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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Niagara County, NY: The most polarized and inelastic county in the nation?
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on: November 11, 2012, 04:42:01 pm
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The thing with Niagara County is you have the city of Niagara Falls which is heavily black and votes like any other minority-majority city, then you have some democratic leaning suburbs of Buffalo (ie. North Tonawanda and Lockport), some cute wine country towns like Lewiston, which if I had to guess are also Democratic learning, the incredibly wealthy Escarpment area which again, I assume is slightly Democratic leaning, and then the rest of the county is farm country which is heavily Republican. All of this makes for a very polarized county which doesn't budge from election to election.
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your top 3 senate races you most care about on election night?
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on: November 04, 2012, 02:17:21 pm
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1. Wisconsin- A Tammy Baldwin win would be a historic win on so many levels. In addition, it would help put a hold on the narrative that Scott Walker has made Wisconsin a safe GOP state. Her voice is needed in the Senate. And Tommy Thompson is one person whose career I would love to see end because he was just too lazy to run a good campaign in a race that should have been his.
2. New Mexico- Martin Heinrich seems like he's someone that could have a bright future in the Democratic party. I would certainly like to see where he goes.
3. Missouri- I moved from New York to Missouri to go to medical school and have lived in the state for a couple of years now. I never particularly liked Claire... she always came across as to populist and as an old school kind of Democrat for me. However, I saw her speak when she came to my University and she really changed my opinion of her. In addition, the idea of having a Senator Akin just makes me slightly nauseous.
Runner ups: Massachusetts & Ohio.
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread
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on: October 31, 2012, 06:09:26 pm
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CO looks ok so far for Obama.
Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.
In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.
Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.
Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.
I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states? They don't. Republicans are outperforming voter registration in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. Colorado is such that it has more Republicans than Democrats and they are soaring to the polls this time. Tender Branson is saying in 2010, the early voting was R+6 but ultimately Bennet won by 1%...nobody's disputing right now it's R+3, which seems to imply a narrow Obama victory. I'm listening very intently, krazen. Of course. He and you both presume that independents will vote the same in this election as they did in those. Why would that be so? In that same 2010 election Republicans won 3 statewide offices and the aggregate house vote by 5 points. Of course they had better candidates in those races than Mr. Buck. I'll give you that Romney is an infinitely better candidate than Buck, I don't think anyone would deny that, but I also think that people underestimate the extent to which Obama is a better candidate than Bennett was. Lets not forget, Obama has actually won a state wide election in this state, where as in 2010, Bennett had not, and was appointed by an unpopular governor to fill a vacant senate seat. In addition, Bennett was the superintendent of the Denver public schools, not a well known figure in CO, until he was appointed to the senate, and really, until the 2010 campaign began. My point is, when we are comparing states like Nevada and Colorado which elected Democratic senators in 2010 because of flawed republican nominees, it is easy to over look the fact that the Democrats that won were extremely flawed as well, and Obama, like Romney, may to some extent be a better candidate. I will also concede that the 2012 early voting certainly makes Colorado look more favorable to the Republicans than it did 2008, but I also don't think that anyone can say with confidence that this race is anything more than a tossup right now.
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Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: If Obama Wins Who Will be in his Second Term Cabinet?
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on: October 28, 2012, 06:50:49 pm
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If Obama wins I hope Kerry gets SOS, I just feel like after everything is his career he deserves it. The Dems in MA do need to make sure that Scott Brown doesn't get his old seat back though, which would entail Patrick appointing himself or a lame duck place holder to fill the seat until he runs for the seat or, as someone else mentioned, appoint a Kennedy to the seat.
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