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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / 1936 - beginning of the rural urban divide? on: Today at 12:36:06 am
One thing I've noticed from my CQ book. If one was to look at the election from how it would go in a tied election, the number of counties FDR wins drops dramatically. Major losses in MO, OK, NE, IA, IN, IL, NE, and SD. Is compensated for by huge pro-FDR swings in areas like Duluth, Chicago, Gary, Madison, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh etc.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: where in the south could an atheist get elected to congress? on: May 17, 2013, 03:04:18 pm
Define 'the south'.

11 confederate states
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / where in the south could an atheist get elected to congress? on: May 17, 2013, 01:49:19 pm
I'm not talking about a militant Richard Dawkins type but rather someone who states they are an atheist, but doesn't make a big deal about it.

Discuss with congressional district maps.
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Bakersfield, CA on: May 17, 2013, 12:19:49 am
thought i'd bump this thread.

How come Kern county has consistently had a population growth higher than the national average? I mean there can't be that many good jobs bringing people there?
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / if Larry McDonald is not killed on 007, what does his political future look on: May 16, 2013, 02:49:55 pm
like?

Does he remain in office, try to run statewide (either against Mack Mattingly in 1986 or for governor in 1990), or does he retire voluntarily, realizing how futile his goals are and devoting his energy full time as a lobbyist (like DeMint)? Another thing I might wonder is his future as a democrat - does O'Neill, Wright or Foley strip him of his committee assignments, does he finally switch to the republicans, or does he lose renomination to a more liberal dem?
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 14, 2013, 01:51:09 pm
I'm surprised Torie hasn't said anything about this since he grew up there during the time of these maps.

One thing I've noticed is that between 1956 and 1972, democratic strength eroded in the eastern part of the county while it strengthened in the western part, essentially cancelling each other out.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-20/20 Insight/Better Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) competetive on: May 14, 2013, 11:43:16 am
I don't get why she's doing better against Handel than Broun.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / question about the closed borders crowd on: May 12, 2013, 10:56:17 pm
I'll admit that they make a good point now and then but that the main reason why I'm repelled by them is because they tend to attract the wrong element (minutemen and other splc hate groups). So my question is this:

Would the closed borders crowd be legitimized if a group like the Sierra Club endorsed an immigration moratorium?

Because the sierra club does not fit the usual profile of a closed borders crowd, I think it might. I also think that environmentalists may soon join this belief since having an additional million odd people could also mean more sprawl, smog and lesser quality of life.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 12, 2013, 10:32:07 pm
1950s congressional map
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 12, 2013, 10:20:04 pm
Great work!


Could you possibly provide the presidential results b/congressional district for L.A. during 1960 and 1964?

I can't for some reason find the 1964 results. I'll probably figure out a way to get it eventually. My guess is Goldwater won the ADs east of the SFV to the SB County line on the foothill and the Palos Verdes one. As for 1960:

CD 15 55.2% Kennedy
CD 16 55.8% Nixon
CD 17 52.3% Kennedy
CD 18 53.2% Nixon
CD 19 65.6% Kennedy
CD 20 66.9% Nixon
CD 21 58.2% Nixon
CD 22 51.7% Nixon
CD 23 58.1% Kennedy
CD 24 53.6% Nixon
CD 25 57.2% Nixon
CD 26 69% Kennedy

if the lines had remain unchanged throughout the 60s here's my guess as to how things would have gone:

15 - McDonough probably would have lost in either 1962 or definitely 1964. It was already 32% black by 1960
16 -with Jackson (who was considered conservative) he definitely would have been toast by the early 70s with West LAs leftward shift. Al Bell, who was a moderate, probably could have held on as long as he wanted
17 - I'm not sure if the black population had encroached on the district by then. But with the ultraconservative Palos Verdes area becoming a larger % of the district and the traditionally dem areas of the South Bay tending GOP, it would probably have gone republican by 1968. Glenn Anderson nearly lost the open seat in 1968 without Palos Verdes
18 - probably would have remained republican until Hosmer retired in 1974, just like in real life
19 - it seems that during the 1960s, the dem performance in the SE part of the district declined badly, but would have been compensated for by the Hispanic population increase in the western part.
20 - probably would have been republican until the 90s
21 - probably would have stayed republican until a decade or so ago
22 - Corman probably would have lost in 1966 and the seat would have gone back to the democrats by 1974
23 - the republican trend in the eastern part would have been negated by the dem trend in the western part. It would have remained dem when Doyle died in 1963
24 - probably would have gone dem in 1964
25 - probably would have remained republican for several decades
26 - would have gotten even more safely dem
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-15: State Senate Maj. Leader Corbett to challenge Eric Swalwell. on: May 11, 2013, 10:26:11 pm
And what loyalty does Swalwell deserve anyway? He mobilized Republicans to pick off an incumbent- that's not a rising star, that's an opportunist.

I would put more trust in the woman elected Majority Leader by a liberal Senate Caucus before a Republican-supported opportunist.

I don't see why everyone's thinking Swalwell is a DINO or something. He might break with the party on one or two issues but its not like he's Mike McIntyre. I'd think he'll be similar to someone like Allyson Schwartz, a mostly liberal democrat on environmental and cultural issues, but willing to throw his wealthy constituents a bone every now and then.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-15: State Senate Maj. Leader Corbett to challenge Eric Swalwell. on: May 11, 2013, 10:21:59 pm
Good. Swalwell is a terrible person for making Stark's atheism a political issue.

Whoa! I totally did not know that. What a scumbag. I don't get why people like him. I hope he gets defeated by Corbett. Maybe Khanna should have ran against him instead of Honda.

he did not make that an issue. What he made an issue was that Stark was an arrogant prick and that it was time for a change
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: senate outliers in postwar presidential elections on: May 11, 2013, 12:28:53 pm
here it is in the house

1948 No Idea
1952 Jacob Javits, that one Kansas district
1956 John Baldwin, Paul Rogers or James Haley
1960 not sure for the dems, but Sil Conte for the repubs
1964 one of the Mississippi dems, one of the MA repubs
1968 (two party vote) Jack Edwards, Tom Bevill
1972 Paul Cronin, Bob Sikes
1976 Sil Conte, K.G. McKay
1980 Newt Gingrich, Kent Hance
1984 William Green, Earl Hutto
1988 William Green, Earl Hutto
1992 Jay Dickey, Bill Orton
1996 Jay Dickey, Ralph Hall
2000 Connie Morella, Charles Stenholm
2004 Jim Leach, Chet Edwards or Gene Taylor
2008 Joseph Cao, Chet Edwards or Gene Taylor
2012 Gary Miller, Jim Matheson
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / was John Lennon considered to be a subversive figure? on: May 11, 2013, 12:27:41 am
if I recall Strom Thurmond attempted to get John Lennon deported out of the country around 1972. Even then, there was some fear (especially in conservative circles) of foreign subversives who would try to incite agitation (this fear dates back to the 20s). Although he had echoed some anarchic statements, was he really that much of a threat to be singled out?
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 10, 2013, 04:13:59 pm
1972

16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 10, 2013, 03:56:42 pm
1968

61st was Henry Waxman's district
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 10, 2013, 03:40:19 pm
Really interesting. Didn't expect for example that Northern part of LA county  (like district 41-42), which i always considered the most Republican part of county, was relatively volatile in 1950-60..

Those are "disguised" districts. No one really lived in the Antelope Valley back then and the bulk of the population was in the San Fernando Valley. Even then, I would guess areas like Sylmar and Pacoima were dem leaning.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 08, 2013, 10:54:01 pm
a lot of big name CA pols represented these districts.

- District 49 (NE corner of county) was represented by Houston Flournoy, who ran for governor in 1974

- District 50 (Whittier area) was represented by Ronald Cameron, who was in congress for a brief period in the 60s

- District 58 (Hollywood Hills) was represented by Joe Shell, who primaried Nixon for governor in 1962

- District 59 (Beverly Hills) was represented by Thomas Rees, who was in the u.s. house from 1965-1977

- District 62 (just south of downtown) was represented by Gus Hawkins, who was in the us house from 1963-1991

- District 65 sort of in the Crenshaw area, was represented by Jesse Unruh who eventually became speaker of the house, then ran for governor in 1970, and was later treasurer

- District 66 (not quite south central not quite west LA) was represented by Charles Wilson, a us house member from 1963-1981

19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 08, 2013, 10:46:21 pm
1960
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 08, 2013, 10:30:23 pm
1956

21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 08, 2013, 05:55:37 pm
LA County 1952


Code: Blue - not only voted for Eisenhower but above his national %
          Green - voted for Eisenhower, but below his national %
          Red - voted for Stevenson
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which county best fits the preceding poster? on: May 08, 2013, 11:03:23 am
Monroe, IN
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / any of you guys familiar with this ideology on: May 08, 2013, 12:28:26 am
it's sort of a crassly nationalistic conservative worldview and America-centric view of Christianity that America was sort of the "christian" country and that the story of adversity is very much like that of the bible. It romanticizes a sort of agricultural frontiersmanlike America where the hardships are compared to that of the bible and how the farmer will eventually "enjoy the fruits of their labor" and what not. To them, this is what capitalism (or free enterprise as they call it) is, rather than a lot of fat cat millionaires throwing parties. They tend to believe free enterprise is a natural extension of Christianity with people being industrious, enjoying the fruits of their labor and the whole shebang. They tend to believe that without Christianity, capitalism will fail.

They also believe in a type of antistatist type of Christianity where the government is some kind of golden calf that people are worshiping instead of God. They tend to be skeptical of public schools (or government schools as they like to call them) because they view it as some kind of place where students are taught to worship the federal government and the U.N. rather than God.

These folks tend to see the democratic party then as a motley crew of people with ulterior motives. They tend to think that the civil rights movement, the environmental movement, gay rights movement, the woman's rights movement (especially abortion rights) as all branching off the same tree and all being directed by a select group of people behind the scenes (Marcuse, Cloward, Gramsci).

Some articulators of this ideology I would think would be the late Rev Billy James Hargis, Cleon Skousen, Curtis Bowers, RenewAmerica and WND, Paul Harvey, and Citizens United.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Los Angeles County presidential results by assembly district on: May 07, 2013, 11:34:09 pm
seriously, no interest?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: how a state would look like in a tied election 1920-2012 on: May 07, 2013, 03:50:55 pm
Where's George Wallace for 1968?

its two party vote. So whoever finished second behind Wallace in most counties
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