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May 27, 2015, 05:11:38 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: WA-PPP: Murray holding early leads on: May 26, 2015, 08:42:25 pm
This. The Pacific West is as inelastic as MS. This race is Safe D.

uh, what?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / percent of voters in midterm compared to previous presidential election on: May 26, 2015, 09:44:36 am
here are the years I have information for:
1930 67.3%
1934 82.5%
1942 56.2%
1946 71.7%
1950 82.9%
1954 69%
1958 73.7%
1962 74.4%
1966 74.9%
1970 74.1%
1974 67.3%
1978 66.9%
1982 73.8%
1986 64.5%
1990 68.1%
1994 67.5%
1998 69.2%
2002 70.9%
2006 66.2%
2010 66%
2014 61%
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats Face a Grim Future -National Journal on: May 25, 2015, 10:19:11 pm
Unless a bunch of House seats change their nature (let us say R+7 to D+5)  before then, it is highly unlikely that the Democrats will have a House majority before at least 2023. With America polarized as it is and gerrymanders intact, Democrats must win the total vote for the House by about 54-46.

We do not live in a democracy. We live in a plutocratic oligarchy.

the dems need to get an outright majority before they have a shot of taking over. Remember 48.8% (the % they got in 2012) was not a majority.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / SE Houston area (question for IndyTX) on: May 22, 2015, 10:48:25 pm
what's the reason why its so republican? I've been to the port before and the area around it kind of looked straight out of a victor hugo novel. I would expect it to be kind of like downriver Detroit and pretty dem leaning.

Yet A lot of the precincts in the SE corner of the county (and Galveston) are heavily republican. Is it possible that these voters are not blue-collar workers but actually sunbelt-types who are transplants and work at NASA (which I think is in that area)?
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: best and worst neighborhoods near airports on: May 22, 2015, 04:55:44 pm
SeaTac is probably the worst place in King County. Total rathole.

really, i thought it was middle-income white and asian suburbs. Even if it is the worst part of King County, its probably pretty nice by Bronx standards.
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: best and worst neighborhoods near airports on: May 21, 2015, 07:08:34 pm
The area around Chicago O'Hare is awful.

as someone who's flown out of both I can tell you that the area around O'Hare is pretty nice (isn't it in the Dupage area?). Midway on the other hand is on the edge of the barrio.
7  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / best and worst neighborhoods near airports on: May 19, 2015, 09:03:55 pm
taking into account the fact that any neighborhood near an airport could potentially be a noise issue (especially in a busy one) what are the best and worst in your opinion

If I recall, DFW is in one of the nicest parts of the metroplex (Southlake, Flower Mound)
on the other hand, JFK is near the most dangerous part of Queens (South Jamaica)

Others
- LAX is kind of on the line between bohemian (Marina Del Ray, Santa Monica) and middle class (El Segundo, Westchester) but is a good place to live as long as you're not too far inland

- Hartsfield is sandwiched in between some pretty nasty neighborhoods to the north and some meh and working class areas to the south.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrat's path to a majority in the House on: May 18, 2015, 05:23:43 pm
Democrats have to pick up 30 seats in order to get a majority in the House of Representatives. Here are some seats likely needed in order to do so.

AZ-02, AR-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CO-06, FL-13, FL-26, IL-10, IL-12, IL-13, IA-01, IA-03, ME-02, MI-01, MI-07, MI-08, MN-02, NV-03, NV-04, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-05, NY-01, NY-11, NY-19, NY-21, NY-24, PA-06, PA-08, TX-23, VA-02, VA-10, WA-08, WV-02, WI-07

There are 36 seats here, so they have to win 83% of these in order to get the majority. If there is already a thread on this, I apologize.



Some problems:

AR-02 - difficult with  heavy republican swing in this state

IL-12. Southern Illinois swung to Republicans too

IL-13 Adequate Republican congressman, who will be difficult to beat

MI-08 AFAIK - relatively weak Democratic bench and relatively strong Republican tradition on local level despite rather good Democratic presidential numbers.

MN-02. Generally conservative district with solidly conservative bit unoffensive Republican.

NV-03. Heck is a rather talented congressman  and pragmatic conservative to boot.

NJ-03 MacArthur is very adequate representative of this swingy, but usually Republican on congressional level district - conservative, but not VERY conservative. He isn't Lonegan

NJ-05 Garrett is a right-wing extremist, but district is conservative enough.

NY-11 Donovan fits district as hand fits glove. Police union is popular there. Only scandal may doom him

NY-21. Stefanik isn't a fiery right-winger, and district's tradition is very Republican (Owens was the only Democrat representing it i may remember and he was anything, but liberal)

PA-08. Bucks county has better Republican (and not especially conservative, what's good for suburban district) then Democratic bench

WI-07 Duffy seems rather entrenched and, while solidly conservative - not especially offensive.

So (IMHO of course) - -12 and no chances (for majority) except in really BIG wave.



The democrats need to stop pretending they can't win these seats. If someone like Mark Warner could come close to losing, then some of these guys can be defeated - especially the guys who got below 60%.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict the House Makeup After 2016 on: May 18, 2015, 05:21:19 pm
the democrats need to throw everything they've got at the HOR. I had always thought the 230-odd seats the republicans held after 1994 should be a highwater mark. There's no reason the dems shouldn't be holding as many seats as they did after 1994.

I'm starting to think that the DCCC is turning into the way the RNCC was under Guy Vanderjagt.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / why are criminal defense lawyers overwhelmingly male? on: May 16, 2015, 12:57:20 am
I watch a lot of crime shows and would surmise that DAs and ADAs are about 50/50 male-female. When it comes to defense lawyers, I'd guess it would be more 85-15 male-female.

Being a crimdef lawyer has to be pretty hard since in most cases, the ball is already in the red zone and a trial (if the defendant doesn't plead guilty) is a mere 1-yard dive play. Since lawyers were disproportionately male in the past, is it possibly because most criminal defense lawyers have years of experience (and many started out as prosecutors) and many female lawyers are just starting out (thus in DA offices) that explains this?
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Is Oklahoma Southern? on: May 13, 2015, 05:21:08 pm
parts of it are: the old 3rd definitely is while the rest of the state is more has a Great Plains/Kansasy feel to it
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / how would you classify the political eras of the U.S. house? on: May 13, 2015, 04:00:00 pm
Era 1: 1995-
Republicans have mostly had control during this time period and this has been more trench warfare politics and the rise of winner-take-all, zero-sum battles. That's not to say politics weren't ugly but it seems its more noticeable now. Someone like Gingrich, DeLay, Pelosi are definitely products of this environment

Era 2: 1975-1995; Dems have control and often have enough of a cushion to offset dixiecrats. The politicians of this era tended to be smart at holding otherwise difficult seats. I'm not sure what politicians define this era but a few are: Philip Burton, Mo Udall, and many of the watergate children like Phil Sharp or Tom Downey. You also had an influx of "acceptable-to-all-factions" southern democrats like Butler Derrick and Stephen Neal from the Carolinas and a few others.

Era 3: 1959-1975; This was the flux era between the conservative coalition and the post-watergate party. There were a lot of changes going on in this era in the U.S. and the same could be said for congress. By 1958, the dems had solidified control of the HOR but there was still vestiges of conservatism as a lot of the would-be-committee chairmen were defeated in 1946. As a result you still had a lot of unreconstructed types holding power (Judge Smith). This was the era of the Democratic Study Group and what not and the evolution of what liberalism meant. Many pols thought to be liberals were all of a sudden not as new issues came into the fore (think Chet Holifield, Philip Philbin, Jim Delaney etc). Guys like Holifield, Philbin, and Delaney were the type of pols who defined this area as the bridge between the insurgents (DSG) and the dixiecrat types.

Era 4: 1939-1959; This was the era of the Conservative Coalition with the democrats not often being above 60% and the republicans often having enough southern democrats to peel off support. In fact up to half of the democratic caucus during this era was from the deep south and the rest were border state blue dogs and big city machine types willing to go along to get along. This is the height of the red scare era and the pols defining this era would be the red-baiters (Parnell Thomas, John Rankin, Martin Dies) and the Midwestern Old Right (Clare Hoffman, Noah Mason, Clarence Brown). The 1958 election, especially in the senate, ends up with these guys losing (in the senate Bricker, Jenner, Malone, McCarthy all either lose or would have lost had they not died/retired).

Era 5: 1933-1939; This is the New Deal era with the democrats basically having the power to do whatever they wanted. The number of seats they held were unsustainable and by 1938, the economy had relapsed, the midwest was wary that Roosevelt might get into WWII, and some pro-New Deal democrats began to turn on him when Roosevelt was recruiting people to primary incumbents. The New Deal in many ways was a collection of various third party movements, many of them crackpot before the Depression that had some success (Francis Townsend, William Lemke, Charles LaFollette, James Weaver). This was also the peak era of the agrarian radical as there were many third party officeholders in MN and WI. By 1947 though the Wheelers, LaFollettes and Shipsteads were mostly gone.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Polk County, FL on: May 12, 2015, 08:00:42 pm
anyone here think that that's what Orlando would look like without Disneyworld/Seaworld etc?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: should democrats have convinced many old-timers to retire in 2006 on: May 11, 2015, 05:54:57 pm
It may have helped in 2008.  Almost all of the class of 2006 seats were held by Dems in 2012.

I'm talking more about the HOR
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / should democrats have convinced many old-timers to retire in 2006 on: May 11, 2015, 02:44:25 pm
much like how some republicans in marginal seats did this year?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislatures 1993-2017 on: May 10, 2015, 08:34:51 pm

I fully expect that the bottom will fall out for the downballot GOP in a similar manner in the Bush-Obama states the next time Republicans have full federal control.  The realignment just isn't complete quite yet.

I expect those SW Wisconsin seats to go dem next time an R is in the whitehouse.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NY-11 Special Election Thread on: May 10, 2015, 02:59:07 pm
Quote from: =topic=204565.msg4590212#msg4590212 date=1430889424
I can only laugh at Democratic voter's complete impotence in specials.

Smolty is one of my favorite posters but he's wrong on this count. Don't forget that dems won MS-1, LA-6 and IL-14 in 07-08 off year.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did McGovern get any Southern whites? on: May 10, 2015, 01:04:23 am
His margins were so low in the South that I almost doubt he won any Deep Southern white voters.

interestingly Morris Dees was involved with the mcgovern campaign.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / democrats only: who do you want as speaker on: May 08, 2015, 01:36:30 pm
for me its Crowley - he's only 53 and has a similar profile to Israel (inoffensive NE congressman) but is in a safe enough district he doesn't have to worry about any impediments to his career.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / what type of accent does Mike in Breaking Bad/BCS have? on: May 06, 2015, 05:04:56 pm
he's from Philadelphia, but there's no discernible Philly accent that I know of. It sounds kind of like a Boston accent.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / opinion of MGTOW on: May 03, 2015, 10:31:01 pm
the ideology itself has something to it, but I vote #3.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NYT: The Democratic coalition ≠ True Leftists and coastal liberal elites on: April 30, 2015, 12:18:33 pm
i doubt Warren would do that well in a dem primary among affluent private-sector democrats. Clinton seems more of a new dem and a better fit for those type of voters.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Former US Rep. Bruce Alger (R-TX) dead at 96 on: April 28, 2015, 03:38:05 am
Alger was an interesting fellow and was one of the earlier progenitors of what became the "new right". He never was a fully out of closet bircher but it was pretty obvious what tree he was barking up. At the time JFK was shot and when Alger was congressman, Dallas had a reputation as being a stronghold of the lunatic fringe - Edwin Walker, HL Hunt, the Citizens Councils, JBS etc.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: How Austrians would have voted in previous Presidential elections on: April 28, 2015, 03:25:11 am
are you referring to Austrians as Mises or Austrians as people living in Austria?
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / opinion of Tommy Sotomayor on: April 25, 2015, 10:20:34 pm
probably one of the most brutally honest and humorous commentators on YouTube these days.
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