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December 10, 2016, 07:22:40 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: John Glenn Dead at 95 on: December 08, 2016, 04:17:52 pm
I wish we had u.s. senators like that. The dude was an electoral superstar - he got over 60% in three of his elections (though only won by 8-9 in 1992 for some reason).
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / is Georgia polarizing on metro-outstate lines? on: December 07, 2016, 06:09:51 pm
I mean obviously race is the biggest factor but a secondary division seems to be the atlanta metro vs the rest of the state. Looking at old almanac of american politics - it seemed like the state's politics was more uniform than it is now. The democrats (John Flynt, Ed Jenkins) were basically all southern populists and the few republicans that existed ranged from chamber of commerce types (think johnny isakson) to ideology warriors (think ben blackburn).

But it seems there was no major disagreements within the state. Looking at the 1982 almanac of american politics it mentions that there was some thought that gingrich might be drawn out of office but that the dems in the legislature (they had around a 3-1 majority then) didn't care much for party labels.

Are we reaching a point where the atlanta metro becomes sort of a fifth column on the state?
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Dave's Redistricting App Screwed? on: November 26, 2016, 07:02:21 pm
bump

is DRA still screwed come 11/30?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the Democrats were to "double-down" on their urban, elitist image... on: November 21, 2016, 11:32:46 pm
Lizzy Warren?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: In Virginia, 2016 Congressional Candidates under-performed Clinton MASSIVELY on: November 19, 2016, 12:25:51 am
i have no idea why this is. Isn't Virginia an ancestrally dem state? We see all the time how someone like Pat Meehan or what have you in an ancestrally R, R+2 area, why can't the dems do the same in Virginia (which is now D+2)?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: VA-2018: Kaine running on: November 17, 2016, 07:51:19 pm
easy 15 point win. Next.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Tim Ryan to challenge Nancy Pelosi for House Minority Leader on: November 17, 2016, 07:50:26 pm
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why did Scott Garrett lose? on: November 16, 2016, 04:30:22 pm
anyone see a comparison to Phil Crane in 2004, Vince Snowbarger in 1998, Bill Baker in 1996 and Dan Frisa in 96? All were congresscritters from mainly suburban (and in Frisa's case urban) districts where they were all defeated for either being too conservative or because of character flaws (Phil Crane had a drinking problem)
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / theory on why new england votes dem on: November 05, 2016, 11:00:32 am
my view is that there was sort of a precursor to white flight going on in that part of the country. The yankees moved out to Ohio, Indiana, and even as far as Kansas during the 19th century and they were replaced by Italians, Portuguese, Irish etc who voted dem. Anyone here agree with this?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PREDICT: NJ-05 Garrett (R) vs. Gottheimer (D) on: November 01, 2016, 07:48:18 pm
It's an R+4 district and 89% non-hispanic white, there's more favorable targets for Dems than NJ-5.

Yeah, but Garrett is a sub par incumbent who is not a very good fit for the district, with its fairly big chunk of upscale zip codes.
At best he's connected to the Christopher Smith/RFayette moderate/populist economic types. If he can play that up and adopt the ideology of Smith and Walter Jones, he should be safe until 2022.

Garrett is a massive POS - a combo of Viguerie/Weyrich type views and pathological lying. I'd compare it to Crane vs Bean in 04.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sen. Richard Burr privately jokes about gun owners shooting Clinton on: November 01, 2016, 10:20:19 am
Deplorable. He thinks this is the NC of the Jesse Helms era.

you mean when the dems always held the legislature?
12  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / death proofing juries on: September 30, 2016, 03:40:57 pm
anyone here think it might be unconstitutional? I know in Texas, they have a policy that in a case where the prosecution seeks the DP, you have to say that you support the DP to get on the jury. If pro-DP people are more likely to convict someone than anti-DP people (I'm not sure that's the case, but lets assume so) - isn't that giving defendants a bad hand in the guilt phase?
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: just saw Fast Times at Ridgemont High on: September 19, 2016, 08:12:20 pm
One of the most famous topless scenes in movie history.

I actually was surprised when I saw it the second time. I had forgotten that she didn't actually take her top off but it was a fantasy by Brad - only to have her come back into the house and catch him whacking off.
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / just saw Fast Times at Ridgemont High on: September 19, 2016, 03:18:40 pm
hadn't seen the movie in a while. The biggest thing I noticed is that Spicoli is really only a side character and the crux of the movie is about the inner circle of Brad and Stacy Hamilton. Although the movie is seen as one of the best 80s movies - does anyone here sort of notice a residual 70s feel to it? When I think of the 80s, I think of crack cocaine, and music like guns-n-roses or bon-jovi. None of that stuff seems to have fully settled in and they didn't even mention mtv during the movie.

15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Your opinion of this parody of The Young Turks? on: September 16, 2016, 04:40:57 pm
sargon chimes in - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV4pHtKe6ZE
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MO/GA/CO/AR-Emerson polls: Blunt in big trouble, other incumbents ahead on: September 15, 2016, 04:37:18 pm
don't most polls have Bennett up 15 points?
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: thoughts and musings on: September 09, 2016, 09:47:46 am
Patty Murray is a reliable, competent progressive footsoldier. Scoop was a self-important, race-baiting conservadem who was either useless or actively harmful to his party. Not sure exactly what your point is.

dude voted for civil rights. not sure what you're talking about.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: thoughts and musings on: September 08, 2016, 10:31:01 pm
And the rising political influence of women factors into this, how exactly? Roll Eyes
Would you rather have Nancy Kassebaum or Jerry Moran?

eh you have a point. I think this is more the case with democrats though. Republican women don't seem markedly different than republican men.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: thoughts and musings on: September 08, 2016, 08:07:24 pm
And the rising political influence of women factors into this, how exactly? Roll Eyes

see I'm still undecided either way whether it has something to do with it or not. To me, it has more to do with the fact that the sort of "manufactured" kind of candidate tends to be a woman. I mean would you rather want someone like Scoop/Maggie or Patty Murray for a senator?
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: thoughts and musings on: September 08, 2016, 06:23:11 pm
I know what you're talking about freepcrusher. I think you're talking about transactional politics, the type of politics that is like a business - you give me X in exchange for Y, is that right? The type that old political machines used to do. It wasn't about being liberal or conservative but just using government to get your piece of the pie.

bingo
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / thoughts and musings on: September 07, 2016, 10:04:35 pm
As some of you know, I posted a rant four years ago here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158425.msg3405535#msg3405535

Now, I was still forming my political views and I've started to identify what bothers me and what doesn't. One of the things I dislike about the democrats is not women qua women but rather the loss of local-minded politicians. Guys like Emanuel Celler would, for instance, come home to Brooklyn on the weekend and have constituent services in his house, often uninvited. It seems in those days, almost everyone in the district knew you by name and what not.

This is the point the pro-term limit people miss. It prevents you from getting to know your congressman and instead - leads to a sort of Manchurian Candidate type of thing. I also think the OMG HILLARY CLINTON IS CORRUPT people also miss the point. It's not that she's corrupt per se but that she seems manufactured. Guys like Jim Wright and Rosty were corrupt - but they were also guys who were friendly and not the type to be so caged in there responses and have a kajillion consultants telling them what to say. While it is true that neither Wright nor Rosty had much private sector experience - they seem like the type of guys who would have been working in the private sector had they not held elected office. They didn't have the sort of overeducated air to them that Clinton had.

Also, I'm of the view that ideology is the problem and that politicians should focus more on cutting ribbons, and bringing home public works projects. This is what I call "town and gown" issues. Looking at old almanacs, it is mentioned that a lot of older congressman dislike having Nader and his cohorts showing up to committee hearings and flooding the house/senate members offices. It seems that what Nader did was to change the house from a "all politics is local" type of deal to a pet-issues heavy legislative body.

This kind of factors also into education, for whatever reason people who are "educated" tend to be more partisan than those without an education and it seems that less educated people who are not stupid per se but have a modicum of common sense seem to be more reasonable in voting. It also seems that they are more likely to want the kind of "town and gown" type figure rather than a miseducated wonk. This ties back to the fact that the "educated" states of Colorado and Virginia seem to have less of the "town and gown" type of pols and the more overeducated NGO-manufactured type of candidate seems more the case. These type of people are also married to people who are also part of that class and its rare that they met there spouse in a non-governmental way (i.e. working at the same manufacturing business).

Now, do these trends have anything to do with the rise of women in politics (especially in the democrats)? I don't know, but it does seem too much of a coincidence that the rise of "pet issue politics" happened at the same time second-wave feminism began. It seems for whatever reason that women pols don't have the sort of "old school pork-barrel" type of feel to them (not that many male pols are like that either anymore but most of the remaining town and gown dems are male). Mary Landrieu, when she was in office, seemed like the only dem that fit that description.

Anyone here agree with me or sense what I'm getting at?

22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: name an area and describe the most prevalent ideology on: September 05, 2016, 09:28:14 pm
Des Moines Area


Purple/Magenta - white working class area. Makes up much of the city of DSM. 65-33 Obama in 2008. The area does vary though as the areas on the east and south sides sort of have a redneck feel to them while those on the west side sort of have a hipster/gentrifyer feel to them (like in the beaverdale neighborhood)

Blue - wealthy Democrats. 63-36 Obama in 2008

Green - Poor Minority Areas. Blacks and Hispanics combine for 50% or so and Obama won 79-19 in 2008.

Red - Downtown Area. 77% Obama in 2008

Gold - Inner-Ring Suburbs. Mostly built from WWII to the 1970s. Obama won this area by seven points in 2008. Still sends republicans to the legislature though.

Teal - wealthy outer suburbs. This is where the mcmansions are. I do hesitate to put Ankeny on there since it seems to be sort of a mix between the "Teal" and "Silver" category. 52.6-46 McCain in 2008

Silver - working class exurbs. This is basically people who want a more rural surrounding to raise there kids but want to live somewhere more affordable. Some of the areas have a really fundie feel to it while the area between the north side of Des Moines and Ankeny (i.e. Saydel) sort of has a seedy strip-club heavy air to it. This area was a virtual tie between Obama and McCain in 2008


Light Purple - rural areas - haven't yet seen widespread suburbanization and is still 95% white. McCain won here 53.1-44.9 in 2008.

23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: who are some actors who could play a musician in a biopic on: August 24, 2016, 02:44:59 am
Louis Garrel seems like a dead ringer for 1970s Glenn Frey: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2014/08/19/t-magazine/19garrell-barna/19garrell-barna-tmagSF.jpg
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / did krazen1211 quit the atlas forum? on: July 18, 2016, 08:25:44 pm
I just realized he hasn't been on here for 16 months.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: July 14, 2016, 01:06:09 am
Age: 60
Gender: Male
Race: White
Education: BA/MBA
Location: Sherman Oaks, CA
Occupation: Owner of a Porn Movie company, also has side businesses in the tabloid and casino industries
Religion: lapsed catholic
Hometown: Hempstead, NY
Marital status: Married, 1 child

Libertarian. Would vote GOP if they were less tied the "Moral Majority".

I could see him voting libertarian or not voting at all normally - but I definitely think he would be a Trump supporter
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