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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: if you could travel back in time to this point two years ago on: December 16, 2014, 06:14:06 pm
Oh and Tim Johnson, tell him to stay on as well in South Dakota. Most of these states went as they did because the incumbents retired.

Johnson, Rockefeller, and Baucus would've met the same fate as Pryor/Landrieu. The only Dem incumbent who could've held their seat was Harkin, and he probably would've been like Warner, an expected huge favorite but only narrowly winning in the end.

its hard to know about Harkin. He never won by the margins Grassley did, but he unseated an incumbent by a margin larger than Grassley did and had top flight opponents in his first three reelection bids. Ernst is a worse candidate than either Ganske, Tauke or Lightfoot but its possible Harkin would be caught napping.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / if you could travel back in time to this point two years ago on: December 15, 2014, 05:53:40 pm
what do you tell the senate democrats? I would tell Landrieu and Pryor to retire and either tell Harkin to stay put or to convince Tom Miller to run.
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / opinion of Jeb Hensarling on: December 14, 2014, 03:13:54 pm
There's just a smugness about him I can't stand with the Eddie Haskell look on his face. Also, he's a CFG/RSC ideologue.
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / ever heard of the Alice Crimmins case fifty years ago? on: December 13, 2014, 01:06:29 am
I read about it on a show on Investigation Discovery called "A Crime to Remember". This is probably the most bizarre case ever. In 1965, 26 year old divorced mother (and known swinger) Alice Crimmins reports her four and five year old children missing and a few days later they are found dead (cause of death is strangulation) in different locations. Police zeroed in on her and put surveillance in her house and she said nothing.

Two years later, when they nearly give up on the case, they look at original case documents and find an anonymous letter say they saw a woman putting her kids in a car. They find out it was one of the people in the apartment complex. They track her down (she's mentally ill) and see that as evidence to arrest Alice. They manage to convict Alice on that alone (that and her unorthodox lifestyle which they saw as a motive). What's strange is that instead of first-degree murder, which is what the crime looks like, they gave her manslaughter and she was paroled in 1977. The fact that she's out of jail (and her whereabouts are unknown) not trying to get out meant that the police never gave it a second look.

It's been so long ago that you would think she would break her silence now and say something about what she thought happened and why she was wrongfully convicted, despite having been released 37 years ago. But yet again, she never said much in 1965 about who she thought did it. One theory I have is that it was a random creep. This was Kew Gardens (Queens, NY neighborhood) and 17 months earlier, there was the thrill-kill of Kitty Genovese by a man who was looking for a woman to kill and then rape (being a necrophiliac). With the information I have given you, do you think is might have been a random stranger, her ex-husband in a case of revenge filicide (he was alibi'd out early on) or that Alice actually did it.

5  General Politics / Political Debate / opinion of the Red Pill movement? on: December 12, 2014, 11:41:26 pm
thoughts?
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: last ex confederate state where a dem presidential candidate won white vote on: December 12, 2014, 02:40:49 pm
here are the last times a dem presidential candidate won a majority white vote in these states:

AL - 1956
AR - 1996 or 1976
FL - 1944
GA - 1976 or 1980
LA - 1952
MS - 1956
NC - 1976
SC - not sure. Carter winning all six CDs indicates he did. Before that, 1944.
TN - 1976
TX - 1964
VA - 1964

I doubt that Carter carried the white vote in the Carolinas.

well SC I'm not sure about because there is a large black population. But NC doesn't have as large a black population and Ford didn't win that many counties in the state.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / why are Philadelphia area whites more dem than NY area whites? on: December 12, 2014, 02:44:19 am
I never thought of Philly as being more liberal an area than NY and if anything more conservative. Here is what i found in 2008:

McCain won
63% of white vote in SI
56% in Queens
55% in Passaic
53% in Nassau
53% in Bergen
51% in Suffolk
51% in Union

Obama won
50% in Kings
50% in Middlesex
55ish in Essex
56% in Bronx
56% in Westchester
60ish in Hudson
80% in Manhattan

in Philadelphia, Obama won the white vote in all the major counties (this is 08 we're talking about), even in Chester. More impressive is that he won 56% in Camden County which I always thought had a large WWC population. Nonetheless, there's no equivalent of Manhattan either as Obama's best Philly area county was the city itself where he got in the low to mid 60s.

What do you think explains this? Obviously the all white areas in Bergen and Passaic are wealthier than all white areas in Burlington and Camden counties, but Obama also won the white vote in the mainline.
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / how would you describe this type of sound? on: December 12, 2014, 01:33:43 am
its an acoustic guitar sound that one hears at the start of these songs. Its my favorite sort of riff in a song and in my opinion is indicative of it being a "deep" song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5O5PX8Qgr8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUNNJTp2KOA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lgOo8yEIPs
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: last ex confederate state where a dem presidential candidate won white vote on: December 11, 2014, 11:58:27 pm
here are the last times a dem presidential candidate won a majority white vote in these states:

AL - 1956
AR - 1996 or 1976
FL - 1944
GA - 1976 or 1980
LA - 1952
MS - 1956
NC - 1976
SC - not sure. Carter winning all six CDs indicates he did. Before that, 1944.
TN - 1976
TX - 1964
VA - 1964
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-4 primary election this last June on: December 11, 2014, 05:21:51 pm
It was closer than I thought it was going to be, but Kevan Abrahams is the Minority Leader in the Nassau Legislature, so he wasn't exactly an also ran.  He was a strong candidate himself.

The reason I want to see the map is if it confirms my hypothesis that it was a kind of "demographic head count" with Abrahams winning Freeport, Roosevelt, Hempstead and VS with Woodmere, East Rockaway, Hewlett Harbor going for Rice.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / last ex confederate state where a dem presidential candidate won white vote on: December 11, 2014, 04:19:30 pm
My guess is Clinton in AR in 1996. Not sure if he won a majority though.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / NY-4 primary election this last June on: December 11, 2014, 02:35:25 pm
anyone have the results by village or what not? I'm surprised it was as close as it was.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Who was the last republican nominee to win new york city? on: December 09, 2014, 06:03:27 pm
i do think though that SNCY is on to something. The Fish family is a case-in-point in the evolution. Hamilton Fish Sr was a typical interwar Coolidge-ite RWer. His son, who was in the U.S. House in the 70s and 80s, was more of a "peacemaker" republican (similar to Chris Gibson who now represents some of that seat). Hamilton Fish III, who ran against Ben Gilman in the early 90s, was a down-the-line liberal democrat.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Who was the last republican nominee to win new york city? on: December 09, 2014, 05:22:33 pm
You need to consider that those Calvinists in KS, IN, OH and MI came from New England.  Their seperation may have proved to be what preserved their Calvinism as it bled away in the home region.

But what explains the fact that as early as the 1830s, Boston was a hotbed of left-wing religious views (Transcendentalists, Unitarians)? These type of people were like Emerson or Thoreau. Going back even further, the calvinists were kicked out of Harvard in 1805. This was before many of those midwestern states were even settled.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Who was the last republican nominee to win new york city? on: December 09, 2014, 01:37:19 am
So you had many tenuous groups that the republicans had a hold on in the 1920s

rural ethnic (german catholic and Scandinavian) voters who supported Harding in 1920 due to isolationism, voted for LaFollette in 1924, and was evenly split in 1928.

progressive republicans - this was not the Nelson Rockefeller or John Lindsays of later years but were in places like northern CA, WA, MT, ID. They voted republican in 1920 and 1928 but supported LaFollette in 1924.

Various southern constituencies - places like Middle Tennessee, Central/Southern Oklahoma, West Texas, the Piedmont etc who supported Cox and Davis but refused to vote for a catholic in 1928.

Immigrant groups - largely gaining in influence as they were becoming eligible to vote. Either didn't vote or voted republican in 1920 (due to dislike of Wilson foreign policy) and voted pretty evenly between LaFollette, Davis and Coolidge in 1924. Voted heavily for Smith in 1928.

Basically, if the dems could win all four groups, they would have an impressive coalition. All the republicans would have would be Anglo-Saxon rural areas (i.e. rural Northeast and the non-scandinavian, non-butternut areas of the midwest).

I might add that there were different strains of WASPs in the republican party. Much of New England was of a Unitarian/Anglican background that tended to be more moderate. Those that settled in the midwest (Kansas, Indiana) tended to be more of a Calvinist bent.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Who was the last republican nominee to win new york city? on: December 09, 2014, 01:28:49 am
I do think that comparing politics of that era is difficult. For one thing, its hard to ascribe motives to people voting. You may think all voters have the same amount of information as we do, but 75% of voters are low information voters, so the idea of a rational voter is a myth.

As to the coalitions, it changes rather rapidly. The elections from 1868-1892 were largely civil war rematches with a lot of gridlock.

The time from 1896-1928 I call the "radical era". The republicans usually dominated in this period but even then there was a lot of third party movements (which was evident even before 1896 with the James Weaver candidacy and the Grange movement). The 1896 election saw the democrats absorb much of those movements and was the beginning of the party as a class warfare one. The republicans also saw a break in ranks between populist (LaFollette, TR) and the business oriented ones (Coolidge, William Taft). But the 1920-1928 period was a harbinger of things to come. The republicans romped in all three elections but the coalitions were different (no doubt the result in immigrants finally voting). This is especially true in the midwest. LaFollette and Bryan's base of support were different. Bryan's base was farmers who were temporarily aggrieved but otherwise an anglo, christian conservative constituency.  LaFollette's base was in the upper midwest (MN, WI especially) where Bryan hadn't done all that well. His base was among Scandinavian and other immigrant heavy areas of the midwest. In 1920 the most republican midwestern states (not counting southern-influenced MO and IN) were North Dakota and Wisconsin while the least republican were KS and NE (with some remnants of Bryan democrats). By 1928 that had flipped.
 
17  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: is the term "white working class" a double count? on: December 08, 2014, 04:12:15 pm
what I mean is that once you control for things like religiosity, military service, gun ownership - how do democrats do with wwc vs non-wwc whites? If the dems still do a lot worse with the wwc when controlling for that, then thats a problem. Otherwise, the dems shouldn't be ashamed to lose the wwc.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: gangs in wealthy areas on: December 07, 2014, 02:23:11 am
Mara Salvatrucha operates in those places because Salvadorans are there, but i think its also inaccurate to say they operate in wealthy areas. Long island and the dc metro have large pockets of poor areas within the rich ones.

even Hempstead has a MHI higher than the median.
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / gangs in wealthy areas on: December 07, 2014, 02:06:01 am
the image most people have of gangs is a poor, very-densely populated, neighborhood. But the MS-13, an extremely vicious gang, has made the areas surrounding DC (Montco, NOVA) and Nassau/Suffolk counties a stronghold for their activities. Why do you think the gangsters have chosen those areas? Is it possible the kingpins can afford to live there from protection rackets and what not?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / who in the 2016 class do you think is the first to announce retirement on: December 04, 2014, 06:28:59 pm
For this year's class, Rocky and Lautenberg were the first to announce.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-Sen: Ryan considering on: December 03, 2014, 05:44:36 pm
Ohio has elected dem senators before. John Glenn held this seat for four terms and never had much difficulty winning (he had a close race in 92 only because of ethics issues). Could Ryan be a John Glenn esque heavyweight?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: whatever happened to the overperforming heavyweights? on: December 03, 2014, 02:14:44 am
To summarize - i will repeat my algorithm for choosing a candidates: put the district first! In practice: Democrats must run the most liberal candidate able to win this particular district. But if he is to the right of, say, Ralph Hall - run him without hesitation! Vice versa for Republicans -run the most conservative candidate  able to win this particular district. If he is to the left of Jacob Javits - run him! It's at least logical. And "party purity" be damned! As, in fact, it was in 1950th - 1970th, befaure first "Reagan cleanse" in Republican party and Democratic shift to "obligatory left"

true but you don't need Ralph Halls to win congresses - just more Ron Kinds and Eric Swalwells.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Southern Democrats Urge a Return to Basics on: December 03, 2014, 02:13:00 am
You will never have a sufficiently progressive Democratic Party on economics when you are having to depend on pro-choice Republicans in Montco/LI/Lake Counties and Democratic leaning Wall Street money to enable Democratic victory. They will never go for a tax rate above the Clinton rates, nor the numerous other things a progressive Democratic Party would do on the economy. Healthcare halted the GOP's decades long decline in those areas, and Clinton's tax hike had an even bigger impact there. Clinton got them to vote for him in 1996 because they hated Newt Gingrich and at the same time he convinced enough Southerners that he was one of them to keep LA, AR, TN, KY, MO and WV in line in 1996 (more a vote of personality and perception and notice how it didn't translate down ballot as Republican gains continued there. They lost the AR Senate seat even as Clinton won the state). It will take more then Hillary putting on a fake Southern accent to repeat the latter so she will try to double down on the former, with the "help" of the Republicans in Congress.

My point from before is that in order for a Progressive economic coalition to succeed, you need get "enough" poor and working class whites to vote Democrat, even in the South. Otherwise, enjoy your DLC (Democrats Like Clinton Tongue) party. Don't be surprised if she gets elected with a still rather secure Republican House and Senate majority also, though at least she is not Cuomo and won't plot to bring that about. Especially if Republicans in Congress were to grow a brain for once.

1) Montgomery County: which one - PA or MD? The latter has been dem at the presidential level for eons despite the fact that they elected liberal republicans (Gude, Steers, Morella)

2) My vision for the democratic party is a Clinton/Cuomo approach and to say that we aren't a bunch of proles (think Joni Ernst) and the demagoguery associated with it.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / is the term "white working class" a double count? on: December 02, 2014, 12:37:00 pm
An example of a double count for instance is minorities and young voters when many minorities are young voters. Is it possible that the white working class is a double count because many in the wwc are in occupations/backgrounds hostile to dems (i.e. army/law enforcement) and disproportionately evangelical compared to non working class whites (who are more mainline/unitarian/jewish).
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Where do y'all think Mario Cuomo went wrong? on: December 01, 2014, 08:31:25 pm


what year do you think this picture is? Considering the years Andy and Chris were born, I'm guessing this is the early 80s.
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