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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2 on: Today at 12:12:47 am
This is what Phil's two cents are worth. Lol.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131443.0



LOL MUST ALWAYS BE WRONG THEN HAHA!

Aside from a few infamous predictions (and what you referenced wasn't even a prediction), I'm actually pretty accurate with my predictions. The vast moronic conspiracy against me seeks to drown out the truth though and sadly, it has been pretty successful around these parts. This is what you resort to when you can't refute my actual points.

You didn't make a valid point to refute. McConnell leading by only 2 in an R+13 state that has a lot of Democratic office holders statewide does not suggest he will win big, let alone win at all.

Right, the factors I mentioned just aren't proof of how a race can ultimately break quite clearly one way...
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2 on: July 28, 2014, 08:51:32 pm
Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

I'm not sure how you can believe it won't be close. Look at the numbers. I could see Grimes losing by 6 if it gets out of hand for her, but honestly this has been neck and neck and will continue to be so. The only reason Rand Paul got a relatively health double digit margin against a statewide officer is because Conway fumbled the ball so poorly.

All of the reason I stated above are reason enough to believe it won't be all that close. If Grimes can't end the Summer in the lead then I think everyone should really doubt it will close.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2 on: July 28, 2014, 08:14:31 pm
Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?

Around this point in 2010, Republicans lead by 3-6 points.

And '94?

Beats me, but it was relatively accurate in 2008, 2010, and 2012. That seems more relevant than an election from 2 decades ago from before poll aggregation became a thing.

And still ultimately meaningless. Guarantee Presidential approval is more indicative of the national mood than generic ballot.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2 on: July 28, 2014, 07:23:55 pm
Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?

Around this point in 2010, Republicans lead by 3-6 points.

And '94?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2 on: July 28, 2014, 07:17:26 pm
This is what Phil's two cents are worth. Lol.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131443.0



LOL MUST ALWAYS BE WRONG THEN HAHA!

Aside from a few infamous predictions (and what you referenced wasn't even a prediction), I'm actually pretty accurate with my predictions. The vast moronic conspiracy against me seeks to drown out the truth though and sadly, it has been pretty successful around these parts. This is what you resort to when you can't refute my actual points.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2 on: July 28, 2014, 07:14:54 pm
Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 28, 2014, 07:12:59 pm
My God, how ridiculously controlling does Inks sound? "Do as I say or you have problems." Not moderating must be driving him crazy.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2 on: July 28, 2014, 06:40:38 pm
Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 28, 2014, 05:39:13 pm
Jeff, what is the harm in seeing a mental health professional? If you're truly fine, as you insist, the doctor will simply confirm this. How could that possibly be a bad thing?

Uh, these things cost money, Inks. And money doesn't grow on...oh wait. Never mind.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Official 2014-15 Club Soccer/Football Discussion Thread on: July 28, 2014, 05:15:12 pm
Rome Derby and Napoli vs. Juventus in Round 18 meaning those will also be the second-to-last season matches. Amazing.
11  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Official 2014-15 Club Soccer/Football Discussion Thread on: July 28, 2014, 07:00:29 am
The Serie A schedule is released today.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 28, 2014, 06:53:23 am
Team Cody all the way, BushOK.

Not a bad pick.  I'm on Team Donny.  After him, I've got Jocasta and then Christine.

Oh man, I know you love pretty boys from New Jersey, Phil, but Cody is absolutely spineless. He looked like an absolute ***** for not putting up Caleb, just like he said he would. I could see Christine going far based on her alliances (and could even win if she flips just right), but I don't think Jocasta and Donny can last too much longer as pawns.

Personally, I like Nicole. She's not going to win, but I like her most as a person.

Excuse me! He's a Soccer player from my alma mater. Watch it.

And of course Our Dear Friend is a Donny fan (I am, too, though. As is everyone.).
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 27, 2014, 05:23:33 pm
Team Cody all the way, BushOK.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: YouGov/NY Times/CBS News polls of all states with Gov. races on: July 27, 2014, 03:10:50 pm
Wolf only up 13%? We got a pure toss up, folks.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 27, 2014, 09:05:13 am
I worked out what my regular daily calorie intake is... and you really need to be trying to get to 2300 calories.

Not if your meals primarily consist of frozen pizzas, bacon cheeseburgers and liters of coke.

Hey! That's Diet Coke to you, partner!
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 26, 2014, 06:39:51 pm
It's a relaxing Saturday evening in progress. I've got one more baseball game to watch tonight - Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals. I will do my laundry after the game is over at 21:00 with the hopes of being in bed by 00:00. I will be going back to Lynn Lane Baptist Church tomorrow morning with Sunday School at 9:15 and the Morning Worship Service at 10:30. I am planning a Walmart run for tomorrow afternoon after church. I'm also getting excited about going back to work on Monday for Week 4!!

It's like she never even existed...
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 26, 2014, 03:24:26 pm
Could this just be indigestion talking?
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Pope Francis confirms visit to Philadelphia in 2015. on: July 26, 2014, 03:21:30 pm
The news broke yesterday that His Holiness would attend the 2015 World Conference on Families in Philly. Very exciting! Smiley

http://m.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2014/07/25/pope-francis-confirms-philadelphia-visit-in.html?ana=e_phil_bn_breakingnews&u=JYT1lt4NgYfY7WE7oMhlwsgxUj&t=1406317403&r=full
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 26, 2014, 02:09:17 pm
Look on the bright side: in about two months, your Christmas tree will be up.

Probably mid-October again, so 2 1/2 months.

That late? Oh, my God, guys. He's already depressed.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 26, 2014, 02:05:49 pm
Look on the bright side: in about two months, your Christmas tree will be up.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVI: Sidejackin' it in the Train Room. on: July 26, 2014, 01:51:30 pm
Sad
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Montana on: July 26, 2014, 01:24:41 pm
Walsh by a hair.

Stop.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: have you ever fallen for a scam? on: July 25, 2014, 10:28:29 pm
I post here.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Landmark Communications: Nunn +4 on: July 25, 2014, 04:12:54 pm
Yeah, it's over. Safe Perdue.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Georgia? on: July 25, 2014, 07:01:40 am
Well, I'd chalk it up to an error but for the SOS to have it listed that way, it would be a pretty massive error. In my defense, though, several reputable sites have stated that the Senate runoff is in December and the Gubernatorial runoff is in January.

I've checked around online and I can't find a source that shows the opposite. My home county and another county are showing what the SoS is showing. It's also what the party and campaigns are conveying. If the SoS has made a typo that's led to this, then it'll the biggest election calendar flub of the century...

My point was that I'd normally consider it a mistake/typo but for something like this, it would be a rather massive mistake so I'm not chalking it up to an error especially when other sources (like Green Papers) are confirming the SoS. 

By the way, Politics1 has it listed as December or at least did as of two days ago. And maybe this isn't much of a defense but Politico (the site, not the former poster Wink ) mentioned the December runoff in a write up about Perdue vs. Nunn.
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