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November 26, 2014, 05:56:04 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Surviving Southern Democrats If Landrieu Goes Down on: Today at 01:25:59 pm
Quote from: link=topic=203243.msg4394598#msg4394598 date=1416992649
Quote from: link=topic=203243.msg4394557#msg4394557 date=1416984691
Quote from:  link=topic=203243.msg4394199#msg4394199 date=1416963841
And when do you expect to win at least one of them?? Comstock just won, and won convincingly. The same about MacArthur. Meehan is strong and shows no desire to retire. IMHO - wishful thinking. Of course if we talk about near future. If we are ready to wait, say, until 2032, when demography will make what it must, and (may be) another Democratic wave happens - then yes, of course.. Are you sure that Democrats will gain another Governorships in 2018 to be competitive during next redistricting? And without BIG victories in 2018 2022 easily becomes 2032...

those type of seats aren't easy to win, but they're easier to win than dixiecrat seats like AL 5 or AR 1. Also, the next time a republican is in the white house, the dems should win it back. A lot of people aren't as tough incumbents as you think (Mark Warner for instance).
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Surviving Southern Democrats If Landrieu Goes Down on: Today at 01:51:31 am
Quote from:  link=topic=203243.msg4394199#msg4394199 date=1416963841
Republicans will gladly take them, as they do since 1940th.. And you can kiss goodbye to House majority for foreseable future..

the hank hill voters aren't the path to least resistance. The path to a majority involves taking seats like VA 10, PA 7, NJ 3 etc.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: should Marcia Fudge be stripped of seniority? on: Today at 01:49:32 am
Why would Pelosi want a revolt of CBC members?

would they though? Most CBC members would keep their mouth shuts for fear of being stripped of seniority.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: should Marcia Fudge be stripped of seniority? on: Today at 01:27:09 am
Christ, between this and your old "party of Trayvon Martin' comments, you really hate black people, don't you?

i don't recall ever saying "party of trayvon martin" or something of that nature.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / should Marcia Fudge be stripped of seniority? on: Today at 12:02:08 am
the dems could really do without the loose cannons who say inflammatory things. I think Pelosi should strip her of seniority to set an example that race baiting won't be tolerated.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will somebody please kick out Reid & Pelosi ? on: November 25, 2014, 05:30:45 pm
I'm a dem and I support a mutiny against Pelosi. I don't like her aggressive style, which reminds me of the late Phillip Burton. Pelosi actually suffered a rare defeat when her handpicked choice for RM on Energy and Commerce was defeated by Frank Pallone (who was the more sr member anyways).

Hoyer is pretty old anyways, but I like his operating style which is more of a Bob Michel/Tom Foley approach. Clyburn is a race baiter and would never have a chance in hell of being the face of the democratic party. Someone like Steve Israel or Joe Crowley would make a solid future speaker/minority leader as they are "acceptable to all factions" and harder to pigeonhole.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rubio vs. Murphy on: November 25, 2014, 01:16:25 am
unless the district trends dem, Murphy needs to stay put and become the next John Dingell.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / the unspoken truth - anybody think many democrats oppose keystone on: November 23, 2014, 05:38:35 pm
because they see it going through states (Great Plains) that they do not represent and see it benefiting "those" (read republiproles) people and not people who vote for them or their constituents.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / would these people have been confirmed as cabinet members? on: November 18, 2014, 11:13:26 pm
Charles Murray - Secretary of Education (Bush41) this was before the bell curve
William Kunstler - Attorney General (Carter)
Giuliani - Homeland Security (Romney)
McCain - Secretary of Defense (Romney)
Jim Inhofe - EPA Chair (Romney)
Pat Buchanan - Secretary of State (Bush43)

any others

10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rengel retiring on: November 16, 2014, 03:45:55 pm
does anyone see a future Harlem-to-Mount-Vernon district to keep a majority black seat? It would probably send Engel packing.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Democrat should run against Ron Johnson? on: November 15, 2014, 10:32:07 pm
as I've said. Kind has a better shot of being someone who could hold the seat longer. He's a decade younger than Feingold and has a better chance of being a Herb Kohl like figure who can always win easily (he won 58% in 1994)
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Southeast Queens on: November 15, 2014, 03:25:13 pm
anyone know why it has a large black majority as opposed to other areas? It just seems so isolated and out of sync in the region. What's more is that unlike other areas (Harlem, BedSty) it doesn't have much of a history. The congressman from that area for decades was Joseph Addabbo and I doubt that it had much of a large black population when he was first elected (it was probably heavily Italian and Irish back then).
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / question about Pink Floyd on: November 14, 2014, 12:41:27 pm
in a lot of the pre-Dark side stuff, Rick Wright sings on a lot of their songs. Anyone notice a strange accent he has compared to Roger and Dave? It's almost a caricature/cartoon character accent of what everyone thinks a British accent is like.

Here is some of his stuff
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / why "reform" is a cure worse than the disease on: November 13, 2014, 04:01:44 pm
we hear a lot about reformers on both sides of the aisle: people like Warren on the left and Sasse/Rubio/Paul on the right. The problem with all reform movements is the sanctimony of it. Its the idea of sounding smarter than everyone else despite being lower in seniority and is really akin to people acting as their own attorney in court because they think they are so smart. The other thing is that this rewards people who grandstand for media attention and are often more partisan than the average congressperson.

The way America works now, I think we'd be better adopting a New York style of governance where it is much more of a "shut up and vote" type deal and where everyone gets their sinecure and public works project in exchange for keeping the peace.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: who to run in 2016 on: November 13, 2014, 03:46:49 pm
if anything, Stutzman is the guy Dems should punt on. Hell, Donnelly should just abandon his current seat and run against Coats, so he can extend his life in the senate, since there's no chance in hell he's being re-elected.

1) Stutzman is probably worse than the maximum Indiana will allow (Jenner is probably the worse it can get in IN and he was never popular)

2) what if a republican is elected in 2016 as prez? If that's the case, Donnelly could be like Pat Roberts (seen vulnerable, but he pulls it out of his ass at the end)
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rengel retiring on: November 13, 2014, 03:09:55 pm
I can see a bunch of retirements on Ways and Means and someone like Richard Neal being chairman next time dems control HOR.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: who to run in 2016 on: November 13, 2014, 03:07:58 pm
Lipinski, Kind, Holden, Nixon, Schuler?

Try Bustos, Feingold, Sestak, someone else, and Hagan.

Bustos = also a solid candidate
Feingold = polarizing candidate. Never got above 55% while Kohl got 58-59% in 1994!
Sestak = could option as well
Missouri = Cleaver is too old and Clay is too polarizing
Hagan = seems too generic.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Keystone Phil - turning into a vosem clone? on: November 13, 2014, 03:04:12 pm
i've always tolerated him, but he has turned insufferable this election season
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / who to run in 2016 on: November 12, 2014, 03:48:32 pm
my thoughts:

AL - if Shelby retires, try running someone like Bud Cramer to "test" how a conservadem can do. If Shelby doesn't retire, leave him unopposed

AK - don't bother

AZ - depends if McCain retires. If he stays put, don't bother. If he gets teabagged or retires, run someone like Phil Gordon (we need Kirkpatrick and Sinema to hold those seats as long as possible)

AR - Arkansas is gone forever

FL - Castor seems like the best option.

GA - punt on the seat since Isakson is running. If he gets primaried, running Nunn again might work

ID - punt

IL - Lipinski seems like the one who would have the best chance. He's not that much different than Alan Dixon

IN - punt unless Stutzman gets in. If he gets in, try Bayh

IA - try to scare Grassley into retirement by threatening to run Vilsack. If Warner is any indication, personal popularity can be a house of cards.

KS - punt

KY - punt

LA - punt

MO - if he's still popular, try Nixon

NH - Hassan

NC - punish the republicans for gerrymandering and run McIntyre of Schuler

ND - punt

OH - Tim Ryan

OK - punt

PA - Tim Holden

SC - punt

SD - punt

UT - punt, unless Lee is deeply unpopular

WI - Kind

20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: inelasticity - symptom of societal deficits? on: November 12, 2014, 02:45:58 pm
Very interesting list.  Do you have a link to a story behind the list?  Btw what is SES?

SES = Socioeconomic Status
I found these attributes here on page 87
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: November 12, 2014, 01:16:00 pm
Age:  38
Gender: Male
Race:  White
Education: BA in Software Engineering
Occupation: Software Engineer
Income:  $100,000/year
Marital status:  Divorced (1 kid)
Religion:  Lapsed Catholic
Location: Centennial, CO

sounds like a Hick/Gardner voter
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2016 Top Democratic Targets on: November 11, 2014, 07:53:36 pm
I think the republicans should convince Sheyman to run since it will extend their lease on the seat.

I'm not as pessimistic (though still somewhat pessimistic) about IL-12. I mean Obama won it both times and this is the first time since WWII a republican won it at the congressional level. Also, didn't Stevenson win the current IL-12 both times?

23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: inelasticity - symptom of societal deficits? on: November 11, 2014, 04:48:37 pm
The Huntsville area of Alabama (by far the most educated in the state) seems very inflexibly conservative.

weird. I thought that Huntsville has always been the most moderate part of the state. Before he was a senator, John Sparkman represented that area in the house and after he became senator, was represented by Robert Jones for nearly 30 years, where he eventually chaired the public works committee. This area usually was supportive of the federal government because of the TVA and NASA money going their way. Before the VRA, it was usually the most dem district in the state, and even after the VRA was the most dem after the 7th.

Of course with Chairman Mo in office now, that might all be over.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / inelasticity - symptom of societal deficits? on: November 11, 2014, 03:13:43 pm
my opinion is that areas with inelastic voters (the south being the most obvious example) are that way because it is a failed state. A place like WA-8, on the other hand is more elastic because almost all of the things that exist in the south don't exist in a place like WA-8. Reichert, of course, is a moderate-minded congressman and the district is not one that has a liking for demagogues (look at who he ran against in 06 and 08).

Psychometricians and social scientists have talked about human capital and the signs of good human capital and low human capital

Signs of good human capital are as follows:
Achievement Motivation
Anorexia (there's a reason why this doesn't exist in human capital deficient Africa)
Artistic Ability
Dietary preference for less sugar and fat
Educational Attainment
Emotional Sensitivity
Extracurricular Attainment
health, fitness, longevity
sense of humor
breadth and depth of interests
logical ability
voluntary migration (i.e. mobility)
moral reasoning
motor skills
musical ability
occupational status
perceptual ability
practical knowledge
reading ability
social skills
high SES
spelling ability
talking speed

Signs of Human Capital Deficit
Accident Proneness
Societal Conservatism
Infant Mortality
Racial Prejudice
Reaction Time (tends to be higher)
Tobacco use
truancy from school

anyone here agree?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Cohn: GOP House majority may now be unshakable for a generation on: November 10, 2014, 04:28:15 pm
I think it's clear that the 2007-2011 Democratic majority was a brief aberration (like the short-lived 1947-1949 and 1953-1955 Republican majorities that studded the long 1931-1995 Democratic majority).

love the hackery. Remember that dems have 245ish seats. Good majority yes, but you have to remember that reps had bigger majorities most years. Let's take a look:

1936 334
1934 322
1932 313
1964 295
1976 292
1974 291
1958 283
1978 277
1982 269
1940 267
1990 267
1948 263
1960 262
1938 262
1988 260
1992 258
1962 258
1986 258
1970 255
1984 253

Although there were guys like George Mahon, William Colmer for the democrats that skewed the numbers there were still Gil Gude and Sil Conte types in the republican caucus.
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