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March 27, 2017, 05:35:55 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Well, looks like Burr is going to pull this out on: March 22, 2017, 02:29:32 pm
what I don't get is - if Kay Hagan only narrowly lost in the bad year of 2014 - couldn't the dems win it in a slightly better year of 2016.

Granted, Hagan was an incumbent and whoever would challenge Burr is not - but still. Someone like McIntyre, Shuler, or even Easley would have been better.
2  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / how come Peter Cetera won't talk about his time in Chicago? on: March 22, 2017, 02:23:03 pm
It seems like he's refused to give interviews about his time in the band (and he was in the band for 17 years). He declined to be interviewed for the CNN special they did in January and also didn't show up at the hall of fame ceremony. Even more surprising, he declined an interview with Terry Kath's daughter (who was only two when her father killed himself).

What's your view on why he won't discuss it? Is he under some sort of gag order - or is he the passive-aggressive/petty person I always assumed he was?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Steve King openly promoting white supremacy on: March 13, 2017, 11:49:54 am
there's a difference between quoting Spencer, Taylor and the like - and just saying garden variety nationalist stuff that Bannon or Coulter have been saying for years.
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: songs that sound like someone else on: March 03, 2017, 04:46:35 pm
I've always thought that "Come a Little Closer" by cage the elephant sounds like oasis.
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / songs that sound like someone else on: February 28, 2017, 05:42:45 pm
I'll name some

"Africa" by Toto - sounds like Men at Work
"Magic" by Pilot - sounds like ELO
"Horse with No Name" by America - sounds like Neil Young
"Lonely is the Night" by Billy Squier - sounds like Led Zeppelin
"Photograph" by Def Leppard - first time I heard it, I thought it was either Boston or Foreigner
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Worst-run Presidential Campaign on: February 25, 2017, 04:24:37 pm
thought I would bump this slightly older than eleven years old thread
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke on: February 24, 2017, 04:12:44 pm
don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?

1958 for Heitkamp and 1928 for Manchin. Still not analagous. Those are fairly red states while Wisconsin basically has an EVEN PVI. If Kohl could get 58% in 1994 - why couldn't Baldwin win by a lot if Trump is very unpopular in 2018?
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke on: February 24, 2017, 04:03:57 pm
don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 03:36:27 pm
From my anecdotal dealings-
Democrats that are too liberal for their state: The majority of the Texas Democrat Party

i find that interesting since it wasn't all that long ago that people like Chet Edwards and Max Sandlin were in office

From my anecdotal dealings-
Republicans surprisingly moderate: Mississippi. This may shock some folks but the Mississippi GOP is not as conservative as people think.

the people in MS are temperamentally conservative but they're not CFGers. They're still big into pork (see Thad Cochran)
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 02:49:58 pm
I don't understand the question.

basically four questions:

what state democratic party is relatively liberal given how red the state is (i.e. utah democrats)
what state gop is relatively conservative given how blue the state is (i.e. california gop)
what state democratic party is relatively moderate-to-conservative given how blue the state is (i.e. RI dems)
what state republican party is pretty moderate-to-liberal given how red the state is (i.e. KS GOP)
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 02:47:23 pm
Massachusetts Legislative GOP is quite conservative. Mainly because they never matter. The Dems own the state leg, and are really two parties

Union/WWC/Centrist/DLC types (Stephen Lynch)
Progressive/Academic/POC types (Liz Warren)

surprised by that. I thought Charlie Baker (who never really endorsed Trump) is a typical Massachusetts repub.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 02:38:49 pm
liberal/moderate democratic party and conservative/moderate gop vis-a-vis the state?

I'd say:
Utah democrats
rhode island democrats
california gop
kansas gop
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: February 14, 2017, 11:31:54 pm
anyone here think he kind of has that numale pajama-boy look to him? I'd vote for him but remember, this is Georgia - not New Jersey.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: why has Kansas traditionally had a visible moderate wing in there GOP? on: February 12, 2017, 11:21:51 pm
The "moderates" would have been right-wing Republicans 30 years ago, like Bob Dole.

i always assumed that a stereotypical Kansas moderate would not be bob dole but someone like NL Kassebaum.
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: why has Kansas traditionally had a visible moderate wing in there GOP? on: February 12, 2017, 09:59:56 pm
Quote from:  link=topic=258677.msg5519953#msg5519953 date=1486842530
I think to some extent this has always existed because many Republicans early on in KS were of Yankee stock, and the type of Republican that lives in some areas still reflects this early origin. The geographic lines are more blurred now but this was the dynamic.

I always assumed that Kansas, like most of the neighboring states, were settled by the scots-irish.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / why has Kansas traditionally had a visible moderate wing in there GOP? on: February 11, 2017, 01:49:32 pm
I mean compared to the states that border it - it kind of stands out. Also, are the moderates in the local republican party a mostly rural phenomenon or is it a mostly urban/suburban one (i.e. inside the 435)?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2020 redistricting in Texas on: February 08, 2017, 12:19:29 am
R+4, D-1 easily!

Democrats ruthlessly gerrymandered what they thought was a 22-8 Congressional delegation in 1991. Time for payback.

the gop is pretty much maxed out in the US House in Texas.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: This is why I do not like rematches: on: January 31, 2017, 07:03:23 pm
Adlai Stevenson learned this very well. The person who lost can still run for the office again, just not against the same person who you lost to last time.

Yup! Look at what happened with Russ Feingold.

That is why I am not buying into the Jason Kander Roy Blunt rematch in 2022. If Kander is smart he would try to for governor in 2020 or even attorney general. Incredibly Josh Hawley is already creating controversy.

Long shot but I would be interested to see if Jason Kander could compete in MO-02 if open. Though he is from the other side of the state so that could obviously be an issue even if Representatives need not live in the district they represent.

feingold would have won in a 2012 or better type of year
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / anyone think the only way teachers unions can work on: January 27, 2017, 04:42:29 pm
is if the school in question meets state benchmarks? My view is this - teachers unions should only be allowed in schools that meet state benchmarks because if schools that don't meet state benchmarks are allowed to have teachers to unionize - then it allows them to stuff the school with more bad students - which will lead to a need for more $$$ and to hire more teaching assistants, which will create a self-reinforcing mechanism to hire more and more people to unionize.

An example is in this 20 minute speech: http://hlmenckenclub.org/hlmc-audio/2014-bob-weissberg-the-left-and-education
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / interesting article on the reaction against trump on: January 24, 2017, 11:14:40 pm
has basically said everything i've been talking about for the past few years but in a more intellectual way:
https://medium.com/@CostinAlamariu/rule-of-the-global-eunuch-88ef02a3e64c#.tw9dvmwcm
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: ND 2018: If Cramer doesn't run against Heitkamp, is Heitkamp still vulnerable? on: January 24, 2017, 09:35:30 am
what about the possibility that republicans punt on it like Nebraska in 2006 and Heitkamp wins easily?
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: January 22, 2017, 03:34:09 am
Age: 36
Ethnicity: White
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Hometown: Ozone Park, NY
Occupation: Club Owner
Income: High five figures?
Religion: agnostic (dad was jewish, mom was italian)
Gender: Male
Marital Status: Engaged
Education: college dropout
23  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why does Oklahoma have so many registered democrats? on: January 21, 2017, 03:45:43 pm
Oklahoma swung heavily Republican in 1960.  Stevenson lost the state by only 10 points in 1956 but JFK lost it by 18 4 years later.  Why was that?

Oklahoma is a heavily baptist state and probably didn't like the boston-accented kennedy.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: what type of person would you expect these two people to be (primary edition) on: January 14, 2017, 02:06:48 am
how about this guy

1972 - Ed Muskie
1976 - Jimmy Carter
1980 - Jimmy Carter
1984 - Walter Mondale
1988 - Joe Biden then Dick Gephardt
1992 - Bill Clinton
2000 - Al Gore
2004 - Dick Gephardt
2008 - John Edwards then Hilary Clinton
2016 - Bernie Sanders
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: what cultural events marked the end or beginning of a decade? on: January 11, 2017, 12:30:39 am
you could also argue that there is sort of a core and a crossover era:

Core 1940s: Pearl Harbor to Korea
Transition 40s-50s: Korean War
Core 1950s: end of Korea-1960 election
Transition 60s: JFK presidency
Core 60s: assassination of JFK to 1967 or so
Fringe 60s-70s: premier of smothers brothers/laugh-in in 67 or 68 to rural purge in 1971
Core 70s: rural purge in 1971 to 77/78 (i.e. new wave like talking heads, blondie, clash)
fringe 70s/80s - 77/78 to 1982 or so (i.e. van halen's first five albums)
Core 80s: 82 or 83 up until 89 or so
fringe 80s/90s (basically whenever REM was popular)
Core 90s - somewhere in the 91-92 school year up to 97 or 98 (when backstreet boys, nsync, usher come onto the scene)
Fringe 90s/00s - first through fifth grades more or less for me (I graduated from hs in 09 so do the math)
Core 00s - 01/02 up until the crash of 08
Fringe 90s/00s - Obama's first term more or less.
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