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126  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: You Can't Shoot An Idea on: July 26, 2016, 09:19:22 pm
1948 Congressional Elections  

Senate
Democratic: 52 (+7)
Republican: 44 (-7)

House
Democratic: 244 (+56)
Republican: 190 (-56)
American Labor: 1 (0)


 Senate Leadership

Majority Leader Scott Lucas (D-IL)
Sen. Minority Leader Ken Wherry (R-NE)


 House of Representatives Leadership

Speaker Sam Rayburn (D-TX)
Minority Leader Joseph Martin (R-MA)
Minority Leader Vito Marcantonio (AL-NY)


  No one predicted the outcome of the presidential race, and as such, fewer Americans voted in downballot elections than they did the presidency. Although the tide seemed to be slowly shifting in favor of the GOP, President Truman's fervent demonization of the 80th Congress guaranteed a turnaround in favor of the Democrats. The 81st Congress had become definitively Democratic with notable pickups in the Midwest and West.
  
  As far as note-worthy candidates and campaigns, the race most closely observed by analysts and politicos was the Senate race in Minnesota. Senator Joseph H. Ball (R-MN) had been remarkably popular for the majority of his eight-year tenure. Ball was relatively progressive for a Republican of the time, siding with President Truman when it came to joining the United Nations. The senator had even endorsed Franklin Roosevelt in the 1944 presidential election. As such, he won zero support from Dewey in 1948, leading his resounding defeat and a definitive victory for Minneapolis Mayor Hubert Humphrey.

  Progressives in the House who supported Wallace remained in the Democratic Party and did not run on separate tickets. However, there certainly were liberal Democrats who felt betrayed by Truman's refusal to go all-in on civil rights and wholly endorsed Wallace instead. One of the most outward supporters of Wallace had been Senator Matthew M. Neely (D-WV), who went on to handily win back his Senate seat upon endorsing Wallace's platform. In his campaign, Neely expressed hope that "New Deal Democracy" was the sole force which could take back Congress from the Republicans. Evidently, or at least in his case, it worked.

  The 80th Congress had been the much-maligned "Do-Nothing Congress."

  This 81st Congress would come to be known as the contentious "King-Maker Congress."

  
Senators Elected in 1948 (Class 2)
John Sparkman (D-AL): Democratic Hold w/84%
John L. McClellan (D-AR): Democratic Hold w/ 93%
Edwin Johnson (D-CO): Democratic Hold w/ 60%
J. Allen Frear, Jr. (D-DE): Democratic Gain w/ 50%
Richard Russell, Jr. (D-GA): Democratic Hold, Unopposed
Henry C. Dworshak (R-ID): Republican Hold w/ 54%
Paul Douglas (D-IL): Democratic Gain w/ 52%
Guy M. Gillette (D-IA): Democratic Gain w/ 55%
Andrew F. Schoeppel (R-KS): Republican Hold w/ 56%
John S. Cooper (R-KY): Republican Hold w/ 50%
Allen J. Ellender (D-LA): Democratic Hold, Unopposed
Margaret C. Smith (R-ME): Republican Hold w/ 72%
Leverett Saltonstall (R-MA): Republican Hold w/ 54%
Homer Ferguson (R-MI): Republican Hold w/ 51%
Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): Democratic Gain w/ 60%
James O. Eastland (D-MS): Democratic Hold, Unopposed
James E. Murray (D-MT): Democratic Hold w/ 55%
Kenneth S. Wherry (R-NE): Republican Hold w/ 57%
Styles Bridges (R-NH): Republican Hold w/ 60%
Robert C. Hendrickson (R-NJ): Republican Hold w/ 51%
Clinton P. Anderson (D-NM): Democratic Hold w/ 56%
J. Melville Broughton (D-NC): Democratic Hold w/ 68%
Robert S. Kerr (D-OK): Democratic Gain w/ 57%
Guy Cordon (R-OR): Republican Hold w/ 63%
Theodore F. Green (D-RI): Democratic Hold, 58%
Burnet R. Maybank (D-SC): Democratic Hold, Unopposed
Karl E. Mundt (R-SD): Republican Hold w/ 60%
Estes Kefauver (D-TN): Democratic Hold w/ 64%
Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX): Democratic Hold w/ 64%
A. Willis Robertson (D-VA): Democratic Hold w/ 65%
Matthew M. Neely (D-WV): Democratic Gain w/ 58%
Lester C. Hunt (D-WY): Democratic Gain w/ 54%
127  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: You Can't Shoot An Idea on: July 26, 2016, 06:56:37 pm
I'm assuming turnout is about the same it was OTL?

Pretty much so.

Dewey holds, assuming that congressional elections go more or less the same, only 19 state delegations. The question now at hand is whether or not a significant number of Progressive minded House Democrats vote for Wallace. It'll be interesting to see how this develops!

We'll find out soon!
128  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 05:43:26 pm
Vermont... passes? Huh

*grabs the popcorn*
129  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 05:40:34 pm
Knowing how divided the party looks to be, I half-expect a walkout
130  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Grade Night One of the DNC on: July 25, 2016, 10:43:46 pm
B+
Sanders and Warren did fine for the most part. Rest were snoozers.
Chanting and such was rather enjoyable.
131  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 10:34:12 pm
A California Sanders delegate is still unmoved by Sanders' speech. She says she will vote for Green Party Jill Stein.

FF
132  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 09:54:14 pm
Never-ending excitement for Sanders!
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 09:50:06 pm
This gon' be good
134  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 09:34:48 pm
These Bernie protesters ARE the millennial generation, folks.  This is the result of years of participation trophies and coddled feelings.  You can't tell these people no!

lol enjoy dying first
135  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 09:31:37 pm
Yesss. Finally some policy and substance and not vague anecdotes.
136  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 09:29:33 pm
"We trusted you."
Poor delusional Berners. Warren was never on-board with Sanders.
137  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 09:26:48 pm
Oh hey! It's the person who could've brought some semblance of unity on the ticket!
138  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 09:13:34 pm
Yeah, speakers, just keep throwing salt at the Berners, that'll definitely bring unity.
139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 08:26:01 pm
Silverman just won over the entire audience in near-total unity.
Then broke it with name-calling.
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 06:17:21 pm
morty worlsh up now
141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 05:18:06 pm
I wish Ann Richards was still alive.

And Ted Kennedy
142  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 03:56:42 pm
This thread is more of a ride than the convention!
143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 03:37:17 pm
These stupid f-ckers are going to hand the election to Trump. I am furious. Hillary is so decent. She came way closer in 2008 and we saw none of this garbage. When will they get it through their thick skulls that they f-cking LOST.
Maybe after she loses you will admit that she was a horrible candidate

Good luck with that one.
144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 01:12:46 pm
Yikes, Sanders delegates boo when Sanders himself says "We have got to defeat Donald Trump and we have got to elect Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine."

He needs to get real with them. Take off the kiddie gloves and tell them not to be children. He needs to get personal and emotional and explain why it is so important to him why Donald Trump can't be elected.

This is a clusterf-ck. I totally overestimated the sanity of his supporters, which I didn't think was possible. If Hillary loses the general, it's at least partly on Bernie. He helped create this mess.

If Hillary Clinton loses it will be Hillary Clinton's fault. She could have offered an olive branch long ago.

You're kidding. Their positions are like, 95% similar. These people are fools.

And the sad thing is, the ones who became delegates were obviously the most passionate among them. Not good.

And of course CNN has Reince Priebus on to comment. Where were the major Democratic surrogates when sh-t hit the fan at the RNC?

For Sanders' supporters, Clinton's positions on issues do not really matter as they appear to shift with the wind. That seems to come down to the trust issue more than anything, and that ship has sailed. Not sure how possible unity is at this point with the die-hards who are unwilling to compromise. And, of course, the media will eat that up.
145  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 12:37:53 pm
Yikes, Sanders delegates boo when Sanders himself says "We have got to defeat Donald Trump and we have got to elect Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine."

He needs to get real with them. Take off the kiddie gloves and tell them not to be children. He needs to get personal and emotional and explain why it is so important to him why Donald Trump can't be elected.

This is a clusterf-ck. I totally overestimated the sanity of his supporters, which I didn't think was possible. If Hillary loses the general, it's at least partly on Bernie. He helped create this mess.

If Hillary Clinton loses it will be Hillary Clinton's fault. She could have offered an olive branch long ago.
146  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 12:34:52 pm
I just hope Michelle Obama references her plagiarized speech.
147  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you want Gary Johnson to make the debate stage? on: July 24, 2016, 09:33:31 pm
Johnson and Stein should be in, at least, one debate. If their numbers go up, keep them in.
148  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Thousands of Sanders Supporters take to the Streets in Philadelphia on: July 24, 2016, 04:38:17 pm
Hillary supporters: Sit down and get in line.
Sanders crowd: Nah.
149  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: You Can't Shoot An Idea on: July 24, 2016, 03:48:13 pm
The Election of 1948: Final Results



150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: You Can't Shoot An Idea on: July 24, 2016, 03:46:42 pm

Truman and Dewey Casting Their Votes on Election Day

  New York fell in the Dewey column, edging out Truman and Wallace by only a few percentage points. Dewey confidently walked away on top in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland. Just like that, the governor of New York was just about halfway to the necessary number to win: 266. Truman would come back with a vengeance, however, due in part to his ultimate refusal to push for a civil rights plank at the convention. The president swept the Solid South, putting his total thus far at 175.
 
  As it turned out, the Truman camp would come to realize that winning the South cost them the Midwest. The black vote in 1948 was far higher than any previous year, and in a 9-to-1 margin, these men and women were voting Dewey. The Republican platform had been far more specific on civil rights, and although Dewey himself scarcely brought the issue up, his work in New York ensuring equal rights was recognized. Thomas Dewey won the majority vote in Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois with fair margins.
 
  In the further west, mountainous region of the country, Truman confidently picked up Montana, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona and won narrow victories in Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming. Dewey won the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas for the Republicans. In the tightest of margins, Wallace eked out a win in Washington.

  The final states were ticking in and the results only tightened. For every state won by Truman the next was won by Dewey. Oregon was called for Dewey, then Minnesota for Truman. The president was declared the winner of 10 Electoral Votes in Iowa, then Dewey narrowly picked up 12 in Wisconsin. As the total stood, Harry Truman had 228 to Dewey’s 229. It all came down to California and Ohio. Reporters were quick to mention that unless one candidate won both states, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives as it had in 1824.

  Not until 2am was California called for President Truman. Although Dewey had spent a great deal of time winning over voters in cities like Sacramento, Truman’s message had resonated with enough suburban voters to overcome any advantage from the governor. Ohio remained unclear throughout the night due chiefly to voting errors in major cities. Truman had taken an early lead in Ohio, but, just as reporter H.V. Kaltenborn of NBC correctly predicted, the late returns proved to be in favor of Thomas Dewey. Once more, the black vote was what handed industrial centers in Cleveland and Springfield to the challenger. Ohio was called for Governor Dewey at 8am on November 3rd.
 
  According to the Constitution, the fate of the election now indeed lied with Congress.


“We cannot at this time make a definite call on, uh, who exactly the next president shall be. As has only happened once before in American presidential politics, the House of Representatives will vote to decide the winner of this election.”
NBC Broadcast, November 3rd, 1948
edit: syntax fix
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