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September 20, 2017, 10:15:38 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: Today at 08:34:38 am
Has it really dissipated that quickly?! F**k, Schulz lasted longer than that!
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 19, 2017, 05:01:06 am
Have Die Linke ran a generally good campaign?

Can a party running as a joke run a good or bad campaign?

How are they running as a joke?
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Norwegian election, 2017 on: September 18, 2017, 09:18:12 am
Would normally be a SV voter but it'd have to be Red in this election, if only to help them over the line (and stop the left sinking substantial votes for nothing).
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 16, 2017, 04:51:26 pm
Since red-green is very far away from a majority, I assume you meant red-red-green. Well, Schulz only said that he doesn't rule out this coalition under certain conditions. I wouldn't really call that support.

Of course, the Greens are former coalition partners, the (federal) Left are former untouchables. I was using Red-Green in the same way it was used in the Norwegian election - not accounting for the different shades of red and green within it. I think the fact that he refused to rule it out was still worth welcoming - the German left appears to be forever f**ked otherwise.

True, the recent grand coalitions are additional baggage for the SPD. But do you remember when the SPD's poll figures suddenly surged after Schulz entered the stage of German politics? So there were apparently many people who did see a "vehicle for change" in the SPD at that time.

Well that's the problem, the bubble burst and I suspect it was in large part because Schulz couldn't maintain the perception he was that change.
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Windows vs Linux (and Mac I guess) on: September 16, 2017, 03:13:59 pm
Only Commies use Mac OS.

Were you trying to sound clueless?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 14, 2017, 05:40:21 pm
Absolutely - but the regrettable liberal influence over a PS at its worst is altogether different from a vehicle that offers nothing but those liberals.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 14, 2017, 04:19:24 pm
Oh, I knew the dessert and the politician it referred to - I suppose I just see Macron's Frankenstein monster appreciably different to PS at its worst. Left-wing wags you say...
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: German federal election, 2017 on: September 14, 2017, 04:03:16 pm
The Left.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 14, 2017, 03:57:14 pm
Well to be fair, no-one would have predicted that Flanby would win a second term; and that's basically what happened...

...? What are you referring to here?
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: September 14, 2017, 03:18:42 pm
Oh boy, oh boy - Polish media at last are writing something about Corbyn!


Well, unfortunately religious newspapers are outraged that Corbyn received the Eucharist during some funeral mass. Kinda sad that such thing happened although I wonder if it was the topic outside tabloid media zone?

Not that I've seen - although I don't bother reading many. It's the first I've heard of it, and I must admit laughing at the idea this is the issue Poland has focused on.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 14, 2017, 03:14:38 pm
Isn't it a bit self-evident that a party that has been in coalitions with the government for the majority of this past decade, and is going into the election as one, isn't going to convincingly argue they're the vehicle for change? That consensus seemed to be best shown within the debates, where there was mockery on how often the two leaders agreed.

I welcome Schulz's support for a Red-Green government, and his focus within the campaign, but I think until the SPD are out of government they will not be able to land the punches and channel the public disquiet and are left languishing.

It is a shame it's going to AFD, but not in the least bit surprising.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: September 12, 2017, 11:48:15 am
There's also the matter that those voting Labour who are deeply impassioned by Brexit enough that they're hostile to Labour's positioning need to be assured enough are with them that a vote for the Liberals represents something, and won't just be pissing away a vote and ensuring the Tories harder option is the order of the day.

Don't forget the Liberals have been more or less flat-lining for nearly 7 years now, and now fall below 15% in just shy of 90% of GB seats (and are below 10% in 80% of GB seats) - that's a pretty big disincentive.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favourite Labour PM's of UK on: September 04, 2017, 07:50:33 am
1. Clem
2. Wilson
3. Brown
4. Callaghan
5. Blair
6. Ramsay Mac

This ordering with a gulf between #2 and the rest.
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rank the following left-wing politicians from most favorable to least favorable on: September 01, 2017, 04:05:23 pm
I can't really claim to have enough intimate knowledge about these candidates (excluding Corbyn) that I'm entirely certain about these rankings, but with that all said:-

Corbyn
Melenchon
Iglesias
Wagenknecht
Sanders
AMLO

15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: August 30, 2017, 04:05:04 pm
For the two surveys:

80% Left
77% Green
58% SPD
41% AfD
39% CDU/CSU
36% FDP

&

70% Left
60% Pirate
55% Green
47% SPD
41% CDU/FDP
37% AfD
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: August 05, 2017, 07:27:31 am
It's not just their left flank (which was never that large, especially before 2005) it is that they have alienated successfully large elements of their core vote, who now have decided they might as well vote for one of the major parties - this benefits the Tories in practice. And the sort of campaign they ran for June was absolutely not the best way to win that vote back.

Their left flank certainly was substantial, and started under the leadership of Kennedy. I remember during the 2001 election coverage that fact being noted, with the BBC commissioning a poll to demonstrate that: asking each party's supporters their opinion on nationalisations, opposing privatisations and higher public spending, and on each they found substantially more take-up from the Lib Dem voters - and that was before the Iraq War, and the solidifying of the student vote.

I'd dispute it helping the Tories. The Tories benefited from their collapse but in nowhere near the numbers Labour did. In the South West and other bastions where the Liberals are the only hope of unseating them, and any Liberal vote lost is to their favour, certainly. But elsewhere it's very much in the Left's favour to have a unified vote and a remaining fringe pro-EU party mostly retaining committed right-liberals who'd otherwise likely vote Tory.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections, 2017 on: August 04, 2017, 01:27:41 pm

King's Lynn and West Norfolk, St Margarets with St Nicholas

Con 36.2 (-5.7)
Lab 30.0 (-6.2)
Lib Dem 24.7 (+24.7)
Green 9.0 (-12.9)



Con gain St Margarets with St Nicholas from Lab


If the tories had, in the past election, 41,9 and lab 36,2 this is not a Con gain, or there is some wrong

Multi member ward - see below (provided by our very own Andrew Teale):

Code:
Lesley Bambridg C 714 42.8%
Claire Kittow Lab 554 33.2%
Andrew Wilson C 531
Kelly Terrey Lab 523
Robert Archer Grn 402 24.1%
Jonathan Burr Grn 250

You'll see Labour won the 2nd seat in 2015, but have subsequently lost it in this by-election.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections, 2017 on: August 04, 2017, 11:28:03 am
Some strong results for Labour in these past weeks.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next UK General Election thread on: August 04, 2017, 11:23:10 am
LibDems seem to be dead.

They've been in this position since 2011, just some seemed in denial about it. They took their left-wing voters for granted and delivered an austerity government a super majority, that few are rushing back to them post coalition is of no surprise to anyone but the party leadership.

And Labour would be just 4 seats shy of a majority:

In reality they'd already have a majority, given SF's abstention.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: July 29, 2017, 06:39:13 pm
I note PC have DL as slightly to the right of British Labour, and in line the UK Green party? I haven't interrogated their policy platform, but that can't be right, surely? Labour were offering standard social democracy at the last election, unless they've ignored that in favour of the leadership/cabinet's actual views, which are much more socialist.

Are DL as Eurosceptic as Mélenchon and Corbyn? I wonder if that drags them to centre in this ranking. 
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: July 22, 2017, 09:23:58 pm
Strong polling for SF but left with a worse result than the prior five years worth of polling at the last GE makes you wonder if it'll ever materialise.

I probably said this 30 pages back, but Irish Labour needs to f**k off and die.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: July 22, 2017, 04:22:45 pm
Why is Die Linke doing so badly?

8% is fairly normal for DL?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections, 2017 on: July 22, 2017, 12:19:18 pm
The UKIP vote in this set of by-elections fell from 4,033.5 at the last equivalent all-out elections to 15 this time.

We may clutch our consolations about the state of British politics wherever we can find them.

Only because they're indistinguishable from the present Tory party.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2017 on: July 22, 2017, 12:16:39 pm
I think, on balance, you could make that argument, yes. Tongue
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2017 on: July 21, 2017, 03:46:34 am
10 pages devoted to that...
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