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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 03:36:27 pm
From my anecdotal dealings-
Democrats that are too liberal for their state: The majority of the Texas Democrat Party

i find that interesting since it wasn't all that long ago that people like Chet Edwards and Max Sandlin were in office

From my anecdotal dealings-
Republicans surprisingly moderate: Mississippi. This may shock some folks but the Mississippi GOP is not as conservative as people think.

the people in MS are temperamentally conservative but they're not CFGers. They're still big into pork (see Thad Cochran)
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 02:49:58 pm
I don't understand the question.

basically four questions:

what state democratic party is relatively liberal given how red the state is (i.e. utah democrats)
what state gop is relatively conservative given how blue the state is (i.e. california gop)
what state democratic party is relatively moderate-to-conservative given how blue the state is (i.e. RI dems)
what state republican party is pretty moderate-to-liberal given how red the state is (i.e. KS GOP)
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 02:47:23 pm
Massachusetts Legislative GOP is quite conservative. Mainly because they never matter. The Dems own the state leg, and are really two parties

Union/WWC/Centrist/DLC types (Stephen Lynch)
Progressive/Academic/POC types (Liz Warren)

surprised by that. I thought Charlie Baker (who never really endorsed Trump) is a typical Massachusetts repub.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / what state has a surprisingly on: February 17, 2017, 02:38:49 pm
liberal/moderate democratic party and conservative/moderate gop vis-a-vis the state?

I'd say:
Utah democrats
rhode island democrats
california gop
kansas gop
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-6? Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in the special election? on: February 14, 2017, 11:31:54 pm
anyone here think he kind of has that numale pajama-boy look to him? I'd vote for him but remember, this is Georgia - not New Jersey.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: why has Kansas traditionally had a visible moderate wing in there GOP? on: February 12, 2017, 11:21:51 pm
The "moderates" would have been right-wing Republicans 30 years ago, like Bob Dole.

i always assumed that a stereotypical Kansas moderate would not be bob dole but someone like NL Kassebaum.
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: why has Kansas traditionally had a visible moderate wing in there GOP? on: February 12, 2017, 09:59:56 pm
Quote from:  link=topic=258677.msg5519953#msg5519953 date=1486842530
I think to some extent this has always existed because many Republicans early on in KS were of Yankee stock, and the type of Republican that lives in some areas still reflects this early origin. The geographic lines are more blurred now but this was the dynamic.

I always assumed that Kansas, like most of the neighboring states, were settled by the scots-irish.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / why has Kansas traditionally had a visible moderate wing in there GOP? on: February 11, 2017, 01:49:32 pm
I mean compared to the states that border it - it kind of stands out. Also, are the moderates in the local republican party a mostly rural phenomenon or is it a mostly urban/suburban one (i.e. inside the 435)?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2020 redistricting in Texas on: February 08, 2017, 12:19:29 am
R+4, D-1 easily!

Democrats ruthlessly gerrymandered what they thought was a 22-8 Congressional delegation in 1991. Time for payback.

the gop is pretty much maxed out in the US House in Texas.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: This is why I do not like rematches: on: January 31, 2017, 07:03:23 pm
Adlai Stevenson learned this very well. The person who lost can still run for the office again, just not against the same person who you lost to last time.

Yup! Look at what happened with Russ Feingold.

That is why I am not buying into the Jason Kander Roy Blunt rematch in 2022. If Kander is smart he would try to for governor in 2020 or even attorney general. Incredibly Josh Hawley is already creating controversy.

Long shot but I would be interested to see if Jason Kander could compete in MO-02 if open. Though he is from the other side of the state so that could obviously be an issue even if Representatives need not live in the district they represent.

feingold would have won in a 2012 or better type of year
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / anyone think the only way teachers unions can work on: January 27, 2017, 04:42:29 pm
is if the school in question meets state benchmarks? My view is this - teachers unions should only be allowed in schools that meet state benchmarks because if schools that don't meet state benchmarks are allowed to have teachers to unionize - then it allows them to stuff the school with more bad students - which will lead to a need for more $$$ and to hire more teaching assistants, which will create a self-reinforcing mechanism to hire more and more people to unionize.

An example is in this 20 minute speech: http://hlmenckenclub.org/hlmc-audio/2014-bob-weissberg-the-left-and-education
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / interesting article on the reaction against trump on: January 24, 2017, 11:14:40 pm
has basically said everything i've been talking about for the past few years but in a more intellectual way:
https://medium.com/@CostinAlamariu/rule-of-the-global-eunuch-88ef02a3e64c#.tw9dvmwcm
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: ND 2018: If Cramer doesn't run against Heitkamp, is Heitkamp still vulnerable? on: January 24, 2017, 09:35:30 am
what about the possibility that republicans punt on it like Nebraska in 2006 and Heitkamp wins easily?
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: January 22, 2017, 03:34:09 am
Age: 36
Ethnicity: White
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Hometown: Ozone Park, NY
Occupation: Club Owner
Income: High five figures?
Religion: agnostic (dad was jewish, mom was italian)
Gender: Male
Marital Status: Engaged
Education: college dropout
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why does Oklahoma have so many registered democrats? on: January 21, 2017, 03:45:43 pm
Oklahoma swung heavily Republican in 1960.  Stevenson lost the state by only 10 points in 1956 but JFK lost it by 18 4 years later.  Why was that?

Oklahoma is a heavily baptist state and probably didn't like the boston-accented kennedy.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: what type of person would you expect these two people to be (primary edition) on: January 14, 2017, 02:06:48 am
how about this guy

1972 - Ed Muskie
1976 - Jimmy Carter
1980 - Jimmy Carter
1984 - Walter Mondale
1988 - Joe Biden then Dick Gephardt
1992 - Bill Clinton
2000 - Al Gore
2004 - Dick Gephardt
2008 - John Edwards then Hilary Clinton
2016 - Bernie Sanders
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: what cultural events marked the end or beginning of a decade? on: January 11, 2017, 12:30:39 am
you could also argue that there is sort of a core and a crossover era:

Core 1940s: Pearl Harbor to Korea
Transition 40s-50s: Korean War
Core 1950s: end of Korea-1960 election
Transition 60s: JFK presidency
Core 60s: assassination of JFK to 1967 or so
Fringe 60s-70s: premier of smothers brothers/laugh-in in 67 or 68 to rural purge in 1971
Core 70s: rural purge in 1971 to 77/78 (i.e. new wave like talking heads, blondie, clash)
fringe 70s/80s - 77/78 to 1982 or so (i.e. van halen's first five albums)
Core 80s: 82 or 83 up until 89 or so
fringe 80s/90s (basically whenever REM was popular)
Core 90s - somewhere in the 91-92 school year up to 97 or 98 (when backstreet boys, nsync, usher come onto the scene)
Fringe 90s/00s - first through fifth grades more or less for me (I graduated from hs in 09 so do the math)
Core 00s - 01/02 up until the crash of 08
Fringe 90s/00s - Obama's first term more or less.
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / what cultural events marked the end or beginning of a decade? on: January 09, 2017, 05:30:39 pm
50s
Beginning: election of Ike maybe
End: popularity of surf music

60s
Beginning: see above. No one event but I think the 60s came into being from late 1961 through early 1963 with surf music and what not
End: Rural Purge on TV.

70s
Beginning: Rural Purge on TV
End: Not sure. I would probably put it sometime in 1982 or 1983. Compare Van Halen's first four or five albums. By the time of there sixth album (1984) the 80s had totally taken over with synth and what not.

80s
Beginning: see above
end: recession of 92 and election of clinton. But I would say guns and roses "November Rain" hitting #1 on the charts in February 92 was a good demarcation point

90s
end: the 2001-2002 school year. 9/11 and if I remember right that's when boy band music started to fade.

00s
beginning: late 2001 and 2002.
end: Huh
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / what democrats got what seats? on: January 05, 2017, 04:10:54 pm
I'm guessing Farr and Honda's approprations spot went to Swalwell and Peters while Steve Israel's spot went to Meng or Rice.

As far as Ways and Means - I'm guessing Rangel's seat went to Higgins maybe (as he's been on the committee before) and McDermott's seat went to Denny Heck's. Becerra's seat probably goes to someone like Ami Bera or Juan Vargas.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: SC-5 special election: Vincent Sheheen for Congress? on: December 23, 2016, 03:11:31 pm
I love to think big, but this almost an R+10 district.

And not especially elastic to boot. "Normal" conservative Republican must win it without much difficulty. Only far-right winger may have some problems...

spratt won the seat 14 times.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: White Nationalist Richard Spencer May Run for Congress on: December 17, 2016, 01:50:37 pm
https://medium.com/@recnepss/does-love-really-live-here-fff159563ba3#.ernci7wx7
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / which is a more republican demographic? on: December 13, 2016, 02:03:53 pm
whites with college degrees making over 100K a year

OR

whites without college degrees making under 50K a year

people talk about the divide between whites with degrees and those without but the problem is that you have a lot of rich people who didn't go to college (which is probably 75-25 GOP) and a lot of people with worthless college degrees who are also heavily dem so that kind of skews the picture.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / why hasn't Massachusetts and Maine published results by county? on: December 11, 2016, 04:02:34 pm
just wondering
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: John Glenn Dead at 95 on: December 08, 2016, 04:17:52 pm
I wish we had u.s. senators like that. The dude was an electoral superstar - he got over 60% in three of his elections (though only won by 8-9 in 1992 for some reason).
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / is Georgia polarizing on metro-outstate lines? on: December 07, 2016, 06:09:51 pm
I mean obviously race is the biggest factor but a secondary division seems to be the atlanta metro vs the rest of the state. Looking at old almanac of american politics - it seemed like the state's politics was more uniform than it is now. The democrats (John Flynt, Ed Jenkins) were basically all southern populists and the few republicans that existed ranged from chamber of commerce types (think johnny isakson) to ideology warriors (think ben blackburn).

But it seems there was no major disagreements within the state. Looking at the 1982 almanac of american politics it mentions that there was some thought that gingrich might be drawn out of office but that the dems in the legislature (they had around a 3-1 majority then) didn't care much for party labels.

Are we reaching a point where the atlanta metro becomes sort of a fifth column on the state?
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