delaware is typically placed with the Southern Tier - though I could see placing it with the Catskills.  It's not Hudson Valley, but neither is Ulster.  Fulton, Montgomery, and Schoharie are often placed with the central New York, but it seems that is cutting quite close on Albany-Schenectady.

Western New York 4380K
Hudson Valley & North Country 3990K
Long Island 2833
Brooklyn 4735K
New York City 3440K

Alternative Names

Western & Central New York
Kings & Queens
Manhattan, Bronx, & Staten Island

History

New York was the 5th most populous state in 1790, behind Virginia, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, just ahead of Maryland.  It had two districts.

By 1800 it was 3rd and added a 3rd district.  In 1810 it was 2nd and added 4th district.  It celebrated its 1st rank in 1820 by adding two districts to reach 6.  It added the 7th in 1830.

It almost secured an 8th in in 1870, fell off a bit and then added an 8th in 1910.  It reached its maximum of 9 districts in 1940, but lost that in 1950.

It dropped to 2nd behind California in 1970,  and dropped to 7 districts in 1980, and 6 districts in 1990.  It fell behind Texas in 2000, and dropped to 5 districts in 2010.  It will likely fall to 4th behind Florida in 2020.
68  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: August 08, 2014, 10:59:39 am


This illustrates two plans and how a final plan might be chosen. 

The first is based on Train's map, but since that left South Jersey below the national minimum, I shifted Ocean.  Since he indicated that this should not be done, I won't attribute it to him.  The light colors indicate counties that might be shifted to the adjoining region.  Mercer could be shifted from South Jersey to Central Jersey, and Hunterdon or Union could be shifted from Central Jersey to North Jersey.  The shifting of Union is dependent on Mercer being shifted.  Otherwise, Central Jersey would be too small.

Among the three counties, there are 8 combinations of changes, two of which are invalid because they would shift Union without shifting Mercer.

For each county that may be shifted we can determine its possible districts:

Hunterdon:

H1) 5 Central Jersey counties;
H2) 5 CJ + Mercer
H3) 5 CJ + Mercer - Union
H4) North Jersey + Hunterdon
H5) North Jersery + Hunterdon + Union

Union:

U1) 5 Central Jersey counties;
U2) 5 CJ - Hunterdon;
U3) 5 CJ + Mercer;
U4) 5 CJ + Mercer - Hunterdon;
U5) North Jersey + Union;
U6) North Jersey + Union + Hunterdon

Mercer:

M1) Mercer with South Jersey;
M2) 5 Central Jersey Counties + Mercer;
M3) 5 CJ + Mercer - Union;
M4) 5 CJ + Mercer - Hunterdon
M5) 5 CJ + Mercer - Hunterdon - Union.

A representative sample of the voters in each county would choose the map(s) that they approve.  In each county, they would only consider their potential districts.h

For the 6 valid combinations of shifts (upper case)/no shifts (lower case) the following plans  correspond:

MHU: M5 H5 U6
MHu: M4 H4 U4
MhU: M3 H3 U5
Mhu: M2 H2 U3
mHu: M1 H4 U2
mhu: M1 H1 U1

The plan that is (most) approved by all three counties would be the plan that goes forward.

The second plan is Muon's second plan.  I have added potential shifts of Warren and Union.  Warren might well have some mixed sensibilities, whether it is an exurb of New York, or a community along the Delaware River with ties to Allentown and Trenton.  Union is included more for illustrative purposes.

There are 4 combinations of shifts of the two counties.  While either may be made independently without population problems, the voters may have some sensitivity (eg Warren voters might find a northern district with Union too Hudson-centric)

After the two final plans were determined, representative samples of voters in all counties would choose which of their two potential districts they preferred.  The plan that has the overall approval of the state would be chosen.

It is conceivable that the process could be recursive, if an area did not like the plan that overall the state approved.  This might be more likely in a state with more districts.  The areas that approved the statewide plan would be locked in, with the other areas possibly being modified.

These numbers are based on Muon's 2nd plan.  I have used a corrected version of populations from the Census Bureau which accounts for the difference in the population for North Jersey.

North Jersey 4003K
Central Jersey 2340K
South Jersey 2449K

Alternative Names

Jersey Shore
West Jersey
Delaware River

History

New Jersey fell from 11th to 21st between 1790 and 1860, as its lack of land prevented a large farm population.  Industrialization brought population growth and a 2nd district in 1870.  By 1910, New Jersey was a 10th ranked and gained its 3rd district.  New Jersey was 8th or 9th from 1930 to 2000, as suburban growth from New York and Philadelphia maintained its population share (it passed Massachusetts in 1950, and was surpassed by Florida in 1980).  New Jersey lost to more places in 2010, being passed by Georgia and North Carolina.

New Mexico has always had one district.
69  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: immigration map of Australia on: August 05, 2014, 09:11:35 am
This is very cool.  The zoomable map covers every municipality in Australia, and shows you the largest immigrant groups in each:

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/map/where-australias-immigrants-were-born-sydney


What vintage are the Italian immigrants?

It is interesting that the Chinese areas appear to be more suburban - this is particularly noticeable in Brisbane and Melbourne.
70  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: African-American % by state, by decade on: August 05, 2014, 08:47:01 am
So, you guys have heard of the Great Migration, right? It's an important thing. Especially critical to keep in mind when thinking about Reconstruction.  Also, slavery was banned from the Great Lakes states way back in the Articles of Confederation days. So, that's why outside of the big Industrial cities, there are still no black people in the farm country up that way.

Actually, a lot of it was deliberately racist policy, particularly in the Lower Midwest.
How is West Virginia a different color than Virginia?

I suppose he went through by counties.
Or maybe the Census Bureau did.

Historical Census Statistics on Population Totals By Race, 1790 to 1990, and By Hispanic Origin, 1970 to 1990, For The United States, Regions, Divisions, and States
71  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: African-American % by state, by decade on: August 05, 2014, 08:43:36 am
1850:



Kind of weird that Washington is over 10% black here, drops massively to less than 1% in next census.
Not really.  One part of the compromise of 1850 was the banning of the slave trade in the District.  So in the 1850 census, it's quite likely a number of the slaves showing up on the census rolls would have transients who were there on census day simply because there were in the process of being sold.  Incidentally, the prospect of the banning of the slave trade was a major impetus behind the retrocession of Alexandria to Virgina in the 1840s, as Alexandria also had a thriving slave market.  That retrocession probably explains the drop for DC from 30% in 1840 to only 10% in 1850.
Washington is the state in the NW corner of the country.

You make the erroneous assumption that the District of Columbia, and the city of Washington have always been coterminous.  They weren't in 1850.
72  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: African-American % by state, by decade on: August 04, 2014, 10:44:29 pm

1810:



Not sure what the huge drop in Alabama is all about.
That is for the portion of Mississippi Territory that is now in Alabama.   In 1800 there were around 1000 persons, and in 1810 about 9000.  The southern part of the state (West Florida) was not in the USA at the time.  In 1810, Madison County (one of three counties) had half the population, which would have been settlers pushing down from the mountains of eastern Tennessee.  For a slave economy, you need a way to transport whatever is produced, whether it is cotton, tobacco, sugar, or indigo.  For subsistence farming, you only need a way to get there, and perhaps enough population to provide security from the people you are taking the land from.

1850:



Kind of weird that Washington is over 10% black here, drops massively to less than 1% in next census.
Washington portion of Oregon territory.  152 of 1200 persons, and the census did not distinguish non-black non-whites until the 1860 Census.  This might have included some Indians, black fur traders (such as Jim Beckwourth), and perhaps some Chinese.  In 1860, non-black non-whites only constituted 0.25% of the USA population.

Incidentally, Columbia County, New York may have had its maximum black population in 1800.  In later censuses, the outlying towns were mostly slave, while in Hudson they were mostly free colored (a not atypical pattern that you will also see in places like Baltimore, Charleston, Richmond, New Orleans, and other cities among areas that had slavery.
73  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: This chart is stunning on: August 04, 2014, 02:13:52 am


From Wikipedia, this chart shows the massive effect of white flight on Detroit. I've always wondered why Detroit was so black (83%), there's no other major city that homogenous in racial makeup. Was Detroit the worst city in regard to this? Even cities like Milwaukee and Cleveland don't seem to have that powerful of a population decline.
There are only two auto factories in Detroit (one partially in Hamtramck).
74  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: German speakers in the US on: August 02, 2014, 03:56:25 pm
German was easily the second-most widely spoken language in the US after English up until the early 20th century, when most German-Americans concealed their ethnic ancestry during World War I and were more or less forced to completely extinguish it during World War II.

It makes sense that it would be more likely to survive in more homogenously German areas where there wouldn't have been as much public pressure not to speak German in public. But I'd imagine most of the Americans who speak German at home are over 65 and that their children and grandchildren speak English. German will die with them.

The same phenomenon is happening in Louisiana with Cajun French.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-22490560

This indicates the cutoff is about 1950 (at least in New Braunfels).

http://www.tgdp.org/tgdp
75  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Weighted Voting For Congress on: July 31, 2014, 06:38:52 pm
Here's version 2 of my draft plan. In addition to the population I have included the PVI of each district in square brackets, with positive values for D PVIs and negative numbers for R PVIs.

MO (2)
   Prairie (MO) 3725K [+1.1]
   Ozarks (MO) 2264K [-17.1]

Eastern Missouri 3269K
Western Missouri 2721K



I started with the St.Louis, etc. CSA and the Kansas City-St.Joseph CSA, and added the core of Little Dixie along with some secondary counties to provide solid connectivity to St.Louis.   I then added Springfield and Joplin statistical areas and others along the western border, and Hannibal, Cape Girardeau and others along the Mississippi.  I was a bit low on the west and adding a little more aggressively.

I ended up using the regional planning commissions, which moved Chariton and Saline from Little Dixie to the west.  I suspect they don't like using the Little Dixie name and use boring monikers like Mid-Missouri.

Alternative Names

Missoursoda
Missouripop

History

Missouri gained its 2nd district in 1850, and its 3rd in 1870, which it lost in 1950.  Missouri was ranked 5th from 1870 to 1900.  Since then it has dropped in the ranking every decade but one.  It is now 19th.

Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire have always had one district.  Nebraska was the largest state with only one district in 1900.  New Hampshire never improved in its ranking until 1970 when the outflow from Boston was felt.  In 1960, New Hampshire was 45th.  It jumped to 41st in 1970 and has slid back some since then.

Nevada was the least populous state in every census from 1870 to 1950.  In 1960 had fewer residents.  By 1970, Nevada had also passed Vermont and Wyoming.  At its low point in 1900, Nevada would have had 0.05 of the average vote of the other 90 representatives.
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