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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition on: October 19, 2015, 04:17:43 pm
I submitted mine--or thought that I had, at least!--late last week, and yet I see no trace of them in the thread; I can only imagine that, being half-asleep in the wee hours of the day, I managed to fail actually to click "post".  I'd e-mailed myself a copy (pre-formatting, natch, which means that I got to re-add all the delightful tags just now), so I shall try again; my final numbers fade the NDP a bit more than these, but it's only fair that I post what I'd intended to--and, indeed, thought I had--some days ago.

Popular vote winner: Liberal (37.2%)
Most seats winner: Liberal (143 seats)

Battleground seats
St. John's South—Mount Pearl - LPC
Central Nova - LPC
Laurier—Sainte-Marie - NDP
Mount Royal - LPC
Spadina—Fort York - NDP
Eglinton—Lawrence - LPC
Beaches—East York - LPC
Toronto Centre - LPC
Mississauga—Malton - LPC
Sudbury - NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa - CPC
Regina—Lewvan - CPC
Lethbridge - CPC
Edmonton Centre - LPC
Edmonton Griesbach - NDP
St. Albert—Edmonton - CPC
Calgary Centre - LPC
Delta - LPC
South Surrey—White Rock - LPC
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam - CPC
North Vancouver - LPC
Vancouver South - LPC
Vancouver Granville - LPC
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country - LPC
North Island—Powell River - NDP    
Victoria - NDP

Other pickups
CPC: Charlesbourg—Haute-Sainte-Charles, Jonquière, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC: Cumberland—Colchester, Egmont, Fredericton, Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe, South Shore—St. Margaret’s (I may or may not, in my abiding laziness, simply have taken the first five LPC pickups from my [roughly] geographically-ordered list)

NDP: Courtenay—Alberni, Port Moody—Coquitlam, South Okanagan—West Kootenay, somewhere in Saskatchewan (perhaps Saskatoon—Grasswood or Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, although I’m not officially guessing either)

Comprehensive projection
Party standings (national)
LPC—143 seats (37.2 per cent)
CPC—112 seats (31.0 per cent)
NDP—79 seats (22.1 per cent)
BQ—3 seats (4.6 per cent)
GPC—1 seat (4.1 per cent)
SiD—0 seats (0.3 per cent)
Other and independents—0 seats (0.7 per cent)

Regional results
Territories: LPC—2 seats (41.4 per cent), NDP—1 seat (21.7 per cent), CPC—0 seats (29.0 per cent)
Maritimes: LPC—26 seats (53.1 per cent), CPC—3 seats (22.7 per cent), NDP—3 seats (20.0 per cent)
Québec: NDP—40 seats (28.7 per cent), LPC—24 seats (30.1 per cent), CPC—11 seats (17.9 per cent), BQ—3 seats (19.5 per cent)
Ontario: LPC—68 seats (43.6 per cent), CPC—38 seats (32.4 per cent), NDP—15 seats (19.3 per cent)
Prairies: CPC—17 seats (44.1 per cent), LPC—6 seats (29.4 per cent), NDP—5 seats (23.3 per cent)
Alberta: CPC—29 seats (55.3 per cent), LPC—4 seats (24.1 per cent), NDP—1 seat (14.9 per cent)
British Columbia: CPC—14 seats (30.5 per cent), NDP—14 seats (28.1 per cent), LPC—13 seats (32.3 per cent), GPC—1 seat (8.5 per cent)
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 06, 2015, 10:34:26 pm
Vote shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.5%
Labour - 33.2%
Liberal Democrats - 9.5%
UKIP - 12.4%
Greens - 4.6%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.4%


Conservatives - 279
Labour - 264
Liberal Democrats - 27
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP - 54
Plaid - 3
Galloway - 1
Other - 19 (DUP - 9, Sinn Féin - 5, SDLP - 3, Independent [Hermon] - 1, Speaker - 1)

Likely Government - Labour minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 26.6%, 3 seats (Glasgow North East, Rutherglen and Hamilton West, and either Dunfermline and West Fife or Edinburgh South)
SNP - 48.6%, 54 seats
Liberal Democrats - 5.4%, 1 seat (Orkney and Shetland, obvs)
Conservative - 15.2%, 1 seat (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk)
Greens - 1.5%, 0 seats
UKIP - 2.2%, 0 seats
Others - 0.6%. 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon - SNP (gain)
Glasgow North - SNP (gain)
Stirling - SNP (gain)

Berwick Upon Tweed - Conservative (gain)
Stockton South - Labour (gain)
Redcar- Labour (gain)

Bury North - Labour (gain)
Stockport - Labour (hold) 
Heywood and Middleton - Labour (hold)

Rotherham - Labour (hold)
Colne Valley - Conservative (hold)
Bradford West - Respect (hold)
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats (hold)

Boston and Skegness - Conservative (hold)
Broxtowe - Labour (gain)
Loughborough - Conservative (hold)

Worcester - Conservative (hold)
Dudley South - Conservative (hold)
Warwickshire North - Labour (gain)

Ynys Mon - Labour (hold)
Ceredigion - Liberal Democrats (hold)
Vale of Glamorgan - Conservative (hold)

Camborne and Redruth - Conservative (hold)
Bristol West - Labour (gain)
Wells - Conservative (gain)

Brighton Pavillion - Green (hold)
Thanet South - Conservative (hold)
Rochester and Strood - Conservative (gain)

Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats (hold)
Battersea - Conservative (hold)
Enfield North - Labour (gain)

Norwich South - Labour (gain)
Clacton - UKIP (hold)
Thurrock - UKIP (gain)
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Election Prediction Contest 2013 on: September 05, 2013, 07:13:01 pm
National 2PP vote

Coalition 52.6%

Seats per party, nationally

Coalition 92, Labor 55, Greens 1, Katter's Australian Party 1, Independent 1

2PP vote per state and territory

New South Wales: Coalition 55.2%
Victoria: Labor 52.6%
Queensland: Coalition 54.8%
Western Australia: Coalition 56.7%
South Australia: Coalition 52.0%
Tasmania: Coalition 51.2%
ACT: Labor 59.5%
Northern Territory: Coalition 52.6%

Winning party by seat

Bass: Liberal
Braddon: Liberal
Lyons: Liberal

Northern Territory
Lingiari: Labor (a roughly indefensible prediction, given all of my others, I know, and yet one from which I can't escape)
Solomon: Country Liberal

South Australia
Adelaide: Labor
Boothby: Liberal
Hindmarsh: Labor
Wakefield: Labor

Western Australia
Brand: Labor
Durack: Liberal
Hasluck: Liberal
O'Connor: Liberal
Swan: Liberal

Aston: Liberal
Bendigo: Labor
Chisholm: Labor
Corangamite: Liberal
Deakin: Liberal
Dunkley: Liberal
Indi: Liberal
La Trobe: Liberal
McEwen: Labor
Melbourne: Greens (even now the betting markets have Bandt priced far too long, IMHO)
Mallee: National

Blair: Labor
Bonner: Liberal National
Brisbane: Liberal National
Capricornia: Liberal National
Dawson: Liberal National
Fairfax: Liberal National
Flynn: Liberal National
Forde: Liberal National
Herbert: Liberal National
Longman: Liberal National
Moreton: Liberal National
Petrie: Liberal National (after changing my mind at least thrice)

New South Wales
Banks: Liberal
Barton: Labor
Bennelong: Liberal
Dobell: Liberal
Eden-Monaro: Liberal (50.1 either way)
Greenway: 0-for-6
Kingsford Smith: Labor (toss-up)
Lindsay: Liberal
Macquarie: Liberal
McMahon: Labor
Page: Labor (toss-up)
Parramatta: Liberal
Reid: Liberal
Robertson: Liberal
Werriwa: Labor

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator: Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Safest seat: Batman, VIC
Closest seat: Eden-Monaro, NSW (why not?)
Highest swing: Bass, TAS (15.6%)
Random upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none'): None it is.
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