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July 23, 2017, 07:39:42 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: July 22, 2017, 09:23:58 pm
Strong polling for SF but left with a worse result than the prior five years worth of polling at the last GE makes you wonder if it'll ever materialise.

I probably said this 30 pages back, but Irish Labour needs to f**k off and die.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: July 22, 2017, 04:22:45 pm
Why is Die Linke doing so badly?

8% is fairly normal for DL?
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections, 2017 on: July 22, 2017, 12:19:18 pm
The UKIP vote in this set of by-elections fell from 4,033.5 at the last equivalent all-out elections to 15 this time.

We may clutch our consolations about the state of British politics wherever we can find them.

Only because they're indistinguishable from the present Tory party.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2017 on: July 22, 2017, 12:16:39 pm
I think, on balance, you could make that argument, yes. Tongue
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2017 on: July 21, 2017, 03:46:34 am
10 pages devoted to that...
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Jacob Rees-Mogg on: July 20, 2017, 09:47:59 am
Parasitical landlord Tory scum.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: July 18, 2017, 02:24:22 pm
The Blairite rump have went silent, but it remains to be seen how on board they are. Factional amendments scheduled for the conference are in the media today:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-jeremy-corbyn-conference-rule-changes-date-clp-nec-national-executive-committee-labour-first-a7817121.html

I know this is an old post, but I couldn't help laughing at criticism of factional amendments from the right, when the major amendment for 2017 is the McDonnell amendment (which is now redundant)

It was directly related to the question asked whether the Blairites are on board, and that very day LF had announced a policy transparently to help deprive Corbynites of NEC control. It wasn't so much a criticism as answering the question asked. Personally I have to laugh at how up in the arms the Right has gotten over an amendment that stops future PLPs from screening out unpopular factions from a leadership, no matter how 'redundant' you think that now is.
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best healthcare system (updated poll) on: July 15, 2017, 05:54:19 pm
NHS.
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Why do more educated people tend toward centrism? on: July 14, 2017, 07:21:55 am
Because "educated" people are usually rich, and rich people like to keep things the way they are.

Pretty much - comfortable living breeds those comfortable with the status quo.

I realise belatedly every f**ker has said this. Smiley
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best healthcare system on: July 14, 2017, 07:20:19 am
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Japan General Discussion on: July 13, 2017, 10:58:10 am
Am I missing something here? Do these polls just not exclude undecideds? I can't see how else the LDP could lose 20 points off their 2014 result and yet the opposition are nearly all around 5% when in 2014 just the DPJ & JCP totalled above 35%.

That's the whole point.  The grey line is "do not support any party."  LDP's loss is not necessary DP or JCP's gain.  Of course LDP and JCP (along with JRP and KP) all totally under-poll.  KP always get 13%-15% depending on turnout and DP's real level of support is double or triple of what they poll. 

Well of course I understand LDP's losses can't be immediately assumed to be beneficial for DPJ or JCP, it was the fact that no-one was gaining; that they're all hovering around 5%. I'm surprised they're happy to commission all these polls and yet leave the undecideds in with no attempt to further query them - in the end left with a showing of a largely unrepresentative and meaningless snapshot (as you've outlined).
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Japan General Discussion on: July 11, 2017, 08:53:59 pm
Am I missing something here? Do these polls just not exclude undecideds? I can't see how else the LDP could lose 20 points off their 2014 result and yet the opposition are nearly all around 5% when in 2014 just the DPJ & JCP totalled above 35%.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: July 11, 2017, 05:19:23 am
It's debatable whether LD should be included in the left but I felt under Farron they were left of centre. I wouldn't have included them as left under Clegg.

But this ignores that despite the Lib Dems positioning back to the social liberal wing, they still remain toxic to the broader left following the coalition. That isn't to say they haven't won some left-wing votes back in the minority of seats where they're the only show in town, but that their voter composition is/was likely no more left-wing than it was in the 2015 GE despite the change of leadership.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: How do British Jews vote? on: July 09, 2017, 08:04:46 pm
Under Miliband, it was a lot closer. They leaned Tory, but it was far from unanimous.

Under Corbyn, expect them to vote like US African-Americans. We've been here before. We know an existential threat when we see it.

The thing is; they quite clearly didn't.  You look at the places that have reasonably large Jewish populations (mostly in London) and although they are distinct from London in terms of the swing to Labour being quite a bit less than the London average; there was still a swing to Labour.  If there was some monolithic shift away from Labour amongst the Jewish community: the size of the community in those few seats should have caused a swing to the Tories but that did not happen.

e: Probably the big example is Hendon: 17% Jewish; Labour/Tory marginal seat (since it was recreated in 1997, its been a bellwether).  In 2017; there was a 2.7% swing from the Conservatives to Labour in the seat; which can't possibly have happened if the Jewish vote was as monolithically Conservative in 2017. I assume that it probably swung towards the Tories; but less than the poll below suggests (from what I recall; it was taken a couple of weeks before polling day, when the overall polls swung quite strongly towards Labour).  The same thing happened in Finchley and Golders Green as well: 21.1% Jewish: bellwether since 1997: 4% swing from the Tories to Labour.  Both seats were below the London average or even what you see in other seats around (Chipping Barnet had a 6.9% swing to Labour and the Tories only just held it; that seat has never been won by Labour) and the Jewish vote most likely saved both for the Tories - but it isn't as monolithic as you suggest.

FWIW the VI at the time of the poll above (which helpfully was the most accurate pollster) was Con 43%, Lab 37% and Lib 8%.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: How do British Jews vote? on: July 09, 2017, 05:23:06 pm
Survation poll of Jewish VI prior to 2017 GE (changes from similar poll prior to 2015 GE):

Con 77% (+8)
Lab 13% (-9)
Lib 7% (+5)
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: July 09, 2017, 12:32:49 pm
Opinion poll graph since 1943 I made.

Beware if you open it if you have a slug computer like mine. The file is moderately large.

http://orig01.deviantart.net/a05d/f/2017/190/3/1/1943_2017_graph_of_uk_polls_by_thumboy21-dbfnp07.png

Source:
https://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

Awesome!  I'm intrigued by the period in 1981 when the Liberals were actually ahead in the polls.  Wow.

Brought about by the creation of, and alliance with, the SDP. High profile former cabinet ministers from Labour who were 'moderates' and therefore able to win votes from all parties (although inevitably hit Labour vote hardest - interesting to note Labour under Foot were leading in the polls until the arrival of the SDP).
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: July 09, 2017, 10:48:21 am
2010-2014 stands out in just how many polls were commissioned.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: July 07, 2017, 06:35:42 am
YouGov/The Times (changes from their last pre-election poll):

Lab 46% (+11)
Con 38% (-4)
Lib 6% (-4)
UKIP 4% (-1)
Nats 4% (-1)
Oth 1% (-2)

Doesn't suggest the Nats have collapsed further - but the Greens appear to have.

When polls list it only as Nats, does that just mean SNP & Plaid Cymru? It doesn't include Sinn Fein et al., right?

The polls don't list it as Nats, that's just the common shorthand. It's usually SNP/PCY.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: More Conservative Country on: July 06, 2017, 05:06:07 pm
I blame the DLP.
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Jon Ossoff on: July 06, 2017, 04:31:49 pm
Further evidence that liberals are the worst of both worlds (sh**te policies, sh**te results).
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Election that never was: Tory Leadership Round 1 on: July 06, 2017, 04:28:26 pm
Warsi / lesser-evilism.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: July 06, 2017, 04:19:34 pm
YouGov/The Times (changes from their last pre-election poll):

Lab 46% (+11)
Con 38% (-4)
Lib 6% (-4)
UKIP 4% (-1)
Nats 4% (-1)
Oth 1% (-2)

Doesn't suggest the Nats have collapsed further - but the Greens appear to have.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: When and Where the anticapitalist left wins a election?, national level on: July 06, 2017, 08:51:10 am
Syriza already did this in Greece.

Syriza were not standing on leaving the EU, and therefore could not be categorised as a victory for anti-capitalism.

No true socialist, amiright?

What? Syriza are socialists, absolutely, but conditions weren't right for an anticapitalist platform and they never stood on one.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître on: July 06, 2017, 08:24:18 am
Nouvelle Gauche (PS)
For: 3
Against: 5
Abstain: 23

F**king useless. Hamon was right to leave.

Can you flesh out Hamon's motivations, and what state the PS is in, ideologically? I must say that vote is at odds with how I expected the current PS to act (mainly informed by electing Hamon as their leader).

Hamon is from the PS' left, unlike most of the MPs that were reelected last month. He opposed all of Hollande's right-wing legislation and resigned the government when it became clear he was going to go full supply-side. His campaign was centered around UBI, shortening the workweek, tackling workplace stress, taxing the rich, and radical measures against climate change. It's clear now that the PS will never provide an effective platform for these ideas.

Thanks, I wasn't too far off, just didn't realise the political collapse had hurt the parliamentary PS left more than the right. What do you think of the prospects for his new party? I wonder (no doubt wishful thinking) if it might counter-intuitively allow for/force more cooperation on the Left since they're so disunited that they'll never get in the second round unless voters rally around one.
25  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Favorite big European country on: July 06, 2017, 08:09:06 am
I also like Theresa May.

pls change your avatar

I seen the avatar and the "I like their politics" and that made sense. Then I continued reading...
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