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51  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The surprises of the Gubernatorial elections... on: August 24, 2014, 05:27:44 pm
Don't expect many of these to happen, but just for fun:

Corbett will break 20% in Philadelphia County


He'd be easily re-elected if that happened...
52  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Any hope for Gov. Corbett? on: August 24, 2014, 12:58:20 pm
Schwartz did not win the nomination & PA governors usually win reelection. Those are good for the governor. It's not over yet in PA; the unemployment rate there will be a factor in the outcome.

Huh? Schwartz would have been a much weaker nominee against Corbett than Wolf.

Though Schwartz would have beaten him comfortably as well.

Really any Democrat could have, with the possible exception of Hanger and Litz.

To be honest I would have preferred McCord be the nominee to see all the fireworks that would ensue between him and Corbett at the Debates.

"Possible exception?" You think Hanger and Litz would probably beat Corbett comfortably?

Wow. This place makes me cry.
53  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Landmark: Nunn +7 on: August 24, 2014, 12:44:58 pm
An example: saying "Sarkozy will win reelection" and "I think/hope Sarkozy will win this" is not the same thing, and neither is "Bronwback may/is very likely to win" and "No way Brownback loses" Wink.

Oh, really? Thanks for the English lesson!

Quote
I'm sorry for talking about your Sarkozy winning prediction... It was just way too easy.

Well, I love my haters. They need the love. But I must say that the mocking over that prediction (which really wasn't far off especially when you consider how badly Sarkozy was down early on) is just silly.

You said he'd win, and he lost. I'll give you another English lesson: if you had said "I think Sarkozy can win" or "the race will be close, so don't write Sarko off" nobody would be mocking your prediction now.

And thinking I hate you is just silly.

Oh wow! I said someone would win and they lost? Oh no. Bet that has never happened to anyone else here!

The point is that we don't make fun of people for getting predictions wrong because literally every person here makes several wrong predictions each year. You make fun of really bad predictions and given how close that race turned out, it makes no sense to mock my Sarkozy victory prediction.

By the way, saying "I think Sarkozy will win" isn't a prediction. "Don't write him off" isn't a prediction. 
54  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who do you think is more strongly disliked in Kansas? on: August 24, 2014, 12:34:14 pm
Here's what I actually said:

"It wasn't meant to tell you about the Gubernatorial race. Well, other than combating the hackery that has run wild in that thread about how Obama and Brownback are basically disliked with the same intensity."

Let's focus on the last few words there: "basically disliked with the same intensity." That means some people were suggesting that the level of dislike for both was pretty close to even. 

Don't misquote me and expect to get away with it.

Now let's look at a comment from the poster known as IceSpear: "Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is."

The bolded text suggests that you believe the level of distaste for both might not be equal but would be pretty close to even. And almost no one here agrees with you. Again, get over it.

Except this poll isn't asking whether or not it would be close, it's simply asking who would be more disliked, which virtually everyone (including myself in that very thread) said would be Obama. Nice try.

But the comments here have laughed off the idea that it would be close. Your red avatar brethren have even said the hatred for Obama is more intense. I think I found who is being purposely obtuse here...

Quote
Besides, "close" is a relative term. For example, Santorum losing by 18 points in a state like PA is a complete thrashing and landslide. Now, if Santorum lost by only 18 points in a state like Vermont, that would be "relatively close" considering the circumstances. I even elaborated later that I meant close in a relative sense, which you chose to ignore.

Roll Eyes

Ok, pal.
55  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Official 2014-15 Club Soccer/Football Discussion Thread on: August 24, 2014, 12:18:24 pm
Let's get Moyes back as United coach!
56  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who do you think is more strongly disliked in Kansas? on: August 23, 2014, 03:53:05 pm
Here's what I actually said:

"It wasn't meant to tell you about the Gubernatorial race. Well, other than combating the hackery that has run wild in that thread about how Obama and Brownback are basically disliked with the same intensity."

Let's focus on the last few words there: "basically disliked with the same intensity." That means some people were suggesting that the level of dislike for both was pretty close to even. 

Don't misquote me and expect to get away with it.

Now let's look at a comment from the poster known as IceSpear: "Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is."

The bolded text suggests that you believe the level of distaste for both might not be equal but would be pretty close to even. And almost no one here agrees with you. Again, get over it.
57  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Official 2014-15 Club Soccer/Football Discussion Thread on: August 23, 2014, 02:19:07 pm
I'd be happy if the glorious Athletic de Bilbao knocks out Napoli. They crushed Man United in Old Trafford not so long ago. Besides, I don't like Rafa Benítez.

Get out of here, troll.
58  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Official 2014-15 Club Soccer/Football Discussion Thread on: August 23, 2014, 01:59:06 pm
Go to hell, Lief. Go to hell, Arsenal. Should have known that would happen.
59  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Official 2014-15 Club Soccer/Football Discussion Thread on: August 23, 2014, 12:16:21 pm
ArsenaLOL!

One week until the best league begins, by the way.
60  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Landmark: Nunn +7 on: August 23, 2014, 12:12:19 pm
An example: saying "Sarkozy will win reelection" and "I think/hope Sarkozy will win this" is not the same thing, and neither is "Bronwback may/is very likely to win" and "No way Brownback loses" Wink.

Oh, really? Thanks for the English lesson!

Quote
I'm sorry for talking about your Sarkozy winning prediction... It was just way too easy.

Well, I love my haters. They need the love. But I must say that the mocking over that prediction (which really wasn't far off especially when you consider how badly Sarkozy was down early on) is just silly.
61  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Landmark: Nunn +7 on: August 23, 2014, 11:33:30 am
Julio thinks Dems around here don't disregard polls more frequently than Republicans? Bwahaha.
62  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Any hope for Gov. Corbett? on: August 23, 2014, 08:33:48 am
I know this will be fodder for plenty of jokes and a reminder of the infamous "It's not over yet..." thread (especially since the lead consultant for Corbett is Santorum's consultant) but there's supposedly a Corbett internal showing him only down four.
keystone.txt

Again, simply passing along word of the poll without an ounce of editorializing so give me a break.
Methinks somebody skipped the part in English class where they talked about implication.

I come here (and the main thread) to post and discuss news which often centers around polling. I really wasn't implying anything but if there was any hint of implication, you can read from my comment that I didn't expect the poll to be taken seriously at all.
63  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who do you think is more strongly disliked in Kansas? on: August 22, 2014, 04:25:17 pm
This poll is dumb and tells us nothing about the Kansas gubernatorial race. Nice try, Keystone.

It wasn't meant to tell you about the Gubernatorial race. Well, other than combating the hackery that has run wild in that thread about how Obama and Brownback are basically disliked with the same intensity.

I'm curious about the real numbers for that. Might be a question worth asking in their next poll.

Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is.

A "small lead" for Obama. In a safe GOP state, you really think Brownback is that viciously hated that Obama would only have a "small lead" in the "Disliked More" category. Oh man.

P.S. - Bush wasn't on the ballot in 2006. Obama wasn't on the ballot in 2010.

Uh, yes? Maybe not small overall, but small relative to what one would expect. It wouldn't take very many "crossovers" to keep it within single digits, for instance.

The fact that this thread was started based on a comment nobody made is pretty funny.

I said "Obama and Brownback aren't equally hated." Sawx said he'd like to see the numbers on that. That led me to asking what the Forum thinks. Poor attempt at a "Gotcha!," Icespear.

I said I think Obama would have a smaller than expected lead. As far as I can tell, Sawx never said what he thought the result would be, just that it would be an interesting question to ask. So you're attacking a strawman here.

Let me repeat: Sawx said he was curious about the result. I never said what he thought the result would be. I wanted the Forum's take. I made a poll. Please, get over it.
64  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who do you think is more strongly disliked in Kansas? on: August 22, 2014, 07:03:32 am
This poll is dumb and tells us nothing about the Kansas gubernatorial race. Nice try, Keystone.

It wasn't meant to tell you about the Gubernatorial race. Well, other than combating the hackery that has run wild in that thread about how Obama and Brownback are basically disliked with the same intensity.

I'm curious about the real numbers for that. Might be a question worth asking in their next poll.

Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is.

A "small lead" for Obama. In a safe GOP state, you really think Brownback is that viciously hated that Obama would only have a "small lead" in the "Disliked More" category. Oh man.

P.S. - Bush wasn't on the ballot in 2006. Obama wasn't on the ballot in 2010.

Uh, yes? Maybe not small overall, but small relative to what one would expect. It wouldn't take very many "crossovers" to keep it within single digits, for instance.

The fact that this thread was started based on a comment nobody made is pretty funny.

I said "Obama and Brownback aren't equally hated." Sawx said he'd like to see the numbers on that. That led me to asking what the Forum thinks. Poor attempt at a "Gotcha!," Icespear.
65  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Any hope for Gov. Corbett? on: August 22, 2014, 06:58:34 am
I know this will be fodder for plenty of jokes and a reminder of the infamous "It's not over yet..." thread (especially since the lead consultant for Corbett is Santorum's consultant) but there's supposedly a Corbett internal showing him only down four.
keystone.txt

Again, simply passing along word of the poll without an ounce of editorializing so give me a break.
66  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Any hope for Gov. Corbett? on: August 21, 2014, 09:41:52 pm
Just reporting what I heard, folks. That is all.
67  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who do you think is more strongly disliked in Kansas? on: August 21, 2014, 09:41:01 pm
Brownback is more disliked because he's had an actual negative effect on people's lives, while Obama has had an actual positive effect through Obamacare/Medicade expansion, improved economic conditions and smarter use of military powers abroad.

Right. I'm sure that's exactly how most Americans, and especially Kansans, see it!
68  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who do you think is more strongly disliked in Kansas? on: August 21, 2014, 07:58:27 pm
This poll is dumb and tells us nothing about the Kansas gubernatorial race. Nice try, Keystone.

It wasn't meant to tell you about the Gubernatorial race. Well, other than combating the hackery that has run wild in that thread about how Obama and Brownback are basically disliked with the same intensity.
69  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: PA: Any hope for Gov. Corbett? on: August 21, 2014, 07:55:13 pm
I know this will be fodder for plenty of jokes and a reminder of the infamous "It's not over yet..." thread (especially since the lead consultant for Corbett is Santorum's consultant) but there's supposedly a Corbett internal showing him only down four.
70  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback on: August 21, 2014, 07:38:39 pm
Stop acting like it's late October and Davis has led in every poll of the real election season. Your disingenuousness is frustrating.

Oh please. You'd call someone a Dem hack if they said Quinn would win easily using the same logic.

No, I'd call them that because they'd be wrong.

Okay, what makes the Quinn and Brownback situations different then? Both are bad governors with bad approval ratings around the same percentages. Both are consistently down in polls by similar margins to their strong-but-not-superb general election challengers, but both aren't completely dead due to the partisan leanings of their states. And finally, hacks from both parties insist they will win Smiley

And don't use precedent of Republican Governors if Illinois, because if I used Sebelius as precedent in Kansas you would (justifiably) laugh at me.

I've explained this now about three times: GOP enthusiasm in a safe GOP state carries GOP Governor to victory. Dems are not half as motivated this year to drag their scandal-plagued Governor with far more baggage across the finish line in Illinois.

Give me a shout about seven posts from now when I have to explain it again.
71  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback on: August 21, 2014, 06:47:18 pm
Stop acting like it's late October and Davis has led in every poll of the real election season. Your disingenuousness is frustrating.

Oh please. You'd call someone a Dem hack if they said Quinn would win easily using the same logic.

No, I'd call them that because they'd be wrong.
72  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Which Batman director is your favorite? on: August 21, 2014, 05:59:09 pm
Lambert Hillyer
73  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Ask R2D2 (this should be fun) on: August 21, 2014, 05:09:10 pm
How quickly can the Moderators kindly lock this thread?
74  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback on: August 21, 2014, 05:08:07 pm
Stop acting like it's late October and Davis has led in every poll of the real election season. Your disingenuousness is frustrating.
75  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback on: August 21, 2014, 04:58:53 pm
Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:
Quote
Al, the only PA Dem that could beat Santorum is Casey. That's it. Maybe Holden but other than that, Santorum will keep the seat. Casey has dismissed the idea of a run several times now. The Dems won't win here. However, if you'd like to take money out of VA and MO races to focus on PA, that's fine with me. All you'll be doing is wasting your money.
He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state Tongue.

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure his official prediction (as in, right before the election) was that Santorum would beat Casey, something that was obviously not going to happen, and it wasn't even close. And saying "Brownback will lead by October, get a grip" is not a reasonable or articulate point.

Not a "reasonable" point? He's down by two in a PPP poll, for Christ's sake. You seriously believe it's unreasonable for him to be ahead by October in Kansas? You said something earlier about someone being sad and pathetic but I think you had the target of the comment wrong...

2 in PPP with the libertarian, 5 in PPP's head to head without the libertarian, 8 in SurveyUSA, and 10 in Rasmussen.

Oh, now they want to count Rasmussen! Roll Eyes

Regardless, that and SurveyUSA were taken before the Great Boom-back.
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