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101  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Blair approved the Iraq War in 2002 - does it change your opinion of him? on: October 18, 2015, 04:30:16 pm
Just confirms what I think many already believed. Perhaps now the Guardian will stop printing his sage advice for Labour, but I doubt it.
102  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Your political views become centrist for your country. on: October 18, 2015, 04:24:04 pm
Probably a social democratic split* from - and quickly propelled - into chief opposition to a Marxist Labour party, with left-liberals like Corbyn at the helm.  Liberals & Tories marginalised also-rans crucified by the electoral system into Green/UKIP-like oblivion.

*on a platform of state interventionism, nuclear disarmament but favouring remaining inside the EU and strict immigration & tempered social conservatism.
103  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who is more left-wing? on: October 18, 2015, 04:07:43 pm
People who argue the UK Tories are markedly left of the Republicans I can only presume pay little  attention to UK politics, or are just repeating platitudes that haven't been true for decades (and make even less sense now they're lumping us into a continent swept by austerocrats).

But muh gay marriage (that more Tories voted against than for) & socialist healthcare (that they're busily starving & privatising).
104  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Poland election - October 25 2015 on: October 16, 2015, 08:56:21 am
So basically a coalition of all parties on the left struggle to muster 10% while a vehicle for someone like Korwin gets half that by itself.

Abort thread!
105  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: the missing Portugal-thread on: October 10, 2015, 01:32:09 pm
This? (page 2, page 3, page 4)
106  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Spanish General Election on: October 08, 2015, 04:01:59 am
Voted Podemos, but would just as likely vote IU if they were better placed.
107  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015 on: October 08, 2015, 03:52:08 am
From where I'm standing, FF actually now look less off-putting than either the [REDACTED] party or the "we'll accept absolutely anything, no matter how right-wing, as long as we get some culture war brownie points" excuse for a social democratic party that I'm embarrassed to say I've usually voted for in the past.

There, I've said it.

I'm sure this is exactly what the Irish public had in mind when they launched them into the chief opposition in those heady days of 2011. Why did they even coalesce with FG if they were just going to act as enablers and grant them a super-majority? A minority FG would've at least had some viable opposition, and Labour best placed to break the FF/FG duopoly in years.

A FF vote wouldn't enable FG like these quislings, I'll at least give them that. I don't understand how these eternal Nick Cleggs have survived, or what the Irish did to deserve such a f**king awful Labour party.
108  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 19, 2015, 05:09:25 pm
I'm not saying Labour should loudly proclaim that they've given up on Scotland. And it sure would be nice if they could win back a few seats there as well. But I'm getting sick and tired of this bogus narrative that Labour absolutely needs to "reconquer" Scotland of they're doomed forever. That's a flat out lie and can be contradicted with basic math. Even if Labour had won every single seat in the entire Scotland, you'd still end up with Prime Minister Cameron, because he just won enough seats in England and Wales for an absolute majority.

So I don't give a crap if you don't want to have to deal with those nasty SNPers. The primary goal of any sane British leftist right now should be to stop the Tories before they completely wreck public services and the welfare system. If you're more concerned about something else, that means you're part of the problem.

Bloody hell, have you even been paying attention? It's not a case of not wanting to deal with "nasty" SNPers (I actually quite welcome their influence in parliament), but there was no doubting that association with the SNP, trumped up by the Tory press, cost Labour in SNP-phobic England, so how on earth does that help us fight the Tories? Yes, let's fight the Tories by losing Labour-leaning voters to them! Great idea.

I highly doubt association with SNP is the first thing the marginal Middle England voter is thinking about when deciding to vote Torie. I can envision why that might be a problem (especially after a Lab-SNP coalition happens), but that's far from being the main issue. Maybe Labour should be concerned about the image they are themselves projecting, before thinking about how another party's negative image is affecting them.

It wasn't the first thing, but it was employed during the campaign to some effect - likely to be even more so now the SNP are looking to a hold another referendum, to Tory opposition. The prospect (yes, voters don't ignore it until it's actually happened), inflated by the Tories, was a problem for Labour at May's election when all the safe Blairites were in charge, and their image projection was carefully media-managed.

I do not see that a Labour minority government, dependent upon SNP acceptance that a Labour government would be better than a Conservative one, would be impossible.

The British hostility to Irish nationalism, in 1886-1914, was considerably stronger than English antipathy to the SNP. It did not prevent Liberal minority governments being formed in 1892-95 and 1910-14.

It's not impossible, no, but there's a reason the Tories ran with it.
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 19, 2015, 04:00:03 pm
I'm not saying Labour should loudly proclaim that they've given up on Scotland. And it sure would be nice if they could win back a few seats there as well. But I'm getting sick and tired of this bogus narrative that Labour absolutely needs to "reconquer" Scotland of they're doomed forever. That's a flat out lie and can be contradicted with basic math. Even if Labour had won every single seat in the entire Scotland, you'd still end up with Prime Minister Cameron, because he just won enough seats in England and Wales for an absolute majority.

So I don't give a crap if you don't want to have to deal with those nasty SNPers. The primary goal of any sane British leftist right now should be to stop the Tories before they completely wreck public services and the welfare system. If you're more concerned about something else, that means you're part of the problem.

Bloody hell, have you even been paying attention? It's not a case of not wanting to deal with "nasty" SNPers (I actually quite welcome their influence in parliament), but there was no doubting that association with the SNP, trumped up by the Tory press, cost Labour in SNP-phobic England, so how on earth does that help us fight the Tories? Yes, let's fight the Tories by losing Labour-leaning voters to them! Great idea.

Anyway, polls:

YouGov CON 39 (-2), LAB 31 (+1), UKIP 16 (+3), LD 6 (-1)
ComRes CON 42 (+2), LAB 30 (+1), UKIP 13 (=), LD 7 (-1),  SNP 5 (=), GRN 3 (-1)
Opinum CON 37 (-1), LAB 32 (+1), UKIP 14 (+1), LD 6 (-2), SNP 5 (=), GRN 4 (=)

Not exactly amazing, but not terrible either, considering this week's been dreadful. 
110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 19, 2015, 03:01:02 pm
The fact is, as afleitch here demonstrates, SNP's constituents are varied and many care more about independence (especially their leadership). A Labour party not offering to sign off on another referendum will not be supported by the SNP, and if they do, then unionist Labour voters will punish them for it. 

It's a little more complex than that. If Scottish politics settles on a unionist-nationalist axis, with the SNP standing in one corner and the Scottish Tories (who for many working class conservatives were actually detoxified in the referendum) breathing down Labour's neck, then what need is there for Labour in Scotland? What about 'Orange Labour' (something always there but now exposed in Labour's decomposition)? Having 'IRA sympathisers' in the top job is not exactly going to be endearing to whatever is left of their west central Scotland party machine.

Labour keep making an assumption they will always be there and that they always have a constituency of voters no matter what they do or don't do. They really ought to be a little concerned with what's happened this last week.

You claim it's more complex and then bring out the laughable notion that there is only a unionist & nationalist divide, and there is no longer a need for a party that a) isn't Tory b) doesn't want independence - just so happening to be the majority of Scotland. As a Tory Separatist it just sounds like wishful thinking. If the Tories are so detoxified why are they still languishing in third place?
111  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 19, 2015, 02:33:32 pm
Of course, who knows, maybe this isn't an either/or situation.

Maybe. But the focus should be on taking seats away from the Tories. Certainly not on taking seats away from a party that would coalize with you anyway if push came to shove.

It's obviously also important to win seats in Con-Lab marginals - however, done with social democratic answers (higher minimum wage, rent caps to bring down welfare spending for instance). If done correctly - it could bring disenfranchised, the young, Green voters, and importantly those working class offered little by liberalism & voting for UKIP & BNP.

More triangulation with the Tories might win the minority of Lab > Con switchers back, but at further cost to the Greens and abstention.
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 19, 2015, 02:19:36 pm
so it's vital that Labour becomes more attractive to Scotland for its own survival.

Not it's not. All you need to do is prevent Tories from winning an absolute majority and enter a coalition with SNP. There's no question SNP will choose to prop up a Labour government, as their voters would never forgive them for keeping a Torie government afloat.

Focusing on Scotland is the exact opposite of what Labour should do. You need to take seats away from the Tories in England, or they'll have a majority forever.

It's all well and good saying that, and a Labour government should certainly work with the SNP, but a Labour party that's given up on forming a majority again, and is beholden to SNP support, is very easily exploited by the Tory press and alienates the very same Labour-leaners identifying as more likely to vote Tory now because of Corbyn's election.

Also history tells us differently - the SNP helped bring Callaghan down after all. The fact is, as afleitch here demonstrates, SNP's constituents are varied and many care more about independence (especially their leadership). A Labour party not offering to sign off on another referendum will not be supported by the SNP, and if they do, then unionist Labour voters will punish them for it. 
113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 19, 2015, 12:20:55 pm
What large swing in turn of events in just 10 years.  Back in 2005 I recall one can with legitimate arguments, say "Can the CONs win again?".  Now, with Corbyn in charge and another redistricting coming up one can with legitimate arguments say "Can the LABs  win again?"  What a difference a couple of redistricting taking away the natural LAB advantage in terms of vote share to seat translation plus a change in LAB leadership make in 10 years.

A couple of things wrong with that, experts like Thrasher have already outlined that equitable constituencies were a minority of that advantage - unequal turnout (large turnout in safe Tory seats & poor turnout in safe Labour seats made for a larger Tory share of the vote, but equal seats) and tactical voting to keep Tories out were a far bigger advantage (that last one has unwound - as we witnessed the well-deserved collapse of the Lib Dems).

The far bigger threat, as Curtice has outlined, is that without the 40 odd Scottish seats the swings Labour need to make up for them begin to look impossible (upwards of 11% swing - Blair in 1997 couldn't achieve that) - so it's vital that Labour becomes more attractive to Scotland for its own survival. Corbyn looks the most attractive, in that regard, however he'll need to make sure not to lose existing voters, and in that:-


New poll makes grim (if predictable) reading for Corbyn fans:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-loses-fifth-of-labour-voters-with-critics-already-plotting-to-oust-him-10508584.html

28% think Corbyn is prime minister material... 72% do not.

If Labour does indeed lose 20% of it's voters that would put the party down at about 24 1/2% of the popular vote. Overall Labour looks less electable to 59% and more electable to 41% of the survey's respondents compared to May this year.

On the plus side the party could see it's popularity revive in Scotland with Corbyn as leader with 36% of SNP voters considering switching back to Labour.

The Prime Ministerial figure isn't particularly concerning - it plays to assumptions what PMs must look like; as we seen with the post-PMQ sample on BBC News, the woman who said she'd vote for him was the most vocal in how he didn't appear Prime Ministerial, and didn't particularly see that as a negative.

Now the 59/41 is more concerning, but ignores low forties has seen many a PM in power. I wouldn't be surprised if Thatcher had similar numbers at one time - and alienating Tories now the endless triangulation has been dropped was always an acceptable loss. It also, like those others, doesn't give us any hard numbers. "More likely" means nothing if those 36% SNP voters go and vote SNP but with warmer thoughts about Labour, similarly if those 20% of Labour voters "less likely" is just registering less enthusiasm, but still vote any way. It's curious none of these polls have included a VI.

There is certainly work to be done - to counter the right-wing media narrative and halting the own-goals, because it's been a bit of a circus this week and I wasn't expecting great numbers because of that.
114  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Corbynwatch on: September 17, 2015, 07:37:18 pm
Seems it's now confirmed that Labour will be campaigning for a Yes to EU vote, which is fair enough, I don't think it was likely it was going to go any other way, but the PLP have helped defenestrate Labour from being able to effectively make demands of the PM for his 'revised EU' package we'll be voting on. It was one of the main things Labour could easily influence in this parliament (Cameron was absolutely banking on this for success), and they've helped undo it - to what end.

Also if the likes of Falconer, Green - people who've accepted roles in the cabinet - to then swiftly undermine him, continue to do so and the rest of the PLP strongarm into diluting his modest platform down (and I don't just mean jettisoning stuff like leaving NATO), then if they aren't careful any eventual failure will be seen not as a rejection of social democratic/anti-austerity/anti-war policies he's espoused, but as a rejection of the PLP-approved fudge and the circus they've helped allow.

But as a priority, I think Corbyn needs to spell out his reforms to internal party democracy. We've a conference coming up, what are we to be voting on? Will it matter? All these questions on policy from the media ought to be responded with reference to party members.
115  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Theresa May vs. Jeremy Corbyn on: September 13, 2015, 04:51:10 pm
Corbyn, ofc.
116  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 13, 2015, 04:45:23 pm
McDonnell is Shadow Chancellor.

Smiley
117  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 06, 2015, 11:23:12 am
^Not to mention a likely acrimonious EU referendum.

Nearly half the 60s, an effective minority government in the 70s

More than the Tories could win in the 70's, and I didn't expect over half in the 60's to be classed as 'traditional opposition' territory.

out of office for over half of the 90s and pretty much all of this decade unless something very odd happens.

The noughties is certainly matching the 1980's nadir. New Labour seems to have left us discredited and demoralised (rightly or wrongly), hence the appetite for an Old Labour return.
118  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Are men able to have opinion of feminism? on: September 06, 2015, 10:41:24 am
Of course, but a great big normally makes a tremendous difference there, and as my example above laid out, only the interminably stupid would treat it as gospel.
119  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 06, 2015, 10:38:00 am
Eh Burnham has always been hard to tackle-I get the impression from some labour members that anyone not supporting a Corbyn agenda is well a right wing Blairite.
Sorry, but it was Yvette's camp going with both barrels at Burnham for attempting to bring onboard Corbyn's support.

The only clear right wing policy he has is on immigration, and that's still relatively moderate compared to people like Danczuk and Hoey.

There's going to be a lot of Blairite MP's who will thank the gods that JC doesn't win, but then realize they've got Burnham as leader
I rest my case, your honour.

Labour has gone back to its traditional position - a party of opposition.

Post-war Labour only failed to govern for most of the 50's and 80's, and even then they were robbed at the 1951 election.
120  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Are men able to have opinion of feminism? on: September 06, 2015, 08:43:01 am
Well, hate to use this example (for obvious reasons), but I remember seeing footage of some women in the 70's here being asked about the prospect of the Tories getting their first female leader, and them saying they didn't believe a woman would be capable of being leader (they expanded: and it wasn't because of the ingrained sexism she might face, but those very same sexist beliefs). Later that year, mostly men voted for her within the Tories - and then the country did.

I don't know whether it's extremism or just political ignorance, but the amount of idiots - mostly liberals - spouting binary assumptions on social media usually to the exclusion of someone else, makes me think they're the perfect trojan horses to completely obliterate any solidarity within the modern left (which unfortunately is largely made of liberals). It's true to say ordinarily women's words should be given more weight in this case, just as men's on male issues, but to completely discount a member of the opposite sex's viewpoint is just moronic beyond belief, and should rightfully reward you with your own medicine.
121  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Boris Johnson on: September 06, 2015, 08:42:19 am
If I lived in the UK, I'd probably be a lean-Labour, occasional Lib Dem voter, but I'd vote for Boris in a heartbeat. FF.
Wat.
122  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 05, 2015, 08:25:13 pm
Even if Burnham wasn't having a shocking campaign, he clearly isn't seen as an acceptable compromise for the right of the party.

That seems rather silly of them.

They've been acting very silly of late - not at all used to having to compromise. Amazed at the amount of Blairites holding up an innocuous tweet from a Sky News reporter, that 50,000 votes were cast by 12K during their debates as proof that Corbyn's popularity is all stage-managed, and not simply how a live opinion-meter works. Of course, the studio audience were obviously part of that rigging.

But more generally, many wanted a lurch rightwards following the defeat for Miliband, as it apparently shown the electoral failure of left-wing politics, and Burnham doesn't represent that for them.
123  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 05, 2015, 05:40:49 pm
Even if Burnham wasn't having a shocking campaign, he clearly isn't seen as an acceptable compromise for the right of the party.
124  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you support the EU? on: September 04, 2015, 02:23:04 pm
No, even with longstanding exit doubts and fear of social-chapterless Britain, I'll be voting out & can't really take seriously any social democrat without a hint of Euroscepticism. The last few years have proven conclusively European unity isn't inherently a virtue.
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 on: September 04, 2015, 02:15:53 pm
Oh well, there's no point in SYRIZA winning anyway to carry out policies they fundamentally disagree with, and those LAE figures suggest the Greek public are unchanged in their refusal to see a future outside of the EU straitjacket, so may as well put the technocrats back in charge.
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