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126  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 07, 2015, 10:28:36 pm
Excellent update! When are you taking this to?

Not sure yet.. I guess up to the 50s? Or whenever I get bored.

Looking good! Great to see a fellow comrade doing alternate history, as well. Wink

Yessir! Hope you'll enjoy this TL.
127  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 07, 2015, 06:23:57 pm

Theodore Roosevelt: 26th and 28th President of the United States

  Theodore Roosevelt was inaugurated as the 28th President of the United States on March 4th, 1913. Newspapers emphasized that he looked as “spry as he did in 1904” when slamming on the podium to demonstrate how powerfully he felt about the issues. Each major point was greeted with astounding applause. As it seemed, the nation was thrilled to return to the Roosevelt administration.

  The new president proclaimed that the American people were overdue for a new Square Deal. He stated that front-and-center of this new plan would be a new social insurance system accompanied by a National Health Service to provide medical care to those in desperate need. He also mentioned a workers’ compensation law, the registration of lobbyists, and a law restricting the use of injunctions in strikes. He also outlined a plan to bring about regulatory laws for trust-busting maneuvers.

  A key point of his inaugural was the recognition that in the election he won a plurality of the popular vote, but not the majority. In fact, the Democratic candidates had over 43% of the popular vote while he had 30%. He concluded from this point that ordinary Americans were "sick and tired of Washington as it has been" and that his re-election meant a "fundamental toppling of the old puppetmasters." Roosevelt also stated that because the nation was so split, he would be willing to work alongside Democrats to generate legislation.

The Roosevelt Cabinet

President                        Theodore Roosevelt
Vice President                  William Howard Taft
Secretary of State            Robert M La Follette
Secretary of Treasury       Jonathan Bourne Jr.
Secretary of War              Luke E. Wright
Attorney General              Charles Bonaparte
Postmaster General           George von L. Meyer
Secretary of the Navy       Truman H. Newberry
Secretary of the Interior    James R. Garfield
Secretary of Agriculture      James Wilson
Secretary of Com & Lab      James C. Redfield

  Roosevelt was determined not only to bring about the “new chapter" of his progressive reforms, but to bring closure to the conundrum caused by his third party victory. As he stated shortly after the inauguration, “My victory in the race does not mean a new era for American politics. Our Progressive Party will be more than willing to work with Republicans and Democrats to bring about the reforms our nation needs.” Although he worked to downplay the upheaval caused by the party split, there was no turning back, and the Progressive Party was here to stay. This thought was proven to hold more weight when RNC Chairman Charles D. Hilles declared, “To be frank, there is no possibility for the nomination of Roosevelt in 1916.”

  The first action from Roosevelt had actually been decided for him. The new, 17th Amendment to the Constitution providing for the direct election of Senators was ratified and made law. The president called this a “step to a truer democracy”. Roosevelt, in a debated agreement, signed the Underwood Tariff Act, lowering tariffs and in return, Congress passed a momentous anti-trust bill in the mid-summer. Finally, as the year went on, the question of women’s suffrage was discussed. President Roosevelt was outwardly in favor of legalizing universal suffrage, as was his party, but the Democrats were hesitant and little was done by the end of 1913.

  President Roosevelt also had inherited a mess of a foreign policy from Knox. The former president had completely soiled the country’s relationship with Britain and France, yet had drove the nation closer to Germany. Roosevelt had personally supported the Alliance (Britain, France and Russia), but recognized the reality for what it was. Issuing a total reversal of Knox's policy would, as the president's economic advisors stated, more than likely drive the nation into a financial panic. Instead, Roosevelt continued along the path set for him, and had Secretary La Follette discuss a ten-year trade agreement with the Imperial leadership of Germany. Congress, and indeed most of the nation, did not have much of an opinion on the issue of who to side with in Europe, and mainly wanted the United States to remain isolated.
128  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Winner of the MSNBC Democratic Forum on: November 07, 2015, 01:27:42 pm
I thought Sanders did the best. He needs to advance from his talking points and bring things down to a personal level, but he managed to bring in some humor and directly addressed the questions.

Clinton did fine, as usual, but it's very clear that she's not making any real promises and not taking any positions on anything: even about something as obvious as not having police arrest little girls.

O'Malley is trying a little too hard to get heard, but did okay, I guess.
129  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: South Carolina Democratic forum **live commentary thread** on: November 06, 2015, 08:56:45 pm
Bernie doing very well in showing some personality. The debate desperately needed that.
130  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: South Carolina Democratic forum **live commentary thread** on: November 06, 2015, 08:42:57 pm
Not sure how many people are watching this thing, but Bernie has to do very well to get a bump.
131  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 06, 2015, 06:20:49 pm
1912 Congressional Elections      

Democratic: 51 (+6)
Republican: 43 (-4)
Progressive: 3 (+3)
Socialist: 0 (0)

Democratic: 295 (+60)
Republican: 125 (-33)
Progressive: 12 (+12)
Socialist: 3 (+1)

  The Senate and House elections saw another shakeup, not unlike that of 1910. In the House, the Republicans lost 33 seats and the Democrats gained 60. Twelve former Republican representatives decided to run on separate tickets in 1912, and won as members of the new Progressive Party.

  In Idaho, the incumbent Senator William E. Borah (R-ID) won re-election as a Progressive Party member. Joseph CS Blackburn (D-KY) managed to win back his seat in Kentucky for the third time. A multi-party vote in New Hampshire resulted in the victory of Robert P. Bass (P-NH) when he defeated four Republicans and four Democrats all running separate tickets. A tight election in New Jersey between Frank O. Briggs (R-NJ) and Representative William Hughes (D-NJ) ended in the surprise win for former governor Franklin Murphy (P-NJ). A similar event occurred in Oregon, when Benjamin Ramp (S-OR), who won 11% of the vote, split the left-vote with Jonathan Bourne Jr. (P-OR), leading to Harry Lane (D-OR) coming out on top.

  In New York, the incumbent Governor William Sulzer (D-NY), who had been attempting to construct state-level reforms had been undergoing a fierce impeachment charge from Tammany Hall on account of suspicious campaign funding. As evidence later piled up against the governor, it was suspected that the Democrats would deny the nomination to Sulzer. He fought for months, and even attempted to receive an endorsement from the Liberal Party when it was created, but on September 9th, the NY State Assembly voted to impeach the governor. His Lieutenant Governor, Martin H. Glynn, immediately succeeded to the role.

  Governor Glynn was also a progressive Democrat, and would quickly endorse Champ Clark for president, as Sulzer did. Charles Francis Murphy, the leader of Tammany Hall who effectively removed Sulzer from power, tolerated Glynn and supported his expected candidacy in 1912. The Republicans rallied around Job E. Hedges while the Progressives chose Roosevelt’s Secretary Oscar Straus. The Democrats had easily chosen Glynn, making it seem as though there would be a runaway. However, the new Liberal Party backed Sulzer as the “only politician willing to fight corruption” and nominated him on their first state ballot. In the end, Straus, upon receiving an endorsement from Roosevelt, won the election due to the split Democratic vote.

  Upon the retirement of Ohio Governor Judson Harmon, the next Democratic nominee, who also had won the support of Champ Clark and the Liberals, Representative James M. Cox, was elected the next governor. In Massachusetts, when the incumbent governor announced his retirement, the Lieutenant Governor, PJ Kennedy, easily won the endorsement of the Republican. Kennedy, however, lost the election to David I. Walsh (D-MA) when he failed to win over the Progressives to his side.

  Other than acting as a vehicle for Champ Clark’s presidential campaign, the Liberal Party seemed to have little standing purpose. When the election had ended and it was clear that Roosevelt would win, Clark refused to give a statement regarding the future of his Liberal Party. However, Oscar Underwood stated that the Democrats ought to re-form their coalition and bring down Republicanism as they had in Congress.

  William J. Bryan stressed that the Democratic ruling class would never again allow someone as progressive as himself be the official nominee. “The Republicans are for the financial elite. The Progressives are a Roosevelt-ist cult. The Democrats have proven to be as torrential as either of these farces. This Liberal Party may be our answer.”
132  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson SNAPS while on live TV on: November 06, 2015, 05:09:47 pm
RIP Carson Campaign
133  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 06, 2015, 05:00:08 pm

Roosevelt's Acceptance Speech, November 6th, 1912

Chapter Three: The New Presidency of Theodore Roosevelt: War Reform

  Theodore Roosevelt, the man who had served as a leading figure in the Spanish-American War, then as Governor of New York, to suddenly have been thrust into the White House upon the death of William McKinley, then in an unprecedented move to choose to run for a term of his own in 1904 and win handily, then form a brand new political party when his friends denied him the nomination, had won a third term in this election. It was quite a move to break Washington’s precedent. Some called Roosevelt a tyrant just for attempting a third run while others were unsurprised by his moxie. When he won in this chaotic, realigning election, analysts were unsure what would happen next.

  When the results were finalized, an energetic and proud Theodore Roosevelt, now 54 years old, made an acceptance speech to an enormous group of supporters. Though still recovering from his bullet wound, the president-elect walked and talked as if it was 1904 all over again. He did not make any promises, but recounted his stance on “New Nationalism” and stated that his Progressive Party would be leading the charge for positive change for the American people, yet would be willing to work with Republicans and Democrats to win this change.

  President Knox immediately fell into a sort of depression. Rejected by even his own voting blocs, he understood that his conservative agenda was not quite right for the time. Still, now that Roosevelt was no longer a Republican per-se, Knox was the leader of the conservative Republican Party. In one of his final public addresses, Knox was asked if he would try to defeat Roosevelt in 1916 to which he answered, “I am beaten. I will not run again for office.”

  One of Knox's last moves as president was to finalize an economic deal he had been working out with the Imperial German government. Britain had unleashed an effective embargo with the United States when Parliament passed a new tariff relating explicitly to U.S. goods, meaning the president needed to find an alternate route for trade. The new pact with Germany allowed for the entrance of American goods for a quarter of the rate of what Britain had once offered. This likely saved the U.S. from a severe economic recession, though Knox was not able to utilize this achievement to his advantage in the election.

  Eugene Debs of the Socialist Party came in second in Nevada and third in a number of other states. His highest vote percentage was 20%. The Socialist Party also managed to pick up an additional seat in the House, another unprecedented feat. Statewide, the SP won over twenty local elections. Debs, in the presidential election, won nearly 8% of the total vote: the highest ever for a radical party.
134  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ben Carson admits fabricating West Point scholarship on: November 06, 2015, 01:17:04 pm
135  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 05, 2015, 07:21:12 pm

The Election of 1912: Final Results

136  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 05, 2015, 07:10:35 pm
  As the night went on, the worry began that none of the candidates would reach the threshold of 266 votes. However, the Western half of the country was where Roosevelt had his strongest showing. Back in July, analysts predicted that the Democratic nominee would take the entirety of the West, but Clark and Underwood both had strong bases in states like Nevada and Washington. On the other side, Knox had pursued policies that totally alienated the Mountain regions.

  California and Washington went to Roosevelt with over 50% of the total vote, the only two non-Southern states that decided on a candidate so clearly. He won Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Colorado and Oregon with about 28 to 30% of the vote. Idaho was not decided until the following morning, when the nation learned that it had surprisingly chosen Roosevelt with 26% of the vote, with Knox as the runner up with 24.5%, Clark with 14% and Underwood with 20%.

  The Dakotas were both won by Roosevelt without much effort. He had pushed for new agrarian reforms in his Western campaign, and the evidence was becoming quite visible. Nebraska was won by two percentage points to Clark's second place, but he still managed to come out victorious. Oklahoma and New Mexico had gone to Knox, but these were the last states won by the incumbent president, giving him a grand total of 26 votes.

  The next shocker was Wyoming, initially considered an easy win for Knox. When all of the votes were counted, Knox had won 11,760 and Roosevelt 12,032 in one of the biggest upsets of the election, even though it had a measly three electoral votes. In total, throughout the West, there were more Democratic votes than Republican and Progressive combined, but the split had ruined the election for Underwood. Roosevelt now had 244 votes and Underwood was locked with 168.

  Newspapers printed on November 6th that the election had ended without a winner. Some went as far to declare that Underwood was the next president, as even though Roosevelt clearly carried the most electoral votes, he hadn’t reached the fateful 266 threshold to be confirmed. In such a case, the House of Representatives would decide the next president. As the House now had an overwhelmingly Democratic majority, they would choose Underwood, their party’s nominee. Then, the Senate, with its Republican leadership, would choose their Vice Presidential nominee Elihu Root. If this had occurred, the United States would have had a historically conservative, albeit bipartisan, government for four years.

  However, on the morning of November 6th at 6:21am, Ohio was finally called for Roosevelt. He had collected 267,000 votes, or 25%. The next runner up, Clark, had 265,000, then Knox with 259,000. Ohio’s 24 electoral votes were pledged to Roosevelt. He now had 268: two over the required point necessary to be confirmed. Teddy had won.

President-elect Theodore Roosevelt, November 6th, 1912
137  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 05, 2015, 06:55:18 pm

Oscar Underwood at a Campaign Stop in Chicago in 1912

  At this point in the election process, Underwood had a commanding lead with 168 electoral votes. However, as it was speculated, this was the end of the line for the House Majority Leader. The Midwest was entirely split. Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois went to Roosevelt with a lead of greater than 10%. Missouri went to Underwood with about a 1% margin, again, due to the Democratic split. Indiana, like New York, was split between each of the candidates, resulting in another Roosevelt victory. Wisconsin, another close state, in another narrow vote, went to Clark, who won 33% of the vote to Knox’s 32% and Roosevelt’s 16%.

  In the West, Roosevelt was not listed as a ballot option in Oklahoma, meaning Clark and Debs won much more of the vote than they otherwise would have. Debs and the Socialist Party won their highest in the country: 18.5%. Knox had 36% and won the state when Clark spoiled the Democratic vote, winning 16% for himself, leaving Underwood 30%. Ohio was too close to call by the end of the night, and it would not be until the following morning when it was finally called.

  The total vote count thus far was a tie between Roosevelt and Underwood, with each at exactly 168 electoral votes. Clark had 69 and Knox 19.

138  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 05, 2015, 06:46:52 pm

Anti-Republican Advert which ran on November 5th, 1912

  At last, the day of the election arrived, and for the first time in decades, no one was quite sure who the winner would be. New England took longer than usual to count up its votes, as did other areas of the country where late additions of the newer parties made the electoral process more time consuming. The handiwork of the Democratic Machine ensured that Champ Clark was at a disadvantage nationwide. In 15 states, Clark was not listed officially on the ballot. Underwood wanted a clean sweep, and if Clark was hindered, he would stand a chance.

  Maine had easily gone to Roosevelt, as did Vermont to Knox. Connecticut was a tight vote, and not until the late evening was it called for Clark. Massachusetts, first expected for Clark, eventually went to Roosevelt who had 30% of the vote to Clark’s 28% and Knox’s 27%. New Hampshire went to Clark. Rhode Island went to Knox in a fairly tight election.

  Underwood had swept the South. Although there were a sizable amount of liberal voters in states like Arkansas and Kentucky, due to the fact that Clark was not listed on state ballots, Underwood won with 50 to 70 percent of the vote in county districts. Delaware, which did not include Clark on the ballot, nonetheless had a huge write-in campaign for the Speaker where he lost by only 4% of the vote to Underwood.

  West Virginia was the only Southern state lost by the House Majority Leader, where by a 5% margin, Roosevelt came out on top. New Jersey had also gone to Roosevelt with 41%, compared to Clark's 36% and Underwood's 20%. Wilson had campaigned heavily in New Jersey for Clark, resulting in a second place finish for the Liberals. Pennsylvania, with 42% of the vote, went to Roosevelt.

  New York, the clearest swing state in this chaotic election, was the final state on the East Coast to find a reading. When the results did come in, it was decided that with 30% of the total vote, Clark was the winner. 29.5% of the state’s vote went to Roosevelt, 21% to Knox, and 11% of the vote went to Underwood, and over 5% for Debs.
139  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: According to most recent fox polls, Trump viewed as more honest than hillary on: November 05, 2015, 02:15:25 am
They're both big-time liars, Trump's just more of a terrible human being.
At least Hillary was honest when she mentioned how she proudly represented Wall Street.
140  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 04, 2015, 08:42:36 pm

John Flammang Schrank: Saloon Keeper

  Early fall seemed to go along without much action. The Des Moines Register released their presidential poll for the month of October, and it had shown little difference from what everyone had suspected. The poll had demonstrated what party bosses of every party had feared: that the upcoming election would be remarkably close.

The Des Moines Register: October 1912
Which candidate would you endorse for president?

Theodore Roosevelt: 29%
Champ Clark: 27%
Oscar Underwood: 20%
Philander Knox: 16%
Eugene V. Debs: 8%

  On October 14th, while campaigning in Milwaukee, a saloon keeper named John Flammang Schrank shot Theodore Roosevelt in the chest as he was on the road toward a major stop. The bullet had slowed after piercing Roosevelt’s glasses case and speech papers, and became lodged within his chest cavity, roughly an inch before his heart. The candidate went on to deliver his speech despite the bullet.

  The following X-Ray examiners and physicians decided it was safer to leave the bullet in place, though Roosevelt had to momentarily suspend his campaign. In graciousness, the other candidates did the same. Though the assassination attempt did win Roosevelt a great deal of sympathy, it took him off of the campaign trail: a detrimental action so close to the day of the election.

  October 30th saw the surprise death of Vice President James Sherman, leaving the post empty. Knox gave a short speech at the eulogy, but could not stop himself from stating without empathy that Sherman’s post would thereby be filled by Elihu Root, another “proper gentleman”, should he win. This move was intended to show his strength as a leader, but contemporary newspapers remarked that it came out rather cold.

  In the week leading to the election, a number of prominent politicians were asked who they were voting for. Most appeared disappointed in the party splitting, but they each chose sides. Judson Harmon stated “I cannot bring myself to vote for a man outside of my own party. I may not agree with the nominating process either, but it is the process we have and the one which works best.”

  Liberal Republicans including Governors Hiram Johnson and Franklin Murphy (R-NJ) campaigned alongside Roosevelt and urged their respective states to vote for the former president. Even some moderates began to doubt the ability of Knox to either be re-elected or properly serve the American people in a second term, and silently worked to get TR back in the White House.
141  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 03, 2015, 07:00:57 pm
What is Fairbanks up to?

Fairbanks comes up again a little later. In 1912 he's against Knox's foreign policy but does not want to completely abandon the Republican Party as Roosevelt has, so he mostly stays out of the spotlight.
142  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 03, 2015, 04:08:02 pm

Theodore Roosevelt Speaking on the Convention Floor, PNC

  On August 5th, the Progressive National Convention opened in Chicago. Attended by over two thousand delegates, this convention was certainly an oddity. The nominee was already clear as day, yet the air of anticipation was still prevalent going into the event. The party platform included a broad range of social and political reforms, unmatched by any other party. Although the platform called for social insurance, a minimum wage law, an eight hour workday and universal suffrage, the most significant plank called for an end to “the unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics.”

  The one major controversy dealt with the platform portion on monopolies, where Roosevelt had the language modified from “trust-busting” to “federal supervision” of major corporations. La Follette was furious by this alteration, but decided against creating any major interruption because of it. Another plank which separated the Progressives from the other parties, was the addition of Roosevelt’s “New Nationalism” policy. As the former president stated, “social justice can only be achieved through a strong federal government.” Unlike the Democratic and Republican platforms, Roosevelt was determined to form a strong central government which could care for the common people. Of course, this note also included a significant call for an aggressive foreign policy.

Theodore RooseveltUnanimous

  Theodore Roosevelt was eager to begin his third presidential campaign, and he was confident that he would be the victor. It is likely that he was the only man running who thought this way. He spoke with much energy and enthusiasm in his acceptance speech, and after endorsing the party platform, he called for a fair and quick nomination of a vice president. Roosevelt's former vice president, Charles Fairbanks, had not left the Republican Party as he had, so there was a fairly open field. However, only two men stood up to the plate for the offer, and the decision was reached after just one call.

William Howard Taft1498
Hiram Johnson518

  In a motion meant to moderate the ticket and exemplify how all anti-Knox Republicans were welcome aboard the TR Train, the vice presidential slot was filled with William Howard Taft. Secretary Taft, who for the first two years had been the public face of Knox's administration, when the president began to go full-on conservative, Taft took a back seat. According to his later memoirs, Taft stated that Knox would often ignore his advice and, when it came to the Trade Deal Affair, was repeatedly spoken over by the president. Taft had already silently supported Roosevelt for the ticket in 1912, but when the party split broke out, he chose to make his choice public. His resignation was ordered by the president the following day, and he complied. Now, Taft was in direct competition with the president, and he knew exactly how to take him down.

  As for the Socialist Party, Eugene Debs captured the nomination with little effort. The party stressed its support of men and women of all labor fields, from rural to urban, from English speakers to Germans and Finns, from miners in West Virginia to rail conductors in the West. The conservative presence was indeed felt, and this coalition was led by Victor L. Berger, even after the nomination of Debs. Berger tried his hardest to prevent the SP’s endorsement of the radical Industrial Workers of the World, even though in the end, the party was able to pass a resolution favoring industrial unionism. More so, a leading figure in the IWW, “Big Bill” Haywood, won a seat on the party’s executive committee.

  Berger did, however, force the adoption of a conservative platform which offered minimal reforms similar to that of the Progressives, with the most radical plank being the abolition of the Senate. Debs, not wanting the SP to splinter as the two major parties already have, did not attend the convention. He allowed others in the radical half of the party do the talking for him. The prevention of the Socialist Party from splitting, Debs believed, would give the party an upper hand in this “election of party splits”.

  Debs would vigorously campaign on a tiny budget of $66k, concentrating in the urban sectors of the Eastern states. He would refer to Knox as a “caricature” and Roosevelt as a “fraud” and a “charlatan.” He understood that both the Progressive and Liberal parties were campaigning on similar issues as the Socialists, but stressed that they only offered empty promises, and they were all funded by the same millionaires.
143  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 02, 2015, 10:06:04 pm

Official Portrait of Speaker Champ Clark

  Two weeks following the events in Baltimore, on July 15th, the Democrats who abandoned the DNC reconvened in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to discuss a new plan and whether or not to nominate their own candidate. Clark, bitter at the Democratic bosses for skewing the nomination process, was the first to address the crowd. "Welcome. Tonight we will deliberate the best tactic to remedy the criminal action which took place on June 30th. I encourage colorful and friendly debate."

 It was agreed after hours of deliberation that, for the 1912 election, to nominate a candidate without the meddling of party bosses and smoke-filled rooms. This decision was reached with the assistance of Clark and Bryan who were able to alter the narrative of the DNC through using such language as "robbery" and "theft" to describe the nomination of Underwood. In reality, there were no laws broken at the convention, but the language was effective regardless.

  This assembly was dubbed the Liberal Party. The party platform was similar to the Democrats, but with provisions for more progressive causes, including women's suffrage, a pledge for isolationist policy, and a total restructuring of the banking system. Many of these stipulations would find themselves in future Democratic platforms, but in the 'Whirlwind of 1912', as the Philadelphia Inquirer first referred to it, the present was all that mattered.

  As for the nomination, what was initially expected to be yet another difficult and tight vote turned into a one-ballot deal. Woodrow Wilson yet again stated that he would not accept this nomination. Bryan let his name go in the ring, but at this point did not hold any expectations. Harmon was absent, and Underwood was now competition. Therefore, Clark became the clear favorite once more. The members of this new Liberal Party did believe that if not for boss intervention, that Clark would have received the nomination of the Democratic Party.

Champ Clark519
William J. Bryan234
William Sulzer30
Woodrow Wilson10
Theodore Roosevelt5

  Champ Clark became the first ever presidential nominee of the Liberal Party of America. As for the vice presidential selection, it was certainly clear who the convention wanted. In a unanimous decision, one boosted by a name drop by Clark in his acceptance speech: Woodrow Wilson became the vice presidential nominee. It took lengthy concurrent meetings between the Speaker and the New Jersey Governor to reach an agreement on the matter, but Wilson eventually came to accept the momentum carried by this new party, and begrudgingly agreed to be its vice presidential candidate.

  Clark and Wilson made a widely reported "Gentleman's Agreement" with Underwood to not overtly attack his campaign, for the men truly did hold respect for one another. Although they disliked how he was nominated, they did not have too many personal disagreements. Alternatively, both Clark and Underwood worked to discredit Roosevelt and the Republicans for the next four months.

144  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict: how many of the first four states will Sanders win? on: November 02, 2015, 08:56:32 pm
New Hampshire is possible for Sanders. Iowa too, if he works at it.
South Carolina and Nevada I cannot see happening.
145  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 02, 2015, 07:39:20 pm

Inside of the Fifth Regiment Army, DNC

  Finally, the Democratic National Convention began on June 25th in Baltimore. There were five leading candidates and no one was quite sure who would be chosen as the nominee. State-wide party bosses each had their favorite sons, but they could not agree to a single candidate as the Republican Party bosses had. After the opening addresses, each of the candidates were nominated by their respective supporters. The roll call then began.

Champ Clark340
Judson Harmon201
Oscar Underwood173
Woodrow Wilson170
William J. Bryan140
Simeon E. Baldwin32
Thomas R. Marshall21

  The first call ended without any one candidate receiving anything near enough delegates to confirm the nomination. Clark topped the call with 340 votes, Harmon had second with 201, then Underwood, Wilson, and Bryan in that order. Clark, now confirmed the frontrunner of the convention, proudly greeted his supporters and began working to discourage Marshall’s and Baldwin’s supporters from their respective campaigns. Harmon had seemingly lost a chunk of his Midwestern support to Clark, and exhaustingly ran to figure out why. The campaigns of Wilson and Underwood contained themselves to passive observers. Bryan immediately began to corral his potential supporters, and after the 6th call, he floated into third.

DEMOCRATIC BALLOT1st Call2nd Call3rd Call4th Call5th Call6th Call1088 DELEGATES
Champ Clark340354342364344330
Judson Harmon201202206206209198
William J. Bryan140138142137147174
Oscar Underwood173168169171171172
Woodrow Wilson170165168152160160
Simeon E. Baldwin323232333319
Thomas R. Marshall212121212131

  Although Bryan was now in third place, it hardly affected his standing in the race. As the days went on and the calls continued on and on, the splitting of the Democrats deepened. A sense of fear gripped the convention that a candidate may never get elected, or worse, that it would be Bryan for a fourth time. On the 6th ballot, Thomas Marshall dropped out of the race and endorsed Clark. He was followed by Simeon Baldwin, who also threw his support behind Clark.

  Finally, on the 11th ballot, the Governor of New Jersey dropped out of the race. Wilson stated that relinquishing himself from the race would move the convention along and preserve the Democratic Party for a president to defeat Roosevelt. He did not explicitly endorse a candidate, and as such, they fled to various candidates. Wilson, who had a growing delegation of Southern supporters, did silently hope that Underwood would come out victorious: as this would nearly guarantee Democratic defeat and give him a chance in 1916.

  The 15th ballot had Clark with a leap into 400 votes, his highest yet. Underwood was gaining, and quickly became known as the “runner up” candidate to the nomination. Harmon’s chances were waning. Bryan was quickly disintegrating. It was then that Clark officially received the endorsement of Tammany Hall of New York, sending his campaign into a tailspin. Simultaneously, Harmon stated that he would “never, in a million years, consider voting for someone like Champ Clark.” This pushed a majority of party bosses to come together on June 30th to finally decide on a candidate.

DEMOCRATIC BALLOT1st Call10th Call20th Call30th Call40th Call41st Call1088 DELEGATES
Oscar Underwood173178273412623627
Champ Clark34036740142134410
Judson Harmon2012072282006910
William J. Bryan14016715250482
Woodrow Wilson17016731321
Simeon E. Baldwin3200000
Thomas R. Marshall2100000

  Underwood won the nomination of the party on the 41st call. On the 40th ballot, when Underwood topped 600 votes, half of the delegates left the convention hall. For months, the Senate Majority Leader was dubbed “unelectable” and “more divisive than Bryan”. Harmon wrote that “When Underwood was elected – one of the strictest conservatives of the race – the Democratic Party was in real trouble.” Harmon, though angry, remained at the convention hall and watched as roughly four hundred delegates angrily stormed out.

  Bryan was the first to declare that “everyone detested by this party’s right-wing” ought to abandon this convention hall. It was a lonely voice at first, but eventually joined by Clark when he came to the conclusion that his campaign was being thwarted by a corrupt and inefficient party. As Clark stated to an enormous group of supporters outside of the convention hall, “Underwood and his men have seen fit to speak above the American people. We must do better than this. The future may be unclear to us now, but I promise you, if we endorse another conservative, the American people will surely regret it."

  In the convention hall, Underwood spoke to the fears of the American people and the conservative Democratic base. He spoke chiefly against “two of the most dangerous men this country has ever known: Theodore Roosevelt and Phil Knox.” He urged middle-of-the-road moderate reform and mediated legislation not favoring businesses nor labor. He was applauded by the delegates who supported him, and the echoes of the convention hall made it sound as if the entire delegation was still present.

  For Vice President, the party nominated, on the first ballot, John Nance Garner with 523 delegate votes. This ticket, dubbed by the press as the “Southernmost presidential ticket since the Civil War”, was indeed called unelectable by many, but a split vote in the Democratic field meant that this election was a total tossup.
146  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 02, 2015, 02:46:03 pm

Inside View of the Chicago Coliseum, RNC

  The Republican National Convention finally began on June 18th. The power struggle was at its peak when the convention began in the Chicago Coliseum in Illinois. The crowd was enormous and half of the attendees were outward Roosevelt supporters. After the convention’s opening prayer, speeches were made in support of the two candidates, and although some of the speakers expressed gratitude towards Roosevelt, there were more outward endorsements for President Know. Without much time going by, the first roll call took off.

  When the calls began going off, it was evident that the states which held primaries were siding with the party bosses and not their constituency. Knox was widely supported in the South, and thereby had nearly one-third of delegates in his pocket from the start. Pennsylvania and New York did stand firm with Roosevelt, however, California and many other prominent states went with Knox. During the roll call proceedings, when it became evident that the party bosses were handing the nomination to Knox, Roosevelt and a great deal of his delegation walked out of the convention hall.

Philander C. Knox684
Theodore Roosevelt189
Jacob Burkett15
Joseph B. Foraker5

  It shook the entire convention hall: literally. Roosevelt understood what was happening, that his supporters would inevitably try to have him elected on a separate ticket, thus leading to an inevitable Democratic victory. Still, when he and his supporters would reconvene in the Chicago Auditorium Building in August, Roosevelt stated that if nominated, he would certainly accept such a nomination. Among those who followed Roosevelt were Governor Hiram Johnson (R-CA), Robert La Follette, Senator Albert Beveridge (R-IN), Senator William E. Borah (R-ID), and his personal friend William Howard Taft.

  Meanwhile, the Republican nominating convention continued as scheduled, making sure to blatantly ignore the storming out of the Roosevelt supporters. Knox had a surprising amount of supporters left in the chamber when he rose to speak. “Theodore Roosevelt will split this party. I will bring it back together in 1913.” He received thunderous applause on this notion. James Sherman stated he would not accept a second term as Vice President, and as such, numerous, more moderate, Republicans were slated on the ballot.

Elihu Root506
James G. Cannon49

  In the end, former Secretary Elihu Root was chosen as the vice presidential candidate, chiefly due to his namesake. One of Knox’s election strategies was to appeal to the Old Guard supporters: Americans who had voted for Garfield, Harrison and McKinley. Knox would most certainly be facing an Independently running Roosevelt. Therefore, TR continued his campaign strategy of painting Knox as ridiculously conservative and a relic of the past century. Immediately following the RNC, newspapers speculated on what a Democratic administration might look like.
147  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 02, 2015, 02:01:28 pm

William J. Bryan at a Campaign Stop in 1912

  The Democrats had paid less attention to the primaries, but it would be a lie to state that the candidates cared nothing for the results. As such, even though the primaries would not indicate a leading candidate, it would demonstrate where certain candidates were strongest and how this plan could theoretically be used to defeat the royal Republicans. The Democrats, after all, had not won a presidential contest since 1892.

  North Dakota was first, won easily by Bryan, followed by New York which was taken by Clark. Wisconsin went, narrowly, to Harmon. Illinois was the first big contested state, and the expected victory, Judson Harmon, won with little effort. Clark came in a close second, followed by Wilson. Days later, Pennsylvania had its contest. Unlike Illinois, this was a battleground state, and the result was unclear going into the primary. The winner by two points was rather shocking: Woodrow Wilson.

  The state had long been pro-Roosevelt and progressive, but Clark was expected to win. Clark came in second. This served to boost Wilson’s legitimacy, and propelled him into the frontrunner status. Though it was a touch late to have an effect in this cycle, the primary would soon become hugely influential in determining leading candidates.

  Nebraska, the next contest in April, was won easily by Bryan, with Clark in second. Other states proved to be less exciting and much more predictable. Wilson won New Jersey, his home state. Underwood won Maryland, Clark won Massachusetts and California, Harmon won Ohio, and Bryan won South Dakota. The race was, by all means, tied. Once a two-man race, the contest was now a five-man race.

  May 20th saw John Garner formally drop out of the race. "It has been a tough fight, my friends, but it is now time to step aside and endorse the next President of the United States, Oscar Underwood. I wish Mr. Underwood all the best, and I hope to be standing beside him at the inauguration!" The House Majority Leader responded warmly, stating Garner would be a fine Vice President.

  As the five-man Democratic race heated up, Roosevelt found himself shielding incessant personal attacks from the Knox administration. Knox attacked Roosevelt’s conservationist policies, calling the former president “obsessed with shrubbery”. When Roosevelt stated that Knox was “thoughtless” in his degradation of his policies, Knox retorted by stating that he would work to repeal Roosevelt’s forestry and preservationist legislation if elected for a second term. As the next poll had shown, the nation was soundly rejecting the extremist Knox-ian policy.

The Des Moines Register: June 1912
Which candidate would you endorse for president?

Republican: Theodore Roosevelt: 62%
                Philander C. Knox: 36%
                Jacob Burkett: 1%
                Joseph Foraker: 1%

Democratic: Judson Harmon: 28%
                 Champ Clark: 25%
                 W.J. Bryan: 17%
                 Woodrow Wilson: 17%
                 Oscar Underwood: 13%

  Wilson had flown into a tied third place with Bryan, Roosevelt was up +26 points. The Republican Party was already well severed between the two branches, but the possibility that the Democrats could also break apart began to scare the Democratic establishment. On the prospect of a second People’s Party being formed in 1912, Judge and former Democratic nominee Alton B. Parker said, “Against a man as eccentric as Roosevelt, trust me, we need as much unity as possible.”

  The Democratic race was also getting quite personal by May and June of 1912. Clark attacked Harmon’s electability, Bryan stated Clark was too wealthy to be effective, Underwood said Bryan was a foolish dreamer, Wilson said Underwood would be the worst choice as he was a Southern Democrat.
148  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 02, 2015, 01:27:12 pm

TR on the Campaign Trail in 1912

  The first round of serious, direct primaries were to begin in late March. Roosevelt was confident that the nation would prefer him to Knox, but Knox did not give his predecessor an inch. In the West, Bryan was still the leading contender, though that streak did not pass the Great Plains. Underwood and Garner split the South, Harmon had a firm grasp in the Midwest, and Clark had support everywhere in between. Just when the field appeared settled, however, a Democratic dark-horse by the name of Woodrow Wilson (D-NJ) threw his hat too, into the ring.

  Wilson, the sitting New Jersey Governor, was one of more progressive-leaning Democrats, and was viewed as un-electable throughout the South. Wilson tried to stress that he beat back his own party elite to pass progressive legislation in New Jersey, but the field was so crowded that the message fell on deaf ears. Bryan held scorn for Wilson, especially now that he threatened his demographic, and routinely would attack the governor as a “two-timer”. Wilson, routinely stunted by Bryan and Champ Clark’s attacks, found it difficult to break into the frontrunner status.

  Most of the candidates were touring the critical primary states in which each had his greatest chances. The new Des Moines Register poll was released on April 2nd, a mere week before the first primaries were scheduled to take place.

The Des Moines Register: April 1912
Which candidate would you endorse for president?

Republican: Theodore Roosevelt: 57%
                Philander C. Knox: 40%
                Jacob Burkett: 2%
                Joseph Foraker: 1%

Democratic: Judson Harmon: 29%
                 Champ Clark: 26%
                 W.J. Bryan: 22%
                 Oscar Underwood: 13%
                 Woodrow Wilson: 8%
                 John N. Garner: 2%

  The primaries began on April 4th in North Dakota, where both registered Democrats and registered Republicans voted to decide which path the state delegates should vote for. Though the majority of these primary elections were non-binding, the Republican Party seemed to be paying close attention to the race’s outcome: chiefly to demonstrate Roosevelt’s popularity over Knox.

  Roosevelt swept the Illinois primary with over 60% of the vote. Newspaper reported the following morning that Knox was widely perceived by voters as “overly aggressive” and “too conservative”. Knox ignored these reports and regarding the primaries only stated his disappointment in that each of the ten primary states were “Leftist strongholds”. Demonstrating just how out of touch he was, Knox went on to lose every single one of the primary contests over the next month and a half.

  It was rumored that some of the party bosses were considering putting another candidate, such as Elihu Root or Secretary Taft, in the fray to compete fairly with Roosevelt. It was clear that these party bosses would decide the election, regardless of the primary voters’ decision. Still, in the more moderate states, such as Nebraska and Maryland, Knox only lost by 2% and 4% respectively. Therefore, Knox did still have a core audience, though clearly not within the North.

  Knox was in full-campaign mode by May 1912. He was determined to continue his presidency. As he once said, “I believe have accomplished great works as this fine nation’s leader. I was elected as a conservative four years ago in a tremendous victory, defeating a raging liberal. The nature of these United States is careful conservatism and regardless of these silly state contests, the American people believe this too.”

  Roosevelt countered, “Knox wouldn’t understand what the people thought of him if he went and asked them himself.”
149  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How much is age an issue? on: November 01, 2015, 09:08:42 pm
I could well see Rubio using age as an attack against Clinton or Sanders should he win the nomination. In the end, though, I doubt it will make much difference.

I would hope that Sanders, especially, would counter it as Reagan had.
150  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Paint it Red: Alt History of the American Left on: November 01, 2015, 06:31:46 pm

The Des Moines Register: March 1912
Which candidate would you endorse for president?

Republican: Theodore Roosevelt: 54%
                Philander C. Knox: 44%
              Jacob Burkett: 2%
                Joseph Foraker: 2%

Democratic: Judson Harmon: 35%
                 Champ Clark: 29%
                 W.J. Bryan: 26%
                 John Garner: 10%

  It was during this week when the Des Moines Register began releasing its presidential polls in a new, experimental monthly report. Although highly scrutinized for its untested tactics, the poll served to prove what President Knox had feared: that Roosevelt was enormously more popular than he was. Knox became determined to win this election, and went on the attack. Embarking onto the streets of Philadelphia, he exclaimed that Roosevelt was an “exceptionally dangerous man” who is not worthy of the presidential seat.

  The poll also fueled Harmon’s campaign. Democratic bosses had been silently backing Clark’s campaign, and had supported him for the presidency since 1910. Clark was still viewed as the clear frontrunner, but Harmon gained a great deal of legitimacy when the poll was released. Once merely a ‘favorite son’ of Ohio, men like Senator James A. O’Gorman (D-NY) commented that a Harmon presidency would assure a much-needed “reduction in the power of the federal government” which had grown exponentially since Roosevelt. However, Harmon did not have much of a jubilant personality as Clark did.

  The Democratic field expanded when on March 4th House Majority Leader Oscar Underwood (D-AL) announced that he would be running for the presidency. Underwood was a rare-breed: a moderate Southern Democrat. The Alabama State Press speculated that Underwood had the potential to electorally, capture the necessary votes in the general election to win. His campaign reached mainstream press when Senator John Sharp Williams (D-MS) formally endorsed the Alabaman Representative.

  Eugene V. Debs expectantly announced his candidacy for president at about this time, and he had made it clear that his primary message during the campaign would be ending the stark income inequality in the United States and ushering in a new system which would not have such drastic meltdowns at unprecedented levels as the nation had just experienced in the recent economic panic. Debs, Hillquit, Hanford, and others including author Upton Sinclair worked tirelessly to persuade public opinion regarding their approval of capitalism as a functioning system.

  Debs’ only major opponent in this race was Victor L. Berger who, although he did not formally through his hat into the ring for the Socialist Party’s nomination, did represent the conservative wing of the party. He disliked attacking Debs’ personal beliefs, but did make a point to exclaim his own opinions as more moderate whenever possible.
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