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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / 1936 - beginning of the rural urban divide?
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on: Today at 12:36:06 am
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One thing I've noticed from my CQ book. If one was to look at the election from how it would go in a tied election, the number of counties FDR wins drops dramatically. Major losses in MO, OK, NE, IA, IN, IL, NE, and SD. Is compensated for by huge pro-FDR swings in areas like Duluth, Chicago, Gary, Madison, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh etc.
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General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / question about the closed borders crowd
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on: May 12, 2013, 10:56:17 pm
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I'll admit that they make a good point now and then but that the main reason why I'm repelled by them is because they tend to attract the wrong element (minutemen and other splc hate groups). So my question is this:
Would the closed borders crowd be legitimized if a group like the Sierra Club endorsed an immigration moratorium?
Because the sierra club does not fit the usual profile of a closed borders crowd, I think it might. I also think that environmentalists may soon join this belief since having an additional million odd people could also mean more sprawl, smog and lesser quality of life.
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General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district
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on: May 12, 2013, 10:20:04 pm
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Great work!
Could you possibly provide the presidential results b/congressional district for L.A. during 1960 and 1964?
I can't for some reason find the 1964 results. I'll probably figure out a way to get it eventually. My guess is Goldwater won the ADs east of the SFV to the SB County line on the foothill and the Palos Verdes one. As for 1960: CD 15 55.2% Kennedy CD 16 55.8% Nixon CD 17 52.3% Kennedy CD 18 53.2% Nixon CD 19 65.6% Kennedy CD 20 66.9% Nixon CD 21 58.2% Nixon CD 22 51.7% Nixon CD 23 58.1% Kennedy CD 24 53.6% Nixon CD 25 57.2% Nixon CD 26 69% Kennedy if the lines had remain unchanged throughout the 60s here's my guess as to how things would have gone: 15 - McDonough probably would have lost in either 1962 or definitely 1964. It was already 32% black by 1960 16 -with Jackson (who was considered conservative) he definitely would have been toast by the early 70s with West LAs leftward shift. Al Bell, who was a moderate, probably could have held on as long as he wanted 17 - I'm not sure if the black population had encroached on the district by then. But with the ultraconservative Palos Verdes area becoming a larger % of the district and the traditionally dem areas of the South Bay tending GOP, it would probably have gone republican by 1968. Glenn Anderson nearly lost the open seat in 1968 without Palos Verdes 18 - probably would have remained republican until Hosmer retired in 1974, just like in real life 19 - it seems that during the 1960s, the dem performance in the SE part of the district declined badly, but would have been compensated for by the Hispanic population increase in the western part. 20 - probably would have been republican until the 90s 21 - probably would have stayed republican until a decade or so ago 22 - Corman probably would have lost in 1966 and the seat would have gone back to the democrats by 1974 23 - the republican trend in the eastern part would have been negated by the dem trend in the western part. It would have remained dem when Doyle died in 1963 24 - probably would have gone dem in 1964 25 - probably would have remained republican for several decades 26 - would have gotten even more safely dem
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-15: State Senate Maj. Leader Corbett to challenge Eric Swalwell.
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on: May 11, 2013, 10:26:11 pm
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And what loyalty does Swalwell deserve anyway? He mobilized Republicans to pick off an incumbent- that's not a rising star, that's an opportunist.
I would put more trust in the woman elected Majority Leader by a liberal Senate Caucus before a Republican-supported opportunist.
I don't see why everyone's thinking Swalwell is a DINO or something. He might break with the party on one or two issues but its not like he's Mike McIntyre. I'd think he'll be similar to someone like Allyson Schwartz, a mostly liberal democrat on environmental and cultural issues, but willing to throw his wealthy constituents a bone every now and then.
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: senate outliers in postwar presidential elections
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on: May 11, 2013, 12:28:53 pm
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here it is in the house
1948 No Idea 1952 Jacob Javits, that one Kansas district 1956 John Baldwin, Paul Rogers or James Haley 1960 not sure for the dems, but Sil Conte for the repubs 1964 one of the Mississippi dems, one of the MA repubs 1968 (two party vote) Jack Edwards, Tom Bevill 1972 Paul Cronin, Bob Sikes 1976 Sil Conte, K.G. McKay 1980 Newt Gingrich, Kent Hance 1984 William Green, Earl Hutto 1988 William Green, Earl Hutto 1992 Jay Dickey, Bill Orton 1996 Jay Dickey, Ralph Hall 2000 Connie Morella, Charles Stenholm 2004 Jim Leach, Chet Edwards or Gene Taylor 2008 Joseph Cao, Chet Edwards or Gene Taylor 2012 Gary Miller, Jim Matheson
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Forum Community / Off-topic Board / was John Lennon considered to be a subversive figure?
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on: May 11, 2013, 12:27:41 am
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if I recall Strom Thurmond attempted to get John Lennon deported out of the country around 1972. Even then, there was some fear (especially in conservative circles) of foreign subversives who would try to incite agitation (this fear dates back to the 20s). Although he had echoed some anarchic statements, was he really that much of a threat to be singled out?
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General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district
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on: May 10, 2013, 03:40:19 pm
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Really interesting. Didn't expect for example that Northern part of LA county (like district 41-42), which i always considered the most Republican part of county, was relatively volatile in 1950-60..
Those are "disguised" districts. No one really lived in the Antelope Valley back then and the bulk of the population was in the San Fernando Valley. Even then, I would guess areas like Sylmar and Pacoima were dem leaning.
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General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district
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on: May 08, 2013, 10:54:01 pm
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a lot of big name CA pols represented these districts.
- District 49 (NE corner of county) was represented by Houston Flournoy, who ran for governor in 1974
- District 50 (Whittier area) was represented by Ronald Cameron, who was in congress for a brief period in the 60s
- District 58 (Hollywood Hills) was represented by Joe Shell, who primaried Nixon for governor in 1962
- District 59 (Beverly Hills) was represented by Thomas Rees, who was in the u.s. house from 1965-1977
- District 62 (just south of downtown) was represented by Gus Hawkins, who was in the us house from 1963-1991
- District 65 sort of in the Crenshaw area, was represented by Jesse Unruh who eventually became speaker of the house, then ran for governor in 1970, and was later treasurer
- District 66 (not quite south central not quite west LA) was represented by Charles Wilson, a us house member from 1963-1981
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General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / any of you guys familiar with this ideology
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on: May 08, 2013, 12:28:26 am
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it's sort of a crassly nationalistic conservative worldview and America-centric view of Christianity that America was sort of the "christian" country and that the story of adversity is very much like that of the bible. It romanticizes a sort of agricultural frontiersmanlike America where the hardships are compared to that of the bible and how the farmer will eventually "enjoy the fruits of their labor" and what not. To them, this is what capitalism (or free enterprise as they call it) is, rather than a lot of fat cat millionaires throwing parties. They tend to believe free enterprise is a natural extension of Christianity with people being industrious, enjoying the fruits of their labor and the whole shebang. They tend to believe that without Christianity, capitalism will fail.
They also believe in a type of antistatist type of Christianity where the government is some kind of golden calf that people are worshiping instead of God. They tend to be skeptical of public schools (or government schools as they like to call them) because they view it as some kind of place where students are taught to worship the federal government and the U.N. rather than God.
These folks tend to see the democratic party then as a motley crew of people with ulterior motives. They tend to think that the civil rights movement, the environmental movement, gay rights movement, the woman's rights movement (especially abortion rights) as all branching off the same tree and all being directed by a select group of people behind the scenes (Marcuse, Cloward, Gramsci).
Some articulators of this ideology I would think would be the late Rev Billy James Hargis, Cleon Skousen, Curtis Bowers, RenewAmerica and WND, Paul Harvey, and Citizens United.
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