But who won the Zombie vote?

Brains.

F.  T.  W.

But who won the Zombie vote?

Brains.

Romney 270
Obama 268

Two words: Zombie outbreak.

There is always a chance that anything could happen.

Romney 270
Obama 268

Obama signs a bill cutting the military by 75% and rolling the Air Force back into the Army...
George Romney comes back from the grave to campaign for his son...
Romney pledges that only Vermont cheese will be served at the WH if elected...
Obama expands the CDC budget by 400% and relocates 250,000 left-leaning epidemiologists to Atlanta...
Warren Buffet buys every billboard in Omaha and puts up Obama ads...
GM moves all Michigan operations to MO and NC...
Obama found to have participated in sex-abuse cover-up at Penn State

Really, literally anything could happen.

This is another, arguably more doable, way to get to 270 (271 actually, making NE-2 irrelevant) without OH:

No WAY does IA go Obama and WI go Romney.

With the exception of Nevada, that is actually a possible map. I highly doubt Ohio will be more Democratic than Nevada.

There couldn't be two more different swing states than Nevada and Ohio.  If Obama's standing on jobs and the economy takes a boost, but his standing on government size and fiscal policy takes a dip, they could break that way.

If Gary Johnson were to somehow disable himself, and Ron Paul threw his full weight behind Romney, this would greatly improve his chances in the Silver State, but it would have a much lower impact in Ohio.

Hey, nice to see you back.

Thanks, Red!  I've been away so long most of my hair has gone gray in the interim .

Well now that WI has flipped back to lean Obama the above map is the only path left, unless you start grabbing states where Romney isn't even competing like PA or MI.

The only way Romney can win at this point is to improve his numbers across the board (e.g., something really, really bad happens, and Obama handles it really, really stupidly).  Were that to happen, Wisconsin would be back in play.  Though Ohio would flip back to a true tossup in that scenario anyway.

Having just spent the last year in Cincy, it's hard to imagine Obama's that far in front in the Buckeye State, but Hamilton-Butler-Warren Counties aren't really representative of... anything .

The folks over at the FiveThirtyEight blog picked up their crack pipes and dreamt up this little piece:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/sept-25-romneys-narrow-path-without-ohio/

Apparently, there's some weird universe in their quantum-lepton simulator thingy that squeezes this little gem out:



I'm not sure how Romney can lose Ohio and still manage to get VA, NH, FL, CO and NV, but who am I to argue with their simulators?

Discuss.

Ohio is usually rather quick to count; if it's called at 9:30-10ish, it means that Obama has won every other swingy Rustbelt state (except MAYBE Iowa), and is at worst tied and probably slightly ahead in Virginia and/or Florida.

If Ohio is called Obama, it's over.  Period.  Romney has no path to victory without OH and FL, IMHO.  If Ohio gets called early for Romney, I think at that point Romney has a 75% chance of victory, but it's not over.  Virginia and Florida would probably seal the deal if called Romney within an hour after close.

If OH is TCTC early, then I believe the next state to look at will be Virginia.  If called for Obama, I would say his chances go to 95%, but it would take Florida or Colorado to seal the deal.  If VA is TCTC or called Romney, then we're in for a long night.

A "western win" scenario for Obama goes like this, IMHO:
- Ohio TCTC
- Virginia TCTC
- Florida Romney
- NC, MO Romney
- WI Obama

At this point the states to watch become IA, CO, and NV.  A sweep means an Obama win, or one of these with VA called for Obama also wins it.

The earliest Romney win is OH + VA + FL, but if he doesn't have a sweep, he'll need either a WI call in his favor, or all of CO, IA, or NV called in his favor to break out the non-alcoholic champagne.

Here's a map of poll closing times:



Dark Red = 6:00 PM
Red = 7:00
Light Red = 7:00/8:00
Light Blue = 7:30
Blue = 8:00
Dark Blue = 8:30
Light Green = 8:00/9:00
Green = 9:00
Light Yellow = 9:00/10:00
Yellow = 10:00
Dark Yellow = 10:00/11:00
Gray = 11:00 or later

Did I miss anything good?

I suppose I ought to get registered so I can vote in the Ohio presidential primary...

Long time no see Beef

Yo, yo, still keepin' it real in tha hoosier state.

The closest margin any state had in earning a seat was Minnesota.  By my calculation, they were 14,977 people above the threshold needed to keep their 8th seat.  Otherwise they would have lost that seat to North Carolina.

There's nothing in these results that will be challenged, I think.  Pretty clear cut.  It's not like in 2000 when we had a razor-thin margin between UT and NC for the last seat.

[State closest to gaining a another seat]

State closest to gaining a another seat

1. Montana (needed 12,409 more people)
2. North Carolina (21,301 short)
3. Missouri (22,012 short)
4. Oregon (48,971 short)
5. New Jersey (about 56,000)
6. Louisiana (about 58,000)
7. New York (almost 100,000 short)

I believe all other states would need population pickups of more than 100,000.

Oo

I made this list for the 2000 census and it took me a couple of weeks !

I code for a living .

Never used the POI spreadsheet library in Java before.  That took the most time.  But now I know something new .

Here's the total apportionment run:


Seat #51: California 2
Seat #52: Texas 2
Seat #53: California 3
Seat #54: New York 2
Seat #55: Florida 2
Seat #56: California 4
Seat #57: Texas 3
Seat #58: Illinois 2
Seat #59: Pennsylvania 2
Seat #60: California 5
Seat #61: Ohio 2
Seat #62: New York 3
Seat #63: Florida 3
Seat #64: Texas 4
Seat #65: Michigan 2
Seat #66: Georgia 2
Seat #67: California 6
Seat #68: North Carolina 2
Seat #69: New Jersey 2
Seat #70: California 7
Seat #71: Virginia 2
Seat #72: Texas 5
Seat #73: New York 4
Seat #74: Florida 4
Seat #75: Illinois 3
Seat #76: Pennsylvania 3
Seat #77: California 8
Seat #78: Washington 2
Seat #79: Ohio 3
Seat #80: Massachusetts 2
Seat #81: Texas 6
Seat #82: Indiana 2
Seat #83: Arizona 2
Seat #84: Tennessee 2
Seat #85: California 9
Seat #86: New York 5
Seat #87: Missouri 2
Seat #88: Florida 5
Seat #89: Maryland 2
Seat #90: Michigan 3
Seat #91: Wisconsin 2
Seat #92: Georgia 3
Seat #93: California 10
Seat #94: North Carolina 3
Seat #95: Texas 7
Seat #96: Minnesota 2
Seat #97: Illinois 4
Seat #98: Pennsylvania 4
Seat #99: New Jersey 3
Seat #100: Colorado 2
Seat #101: California 11
Seat #102: New York 6
Seat #103: Florida 6
Seat #104: Alabama 2
Seat #105: Texas 8
Seat #106: Ohio 4
Seat #107: South Carolina 2
Seat #108: Virginia 3
Seat #109: California 12
Seat #110: Louisiana 2
Seat #111: Kentucky 2
Seat #112: New York 7
Seat #113: California 13
Seat #114: Texas 9
Seat #115: Florida 7
Seat #116: Illinois 5
Seat #117: Michigan 4
Seat #118: Pennsylvania 5
Seat #119: Georgia 4
Seat #120: California 14
Seat #121: North Carolina 4
Seat #122: Washington 3
Seat #123: Oregon 2
Seat #124: Massachusetts 3
Seat #125: Oklahoma 2
Seat #126: Texas 10
Seat #127: Indiana 3
Seat #128: Arizona 3
Seat #129: Tennessee 3
Seat #130: New York 8
Seat #131: Ohio 5
Seat #132: California 15
Seat #133: New Jersey 4
Seat #134: Connecticut 2
Seat #135: Florida 8
Seat #136: Missouri 3
Seat #137: California 16
Seat #138: Texas 11
Seat #139: Maryland 3
Seat #140: Illinois 6
Seat #141: Wisconsin 3
Seat #142: Pennsylvania 6
Seat #143: Virginia 4
Seat #144: New York 9
Seat #145: California 17
Seat #146: Florida 9
Seat #147: Michigan 5
Seat #148: Texas 12
Seat #149: Georgia 5
Seat #150: Minnesota 3
Seat #151: Iowa 2
Seat #152: North Carolina 5
Seat #153: California 18
Seat #154: Ohio 6
Seat #155: Mississippi 2
Seat #156: Arkansas 2
Seat #157: Colorado 3
Seat #158: New York 10
Seat #159: Kansas 2
Seat #160: California 19
Seat #161: Texas 13
Seat #162: Florida 10
Seat #163: Illinois 7
Seat #164: New Jersey 5
Seat #165: Pennsylvania 7
Seat #166: Utah 2
Seat #167: Alabama 3
Seat #168: Washington 4
Seat #169: California 20
Seat #170: Nevada 2
Seat #171: Massachusetts 4
Seat #172: South Carolina 3
Seat #173: Indiana 4
Seat #174: Texas 14
Seat #175: Louisiana 3
Seat #176: New York 11
Seat #177: Arizona 4
Seat #178: Tennessee 4
Seat #179: California 21
Seat #180: Michigan 6
Seat #181: Florida 11
Seat #182: Virginia 5
Seat #183: Ohio 7
Seat #184: Kentucky 3
Seat #185: Georgia 6
Seat #186: North Carolina 6
Seat #187: Texas 15
Seat #188: California 22
Seat #189: Missouri 4
Seat #190: Illinois 8
Seat #191: Pennsylvania 8
Seat #192: New York 12
Seat #193: Maryland 4
Seat #194: California 23
Seat #195: Wisconsin 4
Seat #196: Florida 12
Seat #197: Texas 16
Seat #198: New Jersey 6
Seat #199: California 24
Seat #200: Oregon 3
Seat #201: New York 13
Seat #202: Ohio 8
Seat #203: Oklahoma 3
Seat #204: Minnesota 4
Seat #205: Michigan 7
Seat #206: Texas 17
Seat #207: California 25
Seat #208: Illinois 9
Seat #209: Florida 13
Seat #210: Washington 5
Seat #211: Pennsylvania 9
Seat #212: Georgia 7
Seat #213: North Carolina 7
Seat #214: Massachusetts 5
Seat #215: California 26
Seat #216: Virginia 6
Seat #217: Connecticut 3
Seat #218: New Mexico 2
Seat #219: Colorado 4
Seat #220: Indiana 5
Seat #221: Texas 18
Seat #222: New York 14
Seat #223: Arizona 5
Seat #224: Tennessee 5
Seat #225: California 27
Seat #226: Florida 14
Seat #227: Alabama 4
Seat #228: Texas 19
Seat #229: Ohio 9
Seat #230: New Jersey 7
Seat #231: California 28
Seat #232: Illinois 10
Seat #233: Missouri 5
Seat #234: Pennsylvania 10
Seat #235: New York 15
Seat #236: South Carolina 4
Seat #237: Michigan 8
Seat #238: West Virginia 2
Seat #239: Louisiana 4
Seat #240: California 29
Seat #241: Florida 15
Seat #242: Georgia 8
Seat #243: Nebraska 2
Seat #244: Maryland 5
Seat #245: Texas 20
Seat #246: North Carolina 8
Seat #247: Wisconsin 5
Seat #248: California 30
Seat #249: Kentucky 4
Seat #250: New York 16
Seat #251: Iowa 3
Seat #252: Virginia 7
Seat #253: Washington 6
Seat #254: Texas 21
Seat #255: Illinois 11
Seat #256: California 31
Seat #257: Ohio 10
Seat #258: Florida 16
Seat #259: Mississippi 3
Seat #260: Pennsylvania 11
Seat #261: Massachusetts 6
Seat #262: Arkansas 3
Seat #263: Minnesota 5
Seat #264: Indiana 6
Seat #265: California 32
Seat #266: New York 17
Seat #267: New Jersey 8
Seat #268: Texas 22
Seat #269: Arizona 6
Seat #270: Michigan 9
Seat #271: Kansas 3
Seat #272: Tennessee 6
Seat #273: California 33
Seat #274: Georgia 9
Seat #275: Florida 17
Seat #276: Utah 3
Seat #277: Colorado 5
Seat #278: North Carolina 9
Seat #279: Texas 23
Seat #280: Illinois 12
Seat #281: California 34
Seat #282: Idaho 2
Seat #283: New York 18
Seat #284: Oregon 4
Seat #285: Pennsylvania 12
Seat #286: Nevada 3
Seat #287: Ohio 11
Seat #288: Missouri 6
Seat #289: Oklahoma 4
Seat #290: California 35
Seat #291: Florida 18
Seat #292: Texas 24
Seat #293: Virginia 8
Seat #294: Alabama 5
Seat #295: Maryland 6
Seat #296: California 36
Seat #297: New York 19
Seat #298: Michigan 10
Seat #299: Wisconsin 6
Seat #300: Washington 7
Seat #301: New Jersey 9
Seat #302: South Carolina 5
Seat #303: Connecticut 4
Seat #304: Illinois 13
Seat #305: Texas 25
Seat #306: Georgia 10
Seat #307: California 37
Seat #308: Pennsylvania 13
Seat #309: Florida 19
Seat #310: Louisiana 5
Seat #311: Massachusetts 7
Seat #312: North Carolina 10
Seat #313: Ohio 12
Seat #314: Indiana 7
Seat #315: New York 20
Seat #316: California 38
Seat #317: Arizona 7
Seat #318: Texas 26
Seat #319: Tennessee 7
Seat #320: Kentucky 5
Seat #321: Minnesota 6
Seat #322: California 39
Seat #323: Florida 20
Seat #324: Hawaii 2
Seat #325: Illinois 14
Seat #326: Texas 27
Seat #327: New York 21
Seat #328: California 40
Seat #329: Virginia 9
Seat #330: Michigan 11
Seat #331: Pennsylvania 14
Seat #332: Maine 2
Seat #333: New Hampshire 2
Seat #334: New Jersey 10
Seat #335: Missouri 7
Seat #336: Georgia 11
Seat #337: Ohio 13
Seat #338: California 41
Seat #339: Colorado 6
Seat #340: Florida 21
Seat #341: Texas 28
Seat #342: North Carolina 11
Seat #343: New York 22
Seat #344: Washington 8
Seat #345: California 42
Seat #346: Maryland 7
Seat #347: Illinois 15
Seat #348: Texas 29
Seat #349: Iowa 4 (-1)
Seat #350: Wisconsin 7
Seat #351: California 43
Seat #352: Pennsylvania 15
Seat #353: Massachusetts 8
Seat #354: Florida 22
Seat #355: Alabama 6
Seat #356: Indiana 8
Seat #357: New York 23
Seat #358: Michigan 12
Seat #359: Oregon 5
Seat #360: Mississippi 4
Seat #361: California 44
Seat #362: Ohio 14
Seat #363: Arizona 8
Seat #364: Texas 30
Seat #365: Tennessee 8
Seat #366: South Carolina 6
Seat #367: Virginia 10
Seat #368: Georgia 12
Seat #369: Arkansas 4
Seat #370: New Mexico 3
Seat #371: Oklahoma 5
Seat #372: New Jersey 11
Seat #373: California 45
Seat #374: Florida 23
Seat #375: North Carolina 12
Seat #376: Illinois 16
Seat #377: Louisiana 6 (-1)
Seat #378: New York 24
Seat #379: Texas 31
Seat #380: Kansas 4
Seat #381: Pennsylvania 16
Seat #382: California 46
Seat #383: Minnesota 7
Seat #384: California 47
Seat #385: Missouri 8 (-1)
Seat #386: Florida 24
Seat #387: Connecticut 5
Seat #388: Texas 32
Seat #389: Utah 4 (+1)
Seat #390: Ohio 15
Seat #391: Washington 9
Seat #392: Kentucky 6
Seat #393: Michigan 13
Seat #394: New York 25
Seat #395: California 48
Seat #396: Nevada 4 (+1)
Seat #397: Illinois 17
Seat #398: Colorado 7
Seat #399: Georgia 13
Seat #400: Texas 33 (+1)
Seat #401: Massachusetts 9 (-1)
Seat #402: Maryland 8
Seat #403: Pennsylvania 17
Seat #404: California 49
Seat #405: Florida 25
Seat #406: New Jersey 12 (-1)
Seat #407: Indiana 9
Seat #408: North Carolina 13
Seat #409: Virginia 11
Seat #410: New York 26
Seat #411: Wisconsin 8
Seat #412: West Virginia 3
Seat #413: Arizona 9 (+1)
Seat #414: California 50
Seat #415: Texas 34 (+2)
Seat #416: Tennessee 9
Seat #417: Nebraska 3
Seat #418: Ohio 16 (-2)
Seat #419: Rhode Island 2
Seat #420: California 51
Seat #421: Alabama 7
Seat #422: Florida 26 (+1)
Seat #423: Illinois 18 (-1)
Seat #424: Michigan 14 (-1)
Seat #425: New York 27 (-2)
Seat #426: Texas 35 (+3)
Seat #427: Pennsylvania 18 (-1)
Seat #428: California 52
Seat #429: Georgia 14 (+1)
Seat #430: South Carolina 7 (+1)
Seat #431: California 53
Seat #432: Florida 27 (+2)
Seat #433: Washington 10 (+1)
Seat #434: Minnesota 8
Seat #435: Texas 36 (+4)

[LAST TEN SEATS:]

LAST TEN SEATS:
Seat #426: Texas 35 (+3)              Priority: 728,933
Seat #427: Pennsylvania 18 (-1)   Priority: 726,147
Seat #428: California 52 (-1)         Priority: 723,412
Seat #429: Georgia 14 (+1)           Priority: 718,097
Seat #430: South Carolina 7 (+1)  Priority: 713,709
Seat #431: California 53 (nc)         Priority: 709,631
Seat #432: Florida 27 (+2)            Priority: 709,610
Seat #433: Washington 10 (+1)   Priority: 708,829
Seat #434: Minnesota 8 (nc)         Priority: 708,767
Seat #435: Texas 36 (+4)             Priority: 708,396

NEXT TEN SEATS
Seat #436: North Carolina 14 (+1)  Priority: 706,817
Seat #437: Missouri 9 (nc)               Priority: 705,802
Seat #438: New York 28 (-1)           Priority: 704,775
Seat #439: New Jersey 13 (nc)       Priority: 703,915
Seat #440: Montana 2 (+1)             Priority: 699,622
Seat #441: Louisiana 7 (nc)            Priority: 699,514
Seat #442: Ohio 17 (-1)                  Priority: 699,503
Seat #443: Oregon 6 (+1)              Priority: 699,455
Seat #444: Virginia 12 (+1)            Priority: 696,400
Seat #445: California 54 (+1)         Priority: 696,366

Check out the data: http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/

Brutal!

Gotta get lunch, then I'll try to get some apportionment order and other info for y'all.

OHIO LOST 2

Illinois had a BETTER chance of keeping ALL its seats than Ohio had of losing only one.  My numbers had them getting seat #442 to go -1.

So three "errors" (AZ, NY, MO vs CA, FL, MN) but all in the top five, or is anything else wrong? Still makes Arizona the most surprising.

It depends on a lot of factors, like how much population movement there was in the past year, how much of it was unexpected, and so forth.  Also, my numbers were based solely on estimates, whereas the final results are an actual headcount (or as close to a headcount as we can come).

The estimates for Arizona and New York were obviously high.

Once I have solid numbers, I will let you know how many people each state needed for its next seat.  Between those last few seats, it will be really close.  A few thousand people, or maybe even under a thousand.

In 2000, UT was only a few hundred people away from getting the last seat, which went to NC instead.

OH -1 or -2? I thought it was -2.

I think it's two.

Yeah, AZ+1 is the most obviously surprising thing here.

Not that surprising to me.  By my estimated population numbers I had the LAST FIVE seats going as follows:


Arizona           10th    +2
New York        28th   -1
Washington    10th  +1
Texas              36th  +4
Missouri          9th  

The NEXT FIVE were as such:

California           53rd
Florida               27th +2
Minnesota         8th
North Carolina   14th +1
Oregon              6th +1

Wait... AZ+1 only, and FL+2 ?

And how the hell did Ohio lose only one seat !!!

I'll have the actual apportionment once I get real numbers.  I can also tell you how many more people each state needed to gain/keep a seat.

First time ever California didn't gain.

They were lucky not to lose a seat.

Regions. NY. 2.1%. MN 7.8%! 8 seats I assume.

It all depends on how CA, FL, MO, and TX do.  My numbers have those four, plus MN, duking it out for the final two seats.

NC and OR and also in the running.  We'll see when we get actual numbers.