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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Election Prediction Contest 2013 on: September 05, 2013, 07:13:01 pm
National 2PP vote

Coalition 52.6%

Seats per party, nationally

Coalition 92, Labor 55, Greens 1, Katter's Australian Party 1, Independent 1

2PP vote per state and territory

New South Wales: Coalition 55.2%
Victoria: Labor 52.6%
Queensland: Coalition 54.8%
Western Australia: Coalition 56.7%
South Australia: Coalition 52.0%
Tasmania: Coalition 51.2%
ACT: Labor 59.5%
Northern Territory: Coalition 52.6%

Winning party by seat

Bass: Liberal
Braddon: Liberal
Lyons: Liberal

Northern Territory
Lingiari: Labor (a roughly indefensible prediction, given all of my others, I know, and yet one from which I can't escape)
Solomon: Country Liberal

South Australia
Adelaide: Labor
Boothby: Liberal
Hindmarsh: Labor
Wakefield: Labor

Western Australia
Brand: Labor
Durack: Liberal
Hasluck: Liberal
O'Connor: Liberal
Swan: Liberal

Aston: Liberal
Bendigo: Labor
Chisholm: Labor
Corangamite: Liberal
Deakin: Liberal
Dunkley: Liberal
Indi: Liberal
La Trobe: Liberal
McEwen: Labor
Melbourne: Greens (even now the betting markets have Bandt priced far too long, IMHO)
Mallee: National

Blair: Labor
Bonner: Liberal National
Brisbane: Liberal National
Capricornia: Liberal National
Dawson: Liberal National
Fairfax: Liberal National
Flynn: Liberal National
Forde: Liberal National
Herbert: Liberal National
Longman: Liberal National
Moreton: Liberal National
Petrie: Liberal National (after changing my mind at least thrice)

New South Wales
Banks: Liberal
Barton: Labor
Bennelong: Liberal
Dobell: Liberal
Eden-Monaro: Liberal (50.1 either way)
Greenway: 0-for-6
Kingsford Smith: Labor (toss-up)
Lindsay: Liberal
Macquarie: Liberal
McMahon: Labor
Page: Labor (toss-up)
Parramatta: Liberal
Reid: Liberal
Robertson: Liberal
Werriwa: Labor

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator: Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Safest seat: Batman, VIC
Closest seat: Eden-Monaro, NSW (why not?)
Highest swing: Bass, TAS (15.6%)
Random upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none'): None it is.
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