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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 47,076 people... on: February 13, 2013, 12:52:32 pm
How about the 21,381 people in DC who voted for the party whose core message is to destroy DC's economy?

As opposed to the 90.91% of the city who voted themselves jobs and public assistance paid for with other peoples' money
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Who voted for who? on: January 24, 2013, 09:01:28 pm
The numbers are how Vietnamese Americans have traditionally voted. This year, however, Republicans got positively slaughtered in all the heavily Vietnamese places. It's what happens when you tell your voters to self-deport.
We're talking 40 point swings here.

Disgraceful falsehood.  Nobody told legal immigrants to self-deport. 

Shut the f**k up
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 Write in votes on: January 14, 2013, 05:56:44 pm
Well I certain he has the correct results on the write-in votes from South Carolina. Grin South Carolina doesn't allow for write-in votes for Electors.

SC, MS, LA, AR, OK, NM, SD and HI  are nice and easy. More states should be like that
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Map of counties that flipped in 2012 on: January 14, 2013, 05:55:30 pm
It's surprising that no counties in the deep South switched to Romney, and instead Obama actually gained some. Looks the Black population is slowly rising in its proportion of the population, and we might see many more blue counties in states like Mississippi and Alabama a few decades from now.

The map is incorrect.  Chattahoochee county, GA flipped from Obama to Romney.

That being said, the Republicans are just about maxed out the number of counties they can win in the south.  It's quite polarized down there by racial lines.  It's not so much the black population growing but that black turnout ticked up a little in MS/LA and white turnout dipped slightly
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Map of counties that flipped in 2012 on: January 14, 2013, 05:53:40 pm
It's surprising that no counties in the deep South switched to Romney, and instead Obama actually gained some. Looks the Black population is slowly rising in its proportion of the population, and we might see many more blue counties in states like Mississippi and Alabama a few decades from now.

The Republicans have probably maxed out the number of counties they can win in the south.  It's quite polarized down there by racial lines.  It's not so much the black population growing but that black turnout ticked up a little in MS/LA and white turnout dipped slightly
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / 2012 Write in votes on: January 05, 2013, 03:00:18 pm
Okay this write in thing is bothering me.  In some states Dave is counting ALL write ins whether it was a certified candidate or not.  In others he's only counting certified ones.  In other states no write ins are counted yet.  I feel like it should be uniform.

I'm still not sure if I should count Obama at 50.01 or 49.91 in Florida!
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races on: January 03, 2013, 01:58:46 pm
Landrieu loses 4% off the top for the drop in black turnout that will occur do to it being a mid term year
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: January 03, 2013, 01:56:16 pm
When you add write in votes, NE-3 is actually only 69.94% Romney

WV 2 is at 60.01% Romney without any write ins included so that will drop a shade

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most painful 2008 ==> 2012 map for you on: December 31, 2012, 04:37:10 pm
Is it sad that as a Democrat I'm upset that the GOP can't manage to run a caucus properly?
Iowa, Maine both "finding" delegates and votes for Romney(Maine) or not being able to count the votes(Iowa)... makes wonder if the 2012 GOP race was rigged...

Coming from someone whose state couldn't count 400,000 votes until 8 weeks after the election?  That makes me wonder...
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Guess what, New York State has finally certified their election results on: December 31, 2012, 04:34:37 pm
They clearly stayed home.  Turnout was down big in Alaska.

Obama lost 954 votes of his 2008 performance, a negligible change
Romney lost 29,165 votes off McCain, a major drop off

Still, Romney did well in the Mat-Su region (Wasilla)

My Palin explanation is just a hypothesis, but it is plausible
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Guess what, New York State has finally certified their election results on: December 31, 2012, 04:12:10 pm
AK: Palin fans ticked at Romney not embracing her
MS-LA: Evangelical Christians not thrilled with Romney (same reason Repub vote total dropped in Tenn, Alabama, Okla) In LA white turnout was same % as 08 but black turnout ticked up 2%

NY-NJ: You know..

MD:  Trending Democratic at a rate far above any nat'l average.  Fast growing democratic constituents, Republicans slowly trickling out

--------

In NY Obama won at least one county in each of the 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90 percent ranges. Well done there
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 Pres statistical oddities on: December 26, 2012, 01:59:21 pm
Counties where Obama earned the same vote total in 08 and 12
Carlton, GA
Harding, NM
King William, VA

Counties where McCain/Romney earned the same vote total in 08 and 12

Henderson, IL
Bullock, GA
Norton, KS
Owsley, KY
Valley, NE
Dawson, NE


AND!  Salem NJ was a tie between Romney-Obama.  First since Pend Oreille, WA in 1988
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 Pres statistical oddities on: December 26, 2012, 01:50:33 pm
Looking at all counties that swung 10.00% or more the total was 691 R to 5 D

The 5 D I referenced in my last post.  Without naming them the R's are
Missouri 77
Illinois 73
Indiana 70
Texas 53
Kentucky, West Virginia 41
North Dakota 38
Montana 35
South Dakota 34
Michigan 31
Wisconsin 28
Utah 27
Nebraska 19
Pennsylvania 17
Tennessee 14
Iowa, Kansas 13
Virginia 11
Minnesota, Nevada 8
Arkansas, Ohio, Wyoming 7
Idaho 6
Colorado 5
Georgia 2
Louisiana, Maryland, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Washington 1
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 Pres statistical oddities on: December 26, 2012, 01:22:39 pm
Strongest Republican swings among the counties

I count 62 that swung 20.00% or more Republican

Illinois (14) Gallatin, White, Lawrence, Edgar, Clark, Jasper, Wabash, Wayne, Edwards, Calhoun, Jersey, Clay, Clinton, Saline
Indiana (6) Dubois, Knox, Clay, Vermillion, Rush, Putnam
Kentucky (15) Knott, Pike, Magoffin, Floyd, Union, Perry, Breathitt, Morgan, Letcher, Wolfe, Elliot, Webster, Muhlenberg, Menifee, McLean
North Dakota (1) Stark
Pennsylvania (1) Elk
Texas (1) McMullen
Utah (8 ) Carbon, Cache, Wasatch, Juab, Daggett, Sanpete, Tooele, Salt Lake
Virginia (6) Buchanan, Dickenson, Tazewell, Russell, Wise, City of Norton
West Virginia (9) Boone, McDowell, Webster, Nicholas, Mingo, Wyoming, Logan, Clay, Lincoln
Wisconsin (1) Waupaca

Top ten were
Boone WV 42.21
Knott KY 39.73
McDowell WV 38.42
Pike KY 36.71
Webster WV 33.13
Magoffin KY 32.84
Floyd KY 32.57
Nicholas WV 32.04
Gallatin IL 31.05
Mingo WV 30.56

Only one county swung 20.00% or more Democratic so I bumped the threshold down to 10.00%  Still that only yielded 5

Saint Bernard, LA 20.77
Clark, ID 12.74
Reeves, TX 11.00
Webb, TX  10.57
Saint John the Baptist, LA  10.10


Notable takeaways:

Most of the Republican ones are coal counties
Salt Lake stands out as it's by far the most populous of them all

St Bernard is quite an outlier
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / 2012 Pres statistical oddities on: December 23, 2012, 03:05:15 pm
Found this by accident.  Going out on a limb that it's the smallest swing of any county

Dodge County, GA  0.0000692% swing Republican
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: $8.9 million of taxpayer money was spent on the Romney transition team on: December 23, 2012, 02:57:06 pm
My undergraduate senior thesis class was on Presidential transition.  The money was well spent because had Romney won the transition period would have been a very important time for which proper planning was needed
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Funny 2016 what-if in Missour on: December 20, 2012, 03:27:35 pm
Lt Gov Kinder vs SoS Kander gubernatorial race.  Haha
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The best a Democrat can do in West Virginia (2016) on: December 20, 2012, 03:18:23 pm
Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.

Doubtful. She'd lose WV, KY and TN by single digits at best. She'd probably win Arkansas in a very narrow surprise, kind of like when Obama won NC in 2008. Louisiana is long gone for the Democrats.

This erroneous thinking stems from many Democrats' belief that Obama did so badly in WV, TN, AR, MO, KY because he's black.  Its not.  It's because he's a DEMOCRAT, a far left one at that.  Hillary could possibly get back above 40% in some of those states but they will still be Republican by at least 10%
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: O'Malley may try to push for Maryland death penalty repeal by end of his term on: December 19, 2012, 09:56:19 pm
He's been my least favorite governor on the Dem side for awhile now...this just cements that sediment...

I don't get people who feel strongly for keeping the death penalty. I mean it's one thing to say "okay, we should leave this option open", but another thing entirely to be all "let's kill people, yeah!"

Because when someone commits heinous murder, as many Marylanders do, they should be dealt severe punishment.

We have de-facto repeal here anyway thanks to O'Malley's stupid law which makes it almost impossible to use the death penalty.  I think there must be video tape evidence to even have a chance
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The best a Democrat can do in West Virginia (2016) on: December 19, 2012, 09:53:46 pm
Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?

I recall so many of you scoffing when I said repeatedly that Obama would hit an historic low for Democrats in WV.

Some of you goons even said Obama would IMPROVE in WV (And Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas...)  Hahaha

Clinton would not win Ark, Tenn, Ky or W. Va. 

Next...
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Vote counting update thread on: December 18, 2012, 01:33:09 pm
Dave has no write-in votes in the totals for Washington state, WV and Missouri.
Ohio, Utah and PA write in totals are incomplete.  Some counties don't have them listed yet.

Some California counties' vote totals declined slightly from what I had off the county clerks' websites, perhaps indicating that some write in ballots were dropped from the count before certification
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Vote counting update thread on: December 08, 2012, 08:19:23 pm
This is truly beyond pathetic. Not even a Fourth-World country would still be counting votes.

Well thanks to all the vote-by-mail, encouraged mostly by Democrats, it takes forever.  If 90% of voters did so on Election Day at their precinct, we'd be done

Washington's turnout was 81%; the highest in the county.

'Shame on the Democrats for encouraging that Tongue

High turnout is not a good thing if a bunch of ignorant and uninformed people are voting.  I'd rather there be just 30% turnout if the 30% are very informed and engaged on the issues.

Also, it was you guys who were bitching about the vote counting taking forever, not me.  I was telling you why, and my comment was a correct explanation
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Is Romneys MA performance the worst home state performance in history? on: December 08, 2012, 08:10:20 pm
Even though he lost, as we all knew, he earned the best Republican performance since 1988.  I was hoping for 40.01% but that was clearly asking too much

Doing only 0.7 points better than Dubya when Kerry was the Dem candidate is hardly an exploit...

Nevertheless, it is true.  It's not a surprise.  Mass is heavily Democratic in its presidential voting..
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Vote counting update thread on: December 06, 2012, 07:30:28 pm
I'm currently at:

O: 65,435,746 50.93 (-4,063,682)
R: 60,764,885 47.29 (+814,562)

My calculation has as many write in votes included as I could find

All but NE, WV, TN, TX, PA, CO, NM, NJ, NY, CA being official
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Anne Arundel County Maryland on: December 06, 2012, 07:23:02 pm
This surprised me a bit.  I think there are Democrats moving into the Severn, Laurel area and commuting to DC from there.  Personally I have two Obama voting friends that moved from downtown Baltimore to Annapolis.  That accounted for 2 of the votes in Obama's swing
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