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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 06, 2015, 10:34:26 pm
Vote shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.5%
Labour - 33.2%
Liberal Democrats - 9.5%
UKIP - 12.4%
Greens - 4.6%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.4%


Conservatives - 279
Labour - 264
Liberal Democrats - 27
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP - 54
Plaid - 3
Galloway - 1
Other - 19 (DUP - 9, Sinn Féin - 5, SDLP - 3, Independent [Hermon] - 1, Speaker - 1)

Likely Government - Labour minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 26.6%, 3 seats (Glasgow North East, Rutherglen and Hamilton West, and either Dunfermline and West Fife or Edinburgh South)
SNP - 48.6%, 54 seats
Liberal Democrats - 5.4%, 1 seat (Orkney and Shetland, obvs)
Conservative - 15.2%, 1 seat (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk)
Greens - 1.5%, 0 seats
UKIP - 2.2%, 0 seats
Others - 0.6%. 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon - SNP (gain)
Glasgow North - SNP (gain)
Stirling - SNP (gain)

Berwick Upon Tweed - Conservative (gain)
Stockton South - Labour (gain)
Redcar- Labour (gain)

Bury North - Labour (gain)
Stockport - Labour (hold) 
Heywood and Middleton - Labour (hold)

Rotherham - Labour (hold)
Colne Valley - Conservative (hold)
Bradford West - Respect (hold)
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats (hold)

Boston and Skegness - Conservative (hold)
Broxtowe - Labour (gain)
Loughborough - Conservative (hold)

Worcester - Conservative (hold)
Dudley South - Conservative (hold)
Warwickshire North - Labour (gain)

Ynys Mon - Labour (hold)
Ceredigion - Liberal Democrats (hold)
Vale of Glamorgan - Conservative (hold)

Camborne and Redruth - Conservative (hold)
Bristol West - Labour (gain)
Wells - Conservative (gain)

Brighton Pavillion - Green (hold)
Thanet South - Conservative (hold)
Rochester and Strood - Conservative (gain)

Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats (hold)
Battersea - Conservative (hold)
Enfield North - Labour (gain)

Norwich South - Labour (gain)
Clacton - UKIP (hold)
Thurrock - UKIP (gain)
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Election Prediction Contest 2013 on: September 05, 2013, 07:13:01 pm
National 2PP vote

Coalition 52.6%

Seats per party, nationally

Coalition 92, Labor 55, Greens 1, Katter's Australian Party 1, Independent 1

2PP vote per state and territory

New South Wales: Coalition 55.2%
Victoria: Labor 52.6%
Queensland: Coalition 54.8%
Western Australia: Coalition 56.7%
South Australia: Coalition 52.0%
Tasmania: Coalition 51.2%
ACT: Labor 59.5%
Northern Territory: Coalition 52.6%

Winning party by seat

Bass: Liberal
Braddon: Liberal
Lyons: Liberal

Northern Territory
Lingiari: Labor (a roughly indefensible prediction, given all of my others, I know, and yet one from which I can't escape)
Solomon: Country Liberal

South Australia
Adelaide: Labor
Boothby: Liberal
Hindmarsh: Labor
Wakefield: Labor

Western Australia
Brand: Labor
Durack: Liberal
Hasluck: Liberal
O'Connor: Liberal
Swan: Liberal

Aston: Liberal
Bendigo: Labor
Chisholm: Labor
Corangamite: Liberal
Deakin: Liberal
Dunkley: Liberal
Indi: Liberal
La Trobe: Liberal
McEwen: Labor
Melbourne: Greens (even now the betting markets have Bandt priced far too long, IMHO)
Mallee: National

Blair: Labor
Bonner: Liberal National
Brisbane: Liberal National
Capricornia: Liberal National
Dawson: Liberal National
Fairfax: Liberal National
Flynn: Liberal National
Forde: Liberal National
Herbert: Liberal National
Longman: Liberal National
Moreton: Liberal National
Petrie: Liberal National (after changing my mind at least thrice)

New South Wales
Banks: Liberal
Barton: Labor
Bennelong: Liberal
Dobell: Liberal
Eden-Monaro: Liberal (50.1 either way)
Greenway: 0-for-6
Kingsford Smith: Labor (toss-up)
Lindsay: Liberal
Macquarie: Liberal
McMahon: Labor
Page: Labor (toss-up)
Parramatta: Liberal
Reid: Liberal
Robertson: Liberal
Werriwa: Labor

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator: Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Safest seat: Batman, VIC
Closest seat: Eden-Monaro, NSW (why not?)
Highest swing: Bass, TAS (15.6%)
Random upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none'): None it is.
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